Date Archives March 2012

QB Russell Wilson: Undersized-Underrated

Russell Wilson is short by NFL QB standards but matched with the right offense, there is a place for him in the league. Photo by Seth Youngblood.

Author’s Note: For a far more intricate analysis of Wilson at N.C. State throwing under pressure that also features analysis of Drew Brees in comparison, read my Football Outsider’s Future’s Column “Studying The Asterisk”

One of the bigger questions about Wisconsin QB Russell Wilson will be his height. Measured at 5107, 204 lbs., Wilson will be one of the smaller quarterbacks in the NFL. Journeyman Doug Flutie was a legit 5’9″, fellow journeyman Jeff Blake might have been 6’0″. The common knock on quarterbacks under 6’2″ is that they will have difficulty playing from the pocket because they won’t be able to see over the line of scrimmage and they’ll have a higher rate of deflected passes.

Certainly a quarterback under 6’2″ has to bring an extra dimension to the table. Michael Vick brings speed, agility, and a fantastic arm. Drew Brees brings uncanny accuracy, anticipation, and athleticism. Height doesn’t worry me, but the corresponding weight does. You don’t see any sub-6’2″ quarterbacks packing 225-230 lbs. and as QB-friendly the NFL rules have become, it’s still a punishing sport.

However, Wilson’s athleticism makes him an intriguing prospect. Continue reading

Q&A w/Chron.com’s Texans Chick Steph Stradley

Will the Texans draft a complement for Andre Johnson or his eventual replacement? Steph Stradley and talk Texans draft on her Houston Chronicle blog.

Steph Stradley, who is known as the Texans Chick, has an excellent blog on The Houston Chronicle’s web site. We took some time to do a Q&A about the Texans draft. Here’s an except below and a link to the rest:

. . . In any event, just as I love talking Texans football, Matt loves talking draft. My kind of people.

Our Discussion Below:

Steph: Everybody is talking Texans and wide receiver. Things I think that the Texans may value for their wide receivers over some other teams in no particular are:

1. Special teams ability and speed for same (very key for WR and corners. If they can’t get on field right away as starter, they want as special teams return option because Kubiak hates specialists).

2. Captain, leadership, love of football, good lockerroom guy, bright, hardworking, can pick up details of playbook quickly (applies to all positions on the field).

3. Route running

4. Hands

5. Blocking (this may translate into size–they like being able to run out of formations that usually signal pass but they can block with a WR players typically blocked by TEs).

6. From Texas/southern. Guys who may want to stay in this part of the world after their first contract. Can deal with heat.

I think they may take a big WR and a slot special teams sort of guy. I also think that their draft board tends to look very different than consensus Kiper boards. So I’m looking for some unconventional choices too. Think they are perpetually chasing the modern Rod Smith–a value who can take advantage of the offensive scheme.

Question 1: With these items in mind, which wide receivers might the Texans target at or near the bottom of the first round?

Matt: “A lot of the better NFL receivers of the past 10-15 years have remained productive well into their mid-thirties so I’m not concerned about Andre Johnson’s immediate future. So when I listen you’re run-down of what you believe the Texans want from their receivers I think you’re on the money. It means the team is likely seeking a flanker (Z receiver) to complement Johnson, but has the vertical prowess to take over Johnson’s role as the X.

The receivers projected to go in the 1st-2nd round after Kendall Wright and Justin Blackmon include Notre Dame’s Michael Floyd, LSU’s Reuben Randle, Rutgers’ Mohamed Sanu, and Georgia Tech’s Stephen Hill.

Neither Blackmon nor Sanu are vertical threats – they will never become X receivers. But they are physical, glue-fingered flankers that can get yardage after the catch and return kicks. Blackmon is the better route runner, but (read the rest of the Q&A here) . . .

Creating Bad Luck

Even the best prospects make mistakes. Sometimes it's the type of mistakes they make that elevate them from the pack. Photo by Michael Li.

Note: The posts of 2012 Draft Prospects this month are brief examples of plays that highlight specific skills and/or deficiencies of a player. They are not meant to draw overall conclusions of that player’s pro potential. For a thorough analysis of these prospects – and over 150 others – purchase the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio, available through a link at this site on April, 1.

Yesterday, I featured a play where Robert Griffin III reacts poorly to pressure. Today, Andrew Luck gets the same treatment. However, I believe there’s a difference between the types of mistakes that I showed with Griffin and the two I’ll show today with Luck. Griffin’s opponent tipped its hand before the snap and the Baylor quarterback missed a relatively easy read. In contrast, Luck’s opponent uses a more complex scheme and hides it before the snap like a stone-faced killer. Luck still makes mistakes, but the errors are against a more advanced concept with stronger execution. Continue reading

RGIII: Tick, Tick, Tick, Tick . . .

Even a great prospect like Robert Griffin III will experience growing pains in the NFL. Some of that might come from playing too fast. Photo by Mike Davis.

Explosive (– noun): a reactive substance that contains a great amount of potential energy that can produce an explosion if released suddenly, usually accompanied by the production of light, heat, sound, and pressure. Examples include TNT, C-4, and RGIII.

Not that I’m an expert at explosives, but it only takes a childhood of movies to know that the difference between them working for you or against you is timing. There’s a reason why quarterbacks are known as trigger men. They hold the detonator in the passing game. The quarterback’s internal clock is often the difference between an explosive offensive play and an explosive defensive play.

Another integral factor is how a quarterback cares for that explosive material. There’s a line as thin as a fuse when it comes to managing pressure in the pocket, but the differences are dramatic: Quick-thinking and harried. Aggressive and reckless. Tough and masochistic.

Robert Griffin III is fast in mind and body. His speed makes him capable of feats that put jaws on the floor – teammates, opponents, and fans alike. However Continue reading

Lloydesque Sleeper: ECU WR Lance Lewis

[youtube=http://youtu.be/YaVwVL2wYuw]

(Warning, soundtrack not safe for work):

Brandon Lloyd was the subject of the second football-related article I ever wrote. This was two years before I launched the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Lloyd was a fourth-round pick in his second year with the 49ers and he was beginning to make plays like the ones above.

I have always believed Lloyd was a special player with a high football IQ, flypaper hands and a skill for adjusting his body to the ball that makes one wonder if there really is a Matrix. Only Larry Fitzgerald rivals Lloyd when it comes to this aspect of playing the receiver position at the highest level.

Recently, I came across two college prospects that flash certain skills where they look almost identical to a current NFL star. One of them is Continue reading

Reads Listens Views 3/2/2012

Hurricanes QB Jacory Harris had an uneven college career and Miami, but he did play in a pro style offense and his arm strength is pretty good. Accuracy? The hips tell the story, see below. Photo by Greg Hartmann.

For more analysis like this at every skill position, purchase the Rookie Scouting Portfolio available here on April 1, 2012.

For past issues (2006-2011) email me: mattwaldmanrsp@gmail.com

Friday’s Quick-Hitter: Miami QB Jacory Harris’ Delivery

Here are two glaring examples of a mechanical flaw in a quarterback’s delivery that contributes to inaccurate passing. Continue reading

Vertical Goodness: Stephen Hill

Calvin Johnson was a better prospect than Stephen Hill, but the 2012 Combine Stud has the fundamentals to become a dangerous X receiver.

Because I’m tired of picking on Stephen Hill…

I’ve been critical of the Georgia Tech receiver all week, but I’ve also been saying that the star of the Combine is more than just a gold medal winner 2012’s Underwear Olympics at Lucas Oil Stadium. Hill is a legit prospect with NFL starter upside. Although I’ve spent several pages analyzing what Hill doesn’t do, one play can encompass most of his strengths. On the surface, one good play to several not so good ones might seem heavily weighted to the negative. However, there are certain talents that don’t require lengthy analysis to value. Continue reading