Date Archives December 2012

Walk on The Wildside: Notes From the RSP Bunker

Can you guess a person's native state by his name? Apparently my wife could with Cordarrelle Patterson. Happy New Year (photo by Nashville Corps).
Can you guess a person’s native state by his name? Apparently my wife could with Cordarrelle Patterson. Happy New Year (photo by Nashville Corps).

It’s been a productive summer and fall at the RSP Film Room. I am closing in on finishing  play-by-play evaluations of 130 different skill position players as my winter vacation is ending and I thought I’d provide a few highlights of what I’ve seen this week. Most of this is lighthearted analysis in three short segments: My Readers Are Smart…But My Wife Might Be Smarter; Duke Johnson: Signs of a Waldman Family Apocalypse; and Big Nasty.

My Readers Are Smart…

I love when I write about one player and I get numerous questions about a different one. This happened with my analysis of Justin Hunter. The Tennessee wide receiver is a freakish talent, but potentially one of the riskiest players at the top of this draft class because of poor habits on both the practice field and on game day. My readers continued to ask me about his teammate Cordarrelle Patterson. I knew I’d eventually get to Patterson but I waited for my vacation because I figured I was going to see something fun and when I enjoy watching a player, I get so pumped up that I have trouble sleeping if I’m studying games at night. Patterson hasn’t disappointed:

[youtube=https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=hIZwwkdSjiY#t=72s]

His 44-yard run after the catch for a 58-yard gain was just one of many like it. In fact, I wonder if Patterson’s terrific instincts and vision in the open field are making Hunter try to do the same things – and fail miserably at it. Hunter is so gifted, I sometimes think he’s trying to mimic his teammate and is in denial that he can’t match Patterson.

But My Wife Might Be Smarter.

The best highlight of the night was probably what happened after my wife walked into the office, saw Patterson make this run, and asked me his name. When I told her, she said that with a name like that he’s probably from South Carolina.  Sure enough, Rock Hill, S.C.  

I had to test her further.

“How about Stepfret Williams?”

“Definitely, from the South.”

“Well yeah, but what state?”

“Probably the South a lot of folks up North are scared about – rural Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana.”

Yep, Louisiana. If this were a game at a fair, we would have enough giant stuffed animals to start an E-Bay business if we weren’t banned from the theme park altogether.

Duke Johnson: Signs of a Waldman Family Paradox 

My wife went to school at UNC Chapel Hill.  According to her, I have to say the Chapel Hill part or else I’m not qualifying it correctly. A native North Carolinian is particular about their UNCs. When I’m feeling like getting a rise out of her I bring up the Tar Hell-Blue Devil rivalry and it’s the only time I get threats about divorce. [Editor’s Note: This was a complete Freudian slip on my part. It is “Tar Heel.” Unless of course, you’re a Dukie.]

“Alicia, what if one of our kids wants to go to Duke?”

“No kid of ours will ever go to Duke. Why are you even asking me such a stupid question?”

“Wait a minute, you mean to tell me that if one of our kids earned a scholarship to Duke, they couldn’t go?”

“Again, this is a dumb-ass question. Our kids will know that Duke is kidding itself when it says it’s the Harvard of the South. Who says that? Harvard is Harvard. Stop. It’s over. You haven’t gotten in. If you have to describe yourself on the back of another school then you know what’s really going on there.”

“So what if our kid earned a basketball scholarship to Duke?”

“Our kid will earn an academic scholarship and will be smart enough to realize that most Duke ball players wind up playing in Europe.”

“What if our kid chooses Duke because there is a specific program that few other schools of its quality offer?”

“Then you’re gonna have to move out and live in Durham with them in an apartment and you ain’t comin’ back home, that’s for sure.”

With lines drawn like these, it stands to reason that the only “Duke” that I can mention in the house without risking a night on the couch is the one who shares my wife’s maiden name and plays at my first university – Miami. Even so, when I invoke his name she gets a look on her face like I named a kid Hitler Rosenberg, or Hashtag Smith.   If you haven’t seen the freshman running back, check out these two touchdown runs against Boston College. You’ll be hearing a lot about this ACC Freshman of The Year soon enough.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/7VGs_szTbwo]

Johnson reminds me of that old East Carolina Johnson. Perhaps not as fast, but the new Miami version has even better balance.

Big Nasty

The tight end class might be the gem of the skill positions in the 2013 draft. Cincinnati Travis Kelce is one of many impressive prospects I’ve watched this year, including this weekend. He’s one of the best blockers I’ve seen at the position and because Cincinnati runs a pistol offense, Kelce plays the H-Back role to perfection. His dimensions are Gronkowski-like and he’s a big, aggressive, and nasty run blocker. He also has fluid athleticism and at 265 pounds, you don’t see a tight end move like this unless he has starter potential in the NFL.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/nBIK_P5c6c4]

I know the Washington Redskins have Fred Davis, but as I mentioned to my Football Outsiders cohorts this weekend, if Washington wants to find a player who can take over if Davis’ Achilles tear doesn’t recover sufficiently, or he opts to sue himself and represent both parties in a court of law, Kelce would be a fantastic fit for Robert Griffin. Then the “Shanaclan,” – as my buddy Bloom calls Mike and Kyle – can end the Niles Paul-tight end experiment and keep him as a receiver and kick return specialist.

Happy New Year!

The Rookie Scouting Portfolio Publication: A Q&A

New to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog? Haven’t heard of the RSP publication? Heard of it, but haven’t given it a try? Learn more about this annual publication that has been available for download every April 1 for the past seven years and why it has become a fave among draftniks and fantasy football owners.

BTW – Best pre-draft scouting report on every conceivable guy [at the skills positions] is by @MattWaldman. Very good read – mattwaldman.com

Chris Brown, author of Smartfootball.com and Grantland contributor, via Twitter

Q: What is the purpose of the RSP?

The RSP isn’t a draft-prediction publication, it’s an analysis of talent based on a player performance on the field.  This can help draftniks learn more about the talent of players without worrying about the machinations of the draft that are often an entirely different animal from talent evaluation. The evaluation techniques for the RSP are designed to target a player’s athletic skills, positional techniques, and conceptual understanding of the game. It also makes a great resource for fantasy football players.

Q: What makes the RSP different from other draft analysis?

I use an extensively documented process and I make the work available for the reader to see – although I don’t send them through a forced death march through the material. As a reader, you don’t have to feel the pain I had writing it – the masochism is provided at your convenience.

Still, the process is important to talk about. It has helped me arrive at high pre-draft grades for many underrated players, including Russell Wilson, Matt Forte, Ahmad Bradshaw, Dennis Pitta, Arian Foster and Joseph Addai. Where it really makes a difference is when I’m studying a player in a game where the competition limits a player’s statistical success and I’m still able to see the talent shine through. Likewise, this process has helped me spot critical issues with players like Stephen Hill, Isaiah Pead, Matt Leinart, Robert Meachem, and C.J. Spiller when others anticipated an early, and often immediate, impact.  

Q: The RSP is huge, but you say it is easy to read and navigate. How is it structure? Is it iPad-friendly?

The easiest way to describe the RSP is that it’s an online publication with two main parts:

  • The front part most people read, which is the same length of any draft magazine you see at the newsstand.
  • The back part that my craziest, most devoted, and masochistic readers check out – all the play-by-play analysis of every player I watch.

The RSP has a menu that allows you to jump to various parts of the publication so the crazy detail in the back doesn’t swallow you whole and you never return to reality. I continue to provide the back part because many of my readers love to know that I back up my analysis with painstaking work. In that sense they are also sadists, but being the ultimate masochist that I am – I appreciate their sadism.

“The GoodReader app takes anything I want to read in PDF form, presents it very nicely, and makes the document portable and enjoyable. The encyclopedia that you’ve created (which I absolutely love 25% into it) would require someone to peer into his or her computer/laptop screen for a very long time. On an iPad inside that app it bookmarks your place and makes reading long files a joy…AND PORTABLE.”

-Ray Calder

Q: How is The Rookie Scouting Portfolio rooted in best practices?

I managed a large branch of a call center and eventually had responsibility for the performance evaluation of over 70 call centers around the U.S. I began my career from the bottom-up. I was heavily involved in recruiting, hiring, training, and developing large and small teams of employees.I often had to build large teams that competed with a client’s internal call enter and with a fraction of the budget to train and develop in terms of time and money.

We beat them consistently.

One of the biggest reasons was a focus on instituting quality processes. We figured out what was important to us, how to prioritize it’s importance, and how to evaluate our employs in a fair, consistent, and flexible manner to spot the good and bad. Eventually, my company sent me to an organization that provided training for best-practice performance techniques that successful Fortune 500 businesses tailored to their service and manufacturing sectors.

The most important thing I learned that applies to the RSP is best practices for monitoring performance. Although the original purpose for my training was to monitor representatives talking with customers over the phone, these techniques also made sense to apply to personnel evaluation in other ways. Football is one of them.

Think the NFL couldn’t use a best-practice approach? Read about its current evaluation system and what former scouts have to say about the management of that process and you’ll think differently. The RSP approach makes the evaluation process transparent to the reader and helps the author deliver quality analysis.

Another “best practice” I’m implementing in 2012 is “giving back.” Ten percent of each sale in 2012 is going to charity.

Q: What do readers think of the RSP?

I collect these emails like one of my favorite pizza joints in Colorado collects napkin drawings from customers and places them all over the walls of its restaurant. If you have one you want to send me, please feel free. I’ll add them my list. Here are some of them below:

“If you don’t buy the RSP, be prepared to get dominated in your rookie draft by someone that did.”

– Jarrett Behar, Staff writer for Dynasty League Football and creator of Race to the Bottom.

“In complete awe of the 2007 Rookie Scouting Portfolio via @MattWaldman — Incredibly in-depth analysis that required time & football smarts”

– Ryan Lownes, NFL Draft analyst, writer or DraftBreakdown.com.

“Any diehard #Dynasty #fantasyfootball fan should go get @MattWaldman’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio bit.ly/I4fOa2 You’ll thank me later”

-@JamesFFB NFL Draft analyst, enthusiast, and writer for DraftBreakdown.com and Bleacher Report.

“For someone like me who doesn’t closely follow the college game, there is nothing I have found even vaguely measuring up to your thoroughness and point by point analysis of the draftable rookies. Among my favorite things is that at the core you rely on play rather than comparing stats produced or combine numbers. Measurables I can get anywhere, but numbers offer little perspective on what they mean or what factors together created them. I want to know what a guy looks like out there, who plays fast – rather than who runs fast in shorts with no one to dodge or avoid. Which WRs can and can’t run routes or consistently get separation or catch with their hands or fight off defenders to make contested catches. Your exhaustive package gives me a basis to work from including a careful look at every significant player. I can read and add the views and comments and stats I want to like ornaments on the Christmas tree – where that tree is the foundation of player abilities that you weave together into a ranked whole.

I have no way to know how right or wrong your conclusions are. You certainly don’t shy away from controversial evaluations. But overall, for just plain understanding of who the rookies are, how they play and what we might expect in the NFL – I don’t know of anything close. After reading this tome, I would feel blind and naked walking into a rookie draft next year without having that insight. My huge thanks!”

Catbird, Footballguys.com message boards

“Love your work. I’ve subscribed to your RSP for the past 3 years and it is my bible for dynasty league rookie drafts.”

– David Liu

“In our business, we are able to access many different types of reference materials. The Rookie Scouting Portfolio stands above the rest for one simple fact: it is more comprehensive than anything else I have seen. Matt Waldman is head and shoulders the best fantasy football expert I have had on the air, and his expertise starts well before the players get to the NFL with analysis and game film study of the incoming rookie class. I can’t recommend the RSP highly enough.”

– Ian Furness
Host, Sports Radio 950 KJR
Seattle, WA

“All I can really say at first is “Wow!” There is just a TON of great and useful information packed into that report. I thought I’d give it a quick glance during my lunch hour and I found myself reading quite a bit of it over the next 2 hours. I like the way everything is laid out. It’s easy to understand and covers all the items necessary to make it a top notch scouting report for the fantasy footballer.

– Tim Huckaby

“IMHO this is a MUST read. Matt really does the work and tells it the way he sees it. Had a couple of GREAT picks this year with Austin Collie and and I think Stafford. In prior years, he has lead me to Ray Rice in a PPR no less and Mike Sims Walker… If you are like me in a Zealots league, go back and read the prior years as it helps with the RFA/UFA process.”

– Tony Madeira

Hey Matt,

Just thought you would want to know that I enjoyed the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio so much that I had to buy the other six years, to see what you had to say about previous players. I’ve been playing fantasy football for over 20 years (started at age 11) and I can’t tell you how refreshing it is to see someone put this much effort into analyzing prospects skills, and then filtering that info back to their potential fantasy value.

Not sure if you have a running testimonial page but if your ever inclined to do so, feel free to use this email as one, if you wish.

Not trying to kiss your butt or anything but your work is really an inspiration for someone like myself.

Thank you for your efforts,

Sean Douglas, FantasyInfo.com’

Download the 2012 RSP or purchase past issues (2006-2011)

 

Under the Radar: ECU RB Reggie Bullock

Do you know this guy? Then perhaps you should learn about ECU RB Reggie Bullock. Photo by Beth Hart.
Do you know this guy? Then perhaps you should learn about ECU RB Reggie Bullock (Photo by Beth Hart).

Las Vegas native Reggie Bullock was good enough as a high school running back for Alabama, LSU, Florida, Florida State, and Oregon to court him. Academics forced Bullock to opt for Arizona Western, where he earned consecutive 1000-yard seasons, earning the 2010 National JUCO Player of The Year Award. Why is Bullock not on most lists as a viable NFL prospect? Read on.

There are a few numbers that explain why Reggie Bullock is under the radar for the 2013 NFL Draft. One of them is 815-10, the number of rushing yards and touchdowns that the East Carolina transfer has during his final two years of college football. The other pair of numbers is 5’9″ and 178 – a height and weight that few NFL running backs have.

Noel Devine anyone? 

I want to say “don’t go there,” but it’s not that simple. Bullock is a different kind of back than the West Virginia runner. Yet, it was size concerns that prompted the Senior Bowl coaching staff to exclude Devine from pass protection drills. Bullock’s physical dimensions will also get called into question, especially after he gutted-out a deep thigh bruise during a 2011 contest against Navy that cost him the rest of the season and, due to the freakish nature of the injury, also could have cost him his leg. By the time Bullock was healthy enough to play, the Pirates were content to roll with Vintavious Cooper, a 1000-yard back in his own right.

Bullock won’t be on the radar of many NFL teams because of his dimensions, but a spread-friendly organization would be smart to do its research because unlike Devine, Bullock can pass protect. Unlike Devine, Bullock looks like a true 178 and not the sub-170 Devine was at the Senior Bowl weigh-ins two years ago. And unlike Devine, Bullock is a more refined down hill runner. Danny Woodhead, Dexter McCluster, LaMichael James, Darren Sproles, and LaRod Stephens-Howling are better points of comparison along the spectrum of small, versatile backs.

I think if Bullock earns enough of a chance to demonstrate some of the things in an NFL camp that I’ve seen him do against Louisiana-Lafayette in this year’s New Orleans Bowl, he could surprise. The odds are slimmer for undrafted free agents, which I expect Bullock to be in May, but the right team at the right time could make all the difference. Two skills that Bullock has that could make that difference is his downhill mentality as a runner and his pass protection skills.

Bullock Between the Tackles

BullockA1

Bullock had 17 carries for 104 yards and 2 touchdowns against ULL because he provided the Pirates a spark and the team opted to ride him in this bowl game. One of these plays was a 1st-and-10 run of 13 yards from a 3×1-receiver, 11 personnel shotgun set with 6:05 in the third quarter. The right guard and center double-team the defensive tackle to the inside and the left guard and left tackle double-team the defensive end to open a hole between the two defenders.

BullockA2

Bullock hits the hole with authority. While it’s not as small of a crease as it appears from this angle, the senior running back repeatedly demonstrates skill with pressing lanes and cutting back through smaller openings than backs with a penchant to take runs to the corner store. Bullock’s running indicates to me that he understands why decisive running with good technique is even more important for a back with his size limitations.

BullockA3

Bullock bursts through the crease with authority and beats the edge defender through the hole for a quick six yards. This is expected of a player with Bullock’s physical skills. What’s unexpected is his balance and downhill mentality in the later stages of the run where many smaller backs try to get too cute. Instead, the ECU runner lowers his shoulder into the oncoming safety, bounces off the hit, slows his gait to avoid a head-on collision with the second safety coming from the right, and spins inside the defender with excellent balance for the score. Here’s the frame-by-frame.

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Bullock may never turn into a special player, but this is a special run. The ECU runner had his legs cut at the four and he still manages to contort his body into position to reach the end zone despite only having one foot touch the ground after that contact with the second safety and reaching the end zone. Burst, balance, pad level, decisiveness, and agility are valuable traits for one back to have in the NFL. Louisiana-Lafayette may never be mistaken for an NFL team, but this was an NFL-caliber play.

Pass Protection

I want to focus on his pass protection, because as a 5-9, 178-pound back he’ll need to show that he can do some of this if he wants a shot as a third down, spread runner in the NFL.

BullockB1

Bullock’s first assignment came on 1st and 10 with 14:12 in the half from a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun set. He chips the defensive end with his inside shoulder. Considering the size differential between the two players, this is a good hit – and it’s not the only one.

BullockC1

Here’s a 2nd-and-seven from 20 personnel and 1×2 receivers. He’s the lead back in this offset pistol set with 10:12 in the half and he works to the edge of the pocket to take on the blitzing linebacker with good form.

BullockC2

Bullock does a nice job of getting between the defensive end and quarterback early in the play so he can square his body for the impending collision. He then takes a step forward to generate additional space so he lessens the chance of getting knocked into the quarterback.

BullockC3

The only mistake Bullock makes here is to lower his head in the act of delivering a punch to the defender as seen below.

BullockC4

Despite the technique flaw, Bullock gets his hands into the defender, delivers a punch, and turns the defender outside the pocket to funnel him away from the quarterback.

BullockC5

The delivery of the hit is especially good explosion and he follows up the contact with a second punch as the quarterback releases the ball. Telegraphing the hit with the lowered head needs to be corrected immediately or an NFL edge rusher eats Bullock’s lunch. Still, there are good things to work with here.

What I like most of all is the effort and smarts on the fly. Here’s a 2nd-and-10 play with 1:01 in the half that underscores this point. Bullock is the back in 10 personnel. This is a shotgun set with receivers 2×2 where he’s flanking the quarterback over right tackle. ULL blitzes two linebackers off the same side, but layers them in succession to confuse and overload the blocking scheme.

BullockD1

Bullock manages to make two blocks on this play, keep the play alive, and give the quarterback time to make perfect throw on the move to his wide receiver running a deep cross 40 yards down field that should have resutled in a touchdown. After the snap, Bullock crosses the formation to pick up the outside linebacker rushing off left tackle.

BullockD2

Bullock gets square as soon as he crosses the quarterback’s path. This is important because now he has more control to move laterally and use his hands while refining his angle to the pass rusher.

BullockD3

On this block, Bullock’s head is up as he delivers a two-handed punch with his body square to the defender despite needing to refine his body position. The downside of Bullock’s game is that he’s rarely going to have success anchoring against a defender bigger than a cornerback blitzing off the edge. However, the technique is good and it does afford the quarterback time to either release the ball or take evasive action. Hidden behind the offensive line is the second linebacker working around the corner as the first linebacker is knocking Bullock into the pocket.

BullockD4

The quarterback realizes it’s time to bug-out and the left tackle does a good job of helping Bullock with the outside linebacker. Meanwhile the inside linebacker rounds the corner and has a nice angle to the quarterback. Bullock has the presence of mind to see this developing and works outside to address the blitzer. It’s usually enough for a college team to expect a running back to successfully cross the formation and pick up one blitzer. It’s even better if that runner understands to work with the inside rush before working outside if the defense tries to overload that side with multiple blitzers. Bullock not only has to deal with the overload, but a layered look that could have been a disaster.

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The linebacker has the advantage on Bullock due to his angle outside, but I like the running back’s hustle to work outside and deliver a push that forces the rusher wide of the quarterback.

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There isn’t a day that goes when I’m studying the game where the “game of inches” truism isn’t reinforced with a play like this one. Bullock lays out for the chance to hit the linebacker bearing down on the quarterback and it’s this effort that makes the difference between a sack and what should have been a touchdown pass.

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The result of this effort is the quarterback earning room to work to the right flat and throw the ball 40 yards down field to his receiver on a deep cross that hits his teammate in stride.

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This play in pass protection and his 13-yard touchdown run demonstrate the Bullock knows he has to give every inch of effort to make something positive happen. He may never be a fantasy football owner’s idea of a dream pick, but on the right team and in the right scheme I think he could be far more valuable to an NFL team than the fact he’s not on the collective radar of most draftniks.

For more analysis of skill players like the post below, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment will be available in February. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece. 

The RSP Writers Project: You Vote

The RSP Writers Poll, AKA - which team with Darrelle Revis stood out to you. Photo by Marianne O'Leary.
The RSP Writers Poll, AKA – which team with Darrelle Revis stood out to you. Photo by Marianne O’Leary.

With the regular season coming to an end and it sounds like a good time to take a look back at the RSP Writers Project. If you’re not familiar with the project, I had the pleasure of hosting a group of football writers, former NFL players, and former NFL scouts whose job was to build a team with a salary cap and explain their personnel choices, schemes, and coaching staff. Now it’s your turn to share your thoughts about each team with one season in the books.  We’ll begin with the offensive units.

Here is the main menu for the project and all the teams. 

Today, take a look at the offenses of each team. From the standpoint of personnel and scheme, I’d like to know who you thought which team was the best in the following areas:

  • Top-performing offense this year.
  • Most promising offense long-term. 
  • Tough-luck team with good talent, but didn’t work out in 2012. 

You can also add commentary about your choices at the end of each question.

[polldaddy poll=6792405]

[polldaddy poll=6792408]

[polldaddy poll=6792415]

 

Flashes: RB Benny Cunningham, MTSU

MTSU RB Benny Cunningham has some major obstacles to earn a tryout with an NFL team this summer. If healthy and able to demonstrate the short-area quickness he flashed against Georgia Tech this fall, he could be a good fit behind Alfred Morris in the Redskins backfield. Photo by Keith Allison.
MTSU RB Benny Cunningham has some major obstacles to earn a tryout with an NFL team this summer. If healthy and able to demonstrate the short-area quickness he flashed against Georgia Tech this fall, he could be a good fit behind Alfred Morris in the Redskins backfield. Photo by Keith Allison.

This installment of Flashes profiles the play of Middle Tennessee State University runner Benny Cunningham. The senior, who was on the Doak Walker Award Watch List this summer, had a 217-yard, 5-touchdown afternoon against Georgia Tech in September. By November, he was out for the season with a torn patella tendon. what quality did he flash against the Yellow Jackets that makes Cunningham worth monitoring as a street free agent? Keep reading . . .

Cunningham is a 5-10, 210-pound, power runner who reminds me of a mix between Stephen Davis and Fred Lane. Not as big as Davis, but not as shifty as Lane. Power and pad level are the best aspects of Cunningham’s game as a runner. He attacks defenders and knows how to win the battle for extra yards.  This touchdown run against Louisiana-Monroe where he bulls over the middle linebacker at the six yard line and then bulldozes a second defender the remaining five yards is a great example.

Cunningham tore his patella tendon during his senior year, but was still named a second-team All-Sun Belt runner. He has the physical dimensions one would want to see from a running back, and his 21-carry, 217-yard, 5-touchdown performance against Georgia Tech in late September kept him on the NFL radar before his season-ending injury.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Rw5n3iXTLS0]

This injury will likely make Cunningham a street free agent looking for a tryout.  Fortunately, Middle Tennessee State likes Cunningham enough that they moved its Pro Day to as late a date as possible to give its runner more time to heal before a workout.

When I watched Cunningham in this Georgia Tech game, I wanted to see evidence of short-area quickness against a bigger-name team. The Yellow Jackets would likely get penetration at the line of scrimmage that could model some of the situations he’d see against professionals. Although I didn’t see great lateral agility from Cunningham in this game, there was one play in particular where Cunningham flashed it.

The situation was a 1st-and-15 with 10:33 in the third quarter from a 2×2 receiver, pistol set.

This play is a zone run to the left, but the Tech defensive tackle and backside end get strong penetration to the backfield in addition to penetration from the left side of the offensive line to force Cunningham to change direction in the backfield.
This play is a zone run to the left, but the Tech defensive tackle and backside end get strong penetration to the backfield in addition to penetration from the left side of the offensive line to force Cunningham to change direction in the backfield.

Cunningham feels the penetration coming across the face of his backside linemen and begins his cutback with a plant of his outside leg. This first cut will get him to the edge.

Cunningham runs with his eyes on this play. You can see him looking to the backside defenders as he begins his initial cutback.
Cunningham runs with his eyes on this play. You can see him looking to the backside defenders as he begins his initial cutback.

Most college runners are good enough to make one good cut and get down hill. That’s just a basic staple of running the football. However, it’s that second cut to transition from a bounce outside back to a down hill run that will be important for Cunningham to execute at the professional level. If he can’t, he’s going to see enough attempts for three- and four-yard losses that keep him from ever seeing an NFL lineup.

Cunningham eludes the defensive end with his first cut, but not has to make a lateral cut in succession with that first move if he wants to get down field on the linebacker in great position to cut off the flat.
Cunningham eludes the defensive end with his first cut, but not has to make a lateral cut in succession with that first move if he wants to get down field on the linebacker in great position to cut off the flat.

This is the kind of direction change that runners can refine from doing drills with rope ladders and cones. It doesn’t mean every runner can get quick enough to execute moves on top of moves in the NFL, but when a player demonstrates he can do so in a game it signals that he has good feet without thinking about it. This second cut above is one of those instances. It gets Cunningham in a position where he’s now heading down hill on the outside linebacker.

The OLB heads straight into Cunningham's wheel house.
The OLB makes a beeline into Cunningham’s wheel house.

Once Cunningham gets his pads square, he does what he does best: get low, drive those muscular thighs forward and attack the defender who was in position to catch a ride on the BC Econoline rather than hit MTSU’s power back.

Two yards later, Cunningham is dragging the OLB across the line of scrimmage and picking up momentum.
Two yards later, Cunningham is dragging the OLB across the line of scrimmage and picking up momentum.

Cunningham gains four yards on this play-landing at the tip of this arrow after dragging his opponent five yards after initial contact. It’s not the flashiest run of the day. It’s not the most meaningful, either. But to someone looking for NFL-caliber skills, this play models some of the things Cunningham will have to do if he wants any chance of success at the next level.

It’s worth noting that this 2×2 pistol was the primary running formation that MSTU used to feature Cunningham. Sometimes the receivers were split, other times they were stacked. The pistol look and Cunningham’s dimensions remind me somewhat Alfred Morris and the Redskins running game. If Cunningham can return to complete health and do more than just “flash” lateral agility and short-area quickness, he could be a nice backup for Morris.

2012 RSP Sample: QB Skill Breakdown Sample

Photo by Seth Youngblood.
Check out my QB Skill Breakdown sample from the 2012 RSP. Photo by Seth Youngblood.

Whenever I provide samples of the RSP, they are links to individual reports of players. These reports are raw, play-by-play notes located in the back of the book. My readers appreciate these, but most of them get the publication for the front-of-the-book material.

One of these reports is the Skill Breadowns that I perform by position. I use the play-by-play notes and checklist scores to create the report you’ll see below. This report ranks each quarterback according to the skill sets I grade with the play-by-play checklists. The report is a tier-based analysis and helps me arrive at my overall rankings for the position.

What you’ll notice is how well Russell Wilson performed across the board in this analysis. A big reason why when Football Outsiders decided to stick an asterisk to his name when he scored off the charts in its Lewin Career Forecast that I thought it worthwhile to break him down as my first column for them.

This link will give you access: Skill Breakdown Section from 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.

To see the 2012 RSP or past issues (2006-2011) you can purchase the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publications here. The 2013 RSP will be available for download at the same link on April 1, 2013. Remember, 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light to help train communities on the prevention of sexual abuse. 

Futures at Football Outsiders: WR Martel Moore, NIU

Derrick Mason wasn't a stud-prospect by physical definition, but he flashed an integrated game much like NIU WR Martel Moore. Photo by Keith Allison.
Derrick Mason wasn’t a stud-prospect by physical definition, but he flashed an integrated game much like NIU WR Martel Moore. Photo by Keith Allison.

Futures: Northern Illinois WR Martel Moore

By Matt Waldman

Sleeper. It might be my favorite word. If by some infinitesimal chance — or twisted act of fate — I somehow wind up on stage at Pace University’s New York City Campus and I’m sitting across the table from James Lipton, ‘Sleeper’ would be my answer.

I love the word and all the relatives in its family. There’s its feisty little brother Underrated, its sneaky-smart cousin Undervalued, and its quiet, workaholic uncle Unsung. This clan of words describes my favorite prospects -– guys lacking marquee names, but flashing marquee games.

“Sleeper” is a relative term in sports. It’s all about expectation. A sleeper to a fan might be Panthers wide receiver Steve Smith — a prospect expected to make a roster, but not universally expected to become a star. Arian Foster might be the classical definition of sleeper –- an undrafted prospect that wound up becoming a Pro Bowler. However, a sleeper can also be a player who simply makes a roster, displaces a more-heralded veteran and contributes part-time, or a player drafted higher, starting earlier, and succeeding faster than most analysts thought.

Some of my favorite sleepers last year who matched various ways of defining the term were Russell WilsonBryce Brown,Marvin JonesLaVon Brazill, and Bobby Rainey. I already have a healthy list of sleepers for 2013. One of them is Northern Illinois wide receiver Martel Moore.

Last week’s Futures subject, Marquess Wilson, could get drafted in the late rounds because, among other distinguishing characteristics, he played in a program with the conference pedigree to earn early hype. Moore isn’t likely to earn a phone call from an NFL team until the latter half of the April proceedings because he isn’t a big-time physical specimen. Despite sporting a recent track record of professionals like Michael TurnerJustin McCareinsSam Hurd, and Garrett Wolfe, NIU isn’t a big-name program. Although the 6-foot-0, 183-pound Moore has an average-sized frame, he has the potential to develop into a big-play threat along the lines of other average-sized-but-extraordinary-skilled receivers like Isaac BruceTorry Holt,Tim BrownDerrick Mason, and Brandon Lloyd.

What these players have in common is a keen awareness and control of their bodies in relationship to their on-field environment. Some might define this as an aspect of “on-field awareness” or “football intelligence.” It also qualifies to some degree as uncanny athleticism.

To define this awareness further, Moore exhibits skills that are difficult to teach a receiver at a stage of development as advanced as college football. . . 

Read the Rest at Football Outsiders

What is The RSP?

What is the RSP? What does it stand for? What do you get from it? Why is it insanely detailed, but insanely easy to read? Here’s a basic primer. There is also a Q&A that you can read that answers these questions in more detail.

I don’t like giving my money away…but one thing that is worth every dollar I spend is @MattWaldman’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio

– Eric Dickens, www.dynastyleaguefootball.com

The Rookie Scouting Portfolio is the most comprehensive publication of NFL prospect analysis at the skill positions.

Devised from best-practice methodologies, the RSP provides rankings and analysis and also shows ‘its math.’ I want to make the evaluation process as transparent as possible to the reader:

  • Everything I score, I try to define.
  • I also define my scoring system and reports so anyone could do it – if they enjoy that kind of punishment.
  • I document almost everything I see with play-by-play detail. Yes, that’s a lot of work. No, you don’t have to read that part of the book to get value from the RSP.
  • I ranking every player I grade by position. I also do a post-draft ranking and tiered cheat sheet.
  • Overrated, underrated, and long-term projects.
  • Players that have boom-bust potential, their potential appears maxed, or have great upside.
  • Player comparisons to past NFL players based on style and builds.
  • Overall rankings and comparisons in cheat sheet/table format with pertinent measurements and workout results.
  • Overall rankings with written explanations in paragraph form.

It’s a lot of stuff. But it is easy to navigate and it has become a resource that scouts and draft analysts use to cross-check their evaluations of players. Draftniks use the RSP to learn about the difficult to evaluate skill positions, and fantasy football owners swear by as a bible for their rookie drafts. Feeling an insatiable thirst for knowledge? Read the Q&A behind the RSP.

Download the 2012 RSP or purchase past issues (2006-2011)


Reads Listens Views 12/21/2012

One of the books I'm reading. I just finished "The Reader," and "Eye-Tracking the News." About to start "Don't Make Me Think."
One of the books I’m reading. I just finished “The Reader,” and “Eye-Tracking the News.” About to start “Don’t Make Me Think.”

My weekly list of links, tunes, and reads (football and otherwise), in addition to a thank you for supporting this blog and the annual Rookie Scouting Portfolio Publication. This includes a new ‘No-Huddle Series’ piece, Some serious saxophone playing, a good mock draft from Russ Lande, a piece from Sports on Earth, and Omer Avital. Check it.

Listens – Best Stop-Time Solo Ever

[youtube=http://youtu.be/S88-MqAVk3w]

Sonny Rollins, Kennedy Honors Recipient

Thank You

Things at the RSP are about to ramp up. I am already ahead of schedule with my game study and I hope that my holiday break will get me in position to have attained 75-80 percent of my player goal for the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. This means I’ll continue to provide in-depth, play-by-play analysis and essays about prospects on the blog – including Senior Bowl coverage both here and at the New York Times Fifth Down. 

If you haven’t read the 2012 RSP, you ought to check it out. The pre-draft and post-draft publications are a package set and the feedback this year was tremendous. I will be doing the same with the 2013 publication, making the pre-draft available for download (as always) on April 1 and the post-draft publication available one week after the NFL Draft. The option to prepay – as you’ve requested – will be available the same time as last year – more on that in January.

This promotion of my work ahead comes with a thank you to those of you who read and support the blog as well as my publication. I have fantastic readers. I wish I could spend more time corresponding with those of you who take the time to send me quality stuff on a regular basis. It is something I value even if I can’t always respond in kind with equal time and effort.

Football Reads

Non-Football Reads

Views

Lyle Lovett Tiny Desk Concert

Omer Avital In Concert

No-Huddle Series: WR Darius Johnson, SMU

June Jones says SMU's Darius Johnson is one of the best, if not the best, wide receiver he's ever coaches. Find out a little why those words should get your attention.
June Jones says SMU’s Darius Johnson is one of the best, if not the best, wide receiver he’s ever coached. Find out a little why those words should get your attention.

For more analysis of skill players like the post below, download the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. News for the availability to prepay for the 2013 RSP and RSP Post-Draft Add-on is coming soon. 

Run and Shoot coaching disciple June Jones has coached his share of star receivers both at the college and professional level. I’ve found that his frame of reference about the position is pretty good. If he praises a player’s potential, that receiver is worth watching. Jones has coached the likes of Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley in recent years.

He also had Ashley Lelie and once said that former Hawaii receiver Davone Bess reminded him of Andre Rison. If you don’t understand the nature of comparisons, read this essay so your mindset isn’t so literal about this type of analysis. Bess is a fine NFL receiver. Not a superstar, but a reliable starter with a great third-down game and potential to develop into one of the best slots weapons in the league if the Miami offense can add and develop its skill talent in the next three to five years.

So when Jones shared in a weekly press conference this season that SMU receiver Darius Johnson might be the best receiver he’s ever coached, and possibly the best athlete, that raises the old antennae.  Johnson is a 5-10, 175-pound receiver with excellent skill as a ball carrier in the open field. What stands out most about his game for me right now is his hand strength and skill to go all-out for the football.

The No-Huddle Series is not a full analysis of a player’s strengths and weaknesses. It’s just a chance to show readers why that player should be on the radar of NFL teams seeking depth with upside in the late rounds or potential street free agents with promise to develop into contributors. Johnson could become a valuable slot receiver.

A Megatron Catch From His Mini-Me

This is a first-and-10 play with 5:04 in the third quarter against Houston. Johnson is part of the trips package of a 3×1-receiver alignment from a 10-personnel pistol set. Johnson’s route is a corner route against zone. Before the play begins the Houston free safety works towards the line of scrimmage to the intermediate zone from his previous alignment deep.

Johnson is the middle receiver on the trips side and runs a corner route to the right sideline.
Johnson is the middle receiver on the trips side and runs a corner route to the right sideline.

Although the free safety works within six to seven yards of the line of scrimmage before the snap, he drops into coverage as the underneath zone defender on Johnson’s route. The cornerback outside drops into a deeper zone. SMU’s quarterback makes an ill-advised decision to target Johnson between these zones, lofting the ball up for grabs off his back foot.

It's tough enough to see Johnson, much less expect him to come down with this target.
It’s tough enough to see Johnson, much less expect him to come down with this target.

However, Johnson displays a skill set that will make some temporarily forget about the reckless decision. By the time the ball arrives within a foot of the players, the SMU receiver has timed his leap perfectly. He’s over the top of the defensive back with his hands in great position to attack the ball first.

DJohnsonA3

Johnson is first to the ball, but he’s in a position where his hands will need to be strong enough to pry the ball free from the defender from a position with gravity working against him and then control it before the defender recovers to knock it free from Johnson’s grip.

Johnson gets a great grip on the ball, and a firmer one than the defensive back.
Johnson seemingly gets a great grip on the ball, and a firmer one than the defensive back.

But to truly see how strong a grip Johnson has on the ball, it becomes even more telling how extraordinarily strong his hands are on this play when watching the position of the ball in Johnson’s hands as the receiver pulls it free from the defensive back below.

Imagine how good of a grip one has to have on the football to pull it in an upward motion when hand position is this close to the top.
Imagine how good of a grip one has to have on the football to pull it in an upward motion when hand position is this close to the top.

Not only does Johnson pull the ball free from the defender in better position, but he still has the awareness to tap both feet inside the boundary despite a second defender giving him a push in the back.

DJohnsonA6

Johnson punctuates this 21-yard gain with a great toe-tap while maintaining firm possession of the ball even as he exits the boundary.

DJohnsonA7

Darius Johnson isn’t Calvin Johnson, but this was one of the more difficult catches I’ve seen in respects both common (vertical leap-timing) and uncommon (hand strength and sideline awareness). In this contest, Johnson had two other catches where he had to make a strong adjustment to the football and in both cases he snatched the ball like he was practicing with a JUGS machine. I’m looking forward to seeing more – especially if he earns a postseason invitation to an all-star game and he faces single coverage and press corners. If he fares well, I think he might have a future as a potential dynamo in the slot. Stay tuned.