Date Archives March 2013

Reads Listens Views 3/8/13

If you think of me when you see these three players - among others - you don't need me to say any more. If you don't, perhaps its time to starting downloading the RSP publication every April 1.
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If you think of me when you see these three players – among others – you don’t need me to say any more. If you don’t, perhaps its time to starting downloading the RSP publication every April 1 Based on eight years of experience, you’ll thank me later. But first . . . What is Reads Listens Views? If you’re new to the blog, every Friday I supply links to things I thought were worth a read about football and the world beyond it. I also provide videos of music I enjoy, football players from the past, and a variety of other topics.

Most of all, I take this day to say thank you and yes, remind you to get the 2013 RSP.

Listens I

[youtube=http://youtu.be/7JFjYzuXesw]

Thank You

Thanks to all of you who read the blog, follow me on Twitter, and purchase the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication. Available for download every April 1 (no joke) for going on eight years, the RSP is an online .PDF publication devoted to the play-by-play study of NFL prospects at the offensive skill positions. The publication has a menu that bookmarks the document so you have two types of analysis. The first portion is a magazine-style, pre-draft analysis of 120-150 pages that includes position rankings, player comparisons, skill set analysis of each position, and sleepers.

The second portion is where I show all my work: between 700-800 pages of grading reports, play-by-play analysis of every player and game I watched, and a glossary that defines every criteria in my grading reports. My readers who want the bottom line love the first half of the book and appreciate the transparency of this section. My hardcore readers love the fact that they can dive as deep as they want into these raw play-by-play notes.

Included with the RSP (since 2012) is a post-draft document between 50-70 pages that comes out a week after the NFL Draft with updated post-draft rankings, tiers, team fit analysis, and fantasy cheat sheet with value analysis (Russell Wilson was calculated as the best value last year). Fantasy owners can’t get enough of it.

The RSP is $19.95 and I donate 10 percent of each sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit dedicated to training individuals and communities on the prevention of sexual abuse. Past years of publications (2006-2012) are available for $9.95 and I also donate 10 percent of each sale to D2L. You can prepay for the 2013 RSP now.

RSPWP2 – What Is It? 

We’re nearly four rounds into the Second Annual Rookie Scouting Portfolio Writers Project. To follow along you can access the draft room any time and choose a team to read commentary on their selections.

One of the biggest questions I see about this project is What is the purpose? 

  • Build a winner this year?
  • Build a long-term winner?
  • Beat everyone else drafting?

The primary answer is we want discussion. Takes on players and how they fit into scheme. Interaction among some of the best people writing about football online in a variety of formats: news, strategy, advanced stats, and fantasy sports. Yes, fantasy sports writers have a rightful place at the table. I’ve had a lot of request for a grid format to view the draft picks. As we get into the middle rounds of the draft, we’ll make an Excel table available for download and update it periodically for your viewing pleasure.

Listens II

[youtube=http://youtu.be/HlnDHUjoQ_U]

Football Reads

Non-Football Reads

Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/QPKKQnijnsM]

M.A.V. – Micro Air Vehicles  – As with all technology, the uses can be awe-inspiring and awful. The glass is half-empty for me on this one, folks.

Listens III

[youtube=http://youtu.be/WRbHXVZFe1w]

Futures: Arkansas RB Knile Davis

Shonn Greene wouldn't be my player comp for Knile Davis, but I understand the reasoning. Photo by Matt Britt.
Shonn Greene wouldn’t be my player comp for Knile Davis, but I understand the reasoning. Photo by Matt Britt.

When I saw the 2012 Lewin Career Forecast, I had already studied Russell Wilson. In fact, I told a panel of draft analysts on a National Football Post podcast (beginning at the 17:42 mark) that included Josh Norris, Wes Bunting, and Josh Buchanan that Wilson was my sleeper quarterback in this draft. I was cynical that Wilson would be picked before the third round, but once Seattle opted for the N.C. State-Wisconsin quarterback, my immediate thought was that Wilson would be a pivotal test case against height bias in the NFL.

I think there’s another potential test case in the draft this year, but on the opposite end of the spectrum when it comes to the dilemma of prototypical skills vs. prototypical measurements. The lead actor in this draft-day drama could be Knile Davis. If an NFL team selects Davis in the first three rounds of this draft, it will be a telling indication that they relied more on Davis’ Combine performance –- and to some degree sabermetrics –- than the opinions of scouts and draft analysts who lean hard on the game tape.

Davis was an All-SEC selection in 2010, rushing for 1322 yards and scoring 13 touchdowns. In 2011, the Arkansas running back missed the season with a broken ankle. Davis underwhelmed in 2012, losing the starting job to reserve Dennis Johnson and only showing flashes of what he did in 2010.

Fast forward to the 2013 NFL Combine, and the 227-pound runner put on a show: a 4.37 40-yard dash and 31 reps on the bench press. It was an impressive performance that vaulted Davis atop Football Outsiders’ Speed Score metric for running backs. According to Danny Tuccitto, a Speed score below 80 is “a giant red flag,” a 100 Speed Score is “average,” and “anything above 120 serving as a giant neon sign.”

This makes Davis’ Speed Score, “off-the-charts good.” If you listen to Davis talk about NFL players of comparison, his self-perception is also top-notch. Andrew Gribble reports that Davis describes his style as on par with Arian Foster and Adrian Peterson.

If you ask me, Davis has some sort of dsymorphic disorder isolated to running backs and American Idol audition candidates. He has the idea that he performs differently than he does. Davis’ style is nowhere close to that of Foster or Peterson. When it comes to talent, if Davis is one of the top-ten runners in this class, then it’s a stretch to place him among the top seven in what is a deep class that lacks superstar talent at the top.

While I can’t be definitive about an exact ranking because I’m about two days away from the month-long task of compiling my 24 months of analysis into rankings this month, I can say that I have similar concerns as other writers (such as Rotoworld’s Evan Silva, NFL.com’s Josh Norris, and Bleacher Report’s Sigmund Bloom) who have studied Davis.

Foster and Peterson don’t come to mind when they watch Davis run. The running back mentioned most often among them was Shonn Greene.

Ouch.

Read the Rest Football Outsiders

RSPWP2: Waldman’s Early Thoughts

Will Bramel allow Cutler to light up on the field? Photo by Mike Shadle.
Will Bramel allow Cutler to light up on the field? Photo by Mike Shadle.

I love this draft. It has defensive-minded Jene Bramel taking gunslinger Jay Cutler, yours truly ditching offense for two monolithic bad boys with wheels on the defensive line, and Football Outsiders’ founder Aaron Schatz talking intangibles.

Intangibles!

I have to admit, this project is a lot more fun that I even anticipated. The writers we have on board are excellent and Sigmund Bloom has done a fantastic job of setting up the free-flowing, conversational draft room on Twitter – hash tag #RSPWP2. If you’re new to the RSP blog, I encourage you to look around. I update content at least 3-4 times a week with analysis that my regular readers love.

To follow the second annual Rookie Scouting Portfolio Writers Project  at the blog, you can access the draft room any time and choose a team to read commentary on their selections.

One of the biggest questions I see about this project is What is the purpose? 

  • Build a winner this year?
  • Build a long-term winner?
  • Beat everyone else drafting?

The primary answer is we want discussion. Takes on players and how they fit into scheme. Interaction among some of the best people writing about football online in a variety of formats: news, strategy, advanced stats, and fantasy sports. Yes, fantasy sports writers have a rightful place at the table.

As for the three bullet points, I see the secondary purpose of this exercise as open-ended. I want to build a long-term winner. Another writer like Sam Monson – who will likely disagree with me about my view of his team thus far – may choose to win now with such urgency that he’ll make Peyton Manning a priority selection. Marc Lillibridge is bent on beating everyone else – I think he’s few seconds away from challenging someone to a race as we speak.

There are a lot of requests for us to determine a winner. Lots of ideas coming our way from readers about this. I’m sure we’ll figure something out. I’m in favor of selecting a peer group of writers not affiliated with the project to judge the teams on these categories.

  • The 12 teams most likely to make the playoffs.
  • The four teams most likely to play in a conference championship.
  • The eight teams with the best long-term promise to contend.
  • The eight best offenses.
  • The eight best defenses.

I can think of more. In fact, I’d love to get some peer writers to provide a commentary where we take these teams through the playoffs and there’s a written discussion on how the games might play out. Feel free to tell me what you think of these ideas.

Is A.J. Green scheme-dependent? I have to say so, even if I wanted him in the first round. Photo by Wade Rackley.
Is A.J. Green scheme-dependent? I have to say so, even if I wanted him in the first round. Photo by Wade Rackley.

It’s way too early to judge any team, including Cian Fahey’s squad – which has come under fire on Twitter for selecting a very good defensive end in Calais Campbell with the ninth overall pick. However, I want to share some early-round thoughts now that we’re a pick away from completing the first 64:

  • Bargains: Of the first 20 picks, 15 were quarterbacks. No surprise. However, once I let Jay Cutler slip past me at pick No.27, Cutler dropped another 17 spots. As maligned as Cutler is for his attitude, his lack of technical and conceptual discipline, and not producing stats commensurate with his promise, he’s still capable of 35-40 touchdowns in a good offense. In fact, I’m still a little surprised Tony Romo and even Philip Rivers dropped as far as they did. Especially Romo. If he was there at 27, I would have taken him.  Ryan Clady is another. Lance Zierlein couldn’t believe the left tackle – who might be the best pass protector in the game – was still on the board at the bottom of the second round.
  • Scheme-Heavy: I think these picks could be excellent but readers may question them because they won’t look as good unless the player, the scheme, and the personnel taken to complement them lock into place.

    • Chris Burke’s selection of Colin Kapernick – A terrific, young player who I think is a little more pistol-dependent at this stage of his career than I’d like to see. I think he lacks touch as a passer, especially in the red zone. Make fun of Randy Moss all you want, but give last year’s incarnation of No.84 a good touch passer capable of throwing receivers open and the Ravens lose handily. He’ll get better, but I think at this stage of his career he’s scheme dependent.
    • Cian Fahey’s pick of Calais Campbell – I think Fahey is well on his way to making the selection of Campbell worthwhile. Although I don’t think anyone will buy that taking Campbell ninth was good value, it’s easy to harp on that point when we have an understanding of what these players are capable of doing in the NFL. Pairing Campbell with Justin Smith is a good foundation for a 2-4-5 defensive scheme that Fahey intends to use.
    • Ian Kenyon’s picks of A.J. Green and Demaryius Thomas – In contrast to the reaction Fahey received for Campbell, most readers loved Kenyon’s picks. I do to. However, I can see the downside if Kenyon doesn’t make sure he has the talent to get them the ball – especially down the field. Imagine buying a Porsche or a Shelby, parking them in a bad neighborhood, and then getting locked in the building you entered.  Or, driving either of these cars in bumper-to-bumper traffic on an eight-lane highway with the speed limit of 80 and everyone is going 3. It could piss you off quick.
    • Jene Bramel taking Aldon Smith  – I think this has to do with Bramel relaying Monson’s point that pressure inside is more dominant than pressure outside. Smith is a great, young player. As long as Bramel does what I bet he’ll do, there will be little risk of having a double-teamed OLB with little else on defense to make an offensive pay for doing so. Still, it forces Bramel into a path early on.

Your Turn Coming Soon

Stay tuned, I’ll have a poll for readers to share what they think of the opening rounds of this draft.

The RSP Writers project is brought to you by the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Learn more about the 2013 RSP Writers Project and check out the completed 2012 RSP Writers Project where we built teams under a realistic salary cap. You can try it yourself.

RSP Writers Project No.2 (RSPWP2): Draft In Progress

In fantasy football Adrian Peterson is a great player to build a team around. However if you had to build a real team from scratch with realistic fiscal constraints it's not as easy a decision. Photo by xoque.
In fantasy football Adrian Peterson is a great player to build a team around. However if you had to build a real team from scratch where would you take him in a draft like the RSPWP2? Photo by xoque.

The RSP Writers Project is a collection of football writers, analysts, and former scouts who participate in a now-annual event designed to share thoughts about pro football through an exercise. Last year we selected full rosters with salary caps and required each writer to develop a scheme on each side of the ball and even choose coaches.

This year, we’re holding a draft. You can find the Draft Room here. Each pick and its explanation – long or short – will be at the links embedded with each writer’s name. Will we draft a full team? That’s a goal, but the true goal is to spark discussion about player value to a franchise, picking for talent or scheme, etc.

If you want to keep up with it live go to Twitter and follow @RSPDraft2013