Date Archives April 2013

2013 RSP Post-Draft

0 Comments read RSP Publication
Will Bell be an immediate impact player in Pittsburgh? Photo by Matt Radick.
Will Bell be an immediate impact player in Pittsburgh? My take on this and the rest of the skill position picks (and UDFAs) coming this week – see below. Photo by Matt Radick.

For the next few days, I’ll be working on the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio Post-Draft Add-On. This is a .pdf document of 60-70 pages for fantasy owners that includes rankings by position and also across all positions. The post-draft analysis also discusses scheme fit, depth chart projections, fantasy draft analysis, and value scores for each player.

The RSP Post-Draft Add-on comes with purchase of the 2013 RSP. It will be available for download no later than Friday, May 3 but I anticipate it could be available as much as a day or two earlier. I will email all subscribers once it’s available as well as announce it here.

Here are the first six responses I from an email about the RSP-Post Draft minutes after I sent the message:

  • “Great, thanks and awesome work!” – Mark Costanza
  • “Thanks Matt. Appreciate your good work a lot. Big thank you and best regards from Germany” – Deiter Janssen
  • “Thank you so much for the insane amount of work you put into the RSP.” – Corey Tadlock
  • “Big fan here keep doing what you do!!” – Russell Franceschini
  • “It’s been awesome to watch the growth of this project from year to year.  Congratulations.” – David Hamill
  • “Can’t wait!!! And great work BTW” James Tallon

If you have yet to purchase the RSP, I encourage you to do so. In addition to it being a value to you, each purchase allows me to donate 10 percent of the cost to Darkness to Light. D2L combats sexual abuse through training and awareness to community organizations and individuals.

For those of you who have done so – thanks for making this a great year already!

2013 1st Round Draft Thoughts and Links

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
The attitude towards the term "project" is often a glass half-full/half-empty proposition. Which one is Manuel? See below. Photo by D Wilkinson.
The attitude towards the term “project” is often a glass half-full/half-empty proposition. The Bills are optimistic. See below. Photo by D Wilkinson.

Looking for a little preview of my 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio Pre-Draft Rankings? The New York Times is posting the RSP top-five at each skill position.

There will likely be a cluster of  quarterbacks and receivers leaving the board in the second and third round who have just as much if not more of an impact that the first-round talent. I think the same will happen with running backs and tight ends in rounds 3-5 and it will be important to analyze team fit in terms of prospect talent, depth chart talent, and scheme.

Remember, when you purchase the RSP you also get the Post-Draft Addendum with revised fantasy rankings across all positions, preliminary ADP data, and player-team fit analysis.  With a draft like this where we didn’t see a lot of skill players go off the board in the first round, the more you know about these guys the better.

Download the 2013 RSP today and when I announce the post-draft add-on is ready you enter your login and password to download it as well.

First-Round Thoughts – You can find links to analysis of a majority of these players here.

1. Kansas City- Left Tackle Eric Fisher: Fisher’s athleticism makes him a slam dunk here. While Joeckel is an excellent player in his own right, Fisher’s ability to pull and the similarities to former Chippewa and Niner tackle extraordinaire Joe Staley made it too difficult for Andy Reid to resist. Remember, Reid loves the screen play and and Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, Dexter McCluster, and Devon Wylie are the type of players with run after the catch skills who will also benefit from a tackle who can work the flats.

2. Jacksonville – Tackle Luke Joeckel: Will he play left or right with Eugene Monroe there? Doug Farrar thinks Joeckel is a better right tackle in terms of athletic match. What I can tell you is that the Jaguars have had their share of ailments at the line of scrimmage and it’s always good to have redundancy at one of the more important positions on offense. There’s still time for Jacksonville to grab a quarterback if they want to make this a three-horse race between a rookie, Blaine Gabbert, and Chad Henne. Personally, I think they would be wise to give Gabbert one more year, but he better shake the “Blame” Gabbert label quick.

3. Miami (trade with Oakland) – Outside Linebacker Dion Jordan: Cameron Wake opposite Jordan, but Jon Gruden brings up an interesting point in terms of Jordan playing a rotation at Oregon and whether he’ll be good for four quarters of NFL football. I’m not too worried about Jordan’s conditioning as much as how he’ll fit into a new defense. He also strikes me as more of a “clean-up” playmaker than the instigator. On a team with Cameron Wake on the opposite side, that’s not a bad thing, but if Jordan had to be that primary guy I’d be more worried. It’s a fine pick and a risk worth taking because of the Aldon Smith upside.

4. Philadelphia – Left Tackle Lane Johnson: A former college quarterback-tight end-right tackle who is now drafted as a left tackle. You need an athlete for up-tempo football and he can play either side. Johnson will bolster the running game and hopefully transition smooth enough to give Mike Vick fewer breakdowns. Of course, Vick has to improve his presnap calls and Johnson has to get used to playing with a mobile quarterback who can be out of control at the wrong times.

5. Detroit – Defensive End Ezekial Ansah: Great athlete who, like Jordan, cleans up better than he starts action. He’s inexperienced compared to even most prospects. Detroit loves his effort and I think this is Jim Washburn lobbying Jim Schwartz for another chance to find a Jason Pierre-Paul. Hopefully there is a fast learning curve or Willie Young takes a huge step forward – he was a second-round pick, you’d think he’s capable. Of course the bills made DT John McCargo a first-round pick and he’s done zilch.

6. Cleveland – Outside linebacker/Defensive End Barkevious Mingo: Mingo’s upside is worth the risk. I think OLB is an easier transition than to DE and he was an LB in high school. Mingo is a misunderstood prospect in terms of his diminished production last year. He was asked to contain the quarterback rather than attack and this meant bull-rushing 300-pound linemen. For a player his size to do this effectively – and he did – takes excellent strength and quickness. First-round pick D.J. Fluker didn’t look all that good against the “raw” Mingo. Cleveland got a potential impact player once this kid refines 1-2 moves that he already has in his toolbox.

7.  Arizona – Guard Jonathan Cooper: One of the safer picks in the draft. Unbelievably quick and his ability to pull not only helps the running game, but play action. Remember, the best play action passes often come with a pulling guard. It’s not always how convincing the quarterback’s fake or the threat of the specific runner as much as it is the fear of the guard. The threat of Cooper will fool a lot of defenders in this league and buy Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald more time. People can make fun of Palmer’s lack of mobility all they want, but he’s far more nimble than many have characterized on TV. Regardless of mobility, Palmer still throws a great deep ball and has three players capable of working down field with the benefit of play action. Cooper will help buy time. If the tackles play a little better, I’d give a bump to Palmer, Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and Andre Roberts. There’s some nice material for this passing game to click and this team will need to throw the ball a lot.

8. St. Louis (trade with Buffalo) – Wide Receiver  Tavon Austin: If Austin is misused, he’ll look like Dexter McCluster pre-Andy Reid days. If his talents are maximized, Darren Sproles and Wes Welker come to mind. Austin is not as talented as either in their specific skills as runners and receivers, but he’s a good mix of both and that means he could be one of the more productivity rookies this year.

9. NY Jets – Cornerback Dee Milliner: I said I’d be surprised (December 1) if he wasn’t a top-10 pick.  Miller’s ability to play the receiver and the ball in tight coverage is excellent. He may not catch a lot of passes, but he knows how to jar it loose and get the angle to knock it away. That’s more important that the interception. He’s also a terrific run defender. The Jets may miss Darrelle Revis, but if Milliner plays like he did at Alabama only your less enlightened New York fans will be bashing Milliner a few years from now.

10. Tennessee – Guard Chance Warmack: Warmack bolsters a Titans line and the hope is to give Chris Johnson and dare I say, Shonn Greene more room to roam. If you ask me, they should take another running back. Spencer Ware could beat Greene in his sleep and make a great complement to Johnson, but I don’t think the front office would like to be embarrassed for its misstep on free agent runners so don’t count on it. Then again, if they were foolish enough to take Greene, perhaps they lack the awareness to avoid a better back they can get in rounds 5-7.

11. San Diego – Tackle D.J. Fluker: Safe pick who can play tackle or guard, but I wonder if this is a “play not to lose” pick. Fluker is that kind of guy that teams say “if he doesn’t work at tackle, we at least have a guard.” That’s not how I want to feel about a first-round pick. Cleveland did that with tackle Jason Pinkston two years ago, but the budding stud at guard was a fifth-round pick.

12. Oakland – Cornerback D.J. Hayden: A good player versus the pass. But when the largest artery in your body attached to your heart looks like wet toilet tissue in the operating room and you’re seconds from death, it’s hard to believe the Raiders would be this confident to take Hayden this early. I like their confidence, but for an organization with a track record of taking great athletes with high risk thresholds fans have to be somewhat concerned. If it pays off, he’ll be just what this team needs because its cornerback depth chart is unproven, at best.

13. NY Jets – Defensive Tackle Sheldon Richardson Excellent athlete, but is he a three-technique? What does this mean for the future of the defensive scheme and use of current personnel like Coples?

14. Carolina – Defensive Tackle Star Lotulelei: I think he’s capable of being the best player in this draft. I have a feeling the heart condition scared off all these steak-eating, heart medicine-taking football decision-makers in their 50s and 60s who considered the Utah defensive tackle early. There’s concern he wears down late in games but nobody plays 91.5 percent of the season’s snaps and doesn’t wear down. That’s an insane amount of snaps for a big man. He anticipates the snap better than any defensive tackle in this draft and I think his pass rushing will be better than people characterize once he’s on a rotation that doesn’t ask him to play as much as he did out west. If Jon Beason, Luke Kuechley, and Thomas Davis stay healthy, the Panthers may compete for a playoff spot in 2013.

15 Saints – Safety Kenny Vacarro: A physical, aggressive, athletic tone-setter, Vaccaro is one of my three must-have players along with Lotulelei and Fisher. He should grow into a fine player and be capable of covering slot receivers and tight ends.

16 Bills – QB E.J. Manuel: See this link for more on Manuel. It is fascinating that Marrone took Manuel over Nassib – the quarterback Greg Cosell, Russ Lande, and Jon Gruden thought was the best pro-ready passer. Manuel’s accuracy needs work, but it’s more a conceptual than technical issue. I’m not even sure you call it a flaw as much as inexperience. We’ll see if Todd McShay’s “slow eyes” assertion will be an issue. I thought Manuel read the field well and learned fast from his mistakes. He’ll make some foolish plays, but I don’t think they’ll be the same type over and over. What they’ll be able to do with Manuel and the running backs will also be something to watch. What I do worry about is the lack of a deep threat in Buffalo. Steve Johnson is a fine player, but not a classic field stretcher. They need one and I think that will be addressed in this draft – perhaps one of the next two picks.

17 Pittsburgh – LB Jarvis Jones: This makes as much sense as peanut better and jelly on toasted bread.

18 San Francisco – Eric Reid, Safety: Reid replaces Dashon Goldson. A good player who has room to get better and should do so on a defensive unit this good.

19 Giants – Guard Justin Pugh: Honestly, I don’t know much about him.

20 Chicago – Guard/OT Kyle Long: See above.

21 Cincinnati – Tight End Tyler Eifert: Joe Goodberry says Jermaine Gresham’s contract ends after 2014. Eifert has enough skill as a blocker to develop into a decent replacement with more consistent hands and routes than Gresham. I like the pick because Gresham will be the guy on the line of scrimmage and Eifert can play the Y tight end who moves around and presents problems for defenses in 12 personnel sets. This should help the run and pass game and the Bengals struggled on the ground. Of course, I don’t think they know their running back talent and that might be part of th problem, too.

22 Atlanta – Cornerback Desmond Trufant: Trufant fits the mold of a first-round corner: athletic, aggressive, and confident. He was also battle-tested due to a sub par defensive unit and perhaps the Falcons liked this about him as well. They know he’ll continue battling and not go into a shell when he gets beat.

23 Minnesota – Defensive Tackle Sharrif Floyd: Minnesota has some success developing linemen so I think it’s a good fit for Floyd, who has the potential to become an excellent 4-3 defensive tackle. The pad level has to get better, but this was a good place to take Floyd – rather than the top of the first round.

24. Indianapolis Defensive End/OLB Bjoern Werner: I like Werner as an outside linebacker/elephant-type Terrell Suggs prospect. The quickness and awareness at the line of scrimmage are good enough that I think Werner projects better here than a traditional defensive end.

25. Minnesota – Cornerback Xavier Rhodes:  I love this pick because Rhodes has a chance to become a shut-down corner. He has the most athletic upside of the corners in this class. I’ll say this, if the Vikings can get good quarterback play, they have the talent to contend in the NFC North. They are trying their best not to waste the talents of Adrian Peterson and I applaud them for being aggressive. See below.

26. Green Bay – Defensive End Datone Jones: A tough, aggressive defensive end who held his own against Eric Fisher and should bolster this Packers unit.

27. Houston – Wide Receiver DeAndre Hopkins: I think Hopkins was the safest receiver in this draft and the most likely to help the Texans now and develop into a primary option once Andre Johnson leaves. Hopkins is quick, physical, and reliable. He’ll exploit single coverage and should see plenty of it. If the Texans continue to use a run-heavy offense with a play action component, Hopkins will also get deep the way Hakeem Nicks can. It’s early, but one of my favorite skill position picks in this draft.

28.Denver – Defensive Tackle Sylvester Williams: Quick first step. I’ll let Cecil Lammey tell you about it next Thursday.

29.  Minnesota (trade w/New England) – Playmaker Cordarrelle Patterson: Patterson can return kicks, punts, work from the backfield, and catch passes. He’s a much better pass catcher than some characterize because his drops are not about issues with his hands, but issues of looking the ball into his body before he tries to run. It’s an obvious flaw for a player who might be the best run after the catch player I have seen in college football. This will scare football fans my age, but physically he reminds me a little of Michael Westbrook as a runner – strong agile, fast, and elusive. If he loves football more than Westbrook, he could be a player similar to Dez Bryant but perhaps even better with the ball in his hands and more versatile. I love this kind of move because the Vikings need help now and Patterson may not help immediately as a receiver the way Hopkins could have, the team should be smart enough to find ways to use Patterson in the offense and get big plays.

30 St. Louis – Linebacker Alec Ogletree: The Georgia linebacker will play outside in this scheme and his combination of athleticism and skill as a former safety make him a player that reminds me of former Jeff Fisher linebacker Keith Bullock. Ogletree lacks that refined skill, but I see why the Rams took him.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now.  Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

The 2013 RSP “Mocking the Mock”

0 Comments read Walk on the Wild Side
If football were more like the rasslin' she grew up watching with her grandfather, Paulette Mooney would be more interested in doing a full mock draft. Photo by John Jewell.
If football were more like the rasslin’ she grew up watching with her grandfather, Paulette Mooney would be more interested in doing a full mock draft. Photo by John Jewell.

I don’t do mock drafts. I have nothing against them. If I had more time, I’d probably get into them. They’re entertaining. And you can’t get much more entertaining than a Greg Cosell mock, unless of course you get my wife’s commentary layered over top – Paulette Mooney style with a Billy ‘Superstar’ Graham sensibility.

Reader Advisory: If you approach this NFL event as a Holy Day – avoid this sacrilegious piece. Otherwise . . . 

My wife doesn’t watch football much. They outlawed too many of the techniques that she thought were perfectly reasonable:

  • Clotheslines
  • Spearing
  • Headbutts
  • Eye Gouges
  • Horse Collars

You need to understand that my wife grew up in the country and was raised “country strong,” along the lines of Steve McNair. She tore her Achilles’ in January and ditched the crutches the next day and the walking boot the day after. She’s tired of hearing about “poor Kobe Bryant” because she’s already walking in heels and beginning an exercise regimen. The orthopedist asked if he could write something about her – I’m not kidding.

This is the mentality of a woman who grew up with a grandfather who worked at a sawmill most of his life and a social worker grandmother (think a more sophisticated and urbane Madea from Tyler Perry) who was given all the “hard cases” to straighten out. Farm life, fixing houses, and trying to avoid her grandfather’s tonic of lemon juice and moonshine when she got sick made her country strong. It’s the best I can explain about a woman who ran a 11.2-second, 100 and has a 19-foot long jump to her credit when her ‘warm up’ consisted of a pre-event cigarette.

Jene Bramel calls my wife Paulette Mooney, because much of her commentary veers into the realm of Paul Mooney’s comedy. Now that you understand a little about Paulette Mooney, here’s what went down when I explained a mock draft using Greg Cosell’s as an example.

I could only keep her attention for the first 18 picks before she was off to re-flooring the kitchen and re-facing kitchen cabinets. But if you know her – that’s an impressive number.

1. Kansas City Chiefs – Central Michigan Offensive Tackle, Eric Fisher:

Paulette stares at the photo of Fisher at the top of the Cosell article.

“Is that him? He looks like he could take out a tree – and he’d enjoy it . . . Oh my God, you know all those Army-Navy commercials to brainwash all the kids to join? [She begins to sing] Be proud, be strong . . . maybe it’s just the jersey with all those stars on it messing with me.”

“He’s fast, too,” I tell her.

Paulette rolls her eyes and responds with her best imitation of a sports anchor talking about Robert Griffin.

“Is he articulate, too? I bet he has such a good speaking voice – like Obama.”

My real take on Eric Fisher

Paulette agrees with Joeckel's dad. Photo by Zennie Abraham.
Paulette agrees with Joeckel’s dad. Photo by Zennie Abraham.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars – Texas A&M Offensive Tackle, Luke Joeckel:

Paulette squints at the name and makes a face.

“That’s a trailer park last name. Sounds like a guy I’d watch on ‘My Name is Earl’. I love that show. But he looks like he’s too nice”

“His dad once told him that he could be as nice as he wanted off the field, but to be mean on it.”

“I’m with pops on that philosophy . . . “

“I know – I’m already trying to figure out a way to keep us from getting banned from high school games if we have a son who plays.”

3. Oakland Raiders – Florida Defensive Tackle, Shariff Floyd: 

“Defensive tackle?”

“Yeah, they’re also often called ‘Nose Tackles’ they play across from the guy snapping the ball . . . “

“You mean you can go for people’s noses? I like that . . . ‘Sharrif,’ that’s a city name from up north.”

“Good guess. He’s from Philly – we really need to enter you into a contest.”

Paulette takes a look at Floyd’s highlights on YouTube.

“Some ugly uniforms . . .”

“When it comes to being a resident of Athens, there’s some hope for you yet.”

“He can manhandle some folks though. He and that Fisher guy are some corn-fed boys. You want some con-fed mother&%*@!$%.”

4. Philadelphia Eagles – Oregon Outside Linebacker Dion Jordan:

[youtube=http://youtu.be/FzQBOBoPg04]

“Dion? You gotta be strong to be a dude name ‘Dion’,” Paulette laughs and begins singing. “What do you get when you fall in love . . .”

“That’ ain’t right.”

Paulette looks at highlights of Jordan sacking Brock Osweiler last year.

“Who is that team in black?”

“Arizona State”

“They look like a S.W.A.T. team gone bad.”

“Remember that article I had to write that kept us from going to that Barry Manilow concert you wanted to see? [Editor’s note: Thank you, Football Outsiders]“

“Yeah. . . now I don’t like him. He’s smooth though . . .who was the other guy you had in that article?”

“Barkevious Mingo.”

“Unnhhh. Is he in this mock?”

“Yep.”

“Alright then . . . I got something to say about him and his mom, later.”

My real take on Dion Jordan

5. Detroit Lions – Oklahoma Offensive Tackle Lane Johnson:

“Well, thanks to his mom, he’ll get job with that name once he blows his Achilles’ tendon.”

“Lane? Really, you like that name?”

“That’s a nice name. That’s a dude I’d call if I got a speeding ticket.”

“Why?”

“It sounds professional, but kind of shady – just shady enough that he’ll get you off.”

Eifert and Ike Turner? Only with Paulette Mooney. Photo by Neon Tommy.
Eifert and Ike Turner? Only with Paulette Mooney. Photo by Neon Tommy.

6. Cleveland Browns – Notre Dame Tight End Tyler Eifert:

Paulette bursts into laughter.

“Who came up with the name ‘Tight end’?”

“Players who caught passes and were positioned at the end of the line were called ‘ends.’ The ones further away were ‘split’ from the formation and called ‘split ends’ the ones ‘tight’ to the line . . . “

“There’s nothing right about that name for a position – whether you’re a boy or a girl. And Tyler Eifert? What kind of name is that? All I can think about is Ike Turner saying, ‘Anna Mae!!!'”

“What?”

“I just see Ike whipping Tina’s ass in the back of a limo – I know that’s not funny, but in hindsight it kind of is now that you see Tina getting the last laugh. You know, that Eifert must have some kind of game because if Ike fooled Anna Mae this guy must be the same deal in football terms – a sneaky ass whooper.”

“Well, if any analytics guys read what you just said, they’ll probably say it’s proof positive that they don’t need me to ‘eyeball’ players.’

“Anal-lytics? Tight Ends? Wide Receivers?”

“Yep.”

Paulette collapses onto the coach and curls into the fetal position. Her body is shaking as she muffles the laughter into a pillow.

My real take on Tyler Eifert

7. Arizona Cardinals – West Virginia Wide Receiver, Tavon Austin:

“Tavon Austin.  He’s short isn’t he?”

“If he’s picked here, he’ll be the shortest player ever picked this high.”

“Is he related to Spud Webb – that’s my boy. Even if he played at Wake. That’s all I’ve got to say about Tavon”

My real take on Tavon Austin

Who needs analytics or scouting if you can just tell what he does by his first name? Photo by Crawford Orthodontics.
Who needs analytics or scouting if you can just tell what he does by his first name? Photo by Crawford Orthodontics.

8. Buffalo Bills, Outside Linebacker Barkevious Mingo:

“I bet he’s fast.”

“Why?”

“With that name he did a lot of running as a kid.”

“Oh Lord . . .”

“Tell his momma she needs to call me. We need to have a chat about resumes. How’s he gonna get paid outside of football with a name like that?”

“If he’s one of the [seemingly 5 percent] of NFL players who gets his finances right, he won’t need to. Check this out.”

[youtube=http://youtu.be/260jraqaArs]

“I LIKE him. He’s throwin’ people down and causing fights! That’s how a man gets paid! He has Taye Diggs’ teeth . . .can we fix him up with our daughter?”

“No.”

“Why not? “

“She has a boyfriend.”

“But he can’t even beat her in fantasy football.”

My real take on Barkevious Mingo

9. New York Jets – North Carolina Offensive Guard Jonathan Cooper:

“You’re a rising senior. Stay in school; get your paper.”

“But he’s really good. He stands to make a ton of money.”

“The other paper will still be waiting on you,” she says while looking at the highlights and commenting about the stupidity of long hair in football. “With a college degree he’ll be fine. If he gets hurt in the NFL he won’t get no money either.”

My real take on Jonathan Cooper

10. Tennessee Titans – Alabama Offensive Guard Chance Warmack:

“He’s a trailer boy, but his parents gave him a real name – good for him.”

Paulette guessed the UGA guys by their names. It's an intuitive thing. Photo by C. Vogle.
Paulette guessed the UGA guys by their names. It’s an intuitive thing. Photo by C. Vogle.

11. San Diego Chargers – Georgia Linebacker Alec Ogletree:

“All I can think of is Oglethorpe Street here in town.”

“Well he did play here in town.”

“Really? He’s one of our local kids? Why is he wearing a flag? This isn’t flag football? Georgia is always confusing me.”

My real take on Alec Ogletree

12. Miami Dolphins – Houston Cornerback D.J. Hayden

“Wait a minute, isn’t that who they’re talking about on TV?” Paulette watches Mike Mayock and Paul Burmeister hosting a mock draft on NFL Network.”That blond guy is about a second away from whistling through his teeth every time he uses a word with an ‘s’. A little distracting.”

“I hadn’t noticed.”

“Look at my husband trying to be nice. Good thing there’s no NFL team called the Sioux City-City Slickers. Every dog in a two-mile radius of a sports bar might come running. D.J. Hayden . . . what’s this about an island on the football field. There’s no island”

“Long story.”

“D.J. . . . Dee-Jay . . . All I can think of is this rap song from the 80s where the woman says ‘Dee-Jay please pick up the phone on the request line . . .’

“I knew there’d be an `80s reference dropped somewhere in here.”

“You know it!”

13. Pittsburgh Steelers – Georgia Outside Linebacker Jarvis Jones

“I like that name. It sounds like a Georgia name.”

“Why? [She’s right again]”

“Sounds homey and warm. He’s from some place like Illa – some place nobody ever heard of . . .”

“He plays here in town. I think he is an in-state guy,” I look it up and sure enough, Richland, Georgia.

“Richland? Have you heard of it?

“I’ve lived here all my life and never heard of it.”

Paulette watches some tape of Jones and points to the screen.

“I like sacks. Does he do that a lot?”

“Yep.”

“That’s all I need to know.”

14. Carolina Panthers – Missouri Defensive Tackle Sheldon Richardson:

What’s his major? Chemistry?

“Why? His name?”

“Yeah. Sounds like anything, but ‘Sharrif’.”

“Agriculture?”

“And he’s not finishing?” Paulette looks at the highlights. “Yeah . . . he’s gone.”

15. New Orleans Saints – Utah Defensive Tackle Star Lotulelei”

“He’s one of them corn-fed guys. Do they have corn in Hawaii?”

“He’s Samoan. I guess this talent for names only applies to the continental U.S”

“I like him. He can tear people up.”

My real take on Star Lotulelei

All he needs is Whoppers. Photo by Mike Pettigano.
All he needs is Whoppers. Photo by Mike Pettigano.

16. St. Louis Rams – Alabama Running Back Eddie Lacy:

“That’s my dog.”

“I know, you liked him over the North Carolina guy [Giovani Bernard]”

“You can’t tell me people that . . . nah, you can tell ’em. North Carolina is a basketball school. But that football program is getting better.”

“You know Lacy was out of shape and couldn’t finish his workouts.”

“He’s been eating too much of that supposed, ‘nutritious’ food. He needs some fat back and greens from the farm.”

“Like he needs a heart attack.”

“Just stay off Eddie and that work-out.  He’ll be fine. What’s his address? I’m going to send him some Whoppers with Cheese.”

My real take on Eddie Lacy

17. Pittsburgh Steelers – Alabama Cornerback Dee Milliner:

“Cornerback? They cover the wide recei – ” Paulette erupts into laughter.

My real take on Dee Milliner

18. Dallas Cowboys – Texas Safety Kenny Vaccaro:

“I like the name ‘Vaccaro’. Kennnaaaay . . . VaCCARRRRROOOO. I bet he has the Rico Suave thing happening. Is he covering wide ends, too?”

“No but tight ones.”

Paulette breaks into rhyme:

So please don’t judge a book by its cover
There’s more to being a latin lover
You got to know how to deal with a woman
That won’t let go
The price you pay for being a gigolo

Because he’s Kennnaaayy Vaccarrrrooo.

My real take on Kenny Vaccaro And yes, she really likes that song and likes his game.

Til next year . . .

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Nx64_N4AA04]

For (non-Paulette Mooney) analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Why Buy the RSP?

0 Comments read RSP Publication
A 261-page online publication that provides 1029 pages of play-by-play notes from my evaluation database and 10 percent of your purchase is donated to fight sexual abuse.
A 261-page online publication that provides 1029 pages of play-by-play notes from my evaluation database and 10 percent of your purchase is donated to fight sexual abuse.

Never heard of the RSP? Your first time considering it? Find out why the most common thing I hear from new readers is that this publication dedicated to the study of offensive skill players exceeds expectations with most new readers and has built a loyal following. Hard not to do when you get a pre-draft publication, a post-draft update, and 10 percent of each sale is donated to combat and prevent sexual abuse. See below.

BTW – Best pre-draft scouting report on every conceivable guy [at the skills positions] is by @MattWaldman. Very good read – mattwaldman.com

–Chris Brown, author of Smartfootball.com and Grantland contributor, via Twitter

Q: What is the purpose of the RSP?

The RSP isn’t a draft-prediction publication, it’s an analysis of talent based on a player performance on the field.  This can help draftniks learn more about the talent of players without worrying about the machinations of the draft that are often an entirely different animal from talent evaluation. The evaluation techniques for the RSP are designed to target a player’s athletic skills, positional techniques, and conceptual understanding of the game. It also makes a great resource for fantasy football players.

Q: What makes the RSP different from other draft analysis?

The Rookie Scouting Portfolio is the best guide to the QB, RB, WR, and TE talents in the draft because it goes deeper than any other guide. Because Matt shows his math with hundreds of intensely detailed individual game breakdowns. Because it ranks prospects not just overall, but for each attribute. Because if you read between the lines, Matt is teaching you how to scout these positions, what to look for, how to articulate what you see. It’s a must for any serious football fan, fantasy football player, or anyone that wants to get smarter about watching football.

-Sigmund Bloom, Footballguys co-owner, B/R Draft Analyst, and “On the Couch” host.

I use an extensively documented process and I make the work available for the reader to see – although I don’t send them through a forced death march through the material. As a reader, you don’t have to feel the pain I had writing it – the masochism is provided at your convenience.

Still, the process is important to talk about. It has helped me arrive at high pre-draft grades for many underrated players, including Russell Wilson, Matt Forte, Ahmad Bradshaw, Dennis Pitta, Arian Foster and Joseph Addai. Where it really makes a difference is when I’m studying a player in a game where the competition limits a player’s statistical success and I’m still able to see the talent shine through. Likewise, this process has helped me spot critical issues with players like Stephen Hill, Isaiah Pead, Matt Leinart, Robert Meachem, and C.J. Spiller when others anticipated an early, and often immediate, impact.  

Q: How is The Rookie Scouting Portfolio rooted in best practices?

I managed a large branch of a call center and eventually had responsibility for the performance evaluation of over 70 call centers around the U.S. I began my career from the bottom-up. I was heavily involved in recruiting, hiring, training, and developing large and small teams of employees.I often had to build large teams that competed with a client’s internal call enter and with a fraction of the budget to train and develop in terms of time and money.

We beat them consistently.

One of the biggest reasons was a focus on instituting quality processes. We figured out what was important to us, how to prioritize it’s importance, and how to evaluate our employs in a fair, consistent, and flexible manner to spot the good and bad. Eventually, my company sent me to an organization that provided training for best-practice performance techniques that successful Fortune 500 businesses tailored to their service and manufacturing sectors.

The most important thing I learned that applies to the RSP is best practices for monitoring performance. Although the original purpose for my training was to monitor representatives talking with customers over the phone, these techniques also made sense to apply to personnel evaluation in other ways. Football is one of them.

Think the NFL couldn’t use a best-practice approach? Read about its current evaluation system and what former scouts have to say about the management of that process and you’ll think differently. The RSP approach makes the evaluation process transparent to the reader and helps the author deliver quality analysis.

Another “best practice” I’m implementing in 2013 is “giving back.” Ten percent of each sale in 2013 is going to charity.

Q: The RSP is huge, but you say it is easy to read and navigate. How is it structure? Is it iPad-friendly?

The easiest way to describe the RSP is that it’s an online publication with two main parts:

  • The front part most people read, which is the same length of any draft magazine you see at the newsstand.
  • The back part that my craziest, most devoted, and masochistic readers check out – all the play-by-play analysis of every player I watch.

The RSP has a menu that allows you to jump to various parts of the publication so the crazy detail in the back doesn’t swallow you whole and you never return to reality. I continue to provide the back part because many of my readers love to know that I back up my analysis with painstaking work. In that sense they are also sadists, but being the ultimate masochist that I am – I appreciate their sadism.

“The GoodReader app takes anything I want to read in PDF form, presents it very nicely, and makes the document portable and enjoyable. The encyclopedia that you’ve created (which I absolutely love 25% into it) would require someone to peer into his or her computer/laptop screen for a very long time. On an iPad inside that app it bookmarks your place and makes reading long files a joy…AND PORTABLE.”

-Ray Calder

Q: I heard the RSP gives back to charity. How? 

Beginning in 2012, I started donating 10 percent of every Rookie Scouting Portfolio purchase to charity. This is something I have wanted to do for a long time. Once the Penn State scandal broke, I decided to send the funds to the program Darkness to Light.

Darkness to Light – Excerpt from their mission statement: “Darkness to Light is a national organization and initiative. Our mission is to empower people to prevent child sexual abuse. Darkness to Light’s public awareness campaign seeks to raise awareness of the prevalence and consequences of child sexual abuse.”

Q: What do readers think of the RSP?

I collect these emails like one of my favorite pizza joints in Colorado collects napkin drawings from customers and places them all over the walls of its restaurant. If you have one you want to send me, please feel free. I’ll add them my list. Here are some of them below:

“If you don’t buy the RSP, be prepared to get dominated in your rookie draft by someone that did.”

– Jarrett Behar, Staff writer for Dynasty League Football and creator of Race to the Bottom.

“In complete awe of the 2007 Rookie Scouting Portfolio via @MattWaldman — Incredibly in-depth analysis that required time & football smarts”

– Ryan Lownes, Draftnik (with strong online analysis in his own right)

Any diehard #Dynasty #fantasyfootball fan should go get @MattWaldman’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio bit.ly/I4fOa2 You’ll thank me later

-@JamesFFBNFL Draft analyst, enthusiast, and writer for DraftBreakdown.com and Bleacher Report.

“For someone like me who doesn’t closely follow the college game, there is nothing I have found even vaguely measuring up to your thoroughness and point by point analysis of the draftable rookies. Among my favorite things is that at the core you rely on play rather than comparing stats produced or combine numbers. Measurables I can get anywhere, but numbers offer little perspective on what they mean or what factors together created them. I want to know what a guy looks like out there, who plays fast – rather than who runs fast in shorts with no one to dodge or avoid. Which WRs can and can’t run routes or consistently get separation or catch with their hands or fight off defenders to make contested catches. Your exhaustive package gives me a basis to work from including a careful look at every significant player. I can read and add the views and comments and stats I want to like ornaments on the Christmas tree – where that tree is the foundation of player abilities that you weave together into a ranked whole.

I have no way to know how right or wrong your conclusions are. You certainly don’t shy away from controversial evaluations. But overall, for just plain understanding of who the rookies are, how they play and what we might expect in the NFL – I don’t know of anything close. After reading this tome, I would feel blind and naked walking into a rookie draft next year without having that insight. My huge thanks!”

–Catbird, Footballguys.com message boards

“Love your work. I’ve subscribed to your RSP for the past 3 years and it is my bible for dynasty league rookie drafts.”

– David Liu

“In our business, we are able to access many different types of reference materials. The Rookie Scouting Portfolio stands above the rest for one simple fact: it is more comprehensive than anything else I have seen. Matt Waldman is head and shoulders the best fantasy football expert I have had on the air, and his expertise starts well before the players get to the NFL with analysis and game film study of the incoming rookie class. I can’t recommend the RSP highly enough.”

– Ian Furness
Host, Sports Radio 950 KJR
Seattle, WA

“All I can really say at first is “Wow!” There is just a TON of great and useful information packed into that report. I thought I’d give it a quick glance during my lunch hour and I found myself reading quite a bit of it over the next 2 hours. I like the way everything is laid out. It’s easy to understand and covers all the items necessary to make it a top notch scouting report for the fantasy footballer.

– Tim Huckaby

“IMHO this is a MUST read. Matt really does the work and tells it the way he sees it. Had a couple of GREAT picks this year with Austin Collie and and I think Stafford. In prior years, he has lead me to Ray Rice in a PPR no less and Mike Sims Walker… If you are like me in a Zealots league, go back and read the prior years as it helps with the RFA/UFA process.”

– Tony Madeira

Hey Matt,

Just thought you would want to know that I enjoyed the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio so much that I had to buy the other six years, to see what you had to say about previous players. I’ve been playing fantasy football for over 20 years (started at age 11) and I can’t tell you how refreshing it is to see someone put this much effort into analyzing prospects skills, and then filtering that info back to their potential fantasy value.

Not sure if you have a running testimonial page but if your ever inclined to do so, feel free to use this email as one, if you wish.

Not trying to kiss your butt or anything but your work is really an inspiration for someone like myself.

thank you for your efforts,

Sean Douglas, FantasyInfo.com’

Download the 2013 RSP or purchase past issues (2006-2012)

 

Futures: WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Playmaker

0 Comments read Players, Wide Receiver
Patterson may not be a Playmaker according to Football Outsider's score, but he is one in my book. Photo by Nashville Corps.
Photo by Nashville Corps.

Cordarrelle Patterson may not be a playmaker according to Football Outsider’s Playmaker Score, but the elusive receiver with skills as a receiver that many top prospects-turned-busts lacked is worth the risk in my book. Find out where I think the Combine, production, and film study have a place in this discussion of this versatile, athletic, wildcard.

When it comes to evaluating football talent, I believe analytics can be a part of the conversation. The Playmaker Score is a good example.

I think the Playmaker Score is a nice attempt at data mining where Vince Verhei has reverse-engineered a formula with the hope of developing a successful model to predict future results. The score does enough to have value in discussions about specific wide receiver prospects, but Playmaker is not the entire conversation.

I believe player evaluation can be likened to a three-legged, wooden table:

  • Technical skill
  • College production
  • Athleticism

If one of these legs is missing or not factored into an evaluation enough, the table doesn’t function as it should. The fourth factor is character, but I think it’s best considered as liquid -– either it enhances, like a wood stain, or degrades, like water spot.

Scouting is such a hit-or-miss process because no one has figured out a way to consistently make all three legs of the table functional for every player evaluation. Nor can they predict if the player’s character will enhance or ruin the “table.”

The Playmaker Score has a grim outlook for this group of wide receivers. In contrast, many scouts and analysts tout the position as deep and talented. Before going any further, here is Vince’s overview of Playmaker:

When we first devised our Playmaker Score projection system to predict NFL success for wide receivers, we looked at individual collegiate production only. A second version added team statistics to account for players who might have seen their numbers inflated by prolific passing offenses. This year, with Playmaker Score 3.0, we’ve added Combine data for the first time. Now we’re measuring not just football skills, but raw physical talent.

We’ve made one other fundamental change to Playmaker Score, and it involves the way collegiate data is handled. In the past, using career totals considerably underrated those players who were so spectacular that they skipped their senior seasons and entered the draft early, while using per-game numbers depressed the ratings for guys who had lots of one- and zero-catch games as freshmen and sophomores before exploding as juniors and seniors. We tried to get around this by using a mix of career totals and per-game data, but the results were a little confusing and somewhat illogical. So we’ve gone back to the drawing board, and we’re now using the numbers from each player’s best season. This makes the most sense because it rewards the biggest stars at the expense of more mediocre players who pad their statistics with multiple starting seasons. Obviously, there’s now a danger of overestimating one-year wonders, but we’re working on some methods to correct for that in the future.

We checked the numbers for every receiver drafted from 2005 to 2009, a group of 149 players. That gave us five years’ worth of recent history, while giving every player at least three years to break out in the NFL. For each player, we determined their NFL success by dividing their career receiving yardage by the number of seasons that had passed since, whether they were still in the league or not. We also compared their Combine numbers to their NFL statistics and checked which were most accurate when it came to predicting NFL success.

Playmaker Score addresses the basic question of how good the quarterback is when it comes to giving his receiver opportunities for production. However, I think zeroing in on passes per game as a factor makes Playmaker Score a slave to a specific kind of receiver production that doesn’t tell the entire story.

Problems Endemic to Football Evaluation

Playmaker does not fully address all the dimensions of production that can make a wide receiver a playmaker. Yards after catch is a significant example, although not a purposeful oversight. The staff here at Football Outsiders would love to have this data, but the college game does not supply it in an easily available format.

However, this is part of the reason why I think the revised 2011 Playmaker Scores missed on A.J. Green (227 points) and Randall Cobb (136 points), but it liked Jonathan Baldwin (464 points) and Torrey Smith (448 points). I think Baldwin and Smith played in offenses that were suited to what Playmaker Score rewards players for: red-zone production and longer plays from pitch-to-catch. It doesn’t factor in ball carrying of any sort, and that’s part of what it missed about Green and Cobb.

I liked Smith’s prospects, but I wasn’t high on Baldwin. One of the reasons reflects what is missing from Playmaker: it is a formula based on production and athleticism (as measured by certain sprints and jumps, at least) but it doesn’t account for technical skill.

However, I’m jumping the gun on technique. The athleticism factor also requires more discussion.

The way Playmaker uses Combine data is a problem endemic to the area of football evaluation. I believe the primary function of the Combine should first be to determine which players have the baseline speed, strength, quickness, and size to perform at an NFL level. Instead, there is too much emphasis placed on stronger-faster-higher-longer.

Playmaker’s inclusion of Combine measurements assumes that the better (certain) Combine numbers, the better the player. I think most people make this assumption, and it’s easy to do: Some people believe Calvin Johnson is a better player than Dez Bryant because he jumps higher, runs faster, and does it in a bigger body.

Athleticism is a baseline requirement, but there is a point where a player’s value can be inaccurately inflated or depressed because technical skill or capacity to learn the game isn’t properly accounted for. To give examples, we have A.J. Green on one hand, and Robert Meachem on the other.

Green had actually scored high in the previous version of Playmaker (v2.0) but does not fare well in the current version because of the Combine metrics. His NFL Combine metrics were NFL-quality, but not stellar. Yet what the formula misses, game observation catches: aplayer who gets the most from his athleticism because he integrates his physical and technical skill sets at a high level to make plays.

Meachem, on the other hand, was a fast prospect, but he couldn’t catch the ball with his hands away from his body. I admired his efforts as a senior at Tennessee to extend his arms to the football, but he often had to revert to a trap technique.

One example I recall was a game in Tennessee against LSU. Meachem dropped three passes in the first quarter alone while trying to use proper hands technique. He then reverted to a trap technique for the rest of the game.

While I admired Meachem for trying, some technical skills are more difficult to learn at this stage of football than others. Receivers who don’t make receptions with their hands away from their frames are unlikely to acquire these skills when they transition to the pro game.

This issue is what I would term a fatal error. Difficulty securing the ball after contact from a defender during the act of the reception can also be a fatal error when it comes to evaluating the technical skill potential of a prospect.

Although Meachem eventually made some strides to improve this skill, he has never been comfortable enough to make a complete transition. He has not become the impact player commensurate with his first-round grade. These two flaws were why I didn’t like Meachem’s chances of doing that, and he proved me right.

As for other examples from 2011, I loved Green (my No. 1 rated receiver in 2011), Randall Cobb (No. 3) and Torrey Smith (No. 5). In contrast, Jonathan Baldwin (No.13) was an overrated commodity in my book. Green, Cobb and Smith demonstrated excellent skill versus contact and both Green and Cobb were strong players after the catch. Baldwin’s hands techniques were spotty and his technique and conceptual execution of routes were inconsistentat best.

I think a better way to view measures of athleticism is to, as I said, first assess if it meets the baseline requirements to play in the NFL. Then assess if that player also meets baselines for skill level/capacity to learn the skills.

Once an evaluator establishes that the prospect has the basic tools, I think the fast-stronger-longer-higher quality of the Combine measurements become a refining characteristic to the evaluation process. The same goes for productivity metrics.

The problem is that we want to throw these tools into the evaluation process at a premature stage. As a result, the data can often overestimate (or underestimate) the value of players.

Cordarrelle Patterson is a good example . . .  Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Boiler Room: Michigan State RB Le’Veon Bell

0 Comments read Players, Reads Listens Views, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Running Back
This piece on Bell is unlikely to convince you to change your opinion of him, but it does underscore why teams will be forced to make a decision and stand by it. Photo by Matt Radickal.
This piece on Bell is unlikely to convince you to change your opinion of him, but it does underscore why teams will be forced to make a decision and stand by it. Photo by Matt Radickal.

A polarizing player in the draft community engenders endless debate – even after we see that player on an NFL field. If he succeeds his backers believe that the detractors over analyzed the situation. If the prospect struggles the  naysayers will claim the backers didn’t see enough. In this sense Le’Veon Bell is a polarizing player in this draft.

The Boiler Room series is designed to be succinct with delivering the goods about a player. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play – especially when a player invokes a major difference of opinion. Yet, if I need a play to add to the highlight reel that will help a team make a decision where to slot Le’Veon Bell on its board, I have a nomination – in this case, I have three. These plays demonstrate Bell’s, strength, burst, quickness, and agility – but do they show enough to settle the debate about Bell’s quickness?

This run against Minnesota is a beautiful combination of moves that rival any Madden video game replay.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyflNp4qTO8?start=27rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Bell slides inside the double team from his tackle and tight end and takes two steps to set up a spin move inside a block at the hash, and then a step and plant to spin outside. I doubt Bell will be able to replicate this play again in his career, because I think it’s a product of his ability, the play, and the defense, but he is the first back I’ve seen execute a combo of inside and outside spins in this proximity of each other in quite a while and that counts for something.

Comment on the size of the hole, the blocking, and the defense all you want, but Bell’s spins were tight, quick, and balanced. He also kept his footing to gained 10 yards after the second spin. If Bell can demonstrate this kind of skill in the NFL, he’ll be a lead back whose only limitations will be his development in the passing game.

Bell’s supporters point to a powerful, 6’1″,230-lb. runner who has the frame to rival Ronnie Brown, but detractors see him as a sluggish player who only does good work through wide creases so he can build momentum and bully defenders after contact. The play above began with a wide crease. So does this one below.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceZo8Vf7fnc?start=12rel=0&w=560&h=315]

The reads on this gap style play were straight forward and the blocking opened a huge backside crease to the inside, which Bell hits hard and gets down hill. I like the burst I see here, but his detractors may say the acceleration is deceptive due to the width of the hole.

Those who believe in Combine measurements will say that Bell’s 6.75-second, three-cone time was faster than Doug Martin and Stevan Ridley and the same as Jahvid Best, a back 31 pounds lighter. If LaGarrette Blount could pass protect and be a good citizen, there might not have been a need for a running back in Tampa Bay last year and Blount had much slower agility times than Bell. I thought Blount was quick enough. I haven’t seen anything to dissuade me about Bell’s athleticism.

I think the most balanced criticism I’ve heard is that Bell makes too many decisions like a scat back. They say if Bell can mature enough to temper his use of spin moves, hurdles, and reversals of field and only use them as a change-up to a powerful, downhill style, he has a chance to become a valuable starter.

This play below is a good demonstration of the power Bell flashes when he keeps it simple.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceZo8Vf7fnc?start=55rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Good blocking to the edge, but Bell is fast enough to exploit it and also strong enough to push the pile for extra yards. The pad level and leg drive  are positives here. If Bell can show more often when and when not to use the skills you’ve seen from all three highlights, then he’ll have a productive NFL career.

These plays won’t settle any debates. If you believe these plays are a product of his line and inferior competition then you won’t view Bell as one of the better running back prospects in this draft. If you believe Bell will have the quickness to execute these plays consistently in the NFL then you think the Spartans runner is an underrated commodity who belongs near the top-tier of runners.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Boiler Room Series: USC WR Robert Woods

0 Comments read Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Wide Receiver
Woods game has a quiet intensity. See below.
Woods game has a quiet intensity. See below.

Compared to his peers in this 2013 wide receiver draft class, Robert Woods has a “quiet game.” The USC Trojan is an average-sized receiver with good quickness, but his measurements as an athlete is nothing special. Yet, Woods is one of the best prospects at his position – a wide receiver class that I contend is a deep one.

I think where we often miss with prospect evaluation – whether you’re a scout, media, proponent of data mining/analytics , or a fan – is the notion that stronger-faster-quicker-taller is better. I have been gradually arriving at the perspective that Combine measurements are best used as a baseline: Does the player have the minimum strength-speed-quickness-size to compete in the NFL?

The level of these qualities only come into play once you can feel comfortable with the conceptual and technical promise of this player at his position. Otherwise, you just have a tall, strong, fast, and quick player trying to play his position and failing in dramatic fashion.

Robert Woods may have a quiet game as an athlete but just like music, some of the most stirring moments are the quietest.

A series I started this year at the RSP blog is The Boiler Room. One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play. Yet, if I need a play to add to the highlight reel that will help a team make a decision where to slot Robert Woods on its board, this is my nomination. Watch just the first five seconds and pause it.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/TiihTyOR9VU]

At first glance, this is garden-variety hitch under a defender’s cushion, which Woods breaks in conjunction with Matt Barkley’s throw based on a presnap read of the defender’s position. Woods does a good job driving off the line with his pads over his knees to force the cornerback to account for a deeper route before the receiver stops his route well under the defender at the first-down marker. The makes the catch falling towards the boundary after taking a hit from the defender.

It’s a good play, but it’s quietly a far more impressive display of athleticism than a tape measure or stopwatch can capture.

WoodsA1

Woods takes an outside release and drives off the line as the cornerback peeks into the backfield. Woods stops and turns back to the quarterback once he gets depth beyond the first-down marker, but he could have made a more dramatic change of direction by sinking his hips and making a more violent plant of the front leg at the top of his stem.

WoodsA2

Although his break isn’t one that will earn high marks from the Russian, Chinese, Japanese, French, British, Polish-Philadelphian (Jaworski), or the Fort Lauderdale (Irvin) judges, playing wide receiver is only like figure skating in the respect that both range of athlete own their share of drama. In football, there are times where it doesn’t matter if technique is sloppy; if the job gets done then everybody is happy.

WoodsA3

Woods makes his break and rather than breaking to the ball, he retreats a step to the sideline. If Matt Barkley intends to throw the ball to Woods’ outside shoulder, this is an effective break to gain horizontal separation on the corner and maintain the depth of his route.

WoodsA4

I may not love his body positioning as he waits for the ball, but a common thing Woods does well is get his shoulders square to the ball and his hands away from his body to make the catch. I believe many coaches would prefer to see Woods attack this ball from his break rather than wait for it so he can avoid any possibility of the corner jumping the route. In this case, Woods’ body does not provide a good barrier to the football if the corner got a better jump.

Another common aspect to Woods’ game as a pass catcher is that he’ll often make a slight adjustment as he makes the catch to turn his body to shield the defender as he’s making the reception.

WoodsA5

WoodsA6

Just before Woods gets hit, the receiver turns his hip towards the oncoming defender. The contact from the defender is hard enough that Woods cannot secure the ball to his chest. This is where the first angle of the video doesn’t reveal the difficulty of this reception.

WoodsA7

As Woods falls towards the sideline, he manages to plant his left arm on the ground while holding the ball behind his head.

WoodsA8

Woods finishes the play with his right arm pinning the ball behind his head, turning to the side to maintain possession of the ball. Also note the side that Woods turns to after he hits the ground.

WoodsA9

Why would Woods turn to this side? Was it luck or quick thinking? I believe Woods turned to this side because if he turned to the opposite gravity sends the ball away from his finger tips and if he loses his grip there’s nothing else he can do to secure the ball. But the direction Woods turns allows him to us his forearm as support if the ball has any movement before he reaches the sideline. He also does a good job of producing the ball with control after the catch to sell the reception.

WoodsA10

Some of you may note that if the ball moves in the NFL at this point, it’s not a catch. This is true, but the fact that Woods reacts this quickly and intelligently to an unusual situation is something we commonly see with good NFL starters and I would advise not to write it off as luck.

This play alone is not an indicator of Woods becoming a good NFL starter, but you know I have trouble just showing one play – take a look at this highlight package of plays as a freshman against Stanford. Many of them are against No.9 – a cornerback by the name of Richard Sherman.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/JGDr-e3E_iE]

There are enough plays like this one from the Boiler Room and games like the YouTube package above that Woods’ portfolio shows a knack for making adjustments in tight coverage. Plays like these are more routine for starters in the professional ranks. Woods’ hand-eye coordination, spatial awareness, and comfort with physical play may not broadcast at a high volume, but the intensity of the message is as strong as any receiver in this class.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

No-Huddle Series: Iowa WR Keenan Davis

0 Comments read Players, Wide Receiver
If Davis can hold onto the ball after the catch as well as he holds onto after contact in the act of the reception, he could have a nice NFL career. Photo by Go Iowa State.
If Davis can hold onto the ball after the catch as well as he holds onto after contact in the act of the reception, he could have a nice NFL career. Photo by Go Iowa State.

What if I told you Keenan Davis is a safer pick than Tavon Austin? I know, I can’t even say it with a straight face. Although an attention-getting joke, don’t laugh off Davis’ game. The 6’2″, 216-pound Iowa receiver is a skillful player whose game fits with a greater variety of NFL offensive styles than the West Virginia hybrid.

Austin is a scheme-dependent player at this stage of the NFL’s evolutionary cycle. This is not a knock on his skills as it is a statement about smaller players with diverse skill sets. At this point, an NFL team will have to use him from the slot or the backfield to maximize his statistical upside. I think it is unlikely that Austin has the physical dimensions to become a full-time outside receiver – the most important being a decent, but not fantastic vertical leap of 32 inches.

If Austin had Davis’ 38-inch vertical I’d be more inclined to say the West Virginia star has Steve Smith-like potential. Of course, no one is Steve Smith. If there was one guy I wanted to take for the RSPWP2 to pair with Carson Palmer it was the Carolina receiver. He’s nearing the final years of his career, but he’s as ferocious a receiver as I have seen play.

Davis is some ferocity to his game. Combine that with 4.48-speed (40-yard dash), and I think we’re looking at a player who not only can make an NFL team and contribute in four- or five-receiver sets early in his career, but he has the upside to develop into a  starter on the outside.

Like Connecticut tight end Ryan Griffin, Davis is a good player in a draft class stocked with talent at his position who can thrive in most NFL systems because he plays a physical brand of football.

Over the Middle

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGBVbPgaGgY&start=13rel=0&w=560&h=315]

On this 3rd-and-seven play against Pittsburgh, Davis is the outside receiver on the twin side of the formation working off press coverage to the middle of the field. Many receivers get distracted with contact on quick-hitting passes, but not Davis. The replay shows Davis using his outside arm to ward off the corner before turning to make a nice adjustment on a high throw in the middle of the field.

Best yet, Davis makes a money catch, taking a shoulder from a linebacker after he exposes his body to the interior defender and still hangs onto the ball.  These are must-plays for offenses to sustain drives. They are also difficult plays to make, which is one of the reasons why spreading the field and going to smaller, quicker athletes is a trend – if you can’t find one of these tough guys you better find receivers defenders have difficulty laying a finger on.

On the Perimeter

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGBVbPgaGgY&start=83rel=0&w=560&h=315]

What I like about this catch is that Davis doesn’t make his best leap towards the ball, which gives the cornerback a chance to play the ball. Although the defender misses his attempt to swat the pass, Davis still manages to snare the ball in traffic while airborne and falling towards the boundary. Focus is a consistent theme in Davis’ game and I value this from a receiver because tight coverage, impending hits, leaving one’s feet for the ball, or working routes near the boundary present a lot of distractions from the primary mission: catching the football.

A bonus is the hand strength to maintain possession despite the cornerback’s attempts to pry the ball loose on the way to the ground. There’s a toughness to Davis’ game that I think will earn him a roster spot and give him a chance to refine his game.

“Bad-Ball” Receiver

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGBVbPgaGgY&start=213 rel=0&w=560&h=315]

The replay of his slant reveals how Davis has to reach to his back shoulder in tight coverage to make a play on the ball before taking another hit. This isn’t a dramatic adjustment, but I see wide receivers at every level drop this kind minor adjustment all the time.

Vertical Route

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Gg22Y28AjQ&start=141rel=0&w=560&h=315]

This 2nd-and-26 go-route against single, press coverage is another nice example of Davis’ skill at adjusting to the ball while working off contact. Although I have seen Davis drop his share of passes after contact, there are generally two types of plays where this happens:

  1. High passes where the defender has position to knock the ball loose as Davis extends for the target (and generally bad ball location).
  2. Just after Davis makes the reception and he’s running down field without the ball secured to his body.

Play No.2 is better defined as a fumble and I predict if Davis doesn’t make a squad it will have to do with him continuing to display poor ball security (a product of effort you like to see, but not to the detriment of losing possession for the offense).

On this play, Davis manages to work outside the corner and maintain his balance after some hand fighting with the ball in the air to make a diving play with his back to the quarterback.  As you see, focus and skill after contact is the line that connects these plays. Davis isn’t an exciting prospect compared to most of the receivers I have in my top 20 at the position, but he’s a workmanlike player whose quarterback wasn’t adept at pinpoint ball location.

If Davis shores up the ball security issues and continues to demonstrate skill after contact, he has a chance to become a good pro.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 4/19/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
If Davis can hold onto the ball after the catch as well as he holds onto after contact in the act of the reception, he could have a nice NFL career. Photo by Go Iowa State.
Coming this weekend – a No-Huddle edition featuring Iowa WR Keenan Davis. A better prospect than you may think. Photo by Go Iowa State.

More draft analysis on the way from RSPHQ – including more from the No-Huddle Series and Boiler Room and my take on Cordarrelle Patterson from the perspective of Football Outsiders and its Playmaker Score. If you’re new to the RSP blog, welcome to my Friday post Reads Listens Views, my chance to share things I’ve been checking out in recent weeks – football and non-football alike.

Listens

Joseph Tawadros plays the Oud, which is the daddy of the Lute. It’s a beautiful, soulful instrument and this tune is has a steady simmer worth a listen.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/aND8DYDfXQU]

Thank You

I think we’ve all been in a situation where you have the ability to help a friend, but you don’t think he wants your assistance. However, it’s obvious that you’d be just the person to help and he never utters a peep to indicate he wants it. Sigmund Bloom had that experience with me in recent years. He kidded me recently about me never asking him to write anything to tell my readers why they should buy the RSP.

I was embarrassed. I just figured most folks knew Bloom as my friend and colleague so it made more sense to share testimonials from folks who, relative to Bloom, don’t know me from Adam. But I am honored that Bloom wants to share his view of the RSP. Especially when he publishes an always excellent collection of Scouting Reports and rankings. There’s his great work at B/R and the iconic, Bloom 100. If you’re a fantasy owner, the Bloom 100 is a MUST-READ because its writer distills each class into a simple list of tiers with a rookie draft in mind. It takes a strong grasp of player talent and fantasy football dynamics to pull off as well as Bloom.

Here’s Bloom’s thoughts on the RSP and I’d like to thank him for asking me to share it:

The Rookie Scouting Portfolio is the best guide to the QB, RB, WR, and TE talents in the draft because it goes deeper than any other guide. Because Matt shows his math with hundreds of intensely detailed individual game breakdowns. Because it ranks prospects not just overall, but for each attribute. Because if you read between the lines, Matt is teaching you how to scout these positions, what to look for, how to articulate what you see. It’s a must for any serious football fan, fantasy football player, or anyone that wants to get smarter about watching football.

If you haven’t bought the RSP before, I can say with pride that you’ll get as much out of it as I put into it – and I put everything I can into it. My readers will tell you they love it. If you’re on fence, I am confident that you’ll realize this is one of those cases where there’s little hype to what I’m saying here. Plus, I donate 10 percent of each sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit whose mission is to prevent and combat sexual abuse through community training and awareness.

Download the RSP now and know that with your purchase, you also get access to the Post-Draft publication when I announce it available within the week after the NFL Draft. At the very least, follow this blog click on the link on the left to follow and you’ll receive email updates when I post new articles. Then consider supporting the site (and do yourself a favor at the same time) by downloading the publication.

Views

Mine Kafon – Thanks to Jeff Haseley for sharing this invention, which is a sobering reminder that we’re all special people and special people are dying everyday around the world due to explosives.

Football Reads

Listens

The Dave Holland Quintet is one of the best bands in music today. They are at the top of my list of groups to see.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/E2qIZ-BwiE4]

Non-Football Reads

  • Serenity Amidst A Sea Of Haze – Adrian Landin is a world traveler and blogger of his experiences who sometimes hits me up for fantasy advice when Internet is available. Landin’s blog is a collection of excellent photography. This post is about witnessing 12,999 Buddhist monks walking the main street in a city in Thailand. I think what he captures is worth sharing. Especially if you need 10 minutes to feel transported from your current surroundings.
  • How Quickly the U.S. Got Fat  – It ain’t pretty, but it ain’t over either – we can do something about this one if we choose.
  • The 10-Year Hoodie – One U.S. company’s commitment to make a quality product built to last the way things used to before much of Corporate America went beyond greedy and turned into a virus.
  • Think Those Chemicals Have Been Tested? – Many Americans assume that the chemicals in their shampoos, detergents and other consumer products have been thoroughly tested and proved to be safe. This assumption is wrong.
  • U.S. Practiced Torture after 9-11 – And it put our troops in greater danger.