Date Archives June 2013

Mirror Images: Dez Bryant-Patrick Peterson (A New Series)

June 12, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Dez Bryant by A.J. Guel — Dez Bryant. Photo by A.J. Guel.

A game I’ve been playing in my head in recent months is to take an offensive player and find his mirror image on the opposite side of the line of scrimmage. For example, Joey Galloway and Darrell Green were stylistically mirror images of each other. Both had amazing speed that sometimes overshadowed their underrated displays of craft at their respective positions over the course of lengthy and productive careers. Now I’m putting it on the blog and having some of my friends play.

Intro

When Cian Fahey asked me to contribute a couple of paragraphs about cornerback Patrick Peterson for a collaborative piece he’s writing with the likes of Eric Stoner, Chris Burke, Allen Dumonjic, and Joe Goodberry, I pulled this idea of describing Peterson through the lens Dez Bryant – a player he’s trained to face – and typed it on the page. It got me thinking pairing offensive and defensive players as mirror images would be a fun way to pass the time as my fellow writers and I wait for the car trip of our football writing lives to get to its preseason destination.

I posed the idea to Fahey and Stoner and added Ryan Riddle and Jene Bramel to the mix. There are no grand designs here; we’re just passing time and I’m keeping it a free-form process. If you disagree with the takes, have a take of your own, or want to build on the idea, post a comment or email me (mattwaldmanrsp@gmail.com).

Patrick Peterson and Dez Bryant

Fear has a variety of forms. There’s the sense of dread that something is about to go wrong, but you can’t see it. Or, an immediate blinding terror where you’re watching events unfold as if you’re not in your body (I hope most of you haven’t experienced it).

And then there’s fear of a more seductive quality. Imagine walking through a field and emerging from the woods is a panther – graceful, powerful, and transfixing. You know you’re five seconds from pissing your pants, but you’re compelled to stand there and admire one of nature’s perfect specimens from a rare (and dangerous) vantage point.

I think a panther emerging from the brush can’t be much different from seeing Peterson or Bryant emerging from the tunnel.

Both players have the grace of a large cat. They seem to possess and innate understanding of how to uncoil in the air and attack the ball. As ball carriers, they’re balls of muscle gliding across the turf. Glancing blows fly off them like sparks exploding off steel.

Put either one on the opposite end of the field of the punter and there’s a chance they make 11 guys look like elementary school kids losing at ‘Gator’.

Just as Bryant has the strength to open the ground game with his blocking, Peterson is a disruptive tackler at the line of scrimmage. The Cardinals cornerback can ruin a receiver’s timing on short timing routes the way the Cowboys receiver makes life miserable if he’s the first to get his hands on a defender.

Where they have to improve is the diagnostic aspects of the game. Their feel for the game is strong, but they’re learning that they cannot lean on this anymore and remain great at the NFL level. When they master the mental side of the game, they’re capable of dominant seasons.

Right now they just dominate games. It’s the difference between fear and terror.

McFadden-Murray Disciple: RB Charles Sims – The Film

June 12, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman, Players, Running Back

Charles Sims is a disciple of the McFadden-Murray school of running back. Today I’m going to show you why.

If I were an unabashed opportunist, I’d claim that Darren McFadden’s disappointing career validated my pre-draft concerns about the Raiders back. But I’m not about being right for the wrong reasons. I still believe I missed on vital parts of McFadden’s game – aspects that make him a viable NFL talent. Recognizing the error of my ways helped me make a stronger assessment of Demarco Murray.

While not identical, McFadden and Murray in the same school of running back style. Soon-to-be-former Houston running back Charles Sims reminds me of these two runners. I have more to see before I can compare his athleticism to these two NFL starters, but it’s good enough for Sims to follow suit.

This 2012 contest against UAB is a good illustration of what makes Sims a good prospect as well as the lingering concerns that make staying in school a wise choice for 2013.

Sims’ Running Style

At 6’1″, 213 pounds, Sims is a taller back. It’s these dimensions and his gait that make him a similar type of runner as McFadden and Murray.

McFadden’s ability to bend runs at high speeds was something I downplayed in my pre-draft assessment. So were his suddenness and aggression in a gap scheme. Although I think Murray is a good zone runner with skill to change direction with sharper cuts, Murray and McFadden both tend to “bend runs” rather than make sharp cuts.

There is also a similarity in their pad level although I think Murray has always been more consistent with his. After seeing McFadden illustrate his style could work, it helped me see that Murray’s gait would work just fine in the NFL. I didn’t worry about his balance the way some of my peers did.

When I watch Sims, I see a blend of both players. All three players are versatile, three-down options with big-play ability. While they are nightmares for defenses if they get their pads square and a head of steam, their styles limit some of their creativity at the line of scrimmage compared to runners like Maurice Jones Drew, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, or even Ahmad Bradshaw.

But that’s the beauty of the position; there is not just one successful style.

Speed and Acceleration

The game I’m using to illustrate Sims’ skill is a 29-touch 171-yard performance against UAB. Despite the impressive box score, I’m often more fond of seeing plays where the player in question encounters difficulty. It’s why I don’t shy away from poor box score performances if the touch-count is high enough.

Sims’ first carry is a good example of the tough sledding he had early in the contest: A two-yard gain from an uptempo play on 2nd and 3 with 12:34 in the first quarter. Houston runs an outside zone to the right and the blocking scheme fails.

The backside blocks fail to stop the pursuit and the right tackle is not fast enough to contain the edge defender. As Sims reaches the right hash, it becomes a footrace with the edge defender penetrating two yards into the backfield untouched. Because of the cornerback and linebacker free behind the edge defender, there’s no room for a cutback.

There are five defenders in this picture with an angle on Sims and only one lineman on his feet. Even that lineman has been beat. Yet Sims still manages to outrun the defensive end , turn the corner, and gain two yards.

This play should have been a loss if not for Sims’ speed, which earns the Cougars a manageable 3rd-and-one.

Like McFadden and Murray, Sims is a dangerous player in space because of his acceleration and it doesn’t take much green grass for him to turn on the turbo boosters. Here is an eight-yard gain on a 2nd-and-eight swing-screen from a 3×1 receiver, 10 personnel shotgun with 6:30 in the first half.

Sims flanks the trips side of the QB. The play is a quick-developing outside screen pass with two wide receivers blocking in the flat as the middle trips receiver motions across the formation as misdirection to fool the defense into taking steps away from the actual flow of the play.

Sims swings to the flat, catches the ball over his inside shoulder with his hands and does a good job of tucking under his outside arm as he makes a fast, down-hill cut about three yards behind the line of scrimmage.

Sims accelerates well and splits the defensive back in the slot getting ahead of the defensive end working down the line of scrimmage. These are two strong angles by defenders and the Cougars runner manages to beat them both.

Although the end wraps Sims from behind, the burst is good enough for the back to earn eight yards and the first down.

Sims’ acceleration can catch opponents off guard. This 36-yard streak up the right sideline with 4:35 in the half is a great example. The play is a 2nd-and-10 pass at the UAB 41 with Sims beginning the play flanking the quarterback to the opposite side of a quads set.

Sims motions from the backfield to the right side where he is the single receiver and draws a cornerback playing single coverage. At the snap, Sims demonstrates good footwork to dip inside-out and earns strong separation on the corner by the time he’s 15 yards down field.

There’s even a nice use of his hands to swipe past the corner to get outside without a jam.

The runner makes the grab at the 15, turning back to the football and waiting on it just long enough to give the defender time to recover. The beaten corner wraps Sims at the 10 and drags the runner to the ground inside the 5. A better throw and this is an easy touchdown.

Good Ball Security Form, But Execution Needs Improvement

Sims typically carries the ball high and tight, but he’s experiencing lapses of concentration when it comes to his ball security at various stages of runs. Here is a 2nd-and-10 run from the Houston 25 with 6:20 in the first quarter. The play begins in a 3×1 receiver, 10 personnel pistol versus two safeties deep and a four-man front.

This is an inside zone play with Sims taking the ball towards the left guard and center who are double-teaming the left defensive tackle. Sims takes a strong approach towards the outside shoulder of the left guard. As he reaches the left hash he cuts back to the inside shoulder of the center.

This press and cut forces the weak side linebacker to move a step wider of the left guard and sets up the block. Sims then hits the crease inside the center at the line of scrimmage, bursts up the middle, and earns five yards.

This weak side linebacker spins away from the guard and pursues Sims as the Houston runner dips outside the oncoming safety six yards past the line of scrimmage. The defender reaches Sims a yard later, wraps the runner high, and spins the back to the ground as the backside pursuit punches the ball free.

Sims initially has the ball high to his chest, but it’s never tight enough to his body. The spin and contact exacerbates the looseness of his elbow from his body. Upon contact from the defender, the ball slips free and turns a nine-yard gain into a turnover.

While Sims’ ball security is decent for much of the run, his pad level is high enough for the linebacker to come backside and get his arm into the runner’s chest. Lower pad level prevents this type of exposure to the ball.

We’ll see instances where Sims’ pad level is lower when he finishes runs, but his height is a critical factor with his lapses with ball security. There are plays where Sims demonstrates a more conscious effort to lower his pads, but his overall running style is unlikely to change. It means the best ways for him to improve his ball security will be to get stronger and maintain concentration on squeezing the ball throughout the play.

Two touches later – a 2nd and 5 with 4:16 in the first quarter – Sims almost loses the ball again at the UAB 7. It was a common occurrence for the defense to earn penetration into the backfield early in this game and disrupt the flow of the running game. On this play, the middle linebacker and defensive end converge on Sims a yard deep in the backfield.

I like that Sims hits the crease hard and drags the end a yard after bouncing off the contact of the linebacker. He does a good job of keeping his feet moving and even demonstrates some body lean. However, the UAB defender rips at the ball and Sims has to make a juggling attempt to secure it with his left arm while falling to the ground.

The pad level is again an issue. The blue arrow is Sim’s actual pad level, but the ideal pad level is closer to the orange arrow. It’s clear to see how much Sims exposes the ball with his pads high. As he approaches the defense his pad level never changes.

Setting Up Defenders

I like that Sims adjusts to what defenders are doing in the game. UAB was successful getting early penetration into the backfield and converging on Sims for minimal gains. The Houston running back does a good job of turning this advantage against his opponents on a nine-yard gain on a 1st and 10 run with 5:31 in the half.

He did an excellent job pressing to the left side to bait he penetration up the middle and then spin inside the defender to reach the line of scrimmage.

The spin and burst from Sims opens a strong lane and I especially like the pad level that Sims display as he’s midway through the crease.

Note the pad level below. This is what Sims has to demonstrate earlier in runs.

Sims’ pads don’t have to be this low at the beginning his runs, but this play is an illustration that his pad level issues area about two things: a high running style due his height and the lack of bend in his hips and knee and inconsistency of effort to correct it. Sims’s pad level can get away from him early in runs if he doesn’t make a conscious effort early in the play.

Promising Pass Protector

Here is an excellent cut block on a corner blitz from the left side of the formation on 2nd and 10 with 5:46 in the half.

Sims crosses the formation from a 2×2 receiver, 10 personnel shotgun set and takes out the slot corner with an excellent block across the body of the cornerback.

The result is an 11-yard gain to the right flat for a first down . Note the way Sims works across the body of the defender and cuts high enough at the waist to force the defender to crumple to the ground at the point of the collision.

Run Bender With Cutting Ability

On the following play, Sims gains six yards on 3rd-and-three from the UAB 24 with 12:55 in the half from a 30 personnel 1×1 receiver pistol with a diamond look. They motion the left fullback to the right and then run a play where Sims follows the two lead blockers right and cuts back to the left on this outside zone play.

Sims does a nice job spotting the cutback lane, planting and changing direction with burst to beat the backside defenders through the crease to reach the line of scrimmage.

The burst from this cut is also impressive. Check out the space he generates 3-4 steps after the cut. Three defenders that were ahead of Sims are now in the rear view mirror.

Sims runs through a wrap to his leg a couple of yards down field and dips further to the backside to avoid the safety just enough to run through a wrap to his leg at the first down marker. He then drags two defenders hitting him from behind for another three yards. When he gets downhill he’s tough to tackle.

If Sims makes the unlikely decision to enter the 2013 NFL Supplemental Draft, I think he is worth a second or third-round pick. Depending on the team fit, he’d fall in a tier that separates Johnathan Franklin and Montee Ball. Perhaps even with Mike Gillislee if the fit isn’t optimal.

Since Sims is likely to transfer to a college program, I think the experience could increase his stock, which should increase his odds to contribute early in the NFL. If Sims remains a college athlete, keep an eye on his speed – both the long sprints and the short area burst. It’s what I’ll be watching closely to determine where he fits on the McFadden-Murray spectrum.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Should I Stay or Should I Go? RB Charles Sims – Initial Thoughts

June 11, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Running Back

Charles Sims lacks the same top-end speed as Darren McFadden but the many positives of his style are similar to the Raiders back. Photo by June 10459.

University of Houston running back Charles Sims has been in limbo this spring, but one thing seems certain: He’s leaving the Cougars. One option is this summer’s NFL Supplemental Draft. Another is is to transfer programs so he can increase his draft stock. Switching schools is a decision I believe Sims will make and I think it’s a good one.

Most see the logic here, but there is still a surprising undercurrent of disappointment among fans when a player chooses to leave his current school for another college – especially on his own volition. College football is business disguised as amateur sport, but it’s instances like this where it appears that the responsibility of maintaining the nobility of college football’s “rah-rah” veneer is on the amateur rather than the professionals running the game.

Emotional ties to a college still run deep and I don’t blame alumni for feeling this way. For some it’s an affront to their sense of loyalty to see a scholarship player “ditch” a program like Sims. However, I think this underscores a disconnect between the way alumni and fans view student-athletes and the rest of the student population.

We don’t question a student’s decision to enroll at an MBA program at a different school after he earns an undergraduate degree in business. This is the natural path for a student to maximize his earning potential in the job market. No one questions his loyalty.

Yet some don’t see it the same way with student athletes. Sims – who has earned his degree – has another year of eligibility in the sport he hopes to play as his full-time job. Just like the business student enrolling in an MBA program, Sims has strong chance to help himself in the professional football job market if he gets another year of training.

The running back is doing the right thing by studying the job market, getting feedback on his talents, and weighing the possibility of going to a higher profile football program that can help him get another year of preparation for the pros. No disrespect to the Cougars football program, but Sims understands that the perception of playing in the Big East, Big Ten, or Pac-12 carries more weight with many NFL organizations.

Houston’s athletic program will allow Sims to transfer, but ESPN’s Joe Schad says the running back may leave only if he avoids the following programs:

Any school in the American Athletic Conference
Any school on Houston’s 2013 schedule
Any school in the state of Texas

Schad’s source connected to the Cougars program says Sims is looking at Cal and West Virginia. Both situations make sense – Coaches Sonny Dykes and Dana Holgorsen are using the Houston Air Raid offense and working in conferences where Sims will get to play better competition on a bigger stage. There’s also incentive to head west: Cal’s projected starter at running back Brendan Bigelow is recovering from spring knee surgery.

Purely from the standpoint of raising one’s draft stock, Russell Wilson and Charles Sims have a lot in common right now. Where it differs is what I think ‘the game’ (agents, trainers, and other people who make money off athletes) of pro football feeds a quarterback and a running back.

Quarterbacks tend to have longer careers so there’s often encouragement for them to stay in school another year. They get to gain another year of maturity as a young adult and work at their craft on a stage where they continue to get in-game experience. Some believe this line of reasoning is just a front that the money-draft status wasn’t strong enough to go.

They may have a point, but as a parent of a young adult in college I can tell you that the potential for growth during the ages 18-22 is tremendous. Every year can feel like a person packed in three. My kid left for college a young adult who knew everything, but really didn’t know anything. I see this all the time with students I interview at Georgia.

On paper, their credentials and accomplishments are fantastic. Many go on to earn multiple undergraduate degrees, major athletic achievements, Wall Street job offers, successful entrepreneurial ventures. I’ve even seen two Rhodes Scholars pass through here.

They say all the right things, but they’re playing a role.

They’re not phony; many of them are ‘trying life on’ the same way we go to a department store to shop for clothing. My daughter chose fashion design as her course of study while working two jobs. She’s naturally a math-oriented person, but she has been making clothing for several years and has a strong creative streak.

Anyone who has earned an arts degree that requires applied application of the study knows, working two jobs and undertaking a course of study with twice the number of classes and time-consuming projects as the average undergraduate major – who will ultimately go into a less competitive field with more earning potential – is a tough road.

I’ve been there. At some point you look up from the workload around the middle of your sophomore year and see future doctors, lawyers, and bankers taking 3-4 classes a semester and still having the time of their lives. My daughter did the same thing.

However, I’ve seen my daughter learn a great deal about managing her time, her money, and resolving interpersonal conflicts. These are real life skills that you can tell a kid about, show them how to do it as the model in your everyday life, and guide their initial decisions with constructive reinforcement and practice, but until they are doing it without a net, the lessons don’t stick.

In the past year, Chandler decided to change her major and transfer schools. Since that time she’s worked a lot, saved a lot, and planned her next steps better than I imagined. The difference in how she approaches her life this summer and last is like seeing a different person with the same personality. When my wife and I think about how much Chandler has learned during this time it feels a lot more time has passed than what’s on the calendar.

These are reasons why I think it makes sense that most college quarterbacks should stay in school. That additional year of learning to manage real life benefits them and their future NFL team. Ask Pete Carrol about Marc Sanchez.

Running back is another story. It seems this position is encouraged to leave early. I think there’s a lot of selling based on fear.

What if you get hurt . . .

You could lose your job to a underclassman . . .

The average NFL career for a running back is a lot shorter than you think . . .

All of these things about competition, injury, and career length are true. For every junior like Stevan Ridley, there’s three like Tellis Redman, Danny Ware and Tony Hollings. While he had to announce he was leaving Houston to begin the process of shopping other athletic programs, it appears he has done a good job of taking a deliberate approach. And I think it would be a wise decision for him to return to school.

Sims has the talent to develop into an NFL starter. However, I do think another year at a program where the expectations will be higher, the surrounding talent a little better, and the stage a little bigger will help reinforce a healthy amount of confidence and maturity that he’ll need to develop into a successful pro.

Up Next: The film on Sims and why I think his style makes him a disciple of the Demarco Murray and Darren McFadden school.

Read Listens Views 6/7/2013

June 6, 2013 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

I've built a Hot Tub Time Machine for Palmer, but Bruce Arians might have done me better. Photo by Keith Allison. — I’ve built a Hot Tub Time Machine for Palmer, **but Bruce Arians might have done me better**. Check out my thoughts on the Cardinals offense in 2013 at Footballguys Photo by Keith Allison.

Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/VQm5gNo-5Vo]

A Message From Chet Gresham: Fake Football Writing Contest

Hello all you fake football writers and aspiring writers! Welcome to our 2013 writing contest. We’ll have prizes, guest judges, and a whole lot of fake football ideas being thrown around in a nice and orderly fashion. First off, let me thank our sponsors DraftDay and FantasyPros. Both great sites that I use more than the average obsessed fake footballer. Second off, you may ask, what’s in this for me!? Details here.

Thanks

I’f you’re new to the blog, I make it a habit to post a mix of content on Friday and thank my readers for hanging around.

I don’t know when he broached this idea but Ryan Riddle conducted an informal survey of his Twitter followers, asking them to name “the best football sites out there.” Riddle didn’t specify what type of content – fantasy, stats, scouting, news, or strategy – he just wanted what first came to mind. Each person gave their top three sites in order.

Riddle released a list of 71 sites this week and the list is a strong group. I didn’t know about the survey so I didn’t vote. However I was glad there were folks who voted for sites like Coach Huey and Blitzology – two lesser known sites to the general public, but excellent resources for a lot of writers contributing content to sites higher on the list.

I expected to see Football Outsiders and Footballguys place high on the list and readers didn’t disappoint – rating them 3rd and 7th among all sites, respectively. I was delighted to see that this site you’re reading placed 24th overall – tied with ESPN, X and O Lab, Draft Calc, and Cat Scratch Reader – and even earned a first-place vote.

I didn’t expect to see the RSP blog on the list, so it was a pleasant surprise to be in the top-third of a list as esteemed as this one. Thank you all for following my blog, sharing what you like, and buying the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

If you haven’t bought the RSP before, I can say with pride that you’ll get as much out of it as I put into it – and I put everything I can into it. My readers will tell you they love it. If you’re on the fence, I am confident that you’ll realize this is one of those cases where there’s little hype to what I’m saying here. Plus, I donate 10 percent of each sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit whose mission is to prevent and combat sexual abuse through community training and awareness.

Download the RSP now and know that with your purchase, you also get access to the 2013 Post-Draft publication that comes with it. At the very least, follow this blog click on the link on the left to follow and you’ll receive email updates when I post new articles that give you a taste of the analysis and detail put into the RSP publication. Then consider supporting the site (and do yourself a favor at the same time) by downloading the publication.

Football Reads

If the name Cian Fahey sounds familiar to you but can’t place it, setting in for some nice reads from the football writer who has been a part of two RSP Writers Projects and has most helpful providing updated spreadsheets tot the writers so we didn’t have too many duplicate draft picks. What I admire about Fahey as a football writer is that he isn’t afraid to take a stance that might earn him criticism, but it’s not something he does for the sake of attracting eyeballs to his work. You can follow Cian on Twitter at @Cianaf.

Moreover, I recommend checking out his blog Pre-Snap Reads. Here are a few pieces I enjoyed reading this week:

Steven Jackson, The Atlanta Falcons, and The Benefit of Being an Afterthought
Gus Bradley, Dion Jordan, and Building the Jaguars’ Defensive Line
Casey Hayward: The Numbers, The Tape, The Verdict – This piece is from his Defensive Back Database. Some super in-depth analysis (and that’s coming from me).

Bonus Football Read

George, Visger, The Damage Zone – Patrick Hruby’s profile on Visger is a heartbreaking read, but he mainlines the truth about pro football players and the complex relationship they have with the sport.

Non-Football Reads

Animal Behaviorist: We’ll Soon Have Devices That Let Us Talk to Our Pets – My wife once told me when were dating that my (now deceased) cat Mookie was a sweet guy and very smart, but warned me that if he ever started talking she was leaving and not coming back. I think this also goes for my cat Zookie, who she once told to “get a job” after shooing him off the new couch and two days later when I saw him sitting next to her, she explained that he “got a job” (he brought her a bird) so she had no choice but to indulge him. Still, if a device becomes readily available I doubt it will ever be allowed in our house. Plus, I’m pretty sure Zookie curses and speaks in slang neither of us would understand.
When The Beautiful Game Turns Ugly – A must-read by Wright Thompson. It’s not a comforting story, but it’s a great one because as much as the world has changed the elements that generate hate remain in place and easy to exploit.
Michael Jordan Has Not Left the Building – When you read a piece about an icon like Jordan and almost feel sorry for him because of his difficulty turning off the competitive switch as well as gaining insight to what makes him far more human now than what we were allowed to see in the `80s and `90s, you know Thompson did a fine job.
Six Key Foods to Help Regulate Sleep – Former GM Ted Sundquist has a football site. I’m sure there’s other fine material to mine, but this piece about food and regulating sleep patterns by guest writer Christine Jones caught my eye first.

Views

I didn’t hear about this controversy regarding the Cheerios commercial this week (I was too busy reading about hatred and stupidity in Italy) to notice that we had our own example of parts of our country not quite ready to look at the world as a collection of human beings as individuals.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/kYofm5d5Xdw]

Great commercial and good for you, General Mills for standing behind it.

Listen-View

[youtube=http://youtu.be/KNa3gZfQfH0]

If you’re not used to the constant pause-rewind of football tape this could leave you jittery, but the chance to listen to Alex Gibbs talk about zone blocking is good stuff. H/T Chris Brown.

Coming Soon

More 2014 prospect articles
More 2013 camp watch pieces
A study on quarterbacks with dynasty leagues in mind at Footballguys

RSO Team: Football Outsiders’ Rivers McCown

June 6, 2013 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

It's a bad idea to evaluate a smile the way you critique his release. Photo by PDA.Photo — Any team with Cam Newton as the quarterback is primed for big weeks. Rivers McCown of Football Outsiders gives you the rest of the scoop on his RSO squad from last month’s auction. Photo by PDA.Photo

Rivers McCown makes my Futures column look better. He makes all the Football Outsiders look better – at least in print. McCown participated in our recent Reality Sports Online writer draft. This is an auction league that includes multi-year contracts. Go here to learn more about the league. You can join a league for $9.99 as an individual or form a league with your friends. Go to www.realitysportsonline.com and use the promotion code RSP20%OFF, you’ll earn a 20 percent discount.

Pre-Draft Strategy

I actually didn’t have time to come in with much of a strategy. I rather liked how it turned out, and I had a few big ideas going through my head when creating the team (get settled at RB early and target older receivers with the belief that they’ll be cheaper), but I can’t attest that I had some grand, unified theory come true. In retrospect, I would have aimed for one very good, young receiver with my four-year deal rather than David Wilson, but I’m not dissatisfied.

For a time, D.J. Harper was considered the best back at Boise State - and Doug Martin was on the team . Photo by Football Schedule. — McCown thought his deal on Martin was such a steal that the league was going to roll back the auction, but he made off in the night with a top RB at a great contract. Photo by Football Schedule.

How the Auction Unfolded

Quarterback	Yrs	$	Running Back	Yrs	$
Cam Newton (CAR)	3	49.0	Doug Martin (TB)	3	67.5
Josh Freeman (TB) R	1	3.5	David Wilson (NYG)	4	56.5
Chase Daniel (KC) R**	1	0.5	Stepfan Taylor (ARI) R	3	R
			Theo Riddick (DET) R	3	R
			Willis McGahee (DEN) R	1	2.5
			Montario Hardesty (CLE) R	1	1.5
			Daniel Thomas (MIA) R	1	1.0
			Michael Smith (TB) R	1	0.5
			Jeremy Stewart (OAK) R**	1	0.5

Wide Receiver	Yrs	$	Tight End	Yrs	$
Andre Johnson (HOU)	2	32.5	Jermichael Finley (GB)	2	6.0
Reggie Wayne (IND)	1	15.0	Tyler Eifert (CIN) R	3	R
Lance Moore (NO)	1	4.5	Fred Davis (WAS) R	1	1.5
Mohamed Sanu (CIN) R	1	2.5
Rueben Randle (NYG) R	1	2.5
Malcom Floyd (SD)	1	2.5
Jarius Wright (MIN) R	1	1.5
T.J. Graham (BUF) R**	1	0.5
Nate Burleson (DET) R	1	0.5
Justin Hunter (TEN) R	3	R
Ryan Swope (ARI) R	3	R

Kicker	Yrs	$	Defense	Yrs	$
Rob Bironas (TEN) R	1	0.5	Chicago	1	0.5
Ryan Succop (KC)	1	0.5	Pittsburgh	1	0.5

**These players were acquired via free agency after the draft.

I think I got Doug Martin for a song because nobody was awake yet – I was surprised that didn’t get rewound when it happened. That enabled me to get a little more aggressive with the other guys I had targeted. I think the two biggest mistakes I made was not getting a third “established” back (because who knows what will happen with McGahee, Ball, Hillman, etc.) and losing a bidding war with Mike Clay for Antonio Brown when he was the last truly elite receiver (in my mind) on the board. I recovered and garnered a lot of possible WR3 guys, but none of them have Brown’s upside and I could have spent less on the margins to bring him in without losing much.

The quarterback shuffle was the most interesting part of the league for me. I think there were some good bargains with the older quarterbacks, but I was dead-set on a young guy. I knew that a Matt Waldman league was not a place where Russell Wilson would go cheap. Colin Kaepernick got thrown out early and was surprisingly expensive. Luck got thrown out early and was ridiculously expensive. So I hitched my wagon to Cam Newton and went a little over my initial range. If Carolina continues to involve him in the run game, he’s the one quarterback with the body I’d bet on to survive it, so I was less hesitant to spend on him than I would have been with some of the other young quarterbacks.

Best/Worst Deals

While I disagree with McCown about the value of Finley relative to Davis, the recent non-playoff productivity isn't that far away. Photo by Elvis Kennedy. — While I disagree with McCown about the value of Finley relative to Davis, the recent non-playoff productivity isn’t that far away. Photo by Elvis Kennedy.

Martin is my best deal, clearly. I also though Finley was a decent bargain at his price given how guys like Vernon Davis and Tony Gonzalez went for at least $8 million. My least favorite bid was for Fred Davis, who I was just trying to bump up – $1.5 million isn’t a killer, and there’s upside, but it’s injury-dependent. I’m happy he’s my third tight end.

Good Deals By Other Writers

McCown thought Sigmund Bloom's acquisition of LeSean McCoy was one of the best deals of the Reality Sports Auction. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller. — McCown thought Sigmund Bloom’s acquisition of LeSean McCoy was one of the best deals of the Reality Sports Auction. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.

I am a big fan of Sigmund Bloom’s LeSean McCoy deal – I think it fit the basic scale of my Martin deal, but was just a little more expensive. I thought Jim Day struck gold with Eric Decker for three years, $25 million. Antonio Gates for $1 million is a deal that made my jaw drop.

Honestly, outside of the Gronkowski deal, I thought Bloom had a few other killer deals, too. Jordy Nelson was a sneaky steal at $32.5 million for 3 years, but put me in the camp that wouldn’t have paid more than the league minimum for Sam Bradford.

And as good as A.J. Green is, I think he’s going to have a hard time living up to the $92.5 million, 3-year deal that Lance Zierlein signed him to while running his auction at a Little League game.

Favorite Team (Other Than Yours)

I think Bloom and Bob Harris put together the most complete teams. They have the strongest receiving corps. Harris needs a second running back to step up and Bloom needs Roethlisberger to stay healthy all season. If either one of those things break right they have tough teams with a lot of depth.

Assessment of the Reality Sports Online Platform

The functionality was fine. I wish I understood a little more about how the top bid algorithm was decided, but that’s just my inner nerd.

Your Team’s Short-Term/Long-Term Outlook

Short-term, I think this team has a great chance as long as the running backs stay healthy. Long-term, it really depends on how the receiving situation shakes out. Can Mohamed Sanu make me feel good about that two-year deal? Is the lack of depth on the market going to make it hard for me to replace Reggie Wayne? Am I going to have a chance at Marqise Lee? Haha. That’s the area where the turnover is going to be hard to predict right now, but I’d rather have holes to fill there than at the other spots.

Early `14 Takes: Rutgers WR Brandon Coleman

June 3, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Wide Receiver

Patriots rookie Mark Harrison might have been the best wide receiver on the 2013 Rutgers squad, but I’m not sure he was the most promising. That title may belong to Brandon Coleman, a 6’6″, 220-pound rising senior. Even if Coleman’s listed height gets exposed as SID-speak (Sports Information Department – also known as athletic department PR) for a true height of 6’4″, the Scarlet Knight receiver has the type of physical skills and raw technical grasp of the position to earn attention from the NFL. Some are already projecting that attention will translate to an early round pick.

I see the reasons why, but I have the luxury that many working for media corporations do not: I don’t have to deliver rankings for the 2014 class before I’ve seen enough of the class to make an informed decision. Next time you think about asking a draft analyst why a certain player was ranked so well heading into a season but by March he has a late-round grade, keep what I said in mind. It won’t always be the case, but it does pay to think critically about the nature of the business and not just about the nature of the player.

I think Coleman is the type of player whose stock could fluctuate greatly in either direction. I have studied two games of Coleman’s thus far and I can tell you that I don’t have enough information to feel comfortable saying where he stacks up. However, I enjoy writing about these murky situations. There’s often something worth sharing that the clear-cut, bottom-line answer doesn’t reveal.

What I see from Coleman that could elevate him to the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft is height, weight, speed, and the ability to adjust to the football and make these adjustments with his hands well away from the football. This 1st-and-10 target with 9:47 in the first quarter from the Rutgers seven is a good example. Coleman is the outside receiver on the twin side of an 11 personnel, 2×1 receiver set.

The Syracuse corner assigned to Coleman is a yard off the line of scrimmage and shaded outside the receiver. Coleman works outside the corner and out runs the defender, earning a step of separation at the 25 and extending his arms to make the catch on a fade route.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc8QWAVE0Nc?start=7rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Watch the replay that follows. Coleman uses his inside arm early in the route to ward off the defender’s attempt to jam him before making a nice adjustment to the ball, fading to the sideline late as the ball arrives. I especially like how Coleman secured the football. He does a nice job of using his hands and fingertips to stab the ball with his outside arm as it arrives over his inside shoulder and then secure the pass to his body with his inside arm.

This is good coordination and fluid athleticism while in the act of veering away from the defender at the last moment. This late move to achieve horizontal separation is a less-discussed aspect of getting open because the emphasis is always about getting behind the defender and that is only part of the equation. Overall, it’s a nice adjustment for a 26-yard gain.

It’s the type of play that falls into Coleman’s wheelhouse as a tall, fast, long-armed receiver. What I want to see Coleman do in 2014 is run routes with hard breaks and make catches after contact when the defender is able to lower his pads and drive through the contact as Coleman is attacking the football. If he can exhibit good technique and consistent production in these two facets of his game, Coleman will earn that high ranking.

Another thing that clouds the draft-day picture for Coleman is quarterback play at Rutgers. Coleman earned nine targets against Syracuse and all but three of those targets were to some degree errant throws that required an adjustment. None of the adjustments I categorized as difficult targets, but they were closer to that end of the spectrum than they should have been:

Under thrown deep targets
Passes thrown hard and behind the receiver’s break on short routes
Late throws that prevent the receiver from running under the ball and away from the defender

An example of what Coleman is missing from the quarterback position is this deep post with 6:46 in the first quarter on 2nd-and-five from a 12 personnel twin right formation. Coleman is the inside the receiver in this twin set and has a corner at the line of scrimmage shading the receiver to the outside.

The free safety is at the hash about eight yards deep and the strong safety and linebackers are five-six yards off the line of scrimmage in the middle of he field. The strong safety’s depth is the key for Coleman and his quarterback to know that a deep post that breaks right to left will come open behind the strong safety. Watch from 0:25-0:31 below:

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc8QWAVE0Nc?start=25rel=0&w=560&h=315]

At first glance, it appears that Coleman runs a deep post but cannot catch up to the pass as the ball lands near the Syracuse 10. Because we only see Coleman’s initial release and then him chasing the ball, one might conclude with this limited information that the receiver could not work past the corner and failed to get separation early enough to run under the ball. Watch the replay focused on the receiver’s route:

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc8QWAVE0Nc?start=34rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Coleman does face contact from the corner and he’s also in the path of the free safety over top, but the Rutgers receiver does a nice job of using his outside arm to keep the defender away from his body and at the same time reduces his inside shoulder to avoid contact from the free safety. It’s a nice release against two defenders aiming to slow him down.

I don’t think they do. If you freeze the frame at 0:38 in the video, you’ll see Coleman break inside the hash and have a solid yard of separation inside the corner. If the quarterback leads Coleman across the field, this target has a great chance of resulting in a touchdown. Instead, the quarterback throws the ball over Coleman’s right shoulder and forces an immediate adjustment from the receiver to straighten his break and veer back to the right hash.

Coleman’s adjustment is immediate, but it’s still too late for him to reach the pass. If he quarterback places the ball in the direction of the break, I have little doubt Coleman fails to reach it. One angle indicates the possibility of poor separation against two defenders, another reveals a nice route with a poor throw.

An element of Coleman’s game that requires immediate improvement is ball security. If there’s a takeaway from this Syracuse contest, it’s that Coleman’s long arms are both an asset and liability at this point in his career. This screen pass does a fine job of covering the spectrum of good and bad.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc8QWAVE0Nc?start=65rel=0&w=560&h=315]

The play is a 12 personnel weak side twin set and Coleman is the outside receiver at the Rutgers 35. The beginning of the play is a good example of how Coleman uses is long arms to win the ball and beat an opponent. He turns to the quarterback, squares his body to the target, and leaps for the ball placed over his head. This target requires good arm extension from Coleman and he makes the catch with both hands.

He secures the ball to his body and turns outside the oncoming corner who is hoping to blow up the play behind the line of scrimmage. Coleman squares the defender and makes a good, quick turn, tucking the ball to his left side and uses his use his right arm to shove the defender away. This move leaves the defender flailing for air. Coleman’s height and strength should make this a common even in his game tape, but thus far I have seen less of it than I thought.

I also like who Coleman looks to the second defensive back inside the lead blocker in the flat. Coleman does a good job working outside and then stopping and turning inside to set up the lead block as they reach the line of scrimmage. But the next decision as a ball carrier is not as clear-cut good or bad. After gaining three yards to the inside, Coleman sees the safety flash over top five yards away and opts to change direction back to the outside behind his lead blocker.

I think for this play it was a bad decision and he should have continued up the flat towards the inside. He had room to squeeze ahead of the trailing defensive end untouched and then take on the safety. This decision probably gets him close to the first down marker.

Instead, Coleman works outside, the corner beats the block, and hits the receiver over top. At the same time, the corner Coleman left on the ground earlier in the play, regains his feet, chases the receiver and delivers a hit from behind.

Like many long-limb receivers, ball carriage can be loose at the elbow for Coleman and on this play his elbow is not tight enough to his body. The cornerback hitting Coleman over top punches it loose. Although Coleman is able to turn back and pounce on the ball, it’s an indication of deficient ball security natural to his body type.

Back to the ball carrying decision in the open field. While I thought it was a bad decision, it’s the type of hindsight analysis that is difficult use when judging the player’s vision. I understand why Coleman reacted to the safety flashing across the field and opted to use his lead block a second time.

At the same time, I see many college receivers try too hard to change direction and allow the pursuit to catch them. I’d rather see more commitment to the intended path and finish with the pads low. I think the best NFL receivers tend to commit down field and keep the momentum forward. Coleman has enough strength to work through glancing blows and run through arm tackles. I’d rather see him use his size to his advantage.

Overall, I see a receiver with similar physical skill sets and limited football environment as Demaryius Thomas and Calvin Johnson when they were at Georgia Tech. I still have more to watch before I can say where he compares along that spectrum of talent, but the stylistic comparisons are evident.

Camp Watch List: Lions WR Patrick Edwards

June 1, 2013 0 Comments read Wide Receiver

Calvin Johnson needs a complement with big-play ability in Detroit. Patrick Edwards has the ability and the opportunity, but does he have the physicality?

Lions veteran Nate Burleson told the media yesterday that second-year receiver Patrick Edwards is poised to emerge as a play maker in Detroit. Edwards entered the league as a 5’9″, 175-pound prospect from the University of Houston with excellent speed, but returning from a freakish injury that he sustained earlier in his college career when he collided with a cart in the back of the end zone at Marshall.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/6MXXki4TtGQ]

I did not rank Edwards in the 2012 RSP because I didn’t want to project him without seeing more as an intermediate and short route runner. More important, players of his dimensions are often overlooked by the NFL or view him in a limited role. I studied Edwards’ 10-catch, 162-yard 3-touchdown performance against Central Florida in 2010 and I was impressed with him.

To underscore this point, I had Edwards in a fantasy league where rosters allowances exceed 55 players over the summer and I acquired Edwards again this morning. I still only recommend looking at Edwards as a summer consideration in larger leagues, but I do understand why Burleson and the Lions like what they see.

The reason I acquired Edwards is a mix of what I saw from him as a Houston Cougar and the fact that Lions seem open to using a diminutive player. Here’s what football fans should know about this intriguing receiver courtesy of my RSP Scouting Checklist and play-by-play study of the young receiver.

Patrick Edwards’ Report

Game Info

Date: 11/5/2010
Opponent: UCF
Location: Houston
Surface: Grass
Climate/Temp: Night-Temperate
Score: 33-40
Year: Junior

Game Production

Targets: 14
Missed Targets: 2
Drops: 1
Catches: 10
Receptions After Contact: 2
Receptions Yards: 162
Yards After Catch: 31
TDs: 3

Overall Score: 74.5

Score Explanation: A player scoring in the range of 70-79 points is a rookie with NFL-caliber talent, but likely falls under one of these categories:

He is new to the position and has a wealth of physical talent.
He lacked great coaching and his technical skills detract from his physical talent.
He has strong technical skills, but he’s lacking the NFL-caliber physical talent to develop into a long-term productive starter.
Injuries depressed his overall score.

Players in the upper half of this range often become starters – sometimes stars – but the rate of development is often slower than their peers. A player in the lower half is more likely to develop into a career backup with the ability to produce in spot situations. Fantasy owners will not want to draft these players in traditional leagues, but they do have nice value as mid-to-late round picks in dynasty leagues with deeper rosters.

Even if not drafted to a fantasy roster in his first year, a savvy owner will be aware of this player and acquire him off waivers at the opportune time. Some of these players I didn’t see produce one or two key skills that depressed their scores and I didn’t feel comfortable ranking them. Quality WR and TE prospects tend to score in this range on my checklists because the position has a tougher learning curve than running back and a tendency to lack the caliber of detailed coaching and development from college programs.

Edwards’ Strengths: Edwards is a smaller receiver with a good burst and consistent hands. He has the burst to get behind cornerbacks and gain yardage in chunks once he’s in the open field. He makes the effort as a blocker and demonstrates good technique with his punch, feet, and hands to sustain blocks as long as his size and strength will allow.

I’m impressed with how he adjusts his vertical routes to use the sideline in coverage. He also understands how work turn contact against the defender during the route to gain additional separation. He’s a downhill runner after the catch. I think his potential is a little higher than his grade because I didn’t see him have to set up routes, work back to the quarterback, or attempt a difficult catch.

Edwards’ Weaknesses: Edwards is a short and light player for the position by NFL standards. Although he makes the effort as a blocker he doesn’t have the strength to consistently sustain blocks. He isn’t a huge factor after the catch in tight coverage because he lacks the strength to generate a push after the initial contact.

Edwards catches the ball with his hands, but he didn’t consistently get his hands away from his body to make plays at the first window of opportunity to snare the football. His tendency to catch the ball at the later windows of opportunity rather than the earlier windows is a concern. He dropped a sideline curl late in the game that could have put Houston in scoring position, because he didn’t use his hands to attack the football.

I thought Edwards was too tentative of a decision maker in the open field and on designed runs. If his first option isn’t available he doesn’t use enough of his quickness and lateral agility to create openings and he doesn’t take away angles of defenders when they are close to him.

Although there were some route techniques I didn’t get to see due to the flow of the game, even if Edwards is adept at these things I don’t see him becoming anything more than a complementary receiver in multiple receiver sets at the NFL level. He simply lacks the physicality and lateral agility to earn a starting role in the NFL.

You can download the rest of the PDF checklist and play-by-play notes here: Patrick Edwards

NFL Outlook: Edwards has the speed and ball-tracking ability to produce in a spread offense like Detroit. I can see how the Lions will primarily use him in the slot opposite the tight end and exploit the middle of a defense on deep seam routes, corner routes, and crosses. Because safeties have to respect Calvin Johnson, there is ample opportunity for Edwards to generate big plays. I also believe Edwards adjusts to the ball well enough to work the perimeter in certain defensive looks.

If Edwards demonstrates improvement with attacking the football, I think he can become a reliable weapon in the Lions offense as the third option in the passing game. He is capable of providing a big-play element in the slot where he won’t face press coverage that often and will eliminate some concerns about his size. However, the size factor remains a concern because the physical nature of the game can wear down a 175-pound player.

Until there’s more to see, I have to project Edwards as a boom-bust producer if he sees the field. However, there are factors to watch that could elevate his potential:

Additional muscle/weight to handle the NFL game inside the hash marks
Sharp route recognition and rapport with Matthew Stafford
Decisive and effective skill shedding press coverage if used outside

Skill-wise, Edwards is worth the intrigue. Stay tuned to see if physically he can make the cut.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.