Date Archives July 2013

How I’d Use Tim Tebow In New England

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
I haven't written much about Tebow, but here's an instance where I'd love to see him used in New England. Photo by Wade Rackley.
I haven’t written much about Tebow, but here’s an instance below where I’d love to see him used in New England. Photo by Wade Rackley.

Outside of Kenbrell Thompkins and Shane Vereen, I haven’t been a close observer of Patriots training camp. However, I heard there might be some use of Tebow as a tight end and it got me thinking of how I’d use Tim Tebow if I were New England’s offensive coordinator.

The Obvious

I’d be shocked if the Patriots don’t use Tebow on read-option plays in the red zone at least on a few plays a year. I don’t think it will happen a lot, because taking Tom Brady off the field is foolish. However, I think it will be difficult for the Patriots coaching staff to resist the temptation against some weaker run teams.

The reason is Rob Gronkowski’s strength as a run blocker combined with Zach Sudfeld’s experience as a wing back/H-back in Chris Ault’s Pistol sets as a lead blocker – much like Chris Brown described in his recent Grantland piece.  This two-tight end personnel with Sudfeld a better lead blocker than Aaron Hernandez ever was could provide a short-yardage power element and increase the versatility of the set.  I’ll illustrate the wrinkle I’d use later.

Tim Tebow Tight End?

I’ve heard this is a possibility and it’s the red zone sets where I think the Patriots would implement it. Think about Mike Vrabel’s work as a red zone tight end and I think we can expect similar looks to Tebow – especially with teams focused on Gronkowski. If the rookie Sudfeld – a 6’7″ specimen with skill to adjust to the football – plays to his potential, opposing defenses could lose track of Tebow as a receiver.

Using Tebow at tight end also creates additional formation flexibility where the Patriots can adjust before the snap:

  • Shift Gronkowski or Sudfeld away from the formation.
  • Shift Tebow to the backfield as a runner or quarterback.
  • Hand the ball the Ridley to an unbalanced strong side with Tebow as a fullback/H-Back.
  • Use unbalanced sets with Tebow on the wing to dictate a numbers advantage to one side and then throw backside crosses, slants, and jerk routes to receivers.

There’s a lot that Tebow’s presence can do for red zone packages. My favorite is the last one below.

Two-Quarterback Backfield

Tebow

This setup could create a lot of options for an offense in the red zone. First, it’s an unbalanced set with two versatile tight ends. Brady could shift the tight ends to balance the line. Or, if the shift would place one or both of the tight ends in a match up advantage with a linebacker, nickel corner, or safety of preference, they could spread the field.

But what I love most about this look is that Tebow could run, pass, or catch from his alignment. Placing Tebow behind Sudfeld on the wing provides enormous flexibility in the run game. If the defensive numbers are stacked to the strong side, they can run a counter with Sudfeld as a lead blocker and the twin receivers slanting inside to seal the inside.

If the defenses has even distribution, Tebow can run behind the strong side with good blocks ahead. The Patriots could do this with a direct snap to Tebow or an exchange from Brady.

And it’s this split of the quarterbacks over the guards that could force defenses to guess which player is getting the ball. Teams will guess run if it goes to Tebow, pass to Brady. But Tebow has proven he can deliver the ball in the red zone and there will be times he will have easy throws to Gronkowski or Sudfeld and even easier passes to his left (his natural side) to the backside receivers.

If teams are too aggressive playing Tebow, Brady also could have some easy throws.   Plus, I’d use two of  Shane Vereen, Julian Edelman (if ready), and Danny Amendola as my receivers. I could incorporate some Wildcat with Tebow and Vereen/Edelman motioning from the outside towards the formation.  Now there’s the possibility of zone-read, Wild Cat, and guessing which quarterback gets the snap.

If you’re fan of the team or have been monitoring training camp, let me know if what I describe below is happening in practices.

RSP Flashback: Rutgers RB Ray Rice

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[youtube=http://youtu.be/7ksRKbr16hw]

One of the most common questions I get from new readers is What did you think about [insert player name here] before [NFL team] drafted him? For the next month, I’m posting scouting reports of some of my bigger hits and misses when it comes to the past eight years of evaluating rookies for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I’ll also include the lessons I learned – or am still learning – from the experience of evaluating these players.

Size Matters, But Technique Matters More

“Rice will be an every-down back in the NFL and potentially a Pro-Bowl Player”

– 2008 Rookie Scouting Portfolio 

Ray Rice is one of my favorite current players in the NFL. That admiration goes back to his years at Rutgers. As a rule, I tend to watch numerous games of each player even if I only formally study a handful (2-4) contests with my evaluation system.  What I remember about Rice is how well he handled a huge workload. 

The 5-8, 199-pound junior just came off a 36-carry, 196-yard, 3-touchdown performance against Syracuse when he faced South Florida’s top-ranked defense that had good speed up front. This unit had not allowed 100 yards to a runner in over a year – including games against the likes of Auburn, UCF (Kevin Smith), and West Virginia (Steve Slaton). The last back to post 100 yards on the Bulls?

Ray Rice.

And after a 36-carry performance, the Scarlet Knights had no problem returning to the well in the fourth quarter of this tight game and riding its star runner for a total of 39 carries for 181 yards to earn a 30-27 victory. Rice didn’t score in this game, but he had 7 first downs and 8 broken tackles.

Rice, along with Adrian Peterson, Ricky Williams, Cedric Benson, Steven Jackson, and Ladainian Tomlinson, all debunk the workload myth. The player Rice reminded me of stylistically was Emmitt Smith. I described Rice as undersized, but a tough runner with vision who gets stronger as the game progresses.

Lesson Learned from Rice:  What makes Rice this type of runner and differentiates him from many backs is his pad level. There are a lot of backs that have a low center of gravity with their size, but for their height they don’t have a running style that maximizes this physical advantage. It doesn’t matter to me whether a running back is 5-6 or 6-5, if he doesn’t learn how to maximize his center of gravity, he’s more likely to leave yards on the field and take more punishment than necessary.

This doesn’t mean a runner has to have his knees and hips bent and his pads low. I loved Edgerrin James’ game for his textbook pad level and insane ability to get lower than his opponents in situations most backs couldn’t duplicate. I saw James turn more two-yard runs into five-yard gains than any back I’ve watched in the past 20 years, but it’s obvious few backs run like James.

The most important facet of good pad level is awareness and timing. Fans and writers always list exceptions like Adrian Peterson, Eddie George, and Eric Dickerson. All three run high, but what’s missed is how they lower the pads at the right time.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sK3c4GzN4pE&w=560&h=315]

What fans often miss with short runners is whether they truly run with a low center of gravity at the point of contact. They can be so preoccupied with trying to make a defender miss that the pads are too high, the knees aren’t churning, and they invite contact that drives them backwards.

Functional power is about leverage and there’s two things runners can do to maximize functional power: minimize surface area (low pad level, knees high, and feet high) and/or concentrate his power into a central spot (forearm or shoulders).

Rice doesn’t take his low center of gravity for granted. He maximizes his small surface area and combines it with burst and the skill to eliminate angles with sound press-and-cut technique as an interior runner.

This .PDF document – Ray Rice – contains two scouting reports on the runner I rated No.2 among backs in the 2008 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. This includes a loaded class of Rashard Mendenhall, Matt Forte, Felix Jones, Jamaal Charles, Darren McFadden, Steve Slaton, and Chris Johnson. 

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Eagles WR Riley Cooper: What He Offers, What to Monitor

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Riley Cooper is a rapport-type of player. He has the skills to succeed, but his QB will need to have the confidence and skills to make tight throws. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.
Riley Cooper is a rapport-type of player. He has the skills to succeed, but his QB will need to have the confidence and skills to make tight throws. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.

During the Urban Meyer Era at Florida there were three skill guys who caught my eye and held serious intrigue as future NFL players: Aaron Hernandez, Tim Tebow, and Riley Cooper. Hernandez’s potential as a game-changing weapon were apparent whenever he saw a target where he could turn up field. Tebow was the lightning rod for debate. Former CBS Sportsline/NFL Draft Scout and NFL.com film analyst Chad Reuter and I had our first fun debate over Tebow. Reuter was convinced Tebow would be a first-round pick and he was right.

While I thought Tebow would have a tough time developing the skills of a traditional pocket passer, I have to credit Reuter for seeing ahead of the curve and having an understanding that the read-option was coming to the league. While Tebow may never get a long-term opportunity again as a starter, there may be a similar dynamic in play that held back Doug Flutie. Different style players, but both thrived as improvisers and leaders and could win with the right offensive system.

But it was Cooper who I thought was sliding under the radar. Tall (6’4″), built (224 lbs.), and swift enough to get separation down field, Cooper didn’t benefit from playing in a system where the quarterback could make multiple reads and execute the vertical game efficiently. Those weren’t Tebow’s strengths, but there were still enough examples on tape where Cooper flashed the potential to develop a complete game.

I wasn’t alone. NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah was between scouting gigs that year when Cecil Lammey and I caught up with him at the Senior Bowl. Cooper was one of Jeremiah’s favorite receivers at the practices and I could see why. Cooper was consistently working open on intermediate routes, earning separation deep, and making difficult targets look easy. He wasn’t flashy, but he was sound.

It may not be how it went down, but it’s no coincidence to me that Jeremiah took a job as a scout with the Eagles soon after the Senior Bowl and Philadelphia drafted Cooper in April. Now that Jeremy Maclin is out for the year, Cooper earns a golden opportunity to start for the Eagles. It seems most observers and fans aren’t impressed with Cooper.

With the exception of some nice work with Vince Young a couple of years ago, I haven’t seen Cooper do much since his days at Florida so there’s a chance he hasn’t developed his game for the pros at the expected trajectory I thought he was capable. However, I have a sneaky feeling that those who are underwhelmed by Cooper are those who need to see a flashy game to be impressed by a skill player.

Here’s my predraft take of Riley Cooper from the 2010 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Cooper was my No.8 receiver overall behind the likes of Dez Bryant, Damian Williams, Golden Tate, Arrelious Benn, Andre Roberts, Eric Decker, and Blair White – and of course, Demaryius Thomas.

Report Highlights

Cooper scored a 74 and an 81 on two game reports I performed on him as a Senior against Alabama and Cincinnati in the 2010 Sugar Bowl. These reports are on a 100-point scale and Cooper’s scores placed him in the range of a bench player with the skill to contribute immediately in selected packages if needed. These evaluations were done a year or two before I began documenting a “Ceiling Score,” which is my way of gauging his potential at the NFL level based on the ease or difficulty of what he needed to learn.

Looking back through my notes, I think Cooper’s ceiling score would have been in the high 80s – low 90s, which is starter material.  Below are cleaned up play-by-play notes from these two games. Cooper’s stats versus Alabama:

  • 7 Targets
  • 1 Missed Target (QB)
  • 2 Drop
  • 2 Dropped After Contact
  • 77 Yards
  • 51 YAC

Cooper’s stats versus Cincinnati:

  • 8 Targets
  • 1 Missed Target (QB)
  • 7 Receptions
  • 2 Difficult Receptions
  • 181 Yards
  • 60 YAC
  • 1 TD

Here are my overall summaries of these two games as well as my actual play-by-play notes of Riley Cooper that describe what I saw.

Overall Strengths (vs. Alabama): I think Cooper has a lot of potential to be a starting NFL receiver. He is a physical player against press coverage and uses his size to his advantage to get open. He has enough speed to separate vertically and he can adjust to the football in the air. He demonstrates some facility with pro-style, intermediate routes. He is a good runner in the open field who can dip in and out of traffic and shows good balance to get yards after contact. He is a physical player as a blocker and can help on special teams.

I don’t think Cooper is as athletic as Jordy Nelson, but he might be a better receiver at this stage of his development. Michael Irvin would be at the top of the spectrum of receivers to compare Cooper (stylistically). I think he has more upside and down field speed than Malcolm Kelly.

Overall Strengths (vs. Cincinnati): Good route runner. He sets up defenders in single coverage on deep routes with subtle, but very effective moves to get defenders to turn their hips at the wrong time. he can adjust to the ball in the air and make catches with his hands away from his body in tight coverage. Combine these skills with what I think is good speed and Cooper has NFL potential.

Overall Weaknesses (vs. Alabama): Cooper dropped the tough catches after contact that an NFL receiver needs to make. He has good, but not great speed. He needs to prove he can run the entire route tree. Cooper also lacks dynamic athleticism to become a major open-field threat.

Overall Weaknesses (vs. Cincinnati): I didn’t see him face press coverage. he will need to work on extending his routes in the pros because he’ll be playing with quarterbacks that will have the ability to look to more than one quadrant of the field.

What To Look For In Eagles Camp

Cooper will need to catch the ball in tight coverage and after contact. If he still has consistency issues against physical play as the ball arrives, he’s only going to be a role player because his athleticism is good enough, but only good enough to get initial separation and then use his frame to shield the defender from the ball. This means Cooper will be a better fit for the quarterback capable of squeezing the ball into a tight window. If you hear about Cooper working extra with quarterbacks to get more rapport this will be a good sign, because he’s not going to get two steps on defenders and run the ball down as much as he’ll have to make a catch with a defender draped over his back.

Cooper’s size and strength makes him a good candidate for red zone targets on fades, crossing routes, and plays at the end line. If Nick Foles or Matt Barkley see the field, Cooper could earn a lot more targets in the red zone than I think he will with Vick under center. Foles was a pretty good fade route passer at Arizona and Barkley to Woods was often a thing of beauty at USC.

As I mentioned earlier, I did see some nice work with Cooper and Vince Young on scramble drills and I think this is where he may shine with Vick for some big plays behind the defense. However, this is contingent on Vick not leaning heavily on zone-beater Jason Avant, who has some of the most reliable mitts on the team and works a shorter-safer range of the field.

2013 Outlook

I expect DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, James Casey, and Zach Ertz to earn the most targets this year. Cooper might threaten Casey or Ertz’s standing on the totem pole, but I think it’s more likely that Jason Avant, Damaris Johnson, and even Russell Shephard will earn some looks in a rotation that limit Cooper’s targets. However, if Foles or Barkley earn time, Cooper might surprise in the way fellow teammate David Nelson did with the Bills during the Ryan Fitzpatrick era.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

RSP Flashback: Dennis Pitta

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
What Pitta is doing here was commonplace for him at BYU - healthy or otherwise. Photo by Phil Romans.
What Pitta is doing here was commonplace for him at BYU – healthy or otherwise. Photo by Phil Romans.

One of the most common questions I get from new readers is What did you think about [insert player name here] before [NFL team] drafted him? For the next month, I’m posting scouting reports of some of my bigger hits, misses, and lingering questions when it comes to the past eight years of evaluating rookies for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I’ll also include the lessons I learned – or am still learning – from the experience of evaluating these players. [Author’s Note: I wrote this about Pitta two weeks ago. Too bad about his injury, he was poised for another strong season]

“[Pitta] is a tough, versatile player who might not wow teams with field-stretching plays, but he will be a great safety valve capable of the big, “little” plays that sustain drives and seal wins . . . paired with a veteran QB and [he] could out-produce some of the more athletic prospects in this class.”

– 2010 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

The 2010 tight end class was a great group that included no less than 16 players – including Dennis Pitta – who have made NFL teams and contributed meaningful minutes:

  • Jimmy Graham
  • Rob Gronkowski
  • Aaron Hernandez
  • Garrett Graham
  • Jermaine Gresham
  • Tony Moeaki
  • Ed Dickson
  • Jim Dray
  • Michael Hoomanawanui
  • Dorin Dickerson
  • Nate Byham
  • Andrew Quarless
  • Anthony McCoy
  • Dedrick Epps

I think 11 of these 15 tight ends above are better athletes than Pitta, but I had the BYU prospect ranked No.4 in this class – over some major names in this group. One was Gronkowski, who was suffering from back issues and I had concerns about his long-term viability.

Another was Graham, who was inexperienced and I felt it was difficult to rank him higher for having one great dimension to his game when the right team might not pick him to exploit it. Graham was one of several players between 2006-2010 who inspired an RSP Post-Draft because I mentioned in the 2010 RSP that the right team picking this Hurricanes tight end would be rewarded.

A third player with a higher profile than Pitta that I placed lower in my rankings was Gresham. The Sooners star was too inconsistent in all phases of the game despite his physical talents. While I whiffed on Demaryius Thomas because I didn’t pay enough attention to his workouts, Pitta’s injury situation on the field and the system at BYU actually highlighted certain skills that made me think the tight end would be productive NFL player.

The Cougars tight end was in a knee brace that restricted his movement in the games I watched. And it was what Pitta was able to do at a higher level than most tight ends I’ve watched in the college game while physically limited: play long against tight coverage and find the open zone.

http://youtu.be/m11pJJXm3Hs

He also reminded me of the likes of Frank Wycheck and Todd Christensen because of his skill creating openings.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/of1Y_N2jaQI]

Purely from the standpoint of athleticism, you could joke that neither Wycheck nor Christensen belonged in the NFL. However, their smarts, ability to handle a physical brand of football, and skill to do all the little things to generate big plays with and without the ball in their hands separate Pitta from the likes of his more physically talented teammate Ed Dickson – a good player, but lacks that extra level of savvy that would make him a borderline star, but has him planted behind Pitta despite being picked a round earlier.

There are a  lot of things the highlights reveal about Pitta’s game that makes him a tough player both against man and zone coverage. First is the wide catch radius. Throw the ball high, low, outside or behind, and Pitta can adjust. Combine this with his ability to make plays in traffic and skill to work with his quarterback when the play breaks down and all of these qualities compensate for his lack of speed.

There were numerous things I learned or had reinforced as lessons from this 2010 tight end class:

  • I needed a post-draft analysis because of team fit (Graham-Hernandez).
  • Physical skills allow an evaluator to project how a player might fare against man coverage, but not necessarily zone coverage – where Pitta thrives.
  • Smart play lurks beyond stats and workout data.
  • Toughness to play physical and productive football while hurt separates great athletes from good football players.
  • I needed to document my process for ranking players in greater detail to connect the dots between game analysis and rankings analysis.

Here are my observations of Dennis Pitta from 2010.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 7/26/2013

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Listens I – Johnny Adams 

[youtube=http://youtu.be/YAi0ZYI8EKs]

Thanks

You’d think it’s routine for me thank you for making the RSP blog a regular pit stop on your journey through the week. It is, but it doesn’t feel like it.  I have great readers who not only send me links to music, they send me CDs. They not only send me links to articles they find interesting, they send me books. And they not only send me well wishes, but cards for the holidays.

That’s crazy cool. Even for a reasonably private guy like me, who can do the extrovert thing, but naturally craves moments of alone time and silence throughout the day. Think about it, does an extrovert really spend this much time in a room by himself studying football like it’s research?  I suppose there are some, but they’re slightly more common than a two-headed shark.

Your visits, your follows, and your purchases of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio provide the emotional and fiscal encouragement to continue this journey and I am grateful for your patronage. So is my 12-year-old cat, who is currently holding my mouse hostage until I finish writing this post and get some sleep.

Luckily, I get around a keyboard well enough to tell you to do yourself a favor and support the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Sign up for my mailing list to get updates on posts and purchase the publication. The 2013 RSP is $19.95 and includes over 1200 pages of pre-draft analysis that’s great for long-term use as a fantasy owner or draftnik and a post-draft publication that most of my readers believe is worth the price on its own for its tiered rankings, average draft position data from early season dynasty drafts, and value scores derived from this analysis. Get a sample report here.

Best of all, you’re supporting more than the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I donate 10 percent of every sale to Darkness to Light, an organization whose mission is to address and prevent sexual abuse in communities across the country through training programs to the people who matter most – adults in local communities who interact with children like teachers, police officers, little league coaches, and clergy. Download the RSP here.

Football Reads

  • Why Don’t Woodpeckers Get Concussions – Ryan Riddle and Jene Bramel (and to a lesser extend me) had a Twitter discussion about concussions. It lead to the topic of why some animals (Rams and Woodpeckers) don’t suffer brain injuries. This article connects it back to football.
  • Breaking Down Sam Bradford’s Approach To A Game-Winning Drive – Allen Dumonjic’s The Tape Never Lies pieces are always worth a read. He was first on my list of writers I wanted to guest write for this blog, but he’s got bigger and better things ahead for him.
  • 2013 PPR Auction Values – Good advice from Sigmund Bloom on how to develop a good auction strategy. Simple, easy, intuitive, and totally Bloom.

Listens II – Freddie King: “I’m Goin’ Down”

[youtube=http://youtu.be/V_ONyukSLqA]

Non-Football Reads

Views – These Images Might Tempt You To Eat Bugs

These images are from David George Gordon’s The Eat-A-Bug Cookbook and re-posted from the NPR Blog The Salt. My comments on what I’d eat below as well as Paulette’s. Note I’m a moderately adventurous eater and Mrs. P ain’t.

Sheesh! kebabs can be made with Eastern Lubber Grasshoppers (pictured here), katydids or other large-bodied arthropods.

Me: I’d try the grasshopper-kebabs, I can already imagine the balance of the sweet, sumptuousness of the grilled peppers complementing the crunch of the bug. Even the bug has a beautiful presentation with that hue of pinkness.

Paulette: Hmm…maybe if I closed my eyes, but if you put this in front of me I’d say two things: 1) You must be joking. And 2) Where’s my steak?

Fried green tomato hornworms

Me: Beautiful presentation . . .

Paulette: What? I don’t eat food that is as bright green as nuclear waste. I also dislike dishes heavy on tomatoes –

Me: And worms?

Paulette: Especially those. Although in an abstract way, it’s a beautiful picture, but as you know I don’t eat glowing green food. You? You could eat avocado all day.

Me: You eat that guacamole at the place near your office.

Paulette: That’s because they make a show of preparing it and I see everything they put in it.

Gordon recommends dusting the deep-fried tarantula spider with smoked paprika.

Paulette: [Retracts instinctively from the screen in horror (she has severe arachnophobia) and after her breathing slows down] Why did you even show me this?!

Me: It’s the first time I’ve seen this, too. Looks a little like calamari.

Paulette: Hell no . . . a girl has got to eat, but I’d starve to death first.

Me: If you didn’t suffocate from hyperventilation first.

Paulette: That too!

Me: I wonder what they do with the fur?

Paulette: That’s not funny . . .

Listens III – The Black Crowes and The Tedeschi Trucks Band

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNJRx1cMYpM&w=420&h=315]

RSP Flashback: Vincent Brown (and Austin Collie and Steve Smith)

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Vincent Brown's evaluation for me was a culmination of lessons learned before watching him. Photo by mclanea.
Vincent Brown’s evaluation for me was a culmination of lessons learned before watching him. Photo by mclanea.

One of the most common questions I get from new readers is What did you think about [insert player name here] before [NFL team] drafted him? For the next month, I’m posting scouting reports and/or thoughts on some of my bigger hits, misses, and lingering questions when it comes to the past eight years of evaluating rookies for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I’ll also include the lessons I learned – or am still learning – from the experience of evaluating these players.

Quickness Is More Important Than Speed

But what I think gives Collie a chance to produce is his burst. He’s not a burner, but he is among the quickest receivers in this class. He may not catch 50-yard bombs with great separation on his opponent, but he’s faster than most in his class during his first 20 yards down field. As he gains experience, Collie will be able to set up his routes around his burst.

– 2009 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

Put Brown on a team with a strong play action game and he has the similar early route speed of an Austin Collie to get on top of a defender and generate big gains in addition to the between-the hash heroics of a possession receiver. Brown’s skills as a route runner, his technique against press coverage, and comfort level with physical play makes him a starter-caliber prospect regardless of a slower 40-time.

– 2011 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

To describe what I learned from watching Vincent Brown, I have to go back to what I saw with Austin Collie and Steve Smith. In a 2009 wide receiver class that included the likes of Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, and Hakeem Nicks, I thought Collie had the best pair of hands I’ve seen since Larry Fitzgerald.  Nicks had this around-the-back catch against West Virginia and the 49ers staff raves about Crabtree’s hands, and both can make showy plays. Then there’s Fitzgerald, who makes the kind of ostentatious catches that seem impossible.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNcMF6ozE_Y&start=21w=420&h=315]

With the exception of a play at BYU where Collie dug a ball millimeters from the ground, Collie’s difficult grabs are generally understated. However, they are the type of passes that I often see more heralded prospects drop:

  • Seams, crossers, and post routes where the receiver just clears the underneath defender as the ball arrives, all the while aware of a strong chance he’ll get sandwiched. I call these Money Catches.
  • Low passes on comeback routes.
  • Catching the corner fade with the outside hand while looking over the inside shoulder.

Inexplicably, you won’t see a lot of these plays in YouTube highlights of Collie’s work at BYU. But a discussion of hands when it comes to receivers is talking about how well a basketball player can shoot. While there are a dozens of plays every year where the ostentatious catch is necessary, it’s a small percentage overall. When it comes to evaluating receivers, there’s a point where it crosses the line from utility to eye candy.

Basketball and football players have to show they can move with and without the ball and just like great shots and catches, speed can also cross the line from utility to eye candy. I don’t care if a receiver can beat everyone on the field in a race if he can’t make the right decisions to run the correct route,  he can’t handle physical play from those covering him over top, and he lacks the concentration to win the football in difficult situations, the value of his speed diminishes greatly.

Sabermetics/Analytics: Good Intentions Needing Reassessment

I think most fans and sabermetricians in football place far too much emphasis on the 40 time. I believe they don’t understand the actual cut-off point for what is a good 40-time. They place the cutoff in the 4.5 range. Based on the articles I’ve read at several sites, 4.5-speed is adequate and 4.3 is elite.

If I’m correct, it’s a misplaced notion. While a receiver with great straight line speed can be dominant, he’s only great if he can do everything else that a receiver is supposed to do: process the game in real-time, catch the ball against defenders, and run the offense with precision.  It’s rare for a receiver to out-run coverage with a safety over the top without some form of manipulation from another player. While a fast receiver may command that attention and place more stress on a defense it’s getting rarer despite the fact that receivers are getting faster with all of this emphasis on 40 time and 40-time training.

Regardless of the current NFL paradigm, I believe 4.6-4.7 – speed is adequate as long as that player has refined (or the potential to refine) technical and conceptual skills and adequate quickness. This is where players like Collie, Smith, and Brown shined. Their initial quickness is better than adequate. The same could be said for Anquan Boldin, Brandon Lloyd, Hakeem Nicks, and DeAndre Hopkins, who were all slower 40 runners.

I think the intent of analytics is a good one. They want to provide takeaways that help readers, fans, and in some cases, NFL teams. However, I have my fair share of interaction with marketing research – a field that is growing and getting attention just like football analytics.

The difference is that people who do marketing analytics understand the difficulty of truly arriving at short takeaways that executive teams desire. This is why it’s still difficult for them to get a seat at the boardroom table. Football analytics is a hot area, but it executives are also demanding takeaways. If market research is struggling to deliver these simple and elegant answers and they have strong academic training in statistical modeling, I fear that some in the football analytics field are are marketing their method as “the truth” when their methods would not pass muster in a true research environment.

Until personnel staff, sabermetricians, and fans actual focus on asking the right question (What is adequate speed and burst?), then I think they will struggle to deliver any worthwhile answer and just continue to torture data under the banner of objectivity. The problem is that many of these stats-based theories lack the setting and resources to do the quality of work required to generate optimal value. Still, it’s entertaining and don’t get me wrong, there are those who have the perspective to deliver nuggets of good information without getting too ambitious – Chase Stuart and Doug Drinen are two of my faves.

Just like scouting players based on tape, football analytics is still young. Scouting may be its older brother with a lot of dysfunctional traits, but analytics is a toddler in the same family that hasn’t worked through its hangups to avoid impacting its second son.

Team Fit Is Most Important

While Moss had the precision and speed to run under balls, he also could win 50/50 targets. Not all can do so and this makes fit to a players strengths a paramount importance in scouting. Photo by Brian J. McDermott.
While Moss had the precision and speed to run under balls, he also could win 50/50 targets. Not all can do so and this makes fit to a players strengths a paramount importance in scouting. Photo by Brian J. McDermott.

With an accurate quarterback who possesses exquisite timing, quickness outweighs speed. This is why a player like Collie or Steve Smith were great fits for a quarterback like Peyton Manning, but not so much for passer who relies more pure arm strength over precision. Randy Moss and Cris Carter were perfect fits for Daunte Culpepper, because the Vikings passer had truth arm strength. Moss could run under anything or win any 50/50 ball. Carter could also win 50/50 balls and had an incredible catch radius.

Culpepper didn’t need as much precision with these two as he would with Keenan McCardell, Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, or Steve Smith. At the same time, Collie and Smith could make the tough plays in traffic. Pair them with a quarterback with the confidence to allow them to win the ball, and they could still thrive. However, that quarterback has to demonstrate good decision-making when to take that type of chance.

This is a good example why team fit is a huge factor with evaluating players. One list of rankings does not fit all.

The Colts list had to value precision as well as physical and mental quickness. What you will see in any BYU highlight video of Collie is a consistent ability to get behind linebackers, corners, and safeties on vertical routes despite the fact that he was labeled as slow.

A Quick Thinker, Acts quicker.

Get the early advantage and it shows up later. This is why Collie won so many vertical routes or is running wide open through zones. His big plays at Indy often came on quick-hitting, precision plays. These are difficult passes because of the mental component. Think about how many Collie and Manning connected on and you’ll see how quickness often trumps speed.

Collie’s RSP score was an 85, which is high for a wide receiver in my system. Only Crabtree, Harvin, and Darrius Heyward-Bey (a lesson learned that it’s very important for a receiver to show he can catch the ball away from his body and not allow athleticism to gloss over technique) had higher scores that year.

Although I thought Collie could get separation in the NFL because of his precision, burst, and concentration, I wasn’t confident enough in my assessment to rank him higher than 12th in this class when he should have been no lower than seventh.

This is something I also saw with Giants receiver Steve Smith in 2007. The former USC receiver had the burst to get separation but not the long speed to have a lot of uncontested vertical targets unless his quarterback could demonstrate precision timing. Eli Manning lacked that refined skill during the Smith years and threw the ball late on several play action passes where Smith was wide open with a double move.

Lessons Don’t Come In A Linear Procession

Steve Smith didn't validate my notions until his third year - six months after evaluating Austin Collie. Photo by J. Handleman.
Steve Smith didn’t validate my notions until his third year – six months after evaluating Austin Collie. Photo by J. Handleman.

You would think I would have learned that Collie could hang in the NFL as a starter if I saw similar qualities from Steve Smith (.PDF Sample) as a top-3 receiver in my 2007 class. However, the validation of these points came too late for Collie because I produced my evaluation of Collie about 6-8 months prior to the 2009 season – the Pro Bowl year where Smith caught 107 passes for 1220 yards and 7 touchdowns.

That’s the fascinating thing about life – it doesn’t take a linear path (no matter how much we want to torture ourselves to make it so). Where these lessons began to take an applicable shape for me was in 2011 with Vincent Brown. The San Diego State receiver scored an 89 in my evaluation process – only A.J. Green (98) and Greg Salas (90) where higher.

I thought Salas had a ruggedness that was similar to Jordy Nelson and Michael Irvin. However, he didn’t show that same skill early in St. Louis and it cost him. A theory I have with Salas – beyond his own performance – is that once a player gets to the NFL and has NFL tape, teams rely more on the NFL scouts and the college book gets less weight. While the case doesn’t look good for Salas I think there’s still an element of his NFL story where the jury is out.

It also means we’re all still deliberating on Vincent Brown. He flashed excellent skill as a rookie, missed most of the year with an ankle injury last year, and has now earned a lot of praise from Chargers’ head coach Mike McCoy for his routes. Brown’s skill to get into optimal position combined with his hands makes him a player capable of earning time on the field, but he reason he fits so well with Philip Rivers is the fact he’s physical enough to make the Steve Smith-style money plays.

Rivers is a fearless passer. He has good timing over the middle, but tends to loft the ball on deeper routes. This means we see more plays where the receiver has to win the ball rather than run under it.

Rivers had this type of player with Vincent Jackson – a huge, downfield bully of a receiver who could win in tight coverage. Danario Alexander has some of this in his game, but has to stay healthy. Brown isn’t that big, but like Derrick Mason or Henry Ellard of years past, he has the skills to win the football in the air on intermediate and deep routes where timing doesn’t have to be pitch-perfect.

Here’s my pre-draft report on Vincent Brown. It’s a culmination of lessons I’ve been learning with the likes of Collie and Smith. Regardless of his future performance, I saw enough of him as a rookie to know that he has starter skill if he plays to his ability.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

RSP Flashback: Demaryius Thomas

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A.J. Green and Demaryius Thomas? Choose your death cornerbacks . . . Photo by Jeffery Beall.
Whiff  . . . Yep. That’s what I did on Thomas in 2010. I can laugh about it now (a little bit). Photo by Jeffery Beall.

One of the most common questions I get from new readers is What did you think about [insert player name here] before [NFL team] drafted him? For the next month, I’m posting scouting reports and/or thoughts on some of my bigger hits, misses, and lingering questions when it comes to the past eight years of evaluating rookies for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I’ll also include the lessons I learned – or am still learning – from the experience of evaluating these players.

Setting Can Make All The Difference

“[Calvin] Johnson, is likely the next great all-purpose threat. Thomas’ talent is far more comparable to Plaxico Burress, who was a very good player once he developed, but not a great player.”

– 2010 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

I whiffed on Demaryius Thomas. If I was a running back and my take on the Broncos stud receiver was an attempt to pass protect for my readers, here’s a visual of what happened:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0F3scSsrNOY&start=104w=560&h=315]

All I can do is go back to the huddle, say I’m sorry, and work harder. I underestimated Thomas’ speed and relied too much on my analysis within the confines of the Georgia Tech offense. Setting can make all the difference when evaluating a player.

Those who missed big on Cam Newton only saw him as a read-option player. He has been stout in the pocket. Many wrote off Drew Brees as a system quarterback. Perhaps he was merely a great match in two different NFL systems and that’s it, but I’ll take what he’s been dishing to opponents for nearly a decade. And every small school player is “doing it against inferior competition.”

I missed on Thomas because I couldn’t look past the run-heavy system. I should have learned more about the defensive backs Thomas faced and noted the type of throws targeting the Yellow Jackets receiver. Pair these things with Thomas’ minor consistency issues as a pass catcher and it was a disastrous analysis of his potential.

I learned that I had to think about what aspects of the position are an easy or difficult fix for coaches when they work with prospects. Accounting for the development curve – especially in an unusual offensive setting is necessary.

Thomas’ workout times before his foot injury should have also been an indicator me to double-check my work. Whenever a player demonstrates something away from his usual setting that you didn’t see before, it’s likely there are flashes of that skill in his normal setting or a reason why that setting is hiding it.

Here’s my overrated/underrated section from the 2010 RSP (Overrated Underrated 2010).  I wish I could say I missed on Thomas because it was my Georgia bias versus a Tech player, but despite graduating from the University of Georgia, working at the university for nearly seven years, and living in Athens for 19 of the past 20 years, I’m barely more than a casual fan. The jury is still out on Jacoby Ford – who is also “overrated” here. However, if I were to judge Ford solely on his limited time in an NFL lineup, I’d say I was wrong there, too.

In fact, I’ve never been to a Georgia game. I’m not sure that’s going to happen, either. Watching games is a different experience for me now and the importance of setting is paramount.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

RSP Flashback: Matt Leinart

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Why is QB Matt Leinart an example of the "Four-car Garage Theory?" National Football Post Director of College Scouting Wes Bunting explains in this conversation with Matt Waldman. Photo by TheBrit_2.
Matt Leinart was a great lesson in trusting one’s own process. Photo by TheBrit_2.

One of the most common questions I get from new readers is What did you think about [insert player name here] before [NFL team] drafted him? For the next month, I’m posting scouting reports of some of the RSP’s bigger hits, misses, and lingering questions during my past eight years of evaluating rookies. I’ll also include the lessons I learned – or am still learning – from the experience of evaluating these players.

Trust Your Eyes

“I believe he has a good chance to become a productive NFL starter, but the reason he is overrated in my book has to do with his arm strength, accuracy, and the ability to protect himself in the pocket.”

– 2006 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

I think trusting what you see is the most important lesson I can share with anyone when it comes to observation and analysis. Like many simple statements, it’s easy to do for the young and innocent, but takes a lot of work if you’ve accumulated even an average amount of adult life experience.

Football evaluation tests my skill at trusting my eyes every day. The fact that there’s no shortage of opinions in mass media at every turn compounds the challenge. What you read, watch, and hear about a player becomes voices in your head that you can hear as you watch the film. Sometimes it’s helpful, but it can also increase the difficulty of separating what you think from public opinion.

Matt Leinart was that rookie rite of passage for me in this respect.

The darling of football prospects who opted to stay in school for another year despite talk of earning a top-10 ticket to the NFL as a junior, Leinart was the next Tom Brady. That was the hype and the hype was everywhere.

But a funny thing happened as I began watching Leinart and using a set list of criteria to evaluate his game: there was a disconnect between what I was seeing from the USC quarterback and the hype. The realization it was time for me to keep the voices at bay was when I heard a color commentator praise Leinart’s arm after watching wide receiver Steve Smith make a great adjustment on a bad throw down the middle of the field to save his quarterback’s bacon.

At that point, I stopped reading other people’s work and began watching games with the audio muted. It was like taking the training wheels off and riding with my own sense of inner balance. When I began sharing my opinion that Leinart wasn’t the best quarterback in this 2006 class (Jay Cutler and Vince Young were my top two in that order) the response wasn’t great. The fact that I had him tied for third with Bruce Gradkowski would have made it worse if I had any sort of following.

It was good that I encountered this type of feedback early, because it doesn’t matter what people think. If you truly want to learn then you have to trust what you see. If you’re wrong for the right reasons you’ll learn faster than you will when you’re right for the wrong reasons.

Those “reasons” are your eyes vs. their eyes. There is nothing wrong with learning something from another person, but you better truly see what they’re showing. If you don’t, question it.

Here are my thoughts on Matt Leinart at the time I was studying him at USC. Again, the RSP and my knowledge has come a long away from 2006. Even so, it’s still a test to make sure I’m using my eyes to watch a player and not listening to other voices. Sometimes it’s that subtle a difference.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 7/19/2013

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Geno Smith reminds me of Tony Romo. I see it, but I also see the other players on that spectrum of style. See below. Photo by Football Schedule.
Check out Scott Kacsmar’s article on Tony Romo. See below. Photo by Football Schedule.

Thank You

I’m fortunate to be at the intersection of two great football communities: fantasy football and draft evaluation. On the whole, the writers I interact with are knowledgeable, hard working, and humble. So it’s an honor when I see these members of my audience also participating in contests like the Jadeveon Clowney event this month.

If you haven’t purchased the 2013 RSP, remember that it also includes the post-draft. If you are new to the blog, here’s a little more about the RSP and some sample material. Remember, 10 percent of each purchase is donated to Darkness to Light to providing training to communities to prevent and address the epidemic of sexual abuse.

Views – Chad and Terrell Would Fit In Well

[youtube=http://youtu.be/0bomkgXeDkE]

Football Reads

Views – Why We Should Build Wooden Skyscrapers (Awesome)

[ted id=1785]

Non-Football Reads

Listens – The Hippest Version of Twinkle Twinkle Little Star You’ll Hear

[youtube=http://youtu.be/j2DEfTzb9zc]

These four have made a lot of great recording artists sound good in their time. You’d probably only know them if you were a student at the University of Miami. Glad I had that chance. The final movement is a lot of fun. You’re little kid will dig it.

Listens – The Saxophonist Who Kept Coltrane’s Interest Until Trane Died 

http://youtu.be/Ag1uKsbpKqA

The saxophonist is John Gilmore, who is best known for playing with Sun Ra. If you don’t know who Sun Ra is, you’ll either love or hate his music. This setting is a much more straight ahead gig with Art Blakey. Many people didn’t know Gilmore gigged with the Messengers. If you listen to Trane then you can hear the Gilmore influence in the solo.

Listens – On The Couch w/Bloom, Cosell, and Yours Truly

In This Episode: Sigmund Bloom, Matt Waldman, and Greg Cosell (NFL Films) discuss the NFL. Topics Include – the decline of the importance of the running back in the NFL, the limited sample size of read option quarterbacks, how Tom Brady will adjust to the loss of Aaron Hernandez, whats next for Sam Bradford, Jay Cutler, and Andy Dalton, differing opinions on LeVeon Bell, plus more!

RSP Flashback: Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Beast Mode. Photo by Matt McGee
Beast Mode. Photo by Matt McGee

One of the most common questions I get from new readers is What did you think about [insert player name here] before [NFL team] drafted him? For the next month, I’m going to post scouting reports of some of my bigger hits, misses, and lingering questions when it comes to the past eight years of evaluating rookies for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I’ll also include the lessons I learned – or am still learning – from the experience of evaluating these players.

It’s Possible To Mistake Long Speed for Stamina

“[Lynch] has the potential to be an excellent, all-purpose back in the NFL. He’d be excellent in a west coast system such as Seattle, Philly, or Green Bay.”

– 2007 Rookie Scouting Portfolio 

“Raw talent alone, Peterson is one of the top two players in this entire draft. if he can be more disciplined as a runner – choices and ball protection – he as the type of rare power-speed-balance combos shared among the all-time great backs of the Brown-Dickerson-Campbell lineage.”

– 2007 Rookie Scouting Portfolio 

Marshawn Lynch was my No.1 running back in the 2007 NFL Draft, including Adrian Peterson – by the smallest of margins. The reason was the polish in Lynch’s game versus the raw talent of Peterson’s. I hated making this call at the time because any fool could see how good Peterson could be.

What I learned from Peterson: I don’t think I have invoked as great a trio of runners to compare to one back’s ability before or since watching Peterson at Oklahoma. You can ask Mike MacGregor and Mike Krueger of FFToday.com about the time I made them sit through a taping of Peterson running like a wild horse against Haloti Ngata’s Oregon team.  After a long day of meetings at Krueger’s loft in Kansas City, they weren’t that interested. I didn’t care; I was smitten with Peterson.

However,  his two biggest issues – discipline with choices at the line of scrimmage and protecting the football – were problematic enough to put talented runners on the bench early in their careers. While I didn’t think either would endanger Peterson’s career – although fumbles were problematic – I made the mistake of thinking the sum of Lynch’s game earned a higher ranking than the totality of the Peterson experience.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Nhr8oYBoiUI]

Classic over analysis.

What I learned from Lynch: Lynch’s versatility as a receiver and interior runner were appealing, but I misjudged his long speed. Even when I look at these highlights, I see that I mistook his stamina for quality, long-speed. There’s a difference. Lynch’s best game-breaking runs often come when he’s using the width of the field to weave through the defense while maintaining a pace and intensity that wears out the pursuit.

As we’ve seen, Lynch’s burst, skill after contact, and footwork make him a top-flight runner in the NFL. However, it’s his stamina on long runs that has helped him create one of the five most great and meaningful runs in the history of the NFL.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/W0URyxkeSZM]

It’s this stamina that is closely related to the trait Lynch displayed at Cal that is perhaps his most endearing to football fans: toughness. I watched numerous games where Lynch was a big part of the offense despite playing through injuries against top competition. The most memorable was a 25-touch, 109-yard performance against a 2006 USC defense that sent numerous players to the NFL.

Lynch carried the ball 20 times, successfully blocked 8 assignments, broke 6 tackles, earned 5 first downs, and caught all 5 targets while playing with 2 sprained ankles. He routinely gained 2-5 yards after contact in this game.

Peterson may have been a wild horse, but Lynch was a true workhorse. However if I had judged Lynch’s speed better and had more experience watching runners work past the same issues that plagued Peterson, I think Peterson would have remained in the top spot.

These .PDFs of Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch are more game summaries than in-depth, play-by-play analysis – the RSP has evolved quite a bit since it’s inception. However, the checklists and information still give you a strong sense of what I saw from two of the best runners in the game today.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.