Date Archives August 2013

Futures at Football Outsiders: Venric Mark, Offensive Weapon?

Is this the year McCluster gets a shot to maximize his skill set? Photo by Tennessee Journalist Wade Rackley.
Is this the year McCluster gets a shot to maximize his skill set? If so, it might help Northwestern runner-receiver-return specialist Venric Mark’s draft stock . Photo by Tennessee Journalist Wade Rackley.

Venric Mark: Offensive Weapon?

by Matt Waldman

A couple of months ago, an employee from an NFL player-personnel department asked for preliminary input on a project he’s undertaking. He asked me to relay things I watch when I study offensive skill players that he could quantify. One of the things I shared pertains to running backs.

What many quality pros at the position have in common is how they handle backfield penetration. Every runner looks effective when he can generate momentum towards an open crease, however it requires a strong integration of multiple skill sets to foil early defensive penetration.

These skills include anticipating the penetration during the exchange with the quarterback, avoiding the defense after the exchange, and the runner redirecting his path to minimize a potential loss after the defense disrupts the intent of the offensive play. I see this happen most when a defense is dominating an offensive line and limiting the runner’s box score production.

Some the most memorable evaluations I have performed on prospects have been runners during games where their teams were overmatched:

  • Marshall’s Ahmad Bradshaw versus a Top-10 worthy Tennessee defense.
  • Tulane’s Matt Forte against LSU’s top-ranked defense.
  • LSU’s Joseph Addai facing a top-ranked Auburn defense.

All three players performed poorly according to the box score data in these games, but what I saw them do on the field was impressive. Season-long production may demonstrate that the player is contributing to the team, but it’s one of the most overrated aspects of evaluating a prospect.

I find it more important to examine player performance independent from the quality of his production. I prefer to judge his skill on a series of behaviors and processes within the physical and conceptual scope of his position and his role in the game. This is more illuminating of a player’s potential than a box score.

However, there is an added layer of complexity that comes into play when a prospect has the talent to produce in the NFL, but he plays a position in college football where his physical dimensions don’t match the NFL’s traditional prototype.

Underscoring this challenge is the NFL embracing the latest offensive concepts that are successful in the college game. The more a team spreads the field, opts for read-option plays, and uses a multiple scheme, the more likely the team will be scouting players who were successful in these schemes. The problem is that, by traditional NFL standards, those players aren’t big enough to ride the pro rollercoaster.

When this happens, we often see these players earn vague position titles from coaches like utility back or offensive weapon. There are exceptions, but the vaguer the position title, the less likely the player will have a defined role and impact in the offense. It’s why this integration of skills to anticipate-avoid-redirect may not be as enlightening to scouts when they watch a smaller runner back.

These players are also a test of an organization’s overall vision. A personnel department can scout a player and determine he’s a worthwhile prospect, but if the organization isn’t aligned in its thinking, the coaching staff can miscast its young talent into an offensive design that doesn’t suit his skills.

Nothing like shopping for groceries to provide the chef all the ingredients for a fantastic Italian meal only to see him use these goods for a Mexican dinner.

Darren SprolesDexter McCluster, and Tavon Austin all fit that player type. McCluster was more Sproles-like in style when he joined the Chiefs, but the team had its share of running back talent. They converted the Ole Miss star into a full-time wide receiver and he has yet to make a real impact. Place McCluster in a system similar to the Saints and I think he’d be a standout.

Even as new schemes create a need for players without a positional prototype, “offensive weapons” without a traditional position have been around for decades. Two players that come to mind –- and there are several before them -– are Warrick Dunn and Eric Metcalf.

Dunn’s physical dimensions are in the same range as the McCluster-Sproles-Austin trio, but he proved he could do the dirty work between the tackles as a true running back. In contrast, Metcalf was a bigger player than all four of these prospects, but Bill Belichick’s use of Metcalf at running back in Cleveland yielded mixed results. Some of this was due to an old-fashioned scheme; the rest was Metcalf’s style.

Metcalf’s production made him a mediocre running back in Cleveland, but he was a good receiver in the short zone of the field and a fine return specialist. When the Falcons acquired Metcalf, they converted him to a full-time receiver in a run-and-shoot offense. Metcalf had 104 catches, 1180 yards, and eight scores in his first season.

Scheme made all the difference. Pair Metcalf with Belichick in New England and I suspect the Patriots’ head coach would have used Metcalf more like Wes Welker or what I expect the team to do with a healthy Shane Vereen this year.

A college player who reminds me of Eric Metcalf is Venric Mark. The Northwestern running back has flashed a similar type of skill to anticipate-avoid-redirect when facing backfield penetration but at 5-foot-8 and somewhere between 175-185 pounds, scouts will wonder which positional template Mark fits into -– if he fits into one at all.

He’s a player whose draft stock will not just be determined by his skill and athleticism, but by the performance of players like McCluster and Austin. If both of these young NFL talents falter beyond their special teams prowess, Mark will have to demonstrate that he’s a Dunn-esque exception to the rule as a runner or display the receiving prowess in the intermediate zone to earn a definitive position title and role.

While Mark has a knack for minimizing losses, his display of this particular integrated skill set won’t likely hold the same value compared to the likes of Bradshaw, Forte, and Addai because of his current size. Depending on his physical growth, level of skill, and an NFL teams’ perception of his potential, Mark could either be viewed as a pure running back or labeled an “offensive weapon.”

Mark’s performance in last year’s opener at Syracuse provides a good showcase for his versatility, explosiveness, and vision — but it also raises more questions about his future than definitive answers.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Reads Listens Views 8/30/2013

Good player with a chance to seal this feature role with Andrew Brown out. Photo by Football Schedule.
Good player with a chance to seal this feature role with Andrew Brown out. Photo by Football Schedule.

Now What?

Andre Brown is gone and David Wilson will be a hot commodity. The same people hot for Wilson will probably be less thrilled about the Giants running back in the first month if Footballguys writer Matt Bitonti is correct about his assessment of New York’s offensive line. On our Thursday Night Audible podcast, Bitonti explained that the injuries to David Diehl and David Baas are good reasons why the unit may struggle early. If you want to play the ultra-slick move, don’t trade for Wilson now. Wait for the line to struggle, Wilson to have boom-bust production, and get him at a lesser cost by Weeks 3-5. By the end of the season, you might have a running back producing at a top-five clip in your fantasy leagues. The risk might be that Wilson’s big-play ability will compensate for the line’s struggles, but if you’re simply dealing from a strength, why not wait and see?

Also, look for the Giants to add a runner. Sigmund Bloom mentioned Tim Hightower. Good name. I’d also see if they scan the waiver wire or consider a bigger name free agent or trades for a backup if none of the pickings on the waiver wire next week suit them.

Marlon Brown continues to impress. So is Jordan Todman. Add Benny Cunningham to the list, and you’re looking at three players you might consider adding if you’re in a 20 (Brown), 30 (Todman), or 40-man (Cunningham) roster league. Brown has high-end starter upside. Todman has enough skill to provide committee support as a lead back if Maurice Jones-Drew gets hurt. And Cunningham? Think of a poor man’s Stephen Davis in terms of his style. I’m really impressed with his return from an injury that would have prevented many athletes from producing in training camp. The same goes for Brown.

Thank You

If you’re a new follower, Friday is the day of the week that I thank you for supporting the Rookie Scouting Portfolio Publication and this blog I maintain and provide links to things I’m reading, listening, and viewing. You may not like everything, but I think you’ll like something.

If you’re not aware, I donate 10 percent of every sale to the Darkness to Light, a non-profit that creates and administers training programs to combat and prevent sexual abuse in communities across the country. I do this because at this time I do not have time to give back as a volunteer to any cause on a regular basis.

I chose this cause for several reasons. Among them was the Penn State scandal, which was a macrocosm of the dynamics at play when a child is victimized and those responsible for protecting them make all the wrong decisions. Sexual abuse doesn’t “ruin” children. What’s often far more damaging is the behavior of the men and women who are supposed to protect, support, and help the children who report being victimized and are often not believed and even shamed for seeking help.

And it’s not just the victims who have to carry the burden of what was done to them by the abuser and those adults who did nothing to help them.

Download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio or better yet, donate to Darkness to Light.  Be a part of the solution they have developed to educate schools, community organizations, and civil service organizations on the data and dynamics that define this problem of epidemic proportions.  At the very least read these Five Steps to Protecting Children.

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Football Reads

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Buika: Tiny Desk Concert

Non-Football Reads

Views – Nothing Gets Me Ready For the Season More Than Watching Some Marshall Faulk

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Win a 2013 RSP Today – CONTEST CLOSED

Hint. Photo by PDA Photo
Hint. Photo by PDA Photo

I’m giving gave away three 10 Rookie Scouting Portfolios today. This is over 1400 pages of pre-draft and post-draft gold distilled into an easy-to-access reference guide for fantasy owners and draftniks alike. If you’re one of the first three people to find the page on my site and give the correct answers, you win.

Details/Clues

There is a page on my site with three names of NFL players. You won’t recognize these players at first unless you have a really good eye at brain teasers. Find the page, complete the task on the page and submit the answers on the form on the page and the first three 10 correct answers win won.

More Clues:

  • I think the best place to start looking is to “Go Home”
  • Once I’m home, I’d consider hitting the bar.
  • At this particular bar, you’ll have seven broad choices. I’d see what it’s all About.

Good luck!

Who Is Jaguars RB Jordan Todman?

Maurice Morris was a solid contributor. I think that's Jordan Todman's floor as an NFL prospect. Photo by Bernzilla.
Maurice Morris was a solid contributor. I think that’s Jordan Todman’s floor as an NFL prospect. Photo by Bernzilla.

The most impressive running back earning extended time in Jacksonville’s training camp has been journeyman Jordan Todman. A sixth-round pick of the San Diego Chargers in 2011, Todman entered the league as 5’8″, 203-lb. prospect from Connecticut. The Chargers cut him in October of that year and he signed with the Vikings in late December. The following year, the Vikings placed Todman on its practice squad after the preseason. The Jaguars signed Todman off the Vikings’ practice squad in late November of 2012.

Those are the basic facts about Todman’s path to Jacksonville. Many people will read a chronology like this and think there’s nothing to see here and they’ll move along. Lions running back Joique Bell took a similar path and he’s now out-playing Illinois star Mikel Leshoure in Detroit.  Can Todman be the future in Jacksonville if Maurice Jones-Drew’s legs fail him?

Todman was my No.15 runner in the 2011 Rookie Scouting Portfolio:

Todman flashes some good interior running skills. He can press a hole and bounce outside or inside to set up blocks as well as maximize gains in tight spaces with patient running. He has pretty good feet to slide away from traffic and find open lanes. He also has the burst to bounce runs outside or get through a seam at the line.

He does a good job of setting up blocks in the open field and he can use a stiff-arm or shoulder to run through defenders in the secondary when he can set them up with a move. He can also accelerate from his cuts to bounce into open space.

However, Todman has a disturbing tendency to go fast to the hole and then slow down at the entrance of the hole, which forces him to use his agility and power too early in the run to extricate himself from defenders just to get
minimal yardage. When he is consistently slow to the hole and fast through it, he looks like a potential NFL runner.

This lack of patience might also be a factor as to why he doesn’t push a pile effectively. If he had more of a running start into an open crease, he might have a stronger finish. Todman also needs to keep his head up when pass blocking. This technical error in pass protection will give defenders an instant advantage over him on every play.

Todman has enough speed and quickness to become a solid contributor, and perhaps a starter, but I don’t think he has enough special physical or conceptual qualities to develop into more than a productive change of pace back.

I also compared Todman to backs on a spectrum of styles that range from Thurman Thomas to Donald Brown to Maurice Morris. This comparison spectrum where I mention 2-3 players and place the prospect somewhere a long that continuum to show where his stylistic upside could go if the physical or conceptual skills improve and his stylistic downside if they don’t.

What you’ll see in this clip of Todman versus the Cincinnati Bearcats shows some of what I mentioned above:

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Mtxq8ttJMjc]

On runs to the perimeter, Todman shows good feet a nice move in space to eliminate a defender’s angle and the burst to get free. When he finishes a run, he often keeps his feet moving and his pads low enough to get extra yards. However, he was often too patient on interior runs where he needed to get the pads down and plow forward to get what the play would give him. The Connecticut system use more power plays in its offense and I think Todman’s patience, footwork, and lighter frame make him a better match for a zone scheme.

Denard Robinson has more speed and Jones-Drew has Pro Bowl skills, but Todman might be just good enough to make the roster and contribute in the backfield. His pass protection will be a pivotal part of the equation in determining if he has a future in North Florida.

Here’s a six-page player evaluation of Jordan Todman with play-by-play examples from the 2011 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

RSO Writers’ League Diary Preseason Week 3

RSO founder Matt Papson acquired Antonio Brown as a part of a rebuilding plan. Photo by bmward_2000.
RSO founder Matt Papson acquired Antonio Brown as a part of a rebuilding plan. Photo by bmward_2000.

Every month I’ll be writing something about the start-up keeper-contract-salary-auction league I’m running at Reality Sports Online. You can read more about RSO’s excellent league format here. And if you want to start a league with your friends or join a league as an individual, you can earn a 20 percent discount when you use the promo code RSP20%OFF. 

in case you missed it, I recruited some of my favorite competitors from the fantasy football industry to participate:

  1. Jeff Tefertiller – Footballguys
  2. Ryan McDowell – Dynasty League Football
  3. Sigmund Bloom – Footballguys
  4. Mike MacGregor – FFToday
  5. Bryan Fontaine – Pro Football Focus
  6. Tim Stafford – Dynasty League Football
  7. Matt Papson- Reality Sports Online
  8. Matt Waldman – Footballguys/RSP/Football Outsiders
  9. Jason Wood – Footballguys
  10. Mike Clay – Pro Football Focus/NBC
  11. Bob Harris and Mike Dempsey – Football Diehards/Sirius XM
  12. Rivers McCown – Football Outsiders
  13. Jim Day – Fantasy Taz
  14. Lance Zierlein – Sideline View

You can’t get much better when it comes to the combined fantasy football savvy of this crew. Since the draft ended in late May there have been 56 waiver wire transactions and 33 players traded to other in the past 93 days. That’s almost a player changing hands per day. RSO founder Matt Papson is behind 19 of these trades after he inherited a team after the draft with a huge cap surplus. Here’s who he’s traded and acquired during this time:

Dealt

  • 3rd Round Pick
  • Maurice Jones-Drew
  • Eddie Royal
  • Zach Ertz
  • Dennis Pitta
  • Plaxico Burress
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick
  • Robert Meachem
  • Knowshon Moreno
  • Mark Sanchez

These are players that were acquired in the auction by the former owner who had to leave early due to unforseen circumstances and he didn’t leave much of a draft list. The result was a team with a lot of D-level fantasy performers but a ton of cap room to use.

Naturally, the former Eagles employee Papson has Michael Vick as his starter in the Reality Sports Online Writer's League. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.
Naturally, the former Eagles employee Papson has Michael Vick as his starter in the Reality Sports Online Writer’s League. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.

 

Papson, a former cap expert with the Philadelphia Eagles, jumped at the opportunity to take over this team because he realized how much financial leeway he had to rebuild the team by giving cap relief to the rest of the league in return for more promising long-term options.  You’ll see what I mean with the acquisitions below:

  • Alex Smith
  • Vick Ballard
  • Antonio Brown
  • Jonathan Baldwin
  • Rashard Mendenhall
  • Chad Henne
  • Michael Crabtree
  • Darrius Heyward-Bey
  • Donald Brown
  • Aaron Hernandez

Because Papson had so much cap room, he could absorb salaries of less-inspired options like Hernandez, Henne,  Brown, and Baldwin, while acquiring strong starters like Antonio Brown and Crabtree and serviceable depth like Smith, Mendenhall, Ballard, and Heyward-Bey.

His team now looks a lot better than it did after the draft:

  • QBs (start 1): Michael Vick, Alex Smith, and Chad Henne
  • RBs (start 2): Rashard Mendenhall, Ryan Mathews, Jonathan Dwyer Christine Michael, Vick Ballard, Peyton Hillis, Delone Carter, Donald Brown, and James Starks
  • WRs (start 3-4): Antonio Brown, Kenny Britt,  Darrius Heyward-Bey, Aaron Mellette, Michael Crabtree, Jason Avant, Harry Douglas, Michael Jenkins, Chris Harper, Eric Rogers, and Jonathan Baldwin
  • TEs (start 1-2): Kyle Rudolph, Anthony Fasano, Delanie Walker, and Michael Hoomanawanui
  • DST: New England
  • PK: David Akers

The team doesn’t have a great outlook this year unless he has 2-3 strong surprises at running back  and at least one overachiever at receiver. However, Papson is in a much better position to turn this team into a much better squad in 2014 due to his cap room of $28 million.

TEAM 2013 2013 ROOM 2014 2015 2016
SALARY SALARY SALARY SALARY
Matt Waldman $120,343,604 $2,656,396 $77,840,327 $17,472,051 $5,180,000
Sigmund Bloom $114,401,854 $8,598,146 $76,924,424 $66,591,995 $22,960,000
Bob Harris $92,170,194 $30,829,806 $54,648,827 $17,112,459 $0
Tim Stafford $116,270,444 $6,729,556 $94,096,434 $62,852,424 $20,580,000
Bryan Fontaine $111,816,814 $11,183,186 $72,813,210 $30,729,608 $1,960,000
Matt Papson $94,988,621 $28,011,379 $64,724,175 $19,619,729 $0
Jim Day $122,217,721 $782,279 $84,071,728 $61,630,735 $17,780,000
Jeff Tefertiller $123,000,227 ($227) $119,408,970 $71,227,712 $16,800,000
Jason Wood $121,988,128 $1,011,872 $94,011,311 $48,419,492 $19,740,000
Rivers McCown $115,153,657 $7,846,343 $78,761,128 $61,638,599 $15,820,000
Mike MacGregor $111,856,984 $11,143,016 $88,618,392 $63,934,800 $27,160,000
Lance Zierlein $112,661,484 $10,338,516 $71,608,178 $50,644,871 $7,420,000
Ryan McDowell $106,429,757 $16,570,243 $73,579,640 $61,004,523 $28,980,000
Mike Clay $121,503,737 $1,496,263 $46,694,512 $14,700,286 $3,640,000

The cap room over the next three years is likely the most fascinating aspect of this league. Will owners like Papson and Bob Harris benefit from the space as injuries and disappointing performances teams throughout the league? Can they acquire the right players that this money will afford them? All great questions as we move forward.

My Team

I’ve had 10 waiver wire transactions since May and most are players I’ve been monitoring during camp. I’m hoping that some of them show enough long-term promise for me to tag at year’s end or they surprise this year:

  • Zach Sudfeld – until the Patriots tight end fumbled the ball with the one’s on Thursday night, he has been excellent. I still think he earns playing time and might surprise with starter production in fantasy leagues at least until Rob Gronkowski returns. He’s fine depth behind my starter Vernon Davis if Dwayne Allen doesn’t look good after rehabbing a foot injury.
  • C.J. Anderson – This sounds crazy, but if he didn’t get hurt he might have been this year’s Alfred Morris. A big back with a low center of gravity, Anderson looked more impressive breaking tackles and avoiding penetration than any back on the Broncos depth chart and was just earning second-team reps when he went down. I think the Broncos will keep him and give him a shot to work his way up the depth chart in the second half of the season. I was impressed with Anderson at Cal, but didn’t think he’d be drafted because he wasn’t the starter at Cal. For some additional perspective, neither was Willie Parker at UNC, Priest Holmes at Texas, William Andrews at Auburn (played FB for Joe Cribbs), or Terrell Davis at Georgia.
  • Russell Shephard – I don’t think he’ll do much this year, but I do think he flashed enough as a rookie with little experience at the position that he could develop at a fast rate and earn a bigger shot by next year. Former Rice quarterback Bert Emanuel wasn’t a bad receiver in Atlanta, perhaps Shephard can follow in those footsteps.
  • Spencer Ware – You know I love me some Spencer Ware. Talent often has a funny way of rising to prominence – especially physical players like Ware.
  • Shaun Draughn – I’m not impressed with Knile Davis at all thus far. While Draughn hasn’t played as well as he did last year, I’d be surprised if he’s not part of the backfield picture and a prominent part if Jamal Charles can’t finish the year.
  • Chad Spann – Not much has been said about Spann after his first week in Jets camp. It’s hard to tell if he’ll earn a role, but I really haven’t seen enough of him in preseason to make a call on him.
  • Austin Collie – A terrific receiver when healthy, but I don’t know about the fit in San Francisco and there’s enough rust that he might need a team willing to be patient with him and that’s about has common as purple grizzly bears.
  • Julius Thomas – He continues to look good and might force his way into the Broncos’ lineup with a quarterback who isn’t shy about targeting open players regardless of their draft round, contract, or level of stardom.

Although he may seem like a waiver wire gem, I actually acquired Kenbrell Thompkins in the start-up auction. It’s early, but so far he has proven to be one of my more astute moves now he’s close to earning a starting role in New England. Truth be told, this is the type of move that normally doesn’t work out for me, but I just might have picked the right long shot this year.

Here’s my depth chart heading into the regular season:

  • QBs (start 1): Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, and Sean Renfree
  • RBs (start 2): Steven Jackson, Arian Foster, Ben Tate, Ryan Williams, Shaun Draughn, Spencer Ware, Chad Spann, and C.J. Anderson
  • WRs (start 3-4): Calvin Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Cecil Shorts, Kenbrell Thompkins, Keenan Allen, Travis Benjamin, Marvin Jones, Marquess Wilson, Austin Collie, Russell Shephard, and Da’Rick Rogers
  • TEs (start 1-2): Vernon Davis, Dwayne Allen, Zach Sudfeld, and Luke Willson
  • DST: Seattle
  • PK: Sebastian Janikowski

Can’t say I love my team right now. Running back needs to stay healthy and I’m concerned about my lack of depth. I also have concerns about my kicker unless Terrelle Pryor can get into the lineup and at least scramble his way into field goal position enough times in games for respectable production. I think my receivers can carry me some weeks if my running backs can stay healthy and play like strong RB2s every week.

Until next month . . .

Ready to try a start-up keeper-contract-salary-auction league experience that’s easy to play and even easier to run? Go to Reality Sports Online and either start a league with your friends or join a league as an individual. You can earn a 20 percent discount when you use the promo code RSP20%OFF. 

 

Reads Listens Views 8/23/2013

A.J. Green was the best receiver I ever saw at Georgia, but Marlon Brown is no slouch despite operating in Green's shadow. Photo by Wade Rackley
A.J. Green was the best receiver I ever saw at Georgia, but Marlon Brown is no slouch despite operating in Green’s shadow. Photo by Wade Rackley

Dynasty Alert: Baltimore WR Marlon Brown

If you were on Twitter last night, I lucked into a bit of a Nostradamus act. I saw former Georgia wide receiver Marlon Brown take the field and make his first reception and I promptly told my followers he was a player to monitor. I shared my thoughts about his high talent level and about 30-40 minutes later Brown made an excellent catch between two defensive backs on an intermediate cross for a touchdown. I was just glad to see that Brown was actually healthy enough to play this year after tearing his ACL late in the 2012 season.

If you don’t know who Brown is, I’m sharing my summary from the 2013 RSP.  Brown was my No.26 receiver, largely due to the timing of his injury and my concerns about him earning an opportunity at all this year. In fact, the Houston Texans were the first to sign Brown after the draft as a free agent then promptly dropped Brown from its roster with haste.

However, the Ravens were just as quick to sign Brown. I have looked for word about Brown from time to time this summer, but couldn’t find anything on him until I watched him tonight. If you’re in a deep dynasty league and you’re seeking players to stash on that practice squad, I recommend a flyer on the former Bulldog.

Here’s a summary from April:

Marlon Brown, (6-4, 213)

Brown’s quickness and cutting ability combined with his size makes him a physically dangerous player. The fact that he can play from the slot or get deep on the perimeter makes him a nice talent to watch after he recovers from a November ACL tear.

Brown does a good job working from the slot to find openings in the zone coverage. He does a good job working back to his QB and attacks the ball hard on his way back to the passer. He also demonstrates skill to make plays in the middle of the field on the move or with his back to the passer.

He also shows some skill to catch the ball at the first available window with his hands away from his body. He adjusts his breaks to maximize that space and he does a strong job after the catch of making cuts and keeping his pads low to avoid contact.

I like his strength and quickness – he can use a stiff arm effectively, bounces off hits, and he fights to get extra yards after he’s wrapped. Brown also showed smarts in the two-minute drill when it comes to saving his offense time with his on field awareness.

Brown needs to do a better job of delivering a punch as a blocker. He could get more aggressive on a consistent basis in the run game. There are times he seems to be tentative about his angles to the opponent. I also didn’t see him attempt a cut block.

As a receiver, he has the typical issue of most athletic players: he drops passes when he looks down field and tries to run before securing the ball. I didn’t get to see Brown execute hard breaks, face press coverage, or use his hands to get free against an opponent. However Brown is a good athlete and based on what I’ve seen him do I think he has the potential to become a good player in each of these facets of receiving.

A former five-star recruit, Brown’s spent half of his career in the shadow of A.J. Green, but is loved by his team and the coaching staff believes he has the ability to have an NFL career. Highlights below:

[youtube=http://youtu.be/BZbBl_CV8rk]

Thank You

Brown, Kenbrell Thompkins, Spencer Ware, Joique Bell, and even C.J. Anderson are examples of players I love to write about because evaluating college talent is a passion of mine and that love of studying prospects ranges from the known quantities to the guys off the radar – especially the lesser-known players. There are cynical people out there who believe evaluators like me tout unknown guys because it makes us look good without the impact of looking as bad when they fail.

I tout players I believe are good and have potential to be even better with a chance to develop in the NFL. It’s hard to list a player higher than established prospects when you know best-case he’ll be drafted late or not drafted at all. I don’t continue to talk about Cedric Peerman – even has an inside joke with my readers – because I think I’m going to look like a rookie-evaluating genius if he hits after years on the roster bubble in Cincinnati.

I have strong beliefs about players that don’t change much until I see enough evidence that counteracts the months of methodical attention to detail I spend documenting what I see. Sometimes it’s good (Russell Wilson), other times I fall flat on my face (John Beck), but all the time I’m learning and sharing what I learn, hopefully for your benefit.

So thank you for giving me the opportunity to continue this football journey. When you follow this blog and buy the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, you’re supporting my football education that comes back to you two-fold.

If you’re new to the blog, Friday is when I post links to content from around the web. I also thank you for visiting and encourage you to do yourself a favor and buy the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. This is a pre-draft and post-draft publication devoted to the rookies at the skill positions. Here’s information to learn more:

If you just need the basic facts, here they are: It’s the most comprehensive work you’ll find of its kind. You get over 1300 pages of material that’s well-organized and in-depth for $19.95 (past issues from 2006-2012 are $9.95). And 10 percent of each sale is donated to the organization Darkness to Light to help them fight sexual abuse.  You can download the RSP here.

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Football Reads

Non-Football Reads

  • Sonny Rollins, the Colossus – If I have to make a sports analogy, imagine an athlete with Bo Jackson’s physical skills, Michael Jordan’s drive, Brett Favre’s improvisational prowess at its most inspired, and Peyton Manning’s obsessive preparation and you only begin to grasp what this Kennedy Honor’s Recipient is all about. Seeing him in person in 2009 was a highlight of a lifetime. This performance below is the microscopic residue of a crumb of Rollins’ on stage with the horn in his hand, but it will have to do:

[youtube=http://youtu.be/A3SF5iq7iDQ]

Views II – Even If This is Part of The Corporate Machine, Bill Murray Would Be Proud

The last three minutes are worth the first four, I promise – and I work at their rival school. Imagine Stripes Meets Revenge of The Nerds.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/7Bfr__WhGJg]

2013 Fantasy Soundtracks

Team Riddle selects Rob Gronkowski to lead off his draft. Photo by JDN.
Lamont Sanford to Sinead O’Connor? Keep reading… Photo by JDN.

Intro

Bloom and I not only grew up as the original members of the MTV Generation, but we were also the first audience of the summer movie blockbuster. From an early age it has been ingrained in us that music is a part of the story line of our lives. If you’re one of us who remembers things like Poison Arrow, Fish Heads, Headbanger’s Ball, and Martha’s Muffin, then you also remember making mixed tapes for your friends – especially girlfriends.

I was a musician in a previous life. In college I used to watch Raiders’ games with my roommate’s synthesizer at the edge of the couch so I could play sound effects of bombs dropping whenever James Jett went deep:

[youtube=http://youtu.be/y6EU_l06GwM]

Bloom lived a soundtrack as a Phishhead. Put the two of us together and it’s only a matter of time before we have to inject music into the football conversation. It only made sense that our 2013 season preview would be a soundtrack and mixed tape set to YouTube videos.

However, Einstein is the only video you’re going to see on this post due to account rights with YouTube that prevent us from embedding music here. Still, we’re providing links to each song and they will open in a separate window so you can have a soundtrack as you read our takes on players and their outlook for the year. This is us blowing off steam with two mixed tapes.

Album I, Side A: “It’s always Tease, Tease, Tease” [The Clash]

Should I stay or should I go now? . . . Should I stay or should I go now? . . . If I go there will be trouble . . . An if I stay it will be double . . . Come on and let me know . . . Should I cool it or should I blow?

Who better than the Clash to sum up the angst fantasy owners feel about so many players? They draw us in with talent so seductive and intoxicating that we stick around even after getting burned. Yet even as the logic of giving them another try wears thin, the promise of “what could be” is almost too great to resist – even when you know better.

It seems you always find yourself staring at their name on draft day and wishing you knew what to do. Bloom and I would love to intervene, but we’re too busy exorcising our own player-demons or giving it one more chance with the hope we’re not crying in our beer in December.

(Bloom) Track 1: QB Josh Freeman – My Minds Got a Mind Of Its Own  [phish]

Maybe it’s his mechanics. Maybe it’s that he was in a new system. Maybe it’s his unwillingness to rely on his legs as often as he did earlier in his career. Or, maybe Josh Freeman is just as baffled by his inconsistent play as we are. His mind prompts him to make throws that are incomprehensible. Last year, he looked like a QB1 until he cratered with eight interceptions in the all-important weeks 15 and 16. Think twice before you add Freeman this year.

(Waldman) Track 2: RB Maurice Jones-Drew –  We Had Joy, We had Fun . . .  [terry Jacks]

He was a huge reason I won my first experts’ league. Using a Studs and Duds strategy, winning Jones-Drew’s services for a mere $1 was the bargain of all bargains. Watching him duel with Chris Johnson a few years ago was one of the most fun showcases of two running backs in a game that I have ever seen. The Jaguars’ little teapot has been an RB1 for most of his seven-year career and a cornerstone for many fantasy champions. Despite averaging at least 4.7 yards per carry the past two seasons, the familiar tug to get on board the S.S. Jones-Drew is there but my feet won’t leave the dock – even at a bargain price as the 23rd pick/RB15.

But he has taken a pounding and without a proven quarterback to keep defenses from crowding the line of scrimmage and daring the Jaguars to throw, I’d rather be a year too early than a year too late. Terry Jacks says it best: “Good-bye my friend it’s hard to die when all the birds are singing in the sky . . . but the hills that we climbed were just seasons out of time.”

(Bloom) Track 3: RB Darren McFaddenWon’t Get Fooled Again [The who]

Keep your “contract year” and “zone blocking scheme was holding him back” arguments. Oakland’s offense looks like a dumpster-fire without left tackle Jared Veldheer for a good part of the season. Matt Flynn is a backup quarterback and Terrelle Pryor isn’t even a backup-quality passer. Even if McFadden had a spotless durability record, it would be tough to like him this year.

(Waldman) Track 4: RB Ryan MathewsCold Shot [Stevie Ray Vaughan]

Mathews isn’t just singing this song to fantasy owners; he’s belting the lyrics to a standing room only audience in his locker room. The Fresno State runner is a borderline rare talent. If you’ve truly seen Mathews at his best then you know what I mean: exploits small creases, makes adroit cuts that kill defenders’ angles, a third gear to outrun corners, and rare balance against hits from first-level defenders.  It’s one thing to lower the pads and truck a defender straight-on; it’s a completely different story when a defensive lineman with a good angle and plenty of steam gets his pads into the side of a running back’s thigh and slides off like butter on a hot skillet tilted sideways.

I saw Mathews do this enough times that I thought I was in this fantasy football relationship for the long haul. But the rare skills couched in boneheaded acts of immaturity has reached the point that I can’t make any more excuses. It doesn’t help that Danny Woodhead (DANNY WOODHEAD?!!!) is the player the Chargers are relying on as much as Mathews. It shows just how far this once-promising fantasy situation has gone down the tubes.

Mathews says his NFL career to this point as merely been “average” and while I like the attempt at honesty, the fact that he can’t bring himself to say his career has been below average to his first-round expectations tells me that he’s still in denial about not only what he has done, but he truly doesn’t realize how good he can be. If he doesn’t believe in himself, then how can I?

I still want to believe because I see glimpses every week he plays. But by game’s end, watching him is a cold shot.

(Bloom) Mathews Alternate take:  It Ain’t No Use [Stevie Wonder]

Mathews may be looking good in camp and the preseason, but it ain’t no use. I’m done – at least while he’s running behind maybe the worst offensive line in the league. The new regime doesn’t have the draft pick or emotional investment in Mathews and you shouldn’t, either. I’m not saying that Mathews won’t have some big plays and games, but he’ll also frustrate with injuries and lost games as the Chargers struggle.

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Eddie Lacy and Why I Prefer Talent Over Situation

I prefer evaluating talent to ranking players. There's a difference. Photo by Mike Pettigano.
Eddie Lacy is an example why I prefer evaluating talent to ranking players. There’s a difference. Photo by Mike Pettigano.

Eddie Lacy was my top back in the 2013 class before the NFL Draft. After the draft, I dropped him to fourth in behind Giovani Bernard, Le’Veon Bell, and Marcus Lattimore. Why? The three factors that we learned that caused NFL teams to drop him on their draft boards:

  1. Lacy was so out of shape in pre-draft workouts that he had to cut the workouts short.
  2. Concern about Lacy’s toe injury caused the Broncos and Steelers pick another option despite their need for a lead back.
  3. Concern that Lacy’s personality – which isn’t all-football, all the time – meant he didn’t have the emotional makeup of a good football player.

When I downgraded Lacy in my post-draft publication, I only knew about the first two concerns. If I knew about the third one I would have ignored it because it’s ridiculous. More on that one later.

As a football talent evaluator, I dislike post-draft rankings. I understand their value, but I’m a talent purist at heart. I prefer to examine what a player can do; what he can’t; and project what he might be able to learn. Character, situation, and injury are factors that more often than not require an investigator, a coach, and a doctor to discuss with any level of expertise and even then there’s a lot of speculation.

Unless I was with a team and creating a real draft board, I have little use for the non-football stuff. It’s water-cooler talk.

Headlining the virtual break room was infamous camp photo of Lacy where he looked more like B.J. Raji wearing a running back jersey number and wig as a prank. I thought we were going to need to add a photography expert to the mix of the collective medical and psychological speculation about things that have little to do with his on-field performance.

As a fan and a fantasy owner, it was five minutes of compelling information to consider. I was sucked in. As an author of a publication that evaluates talent from a long-term standpoint, I was glad it went away as fast as it arrived.

These non-football factors are also why the idea of people ranking talent analysts is problematic at best. Does one judge a talent evaluator by his ranking of the player or by the commentary? I think the substance of the analysis is far more important than the number. If you think I’m a good or bad evaluator because of the accuracy of rankings that have more more dynamics than annual re-draft rankings in fantasy football, then you’re missing value of what those in the profession of football evaluation provide to readers.

Lacy is one of many examples why I think the pre-draft RSP remains as valuable as the post-draft publication. The pre-draft publication is about talent. The post-draft incorporates fit and to a lesser extent draft stock. Like it or not, a player’s draft grade often dictates his initial opportunity.

And because the NFL is a hyper-competitive environment with high turnover due to age and injury, it’s understandable why most media and fans have a “what have you done for me lately” philosophy embedded within their takes on player potential. Even if it’s often the wrong perspective to have.

The concern about Lacy’s toe injury was based on surgery prior to his 2012 season. From what I saw, it didn’t stop Lacy from tearing holes through college defenses. True, it’s a possibility that Lacy hurts the toe again and is never the same player and he may have a shorter career span than Montee Ball, but if the speculation is that Lacy only plays three years to Ball’s five I’d prefer the better player over a shorter period of time.

Even if that player burns out his body sooner, management is making that player’s position a stronger priority in the off-season.

The issue that troubles me most about these takes that emerged after the draft about Lacy. The idea that teams passed on Lacy because running back doesn’t love football and teams were concerned about his work ethic or mental toughness. I’d be shocked if even 10 percent of the true decision makers involved with passing on Lacy have ever experienced a remote amount of hardship that he has.

Try losing everything you own after a hurricane strikes your town. Do you think you’d struggle with the trauma of starting over? Moving to a new city with nothing? Living with people you didn’t know in conditions that are far from luxury? If you think eight years is a long time to still be dealing with it all then odds are likely you need to get back to me 10-15 years after you can walk into a bar and order a drink. Then we can having a meaningful conversation.

Football wouldn’t be the first thing on my mind. Nor would it make me happy in light of these events. An outlet for my frustration and anger? Oh yeah. Happiness? You’ve got to be kidding me.

Some people say you have to love football with a passion to perform at the highest level. I agree it’s the easiest way to tell that a person is going to do the hard work to succeed. It’s just not the only way. If you want to live by the probabilities of templates, formulas, and prototypes then you’ll be right more often than you’re wrong. But you’ll also miss a lot of exceptional cases that make a true difference in shaping how we look at the world.

As a talent purist, Lacy’s skill excites me, but I dreaded having to use non-football events to rank him.  Fast forward to Lacy’s performance this weekend and many of these concerns were sliding off him like Rams defenders. He looked like Marion Motley with a spin move. Whether or not he has a successful career, I’m happy that in a few weeks most of the speculation about Lacy (and many other prospects) will reach the beginning of the end on the field of play.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

RSP Flashback: Cardinals WR Andre Roberts

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Roberts will also benefit from Bruce Arians moving Larry Fitzgerald around. See why he should be a worthwhile patience play for the Cardinals.

The 2010 rookie class of wide receivers was a minefield for draft analysts. The strength of the class lay in its collective athleticism. For every Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas who have developed into play-makers there are the likes of Arrelious Benn, Carlton Mitchell, David Gettis, and Marcus Easley – eye-catching athletes who have struggled to integrate the skills of the position into their game.  Or in Danario Alexander’s case, stay healthy.

Yet there was a contingent of receivers who had average physical dimensions for the professional game, but their skills as receivers were the most promising aspect of their collective resumes. While there’s a school of thought that you can’t teach athleticism, I’m beginning to think that truism is relied upon too much. The downside of this is these players get drafted early, they need more development than they are often capable of absorbing at this level, and teams are more patient with them to “have the light come on.”

After a decade of study, I think teams need to spend more time looking at players who already know how to turn on the switch. I call this behavior a display of Integrated Skill Sets.
And I believe there should be a more qualitative effort to study them:

  • What are they for the position?
  • What’s difficult to learn about the position at the pro level?
  • Does the player know how to incorporate his athleticism into position’s technical demands?
  • Does the process what’s happening around him well enough to optimize his athleticism and skill?
  • What behaviors can help us more  project a player’s ability to integrate the demands of the pro game?

The players in this 2010 class who demonstrated the strongest display of Integrated Skill Sets that I didn’t mention were Golden Tate, Eric Decker, Emmanuel Sanders, Riley Cooper, Blair White, and Andre Roberts.  While White had a short-lived career, he’s an important player to mention because I think the one thing that the Colts player-personnel department did a fine job of identifying was players with Integrated Skill Sets.

I don’t know if they have anything defined as such when watching players, but even their misses were players who demonstrated a good feel for the game. White wasn’t inordinately big or fast, but he knew how to get open, read the field and opponents well, and he could make plays that required a combination of technique, spatial awareness in tight quarters, and physical toughness.  If you recall White’s first touchdown was the result of jogging to the Colts huddle and telling Manning what he saw the corner cheating on previous plays.

Ironically, many football people believe that you can’t teach athleticism, but I’m beginning to wonder if you can teach smarts, precision, and awareness in football players if they don’t have it by the time they reach the NFL. At the day gig, I’m doing a story on one of the oldest and most prestigious specialty academic graduate programs of its kind that teaches a specific set of skills that has so much value to the corporate world, I’ve had numerous MBA graduates tell me that if they knew this program existed they would have pursued it instead.

The reason is that employers are practically waiting in line to hire these graduates. But ask these employers what they want to see more with this training and it’s the graduate’s ability to integrate all of the skills they’ve learned and make decisions that change the business for the better. They want the school to teach things that can’t be taught (inspired and reinforced, maybe): intelligence, curiosity, and experience.

The NFL’s job market has its parallels. It takes a certain type of talent to be a good receiver for Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, or Matt Ryan. Elite physical skills can get you onto the field, but look at the players who most consistently move the chains in tough situations and the guys they’re leaning on display intelligence, curiosity, and awareness in their game. Say what you will about Randy Moss’ effort or personality, but Bill Belichick called him the smartest receiver he’s coached.

Andre Roberts is no Randy Moss when it comes to his athletic gifts, but he was my fifth-ranked receiver in 2010 and one of my favorites in this class. The 5’11”, 195-pound Roberts was on my short list of receivers most likely candidate to make an immediate impact. However, Roberts had so many uncharacteristic drops in camp that his rookie year was unfruitful.

This slow start only reinforces my view that NFL teams would be served well to look at integrated skill sets, because by the end of his second season Roberts’ quarterbacks and coaching staff believed he demonstrated enough to develop into a star in the slot. The hope is that the acquisition of Michael Floyd would eventually allow the Cardinals to use Roberts as a receiver who they can move around to take advantage of his skills.

The 2013 camp story line may be about coach Bruce Arians moving Fitzgerald around like Reggie Wayne, but think of Roberts as Arians’ new T.Y Hilton. Remember, if you move one receiver, you’re likely moving another. Hilton also benefited from getting moved around the formation. Roberts isn’t as fast as Hilton, but I compared him favorably to Greg Jennings.

Roberts is a small-school prospect with big-time game. He has great body control to make catches of errant throws, runs routes anywhere on the field, and has strong skills after the catch. He’s a versatile player and had one of the best punt returns I have seen in a couple of years. He can weave through traffic, set up blocks, and make strong cuts. What I really like his skill to defeat the jam on a consistent basis. I have seen projections from others that believe Roberts will be a slot receiver. I agree with those that say he will start his career there, but I would like to point out that Greg Jennings has nearly identical dimensions as Roberts. I think Roberts might be a better player than Jennings was at this stage of their careers. If Roberts joins a team with a veteran quarterback, he’ll be a candidate to make an immediate impact in 2010.

Roberts has lacked an established veteran for most of his career, but he continues to flash skills that I think a quarterback of Carson Palmer has the ability to fully exploit this year. Here is my 2010 report on Andre Roberts. While the jury is still out on him becoming consistent, productive starter, I think he’s a lot closer than many of his more athletically-inclined classmates and the reason is his flash of integrated skill sets.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

The Gut Check No. 274 – Upside Down From The 12-Spot

Clayton Gray is 23-3 when he hasn't drafted a RB before round 5. Helllooo Demayrius. Photo by Jeffery Beall.
Clayton Gray is 23-3 when he hasn’t drafted a RB before round 5. Helllooo Demaryius. Photo by Jeffery Beall.

Are you Down With . . .

The other night, Footballguys’ Manager Clayton Gray emailed me his satirical paean to Naughty By Nature and the Upside Down Strategy with a link to the team he drafted in the 2013 Huddle Experts’ League.

Gray, who won the league in 2012, told me he is 23-3 the past two years and hasn’t drafted a running back before the fifth round.

Early round running backs are like pacifiers to some fantasy owners. But the illusion of playing it safe rarely creates exceptional results. There’s only one winner in fantasy football, and I know owners – whether they know it or not – who draft like their primary goal is to make the playoffs. In fact, I’d argue most of us do.

The primary motivation is to build a team good enough to earn a playoff spot. Then as the playoffs get closer, focus on refining that roster to contend for a championship. I think the underlying thought is to make the playoffs so you don’t look like a bad fantasy football player.

And that’s playing it safe.

Football fans who play fantasy football absorb the same mentality that NFL teams have: you’re great if you win a championship; you’re very good if you go to the championship; you’re good if you make the playoffs; and you’re not good if you miss the playoffs.

It doesn’t help that most fantasy leagues award money for making the playoffs or scoring the most points. This is an incentive to be good, but not great; play it safe, but don’t go for greatness; and win, but only if you don’t have to risk losing big.

It’s not a popular line of thought, but there’s truth in those words.

In a year where the pervading thought is to take running backs early, acquire a stud tight end, and wait on quarterbacks and wide receivers, the radical approach is to acquire the best non-runners for your starting lineup and use the middle and late rounds to acquire a block of runners for your roster. The fundamental reason for this approach’s efficacy is the short career span, high rate of injury, and fairly high turnover within the top-12 and top-24 rankings of running backs from one year to the next. I call this the Upside Down Draft Strategy. You can find details here.

Most of you already get the gist of this strategy. You’re here to find out which middle and late-round runners I’m touting for your drafts this month. I’m writing three articles to profile these backs within the context of walking you through multiple Upside Down Draft plans – the first one at the early turn (1st overall pick); the second with a middle pick (6th spot); and the final strategy at the turn (12th spot) – so you can see how it all fits together.

I think this strategy is best-suited for the following league formats:

  • PPR leagues with lineups of 1QB/2RBs/3WR/1TE.
  • PPR leagues with lineups as above, but with a flex at RB, WR, or TE.
  • Premium PPR leagues with 1.5 points for TE and a flex at RB, WR, or TE.
  • Non-PPR leagues with 1QB/2RB/4WR/1TE and a flex at RB, WR, or TE.

Gray’s team has Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, and Julio Jones and got these three receivers drafting from the 1.02 spot. Today we’re looking at options from the opposite turn.

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