Date Archives October 2013

“The Degradation of a Young Stud – Part I” Starring Robert Griffin

There are a ton of questions, but no easy answers for the Washington offense.
There are a ton of questions, but no easy answers for the Washington offense.

Sounds like an adult film, right? It is and it isn’t. What I witnessed from Washington’s passing offense against Denver this weekend was so nasty it will compel viewers take a long shower afterwards.  Equally disturbing is that this film possesses a lot of elements of an exploitation flick. I had a difficult time watching an innocent, young talent treated this way. Worst of all, it’s difficult to assess blame and there in lurks the elements of psychological horror that chills the blood.

What we’re witnessing with Robert Griffin is the side of the double-edged sword that can cut the wielder. Last year, Washington took the risk and went all-in with an offensive philosophy that leaned heavily on one exceptional skill set of a single player. This year, Robert Griffin – that individual who could diminish the collective weaknesses of his teammates – can’t do what he used to and his impairment is exploiting the weaknesses of this unit.

The knee injury offers the easiest answer to what’s ailing Griffin and Washington. However, there are more questions that I couldn’t shake when I watch the Denver game. Will Griffin ever regain his 2012 explosiveness? If he does, is this the best thing for his long-term development as an NFL quarterback? Is Washington’s offense stunting Griffin’s development in order to exploit his athleticism? Or, is this what happens when a team takes an aggressive approach to molding the scheme around its talent and that talent disappears? The horror is that there’s really no one to blame and feel satisfied.

Do you blame Griffin for getting hurt? Perhaps you blame Shanahan and Dr. James Andrews for not looking out for their rookie and the future of their team in a playoff game, but considering the culture of the players, the league, the fans, the media, and the coaches, it would be unrealistic and hypocritical.

Do you blame the Shanahans for developing an offense predicated on Griffin’s game-changing speed that has degraded from the genius of simplicity to just plain simplistic thanks to one anterior cruciate ligament? So we’ll laud Washington for maximizing what one player could do for the benefit of the organization last year, then criticize him for not knowing when or if that one player will return to the physical form required to make that offense take flight? Learn the second half of the phrase that starts Go big or . . .

Do you blame a weak offensive line that looked a lot better last year because one false move by a defense could lead to a 60-yard touchdown, putting the rest of the league on amber alert to every movement Griffin made between the snap of the ball and the official’s whistle? Do you blame Pierre Garcon for getting hurt and Washington’s patience with him and Griffin returning to form? Not me. Why would Washington try to revamp a team when it expects its quarterback to return to form at some point? There has to be some level of patience this year to determine if it will happen or if they’ll have to adjust.

I have no solutions to the questions that this performance raises, only sympathy.

The Knee Isn’t Firing on All Cylinders

My analysis begins with something I learned from Thursday night’s Carolina blowout of the Tampa Buccaneers, and it wasn’t on the field; it was an interview the analysts had with Darrelle Revis about his recovery from an ACL tear.

Revis consulted numerous players who had undergone the grueling rehab and returned the field. Most of them said that it was a bumpy ride where the knee would have moments where it would respond as old, but most of the athleticism wasn’t firing on all cylinders. They told Revis to remain patient and work through it. One day, the knee will respond, everything will fall into place, and he’ll feel back to normal.

When I’ve watched Griffin this season, I’ve seen him experiencing these ups and downs with his knee. This read option play against the Broncos illustrates that the initial quickness is back, but explosiveness required to make second and third moves back-to-back-to-back are not.

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This is your garden-variety zone read play. You have your linemen engaging in a pair of double teams where one of the players in each double team is supposed to work his way to a linebacker, the receivers run off their coverage, and the H-Back serves as Griffin’s lead blocker if the quarterback keeps the ball.

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The play begins as designed. As you can see Denver’s defense is patient. The linebackers and safeties are remaining disciplined to the possibility of Griffin keeping this exchange and the defensive end is maintaining his gap responsibility rather than crashing down the line of scrimmage to attack the running back. This is something Griffin and the Washington offense is seeing more often and it is a contributing factor to the drop in the quarterback’s yards per carry average. If you ask me, it’s not the biggest reason; it’s the knee.

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However on this play, the lead blocking could be a lot better. The H-Back doesn’t address the defensive end at all. Perhaps he’s taking an outside angle and expecting Griffin to do the same. Even so, the end is too quick and Griffin is too slow to bounce this outside with the angle the H-Back provides to the end without any resistance. Also note the safety at the left hash watching the play unfold. This is good depth. He’s still accounting for a potential crossing route from right to left so he’s above the receiver, but he’s well enough outside to stop Griffin if the quarterback breaks through the first level to the left flat.

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The H-Back works past the end towards the safety, leaving Griffin to beat the defensive end. If the H-Back even gave so much as a shove on the end, perhaps Griffin could have taken the ball outside and still show the speed to get separation. I think the H-Back should have helped here. Even so, based on what I’ve seen thus far I don’t think Griffin wins this foot race to the edge and if he does, the explosion to turn the corner isn’t there. Griffin opts to use his good leg to avoid the defender. He plants this healthy knee into the ground, and spins inside the end to avoid the tackle.

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As Griffin spins past the end, the H-Back has a good angle on the safety and it appears the running back is in position to work outside the left tackle Trent Williams to address the linebacker working outside Williams’ position. Once Griffin gets reoriented down hill, there’s enough space in the left flat for a positive gain.

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At this point, the blocks should be setting up so Griffin will only have one unblocked man to beat and if it doesn’t happen, he should still pick up enough help from his teammates for a gain of 4-5 yards. The problem is the H-Back, who overruns his angle to the safety.

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To compound matters, the H-Back isn’t fast enough to recover as Griffin attempts to bounce this run to the edge. Last year, Griffin had the explosion to drive off that braced knee and get outside No.82 if that H-Back actually gauged the correct angle to seal the safety inside. This year, no chance; there isn’t enough explosiveness to gloss over a poor angle from a teammate.

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Play over.

At this point, Griffin is about explosive as Aaron Rodgers. The Packers quarterback is a fine athlete capable of getting outside the pocket when flushed and he’ll gash a defense as a runner, but the Packers don’t design running plays as heavy part of its play-calling rotation. Understandably, Washington built its 2012 playoff team on the legs of Griffin. It’s also understandable why they didn’t change the offense after Griffin’s injury, hoping that the young quarterback would regain his explosion at some point during the season and the team could ride out the rough spots. It may still happen, but long-term is this what’s best for the team?

To be fair, if Washington did change the offense I have doubts the rest of the surrounding talent is capable of sustaining a high level of production for a pocket passer to thrive with the game’s current offensive concepts.

In its current incarnation, Kurt Cousins can’t run this offense close to the way a healthy Griffin can because he doesn’t break good defensive schemes with pure foot speed. Washington would have to change by necessity. However, the staff is clearly still holding out hope for old Griffin to return to form. This is the danger of designing an offense that leans so hard on one specific skill set of an individual player – especially a young passer who is still learning how to maximize his potential from the pocket.

As you will see below, this Washington offense – and really most offenses – is a delicately balanced series of processes that can go south fast when an integral part breaks. If you look closely at Atlanta’s scheme you’ll discover that the root cause of several ailments for the Falcons offense is Roddy White’s injury. He’s the one-on-one player that runs every style of route and possesses the timing with Matt Ryan to force opponents to single cover one of White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez on every play. He’s the player who makes teams pay in the intermediate range for biting on run fakes. And he’s the receiver who automatically draws the best cover corner even with a healthy Jones around.

When White started the season gimpy, the Falcons could still hit big plays to Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez but there wasn’t enough consistent production down-to-down and that prevented the team from building momentum with play-calling and maintaining an advantage. Washington’s pivotal player is Griffin because of the offense’s reliance on the zone read and all the play action, max protection, and simple route concepts that they were able to build off it due to a defense’s fear of Griffin’s speed.

Now Griffin doesn’t have that same caliber of speed and the team is in limbo, running plays that don’t match Griffin’s current skill or his intellectual-football potential as a passer.

Max Protection-Minimum Results

Here’s a play that would have worked just fine last year with a healthy Griffin, but defenses aren’t buying because they know the quarterback isn’t capable of selling it. Two games from now if the explosion returns, sure. But what if it’s four games, eight games, or never? Right now the play below is obsolete.

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This is a diamond formation with two receivers at slot width from the line of scrimmage. These are the only two receivers running routes on this play against a Broncos defense that will drop six into coverage. Already, this doesn’t sound promising.

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Griffin begins his drop and his three backs set a perimeter to assist the offensive line. If I didn’t know better, it would appear the coaches are so worried about Griffin’s knee that they’re adding a second layer of protection behind the offensive line to insure the quarterback earns a clean pocket to throw the deep ball without a hit to his legs. I think the coaches are worried more about the offensive line’s difficulty protecting Griffin while he guts through an ACL rehab in record time.

If Washington is going to max protect, shouldn’t they be expecting a heavy pass rush? Is Griffin not reading the safeties’ position or is he not allowed t0 change the play to something better? This is an ugly play that makes Griffin look like he’s a first-year player lacking the intellectual sophistication to handle a pro offense. Again, I don’t think this is true nor is it the intent of the coaching staff. However this isn’t the only max protect-simplistic route play in this game. It’s just a disturbing blow-back of creating a simple offense predicated more on elite athleticism and less on spreading the field to manipulate an offense.

It may appear degrading to a player like Robert Griffin, a prospect known for his intellect, but name a young, technically proficient, healthy receiver in Washington’s lineup and you’ll come up empty. Garcon is the closest thing to player to fit this description, but his wheels aren’t back, either. If anything, Griffin’s injury is revealing just how valuable one player’s game-changing ability can be.

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Last year Griffin’s wheels were an element that forced defenses to overreact to even the simplest measures for fear of getting burned, which allowed a two-receiver passing game to work. This year, the wheels lack tread to corner to the open field that’s available above. The Broncos edge defenders and linebackers are confident that if it maintains its position, Griffin is no longer fast enough to win big as a ball carrier. Let him try to squeeze a deep ball into double coverage.

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As you can see, both receivers have two defenders on them as Griffin targets the deepest zone.

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At least Griffin errs long so there’s no danger of a turnover.

Another unintended consequence of Washington not changing its system and waiting for Griffin to recover his big-play ability is that the quarterback’s legs can’t hide as many of the offensive line’s weaknesses in pass protection.

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This is another 30 personnel pistol set with two receivers split at slot width on either side of the formation. Denver has seen this look enough times in the game that by the fourth quarter, they’re using one deep safety and placing 10 defenders within the short and intermediate zones to handle it.

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Griffin executes play action with the back as hit two receivers work down field against a secondary dropping into coverage. The linebackers stay in position to address any routes in shallow zone, but read to green dog if this once again is a max protect scheme. The only wrinkle to his play is Joshua Morgan, No.15, reversing field and working to the right flat as a dump-off. However, this is a slow-developing route and it requires the Washington offensive line to provide Griffin the time to check down.

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Griffin finishes his drop, looking down field where the intermediate and deep zone contains two receivers matched against four defenders. Meanwhile, H-Back Logan Paulsen is assigned to an edge defender.  With a healthy Griffin, it’s a risky but understandable to commit Paulsen to the edge with a running back to chip, but with this version of Griffin who cannot make the pass rush pay with his legs? Uh-uh.

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Fortunately Griffin still has enough athleticism to avert disaster, using a straight-arm to slide past the edge rush. Even so, we know he’s not going to run. Denver knows this too. They have three defenders at the second level waiting for Griffin to break the pocket.

What else do they have to do? There are only two receivers on this play! If they green dog, there’s a chance they open a lane to allow Griffin behind them. It’s safer to stand there with their thumbs up their hind parts, keep the quarterback in front of them, and wait for him to indicate pass and send the closes linebacker towards the pocket after that.

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Griffin resets his feet and this is the cue for one of the linebackers to green dog. Niles Paul is open in the right flat and he will have a one-on-one match up with a linebacker by the time he makes the catch. However, he needs Griffin to look Paul’s way to make the check-down. Instead, Griffin is pressing – bombs away.

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In this case the receiver gets behind the secondary.

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Griffin overshot the ball once again. Disrupt a quarterback from his spot in the pocket and he loses accuracy.

Make The Offense Squirm

Earlier in the game, Denver sent pressure at this max protect scheme – a double-corner blitz – and the Broncos linebackers were disciplined and waited for Griffin to attempt to break the pocket. I think teams see that containing Griffin in the pocket, eliminate easy runs for even a now-moderately athletic runner, and force him to pick a secondary apart with his arm and limited choices is the way to go.

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This discipline is even more evident with blitz variation where both corners pressure the pocket, but the corner on the side where the quarterback keeper would go temporarily pauses his blitz until the quarterback finishes the read option phase of the exchange.

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Once again, only two Washington receivers release on pass routes. Meanwhile, the defensive tackle also drops. However the depth of this drop indicates to me it’s intent is to keep the pocket intact and force Griffin to throw the ball than to cover a receiver.

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The corner off the left side pauses his rush long enough to ensure that Griffin is dropping to pass and not opting to run. His teammates in the middle have nothing to do but play security guard patrol for a quarterback breaking the pocket as a runner.

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Now that Griffin shows he’s truly dropping to pass, the cornerback resumes his blitz. Griffin is poised to do the right thing conceptually, which is to throw into the blitz and his receiver is open.

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Griffin releases the ball with room to spare, but his pass is high.

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The receiver – I believe it’s Garcon – attempts a one-handed grab . . .

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And makes the play. After this completion, Denver opted not to blitz, force the receivers to face double coverage, watch Griffin and the offensive line squirm. Even when Washington sent more than two receivers down field, Denver decided they’d make Griffin and his receivers prove they could win by throwing the football on a set play.

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No max-protection on this play, but it’s still a conservative passing attack with the field compressed more than what we often seen with NFL offenses.

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As Griffin executes the read option fake, the Broncos linebackers remain patient, as does the defensive end on that read side. Also note the Broncos safety No.45. He’s spying Griffin the entire play.

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As Griffin drops, the edge rusher works around the tight end, a mismatch for the defense that last year’s version of Griffin arguably uses his legs to make the Broncos pay. However, there’s still the safety spy – an added layer of protection for the defense that perhaps a healthy Griffin would not avoid.

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Griffin climbs the pocket, doesn’t see an open receiver among the three running routes against six defenders in coverage – yep, still a 2-to-1 defensive advantage in DBs to WRs – and then is forced to slide to his left. Meanwhile, look No.99 near the left hash where Griffin is about to slide. Do you notice who is assigned to block this defensive linemen?

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That’s Alfred Morris. A tight end on a player like Shaun Phillips or Von Miller? A running back on a defensive tackle? Two offensive linemen on the right side blocking air and grass? Not a good look on this play.

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Griffin may not have the same explosiveness, but he’s still quick enough to slide from the edge rusher and then dip outside the defensive end. Not fast enough to slalom these big defenders without getting touched, but that’s part of the recovery process, if not the great athleticism of defensive linemen in today’s NFL.

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Griffin just escapes a sack as he’s flushed to his left and this is where the spy comes into play.

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This is where the play could still go alright if Griffin opts to run and make the most of this one-on-one match up with the safety. However, what he does next is a cardinal sin of quarterbacking and potentially an indication that his walk doesn’t match his talk about his confidence level in his knee.

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Griffin pulls up and attempts a throw across the field with a defender bearing down. Yes, this sometimes works but when it does there’s a level of anticipation to place the ball at a spot where the receiver is the only one with a chance to work towards the ball. In this case, Griffin delivers the ball to the receiver in a static spot that forces that receiver to wait on the ball – a dangerous play because now the receiver must stand still and time a leap while the defender as the advantage of attacking the pass.

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Also note the spin of the ball. There were a few throws where the ball came out funky because Griffin pressed too much to make a big play due to a scheme that emphasizes the speed that hasn’t returned to him yet and sends minimal receivers into maximum coverage.

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The safety jumps the target, tips the ball, and ends the play. Washington is fortunate this play didn’t result in a turnover.

What’s happening with Washington’s offense is to be expected when its scheme’s lynchpin is a rare athlete and that athlete has lost that edge. Based on past history, it should return, but I’m not counting on it this year.  This raises a broader set of questions: What will Washington do in the offseason?

Will they begin transitioning Griffin’s development to that of a pocket passer? Griffin was my No.2 quarterback in draft class that at the top was among the 3-4 best crops of rookie passers since 1983. Griffin’s intelligence, toughness, fundamental feel for the pocket, and deep accuracy (when not forced to throw into double coverage) are all reasons why I’ve always thought he could develop into a pocket passer with the mobility/accuracy that approached that of Steve Young and Aaron Rodgers. However, Washington has to upgrade its receiving corps and offensive line.

Will Washington keep its current system and wait for Griffin to regain his elite athleticism? If Washington remains patient and Griffin does return to form, they’ll have the luxury of adding talent but not forced to overhaul its offensive system and continue to rely on Griffin’s legs to put defenses on edge. But what if the Broncos’ method of defending Griffin works even when the quarterback’s explosiveness returns? Will Griffin and the coaching staff make the steps necessary to develop more advanced methods of execution for the passing game?  They have the collective smarts and potential, but they need the talent.

I have a lot more to write about this game in Part II of this post, including the punishment Griffin is taking – something he’s always done as a player. But I’ll end this post with this final question: Knowing what we do about Griffin’s toughness and desire to play and the Washington organization making a questionable call about his leg in the playoffs last year, would it have been wiser to shut Griffin for the first 10-12 games of this season?

I don’t have an answer.

See Part II – Watching Grass Grow and Reasons For Hope

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

NFL Closeup: LB Derrick Johnson Taking on a Lead Block

Watch Derrick Johnson demonstrate great athleticism in tight space. Photo by G.R. Allen.
Watch Derrick Johnson demonstrate great athleticism in tight space. Photo by G.R. Allen.

I’ve been a fan of Derrick Johnson since he was a destructive force for the Texas Longhorns. Watching the Chiefs beat the Browns this weekend, Johnson reminded me why I love watching good linebacker play. Among them is the act of taking on a lead block and dropping the ball carrier.

Here’s a variation of a trap play on 1st and 10 with 10:19 in the half with Cleveland on its five yard line. The play begins with the right tackle and right guard slanting to seal the line inside and block its way to the middle linebacker. The left guard pulls to seal the outside defender and the tight end on the wing – Jordan Cameron – is the lead blocker assigned to clear Derrick Johnson from the hole.

Good luck.

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Johnson leans to the inside as he’s reading the line of scrimmage, spotting the pulling action of the guard and the tight end behind him. The right side of the Cleveland line does a good job of sealing the inside of the Kansas City front and you can see the right tackle working downhill towards the middle linebacker. If the Browns can block Johnson and the outside linebacker Justin Houston on the edge, this play will yield a nice gain.

As you can see below, the pulling guard takes a strong angle to Houston and keeps the outside linebacker wide of the running lane. The right tackle reaches the middle linebacker at the second level and the interior lineman are all sealed inside as the Brown’ runner follows Cameron into the hole.

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Johnson slides to the hole with his pads square to the running back. Note to the fullback coming from the right side near the “1st & 10” graphic of the television broadcast. Johnson has a small margin of error on this play. If he begins with an angle too far outside, he could get double-teamed by the tight end and fullback and the runner earns a lane inside those blocks. If the right tackle can sustain his block for another second, the back is off to the races. If Johnson is too far inside, the tight end can try to pin the linebacker into the line of scrimmage to create an even larger running lane.

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This is my favorite part of the play. Johnson takes an outside angle and essentially dips into a three-point stance to slip under Cameron’s block. The conceptual thinking for Johnson here is that if he forces the runner inside, there’s a greater chance that one of his teammates will come free and make the play on the runner if he doesn’t. The physical technique to go from an upright position and almost leaning backwards to this three-point stance in less than a second is the beauty of top-notch defensive athleticism. It’s also a great understanding of angles.

On the other hand, the runner takes a long step towards Johnson when sees the linebacker shooting for him. This is an attempt to put on the breaks and change direction, but the long step prevents him from maintaining his footing. It’s hard to say whether shorter steps to the hole could have altered the outcome of this play. However, I do wonder about the runner’s approach. Based on the angle of his pads and hips, he appears as if he’s still uncertain which direction to take.

What I wish I knew for certain is the fullback’s assignment. It seemed like the fullback had a great opportunity to double-team Johnson. At the same time, it appears the fullback also has an eye on assisting the right tackle on the middle linebacker. If Cameron can take care of Johnson, then it’s the fullback’s help on the middle linebacker that will open this whole beyond the second level of the defense. Forced to guess, I’ll say that the expectation was for Cameron to beat Johnson one-on-one, which proves to be a tough assignment for a young tight end who has earned his place in the starting lineup for his pass receiving more than his run blocking.

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Johnson shoots past the runner’s legs the same way Bruce Lee used to emphasize punching past the target point to ensure there’s power behind that blow. Also note that Johnson’s hit is at knee-level. Even a runner with tremendous feet will have difficulty avoiding Johnson’s angle.

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Johnson gets under Cameron and shoots through the runner’s legs, upending the ball carrier. The back manages to fall forward to the line of scrimmage, but Johnson foils a play that if he handles wrong should have been at least a four-yard gain and at best a run of 30-40 yards.

For more analysis of offensive skill players download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: UNC TE Eric Ebron

UNC TE Eric Ebron fits in a comparison spectrum with Vernon Davis as the pinnacle.  Photo by The Bay Area Bias.
UNC TE Eric Ebron fits in a comparison spectrum with Vernon Davis as the pinnacle. Photo by The Bay Area Bias.

Futures: UNC TE Eric Ebron

by Matt Waldman

Eric Ebron is the hot name among the NFL Draft media, but the University of North Carolina tight end isn’t some flash fire that ignited at Chapel Hill in mid-October. The Tar Heel has been ablaze for two seasons –- make it three if you count a searing 20.7 yards per catch average on 10 receptions as a freshman. Tyler Eifert, many a draftnik’s top tight end prospect in 2013’s class, is a moderate bush fire by comparison.

NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks wrote about Ebron this week. He invokedJimmy Graham and Antonio Gates as impact players who Ebron could rival one day if the junior declares for the 2014 NFL Draft. There’s a lot of heft to that statement.

Brooks displayed the restraint not to compare Ebron’s skills directly to Graham and Gates. Such a comparison would be like linking Steve Wonder to Neil Young — both are fine singer-songwriters with instrumental talents, but their styles are too disparate for a fine comparison.

Player comparisons are a problematic exercise. The intent is to provide a functional short hand. Do it well and the comparison can evoke layers of nuanced analysis of physical build, strengths, weaknesses, playing style, and schematic fit. Do it poorly and the end result can be one-dimensional. Worse, display a lack of sophisticated study and you can even have unintentional racial overtones.

I believe a better way to create player comparisons is to add more dimensions to the exercise. It’s far from a perfect method, but it does help me evoke multiple images of players that illustrate layers of analysis you don’t get with just one player.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Remember The Name: C.J. Anderson

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In a season where quality running back production has been as scarce as ever, it’s vital to consider talent that has lurked behind the scenes. Broncos rookie C.J. Anderson is that kind of player. The former backup at Cal is getting a shot with Denver’s active roster this weekend ahead of Ronnie Hillman, who won’t dress after fumbling the ball inside the Indianapolis five last weekend.

It’s unknown whether Anderson will get a chance to see playing time. And I can’t tell you if the rookie will look as good as he did in the preseason or experience growing pains the way the Patriots wide receiving corps struggled in September. I will share that as a fantasy owner, Anderson has been sitting on a majority of my dynasty league rosters since August.

Ryan Riddle is also a big fan of Anderson’s game. Riddle, a record holder at Cal, speculated that Anderson’s role as a backup was due more to politics than talent. Based on what I studied last year, I believe there’s validity to that assertion.

Based on what I saw from Anderson this summer, I think he has the best combination of physical dimensions, agility, burst, and balance of the backs on this roster. Knowshon Moreno is a better passing down back, but I think Anderson offers more as a runner and, with more experience, he has the potential to be as good as Moreno in the passing game.

In fact, I think Anderson showed me more agility this summer in Broncos’ camp than what I saw at Cal. His impressive preseason combined with lackluster performances from Hillman and some doubts about Ball led me to hold onto Anderson where I could.

Here’s a sample of what I have on Anderson in the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.  

Player Comparison:  Rudi Johnson due to  Anderson’s thick frame, well-balanced style, and a downhill mentality. He’s an economic runner with good feet like Johnson.

Overall Assessment: Anderson is a hard runner with a good burst, skill as a pass protector, and capable of starting for a team if called upon. I think he could surprise in the NFL as a lead back in a committee and even be the full-time starter if called upon.

Profile of C.J. Anderson, Cal (5-8, 224)
Anderson is a strong runner with good lower body development that helps him explode through contact. He possesses a low center of gravity and is rarely knocked backward. Anderson runs with low pad level and hits holes hard, but he also demonstrates patience and cutback skill to press a hole to let his blocks develop. He does a good job anticipating interior blocks and working through double teams just as they develop to hit tight creases for positive gains.

He also has a good enough burst to get through fairly tight creases and beat an unblocked backside defender to the crease. Although he plays with quickness, he appears to be a one-speed runner without a lot of lateral agility once at full speed and into the secondary. A real positive of Anderson’s game is his feet, which are a lot like that of former Bengals runner Rudi Johnson who didn’t thrive with elaborate cuts, but could changed his stride to get downfield and avoid trash in the hole or make one cut. Anderson does the same thing.

The Golden Bear also demonstrates press and cut skills on zone plays. He’s more of a one-cut runner with decent feet, but I didn’t see evidence of great elusiveness. His power is a little better than functional, but not extraordinary.

The Cal back carries the ball under his outside arm (right or left) and as a receiver he catches the ball with his hands, does a good job working with his quarterback to present a good target, and he can take a hit in the act of securing the football.

Pass blocking is good and can get better. Sometimes Anderson will “catch” a defender with his hands out in pass protection rather than deliver a punch, but when he decides to strike with his hands, he displays excellent placement and power with good technique. He also displays accurate diagnosis the oncoming pressure. I think he has a chance to surprise at the NFL level because of his build, style, and smarts as a runner. I think he can be a first-line reserve back in the NFL because he does everything well enough to start, but nothing extraordinary that would warrant him an instant opportunity to compete for the job until he at least proves what he can do at the pro level in some games.

C.J. Anderson RSP Play-By-Play Reports and Grading Checklists

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 10/24/2013

This looked like an overthrow, but it was a rookie mistake by the promising Johnathan Franklin. Read the Gut Check and find out why.
This looked like an overthrow, but it was a rookie mistake by the promising Johnathan Franklin. Read the Gut Check and find out why.

Thanks

If you’re new to the RSP blog, every Friday I post Reads Listens Views – items I’m consuming on the Internet. Some of it is football, a lot of it isn’t. You won’t like everything I share, but I believe you’ll like at least one thing each week. It’s also a chance for me to thank you for reading my content on this blog, at Footballguys, Football Outsiders, and (each January) The New York Times.

And most of all, I get to thank those of you who support my work here and elsewhere by purchasing The Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

For the uninitiated, the RSP is The Rookie Scouting Portfolio, my annual publication that is the most comprehensive analysis of skill position players around. I have nearly 1300 pages of quality content (just for 2013) to back that up. Learn about it here. You can download 2013’s publication ($19.95) or get past issues at half price ($9.95) at this link. I give 10 percent of each sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit devoted to preventing sexual abuse in communities through the creation and implementation of training and awareness programs.

Evan Silva, thank you for reminding us on Twitter of this gem.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/EXOUkzIEib8]

I’ve played my share of Derek Trucks guitar solos in this weekly feature, but Susan Tedeschi performs a tasty one here.

Football Reads

  • Football Outsiders’ Film Room – Cian Fahey does a sweet job studying Ryan Tannehill and Joe Haden. I like his focus on cornerbacks, it makes me think about receivers. If Cian’s knee wasn’t as old as I am I’d like to pair what I’ve learned against what he knows with a reasonable passer targeting me. Fahey, if you dish any of that Janoris Jenkins trash my way – even in Irish slang – you’ll wish I was Steve Smith.
  • Guide to the NFL Workout Circuit – Former National Football Post writer and NFL safety Matt Bowen writes about the vicious cycle of in-season tryouts to join a team.
  • Disruption Is Production – Josh Norris and I have a mutual admiration society going. Within a week of each other we posted articles about two of the most disruptive defensive tackles in college football and why their on-field production doesn’t always appear in the box score. Good stuff if you want to get past headlines that do nothing but perpetuate shallow knowledge of the game you love.
  • Random ShotsJoe Bryant, with a little help from some great friends, writes a terrific feature on the lighter side of the NFL. Bryant has a simple, direct style that makes for great reading.
  • The Gut Check No.283: The Gut Check’s Film Room – I open the home theater for a double feature of Jarrett Boykin and Case Keenum with a short feature on Joique Bell.

Views – Mandatory Education on The War on Drugs

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uuCVbR8vO_U]

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Vef03k5i8VI]

Non-Football Reads

  • Russell Brand Started a Revolution Last Night – Whether you agree or disagree with Brand, I like that he encourages people to question things we often take for granted. Most of all, I love that he doesn’t take a reporter’s agenda and format for granted and instead questions them at every turn on their modus operandi. Keep holding the mirror to their faces until they realize they’re behavior is a silly game.
  • Why I Made BlackfishThe documentary about Sea World’s practice of keeping Orcas in captivity is heartbreaking, but a must-see. Did you know there’s no human fatality by an Orca on record in the wild? Go figure.
  • Wildlife Photographer of the Year – Worth viewing some beauty in its element right about now, am I right?
  • U.S. Rivers Packed With Garbage – Silly me, to think garbage only went in our landfills and legislatures.
  • Thinking Fast And Slow – Adam Harstad is a long-time Footballguys’ Shark Pool regular and new staff writer. He recommended this book from heralded economist on cognitive bias. Adding it to my reading list.

Views – Most Popular Boys’ Names By Year Since 1960 – Gif From The Atlantic

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/nls1HtXQe8E]

I like this pop group. These guys can sing, play, and jazz up something that would otherwise be pretty bland.

Why Matt Stafford is a Polarizing Quarterback

The Emily Post School of Quarterback Analysts does not approve. Photo by Marianne O'Leary.
The Emily Post School of Quarterback Analysts does not approve. Photo by Marianne O’Leary.

I’m a Matt Stafford fan. If you’re the kind of person who has an anxiety attack if you don’t have your morning coffee in that black mug you bought 12 years ago, then you probably dislike Stafford. If you’re a nitpicking analyst who lacks the perspective to see that numerous small flaws don’t outweigh a significant positive, you probably hate the Lions quarterback. I get it and many of these people are excellent writers with a terrific grasp of the sport.

They still need to stop thinking like the engineers, lawyers, and accountants that they are who write as a sideline.

At least once a week on Twitter, I see a writer slam Stafford for his poor footwork, his unsound throwing form, and his tendency not to follow through with his release in situations where he had a chance. And these Emily Posts of NFL football analysis are accurate with their takes. But are they really seeing the big picture?

They can cite quarterback rating, win-loss record, completion percentage to receivers not named Johnson, and several other points that fit their argument against Stafford ever becoming a top-notch starting quarterback. To be honest, I’m not confident that Stafford will ever take that next step to join the ranks of the very best in the league even if his yardage and touchdown totals might allow fans to make an argument in his favor as his career unfolds.

What is important to mention is that I see a bias among fans and analysts with honorary certificates from the Emily Post Evening School of Quarterback Technique. They’re naturally a paint by numbers crowd. They’ve learned the nuances of the game’s rules, strategies, and techniques, but they’ve failed to maintain an overall perspective beyond the minutiae of these details.

The acceptable model of “good quarterbacking” is still in the spectrum of Matt Ryan. The Falcons quarterback is a paint-by-numbers dream. If prep schools taught quarterbacking the way J. Evans Pritchard’s introduction outlines the proper way to appreciate poetry, Ryan would be within the acceptable range of that formula. Sam Bradford would probably be higher than you think – a player the Emily Post analysts would praise as an under-appreciated passer who has had unfortunate circumstances to begin his career.

However, I think Matt Ryan and Matt Stafford are pretty even as quarterbacks. Most will disagree because they have a bias when it comes to favoring mental acumen and consistency over special physical talent and inventive creativity. I’m among the most guilty of emphasizing the mental-savvy angle over physical talent.

But my message is really about not writing off less physically talented players.  At the same time, you shouldn’t write off players who may lack the refined technique and high-end preparation results in the robotic, J. Evans Pritchard style of play. Lots of folks will tell you that they dislike quarterbacks like Brett Favre, Tim Tebow, Jay Cutler, and Ben Roethlisberger for their off-field behavior. However, I think one of the root issues that isn’t discussed is that they are creative players who err on the side of erratic behavior.

It’s easier to accept the fact that a player like Matt Ryan is going to be a conceptual quarter-bot with limited arm strength, mobility, and creativity when the play breaks down (although he has just enough arm and mobility to have a wide range before his athleticism and inventiveness reach their outer limits) than it is to accept an athlete with an off-the-chart arm and inventiveness like Matt Stafford to experience a brain fart. There’s something more acceptable within our society for our opponent to test our physical limitations than to come undone conceptually.

The Emily Post quarterbacks aren’t risk takers. As a result, their mistakes don’t appear as egregious as the likes of Favre, Roethlisberger, Cutler, or Tebow. These passers are more PR-friendly to fans and personnel directors. They’re either hitting the appropriate marks or the defense put them in situations where they could not physically make the play and the blame is spread among the passer’s teammates and coaches. The risk takers are more likely to have extremes that look like genius on a good day and imbecility on a bad day.

Give Stafford Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez, and I think he’d be just as productive as Ryan. He’d have more highs and lows, but I think the overall difference would be minimal. However until recently, Stafford has had one quality weapon compared to Ryan’s three. While we’re quick to show Stafford’s flaws, we’re trying to place a round peg in a square hole.

Stafford is capable of things many quarterbacks can’t do, but it also means his style will generate the types of mistakes that frustrate us because we don’t realize that high-end physical genius requires a risk that can cross the line to recklessness. With the exception of Tom Coughlin, most coaches are more patient with running backs in this sense. Aggressive players like Adrian Peterson or Eric Dickerson fumbled dozens of times during the first three years of their careers, but the coaches continued to go to the well with them. Coughlin, doesn’t want to recognize that David Wilson is a special physical talent whose risk of imbecility is worth the reward of game-changing genius.

Here’s a typical Matt Stafford play that I believe treads the line between genius and imbecility, but something you have to encourage if you’re going to commit to a player of Stafford’s rare physical talent.  It’s a 3rd-and-six pass from a 1×3 receiver, 10 personnel pistol  at the Bengals’ 11 with 3:42 in the first quarter and down by seven.

Stafford A1

On this play, Cincinnati drops seven and rushes four. When at defense has the likes of Carlos Dunlap, Michael Johnson, and a sub like Wallace Gilberry do complement the interior like of Geno Atkins and Domata Peko, it’s a great reason why the Bengals are in first place in the AFC North. This is the same rush-four, drop-seven formula that made the Ravens defense dominant for several years. Seattle’s unit is also approaching this realm of excellence.

Stafford takes the snap and looks deep to short on the trips side as his starting point of his read. This is a good move, considering that the presnap photo above shows that the single receiver has a corner playing outside with a safety over top covering the inside. If the single receiver drew man coverage, Stafford would likely look there first.

Stafford A2

The main player Stafford is seeking is Johnson  deep, but the coverage drop has enough depth that the Lions quarterback has to come off his favorite target. While the other receiver working behind Johnson is breaking open outside, this is not a good choice. The linebacker at the five is in great position to break on the route and the receiver’s break is too shallow to generate a lot of yardage without breaking a tackle. The biggest reason this route isn’t a viable option is Carlos Dunlap generating a push so deep into the pocket that he closes Stafford’s throwing lane outside. If he guns it, the pass will be low enough to deflect. If he lofts it, the linebacker has time to cut it off or break up the receiver’s attempt.

Stafford A3

To compound the difficulty of this situation, Michael Johnson has whipped the left tackle off the edge and it’s impossible for Stafford to climb the pocket without working through contact from the defensive end. While Stafford is a big quarterback, climbing the pocket in this situation is a losing proposition for even the most physically sturdy quarterbacks in the league 95 percent of the time – and I’m being generous. Stafford could try to spin outside the pocket , but if he does this, only Brandon Pettigrew (No.87) is working to the left flat on the cross and the tight end’s path leads directly towards the linebacker and cornerback – not good odds for Stafford, who will have to run at least 10 yards just to reach the line of scrimmage if he opts to tuck the ball and try to gain the first down with his legs.

Stafford knows that his only choice is No.18 Durham on the crossing route under the tight end. Durham gets the benefit of Pettigrew crossing the face of the linebacker at the left hash. With an accurate throw, he can hit Durham on the run  in the direction of he two receivers running off the coverage on the right side of the field. The depth of Durham’s route is enough to earn the first down. This is all diagnosis that J.W. Pritchard would approve. However, look at the position of Johnson and Dunlap when Stafford reaches his third read.

Stafford A4

For most NFL quarterbacks, this is checkmate. Brady, Manning, or Ryan making this play? Forget it. They’re throwing it away for another day. The defense painted them into a corner that they can’t escape. Stafford, Cutler, or Favre back in the day? Different story.

Stafford A5

As maddening as Stafford’s Quisenberry throwing motion can be on plays where he has time to use proper form, this play is a work of art. Stafford not only releases the ball before Johnson wraps him, but from an angle that whizzes past Johnson’s ear hole,  splits the defensive ends, and leads the receiver low and away so he can shield the oncoming defender to make the play.

Stafford A6

Stafford A7

Durham makes the grab, turns inside the defender over his back and falls forward to the Cincinnati three for the first down. Three plays later, Stafford hits Pettigrew to tie the game. If you look at the idea methods of throwing the football, field position, down-and-distance, and game situation, the “low-risk” play would have been to throw the ball away or take the sack and kick the field goal. But does it make sense to tell a player not to play to his physical ability because he’s in the top 1 percentile of throwers of a football?

It’s a high-risk play for the average NFL starter, but is it really a high-risk play for a guy like Stafford? Perhaps it still is, but I doubt the Lions drafted Stafford without the realization that he was a creative, risk-taking gunslinger. You make a commitment to a player like Stafford with the willingness to live with the tear-your-hair-out moments. It doesn’t mean you don’t try to limit them, but not at the expense of removing the creativity completely from his game.

Marc Trestman hasn’t killed Jay Cutler’s creativity. By emphasizing the run, focusing on quick reads and short passes, and improving the offensive line, the coach has just limited the situations where Cutler is forced to take as many egregious risks. Even Dan Reeves didn’t completely kill John Elway’s creativity. It may have felt that way to Elway, who had the shackles on him via Sammy Winder’s 3.9 yards-per-carry average for three and a half quarters per game. But if the game script called for it, Reeves unleashed Elway’s special talent.

I don’t know if Matt Stafford will ever become a great quarterback, but his physical skills make him capable of rare moments that the more conventional starters in this league will never have. We just have to realize that the good and the bad we face with a physical marvel (Stafford) is different from that of a technician (Ryan).

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2014 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: Arizona State DT Will Sutton

Will Sutton may not be the next Geno Atkins, but his "senior year slump" is a gross mischaracterization. Photo by Ashley and Matthew Hemingway.
Will Sutton may not be the next Geno Atkins, but his “senior year slump” is a gross mischaracterization. Photo by Ashley and Matthew Hemingway.

The Arizona State defensive tackle’s story is turning into another example of where the system is focused on spotting flaws more than serious consideration of how to maximize available talent.

Futures: Arizona State DT Will Sutton

By Matt Waldman

Unusual. Not typical. Uncommon. Extraordinary.

These are all meanings of “exceptional”.

The best talent evaluators create opportunities within their process to find the exceptional. They understand what business writer George Anders means when he says that it’s important to keep channels openbecause talent does not always fit the typical requirements:

When hiring talent, many companies generally search for candidates with narrow, time-tested backgrounds. Hunting strictly in those familiar zones doesn’t find everybody, however. When selectors apply such rules too tightly, lots of fascinating candidates on the fringe get overlooked. There’s no mechanism for considering the 100-to-1 long shot, let alone the 1,000-to-1 candidate. On a one at-a-time basis, it’s easy to say that such candidates aren’t worth the time it would take to assess them. Yet ignoring all of these outsiders can mean squandering access to a vast amount of talent.

Good organizations, according to Anders, know how to balance a conventional process for hiring talent while taking more progressive attitudes about the initial search:

  • Not restricting where they seek talent. Being open to alternate sources limits how often they have to pay a “conformity tax” by doing what everyone else does. Think Victor Cruz at UMass. The fact the Giants were willing to give Cruz a tryout was more than one could say about many teams.
  • Suspending disbelief about a candidate in the early stages of evaluation. Seeing potential value instead of writing off a candidate before evaluating him. Think of the several NFL teams, scouts, and media-hired evaluators whose grades of Russell Wilson were low because they’re processes are about spotting flaws more than spotting skill or opportunities for skills to thrive. Of the many scouts who did see Wilson’s talent, a majority were driven by the preconceived expectation that their bosses would punish them for championing a player they knew their superiors would dismiss without an open evaluation of the quarterback’s ability.
  • Realizing that other industries cultivate desirable skills that can create a viable pool of talent. Think Antonio Gates, Jimmy Graham, and Tony Gonzalez – three basketball players in college and were encouraged to makefootball their professional goal.

Gates, Graham, and Gonzalez aren’t just examples of progressive scouts and front office types. They each heeded an inner belief that they could play at the highest level. This is a part of being an exceptional talent.

LaRoi Glover was an exceptional talent. The former Saint’s resume is that of a future Hall of Famer: Six consecutive trips to the Pro Bowl (2000-2005), a four-time All-Pro, and a member of the NFL’s 2000s All-Decade Team. Headlining those accomplishments was a 2000 season where Glover led the NFL in sacks and earned NFC Defensive Player of the Year –as a defensive tackle.

Few NFL teams had anywhere close to this level of regard for Glover’s potential. A two-time All-WAC defender from San Diego State, Glover entered the league as a 6’2”, 290-pound rookie – a generous listing of his physical dimensions. A baseline weight for NFL defensive tackles – even the speedier, agile three-techniques in a 4-3 defense like Warren Sapp – is 300 pounds.

The Oakland Raiders selected Glover in the fifth round of the 1996 NFL Draft. The team used the rookie in two games during the month of November and at season’s end, allocated Glover to the Barcelona Dragons of the World League. Glover earned all-league honors, but it wasn’t enough for the Raiders to give him a second look. Oakland cut Glover on August 24 of the 1997 preseason.

The Saints signed the defensive tackle the following day and they weren’t as dismissive with Glover’s potential. They gave Glover a chance to play based on what they saw and not what their coaches were guessing. The next three seasons, the young defender demonstrated great promise – earning a total of 23 sacks.

In 2000, new head coach Jim Haslett moved Glover to the three-technique, paired the explosive tackle with space eater Norman Hand, and the rest is history.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Reads Listens Views: 10/18/2013

Case Keenum reminds Wade Phillips of Tony Romo. Photo by Football Schedule.
Case Keenum reminds Wade Phillips of Tony Romo. Photo by Football Schedule.
This week’s RLVs includes a sample report on former Houston Cougars’ QB Case Keenum, who will be starting for the Texans this weekend. The rest of RLV? Your normal fare of stuff on my reading, listening, and viewing list, which of course is anything but normal. 

RSP Sample: Texans’ New Starting QB Case Keenum

[youtube=http://youtu.be/LZ8F04L1Mys]

Keenum was my No.14 QB in the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Here is what I wrote about the former Houston Cougar who Wade Phillips believe has the potential to achieve career heights similar to Tony Romo. At the end of this profile is a sample report on Keenum.

14. Case Keenum, Houston (6-0, 208) – Keenum has a quick, over the top release. He’s an anticipation thrower and not as likely to gun the ball into tight spaces from difficult angles or distances. He’s an effective down field thrower of the football because of this anticipation and his touch. He places good arc on throws and has a knack for dropping the ball over his receiver’s shoulder in tight coverage.

Keenum can throw the ball more than 40 yards down field, but he didn’t demonstrate the ability to drive the ball with power on deeper routes. When he doesn’t throw the ball with good anticipation, his high arcing passes can get him into trouble on deeper routes because he brings coverage back into the play and creates unnecessary jump-ball situations. I think the extent of his range is probably 45 yards.

I’m also uncertain about his ability to drive the ball on intermediate routes, which will be important for him to make plays against defenses that force him from the pocket or paint him into a corner. He sees the field well enough to find receivers in a reasonably crowded pocket and he can throw the ball off his back foot and from different angles. He throws well moving to his right.

However, Keenum was frequently too aggressive on plays where he should have either thrown the ball away, tried to elude pressure, or tuck the ball and run. He had a few throws that he put up for grabs. It was as if his answer every time he was pressured was to throw the ball at least 15 yards down field and usually 40.

His play action game needs work and he was under center only once in the game I scored. The big questions are whether he can execute a pro style game from center, make the requisite power throws, and learn to make better decisions with the football under pressure. I don’t think the NFL is going to give him a chance, but of the quarterbacks I studied, he flashes enough skill to earn a spot late on this list and at least a camp invite.

Sample Play-by-Play Report of Case Keenum

Views – Now This is a Bird’s Eye View!

[youtube=http://youtu.be/-7IVjCQ26pE]

Views – What Would Bob Harris Do?

Yep, that’s the shark move. Boy, I kill myself sometimes . . .

Football Reads

Views – Arkansas RB: “We’re gonna need a bigger boat”

[youtube=http://youtu.be/reROq81-Vm8]

Great call from The Big Lead on the (unfortunate) uncommon sense that Jadeveon Clowney’s draft stock hasn’t moved a millimeter. He just pushed three-fifths of the Razorbacks’ offensive line into the backfield on a run play, Only major off-field issues would keep me from drafting him in the top-three overall in 2014.

Views – Funny/True: A Lobbyist And a Senator Walk Into a Restaurant

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Hy9_fsL6uS8]

Non-Football Reads

Listens – Ornette Coleman (Light Stretching for the MInd/Soul)

[youtube=http://youtu.be/RUknEreFHNg]

Thanks for reading and stay tuned tomorrow for my take on Arizona State defensive tackle Will Sutton in my Futures column at Football Outsiders.

NFL Closeup: Kenny Stills and 50/50 Ball Technique

Stills' provides a great demonstration of 50-50 ball technique.
Stills’ provides a great demonstration of 50-50 ball technique.

An essential part of studying college stars is projecting them to the NFL game. You can’t do that well unless you’re well-versed in the NFL game. Therefore I watch a ton of pro football.

One of the terms I dislike that describes an aspect of playing the wide receiver position is “50/50 balls.” The term connotes that the offense is flipping a coin on the fate of a target. There’s also a perception that a target of this type requires a receiver with great physical skill to win the match up.

Height, vertical prowess, and strength are helpful, but there is technique involved with winning a “50/50 ball.” His touchdown reception late in the fourth quarter against two Patriots defensive backs is a great example. Here is a frame-by-frame demonstration.

Stills begins the play working against Alfonso Dennard in man coverage, getting behind the corner back with a quick fake outside. As he works down field, Brees throws the ball with a lot of arc and Stills is forced to wait on the target.

StillsA1

The Patriots corner is in great position: The outside shoulder is in the middle of Stills’ chest and he’s dictating position to win the ball or at least play the pass and present a difficult obstacle for the ball to reach the receiver. However, note the position of Stills’ hands as he and Dennard track the football.  Stills has his hands away from his body, above his chest, and above the arm of the defensive back.

This position gives Stills a chance to win the ball without fighting through Dennard’s reach to obtain the pass. The fact that his position is above Dennard’s arm also means he can be first to attack the pass despite Dennard having a better position to the pass.

StillsA2

As the ball arrive, Dennard turns and raises his arms to the sky. Stills maintains his position with his hands on the defender’s shoulder and turns his body to face the ball. Stills is now in position to address two contingencies. First, if Dennard gets his hands on the ball, Stills has his hands in position to chop the defender’s arms away from the pass and prevent an interception. Considering the position of the defender, it’s good that Stills recognizes and prepares for his possibility.  Second, Stills is facing the target and gaining position to attack the football if it gets past Dennard’s reach.

StillsA3

As the ball arrives, Dennard is not attacking the ball as a receiver. He’s not square to the target and he only has one arm raised towards the ball. This nullifies much of Dennard’s position advantage and reduces his chances of intercepting the pass. One arm reaching for the ball instead of two also diminishes the chances of the corner even getting a hand on the football.

This poor approach to the ball also increases Stills’ chances to make a play, and the rookie has planned well. He is facing the target, both hands are up, and he’s in position to rip the ball loose of Dennard’s grip or attack the ball as a receiver.

StillsA5

The ball arrives just inside Dennard’s reach and Stills makes a successful attack on the target, catching it with good hands technique: arms extended, palms facing the ball, and fingers up.  As soon as Stills makes the grab, he does the best possible thing, use his body to shield the safety.

StillsA6

The rookie turns outside the defenders and gives a cold shoulder to the safety, preventing a successful rip and enhancing his chances of securing the ball as he falls to the ground. This is the type of play Stills has demonstrated much of the preseason and it’s why he’s seeing red zone targets in Week 6 of the regular season.

This is in direct contrast of a play I profiled of Stills last year where you can see him struggling with the appropriate hands technique in the red zone. This is a different type of play, but the emphasis on body and hand position remain important. This play is a great demonstration of a young player demonstrating veteran savvy and technique.

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Keenan Allen RSP Sample

[youtube=https://youtu.be/08iQJLu41Yc]

The following excerpt and attachment at the end of this post are samples from the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio on Chargers’ wide receiver Keenan Allen. The Cal prospect was my No.2 receiver in both the pre-draft and post-draft versions of the RSP despite the fact he ran poor 40-times due to a lingering knee injury. The excerpt is from my rankings profile in the pre-draft RSP. The attachment is the checklists and play-by-play reports of the games I used to grade Allen. 

2. Keenan Allen, California (6-2, 206)

If it weren’t for Patterson being that rare player with other worldly talent, Allen would pose a strong argument as the best prospect in this class of receivers. What flies off the screen when I watched Allen was similar to Patterson: Allen’s ability to make defenders miss in the open field with a variety of moves that you don’t often see from one player in a game, much less within the span of a four-yard gain. Allen may lack long speed, but he is lightning-quick, and sharp with his moves, and he sees the openings in tight quarters better than many players at his position. It just so happens he’s not as quick, fast, or strong as Patterson. These two have a lot of work to have this caliber of career, but imagine Ladainian Tomlinson (Allen) in the same draft class as Bo Jackson (Patterson). It’s a little tougher to appreciate Tomlinson’s athleticism in this situation.

Allen is a more refined, consistent talent than Patterson. He is very good against press coverage and he has the strength and coordination to swat, swim, swipe, or duck through the jam and his coordination between his hands and feet is excellent. The Cal receiver is capable of excellent hard breaks with a strong plant of the front leg and sink of his hips to generate a quick stop and turn. Combined this man-to-man technique with his understanding of when and where to break against zone coverage, all he needs is the ball in his hands on-time and in stride and he’s capable of generating big plays.

That is the component of the passing game that has been missing for Allen. The Cal receiver has lacked consistency at quarterback and there were plenty of routes where with a better passer he would have displayed even more ability to catch the ball with his back to the quarterback and make plays in rhythm that sends him into the open seam with the ball in his hand. There are enough plays from him against the likes of Cal-Davis, Arizona State, and Nevada that reveal a player with awareness of the sideline, skill with sharp breaks, and the ability to make plays more than swing passes, screen passes, hooks, and crossers.

What the inconsistent quarterback play did reveal is that Allen has a wide catch radius to make plays on errant throws away from his frame. He does an excellent job digging out low passes, high-pointing throws over his head, and extending for balls head or behind him on crossing routes or hooks. He does all of this with athletic grace and grit in the face of contact. If Allen could gain another 10-15 pounds with his height and speed, he could become a more formidable yards after contact receiver because at this point he falls when hit squarely by a defender in open space. However, the challenge for = college opponents is getting a hat on Allen in the first place. And I have little doubt that this will surely be an issue for NFL defenders.

Allen’s deep speed is his greatest question mark. At worst, he’ll be a deep-ball threat only in the play action game, but given his skill to get early separation, maintain position, adjust to the football, and make plays in the open field, I have little doubt that he’ll thrive as a high-volume receiver.

Keenan Allen Sample (Click to download .PDF)
For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.