Date Archives October 2013

Futures: Florida State WR Rashad Greene

October 12, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Matt Waldman

When I watch FSU WR Rashad Greene, I see shades of Desean Jackson's game. Photo by Avinashkunnath. — When I watch FSU WR Rashad Greene, I see shades of Desean Jackson’s game. Photo by Avinashkunnath.

Futures: Florida State WR Rashad Greene

By Matt Waldman

When it comes to workouts, interviews, and background investigations, I have nothing on the NFL. I’m just like everyone else; I’m waiting to hear the outcomes of whatever the league shares with the public. But after speaking with former and current scouts, I can say with confidence that the NFL has nothing on me when it comes to my process for evaluating on-field performance.

It sounds a lot like I’m saying that I know more about football than NFL scouts and front offices, but what I mean is that I believe I have a process that does a better job of helping an evaluator structure his thinking and get out of his own way. I’ve seen scouting reports from the National Scouting Service as well as reports form NFL teams. Based on the structure of their reporting, many teams don’t realize that their methodology often gets in the way of their collective knowledge.

They don’t have a written working definition for every positional technique they observe. They don’t possess a weighted score assigned to each. And they don’t categorize and define the level of difficulty to improve skills as a player transitions to the NFL.

I know of an NFL player-personnel man borrowing some of my ideas to incorporate into his team’s scouting processes. This is because the things I described eliminate some of the inherent variation that exists among scouts and management. But this type of change in thinking is a slow sell compared to upgrading technology that allows them to do the same things they’ve been doing for 50 years – only with greater speed and convenience.

While I believe my process is a good start towards a consistent approach when evaluating players, at the end of the day there’s no denying that scouting talent is a subjective process. Subjectivity can be a bad word – especially for a site like Football Outsiders, which strives to use data to arrive at insights that provide a counterpoint to fallacies stemming from what we observe on a qualitative level. However, I doubt anyone writing for this site would say all subjective analysis is bad.

I believe in the power of intuition. Some of you who lean hard on black and white thinking may be turned off to that idea. The idea that intuition is a bodily indicator based on factors we cannot fully explain (yet) is hogwash. I can’t help you there – you feel similar about it or you don’t.

When I evaluate a player and his performance evokes a feeling that I attribute to intuition, I accept that feeling. It doesn’t mean that I ignore my scouting process or change my outcomes, but I have learned to pay attention to those emotions.

Sometimes what resonates when I watch a player is something that is a part of my everyday life: I’m a magnet for the troubled. I’ve learned how to see it coming in life, but in football, I am still learning that many players I have a strong feeling about are prospects carrying a lot of off-field baggage that bleeds into their professional lives.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

Reads Listens Views 10/11/13

October 10, 2013 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

Listens I

[youtube=http://youtu.be/nt79VJ7ZElw]

Football Reads

Football Outsiders’ Film Room: Cian Fahey illustrating plays from the pros that oftentimes were similar to what I showed about them at the college level (Tannehill and Wilson).
Coverage of Fantasy Throwdown’s Tourney – Mike MacGregor’s one-on-one fantasy game is one you have to check out.
Concussion Watch – Frontline tracks the concussions occuring in the NFL by week and position.
League of Denial – Watch the entire investigative report here.
Early NFL Omens – Robert Weintraub’s look at things we should have learned in Week 1 about the next six weeks.
Football Is Dead. Long Live Football – Worth another post. Yes, it is that good.

Listens II

[youtube=http://youtu.be/7c81PrmGwwo]

Non-Football Reads

Drum Teacher Was Scurrilous, Rude – and Greatly Admired – Now that’s an obituary.
If He Hollers Let Him Go – Great telling of Dave Chappelle’s life and impact on comedy and the race discussion in America.
The Case for Writing a Story Before Knowing How It Ends – Andre Dubus III used to write in his car on breaks from his subcontractor’s gigs. Great advice.
The Problem of Prolonging Life – I had a family doctor who said if he grew old and infirm, find him a cabin in the woods and leave him there with canned goods, a can opener, and a gun. I know a few doctors who nod their heads in agreement. It should tell you about the business of life-prolonging care in our country.
Dogs Are People, Too – Another compelling piece of research that shows we know so little about animals and need to treat them with more respect.
Seal Lion Taunts Great White Shark – Fun series of photos of animal trash talking.
These Journalists Spent Two Years and $750,000 Covering One Story – And why investigative journalism saves lives.
Angola 3 Inmate Tastes ‘Bittersweet’ Freedom – Why investigative journalism might have helped this man’s cause a lot sooner.

Listens III

[youtube= http://youtu.be/MzAWZU7vQq4]

Views/Commentary – Pro Football Players By Place of Birth (Chart by Atlantic Cities)

This map is part of an article about Malcolm Gladwell’s assessment that football will become “ghettoized” and middle class families will discourage their kids from playing the sport. I’m stunned about the fuss made over this assertion; just follow the trail of money and it’s clear this is already happening. Academic critics of college football have long pointed to its exploitative social hierarchy before investigative reporters delved into the subject. University of Georgia professor Billy Hawkins published a book about it in 2000, “The New Plantation: The Internal Colonization of Black Student Athletes“. You can read highlights here.

Another trail of money is the funds the NFL has spent to shift its public relations strategy from the gladiatorial days of selling NFL Films’ Greatest Hits to heavy rotation of a kinder-gentler-safer Heads-Up PR campaign aimed towards parents of young children who are thinking twice about allowing their kids to play the sport. And of course, the most obvious money trail is the legal expense to head a court case off at the pass in order to slow the decline of the game.

Slow decline might be the best way to describe of the future of the NFL. The league got into bed with prime time television in 1970 when Monday Night Football was born and this was really the beginning of the NFL’s ascent into the mass media consciousness. If 1970 was the birth of the NFL’s Golden Age, its childhood and adolescence were the 80s and 90s. Cable television (ESPN), music videos (MTV – Chicago Bears), VHS and DVD (NFL Films) all made the game more marketable.

It means the past 15 years have arguably been the NFL in its prime: record revenues, no labor issues impacting the regular season, the huge television contracts, coverage of the NFL Draft and Combine, and even a 24/7 broadcast network run by the league. Throw in the NFL smartly commoditizing digital technology – streaming coach’s film, quick-editing of cutups, fantasy sports, and adopting media aggregation and social media to enhance coverage and education of the game – and this decade has truly been the zenith of the league’s popularity.

But with what we know about the physical toll of the game and the challenges to create technology to prevent it, I’m skeptical the game will ever be as popular as it is this decade. I hope the game evolves and remains a compelling physical, strategic, and spiritual challenge as it increases its safety, but I’m not counting on the game increasing its popularity.

I’m counting on Malcolm Gladwell being more right than wrong.

You see that dot northeast of Atlanta? That’s my hometown of Athens, Georgia, a city renown for the Bulldogs and its music scene. Walk through the gorgeous red-brick, Georgian architecture of the first chartered university in the U.S. and then across the street to the shops and sidewalk tables of restaurants and cafes downtown and the city sells the dream well. Throw in the fact that the hospital is top-notch and the vet school, law school, and business school are pretty good, and it’s a great place for people who have the means to live somewhat segregated from reality.

But there’s a lot more to Athens that these people don’t have to see. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Athens had the third-highest wealth gap in the United States. There as much or more public housing per square mile in the Classic City than anywhere in the southeastern United States. One analysis claims Athens is only safer than 10 percent of the cities in the United States. Police departments from neighboring counties have often been accused of “dumping” their homeless to town.

I’ve lived in Athens for 19 of the past 20 years. They hide the poverty well from the tourists and alumni, but its here. It’s worse now that the yuppies and educators who supported the public schools in the 1980s fled to the neighboring Oconee county where they could enjoy the service economy of Athens, but not have to make the effort to maintain a quality school system after the blue collar jobs left and their kids graduated. The graduation rate for the city high schools is 55 percent. Rather than promote birth control in the schools, the town preferred to promote abstinence and build a daycare in one of its schools.

Football is a religion here. I know you folks in the Big 10 and Big 12 think you understand, but trust me when I tell you it’s a different level of intensity. I’m not talking about on the field, but the culture of the alumni and fans. Combine that with a gap between rich and poor, black and white, and an SEC institution with one of the largest and most successful athletic departments in the country and I’m not the least bit shocked where football has been heading and why the NFL is trying to turn the tide.

There’s a lot I love about the town, but I’m not going to pretend it’s something that it’s not. If you’re poor and matriculate through this public school system, there’s a good chance that big-time sports is a lottery ticket out of a cycle of poverty that this local economy cannot fix. Football is a way out. It’s one of the only ways out.

Just look at the map and you’ll see why Gladwell makes a compelling point. It’s easier to watch people you don’t have to truly care about wreck themselves. Especially when you can’t hide from the risks any longer. Uncomfortable things to consider if you’re a fan, but if you really want to claim you care about the game it’s time to take an unflinching look at its problems.

I don’t know what to do about it, but communication and awareness is the first step.

Thanks – Check out my Football Outsiders Futures column on Saturday. I’m profiling one of my favorite players in this 2014 NFL Draft class. Also, learn why I have no problem incorporate intuition into the evaluation process.

Boiler Room: Florida State RB James Wilder

October 8, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Running Back

Running backs are like motorcyclists, eventually they'll lay it down and have trouble walking away from it. Photo by Kyn_Chung. — Running backs are like motorcyclists, eventually they’ll lay it down and have trouble walking away from it. Photo by Kyn_Chung.

I remember James Wilder, Sr. A 6’3″, 225-pound wrecking ball where he had two seasons in Tampa Bay with a combined 772 carries for 2844 yards and 23 touchdowns, Wilder is the best running back in Buccaneers history if you ask me. One of those years, Wilder had 407 carries, 1544 yards rushing, 13 rushing touchdowns and 85 receptions for 685 yards for an 8.1 yards per catch average.

In case you didn’t do the math, that’s 492 touches for 2229 yards from scrimmage – that’s the 16th best yards from scrimmage total in the history of the NFL and the most touches by a player large margin:

NFL Single-Season Touches Leaders – Courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com

Rank	Player (age), + – HOFer, Bold – Active	Touch	Year	Teams
1.	James Wilder (26)	492	1984	TAM
2.	Larry Johnson (27)	457	2006	KAN
3.	Eddie George (27)	453	2000	TEN
4.	LaDainian Tomlinson (23)	451	2002	SDG
5.	Edgerrin James (22)	450	2000	IND
6.	Marcus Allen+ (25)	447	1985	RAI
7.	Ricky Williams (26)	442	2003	MIA
8.	Eric Dickerson+ (23)	441	1983	RAM
9.	Emmitt Smith+ (26)	439	1995	DAL
10.	Jamal Anderson (26)	437	1998	ATL
11.	Steven Jackson (23)	436	2006	STL
12.	Emmitt Smith+ (23)	432	1992	DAL
13.	Edgerrin James (21)	431	1999	IND
14.	Eric Dickerson+ (26)	430	1986	RAM
	Ricky Williams (25)	430	2002	MIA
	Gerald Riggs (25)	430	1985	ATL
17.	Walter Payton+ (30)	426	1984	CHI
	Barry Foster (24)	426	1992	PIT
19.	Eric Dickerson+ (28)	424	1988	IND
20.	Deuce McAllister (25)	420	2003	NOR

In addition to these season marks, Wilder once toted the ball a record 48 times in a single game (and 47 in another contest a year later – good for second on the all-time list). We’re talking about a tough football player in an era of running the football that we’re only given reminders of nowadays.

I think this is important to share, because if the Matthews family has a potential genetic predisposition for athletic longevity in a punishing sport; the Long family breeds linemen; the Manning family farms quarterbacks; and the Winslow family produces tight ends, then 6’1″, 229-pound James Wilder, Jr. has a chance to be a damn good pro running back. Wilder runs a lot like his dad, but there’s an added degree of recklessness that could be a double-edged sword for the young man with an old-school style and it leaves me conflicted about his future.

A series I started last spring at the RSP blog is The Boiler Room. One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play. Yet, if I need a play to add to the highlight reel that will help a team make a decision where to slot Wilder, Jr. on its board, this is my nomination – not because it’s the most impressive play as much as it’s a telling indication of the player in terms of that double-edged sword. This is a run from a 20 personnel shotgun formation inside the Wake Forest red zone with 6:48 in the first half. The next 24 seconds, which includes a replay is a display of strength, agility, recklessness, and flexibility that leaves me ambivalent about Wilder, Jr.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULXz1le2tlU&?start=44w=560&h=315]

This hurdle of the defender is different from what you’ve seen from the likes of Brian Leonard, Knowshown Moreno, and LeGarrette Blount in recent years. Those three backs were known for these plays in the second and third levels of the defense. The hurdling these three backs demonstrated as collegians were prettier plays.

However, this hurdle from Wilder comes within two steps of turning down hill through the hole! While the Russian and Chinese judges would mark him down on form, they’d begrudgingly own him top marks on technical difficulty. This is a nine-yard gain with six coming after the hurdle.

What impresses me most on this play is what we see on the replay. Notice how flexible Wilder is in his legs and hips to rotate his lower body this dramatically. Then there’s the strength to maintain balance at this awkward of a landing point. This is a balls-out, reckless, and fearless run where one can see the old-school influence of watching his father.

However like his father – and most old-school runners – Wilder has admitted to playing with numbness in his shoulder after laying the wood on defenders. He has that “slap some dirt on it” mentality that teammates and coaches love as long as he can go out there and produce. Shoulder injuries and ball carrying go together like shrimp and grits, so I wouldn’t be alarmed about Wilder’s admission.

In the NFL and the NFL media’s hyper-analytic draft environment, medical reports might be a driver in Wilder’s draft stock. Just like Eddie Lacy’s stock fell at least two rounds further than anticipated at least due in part to a toe injury, Wilder’s shoulder may earn some extra scrutiny – especially aggravating the wound in September that hindered him throughout 2012.

Watch the play again and think about his disregard for his body. For a long, lanky, and punishing back, I can see some reasons for concern. At the same time, I love watching him at his best. Here’s a taste of Wilder in the second and third level of the Clemson defense – yes, this is highlight No.2, but I’m a sucker for punishing, determined runners.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULXz1le2tlU&?start=345w=560&h=315]

Again, note the balance and strength of his legs to take a hit that moves his body so his legs plant at an awkward position and he stays upright. While impressive, I just can’t shake the feeling that there’s too great of a tendency for awkward footing and landings that won’t end well. My younger brother, who is a licensed pilot will tell you than any landing you can walk away from is a good landing. However, I’m reminded more of the adage among motorcyclists: It’s not if you’ll lay the bike down, but when.

Running backs are in this respect like stunt bikers. Eventually they’re going to lay it down in a way that they’ll have trouble walking away from the crash. I love Wilder’s battering ram determination, flexibility, and balance. Especially his flexibility. Here’s highlight No.3.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULXz1le2tlU&?start=563w=560&h=315]

That’s a Reggie Bush-like extension without a long, downhill start and doing it while carrying an extra 20 pounds. I smile every time I watch Wilder as a lead blocker making diving plays to upend defenders for his quarterback or backfield teammates. He’s a tough football player. However, I don’t get the same feeling of reckless longevity when I watch Wilder the way I do when I watch Adrian Peterson or Walter Payton or even Wilder, Sr.

I hope I’m wrong.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

RSO Writers’ League Diary: 2013, Week 5

October 8, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Pick rookies with a snake draft, sign the rest like the NFL - free agency at Reality Sports Online. Photo by John Martinez-Paviliga — I have two receivers who are Cal alumni on my roster and both are showing me something in the box score. Photo by John Martinez-Paviliga

Week 5 is in the books and my squad is 2-3 and fourth overall in points scored, including a 163-point weekend without Calvin Johnson and a month-long lack of an RB2, thanks to a Steven Jackson injury.

STANDINGS

Team	W	L	Pts	Waiver
Grinders
Jim Day	5	0	775	14
Bryan Fontaine	3	2	739	10
Bob Harris	3	2	639	11
Jason Wood	2	3	747	7
Matt Waldman	2	3	732	5
Ryan McDowell	1	4	554	3
Mike MacGregor	1	4	547	2
Bangers
Sigmund Bloom	4	1	646	13
Tim Stafford	3	1	589	12
Mike Clay	3	2	645	9
Jeff Tefertiller	2	2	606	8
Rivers McCown	2	3	519	4
Matt Papson	2	3	518	6
Lance Zierlein	1	4	368	1

– See more at: http://www.realitysportsonline.com/LeagueHome.aspx?refid=F5C-50765E26623C#sthash.AFtKbBXx.dpuf

The record isn’t pretty, but I’m feeling pretty good considering that I lost by six points in the opener to Bob Harris, suffered a 50-point blowout to Jim Day’s first-place squad, and then took a 56-point drubbing from Jason Wood’s No.2-scoring team. Everyone else will have to face the likes of Day, Wood, and Fontaine and I should be getting Jackson and Johnson back soon enough. Even if I don’t, I’m enthusiastic about the long-term potential of my roster based on my contract-talent balance:

Wide Receivers: This is the strength of my team. I have Calvin Johnson through 2014, DeSean Jackson and Keenan Allen through 2015, and Cecil Shorts through 2016. Allen, my 2013 first-round pick, has shown the past two weeks that he’s not only healthy, but Philip Rivers is developing confidence in the rookie. Then there are Kenbrell Thompkins and Marlon Brown, who are eligible for me to franchise. It’s unlikely I do because, barring health issue, I have a strong corps in place for the next 2-3 years that could get stronger if Marquess Wilson can assert himself as a viable WR3 for the Bears in 2014. Considering I’m strong long-term at 40 percent of my starting lineup, I’m happy.
Running Backs: While a weakness of my team this year, there’s a good chance it could be a lot stronger next. I have Arian Foster through 2014 and Ben Tate through 2015. This could be a fine RB1-RB2 combination next year if Tate stays healthy and a team like the Browns sign him to a free agent deal. Jackson’s deal will expire at the end of this year, so I’m hoping I can get the most from him down the stretch for a playoff run. My depth at this position is poor. I turned down deals for Danny Woodhead and Andre Ellington from Mike Clay – both solid offers that made me think hard about my team’s direction. At the end of the day, I couldn’t give up Cecil Shorts’ four-year deal in exchange for RB2/flex depth with potential long-term upside. It’s likely I’ll be going strong to the hole at running back next year.
Tight End: This is the position I’m most likely to franchise a player in 2014. Vernon Davis and Julius Thomas’ deals will expire at year’s end and Thomas is playing at a level where it will be difficult for me not to tag him if Peyton Manning plays another year.
Quarterback: Jay Cutler is another candidate for franchising, but the 2014 QB class might draw my attention because it would be nice to have a player I could anchor. Still, three years at the early end of a QB’s career isn’t all that appealing when there should be a glut of talent at the position for me to acquire via free agency. If not, Cutler might be my hedge.
Defense: Seattle’s defense is the No.2 fantasy unit in this league and a long-shot candidate for a franchise tag.
Kickers: Robbie Gould and Sebastian Janikowski are solid at this point, but I’m effectively signing year-to-year leases when it comes to this position.

What about the rest of the league? Here are some notable teams:

Jason Wood went with an approach to sign core players at each position to long-term deals: Adrian Peterson (2 years), Aaron Rodgers (3 years), Demaryius Thomas (4 years), Reggie Bush (2 years), Eddie Lacy (3 years), Jared Cook (3 years), and Philip Rivers (2 years). Based on his wealth at running back and quarterback, I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s trading some of that depth in the next 12-18 months because as well as he’s scoring, his receiving corp is weak beyond Thomas. This might change as the Chargers find the best way to use Vincent Brown and/or the Vikings continue to use Matt Cassel, who has a rapport with Greg Jennings.

Sigmund Bloom also took the core player approach. His deals with Rob Gronkowski (4), LeSean McCoy (3), and Jordy Nelson (3) diversify his portfolio, but the attempt to capture a stranglehold on quality quarterbacks isn’t working as hoped with Sam Bradford (2) and Ben Roethlisberger (2), and Geno Smith (3). It still could, but Bloom might be hoping to trade one of these guys. It’s massive weight for his team – and the squad is performing well enough that he can win without a top-name signal caller. However he also appears stuck with Jonathan Stewart for a couple of years and Tavarres King at a three-year deal could be costly if he doesn’t hook up with another team and emerge. I wouldn’t be surprised if he franchises Alshon Jeffery at year’s end.

Bob Harris is set at QB (Matt Ryan – 3 years) and keeps Jamaal Charles for through 2014. However, Harris opted to structure his team with a lot of one-year deals and took a cautious approach towards long-term contracts this year – no four-year deals and only one three-year deal for a non-rookie. He could be a major player in free agency next year.

Bryan Fontaine may have Isaiah Pead and Brian Quick signed four-year and three-year deals weighing him down somewhat if the second-year runner and receivers continue to disappoint in the box score, but Fontaine does have multi-year deals with Dez Bryant (3), Larry Fitzgerald (2), DeMarco Murray (2), and Dwayne Bowe (2). With Jordan Cameron and Antonio Gates playing well, I won’t be shocked if one of these studs is franchised and Fontaine is looking hard for a quarterback when Matt Stafford and Jake Locker become free agents at year’s end. Considering Bryan has $10.6 million available before contracts expire, he’ll have a lot of bidding power to find the passer he wants.

Every month I’ll be writing something about the start-up keeper-contract-salary-auction league I’m running at Reality Sports Online. You can read more about RSO’s excellent league formathere. And if you want to start a league with your friends or join a league as an individual, you can earn a 20 percent discount when you use the promo code RSP20%OFF.

Reads Listens Views 10/5/2013

October 5, 2013 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

Listens – Miles Smiles “Jean Pierre”

[youtube=http://youtu.be/gSFD3WHI0Rw]

Better late than never, right? That’s how I see it when it comes to posting Reads Listens Views. This Saturday version of RLV includes the usual football/non-football web content that I’ve been reading (or saving for when time permits) and some commentary about three things that have nothing to do with football. If you’re new to the blog, I post RLV once a week with the mantra that you might not like everything I post today, but you’ll at least find one thing that made it worthwhile.

I’m also breaking out the fantasy mail bag.

Thank You

There was a time in my life where my work life was so busy I might have had eight hours in a 70-hour week to sit my desk and do focused work. Fast forward 15 years and the situation has flip-flopped. Either way, time whizzes by and my window to interact with readers has narrowed lately. Regardless of how these opportunities will ebb and flow I want to thank you for reading my work at the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, Footballguys, and Football Outsiders every week. If you’re new to my work, check out this blog and the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

If you want to know the ins and the outs of rookie skill players as early as April 1 with a level of detail that is more comprehensive than anything available then this 1200-page pre-draft publication is a must-buy. The RSP one-part 200-page draft magazine bookmarked for easy reading and other-part 1000-page tome that shows all the work to make the front half insightful: grading checklists for each player according to his position, a glossary that defines the grading system and each thing I score, and all my play-by-play notes on each player. I show my math for even the most diehard, nut-job – and I have plenty of them (they’re my kind of people).

You also get another 150-200 page post-draft document that updates rankings based on player fit with his new team, tiered dynasty rankings, and draft value analysis based on dynasty drafts. This RSP will help you this year, next year, and often times the year after in you dynasty drafts, re-drafts, and the waiver wire. Knowledge is power and you’ll be able to see the signs a little sooner when a player is poised for a breakout.

Past issues (2006-2012) are available for $9.95 apiece and I donate 10 percent of every RSP sale to Darkness To Light, a non-profit whose mission is to prevent and address sexual abuse in communities through training people to be aware of the dynamics, the stats, and how to help victims of this crime. As football fans who send our children to school, sports camps, churches-synagogues-mosques, it’s important that adults understand how to address this issue so they aren’t negligent (legally or morally) due to ignorance. Download the 2013 RSP Today

Wisconsin runner Melvin Gordon is a player I look forward to studying. Here's a nice snapshot of him in action. Photo by Han Shot First. — Wisconsin runner Melvin Gordon is a player I look forward to studying. Here’s a nice snapshot of him in action. Photo by Han Shot First.

Football Reads

Geno Smith: Browning Nagle or Peyton Manning? – Charles Kleinheksel lays it down.
Inside an NFL Locker Room at Halftime – Ryan Riddle.
Concussion Management: Return to Play Protocol – Jene Bramel explains what the NFL is doing (and in some respects not doing) when it comes to protocols for players to return from concussions.
Word of Muth: Making Linebackers Slow – How Philly’s offense made KC’s LB’s slow and why Jason Peters has to re-acclimate his hands.
Cian Fahey’s Film Room Breakdown on Le’Veon Bell and Reggie Bush

Non-Football Reads

October Should Be Breast Cancer Prevention Month – “The often miniscule donations linked to these products most often support charities that fund education campaigns encouraging mammograms (which aren’t very effective anyway1-3) or research into new treatments, but ignore the importance of the most powerful weapon women have in the fight against breast cancer — healthful lifestyle measures.” Amen.
TED Halts Any Talks About GMOs – Not sure what I think about the writer and his message, but I agree with the fundamental stance that corporate science is often flawed and corrupt.
What We Eat Affects Everything – This I do agree with and it’s why I think the first link was worth a post.
An Ingenius Home Built to Battle Tornados – You couldn’t pay my wife to live in Tornado Alley, but this home would be part of the agreement if one was struck.
An Ingenious 19-year-old Develops Plan to Clean Up Oceans in 5 Years – The theme for today is ingenious . . .
What Germans Can Teach Us About Privacy

Views – Bob Harris Interviewed by the University of Arizona

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Uf6JPArMUoQ]

Five years-old, but still fun to see Bob in action here. You should listen to Bob do his thing weekly at Sirius XM Fantasy Sports.

Commentary: Dexter And Our Government Shutdown.

A good thing gone way bad. Photo by Chesi Photos CC

If you didn’t know, I was a huge fan of the Showtime series Dexter. Like most Dexter fans, I became disenchanted with the final seasons of the show. However, I hung in there to the end – grousing about its decline every week. I have made the argument that the show’s finale was a good attempt that was doomed to fail because everything that came before it didn’t set the table well enough to give the last episode any sense of emotional credibility.

I believe Dexter went south after Deb caught Dexter in the act of murdering the Doomsday Killer. There shouldn’t have been a season where Deb tries to do some half-ass, homemade intervention that unravels to the extent that she gets sucked into his lifestyle and her life spirals to the gutter.

One of several ways that the show could have continued on a strong path would have been for Dexter to flee: the scene of the crime, Deb, and Miami. Fans would have preferred watching dual plot lines of Dexter creating a new life and identity in another state while Deb wages her own private manhunt for her brother.

Imagine Dexter and his son in a place as opposite from Miami as one can get trying to reinvent himself. Perhaps he encounters the doctor who helped create the Code and he meets a woman and falls in love like he does in the actual seasons towards the end. The difference would be that Dexter and the doctor come to the realization that he really wasn’t as doomed as the doc and his dad Harry presumed.

It would have been fascinating to see Dexter come to the realization that he was more human than he allowed himself to believe, doesn’t feel the compulsion to kill, and changes his life. Then the climax of the show could be Deb finding and confronting Dexter and the fallout from it. I believe this is what the show was trying to do, but the development of this type of plot line was so rushed that no audience could suspend disbelief.

I would have also liked watching Deb arrest Dexter and the final two seasons be the investigations that link (or fail to link) him to the Bay Harbor Butcher murders, the arraignment, and the trial. Introduce the psychologist who taught Harry and Dexter the Code and involve her in the trial or sanity hearings.

Watch Deb unravel as the public pressures from the trial and her role as the captain of homicide mount. What happens to her relationship with her brother? Does she come to understand and try to help him escape? Does she grow to despise him and cut all ties? Does she continue to have this great sense of ambivalence that destroys her and ultimately Dexter as he watches it helpless?

What about the rest of homicide who worked with him? Do they try some crazy under the radar deal where Dexter gets life in prison and uses his Code to assist the city and ultimately the FBI to track down other serial killers?

Whether Dexter is sent to a mental hospital or sentenced to death, seasons with a trial and the aftermath could have been great TV. Instead, Showtime asked the producers to rush its development process so they could piggyback Ray Donovan to the series at the cost of quality writing.

We need to make elected public service really be public service. This requires greater sacrifice that they're making. Far greater. Photo by AC Flick. — We need to make elected public service really be public service. This requires greater sacrifice that they’re making. Far greater. Photo by AC Flick.

While I’m playing all-powerful, armchair quarterback, let’s look at this government shutdown. The fact is that private healthcare pays huge sums to our legislative body. If we truly want our representatives to be public servants, there needs to be a better way to enforce this commitment to the public and not private enterprise.

Think of the military. The men and women in our armed forces don’t have the same freedoms as the general public while they are in active service. If you ask me, the grand motivation for most Congressmen and women is money. While there is some degree of transparency with the personal finances of our public servants, I think the it would be worth exploring some way of requiring elected officials in the legislative and executive branches to give up basic rights as citizens while serving.

Pay them higher salaries like other developed countries do, give them great benefits when they retire from public service, but also make public service a real sacrifice. Eliminate any outside donation practices and election campaigns. Voting may be a right, but it’s also a privilege – raise the bar and force us to study the issues and watch debates. In 20 years, the public would become as savvy about debates and issues as they are about the pistol and the shotgun in football.

Require all public servants to live in public servant housing, use public servant based transportation, and require them to give up a large enough degree of financial freedom and decision-making in their lives as well as public privacy during this service. It may sound harsh, but if you want people who are truly willing serve our country and not themselves, ask them to make real sacrifices along the lines of our military – and then make the standard higher on a day-to-day level. Look at it this way, they aren’t putting their lives on the line like the military – at least ask them to put their freedoms on hold to ensure they aren’t corrupted by money.

Fantasy Mailbag

Would you ride or die this season with Wilson? Andrew Brown out. Photo by Football Schedule. — Would you ride or die this season with Wilson? If you chose to ride or die, you don’t bench him versus Philly, do you? Photo by Football Schedule.

Question I: From Shaun Higgins: I have a trade question in a dynasty league. The point system is a standard league with 1/2 ppr, we start two RBs. The following are my RBs:

Ray Rice
Frank Gore
Bilal Powell
Rashard Mendenhall
Shane Vereen
Brandon Bolden

I have been offered Bernard Pierce and a 2014 2nd round pick for Bilal Powell and my 2014 3rd round pick. I am concerned with Baltimore’s offense and Pierce’s output this year. Also, I’m concerned with how Powell will produce once Ivory is healthy (for however long that might last) and Goodson comes back. What are your thoughts long-term on both backs? Do you think this is a good move?

Shaun – I think the Baltimore ground game will get addressed with the help of Eugene Monroe, the tackle the Ravens acquired from Jacksonville this week. However, this helps Rice far more than Pierce, because the Ravens are committing more to Rice than they are his backup. Whether it’s in Baltimore or elsewhere, I think Pierce has a chance to develop into a fantasy RB2 in 2-3 years. Powell’s time to demonstrate he’s RB2-caliber for the next 2-3 years is now. Neither player possesses jackpot, long-term RB1 upside. I think Powell is the more versatile player and Pierce is the more power runner.

However for you, this deal comes down to two factors:

A) Is your team strong at other positions and you’re contending now? If so, Powell is better for you this year.

B) Is your team struggling and unlikely to contend this year or next? If so, Pierce gives you continuity with Rice and you gain a second-round pick, which could provide you more RB depth.

Question II: From Nathan Smith – Should I start Roddy White, Giovani Bernard, or Kenbrell Thompkins over David Wilson this week as one of two flexes in a league with this lineup?

QB	Michael Vick, Phi QB		@NYG	Sun 1:00	4	91.5	22.9	14.4	24	30th	53.4	100.0	+0
RB	Ray Rice, Bal RB		@Mia	Sun 1:00	39	32.8	8.2	2.3	8.2	30th	87.0	100.0	+0
RB	Trent Richardson, Ind RB		Sea	Sun 1:00	19	53.6	13.4	15.7	17.9	9th	100.0	100.0	+0
RB/WR	David Wilson, NYG RB		Phi	Sun 1:00	50	26	6.5	12.9	11.7	26th	67.0	97.4	-0.6
WR	A.J. Green, Cin WR		NE	Sun 1:00	10	79.6	19.9	13.6	19	6th	100.0	100.0	+0
WR	Josh Gordon, Cle WR		Buf	W 37-24	41	47.3	11.8	12	17.1	31st	35.8	98.7	+2.6
WR/TE	Brandon Marshall, Chi WR Q		NO	Sun 1:00	8	81	20.3	18.3	19.5	3rd	96.9	100.0	+0
TE	Jordan Cameron, Cle TE		Buf	W 37-24	2	100.8	25.2	26.3	21.2	7th	83.8	96.9	+6.4
D/ST	Falcons D/ST D/ST		NYJ	Mon 8:30	26	17.1	4.3	-1.3	8.8	29th	8.2	13.4	+3
K	Nick Novak, SD K		@Oak	Sun 11:35	5	44.1	11.0	13.9	9.9	14th	12.3	14.9	+7.6
BENCH			WK 5		2013 SEASON				WEEK 5
SLOT	PLAYER, TEAM POS	ACTION	OPP	STATUS ET	PRK	PTS	AVG	LAST	PROJ	OPRK	%ST	%OWN	+/-
Bench	Doug Martin, TB RB		BYE		13	62.9	15.7	12.2	—	—	66.0	100.0	+0
Bench	Giovani Bernard, Cin RB		NE	Sun 1:00	16	61.6	15.4	15.2	17.4	13th	63.4	100.0	+0
Bench	Andrew Luck, Ind QB		Sea	Sun 1:00	7	85.6	21.4	20.5	14.2	4th	38.2	100.0	+0
Bench	Kenbrell Thompkins, NE WR Q		@Cin	Sun 1:00	25	63.1	15.8	26.3	13.2	16th	33.7	82.8	+28.6
Bench	DeAndre Hopkins, Hou WR		@SF

I thought White looked good from what I watched. He was officially targeted 9 times, but I would say that about half of those should not be counted as targets. Passes overthrown by a lot, or in the dirt. He had about 5 or 6 catchable balls maybe and he did well.

So I traded for him. I was offered Roddy for Julius Thomas and since I am also a Cameron owner, I took the offer. Wondering what you think about the fact that Tennessee destroyed the Jets last week in the passing game, and if you think ATL can do the same at home. I think Roddy is due for a game.

Nathan, I thought White looked better, but not good. He still lacks the burst and strength/stability in the ankle to play his true game, which is about precise timing routes in tight coverage. Teams are still playing off White and the Falcons are still jerry-rigging its offense to use him. Until White can practice fully during the week leading to a game, I’d bench him. In fact, White suffered a setback in that game, so I’d avoid him this week. Thompkins is gaining ground, but he’ll be facing a pretty good set of cornerbacks. I think Bernard offers the most PPR upside, but he and Thompkins are pretty even.

However, I’m not sure I’d bench Wilson against the Eagles defense. If you’re going to stay patient with Wilson, this is the week to show it and use him. The Giants cut Da’Rell Scott and Brandon Jacobs hasn’t looked as good as Wilson. I’d go upside with your lineup and continue to start Wilson.

Question III: How hard would you be looking to upgrade from Vick in 14 team redraft?

Rodgers owner is 0-4 with all kinds of holes. I have a bench with DeAngelo, Powell, Mathews, Mike Williams and Blackmon to try to pepper into a 2 for 1 or 3 for 1 deal.

If you can ply Rodgers from an owner with the combo of Vick and 1-2 of those players that you’re not using, do it.

Listens – A Night in Tunisia

[youtube=http://youtu.be/baMsQeQpUvw]

Futures at Football Outsiders: Texas A&M OT Jake Matthews

October 5, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft

What does the Matthews family have in common with the Marsalis family? Generational excellence at a craft. Photo by mll.

Futures: Texas A&M OT Jake Matthews

By Matt Waldman

I heard a great story about Lawrence Taylor this week from my friend Sigmund Bloom. Thanks to NFL Films, the Hall of Fame linebacker and “trash talk” go together like K-Tel and “greatest hits” – complete with a low-budget, late-night commercial featuring a scrolling list of titles for your listening pleasure:

“Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, stick – you mine. You mine, baby!”

“C’mon baby, you can’t pussy-foot it up in there, you gotta run it.”

“Homeboy, you can’t play that stuff in here; you’re gonna have to go outside.”

“Let’s go out there like a bunch of crazed dogs and have some fun!”

“Son, you gotta do better than this…”

Remember, this is Lawrence Taylor/K-Tel. If you want to pay good money for trash talk, order from the Shannon Sharpe Smack Soundtrack. At the end of the day, the talk means little if a player can’t walk it, and Taylor could walk it in his sleep. Well, with the exception of the week a rookie tackle let Taylor tie himself into a mental knot.

It was early in the game. Taylor stood opposite the rookie tackle, wasting no time dishing it to the offensive lineman.

“Rookie, I’m going to beat you to the left,” drawls Taylor, standing over what he had to think was fresh fish. Without missing a beat, the tackle shot back with a question.

“Which left? Your left or my left?”

Taylor, caught off-guard by the serious tone and the nature of the question, paused for a split-second –- just long enough to think about it -– as the center snapped the ball. That hesitation was all it took for the first-year tackle to dispatch of Taylor on the play. Sure, Taylor probably got the best of this rookie several times in that game, but the interaction underscores the point that offensive linemen are often some of the most intelligent players on the field.

One of the best of these quick-thinking, quick-footed behemoths in college football today is Texas A&M tackle Jake Matthews. Yes, he’s from the Matthews family that includes Grandpa Clay Sr., Uncle Clay Jr., Father Bruce, and Cousin Clay III. We’re talking over 50 years of NFL experience -– 18 of them Pro Bowl seasons. It’s like a functional, football version of the Jacksons –- down to Casey Matthews as its LaToya.

Jokes aside, the fact that Casey even earned an NFL opportunity speaks to the talent of a football family whose best musical parallel is the Marsalis clan. If there’s a compelling argument for teams to mention “bloodlines” when filing a scouting report, the Matthews and Long families would be Exhibits A and B of a lengthier list of NFL bloodlines than you may imagine.

It may seem like an imposing standard for Jake Matthews to follow his father Bruce in to the NFL –- and it’s probably something we’ll never learn until his career is over –- but examining the Aggie lineman’s potential solely on the basis of physical talent, technical skill, and conceptual acumen for the game, the younger

Matthews has a strong shot of doing something his dad did 30 years ago: earning a top-10 selection in the NFL Draft.

Although Matthews hasn’t done enough as a left tackle to provide quality footage at this spot, there is one particular opponent he faced last year as a right tackle who is a good test for anyone on the left side, college or NFL. That would be Barkevious Mingo, who, like Lawrence Taylor, displays rare athleticism and relentlessness off the edge as an outside linebacker. Even as a right tackle last year, Matthews’ matchup with Mingo at LSU and the athletes at Alabama are performances that any NFL prospect at left tackle would be proud to have in his portfolio.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Blocking: Alabama WR Kevin Norwood

October 1, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

Orange with pepper? Might as well watch a wide receiver in college football block. Right? Photo by Robert Tewart.

To the casual college football viewer, wide receivers and blocking go together like orange slices with pepper or french fries dipped in a Frosty. Both seem odd, but they work. A receiver who does his best to make the position and the task fit together Alabama’s Kevin Norwood.

I can think of dozens of receivers at the college level that I’ve seen who are better blockers. However, sometimes there’s a play worth showing because it’s instructive. This run block in the Texas A&M game is a good example of gauging the correct angle. And football at its best is the ability to anticipate and address the angles of the opposition.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/38aI1BhEztU]

This is a great angle by Norwood. Watching the play at full speed you might think he overran his target. But if Norwood overran the safety, how could he make the correct decision to turn the defender to the sideline without seeing the hole that his running back chose?

As with any play call, Norwood knows the general direction of this run and understands that his job is to seal the defender to the outside. The Crimson Tide receiver takes an angle to the safety’s inside shoulder to force the defender on an outside path. If the defender beats Norwood’s block to the outside, there’s a greater chance he’ll overrun the path to the ball carrier.

If the defender doesn’t get outside, Norwood has an easier task of turning the safety to the sideline and driving the defender backwards. This is a good example of leverage by body position in the run game.

By no means is this a perfect block. Norwood is overextended as he makes the turn. His pads and head are down and too far ahead of his hips. At this point, he has lost control of his form and his body. The safety should have been able to grab Norwood by the pads and rip the receiver outside and then take an inside path to the ball carrier. Instead, the safety tries to throw Norwood inside towards the ball carrier.

While inventive, the safety also has to improve his skills at shedding blocks because this decision is the difference between a third and short and a first down.

As for those of you wondering about Norwood as an NFL prospect, I’ll have more about him in the coming months. I will tell you that he has the athleticism and baseline skills against tight coverage to compete for a roster spot. The key for Norwood will be consistency in the passing game and effort like this in the run game. Compared to the pack of receivers draft analysts will lump Norwood, the Alabama senior is ahead of the game in this respect.