Date Archives November 2013

Revis vs. Megatron: The Winning Strategy of Turning an Island Into A Peninsula

I can’t wait for the day that Darrelle Revis’ knee is at full strength so he can reprise Revis Island against any receiver. His assignment on Calvin Johnson reveals that he’s not there yet. However, his performance on Sunday is a story of a great football player with new physical limitations and his coaching staff making adjustments to win the war against one of these most dangerous pitch-and-catch combos in the NFL.

The opening narrative is a first half where we see our hero and his team forced to concede that (at this moment in the NFL) no man is an island. No press man for Revis against Johnson here. If anything, this slant off play action is a good illustration of why we all drool over elite offensive athletes.  Get a cannon-armed quarterback who can throw the ball with laser precision to a gigantic receiver with track star speed and there are some routes just impossible for even the best cornerbacks in football to defend if the offense draws them up right.

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Revis in off coverage is in position to read Matt Stafford and then accordingly. Based on the position of the safety on this play, it appears Tampa is anticipating a run or a short route and Detroit’s pistol look adds to that speculation. At the snap below, Revis eye-balls Stafford as Johnson drives off the line.

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Ever the great technician, Johnson’s release has the look of a player running a deep streak rather than a slant. His shoulders are over his knees and he’s pumping his arms like a sprinter in the drive phase at the start of the race. Imagine being a rookie and watching Johnson coming at you like this. Even with an understanding of offensive tendencies, it would be difficult not to see Johnson driving off the line and wet your pants.

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Revis holds his water like the old pro he is. He’s more concerned with a potential exchange with Stafford and Reggie Bush. Once Stafford emerges from the exchange point with the ball, Revis knows it’s time to act.

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However, the play action fake affords Johnson enough time that Revis is already too late. The Buccaneers defender would have to anticipate this throw and already be driving to the break point to cut off Johnson. Even that early of a break presents a quandary for Revis, because Johnson and Stafford could read the corner’s early jump and turn the route up the sideline. While doubtful that they make this adjustment, the precision of this short route can force a lesser defender to take a wild chance and create this kind of big-play opportunity.

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Revis drives on the route with an initial angle that looks promising. But as physical as the Buccaneers corner has been throughout his career, he’s at a disadvantage here.

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The pass is on-time and hits Johnson in stride. The receiver does a find job of keeping his back Revis to shield the ball and force the corner to rebound off Megatron like a fly hitting a windshield.

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Johnson doesn’t even break stride as Revis is eating turf.

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Revis can only look on from the ground as Johnson gains 18 yards, turning a 1st and 20 into a 2nd and 2.

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Take heart Revis, the safety takes a five-yard ride on the back of the Lions’ receiver.

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In fact, he’s lucky there’s help over top or Johnson recovers his balance and turns this 18-yard gain into a something much longer.  It’s the type of play that Lions used to set up Revis later in the quarter for a longer target. There’s no play action here, but Johnson takes a jab step inside to simulate a slant with the hope Revis biting just enough that once Johnson breaks up the sideline Revis will have to turn and run, giving Johnson room to break back to the ball on a short route.

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Here’s the initial dip inside from Johnson.

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While I can’t see Revis’ initial reaction, it’s doubtful a corner playing off man coverage is giving seven yards of space to his receiver 12 yards down field. This is Revis recovering his bearings and breaking back to the receiver. Revis’ explosiveness and change of direction is good enough to start, but not yet good enough to hang with the likes of Johnson. Fortunately, the Buccaneers make an adjustment that turns the tide of this tightly contested game in the fourth quarter.

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The difference? The Buccaneers take Revis off Johnson and land-lock the new corner with a safety over top. The Lions decide to test this coverage with a skinny post to Johnson.

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Johnson takes an inside release, but the corner also slides inside and gives chase in a trail position knowing that he has the safety over top.

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When the corner jumps inside, he gives Johnson a little resistance to stall the break inside and help the safety gain position over top. It has a feel of Cover 2, but the corner doesn’t just pass Johnson off to the safety.

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The Bucs’ corner continues down field and then breaks inside to undercut Stafford’s throw.

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The corner tips the pass over the outstretched Johnson and forces a 3rd and 11. It foreshadows a game-sealing play with the same coverage with less than a minute left. Once again, this corner is tight at the line with a safety over top and he influences Johnson’s release to the inside.

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The corner bumps Johnson inside and rides the receiver up the seam for the first 10-15 yards before Johnson earns enough separation – which he know doesn’t have to be much – for Stafford to target his receiver.

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Let’s focus on Stafford for a moment here. If he hangs onto the football another half-second, Adrian Clayborn, who has been difficult to contain for much of his game, delivers a hit.

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The inimitable Lions quarterback delivers the ball while retreating from the pressure in his face and manages to throw a 38-yard strike with excellent placement to Johnson working back to the football.

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Normally, Johnson secures this ball and if he doesn’t score, the Lions have three shots to do so before tying the game and sending it into overtime. However, we are talking about the Detroit Lions. This team’s development is similar to that of a teenager – lots of promise and physical skill at or near its prime, but moments of awkwardness at the most inopportune times.

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Even Johnson isn’t immune as the hit from the safety pops the ball loose and into the corner’s arms like a gift from above.

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Johnson may have won the battle with Revis, but the Buccaneers won the war thanks to an individual and team understanding its limitations in the face of a superior opponent.

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The post-script to his story is Stafford. I have already profiled the Lions quarterback in this blog, but I need to underscore just how unfortunate this talented passer was in this game. It wasn’t just Calvin Johnson’s failure to secure this pass that killed the Lions’ chances to win this game.

Here’s a play-action throw that Stafford puts on the money despite throwing from an unbalanced position. His intended receiver is Kris Durham who is stacked behind his teammate to the right.

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Stafford gives a short sell of the play fake to Joique Bell and begins his drop. Note Adrian Clayborn on the right edge (No.94-long hair).

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Clayborn finishes his drop, scans the field, and nothing is open. Clayborn swats at his defender and works inside.

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Clayborn gets inside position to split two defenders on a path straight to Stafford, who is still holding onto the football three seconds after the snap.

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Stafford feels the pressure, slides right, and delivers the ball 33 yards to the right sideline on a comeback leaning like that ancient building in Rome.

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The placement isn’t perfect, but it’s only where Durham can make the catch – low and away. This is where I want to see quarterbacks err with their accuracy when they do.

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Durham, with a chance to help Detroit extend its lead with at least getting his team into field goal range, cannot maintain possession when he hits the ground. While it’s a difficult reception to make when working back to the passer and dropping to a knee to get under the ball, it’s the type of play NFL receivers make.

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But if you think that’s an unfortunate play, this completion on 3rd and 11 with 5:43 in the fourth quarter rivals the game-losing play by Calvin Johnson. Tampa sends five at Stafford with Durham as the single receiver at the bottom of the screen.

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Detroit gives Stafford a clean pocket as the quarterback locates the single coverage and delivers the deep out to Durham.

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Give Stafford the kind of time that Mike Glennon earned in this game and these plays should be unstoppable.

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This 20-yard deep out is cake for Stafford. It arrives over the receivers inside shoulder and well ahead of the defensive back. The velocity on the pass also ensures that Durham has time and space to get both feet in bounds. This throw and the last play I showed are the type of plays Stafford made at Georgia so often and helped him earn such a high draft day grade.

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Durham, who gains control of the ball early enough inside the boundary, decides to turn the play up field for more yardage. It’s a great call, but note how he carries the ball in the frame below.

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This type of ball security is a bad habit that I’ve seen from many young receivers and it’s a habit that Durham should have broken years ago. New York Giants receiver Jerrell Jernigan was a favorite prospect of many, but one of the things that really bothered me about Jernigan – as fine of a play maker he was at Troy – was that he carried the ball with both hands in front of his stomach like this. I describe it as a player running with the ball like he’s executing the option. Jernigan had far too many fumbles at Troy because of this style of ball security.

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Durham heads up field, but the trailing cornerback takes a desperate swipe at the receiver, finds the ball, and in what seems like the luck of the Lions in recent years, the ball does not bounce out of bounds, but careens towards the flat.

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The Buccaneers field this fumble and preserve its lead, setting up one last drive where Stafford hits Johnson on a beautiful pass only to watch his superstar receiver get victimized on a smash and grab by two rogue seafarers from Tampa.

For more analysis of offensive skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Mike Glennon Preview

Is QB Mike Glennon a draft-not-to-lose pick? If he goes in the first two rounds, I think so. Photo by Akulawolf.
Is QB Mike Glennon a draft-not-to-lose pick? If he goes in the first two rounds, I think so. Photo by Akulawolf.

I’m cautiously optimistic about Mike Glennon’s game thus far. He’s making sound decisions for the Buccaneers and when under heavy pressure, he’s doing a better job of throwing the ball away or taking the sack rather than throwing the ball up for grabs. However, the reason Glennon is performing so well is the team doing a great job of its play calling and giving the rookie time to make decisions at relaxed pace compared to many NFL passers. In essence the Buccaneers are a great fit for a play-not-to-lose style. Here’s a taste of the breakdown of Mike Glennon and why he’s been successful this season. The rest you can read as a Footballguys subscriber.

Why Mike Glennon Is Succeeding

I’m cautiously optimistic about Mike Glennon’s game thus far. He’s making sound decisions for the Buccaneers and when under heavy pressure, he’s doing a better job of throwing the ball away or taking the sack rather than throwing the ball up for grabs. However, the reason Glennon is performing so well is the team doing a great job of its play calling and giving the rookie time to make decisions at relaxed pace compared to many NFL passers.

Greg Cosell made headlines about saying Glennon was ahead of Robert Griffin III in his development, but it’s really no surprise. Griffin is playing in an offense that makes far different demands than the traditional pocket game that Glennon has always used and without a summer of practice, Griffin’s development has stalled a year.

The combination of the pass protection, play action game, and smart play calls according to down and distance are helping Glennon use his big arm and decent mobility. Yet, I don’t want to downplay Glennon. If he can continue to make smart decisions during the next 2-3 seasons of his development, he has shown enough for the Buccaneers to invest in him as a long-term starter.

The pervading theme for Glennon is time and space. Give the rookie these two resources and he has the basic skills – and a fine arm – to move an offense. Here’s a 3rd-and-six pass where the Buccaneers begin in an 10 personnel 3×1 receiver set and shift running back Brian Leonard to the trips side tight to the formation. The aim is to flood the Lions’ zone, create a breakdown in coverage, and generate a wide-open receiver.

The offensive line does a fine job of keeping the pocket clean and providing a great deal of space for Glennon to survey the field and step into any throw.

This is not the kind of pocket space we’re typically seeing in Washington or locales like Jacksonville or Pittsburgh. Give a quarterback this much space and he better find an open receiver or at least make a pinpoint throw to lead a receiver to open space.

The amount of time that the Tampa offensive line provides Glennon on this play allows the rookie quarterback to wait for Tim Wright, the rookie tight end, to finish his stem and break on a deeper in route. Wright, a slow possession receiver at Rutgers, has average speed for a move tight end.

Note the room Glennon has to step into this throw. No defender is in Glennon’s path to force the quarterback to alter his stride and follow-through. Plus, there’s a huge passing lane in the middle of the line for the quarterback to deliver the ball.

It’s a picture-perfect delivery that looks like something seen at a football practice, not an NFL pocket. The pass travels 21 yards on a rope to Wright.

Boiler Room: Michigan WR Jeremy Gallon

Can Jeremy Gallon follow in the footsteps of Steve Smith? Similar dimensions, but big shoes . . . Photo by PDA Photo
Can Jeremy Gallon follow in the footsteps of Steve Smith? Similar dimensions, but big shoes . . . Photo by PDA Photo

Footballguys.com Bob Henry is one of the best fantasy writers I know and someone I’m thankful to have as a friend of mine. We became fast friends after sharing our love for the old AFC Central; Funk, Soul, and R&B music; and all the varieties of Asian cuisine.

Bob – a huge Michigan fan – is my unofficial area scout for the Big Ten. At points throughout the season, he sends me word of players he likes and we compare notes in January. One of his mentions this year is Wolverine receiver Jeremy Gallon – a player whose style he likened to Carolina Panthers  leader Steve Smith.

Listed at 5’8″, 183 lbs., Gallon matches Smith’s physical dimensions, but he has a stretch of road ahead of him as difficult as Russia’s Trans-Siberian Highway if he hopes to be mentioned in the same breath as the 13-year NFL veteran. Still, I think Gallon plays bigger than his size and has a flair for the dramatic on the field.

A series that I started last spring at the RSP blog is The Boiler RoomOne of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play. Yet, if I need a play to add to the highlight reel that will help a team make a decision where to slot Jeremy Gallon on its board, this 62-yard touchdown is my nomination. This is a 1st-and-10 with 6:00 in the first quarter from a 12 personnel weak side twin receiver set. Gallon is at the right hash stacked behind his teammate. Notre Dame has one safety deep on this play.

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Gallon runs up the right hash on a seam route and then sits in the middle of a wide open zone 15 yards past the line of scrimmage. He catches the ball close to his body and turns inside the hash with the nearest defender five yards behind him. The next closest defender to Gallon is 10 yards over top and outside the right hash.

Gallon gains 10 yards up the middle through a huge hole, jukes outside the defender at the left hash and then stumbles towards the safety over top just as the defender he juked outside wraps the receiver at the waist. Here’s where Gallon displays the kind of balance that hints at Steve Smith’s game. He spins inside the safety, shakes the defender wrapping him, and then makes the safety miss all at the same time. The Wolverines receiver then dips inside a second safety.

Within a snap of the fingers, Gallon has beaten three defenders and regains his balance as he runs towards the right hash. By the time he accelerates past a fourth defender, Gallon is in the clear for the final 20 yards to the end zone.

Gallon runs like a kick return specialist and this is a job he can compete for immediately in the NFL. The receiver displays a strong downhill mentality in the open field and doesn’t waste motion or slow his pace trying to make defenders miss like so many quick-twitch, agile receivers. His move to avoid three defenders was not a display of power; it was excellent balance to maintain his footing,  spin through contact to limit the impact, and terrific protection of the football under his left arm.

We know he has the athleticism to get deep in single coverage, but I like that Gallon is so quick to find the open zone in the middle of the field. He may never become Steve Smith, but if he can demonstrate the smarts to match his toughness and athleticism, he might become a dynamite NFL slot receiver in a league. At worst, I think he’s a more explosive player in the mold of Harry Douglas or Doug Baldwin.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures at Football Outsiders: FSU DB Lamarcus Joyner

Tyrann Mathieu might inspire an NFL team to consider Lamarcus Joyner in a similar role. Photo by wxcasterphx.
Tyrann Mathieu might inspire an NFL team to consider Lamarcus Joyner in a similar role. Photo by wxcasterphx.

If Tryann Mathieu’s play officially announces the arrival of a new breed of safety, Lamarcus Joyner’s use in the NFL may become the next step in the evolution of the position.

In 1998, Peter King penned a feature for Sports Illustrated where he crowned the position of NFL quarterback as “The Toughest Job In Sports”. King delivered a convincing assessment that served as the media’s coronation of the quarterback as sports royalty. Anyone who watched pro football between 1960 and 1999 will have little argument that King was right. But times have changed.

In 1999, the NFL instituted the Tuck Rule after the fateful play involvingTom Brady and Charles Woodson that decided the AFC Championship game. In 2004, the league increased enforcement of the illegal contact rule after Bill Belichick’s strategy to manhandle Colts wide receivers at the line of scrimmage limited Indianapolis’ offense to a lowly 14 points and ruined a greatly anticipated shootout between Brady and Peyton Manning in the 2003 conference championship.

And in 2008, pro football modified its “below the knee” rule after a Week 1 season ending hit on Brady subverted the most exciting offense in football. It has now made the defensive secondary the second-class citizens of NFL positions.

Compared to the quarterbacks King wrote about in 1998 – not to mention the decades of signal callers who undoubtedly inspired King to write about the position – today’s signal callers are A-list sports celebrities with silver spoons in their mouths. They are the precious investments of the NFL’s high-scoring, highly profitable brand that inspires year-round coverage and a thriving fantasy sports industry.

(Just a quick tangent for those who care more about the quality and fairness of the game over its branding: One way to give defenses more equal footing in today’s game would be to alter or repeal the illegal contact rule and enforce pass interference violations with a 15-yard penalty and automatic first down rather than making it a spot foul.)

Despite the NFL creating a class system on the playing field, quarterback remains the most technically complex position to master in sport – especially now that it has to be a PR-savvy role within the organization, adding to its difficulty. However, when confining the difficulty of the position to the field of play, the position of safety now gives quarterback a run for its money.

Safeties have to be as versatile athletes as move tight ends. They have to cover the deep and intermediate zones from sideline to sideline with excellent range.

Whether it’s an undersized, water bug of a slot receiver or a power forward posing as a tight end, the safety has to display the athleticism to handle both. And not only do these defenders still have to play the run like a fourth or fifth linebacker and blitz the quarterback, but they also have to do it all in a league where the rules governing the primary role of their position have been engineered against their productivity and the enforcement process has become arbitrary.

The NFL quarterback is the blue blood of the playing field. He’s a lot like the senator’s son who goes from intern to COO to commissioner of a sports empire. In contrast, the NFL safety is kid from the wrong side of the railroad tracks. On appearances alone, the idea of a 5’8” safety is not only an underdog within the hierarchy of the league, he’s beneath the underdog.

But there’s some Darwinism at play in the wilds of that 6400-square yards of turf and no matter how much football convention tries to squash individuality, it never succeeds in doing so. If anything, it creates new opportunities for individuality to make a game changing impact. Upon deeper examination, it’s possible that the smaller, quicker, scat-back-sized safety might be the next new answer to counter the dominance of the forward pass.

Reads Listens Views 11/23/2013

The RSP is to draft analysis as Matt Forte is to NFL running backs - versatile, underrated, and appreciated by those in the know. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.
The RSP is to draft analysis as Matt Forte is to NFL running backs – versatile, underrated, and appreciated by those in the know. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.

Thanks: 

New to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog? Once a week I post links to all kinds of content I’m checking out. You may not like everything here, but if you like at least one link then I’ve done my job. If you don’t like anything I post here ever, then I can’t help you. But seriously, thank you for following the RSP blog. It’s my way of giving you a preview of the type of detail and insight that you can expect from my annual publication devoted to analysis of skill position prospects.

Available every April 1, the RSP is part online draft magazine filled with rankings, draft trends analysis, position-specific skill breakdowns for every player , overrated/underrated, and multi-dimensional player comparisons that actually make sense. And if that’s not enough for you, I show my work. I include every grading checklist and play-by-play note I take on the prospects I study for this publication and provide a glossary that defines my grading system and the criteria that I used to rate players.

All though the 120-200 pages of the draft magazine is sufficient for most, the reports make the RSP well over 1000 pages of information. It makes the RSP an excellent long-term resource to use when those third and fourth-year players “come out of nowhere” and begin to make their mark with an NFL roster or if you simply want to learn more about the game.

Since the RSP has a comprehensive set of embedded bookmarks, the publication is easy to navigate and has the feel of a magazine, but the insight of a reference book you’ll refer to long after the draft.

Plus, I provide a post-draft update the week after the draft that includes rankings weighted more to current team fit, early fantasy average draft values, fantasy value analysis based on draft data and my rankings, and a comprehensive fantasy cheat sheet. Most of my readers say this is worth the price of the RSP alone.

Download this year’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio for $19.95 or past publications (2006-2012) for $9.95. I donate 10 percent of every sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit that provides community training to prevent and address sexual abuse so our society can do a better job of handling – and hopefully preventing – what happened at institutions like Penn State, because it’s not just a problem isolated in Happy Valley.

If you enjoy this blog , want to learn more about the game, earn an advantage in your fantasy leagues, and want to give a little back to society while supporting the efforts of someone who is doing the work so you don’t have to, download the RSP. I’m confident you’ll discover that the value exceeds the hype, which I know is not common these days.

Listens – The Dark Sorcerer of Piano With a Great Band

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Herbie Hancock, Al Foster, Buster Williams, and Greg Osby playing Wayne Shorter’s excellent composition Footprints. Hancock is the master of creating musical moods that are soundtracks for the imagination. As far as drummers go, I’m a huge fan of Al Foster because he’s responsiveness and interaction with his fellow musicians is fantastic. Just a suggestion for those of you seeking a different way to spend quality time with someone you love:

Clear a space in the middle of a room in front of a TV and pile it with cushions and pillows or even a mattress dragged into the room loaded with pillows and blankets. Turn the TV onto one of those channels that films exotic locales or hook up your computer to your wide-screen and run a slide show filled with hundreds of photos of sights and nature (see below) from around the world and put on some music without lyrics. It could be Herbie, classical music, house music, whatever will give you and your special someone a quiet visual-aural adventure of the imagination.

Here’s some more Herbie Hancock with Michael Brecker. If my wife and I decide to have more children and we have a son, “Brecker” is on the short list of names.

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And one more that I’d find just right with the vibe below . . .

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Views – National Geographic Photo Contest 2013

Non-Football Reads

Football Reads

Listens: The Mix – Northern Soul Radio

 Coming Soon at the RSP

  • Later today: A Futures on DB Lamarcus Joyner  (what a fun player to watch).
  • Borrowing an insight from Lance Zierlein about J.J. Watt and illustrating it with photos.
  • Analysis of Michiagn WR Jeremy Gallon.
  • Perhaps a look at FSU RB Devonta Freeman.

Reality Sports Online Writers’ League Update

There are a fair share of Jimmy Graham-sized When Jimmy Graham and Peyton Manning are in your lineup, you don't need much more - ask Jim Day.  Photo by Football Schedule.
When Jimmy Graham and Peyton Manning are in your lineup, you don’t need much more – ask Jim Day. Photo by Football Schedule.

Reality Sports Online Writers’ League Update:

November is almost over and it’s time to provide an RSO update on the 14-team league I started with some of the best fantasy writers I know and enjoy competing against. With the playoffs three weeks away, all but one team is still technically alive. Here’s a quick rundown of the state of the league:

Playoff Bound (For Now)

Jim Day is atop the Grinders Division with an 8-3 record and the third in total points scored. Peyton Manning and Jimmy Graham have carried his offense with workmanlike help from Frank Gore and a mid-season boost from Zac Stacy. With the likes of Darren Sproles, Joique Bell, and Mike James on his bench, Day has one of the deepest core of backs in the league. His wide receivers aren’t bad – Eric Decker, Kendall Wright, and Marques Colston, but you’d have to think he’d be trying to deal one of his runners for a wideout – especially when Russell Wilson and E.J. Manuel comprise his QB depth chart. I guess if it ain’t broke, he’s not gonna fix it. Although he could miss the playoffs if he loses two in a row, it’s far more likely he’ll be one of the top three seeds.

Mike Clay and Sigmund Bloom are the Bangers Division co-leaders at 7-5 with Clay currently 12 points ahead of Bloom on the total points tiebreaker (4th and 5th in points scored overall). Clay has Drew Brees leading his starting lineup with Matt Forte, Danny Woodhead, and Andre Ellington (who he has been trying to sell for weeks) as the rotation of three prominent backs in a league that only starts 2 RBs. If Roddy White could return to form for Clay to pair with Victor Cruz, Clay could be even tougher to beat. Bloom’s team has been hot in recent weeks thanks to the return of Rob Gronkowski, Shane Vereen, and Jonathan Stewart. Garrett Graham getting love from Case Keenum hasn’t hurt, either. With LeSean McCoy, Jordy Nelson, and Alshon Jeffery as other strong core players, Bloom will be a difficult team to face in the playoffs as long as he wins out.

If Bob Harris was in the Bangers Division, he’d be tied for first, but he’s a game back of Jim Day with a 7-4 record. The fact that he’s doing it with Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Ryan Fitzpatrick tells you that there’s more ways to win then a stud quarterback. Jamaal Charles, Deangelo Williams, and Andre Brown are helping and Mark Ingram might provide him a boost next season. But I have to say that Harris’ team is a lineup challenge every week with the likes of Steve Smith, Eddie Royal, Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, and Stevie Johnson as his top receivers. It goes to show that Harris, who is 8th in points scored, is doing a nice job getting the most of his start/sit decisions.

Jeff Tefertiller is 6-4-1 thanks to no decimal scoring in this league. Despite great overall experience with the site and league type, this is one thing I would recommend RSO to change (or to show me where I turned off this option) with its leagues. Tefertiller is seventh in points scored and doing it with good lineup decisions and strength at receiver (Brandon Marshall, Pierre Garcon, James Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Terrance Williams, and Jarrett Boykin) while he’s hoping Ray Rice can get on track down the stretch. Robert Griffin is still giving him quality points, but not like he’s hoped. Jeff is one of several teams who could move further up the playoff seeding or be bounced out in just two weeks time.

Jackson, let's hope you're seriously back to "Action" down the stretch. Photo by Karen Blaha.
Jackson, let’s hope you’re seriously back to “Action” down the stretch. Photo by Karen Blaha.

Yours truly is 6-5, but because I’m the top point scorer overall I hold the tiebreaker over Bryan Fontaine for the final playoff spot heading into the weekend. Jay Cutler’s injury hurt, so did Terrelle Pryor’s. However, I still have Carson Palmer and picked up Josh McCown weeks ago as a hedge. Both quarterbacks have served me well, especially Palmer’s 400-yard game last week with Indianpolis ahead. My true strength is wide receiver – Calvin Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Keenan Allen, and Cecil Shorts are usually my starting four. Vernon Davis has been holding it down at tight end and Seattle’s defense has been providing me more points per game than my running backs combined. Speaking of RBs, Ben Tate and Steven Jackson are getting healthier at the right time. If my team continues to score at the same pace, I should be one of the more dangerous lower seed match-ups in the playoffs.

On the Bubble

Riley Cooper is one of many players who make Jason Wood's team a dangerous squad if he gets over the bubble. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.
Riley Cooper is one of many players who make Jason Wood’s team a dangerous squad if he gets over the bubble. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.

Fontaine (5-6) is sixth in points scored and has one of the more solid lineups around with a lot of players capable of big weeks: Matt Stafford, DeMarco Murray, Larry Fitzgerald, Dez Bryant, Antonio Gates, and Jordan Cameron. The emergence of Chris Ivory hurt Fontaine mid-season (he has Bilal Powell), but Pierre Thomas is fine depth. Tied with me record-wise in the Grinders Division I wouldn’t be surprised if Fontaine overtakes a couple of teams that are currently projected “in” – I hope mine isn’t one of them.

Rivers McCown is 5-6 in the Bangers division and 13th in points scored. Cam Newton, Adnre Johnson, and Rueben Randle are the corps players on his squad and the rest is a start-sit challenged: Daniel Thomas, Willis McGahee, Lance Moore, Tyler Eifert, Sean McGrath, and Jarius Wright. Without a strong starter at RB and Jermichael Finley, McCown has had tough luck down the stretch.

Jason Wood (5-6) has a dangerous team. Despite his record, he’s second overall in total points and has the likes of Philip Rivers, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, Demaryius Thomas, Eddie Lacy, Riley Cooper, and the Chiefs defense earning big totals for him. The problem for Wood has been up and down weeks against some of the more consistent teams at the wrong times. With the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Rashad Jennings on his bench, Wood has the firepower and depth to be a playoff Cinderella, but getting there is the first priority.

Tim Stafford (4-6-1) has Marshawn Lynch, Wes Welker, and Tony Romo as his solid starters and the rest is a M*A*S*H unit: Randall Cobb, Santonio Holmes, C.J. Spiller, Mike Goodson, Owen Daniels, and Leonard Hankerson to name a few. He still has a shot, but he’ll need huge weeks from his core trio and Spiller and Holmes to get healthy to make some true noise.

To learn more about the league and Reality Sports Online’s excellent concept, check out this page. In case you haven’t thought about it, I am getting paid to give them my endorsement. However, I don’t do this often – and I am contacted monthly with some kind of offer. RSO is something I truly value and I agreed to start a league and keep a monthly diary because I would have paid to start a league with this format if I knew about it before they reached out to me.

I’ll be keeping this monthly diary next year as well, because I still really believe in the concept – so stay tuned for opportunities to earn a discount for starting a league next year. In fact, to risk doing the wrong thing – Start your own league and get a discount when you use this coupon code: RSP20%OFF.

Bobby Rainey’s Career Day

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I’d like to believe that last weekend will be the beginning of a long and fruitful career as an NFL starter for Bobby Rainey, but I’m not naive. The one position in the NFL where there is no shortage of talent is running back. There may be teams that lack a good eye for matching running back talent with its roster, but there are backs training at home with the ability to produce as an NFL starter if called upon.

Still, Rainey’s production is worth a look within the context of a season where Indianapolis traded its first round pick for Trent Richardson to pair him with a run scheme that is supposed to be his best match. Richardson has been far less productive than Donald Brown, a back playing well enough that it would be understandable if Colts fans are angry with Brown for taking so long (and costing so much in additional running back talent added to the roster) to finally begin looking like a quality NFL runner.

As fan, I’d remain patient with Richardson. However, the fact that he is not performing to expectation and needs more time to gel with his offensive line is a red flag similar to the one his teammate Brown first earned years prior. At the same time, the Cleveland Browns cut Rainey after giving him 14 carries in 6 weeks.

Two weeks later in Tampa Bay, and Rainey looks like the underrated back that I thought he was when he was prospect at Western Kentucky. Why is Rainey a fit with the Buccaneers but the Ravens and Browns gave up on him?

Especially the Ravens. Rainey’s game is stylistically comparable to Ray Rice – right down to the stamina that comes from being a 212-pound “short, but not small” back.

My contention? There’s a disconnect between the scouts and front office that bring in a player as a potential contributor and the coaching staff who decides whether to use him – if even give him a true shot. The counter argument is that Rainey would have never earned a shot in Tampa Bay if Doug Martin, Michael Smith (preseason), and Mike James hadn’t gotten hurt. The Buccaneers were desperate for a complement to Brian Leonard, saw Rainey flash against Miami, and rode the hot hand once he continued to maximize his chances a week later against Atlanta.

This is true, but ask yourself this question: Do you think Chris Ogbonnaya could have matched Rainey’s output if he was in the Buccaneers’ backfield last Sunday? Ogbonnaya runs hard, but I have never thought the Browns’ current lead back is the same quality player as Rainey.

The Browns disagreed with this notion. Yet, Cleveland and its offensive line – considered more talented from tackle to tackle than the Buccaneers – hasn’t helped Ogbonnaya gain as many yards on the ground in 10 games as Rainey has gained in two with the Buccaneers.

And what about Willis McGahee? The veteran has 275 yards on 106 carries this year. Rainey has 208 yards on 38 carries in six quarters of work.

You don’t think Rainey – an undrafted free agent cut by the Ravens – was too expensive for the Browns, do you? Perhaps McGahee and Ogbonnaya were too expensive to let go. Or more likely, the Browns didn’t know what it had in Rainey, judged him on his height and draft status, and didn’t give him a chance. By the way, Baltimore shouldn’t get away scot-free from criticism; Bernard Pierce has 279 yards on 103 carries and 2 touchdowns for Baltimore this year.

Of course, Rainey’s next six quarters could be bad enough that he’ll be nothing but a blip in the memories of football fans. While he has the NFL’s attention, let’s look at what Rainey has done thus far that is consistent with his performance as a college prospect.

Patience

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Rainey is adept at both gap and zone plays because of his college offense because he runs with his eyes. Rainey is a patient player whose feet work in conjunction with his eyes. The overall blocking by the Buccaneers line on this play is spotty, but Rainey’s skills make this play worthwhile.

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The Buccaneers pull its tackle behind the guard as the rest of the line slants to the left with the hope of two linemen reaching the linebackers to give Rainey a hole. But as Rainey approaches the exchange point with Mike Glennon, the middle of the line is a logjam. Note the Buccaneers’ No.75 who is pushing the Falcons’ tackle who has his helmet positioned at an angle where he’s poised to penetrate the backfield just as Rainey takes the football.

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If Rainey continues downhill along the trajectory of the exchange point, he collides with the penetration inside No.75. But the undrafted free agent runner pulls off a stutter move that former NFL offensive lineman Ben Muth suggests that top-10 draft pick Trent Richardson should be using more often.

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Rainey doesn’t stop and cut, but he changes his stride just enough to make a slight brake in his pace, allow his teammate to push the penetration to the left, and then continue his course to the hole.

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This is a fine display of footwork and agility integrated with what he sees ahead. Even so, there’s another obstacle  ahead. Check out the defender coming inside the tight end (No.81) at the line of scrimmage and it’s clear that Tampa has done a good job reaching the second level of the Atlanta defense, but not a good job of opening creases at the first. Fortunately, a good runner makes his offensive line look better than it is and Rainey is used to performing well against major college defenses that outplayed his offensive line.

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Rainey makes the decision to work tight to his guard and bend the run outside the oncoming penetration inside the tight end. This is a subtle move but it’s the difference between a two-yard gain and a much more productive run.

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When Rainey reaches the line of scrimmage, he delivers a stiff arm to the defender working inside the tight end. Remember, Rainey is three pounds lighter than Frank Gore’s listed weight. He’s short, not small; and this stiff arm is something you’ll begin to realize is a regular part of his arsenal.

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Because Rainey has the patience, footwork, agility, and power to clear two obstacles before he crosses the line of scrimmage, he’s now able to benefit from the quality blocking at the second level. By design this is backwards for the ideal ground game. While there have been questions about Doug Martin’s struggles and Mike James’ success, this is the type of play where a one-cut, downhill runner like James wouldn’t be as successful.

Rainey comes from a similar style of running as Martin. Although they both might err on the side of trying too hard to break a big run when the line isn’t playing well, they possess the big-play ability to create space that isn’t there.

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Rainey accelerates to the edge and turns the corner on the linebacker for the first down and earning another four yards after crossing the marker.

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Here’s a more straight-forward run where the line does its job upfront and Rainey’s job is to win some match-ups in the second and third level of the defense. This is a 1×1 receiver, 21 personnel, I-formation set on 2nd-and-five where the Buccaneers run a zone play with the line slanting left to set up a cutback to right end.

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This time around, the Tampa line does a good job sealing the Falcons’ line to the left side.

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As with any zone play, Rainey has multiple options. One of them is to follow his lead blocker inside left tackle and as you’ll see in the next two frames, it’s something Rainey is considering as he reaches the exchange point with Glennon.

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Once Rainey receives the ball from his quarterback, it becomes apparent to the runner that there’s not much of a gap inside left tackle. However, he does see the Atlanta defense flowing to the left and this makes the cutback a viable option.

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Rainey covers another two yards along the same trajectory as his fullback before planting his outside leg and cutting back. As you can see below, there’s a nice seal of the right side by No.69 and No.84.

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This is now about burst, quickness, and the line continuing to hold up its end of the bargain.

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Rainey works towards the edge, and just like the first play, bends the run tight enough around his seal (No.69) that he has room to address the cornerback working under the wide receiver in the right flat. There are several runs in this game where Rainey does an excellent job bending around lead blocks to set up creases to avoid a defender ahead of him. In fact, Rainey’s first carry in the game is a good example.

This was a run to right end behind a pulling guard and his fullback. As he reaches the flat, Rainey picks up a block by the fullback and makes a concerted effort to bend tight to that block to clear the block from No.76 ahead.

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As he bends this run ahead of the fullback’s block, the blocked defender manages to wrap Rainey, who runs through the tackle and gains another nine yards up the sideline for the first down.

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Back to this I-formation run with the cutback to right end. Rainey bends his run tight to the edge of his linemen to eliminate as much of the angle of the oncoming defensive back as he can.

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This gives Rainey a nice crease up the right hash for the first down and momentum to finish the play strong.

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Rainey lowers the pads to split the linebacker and safety. It’s this pad level combined with his low center of gravity that repels the safety’s contact.

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The safety slides off Rainey and it’s the linebacker who is forced to wrap and drop the running back two yards later.

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One of my favorite runs in this game incorporates his tight-cornering concept in traffic. It happens with 5:06 in the third quarter on a 2nd-and-10 from a 22 personnel I-formation run versus a Falcons defense playing the run with nine defenders in the box.

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This is a gap-style play where the left guard pulls across center to the right side but as you’ll see, Atlanta’s defense anticipates the trap and forces Rainey to improvise.

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At first, it’s all systems go. The guard pulls across, the fullback approaches the line, and there’s a slight push from the right side of the Buccaneers’ line.

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Just after Rainey takes the exchange, you’ll begin to see the left side of the Falcon’s line penetrate across the face of its blockers  and create a logjam at the point where the trap block occurs.

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Rainey sees the standstill behind the trap block, reads No.91 working across the face of the backside guard, and the runner takes a more creative alternative: He stops, plants, and cuts to the backside tackle. This is a great display of agility, and peripheral vision.

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Rainey executes the cut back and from the vantage point of this frame, it seems unlikely that a runner would exploit a hole between the tight end and the left tackle up the left hash. But this is what happens as you’ll see below.

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Rainey executes this move with another tight bend around the first linemen and this gives him a shot at getting inside the tight end, who manages to bring the linebacker to one knee.

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Rainey makes an even harder lateral cut than the first to exploit this smaller crease and burst up the hash.

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Five yards later, Rainey clears the tight end’s block and has his pads down hill and in position to finish this run strong, falling forward and gaining eight yards on a play that could have easily been a loss of two.

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Leverage and Balance

It’s not just moves at the line of scrimmage that make Rainey a nice surprise for the Buccaneers. This 2nd-and-10 run should have been foiled in the backfield, but Rainey displays a comfort with physical play that is Ray Rice-like.

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The line slants right to begin this run and the defensive tackle over left tackle does a good job crossing the face of the lineman and reaching the backfield.

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By the time Rainey takes the exchange, the tackle is making a beeline for the back and it appears there will be an imminent collision 3-4 yards in the backfield.

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Rainey is too quick for the tackle, dipping outside the penetration towards his teammates who are sealing the left side of the line to the inside.

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As Rainey reaches the line of scrimmage, the defensive end works through the tight end and now has an head-on angle with the runner.

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Rainey once again displays the stiff arm and pad level to work past a man much bigger.

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The key to a good stiff arm is being the first to make contact and delivering the contact with good leverage – and an angle where there’s a chance to work past it.

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Rainey gets the corner, keeps his pads downhill, and gains nearly five yards on a run where two defensive linemen had him dead to rights for a loss.

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Notice that I haven’t shown the long touchdown run? It was a well-blocked play at every level with nice decision-making at the second and third level from Rainey. It was fun to watch, but not nearly as impressive an individual effort as some of these shorter runs.

While I believe Rainey can earn a share of a committee with a team over the next 2-3 seasons and become a lead back if an organization gives him a true opportunity to compete for the job, I’m more skeptical of how the NFL works. Rainey is already 26  and it’s only his second season in the NFL. In contrast, Marshawn Lynch is just a year older than Rainey and is already an eight-year veteran. This is another round peg to Rainey’s resume that doesn’t fit the league’s square holes.

Even so, Rainey should be proud of this game. Because even if he never earns an extended opportunity to compete as a starting running back, no NFL fan, player, coach, scout, or front office employee can ever say that Rainey is not an NFL-caliber running back without appearing ignorant. That’s more than most prospects at this position can claim.

For more analysis of offensive skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

NFL Closeup: Le’Veon Bell’s Progress Report

Progress Report: Don't be a hero. See below.
Progress Report: Don’t be a hero. See below.

Just before the 2013 NFL Draft, I wrote a post about Le’Veon BellThe gist of the analysis addressed why Bell was a polarizing prospect among fans and analysts and why I believed Bell has the athleticism and patience to prove his naysayers incorrect.  Time to check on Bell’s progress.

The major criticisms of Bell’s game are that he 1) runs too much like a small back and won’t make plays with his agility in the NFL and 2) He bounces too many plays outside and needs to run tougher. Based on what I’ve seen this season – and a reflection of much of much of the analysis below – the progress report is a mixed bag.

The critics are correct that Bell makes choices like a small back. However, they are dead wrong about Bell not having enough quickness and agility to make productive plays with this style of running. Because Bell has been able to use his agility and quickness to his advantage, he is bouncing too many plays outside. It’s  not so much that he needs to run tougher because he has shown plenty of power. What’s problematic for some to grasp is that Bell’s agility is at the root of the same types of rookie obstacles that we saw from backs like C.J. Spiller, LeSean McCoy, and Jamaal Charles.

Once this trio of backs learned when to bounce plays outside or drop the pads and pound inside based on down and distance situations, their home run speed became a true factor in their games. The difference between these backs and Bell is that once the Steeler runner learns to base his decision-making on down and distance situations, fans will begin to see the more punishing side of Bell’s game.

Agility and Quickness

Bell has shown that he can bounce plays outside and get the edge on a defense since he earned his first start in the regular season.

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Bell makes two cuts towards the edge, beats defensive end Brian Robison around the corner and takes it to the end zone. It’s a product of decent blocking the the cornerback peaking his head inside the tight end at the edge that gives Bell the angle to the flat. One of the things Bell is good at doing consistently is manipulating defenders to commit in the wrong direction and lose their original angle.

Here’s a run against the Lions last week where Bell earns the first down because of his agility. This is a 1st and 10 with 10:18 in the opening quarter against a Lions’ defense that commits eight defenders in the box to stop the run.

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In a situation like this, the running back has to demonstrate good press and cut back skills to give his teammates a chance to generate a crease he can exploit. Bell will do this by pressing inside towards the right guard and center before bending the run to the tackle and ends.

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Once Bell nears the opening, he cuts outside towards the edge. At this point, Bell opts to make a second press and cut back against the defender at the edge. If he doesn’t do so, the location of the defender’s helmet to the inside shoulder of the tight end indicates that the defender has inside leverage and should be able to wrap Bell at the line of scrimmage for a minimal gain.

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Bell reaches the tight end and edge defender and makes a move towards the outside. When he does this, the edge defender and the defensive back in the right flat will react to the move and slide outside just long enough for the Pittsburgh runner to exploit the gap to the end’s inside shoulder.

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Dip outside . . .

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Edge defender moves head from blocker’s inside shoulder to outside shoulder, giving up his leverage  . . .

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Bell slides inside . . .

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Bell bursts through the gap inside that he creates with his short area agility. Remember, Bell had excellent agility times during pre-draft workouts. If you didn’t trust what your eyes saw with the former Michigan State runner’s quickness during his college career, his workouts substantiated the analysis that Bell’s quickness would not be an issue.

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Bell bursts through the crease and earns 12 yards untouched, forcing the defensive back to give chase rather than approach over top because of his initial move at the edge of the crease.

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Bell dips away from the safety as he crosses the first down marker and is eventually dragged to the turf after a gain of 14 yards.

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Later in the game, Bell bounces a second run to the far side end on a shotgun run for positive yards in the red zone. A big back bouncing outside to the far side tackle from the shotgun in the red zone cannot be a ponderous runner.

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Although this run requires quickness on Bell’s part, it is a well designed run when examining it from the perspective of the formation. The Steelers are in a trips set to the left and this creates a situation where most of the defense is to the left of center. If blocked as planned, the center should be able to reach the linebacker at the right hash, the right guard and right tackle should seal the defensive tackle and defensive end and the receiver in the right flat should handle the cornerback. This could give Bell a one-on-one with the safety.

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So far, so good. Bell takes the exchange as the center works towards the linebacker and the guard and center engage the right side of the Lions’ defensive line.

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Bell considers working between his backside guard and tackle. On the one hand, I like that he’s at least thinking about getting down hill as soon as possible even if he ultimately bounces the run around his tackle. It’s a good choice, too, because Ndamukong Suh is working free of his man and will be meeting Bell unblocked if the runner enters this hole.

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Bell is quick enough to bounce the run around the edge of the right tackle despite the fact that the defender has outside leverage.

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If Bell were as slow as characterized by some, this would be a tackle for a loss within the next step, if not right now. Instead, Bell dips the inside shoulder and takes the corner.

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Bell is fast enough to turn the corner and get his pads downhill. As the cornerback works up the flat, Bell decides to hurdle the defender.

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Up . . .

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Over . . .

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And still maintains his balance as he lands after contact.

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I’m not a big fan of runners hurdling defenders because it’s a reckless decision with more potential harm than good for the back and his football team. However, it’s still a fine display of quickness and agility from a back some deemed unable to execute these types of plays at the highest level of football.

Here’s a rare running play in Pittsburgh where the offensive line creates a hole fast and Bell doesn’t have to do much to create. The primary crease will be at left tackle and the receiver tight to the formation will dip between the end and tackle to root out the defensive back No.28.

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The first course of action is for the Steelers’ left tackle, left guard, center, and right guard to slant to the right side and seal the inside while the ends seal the outside. As you can see with the location of the helmets, the offensive line has done its job moving the Patriots defense inside.

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Bell approaches the line of scrimmage in a straight line and then bends the run outside to press the hole. The wide receiver tight to the formation at the beginning of the play works inside to address the safety. He doesn’t score a direct it but it’s enough to hook the defender and give Bell room to hit the crease. Bell is agile enough to change direction, make a second shift of weight and get downhill with an angle away from the DB.

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The slight stutter and change of direction does the trick and the next three frames show Bell hitting the crease with good burst and gaining positive yards.

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The blocking is sound, Bell makes a quick decision, bursts through the crease, and its a six-yard gain.

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Of course, rarely does an NFL offensive line open this type of crease on a consistent basis. Good NFL starters have to demonstrate superior athleticism and/or creativity and decision-making to earn quality production. Bell has the athleticism. The decision-making is not all there but compared to other backs that have entered this league and had similar gaps of knowledge and maturity, Bell is on the right track.

Agility and Underrated Power

What I’ve read from critics who I know watch football is that Bell needs to run tougher and he needs to use his frame better. In some respects, I agree. However, there are enough examples where Bell displays power than people overlook because of poor statistical production. It’s also an illustration of a back integrating moves with his upper and lower body and powering through contact.

In fact, I’d say Bell does so many things right on this play, that if I could show him his run and the next 2nd and 4 run I’m going to show you, it would prove an instructive for the rookie to know when to create and when to drop the pads and take whatever is ahead of him. At this point of his rookie year, Bell has to do a better job of reading the field and making the decision that will put his team in the best position to succeed.

On this play, Bell bounces the run outside after the two defensive tackles and the inside linebacker show good position inside to foil a run up the middle.

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There are several factors why I think Bell made a good decision to bounce this play outside. The first is the team’s field position. The Steelers are near mid-field and a potential loss of yards here doesn’t compress the range of plays that Pittsburgh might otherwise run if Bell lost yards inside its own 20. Further, it’s a first-quarter run on 2nd and 4. If it was a fourth-quarter run at the edge of field goal range and his team was down by two, then taking a risk to bounce a run outside and lose yards would be a bad decision.

Second, Bell spots three defenders capable of penetrating the middle before he even reaches the line of scrimmage. Bell’s best shot to earn positive yards before dealing with contact is to bounce outside. A third reason, is the position of the cornerback, who is working away from the line of scrimmage and with enough depth that Bell has a chance to win this one-on-one match up.

If the corner had his pads squared down hill and/or closer to the line, Bell would be better served to make one dip to slide to the right side, square his pads as soon as possible and hit the crease against the linebacker. Perhaps he could slide inside this linebacker, avoid direct contact and at least minimize a loss or earn a short gain.  This is what Bell should have done on the next 2nd and 4 run that I show.

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On this play, Bell reads the line and reacts accordingly, sliding to the edge after first considering the next hole from the center.

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As Bell dips to the edge note the cornerback outside the right hash beginning to square his pads and work to the line of scrimmage. Bell has an advantage due to the distance and the fact that he is the first to get his pads downhill and anticipate the defender.

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First, Bell has to take the edge. The rookie does this with a quick stiff arm on the edge defender coming free.

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It takes strength, balance, and quickness to ward off a defender while moving east west without a lot of downhill momentum. But because fans aren’t seeing Bell run through open holes with a start of 5-7 yards before dropping the pads on a linebacker and running over the defender, the runner’s power isn’t as obvious.

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After turning the corner with the stiff arm, Bell gets down hill and assesses his angle on the cornerback. What I like is that within five yards of making two moves to bounce outside and then a stiff arm, Bell still has a head fake in his arsenal to set up the cornerback. The defender bites outside due to the fake and Bell now has a chance to run inside the defender’s angle.

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Now Bell lowers his pads and sizes up the backside pursuit, delivering a forearm on No.28 as he crosses the first down marker.

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It’s not a highlight-reel play, but it’s an effective move for a back who has already made several on just this run alone.

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It’s also a move that affords Bell the opportunity to gain five yards after contact. When Bell can do a better job of knowing when not to create on runs, he’s going to be even more dangerous when these creative opportunities present themselves.

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Another display of power is a four-yard gain on 2nd and 11 with 9:38 in the first quarter of the same game. This is a zone play with Heath Miller functioning as the lead blocker. The line does a good job opening the initial hole, but Miller fails to seal the second level and this is where we get another glimpse of Bell’s strength.

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Pittsburgh double teams the back side end and the center and front side guard attack the Patriots’ linebackers.

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As Bell approaches the exchange point with Roethlisberger, the position of the silver helmets at the line of scrimmage are indicating this play to the right side should yield a crease at the line of scrimmage. The three Patriots defenders in the middle of the field each have their helmets to the left shoulder of the lineman blocking them. Although the right tackle doesn’t have inside leverage on the front side end, Miller is entering the hole and should help seal that edge so Bell can pass.

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As Miller approaches the line of scrimmage, the right tackle has turned the end just enough that Bell should reach the crease untouched. The center has engaged the inside linebacker and the right guard is about to engage Donta Hightower at the right hash.

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Bell does a solid job of pressing this crease with an approach to the middle of the line of scrimmage and then dipping to the right as he reaches the crease. I have seen plenty of criticism that Bell is too slow to the hole and he needs to be more aggressive hitting the crease. If Pittsburgh ran a gap-style running offense where the back follows a pulling lineman to one crease and that’s the only true choice for the play design, then I’d agree.

However, zone blocking requires more patience to the hole and then a hard cut and burst down hill when that hole opens. When the line isn’t opening holes fast enough, the back has two choices: create or take whatever he can get with brute power. Once again, this decision-making boils down to field position and down and distance.

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Bell gets as close to the line of scrimmage as possible and then dips to his right. Because he exhibits the patience necessary for a zone run, the right tackle has been given the time to turn the end to the outside and the guard has reached Hightower in the second level. If Bell hits the intended crease without this slower approach, he’s likely wrapped by the end and hit by the linebacker at the line of scrimmage for no gain. This is part of Darren McFadden’s problem on zone plays and why the Raiders return to more of a gap scheme with him.

It’s another example why fit with a system is important. If health weren’t an issue for McFadden and he was on a more balanced offense, McFadden’s explosive athleticism and aggressive mindset “to and through” the line of scrimmage is a great match for a gap style offense. Some backs can do both well. Bobby Rainey, the Buccaneers’ new back, has shown good skill as a zone runner and gap runner at Western Kentucky just as he did Sunday against the Falcons. If I were to assess which style he’s best at, I’d say he’s better suited to zone, but his facility with both made him an underrated player.

As Bell crosses the line of scrimmage, Hightower gets outside leverage on the Steelers’ guard.

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Hightower, who has the size, weight, and strength advantage on Bell, hits the running back high. However, Bell isn’t the smallish back Hightower is used to running roughshod and the Steelers’ runner doesn’t collapse to the turf on his side despite the linebacker initiating an indirect collision.

In the RSP publication, I grade players on three basic types of balance when they are carrying the football: direct collisions, indirect collisions, and making cuts. Every ball carrier should display good balance when making a cut. If he doesn’t, then he will have initial struggles at the NFL level and he will need to address if footwork as soon as possible.

Skill with handling direct collisions are more times than not a matter of technical skill. Whether a 185-pound scat back or a 250-pound bruiser, good pad level, knee bend, and attacking the oncoming collision can help a player maintain balance or at least fall forward.

However, one of the true ways to tell if a ball carrier has uncommon balance is whether he can stay upright when a bigger man gets a flush hit on him from an indirect angle. Ryan Mathews has had his ups and downs as a professional – and much of it has stemmed from how he handles adversity. When it comes to pure ball carrying, Mathews’ balance to bounce off flush hits from an indirect angle was one of several factors that made him a first-round talent.

Bell doesn’t lose his footing with this hit and he continues forward as the defensive back slips inside Miller and delivers a second hit with Hightower wrapped around the Steelers’ back.

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As we see at least once a week in football, a second hit can often dislodge the first defender from the ball carrier and spring that runner loose. The defensive back makes most of his contact on Bell and the runner doesn’t go down. Instead, Bell transfers some of the energy of that collision into momentum to spin.

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Bell begins to spin loose in the frame below as Hightower is forced to slide to Bell’s hips in an attempt to drop the runner.

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At this point, it’s a stalemate as a third Pats defender enters the fray.

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The whistle blows and Bells’ progress is ruled stopped after four yards. Not a great play on 2nd and 11, but this is tough running. It’s not tough and productive for the situation, but the tools are there. Rome wasn’t built in a day and most NFL running games aren’t built during a season.

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Decision-Making and Maturity: Room for Improvement

Bell’s athleticism can get him into trouble when the Steelers’ offensive line fails to open a crease and the rookie has the option to create or bull his way into the backs of his teammates and take whatever he can get. As I mentioned earlier, he doesn’t always know how to determine when he should do one or the other.

Here’s a 2nd-and-2 run where I would characterize the play as “right process, wrong outcome” because of the down and distance, the score of the game, time on the clock, and the field position. The Steelers spread the field just enough that it hopes Bell can find a crease on this short-yardage play in Patriots’ territory early in the first quarter of this scoreless game.

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As Bell takes the exchange, note the various defenders I’ve circled below and the gaps they are covering. There is no true open at this point of the run. If this was 3rd and 2 or the setting of the game was different, Bell might be best served to ram the ball behind the lineman with the greatest push and get whatever he can to set up a 3rd-and-short.

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However, I believe Bell has license to create on this play and he tries to press the hole to the right by beginning his approach towards the left and bending it back.

 

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The Patriots defense has done a good job filling the gaps inside (blue and red) and covering the front side and back side gaps (green and orange).

 

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At this point, Bell should probably lower the pads and take on the linebacker coming over top or try to slide outside No.68 and squeeze the run between this blocker and the backside defensive back No.37. Neither of these options are likely to produce a significant gain, but this “find the home run hole” mentality is what Bell has to temper.

 

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The linebacker shoots the gap, hits Bell in the legs, and drops the runner for a loss. Again, bad outcome but the setting allows some leeway for Bell to be creative and fail with a short loss. It happens to every back in the NFL.

Here’s a play where Bell has to be more conscientious about his decision-making in contrast to the 2nd-and-4 gain where he earns five yards after contact and did a good job reading the defensive back’s position so he could bounce the play outside. This play Bell does everything wrong.

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The Steelers’ line hopes to create its primary crease off right tackle and use the fullback, tight end, and wide receiver to seal the edge and second level so Bell has a one-on-one with the safety at the right hash. This is the type of play that is tempting for an athletic runner to bounce outside. Fellow Big-10 alum Laurence Maroney appeared to have turned the corner on a play similar to this during a 59-0 blowout of the Titans in a snowstorm when he kept a play inside, lowered the pads through the defensive back and busted the run up the gut for a touchdown. However Maroney failed to turn the same corner that many of his contemporaries did and left the league shortly after.

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Bell approaches the exchange point and the interior linemen are already engaged. If they can force the Patriots defensive linemen to work to left, Bell has a nice press and cut to the right. The frame below illustrates that this is exactly what happens.

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Bell will begin his press and cut between the frame above and the next shot. Note the position of the safety. Bell needs to read this player on this 2nd-and-4 run. The Steelers are already down by seven and approaching midfield. This is a time to make a conservative decision and if he breaks some tackles in the first or second level, great. If not, third and short isn’t a bad situation for Pittsburgh.

 

 

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As Bell begins his cutback in the frame above, note the fullback working through the crease towards the linebacker just inside the right hash. Bell needs to focus on hitting his crease with downhill momentum and getting his pads low. If the fullback gets a good block, Bell might be able to slide inside the safety or run through the defensive back’s hit for a first down.

The worst-case scenario for his play is the edge defender on Heath Miller sliding inside and wrapping Bell at the line of scrimmage. Again, not a big deal in the scheme of this series. However, Bell still has the home run mentality at work and it’s the rookie runner who fails his teammates in this situation.

In the frame below, Bell sees the edge defender’s helmet on Miller’ inside shoulder and fixates on the possibility of bouncing the run to the edge. The corner store is in sight for Bell and he hasn’t learned that there’s a time when taking a side trip is a bad idea. With the safety in position to earn a good angle through three possible gaps and close to the line of scrimmage with his pads down hill, this is one of them. Remember, on the 2nd and 4 play I showed where Bell bounced the play outside for a nice gain, the defensive back began the play working away from the line of scrimmage, the field position was different, and the game was scoreless.

 

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Bell decides to bounce the play to his right because of his fixation on the edge defender’s head inside the tight end. When focusing solely on the first level, this is the correct read. However, within context of the play design and the defensive back, it’s all wrong. This bounce outside will also give the linebacker outside leverage on the fullback.

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Bell works across the back of his tight end in the frame below and at that point, the play is over. The edge defender pops outside as the safety continues shooting the inside gap. Bell realizes he has made a mistake midway through his gap and displays the tentative nature that can plague any good zone runner when he makes a bad decision.

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Now Bell engages in some unproductive, wishful thinking and tries to revisit the inside gap. The safety shows Bell why it’s too late.

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Bell is now forced to plow through the defender to reach the line of scrimmage and earn minimal yardage. If he didn’t get greedy, he might have earned four yards with good pad level, downhill momentum, and a leg drive if he displayed greater maturity.

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Bell is a good, young player in a difficult position. The Steelers’ offensive line is struggling, the coaching staff is under pressure, and it’s possible we might see a new offensive system – if not a new staff – in 2014. If Pittsburgh has a different coach next year, Bell – and what he does best as a runner – might not be the best fit for this organization. It will be easy to view the rookie as part of the problem.

If you look at Bell’s skills and decision-making on the field, he’s one issue away from upping his 3.1 yards-per-carry average to the 4.1-4.3 range. Bell needs to study these down and distance situations, do a better job reading the field, and repeat after me when he sees them: Don’t be a hero.

 

For more analysis of offensive skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Bryce Brown and the NFL Parable of the Backup RB

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This parable begins with Ricky Watters. The former 49er, Eagles, and Seahawk sports a mediocre career yards per carry average of 4.1 and bad rap for saying to the media “For who, for what?”. Granted, Watters earned his reputation as running back with a diva wide receiver mentality for celebrating runs under 20 yards with animated celebrations and public criticism of former offensive coordinator John Gruden. He’s also in the news recently for unacceptable behavior as a high school coach.

When it comes to talking about Watters’ skills as a runner, it’s all noise that masks the power, agility, versatility, and durability of an instinctive and valuable football player. From 1994-2000, Watters touched the ball no fewer than 333 times per season. During this span his season totals were no worse than 1110 yards rushing, 40 receptions, 7 touchdowns, and 1550 total yards from scrimmage. And the fact he never missed a game during this seven-year span belies his  “For who, for what?’ reputation.

In 2000,  Watters was the bell cow of the Seattle Seahawks on his way to posting 1855 yards from scrimmage, which matched a career high that he earned 5 years earlier in Philadelphia. It was the year before Watters would just play four games before retiring from football because, already fearful of air travel, he no longer wished to fly in a post-9-11 America. 

Watters’ unexpected farewell to the game didn’t leave the Seahawks empty-handed. Before the 2000 season, Seattle picked Alabama runner Shaun Alexander with the 19th overall pick in the NFL Draft and felt so confident in its depth that it made a trade with Green Bay that sent the Seahawks’ third-string runner and a fifth round pick  to the Packers for a sixth round pick and defensive back Fred Vinson.

Vinson was a second round pick in 1999 who, not long into his Seattle career, injured his knee in a basketball game and never made a meaningful contribution to the team.  The Packers got the better end of the stick. The runner it received in return was Ahman Green, the third round pick of the Seahawks in 1998.

Green was 21 when he left Nebraska for the NFL. He didn’t start a game during his tenure in Seattle, earning all of 61 carries, 329 yards rushing, 3 catches for 2 years, and a touchdown. From the get go in Green Bay, the Seahawks de facto third string runner before the trade earned five straight 1000-yard seasons.

Ahman Green’s Production (2000-2004)

Year G GS Att Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng
2000 16 11 263 1175 10 39 4.5 73.4 16.4 73 559 7.7 3 31
2001* 16 16 304 1387 9 83 4.6 86.7 19.0 62 594 9.6 2 42
2002* 14 14 286 1240 7 43 4.3 88.6 20.4 57 393 6.9 2 23
2003* 16 16 355 1883 15 98 5.3 117.7 22.2 50 367 7.3 5 27
2004* 15 15 259 1163 7 90 4.5 77.5 17.3 40 275 6.9 1 48

We don’t know why the Seahawks preferred to pick Alexander in the first round when it had a back of Green’s caliber on its bench. However, Seattle isn’t the only team to deal away backup runners who succeeded elsewhere.  Priest Holmes had a 1268 yards from scrimmage and 7 touchdowns for the Ravens in 1998 as a second-year undrafted free agent. After Holmes only played part of the 1999 season, the Ravens picked Jamal Lewis in 2000 and dealt Holmes to the Chiefs in 2001. 

One can imagine the Ravens didn’t believe Holmes was a good fit as a power runner due to his size and feared the back would not be durable. While Baltimore was correct with its long view of the two players, Holmes had three seasons between 2001-2003 where he only missed two games and accumulated 960 carries,6587 yards, and 61 total touchdowns.  Lewis was no slouch but even with 2271 total yards in 2003, the Ravens runner missed the 2001 season due to an ACL injury and accumulated only 695 carries, 4040 total yards, and 21 total touchdowns during the same span of Holmes’ reign with the Chiefs.

Cedric Benson didn’t fit with the Bears from 2005-2007 and never had more than 674 yards rushing in a season with Chicago. However, he had three straight 1000-yard seasons for the Bengals. Michael Turner toiled behind LaDainian Tomlinson for four years but had three seasons in four years with Atlanta where he gained no less than 1340 yards on the ground and four straight seasons with at least 10 rushing touchdowns.

Tiki Barber was a role player for the Giants from 1997-1999, but from 2000-2006 he had six 1000-yard seasons during that seven-year span, including rushing totals of 1518, 1860, and 1662 during his final three years in New York. Stephen Davis, a back with four years out of five with no less than 1318 yards rushing in Washington and Carolina, was a reserve for his first three years in the league and only tallied 815 yards on the ground during that span.

So when I tell you to be patient with the likes of Eagles runner Bryce Brown, think of these backs that took me longer to write about than it to do find them as fits with my overall point. I profiled Brown as a blue chip talent despite a less than ordinary and uninspiring college career. Today, I’m revisiting Brown during his second year to see if his talent still merits patience. The answer is a resounding yes.

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Here’s a run last week against Green Bay where Brown provides fans and opponents a glimpse of his eye-opening skill. This is a run designed to go off tackle where the Packers penetrate the edge and have an angle on the runner, but Brown’s speed, balance, and agility belie his size.

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You can see Brown is forced to make his bend outside as soon as he takes the exchange, because of penetration up the middle. This forces a race from the beginning and based on the penetration at the edge, Brown is at a disadvantage in terms of angles. But you’ll see why speed can erase some of a team’s ills.

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Brown accelerates and turns the corner on the tackle and once he does, he has a nice alley up the sideline to reach the line of scrimmage.

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Although difficult to see with still photos, the acceleration it took to reach this corner is often too much for a runner to bend the run at this angle up the sideline. Not so for Brown, who then finds his second gear to burst up the boundary for the first down.

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Then here comes the Reggie Bush at USC move of cutting the run to the inside after generating a ton of momentum. Check out how sharp Brown’s angle is on this cutback after he makes a minor dip inside No.52 at the sideline.

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This is as close to a 90-degree cut as you’re going to see from a running back in this situation. While he eventually slips to the ground trying to make a second cut in the open field, the acceleration and control is on par with LeSean McCoy, a back two inches shorter and at least 10 pounds lighter.

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Brown’s strength, quickness, and reaction time is also on display with another play in this game where many NFL starters would have been dropped for a loss. This is a 12 personnel pistol run designed to go with his line slanting to the left, but the penetration forces a cutback to the right edge.

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As Brown takes the exchange he spots No.53 flying down the line as the backside pursuit without a shot of a teammate blocking this Packer. The angle is clear that Brown gets hit before he reaches the line of scrimmage if he continues his path down hill. It’s impressive that Brown spotted this possibility before the snap and even more impressive that he could diagnose the angle with his peripheral vision while taking the exchange at an angle away from this pursuit.

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Brown plants his left foot and makes a sharp cut outside the pursuit, but with second defender coming down hill unblocked, Brown appears dead to rights.

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However, the pad level is good enough to get under the first hit. Still, Brown’s pad level doesn’t create great leverage here; this is raw strength and balance.

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Brown runs through the first wrap two yards behind the line and during this run he has to step over the second defender.

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There is a similar a play I saw Eddie Lacy make at Alabama

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Brown turns a loss of three into a gain of four with his vision before and after the snap as well as his elite athleticism. This is the type of play we see his teammate McCoy make. We also see it from the likes of Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, and Jamaal Charles.

 

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Brown still has lessons to learn as he develops his NFL game, but flashes like these encourage me to believe this second year runner has the talent to do what Green did after leaving the Seahawks for the Packers.

For more analysis of offensive skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures at Football Outsiders: OK St. CB Justin Gilbert

Justin Gilbert has always been a talented athlete, but he has demonstrated technical improvement that is upping his draft stock. Photo by KT King.
Justin Gilbert has always been a talented athlete, but he has demonstrated technical improvement that is upping his draft stock. Photo by KT King.

He could be good, but he could be bad. It could be said about every player transitioning from college football to the NFL. When reading scouting reports and draft day analysis, it can seem like this is the basic assessment of every prospect.

Most Internet scouting reports aren’t written with the purpose of the analyst hedging his bets. The intent is to cover the full spectrum of a player’s strengths and weaknesses. But if not careful, the overall product appears wishy-washy.

In all fairness, every year there are prospects that merit this kind of “he could be good, but he could be bad” analysis. It’s understandable when considering the context of the times. The size of the NFL draft is smaller than any time in the modern era of football. Physical talent is better and the concentration of that athleticism is often as good at the top of the draft as it is at the bottom. It’s why we read about undrafted free agents who at one time were considered first-day prospects.

Rookie receiver Da’Rick Rogers -– a street free agent who tried out with the Buffalo Bills this summer and got cut -– is on the cusp of earning significant playing time this month for the Colts. With a playing style that reminded me a lot of Dwayne Bowe but with greater short area agility, there was a time Rogers was every bit the prospect – if not better – than his fellow Tennessee Volunteers matriculates. It’s a list that includes the likes of Justin Hunter, Denarius Moore, and Kenbrell Thompkins (although Thompkins never played a down in orange and white, opting out when Lane Kiffin left campus). It was Rogers’ off-field behavior that put him on outside looking in when the NFL held it’s annual “April Rush.”

Entering the 2013 season, Oklahoma State cornerback Justin Gilbert also had a wish-washy scouting report despite an on-field game that was brimming with confidence. Gilbert has first-day athleticism and versatility, but junior year lapses with technique and judgment made him the type of player who elicited a wide range of draft day possibilities before his senior year.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders