Date Archives February 2014

Reads Listens Views 2/28/2014

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Joe Montana's legendary cool-under-fire humor reminds me of Bill Murray in Stripes. Wouldn't you want him saving the world? Read on. Photo by David Shankbone.
Joe Montana’s legendary cool-under-fire humor reminds me of Bill Murray in Stripes. Wouldn’t you want him saving the world? Read on. Photo by David Shankbone.

This Week’s RLV: Why the RSP shows its work, Chase Stuart’s Combine MVP,  and one funky spider.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/edUGRcKHccA]

What is Reads Listens Views?

If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog, welcome. Every Friday, I post links to content I’m saving for later reading when I have time. You may not like everything listed here, but you’re bound to like something.

In Case You Missed It

Who would you pick to defend the planet in a science fiction football game? Photo by Frankula.
Who would you pick to defend the planet in a science fiction football game? Photo by Frankula.

I posed this fantastical question to Ryan Riddle and Sigmund Bloom the other day: If an alien race came to earth and challenged the human race to a game of football with the planet on the line, who would be your starting quarterback?

I have my answer, but I want to hear yours.

I don’t care how you imagine the aliens. Nor do I care if you pick a player who is 60 or six feet under and the aliens resurrect/revive him to his peak physical powers. That dilemma is for your twisted imagination.

I just want to know who you pick.

Here’s the follow-up question: If the aliens’ deal is that we have to pick a quarterback from this 2014 draft class, who would it be? I’ll be holding a tournament to decide. Make your nomination here.

Thank You

You picked this guy high despite a nagging injury if you followed the 2013 RSP. Photo by John Martinez-Paviliga
You picked this guy high despite a nagging injury if you followed the 2013 RSP. Photo by John Martinez-Paviliga

Friday’s are also my chance to thank you for reading my work, encourage you to follow the RSP blog, and download the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

The RSP is available every April 1 for download. It’s a 250-page (give or take) draft publication filled with analysis of over 170 skill position prospects that has earned it a loyal following of happy readers:

  • Rankings
  • Draft history analysis
  • Overrated/Underrated analysis
  • Multidimensional player comparisons
  • Individual skills analysis by position

This is only some of what you receive in the RSP publication. I began writing the RSP 9 years ago. At the time, I was an operations and process improvement manager who was certified in an operations certification standard. The training included best practices for performance evaluation processes – and quality performance from my teams was a hallmark of my work for nearly 15 years.

As much as I loved and studied football, I knew that the only way anyone would buy into my analysis would be to show my work. This meant making everything as transparent as possible:

  • How I define everything I grade
  • The point values for my grading
  • The checklists/reports that I use for the grading
  • All the play-by-play notes I take for the games that I grade

That’s right, I show my work down to the play-by-play notes. The “back of the RSP” is often another 700-1000 pages of content that comes with the 250-page RSP pre-draft guide.

Don’t worry, at least half of my readers never look at this part of the RSP.  However, those who like to crosscheck their own scouting reports (be it media, draftniks, or scouts), find this material a worthwhile resource. Even if they don’t agree with all of my assessments, the back of the book gives them a clear indication of why I made the calls that I did.

You can learn more about the RSP here. If you want to see samples of the play-by-play notes I take to write the analysis, you can find them here.

If you don’t have time to look into details, know that once you look through the RSP, there will be no question in your mind that I do the work, that I have a plan about the work that I do, and that you get more than your money’s worth. It’s why more and more draftniks every spring can’t wait until April 1.

If you think that’s a ton, you ain’t seen nothing. When you purchase the RSP, you also get a free post-draft publication that’s available for download a week after the NFL Draft. Fantasy football owners tell me all the time that this alone is worth the price.

Best yet, 10 percent of each RSP sale is donated to Darkness to Light, a non-profit devoted to preventing and addressing sexual abuse through community training in schools, religious groups, and a variety of civic groups across the U.S.

Here is what the RSP donated to D2L this year. According to D2L, the RSP’s 2013 donation amount was enough to train 250 adults in communities across the country.

Pre-order the 2014 RSP and/or download past versions of the publication (2006-2012).

Reads (Football)

Reads (Life In General)

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ZhNOJKXTVVs]

 

The QB to Defend The Planet (You Pick)

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Who would you pick to defend the planet in a science fiction football game? Photo by Frankula.
Who would you pick to defend the planet in a science fiction football game? Photo by Frankula.

I posed this fantastical question to Ryan Riddle and Sigmund Bloom the other day. If an alien race came to earth and challenged us to a game of football to keep the planet, who would be your starting quarterback? I have my answer, but I want to hear yours.

I don’t care how you imagine the aliens or if you pick a player who is 60 or six feet under and the aliens resurrect him in his prime condition. That dilemma is for your twisted imagination. I just want to know who you pick.

Here’s the follow up: If the aliens’ deal is that we have to pick a quarterback from this 2014 draft class, who would it be?

Add a comment at the bottom of this post with each name. ONLY LEAVE THE TWO NAMES. It’s not that I don’t care about your reasons why, but at this point I don’t care about your reasons why. I just want to take the top 5-10 answers and hold a tournament.

I’m going to ask writers to represent each choice (for the first question) and present their arguments here before the final vote. But vote in the comments below so I can take a tally. Note: Don’t worry if your comment doesn’t show up immediately – I moderate this blog, so I’ll get them by email. 

Futures: 2014 Speed Score Leaders

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back

Where Bo Jackson 2.0 could be made . . . photo by Dancelilsister.
Where Bo Jackson 2.0 could be made . . . photo by Dancelilsister.

If I had a laboratory fitting of a mad scientist, Football Outsiders’ Speed Score would have its application. What about now?

Futures: The 2014 Speed Score Leaders

By Matt Waldman

Indulge me in a bit of fantasy. Imagine an old football field. It’s a practice field at the rear of an abandoned high school with woods surrounding it on three sides. Behind the north goal post is an equipment building no bigger than a backyard storage shed with a green tin roof, white cinderblock, and a steel blue door held three-quarters shut with a rusted chain and pad lock.

Squeeze inside this dark, dilapidated building and you’ll find Craig James’ concussed son -– wrong story. Let’s try again…

Squeeze inside this cobweb-filled space and you’ll find nothing but a bench press station with a torn vinyl cushion. Reach into the tear of the cushion and there’s a switch that opens a trap door in the floor near the entrance that reveals a long, torch-lit spiral staircase made of stone that leads to the secret laboratory of M. Waldman, mad scientist of offensive skill talent.

The demented (but good) doctor is pouring over plans to create Bo Jackson 2.0. He has set up shop in the southeastern United States because of regional and socio-economic factors that point to it as the best area to produce a rare athlete for the game. He’s hacked into the medical records of pediatrician offices and narrowed the field of candidates to boys who are projected to develop into young men between five-foot-nine and six-foot-one and have the skeletal-muscular potential to carry 210-to-225 lbs.

Like a formula to determine the tensile stress of a material for an engineering firm, Football Outsiders’ Speed Score would have an ideal application in M. Waldman’s secret lab. The problem wouldn’t be constructing the running backs, but preventing Nick Saban from breaking them before they reach the NFL.

In the reality of the NFL Draft, the Speed Score provides a layer of analysis that illuminates the players with desirable physical skills. The idea is a fine one: if they’re big and explosive, they’ll have the strength-speed-agility to measure on a spectrum that ends with terminates at Bo Jackson.

But we know that good running backs come in all shapes and sizes. Darren Sproles and Brandon Jacobs illustrate how the range of height, weight, speed, strength, and agility of successful players at the position is wider than any in the NFL.

The differences in size are also indicative of the specialization of the position that has evolved over the years. The New Orleans Saints three different types of runners on its depth chart:

  • Darren Sproles — A hybrid of a scat-back, slot receiver, and return specialist.
  • Pierre Thomas — A utility back that does his best work in pass protection, draws, and screens.
  • Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson — Traditional power backs who do best with a high volume of touches.

The Patriots, Cardinals, Bengals, Colts, Chargers, Panthers, Lions, and Falcons have at least two runners with roles that may blend in some places, but have distinct separation of labor in others. Based on recent drafts, one could argue that the Packers, 49ers, and Washington had similar aspirations.

Specialization offers more avenues for a variety of physical talents at the running back position to earn a roster spot. However, it doesn’t create more opportunities for running backs overall.

There’s a lot of talent on the street that can enter an NFL locker room, exit the tunnel to the field on Sunday afternoon, post 80-100 yards, and help a team win a game. The fact that Thomas and Robinson -– two UDFAs -– are viable options is a testament to this point.

Joique Bell, Alfred Morris and Arian Foster’s numbers all sound the refrain that a quality NFL running back often requires a lot less of what we emphasize as “good foot-speed.” There’s another type of speed that these three possess that is as important as foot-speed, agility, balance, and vision –- “processor speed.”

It’s an attribute often linked with vision –- a quality that is difficult to quantify unless one deconstructs “vision” into definable components. I still link processor speed with vision –- it’s the mental speed that a football player sees the position of the players on the field, links it to the game situation, and executes the appropriate physical reaction to the this environment-stimuli.

Processor speed enhances on-field speed. Watch a tentative or confused player and subtract tenths of a second of his execution time. While you’re at it, begin subtracting positive plays, playing time, and ultimately a contract with the team.

Clean, consistent technique is another factor that enhances on-field speed. There are receivers with 4.3-speed that cannot separate from cornerbacks because they cannot run clean routes. However, there are much slower pass catches whose routes are so good that they earn separation as if they had great foot-speed.

There’s no silver bullet or code to crack that will yield accurate projections of rookie prospects with quantifiable precision. Because the mad scientist’s football laboratory is only a pipe-dream, it’s important to view players that score high on Football Outsiders’ Speed Score within the context of the rest of their skills.

Nevertheless, the 2014 version of the Speed Score offers an intriguing quartet of players at its top: Oklahoma’s Damien Williams, Georgia Southern’s Jerick McKinnon, Stanford’s Tyler Gaffney, and Notre Dame’s George Atkinson. I’m not convinced all four have a place in the NFL, but even before Aaron Schatz asked me to write about them, I thought each offered an intriguing storyline.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

No-Huddle Series: WR/KR Bruce Ellington

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
"+4 Wand of Instant Inferno" or as I call it, "Bruce Ellington Abstract" Photo by Dvanzuijlekom.
“+4 Wand of Instant Inferno” or as I call it, “Bruce Ellington Abstract” Photo by Dvanzuijlekom.

Bruce Ellington is like a Swiss Army knife equipped with a butane lighter that doubles as a jet pack.

A couple weeks ago, I was a guest on Elise Woodward’s show on 950 KJR Seattle talking Seattle wide receivers and the NFL Draft. Woodward asked me which receivers I think the Seahawks might take in the first couple of rounds if the team parts ways with either Sidney Rice or Golden Tate. She also asked me to consider my answer with the knowledge that Seattle has a penchant for surprising the general public with “reaching” for players they like earlier than the dictates of conventional wisdom.

By the way, the true definition of conventional wisdom is a gathering spot for lots of folks who are about to look foolish.

My projected picks for Seattle in this hypothetical on-air game were Martavis Bryant as the replacement for Rice and Bruce Ellington as the replacement for Tate. Woodward, who is one of my favorite sports radio hosts around, immediately sparred with me on that choice – and rightfully so.

“But he’s FIVE-NINE . . . FIVE-NINE!!! The Seahawks already have smaller guys like Baldwin . . . ”

Fast forward to today. What the public knows now is that Ellington runs a 4.3-40. He’s as fast as any of the top receiving prospects in this class.

What I don’t think a lot of the public knows is that the 5’9″, 196-pound Ellington is the type of prospect I’m drooling over. If I were building an offense and wanted a scheme that would allow my quarterback to look over the defense and then shift 2-3 players to alter the alignment and change the match-up advantage against the opposition (think Patriots with Rob Gronkowski, Shane Vereen, and – in theory – Aaron Hernandez), Ellington would be one of my targets.

The two-sport star from South Carolina is one of the more impressive open-field ball carriers at his position and the excellent often appears on the smallest gains. Moreover, Ellington is an intermediate and deep threat, who I believe will make the transition to a more physical bump-and-run NFL game.

The reason is his basketball skill. Conventional wisdom – there they go again in that meeting space dreaming up stupidity dressed in a logical suit – always worries that former basketball players-turned football players aren’t used to the physical play of the gridiron.

As blockers, I agree. However, basketball players are facing tight, physical coverage catching passes and driving lanes. Earning separation against tight man or zone defense is a fundamental part of basketball.

Tony Gonzalez, Jimmy Graham, and Antonio Gates are great examples of basketball players who have been among the best tight-coverage receivers at the position and changed the game. Terrell Owens and Randy Moss were pretty good basketball players. Both were excellent in tight coverage.

Don’t just think of Bruce Ellington playing football when watching these highlights below, imagine him driving a lane or working free of a defender in tight coverage on the court to receiving a pass. The fact Ellington has the raw athleticism (speed, quickness, and strength) and conceptual athleticism (when and how to move) is a product of playing both games at a high level.

Scraping Blocks and Setting Up Creases

The play below is a 2nd and 4 with 1:23 in the first quarter from a 1×3 receiver 10 personnel shotgun. Ellington is the middle trips man with the ball the right hash at the 33 versus a 3-3-5 defensive look. The play will be a bubble screen to the left flat where Ellington will catch the ball three yards behind the line of scrimmage.

The NFL has adopted this play enough that Ellington should have an immediate opportunity to earn a small set of plays in an offense with the potential for a big impact. Think Andrew Hawkins for the Bengals before he got hurt.

Ellington makes the catch, tucks the ball under his left arm and works to the inside shoulder of his teammate in the slot before sliding behind the back of he defender to press and cut through that hole his two receiver teammates open. I call this tight work behind the back of a blocker “scraping a block.”

It’s not a technical term from football, but the act of working in close proximity of blocks without colliding with blockers is a useful way to use a lack of height and loads of quickness to one’s advantage as a ball carrier.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=110&w=560&h=315]

Ellington reads the outside corner making his approach inside and slides to his outside receiver, setting up a cutback to the inside. This setup fakes out the defensive back working past the outside receiver. The result of these moves helps Ellington split the defense, get the first down, and reach the 20. He finishes after contact to gain a few more to the 17.

Physicality

Dexter McCluster is no Bruce Ellington. What I mean is that the average fan might think of a 5’9″ receiver and associate him with a player like McCluster, who is a fine football player capable of withstanding physical play, but not one who will be returning the favor on opponents.

Ellington is more along the spectrum of a faster Hines Ward. Not as physical, but he has enough physicality to block like a running back. This 1st-and-goal with 0:43 int he first quarter form a 12 personnel twin-left shotgun set at the three of Vanderbilt is a good example.

The slot receiver begins the alignment at the left hash with a defensive back five yards off. The Gamecocks send Ellington in motion across the right end offset the tight end. At the snap, Ellington works inside-out, delivering a strong punch to the defensive back to clear the lane for the quarterback sneak for the score.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=147&w=560&h=315]

Ellington may be short, but at 196-pounds he’s mighty and physical. Moreover, he does a fine job of setting up his position on the defensive back to make the play. Thank a basketball education on setting position.

I also like that Ellington can cut-block. It’s a craft that many receivers and backs fail at miserably. I watched Andre Williams attempt six cut blocks in a game against Florida State this year. He executed one with good technique and with the desired end result of knocking the defender off his feet.

The other five? Williams either didn’t use the proper technique to work across the defender’s frame, didn’t drive through the defender, or telegraphed his intentions. Ellington has no such problem on this screen pass where he opens the field for his teammate to earn the first down.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=286&w=560&h=315]

Layers Of Moves

Here’s another bubble screen from a 1×3 receiver, 10 personnel shotgun set with the ball at the left hash of the 30. Ellington is the middle trips man facing a nickel look. He catches the ball with his hands close to his body and turns up field from the 27 as his two blockers engage the slot defensive back and the cornerback.

Ellington displays another fine understanding of press-and-cutback technique by working inside the slot man before cutting outside. However, there’s another layer to this cutback that dazzles me and that’s how he combines the outside cut with an outside spin to work behind the cornerback and reach the 32.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=167&w=560&h=315]

It’s not a huge gain, but the movement in tight space is impressive. It’s a small hint of something exciting that many will ignore. However, I bet we’ll see a lot more of it in the NFL and it will earn him far more yards.

More Than Bubble Wrap

Bubble screens are like bubble wrap. They have a use and they’re fun to play with, but it wears thin fast. Ellington’s game is far more than the bubble screen.

Here is a 10 personnel shotgun set with receivers 2×2 on 3rd and 8 with 11:48 in the half from the South Carolina 33 and facing a 3-3-5 look with two safeties deep. Ellington is the slot right receiver at the right hash with a defender playing four yards off Ellington and inside the hash.

The receiver works past the defensive back with an outside release, catches the fade a step past the defender as the ball arrives over his inside shoulder a the Vandy 39 and turns up the right sideline of the 35. Ellington does an especially good job of using his inside arm to frame separation after he earned separation from the defender.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=176&w=560&h=315]

Ellington runs through a wrap to his arm by raising his inside arm to ward off the contact at the 33 and stays in-bounds another 4 yards. The result is a 28-yard catch and 38 yards total on the play. Although there’s a small juggle of the ball after making a catch close to his chest, this is not indicative of Ellington’s game.

Money Catch

Making a catch into the teeth of the defense with a hit on the way is what I call the Money Catch. It’s why Anquan Boldin is about to make more money at an advanced age for a wide receiver.

Here’s a 3rd and 7 with 10:13 in the half from a 1×2 receiver, 20 personnel shotgun set. Ellington is at the left hash at the slot man facing a nickel back that is playing four yards deep and shaded outside. The ball is at the right hash of the Vandy 31.

Ellington runs a post route between the defensive backs in the red zone, making the catch over his inside shoulder, and taking a hit in the process.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=204&w=560&h=315]

Money.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Ki-G4vWMK9o]

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – available to pre-order now. The 2014 RSP will available for download April 1. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 2/21/2014

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
"+4 Wand of Instant Inferno" or as I call it, "Bruce Ellington Abstract" Photo by Dvanzuijlekom.
“+4 Wand of Instant Inferno” or as I call it, “Bruce Ellington Abstract” Photo by Dvanzuijlekom.

This Week’s RLV: 2-hr couch session on rookie QBs, Lil’ Darlin’, David Fales Developmental Gem?, 2 Muggs and my ugly mug.

Listens – Speaking of Infernos . . .

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Ns02jzH8Ccw]

Michael Brecker may look more like a Philadelphia-area accountant than a musician, but if you ever heard the Saturday Night Live Band from the 70s or listened to Cameo’s “Candy” then you know different. He’s a musician’s musician and one of the greatest saxophonists in history.

Welcome

A 261-page online publication that provides 1029 pages of play-by-play notes from my evaluation database and 10 percent of your purchase is donated to fight sexual abuse. Pre-order 2014 now.
A 261-page online publication that provides 1029 pages of play-by-play notes from my evaluation database and 10 percent of your purchase is donated to fight sexual abuse. Pre-order 2014 now.

If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog, welcome. Every Friday, I post links to things I’m checking out when I’m online. You may not like everything listed here, but you’re bound to like something. It’s also my chance to thank you for reading my work and encourage you to follow the RSP blog and buy the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

For those of you new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, the publication is available every April 1 for download. You can learn more about the RSP here. If you want to see samples of the play-by-play notes I take to write the analysis, you can find them here. And to download past versions of the publication (2006-2012) or to pre-order the 2014 RSP, go here.

If you don’t have time to look into details, then I’ll say this about the RSP: Once you look through the RSP, there will be no question in your mind that I do the work, that I have a plan about the work that I do, and that you get more than your money’s worth.

In addition to the RSP and  the post-draft publication that comes with it a week after the NFL Draft, 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light. This organization is a non-profit devoted to preventing and addressing sexual abuse through community training in schools, religious groups, and a variety of civic groups across the U.S.

Here is what the RSP donated to D2L this year. According to D2L, the RSP’s 2013 donation amount was enough to train 250 adults in communities across the country.

Listens

Where Bloom and I meet in the cosmos. Photo by David Stillman.
Where Bloom and I meet in the cosmos. Photo by David Stillman.

Last Night’s On The Couch: Two-hour quarterback therapy covering these topics and more:

  • Deconstructing the myths of Johnny Manziel.
  • Teddy Bridgewater and why the sum of quarterbacking is greater than its parts.
  • Which team takes the chance or passes on Derek Carr?
  • What does the choice of quarterback tell us about the personality of the head coach?
  • Sorting out the upsides of Carr, Aaron Murray, and David Fales in the context of current pros.
  • Break-downs and expectations for Brett Smith and Logan Thomas.
  • Which quarterback in this class is acting like Justin Beiber?

Good times. Hopefully you find it informative. If you want more, I was also recently on with the 2Muggs crew – not to give them second-billing, it’s just a few days older. In that podcast we have a good time talking about these topics:

  • The how and why behind the RSP Publication.
  • What makes Sammy Watkins special and is he more than speed?
  • Where does Mike Evans fit within this class and is he a special prospect?
  • Is Isaiah Crowell in a similar situation at this point of the draft process as Christine Michael last year?

In Case You Missed It and What’s Ahead at The RSP Blog

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZigsJdm75M&start=78&w=560&h=315]

This play illustrates where QB David Fales has the potential of an NFL starter and one of the paths he must take to reach it.

I might even have a little something about the Wonderlic Test. By the way, here’s Rotoworld’s Josh Norris getting ready for the Wonderlic.

Relax Norris, you’re ruining a great opportunity to enjoy a massage . . .

Reads (Football)

Reads (Non-Football)

For the poor farmers, building a yadong costs next to nothing – all one needs is a shovel and a few friends to dig the soil.

This dwelling dug underground is called a “yaodong” and it’s one of many homes created in unexpected places around the world. See below.

Listens – “Lil’ Darlin'”

[youtube=http://youtu.be/FMibKxQWRnw]

This is a technically difficult gem because it’s hard to swing with this kind of patience.

No-Huddle Series: David Fales, Developmental Gem?

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback
Photo by eschipul.
Photo by eschipul.

Can San Jose State quarterback David Fales develop more velocity on this throws like Drew Brees? Read on.

Eric Stoner at Draft Mecca is one of the first draftniks I know who watched David Fales and liked his game.  I do, too. When I talked about what I saw in the 6-1, 22o-lb.starter at San Jose State to a scout I know, his response was that Fales has a “niche market” – and the scout includes himself in that group.

RSP: I’m digging on David Fales as a developmental guy at QB. I think he can learn to drive off that front foot earlier and integrate it to gm

Scout:Hah, I love Fales as a developmental guy; he’s an enigma though at times.

RSP: There are times when he anticipates and then simpler plays where he hesitates. Then plays against Cover 3 where I’m scream at the TV – CHECK-DOWN! Still, I love that he wants to bust your ass if you blitz him – Love that attitude.

Scout: He’s got a good head on his shoulders and seems to have some instincts; he will sail throws trying to compensate for arm strength though.

RSP; I think his footwork is really off. I was watching him vs. Brees just 10 minutes ago on some similar throws. Brees’ front foot comes down well before he finishes the follow-through. Fales’ front foot doesn’t’ come down until the ball is nearly out. He doesn’t drive off that front leg and the ball sails and lacks velocity on some throws.

Scout: A lot of times the footwork/stride stuff is an issue for a guy who doesn’t have a feel for when to zip it vs use touch.

RSP: And I see that. Up the middle, he’s pretty good. He can get into the 40-yard range with some zip at times. He often struggles on these throws down the middle he has to climb and his feet don’t get settled. But on the perimeter? Sometimes he can’t deliver a good ball not much more than 30 yards.

Scouts: He has a bad habit of not driving balls outside; I saw it pretty clearly in Senior Bowl up in the crow’s nest with [deleted]. Yeah, he’s a pretty niche market guy, but I still like him well enough to say he could be a No.3 right away with solid potential.

Here are a few things that I’ve seen in recent weeks-months that led me to broach the topic of Fales. These are visual examples of some of the things discussed above.

Pocket Presence and Aggressive Mentality

This is a 1st and 10 pass with 9:23 in the first quarter from a 2×2 receiver, 10 personnel shotgun set versus the San Diego State Aztecs. The ball is at the 35 of the opponent’s left hash and the defense is playing a 3-3-5 look with no safety deep. Five defenders at at the line of scrimmage, including two edge rushers standing up outside the tackles.

On this play Fales takes a three-step drop looking left as the defense sends all five defenders to the pocket. As he finishes this three-step drop, his focus turns to the middle of the field. Fales’ eye manipulation and skill at working through multiple receivers during a drop back is a consistent part of his game.

As Fales finishes his drop, pressure form the edge takes an inside track to the pocket. Fales does a good job of climbing inside the defender and throwing the ball from the 42 of San Diego State’s left hash to the eight. The receiver is running a post breaking to the middle of the field.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZigsJdm75M&start=78&w=560&h=315]

Although the receiver drops this target – a pass that is catchable, it’s a low throw. What I like about the throw is the placement between the S and the CB. What’s disappointing is that if Fales delivered this ball with more velocity and on a line, he could have hit the receiver in stride beyond the saety and inside the corner for a touchdown.

This is the type of throw a starter at the NFL drives on a line for a score and has commentators drooling over the throw. If Fales can develop a better arm to drive the ball 40-45 yards rather only 34 yards, his pocket presence, field vision, and anticipation make him a promising player.

Here’s another example of Fales splitting the zone defenders after addressing pressure. This is a 3rd-and-12 with 1:55 in the third quarter from a 2×2 receiver, 10-personnel shotgun set with the ball at the 45 of San Jose State.

The Aztecs’ defense is once again using a 3-3-5 look. Fales takes a three-step drop facing four defenders attacking the pocket. He looks left, turns right, and hitches a step before throwing the crossing route that splits two defenders in zone for an 18-yard completion and a first down.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZigsJdm75M&start=610&w=560&h=315]

Extrapolate the velocity of this throw to the first highlight and you see the possibilities for Fales if he can achieve greater arm strength and velocity. If not, this range of 18-30 yards will be what he does best.

It’s a range that’s good enough for Fales to provide services as a valued backup – especially a player with his pocket presence, anticipation, and aggressive mentality. I love that Fales often sees the open field the blitz has left behind and he loves to get rid of the ball fast to take advantage of it.

When the play allows Fales to drop the ball in the bucket with distance and touch rather than distance and velocity, the San Jose State quarterback does this as well as any quarterback in this class. However at this point, Fales’ eyes often exceed his arm.

There are situations where I watch Fales forgo the check-down to a running back and he’ll  wait an extra beat to attack down field to the detriment of the play because he lacks the gun to hit his receiver on-time an in a tight window from that range. His tight-window accuracy is good, but when the velocity fails, Fales falters.

Development Opportunity: Footwork

One of the ways Fales misses receivers in the deep-intermediate and deep zones is overthrows. I’m sure this seems counter-intuitive after I just explained that Fales’ lacks velocity on deeper throws. However, overthrows are the result of a quarterback trying to push the ball with mechanics that aren’t tight enough to deliver the ball on a line.

This 1st and 10 with 13:50 in the game is a good example. Fales and the offices is in an 11 personnel shotgun set with the ball at the 17 of  from a 2×1 receiver,  11-personnel shotgun set against the Aztec’s one-deep safety over a 3-3-5 look.

San Diego State sends five men to the pocket – three from the left side as Fales drops looking to the middle. Fales sees what he wants and off the third step of his drop, he sets and delivers the ball from the right hash at the San Jose State 9 to the 48 of San Diego State – a 43-yard throw from release point to potential catch point.

However, the pass is thrown too far and one of the problems is the arc on the ball. Fales’ effort to throw the ball for distance sacrifices the low-arc needed to reach the receiver who is open by a step.

One of the problems is Fales’ feet as he delivers the ball. He’s not driving off that front foot before the ball leaves his hand. Instead, the ball is leaving as he’s still transferring his weight. Watch how his feet move with a rougher, stilted motion as the ball comes out.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZigsJdm75M&start=647&w=560&h=315]

Now compare Fales’ motion with a player like Drew Brees, a fine deep thrower and a guy of similar dimensions who got better with his velocity after leaving Purdue. My suggestion, refresh your browser each time to queue the Fales throw and Brees throw if comparing the two.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VWV_-devqQ&start=11&w=560&h=315]

Brees’ time on his front foot while delivering the ball is much longer than Fales’. Brees is driving off that foot. Fales has to learn to do this with all of his throws.

If the rookie was forced to start in the NFL today, teams would force him to make plays beyond the limitations of his range and he would look like a sub par player. However, give Fales 2-3 years to integrate this footwork into every throw, add some muscle, and gain more understanding of more complex defensive looks, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this prospect offers value to a team as a primary backup.

And if the arm strength gets a lot better, I wouldn’t be shocked if Fales knocks on the door of that NFL starter club.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – available to pre-order now. The 2014 RSP will available for download April 1. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: A Trio of Sleepers

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback, Running Back, Wide Receiver

Circus by Gerard Stolk

WR Paul Richardson, RB Tim Flanders, and QB Dustin Vaughan are intriguing players without the big-top pedigree.

Futures: A Trio of Sleepers

by Matt Waldman

According to most fantasy football writers, the term “Sleeper” is dead, buried, and the wake held in its honor featured a stuffed mushroom dish with creamed spinach and Italian breadcrumbs soaked in butter. Considering that many football writers at the wake sported IV drips topped with Crisco, finger food is always underrated.

Sleepers are still alive in the lexicon of “reality football.” Not that this term is somehow more legit than fantasy football.

Why would it be? Reality football has deteriorated into a wild and wooly sub-genre of Reality TV.

Pick a channel or website and there are weekly installments of the NFL’s Dr. Phil and Dr. Laura, only most of them hide in anonymity when dishing their gossip dressed as pop-psychology. Call me when these 20-something prospects finish adolescence.

On another, there’s the salacious he-said-he-said drama between two former Dolphins. Each episode is so popular that Jerry Springer is taking a pounding in the daytime ratings. Those rubber sheets from the investigative report to Commissioner Goodell might come in handy after all.

Reality Football is a five-ring circus of top prospects, current players, media, former players-turned-media, and Twitter all competing for attention. There’s no room for players under the big top who lack the Q Score of the headlining acts.

With the possible exception of Dallas, the actual game of football isn’t played under a circus tent. Once upon a time, even the Cowboys caught some teams sleeping on developmental players like Tony Romo and Miles Austin.

Joique Bell, Marlon Brown, Alfred Morris, Kenbrell Thompkins, and Brian Hoyer are also testaments to the fact that sleepers are alive and well in the NFL. Here are three of mine for the 2014 NFL Draft. Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

The Little Things That Make Sammy Watkins A Big Deal

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Watkins has the upside to lap the field of some fine receiver prospects when it comes to NFL potential. Photo by PDA.Photo.
Watkins has the upside to lap the field of some fine receiver prospects when it comes to NFL potential. Photo by PDA.Photo.

The great strength of Sammy Watkins’ game is in the finer details. 

If Sammy Watkins didn’t possess excellent hands and speed, he wouldn’t be a top prospect at his position. However, it’s the little things that make Watkins a special prospect.

Weeks ago, I profiled Allen Robinson’s penchant for leaving his feet to catch targets thrown at a height where he could have maintained his feet during the act of the reception. Consistent application of this detail will earn Robinson greater opportunities for yards after the catch.

Robinson is already a fine ball carrier, but even at 6’3″, 210-215 pounds, he’s better at avoiding defenders than he is running through tackles. This is based on watching Robinson at Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Central Florida, and Nebraska).

Attention to detail is an essential reason why Watkins is ahead of the rest of his draft classmates. The Clemson receiver is like a jazz musician playing in a pop band – few appreciate every nuance because the knowledge often requires hours of study or an enormous intuitive feel for the game to get beyond the environment of the performance to see everything that makes him special.

I’m sharing two plays that provide glimpses into what makes him special, but some miss because they either haven’t seen enough snaps of Watkins or they are too chained to the Clemson scheme to see the skills that transcend it.

The first is a classic case of great process, bad result. I love sharing these plays, because they underscore my belief that behavior is more reliable than the outcome.

The second is a case of great process, great result, and an uncommon play for the Clemson offense. The process also reveals skills that translate to other aspects of Watkins’ game.

Great Process, Bad Result

The play is a 12-personnel, 1×1 receiver set with Watkins  as the receiver on the left inside the numbers of the flat. He’s positioned two yards behind the line of scrimmage and the cornerback has outside shade and five yards of depth.

By the way, the Ohio State corner does a fantastic job on this play because he has Watkins one-on-one with no safety help.  Here’s the formation pre-snap.

WatkinsA1

The single safety is at the opposite flat, which is a huge key that Watkins is facing single coverage. Tajh Boyd recognizes this coverage and the opportunity to deliver a quick throw for Watkins to win one-on-one.

However, Boyd’s throw lacks the precision for the situation. Watkins has turned to the quarterback and squared his pads to provide a good target, but Boyd leads the receiver too far into the teeth of the oncoming defender.

WatkinsA2

Watkins doesn’t react the way I see from countless receivers that I watch in these situations where the ball is thrown above chest-level. The receiver extends his arms away from his body and attacks the ball, but he does not leave his feet.

Watkins also frames his body so his pads and hips are down field and the ball ahead of him. Screen after screen in this game, this receiver gets into this position before catching the ball.

I never see this kind of attention to detail on a screen or throw-out that is one of the simplest routes to execute for a receiver. Moreover, Watkins’ approach is extraordinarily consistent.

WatkinsA3

Despite the impending contact, Watkins stays true to his process. He understands it gives him the best chance to win the match-up and at worst, prevent a bad outcome.

Watkins’ technique places the receiver in position to make the catch, secure the ball to his sideline arm, and extend his free arm to attack the defender with good pad level and leverage despite the defender’s advantage.

WatkinsA4

There’s no way Watkins has a chance to contest this hit if not for his pre-catch attention to detail. As the contact collapses Watkins stiff arm, the receiver’s arm and pad level is like a shock absorber. WatkinsA5

Watkins has enough balance and leverage to turn sideways through the contact. With the ball high and tight to the outside arm, the receiver withstands the corner’s attempt to rip the ball loose.

WatkinsA6

All of this sound technique is the reason Watkins is able to absorb the contact, push back and force the defender to the ground. If Watkins doesn’t collide knees with the defender, I believe he runs through the contact up the left flat.

WatkinsA7The corner does everything right on this play to win the match-up, but Watkins’ fundamentals make it a win by the slimmest of margins. Don’t be surprised if you see Watkins win some of these plays in the NFL – and win big. 

Great Process, Great Result

Watkins’ critics say that the receiver only runs screen plays and he’ll need the right scheme to thrive in the NFL the way he thrives in college football. This statement implies that all he can do well is run screen plays or zone routes.

Here’s a single coverage route – one of the prettiest examples of route running I see in college football.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWDwGTmMypk&start=148&w=560&h=315]

The initial release is patient and a straight line into the body of the defender with good pacing that remains constant throughout the route. One of the things that made Jerry Rice a great route runner was not only the fact that every route looked the same in terms of maintaining a straight line with every release, but also a consistent pace.

Varying speed can be a useful tool, but it’s an attempt to lull an opponent into a lapse of focus. Maintaining a constant speed puts the opponent in a constant state of discomfort.

This straight stem is 12-yards long and the top of the stem features a dip inside with the head turned and then a fantastic head fake outside-inside leading to a second jab-step inside and use of the shoulders that forces the corner to turn his hips. This sequence of moves are all performed without any variance in pace – difficult to do.

By the time Watkins breaks to the corner, he has left the corner in the dust. All of these qualities are performed with the same efficiency I see as a ball carrier – patience, pacing, and layers of moves.

It’s not an indicator of good route running with many receivers, but it’s behavior consistent with Watkins across all aspects of his game.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2014 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Embracing The Craft of Player Evaluation

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft
Tony Romo is a perfect Rhorsach for football fans. Photo by Football Schedule.
Tony Romo is a perfect Rorschach for football fans. Photo by Football Schedule.

Player evaluation is an imperfect endeavor. Understanding one’s limitations is a huge step towards getting better at it.

The most compelling thing about the NFL Draft is that no matter how hard it tries, it cannot escape its humanity. It’s this human element that makes player evaluation – and evaluating what good evaluation is – so difficult. 

Evaluating human behavior is a craft. It’s not science. It’s not intuition. It’s not history. And it’s not life experience.

It’s all of these things layered with perspective and applied with doses of humility, pride, and appreciation of the perfection of imperfections. It’s limitations and imperfections that are the root of character.

Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice weren’t deemed big enough to carry the load. They are two of the toughest backs in football and proven bell cows.

Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Brandon Lloyd are too slow to play wide receiver if looking solely at the speed data. However, what they do to catch a football despite these limitations is like a gorgeous birthmark on a model’s face.

Frank Gore is a former physical freak-turned-mortal whose sight, decision-making, and patience make fans wonder “what could have been” if he didn’t suffer two knee injuries that took away his immortality. Tony Romo and Brett Favre have embodied the sum of human failings, but often supplied its most inspiring heights.

I joke that Romo and Favre are often the dividing line among fans who embrace humanity and fans who think we’re better off eliminating humanity and evolving into androids.

Self-loathing aside, it’s the humanity in these players’ games that shine the brightest to fans – the production despite imperfection and the feats that for a briefest moment stretch beyond limitation. Likewise, player analysis is a willingness to both embrace and stretch beyond the humanity inherent in the process.

Every human being has characteristics of their personality that, depending on the situation, will have positive or negative expression. If one looks hard enough, this is true of scouts, writers, and draftniks when they evaluate prospects.

We all have several of these traits, but there is often a few predominant traits that are easier to notice. One of mine is persistence-stubbornness.

A positive side of its expression in my work is that I’m often thorough and steadfast with my analysis. A negative side in my work appears when I’m stubborn about process to the point that I can miss the forest while examining the trees.

I am also drawn to the underdog or the troubled soul. It’s part of my personality imprint.

I’m less likely to judge players with checkered pasts. Before I developed more life experience and caution, I was more likely to give trouble a second or third chance to the detriment of my analysis.

I’m not alone. There are scouts, writers, and draftniks drawn to players that I call bright and shiny objects –  players who possess eye-popping physical skills, but lack the refined play of a consistent,  reliable starter.

These folks see potential and have the vision to see how it will blossom in a positive way. But they are sometimes to their detriment a slave to it the way Bill in Kill Bill had a thing for blondes.

Other people latch onto one thing about a player. It might be the overriding characteristic that makes a player successful despite flaws in his game that others nitpicked to death.

At the same time, these people are also famous for spotting a potential flaw that is not the overriding factor for success or failure and it derails their analysis. They turn into the nitpicker.

Then there are the data guys who often generate insights, who at their best, provide a fresh, clear-eyed perspective of players and the game that re-frame the questions we should be asking.  At their worst, they think any process that involves data is objective while dismissing information that they cannot yet figure out how to analyze with their tools.

I’m not talking about best analytics practitioners that I know who are working behind the scenes in the NFL. These individuals are often the first to tell you that the intuitive and the “subjective” have a place in analysis. These individuals studying the film as much as they study the data.

We all want a silver bullet – an attribute, a stat, or a measurement that will override the imperfection of craft. But player analysis is a craft.

You may not like it. I may not like it. It doesn’t matter.

Reads Listens Views 2/14/14

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
The Swiss Army Knife complete with butane lighter-jetpack.
Bruce Ellington – The Swiss Army Knife complete with butane lighter/jet pack. Photo by Middleton Photo

This Week’s RLV: Music for Lammey to sip his upside-down, loop-de-loop latte’s to, Paul Richardson preview, GNR Meets Treme, and smart crows.

Listens – “Axl & Slash Meets Treme”

[youtube=http://youtu.be/kJ3BAF_15yQ]

I’ll take it . . .

Welcome

If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog, welcome. Every Friday, I post links to things I’m checking out when I’m online. You may not like everything listed here, but you’re bound to like something. It’s also my chance to thank you for reading my work and encourage you to follow the RSP blog and buy the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

For those of you new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, the publication is available every April 1. You can learn more about the RSP here. If you want to see samples of the play-by-play notes I take to write the analysis, you can find them here. And to download past versions of the publication (2006-2012), go here.

In addition to the RSP and  the post-draft publication that comes with it a week after the NFL Draft, 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light. This organization is a non-profit devoted to preventing and addressing sexual abuse through community training in schools, religious groups, and a variety of civic groups across the U.S.

Here is what the RSP donated to D2L this year. According to D2L, the RSP’s 2013 donation amount was enough to train 250 adults in communities across the country.

Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/AVaITA7eBZE]

I have a thing for crows (actually, I think they have a thing for me).

In Case You Missed It and What’s Ahead at The RSP Blog

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=960BvWmzlhM&start=121&w=560&h=315]

Even the drop is exciting. Hell, I can’t even call it a drop. A more accurate assessment? “Centimeters from a sick catch.” More on Richardson soon . . .

  • Picking on Jarvis Landry – I promise, I like Landry’s game, but you take good teaching opportunities when you get them.
  • Futures: Louisville S Calvin Pryor – When it’s all said and done, Pryor might be the best safety prospect in this class.
  • RSP Rorschach No.3 Cornell QB Jeff Mathews – Did he throw this pass too early or too late? Review the evidence and vote.
  • Funny Thing Happened at the Senior Bowl – Only didn’t I get the full extent of the punchline until Sunday’s ground-breaking announcement.
  • Coming Soon:The Little Things That Make Sammy Watkins A Big Deal
  • Coming Soon: Underrated – Colorado WR Paul Richardson
  • Coming Soon: Bruce Ellington – A Swiss Army Knife With A Butane Lighter That Doubles As A Jet Pack
  • Coming Soon: No-Huddle Series: Cal TE Richard Rodgers- Lots of promise, but can he fulfill it?
  • Coming Soon: WR Kelvin Benjamin Analysis – I haven’t decided whether this will be a Futures column or analysis entirely on this blog. Stay tuned.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/MLrC7e3vSv8]

You know you’re getting older when pop tunes like this one is coffee shop material – well done, but still something Cecil Lammey sips his upside-down, loop-dee-loop latte’s (oh, with four sugars, please) to. Thanks, Keith Overton.

Views – Star Wars Meets Sochi (Love the coach’s reaction)

I can't stop watching this (h/t @akdobbins)

Reads (Football)

Reads (Non-Football)

Views – Surreal . . .

[youtube=http://youtu.be/HengPojNgbM]

Coming This Spring: RSP Writers Project (RSPWP)

The RSP Writers Project is an event I’ve hosted for two years at this blog that features football writers from around the country engaged in an exercise designed to make these scribes and readers think about the complexities of the game in a different light. RSPWP1 was a team-building exercise where we assembled teams with a salary cap (try it yourself by downloading the spreadsheet here) and presented these squads with posts that discussed our player-personnel choices and strategic philosophy for the offensive and defensive units.

Here is one of my two teams with a post that discusses the roster and a second post that presents the strategic philosophy through a Q&A format.

RSPWP2 was a 32-team draft with over 20 rounds held on Twitter (#RSPWP2) and draft commentary hosted here.  In recent weeks, I’ve had more than a few writers ask me if there will be an RSPWP3. The answer is yes.

And in the spirit of the RSPWP, the third incarnation of this exercise will take a different approach. The RSPWP3 writers will inherit teams with a specific set of personnel, conditions, and circumstances. Their job will be to present a three-year strategic plan to ownership.

Each owner will present their plan as a post on the RSP blog. Readers will be given access to each team well before the presentations are made so they can play at home.  More details soon.

Views 

[ted id=1630]