Category 2013 NFL Draft

2013 RSP Flashback: RB Zac Stacy

0 Comments read 2013 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Publication, Running Back

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The 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio is now available for pre-order for it’s April 1 release. Here’s a sample from 2013 of the underrated Zac Stacy.

There is not much flash in Stacy’s game, but there is plenty of substance. The Commodores runner has a low center of gravity and good power to keep his legs moving. He does not usually go down after the first hit or wrap.

He’s a decisive runner and will hit the hole on-time on gap plays (pulling guards) or show some patience and skill at pressing the hole on zone plays. Stacy optimizes the position of his blockers to access rushing lanes and this is probably his best skill. He rarely loses yards as a runner and he’ll keep the chains moving forward even if the runs aren’t for big plays.

His timed speed is a little more impressive than his on-field speed, but I have seen him show nice burst to the edge or through an open crease against fast defenses like Georgia. He lacks great agility to string together moves or make huge lateral cuts. Stacy can make a sharp cut if he has a step to gather his feet, but he’s not going to make big cuts at full speed and turn defenders around in the open field or with suddenness at the line of scrimmage.

He’s a one-cut down hill runner with enough speed to get into the third level, but not enough to create consistent breakaway runs. He has really good balance to carry defenders on his back
or stay upright after contact from a variety of angles. He has a shifty style where he can make defenders miss in the backfield or bounce to the outside and downhill. And Stacy protects the ball with either arm according to the location of the run and he keeps it cinched tight to his body.

His pass blocking is pretty good. He understands his protections, sets up angles to get square to his opponents, and will get good placement with his hands as a stand up blocker. He also delivers a good cut block on bigger defenders and hustles down field as a lead blocker in the run game.

It is possible that Stacy has an issue that his preventing him from punching opponents with good form as a pass or run blocker. However, what I saw is a player that tries to “load” up and deliver a shoulder or elbow/forearm. Although he sets a good angle to deliver a punch, the actual punch is out of control. There were plays where Stacy didn’t take a good angle to the
defender rushing the pocket and this forced pressure that he should have accounted for.

Stacy will be a fine backup in the NFL with enough skill to produce in a committee situation, perhaps even as a starter. However, he strikes me as a player that a team will say it’s happy with but continues to bring in other talented players to compete with Stacy while he has the starting job.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – available to pre-order now. The 2014 RSP will available for download April 1. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Remember The Name: C.J. Anderson

0 Comments read 2013 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Publication, Running Back

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In a season where quality running back production has been as scarce as ever, it’s vital to consider talent that has lurked behind the scenes. Broncos rookie C.J. Anderson is that kind of player. The former backup at Cal is getting a shot with Denver’s active roster this weekend ahead of Ronnie Hillman, who won’t dress after fumbling the ball inside the Indianapolis five last weekend.

It’s unknown whether Anderson will get a chance to see playing time. And I can’t tell you if the rookie will look as good as he did in the preseason or experience growing pains the way the Patriots wide receiving corps struggled in September. I will share that as a fantasy owner, Anderson has been sitting on a majority of my dynasty league rosters since August.

Ryan Riddle is also a big fan of Anderson’s game. Riddle, a record holder at Cal, speculated that Anderson’s role as a backup was due more to politics than talent. Based on what I studied last year, I believe there’s validity to that assertion.

Based on what I saw from Anderson this summer, I think he has the best combination of physical dimensions, agility, burst, and balance of the backs on this roster. Knowshon Moreno is a better passing down back, but I think Anderson offers more as a runner and, with more experience, he has the potential to be as good as Moreno in the passing game.

In fact, I think Anderson showed me more agility this summer in Broncos’ camp than what I saw at Cal. His impressive preseason combined with lackluster performances from Hillman and some doubts about Ball led me to hold onto Anderson where I could.

Here’s a sample of what I have on Anderson in the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.  

Player Comparison:  Rudi Johnson due to  Anderson’s thick frame, well-balanced style, and a downhill mentality. He’s an economic runner with good feet like Johnson.

Overall Assessment: Anderson is a hard runner with a good burst, skill as a pass protector, and capable of starting for a team if called upon. I think he could surprise in the NFL as a lead back in a committee and even be the full-time starter if called upon.

Profile of C.J. Anderson, Cal (5-8, 224)
Anderson is a strong runner with good lower body development that helps him explode through contact. He possesses a low center of gravity and is rarely knocked backward. Anderson runs with low pad level and hits holes hard, but he also demonstrates patience and cutback skill to press a hole to let his blocks develop. He does a good job anticipating interior blocks and working through double teams just as they develop to hit tight creases for positive gains.

He also has a good enough burst to get through fairly tight creases and beat an unblocked backside defender to the crease. Although he plays with quickness, he appears to be a one-speed runner without a lot of lateral agility once at full speed and into the secondary. A real positive of Anderson’s game is his feet, which are a lot like that of former Bengals runner Rudi Johnson who didn’t thrive with elaborate cuts, but could changed his stride to get downfield and avoid trash in the hole or make one cut. Anderson does the same thing.

The Golden Bear also demonstrates press and cut skills on zone plays. He’s more of a one-cut runner with decent feet, but I didn’t see evidence of great elusiveness. His power is a little better than functional, but not extraordinary.

The Cal back carries the ball under his outside arm (right or left) and as a receiver he catches the ball with his hands, does a good job working with his quarterback to present a good target, and he can take a hit in the act of securing the football.

Pass blocking is good and can get better. Sometimes Anderson will “catch” a defender with his hands out in pass protection rather than deliver a punch, but when he decides to strike with his hands, he displays excellent placement and power with good technique. He also displays accurate diagnosis the oncoming pressure. I think he has a chance to surprise at the NFL level because of his build, style, and smarts as a runner. I think he can be a first-line reserve back in the NFL because he does everything well enough to start, but nothing extraordinary that would warrant him an instant opportunity to compete for the job until he at least proves what he can do at the pro level in some games.

C.J. Anderson RSP Play-By-Play Reports and Grading Checklists

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Keenan Allen RSP Sample

0 Comments read 2013 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

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The following excerpt and attachment at the end of this post are samples from the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio on Chargers’ wide receiver Keenan Allen. The Cal prospect was my No.2 receiver in both the pre-draft and post-draft versions of the RSP despite the fact he ran poor 40-times due to a lingering knee injury. The excerpt is from my rankings profile in the pre-draft RSP. The attachment is the checklists and play-by-play reports of the games I used to grade Allen. 

2. Keenan Allen, California (6-2, 206)

If it weren’t for Patterson being that rare player with other worldly talent, Allen would pose a strong argument as the best prospect in this class of receivers. What flies off the screen when I watched Allen was similar to Patterson: Allen’s ability to make defenders miss in the open field with a variety of moves that you don’t often see from one player in a game, much less within the span of a four-yard gain. Allen may lack long speed, but he is lightning-quick, and sharp with his moves, and he sees the openings in tight quarters better than many players at his position. It just so happens he’s not as quick, fast, or strong as Patterson. These two have a lot of work to have this caliber of career, but imagine Ladainian Tomlinson (Allen) in the same draft class as Bo Jackson (Patterson). It’s a little tougher to appreciate Tomlinson’s athleticism in this situation.

Allen is a more refined, consistent talent than Patterson. He is very good against press coverage and he has the strength and coordination to swat, swim, swipe, or duck through the jam and his coordination between his hands and feet is excellent. The Cal receiver is capable of excellent hard breaks with a strong plant of the front leg and sink of his hips to generate a quick stop and turn. Combined this man-to-man technique with his understanding of when and where to break against zone coverage, all he needs is the ball in his hands on-time and in stride and he’s capable of generating big plays.

That is the component of the passing game that has been missing for Allen. The Cal receiver has lacked consistency at quarterback and there were plenty of routes where with a better passer he would have displayed even more ability to catch the ball with his back to the quarterback and make plays in rhythm that sends him into the open seam with the ball in his hand. There are enough plays from him against the likes of Cal-Davis, Arizona State, and Nevada that reveal a player with awareness of the sideline, skill with sharp breaks, and the ability to make plays more than swing passes, screen passes, hooks, and crossers.

What the inconsistent quarterback play did reveal is that Allen has a wide catch radius to make plays on errant throws away from his frame. He does an excellent job digging out low passes, high-pointing throws over his head, and extending for balls head or behind him on crossing routes or hooks. He does all of this with athletic grace and grit in the face of contact. If Allen could gain another 10-15 pounds with his height and speed, he could become a more formidable yards after contact receiver because at this point he falls when hit squarely by a defender in open space. However, the challenge for = college opponents is getting a hat on Allen in the first place. And I have little doubt that this will surely be an issue for NFL defenders.

Allen’s deep speed is his greatest question mark. At worst, he’ll be a deep-ball threat only in the play action game, but given his skill to get early separation, maintain position, adjust to the football, and make plays in the open field, I have little doubt that he’ll thrive as a high-volume receiver.

Keenan Allen Sample (Click to download .PDF)
For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

On Scouting Wide Receivers

0 Comments read 2011 NFL Draft, 2012 NFL Draft, 2013 NFL Draft, 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
If you're trying to find the next Dez Bryant, then data has a vital place but if you take the approach that tries to reverse engineer a process that is unintentionally based on the idea that all productive receivers are like Dez Bryant, it's misguided. Photo by A.J. Guel.
If you’re trying to find the next Dez Bryant, then data has a vital place but if you take the approach that tries to reverse engineer a process that is unintentionally based on the idea that all productive receivers are like Dez Bryant, it’s misguided. Photo by A.J. Guel.

I believe analytics have value, but the grading of wide receivers based heavily on speed, vertical skill, and production is an ambitious, but misguided idea. Further the application is the torturing of data to fit it into a preconceived idea and making it sound objective and scientific due to the use of quantitative data.  Unless the data is getting into some Nate Silver-like probability analysis, analytics is going to arrive at conclusions that are safe based on the past, but lack game-changing predictive value.

Some of my colleagues and friends at Football Outsiders, Pro Football Focus, and RotoViz will disagree.  And many of you will too, because you’ve bought the idea that what’s being studied is objective and scientific. There is often an air of certainty and black-and-white finality to the communication of this “quantitative” information that readers find more palatable than if “qualitative” information is delivered with the same tone. Numbers make people sound more powerful and intellectual even if the quality of the information isn’t well designed.

I can tell you that I write because I put words together in a pattern that you can read. It doesn’t mean that I’m writing well. The NFL has bought into analytics for reasons that are both sound and naive. Analytics should only get better over time and I believe in its future. I just don’t buy into it lock, stock, and barrel.  I think in this area of study with wide receivers, analytics needs to raise its standard and find another way.

The NFL will realize this about some methods of analytics sooner than later. Many teams are seeking a magic pill without fully understanding the manufacturing process that goes into it. Since they have been able to get this information for a modest fee and oftentimes at no charge in the early days (and we’re just emerging from the earliest of days in the era of analytics)  because these individuals and companies found the payment of notoriety an acceptable alternative to money.

It only makes sense that “quants” figured they could make the money off readers later if they couldn’t earn it from teams now. This dynamic is also changing, but it’s worth understanding the nature behind their relationship with the league. Fortunately for both parties, they will continue to work together and only deliver better products on and off the field.

I’m trying to do the same from a different vantage point. The more I watch wide receivers, the less I care about 40 times, vertical results, or broad jumps. Once a player meets the acceptable baselines for physical skills, the rest is about hands, technique, understanding defenses, consistency, and the capacity to improve.

I liked Kenbrell Thompkins, Marlon Brown, Austin Collie, (retired) Steve Smith, several other receivers lacking the headlining “analytical” formulas that use a variety of physical measurements and production to find “viable” prospects. What these players share is some evidence of “craft”. They weren’t perfect technicians at the college level or early in their NFL careers, but you could see evidence of a meticulous attention to detail that continued to get better.

This video does an excellent job of explaining why speed is the most overrated part of a wide receiver’s game. Speed should be seen as the icing and not the cake. Technique is the cake. It’s a great instructional guide on route releases and breaks, how they differ on the NFL level. Check it out. I continue to on a regular basis.

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For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Eddie Lacy and Why I Prefer Talent Over Situation

0 Comments read 2013 NFL Draft, Walk on the Wild Side
I prefer evaluating talent to ranking players. There's a difference. Photo by Mike Pettigano.
Eddie Lacy is an example why I prefer evaluating talent to ranking players. There’s a difference. Photo by Mike Pettigano.

Eddie Lacy was my top back in the 2013 class before the NFL Draft. After the draft, I dropped him to fourth in behind Giovani Bernard, Le’Veon Bell, and Marcus Lattimore. Why? The three factors that we learned that caused NFL teams to drop him on their draft boards:

  1. Lacy was so out of shape in pre-draft workouts that he had to cut the workouts short.
  2. Concern about Lacy’s toe injury caused the Broncos and Steelers pick another option despite their need for a lead back.
  3. Concern that Lacy’s personality – which isn’t all-football, all the time – meant he didn’t have the emotional makeup of a good football player.

When I downgraded Lacy in my post-draft publication, I only knew about the first two concerns. If I knew about the third one I would have ignored it because it’s ridiculous. More on that one later.

As a football talent evaluator, I dislike post-draft rankings. I understand their value, but I’m a talent purist at heart. I prefer to examine what a player can do; what he can’t; and project what he might be able to learn. Character, situation, and injury are factors that more often than not require an investigator, a coach, and a doctor to discuss with any level of expertise and even then there’s a lot of speculation.

Unless I was with a team and creating a real draft board, I have little use for the non-football stuff. It’s water-cooler talk.

Headlining the virtual break room was infamous camp photo of Lacy where he looked more like B.J. Raji wearing a running back jersey number and wig as a prank. I thought we were going to need to add a photography expert to the mix of the collective medical and psychological speculation about things that have little to do with his on-field performance.

As a fan and a fantasy owner, it was five minutes of compelling information to consider. I was sucked in. As an author of a publication that evaluates talent from a long-term standpoint, I was glad it went away as fast as it arrived.

These non-football factors are also why the idea of people ranking talent analysts is problematic at best. Does one judge a talent evaluator by his ranking of the player or by the commentary? I think the substance of the analysis is far more important than the number. If you think I’m a good or bad evaluator because of the accuracy of rankings that have more more dynamics than annual re-draft rankings in fantasy football, then you’re missing value of what those in the profession of football evaluation provide to readers.

Lacy is one of many examples why I think the pre-draft RSP remains as valuable as the post-draft publication. The pre-draft publication is about talent. The post-draft incorporates fit and to a lesser extent draft stock. Like it or not, a player’s draft grade often dictates his initial opportunity.

And because the NFL is a hyper-competitive environment with high turnover due to age and injury, it’s understandable why most media and fans have a “what have you done for me lately” philosophy embedded within their takes on player potential. Even if it’s often the wrong perspective to have.

The concern about Lacy’s toe injury was based on surgery prior to his 2012 season. From what I saw, it didn’t stop Lacy from tearing holes through college defenses. True, it’s a possibility that Lacy hurts the toe again and is never the same player and he may have a shorter career span than Montee Ball, but if the speculation is that Lacy only plays three years to Ball’s five I’d prefer the better player over a shorter period of time.

Even if that player burns out his body sooner, management is making that player’s position a stronger priority in the off-season.

The issue that troubles me most about these takes that emerged after the draft about Lacy. The idea that teams passed on Lacy because running back doesn’t love football and teams were concerned about his work ethic or mental toughness. I’d be shocked if even 10 percent of the true decision makers involved with passing on Lacy have ever experienced a remote amount of hardship that he has.

Try losing everything you own after a hurricane strikes your town. Do you think you’d struggle with the trauma of starting over? Moving to a new city with nothing? Living with people you didn’t know in conditions that are far from luxury? If you think eight years is a long time to still be dealing with it all then odds are likely you need to get back to me 10-15 years after you can walk into a bar and order a drink. Then we can having a meaningful conversation.

Football wouldn’t be the first thing on my mind. Nor would it make me happy in light of these events. An outlet for my frustration and anger? Oh yeah. Happiness? You’ve got to be kidding me.

Some people say you have to love football with a passion to perform at the highest level. I agree it’s the easiest way to tell that a person is going to do the hard work to succeed. It’s just not the only way. If you want to live by the probabilities of templates, formulas, and prototypes then you’ll be right more often than you’re wrong. But you’ll also miss a lot of exceptional cases that make a true difference in shaping how we look at the world.

As a talent purist, Lacy’s skill excites me, but I dreaded having to use non-football events to rank him.  Fast forward to Lacy’s performance this weekend and many of these concerns were sliding off him like Rams defenders. He looked like Marion Motley with a spin move. Whether or not he has a successful career, I’m happy that in a few weeks most of the speculation about Lacy (and many other prospects) will reach the beginning of the end on the field of play.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.