Category 2014 NFL Draft

Gray Matter: RBs Andre Williams and Anthony Dixon

April 13, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back

Anthony Dixon isn't the athlete Andrew Williams is, but he has shown more as a football player. Photo by Jeffery Beall. — Anthony Dixon isn’t the athlete Andre Williams is, but he has shown more as a football player. Photo by Jeffery Beall.

I see the good from Andre Williams, but will he show it often enough on the field?

I’m often asked about my “misses.” Who were they? What did I learn?

The answers aren’t always as simple as the questions. Sometimes the outcome is wrong, but the process is right.

Cincinnati running back Cedric Peerman hasn’t shown me anything contrary to my take on the rare occasions he gets to carry the football. The fact that Jay Gruden admitted that they didn’t know what they had in Peerman adds to my take that Peerman could have developed into a starter if given a true shot.

Sometimes the arriving at a decisive take on a player isn’t incredibly difficult–even with a defined methodology. There are prospects whose tape is enough of a mixed bag when it comes to pivotal components of their games that determine which examples should carry more weight is a tough call.

While it’s natural to worry about being “right” or “wrong” with the call, what I learn from the players who fall into the grey areas of my process helps me tighten it over time. These adjustments are more gradual than immediate, but the potential lessons of these difficult evaluations hold great value.

This isn’t what some people want to hear. They want immediate answers and instant adjustments.

I’m not into the fly-by-night; I’m an aspiring craftsman. I’m hoping there will be many years ahead of valuable lessons based on mistakes.

One of my not-so-simple misses is Anthony Dixon, one of my favorite backs in the 2010 NFL Draft. The runner from Mississippi State is a bruiser with the footwork and agility of a runner 20 pounds lighter than his 6’0″, 233-lb. frame.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/RjPpHxlSThk]

A sixth-round pick of the 49ers, Dixon has hung onto a roster spot thanks to his special teams play. However, the 26-year-old Dixon is unlikely to earn significant time as an NFL starter after failing to push Frank Gore for time on the San Francisco depth chart early in his career. One of the reasons that Dixon didn’t earn more chances is that he did not display consistent maturity as a decision maker.

The coaching staff expected its young runner to lower the pads and work downhill, but Dixon either bounced too many runs outside or displayed too much hesitation on plays designed to go between the tackles. The early take on Dixon is that he lacked the balance of decision-making maturity and creativity to solidify a spot in the offensive rotation early in his career.

Dixon has been pegged as a special teams performer and fullback-running back `tweener. He was a solid fit for Jim Harbaugh’s gap-style ground game, which wasn’t the predominant system during the Mike Singletary era. On rare occasions, fans saw Dixon earning time in Harbaugh’s backfield as big-lead closer.

Because Joique Bell, Alfred Morris, Knowshon Moreno, and Pierre Thomas aren’t extraordinary physical talents and they’re still making an impact ahead of more touted prospects, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s more to come with Dixon’s story than what I mentioned above.

Even so, there is something I should have taken into account in hindsight: the Mississippi State ground game. The Bulldogs incorporated a lot misdirection with its run game in a gap-style offense: shotgun draws, counter plays, and traps.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/zvHPZi7_apk]

Although Dixon communicated a sound understanding of his keys at the line of scrimmage when I talked with him about his favorite plays at Mississippi State, the Bulldogs offense didn’t require sophisticated decisions from its backs. Dixon had to show just enough patience for one set of blocks to develop and make that destination of the run work. In most cases, Dixon’s physical skills were enough to earn yards after contact if Mississippi State failed to open wide lanes for its back.

Recently I went back to watch some of Dixon’s tape. I didn’t have the same impression of Dixon during my post-mortem analysis. The athleticism, power, and agility are all still there. However, I now see how the Mississippi State offense inflated my take of Dixon’s vision.

Where I missed on Dixon was his decision-making coming out school. Where I still may hit is his athleticism, burst, and balance if the decision-making has improved.

Funny enough, I wrote 90 percent of this piece and banked it in my archives well before Dixon earned a contract with the Bills and Mike Mayock announced his love for Boston College running back Andre Williams.

Williams is a big back like Dixon, but his evaluation has some difficult moments. The 6’0″, 227-pound Williams stars in a gap style ground game that loves to run traps, counters, and power. Both runners have enough quickness to move the chains, but neither shows the NFL speed to defeat a good angle from a defender in pursuit.

What adds complexity to this comparison contrast is that Dixon displays better athleticism on the field than Williams despite the fact that the Boston College back had an impressive combine. Williams’ physical skills don’t show up with the frequency that I expect from the top prospects at the position.

The professional market is too saturated with running backs who show more on a consistent basis for me to have as positive of a take on Williams as Mayock.

Even so, I like to explore the grey matter of my evaluations. Here are three plays that reveal glimpses of Williams’ best.

Power

Pair Williams in a power running game and the Boston College starter can get the job done. Here’s a 13-yard gain from a 23 personnel I-formation run against nine defenders in the box. The Eagles pulls its left guard to the right side and leads Williams to the hole behind his fullback.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/1lafGKn45VA?start=105]

Williams demonstrates some press-and-cut ability on this play. Ideally, I’d want to see Williams approach the hole outside the guard’s shoulder and then cut inside the guard at the line of scrimmage to exploit the hole opening to the inside.

Instead, Williams is positioned in the middle of the guard’s back. Yet it’s still a good enough spot for him to press the lane with a jab step to the outside shoulder and cut to the inside.

This move compels the defender on the pulling guard to peek outside and a beat late as Williams enters the hole inside the guard.

Williams gains three yards untouched through the hole and has some momentum to face the safety coming down hill and poised to deliver a shot to the runner’s legs. Williams’ knee level is high enough to repel the contact, maintain his balance, and earn another six yards before finishing the play coming over top of the defensive back making the tackle.

This is one of the better runs I’ve seen from Williams against contact where he doesn’t have a massive down-hill head start. Unfortunately, there aren’t many of them–even this one play doesn’t tip the scales for me over the wealth of plays where he’s unable to bully in tight spaces.

Here’s another nice press and cut from Williams from a heavy I-formation set.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/1lafGKn45VA?start=137]

Note the direction of the defense’s helmets after he executes the press and cutback. If Williams can make these cuts with this level of patience, agility, and burst more often in the NFL than he did at Boston College it will force me to re-examine how a small sample of plays can carry more weight despite being the exception to the rule in a player’s portfolio.

Speed

Williams’ difficulty opening his stride to reach that extra gear he showed at the combine limits his upside in the NFL. Here’s a play that would be a much bigger gain if Williams had elite speed for the NFL game. However, it’s a good example of enough speed to produce as a starter in the league.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/1lafGKn45VA?start=49]

As Williams reaches the flat, the safety has a bead on the running back. In this situation, Williams opens his stride enough that the safety cannot reach the runner at the eight-yard mark of the run.

Williams out runs this angle of the defender and earns another 16 yards beyond that safety’s original target trajectory. If not for the cornerback, Williams is off to the races.

But at this point, I have to stick with my take that Williams in pads doesn’t match his exploits in shorts. If not for Mike Mayock’s take likely reflecting the tenor of the NFL, I would have expected the Boston College starter to get a call in April as a late draft pick.

In the hyper-competitive world of professional sports and the perception-fueled environment of bloggers and fans, my assessment doesn’t sound complimentary. However, I remind you that for a player with an excellent mental-emotional approach to his career, the NFL Draft is only the beginning.

If the Boston College runner can demonstrate these skills with greater consistency, I’ll be eating my words. Of course, lessons like these offer plenty of nutritional value and build stronger bones for evaluation processes.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: Pitt DT Aaron Donald

April 9, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players

Aaron Donald is as promising as Geno Atkins Photo by Ashley and Matthew Hemingway.

I’m not a betting man, but if I were, Aaron Donald would be one of two players in this deep draft class that I’d have no reservations betting on as a future star.

Futures: Pittsburgh DT Aaron Donald

By Matt Waldman

Help Wanted: Football Players

Candidates must demonstrate efficiency and productivity while performing in a fast-paced, stressful environment. Speed, quickness, and strength required. Toughness and quick thinking are essential. Prototypical height and weight for role preferred, but will consider candidates with exceptional compensatory skills. Major college program is a plus. Relocation required. Job entails travel for 50-65 percent of work year. Submit a portfolio of work, at least five professional and five character references, and a working phone number to NFL.com. Eligible candidates should expect to receive a call in May for a summer training program at one of our 32 branches.

If only it was as easy as it looks on the page.

I don’t get to visit often, but I’m a big fan of The Sideline View. Lance Zierlein, John Harris and the rest of the team provide the goods on the game. As I examined the first round of Zierlein’s latest mock draft, it struck me that for a class noted for its depth of talent, there are few “safe” picks.

Greg Robinson, Khalil Mack, Ryan Shazier, Eric Ebron, Dee Ford, Johnny Manziel, and Anthony Barr have a ton of upside, but they are just a small list of the top 50 players on draft boards with notable shortcomings. However, most starters in the NFL have flaws and the NFL knows that the upside it covets from these headliners outweighs the risks.

Some of these flaws have nothing to do with a player’s work on the field. Jadeveon Clowney and C.J. Mosley are two prospects with unquestioned skill, but rumors about Clowney’s work ethic (which I think are questionable in origin) and Mosley’s injury history generate lingering questions about them fulfilling their vast promise.

My short list of safe picks — barring issues of character and injury — includes Jake Matthews, Sammy Watkins, Teddy Bridgewater, Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, and Darqueze Dennard. I am confident that barring catastrophic injury, these six players will at least provide 6-to-8 years of serviceable work as starters in the NFL.

If I were a betting man, there are only two players in Zierlein’s mock draft that I’d wager on developing into Pro Bowl players. The one from the above list of players is Watkins, and the other is Aaron Donald. Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

Boiler Room: Nebraska WR Quincy Enunwa

April 8, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Wide Receiver

Enunwa inspires reflection about innocence and experience. Photo by Craig Chandler.

Ever think about how you’ve changed over the years? What did the “old you” think, say, and do versus the “new you?” This is something I think about all the time when I’m studying football players.

I remember the first time I saw Terrell Owens as a rookie. He wasn’t the rocked-up, raging force of productivity and insecurity that he became, but the quickness, balance, and power was all there. He caught a hitch in the left flat, gave a little shake to avoid the corner, spun off a linebacker’s hit, stiff-armed a safety, and carried two more defenders for the first down.

It only took one play and I was sold.

That was the old me–a fan, not a football writer. I’d see something spine-tingling from a player and I’d allow that feeling to wash over me and permeate my entire take. Now, I’m more circumspect about what immediately impresses me.

However, it’s not always a good thing. We allow our experiences to filter out too much of what’s wondrous and joyful about the world. Sometimes those inexperienced takes get to the core truth in ways that more experienced viewpoints can over analyze and discard. There’s something to maintaining (or maybe the more accurate word is “re-cultivating”) a certain amount of innocence to your internal viewfinder.

Nebraska wide receiver Quincy Enunwa inspires this kind of reflection on my end. When I first watched the Cornhusker wideout tear through a secondary with the ball in his hands, I saw flashes of Terrell Owens. Then I saw Enunwa catch–and drop–the ball with hands techniques that need enough work to have concerns about his game and the ambivalence returns.

Although my RSP ranking of Enunwa reflects more of my ambivalence about his NFL potential, this Boiler Room post encapsulates the receiver’s upside with a 35-yard gain through the Purdue Boilermakers’ defense in 2013.

When I witness moments like these, I imagine if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director would I include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights? The Boiler Room Series is focused on prospects that I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

With the depth of this wide receiver class, Enunwa is a player I expect to go after the fourth round. However, I know there are fans of his potential and today I’m going to show you a play that you won’t find on a highlight reel on the Internet.

He gained 35 on a 3rd and 5 pass with 2:37 in the half from a 2×2 receiver 10 personnel shotgun set. He was the outside right receiver running a stop route, but he spotted the opening behind the shallow defender and drifted the inside. Enunwa caught the ball over his back shoulder with his hands close to his body just outside the right hash. Good adjustment and catch with his hands. The rest is pure viewing candy (click the enlarge arrow at the bottom right of the video to see this at full size).

[wpvideo rmpFk61f]

Enunwa packs enough athleticism and skill as a ball carrier on a run across the width of the field to evoke memories of a young Terrell Owens or Dez Bryant: burst, jukes, a hurdle, a spin, power, balance, and a couple of stiff arms. It’s a play you don’t easily forget.

If anything, it’s a play that is very difficult to balance with Enunwa’s flaws:

Enunwa doesn’t catch the ball with his fingertips. But man, you saw him tear through Purdue, right?

Enunwa isn’t sharp enough with his turns. Dude, just get him the ball and he’ll wreak havoc just like that catch over the middle at Purdue

Enunwa has difficulty tracking short passes. Screw the verticals, just feed him the ball with a running start in the shallow zone and he’s money!

The innocent football fan in me says Enunwa will be a good NFL starter. The experienced football writer says Enunwa might be a good NFL starter if he improves his overall game, but it’s far from a guarantee. The older–and maybe wiser–analyst says Enunwa can help a team immediately as part of a starting rotation, but if he’s going to reach his potential as player difficult to stop on every down he has a lot of work ahead.

But Matt, did you see Enunwa . . .

2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio Video Tour

April 7, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, RSP Publication

“I truly think the RSP is the best draft resource money can buy.” -Ryan Lownes, Draft Analyst for DraftBreakdown.com

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0Z7P_15wdc&w=420&h=315]

New to the RSP? Wondering what it looks like? Above is a 30-minute tour. At the bottom is a shorter tour of the publication:

What’s inside.
How to navigate it.
An explanation of the scoring.
How it all fits together as a concept.

Like what you see? Download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio now . Remember, you also get the post-draft publication free, which I upload one week after the NFL Draft and contains revised rankings based on draft position, team fit, and talent. You also get mock draft data and value analysis based on these early drafts.

Remember, 10 percent of each sale goes to Darkness to Light to help prevent and/or address sexual abuse in communities across the country.

Short Tour

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRsQwtyOCDM&feature=share]

“Purchased the RSP by @MattWaldman for the first time. Lots of “holy ____”‘s were said in an empty house. Incredible work” Zack Henkle via Twitter

Boiler Room: Utah TE Jake Murphy

April 6, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Tight End

Utah’s Jake Murphy is a safe, late-round pick with upside when called upon to do more.

One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect. A series I started last spring at the RSP blog to remedy it is The Boiler Room.

I often see a play unfold while I’m studying a prospect that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director would I include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights?

In every draft, there are players who lack the attention-grabbing athleticism and production to capture the attention of the media and draftniks, but have something to offer the NFL. In a draft as deep as this one, these players are late-round picks at best.

Jake Murphy is one of these prospects who might be off the public’s collective radar, but has potential value to an organization for his hands, athleticism, and special teams play. However, the tight end from Utah is 25 years old and it is a point that some draftniks will nitpick.

I only see the logic of lowering the value of a player if he has an early round grade and the expectation is for him to become a long-term starter. Correct me if I’m wrong, but not a lot of players earn second contracts with their original teams. The first contract is generally a deal of 2-4 years, the average lifespan of an NFL career.

If I were a GM, why would I sweat the age of a 25 year-old tight end? If he was 28, different story, but 25 is young enough that if he develops beyond expectation, he still has another 2-3 years of good production before thinking about athletic decline–and I’m not including the top athletes at this position who play into their mid-30s.

Murphy isn’t seen as a top athlete at the position, but his physical skills aren’t bad by any stretch of the imagination. His short shuttle was the second-best time for his position at the combine and his three-cone drill was fourth among participating tight ends. The potential to get off the line and change direction with suddenness is there and that’s good enough for a player of Murphy’s skills to threaten a seam and win in the short zone.

And Murphy’s skills are difficult to teach because despite lacking high-end tools, he integrates the tools he has in a way that some high-end athletes can never succeed in doing. The two plays below are good examples.

The first is a 3rd and 13 pass from the 16 of Colorado early in the first quarter. Murphy is next to the right tackle in a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel pistol. The outside linebacker near the line of scrimmage is shaded outside and the safety is 10 yards deep, also with outside shade. Murphy gets a clean release inside and executes a double move, forcing the safety to bite on the shallow stem of a stop-and-go that Murphy breaks to the inside for a touchdown catch.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXO3y5lXFlI&start=44&w=560&h=315]

There are a few things I like about Murphy’s performance on this play. Although the double move isn’t the best route I’ve seen, his footwork is precise and fluid. It’s a good sign that he can do more as a route runner. He also sinks his hips and turns his outside shoulder to sell the potential break on the stop route. This baits the safety to break outside.

A tight end with good feet and hip flexibility has the promise to develop into a good NFL route runner. What he showed here is a good reflection of what he did at the combine. He’s quick enough to do the job and savvy enough to trick an opponent.

Murphy finishes the play with a good catch of the target placed above his head. The athleticism and awareness of the reception is another thing I liked about this play. While the beaten safety tries to work back to the break to cut off the route, the other safety is approaching Murphy from the opposite side of the field.

Murphy extends for the ball, makes the catch, and spins inside to avoid the oncoming safety at the five. This is a good display of concentration and hand-eye coordination to make the play, gauge the oncoming defender and move to protect the ball.

The oncoming safety wraps Murphy, but the tight end drags the tackler across the goal line, earning the final three yards to the end zone standing up. Murphy avoids the potential for a collision, but also prepared for it with enough focus to still make the reception. This is the kind focus an NFL tight end has to display as a matter of routine.

Here is a reception in tight, physical coverage on 3rd and 9 (note that this is the second, third-down target I’m showing you–a good sign about Murphy’s reliability in the passing game) from a 1×3 receiver, 1o-personnel pistol. Murphy is the inside trips receiver on the left side of the formation. The safety is eight yards deep with a slight inside shade.

Murphy runs an eight-step stem and patters his feet into a turn on an in-cut. Not a great route by any means, but if there’s an aspect of tight end play that should improve with experience it’s running pass patterns.

Still, Murphy freezes the safety just enough with a small dip to the inside once he reaches the top of his stem. It’s hard to catch, but it’s there. What’s difficult for a receiver to improve in his game is winning the ball in tight, physical coverage–and that is what comes next.

Murphy drifts to the first down marker after he breaks inside and makes the catch between both safeties. The tight end shields the trailing safety with his back and extends for the ball as the front side safety delivers a shot to Murphy’s chest.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXO3y5lXFlI&start=127&w=560&h=315]

The impact of the collision is strong enough to shake the trailing safety off Murphy’s back, but the tight end also has enough balance to bounce off this head-on collision, spin to the middle of the field, and gain another five yards the trailing safety drags Murphy to the turf by the legs.

It’s tough to teach a player how to adjust to the ball and withstand punishment. These two plays show Murphy getting it done. In addition to his special teams work, there are enough compelling reasons why I’d consider Murphy as a late-round pick.

I know he has a feel for the passing game, the focus and toughness to make plays if called off the bench, and potential to grow into a contributor in an offense. Even if he never earns that chance, the fact he has experience on kicks and demonstrates the skill to run and tackle means his downside is good enough to consider him. However, it’s the upside that would make me want to pick him.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: RB Bishop Sankey

April 2, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back

Bishop Sankey is part of a class of mature runners who may not have flash, but run with substance. Photo by James Santelli. — My take why Bishop Sankey is an NFL-caliber runner, but not necessarily a feature back. Photo by James Santelli.

If blocking schemes were types of questions on a test, Matt Waldman explains why Bishop Sankey would be much better at true/false than multiple choice.

by Matt Waldman

This week’s Futures contains excerpts from the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio, my 1284-page scouting report on 164 prospects at the offensive skill positions, which is available for download now. The RSP donates 10 percent of each purchase to Darkness to Light, a non-profit organization devoted to preventing sexual abuse through the training of individuals, communities, and organizations on its dynamics.

The draft community is split on Washington running back Bishop Sankey. Some consider him a top-five back. Others see a committee guy, but never a featured starter. I side more with the latter viewpoint, but I do see how Sankey can develop into a full-time starter.

The reason for this split is scheme fit. When Sankey is reading the defenders directly in front of him he can be decisive, get downhill fast, and get his pads low enough to split the defense. When he focuses on his blocks, he can press and cut back to aid his lineman’s effort.

But ask Sankey to read linebackers, corners, or safeties a level behind the immediate blocks happening at the line of scrimmage and he struggles. He gets confused or hesitant and his reactions are tentative and slow. The speedy back with quick cuts and momentum to carry a defender for 2-3 yards is gone.

I think these lapses are often more conceptual than physical. Certain blocking schemes are easier for him to see the field than others. When Sankey gets confused, you can see it with his footwork. He’ll stutter rather than cut and he winds up exposed to the defense.

I believe Sankey’s best chance to develop into a starter depends on him going to a team that runs a lot of gap-style plays. This includes traps, power, counter plays, and sweeps — run designs where linemen pull and the runner has one option and doesn’t have to do much reading of the defense pre-snap. It’s the running back’s equivalent of an exam with true/false questions.

In contrast, zone blocking is like multiple choice: it requires a runner has the skill to anticipate what the defense will do on a play. Sankey has the athleticism to create, but when given two-to-three options he doesn’t read the line fast enough to succeed on a consistent basis.

He’ll often bounce runs in directions where there’s little chance to gain yards on a play where he had a clear opportunity to diagnose it differently. Sankey also misses some downhill opportunities that require a decisive, aggressive mindset.

Maybe this improves, but right now Sankey is better in a gap-style offense that places tigher boundaries on his creative options. When this happens, he displays greater shiftiness, layers of moves to make defenders miss, and burst from his cuts.

Still, today’s Futures is not a balanced illustration of Sankey’s good and bad plays. It’s focused solely on difficult plays that often mark the difference between a future NFL starter and a future backup. Read the rest at Football Outsiders

2014 RSP Ready For Download . . . Really!

March 31, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, RSP Publication

The 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio is now available for download . . . really!

There’s a first time for everything . . .

For the first time in over 700 posts, I hit “publish” instead of save and it had to be the post I was saving to announce the RSP and I can’t even blame it on the family pet. All’s good now. The 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio is ready for download.

The 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio Tale of the Tape

Standing at 1284 pages and covering 164 skill prospects, the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio is now available for download at www.mattwaldman.com. Because a post-draft addendum is now a regular part of the RSP purchase, it has allowed me the luxury to weigh my rankings less on draft stock and more on talent until we see how opportunity knocks at the NFL Draft. Take video tour.

As was the case last year, many of the climbers and fallers in my pre-draft rankings surprised me. I look forward to sharing more of my thoughts about these players and the process in the coming weeks.

Here’s what my readers have to say about the RSP:

“You should also know, that in fifteen years of playing fantasy football (I started in 1999 – Senior year of high school), I have never paid for fantasy football information. Not magazines. Not websites. Nothing. I read/listen to everything possible as I digest information and draw my own conclusions. I was apprehensive about ‘wasting’ twenty dollars. Thank you for the hours spent doing something you love. I appreciate it. Again, quality in-depth work. I would would pay double the price. Easily. Get some sleep.” – Josh Corbett

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“I truly think the RSP is the best draft resource money can buy.” -Ryan Lownes, Draft Analyst for DraftBreakdown.com

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“BTW, I first purchased your RSP in 2011, won my league that year, had a middling team, repeated in 2012, still a middling team. How I have used RSP the most is during the season for my waiver pickups, always nice to reference your report when trying to decide between a few players. Thank you again. Oh, btw, the other 11 owners think I am lucky, lol, I am but for different reasons than THEY think 🙂 ” – Warren

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For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available NOW. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2014 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: Wake Forest WR Michael Campanaro

March 26, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

A lesson from 45 percent of the Wake Forest passing game.

A Lesson In Zone Routes

By Matt Waldman

The depth of the wide receiver class is one of the headlines of the 2014 NFL Draft. The subtext of this storyline that deserves more attention is how the volume of talent at the position generates massive variation of player grades from team to team across the league.

According to a scout that has worked for a few teams during his career, variation at the position is common. And the contributing factors go beyond the fundamental differences with how individuals within these organizations see talent.

Fit within the offensive scheme is the most obvious differentiating factor. One organization may use a slot receiver as primary weapon—an extension of the running game, a movable mismatch, or an every-down zone beater. Another team has specific defensive schemes where it needs a slot receiver on the field. Then there’s the offense that uses a tight end or running back in that role.

In light of these differences, a talented 5’9”, 192-pound prospect will have a second round grade for the first team; a fourth round grade for the second; and the final team considers the player an undrafted free agent. Expect a lot of hand wringing and fist shaking from fans and writers on draft day when receivers they value are passed over for receivers they don’t.

A receiver I suspect has a wide range of draft grades this year is Wake Forest’s Michael Campanaro. In eight games last year, the Demon Deacons’ receiver accounted for 41 percent of the passing game’s completions, 46 percent of its passing yards, and 55 percent of its touchdowns. His combine performance was as impressive as any receiver . . . Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

Futures: BYU OLB Kyle Van Noy

March 18, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players

Tyrann Mathieu might inspire an NFL team to consider Lamarcus Joyner in a similar role. Photo by wxcasterphx. — Is Kyle Van Noy the Tyrann Mathieu of outside linebackers? Photo by wxcasterphx.

Van Noy has all the tools to become a quality starter in the NFL. He also has the vision and decision-making to become potential star.

Futures: BYU OLB Kyle Van Noy

By Matt Waldman

When my friend Ryan Riddle, Cal’s all-time sack leader, says outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy has great instincts, that’s a player I want to watch.

“Some things in football cannot be coached. When it comes to play making instincts, you either have it or you don’t,” says Riddle about Van Noy’s play-making abilities that he describes as “off the charts.”

“I like to compare him to a linebacker version of Tyrann Mathieu in terms of his ability to be incredibly disruptive by knowing exactly how and when to take chances.”

According to Riddle, Van Noy, who Football Outsiders projects as a first or early second-day pick, is earning mid-round grades. He explains that a player with good instincts can be often be characterized as product of a good system –- even lucky. Worse yet, a coach can sometimes mishandle a player with good instincts because the process isn’t by the book.

I watched enough of Van Noy to say that he was often lucky, but it wasn’t blind luck. Van Noy’s good fortune comes from smart decisions, creativity, effort, and patience.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Player-Coach: Questioning Process vs. Questioning Authority

March 18, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Walk on the Wild Side

There are a lot of great coaches in football, but there are also the “Cartman’s.” Photo by Mike Mozart.

It’s not often discussed, but the quality of coaching and leadership adds another layer of complexity to evaluating prospects.

One of the great things about the Internet – specifically social media – is having conversations with people who don’t go with the herd. Ryan Riddle is one of those individuals. So when my friend says outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy has great instincts, that’s a player I want to watch.

If you didn’t know already, Riddle was a defensive end at Cal who had stints with the Raiders, Ravens, and Jets. He weaves his experiences with major college football and the NFL into his coverage of the pro football at Bleacher Report.

The other night, Riddle and I were engaged in a conversation about teaching and coaching. Riddle told me that there are a lot of layers within the teacher-student dynamic on a football team that the general public doesn’t consider.

One of these layers is how a position coach teaches technique to his players. Dolphins’ receiver Mike Wallace told media at the Senior Bowl that he didn’t have any technical instruction at his position during his first three years at Ole Miss. Riddle will tell you that his defensive line coach was exacting about technique.

Good coaches know that the most efficient way for players to execute on the field is to have the right tools. So while it may be task-oriented thinking at its finest, a coach’s first inclination is to hammer home good form.

Even at the highest level of any profession, the best maintain an understanding of the fundamentals. However, the best at any profession know when to break the rules.

It’s a tough situation for a coach – especially for some of the less experienced coaches who didn’t play the position they’re teaching and may not have mastery of the unwritten rules. Even if that coach is a former grizzled vet at the position he’s teaching, he may lack the vision to recognize productive creativity that veers from basic technique.

Riddle was a creative player with NFL-level athleticism, but his coach was drilling home technique with such exactitude that it clashed with what Riddle did best. In most cases, technique should refine what a player does well rather than limit him.

Unlike many players who fear questioning the coach on this matter, Riddle was fortunate. Even when they initially butted heads in practice about playing style, Riddle and his coach always got along.

Riddle’s coach eventually realized he had a potential exception to the rule on his defensive line. Still, he had to tread a fine line between allowing behavior that could help the team and setting the ground rules that he had final say if Riddle’s way wasn’t working.

Riddle is an example of a productive relationship between a player and coach despite conflict over fundamentals. Although football is a sport where the ultimate goal is to win a conflict, the process of doing so is built on teamwork.

It’s why disagreeing with a coach on a fundamental level the way Riddle did isn’t common. Some of Riddle’s teammates had similar gripes that they kept private, even if it meant the possibility that they’re productivity could have been better for the team. It’s is a difficult thing for people to understand how slippery a slope it is for a player to have differences with a position coach.

There are good and bad coaches just as there are good and bad CEOs, doctors, teachers, and football players. If a position coach is an insecure human being who uses his role to prop up his self-esteem, a young player challenging instruction can pose a serious threat.

As with any profession, good coaches don’t always become good coaches until they’ve been bad coaches. Manage teams of people for any length of time and there will be moments where one can mistake the difference between a player questioning a process and a player questioning authority.

Good leaders understand the difference. However, there are coaches who can’t handle either scenario.

If you ever wonder why some NFL players who seem like good citizens and even better teammates were – in hindsight – puzzling late-round picks, it’s worth considering that some of these players weren’t “difficult to coach,” “soft,” “bi-polar,” or “didn’t love the game,” as their coaches characterized them to scouts. Greg Hardy, Terrell Davis, and Arian Foster had legitimate gripes about college coaches engaged in character assassination to NFL scouts.

Riddle says there’s a tendency for coaches to over correct the small points of the game. He’s seen it to the extent that when players accept the criticism, they over think on the job and play too slow. They don’t realize that they’ve become more worried about pleasing the coach to avoid risking a bad reputation than making the play.

In Riddle’s case, his position coach sat Riddle down and talked about it. The coach told the defensive end that he was fine with Riddle’s methods, “but it better work.”

In tomorrow’s Futures at Football Outsiders, I explore why Riddle describes Van Noy as “a linebacker version of Tyrann Mathieu.”

Stay tuned.