Category 2014 NFL Draft

Futures: “I am smarter than ‘Phillip’ Rivers”

March 12, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft

The Wonderlic is great for testing future loan officers, but Matt Waldman would rather have Wonderlic failures like Jim Kelly or Ray Lewis as his on-field CEOs.

Futures: I Am Smarter Than “Phillip” Rivers

by Matt Waldman

“You scored a 32 –- that’s better than Phillip Rivers. He scored a 30. Rivers’ career quarterback rating –- at 95.8 -– ranks second-best all time, one point behind Steve Young (96.8) among NFL quarterbacks with at least 1500 pass attempts. He has a career total of eleven 4th quarter comebacks.”

Hey Nicholas Creative Media, LLC, Rivers spells his first name with one L. Does that make me smarter than you guys, or just more experienced with writing his name?

Considering that I can’t go a day without calling Derek Carr ‘David’ and I still refer to former Lions running back Jahvid Best as ‘Travis’ -– the former Indiana Pacer -– I’ll opt for the latter choice.

Nicholas Creative Media does do a good enough job describing the basic purpose of the Wonderlic Personnel Test:

“The test is a sort of IQ test to measure players’ aptitude for learning and problem solving. The possible score range is 1 to 50. The average football player scores around 20 points and scoring at least 10 points suggests a person is literate.”

But let’s dig a little deeper. Read the rest at Football Outsiders

QB Jimmy Garoppolo: Knockout

March 5, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback

For illustrations of the Standing Fetal Position Variation in the pocket, read on. Photo by Steven Mileham.

Jimmy Garoppolo’s draft stock in the media is gaining steam, but the quarterback is a player whose whole does not equal the sum of his parts.

In this week’s Futures, I wrote that scouting quarterbacks remains an untamed wilderness for the NFL. While easier for scouts to identify details like height, weight, arm strength, base accuracy, and mobility, it’s more difficult to quantify – or even qualify – that amount of sophistication that a player has when it comes to integrating these details on the field.

Reading defenses, pocket presence, touch, and placement are examples of this kind of sophistication. They aren’t easy to grade because they involve multiple variables that differ on every play.

Even so, if a team is honest and vigilant about identifying what it can – and should – spend time coaching, then it will do a better job scouting prospects. Having this kind of accurate self-assessment of its skills and priorities should help them elevate or reject prospects.

They should focus more on “knockout factors” in their scouting. Even if it’s not formalized in a scouting report or on paper, the better teams have a core identity that each player must match or he’s not on its draft board. The Ravens have it. I believe the Steelers have it. I suspect to some degree the Patriots and Seahawks do, too.

I’ve always considered having “knockout factors” in my scouting reports. Now that I’m almost 10 years into the RSP, I’m closer to incorporating them into my process. The reason I’ve waited is that a knockout factor has to be obvious.

I wouldn’t hire a musician with stage fright for a live performance. I don’t care how great his or her tone, range, rhythm, and phrasing is. I don’t care if he or she won a Grammy and an Oscar. If that person takes the stage, forgets the words, and begins hyperventilating, my decision was a huge mistake.

Certain elements of a quarterback’s game that are supposed to be the glue that hold the details together. If a quarterback lacks these elements, then I don’t care how many individual components of his game are impressive.

Ryan Riddle told On the Couch listeners this week that there tends to be more coaching of technique in college football than in the NFL. He explained that any finishing school of technique that happens in the NFL is based on peer and independent study.

It explains the existence of consultants like Chris Weinke and George Whitfield.

Just how realistic are teams about what it teach a player? Footwork, velocity, and knowledge of defenses? Sure.

How about learning not to freeze like a statue when a 320-pound defensive tackle tosses a guard aside like a lawn bag of leaves? Different story.

I fear that the way that Eastern Illinois quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo responds to pressure could be a fatal flaw for his NFL prospects. If I’m right, Garoppolo is a player whose whole does not equal the sum of his parts.

Phantom Pressure Haunting Garoppolo’s Process

This is a two-point conversion attempt in the first quarter versus a four-man front with one safety deep to the trips side of this 3×2 empty shotgun set. You’re going to see the quick drop and pump fake that are hallmarks of his game.

However, watch the pressure that circles behind Garoppolo. Although the tackle has this play under control, Garoppolo flushes left to an open space, throws the ball to the back of the end zone, and it’s too high of target for a reception in bounds.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=93&w=560&h=315]

There are two things that Garoppolo did to the detriment of this play. First, he reacted too fast to the pressure looping to his left. I shouldn’t even call this pressure, because the tackle has his opponent under control.

It’s phantom pressure and he reacts too fast and dropped his eyes from the end zone. At the same time, Garoppolo’s movement is to an open throwing lane, which is a good thing.

Additionally, this perception of pressure doesn’t prevent Garoppolo from returning his eyes to the receiver. However, the second problem with his reaction to the pressure is that he rushed his process to deliver the ball: he threw the ball too soon, too hard, and too high.

This is an example of a player who often executes these individual details with precision, but his perception of pressure triggers him to rush his process. To be fair, this is a minor example. Even top quarterbacks can rush their process after sliding to an open lane.

Here’s more muddled thinking on a 12 personnel twin receiver set with a thorough read-option fake. Garoppolo looks up the right hash and slides a step to his right before he feels pressure from the inside.

At this point Garoppolo reverses his field to the left and his plan of action lacks clarity. The quarterback sees the safety working up the hash from seven yards away, but never squares his hips and shoulders to throw the ball to the open man. When he realizes he can’t make the throw from his current position he is only option is try to get outside the safety.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=422&w=560&h=315]

The initial hesitation to square his body is another symptom of Garoppolo lacking a clear plan on the field when the initial play doesn’t work.

Here’s a more glaring example that concerns me. This is a play-action pass thrown 36 yards from Garoppolo’s release point to the receiver running the sideline fade. The pass lands outside the boundary and the root cause is Garoppolo’s release. The stance is wide enough, but notice how the quarterback never drives through the target.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=140&w=560&h=315]

Not only does Garoppolo fail to transfer his weight through his release, but he also delivers the ball leaning away from the line of scrimmage. If I could photoshop Jared Allen in a lunging position three steps from Garoppolo, the quarterback’s form would make sense.

This is the type of movement that I see from quarterbacks who are in a tight pocket, a hit is imminent, and there is no room to step through the release without the defender altering the throw and forcing an altered throw. Yet on this attempt, Garoppolo didn’t have a defender within range of making contact.

It’s another manifestation of a player who sees phantom pressure.

The Standing Fetal Position

The next play is one of the more damning examples of Garoppolo having brain freeze. It’s a first-quarter pass from an empty shotgun.

Garoppolo sets his feet within two steps after the snap while he’s looking up the left seam. Pressure turns the corner on the right tackle and eventually sacks the quarterback, but I don’t believe Garoppolo even feels the edge rush.

After multiple viewings, I believe the quarterback drops his head and shoulders into a crouch because he’s bracing himself for the oncoming bull rush from the defensive tackle.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=248&w=560&h=315]

There are three first reactions a quarterback can have in the face of middle pressure. The most common is to retreat – either turn tail and run or put it in reverse. The more advance option – when available – is to slide left or right while keeping the eyes down field and then climb to open space, if necessary.

Garoppolo exhibits the third option – the fetal position.

Granted, the quarterback opts for the standing variety as opposed to the full-blown, “put-my-thumb-in-my-mouth-and-read-me-a-bedtime-story,” fetal position. But even when Garoppolo realizes that he’s a beat away from a turf-nap and spins to his right, the initial frozen reaction affords the edge rush to reach the quarterback for the sack.

This isn’t an isolated play. These are three plays from the same quarter. I wish I could tell you this was a bad day from Garoppolo, but these are consistent tendencies in other games.

Here’s one of two I’ll show from the Tennessee State game (and there are more). This is a 10 personnel shotgun set with 2:47 in the first quarter with a three-step drop and shoulder fake to the inside trips receiver at the line of scrimmage.

Can you tell when Garoppolo senses the pressure on this play?

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTWi8kN8qnM&start=194&w=560&h=315]

Yup, it’s another game of freeze tag – except most kids get tagged and claim they weren’t. Garoppolo has the opposite problem. The pressure arrives outside the left tackle and the push up the middle forces the quarterback to drop his eyes and slide to the left.

Garoppolo checks down, the receiver juggles the ball and makes the catch, but he’s dropped for a loss. Another panicked pay.

The standing fetal position is almost as common as Garopplo’s penchant for pump fakes, but I’d rather see the ball fakes.

Here’s another strong example of this unfortunate maneuver after dropping from an 01 personnel shotgun set. Garoppolo feels the pressure from the defender working inside the left guard.

On this play, Garoppolo does a good job flushing to his right, but it’s a short-lived reaction. Once he sees the depth that the defensive end gets on the right tackle, Garoppolo drops his head and shoulders and freezes.

Unlike the previous play, he has time to work past that first reaction and spin outside his right tackle. Garoppolo reaches the edge and delivers the ball to the right sideline.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=252&w=560&h=315]

Garoppolo avoids the bad result, but his tendency to freeze first-react second is a red flag.

Coming Up Short On Potential Big Plays

As I said, it’s not just the NIU game where Garoppolo freezes like a deer in headlights. Here’s a red zone play against Tennessee State that should be a flashing red light of caution to NFL decision makers about giving this quarterback a top-100 grade.

This is a 3rd-and-goal with 8:54 in the first quarter from the opponent’s 2. Double A-gap pressure is working through the pocket as Garroppolo looks left after a one-step motion from the snap to set his feet.

Watch how early Garoppolo ducks his head and shoulders before the pressure arrives.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTWi8kN8qnM&start=120&w=560&h=315]

Not a good look. While better to take a sack than throw a red zone interception, it’s also far better to throw the ball away or climb the pocket and find an open man.

With 6:34 left and trailing, Garoppolo anticipates contact on a 2nd-and-16 at EIU’s 18. NIU sends six players – two off right guard.

Garroppolo executes a play fake from center, but as soon as he finishes his turn from the fake exchange, he anticipates contact and goes into the standing fetal position before moving into the full fetal soon after.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=777&w=560&h=315]

I understand “live for another play,” but this is the end of the game and it’s time to fight; not give up.

Here’s a red zone play in the fourth quarter from 20 personnel. Garoppolo throws the slant, but the edge pressure forces Garoppolo to alter his release and the ball comes out funny.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=722&w=560&h=315]

A clear case of Garoppolo rushing his process. I feel bad highlighting this play in today’s football environment, because don’t referees tell boxers to protect themselves at all times? Still, you don’t see this behavior among most NFL starters.

To be fair, Garoppolo will take a hit. However, I believe he only follows through with any consistency on two set conditions. Here’s a shotgun pass with a three-step drop facing five-man pressure.

Garoppolo looks to the right hash and just gets the ball off as he’s hammered off the edge. The receiver makes the catch and earns yardage as a runner.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=533&w=560&h=315]

It is an example of Garoppolo taking a hit, but there are two conditions in play: The impending hit is coming off the edge so Garoppolo doesn’t see the hit coming and the route was wide open.

More Eyes; Less Body

Garoppolo often wins because of his pace and misdirection. His drops and releases are touted first and foremost.

Combine this pacing with a play fake or a pump fake, and he can put defenders on their heels in the short game. But Garoppolo needs a change-up or teams will catch on and know that the pump fake is the quarterback’s substitute for looking off the opposition.

This 4th-and-8 pass with 2:11 in the first quarter is a shotgun pass were Garoppolo uses a pump fake before delivering the slant, but he stares down the receiver and the trailing corer undercuts the pass for an interception.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=367&w=560&h=315]

Here’s another with 5:07 in the half. Garoppolo takes two steps to set his feet and pump fakes to the shallow cross. Only one of the two linebackers bite on the pump fake and when Garoppolo targets the deeper cross, the defense deflects the target.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=466&w=560&h=315]

Pace and manipulation are excellent tools for an NFL quarterback, but even what Peyton Manning does is often predictable. The difference is that a lot of teams lack the total defense to stop him. Garoppolo is not Peyton Manning and he’s not facing a defense the caliber of the Seattle Seahawks.

Is it impossible for Garappolo to address his pocket presence? Of course not. Have I ever seen it when the issues are this dramatic? Not in recent memory.

As critical as I am about what I perceive to be a critical lack of nuance to his game, I want Garoppolo to succeed. However, if I were a decision-maker for a team I’d rather be proven wrong with him playing elsewhere.

No matter how high the sum of his total of parts may be on some scouting reports, he wouldn’t be on my board.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – available to pre-order now, and for download April 1. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Scouting QBs: Separating the Dark From the Dark

March 5, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Matt Waldman, Players, Quarterback

Being wrong about Gabbert far hurts the ego, but helps my process. Photo by PDA.Photo.

After spending an insane amount of time during the last decade studying players, talking with scouts, and paying attention to history, I have learned three things about evaluating football talent:

Scouting and quarterbacking are about detail and nuance.
Experience matters, but not like you think.
Quarterback remains the untamed wilderness of football evaluation.

These are my personal lessons. No one shared these three points as teachable nuggets from the book of scouting. The last two insights are unintended consequences of professionals making opposite statements.

After 10 years of studying football games, I have gained enough experience to see that I’m not an expert. As the great poet Philip Levine wrote, I’ve “begun to separate the dark from the dark.”

Today, I’m sharing these degrees of darkness about scouting quarterbacks. The hope is that separating the dark from the dark may one day provide a process that is a more reliable way to find the light.

Detail and Nuance

During one of our frequent phone conversations, Footballguys.com co-owner Sigmund Bloom and I concluded that the simplest way to describe good quarterbacking is to compare it to another job. Cooks and musicians offer good parallels, but the best is that of a skilled craftsman.

I used to build sets at a theater. I learned how to use a wide variety of tools. I even gained some welding experience.

Give me directions and materials and a garage full of tools and I can assemble something bought at a store after I’ve taken it apart at least once. But I’m not the guy you want to help you with a home improvement project or a repair. Unless it’s the simplest of tasks, I’d be pulled from the job within an hour.

On the other hand, give my wife Alicia a small toolbox with half the tools and she’ll not only have the job completed with time to spare, she’ll also have spotted and addressed two other problems around your house that you didn’t know about. She didn’t start working on houses until her early 30s, but within three years she owned her own remodeling company and did everything but electric and plumbing.

You need tools to do a job, but nuance to do the job well. I had all the tools, but none of the nuance. Alicia had half the tools and a ton of nuance.

Good quarterbacking is craftsmanship. There are a basic minimum of tools (details) to complete the job: height, weight, speed, arm strength, accuracy, etc. However the craftsman integrates the tools, his knowledge, and his experience to execute at the highest level of performance.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Futures: 2014 Speed Score Leaders

February 27, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back

Where Bo Jackson 2.0 could be made . . . photo by Dancelilsister.

If I had a laboratory fitting of a mad scientist, Football Outsiders’ Speed Score would have its application. What about now?

Futures: The 2014 Speed Score Leaders

By Matt Waldman

Indulge me in a bit of fantasy. Imagine an old football field. It’s a practice field at the rear of an abandoned high school with woods surrounding it on three sides. Behind the north goal post is an equipment building no bigger than a backyard storage shed with a green tin roof, white cinderblock, and a steel blue door held three-quarters shut with a rusted chain and pad lock.

Squeeze inside this dark, dilapidated building and you’ll find Craig James’ concussed son -– wrong story. Let’s try again…

Squeeze inside this cobweb-filled space and you’ll find nothing but a bench press station with a torn vinyl cushion. Reach into the tear of the cushion and there’s a switch that opens a trap door in the floor near the entrance that reveals a long, torch-lit spiral staircase made of stone that leads to the secret laboratory of M. Waldman, mad scientist of offensive skill talent.

The demented (but good) doctor is pouring over plans to create Bo Jackson 2.0. He has set up shop in the southeastern United States because of regional and socio-economic factors that point to it as the best area to produce a rare athlete for the game. He’s hacked into the medical records of pediatrician offices and narrowed the field of candidates to boys who are projected to develop into young men between five-foot-nine and six-foot-one and have the skeletal-muscular potential to carry 210-to-225 lbs.

Like a formula to determine the tensile stress of a material for an engineering firm, Football Outsiders’ Speed Score would have an ideal application in M. Waldman’s secret lab. The problem wouldn’t be constructing the running backs, but preventing Nick Saban from breaking them before they reach the NFL.

In the reality of the NFL Draft, the Speed Score provides a layer of analysis that illuminates the players with desirable physical skills. The idea is a fine one: if they’re big and explosive, they’ll have the strength-speed-agility to measure on a spectrum that ends with terminates at Bo Jackson.

But we know that good running backs come in all shapes and sizes. Darren Sproles and Brandon Jacobs illustrate how the range of height, weight, speed, strength, and agility of successful players at the position is wider than any in the NFL.

The differences in size are also indicative of the specialization of the position that has evolved over the years. The New Orleans Saints three different types of runners on its depth chart:

Darren Sproles — A hybrid of a scat-back, slot receiver, and return specialist.
Pierre Thomas — A utility back that does his best work in pass protection, draws, and screens.
Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson — Traditional power backs who do best with a high volume of touches.

The Patriots, Cardinals, Bengals, Colts, Chargers, Panthers, Lions, and Falcons have at least two runners with roles that may blend in some places, but have distinct separation of labor in others. Based on recent drafts, one could argue that the Packers, 49ers, and Washington had similar aspirations.

Specialization offers more avenues for a variety of physical talents at the running back position to earn a roster spot. However, it doesn’t create more opportunities for running backs overall.

There’s a lot of talent on the street that can enter an NFL locker room, exit the tunnel to the field on Sunday afternoon, post 80-100 yards, and help a team win a game. The fact that Thomas and Robinson -– two UDFAs -– are viable options is a testament to this point.

Joique Bell, Alfred Morris and Arian Foster’s numbers all sound the refrain that a quality NFL running back often requires a lot less of what we emphasize as “good foot-speed.” There’s another type of speed that these three possess that is as important as foot-speed, agility, balance, and vision –- “processor speed.”

It’s an attribute often linked with vision –- a quality that is difficult to quantify unless one deconstructs “vision” into definable components. I still link processor speed with vision –- it’s the mental speed that a football player sees the position of the players on the field, links it to the game situation, and executes the appropriate physical reaction to the this environment-stimuli.

Processor speed enhances on-field speed. Watch a tentative or confused player and subtract tenths of a second of his execution time. While you’re at it, begin subtracting positive plays, playing time, and ultimately a contract with the team.

Clean, consistent technique is another factor that enhances on-field speed. There are receivers with 4.3-speed that cannot separate from cornerbacks because they cannot run clean routes. However, there are much slower pass catches whose routes are so good that they earn separation as if they had great foot-speed.

There’s no silver bullet or code to crack that will yield accurate projections of rookie prospects with quantifiable precision. Because the mad scientist’s football laboratory is only a pipe-dream, it’s important to view players that score high on Football Outsiders’ Speed Score within the context of the rest of their skills.

Nevertheless, the 2014 version of the Speed Score offers an intriguing quartet of players at its top: Oklahoma’s Damien Williams, Georgia Southern’s Jerick McKinnon, Stanford’s Tyler Gaffney, and Notre Dame’s George Atkinson. I’m not convinced all four have a place in the NFL, but even before Aaron Schatz asked me to write about them, I thought each offered an intriguing storyline.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

No-Huddle Series: WR/KR Bruce Ellington

February 25, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

"+4 Wand of Instant Inferno" or as I call it, "Bruce Ellington Abstract" Photo by Dvanzuijlekom. — “+4 Wand of Instant Inferno” or as I call it, “Bruce Ellington Abstract” Photo by Dvanzuijlekom.

Bruce Ellington is like a Swiss Army knife equipped with a butane lighter that doubles as a jet pack.

A couple weeks ago, I was a guest on Elise Woodward’s show on 950 KJR Seattle talking Seattle wide receivers and the NFL Draft. Woodward asked me which receivers I think the Seahawks might take in the first couple of rounds if the team parts ways with either Sidney Rice or Golden Tate. She also asked me to consider my answer with the knowledge that Seattle has a penchant for surprising the general public with “reaching” for players they like earlier than the dictates of conventional wisdom.

By the way, the true definition of conventional wisdom is a gathering spot for lots of folks who are about to look foolish.

My projected picks for Seattle in this hypothetical on-air game were Martavis Bryant as the replacement for Rice and Bruce Ellington as the replacement for Tate. Woodward, who is one of my favorite sports radio hosts around, immediately sparred with me on that choice – and rightfully so.

“But he’s FIVE-NINE . . . FIVE-NINE!!! The Seahawks already have smaller guys like Baldwin . . . ”

Fast forward to today. What the public knows now is that Ellington runs a 4.3-40. He’s as fast as any of the top receiving prospects in this class.

What I don’t think a lot of the public knows is that the 5’9″, 196-pound Ellington is the type of prospect I’m drooling over. If I were building an offense and wanted a scheme that would allow my quarterback to look over the defense and then shift 2-3 players to alter the alignment and change the match-up advantage against the opposition (think Patriots with Rob Gronkowski, Shane Vereen, and – in theory – Aaron Hernandez), Ellington would be one of my targets.

The two-sport star from South Carolina is one of the more impressive open-field ball carriers at his position and the excellent often appears on the smallest gains. Moreover, Ellington is an intermediate and deep threat, who I believe will make the transition to a more physical bump-and-run NFL game.

The reason is his basketball skill. Conventional wisdom – there they go again in that meeting space dreaming up stupidity dressed in a logical suit – always worries that former basketball players-turned football players aren’t used to the physical play of the gridiron.

As blockers, I agree. However, basketball players are facing tight, physical coverage catching passes and driving lanes. Earning separation against tight man or zone defense is a fundamental part of basketball.

Tony Gonzalez, Jimmy Graham, and Antonio Gates are great examples of basketball players who have been among the best tight-coverage receivers at the position and changed the game. Terrell Owens and Randy Moss were pretty good basketball players. Both were excellent in tight coverage.

Don’t just think of Bruce Ellington playing football when watching these highlights below, imagine him driving a lane or working free of a defender in tight coverage on the court to receiving a pass. The fact Ellington has the raw athleticism (speed, quickness, and strength) and conceptual athleticism (when and how to move) is a product of playing both games at a high level.

Scraping Blocks and Setting Up Creases

The play below is a 2nd and 4 with 1:23 in the first quarter from a 1×3 receiver 10 personnel shotgun. Ellington is the middle trips man with the ball the right hash at the 33 versus a 3-3-5 defensive look. The play will be a bubble screen to the left flat where Ellington will catch the ball three yards behind the line of scrimmage.

The NFL has adopted this play enough that Ellington should have an immediate opportunity to earn a small set of plays in an offense with the potential for a big impact. Think Andrew Hawkins for the Bengals before he got hurt.

Ellington makes the catch, tucks the ball under his left arm and works to the inside shoulder of his teammate in the slot before sliding behind the back of he defender to press and cut through that hole his two receiver teammates open. I call this tight work behind the back of a blocker “scraping a block.”

It’s not a technical term from football, but the act of working in close proximity of blocks without colliding with blockers is a useful way to use a lack of height and loads of quickness to one’s advantage as a ball carrier.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=110&w=560&h=315]

Ellington reads the outside corner making his approach inside and slides to his outside receiver, setting up a cutback to the inside. This setup fakes out the defensive back working past the outside receiver. The result of these moves helps Ellington split the defense, get the first down, and reach the 20. He finishes after contact to gain a few more to the 17.

Physicality

Dexter McCluster is no Bruce Ellington. What I mean is that the average fan might think of a 5’9″ receiver and associate him with a player like McCluster, who is a fine football player capable of withstanding physical play, but not one who will be returning the favor on opponents.

Ellington is more along the spectrum of a faster Hines Ward. Not as physical, but he has enough physicality to block like a running back. This 1st-and-goal with 0:43 int he first quarter form a 12 personnel twin-left shotgun set at the three of Vanderbilt is a good example.

The slot receiver begins the alignment at the left hash with a defensive back five yards off. The Gamecocks send Ellington in motion across the right end offset the tight end. At the snap, Ellington works inside-out, delivering a strong punch to the defensive back to clear the lane for the quarterback sneak for the score.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=147&w=560&h=315]

Ellington may be short, but at 196-pounds he’s mighty and physical. Moreover, he does a fine job of setting up his position on the defensive back to make the play. Thank a basketball education on setting position.

I also like that Ellington can cut-block. It’s a craft that many receivers and backs fail at miserably. I watched Andre Williams attempt six cut blocks in a game against Florida State this year. He executed one with good technique and with the desired end result of knocking the defender off his feet.

The other five? Williams either didn’t use the proper technique to work across the defender’s frame, didn’t drive through the defender, or telegraphed his intentions. Ellington has no such problem on this screen pass where he opens the field for his teammate to earn the first down.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=286&w=560&h=315]

Layers Of Moves

Here’s another bubble screen from a 1×3 receiver, 10 personnel shotgun set with the ball at the left hash of the 30. Ellington is the middle trips man facing a nickel look. He catches the ball with his hands close to his body and turns up field from the 27 as his two blockers engage the slot defensive back and the cornerback.

Ellington displays another fine understanding of press-and-cutback technique by working inside the slot man before cutting outside. However, there’s another layer to this cutback that dazzles me and that’s how he combines the outside cut with an outside spin to work behind the cornerback and reach the 32.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=167&w=560&h=315]

It’s not a huge gain, but the movement in tight space is impressive. It’s a small hint of something exciting that many will ignore. However, I bet we’ll see a lot more of it in the NFL and it will earn him far more yards.

More Than Bubble Wrap

Bubble screens are like bubble wrap. They have a use and they’re fun to play with, but it wears thin fast. Ellington’s game is far more than the bubble screen.

Here is a 10 personnel shotgun set with receivers 2×2 on 3rd and 8 with 11:48 in the half from the South Carolina 33 and facing a 3-3-5 look with two safeties deep. Ellington is the slot right receiver at the right hash with a defender playing four yards off Ellington and inside the hash.

The receiver works past the defensive back with an outside release, catches the fade a step past the defender as the ball arrives over his inside shoulder a the Vandy 39 and turns up the right sideline of the 35. Ellington does an especially good job of using his inside arm to frame separation after he earned separation from the defender.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=176&w=560&h=315]

Ellington runs through a wrap to his arm by raising his inside arm to ward off the contact at the 33 and stays in-bounds another 4 yards. The result is a 28-yard catch and 38 yards total on the play. Although there’s a small juggle of the ball after making a catch close to his chest, this is not indicative of Ellington’s game.

Money Catch

Making a catch into the teeth of the defense with a hit on the way is what I call the Money Catch. It’s why Anquan Boldin is about to make more money at an advanced age for a wide receiver.

Here’s a 3rd and 7 with 10:13 in the half from a 1×2 receiver, 20 personnel shotgun set. Ellington is at the left hash at the slot man facing a nickel back that is playing four yards deep and shaded outside. The ball is at the right hash of the Vandy 31.

Ellington runs a post route between the defensive backs in the red zone, making the catch over his inside shoulder, and taking a hit in the process.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=204&w=560&h=315]

Money.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Ki-G4vWMK9o]

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – available to pre-order now. The 2014 RSP will available for download April 1. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

No-Huddle Series: David Fales, Developmental Gem?

February 20, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback

Can San Jose State quarterback David Fales develop more velocity on this throws like Drew Brees? Read on.

Eric Stoner at Draft Mecca is one of the first draftniks I know who watched David Fales and liked his game. I do, too. When I talked about what I saw in the 6-1, 22o-lb.starter at San Jose State to a scout I know, his response was that Fales has a “niche market” – and the scout includes himself in that group.

RSP: I’m digging on David Fales as a developmental guy at QB. I think he can learn to drive off that front foot earlier and integrate it to gm

Scout:Hah, I love Fales as a developmental guy; he’s an enigma though at times.

RSP: There are times when he anticipates and then simpler plays where he hesitates. Then plays against Cover 3 where I’m scream at the TV – CHECK-DOWN! Still, I love that he wants to bust your ass if you blitz him – Love that attitude.

Scout: He’s got a good head on his shoulders and seems to have some instincts; he will sail throws trying to compensate for arm strength though.

RSP; I think his footwork is really off. I was watching him vs. Brees just 10 minutes ago on some similar throws. Brees’ front foot comes down well before he finishes the follow-through. Fales’ front foot doesn’t’ come down until the ball is nearly out. He doesn’t drive off that front leg and the ball sails and lacks velocity on some throws.

Scout: A lot of times the footwork/stride stuff is an issue for a guy who doesn’t have a feel for when to zip it vs use touch.

RSP: And I see that. Up the middle, he’s pretty good. He can get into the 40-yard range with some zip at times. He often struggles on these throws down the middle he has to climb and his feet don’t get settled. But on the perimeter? Sometimes he can’t deliver a good ball not much more than 30 yards.

Scouts: He has a bad habit of not driving balls outside; I saw it pretty clearly in Senior Bowl up in the crow’s nest with [deleted]. Yeah, he’s a pretty niche market guy, but I still like him well enough to say he could be a No.3 right away with solid potential.

Here are a few things that I’ve seen in recent weeks-months that led me to broach the topic of Fales. These are visual examples of some of the things discussed above.

Pocket Presence and Aggressive Mentality

This is a 1st and 10 pass with 9:23 in the first quarter from a 2×2 receiver, 10 personnel shotgun set versus the San Diego State Aztecs. The ball is at the 35 of the opponent’s left hash and the defense is playing a 3-3-5 look with no safety deep. Five defenders at at the line of scrimmage, including two edge rushers standing up outside the tackles.

On this play Fales takes a three-step drop looking left as the defense sends all five defenders to the pocket. As he finishes this three-step drop, his focus turns to the middle of the field. Fales’ eye manipulation and skill at working through multiple receivers during a drop back is a consistent part of his game.

As Fales finishes his drop, pressure form the edge takes an inside track to the pocket. Fales does a good job of climbing inside the defender and throwing the ball from the 42 of San Diego State’s left hash to the eight. The receiver is running a post breaking to the middle of the field.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZigsJdm75M&start=78&w=560&h=315]

Although the receiver drops this target – a pass that is catchable, it’s a low throw. What I like about the throw is the placement between the S and the CB. What’s disappointing is that if Fales delivered this ball with more velocity and on a line, he could have hit the receiver in stride beyond the saety and inside the corner for a touchdown.

This is the type of throw a starter at the NFL drives on a line for a score and has commentators drooling over the throw. If Fales can develop a better arm to drive the ball 40-45 yards rather only 34 yards, his pocket presence, field vision, and anticipation make him a promising player.

Here’s another example of Fales splitting the zone defenders after addressing pressure. This is a 3rd-and-12 with 1:55 in the third quarter from a 2×2 receiver, 10-personnel shotgun set with the ball at the 45 of San Jose State.

The Aztecs’ defense is once again using a 3-3-5 look. Fales takes a three-step drop facing four defenders attacking the pocket. He looks left, turns right, and hitches a step before throwing the crossing route that splits two defenders in zone for an 18-yard completion and a first down.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZigsJdm75M&start=610&w=560&h=315]

Extrapolate the velocity of this throw to the first highlight and you see the possibilities for Fales if he can achieve greater arm strength and velocity. If not, this range of 18-30 yards will be what he does best.

It’s a range that’s good enough for Fales to provide services as a valued backup – especially a player with his pocket presence, anticipation, and aggressive mentality. I love that Fales often sees the open field the blitz has left behind and he loves to get rid of the ball fast to take advantage of it.

When the play allows Fales to drop the ball in the bucket with distance and touch rather than distance and velocity, the San Jose State quarterback does this as well as any quarterback in this class. However at this point, Fales’ eyes often exceed his arm.

There are situations where I watch Fales forgo the check-down to a running back and he’ll wait an extra beat to attack down field to the detriment of the play because he lacks the gun to hit his receiver on-time an in a tight window from that range. His tight-window accuracy is good, but when the velocity fails, Fales falters.

Development Opportunity: Footwork

One of the ways Fales misses receivers in the deep-intermediate and deep zones is overthrows. I’m sure this seems counter-intuitive after I just explained that Fales’ lacks velocity on deeper throws. However, overthrows are the result of a quarterback trying to push the ball with mechanics that aren’t tight enough to deliver the ball on a line.

This 1st and 10 with 13:50 in the game is a good example. Fales and the offices is in an 11 personnel shotgun set with the ball at the 17 of from a 2×1 receiver, 11-personnel shotgun set against the Aztec’s one-deep safety over a 3-3-5 look.

San Diego State sends five men to the pocket – three from the left side as Fales drops looking to the middle. Fales sees what he wants and off the third step of his drop, he sets and delivers the ball from the right hash at the San Jose State 9 to the 48 of San Diego State – a 43-yard throw from release point to potential catch point.

However, the pass is thrown too far and one of the problems is the arc on the ball. Fales’ effort to throw the ball for distance sacrifices the low-arc needed to reach the receiver who is open by a step.

One of the problems is Fales’ feet as he delivers the ball. He’s not driving off that front foot before the ball leaves his hand. Instead, the ball is leaving as he’s still transferring his weight. Watch how his feet move with a rougher, stilted motion as the ball comes out.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZigsJdm75M&start=647&w=560&h=315]

Now compare Fales’ motion with a player like Drew Brees, a fine deep thrower and a guy of similar dimensions who got better with his velocity after leaving Purdue. My suggestion, refresh your browser each time to queue the Fales throw and Brees throw if comparing the two.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VWV_-devqQ&start=11&w=560&h=315]

Brees’ time on his front foot while delivering the ball is much longer than Fales’. Brees is driving off that foot. Fales has to learn to do this with all of his throws.

If the rookie was forced to start in the NFL today, teams would force him to make plays beyond the limitations of his range and he would look like a sub par player. However, give Fales 2-3 years to integrate this footwork into every throw, add some muscle, and gain more understanding of more complex defensive looks, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this prospect offers value to a team as a primary backup.

And if the arm strength gets a lot better, I wouldn’t be shocked if Fales knocks on the door of that NFL starter club.

Futures: A Trio of Sleepers

February 19, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback, Running Back, Wide Receiver

WR Paul Richardson, RB Tim Flanders, and QB Dustin Vaughan are intriguing players without the big-top pedigree.

Futures: A Trio of Sleepers

by Matt Waldman

According to most fantasy football writers, the term “Sleeper” is dead, buried, and the wake held in its honor featured a stuffed mushroom dish with creamed spinach and Italian breadcrumbs soaked in butter. Considering that many football writers at the wake sported IV drips topped with Crisco, finger food is always underrated.

Sleepers are still alive in the lexicon of “reality football.” Not that this term is somehow more legit than fantasy football.

Why would it be? Reality football has deteriorated into a wild and wooly sub-genre of Reality TV.

Pick a channel or website and there are weekly installments of the NFL’s Dr. Phil and Dr. Laura, only most of them hide in anonymity when dishing their gossip dressed as pop-psychology. Call me when these 20-something prospects finish adolescence.

On another, there’s the salacious he-said-he-said drama between two former Dolphins. Each episode is so popular that Jerry Springer is taking a pounding in the daytime ratings. Those rubber sheets from the investigative report to Commissioner Goodell might come in handy after all.

Reality Football is a five-ring circus of top prospects, current players, media, former players-turned-media, and Twitter all competing for attention. There’s no room for players under the big top who lack the Q Score of the headlining acts.

With the possible exception of Dallas, the actual game of football isn’t played under a circus tent. Once upon a time, even the Cowboys caught some teams sleeping on developmental players like Tony Romo and Miles Austin.

Joique Bell, Marlon Brown, Alfred Morris, Kenbrell Thompkins, and Brian Hoyer are also testaments to the fact that sleepers are alive and well in the NFL. Here are three of mine for the 2014 NFL Draft. Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

Embracing The Craft of Player Evaluation

February 16, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft

Tony Romo is a perfect Rhorsach for football fans. Photo by Football Schedule. — Tony Romo is a perfect Rorschach for football fans. Photo by Football Schedule.

Player evaluation is an imperfect endeavor. Understanding one’s limitations is a huge step towards getting better at it.

The most compelling thing about the NFL Draft is that no matter how hard it tries, it cannot escape its humanity. It’s this human element that makes player evaluation – and evaluating what good evaluation is – so difficult.

Evaluating human behavior is a craft. It’s not science. It’s not intuition. It’s not history. And it’s not life experience.

It’s all of these things layered with perspective and applied with doses of humility, pride, and appreciation of the perfection of imperfections. It’s limitations and imperfections that are the root of character.

Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice weren’t deemed big enough to carry the load. They are two of the toughest backs in football and proven bell cows.

Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Brandon Lloyd are too slow to play wide receiver if looking solely at the speed data. However, what they do to catch a football despite these limitations is like a gorgeous birthmark on a model’s face.

Frank Gore is a former physical freak-turned-mortal whose sight, decision-making, and patience make fans wonder “what could have been” if he didn’t suffer two knee injuries that took away his immortality. Tony Romo and Brett Favre have embodied the sum of human failings, but often supplied its most inspiring heights.

I joke that Romo and Favre are often the dividing line among fans who embrace humanity and fans who think we’re better off eliminating humanity and evolving into androids.

Self-loathing aside, it’s the humanity in these players’ games that shine the brightest to fans – the production despite imperfection and the feats that for a briefest moment stretch beyond limitation. Likewise, player analysis is a willingness to both embrace and stretch beyond the humanity inherent in the process.

Every human being has characteristics of their personality that, depending on the situation, will have positive or negative expression. If one looks hard enough, this is true of scouts, writers, and draftniks when they evaluate prospects.

We all have several of these traits, but there is often a few predominant traits that are easier to notice. One of mine is persistence-stubbornness.

A positive side of its expression in my work is that I’m often thorough and steadfast with my analysis. A negative side in my work appears when I’m stubborn about process to the point that I can miss the forest while examining the trees.

I am also drawn to the underdog or the troubled soul. It’s part of my personality imprint.

I’m less likely to judge players with checkered pasts. Before I developed more life experience and caution, I was more likely to give trouble a second or third chance to the detriment of my analysis.

I’m not alone. There are scouts, writers, and draftniks drawn to players that I call bright and shiny objects – players who possess eye-popping physical skills, but lack the refined play of a consistent, reliable starter.

These folks see potential and have the vision to see how it will blossom in a positive way. But they are sometimes to their detriment a slave to it the way Bill in Kill Bill had a thing for blondes.

Other people latch onto one thing about a player. It might be the overriding characteristic that makes a player successful despite flaws in his game that others nitpicked to death.

At the same time, these people are also famous for spotting a potential flaw that is not the overriding factor for success or failure and it derails their analysis. They turn into the nitpicker.

Then there are the data guys who often generate insights, who at their best, provide a fresh, clear-eyed perspective of players and the game that re-frame the questions we should be asking. At their worst, they think any process that involves data is objective while dismissing information that they cannot yet figure out how to analyze with their tools.

I’m not talking about best analytics practitioners that I know who are working behind the scenes in the NFL. These individuals are often the first to tell you that the intuitive and the “subjective” have a place in analysis. These individuals studying the film as much as they study the data.

We all want a silver bullet – an attribute, a stat, or a measurement that will override the imperfection of craft. But player analysis is a craft.

You may not like it. I may not like it. It doesn’t matter.

Picking on Jarvis Landry

February 13, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

I promise, I really do like a lot about Landry’s game, but when a player provides good teaching opportunities, you take it.

I’ve already heard from some LSU fans who feel it was unfair to criticize Landry’s effort in an area where I stated most college receivers aren’t playing at top intensity (run blocking). Forget that I qualified the criticism with the point that Landry is a good prospect. They only see the sore spot.

I will note that Landry’s brother Gerald was a gentleman about it.

Understandable sensitivity from Landry’s big brother. He wants to see his little brother achieve his dream to the greatest extent possible. As I told Gerald, there’s no one in the NFL reading little old me. And if they are, they see quality NFL players – even stars – who have lapses with details that have a collective impact on the outcome of a game.

Sorry LSU fans, I’m not leaving Landry alone. Think of me as the coach who picks on the player because he likes him.

For those of you who need to see something positive about one of your own. Just keep watching this on a loop.

or this . . .

[youtube=http://youtu.be/6HOj7Z58c4o]

Personally, I like the second one better. I’m like the Russian judges in ice skating from the old days (might still be the same, I don’t know, I have no time for the Olympic$), I prefer the routines with a higher degree of difficulty.

With the animated shorts entertaining those in need of positive reinforcement (pacification), let’s look at something that even a super athlete like Landry has room to improve upon. That, my friends, is route running – specifically, the stem.

For those of you not familiar with the stem or “stemming a route”, Tim Gardner gives a brief overview. The main objective of the stem is to force the defender playing single coverage to turn his hips in the opposite direction of the break.

There are several effective ways to perform a good stem. It depends on the route and the position of the opponent. This 1st-and-10 route by Landry at the top of the third quarter against Auburn is an interception that, at first glance, looks like an under-thrown pass.

And it is an under-thrown ball. Zach Mettenberger is delivering the ball from a constricted pocket and cannot get the ball to the location of the flat where Landry makes his break. The lower half of Mettenberger’s frame doesn’t have any follow through during the release. See below (there’s also a good replay following the queued video segment).

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1GECUhSgiU&start=103&w=560&h=315]

However, there’s more to this play than a short throw. Landry could have done more to ensure that he makes this catch regardless of Mettenberger’s ability to deliver a ball with greater depth on this break and it all has to do with his stem.

Landry is the slot right receiver with the corner playing nine yards off at the hash and directly over the receiver. The route Landry is running is essentially an out to the right flat where he works back to the ball, but the corner undercuts the play from trail position.

The reason the corner is in position to make this play has more to do with Landry’s route than Mettenberger’s throw. Landry begins the route with the cornerback playing an inside shade (see below).

The corner is already in position to anticipate an outside-breaking route. His hips are angled to anticipate his outside break and he’s playing off Landry to the point that he can be patient with the route while keeping an eye on the quarterback.

Landry understands that to beat a cornerback in this position, he’ll need to get the defender to turn his hips to the inside. However, the receiver lacks the patience to do it.

At the top of his stem, Landry executes a jab-step to the inside and then breaks outside. The problem is that Landry’s stem is five yards too short for this route.

The reason we know this stem is too short is where Landry finishes his break (black line). The receiver makes a jab-step inside and then drifts outside to cross the first-down marker before bending his break towards the quarterback. Landry’s route is a long, looping, inefficient path that tips off the cornerback.

One of the best ways to test the patience of a patient cornerback is what you might call “playing chicken.” In other words, the receiver maintains a straight path as if he’s going to run up the corner’s hind parts.

Force the corner to turn or get close enough that when the jab-step is made inside, the corner has no choice but react. That’s selling a route.

The benefit of this longer stem is that the route has more natural depth without tipping off the break and the quarterback doesn’t have to wait a tick longer to throw the ball with greater width-depth. Note the lack of a defined angle in Landry’s break and how he drifts to reach depth.

The cornerback’s hips are already in position to break under Landry. Meanwhile, the receiver is just beginning to round his hips into position to come back to the ball. The hip position tells a lot of this story.

Although Mettenberger hangs the throw, a better route prevents this type of target in the first place. The entire pitch-catch process lacks precision on this play, but the root of the imprecision is on Landry.

Athleticism is pretty. It’s also necessary. But it doesn’t achieve consistency without fundamental technique.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2014 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: Louisville S Calvin Pryor

February 12, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players

What does this two-time All-Pro have in common with Calvin Pryor. Ask their DB coach. Photo by Dave Blog. — What does this two-time All-Pro have in common with Calvin Pryor? Ask their DB coach. Photo by Dave Blog.

When it’s all said and done, Teddy Bridgewater might not be the best Louisville player in this draft.

Futures: Louisville S Calvin Pryor

By Matt Waldman

One of my favorite football players during the past 15 years began his college career as a corner, but finished it playing both safety positions and earned a first-team All-America selection. The 39th overall pick in the 2000 NFL Draft, he started all 16 games a rookie. Although he lost the Defensive Rookie of the Year Award to teammate Brian Urlacher, the linebacker often said that it was Mike Brown who was the true leader of the Bears’ vaunted defense.

Brown will turn 36 tomorrow. Due to a series of leg injuries, the two-time All-Pro didn’t have career longevity that will earn his former teammate Urlacher a good shot at the Hall of Fame. However, Brown had all the tools of a fine NFL pro: intensity, intelligence, and the versatility to play in the box or patrol the deepest outposts of the passing game.

So when a player earns a comparison to Brown, it gets my attention. Current Texas defensive coordinator Vance Bedford was Brown’s position coach from 2000-2004. Before Bedford moved with Charlie Strong to Austin, he was the defensive coordinator at Louisville working with junior safety Calvin Pryor, a player Bedford compares favorably to the former Bear.

“He had three games in a row where he hit somebody and they did not finish the game,” Bedford told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. “He doesn’t want to injury anybody, but he brings a certain physicality that if you’re going to throw the ball down the middle of the field, you’re going to pay a price . . . Calvin Pryor reminds me of a bigger Mike Brown . . . [Brown] was a coach on the field . . . That’s what makes great players. Understanding the entire defense. Calvin Pryor is a lot like that.”

I read this quote from Bradford after watching the six-foot-two-inch Pryor against Central Florida, Rutgers, and Connecticut. A colleague of mine recommended I watch Pryor in September and I’m late to the draftnik party. However, I understand why there are teams that have Pryor ranked higher than Alabama’s Ha Ha Clinton-Dix.

The asset I value the most from Pryor’s game is aggression. He treads the fine line between disruption and recklessness, which can scare some evaluators.

However, good safeties take great angles in a hurry. It’s a skill rooted in confidence and belief of what the player sees on the field.

With notable exceptions where a player demonstrates a lack of overall football intelligence, I prefer an aggressive player with diagnostic skills that a coach can refine than a player that sees valuable keys but doesn’t trust his eyes. When considering the past path towards assertive play, I’d pick aggression over passivity as a football player’s behavioral baseline a majority of the time.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders