Category 2014 NFL Draft

Boiler Room: Penn State WR Allen Robinson

January 7, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Wide Receiver

Most believe Allen Robinson is a good prospect, so why show a positive play in the Boiler Room?

The Boiler Room Series is my attempt to capture the state of an NFL prospect’s development into a single play. This is an impossible task, but what if you have a limited number of plays to state your case about a prospect to the leadership team within your organization? If you’ve researched enough about this player, a cut-up of choice plays with a short presentation can provide a decent assessment of strengths, weaknesses, and potential fit for the team. You can read the rest of my Boiler Room Series here.

Penn State junior Allen Robinson is tall, quick, strong, and adjusts well to the football. There are times he looks like a player in the mold of the Marc Trestman’s outside receivers in Chicago. I could show you plays that make Robinson’s fan boys write me and respond with “great read,” but it’s pointless. If I were contributing to a cut-up of Robinson’s play that would inform a coaching staff what they have to address with Robinson early in his career, the play I’d choose is a crossing route against Nebraska.

It’s a simple play, Robinson is the single receiver in a 3×1 receiver 10 personnel shotgun set with the cornerback playing tight to the ling of scrimmage with a slight outside shade with 0:55 in the half at the 29 of Penn State. The receiver does a solid job of using an outside-in release with his footwork and he doesn’t encounter any resistance from the corner. The free release inside gives Robinson some cushion to accelerate and then break inside on a cross.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XjPVcKDF00&start=178&w=560&h=315]

The ball arrives and Robinson makes the catch, takes a hit in the back, and is dropped a couple of yards inside the catch point. No yards are gained on after the catch. Good route, good catch, what’s there to say?

No yards gained after the catch.

One of the best things about a crossing route is that it gives the receiver a chance to earn yards after the catch. Robinson failed to do so on this play not because of the coverage or the throw. He left his feet.

A common mistake young receivers make on crossing routes thrown at chest level and above is to leap for the target. Sometimes it’s difficult to gauge the trajectory of the ball and receivers would rather err on making the catch than not earning yards after contact. However, the best receivers track the ball well enough to make the reception on the move with their hands away from their bodies.

If Robinson can fix this one area of his game, and it’s a correctable flaw, he becomes a more productive player immediately.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Boiler Room: Ole Miss RB/PR Jeff Scott

January 1, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Running Back, Wide Receiver

Curling into the fetal position was a highlight I considered, but it wouldn’t be fair to a dynamic player.

If I were to present one play to an NFL team on Jeff Scott, the Rebels’ fine running back and return specialist, it would be of him turning the corner on a sweep only to drop to his knees and curl into the fetal position at the feet of a defensive back and linebacker. This does not sound like a complimentary depiction of Scott, but it’s more of a reality check to a potential investor.

Truth be told, this is not disparaging commentary on the 5-7, 168-pound running back’s game. If Scott wasn’t tough enough, he wouldn’t be the team’s starting running back in the Southeastern Conference.

One upon a time, friends of mine had an impromptu backyard game in Athens. Most of these guys playing were in the range of 6-1 to 6-4 and 200-240 pounds. They were decent shape for former high school football players. They were the type of 20-something dudes who would think, “I could tackle Jeff Scott.”

One of those guys playing that day was Mark Maxwell, a local guitarist and recording studio owner (scroll down to bottom of link) who is known in town for producing an album of lullabies that have sold 100,000 copies. The local hospital even gave them to newborn parents (buy them here). Mark was a skinny, long-haired musician with glasses.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/edTBdfd1ABI]

He also played college football at Georgia Tech for Bill Curry.

Maxwell was a running back and returned kicks for the Yellow Jackets. According to my friends, when Maxwell fielded the kickoff he left everyone on the ground holding a body part in well under seven seconds.

That skinny, long-haired musician ran through everyone like a hot knife through butter and he did it wearing a pair of sandals. I don’t know if this is accurate, but legend has it this was the day they nicknamed Maxwell “Sandals.”

Like Maxwell – and even more so, considering that Maxwell quit football and transferred to Georgia to study music – Scott’s game is built on speed and agility. He’s a space player on the lightest end of the spectrum of running backs.

Scott knows his limits and testing his mettle on plays that aren’t vital to the outcome of the game isn’t smart of him if he wants to help his team with more touches. Showing a play of Scott curling into the fetal position at the end of a run would be my reminder that he’s a space player and not a traditional running back.

Like Scott, Dexter McCluster is plenty tough, but well under 200 lbs., he's not a 200-lb. guy you run between the tackles. Photo by Tennessee Journalist Wade Rackley. — Like Scott, Dexter McCluster is plenty tough, but well under 200 lbs., he’s not a guy you run between the tackles. Photo by Tennessee Journalist Wade Rackley.

Develop him as a hybrid or a slot receiver if you see something about his skills that fit into the current offensive scheme. Just remember that you’re seeking chunk plays from Scott.

How he’ll do that first – and best – is on special teams. Therefore, the Boiler Room play for Scott is a punt return with 32 second in the third quarter versus Texas.

It’s a high, booming punt that Scott tracks to the right hash at the Ole Miss 27. He bounces it a few yards to his right and then uses his terrific agility to reverse field and make three defenders miss good angles to him. Not only does he reverse field, but he layers a second move into that series of steps to beat that third defender and access a lane under a block.

Is this all planned? Of course not, but it’s a demonstration that his open field game unfolds with greater control than his peers.

Scott isn’t big, but give him space and momentum and he’s a tough player to take down. Not long after beating these first three defenders on the return, Scott reaches the 40 and runs through a wrap to his outside leg.

Scott regains his balance and turns down hill bending the run behind a blocker at the 45, avoiding a defender just inside the left hash. At this point, Scott has the advantage with a blocker in the left flat and a swath of open turf ahead at the 45.

He gains another 20 yards up the left flat, picks up a block, and has a convoy of five teammate for the final procession to the end zone – a 73-yard touchdown. Here’s the return.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGtAkNYUqOc&start=230&w=420&h=315]

That’s a play that can make the collective psyche of the opposition curl into the fetal position.

Isaiah Crowell

December 30, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back

Based on talent only, Alabama State’s Isaiah Crowell is the best RB in this 2014 draft class. Talent isn’t everything.

Watch an Alabama State football game and you’ll see a talented young man in a hurry. Isaiah Crowell has a sense of urgency that transcends the field of play. Every time the Hornets’ 5’11”, 215-lb. starting running back hits a crease or turns a corner with the ball in his hands, it feels like there’s more power in his legs than the hunger for another yard, another first down, or another touchdown.

It feels as if Crowell had his way, he’d burst through the line of scrimmage, hit the sideline, disappear through the tunnel of the stadium on a Saturday, and with the assistance of a football time-portal (operating courtesy of high-end quantum physics/magic), emerge 24 hours later onto the grass of an NFL field.

Hell, if a human being could run fast enough and reverse the orbit of the earth to disrupt the space-time continuum and erase a few years of events while retaining the wisdom gained (think Superman saving Lois Lane in the 1978 film), Crowell would lace up those cleats and get to sprinting.

It’s what I see as I watch the latest chapter of Crowell’s college career. If I based my evaluation of Crowell’s NFL potential solely on football skill, he is easily the best running back in this 2014 NFL Draft class. But talent isn’t everything.

When Isaiah Crowell arrived a Georgia as a freshman, there was talk that the Columbus Georgia native had the kind of talent that folks in Athens Georgia hadn’t seen since Herschel Walker. Much of this hype was on the national level among the more photo-friendly, word-conservative publications covering college football. Walker is the standard-bearer for Georgia running backs and Crowell was a worthy challenger to the crown. A 5-star recruit, Crowell’s 850 yards, and 15 touchdowns as a freshman set the stage for at least two more seasons of big-time college football excellence.

In less than a year on campus, he failed a drug test and was charged with two felony counts of illegal possession of a firearm. The charges were later dismissed because there wasn’t sufficient proof that the guns were Crowell’s, but Georgia had seen enough. By spring, Crowell’s career as a Bulldog was over.

Two years into his enrollment at Alabama State, Crowell has no off-field issues, attends class, and has often dazzled on the field. A five-star recruit at the running back position should be good enough to transcend the caliber of football around him.

But questions about Crowell’s commitment to a team environment linger. Unlike Jadeveon Clowney, Crowell is no longer an SEC star and while it means that the spotlight is far dimmer in the SWAC, the microscope is still just as powerful.

Tim Gayle of the Montgomery Advertiser had a revealing interview with Hornets’ head coach Reggie Barlow about Crowell’s tenure with the Alabama State football team. It includes discussion about Crowell removing himself from games after suffering injuries some consider minor and not returning to the field for the rest of those games.

“Just talking to the scouts, they’re thinking that what you’ve done over these four years, that’s what you are,” said Barlow, who played in the National Football League for eight seasons. “The money won’t make you do it. The money will make you lazier and make you miss more because you’ve got guaranteed money. If the guy hasn’t done it over the last four years . . . it’s hard to over come it . . .

When you’re NFL personnel and you’re investing big money in these young adults, you want to know that, one, he’s going to play to the best of his ability to for as long as he can play and you want to know he’s going to practice to the best of his ability and you want to know that he’s going to be a good teammate and not cause strife . . .

Isaiah has grown up and matured a little bit but he stil as to understand that, on that level, there are only three running backs on a roster. There’s a starter, your change-of-pace back that is typically your punt returner and kickoff return. And your third back plays on all special teams.

I’ve had those conversations with him. What if he goes to the Houston Texans and they have Arian Foster and he’s the starter? You’re the guy that comes in sparingly. Are you willing to be the personal protector on the punt team? Are you willing to run down on the kickoff team? Those are the things he has to answer and be true to because it’ll show. You can’t hide up there.”

As someone who has questioned the party line that many draft analysts have taken with Clowney, an underpaid, minimally protected, front-line employee in the big business of college football, one might expect I’d have the same sentiments about Crowell protecting his long-term interests. However, I’m more ambivalent about the Hornets’ star running back.

Although he has played through a knee bruise, a sprained left ankle and a swollen foot this season, Crowell’s past transgressions are a huge red flag about the running back’s willingness to be a teammate and not just a star. In this sense, Crowell has generated a potential lose-lose situation when it comes to the draft.

He has to be in peak physical condition to perform like a star if he wants to even earn a shot with an NFL team beyond a spring tryout. Yet if he protects himself at the cost of helping his team, then he plays into the selfish, entitled, and immature label that got Crowell into this predicament in the first place.

The truth is that I haven’t decided where I stand with Crowell. I believe a young man who was on the cusp of earning everything and lost it all must spend a lot of time thinking about ways to best protect his professional future while at the same time showing his potential employers that he’s worth their consideration. I believe a young man might make the mistake of viewing Alabama State as a weigh station or pit stop along his journey to the NFL when he could have become a major leader on this team and had his team raving about him instead of mixed reviews from his head coach.

But I also believe that a young man still has a lot of room for growth and even with the mixed reviews, he’s heading in the right direction. Dez Bryant, Ryan Mathews, and Josh Gordon are three examples front and center into today’s NFL that maturation is a process. As long as the overall trend continues pointing upward, the NFL will invest in talent in need of maturation.

I’m the first to tell you that NFL-caliber talents at running back are a dime a dozen, but there’s a difference between an NFL talent and an NFL feature back. Crowell has feature back talent that has been evident since he set foot on Georgia’s campus.

His 19-touch, 158-yard, 2-touchdown performance as a freshman against a loaded South Carolina defense that included the likes of Clowney, Melvin Ingram (Chargers), Devin Taylor (Lions), DeVonte Holloman (Cowboys), Stephon Gillmore (Bills), and D.J. Swearinger (Texans), is an impressive testament.

Eyes-Feet-Pad Level

Crowell’s first touch in this game is a display of everything that makes him special as a runner. It’s a 15-yard gain on 1st and 10 at the UGA 31 from a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel set. South Carolina plays a 34 look against Georgia’s zone play to the right. The guards on this play work upfield to the inside linebackers while the rest of the line slants to the right to block the defensive front.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/vTzsE3H8rB0]

The first thing Crowell displays is a terrific link between his eyes and his feet. If you’ve ever wondered what “runs with his eyes,” means, this is a good example. The Georgia running back approaches the line of scrimmage towards the right guard and he sees the nose tackle getting penetration into the backfield.

Crowell cuts behind his center and through the gap off the left guard to cross the line of scrimmage and then dips back to the inside towards the right flat so he can work past his tight end’s block on the outside linebacker. There is some excellent change of direction happening on this play and not all of these moves are from dramatic cuts.

Much of the best footwork is how well Crowell varies his stride length to maintain good balance through traffic, stay downhill, and set up additional blocks. Crowell takes what could have easily been a gain of 2-3 yards in the direction the blocking intended and makes one early detour that still leads back to the intended path and results in a 15-yard gain.

Crowell finishes this run by bouncing outside his tight end’s block and then cuts downhill to work inside his receiver’s block at the 40. He lowers his pads into the safety at the 43, slides under the contact and crosses the 46. Continuous low pad level is one of the things I love about Crowell’s running style, but look how low the safety is on this play. Crowell still manages to get under his opponent’s pads. This is Edgerrin James-like pad level.

Balance

This 28-yard run from a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel set is the type of play that will get all but the most jaded football fan to think “that’s a man right there.” The Georgia line slants right as its guards work to the second level to attack the linebackers and one again Crowell has to address penetration into the backfield.

The running back takes a step towards the right side of the line at the snap towards the right guard. As he approaches the exchange point with the quarterback, Crowell spots the penetration through right guard working its way to yards into the backfield. Crowell takes the exchange, hops inside the penetration, and cuts downhill at the right hash under the block of his tight end.

Then my favorite part. The linebacker screams into the picture and slams into Crowell’s right shoulder at the same time a second defender shoots low from the opposite side. Crowell’s aforementioned stride as a runner gives him the flexibility to duck his shoulder away from the full impact of the hit and at the same time pull his left leg away from the defensive back’s wrap.

Crowell emerges from the high-low hit that would end play for most college running backs and gains another six yards for the first down as he crosses the middle of he field to the left hash at the 40. He gains another seven before he encounters the cornerback crossing over top at the 30 in an attempt to cut off the runner’s angle. While navigating this defender, Crowell gets wrapped from behind by the linebacker giving chase and finishes the run diving forward to the South Carolina 31.

Watch the rest of this cut-up package of Crowell against South Carolina and you’ll see a runner with a good stiff arm, soft hands as a receiver, and the maturity to grind out the tough yards against a top-notch defense. It’s a performance from a freshman that most seniors with NFL aspirations would envy. It’s tape that also provides credence that what you’re about to see from his Alabama State tape isn’t an illusion.

Burst

This is a 1st and 10 run early in the first quarter from a 2×2 receiver 10 personnel pistol against a 3-4 look from Jackson State. The line slants right and Crowell takes the exchange towards the center before dipping outside towards the left tackle. Waiting in the hole is an unblocked linebacker.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSjr0Ldo5XU&start=12&w=420&h=315]

Watch the replay from the end zone angle and note the quickness of the outside-in move paired with a straight-arm to get past the defender in the hole. The best prospects integrate their physical and conceptual skills in a variety of ways and this 14-yard gain is just one example.

Decision Making

A vital part of great vision is balancing the qualities of patience and decisiveness. Every back errs on one end of this spectrum, but the best runners have a knack for striking the right balance more times than their peers. This 84-yard touchdown run has other components worth mentioning such as speed, balance, pad level, and second effort, but it’s the decisiveness and commitment to the crease that I value in light of the runs I showed of Crowell where he has to demonstrate more creativity and patience.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSjr0Ldo5XU&start=35&w=420&h=315]

The Hornets’ runner takes the ball from this 1×3 receiver, 10-personnel shotgun set at the 16 and veers toward the left end. If you freeze the tape at the 54-second mark where Crowell is still a step inside the left hash, there’s a good view of the unblocked linebacker working through the gap. I’ve seen my share of backs who rely too much on their athleticism and try to avoid this defender rather than commit to the intended path. Clinton Portis is a great example of a runner with excellent feet and agility who could commit to a crease even if it appears small and the pursuit is looming. Laurence Maroney could not.

Crowell doesn’t hesitate. He beats the linebacker to the crease and hits it hard enough with good pad level to bounce off a hit as he turns down hill and then run through the defensive linebacker four yards down field. Driving through the wrap, Crowell emerges in the open field at the 25, accelerates to top speed at the 35, and maintains his pace the final 65 yards.

More Skills Integration: Stiff Arm and Second-Level Cuts

This play features a second-level cut back that I’ve seen Ryan Mathews, Matt Forte, and Adrian Peterson make in college and the NFL. It’s an 11-personnel pistol set at the Alabama State 34. Not only does Crowell hit this hole with authority, he obliterates the angle of an unblocked safety as he emerges from contact with a defensive lineman.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSjr0Ldo5XU&start=162&w=420&h=315]

Crowell has to stiff arm the defensive tackle as he hits his crease and still manages to make a hard cut under the safety without losing stride. The footwork, burst, and balance to make this happen is feature back material. It’s the type of 21-yard run one would also witness in a Seahawks contest featuring Marshawn Lynch.

I asked football writer and former NFL player Ryan Riddle what it was like trying to tackle Marshawn Lynch, Riddle’s teammate at Cal. Riddle said, “It was like trying to tackle the ocean.” Crowell has a similar quality of energy to his running style – even if those possessing little appreciation for the nuance of analysis will blurt out “but Lynch doesn’t run out of bounds.” Of course, those are the same people who just read this passage and thought I said Ryan Mathews is as good as Adrian Peterson.

Crowell has the physical skill and conceptual know-how to develop into a productive feature back in the NFL. He’s the best pure runner in this class. In fact, I think his combination of vision, balance, and burst would have made him a better prospect than any back in the 2013 class. But Crowell isn’t wrapping up his junior year at Georgia with a spotless off-field record. He’s about to learn one way or the other that talent only gets you so far in this world.

I hope this time he’s had enough hard lessons to choose the easier ones.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: Texas Tech TE Jace Amaro

December 28, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Tight End

Jace Amaro has the physical skills and baseline football acumen to generate talk that he’s a future Jason Witten

Futures: Texas Tech TE Jace Amaro

by Matt Waldman

The best NFL teams possess three characteristics on the field: resiliency, intimidation, and explosiveness. Two are psychological and one is physical. All three are methods of managing the most pervasive elemental force in football: punishment.

Be it physical, mental, or emotional, or how a player takes it, inflicts it, or avoids it, punishment is a bellwether for success in the NFL. Name a good pro player or prospect and his game is an individual expression of how he arrived at slowing the cumulative effects of punishment on his body, mind, and psyche while redirecting it to his opponent.

On the football field, Jace Amaro is a powerful and explosive athlete whose size, strength, and speed can intimidate opponents. A unanimous first-team All-American and one of the two best prospects at the tight end position eligible for the 2014 NFL Draft, the 6-foot-5, 260-pound Amaro is a complete player with the upside to develop into an All-Pro with similar strengths as Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Witten.

Click here to read the rest at Football Outsiders

Boiler Room: CU WR Paul Richardson

December 23, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Wide Receiver

Colorado receiver Paul Richardson may need to add meat to his bones, but he can ball. Photo by Jeremy Kunz.

“Have you seen Paul Richardson yet?” You’re about to see why I’ve been asked this question by a follower multiple times since August.

Last week, I finally watched two games of the Colorado receiver and I get it, Richardson has flash to his game. You’ll see what I mean if you’ve never heard of the junior who has declared for the 2014 NFL Draft. I’m sold on his ability, but there is a lingering question I’ll have until he proves otherwise: Can Richardson get bigger?

Listed at 6-1, 170 lbs., Richardson doesn’t appear to have the frame to withstand punishment at the position. Anecdotal precedent brings to mind a former second-round pick of the Philadelphia Eagles in the 2000 NFL Draft who was known for his excellent hands and routes, but at 6-3, 180 lbs., Todd Pinkston was rail thin for an NFL receiver. And if I recall correctly, Pinkston wasn’t 180 until 2-3 years into his career.

Pinkston gave teammates and fans a hint of his skills throughout his five-year career, including a 60-catch, 798-yard, 7-score season in 2002. However, the Eagles’ receiver also had some well-publicized moments of alligator arms. It was an issue I don’t recall Pinkston having until he became an NFL veteran and I wouldn’t be surprised if it had to do with his skinny frame.

Adding weight is an obvious answer, but there are some individuals who have a difficult time adding it. I always wondered if Pinkston was one of them – he fit the body time. Richardson says he can get bigger, stronger, and faster when he enters the NFL. I hope he’s right, because he has the baseline skills and athleticism to develop into an NFL starter who can stretch defenses to its limit.

The Boiler Room is a series devoted to providing readers a glimpse of a prospect through a single highlight that encapsulates a great deal about a player’s skills. One play hardly ever tells the full story of a player, but if you watch enough of a prospect, you can get a feel for the plays that will do that player justice if you could only show one.

The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round. Richardson’s ability makes him a candidate to go this early, but the fact he’s a junior, missed much of his sophomore year, and others might also have concerns about his size, don’t make the early rounds a guarantee.

Richardson’s Play: Speed, Quickness, Concentration, and Hand-Eye Coordination

The play I chose highlights the base skills that makes Richardson one of the better college receivers in the country. It’s a 1st-and-10 catch for 28 yards with 0:52 in the first quarter. Richardson is the outside receiver on the left side of a 30 personnel pistol set. The cornerback plays a yard off the line of scrimmage and is shaded slightly inside. Based on the position of the safety, who is closer to the defensive end in his alignment well inside the left hash, this is single coverage for Richardson.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezRBYbkChgQ&start=131w=420&h=315]

Richardson’s release isn’t technically amazing, but it demonstrates a player with skills to build on. He takes two short steps off the line to the inside and then begins his burst outside. Richardson uses his inside arm to slip inside the defender’s body, gaining separation up the numbers and to the flat. By the time the Buffaloes receiver gets 13 yards down field, he has a full step on the defender. [Subsequent note: the defender is Ifo Ekpre-Olumu, one of the best cornerbacks in college football, and a personal favorite of mine]

Early separation will need to be a hallmark of Richardson’s game in the NFL even if he adds weight and gets stronger, because I’m skeptical he’ll gain more than 10-15 pounds of good weight. A player like Jordy Nelson or Anquan Boldin can bang with a corner while working down-field and win position late. It’s unlikely Richardson will ever be that kind of player. It means Richardson will need to demonstrate to a quarterback that he is a reliable route runner who can win the trust of his passer on plays that don’t appear wide-open early.

What’s most impressive about Richardson’s game is his skill as a pass catcher. The receiver is in full stride as the ball arrives, but the corner has Richardson’s inside arm pinned to Richardson’s side. Not does this move up the difficulty of the target, but it can distract a receiver from an attempt to make a play.

Not Richardson. The receiver extends for the ball with his outside arm, making a diving catch. He also manages to secure the ball with one arm before he lands and doesn’t lose security after rebounding off the turf.

It’s a beautiful play. It’s also what this play isn’t that concerns me. It isn’t a route into the teeth of the defense where there will be an impending hit from a safety or linebacker. Those situations will be the bellwether of Richardson’s role in the NFL: a contributor as a deep threat lacking that final dimension to thrive as an every-down starter or a primary threat capable of making plays anywhere on the field.

There are plenty of good receivers over the past 20 years who weighed less than 180 lbs. in the NFL, but most of them were in the height range of 5-8 to 5-10 and their frames were more compact. At 6-1, 170 lbs., I hope Richardson is right about getting bigger and stronger – he’s too much fun to watch not to see him play every down.

Futures: South Carolina DE Jadeveon Clowney

December 21, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players

[youtube=http://youtu.be/jrDGmnQXLgE]

Let’s presume for a moment that the claim Clowney “mailed it in” this year to protect his business interests is true. Does it matter?

“That’s weird, a Michigan helmet just rolled into my room.”
– Grabhammer, YouTube (May 2013)

Nope. Not weird at all, Grabhammer. I saw the Wolverine football hardware on my street heading north sometime in early February. It was moving so fast the facemask got caught on the edge of a manhole cover and pried the thing loose like a can opener popping the cap on a Yuengling.

The good people of Tennessee say it caused an eight-car pileup on I-75; folks in Kentucky blamed it for rolling power outages; and in the report filed with the Coast Guard, a fisherman on Lake Erie mistook the helmet for the Loch Ness Monster. I’m just relieved to hear it finally came to a stop before anyone was seriously injured.

While none of us reporting these events have visual proof of this helmet’s odyssey – an improbable journey of three and one-quarter longitudinal laps around the earth that spanned approximately 74,945 miles before it rolled to a stop in Grabhammer’s man cave – scientists have a working theory of how it happened. They have traced its beginnings – the launch event – to January 1, 2013 in Tampa, Florida.

Launch Event. I couldn’t think of a better description of what happens to Michigan running back Vincent Smith and his helmet on this 1st-and-10 play with 8:22 left in the Outback Bowl against South Carolina.

The ESPN caption of the universally viewed YouTube clip I’m about to share reads “a rush for a loss of 8 yards.” It’s technically correct, but how does one classify what happens above as a “rush” if Smith never took a step with ball in his hands? “Rush attempt” is a more accurate description. After all, Michigan did at least try a running play. There are options I like more: Mugging. Ball jacking. Annihilation.

Yet there isn’t a better term to describe the play that sent this Michigan Wolverine helmet into a temporary orbit around the earth than the phrase “Launch Event.” The ignition for the world’s first momentum-powered land-based satellite is South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. For those of you who just got out of solitary confinement, here is this proper introduction to the best prospect of the 2014 NFL Draft.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gC44nP7ClxM&w=560&h=315]

Before scientists defined the travels of this maize and blue helmet as an orbit, fantasy football writer Ryan Boser artfully named this play the “Jacapitation.” Actually, he used the past verb tense “Jacapitated,” as in “Vincent Smith’s helmet, and any sense of bravado he once possessed as a big-time college football player, was Jacapitated from his head on the afternoon of January 1, 2013.”

Clowney is a game-changing talent. Kirk Herbstreit sums it up best when he says that Clowney is to the defensive end position what Calvin Johnson is to wide receiver.

Click here to read the rest at Football Outsiders

No Huddle Series: Missouri WR L’Damien Washington

December 18, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

L'Damien Washington has the build and athleticism of A.J. Green, but he needs to go to finishing school to model this NFL star's game. Photo by Wade Rackley — L’Damien Washington has the build and athleticism of A.J. Green, but he needs to go to finishing school to model this NFL star’s game. Photo by Wade Rackley

The 2014 installment of this series begins with a rough around the edges receiver with the physical talents of A.J. Green and Justin Hunter.

The No Huddle Series is an on-field profile of prospects with the talent to develop into NFL contributors, but they are projected as talents with mid-to-late round draft grades. The 2014 installment of this series begins with Missouri’s L’Damien Washington, a rough around the edges receiver with the physical talents of A.J. Green and Justin Hunter. In the neighborhood of 6’5″, 204 lbs. and a stopwatch speed in the 40 around 4.35-4.4, there’s more to Washington than his Underwear Olympics portfolio that catches my attention.

Washington plays with reckless abandon, contributes on special teams, and despite gaps with his catching technique, he has good hands. If I’m a part of an organization that believes in targeting high-upside players that it can teach the skills to play the position – and knows without reservation that its coaches have the track record of developing said raw lumps of clay – Washington is exactly the type of player I’m targeting.

Athletic Grace And Focus

This touchdown on 1st and goal with 6:30 in the third quarter against Texas A&M is one of the best catches I have seen in college football this year.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kG-tShgiIL0&?start=346w=560&h=315]

It requires watching the replays to get a true feel for how good this catch on the corner fade is. The extension to high-point the ball and get a foot in bounds is impressive, but it’s garden-variety athleticism for a top prospect at the position. What I love is the concentration. Watch cornerback get his hand on the ball just as Washington begins to secure the ball after the initial catch at the high point of the target.

The receiver never loses focus despite the defender forcing Washington to fight to secure the ball. This is something Washington has to do while in mid-turn to shield the ball from his opponent. There are a lot of impressive facets of athleticism, focus, and toughness at play here. The full extension, the hand strength, the turn, the boundary awareness, and even the awareness to wrap the arm around the ball after his bound rebounds off the turf are all displays of skills integration that is difficult to teach. A coach might be able to teach a receiver to each of these things separately, but to layer them into one play and deal with a defender touching the ball at the most vulnerable point of the catch in the process of executing this play is impressive.

Washington’s willingness to lay out for the ball isn’t a one-time display. Here is a 3rd-and-six slant with 2:25 in the half where he faces a cornerback playing tight to the line of scrimmage.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kG-tShgiIL0&start=123w=560&h=315]

The first thing I like about this play is the break on the route. Washington is not a refined route runner at this stage of his career. I often see him raise his pads too soon on releases, which tips off his break, and I don’t see an urgency to his releases that will force a defender to bail deep and set up shorter breaks.

Washington can learn these skills. The athleticism is there and this play reveals a hint of it. Watch him take two small steps up field and explode inside with a hard break. It’s a miniscule part of this quick route, but there’s intensity and precision to the move that he needs to incorporate into other routes.

As the ball arrives, Washington extends his body parallel to the ground and makes a diving catch towards the oncoming safety at the first down marker. Although he traps the ball to his body, his hands make contact with the ball first and he has no fear of contact from the defensive back over top. Once again, you can’t teach a willingness to put your body in harm’s way. It’s something Washington and Green have in common.

This 37-yard gain against man coverage in the Florida game is an example of a decent release that Washington needs to build on. It’s a 1st and 10 play with 8:45 in the third quarter as the single receiver in a 3×1, 10 personnel shotgun set.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIngLBgVge4&?start=292w=420&h=315]

Washington and his quarterback set up a subtle double move on this play. The quarterback takes his drop looking to the trips receiver side as Washington gives a quick shoulder fake to the inside and then accelerates up the sideline. Although it doesn’t seem like much, Washington’s fake is quick and thorough enough to momentarily freeze the defender and it gives the receiver a step.

I like how Washington uses his inside arm to frame and enforce this separation from the trailing defender. The receiver catches the ball over his inside shoulder and turns inside the numbers with a nice dip to avoid the safety. Although he doesn’t break the tackle of the trailing cornerback, he drags the defender another five yards and maintains a grip on the ball as the Florida Gator swats at it relentlessly. Three years from now, Washington probably has an additional 5-10 pounds of muscle that will make this tackle even more difficult for a cornerback to make.

Press-Release Technique

Washington is willing to use his hands against press coverage, but his technique needs more refinement. Right now, it appears as if he doesn’t have a grasp of the variety of moves he can use and when to use them. Here’s a play against Florida where he turns an out into a streak and the play ends with the ball bouncing off his chest near the end line. Although I’ll talk about the end of this play in more detail, the first thing I want you to see is the initial release.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIngLBgVge4&?start=190w=420&h=315]

Watch the replay and you’ll see where Washington’s problems begin. When the defender presents an obstacle during the release, Washington doesn’t use his inside arm to work through the defender. Instead, he uses his right arm to cross over and make contact. This type of move compromises a receiver’s balance, slows his stride, and has no real strength behind it.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to find out that Washington is right-handed and this move is a product of him not having release techniques ingrained into his game. It’s a reaction to the defender and the result is an awkward move that has little impact. In fact, the way Washington earns initial separation is with his left arm as he makes the break outside. But by the time Washington achieves this distance the route is breaking open late, the quarterback is under pressure, and Washington now has to run another route to work open.

This is why it’s so important for a player to have refined technique. Washington is tall, strong, and fast, but if he has to think about what to do rather than have practiced methods that are second-nature reactions, it hinders the execution of a play.

The second half of the play is worth discussing in theory despite the fact that Washington steps on the boundary well before he reaches the end zone on this route adjustment and a penalty would have nullified any catch he could have made. What I don’t like about the end of his play is Washington’s attempt to catch the ball over his shoulder rather than turn back to the ball and make an aggressive attempt to snare the target. It’s possible the velocity of the throw was hard to gauge and Washington makes the wrong call based on this factor, but it’s also a passive attempt to “receive” the ball rather than fight to “catch” it.

When the ball arrives, Washington still has to open his inside shoulder to the trailing defender and this gives the defender a lane to break up the target. If Washington turns to face the ball and tries to highpoint it, he has a better shot on this play. This play isn’t a result of Washington fearing contact, just not having a feel for what to do on the play.

This route against Texas A&M is another demonstration of a talented athlete in need of better release technique. Washington is the single receiver at the right numbers with the cornerback playing tight and with a slight shade to the outside of the receiver on this 2nd and 10 at the A&M 47 with 1:56 in the half.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kG-tShgiIL0&?start=116w=560&h=315]

Washington takes an outside release, but the corner presses the receiver drives Washington too far outside. There’s no chance Washington gets down field in time to make a play on this ball. If the receiver dips his outside shoulder away from the source of the press and drives through his release with the acceleration he’s capable of using, his position will force the defender to relinquish contact or incur a penalty.

Another technique would have been to rip through the contact, but Washington unintentionally sustains the contact. The Missouri receiver is still playing with the mindset that he’s strong enough to push a defender off him with raw strength and hasn’t mastered how to use leverage. This is a college football mindset of a big-time athlete. He needs to learn a professional mindset of winning against opponents who are athletically on a more even playing field.

I for one believe Washington can learn these skills. If he does, he could become a star. I’m talking optimum scenarios here. I think a more reasonable expectation for Washington is for him to develop into a starter in 3-4 years and provide a team 40-60 catches, 600-800 yards, and 5-7 touchdowns as a secondary option that can stretch the field the same way a healthy Sidney Rice does in Seattle.

Futures – Intuition and Process: FSU RB Karlos Williams

December 15, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back

Predictably, Peterson was the type of player that could trigger your intuition with one play. But there are many others who do the same. Photo by xoque.

Futures: FSU RB Karlos Williams

by Matt Waldman

People love the idea of being one step ahead of everyone else. It’s why the question, “Who is a player you like in next year’s draft?” is one of the most common I receive.

I spend so much time studying the prospects most likely to declare for this year’s draft that I’m not devoting in-depth analysis to next year’s guys. I get why people want to know and I respect the curiosity, but I dislike this question.

My work is about intuition and process. The longer I do this work, the more I believe in striving for a balance between listening to that inner voice and still honoring the value of a process.

Sometimes you know the first time you lay eyes on a person that there’s something special there. I knew it the first time I saw Alicia Johnson. After our first conversation, I had this feeling of absolute certainty that I just met my future wife.

It was a beautiful moment that was equally terrifying. And why wouldn’t it be? If you have any shred of logic in your being, the idea of knowing something as a fact without having conscious knowledge of the facts is unsettling no matter how many times it occurs during your life.

But there’s a difference between crazy and stupid, so I dated Alicia 13 months before proposing marriage. I needed to know that this “certainty” I was experiencing wouldn’t reveal itself as temporary infatuation. I wanted to make sure that flash of knowledge was illuminating the true dynamics of our relationship and not blinding it.

I may be crazy, but I try to avoid stupidity when at all possible. While I fail often in this regard, marrying Alicia was one of the smartest decisions I’ve made in my life. We have been married four years and the love and underlying certainty that I felt on that first day I met her has never wavered.

I share this Hallmark moment because there are occasions where I have felt that same jolt of certainty when watching football players. Although the implications of meeting the love of your life and identifying a talented college prospect are quite different, that feeling of certainty about a player despite limited exposure to his game is often unsettling. Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

Futures: Jared Abbrederis vs. Bradley Roby

December 7, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

Was Bradley Roby's performance against Jared Abbrederis (above) a case of rust or a that of a polished receiver winning his routes? Photo by Matt Radickal. — Was Bradley Roby’s performance against Jared Abbrederis (above) a case of rust or a that of a polished receiver winning his routes? Photo by Matt Radickal.

In the case of Bradley Roby vs. Jared Abbrederis was the outcome based on rust or polish? I’ll take polish.

Futures: Jared Abbrederis vs. Bradley Roby

by Matt Waldman

Depending whom you ask, Ohio State cornerback Bradley Roby is one of the top three to five cornerbacks in the 2014 NFL Draft. Draftniks love the 5-foot-11, 193-pound Roby’s speed. CBS projects Roby as a second-round pick who could go higher depending on how close the Buckeye junior’s 40-yard dash time is to the range of 4.35-4.4 seconds.

Although I don’t create rankings until I’ve studied all the skill players I’m going to watch, I wouldn’t be surprised if Wisconsin wide receiver Jared Abbrederis is among the top-15 receivers on my list. CBS projects Abbrederis to be drafted in the second or third-round. Considering that between 2006 and 2013 an average of 32 receivers were taken in the draft – 14 in the first three rounds – that projection has some basis of logic.

However, when Abbrederis, a former walk-on, got the better of Roby this year, I think the resulting analysis from CBS’ draftnik team of Roby had a minor, but important disconnect in logic. Before I go any further, let me say that I have a great deal of respect for Rob Rang and Dane Brugler. They cover a ton of players and do a fantastic job.

My disagreement with one of Rang’s views concerns Roby’s work against Abbrederis this year. Rang attributes the corner’s performance against the receiver to rust:

After sitting out the season opener due to a suspension, the Buckeyes junior showed some rust early in 2013 and struggled mightily against Wisconsin wide receiver Jared Abbrederis, but there is a lot to love about Roby’s game. That includes his speed and fighting attitude, but he needs to stay alert for all four quarters to convince NFL teams he’s worthy of a high first-round grade.

Roby missed one game. Rust shouldn’t be a problem. Rang and his team have Abbrederis ranked 11th on their list of receivers and believe he’s a second or third-round pick. They have Roby as a second-round pick.

If two players with second-round grades square off and one gets the better of the other do you presume that the other lost due to rust? I don’t. I’d only believe rust was a factor if I think the losing player is a much better prospect.

Even if Rang personally has Roby as a high first-round pick and Abbrederis as a third-round pick, is there really that much of a difference that Roby should have shut down the Wisconsin receiver? Only if the phrase “walk-on” still hangs in your subconscious when thinking about Abbrederis.

I have long maintained that there isn’t much of a difference between many first-round talents and undrafted free agents. The perception of players generates a far greater gap among them than reality – especially when the public reads thousands of articles that reinforce a faulty perception like Russell Wilson is too small to become an NFL starter, much less a good one.

While many will expect that Roby will only get better with his technique and this warrants him a higher grade –myself included – is this really a good expectation?

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

LSU WR Jarvis Landry: The Gap Between Mundane and Extraordinary

December 2, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

Landry makes some awe-inspiring plays, but it's the mundane that he must execute to become a consistent NFL player. — Landry makes some awe-inspiring plays, but it’s the mundane that he must execute to become a consistent NFL player.

Tall, fast, and skilled with the ball in his hands, Jarvis Landry has the physical skills that excites fans and college beat writers about his NFL potential. The LSU receiver is capable of breaking a big play at any moment. Add a quarterback with Zach Mettenberger’s NFL arm strength and the needle on the hype meter kicks into the red.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/-AFSlju1-PQ]

There’s talk that Landry may leave LSU a year early for the NFL draft. It’s a smart, short-term business decision if LSU lacks passing talent behind Mettenberger to showcase Landry’s talent as a senior. However, Landry might do his NFL career a greater service if LSU has the quarterback talent for him to wait a year and refine his skills in Cam Cameron’s offensive system. Quarterback Anthony Jennings might qualify as that type of talent, but Landry might be thinking that a change of quarterbacks as a senior is a risk to his draft status that he doesn’t want to consider if he already earns a strong enough grade from the NFL Draft Advisory Board as a junior.

Landry has a number of fine plays that illustrate his positives. Today’s post is a more critical statement about details and effort. Based on what I’ve seen thus far, Landry doesn’t have any greater issue with these attributes than the average NFL prospect. However, I found two plays against Alabama that could have changed the complexion of this pivotal SEC match-up if Landry showed a different mindset.

Make Every Play Count Because You Don’t Know What Will Happen Next

The cliché “Live every day like it’s your last” could easily be “Make every play like it’s your last” because in this game it could be. I’m not just talking about injury. Whether you throw, catch, carry, snap, kick, or tip it, the shape of the football bedevils everyone.

Here’s a 1st-and-goal run with 9:02 in the first quarter where Landry slants inside to block the Alabama safety. It looks like a decent effort from Landry, but upon further review Landry’s block is the difference between average and good. It’s a play that also has a consequence that might have been avoided.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/sTQ2boEg0LA]

Watch the play on first blush and Landry could earn the characterization as “physical” for throwing his shoulder at the safety. However, it’s not a smart decision. Instead of using his hands to deliver a punch, Landry aims his shoulder into the defender. Although the receiver succeeds with landing the hit on the defender it lacks control, leverage, and technique to sustain contact.

When Landry meets the defender with his shoulder, he’s hitting a defender with equally low pad level and a downhill angle towards the ball carrier. Landry’s hit from an indirect angle bounces off the defender, who isn’t moved off his spot. The defender then makes the tackle on the backing passing through the crease.

If Landry delivers a punch and locks on his hands, he had a better chance to drive the defender away from the crease and the runner has more unimpeded room to run. There’s room for the runner to dip inside his guard’s second level block at the three to earn the score. If not inside the guard, a better block of the safety gives the runner room to make No.13 miss or run through the defender’s hit inside the five.

Landry’s choice of play is the difference between a five-yard gain and a potential touchdown.

Big deal, right? He’s just a receiver. The best teams emphasize these details and expect the highest levels of execution. Mediocre and bad teams often have personnel with the same eye-popping level of talent and skill, but the team is filled with players who don’t perform with consistency of detail and preparation.

This play and these thoughts about execution underscore the belief that we often create our own luck. Landry’s block helps his runner gain five yards, but prevented his runner a chance at reaching the end zone. On the next play, Alabama strips the runner inside the three and recovers the fumble.

Landry doesn’t deserve blame for the runner’s fumble, but his lack of detail – in this case using the optimal technique on the play before – contributes to the next play even happening. It’s why coaches and players often respond to questions about a pivotal play that dashes any final hopes for a victory that it wasn’t one play that lost the game.

Sell the Mundane to Create the Extraordinary – A Lesson For Route Runners

Speaking of pivotal plays at the end of the game, Landry is the target of one on 4th and 13 with 9:17 in the fourth quarter from a 1×3 10 personnel shotgun set. The middle receiver on the trips side of this play, Landry runs a wheel route, which is essentially and out-and-up to the sideline, tricking the defender into taking a hard angle downhill towards the flat and then turning the play up the boundary on a vertical break.

Once again, on first blush it appears quarterback Zach Mettenberger overthrew Landry in the end zone. At the same time, the CB does a great job of edging Landry towards the sideline and making it difficult for the WR to earn separation down field on the break down hill. However, watch the replay that follows this real-time action below.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/o0mSDMrrBSA]

Upon review, Landry creates many of his own problems. In fact, the throw is much more accurate than it appears. The issue is Landry’s initial move. Landry’s first break to the flat is so unconvincing that the defender is anticipating the wheel route from start to finish.

If Landry snapped his turn to the flat after his initial release from the line of scrimmage, turned his head and pads towards the quarterback, dipped his route towards the line of scrimmage to sell the flat route, the Alabama defensive back has no choice but to break towards the receiver.

Landry does none of these things and it allows the corner to maintain good depth while working towards the boundary. When Landry breaks to the sideline, the defender squeezes the receiver tight to the boundary and gives the wide receiver no wiggle room to adjust unless he gives up outside position, dips inside the corner back, and loses pace on a timing throw heading towards the end zone.

Landry is a good prospect, but these two plays – one in the first half and one in the fourth quarter – embody what happens when you don’t execute at the highest level of detail possible.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.