Category 2014 NFL Draft

Futures at Football Outsiders: Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback
Manziel epitomizes the strengths and weaknesses of a creative manager. See below. Photo by Matt Velazquez.
Manziel epitomizes the strengths and weaknesses of a creative manager. See below. Photo by Matt Velazquez.

Futures: Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel

by Matt Waldman

Management Style and Quarterbacking

In last week’s Futures on Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray, I described quarterbacking styles within the context of task-oriented management and creative management. Be it a white-collar, blue-collar, or athletic career, these are two basic ends of the spectrum when talking about management styles.

Task-oriented managers love the routine and rhythm of a predictable, reliable process. As they acquire more experience, a high-functioning, task-oriented manager knows the boundaries of his processes so well that he’ll often appear far more spontaneous to a wide range of problems than he is.

Matt Ryan and Tom Brady are perfect examples of high-functioning, task-oriented quarterbacks. They know every detail of what’s supposed to be happening in their environment and control it so well that they can anticipate most things that defenses will attempt to wreck an offense’s performance. When their teammates are playing efficiently, they appear far more creative than they are because their level of preparation helps them develop processes to avoid the same major issues that confound less experienced passers.

I mentioned Peyton Manning and Drew Brees as task-oriented quarterbacks last week, but I’m having second thoughts. It’s not an exaggeration that Manning is a coach on the field. I’ve talked to a former Colts player who has played with three other teams and he affirms that Manning is unique in this regard. His intelligence and preparation might exceed every other quarterback who has ever played the game.

This gives Manning a much wider box of operation than any quarterback in the game, regardless of style. His creativity comes in the strategic aspects of the game, but it’s rooted in having a fantastic memory and method of preparation. Last year ESPN ran a story about Manning contacting a former staffer with Tennessee to help him find tape of a play that he remembered was successful. Manning implemented it successfully as a red-zone call during the season.

If I had to make a final call, I’d stick with the task-oriented label for Manning. I’m not as certain about Brees.

I wonder if Brees is that rare individual who balances both worlds of task-oriented preparation and creative and intuitive problem solving when it’s time to perform. While the Saints quarterback is obsessive to the point that the smallest details of his workout routines don’t change –- to the point that teammates have to cut short what they’re doing to accommodate their quarterback — I’ve also seen Brees create when form and function go out the window and he does it as well as many of the quarterbacks on the far end of the creative spectrum.

I believe Russell Wilson is also one of those players. His task-oriented skills are strong. When he arrived in Madison, Wisconsin he learned the Badgers system -– a more task-oriented, rhythm based, West Coast offense –- in record time. His preparation was so strong that he not only earned the starting job without contest, he was also voted team captain.

But it was his play in North Carolina State’s offense for three years that impressed me the more than he did at Wisconsin. Wilson had to merge his understanding and execution of the offensive system’s process with his athleticism and creativity. He made off-balanced throws with anticipation and accuracy against blitzes that generally fluster most task-oriented passers. He could buy time, keep his head about him, and create productive results when the plays broke down beyond all sense of recognition.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

WR Mike Evans: Shades of Boston

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
If there's a current player along the continuum of receivers comparable to David Boston, it's Brandon Marshall. Photo by Casey Rhees.
If there’s a current player along the continuum of receivers comparable to David Boston, it’s Brandon Marshall. Photo by Casey Rhee.

Before David Boston was making headlines for substance abuse, he was a fine wide receiver. I’m not talking about the rocked-up Chargers’ incarnation. When Boston was an Arizona Cardinal and Ohio State Buckeye he had the makings of a perennial Pro Bowl performer.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/JspshPna-bs]

Even before he became a weight room fanatic, Boston was big, strong, fluid, and sure-handed. He had a combined 169 catches, 2754 yards, and 15 touchdowns during his second and third seasons in Arizona, averaging 16.3 yards per catch with the likes of Jake Plummer at the helm before he self-destructed.

Texas A&M’s red-shirt sophomore Mike Evans has skills that could help him develop into a player along the same stylistic continuum as Boston, Brandon Marshall, and Vincent Jackson. I don’t think he has the same explosive athleticism as Boston or Jackson, but he can thrive in this role in similar NFL offenses and he has earned his position as a top prospect at the position.

Here are six plays that illustrate why Evans is one of the top wide receiver prospects. Whether it’s this year, next, or the year after that Evans enters the NFL Draft, he has the talent to earn a top-50 pick.

Working With Johnny Manziel Has Helped Him

It’s fascinating that Evans reminds me of Boston, because his quarterback flashes both the good and bad of Boston’s teammate in Arizona, Jake Plummer. I’ll be writing about Johnny Football in Saturday’s Futures column at Football Outsiders. Manziel’s decision-making has maddening elements for his coaches and opponents alike, but one benefit of working with the Aggies’ quarterback is that it instills the mindset in receivers that a play is never dead.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/9MFbLEKDwzU]

Evans runs a deep post, sees that Manziel is flushed right, and makes a fluid adjustment to the outside flat, working back to the football. There are several positives and negatives about this play when it comes to evaluating Evans. First, I like that Evans’ displays no hesitation turning the route outside and working back to Manziel. Evans is absorbing the lessons of finding open zones and providing a good target for a quarterback in trouble. NFL passers will appreciate this aspect of Evans’ game if he demonstrates the same acumen as a professional. I have no reason to believe he won’t.

I’m also impressed with his open-field skills. He sees the open space and anticipates what he has to do to exploit it. This play is a great example because his back is turned to the open area he’s going to run to, but he’s aware of the position of the defenders in the area and has a good feel for their pursuit angles. Once it’s established that a receiver has NFL-caliber speed, knowing how to run where the defense is just as valuable a skill. Evans has this awareness.

What Evans lacks is also apparent on this highlight: sudden acceleration. He’s not an Antonio Brown type. He wasn’t open on the initial post and when he bends the route from the inside to the sideline, it’s a looping arc rather than a stop-start cut. There’s nothing wrong with that in particular – in fact it’s a great adjustment – but Evans thrives when he can get early position and use his big frame to stay on top of his opponent as the ball arrives. If Manziel didn’t have to leave the pocket, Evans’ post would not have been a viable target because the defender had inside position all the way.

This long-striding style is evident as a ball carrier. If Marqise Lee or Sammy Watkins catch this ball, their acceleration and stop-start agility would have either allowed them to cut across the field and beat the angles of defenders or outrun the backside pursuit in the open field. Evans has more natural power.

Evans will break tackles and maintain a good pace as a runner, but it takes him time to reach top speed. I think it means his best fit will be with a team whose idea of exploiting him in the short game is slants and crossing routes rather than bubble screens and smash screens.

Because he’s a long strider, his effort with breaks on short and intermediate routes need more work. He’ll have to improve on developing a more sudden route tree to become more than a one-dimensional option.

Evans Is Sideline Friendly

As I alluded to earlier, Evans is at his best when he gets his back to the defender and he can use his 6’5″, 225-lb. frame to maintain position on an island. This sideline fade is a fine example.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/yS-LPTl8IXI]

Evans is at the bottom of the screen on this play. he does a fine job of using his inside arm to get behind the defender, but what I like most about this play is what I’ve shown with some of the better wide receiver prospects year after year: the skill of earning/maintaining horizontal separation during the final segment of a target.  While Evans can do a better job of establishing more space between himself and the sideline early in the route to make the throw easier for his quarterback, he has enough space to slide outside during the final steps before the ball arrives.

This fade thrown from the opposite hash is a good example of Evans demonstrating consistent space from the sideline.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/mh1rgn7tB9g]

Stop the video at the 8-second mark and Evans has excellent depth from the sideline and this gives him room to turn towards the ball, high-point the target, and continue to turn his body towards the sideline to shield the defender from the football. This is fluid work and he gets both feet in bounds. If he does this in the NFL, he’ll make a great living earning quality targets on the perimeter.

Vincent Jackson is one of the best free access receivers in the game. Mike Evans has the potential to function like Jackson in a pro offense. Photo by Keith Allison.
Vincent Jackson is one of the best free access receivers in the game. Mike Evans has the potential to function like Jackson in a pro offense. Photo by Keith Allison.

Physical

Evans thrives when he can release from the line of scrimmage and get his hands on a defender. Here is an example of a fluid punch to swipe through the defender with his inside arm and take an outside release.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/KIUByQCdEXM]

Also note the space Evan has from the sideline. This is also a reflection of his confidence to win physical battles early without the need to take a wide berth around the defender.

Evans attacks the defender on this 95-yard score. Watch him extend the outside arm into the defender before releasing inside.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/MC0cs4qXnBI]

This is fluid work. Moreover, I like how effortless Evans is at bending the round outside as he breaks to the football. This is a fluid adjustment to the football with his back to the quarterback. For good measure, he delivers an accurate punch to the face of the cornerback to maintain separation once he has the ball.

When the Aggie is first to attack, he keeps his opponents on their heels in coverage as well as pursuit. This is something Evans needs to continue doing when he transitions to the NFL. If he does, he’s going to earn a lot of open space in the short game against NFL corners who won’t press him for fear of getting ripped aside and beaten deep.

Where Evans has to improve is when a defender takes the fight to him. This corner fade is a great example.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/YFgcHLwddgg]

The Alabama defensive back is the first to punch and this disrupts Evans’ entire approach to the play. The wide receiver drifts too far to the outside and splays his legs too wide while leaping for the football. The entire process lacks control and he’s unable to earn possession in bounds.

Where Evans’ fails on this play is his assumption he could rip the defender aside with brute force. His hands need to be quicker and he has to have a game plan to counter an initial punch. This hesitation over how to play it is the root cause for him not making a smooth adjustment to the ball.

When he learns to handle defenders who are more aggressive, he’ll be difficult for any NFL defender to stop in the red zone.

At this point, Evans is a college star because of his physical skills and quality hands. He’s an NFL prospect because he flashes specific techniques at the position  and acumen for the game that are well-integrated with his physical skills. Still, it’s clear that he’s still growing into his athleticism the way a young animal grows into his paws. There’s a grace and power, but he still has to learn all the ins and outs of how to utilize his tools.

Will he reach the potential of David Boston, Vincent Jackson or Brandon Marshall? I have more to study before I can make a final assessment of his talent, but I do believe he belongs on the spectrum of these players on the basis of style. Even if he falls short in a comparison of these three on the basis of talent, he still looks like a player who can help a team as a future starter and that’s an exciting prospect.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: UGA QB Aaron Murray

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback
Quarterbacks can be divided into task-oriented managers and creative managers. Find out which one fits best for Aaron Murray. Photo by Wade Rackley.
Quarterbacks can be divided into task-oriented managers and creative managers. Find out which one fits best for Aaron Murray. Photo by Wade Rackley.

Futures: UGA QB Aaron Murray

By Matt Waldman

The most glaring example of the difference between a good college player and a good NFL player is at the quarterback position. It’s also the position where draftniks and football evaluators have one of the loosest working definitions for the term “developmental prospect.” I’ve seen this term used to describe players judged as undrafted free agents who would be best served looking for work with the Canadian or Arena League just as often as I’ve seen it as a label for a second or third-round prospect.

But it was only a few years ago that the NFL draft had nearly twice the number of rounds, which explains why a third-round player and an undrafted free agent can have the same label. Considering that NFL scouting is still rooted in mid-20th century practices (I’m not talking about some teams’ uses of iPads and databases to track and store information, but the actual concepts and techniques they use to assess players), it shouldn’t be a surprise.

Georgia’s Aaron Murray is a quarterback I’ve seen projected by my colleagues at CBS as a third-round prospect and top-100 player, but whose game matches my working definition of a developmental player. The Bulldog’s four-year starter exhibits sound fundamentals, base accuracy in the passing game, and enough awareness to lead a winning football team in one of the best conferences in college football.

However, Murray also epitomizes the skills gap between big-time college passers and the pro quarterbacks fighting for remaining rosters spots in the NFL. This week’s Futures profiles Murray’s comfort zone and where his inner demons lurk. If the Georgia quarterback can expand his ability to translate what he’s learning in the classroom to what he does on the field, he could have a career as a capable backup. However, I think the third-round grade is an optimistic assessment.

A good way to explain this is a quick look at Murray’s former competitor for the starting job when they were freshmen: Zach Mettenberger, who played at a local high school no more than 20 minutes from the UGA campus. Mettenberger was the prototypical pocket passer in terms of size and arm strength and I thought he was the better prospect. After he was arrested on alcohol, disorderly conduct, and obstruction of justice charges during spring break of his freshman year, it didn’t matter – he was booted from the team and Murray earned the job.

I haven’t studied Mettenberger in depth since then, but I’m not the least bit shocked that Cam Cameron’s system is bringing out the best in the LSU quarterback and reviving his draft stock. Mettenberger has the physical skills and prototypical size most NFL teams covet and I wouldn’t be surprised if Mettenberger’s classification as a developmental player also earns the accompanying tag of “future starter”.

Murray’s developmental label might warrant starter consideration, but I think the fit is more team-specific for the 6-foot-1, 208-pound quarterback. Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers’ skills are proof that quarterbacks between 5-foot-10 and 6-foot-2 can succeed as NFL starters, but they are currently exceptions to the rule. I think Murray’s upside is more along the spectrum of Alex Smith and Jeff Garcia as the best-case scenarios with Bruce Gradkowski as a more realistic aspiration: quarterbacks who perform best in the classic version of the West Coast Offense predicated on short passing, rhythm, and movement.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Boiler Room: RB Todd Gurley

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Running Back
I make player comparisons by style of players along a spectrum of talent. The mid-range of that talent spectrum for Georgia RB Todd Gurley would be Cedric Benson. Photo by Dusty Werner.
I make player comparisons by style of players along a spectrum of talent. The mid-range of that talent spectrum for Georgia RB Todd Gurley would be Cedric Benson. The upper range? Larry Johnson.  Photo by Dusty Werner.

Todd Gurley’s style reminds me of Penn State star Larry Johnson.  For those of you who remember Johnson for his exploits with the Chiefs than the headlines he made off the field, it’s weighty praise. What they have in common is the agility of a 210-pound runner in the powerful frame of  225-230 lb. back.

A series I started last spring at the RSP blog is The Boiler Room. One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play. Yet, if I need a play to add to the highlight reel that will help a team make a decision where to slot Todd Gurley on its board, this is my nomination despite the fact there’s an impressive display of long speed on a 75-yard touchdown earlier in this Clemson game.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/wIOlc8M91os]

There are several things about this run that underscore Gurley’s physical talent and conceptual skill.

The first is ball security. Gurley is a primarily a power runner and to do work between the tackles at a high volume a power runner better hold onto the football. You’re going to see throughout this unusual run that he keeps the ball high and tight to his body. There are points during this run where his elbow comes loose from his side, but considering what he has to do during this 12-yard touchdown run his ball security is praiseworthy.

Gurley has the ball tucked to his left side on a run to the left. Even when he has stop short of his path outside the initial block and make a sharp bounce to the inside the ball doesn’t swing loose from his chest. This is one of the most common errors of ball security I see with running backs. They can execute incredible displays of agility and balance, but the ball-carrying arm flies loose of the body and the passing traffic may not tackle the ball carrier, but they can force a fumble.

A good stiff arm or straight-arm isn’t just for attacking defenders or avoiding a wrap-up. Gurley uses his free arm to work around bodies in space. He places his arm on the back of the lineman to stabilize his change of direction and prevent a collision with his teammate.

One of the more impressive parts of this run is Gurley’s feet. For a big back with long speed, he also has some excellent short area quickness. Watch him stutter his steps to slow his path to the outside, keep his balance after establishing contact with the blocker, and then plant with both feet to bounce the run inside. This is a great on-field example of balance and agility.

As Gurley exits the hole, the ball remains high to his chest. While the elbow could be tighter, the runner’s ball security is good enough to avoid the rip attempt by the Clemson defender. If you look close enough you can actually see Gurley squeezing the ball tighter as No.11’s arm reaches towards the ball.

From the point Gurley declares a path at the line of scrimmage until he reaches the end zone, his pad level is excellent. I also like how high his knees are as he approaches the defender he’s about to stiff arm. Note that he makes first contact with the oncoming defender and at the same time squeezes the ball high and tight. Once the defender makes contact with Gurley’s body, the Georgia runner begins to drive through it with even lower pad level.

Whether it’s a sharp cut, a change of direction, a stiff arm, or running through a defender’s wrap, Gurley’s ball security is high and tight. For a back with his strength and home run-hitting skill, it would be easy for him to run with greater abandon. The fact that he doesn’t will endear him to coaches if he can continue to display this good habit in the NFL.

These characteristics don’t guarantee that Gurley will be a star as a professional. Cedric Benson had excellent agility and footwork and true power. He had years with good production, but he would never be considered an upper echelon runner.  Everyone loves Trent Richardson’s potential and while he has displayed that he is one of the more exciting young talents at the position, but he hasn’t proven he’s one of the better backs in the NFL.

What this play demonstrates is that Gurley has the skills to earn a grade within the realm of Benson and Richardson’s draft scores. The difference is that the value of running back has changed enough that there’s a 50-50 chance Gurley doesn’t find a team until the second round. You can ask draftniks more about that possibility. I’m not trying to be a junior GM from my home office – I have too many players to study for playing dress-up.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece. 

You can begin placing orders for the 2015 RSP in January. 

Futures: UCLA OLB Anthony Barr

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players
Anthony Barr has a first-round grade from at least one scouting department I know. What will it take for him to crack the top-10? Photo by Neon Tommy.
Anthony Barr has a first-round grade from at least one scouting department I know. What will it take for him to crack the top-10? Photo by Neon Tommy.

Futures: UCLA OLB Anthony Barr

by Matt Waldman

Which one is not like the others? Aldon Smith. Dion Jordan. Anthony Barr. If you ask Nebraska Offensive Line Coach John Garrison orNFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah, they’ll tell you Barr is stylistically similar to both players. While Jeremiah polled five NFL Execs with a question specifically framed to link Jordan and Barr, there are people in the NFL who see the outside linebacker from UCLA as a different style of player than the Dolphins’ rookie.

A current NFL employee who has worked with several teams in the player-personnel scouting arena doesn’t see the Barr-Jordan comparison as an accurate one.

“Barr is a bit of an enigma at this point, but a very gifted athlete. I like the versatility he shows. It’s hard to think of him as anything but a strong first-round prospect. At the same time he’s a tough read; definitely not cut and dried as to where he’ll fit best in the NFL. He was very raw last year and isn’t the same athlete as Dion Jordan,” he says, explaining that the 6-foot-3 Barr lacks the length and height of the 6-foot-6 Jordan. “I don’t see the same ceiling that Jordan has as a rusher, but Barr is more versatile and very capable of playing [outside linebacker] in the 3-4 at a high level. As far as body types and skill-sets, they’re pretty different. I think Barr is closer to a raw Clay Matthews or Brian Orakpo type.”

If a college player earns a first-round grade from NFL scouts based on junior film it usually means there’s a strong case he could be a top-10 pick. This is the case for Barr, who made the switch from fullback to linebacker last year and had an eye-catching rookie season at the position:

  • 82 tackles
  • 21 tackles for loss
  • 14 sacks
  • 4 forced fumbles
  • 4 hurries
  • 5 passes defensed

These are good numbers for a player who still has a lot to learn about the techniques and concepts of playing his new position. One of the big reasons is speed. This is what Smith, Jordan, and Barr have in common.

It’s also the reason why this NFL employee doesn’t agree with Executive No.5 in Jeremiah’s August poll about Barr-Jordan that states, “Barr by far. He’s much stronger, and he’s not a one-trick pony. Jordan relies solely on speed.”

Futures: Clemson WR Sammy Watkins

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
Watkins has the upside to lap the field of some fine receiver prospects when it comes to NFL potential. Photo by PDA.Photo.
Watkins has the upside to lap the field of some fine receiver prospects when it comes to NFL potential. Photo by PDA.Photo.

It seems ridiculous to label a wide receiver with an 82-catch, 1219-yard, 12-touchdown debut as “unsung,” but consider the company Sammy Watkins kept his freshman year. The Clemson wide receiver is one of only four players in the history of college football to earn First Team All-America honors as a true freshman. The other three were Herschel Walker, Marshall Faulk, and Adrian Peterson.

A semester later, Watkins was arrested for possession of a controlled substance. This led to a two-game suspension and he missed two other contests with injuries. The result was an underwhelming sophomore effort of 57 catches, 708 yards, and 3 touchdowns. It’s what happens when a first-year college receiver ditches Walker, Faulk, and Peterson for the company of Vyvanse, Adderall, and Mary Jane.

By all means laud the talents of Marqise Lee, Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Donte Moncrief and Jordan Mathews. They’ve all earned it. But Watkins at his best laps this field of potent contenders for the crown of top receiver in college football. (I purposely left one receiver off this list, because I’ll be writing about him another week.)

Watkins has done the best job of these players at integrating his physical, conceptual, and technical skill sets at the position at this stage of his career. And as polished as he is, there is room for him to get better. If Watkins were a creation of real-life Dr. Frankenstein, the mad scientist would have spliced the genetic material of Percy Harvin’s rugged, explosive athleticism and Brandon Lloyd’s route savvy and mind-bending body control without the migraines or mood swings.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

On Scouting Wide Receivers

0 Comments read 2011 NFL Draft, 2012 NFL Draft, 2013 NFL Draft, 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
If you're trying to find the next Dez Bryant, then data has a vital place but if you take the approach that tries to reverse engineer a process that is unintentionally based on the idea that all productive receivers are like Dez Bryant, it's misguided. Photo by A.J. Guel.
If you’re trying to find the next Dez Bryant, then data has a vital place but if you take the approach that tries to reverse engineer a process that is unintentionally based on the idea that all productive receivers are like Dez Bryant, it’s misguided. Photo by A.J. Guel.

I believe analytics have value, but the grading of wide receivers based heavily on speed, vertical skill, and production is an ambitious, but misguided idea. Further the application is the torturing of data to fit it into a preconceived idea and making it sound objective and scientific due to the use of quantitative data.  Unless the data is getting into some Nate Silver-like probability analysis, analytics is going to arrive at conclusions that are safe based on the past, but lack game-changing predictive value.

Some of my colleagues and friends at Football Outsiders, Pro Football Focus, and RotoViz will disagree.  And many of you will too, because you’ve bought the idea that what’s being studied is objective and scientific. There is often an air of certainty and black-and-white finality to the communication of this “quantitative” information that readers find more palatable than if “qualitative” information is delivered with the same tone. Numbers make people sound more powerful and intellectual even if the quality of the information isn’t well designed.

I can tell you that I write because I put words together in a pattern that you can read. It doesn’t mean that I’m writing well. The NFL has bought into analytics for reasons that are both sound and naive. Analytics should only get better over time and I believe in its future. I just don’t buy into it lock, stock, and barrel.  I think in this area of study with wide receivers, analytics needs to raise its standard and find another way.

The NFL will realize this about some methods of analytics sooner than later. Many teams are seeking a magic pill without fully understanding the manufacturing process that goes into it. Since they have been able to get this information for a modest fee and oftentimes at no charge in the early days (and we’re just emerging from the earliest of days in the era of analytics)  because these individuals and companies found the payment of notoriety an acceptable alternative to money.

It only makes sense that “quants” figured they could make the money off readers later if they couldn’t earn it from teams now. This dynamic is also changing, but it’s worth understanding the nature behind their relationship with the league. Fortunately for both parties, they will continue to work together and only deliver better products on and off the field.

I’m trying to do the same from a different vantage point. The more I watch wide receivers, the less I care about 40 times, vertical results, or broad jumps. Once a player meets the acceptable baselines for physical skills, the rest is about hands, technique, understanding defenses, consistency, and the capacity to improve.

I liked Kenbrell Thompkins, Marlon Brown, Austin Collie, (retired) Steve Smith, several other receivers lacking the headlining “analytical” formulas that use a variety of physical measurements and production to find “viable” prospects. What these players share is some evidence of “craft”. They weren’t perfect technicians at the college level or early in their NFL careers, but you could see evidence of a meticulous attention to detail that continued to get better.

This video does an excellent job of explaining why speed is the most overrated part of a wide receiver’s game. Speed should be seen as the icing and not the cake. Technique is the cake. It’s a great instructional guide on route releases and breaks, how they differ on the NFL level. Check it out. I continue to on a regular basis.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ZLjgZc0sYIc]

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Flashes: WR Allen Hurns, Miami

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
Receptions verus contact heighten my attention to a player's potential. Photo of Victor Cruz by Kat Vitulano
Receptions verus contact heighten my attention to a player’s potential. Photo of Victor Cruz by Kat Vitulano

Long-time college and NFL coach Dave Wannestedt told an ESPN crew that he awarded Dion Lewis a full ride to Pitt after watching just one play of the Browns running back’s high school tape. Sounds foolish, but I won’t lie: There are some plays impressive enough that you realize you’ve seen much of what you need to see. These are rare moments and other than Adrian Peterson, I can’t remember the last time I experienced that feeling about a player after witnessing one play.

While no magic pill, there is a type of play for wide receivers that is guaranteed to heighten my interest in a player. I call it the Money Catch. Give me a receiver who can make these consistently and I’m less concerned about his height, weight, 40-time, bench press, or stats. A receiver who demonstrates this skill may not become an NFL starter, but there are few quality NFL starters who lack this ability.

University of Miami wide receiver Allen Hurns flashes this skill. The 6’3″, 195-pound prospect also provides a good illustration of a technique flaw I’ve heard many pro receivers discuss: Leaving one’s feet to catch a target that doesn’t require it. I still have more to watch of Hurns’ game, but here are three clear examples of good technique and a habit that needs curbing.

Money Catch

[youtube=http://youtu.be/JT5gkKPpWiw]

This is a 3rd-and-16 pass from a 1×2 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun set from a 3-3-5 look. Quarterback Stephen Morris’ makes a fine throw for Hurns to have an opportunity to make the reception. Still, it’s the wide receiver on this pitch and catch who does the dirty work. Hurns finds the opening in the zone under one safety and inside another on this post route after getting an inside release on the corner in shallow zone.

One of the tougher aspects of a catch with impending contact is when a player gets “ping-ponged” or hit in succession in different directions so one hit ricochets him into another from the opposite direction. Hurns does a fine job of protecting the football on this target.

If I were to nitpick, the hand position to catch the football could be a little better. Ideal hand position would be for Hurns’ index fingers angled upward but point towards each other rather than at 12 o’clock. The hands should look a spider web. This technique reduces the likelihood of the ball sliding through the fingers.

Overall, a strong play.

Leaving Feet – Part I

[youtube=http://youtu.be/yjAR_4CS_6Y]

This target is a 3rd-and-7 pass for a 10-yard gain from the UM 31 with 2:38 in the half. Hurns is the single receiver from a 11 personnel, 1×2 shotgun set. He is lined outside the numbers in the right flat with two safeties split towards the hashes.

The CB on Hurns is playing seven yards off and bails early, leaving a cushion for Hurns to break his route at the first down marker. He makes the catch with his hands, but if you look closely, just as his hands make contact with the ball he leaves his feet. He’s already trying to get into position to run.

The idea is a good one, but this is where the habit of leaping to catch a ball when not required can create a lapse of concentration. Hurns fails to secure the ball with the initial touch and fights the ball into his body during his turn. While not conclusive, I believe his adjustment disorients him just enough that he takes the wrong path down field towards three defenders rather than running up the sideline.

I like that Hurns gains three yards after the catch and bounces off contact with a good finish, but if he catches the ball with his feet on the ground, turns and takes an outside path towards the cornerback in a one-on-one situation, I think he gains a lot more than three yards.

Leaving Feet – Part II

[youtube=http://youtu.be/3-lAJwFkXSQ]

This is a 2nd and goal from the six with 6:11 in the third quarter from another three-receiver, 11 personnel shotgun. Hurns runs the slant and drops the ball after an initial juggle of the target. Watch the two replays after the first airing and you’ll see where Hurns takes a long step to gather his body for a jump. Because the pass is a little late and to the back shoulder, Hurns cannot make a strong adjustment to the ball after this elongated step forces him to leave his feet.

The throw could have been better, but Hurns’ habit of going airborne – even if it’s not a jump with any height – not only diminishes Hurns’ ability to focus on looking the ball into his hands, but also creates situations where he commits to a direction before the target arrives.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Flashes: QB Chase Rettig, Boston College

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback
Chase Rettig isn't Kurt Warner, but was Kurt Warner, "Kurt Warner" as a first-year starter as a senior at Northern Iowa. Photo by Photogeek21
Chase Rettig isn’t Kurt Warner, but was Kurt Warner, “Kurt Warner” as a first-year starter as a senior at Northern Iowa? Photo by Photogeek21

Playing quarterback at a high level requires a pairing of skill sets that at times seem paradoxical. Intense preparation and freewheeling improvisational skill. Finesse and grit. Control and abandon. An elephantine memory and selective amnesia.

It’s why it’s the toughest position to evaluate. Kurt Warner sat on the bench at Northern Iowa for three years. The fourth year, he was the Gateway Conference’s Offensive Player of the Year.  We know the rest of the story. Johnny Unitas was cut by the Pittsburgh Steelers. Brett Favre might have drunk himself into a stupor if he stayed in Atlanta where then-Falcons’ head coach Jerry Glanville promised the only way Favre would get onto the field was a “plane crash“.

I wouldn’t bet my pocket change that Boston College senior Chase Rettig becomes a quality starter in the NFL. There are way too many factors to consider to draw a conclusion at this point. Yet there are qualities to his game that I like a lot that give him potential as a pocket passer. And yes, there are still pocket passers thriving in the NFL.

Rettig has played since his freshman year at Boston College and has the dubious distinction of working with five offensive coordinators in three years. Browns journeyman backup Jason Campbell can relate – and not just from his days with the Redskins. He had multiple offensive systems during his Auburn career.

Most don’t project Chase Rettig as a draft-worthy quarterback heading into the 2013 college season. However, Rettig plays well enough to earn consideration in early May even if his team continues its underwhelming play.

Arm Strength

[youtube=http://youtu.be/iPECd046PSU]

This is a 3rd-and-10 pass to his receiver, Alex Amidon on a deep out. Rettig faces Miami’s defense of freshmen and sophomores at the BC 32 versus a defense with two safeties high. This appears to be a Cover 2 look, especially as we see the pass arrive between two defenders. Rettig begins the play with a three-step drop, takes a hitch step to buy time, and then climbs the pocket away from the pressure coming from the edges.

The movement  has precision and Rettig maintains enough balance and position to deliver this deep out from the BC 25 to Amidon at the UM 47 just outside the numbers of the right flat and between the safety and linebacker. The fact he has to climb the pocket and still hits the receiver on time with good placement at helmet level is another indication that Rettig has fundamentally sound technique and a strong enough arm for NFL teams to work with.

Precision and Finesse

[youtube=http://youtu.be/jdbobFeTsNs]

Rettig’s execution on this 1st-and-10 pass with 4:30 in the half at the UM 23 from a 1×2 receiver, 11 personnel set is a fine demonstration of precision on a few levels. He faces two safeties deep and a 4-3 front with man coverage on the outside. Rettig extends his arm on the play fake to the RB before finishing a five step drop and this forces the Miami linebackers to attend to the prospect of the run. Rettig finishes his drop and delivers a nice seam route behind the linebacker and safety after his back foot hits the ground.

Although the ball goes through the tight end’s arms, I thought it was a good display of touch and placement. The tight end was late to get his hands up and the receiver wasn’t precise with his hand placement. Target a starting tight end – or several backups – in the NFL and this is a touchdown.

Eye Discipline and Footwork

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Ou2u_5JIomw]

This six-yard completion with 12:42 in the third quarter doesn’t seem like much of a play, but there are some nice things happening here. Rettig’s receiver Amidon is the outside twin receiver outside the numbers. Rettig executes a play-action fake to the running back, hitches twice, and finds his receiver breaking back to the passer on the hook.

Going a little deeper, this throw is placed in a tight zone in a window optimal for the receiver. Rettig once again displays nice footwork to climb the pocket away from outside pressure and keep his eyes down field. Moreover, Rettig sets this up by beginning his drop with a long enough look to the middle of the field, which holds the linebackers in place and opens this zone for Amidon to work underneath.

Under Pressure

[youtube=http://youtu.be/5-uMbIslftA]

Here’s another small gain, but a nice play on a 3rd-and-four. Rettig’s target is Amidon, the receiver at the top of the screen. UM plays two safeties deep and rushes four. As you can see thus far, when Rettig has time to get that back foot into the ground he flashes arm strength and sometimes hyper-accuracy.

On this play, Rettig doesn’t get that time. Miami earns inside penetration off each tackle. Rettig looks to the middle, slides to the left, and makes a nice throw off his back foot with enough velocity to hit the receiver crossing from outside-inside into decent coverage. The receiver gets the first down and Rettig takes a hit after making the throw.

While the true test of a passer with physical gifts is to deliver a ball on-target and off-balance in the middle zone, this short-zone throw is still notable.

Awareness and Feel

[youtube=http://youtu.be/v8DXxz8q0nY]

Although this play doesn’t end well for the Eagles, Rettig placed the team in great position for a big-play on this 1st-and-10 with 12:32 in the game. Miami plays a single-high safety and decides to begin sending more than four men into the pocket. This is the first of several five-man pressure packages that come in the fourth quarter and they fail to sack Rettig once.

The play was designed for Rettig to find one of three receivers flooding the various zones on the left side of the field after a play-action boot in that direction. However, the safety forces the action early with his blitz. Rettig has a good feel for the location of his running back working the right flat on a bullet route as the backside receiver and is agile enough to pivot right and make an accurate throw with the defender in his face for a big gain that ends with a turnover.

While there’s nothing but good shown here, there are some things to note by nature of their absence.  Rettig never threw the ball away in this game and considering he is known for holding onto the ball too long and taking sacks, there was nothing in this game to dispel this behavior. Rettig also has a high touchdown-to-interception total. The BC quarterback tossed an interception in this game where he didn’t read the underneath coverage on a slant and he attempted a number of tight-window throws.

I’m more concerned about the mix of aggression and discipline with interceptions than holding onto the ball too long. If Rettig can actually play in the same offensive system for a few years, this tendency could diminish over time. However, high interceptions rates also a result of a team playing from behind and forcing a quarterback to take risks. I saw several of these attempts at the end of this game where the quarterback might have had smarter choices, but not the time left in the contest to act with care.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures at Football Outsiders: Venric Mark, Offensive Weapon?

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back, Wide Receiver
Is this the year McCluster gets a shot to maximize his skill set? Photo by Tennessee Journalist Wade Rackley.
Is this the year McCluster gets a shot to maximize his skill set? If so, it might help Northwestern runner-receiver-return specialist Venric Mark’s draft stock . Photo by Tennessee Journalist Wade Rackley.

Venric Mark: Offensive Weapon?

by Matt Waldman

A couple of months ago, an employee from an NFL player-personnel department asked for preliminary input on a project he’s undertaking. He asked me to relay things I watch when I study offensive skill players that he could quantify. One of the things I shared pertains to running backs.

What many quality pros at the position have in common is how they handle backfield penetration. Every runner looks effective when he can generate momentum towards an open crease, however it requires a strong integration of multiple skill sets to foil early defensive penetration.

These skills include anticipating the penetration during the exchange with the quarterback, avoiding the defense after the exchange, and the runner redirecting his path to minimize a potential loss after the defense disrupts the intent of the offensive play. I see this happen most when a defense is dominating an offensive line and limiting the runner’s box score production.

Some the most memorable evaluations I have performed on prospects have been runners during games where their teams were overmatched:

  • Marshall’s Ahmad Bradshaw versus a Top-10 worthy Tennessee defense.
  • Tulane’s Matt Forte against LSU’s top-ranked defense.
  • LSU’s Joseph Addai facing a top-ranked Auburn defense.

All three players performed poorly according to the box score data in these games, but what I saw them do on the field was impressive. Season-long production may demonstrate that the player is contributing to the team, but it’s one of the most overrated aspects of evaluating a prospect.

I find it more important to examine player performance independent from the quality of his production. I prefer to judge his skill on a series of behaviors and processes within the physical and conceptual scope of his position and his role in the game. This is more illuminating of a player’s potential than a box score.

However, there is an added layer of complexity that comes into play when a prospect has the talent to produce in the NFL, but he plays a position in college football where his physical dimensions don’t match the NFL’s traditional prototype.

Underscoring this challenge is the NFL embracing the latest offensive concepts that are successful in the college game. The more a team spreads the field, opts for read-option plays, and uses a multiple scheme, the more likely the team will be scouting players who were successful in these schemes. The problem is that, by traditional NFL standards, those players aren’t big enough to ride the pro rollercoaster.

When this happens, we often see these players earn vague position titles from coaches like utility back or offensive weapon. There are exceptions, but the vaguer the position title, the less likely the player will have a defined role and impact in the offense. It’s why this integration of skills to anticipate-avoid-redirect may not be as enlightening to scouts when they watch a smaller runner back.

These players are also a test of an organization’s overall vision. A personnel department can scout a player and determine he’s a worthwhile prospect, but if the organization isn’t aligned in its thinking, the coaching staff can miscast its young talent into an offensive design that doesn’t suit his skills.

Nothing like shopping for groceries to provide the chef all the ingredients for a fantastic Italian meal only to see him use these goods for a Mexican dinner.

Darren Sproles, Dexter McCluster, and Tavon Austin all fit that player type. McCluster was more Sproles-like in style when he joined the Chiefs, but the team had its share of running back talent. They converted the Ole Miss star into a full-time wide receiver and he has yet to make a real impact. Place McCluster in a system similar to the Saints and I think he’d be a standout.

Even as new schemes create a need for players without a positional prototype, “offensive weapons” without a traditional position have been around for decades. Two players that come to mind –- and there are several before them -– are Warrick Dunn and Eric Metcalf.

Dunn’s physical dimensions are in the same range as the McCluster-Sproles-Austin trio, but he proved he could do the dirty work between the tackles as a true running back. In contrast, Metcalf was a bigger player than all four of these prospects, but Bill Belichick’s use of Metcalf at running back in Cleveland yielded mixed results. Some of this was due to an old-fashioned scheme; the rest was Metcalf’s style.

Metcalf’s production made him a mediocre running back in Cleveland, but he was a good receiver in the short zone of the field and a fine return specialist. When the Falcons acquired Metcalf, they converted him to a full-time receiver in a run-and-shoot offense. Metcalf had 104 catches, 1180 yards, and eight scores in his first season.

Scheme made all the difference. Pair Metcalf with Belichick in New England and I suspect the Patriots’ head coach would have used Metcalf more like Wes Welker or what I expect the team to do with a healthy Shane Vereen this year.

A college player who reminds me of Eric Metcalf is Venric Mark. The Northwestern running back has flashed a similar type of skill to anticipate-avoid-redirect when facing backfield penetration but at 5-foot-8 and somewhere between 175-185 pounds, scouts will wonder which positional template Mark fits into -– if he fits into one at all.

He’s a player whose draft stock will not just be determined by his skill and athleticism, but by the performance of players like McCluster and Austin. If both of these young NFL talents falter beyond their special teams prowess, Mark will have to demonstrate that he’s a Dunn-esque exception to the rule as a runner or display the receiving prowess in the intermediate zone to earn a definitive position title and role.

While Mark has a knack for minimizing losses, his display of this particular integrated skill set won’t likely hold the same value compared to the likes of Bradshaw, Forte, and Addai because of his current size. Depending on his physical growth, level of skill, and an NFL teams’ perception of his potential, Mark could either be viewed as a pure running back or labeled an “offensive weapon.”

Mark’s performance in last year’s opener at Syracuse provides a good showcase for his versatility, explosiveness, and vision — but it also raises more questions about his future than definitive answers.

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