Category Matt Waldman

The Gut Check No.292: A Trip to The Thrift Store

May 20, 2014 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Fantasy football in May is a month dominated by rookie coverage. It’s a good time to hit the thrift store and shop for values on a longer development curve.

Thrift stores are awesome. I arrived at this conclusion somewhat late in life. I held the assumption that the items in these stores were someone else’s rejects.

This is both true and false. The close might not have been wanted, but it had nothing to do with quality or even style. Your stubborn Uncle Jake only wears Wrangler jeans and refused to even try on the pair of Lucky’s that his sister in-law gave him for Christmas. Grandpa Kevin liked the Polo sweater, but it was three sizes too big and he didn’t want to make a fuss about it on his Birthday. Or, your Cousin Rick would have put that dress shirt you got at the men’s shop to good use if he hadn’t decided to cash in his chips as partner of an accounting firm and join the park service as a tour guide.

Fantasy football has a similar dynamic. Rookies are the rage from February through August. Everyone wants to find the first-year players who will have an immediate impact. But fantasy owners often forget about the young veterans who didn’t play well–or even play at all–as rookies. Some owners even write off these second, third, or fourth-year players developing on a slower learning curve or stuck behind a crowded depth chart.

This week, I’m checking in with these players. We can categorize them in four ways:

Emerging – Talents likely to contribute or start this year.
Progressing – Players who still appear on track to become starters or contributors within a year or two.
Covered – Personnel with talent, but stuck on crowded depth charts.
Crossroads – Prospects who might be in make or break seasons in the NFL.

Remember, you don’t always have to buy when you shop. Even if you don’t invest in any of these players, it’s a good idea to monitor their progress and research them during the spring and summer. The earlier become conversant with the potential of backups, the sooner you’ll be able to anticipate and react to changes on the fantasy landscape.

Say Drew Brees suffers a shoulder sprain in practice in mid-October. You could wait until Friday to read the first article sharing basics about Griffin that probably took longer for the writer to write than it would take for you to Google. By then, you might have lost a shot at Griffin in a league with a first come, first serve waiver wire.

Or you could have been aware of Griffin this summer, made it a point to watch him in the preseason, and knew right away to add the Saints’ backup so you could either use him or trade him. Fantasy football has a more level playing field thanks to our ever evolving technology. However, it still takes effort to read the right things and with enough advanced notice to plan ahead.

Reading about these young players provides a foundation of knowledge to build on when training camp and preseason games begin. As everyone else is still learning about the talent, whether its buying or selling them, you’re already making moves with the pieces to your advantage.

Read the rest at Footballguys.com

A Game of Inches: The Talent Gap By the Numbers

April 16, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Matt Waldman, RSP Publication

Based on these numbers, less than 1 percent of the seniors playing college football will ever earn a second contract in the NFL.

Greg Linton, an NFL agent, shared this on Twitter this morning. There’s another salient point embedded in this data that goes beyond the message of “get your education.” It’s how data displays the differences in execution. It is a great way to see the differences between “good” college football and “good” NFL football.

Only the top 6.5 percent of all high school players compete at the college level. It means they are in the 93.5 percentile of all high school players. Likewise, only the top 1.6 percent of all college players enter the NFL–the 98.4 percentile. And that second NFL contract–the seal of approval that you’re a good NFL player–is reserved for less than one percent of all college players; the 99.06 percentile.

Viewing the numbers in this fashion, it doesn’t look like a big difference between the 93.5 percentile, the 98.4 percentile, and the 99.06 percentile. You’d be mistaken.

This may be a stretch for some–and it certainly isn’t scientific–but for the sake of entertainment, let’s presume that these percentiles were a reflection of a player’s success rate executing plays on a per snap basis. I understand this is not exact, but I think there’s enough to this idea to suspend disbelief long enough to make an overall point that is worthwhile.

The table below shows the amount of errors–or bad plays–that a player would commit over the course of a million plays based these percentiles that represent their standing as a college (93.5 percentile), NFL prospect (98.4 percentile), or NFL vet earning a second contract (99.07 percentile).

Plays	Percentile	Good Plays	Errors/Bad
1,000,000	0.935	935,000	65,000
1,000,000	0.984	98,4000	16,000
1,000,000	0.9906	99,0600	9,400

The difference between 65,000 errors and 16,000 errors is massive and that’s just the gap between a college player and NFL prospect who might last three years in the league. The NFL vet who earns a second deal commits 42.3 percent fewer errors than the prospect ad 86.6 fewer errors than the college player. And I’m talking about the average player on a team, which includes the best and the worst players on each squad–forget about the stars!

Even these numbers are a little harder to grasp, because we’re looking at a million plays. We won’t see any player execute that many over the course of a career–as hard as Brett Favre, George Blanda and Bruce Matthews tried.

So let’s break it down to plays in a season. Let’s estimate a player sees 40 plays a game for 16 games. I know this isn’t completely accurate for the college game or certain players in the NFL. However, it’s a more understandable sample size of plays for a season that equates to 640 plays.

Now look at the differences in errors/bad plays–it’s a lot easier to grasp.

Player	Plays	Percentile	Good Plays	Errors
College	640	0.935	598.4	41.6
NFL Prospect	640	0.984	629.76	10.24
NFL Vet	640	0.9906	633.984	6.016

The difference between 10 and 6 egregious errors per season per player is staggering–and that’s the difference between a young NFL player and a veteran. Those 41.6 errors per season for the average college player just doesn’t cut it for the pro game. This chart hints at why NFL athleticism is a difference maker in the college game even if the NFL skill and understanding of football isn’t always present.

In contrast, the gap between a prospect and vet is much smaller from an athletic standpoint, but the differences in errors is still large based on knowledge of technique, strategy, and consistency of execution. Again, this is hypothesizing that we’re discussing the average player at each level.

Now think about the top four players on each team–Pro-Bowl caliber players–that’s 128 players in the NFL. These players are in the 99.88 percentile in all of football–high school, college, and NFL. Using a sample of 640 plays in a 16-game season they would commit .75 egregious errors.

This seems hard to believe. In fact, you can see where this theory begins to crack at the seams because even All-Pros make mistakes multiple times in a season. However, how many of them are solely their fault and not something that can be explained by the error of a teammate? Not as many as you might think.

I wouldn’t throw out this examination because the numbers aren’t exactly right. The point is still a good one: The gap in talent is about consistency of execution and it requires knowledge, skill, and focus as the gap in athleticism narrows.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Scouting QBs: Separating the Dark From the Dark

March 5, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Matt Waldman, Players, Quarterback

Being wrong about Gabbert far hurts the ego, but helps my process. Photo by PDA.Photo.

After spending an insane amount of time during the last decade studying players, talking with scouts, and paying attention to history, I have learned three things about evaluating football talent:

Scouting and quarterbacking are about detail and nuance.
Experience matters, but not like you think.
Quarterback remains the untamed wilderness of football evaluation.

These are my personal lessons. No one shared these three points as teachable nuggets from the book of scouting. The last two insights are unintended consequences of professionals making opposite statements.

After 10 years of studying football games, I have gained enough experience to see that I’m not an expert. As the great poet Philip Levine wrote, I’ve “begun to separate the dark from the dark.”

Today, I’m sharing these degrees of darkness about scouting quarterbacks. The hope is that separating the dark from the dark may one day provide a process that is a more reliable way to find the light.

Detail and Nuance

During one of our frequent phone conversations, Footballguys.com co-owner Sigmund Bloom and I concluded that the simplest way to describe good quarterbacking is to compare it to another job. Cooks and musicians offer good parallels, but the best is that of a skilled craftsman.

I used to build sets at a theater. I learned how to use a wide variety of tools. I even gained some welding experience.

Give me directions and materials and a garage full of tools and I can assemble something bought at a store after I’ve taken it apart at least once. But I’m not the guy you want to help you with a home improvement project or a repair. Unless it’s the simplest of tasks, I’d be pulled from the job within an hour.

On the other hand, give my wife Alicia a small toolbox with half the tools and she’ll not only have the job completed with time to spare, she’ll also have spotted and addressed two other problems around your house that you didn’t know about. She didn’t start working on houses until her early 30s, but within three years she owned her own remodeling company and did everything but electric and plumbing.

You need tools to do a job, but nuance to do the job well. I had all the tools, but none of the nuance. Alicia had half the tools and a ton of nuance.

Good quarterbacking is craftsmanship. There are a basic minimum of tools (details) to complete the job: height, weight, speed, arm strength, accuracy, etc. However the craftsman integrates the tools, his knowledge, and his experience to execute at the highest level of performance.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

RSP Rorschach No.3: Cornell QB Jeff Mathews

February 11, 2014 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Thrown too early or thrown too late? See below.

Some plays are like Rorschach inkblots because there’s no definitive answer to why they unfold the way they do. This new series examines plays that have more than one viable explanation and may be too difficult to draw a single conclusion. The fun part is that you have a voice in it.

RSP Rorschach No.3: Cornell QB Jeff Mathews

This is 3rd-and-14 pass with 6:25 in the first quarter. The Cornell offense is in a 10 personnel shotgun set at the 24 with the ball at the right hash versus a 3-3-5 defensive look from Princeton. The offense faces a five-man blitz – three defenders coming from the left and two up the middle. The defensive end over right tackle is dropping to the right flat.

Princeton plays an aggressive defense that varies looks (nickel, 3-3-5, 2-4-6, and 3-4 looks) and blitz types all day. There is lots of A-gap pressure, layered blitzes to the same gap with two defenders coming in waves, and lineman dropping into coverage as slot defenders fire off the edge.

It’s the kind of pressure that forces a quarterback to play decisive football, which leads to the question about this pass attempt. Mathews drops from the shotgun looking to the middle, sets his feet, and throws the ball up the seam from the 29 to the slot-right receiver up the seam tot he end zone.

The quarterback over throws the receiver by four yards. The commentator tells the audience during the replay that Mathews was too early with his throw because of the pressure forcing the quarterback to rush the throw.

But is the commentator correct? Could Mathews have waited too long and been forced to lob the ball into a spot that could have been avoided with an earlier release?

See below.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnpFHmHy66I&start=106&w=560&h=315]

There’s no doubt that Mathews throws the ball with air under it but there’s no real arc. It looks more like the trajectory of a fade route where the quarterback expects the receiver to high-point the ball.

It’s good touch for a fade but that is not what this play calls for. While the throw being “long” is often an indication that the throw was too early, this is an intermediate-range pass.

Look at Mathews’ drop and it appears that he waits a tick late before making the decision to throw the ball. If the throws the ball in rhythm, the quarterback would have released the ball earlier and thrown the ball on a line to the inside of the receiver.

Instead, the quarterback waits a tick and lofts the ball so it clears the safety, who otherwise might not have been in range if quarterback threw the ball the moment his back foot hit the ground at the conclusion of the drop. The question is which theory do you buy?

Throw the ball earlier and with velocity on a line drive trajectory and the pass threads the needle of the secondary inside the five and the receiver trots into the end zone? Or, as the commentator noted, the pass rush forced a rushed throw and it arrived too early?

[polldaddy poll=7792661]

As always, you may comment below if you have a different take.

Futures: Senior Bowl Preview

January 15, 2014 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Is UNC defensive end Quinton Coples the next Jason Pierre-Paul? Jene Bramel says the potential is there but like everything earned in life, he has to put in the work to hone his gifts. — The Senior Bowl practices begin next week on the Martin Luther King holiday. Photo by Jene Bramel.

Another year, another Senior Bowl. What I am looking for, and what does the format of the Senior Bowl help me see?

Futures: Senior Bowl Preview

by Matt Waldman

There will be hundreds of Senior Bowl Previews available within the next seven days. Most of them will explain why the game is important to the NFL and the participating player. Only a few writers won’t provide 3-4 sentence summaries of the prospects.

I have provided this type of preview in one form or another since I began attending five years ago. I’m doing some of that once again this year, but I’m also sharing a more personal preview of the event. In addition to disclosing what I want to see from dozens of players, this preview will cover what else all-star games offer me as an evaluator of talent with my own publication devoted to offensive skill prospects.

Continual Football Education

At its core, studying tape is a solitary pursuit focused on the end product. Attending all-star game practices provides a glimpse into another dimension of the game, its coaches, and its players behind the scenes.

The opportunity to watch two NFL coaching staffs conduct a practice for a week provides insight into not only what’s important to them, but also what I can reasonably expect a player to reveal about his game during these sessions.

There are prospects that arrive in Mobile with a reputation for a certain skill set based on their junior and senior film, but the practices reveal something important about their game that the past two years of tape doesn’t show. I was fortunate enough to see Bengals receiver Marvin Jones showcase his skills as vertical threat during his sophomore year, but because his role at Cal changed after his sophomore year, many observers had their eyes opened for the first time when they witnessed Jones’ big-play ability at the Senior Bowl.

Practices vary in tone, tempo, and detail and it means the type of information one can gain varies from year to year. While I’ve expressed my utopian ideal for the Senior Bowl in the past, the practical approach is to be prepared to take what you can get.

When Buffalo’s staff ran a week of practice a few years ago, special teams had heightened priority and the teaching moments from individual drills were less frequent. There’s still a lot to see, but practices don’t serve as an informal technique clinic, which Bengals and Lions practices often were.

Former Detroit offensive coordinator Scott Linehan’s practice sessions for the offense at the Senior Bowl were especially good. He had an up-tempo style and packed the mornings with a variety of drills that tested and taught details that prospects needed to develop into more complete players.

Learning What’s Valuable (And What’s Not) From Practices

Everyone gets something different from watching practice. My book focuses on skill prospects, so I don’t spend much time . . . (read the rest at Football Outsiders)

RSP Rorschach No.2: WR Davante Adams

January 6, 2014 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

This installment of RSP Rorschach features a beautiful, but failed adjustment on a deep post by Davante Adams.

RSP Rorschach No.2: Davante Adams

The play below is an incomplete pass on 3rd and 5 with 0:49 in the first quarter from the Fresno State-Boise State rivalry. This is a deep post that Adams runs from the left flat. Fresno State quarterback David Carr delivers a play fake, rolls left, turns down field, and hitches twice before delivering the ball from the Fresno 34 to the Boise State 4.

The part of the play that may have multiple explanations is where Adams comes into the play.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUD7A7YXX0s&start=172&w=420&h=315]

Despite not making the grab, Adams makes an impressive adjustment to leap at the seven, turn his body towards the sideline and cut off the safety’s angle on the ball with the hope of snaring the ball over his outside shoulder.

When I first watched his play, I wondered if Adams made these adjustment because Carr’s throw was to the wrong shoulder and didn’t lead the receiver far enough inside. Yet after another viewing, there’s a real possibility that the throw was accurate based on the landing spot of the football. If that’s the case, did Adams over to the position of the safety and try to attack the ball before the safety had a chance only to make the target more difficult?

Or, was the throw accurate and the safety’s position was good enough that Adams had to adjust his play on the ball to prevent the defender from cutting off the target?

What do you think?

[polldaddy poll=7695664]

Got another take? Comment below.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

RSO Writer’s League Update: Playoffs

December 17, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Danny Kelly has always been a Jamal Charles fan (who hasn't? Raiders fans, I imagine). Photo by Phillip Macgruder. — Bob Harris and Jamaal Charles? A winning combination. See below. Photo by Phillip Macgruder.

Congratulations to Bob Harris and Mike Clay, who will be playing in the championship game of the Reality Sports Online Writer’s League. Harris’ team, the fourth seed, was hot in the playoffs, averaging 150 points the past two weeks to defeat Jeff Tefertiller’s fifth seed team and then upset the top seeded squad of Jim Day with a 155-120 victory. Harris received 61 points from Jamaal Charles and received additional help from Danny Amendola’s a 25-point afternoon to out-point Day’s squad that didn’t get its typical advantage from Peyton Manning and Jimmy Graham.

Mike Clay, the No.2 seed, defeated Sigmund Bloom in the semifinals 135-100, thanks to a combined 57 points from Nick Foles and Indianapolis’ team defense. Bloom, who earned a combined 74 points from Shane Vereen and LeSean McCoy in Week 14 to defeat season points leader Matt Waldman in the quarterfinals, only saw this running back duo generate 18 points in the semis.

The tale of the tape for Clay and Harris’ teams is fascinating. Clay has tremendous depth at quarterback with Foles and Drew Brees while Harris is getting by with Matt Ryan and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Matt Forte and Danny Woodhead power Clay’s team at RB and Harris sports Charles and Knowshon Moreno. Clay has the advantage with receiver depth, but Harris’ team is capable of huge individual performances.

Good luck to Bob and Mike who will be competing for a $1000 purse that will be donated to the charity of their choice.

To learn more about the league and Reality Sports Online’s excellent concept, check out this page. In case you haven’t thought about it, I am getting paid to give them my endorsement. However, I don’t do this often – and I am contacted monthly with some kind of offer. RSO is something I truly value and I agreed to start a league and keep a monthly diary because I would have paid to start a league with this format if I knew about it before they reached out to me.

I’ll be keeping this monthly diary next year as well, because I believe in the concept. Stay tuned for opportunities to earn a discount for starting a league next year. In fact, to risk doing the wrong thing – Start your own league and get a discount when you use this coupon code: RSP20%OFF.

RSP Rorschach No.1: Fitzgerald Toussaint

December 12, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Fitzgerald Toussaint and the Michigan Wolverines offense gets to be part of the first RSP Rorschach Series. Photo by Adam Glanzman.

RSP Rorschach No.1: Fitzgerald Toussaint

[youtube=http://youtu.be/hpdg_kz9RGA]

This is a two-yard gain on 1st and 10 with 2:01 in the first quarter from a 21 personnel set. It’s an offset I-formation with the fullback to the strong side and one receiver split to the weak side. Notre Dame is in a 4-3. Before the snap, the safety at the left hash creeps to linebacker depth over the receiver. Also note that the outside linebacker in the left flat takes a couple of steps towards the line of scrimmage as his safety reaches this depth.

At the snap, the line slants right and the fullback works across the formation to the left edge of the line. The outside linebacker executes a run blitz and the fullback is confronted with two choices: block the outside linebacker or attack the middle linebacker. The fullback chooses the middle linebacker, allows the outside linebacker to continue his blitz unimpeded, and Toussaint takes a path directly into the middle linebacker and falls forward for two yards.

Why did this play unfold as it did? Here are some of my thoughts. While I have my opinion that I like the most, I’m not sharing it. I want to hear what you think is the most viable of these theories. Have your own that’s not listed? Post it in the comments.

Theory 1: The Fullback Makes A Bad Choice

The fullback’s original assignment is the middle linebacker. If the outside linebacker doesn’t blitz, the fullback seals the middle linebacker inside and Toussaint bounces the play to the outside shoulder of the fullback. But with the outside linebacker’s run blitz, there’s no outside line unless the fullback changes his plan and attacks this run blitz. In theory, this change would have given Toussaint a chance to bounce the play outside to the left flat where there’s a ton of room, a block by his wide receiver on the cornerback, and only a middle linebacker chasing Toussaint from behind.

Theory 2: The Left Guard Fails To Identify the Appropriate Linebacker Assignment

Watch the play unfold and the left guard works through the line of scrimmage and attacks the linebacker inside the right hash, allowing the linebacker in the middle to run free and occupy the lane this play is designed for Toussaint to attack. Was the linebacker inside the hash the “Mike” or was it the linebacker that makes the tackle? Did the guard attack the wrong defender? If he took on the linebacker just left of the hash, the fullback takes on the blitz from the outside linebacker, and the Toussaint has a lane inside for a bigger gain.

Theory 3: The Quarterback Fails To Identify The OLB Blitz

When the safety creeps to linebacker depth, this should be a pre snap indication that there’s a potential blitz from that side. Considering the alignment of the outside linebacker and the depth of the safety, it’s conceivable that the quarterback should have read the blitz and made one of any number of changes:

Shift the tight end to the opposite tackle and run the play so the tight end and fullback can account for the two linebackers.
Change the direction of the direction of the run to the strong side away from the blitz.
Change the play to a pass.

In theory, all three of these options have a better outcome than what actually happens.

So what do you think?

[polldaddy poll=7639925]

Reality Sports Online Writers’ League Update

November 22, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

There are a fair share of Jimmy Graham-sized When Jimmy Graham and Peyton Manning are in your lineup, you don't need much more - ask Jim Day. Photo by Football Schedule. — When Jimmy Graham and Peyton Manning are in your lineup, you don’t need much more – ask Jim Day. Photo by Football Schedule.

Reality Sports Online Writers’ League Update:

November is almost over and it’s time to provide an RSO update on the 14-team league I started with some of the best fantasy writers I know and enjoy competing against. With the playoffs three weeks away, all but one team is still technically alive. Here’s a quick rundown of the state of the league:

Playoff Bound (For Now)

Jim Day is atop the Grinders Division with an 8-3 record and the third in total points scored. Peyton Manning and Jimmy Graham have carried his offense with workmanlike help from Frank Gore and a mid-season boost from Zac Stacy. With the likes of Darren Sproles, Joique Bell, and Mike James on his bench, Day has one of the deepest core of backs in the league. His wide receivers aren’t bad – Eric Decker, Kendall Wright, and Marques Colston, but you’d have to think he’d be trying to deal one of his runners for a wideout – especially when Russell Wilson and E.J. Manuel comprise his QB depth chart. I guess if it ain’t broke, he’s not gonna fix it. Although he could miss the playoffs if he loses two in a row, it’s far more likely he’ll be one of the top three seeds.

Mike Clay and Sigmund Bloom are the Bangers Division co-leaders at 7-5 with Clay currently 12 points ahead of Bloom on the total points tiebreaker (4th and 5th in points scored overall). Clay has Drew Brees leading his starting lineup with Matt Forte, Danny Woodhead, and Andre Ellington (who he has been trying to sell for weeks) as the rotation of three prominent backs in a league that only starts 2 RBs. If Roddy White could return to form for Clay to pair with Victor Cruz, Clay could be even tougher to beat. Bloom’s team has been hot in recent weeks thanks to the return of Rob Gronkowski, Shane Vereen, and Jonathan Stewart. Garrett Graham getting love from Case Keenum hasn’t hurt, either. With LeSean McCoy, Jordy Nelson, and Alshon Jeffery as other strong core players, Bloom will be a difficult team to face in the playoffs as long as he wins out.

If Bob Harris was in the Bangers Division, he’d be tied for first, but he’s a game back of Jim Day with a 7-4 record. The fact that he’s doing it with Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Ryan Fitzpatrick tells you that there’s more ways to win then a stud quarterback. Jamaal Charles, Deangelo Williams, and Andre Brown are helping and Mark Ingram might provide him a boost next season. But I have to say that Harris’ team is a lineup challenge every week with the likes of Steve Smith, Eddie Royal, Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, and Stevie Johnson as his top receivers. It goes to show that Harris, who is 8th in points scored, is doing a nice job getting the most of his start/sit decisions.

Jeff Tefertiller is 6-4-1 thanks to no decimal scoring in this league. Despite great overall experience with the site and league type, this is one thing I would recommend RSO to change (or to show me where I turned off this option) with its leagues. Tefertiller is seventh in points scored and doing it with good lineup decisions and strength at receiver (Brandon Marshall, Pierre Garcon, James Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Terrance Williams, and Jarrett Boykin) while he’s hoping Ray Rice can get on track down the stretch. Robert Griffin is still giving him quality points, but not like he’s hoped. Jeff is one of several teams who could move further up the playoff seeding or be bounced out in just two weeks time.

Jackson, let's hope you're seriously back to "Action" down the stretch. Photo by Karen Blaha. — Jackson, let’s hope you’re seriously back to “Action” down the stretch. Photo by Karen Blaha.

Yours truly is 6-5, but because I’m the top point scorer overall I hold the tiebreaker over Bryan Fontaine for the final playoff spot heading into the weekend. Jay Cutler’s injury hurt, so did Terrelle Pryor’s. However, I still have Carson Palmer and picked up Josh McCown weeks ago as a hedge. Both quarterbacks have served me well, especially Palmer’s 400-yard game last week with Indianpolis ahead. My true strength is wide receiver – Calvin Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Keenan Allen, and Cecil Shorts are usually my starting four. Vernon Davis has been holding it down at tight end and Seattle’s defense has been providing me more points per game than my running backs combined. Speaking of RBs, Ben Tate and Steven Jackson are getting healthier at the right time. If my team continues to score at the same pace, I should be one of the more dangerous lower seed match-ups in the playoffs.

On the Bubble

Riley Cooper is one of many players who make Jason Wood's team a dangerous squad if he gets over the bubble. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller. — Riley Cooper is one of many players who make Jason Wood’s team a dangerous squad if he gets over the bubble. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.

Fontaine (5-6) is sixth in points scored and has one of the more solid lineups around with a lot of players capable of big weeks: Matt Stafford, DeMarco Murray, Larry Fitzgerald, Dez Bryant, Antonio Gates, and Jordan Cameron. The emergence of Chris Ivory hurt Fontaine mid-season (he has Bilal Powell), but Pierre Thomas is fine depth. Tied with me record-wise in the Grinders Division I wouldn’t be surprised if Fontaine overtakes a couple of teams that are currently projected “in” – I hope mine isn’t one of them.

Rivers McCown is 5-6 in the Bangers division and 13th in points scored. Cam Newton, Adnre Johnson, and Rueben Randle are the corps players on his squad and the rest is a start-sit challenged: Daniel Thomas, Willis McGahee, Lance Moore, Tyler Eifert, Sean McGrath, and Jarius Wright. Without a strong starter at RB and Jermichael Finley, McCown has had tough luck down the stretch.

Jason Wood (5-6) has a dangerous team. Despite his record, he’s second overall in total points and has the likes of Philip Rivers, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, Demaryius Thomas, Eddie Lacy, Riley Cooper, and the Chiefs defense earning big totals for him. The problem for Wood has been up and down weeks against some of the more consistent teams at the wrong times. With the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Rashad Jennings on his bench, Wood has the firepower and depth to be a playoff Cinderella, but getting there is the first priority.

Tim Stafford (4-6-1) has Marshawn Lynch, Wes Welker, and Tony Romo as his solid starters and the rest is a M*A*S*H unit: Randall Cobb, Santonio Holmes, C.J. Spiller, Mike Goodson, Owen Daniels, and Leonard Hankerson to name a few. He still has a shot, but he’ll need huge weeks from his core trio and Spiller and Holmes to get healthy to make some true noise.

I’ll be keeping this monthly diary next year as well, because I still really believe in the concept – so stay tuned for opportunities to earn a discount for starting a league next year. In fact, to risk doing the wrong thing – Start your own league and get a discount when you use this coupon code: RSP20%OFF.

NFL Closeup: Safety Tyrann Mathieu And Economy of Motion

November 12, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Mathieu has a chance to be one of the impact performers as a safety/corner hybrid. Photo by wxcasterphx. — Mathieu has become an impact performer as a safety/corner hybrid. Photo by wxcasterphx.

Cardinals safety Tyrann Mathieu is playing his tail off and the biggest reason this rookie has made the jump from LSU to the NFL with a year away from football in between is his mental command of the game. Mathieu is an incisive player and it’s easy to see this quality on the field. Here are two plays against the Texans – notably Andre Johnson and Ben Tate – where Mathieu demonstrates multiple skills with no wasted motion.

in·ci·sive inˈsīsiv/ adjective 1. (of a person or mental process) intelligently analytical and clear-thinking.

A common characteristic that most good football players share is the economy of motion. Be it a streamline route with a sudden, sharp break; a hard plant and cut without a gather step; or a quick release of the football, efficient technique helps a player gain an edge over his opponent. This especially true for defensive players.

Mathieu’s read and react skills are on fine display as the slot defender paired with Andre Johnson as his obstacle to runner Ben Tate. Mathieu begins the play shading the receiver’s inside, but watch how this changes as the play develops.

When the Texans snap the ball and Case Keenum makes the exchange with Tate, Mathieu takes the outside. One reason is to anticipate any short, outside-breaking routes if this exchange is actually a play fake. Since Mathieu also has a shallower position as the slot man, his move outside also gives him a chance to funnel Johnson inside where there’s a greater chance for help to arrive if the receiver runs a vertical route and beats the rookie.

Assuming this is a running play, Mathieu’s initial work to the outside is to maintain gap responsibility at the edge so he can keep Tate away from the sideline and funnel the runner insider where there’s additional help. At this point, Mathieu is waiting for Tate to make a choice to run inside or outside the Texan’s right tackle.

When Tate chooses the inside path based on the direction of the right tackle’s block, Mathieu makes a swift turn inside and extends his arms towards Johnson. Although not as easy to see how fluid Mathieu is with still photographs, there’s value in seeing how the defensive back uses his arms to beat Johnson inside with swat of the receiver’s arms similar to a wide receiver beating the jam at the line of scrimmage.

As soon as Mathieu gets inside Johnson, he breaks down into a stance square to the ball carrier, which will enable the defensive back to explode through the ball carrier. Tate is a step beyond the line of scrimmage with enough help around him to earn at least 7-10 yards if he can avoid Mathieu. At this vantage point, Tate appears to have enough space to set up Mathieu. However, it Mathieu demonstrates that three yards of space isn’t enough.

Mathieu is patient enough to maintain his position as Tate takes another step. Mathieu’s angle forces Tate to consider a bounce outside and once a safety can get a big back working east west, it’s an advantage for the defense. When Mathieu shoots for Tate’s legs, he explodes through the runner’s body and raises his right forearm as high as possible to force the runner off his feet.

There’s no chance Tate will maintain his balance with a balance-touch plant of the inside arm after this hit. From the snap through the tackle, Mathieu displays no wasted motion; every movement has a purpose for each contingency of the play. Well done.

Mathieu demonstrates the same incisive skill to diagnose the run on this play in the second quarter. Not only does Mathieu split two blockers in the process of making the tackle, but his understanding of angles as a tackler is also on display here. Mathieu is once again the slot defender matched with Johnson on a run to this twin receiver side. Also note that outside receiver DeAndre Hopkins will work towards Mathieu on this play. Whether Tate bounces this play to the sideline or cuts underneath, Hopkins or Johnson will – in theory – work off a double-team of Mathieu to the cornerback outside, depending on their position on the field.

From the beginning, Mathieu has his eyes glued to the Tate. At the snap, Mathieu takes two steps backwards and maintains his back to the sideline to keep Johnson inside or to account for the possibility of Johnson breaking outside and Hopkins slanting inside. Mathieu’s position allows he and the corner to be in position to pick up either receiver depending on the route combination they run if this was a play action pass. Once it’s decidedly run, Mathieu works downhill.

Johnson peels outside to address Mathieu, but the defensive back has his pads square and he’s ready to split Johnson and Hopkins. As you’ll see in the next few frames, this a decisive move rooted in an understanding of where he needs to be to force Tate inside. This is an aspect of defense that some folks forget: The first responsibility is to play team defense and defend a position rather than just make the tackle.

Much like a running back who bounces a play outside to go for the big play at the risk of losing yards when he should earn a tough (and seemingly uninspiring) 2-3 yards and keep his offensive on schedule, a defender who freelances too often can expose a great deal of open field to a runner if he fails to make the play. When a defender plays within the structure of the defense, he might miss the tackle, but still force the ball carrier towards his teammates who will finish the play.

Mathieu’s angle is all about defending the edge first and then making the tackle and that’s how it should be.

The rookie defender extends both arms to swat past Johnson and Hopkins as he drives downhill towards Tate, who has earned the edge at the line of scrimmage. Within the next two steps, Mathieu’s decisive course influences Tate to work downhill.

If Tate bounces his play towards the sideline, he’ll be moving east west and Mathieu the Texans’ back to boundary or cut the runner for a minimal gain. If Mathieu misses this tackle on Tate, Daryl Washington is just inside the left hash to clean this up. If not Washington, then No.25 Jerraud Powers.

Mathieu breaks down so he can attempt the tackle. Note the angle Mathieu takes inside. He’s anticipating where Tate will be and not shooting for where Tate is. This sounds like common sense, but after splitting two receivers, the quick thinking to process this angle is impressive.

Mathieu wraps Tate at the ankle and the runner is dropped after a six-yard gain. It’s a nice play for the Texans, but Mathieu’s support prevents Tate from earning a first down. It’s this awareness where he should be and the confidence to react fast that has helped Mathieu become one of the top first-year defenders in the game.

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