Category Matt Waldman

RSP Flashback: Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson

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Beast Mode. Photo by Matt McGee
Beast Mode. Photo by Matt McGee

One of the most common questions I get from new readers is What did you think about [insert player name here] before [NFL team] drafted him? For the next month, I’m going to post scouting reports of some of my bigger hits, misses, and lingering questions when it comes to the past eight years of evaluating rookies for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I’ll also include the lessons I learned – or am still learning – from the experience of evaluating these players.

It’s Possible To Mistake Long Speed for Stamina

“[Lynch] has the potential to be an excellent, all-purpose back in the NFL. He’d be excellent in a west coast system such as Seattle, Philly, or Green Bay.”

– 2007 Rookie Scouting Portfolio 

“Raw talent alone, Peterson is one of the top two players in this entire draft. if he can be more disciplined as a runner – choices and ball protection – he as the type of rare power-speed-balance combos shared among the all-time great backs of the Brown-Dickerson-Campbell lineage.”

– 2007 Rookie Scouting Portfolio 

Marshawn Lynch was my No.1 running back in the 2007 NFL Draft, including Adrian Peterson – by the smallest of margins. The reason was the polish in Lynch’s game versus the raw talent of Peterson’s. I hated making this call at the time because any fool could see how good Peterson could be.

What I learned from Peterson: I don’t think I have invoked as great a trio of runners to compare to one back’s ability before or since watching Peterson at Oklahoma. You can ask Mike MacGregor and Mike Krueger of FFToday.com about the time I made them sit through a taping of Peterson running like a wild horse against Haloti Ngata’s Oregon team.  After a long day of meetings at Krueger’s loft in Kansas City, they weren’t that interested. I didn’t care; I was smitten with Peterson.

However,  his two biggest issues – discipline with choices at the line of scrimmage and protecting the football – were problematic enough to put talented runners on the bench early in their careers. While I didn’t think either would endanger Peterson’s career – although fumbles were problematic – I made the mistake of thinking the sum of Lynch’s game earned a higher ranking than the totality of the Peterson experience.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Nhr8oYBoiUI]

Classic over analysis.

What I learned from Lynch: Lynch’s versatility as a receiver and interior runner were appealing, but I misjudged his long speed. Even when I look at these highlights, I see that I mistook his stamina for quality, long-speed. There’s a difference. Lynch’s best game-breaking runs often come when he’s using the width of the field to weave through the defense while maintaining a pace and intensity that wears out the pursuit.

As we’ve seen, Lynch’s burst, skill after contact, and footwork make him a top-flight runner in the NFL. However, it’s his stamina on long runs that has helped him create one of the five most great and meaningful runs in the history of the NFL.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/W0URyxkeSZM]

It’s this stamina that is closely related to the trait Lynch displayed at Cal that is perhaps his most endearing to football fans: toughness. I watched numerous games where Lynch was a big part of the offense despite playing through injuries against top competition. The most memorable was a 25-touch, 109-yard performance against a 2006 USC defense that sent numerous players to the NFL.

Lynch carried the ball 20 times, successfully blocked 8 assignments, broke 6 tackles, earned 5 first downs, and caught all 5 targets while playing with 2 sprained ankles. He routinely gained 2-5 yards after contact in this game.

Peterson may have been a wild horse, but Lynch was a true workhorse. However if I had judged Lynch’s speed better and had more experience watching runners work past the same issues that plagued Peterson, I think Peterson would have remained in the top spot.

These .PDFs of Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch are more game summaries than in-depth, play-by-play analysis – the RSP has evolved quite a bit since it’s inception. However, the checklists and information still give you a strong sense of what I saw from two of the best runners in the game today.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Mirror Images: Reggie Wayne – Champ Bailey

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Champ Bailey and Reggie Wayne weren't mirror images 12 years ago, but Fahey explains how age was the defining - and refining - factor. Photo by Jeffery Beall.
Champ Bailey’s legs might be slower, but his experience helps him operate at warp speed. Photo by Jeffery Beall.

Champ Bailey and Reggie Wayne weren’t mirror images 12 years ago, but Fahey explains how age was the defining – and refining – factor. With a combined quarter century of NFL excellence, why not?

By Cian Fahey, Pre Snap Reads

Editor’s Note: A game I’ve been playing in my head in recent months is to take an offensive player and find his mirror image on the opposite side of the line of scrimmage. For example, Joey Galloway and Darrell Green were stylistically mirror images of each other. Both had amazing speed that sometimes overshadowed their underrated displays of craft at their respective positions over the course of lengthy and productive careers. Now I’m putting it on the blog and having some of my friends play.

Recently, on twitter(does this count as breaking the fourth wall?) I asked a simple question:

“If I reverted Peyton Manning and Tom Brady back to being 23 years of age with full health, in what order would you draft Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Manning and Brady?”

The overwhelming majority of responses had either Manning or Brady at the top of the list. It may seem like a stupid question, but why wouldn’t anyone take the rookie stars from last season? Maybe my subsection of the twitter universe is the rare cautious kind who are scared of brash statements or questioning the unknown. That’s unlikely considering the unique quirks of the oddball bringing them together.

Presuming that my poll has an accurate reflection on the majority’s thinking, the answer is simple. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have proven themselves for over a decade in the league. Year in and year out help their teams win football games. It may seem ridiculous, but that aspect is completely overlooked in today’s NFL. Longevity is the most underused word in NFL analysis and the most undervalued consideration for any kind of player ratings or rankings.

When is the last time you heard someone refer to longevity as a positive for a player? If it was recently, how often do you hear it? Unless you’re encountering a rare soul like Alen Dumonijic who is always considering the whole package, the likelihood is whoever you talk to will be caught up in the moment. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, because the moment right now is pretty amazing.

You’ve got quarterbacks rewriting the book on rookie expectations in the NFL.  J.J. Watt, Von Miller and Richard Sherman are altering the perception of defensive players in different ways. There’s no need to question those performances; sit back and enjoy the rare opportunities we have to watch them. We don’t need to question those performances to appreciate the quality of those who have been doing it for much longer periods however. Players who are still doing it despite being some distance past their primes.

Manning an Brady are probably the poster boys for longevity in the NFL. While it’s a great achievement that both have played the game for so long, the positions they play have somewhat allowed them to last as long as they have. It’s also boring and talked to death. Instead, let’s try to appreciate two players playing positions that generally belong to the youth of the league.

Reggie Wayne and Champ Bailey are a combined 69 years on this planet, with a combined 26 seasons of professional football under their belts. At 34 and 35 years of age, they’re supposed to already be filling out the edges of the depth chart and providing guidance to the youth taking on the starting roles. Considering that today’s league is littered with spread offenses and athletic receivers that can either run past you or jink around you, you’re not supposed to be able to succeed without significant speed.

Of course, every casual fan of the game thinks that Champ Bailey isn’t able to succeed without his speed because of that playoff game against the Baltimore Ravens. That’s not exactly true. Bailey had an outstanding season last year. He doesn’t have the same athleticism that he once had, but he still has enough to flourish in the right situations. Press coverage against one of the fastest receivers in the league with no safety help is not the right situation.

He may not be a shutdown cornerback anymore, but he isn’t that far off. He can still move all over the field, has the speed to run with most receivers, the quickness to get ahead of almost any and the intelligence to still get the most out of his ball-skills.

Reggie Wayne by Omar Phillips.
Reggie Wayne by Omar Phillips.
With veteran receivers, it's the first 10 yards that yield the final five. Photo by Dan04.
With veteran receivers, it’s the first 10 yards that yield the final five. Photo by Dan04.

Wayne on the other hand has embraced his role as a possession receiver during the Andrew Luck-era in Indianapolis. He was never solely a burner, but Wayne was much more of an all-around receiver during his prime, whereas last season he played the Hines Ward role in Bruce Arians’ offense. Within that role, Wayne was able to take advantage of defensive backs with his refined route running and accurate understanding of coverages to consistently come free. Of course, even though his speed had faded, his hands were only getting softer as the seasons went on.

Having those aspects of his game still in tact allowed him to succeed still, but much like Bailey, where he fit was also vital. With T.Y. Hilton, LaVon Brazill and Donnie Avery last year, Wayne was surrounded by more than enough speed to pull the top off the defense, while Hilton and Brazill are joined by Darrius Heyward-Bey in those roles for this upcoming season.

Longevity isn’t a reflection of talent. It’s a reflection of ability. The ability to evolve, adapt, and excel, despite facing the different obstacles that emerge throughout the span of a football career. So even while Wayne and Bailey’s physical traits continue to diminish, it’s their football abilities that have allowed them to extend their longevity to Favreian heights.

At some point, both players will be retired. When that happens, you can be pretty certain that both will be in the Hall of Fame. That’s not because they had a record-breaking season or two, or because they starred as rookies. It’s because for over a decade, they were superstars.

RSO Writers’ League Team Profile: Ryan McDowell, DLF

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Lots of Luck for Ryan McDowell's team - $103.5 million of him. But he also snagged some deals. Photo by Angie Six
Lots of Luck for Ryan McDowell’s team – $103.5 million of him. But he also snagged some deals. Photo by Angie Six

Once a month during the season, I’ll be writing about the Reality Sports Online Keeper Salary Cap League that I started with 13 other football writers. If you’re seeking a great GM experience that offers the complexities of realistic contract negotiations and salary cap ramifications in an easy-to-use league management system that does all the work for you, join an RSO league. Use the promotion code RSP20%OFF to earn a 20 percent discount.

Pre-draft strategy

Heading into this auction, I was a bit anxious, mainly about venturing to a new site. That was a bit out of my comfort zone, but the team at RSO could not have made that any easier. Following the tutorials they provided, I felt comfortable with the software and couldn’t wait to get started.

My usual plan with auctions is to target a few specific players at each position and go after them. I typically don’t study average auction values or even assign an estimated budget because auctions seem to each be so different. It is difficult to compare one to another and I think it is crucial to be able to make snap decisions as the value of players is adjusted based on when they are nominated and the remaining funds available to teams.

Entering this auction, what I focused most on was the limited use of long-term contracts. I knew I wanted to use my four-year deal and likely both of my three-year contracts on quarterbacks and wide receivers. I narrowed my list of targets down even further with the potential long-term deals in mind.

McDowell’s Team

Mike Glennon (TB) R
Matt Scott (JAC) R
Andrew Luck (IND) 4 years/$103.5 million
Ryan Tannehill (MIA) 2 years/$9 million
Ryan Mallett (NE) 1 year/$500,000
Jason Snelling (ATL) R 1 year/$500,000
Chris Johnson (TEN) 1 year/$12 million
Stevan Ridley (NE) 2 years/$16 million
LaRod Stephens-Howling (PIT) 1 year/$500,000
Danario Alexander (SD) 1 year/$3.5 million
Stephen Hill (NYJ) 1 year/$1.5 million
Justin Blackmon (JAC) 2 years/$10.5 million
Nick Toon (NO) 1 year/$500,000
Josh Gordon (CLE) 3 years/$19 million
Jacoby Jones (BAL) 1 year/$500,000
James Jones (GB) 1 year/$7.5 million
Hakeem Nicks (NYG) 3 years/$54 million
Rob Housler (ARI) 1 year/$6 million
Joel Dreessen (DEN) 1 year/$500,000
Virgil Green (DEN) 1 year/$500,000
Josh Brown (NYG) 1 year/$1.5 million
Mason Crosby (GB) 1 year/$500,000
Packers Defense 1 year/$500,000
Falcons Defense 1 year/$500,000
Raiders Defense 1 year/$500,000
Jordan Reed (WAS) R
Joel Dreessen (DEN) R
Virgil Green (DEN) R
Josh Brown (NYG)
Mason Crosby (GB) R

– See more at: http://www.realitysportsonline.com/Rosters.aspx#sthash.c38dg4Tn.dpuf

How did the auction unfold for you?

Would Gordon be the best receiver of the 2013 Draft class? Cleveland thinks so. Photo by Erik Daniel Drost.
I wanted Gordon, but was tentative with the first nomination while feeling out the process. McDowell capitalized. Photo by Erik Daniel Drost.

After nabbing the first nominated player, Browns wide receiver Josh Gordon on a three-year deal for $19 million, I began to experience some technical difficulty. I had to close the site and start again, which led to my draft board listing all available players to fail. While this was an inconvenience, it was a small hurdle. Next, I had trouble with my home internet, which ultimately led to me speeding across the street to my office in the middle of the auction.

Once I was setup there, it was not long until one of my top targets, Colts quarterback Andrew Luck was nominated. I was engaged in a bidding war and ultimately overpaid, but got my guy on a four-year deal. I recently stated that Luck might be the safest player to own in a dynasty league, so he is a great option to tag with the lone four-year contract.

Next, I chose to focus on grabbing some deals at running back. I knew with the rapid change from year to year at the position, I did not want to give long-term deals. My next three wins brought me Chris Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall and Stevan Ridley for a total of $31 million, including Ridley on a two-year deal (McDowell has since traded away Mendenhall to Matt Papson’s team for Dennis Pitta).

With some depth at running back, it was time to turn back to the wideouts and I grabbed Hakeem Nicks (3 years/$54 million), Justin Blackmon (2 years/$10.5 million) and James Jones (1 year/$7.5 million). I loved the balance of my team at this point and went on to add my defenses, kickers and young depth at each position. With the auction winding down and my team running out of money, I still had no tight end. I targeted a pair of the most hyped young tight ends of the off-season, Jordan Cameron and Rob Housler. After Bryan Fontaine pushed my limits on Cameron, I focused on Housler and severely overpaid, giving him a one year deal for $6 million.

Because I had acquired solid running back depth and did not feel comfortable with Housler as my starter, I later dealt Mendenhall in a package deal to acquire Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta, who should be a much more reliable option as my starting tight end.

Best Deals (Millions in years)

  • Josh Gordon (3 years/$19 million)
  • Stevan Ridley (2 years/$13 million)
  • Justin Blackmon (2 years/$10.5 million)

Worst (Millions in years)

  • Andrew Luck (4 years/$103.5 million)
  • Rob Housler (1 year/$6 million)

Good deals for other owners

Jeff Tefertiller's deal with RG3 has McDowell feeling some buyer's remorse with Luck. Photo by Mike Davis.
Jeff Tefertiller’s deal with RG3 has McDowell feeling some buyer’s remorse with Luck. Photo by Mike Davis.
  • (Lance Zierlein) Anquan Boldin (1 year/$4 million)- Boldin should be a solid starter in this format and came very cheap.
  • (Rivers McCown) Doug Martin (3 years/$67.5 million)- The Martin nomination came early and I think everyone was still feeling things out. Well done!
  • (Jeff Tefertiller) Robert Griffin III (3 years/$46 million)- This deal really makes me re-think my Luck contract.
  • (Sigmund Bloom) Martellus Bennett (1 year/$0.5 million)- Again, we all fell asleep at the wheel. This would have been a much better choice for me than Housler.

Questionable deals for owners (IMHO)

  • (Bryan Fontaine) Isaiah Pead (4 years/$7 million)- Giving a possible RBBC the only four-year deal is too risky for me. If it works out, Fontaine is getting a steal though.
  • (Jason Wood) Jared Cook (3 years/$5.5 million)= Again, Cook is too unproven and I would not want to give a mid-level tight end one of the valuable three-year deals.
  • (Lance Zierlein) TY Hilton (4 years/$26.5 million)- I really like Hilton, he just would not have been my choice to give the lone four-year contract.

Fave team other than mine

Jeff Tefertiller- Jeff was the talk of the auction early on as he threw out some big contracts early. Of course, that meant that he had to sit and wait for some deals at the end of the auction, but the end result looks good to me. He is loaded with studs at almost every starting position, including Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones, Ray Rice, Robert Griffin III, Pierre Garcon and Torrey Smith. Of course, Jeff will need to find a RB2 and a solid tight end, but in a fourteen team league, there will always be some holes.

Impressions of Reality Sports Online

As I mentioned, I had some early technical issues, but I think that is mostly due to my disappointing Time Warner internet service. The RSO software was smooth and easy to catch on to. It offered a service that I had never envisioned and challenged me to think on my feet, as I not only bid on the services of players, but assigned them contracts at the same time. I would certainly recommend other fantasy players to try out the RSO platform.

Short-term / Long-term View of Team

Stop me if you’ve heard this…but I really like my team for both the short-term and long-term. Although my team is filled with young players, I feel comfortable relying on most of those as starters for the 2013 season, including players like Luck, Gordon and Blackmon. At the same time, the youth of those players offers upside and promise for future success.

After the auction, I was really liking my depth at wide receiver, especially for a fourteen team league, and then Gordon and Blackmon were both suspended multiple games. As a result, the first two to four weeks will be a balancing act, but I still have Jones, Alexander and Nicks to lean on.

I am looking forward to the challenge of managing the contracts this time next year, as well as future seasons. It will be crucial to remain active and dedicated to the league in order to succeed.

RSO Monthly Update: Off Season Grinding

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
If you acquire Victor Cruz before he became a starter, you're probably a grinder. See below. Photo by Football Schedule.
If you acquired Victor Cruz before he became a starter, you’re probably a grinder. See below. Photo by Football Schedule.

Once a month, I’ll be writing about the Reality Sports Online Keeper Salary Cap League that I started with 13 other football writers. If you’re seeking a great GM experience that offers the complexities of realistic contract negotiations and salary cap ramifications in an easy-to-use league management system that does all the work for you, join an RSO league. Use the promotion code RSP20%OFF to earn a 20 percent discount.

When I was a kid nothing ruled my free time more than pickup games of football. The setting for those games was dictated by your age and neighborhood. When you’re a six year-old living in an apartment complex, it means your games are restricted to whatever kids you could round-up within a two-block radius of the complex.

At eight, your territory expanded to the entire complex and the adjoining neighborhood to include the friends you made at school. By the time you’re 12, your pool of competition and settings for games spanned a five-mile radius of your home.

If your family moved during your childhood, then you know that it adds another dynamic to neighborhood pickup games. I moved three times as a kid and always to an apartment complex, so I’m familiar with being the new guy.

As the new guy if you want to make friends fast you want to maintain that delicate balance of proving that you’re neither the chump nor the bully. Pickup football games were the best way to do it. The first thing I always tried to do before the game started was to show something before we picked teams.

The two easiest ways to heighten your neighborhood draft stock was the vertical game. I always made sure I brought a football with me to the game. Just before the group chose captains I either got someone to throw me a deep pass or I had someone go deep. Do one of those two things and your draft stock jumped from dead-last to at least the middle of the pack.

But the best way to skyrocket your neighborhood draft stock and scout much of your competition at the same time was to initiate a pre-game warm-up of ‘Gator’. If you’re not familiar with the name, you probably played the game. It was essentially a kick return drill. The object was to catch the ball and run through the field of players to the end zone.

As a kid who wore a size 10 shoe by the time he was 9, I was generally big enough to compete with guys 2-3 years older than me. I made sure I did one of three things: caught the kick and ran over someone; knocked the biggest guy down with a block where I had to outrun others to get there; or run through someone on the way to tackling the ball carrier.

The immediate goal wasn’t to try to show everyone you were the best guy on the field. You might not be and that was alright. You wanted everyone to know that you weren’t the chump of the group.

Likewise you always noted the guys who could catch, tackle, and break tackles. But I always tried to spot the kid with the grinder mentality. There was always at least one kid in every neighborhood game who did the little things that made a team good that most didn’t notice. Having one or two stars was important, but you needed quality, capable worker bees to build a winning team.

Alfred Morris, the Grinder's grinder. Photo by Keith Allison.
Alfred Morris, the Grinder’s grinder. Photo by Keith Allison.

You can see the same elements at play with fantasy football owners. While I competed with all-star fantasy writers like David Dodds, Sigmund Bloom, Gregg Rosenthal, Scott Pianowski, and Bob Harris while writing for FFToday.com, becoming part of Footballguys staff  in 2009 was like expanding the neighborhood territory for more pickup games.

Invitations to re-draft, dynasty, and IDP leagues came from all directions – especially from Footballguys staff. And this is one of those neighborhoods with a concentration of all-stars in their own right. Bob Henry, Jason Wood, John Norton, and Maurile Tremblay are just a few of the names I could mention.

However, there were Footballguys not as well-known to me at the time, but they had plenty of game. There are about six I want to mention, but two at the top of the list are Aaron Rudnicki and Jeff Tefertiller.  “Ruds” couldn’t make the draft date of the RSO league start-up, but you best believe that until he quits playing fantasy football I’m sending him an invitation to compete in any league I ever run because he’s adept at IDP, re-draft, and dynasty formats and he’s a master pick-sniper on draft day.

Tefertiller isn’t an IDP guy, but I enjoy competing with him because he’s a grinder. In dynasty formats, off-season grinding can build you a winner. Here’s a list of players I’ve added – and sadly, sometimes dropped – while doing the off-season grinding on the waiver wire to enhance the back-end of my dynasty rosters:

  • Victor Cruz
  • Alfred Morris
  • Dennis Pitta
  • Lance Moore
  • Brandon Lloyd
  • Chris Ivory
  • Andre Brown
  • Brian Hartline
  • LaGarrette Blount
  • Greg Hardy
  • Vontaze Burfict
  • Dannell Ellerbe
  • Thomas DeCoud

Tefertiller is one of the more active dynasty grinders I compete against. So it came as no surprise he’s the most active owner on the RSO waiver wire during the slowest months of the football year and only a month removed from our free agent auction.

Not including RSO co-founder Matt Papson, who took over a team where the original owner had to abandon the auction half way through the process and has made seven transactions and numerous trades since late-May to salvage this team, Tefertiller and I have been the most active off-season grinders, but I only have four transactions to Tefertiller’s 14.

Here’s Tefertiller’s roster with the added players in bold: 

Quarterback Running Back Wide Receiver
Zac Dysert (DEN) R Lance Dunbar (DAL) R DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) R
Brock Osweiler (DEN) R Michael Turner (ATL) Jarrett Boykin (GB) R
Robert Griffin III (WAS) Cedric Benson (GB) R Deonte Thompson (BAL) R
Shaun Hill (DET) R Ray Rice (BAL) Terrance Williams (DAL) R
Kyle Orton (DAL) R Beanie Wells (ARI) R Patrick Edwards (DET) R
Josh Boyce (NE) R
Brandon Marshall (CHI)
Pierre Garcon (WAS)
Julio Jones (ATL)
Torrey Smith (BAL)
Tight End Kicker Defense
Chris Gragg (BUF) R Shayne Graham (CLE) R CIN Team Defense (CIN) R
Jeff Cumberland (NYJ) R Garrett Hartley (NO) SD Team Defense (SD)
Marcedes Lewis (JAC) NYG Team Defense (NYG) R
Delanie Walker (TEN) R JAC Team Defense (JAC) R

Tefertiller has also cycled through this list of players:

  • Chiefs QB Tyler Bray
  • Packers QB B.J. Coleman
  • Packers QB Graham Harrell
  • Saints RB Travis Cadet
  • Jets RB Joe McKnight
  • Browns WR Travis Benjamin

If you pay attention to OTA news then you can see the pattern with the players added and dropped from his roster. It should also be obvious to you that Tefertiller has a good crew of receivers, an RB1 in Ray Rice, and a potential superstar in Robert Griffin. This team may have a hole at RB2 and lack a quality backup at QB, but he has also built this roster to have room to fill these holes through free agency and trades as the preseason heats up.

Cumberland is a serviceable addition at tight end and Thompson, Dunbar, and Boykin all are an injury away from getting a chance to prove themselves as at least rotational contributors. While some owners may have chosen to spend more energy acquiring running backs at this point, wide receiver is the most liquid of positions to trade and he’s building on his strength so he can use this position as a bargaining chip rather than attempting to win the lottery with an unknown back.

Beanie Wells, Michael Turner, or Cedric Benson may not see an NFL field this year, but at this point it’s worth holding onto them to see if a team acquires their services when a starter gets hurt. NFL roster management accounts for finances so backups on a depth chart might be the No.2 or No.3 back in name, but some may only hold those roles because they are cheaper and have growth potential.

Greg Hardy is waiver wire fodder turned double-digit sack monster. Photo by Parker Anderson.
Greg Hardy is waiver wire fodder turned double-digit sack monster. Photo by Parker Anderson.

However, a team that sees its starter lost for the season due to injury may decide that a one-year deal at a larger salary for an established veteran is a better option than what’s on the depth chart – especially when these three players have sat at home long enough for it to sink in that a multi-year deal with a guaranteed starting role is a thing of the past.

Quarterback Yrs $ Running Back Yrs $ Wide Receiver Yrs $
Jay Cutler (CHI) 1 4.0 Arian Foster (HOU) 2 51.0 Calvin Johnson (DET) 2 69.5
Carson Palmer (ARI) R 1 3.0 Steven Jackson (ATL) 1 16.5 Cecil Shorts (JAC) 4 18.5
Alex Smith (KC) R 2 2.5 Ryan Williams (ARI) R 1 2.5 DeSean Jackson (PHI) 3 10.5
Sean Renfree (ATL) R 3 R Ben Tate (HOU) R 3 7.5 Keenan Allen (SD) 3 R
Alex Green (GB) R 1 0.5 LaVon Brazill (IND) R 1 0.5
Shaun Draughn (KC) R 1 0.5 Marvin Jones (CIN) R 1 1.0
Miguel Maysonet (CLE) R 1 0.5 Domenik Hixon (CAR) R 1 0.5
Bobby Rainey (BAL) 1 0.5 Earl Bennett (CHI) R 1 0.5
Marquess Wilson (CHI) R 3 R
Da’Rick Rogers (BUF) R 3 R
Kenbrell Thompkins (NE) R 1 0.5

Tight End

Yrs

$

Kicker

Yrs

$

Defense

Yrs

$
Vernon Davis (SF) 1 8 Sebastian Janikowski (OAK) 1 0.5 Seattle 1 3
Dwayne Allen (IND) R 1 2.5 Robbie Gould (CHI) R 1 0.5
Luke Willson (SEA) R 3 R
Julius Thomas (DEN) 1 0.5            
Zach Sudfeld (NE) R 1 0.1  

Like Tefertiller, I continued to add to a strength by acquiring Julius Thomas and Zach Sudfeld after hearing good news from OTAs. If I hit on three tight ends from this group of five, I have bargaining chips to trade for picks, cap room, or depth. In addition to this pair of tight ends, I dropped Cedric Peerman for Miguel Maysonet just until we learn more about the Cleveland depth chart and Richardson’s shin issues.

I also dropped Bobby Rainey today and added Travis Benjamin, who has a good shot to start two games to begin the year. The move also might afford me time to sit on LaVon Brazill to see if he can keep his roster spot as a Colt or find a job elsewhere.

I also traded away Alex Smith to Papson for a third-round pick last month. Cutler and Palmer are enough depth to pull the trigger to give away a player I never meant to acquire.

None of this grinding may help either Tefertiller or my team – in fact, there’s a chance we dropped players who might have helped us more – but I don’t believe it. I think the consistent tinkering and movement of the bottom end of a roster lends credence to that idea that part of skill is creating your own good luck.

Try RSO for your next league. Use the promotion code RSP20%OFF to earn a 20 percent discount.

Mirror Images: Percy Harvin-Lardarius Webb

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Percy Harvin and Ladarius Webb are do-everything, physical players whose games are bigger than their bodies. Photo by Rick Burtzel.
Percy Harvin and Lardarius Webb are do-everything, physical players whose games are bigger than their bodies. Photo by Rick Burtzel.

 

By Cian Fahey, Pre Snap Reads

Editor’s Note: A game I’ve been playing in my head in recent months is to take an offensive player and find his mirror image on the opposite side of the line of scrimmage. For example, Joey Galloway and Darrell Green were stylistically mirror images of each other. Both had amazing speed that sometimes overshadowed their underrated displays of craft at their respective positions over the course of lengthy and productive careers. Now I’m putting it on the blog and having some of my friends play.

What are you?

It’s a simple question with a million answers. Some of us will answer it immediately, maybe with just one word. Others will spend their whole lives searching for an answer and never come up with one. A smaller portion of us will never give a damn.

No matter how you feel about your answer, it’s impossible for you to escape the question. If you don’t answer it, plenty more will for you. Even if you do answer it, others will still look to change what you say. That’s the world we live in.

Everything needs to be labelled. Everything needs to be classified. Most of all everything needs to be simplified.

Recently, former college quarterback and 2013 NFL draft prospect Denard Robinson had to ask himself that question. Robinson probably wanted to answer it “quarterback” but those deciding his fate came up with different ideas. At the combine he tried to be a wide receiver. At the draft he was labelled a running-back. Now that he’s in the league, he’s being called an offensive weapon.

An offensive weapon. Seems ambiguous, right?

Is it really anymore ambiguous than any other label we use in the NFL? Mike Wallace and Anquan Boldin are wide receivers. Very little of their games really crossover. Jacquizz Rodgers and Michael Turner were running-backs for the same team last year, you’re not going to confuse one for the other. Craig Stevens and Jimmy Graham couldn’t play the same position if you spent 10 years trying to teach them.

That’s just the offensive side of the ball, on defense things get even more muddled the further you explore the depths of the league.

In reality, every offensive player is an offensive weapon, while every defensive player is a defensive weapon(or defensive shield if you like). The phrasing really doesn’t matter, it’s just that, phrasing. What is important in football isn’t who you are, it’s what you do. Some players have such skill-sets that they welcome the label they receive, but others spend their careers confusing those watching them.

Webb is Harvin's mirror image on the defensive side of the ball. Photo by Keith Allison.
Webb is Harvin’s mirror image on the defensive side of the ball. Photo by Keith Allison.

What is Percy Harvin? What is Lardarius Webb?

The simple answers are wide receiver and cornerback. Of course, they’re also wrong answers. Harvin and Webb are their positions in the same way that I am a writer. Technically, it’s an accurate statement, but it tells you nothing about me or what I really do.

Harvin and Webb both missed much of last season because of injuries, but that’s the most tenuous of connections you could create. Harvin is listed as being 5-11 and 184 lbs, while Webb is down as 5-10 and 182 lbs. Both have very similar, slender frames, but both also have significantly more strength and power running through their bodies than one would expect from simply looking at them on the field.

Harvin is known for being an electric player who can jink around, run past, or sidestep defenders in tight areas, but he also has that ability to put his head down and run through defenders when he has to. Webb is considered one of the very best cover cornerbacks in the NFL, but he also plays in the slot for the Ravens in nickel packages when he gets to show off his outstanding tackling ability.

Webb is the rare defensive back who is able to punish running-backs with tackles, while Harvin is the rare slot receiver who can run over safeties rather than be ran over by them.

Being able to do everything is one thing, but being able to do everything from different areas of the field is something special. Outside of playing on the offensive line, the only position Harvin seemingly hasn’t lined up at during his career so far is tight end. That’s not even considering his impact as a kick returner. Webb doesn’t play safety or on the defensive line, but the way he plays the slot position in nickel packages essentially makes him the fourth or fifth linebacker on the field, while he can play either side as an outside cornerback in base defenses.

Defending Harvin is next to impossible. He’s not the kind of player who runs away from linebackers and uses his strength to overpower defensive backs, he’s the kind of player who doesn’t need to discriminate with his talents. In other words, he can beat whoever he wants in whatever way he wants.

Beating Webb is just as difficult. He has the physical style to fight with tight ends or bigger receivers, but the fluidity to cover a guy like Wes Welker inside or run with AJ Green down the sideline. There are few cornerbacks who are better than Webb and maybe only one who is more versatile.

So that brings us back to the question. What is Percy Harvin? What is Lardarius Webb?

What am I?

I’m…confused by the question.

Mirror Images: Darren Sproles/Charles Woodson

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Charles Woodson still has it. Perhaps not for very long, but long enough to help my team as a veteran presence and versatile option. Photo by Elvis Kennedy.
Charles Woodson still has it. Perhaps not for very long, but long enough to help my team as a veteran presence and versatile option. Photo by Elvis Kennedy.

By Cian Fahey, Pre Snap Reads

Editor’s Note: A game I’ve been playing in my head in recent months is to take an offensive player and find his mirror image on the opposite side of the line of scrimmage. For example, Joey Galloway and Darrell Green were stylistically mirror images of each other. Both had amazing speed that sometimes overshadowed their underrated displays of craft at their respective positions over the course of lengthy and productive careers. Now I’m putting it on the blog and having some of my friends play.

Here’s an idea. Take 11 offensive players and 11 defensive players. Whoever you want, there are no limitations to who you want to choose. Set up in whatever formations you want, run whatever plays you want, but every single play must work to the strength of every single player you have on the field. You can’t run a screen with Calvin Johnson and you can’t drop Demarcus Ware into coverage. Easy, right?

Okay, now do the same, but you have to include Darren Sproles and Charles Woodson on the field. Where do you put them? What do you ask them to do?

You can probably rule out running the ball with Sproles, but you still have to figure out where he should line up and what route he should run. Is he best as a slot receiver? Releasing from the backfield? In a receiving position behind an offensive tackle? Behind a receiver in a bunch?

Once he’s lined up, should we run a screen for him? Use that screen as a decoy? Give him an option route in space? A quick pass in the flat so he can turn the corner in space?

What about Woodson? Let’s put him outside on a top receiver, or maybe move him into the slot to cover a quicker possession receiver? If he is in a safety position he can come up in run support or read the quarterback’s intentions though? Should we blitz him off the edge? Spy the quarterback? Put him in a zone or ask him to trail someone in man coverage?

It’s next to impossible to figure out how to best use Charles Woodson and Darren Sproles. Yet, no matter where you put them and what you ask them to do, you’re more than likely going to get something spectacular after a handful of snaps.

Woodson and Sproles have always shared a skill-set in my eyes. They don’t look anything like each other from a physical point of view. Woodson is 6’1″ and has somewhat of a lanky frame with long arms and a stretched core. Sproles on the other hand is a very compact 5’6″ without any real wingspan to speak of. What links the duo is their versatility and ability to create from anywhere on the field in any situation.

Darren Sproles by Football Schedule
Darren Sproles by Football Schedule

Sproles is considered as a receiving back rather than a running-back, and his usage over the years supports this suggestion, but the Saints have had great success with him running the ball since he came over from the San Diego Chargers in 2011. Sproles averaged 6.9 yards per rushing attempt during his first season and 5.1 yards per carry during his second, most recent season in New Orleans.

He’s not Adrian Peterson, but he’s also not LaRod Stephens-Howling. Sproles might not run over people often, but he uses his considerable bulk combined with his low-center of gravity to break tackles and gain forward momentum in space and at times between the tackles.

Having the ability to run between the tackles, run outside, catch passes out of the backfield, and run screens is like being a cornerback who can line up on either side of the field, in the slot, as a seventh piece of the front seven, while being able to blitz, play the run, drop into zone coverage, spy the quarterback, and play man coverage. In other words, it’s like being Charles Woodson.

Woodson has never been Darrelle Revis or Richard Sherman in their prime (that’s presuming each is at their peak now, which may be foolish to presume). He won’t lock down one receiver and allow the defense to forget about that side of the field for the day, but he will scare the life out of any quarterback that has to throw at him. Much like Sproles, it’s not the quantity of positive plays that Woodson accumulates, it’s the quality of the few that he makes that are the difference.

Every single time the Saints draw up a play for Sproles, it has the potential to go the distance to the end zone. Every time the offense falls into the trap of throwing towards Woodson, they risk seeing a defender take it the distance.

Woodson and Sproles are the NFL's version of Vinnie 'the Microwave' Johnson. Photo by Elvis Kennedy.
Woodson and Sproles are the NFL’s version of Vinnie ‘the Microwave’ Johnson. Photo by Elvis Kennedy.

Woodson has 11 career touchdowns, 55 interceptions, and 24 forced fumbles. He is a black hole on the field who is returning to the original black hole in Oakland. Big plays find their way to Woodson, just like they do to Sproles.

Of course, the players I’ve described above are not the same versions of Sproles and Woodson we’ll see moving forward. Both players are past their prime. As a running-back, even considering his limited usage, the 30-year-old Sproles will be entering the twilight of his career.

Woodson has already extended his career past the point where most consider him an impact player. The soon-to-be 37-year-old returns to the Oakland Raiders and hope to provide enough big plays to make a difference. Although both players are in decline and those plays are fewer and further between, they still strike fear into their opponents.

Dri Archer: Offensive Weapon/Caffeine Substitute

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Dri Archer is DeAnthony Thomas without the hype. Photo by Lindsayjf91.
Dri Archer is DeAnthony Thomas without the hype. Photo by Lindsayjf91.

With an alarm clock that goes off at 4:30 am, dawn comes around fast in my household. It doesn’t help matters that I’m not a coffee drinker. But if I could watch more prospects with Dri Archer’s big-play ability, I’d have a great 5:00 am caffeine substitute.

The Kent State offensive weapon averaged 9 yards per carry (yes carry, not touch) on his 150 attempts in 2012. He was also the only player in the FBS to earn over 1300 yards rushing and catch over 500 yards of passes last year. There’s a good possibility that Black Mamba has nothing on Archer but more surrounding talent in a better offensive system.

The Go Daddy Bowl in Mobile Alabama might be one of Archer’s worst statistical outings – 99 total yards and a touchdown – but in this game Archer had one of the best non-scoring runs I saw last year. At 5’8″, 164 pounds, Archer is an inch shorter and 10 pounds lighter than Tavon Austin. Regardless of what anyone says, Austin will be a test case for smaller hybrid players. If Austin succeeds right away, Archer and DeAnthony Thomas could see their draft stock rise and we begin to hear analysts talk about skill in “pound-for-pound” terms.

If Austin’s game translates, here is a coming attraction of what Archer might bring to a pro stadium near you.

Short Area Handling + Long Speed = Instant Offense

Here’s a jet sweep in the first half of the Go Daddy Bowl where Archer gains 44 yards on one of the best individual displays of speed and agility I saw in 2012. This is a 1st and 10 at the Kent State 34 from a 1×2 receiver, 11 personnel set. Archer is the single receiver on the strong side of the formation and motions towards the quarterback, taking the jet sweep as the strong side guard and running back pulls to the weak side edge. Here’s the play and below it, my thoughts on how it unfolds.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_ZfDeYl5lA?start=66&w=560&h=315]

Archer sets up his blocks with a fantastic cut inside the running back, who has to contend with an edge defender penetrating seven yards deep into the backfield. It’s not just the deep penetration early in the play that makes the ball carrier’s adjustment so impressive, it’s the fact that he has to dip inside the running back and away from the quarterback.

Avoiding one obstacle this early in a play is enough to foil most runners, but I’ve seen enough quarterback-runner collisions in my day to believe that what Archer does here is that 1 out of 10 scenario that worked in his favor. Archer then makes a second dip inside the pulling guard as he gets just outside the hash to reach the line of scrimmage.

These two cuts not only prevent a loss, but open the field for a huge gain up the hash and flat. He beats the backside defender with his acceleration is in the second level. Eight yards later, he dips outside the safety with a lightning-quick change of direction at top speed as he crosses the first down marker.

Archer beats the defensive back around the corner and reaches the 50 (16 yards into his 44-yard gain) with another secondary defender five yards down field with an angle on the runner. Archer reaches the 45, takes two steps and dips inside the corner, using his outside arm to ward off the defender.

This is a strong example of how a stiff arm can have value as either an expression of leverage or power.  In Archer’s case it’s a simple tap of the flat-footed defensive back’s shoulder as he’s executing a swift cut to get behind three lineman working up field at the 40 and the stiff arm sends the defender to the ground.

Archer crosses behind these linemen at the 40, cuts across to the left hash at the 35, and makes a sharp cut inside the safety at the 30. If he doesn’t have to run into his wide receiver to make the cut he probably continues across the field and scores. However, the combination of his cut to avoid the corner and the flash of his teammate behind him forces Archer to cut towards traffic where there are five defenders within a five-yard radius.

As he reaches the 25 Archer is wrapped and it ends one of the best runs I’ve seen all year.

Again, I’ll recap why I loved this run and how it might give us a clue to what could make him a successful NFL prospect as an offensive/special teams weapon:

  • Archer has a feel for anticipating and avoiding penetration.
  • The ball carrier’s quickness and change of direction isn’t predicated on stop-start moves that don’t work as well in the NFL; he bends runs and accelerates through cuts, which coupled with his anticipation makes it even more difficult for backside pursuit to get easy plays when penetration alters the runner’s path.
  • Archer has a feel for setting up blocks and despite his electronically timed 4.28-speed, he has the patience to work behind his blockers.
  • Kent State’s big-play weapon plays with good pad level, keeps his legs moving, and understands the value of using a stiff arm to ward off contact as opposed to an instrument of punishment.

If not Austin, Why Not DeSean Jackson?

The Eagles receiver is 6’0″, 178 pounds and has shown he’s a capable, impact player as an NFL starter split from the formation. Archer has the fundamental skills that teams can build on when it comes to receiving: He catches the ball with his hands away from his body, and he doesn’t let impending contact dissuade him from attacking the football or break his concentration.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARPF1KIiiZ8?start=185&w=560&h=315]

I also like that there is some evidence of Jackson using his hands and feet to work free of a potential jam from Dolphins draft pick Don Jones on this play.

This 18-yard gain is Archer’s final catch of the game –  2nd and 10 at the Arkansas State 45 with 0:57 in the half from a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun set. Archer is the slot man on the strong side at the right hash with a safety playing 15 yards off the hash and Jones as the nickel back playing  two yards off the line of scrimmage to Archer’s inside.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_ZfDeYl5lA?start=155frameborder=&w=560&h=315]

A second safety is in the middle of the field about eight yards off the line of scrimmage but Archer and the quarterback do a good job of reading him crowd the line of scrimmage as the pre-snap phase ends. It this safety that gives the quarterback and receiver an opening to exploit.

Archer does a fine job of using his hands to avoid Jones’ jam as he slants across the field to the opposite hash, catching the ball 12 yards to the opposite hash with his hands.

I haven’t seen enough from Archer to give a serious comparison to Austin or Jackson beyond his athleticism and open-field skill. In these respects, Archer fits within this spectrum of athlete. However, as much as I appreciate what Archer does from the backfield I can’t help but see him more as a niche player than an every-down threat unless he’s drafted as a receiver.

There’s more I have to watch before I can deliver a more definitive analysis. Still, Archer is a player who can wake up defenses and fans in a hurry and it makes him worth watching when Kent State takes the field in September.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Mirror Images: Ben Roethlisberger-Troy Polamalu

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
All Pittsburgh, all the time for the former Browns scout Matt Williamson. Photo by Alex Abboud.
Big risks yield big plays – and big mistakes. Photo by Alex Abboud.

 

By Cian Fahey,  Pre Snap Reads

Editor’s Note: A game I’ve been playing in my head in recent months is to take an offensive player and find his mirror image on the opposite side of the line of scrimmage. For example, Joey Galloway and Darrell Green were stylistically mirror images of each other. Both had amazing speed that sometimes overshadowed their underrated displays of craft at their respective positions over the course of lengthy and productive careers. Now I’m putting it on the blog and having some of my friends play.

Probably the saddest and most disturbing story of this off-season has been that of young Titus Young. I shouldn’t really call the wide receiver “young”, because he’s actually older than I am. But I feel there is a certain level of empathy that everyone can feel with the troubled star and his issues aren’t a reflection of youth, experience, or anything like that. For whatever reason, Young embarked on a misguided journey full of reckless actions this off-season, reckless actions that ultimately landed him in prison and out of the league.

For the moment at least, Young’s recklessness will force him to focus on fixing his life rather than concentrating on reclaiming his career. Plenty of players have proven that they can rebound from personal struggles to build a successful career. What Young has done isn’t impossible to recover from.

However, this story is not about Young. It’s about the character trait of recklessness.

Young was reckless with his decision-making both as a football player and a citizen. It’s the on-field perception of the term that interests me. Being reckless isn’t something that is supposed to be celebrated unless it’s the affable rogue in some adventure film. In today’s league it is typically associated with off-the-field decisions like Young’s or the much-maligned head shots defensive backs deliver in the passing game.

Still, there are reckless players who we celebrate. It’s the first quality that comes to mind with Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu.

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ teammates have many positive traits that are often celebrated first. Both have two Super Bowl rings, and nearly earned another. Both have a plethora of Pro Bowl trips under their belts and both have been considered amongst the best in the league at their positions for most of their careers.

Both are great individual players, but have special skills as improvisers that make fitting into a team’s structure a difficult balance for bringing out the best in these star players while maintaining team efficiency.

No season shows off the similarities between Roethlisberger and Polamalu more than the 2008 trip to the Super Bowl.

Bruce Arians and Dick LeBeau had built their offensive and defensive schemes around their two superstar players. Roethlisberger was given free rein while working under Arians. He wasn’t asked to win games in the same way Peyton Manning or Tom Brady were. He didn’t lead a high-powered offense based on precise timing that comes from spotting flaws in the game film and pitch-perfect technique.

Instead he was asked to produce a handful of big plays and clutch scoring drives when the team needed him most – often doing it in the moment.

Fewer timing routes. Less reliance on an internal clock set to unload the ball when the pocket got hot. Roethlisberger was not only allowed to extend plays and endure the punishment of the opposing defense, he was encouraged to play “backyard football”. Arians called plays, but some of the team’s most important plays throughout the season were whatever Roethlisberger and his receivers were going to create on the fly. He broke all the rules of pocket-passing and disregarded any consideration for his health behind an already questionable offensive line.

On the other side of the ball, Lebeau’s defense didn’t just allow Polamalu to freelance. He made the safety’s improvisational skill a crucial part of their overall setup. From snap-to-snap, Polamalu would either be jumping over the line of scrimmage to sack the quarterback, intercepting a pass in a position where he never should have been in the first place, or making a massive hit in the open field to prevent a big play.

Just like Roethlisberger’s (in)famous touchdown pass to Santonio Holmes Baltimore, Polamalu’s signature play came against the Ravens when he intercepted Joe Flacco for a game-sealing touchdown, sending the Steelers to the Super Bowl.

Even though Roethlisberger threw 15 interceptions to 17 touchdowns, the 2008 season was a success because the team embraced the a risk-reward philosophy that embraced the idea that they could make big mistakes if they were consistently aggressive.  This approach lowers overall consistency, but demonstrated that a team could ride the ebbs and flows to a championship.

When Roethlisberger extends plays he exposes himself to more hits, stresses his offensive line. and tires out his receivers. He also increases the potential for turnovers. When Polamalu freelances, he stresses Ryan Clark’s ability to cover for him. His aggressive approach to tackling also yields some big misses. Since the 2008 season, Polamalu has missed close to 40 tackles despite missing the bulk of two seasons.

Roethlisberger and Polamalu are players who live on their physical prowess, natural football ability, and most importantly, game-changing plays. Without those game-changing plays, they quickly lose their luster and both players have shortened their careers with their approach to the game. Roethlisberger is just 31, but has taken the punishment of a player who is 35-36. Polamalu has missed 22 regular season starts in the past four years.

Both will go down as great players for a franchise that has more great players in its history than an egg-timer has grains of sand. Both will have strong cases for the NFL Hall of Fame even if neither actually makes it. And both have signature moments that will forever be chronicled and replayed as the years go by.

Roethlisberger and Polamalu epitomize the positive side of reckless.

Footballguys: Reinventing My Dynasty Philosophy

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
How should be invest in quarterbacks for dynasty leagues? Was the 2012 class en exception to the rule? Photo by Football Schedule.
How should we invest in quarterbacks for dynasty leagues? Was the 2012 class en exception to the rule? Photo by Football Schedule.

I’m taking a hiatus from dynasty rankings to reassess my philosophies about managing teams in these leagues. This week, I’m examining quarterback data through the lens of something I call career windows. I define career windows as a three-year period in a player’s career because that span of time is known as the average career length of an NFL player.

When we draft players we believe will be viable fantasy contributors, I think we have the expectation that their careers will have more than three years of starter production. Many players have careers three to five times longer than the average.

I think we assess a player’s talent and situation every year, but I like the idea of have some longer perspective about players at each position. I want to know the lay of the land:

  • If and how long I can expect to get starter productivity from players at each position.
  • How does a player’s draft status fit into the scope of these career windows?
  • Are there any basic ideas I can draw from quarterback careers to help me create a basic philosophy for rankings and ranking adjustments in dynasty leagues?

What I hope to gain from these exercises is a set of basic ideas that help me understand when I’m going with or against the grain and to make those decisions with awareness of the dynamics at play.

Tiers Defined

First, I need to establish how I define the categories I use for the position when talking about its fantasy production. Most of you are familiar with how these terms are defined, but I still need to cover my bases. I’m using a 12-team league as the standard for these tiers.

  • Elite – In my view, these are the three most productive productive quarterbacks in a given season.
  • No.1 QB (or QB1) – The 12 most productive quarterbacks in a given season.
  • No. 2 QB (or QB2) – The 13th through 24th quarterbacks. First-tier reserves with potential for playing time on your roster.
  • Bench – The 25th through 36th quarterbacks. Depth for your roster – some developmental; others emergency only.
  • FA (Free Agents) – Quarterbacks lacking talent, situation, and/or opportunity to prouduce in the present.

These tiers are general estimates. There are some years where four quarterbacks post elite-level fantasy production and others where only one makes the cut. I’m not using fantasy points to drive tiers because the point values have changed – especially at the quarterback position – in just 20 years. Chase Stuart posted a graph of this change, but using VBD as a more refined data point.

Here’s what the 20-year change looks like through the lens of quarterback tiers (Read the rest at Footballguys.com)

Mirror Images: Maurice Jones-Drew/Ahmad Brooks

0 Comments read Matt Waldman

A game I’ve been playing in my head in recent months is to take an offensive player and find his mirror image on the opposite side of the line of scrimmage. For example, Joey Galloway and Darrell Green were stylistically mirror images of each other. Both had amazing speed that sometimes overshadowed their underrated displays of craft at their respective positions over the course of lengthy and productive careers. Now I’m putting it on the blog and having some of my friends play.

Editor’s Note

When Cian Fahey asked me to contribute a couple of paragraphs about cornerback Patrick Peterson for a collaborative piece he’s writing with the likes of Eric Stoner, Chris Burke, Allen Dumonjic, and Joe Goodberry, I pulled this idea of describing Peterson through the lens Dez Bryant – a player he’s trained to face – and typed it on the page. It got me thinking pairing offensive and defensive players as mirror images would be a fun way to pass the time as my fellow writers and I wait for the car trip of our football writing lives to get to its preseason destination.

I posed the idea to Fahey and Stoner and added Ryan Riddle and Jene Bramel to the mix. There are no grand designs here; we’re just passing time and I’m keeping it a free-form process. If you disagree with the takes, have a take of your own, or want to build on the idea, post a comment or email me (mattwaldmanrsp@gmail.com).

MirrorBrooksMJD

Mirror Images: Maurice Jones-Drew/Ahmad Brooks

By Cian Fahey,  Pre Snap Reads

I didn’t come to football the way most do. I grew up playing a plethora of other sports in a world where football wasn’t really football at all. In fact, it wasn’t even soccer, it was Gaelic Football. For a long time I didn’t even know the game existed, not least consider a career covering it. Yet, even though I missed out on the specific benefits that come with playing the sport from a young age, there were many lessons I learned from the other sports that translated into the next.

One of those lessons I learned as a 16-year-old. As a 15-year-old, I was fortunate enough to be part of an outstanding rugby team for 16 year olds and younger. From the first starter to the last backup, my team was littered with talented players and committed workers. We dominated our league in the same way the Patriots have dominated the regular season in recent years. However, once that season passed, our older players moved onto the under 18 team and I was elevated into a different role with six or seven others who were carrying over.

We swapped out our older, exceptional players for younger, nervous and inexperienced players. Despite having seven or eight players from the dominant team a year before, we dropped below mediocrity because of our weak spots.

After that season finished, I would forever become aware of the minor details. Minor details such as perceived role players, bench players, the impact of coaches or minor tactical adjustments. For that reason, when Matt approached me about this new series concept he had come up with, the first player that came to mind was Ahmad Brooks of the San Francisco 49ers.

Brooks is one of my favorite defensive players in the NFL. He is an outside linebacker on a defense that is often celebrated for its superstars at the linebacker position, but he is definitely not considered one of them. It was that overlooked aspect of Brooks that first linked him to Maurice Jones-Drew in my mind. Of course, being underrated isn’t enough to link two players for this series, but as the brain so often does, it was working much faster than my thoughts were.

Jones-Drew-Maurice

Pocket Hercules, as Jones-Drew is affectionately known, may be significantly shorter than Brooks, but their frames are not too dissimilar and both players play with a similar physicality that permeates throughout their game. I’ve often compared Jones-Drew to a bowling ball when he is running with the ball, because he initiates contact with defenders as much as they look to hit him. If Jones-Drew is a bowling ball, Brooks is a medicine ball. Slightly bigger, but just as effective when it lands on your toe.

Neither has long speed, in the sense that they won’t sprint with the best athletes at their positions for 40 yards, but Jones-Drew is enough of a home-run hitter to make defenses quiver while Brooks has been a very consistent pass-rusher since joining the 49ers. Neither explodes off the screen as much as an Adrian Peterson or Von Miller, but both do enough to get by, especially with their all-around skill-sets.

It’s those all-around skill-sets that really makes this comparison work for me.

Brooks’ game isn’t about rushing the passer, he is a pivotal piece for the 49ers because he can balance his intensity and physicality in when taking on blockers in the running game, while still being flexible and fluid enough to drop into coverage. Is he going to slide into defensive tackle and overcome double teams like Justin Smith? No, but if you leave a tight end or fullback on him your play design will likely fail. Is he going to cover Rob Gronkowski on an island? No, but he does more than enough to excel in that area and uphold the standards of the most intimidating front seven in the NFL.

I said previously that Jones-Drew and Brooks were linked first because they are both overlooked or underrated. Jones-Drew isn’t overshadowed by his teammates, but instead by backs on winning teams such as Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice and Arian Foster. He still gets credit for his powerful running style and the previously spoken about breakaway potential, but few ever point to his incredible play as a pass-protector or as a receiving back.

The running-back position is changing in the NFL. Feature backs can no longer be just big, powerful runners, they must have that all-around game so they can be a part of the passing attack. Jones-Drew should be the player who powerful backs look to moving forward. He has proven himself in the past as a more than respectable receiver coming out of the backfield, while since 2010, he has only allowed two sacks, three hits and two hurries on 189 pass blocks(courtesy of PFF).

For me, Jones-Drew is clearly the best pass-blocking running-back in the NFL, while it’s hard to think of a player who stops the run as well as Brooks without sacrificing in other areas. These may be little things, but little things are important. You may not notice it when you’re winning, but you definitely will when you start losing. At least, I did when I started losing.

Maurice Jones-Drew and Ahmad Brooks are mirror images of each other.

Cian Fahey has written for a number of sites, including The Guardian, Bleacher Report, and Irishcentral. He is also contributing to Footballguys.com and his blog Pre Snap Reads is a growing encyclopedia of content with an emphasis on defensive backs.