Category Matt Waldman

Mirror Images: Dez Bryant-Patrick Peterson (A New Series)

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Dez Bryant by A.J. Guel
Dez Bryant. Photo by A.J. Guel.

A game I’ve been playing in my head in recent months is to take an offensive player and find his mirror image on the opposite side of the line of scrimmage. For example, Joey Galloway and Darrell Green were stylistically mirror images of each other. Both had amazing speed that sometimes overshadowed their underrated displays of craft at their respective positions over the course of lengthy and productive careers. Now I’m putting it on the blog and having some of my friends play.

Intro

When Cian Fahey asked me to contribute a couple of paragraphs about cornerback Patrick Peterson for a collaborative piece he’s writing with the likes of Eric Stoner, Chris Burke, Allen Dumonjic, and Joe Goodberry, I pulled this idea of describing Peterson through the lens Dez Bryant – a player he’s trained to face – and typed it on the page. It got me thinking pairing offensive and defensive players as mirror images would be a fun way to pass the time as my fellow writers and I wait for the car trip of our football writing lives to get to its preseason destination.

I posed the idea to Fahey and Stoner and added Ryan Riddle and Jene Bramel to the mix. There are no grand designs here; we’re just passing time and I’m keeping it a free-form process. If you disagree with the takes, have a take of your own, or want to build on the idea, post a comment or email me (mattwaldmanrsp@gmail.com).

Patrick Peterson and Dez Bryant

Fear has a variety of forms. There’s the sense of dread that something is about to go wrong, but you can’t see it. Or, an immediate blinding terror where you’re watching events unfold as if you’re not in your body (I hope most of you haven’t experienced it).

And then there’s fear of a more seductive quality.  Imagine walking through a field and emerging from the woods is a panther – graceful, powerful, and transfixing. You know you’re five seconds from pissing your pants, but you’re compelled to stand there and admire one of nature’s perfect specimens from a rare (and dangerous) vantage point.

I think a panther emerging from the brush can’t be much different from seeing Peterson or Bryant emerging from the tunnel.

Both players have the grace of a large cat. They seem to possess and innate understanding of how to uncoil in the air and attack the ball. As ball carriers, they’re balls of muscle gliding across the turf. Glancing blows fly off them like sparks exploding off steel.

Put either one on the opposite end of the field of the punter and there’s a chance they make 11 guys look like elementary school kids losing at ‘Gator’.

Just as Bryant has the strength to open the ground game with his blocking, Peterson is a disruptive tackler at the line of scrimmage. The Cardinals cornerback can ruin a receiver’s timing on short timing routes the way the Cowboys receiver makes life miserable if he’s the first to get his hands on a defender.

Where they have to improve is the diagnostic aspects of the game. Their feel for the game is strong, but they’re learning that they cannot lean on this anymore and remain great at the NFL level. When they master the mental side of the game, they’re capable of dominant seasons.

Right now they just dominate games. It’s the difference between fear and terror.

McFadden-Murray Disciple: RB Charles Sims – The Film

0 Comments read Matt Waldman, Players, Running Back

SimsD5

Charles Sims is a disciple of the McFadden-Murray school of running back. Today I’m going to show you why.

If I were an unabashed opportunist, I’d claim that Darren McFadden’s disappointing career validated my pre-draft concerns about the Raiders back. But I’m not about being right for the wrong reasons. I still believe I missed on vital parts of McFadden’s game – aspects that make him a viable NFL talent. Recognizing the error of my ways helped me make a stronger assessment of Demarco Murray.

While not identical, McFadden and Murray in the same school of running back style. Soon-to-be-former Houston running back Charles Sims reminds me of these two runners. I have more to see before I can compare his athleticism to these two NFL starters, but it’s good enough for Sims to follow suit.

This 2012 contest against UAB is a good illustration of what makes Sims a good prospect as well as the lingering concerns that make staying in school a wise choice for 2013.

Sims’ Running Style

At 6’1″, 213 pounds, Sims is a taller back. It’s these dimensions and his gait that make him a similar type of runner as McFadden and Murray.

McFadden’s ability to bend runs at high speeds was something I downplayed in my pre-draft assessment. So were his suddenness and aggression in a gap scheme.  Although I think Murray is a good zone runner with skill to change direction with sharper cuts, Murray and McFadden both tend to “bend runs” rather than make sharp cuts.

There is also a similarity in their pad level although I think Murray has always been more consistent with his. After seeing McFadden illustrate his style could work, it helped me see that Murray’s gait would work just fine in the NFL. I didn’t worry about his balance the way some of my peers did.

When I watch Sims, I see a blend of both players. All three players are versatile, three-down options with  big-play ability. While they are nightmares for defenses if they get their pads square and a head of steam, their styles limit some of  their creativity at the line of scrimmage compared to runners like Maurice Jones Drew, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, or even Ahmad Bradshaw.

But that’s the beauty of the position; there is not just one successful style.

Speed and Acceleration

The game I’m using to illustrate Sims’ skill is a 29-touch 171-yard performance against UAB. Despite the impressive box score, I’m often more fond of seeing plays where the player in question encounters difficulty. It’s why I don’t shy away from poor box score performances if the touch-count is high enough.

Sims’ first carry is a good example of  the tough sledding he had early in the contest: A two-yard gain from an uptempo play on 2nd and 3 with 12:34 in the first quarter. Houston runs an outside zone to the right and the blocking scheme fails.

SimsA1

The backside blocks fail to stop the pursuit and the right tackle is not fast enough to contain the edge defender. As Sims reaches the right hash, it becomes a footrace with the edge defender penetrating two yards into the backfield untouched. Because of the cornerback and linebacker free behind the edge defender, there’s no room for a cutback.

SimsA2

There are five defenders in this picture with an angle on Sims and only one lineman on his feet. Even that lineman has been beat. Yet Sims still manages to outrun the defensive end , turn the corner, and gain two yards.

SimsA3

SimsA4

This play should have been a loss if not for Sims’ speed, which earns the Cougars a manageable 3rd-and-one.

Like McFadden and Murray, Sims is a dangerous player in space because of his acceleration and it doesn’t take much green grass for him to turn on the turbo boosters. Here is an eight-yard gain on a 2nd-and-eight swing-screen from a 3×1 receiver, 10 personnel shotgun with 6:30 in the first half.

SimsB1

Sims flanks the trips side of the QB. The play is a quick-developing outside screen pass with two wide receivers blocking in the flat as the middle trips receiver motions across the formation as misdirection to fool the defense into taking  steps away from the actual flow of the play.

SimsB2

Sims swings to the flat, catches the ball over his  inside shoulder with his hands and does a good job of tucking under his outside arm as he makes a  fast, down-hill cut about three yards behind the line of scrimmage.

SimsB3

Sims accelerates well and splits the defensive back in the slot getting ahead of the defensive end working down the line of scrimmage. These are two strong angles by defenders and the Cougars runner manages to beat them both.

SimsB4

Although the end wraps Sims from behind, the burst is good enough for the back to earn eight yards and the first down.

Sims’ acceleration can catch opponents off guard. This 36-yard streak up the right sideline with 4:35 in the half is a great example. The play is a 2nd-and-10 pass at the UAB 41 with Sims beginning the play flanking the quarterback to the opposite side of a quads set.

SimsC1

Sims motions from the backfield to the right side where he is the single receiver and draws a cornerback playing single coverage. At the snap, Sims demonstrates good footwork to dip inside-out and earns strong separation on the corner by the time he’s 15 yards down field.

SimsC2

There’s even a nice use of his hands to swipe past the corner to get outside without a jam.

simsC3

SimsC4

SimsC5

The runner makes the grab at the 15, turning back to the football and waiting on it just long enough to give the defender time to recover. The beaten corner wraps Sims at the 10 and drags the runner to the ground inside the 5. A better throw and this is an easy touchdown.

Good Ball Security Form, But Execution Needs Improvement

Sims typically carries the ball high and tight, but he’s experiencing lapses of concentration when it comes to his ball security at various stages of runs. Here is a 2nd-and-10 run from the Houston 25 with 6:20 in the first quarter. The play begins in a 3×1 receiver, 10 personnel pistol versus two safeties deep and a four-man front.

SimsD1

This is an inside zone play with Sims taking the ball towards the left guard and center who are double-teaming the left defensive tackle. Sims takes a strong approach towards the outside shoulder of the left guard. As he reaches the left hash he cuts back to the inside shoulder of the center.

SimsD2

This press and cut forces the weak side linebacker to move a step wider of the left guard and sets up the block. Sims then hits the crease inside the center at the line of scrimmage, bursts up the middle, and earns five yards.

SimsD3

This weak side linebacker spins away from the guard and pursues Sims as the Houston runner dips outside the oncoming safety six yards past the line of scrimmage. The defender reaches Sims a yard later, wraps the runner high, and spins the back to the ground as the backside pursuit punches the ball free.

SimsD4

Sims initially has the ball high to his chest, but it’s never tight enough to his body. The spin and contact exacerbates the looseness of his elbow from his body. Upon contact from the defender, the ball slips free and turns a nine-yard gain into a turnover.

SimsD5

SimsD6

While Sims’ ball security is decent for much of the run, his pad level is high enough for the linebacker to come backside and get his arm into the runner’s chest. Lower pad level prevents this type of exposure to the ball.

We’ll see instances where Sims’ pad level is lower when he finishes runs, but his height is a  critical factor with his lapses with ball security. There are plays where Sims demonstrates a more conscious effort to lower his pads, but his overall running style is unlikely to change. It means the best ways for him to improve his ball security will be to get stronger and maintain concentration on squeezing the ball throughout the play.

Two touches later – a 2nd and 5 with 4:16 in the first quarter – Sims almost loses the ball again at the UAB 7.   It was a common occurrence for the defense to earn penetration into the backfield early in this game and disrupt the flow of the running game. On this play, the middle linebacker and defensive end converge on Sims a yard deep in the backfield.

SimsE1

I like that Sims hits the crease hard and drags the end a yard after bouncing off the contact of the linebacker. He does a good job of keeping his feet moving and even demonstrates some body lean. However, the UAB defender rips at the ball and Sims has to make a juggling attempt to secure it with his left arm while falling to the ground.

The pad level is again an issue. The blue arrow is Sim’s actual pad level, but the ideal pad level is closer to the orange arrow. It’s clear to see how much Sims exposes the ball with his pads high. As he approaches the defense his pad level never changes.

SimsE2

SimsE3

Setting Up Defenders

I like that Sims adjusts to what defenders are doing in the game. UAB was successful getting early penetration into the backfield and converging on Sims for minimal gains. The Houston running back does a good job of turning this advantage against his opponents on a nine-yard gain on a 1st and 10 run with 5:31 in the half.

SimsF1

He did an excellent job pressing to the left side to bait he penetration up the middle and then spin inside the defender to reach the line of scrimmage.

SimsF2

SimsF3

The spin and burst from Sims opens a strong lane and I especially like the pad level that Sims display as he’s midway through the crease.

SimsF4

Note the pad level below. This is what Sims has to demonstrate earlier in runs.

simsF5

Sims’ pads don’t have to be this low at the beginning his runs, but this play is an illustration that his pad level issues area about two things: a high running style due his height and the lack of bend in his hips and knee and inconsistency of effort to correct it.  Sims’s pad level can get away from him early in runs if he doesn’t make a conscious effort early in the play.

Promising Pass Protector

Here is an excellent cut block on a corner blitz from the left side of the formation on 2nd and 10 with 5:46 in the half.

SimsG1

Sims crosses the formation from a 2×2 receiver, 10 personnel shotgun set and takes out the slot corner with an excellent block across the body of the cornerback.

SimsG2

The result is an 11-yard gain to the right flat for a first down . Note the way Sims works across the body of the defender and cuts high enough at the waist to force the defender to crumple to the ground at the point of the collision.

SimsG3

Run Bender With Cutting Ability

On the following play, Sims gains six yards on 3rd-and-three from the UAB 24 with 12:55 in the half from a 30 personnel 1×1 receiver pistol with a diamond look. They motion the left fullback to the right and then run a play where Sims follows the two lead blockers right and cuts back to the left on this outside zone play.

SimsH1

Sims does a nice job spotting the cutback lane, planting and changing direction with burst to beat the backside defenders through the crease to reach the line of scrimmage.

SimsH2

The burst from this cut is also impressive. Check out the space he generates 3-4 steps after the cut. Three defenders that were ahead of Sims are now in the rear view mirror.

SimsG4

Sims runs through a wrap to his leg a couple of yards down field and dips further to the backside to avoid the safety just enough to run through a wrap to his leg at the first down marker. He then drags two defenders hitting him from behind for another three yards. When he gets downhill he’s tough to tackle.

If Sims makes the unlikely decision to enter the 2013 NFL Supplemental Draft, I think he is worth a second or third-round pick. Depending on the team fit, he’d fall in a tier that separates Johnathan Franklin and Montee Ball. Perhaps even with Mike Gillislee if the fit isn’t optimal.

Since Sims is likely to transfer to a college program, I think the experience could increase his stock, which should increase his odds to contribute early in the NFL. If Sims remains a college athlete, keep an eye on his speed – both the long sprints and the short area burst. It’s what I’ll be watching closely to determine where he fits on the McFadden-Murray spectrum.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

 

RSO Team: Fantasy Throwdown’s Mike MacGregor

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When Morris could conceivably be your No.3 or No.4 RB by year's end, you're deep at the position - perhaps too deep in this league (if there is such a thing. Photo by Keith Allison.
When Morris could conceivably be your No.3 or No.4 RB by year’s end, you’re deep at the position – perhaps too deep in this league (if there is such a thing. Photo by Keith Allison.
Mike and I (to some extent) run Fantasy Throwdown, a one-on-one, flexible draft, weekly fantasy game that is intuitive, addictive, and free to play. Mike provided a complete writeup of his RSO team . I’ve added a bit from the peanut gallery. If you go to www.realitysportsonline.com and use the promotion code RSP20%OFF, you’ll earn a 20 percent discount. You can join a league for $9.99 as an individual or form a league with your friends.

Pre-draft strategy

First off, I had a conflict the night of the auction and had to hand the reigns over to RSO’s “men behind the madness”, Stephen and Matt, to handle my auction for the first 1-2 hours until I could get online. This was of course going to be the most crucial time in the auction when the highest ranked and highest paid players are bid on. I was bummed to miss it, but thankfully, I was in good hands with the guys who have the most RSO experience.

I started my auction prep by estimating the dollar values for all players. This started as simply finding average auction values (AAV) from the prior year, attaching the QB1 AAV to my #1 ranked QB this year, QB2 AAV to #2 ranked QB, RB1 AAV to my #1 ranked RB, etc., etc., and grossing up all values for the cap in this league. Then I made manual adjustments under the impression that most of the owners in this league will bid more aggressively on stud players, and save less for middle of the road and lower ranked players (creating greater separation from top to bottom than the AAV indicated).

The total dollars attributed to all players in my estimated draftable player pool had to be roughly equivalent to sum of available cap dollars for all teams, after deducting rookie contracts, about $10 million per team left over for in-season acquisitions and a minimum contract value for a pair of kickers and defense. I figured I had $101 million to spend on 21 roster spots, or an average of $4.8 million per player.

At this point with my player rankings and estimated dollar amounts, I highlighted players I would be willing to drop a 4-year or 3-year deal on, plus players I had no interest in acquiring. Not that the don’t acquire players are bad players, but just that I felt the risk and expected cost would be higher than I was willing to pay. Examples of players that made this list included Rob Gronkowski, Arian Foster, Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, Percy Harvin, Tony Romo and Matt Stafford.

I discussed with Stephen there were certain RB I’d be willing to drop a multi-year deal on, but preferably we want to attach our 4-year and 3-year deals primarily to the WR and QB positions. I made a priority list of 13 players to give a 4-year contract to, feeling that my approach to the RSO auction would be (a) decide how many years you want to give this player, and (b) see how the bidding goes at that length of contract.

One of only a half-dozen guys I could unequivocally see as an upgrade to Alfred Morris Photo by Mike Pettigano.
Trent Richardson – One of only a half-dozen guys I could unequivocally see as an upgrade to Alfred Morris Photo by Mike Pettigano.

Here is the 4-year list:

  1. Aaron Rodgers
  2. Andrew Luck
  3. A.J. Green
  4. Trent Richardson
  5. Aaron Hernandez
  6. Jimmy Graham
  7. Julio Jones
  8. Calvin Johnson
  9. Russell Wilson
  10. Matt Ryan
  11. Randall Cobb
  12. David Wilson
  13. Doug Martin
And then I made a similar 3-year priority list:
  1. Anyone left on 4-year list
  2. Peyton Manning
  3. Adrian Peterson
  4. Victor Cruz
  5. Pierre Garcon
  6. Demaryius Thomas
  7. Larry Fitzgerald
  8. Cheaper guys (assuming already have a lot of $ tied up in 4-year/3-year deals)
  9. Anyone else highlighted on rankings tab

And from there I pretty much left it to Stephen and Matt, knowing I would be logging on in a frenzy in the middle of the auction in catch-up mode.

MacGregor’s Team
Quarterback Years $ Running Back Years $ Wide Receiver Years $
Tom Brady (NE) 3  $40.0 Trent Richardson (CLE) 4 $97.0 Vincent Jackson (TB) 2 $29.5
Andy Dalton (CIN) R 1  $2.0 Alfred Morris (WAS) 3 $47.0 Brian Hartline (MIA) 1 $1.5
Christian Ponder (MIN) R 2  $2.0 Le’Veon Bell (PIT) R 3 R Jeremy Kerley (NYJ) R 1 $1.5
Ryan Nassib (NYG) R 3  R Lamar Miller (MIA) R 2 $25.0 Nate Washington (TEN) R 1 $1.5
Matt Cassel (MIN) R 1  $0.5 Ray Graham (HOU) R 3 R Brandon Gibson (MIA) R 1 $0.5
Kerwynn Williams (IND) R 3 R Andre Roberts (ARI) 1 $0.5
Roy Helu (WAS) R 1 $0.5 Kenny Stills (NO) R 3 R
Dion Lewis (CLE) R 1 $0.5 Donald Jones (NE) R 1 $0.5
David Nelson (CLE) R 1 $0.5
Mike Thomas (DET) R 1 $0.5
Tight End Years $ Kicker Years $ Defense Years $
Tony Gonzalez (ATL) 1 $13.0 Blair Walsh (MIN) 1 $0.5 Arizona 1 $0.5
Brent Celek (PHI) R 1 $1.0 Justin Tucker (BAL) R 1 $0.5 Carolina 1 $0.5
Brandon Myers (NYG) 1 $2.0

How did the auction unfold for you

When I got logged into the auction, I was flush at RB and the guys got a great deal on Tom Brady relative to some other QB contracts. Brady is on a 3-year deal for $40 million (2013 salary of $12.5 million). I had an estimated bid for Brady at $18 million for 2013. Comparing to some of the other QB contracts (Kaepernick $41 million for 2 years; Newton $49 for 3; Rodgers $62 for 3, Luck north of $100 for 4), I was in good shape with this deal.

Can’t complain at all about the quality of the RB on the roster: Trent Richardson, Alfred Morris, Lamar Miller plus Le’Veon Bell from the rookie draft. My concern is too many dollars and, more importantly, too many years tied up at the RB position, which has the most annual turnover. Richardson has a 4-year, Morris a 3-year and Miller a 2-year. I am a believer in Morris – honestly, I wouldn’t have been willing to give him a 3-year otherwise – but there is still something unsettling about a 3-year deal on a Mike Shanahan RB, especially when he’s already used one of this good years.

I was definitely in catch-up mode when I got logged in, with quality players getting nominated one after the other. I can’t remember the last draft I was in where I didn’t have a running list of players crossed off my rankings, so I needed to take a good look through the available player lists to see how deep the remaining positions were, especially WR. To buy time, I added some kickers and defense to my queue, and I got them at a minimum contract.

WR were definitely getting thin for my needs having to fill 3-4 starter spots. I aggressively went after Vincent Jackson and Tony Gonzalez became a must-have on a one-year deal. I estimated his value at $17 million and got him for $13. I should have gone even more aggressive at WR but got a little gun shy with still many roster spots to fill. With WR bottoming out and some quality TE still available, I figured I would spend for better backups there who would likely man my flex starter spot, while taking a shotgun approach to the WR position trying to tag unheralded guys in situations with upside.

I stayed pretty close to my target of saving $10 million for in-season, but the way the auction unfolded, I should have spent more of that considering most guys did not save that much, and I can’t necessarily win any player I like off waivers given one team abandoned the auction at midnight and has $60 million in available cap space. A much better WR2 and this team would feel a lot better. As it stands, a RB for WR trade could be in the works either before the season starts, or once the NFL gets underway, but in that case we’ll need each of our RB to start the season strong.

Waldman’s Thoughts

I think the running back depth will work out in MacGregor’s favor because he will have great trade bait – especially if Andy Dalton plays well enough to sneak into the low-end of the top-10 and he can dangle a player like Tom Brady. My belief is that wide receivers are the easiest players to acquire. If MacGregor has the hardest position to get a quality player and winds up with four of them on his roster, he’ll be able to trade one of them easily for a good starter at his position of need. He might also get by with a tight end as a flex-option this year. Andre Roberts and Jeremy Kerley aren’t players you want as your No.2 and No.2 receivers at the beginning of the year, but they have the talent to provide sustainable production.

Best Deals (Millions in years)
If Brady truly is "bad WR-proof" he'll be a fine value even with MacGregor's long-term deal. Photo by Jeffrey Beall.
If Brady truly is “bad WR-proof” he’ll be a fine value even with MacGregor’s long-term deal. Photo by Jeffrey Beall.
  • Tom Brady: $40 for 3
  •  Tony Gonzalez: $13 for 1 – Compared to the 2013 salary for Jimmy Graham ($26) and Gronkowski ($18), happy to get Gonzo who looked absolutely stellar last season. He’s an ageless wonder.
  •  Trent Richardson: $97 for 4 – If you’re going to give a 4-year deal to a RB, this is the guy to give it to, and at a 2013 salary of only $21 he’s a great deal relative to what other top RB are being paid this season.
  •  Andy Dalton: $2 for 1 – I don’t love Andy Dalton for fantasy, but given the talent they’ve surrounded him with and his age I was shocked to land him as my backup for a mere $2.
Worst (Millions in years)
  • Christian Ponder: $2 for 2 – Did I really put a 2-year deal on Ponder? Geez, don’t remember that. Think I waited too long to use my last 2-year deal. At least a small dead cap hit next year if Ponder craps out.
  •  Alfred Morris: 47 for 3
  • Lamar Miller: $25 for 2 – I don’t mind either (Morris or Miller) deal individually, but I’d rather have the money or contract of one of these guys invested in any one of a bunch of wide receivers instead.
Good deals for other owners
  • (Matt Waldman) Cecil Shorts: $18.5 for 4 – I had to step away from the computer but definitely would have driven the price up on Shorts, although perhaps couldn’t compete with a 4-year deal.
  •  (Rivers McCown) Rueben Randle: $2.5 for 1 – Cheap for a young high upside player. Surprised no one dropped a multi-year deal on Randle at this price. Michael Floyd got a 4-year deal, Kendall Wright signed a 2-year.
  •  (Ryan McDowell) Josh Gordon: $19 for 3 – Like this kid and consider this a good deal over three years. We’ll see how the Browns’ QB play pans out.
Questionable deals for owners (IMHO)
According to MacGregor, Jim Day has great QB depth, but at a great cost photo by Football Schedule.
According to MacGregor, Jim Day has great QB depth, but at a great cost photo by Football Schedule.
  • (Lance Zierlein) Chris Ivory: $15.5 for 3 – Ivory screams stop-gap to me. Can’t imagine him paying off in Year 3 and I wouldn’t even feel comfortable with a 2-year deal.
  •  (Jim Day) Peyton Manning, $31.5 for 2 + Russell Wilson, $63.5 for 4 – A lot tied up in the QB position. Actually, really like the Manning contract, but can’t justify tying up this much cap for one starter spot. Some plans for wheeling and dealing perhaps, but Jim has no cap room, so he’s in a bad negotiating position.
  •  (Fontaine) Jordan Cameron: $5 for 1 – A big premium amongst of sea of TE with similar expectations. If he hits, great, but think the hype train got a hold of this bidding. On the plus side, Bryan landed Antonio Gates for a mere $1. Cheap bet for a bounce back from the former stud TE.

Fave team other than mine

I’m split between Tefertiller (he needs an RG3 recovery and a 2nd RB) and Fontaine (He believes in Pead, but I don’t really and he needs Bradshaw to sign and play big role). I love the starting wide receivers for each of these teams. I may have WR envy.

Impressions of Reality Sports Online

I Really like RSO. The website is clean and the overall auction runs well. I might not want to play in more than one RSO league, given the complexity and time involved. The auction is going to be long and there isn’t a way around that.  If you are doing a league like this, you want it to be fairly deep. (Editor’s note: As the commissioner of this league, I can tell you that if you draft 20 spots and keep the nomination and bid times at a minimum, you can finish in 3-4 hours, tops and if you adjust the number of multi-year contracts each team can award, you don’t need a deep league – it’s a flexible setup).

Heck, actually, I do already play in another dynasty with very similar contracts and rules. We use a combination of ESPN (for their auction software), MFL (to run the league in-season) and spreadsheet to track the contracts all year. Given that, I can see why these guys put together this website! [Last editor’s note: See what I’m talking about . . . ]

Short-term / Long-term View of Team

I love my team for this season. I would love to lobby for RB to be included in the flex position, but I know that is a non-starter with the Commish. Going to pray my RB stay healthy and productive (at least 3 of the 4) for the bulk of their contracts and then long-term should be in good shape. How rookies pan out will ultimately create separation between the top teams and bottom teams in the league, because they will be on cheap contracts. Liked my initial pick of Bell, but didn’t love the rest of my rookie draft.

Remember, if you go to www.realitysportsonline.com and use the promotion code RSP20%OFF, you’ll earn a 20 percent discount. You can join a league for $9.99 as an individual or form a league with your friends.

DLF Writer Tim Stafford’s RSO Team

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Marshawn Lynch. Photo by Matt McGhee.
When you get Marshawn Lynch as one of two RBs that can be your RB1 on a keeper league, you did pretty well. Tim Stafford gets credit for doing so. Photo by Matt McGhee.

Tim Stafford (@dynastytim) is a writer at Dynasty League Football. He directs the forums at DLF and co-hosts the site’s podcast with Jarrett Behar. DLF is a quality site because of people like Stafford, Behar, and Ryan McDowell. Stafford and McDowell participated in the Reality Sports Online Auction Draft last weekend. I’m giving you my take of his team along with his own assessment.

First, here’s what Stafford had to say about his RSO experience:

I was very impressed by the RSO platform.  I know some people had some issues with the player list [Matt’s note: there were some bugs to work out when trying to nominate a player if you didn’t preset the nomination], but running it on Windows 7 with Chrome was flawless.  My favorite form of fantasy football is salary cap and this takes it to the next level.  Bidding simultaneously on the contract amount and length is very slick.  There was some strategy to when you burned your three and four-year contracts.  I’d easily recommend RSO to anyone who is considering starting a salary cap league.

I think Tim is dead-on. If there’s time, I’m going to set up an IDP league with this format. I probably won’t cover it here, but I enjoyed this format too much to just be in one league with it. If you go to www.realitysportsonline.com and use the promotion code RSP20%OFF, you’ll earn a 20 percent discount. You can join a league for $9.99 as an individual or form a league with your friends.

Stafford’s Squad 

Quarterback Yrs $ Running Back Yrs $ Wide Receiver Yrs $
Tony Romo 3 28.5 Marshawn Lynch 2 40.5 Randall Cobb 4 73.5
Matt Schaub 1 2.5 C.J. Spiller 3 75.0 Wes Welker 2 21.0
Tim Tebow 1 0.5 Mike Goodson 1 0.5 Sidney Rice 2 7.5
      Evan Royster 1 0.1 Greg Little 1 2.5
      Taiwan Jones 1 0.5 Santonio Holmes 1 4.0
      Montee Ball 3 R Ryan Broyles 1 3.5
      Mike Gillislee 3 R Leonard Hankerson 1 4.0
      Denard Robinson 3 R Dexter McCluster 1 0.5
      Kenjon Barner 3 R Andrew Hawkins 1 0.5
            Lestar Jean 1 0.5
            Damian Williams 1 0.5
            Quinton Patton 3 R

I think Stafford used his multi-year deals well. Lynch and Spiller and 2 and 3-year deals are sensible windows of time to tie up a running back. Anything more than three years could be too ambitious for the NFL. Both players are capable of top-five production and I think it’s realistic to expect both runners to have RB1 seasons in 2013. Combine this running back duo with a solid QB1 like Tony Romo – another good choice to give a three-year deal – and a four-year deal to Randall Cobb, and I think these four acquisitions were money well-spent. These four players – if healthy – give Stafford a competitive team.

The two-year, $21 million deal to Welker is a probably a good deal. There is the element of a gamble in the sense of a new situation and how much production will the veteran really have with Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker also in the Broncos lineup, but we’ve seen Peyton Manning deliver 1000-yard seasons to three receivers multiple times in the quarterback’s career. I’d be shocked if Welker doesn’t deliver two years of at least 65-70 receptions – and probably one of them will be a season of 80-90 catches.

A two-year deal for Sidney Rice could also be criticized as “iffy,” but at $7.5 million total I would categorize any flak that Stafford gets as nitpicking. Because we get to franchise one player each year, it’s the one-year deals that teams chose to make that are most fascinating to me.

Ryan Broyles is a good example on Stafford’s team. I love what Broyles brings to the table as a route runner with big-play ability. However, his 2013 season won’t begin until November. I can see Stafford franchising Broyles if the Detroit receiver flashes what he did briefly from his first return from an ACL injury in November of 2012. Still, the amount of money to invest in a franchise tag on a receiver with a handful of games could be a tough call.

Still, I like upside picks on one-year deals and I think Stafford did well to take players like Leonard Hankerson, Greg Little, Mike Goodson, Dexter McCluster, and Santonio Holmes, who all have the talent to outperform current expectations and be considerations for that one franchise offer in 2014.

Paired with Lynch, Spiller gives Stafford a sound 1-2 punch for his starting lineup. Photo by Matt Britt
Paired with Lynch, Spiller gives Stafford a sound 1-2 punch for his starting lineup. Photo by Matt Britt

Here’s what Stafford had to say about some of these players:

I was happy to start off by winning Spiller and Lynch – especially Lynch – $40.5 million over two years.  Compare that to Charles who went off right before Lynch at $60.5 million over two years.  I view Lynch as a solid RB1 for the next several years.  Paired with Spiller, I think I have a solid one two punch. 

Since I also have Ball from the rookie draft, I felt I was fairly set at RB in a league where you start two.  I’m also hopeful about my rookie RBs – Ball and Gillislee.  If Gillislee somehow beats out Lamar Miller I’ll be able to trade one of them for a nice WR upgrade.< /p>

This allowed me to focus my attention and money elsewhere.  I got a little nervous after I took Romo as my third player – this league requires a lot of starting WRs.  I forced it a bit on Cobb and then went in to WR by committee mode taking a total of 12.  I think grabbing Welker was a decent move in an SC league.  He’s someone I’d avoid in traditional dynasty but short-term rentals are fine in this format. 

I ended up overpaying for a couple of WRs later in the auction. I had money left and the pool was thinning.  Broyles at $3.5 for one year isn’t worth it, nor is Hankerson at $4 million.  But as I mentioned above I needed bodies. 

I think Gillislee is a nice runner who plays with the type of intensity one seeks from an NFL starter. I think the drafting of Gillislee is (not intentionally as I’m stating it) a message to Lamar Miller to keep working and notice to Daniel Thomas that he hopefully was working hard to prepare for a fight for his spot on the depth chart in 2013.

Miller makes the Broncos a good pick as a team defense. Photo by Jeffery Beall.
Miller makes the Broncos a good pick as a team defense. Photo by Jeffery Beall.
Tight End Yrs $ Kicker Yrs $ Defense Yrs $
Owen Daniels 1 4.0 Jay Feely 1 0.5 Denver 1 0.5
Brandon Pettigrew 1 0.5       Dallas 1 0.5
James Casey 1 1.0            

I think Stafford went the safe route on tight ends. Daniels has top-five upside, but just barely. However, he’s as close to a lock as a top-10 tight end in fantasy leagues as one can get. Pettigrew is a disappointing fantasy player based on his potential. I’m not saying he should be a an elite tight end, but I think his physical skills and this Detroit offense should translate to production that is similar to Daniels’ upside rather than sitting outside the top-10 in healthy years.

If you’ve read my blog for any length of time then you know I’m a fan of James Casey’s potential. The beginning of the Chip Kelly era in Philly is a development I’m eager to see. The reason Kelly has Casey, Brent Celek, Clay Harbor, and Zach Ertz is that this up-tempo offense uses multiple tight ends to foil his opponents’ attempts at gap control.

This doesn’t always translate into great receiving production at the position, but there may be enough opportunities for one player in this group to emerge as a fantasy option. I’m not counting on Casey to be the one, but if injury strikes to the depth chart then Casey has upside. I’m not sure I would have picked him in a league like this because unless it’s clear he’ll be the man to own before the first week of the season, he’ll most likely present diminishing returns.

Denver’s defense is a nice option for the minimum price. The league awards points for sacks, turnovers, and points score and Denver’s unit should be in a good position to play aggressor most weeks – especially in an AFC West that is now a weak division on paper.

Stafford didn’t have any comments about this part of his roster, but he did talk about other deals that teams made in the auction that I think are worth mentioning. Amounts mentioned are in increments of millions

Good Deals

  • Ryan McDowell – Josh Gordon ($19 over 3):  Gordon could become a high end WR2.  If that happens this was a steal.
  • Mike MacGregor -Tom  Brady ($40 over 3): This was a steal and happened because seven or eight teams already had QBs at this point and let it happen.  We probably should have price enforced a bit here.  But that’s a risky proposition.
  • Sigmund Bloom – Martellus Bennett ($0.5 over 1):  Great player to get early in the auction at league minimum.  Not sure how he pulled this one on us.
  • Jeff Tefertiller – Brandon Marshall ($60 over 4): Terrific value.  Marshall at about 10% of his cap, yes sir.

Deals Stafford Didn’t Like

  • Lance Zierlein – Colin Kaepernick ($41 over 2):  This seemed rather pricey to me.  Compare this to Drew Brees at ($30 over 2).
  • Ryan McDowell – Andrew Luck ($103 over 4): Same thing. This is way too rich for my blood.  This is a bet that Luck will be a top-5 QB in 2013 and beyond.  Maybe/maybe not.
  • Rivers McCown – Josh Freeman ($3.5 over 1):  Not really much money of course, but Freeman isn’t my cup of tea.  If I’m going to draft a back-up QB I’d like to get one with either some upside (i.e. Locker/Tannehill) or one that is the surefire starter (i.e. Schaub).

Personally, I don’t see much wrong with Freeman. I doubt Mike Glennon is a threat to Freeman this year. I agree that Kaepernick and Luck earned higher contracts than I would have paid, but I’m a Luck fan so if I were to go bold with a passer I’d pay that premium on the Colts quarterback. McDowells also stole Gordon. I nominated Gordon as the first player off the board in the auction. I wish I hadn’t.

McDowell’s team was Stafford’s favorite:

His projected starting lineup is Luck, CJ2K/Mendy, Nicks/Gordon/James Jones/Blackmon, Housler.  He’ll have to shuck and jive until Blackmon returns and he needs Housler to break out, but this is potentially a very nice team for the long haul.  He also has Gio Bernard in the wings.  And he has good options to replace Blackmon short-term.

More analysis of this draft coming in the next 4-6 weeks. Remember, if you go to www.realitysportsonline.com and use the promotion code RSP20%OFF, you’ll earn a 20 percent discount. You can join a league for $9.99 as an individual or form a league with your friends.

RSO Writers League: Site Review and My Draft

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
I'd start my fantasy season with Calvin Johnson, wouldn't you? Photo by Mike Morbeck.
Start your fantasy season with Calvin Johnson? How about signing him to a two-year deal? Even better. Find out where you can do it online and no Excel needed.  Photo by Mike Morbeck.

This weekend I donned the commissioner hat of a fantasy league for the first time in six years. This is no run-of-the-mill league. Not only are the owners an extraordinary group of fantasy writers, but Reality Sports Online’s style of game and draft application is taking fantasy football in a direction I want to go.

Sigmund Bloom equated the process to an expedition to undiscovered territory. Thanks to your’s truly, who opted to have each team sign 25 players in the free agent auction it felt like a never-ending quest. Fortunately, there were no fatalities and most of our adventurers made it to the end. The overwhelming sentiment was that they relished the journey.

I believe if you’re the type of fantasy owner who reads my work or the work of guys in the league below, you’ll relish what RSO has to offer. Today, I’m covering the start-up process of this league, providing my takes on each team, and reviewing the RSO site and application.

In subsequent posts, I’m going to profile the rest of the teams.

Taking the Plunge with Reality Sports Online’s Front Office Format (Salary Cap-Keeper-Dynasty -Contract-Auction Format)

Have you ever learned a skill that appears more daunting than it actually is? My wife has a good example – installing tile. She’s been tiling kitchens and bathrooms for years – it was even a part of what she did when she owned her own business.

At first, the idea of getting these individual pieces on a wall at the appropriate level and coordination of color seemed difficult to her when thinking about how few mistakes one can make during this process. But a little front-end preparation revealed it was a lot easier than she imagined.

RSO’s format can have that kind of feel at first and the learning curve seems a lot steeper than it really is. Once you spend a few minutes learning the rules and trying out the draft room, you realize the process is not only intuitive, but it might be one of the most promising ways to run a league that I have seen yet.

To use a more dramatic example of RSO’s learning curve, I immediately thought of Bud (played by Ed Harris) from the movie The Abyss when he dons a tricked-out deep-sea diving helmet that requires him to breathe liquid:

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b338ZWuYsJ0?rel=0&w=560&h=315]

There’s an initial fear factor, but then it’s a lot more natural than you’d expect. The reason is many of you hardcore owners are doing contract or keeper leagues now, but spending time keeping up with your own spreadsheets and calculations. RSO is among the first I’ve seen that are doing it for you.

There are a few kinks to work out to make the RSO platform a little more flexible when it comes to setting up pre-draft lists and adding players to a nomination queue, but I have tried numerous auction sites over the years and the application on the whole is intuitive, smooth, and had no breakdowns. Try a league at RSO and use the promotion code RSP20%OFF to earn a 20 percent discount.

RSO won the FSTA’s 2012 Rookie of the Year Award and was a Finalist for the Most Innovative Product Award. I get the vibe that these guys are working hard to make the product the best it can be and they appear open and responsive to feedback.

The Basics

RSO is a league management fantasy football website runs keeper leagues that operate with contract values that mimic the NFL’s system. The site owners are former NFL employees – one of them helped run a team’s cap. I think I can boil down the details to keep it simple:

  • Each team is given approximately $123 million in cap space (the number moves each year with the NFL cap).
  • Leagues can be a wide variety of sizes: Offense w/team defense or IDP.
  • Every year there is a rookie draft (serpentine) and free agent auction draft that is completed in one sitting.*
  • There are three basic contract types:
    • A standard, three-year or four-year deal for your rookie draft picks based on the draft order (contract settings determined by commissioner).
    • A standard, one-year deal as determined by the winning bid in a free agent auction.
    • Three types of multi-year contracts that your league can determine how many each team can offer:
      • Four-year
      • Three-year
      • Two-year
  • The site manages trades and free agency according to the cap and it’s all automated.

The multi-year contracts and the auction is what seems harder than it really is. The auction room tracks how much cap room you have and what it’s going to cost you to win a player. One you use all your multi-year deals, the site only allows you to bid with one-year deals. It’s also encouraged that you save $5-$10 million of your $123 million for drop/adds.

Once you see how it all flows, it’s really just a facet of what makes RSO’s league format something I want to try again and again.

*We got the benefit of doing a slow rookie draft due to the schedules of our writers but after using the application, we could have easily done everything in one night if we had 20-man rosters and shorter nomination and bid times.
Pick rookies with a snake draft, sign the rest like the NFL - free agency at Reality Sports Online. Photo by John Martinez-Paviliga
Pick rookies with a snake draft, sign the rest like the NFL – free agency at Reality Sports Online. Photo by John Martinez-Paviliga

Contract/Auction Strategy

A good example of this contract strategy in play is how an owner chooses to award its multi-year deals. Some owners will regard a stud like Calvin Johnson as player they will try to sign with a four-year deal. This makes sense: the longer the deal, the less money paid per year and the easier it is on your cap room if Johnson continues to have the same quality career for the next four years.

The risk is if Johnson gets hurt or under performs. Then you’re in a deal that’s costing you money over the next four years and you’ll still have some of this money on your books during that time even if you cut Johnson. All of this is calculated for you on the site, so it’s not something you have to dwell on until it’s time to start thinking about roster moves. You don’t have to be a capologist to play this game, but it spells out the details so you feel like you’re one.

Another strategy could be to sign young, ascending talents to long-term deals. Perhaps you love T.Y. Hilton’s game or you think Russell Wilson is about to reach Drew Brees territory and you want to sign them at a minimal cost and hope they become studs after you locked them into a bargain rate. Of course, the risk is they never take that next step and you’ve tied up mediocre talent.

These contracts become more important when making trades, dropping/adding players, and how much money you have available for future rookie drafts and free agent auctions. This is where RSO’s format takes on some of the realism of the NFL.

Let’s say Michael Floyd has a break-out year opposite Larry Fitzgerald now that Carson Palmer is in Arizona and Bruce Arians drafted a couple of guards. If a team only signed Floyd to a 1-year deal, they might not be able to afford to get him back in 2014 and could lose him to a team with a lot of cap room at that point.

Waldman’s RSO Writer’s League Strategy: Rookie Draft and Free Agent Auction

Here’s the basics about this 14-team league:

Scoring Basics

  • PPR w/a 1-point bonus after 10 receptions
  • 4 pts/Pass TD; 6 pts/Rush-Rec TDs
  • Points bonuses at 100, 150, and 200 yards rushing and receiving
  • Points bonuses at 300, 350, and 400 yards passing
  • Penalties for interceptions

Roster, Draft, and Cap/Contract Basics

  • Starting lineups: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (WR/TE), 1 DEF, 1 K
  • 30 Roster spots and 3 IR spots
  • Five-round, serpentine rookie draft (no trades)
  • Each team has the following number of multi-year contracts available in the Free Agent Auction Draft
    • 4-year Free Agency Contracts (1)
    • 3 -year Free Agency Contracts (2)
    • 2 -year Free Agency Contracts (3)
    • 1-year contracts (19)
  • Note: rookie contracts in the serpentine draft are all three-year deals at a tiered value according to draft spot. Rookie contracts offered in the free agency draft are “free agent deals,” which means it can be a multi-year deal or a one-year deal based on bid.

I had the eight-spot in this 14-team rookie draft and I stuck close to the RSP Post-Draft playbook with one major exception:

  • 1.08 – WR Keenan Allen
  • 2.07 – WR Da’Rick Rogers
  • 3.08 – WR Marquess Wilson
  • 4.07 – TE Luke Willson
  • 5.08 – QB Sean Renfree

While RSO allows for a third running back as a flex-play in its league setup options, I personally dislike it. There’s something that goes against my football aesthetic when I see fantasy leagues with a third running back. I play in them all the time, but since this was “my” league I got to make the rules.

The strategic influence of this wrinkle to starting lineups is that receiver and tight end depth become a little more important if thinking long-term. On the one hand, running backs tend to make a bigger impact early so I can see how drafting backs makes more sense in a league like this because at least you get a year or two of strong production from a top-end runner before they become free agents and the market value sky-rockets. Receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks might take a few years and never deliver a return on investment with your squad.

As I finish writing this last paragraph I wonder if I didn’t make a mistake to take running backs with Lacy, Lattimore, Franklin, and Stacy all on the board. However, those were the only backs left in the first round who I felt have a strong chance to make an impact in the first three seasons and not enough to dislodge me from Allen.

Rogers has the kind of upside to render draft status useless. Photo by Wade Rackley.
Rogers has the kind of upside to render draft status useless. Photo by Wade Rackley.

Rookie Thoughts

Keenan Allen: This is a PPR league with yards and reception bonuses and I think Allen has the type of versatile skill set to see a lot of targets from the slot, but also used on the perimeter. I regard Allen as a player similar to Michael Crabtree, but with more upside due to his quarterback. All apologies to Colin Kapernick, who is a promising young player, but Phillip Rivers is a better down field passer and at this point a savvier quarterback.  The San Diego offense under Mike McCoy should feature enough short passing for Allen to provide quality fantasy production this year. As a player whose draft stock was littered with risk, I see Allen as one of the safer picks in this draft class.

Da’Rick Rogers: Once Travis Kelce and Stedman Bailey left with the picks just ahead of me, I opted for the upside of Rogers. Steve Johnson’s recurrent groin issues and the lack of quality receivers in this depth chart before the 2013 NFL Draft make this a nice landing spot for the rookie. Rogers reminds me of a mix of Dwayne Bowe and Terrell Owens. If Rogers even approaches these comps, I have a player with 70-catch potential and the skills to be the most productive receiver on this Bills team. I think Robert Woods is a better technician and will see the most time this year among the rookies if Johnson can stay healthy. However, Johnson’s leg issue could open the door for Rogers in 2014 if the rookie behaves.

Marquess Wilson: There’s a common theme with my first three picks. All three are wide receivers with first- or second-round talent who slid due to factors outside game film study in the pre-draft evaluation process. At just 20 years of age, Wilson will have three years of NFL experience by the time most players his age get drafted. My hope is that Wilson doesn’t break my heart by coming into his own late in year three when I can’t reap any return on him. I think he’s a great fit for Jay Cutler and capable of stepping into the starting lineup this year if called upon. I love his ability to adjust to the ball. He makes a lot of tough catches and can play outside or in the slot due to his quickness. If he can take this difficult year and turn it into a learning experience, he could be the most productive receiver I drafted on this list. I think Marc Trestman and the Bears have similar sentiments.

Luke Willson: Wilson fits the athletic profile of tight end capable of developing into a primary contributor in fantasy leagues.   His 4.5-speed the body of an in-line tight end is every bit as promising as his Rice teammate Vance McDonald, but an ankle injury prevented Willson from making the same impression on NFL teams last year. He made an early impact in mini camp and at this point, I decided to take the chance on Willson’s prospects of developing into a high-end TE1 rather than settling for prospects at the position that I rated higher, but have less upside.

Sean Renfree: Admittedly this probably a wasted pick.  Renfree and Wilson are why I wish I opted for four-year contracts for rookies instead of three. I think the Duke quarterback has the skills to earn the No.2 role in Atlanta this year if he can return from a torn pectoral muscle by July. If not, I still think he can do enough to earn the No.3 spot and work his way into the backup role by 2014. I’m banking on a chance for Renfree to showcase his wares in preseason or a Matt Ryan injury so Renfree can attract a market once he becomes a free agent. I also planned to take Matt Ryan but I execute as well as I should and Football Diehards owner Bob Harris earn Ryan at a steal.  More below.

Pre-Auction Strategy

The running joke in the auction chat room was that by the time we figured out the best ways to approach this league, we’d be halfway through the auction and without the funds to do anything about it.  Looking back at my pre-auction strategy I would say my experience was not the same. I had a good clue, but my poor analysis of my cap hindered my execution.

With just one, four-year deal I hoped to spend it on a quarterback. They have the longest fantasy lifespan of any position and it made the most sense to anchor a high-end starter at that position to my roster for multiple years. The two players I decided to target were Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson. If I could land one at a reasonable price with my four-year deal, I’d feel great about the long-term outlook of my team.

I also wanted one stud at running back and wide receiver signed to a deal of no less than a two-years so my team can have a chance to remain competitive as my one-year contracts turn over in 2014 and my rookies continue to develop. These are the two positions I hoped to acquire the most depth – especially at receiver. I believe wide outs are the easiest to trade and I want to afford myself flexibility to make deals.

As for executing an auction for your team, there are three basic ways to do it:

  • Studs and Duds: Spend a high percentage of cap on a few big-name starters and then pay the minimum for a supporting cast and depth. This is the most aggressive approach. I won three writers leagues in two years with this technique but its name would be more apt as Studs or Duds because it’s often either/or as a team outcome with this approach.
  • Middle of the Road: This technique is about setting hard budgets for players and pacing yourself. You don’t go over certain bid amounts. The downside is you rarely land the known studs, but the upside is that you acquire quality depth and spread a number of viable options across your starting lineup. If your fantasy performers demonstrate week-to-week consistency at a high level, you have a winner.
  • Control the End: My friend, Footballguys.com co-owner, and one-time, regular auction competitor David Dodds loves to wait until the rest of the league has spent enough of its cap for him to maintain control of the auction and win the discount deals – and there are always enough – to build a quality team. Dodds loves to talk ridiculous trash to his competition. It’s a common joke among those of us who draft with him that he’s still picking from his top-50 list 200 picks into a draft.

Personally, I try to incorporate a mix of the first two methods. I aim for at least two studs and then opt for mid-level starters – mid-range WR2s and RB2s, and low-end QB1s and TE1s – hoping that half of them have strong years. Then I try to stay patient long enough to have some money at the end and pick a few late-round hopefuls with high upside.

The problem with auction drafts is that I don’t do them as much as I’d like. They are by far my favorite form of league, but time constraints limit me from joining new leagues. If I can convince half of my leagues to adopt this format, I’d be pleased.

Until then, I don’t get as much practice with auctions as I’d like and there are pitfalls I have to be especially careful to avoid:

  • Impulse Buying: It’s easy to get an itchy trigger finger in the opening 50 picks when you see stud after stud coming off the board and you have all of your money in your pocket. I don’t mind paying premium for a couple of players, but when a “couple” is used casually to mean “3 or 4” you can derail your strategy really fast.
  • Trigger Shyness: For me, this happens when I don’t feel clear about player value once the bidding comes down to me and another owner over a player. A couple of seconds of hesitation can cost you a good deal despite a bidding war that seems to go on for minutes at a time.
  • Sticking It to Yourself: One of my favorite aspects about auction leagues is watching owners engage in the practice of increasing the bid on players to police other owners from earning deep discounts. Jim Day and Chad Parsons’ were the best at this on Friday night. They jacked up bid after bid, but made deft exits at the right time to make sure their opponents paid at least what the player was worth – if not more. The danger is that if you pick the wrong player to enforce this strategy, you can get stuck with a guy you don’t want.

In an auction with fantasy writers these practices can get magnified if you’re not careful. Especially with wily vets like Bob Harris, who claims he’s never drafted in an auction league. The Hall of Fame fantasy writer (yes, there is such a distinction) is not a shark as much as he’s a spider with a lair somewhere in the southwest. He spins a really pretty web . . .

Bob Harris stole Matt Ryan and I was the Keystone Cops. Photo by Football Schedule.
Bob Harris stole Matt Ryan and I was the Keystone Cops. Photo by Football Schedule.

My Auction 

I won’t know until I dig deeper into the rest of the rosters, but at first glance I feel better about my team than I did during the auction. I made three mistakes during my draft – one from each category above – and I nearly hamstrung my efforts. Yet, I pulled out some solid deals in the mid-to-late rounds. Perhaps my marathon film study sessions helped me as my competition get sharper as others faded into the night.  Probably not, but it sounds good.

I will be profiling other teams soon. Here are links to the league’s rosters and the auction results. For the info displayed below The contract amount is in increments of millions.  The “R” next to player’s names is for “reserve” a designation based on my potential starting lineup. If there is an “R” in the $ box then it means they were a rookie draft pick with a designated salary by spot in the serpentine draft.

Quarterback Yrs $ Running Back Yrs $ Wide Receiver Yrs $
Jay Cutler (CHI) 1 4.0 Arian Foster (HOU) 2 51.0 Calvin Johnson (DET) 2 69.5
Carson Palmer (ARI) R 1 3.0 Steven Jackson (ATL) 1 16.5 Cecil Shorts (JAC) 4 18.5
Alex Smith (KC) R 2 2.5 Ryan Williams (ARI) R 1 2.5 DeSean Jackson (PHI) 3 10.5
Sean Renfree (ATL) R 3 R Ben Tate (HOU) R 3 7.5 Keenan Allen (SD) 3 R
Alex Green (GB) R 1 0.5 LaVon Brazill (IND) R 1 0.5
Shaun Draughn (KC) R 1 0.5 Marvin Jones (CIN) R 1 1.0
Cedric Peerman (CIN) R 1 0.5 Domenik Hixon (CAR) R 1 0.5
Bobby Rainey (BAL) R 1 0.5 Earl Bennett (CHI) R 1 0.5
Marquess Wilson (CHI) R 3 R
Da’Rick Rogers (BUF) R 3 R
Kenbrell Thompkins (NE) R 1 0.5

Quarterbacks

Here’s where I made the biggest auction gaffe for my team. I got into a bidding war with Bob Harris for Matt Ryan. Mike MacGregor recently acquired Tom Brady with a three-year deal for $40 million. I’d say a deal that comes out at a little more than $13.3 million per year for Brady is a strong buy – even at Brady’s age.

As the competition dropped to the wayside on Ryan, Harris and I were creeping north of $30 million and I hesitated on Ryan’s value. I didn’t have a clear cut-off on Ryan. Was it too much? Clock ticking . . . Didn’t Brady go off the board for more? Clock ticking . . .What was that amount again? 4 . . . 3 . . . Should I use a four-year or three-year deal? 2 . . .

I click the four-year deal, but not in enough time and Harris signs Ryan – perhaps the quarterback in the NFL with the best mix of consistency, years left, upside, and surrounding talent in the league for a paltry $31.5 million for 3 years.

Steal.

I’m a little upset with myself at this point, but Russell Wilson is still left in the auction. The problem is that the next owner smartly nominates Russell Wilson immediately after Harris nabs Ryan, which means Wilson is now in a pool with a bunch of owners who just woke up and realized they let Ryan go off the board for a song.

I realized right after losing the Ryan bid that I was willing to pay $14-15 million per year for the Falcons quarterback so I will probably have to pay at least that much for Wilson based on what just happened. Sure enough the bidding comes down to me and Officer Jim Day of the RSO Writers League Bidding Police Precinct 411.

Within seconds Day and I raise Wilson’s price from $9 million per year to $12 million and climbing. When we reach $15 million per year – alternating with 3- and 4-year offers – I’m stretching beyond my comfort zone because I already spent big money on two other players. Ultimately, I decided to stand down on Wilson and Day landed the Seahawk as his backup to Peyton Manning with a 4-year deal at $63.5 million (total).

Day will have trade bait with that four-year deal if he wants to dangle it. So I opted for plan B – a quarterback by committee with two players I think have a realistic shot at low-end QB1 production and the talent to deliver even more to fantasy owners if the offensive lines improve: Jay Cutler and Carson Palmer for a combined $7 million. While it’s half the price of Wilson – it’s conceivable I get half the quarterback play, too.

Still, I feel good about what’s happening in Chicago with Marc Trestman as the architect and I like the possibilities the Cardinals have with Palmer, Floyd, Fitzgerald, and most important, the upgrades along the offensive line.  I wish I didn’t have to talk about Alex Smith, but “what had happened was . . . ” I tried to increase the bid on Smith early and realized I was doing so with Alex Smith.

Don’t get me wrong, Palmer and Cutler could get hurt by mid season if the Bears and Cardinals offensive lines revert to recent form so Smith could be useful. I also paid a whopping $2 million for 2 years. It may not be what I meant to do, but it was a minor mistake compared to letting Matt Ryan slip in the dark of night to Harris.

cropped-troy-polamalu-by-karen-blaha1.jpg

Running Backs

I had to nab a stud here. I could have gone with a younger guy with upside, but decided I didn’t want to be a part of a bidding war for Trent Richardson or Doug Martin. Football Outsiders writer Rivers McCown nabbed Martin for a reasonable $67.5 million for 3 years, paying somewhere around $22 million of his current year cap as guaranteed money for 2013. This actually looked like a nice deal  compared to what Jason Wood shelled out for Adrian Peterson – a two-year signing for $71 million.

It was on the heels of that Peterson deal that Arian Foster hit the block and instead of trying to slow roll the bid a little higher and hope I got a deal, I decided to go strong to the hole and hope my competition would hesitate. My competition was still messing around with contracts for $4 million when I upped the number to a two-year, $40 million deal.

If I remember correctly, most of the bids dropped out and after the next competing bid that inched skyward of $41 million, I came hard over the top again with $50 and wound up winning at 2 years, $51 million for Foster. Not a great deal compared to Martin or even Mike MacGregor’s, 4-year $97 million signing of Trent Richardson at a little less per year for twice the tenure, but Harris has a two-year deal on Jamaal Charles for $60.5 million and Tim Stafford has C.J. Spiller at 3 years, $75 million.

I can live with what I paid for Foster – especially for two years.

Steven Jackson at one year for $16.5 million seems pricey for his recent performances in St. Louis, but if you think he still has the juice for at least one more year then he’s at least as skilled as Michael Turner – the Atlanta runner, who had at least 1300 yards and double-digit touchdowns in three of his four seasons between 2009-2011.

I’ll pay $16.5 million for that kind of production. Heck, I’ll pay it for top-20 production for one year and that’s what Turner delivered last year despite a more pass happy system and operating at a step slower than he appeared in the past.

Ben Tate fortunately didn’t get added to the block right after Foster joined my team or else I probably would have to pay a little more. As Lance Zierlein noted, getting Tate at three years, $7.5 million is a nice deal considering that he’ll be a free agent in 2014. I’m not a huge Tate fan, but I have to agree.

Few backs move to a new team in recent years and become studs. Michael Turner, Marshawn Lynch, and Reggie Bush come to mind and they are the minority.  However, even if Tate joins a committee the price is still good value.

Ryan Williams’ stock is at rock bottom. He’s coming off his second injury in two years and Bruce Arians named Rashard Mendenhall the starter. Still, Williams  has starter talent. Arizona’s upgrades make me feel like I could get $2.5 million dollar’s worth (at least) from a finally healthy Williams as my second back off the bench.

Alex Green is a cheap option who still has a chance to make the team. We’ll see if he’s finally healthy enough to compete at the level he’s capable. Shaun Draughn surprised me last year. I saw him at North Carolina and thought he was a good, but not great college runner. He looks a lot quicker than I remember from his days in Chapel Hill. He might still give the Chiefs competition a run for that No.2 spot. Cedric Peerman and Bobby Rainey are two players I believe have the talent, but lack the opportunity.

I just realized I have three receivers from Cal on my squad. DeSean Jackson needs to play to that form to help me contend. Photo by Avinashkunnath.
I just realized I have three receivers from Cal on my squad. DeSean Jackson needs to play to that form to help me contend. Photo by Avinashkunnath.

Wide Receiver

I probably overpaid for Calvin Johnson. My deal came on the heels of Lance Zierlein giving up $92.5 million for three years. I should have resisted, but I admit that I got impulsive with the prospect of having Johnson on my team. He has been a top-five fantasy receiver for three straight years, he’s been the top fantasy receiver overall for two years straight (even with only 5 touchdowns in 2012), and he’s winning against triple coverage. He’ll be 28 in September. If there’s a player in a PPR league worth this kind of money, Johnson is it.

Although I paid a premium for the best wide receiver in football I did have some pleasant surprises in the middle rounds. My four-year deal went to a player I didn’t anticipate signing: Cecil Shorts. A polarizing player in the fantasy community, Shorts has big-play skills but spotty quarterback play has some people down on the receiver’s future. Chase Stuart gives a balanced opinion with the stats and some context to the numbers. At 4 years, $18.5 million I paid for a young player with high-end No.2 upside without a good quarterback at a No.3 receiver price point.

I also think DeSean Jackson could be a steal at $10.5 million over 3 years. I’m not chest-thumping this signing yet, because he hasn’t had starter numbers since 2011 and he hasn’t truly played like one since 2010. If he an return to 2009-2010 form, I’ll have a formidable corps at a bargain – even with Calvin Johnson.

Bryan Fontaine has one of my favorite receiving trios in this league: Dwayne Bowe, Larry Fitzgerald, and Dez Bryant for a total of $108.5 million. My trio has the potential to match that production as a unit at a $10 million savings. I also have two of my deals of at least three years whereas Fontaine only has one deal over two years. I’m not trying to tell you that my corps is better than Fontaine’s group, but I’m not as far away as it appears on paper.

Domenik Hixon is skilled enough to win the slot job in Carolina and even outplay Brandon LaFell. The rest of my wideouts are RSP favorites with chances to earn playing time this year: Marvin Jones, LaVon Brazill, and Earl Bennett all have potential to contribute and they’re excellent players with the ball in the air.

Can't go wrong with this VD. Photo by The Bay Area Bias.
Can’t go wrong with this VD even if I went wrong with Smith. Photo by The Bay Area Bias.
Tight End Yrs $ Kicker Yrs $ Defense Yrs $
Vernon Davis (SF) 1 8.0 Sebastian Janikowski (OAK) 1 0.5 Seattle 1 2.5
Dwayne Allen (IND) R 1 2.5 Robbie Gould (CHI) R 1 0.5 Detroit 1 0.5
Luke Willson (SEA) R 3 R

Tight Ends, Kickers, and Defenses

If Vernon Davis produces like he did during the 2012 season, I overpaid. If Davis plays like has in the postseason, I’ll have a bargain. I think he’s the best all-around tight end in football, but he doesn’t get the chance to show it as a receiver due to quarterback play. Hopefully Kaepernick continues to find Davis like he did in January. I’m a Dwayne Allen fan and I believe he’ll provide good bye-week value.

Janikowski and Gould are like the Odd Couple. One is on a team that might have trouble scoring but can boot it from 60 yards. The other lacks great range, but should see more opportunities due to the offense. I’ll roll with these two for a total of $1 million.

I paid about twice as much for Seattle than I wanted, but it’s another case of paying for value. Detroit is my bye-week option.

Team Outlook

I’m not going to say my team is a great contender. If I got Matt Ryan or Russell Wilson I think I’d feel a little more confident. As it stands, I think my team is in the middle of the pack. The upside of I think Johnson, Foster, and Steven Jackson will keep me competitive as long as I get similar play from Cecil Shorts and Vernon Davis at their best stretches of 2012. If Cutler, Palmer, or DeSean Jackson play to their potential I’ll have a real shot.

Stay tuned this week for more analysis of RSO teams and try a league. Use the promotion code RSP20%OFF to earn a 20 percent discount.

Reality Sports Online Writers Keeper-Contract League

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
How much would you pay for A.J. Green in a Contract-Auction-Dynasty League? Photo by Football Schedule.
How much would you pay for A.J. Green in a Contract-Auction-Dynasty League? Photo by Football Schedule.

Over the course of the next year, I have accepted the opportunity to start a unique league with a rookie snake draft and a free agent auction. Today, we’re kicking off a five-round rookie draft. The cool thing about this league is that the contract and cap mimics the NFL. In fact the owners of this site –Reality Sports Online – were both former employees of an NFL team. One was the capologist and the other legal representation. They’ve built an award-winning site that distills a process that takes 2-3 months in the NFL into a matter of hours.

The RSO Writers League is a 14-team, contract/keeper/salary cap format. Here are more basics about the league. Start your own league and get a discount when you use this coupon code: RSP20%OFF

Scoring Basics

  • PPR w/a 1-point bonus after 10 receptions
  • 4 pts/Pass TD; 6 pts/Rush-Rec TDs
  • Points bonuses at 100, 150, and 200 yards rushing and receiving
  • Points bonuses at 300, 350, and 400 yards passing
  • Penalties for interceptions

Roster, Draft, and Cap/Contract Basics

  • Starting lineups: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (WR/TE), 1 DEF, 1 K
  • 30 Roster spots and 3 IR spots
  • Five-round, serpentine rookie draft (no trades)
  • $123 million cap
  • Each team has the following number of multi-year contracts available in the Free Agent Auction Draft
    • 4-year Free Agency Contract (1)
    • 3 -year Free Agency Contract (2)
    • 2 -year Free Agency Contract (3)
    • 1-year contracts (19)
  • Rookie Contract Length – 3 Years

For more about Reality Sports Online’s rules and basics, check out its FAQ page.

Reality Sports Online holds its rookie draft as the first step prior to the free agency auction. It’s automated on the site. However, we’re all newbies with their brand of contact/auction drafts so we’re opting for a slow-email draft so there is time for each owner to learn the rules and try to auction room before the draft. The results of the draft will be detailed below.

Round 1

  1. Jeff Tefertiller: WR DeAndre Hopkins
  2. Ryan McDowell: RB Giovani Bernard
  3. Sigmund Bloom: WR Tavon Austin
  4. Mike MacGregor: RB Le’Veon Bell
  5. Bryan Fontaine: WR Cordarrelle Patterson
  6. Tim Stafford: RB Montee Ball
  7. Matt Papson: RB Christine Micheal
  8. Matt Waldman: WR Keenan Allen
  9. Jason Wood: RB Eddie Lacy
  10. Mike Clay: RB Marcus Lattimore
  11. Bob Harris and Mike Dempsey: RB Johnathan Franklin
  12. Rivers McCown: TE Tyler Eifert
  13. Jim Day: RB Zac Stacy
  14. Lance Zierlein: WR Robert Woods

Round 2

  1. Lance Zierlein: WR Markus Wheaton
  2. Jim Day: QB E.J. Manuel
  3. Rivers McCown: WR Justin Hunter
  4. Bob Harris and Mike Dempsey: WR Aaron Dobson
  5. Mike Clay: TE Travis Kelce
  6. Jason Wood: WR Stedman Bailey
  7. Matt Waldman: WR Da’Rick Rogers
  8. Matt Papson: WR Chris Harper
  9. Tim Stafford: WR Quinton Patton
  10. Bryan Fontaine: QB Matt Barkley
  11. Mike MacGregor:  WR Kenny Stills
  12. Sigmund Bloom: QB Geno Smith
  13. Ryan McCowell: TE Jordan Reed
  14. Jeff Tefertiller: WR Terrance Williams

Round 3

  1. Jeff Tefertiller: WR Josh Boyce
  2. Ryan McDowell: RB Latavius Murray
  3. Sigmund Bloom: WR Marquise Goodwin
  4. Mike MacGregor: RB Kerwynn Williams
  5. Bryan Fontaine: WR Charles Johnson
  6. Tim Stafford: RB Mike Gillislee
  7. Matt Papson: TE Zach Ertz
  8. Matt Waldman: WR Marquess Wilson
  9. Jason Wood: QB Tyler Wilson
  10. Mike Clay: RB Andre Ellington
  11. Bob Harris and Mike Dempsey: TE Gavin Escobar
  12. Rivers McCown: RB Stepfan Taylor
  13. Jim Day: TE Levine Toilolo
  14. Lance Zierlein: RB Joseph Randle

Round 4

  1. Lance Zierlein: TE Vance McDonald
  2. Jim Day: RB Mike James
  3. Rivers McCown: WR Ryan Swope
  4. Bob Harris and Mike Dempsey: WR Ace Sanders
  5. Mike Clay: RB Knile Davis
  6. Jason Wood: WR Corey Fuller
  7. Matt Waldman:TE Luke Willson
  8. Matt Papson: WR Aaron Mellette
  9. Tim Stafford: RB Denard Robinson
  10. Bryan Fontaine:RB Chris Thompson
  11. Mike MacGregor: QB Ryan Nassib
  12. Sigmund Bloom: WR Tavarres King
  13. Ryan McDowell: QB Mike Glennon
  14. Jeff Tefertiller: QB Zac Dysert

Round 5

  1. Jeff Tefertiller: TE Chris Gragg
  2. Ryan McDowell: QB Matt Scott
  3. Sigmund Bloom: TE Dion Sims
  4. Mike MacGregor: RB Ray Graham
  5. Bryan Fontaine: “HB” Rex Burkhead
  6. Tim Stafford: RB Kenjon Barner
  7. Matt Papson: WR Eric Rogers
  8. Matt Waldman: QB Sean Renfree
  9. Jason Wood: TE Ryan Otten
  10. Mike Clay: WR Justin Brown
  11. Bob Harris and Mike Dempsey: QB Landry Jones
  12. Rivers McCown: RB Theo Riddick
  13. Jim Day: RB Michael Hill
  14. Lance Zierlein: RB Cierre Wood

2013 1st Round Draft Thoughts and Links

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
The attitude towards the term "project" is often a glass half-full/half-empty proposition. Which one is Manuel? See below. Photo by D Wilkinson.
The attitude towards the term “project” is often a glass half-full/half-empty proposition. The Bills are optimistic. See below. Photo by D Wilkinson.

Looking for a little preview of my 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio Pre-Draft Rankings? The New York Times is posting the RSP top-five at each skill position.

There will likely be a cluster of  quarterbacks and receivers leaving the board in the second and third round who have just as much if not more of an impact that the first-round talent. I think the same will happen with running backs and tight ends in rounds 3-5 and it will be important to analyze team fit in terms of prospect talent, depth chart talent, and scheme.

Remember, when you purchase the RSP you also get the Post-Draft Addendum with revised fantasy rankings across all positions, preliminary ADP data, and player-team fit analysis.  With a draft like this where we didn’t see a lot of skill players go off the board in the first round, the more you know about these guys the better.

Download the 2013 RSP today and when I announce the post-draft add-on is ready you enter your login and password to download it as well.

First-Round Thoughts – You can find links to analysis of a majority of these players here.

1. Kansas City- Left Tackle Eric Fisher: Fisher’s athleticism makes him a slam dunk here. While Joeckel is an excellent player in his own right, Fisher’s ability to pull and the similarities to former Chippewa and Niner tackle extraordinaire Joe Staley made it too difficult for Andy Reid to resist. Remember, Reid loves the screen play and and Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, Dexter McCluster, and Devon Wylie are the type of players with run after the catch skills who will also benefit from a tackle who can work the flats.

2. Jacksonville – Tackle Luke Joeckel: Will he play left or right with Eugene Monroe there? Doug Farrar thinks Joeckel is a better right tackle in terms of athletic match. What I can tell you is that the Jaguars have had their share of ailments at the line of scrimmage and it’s always good to have redundancy at one of the more important positions on offense. There’s still time for Jacksonville to grab a quarterback if they want to make this a three-horse race between a rookie, Blaine Gabbert, and Chad Henne. Personally, I think they would be wise to give Gabbert one more year, but he better shake the “Blame” Gabbert label quick.

3. Miami (trade with Oakland) – Outside Linebacker Dion Jordan: Cameron Wake opposite Jordan, but Jon Gruden brings up an interesting point in terms of Jordan playing a rotation at Oregon and whether he’ll be good for four quarters of NFL football. I’m not too worried about Jordan’s conditioning as much as how he’ll fit into a new defense. He also strikes me as more of a “clean-up” playmaker than the instigator. On a team with Cameron Wake on the opposite side, that’s not a bad thing, but if Jordan had to be that primary guy I’d be more worried. It’s a fine pick and a risk worth taking because of the Aldon Smith upside.

4. Philadelphia – Left Tackle Lane Johnson: A former college quarterback-tight end-right tackle who is now drafted as a left tackle. You need an athlete for up-tempo football and he can play either side. Johnson will bolster the running game and hopefully transition smooth enough to give Mike Vick fewer breakdowns. Of course, Vick has to improve his presnap calls and Johnson has to get used to playing with a mobile quarterback who can be out of control at the wrong times.

5. Detroit – Defensive End Ezekial Ansah: Great athlete who, like Jordan, cleans up better than he starts action. He’s inexperienced compared to even most prospects. Detroit loves his effort and I think this is Jim Washburn lobbying Jim Schwartz for another chance to find a Jason Pierre-Paul. Hopefully there is a fast learning curve or Willie Young takes a huge step forward – he was a second-round pick, you’d think he’s capable. Of course the bills made DT John McCargo a first-round pick and he’s done zilch.

6. Cleveland – Outside linebacker/Defensive End Barkevious Mingo: Mingo’s upside is worth the risk. I think OLB is an easier transition than to DE and he was an LB in high school. Mingo is a misunderstood prospect in terms of his diminished production last year. He was asked to contain the quarterback rather than attack and this meant bull-rushing 300-pound linemen. For a player his size to do this effectively – and he did – takes excellent strength and quickness. First-round pick D.J. Fluker didn’t look all that good against the “raw” Mingo. Cleveland got a potential impact player once this kid refines 1-2 moves that he already has in his toolbox.

7.  Arizona – Guard Jonathan Cooper: One of the safer picks in the draft. Unbelievably quick and his ability to pull not only helps the running game, but play action. Remember, the best play action passes often come with a pulling guard. It’s not always how convincing the quarterback’s fake or the threat of the specific runner as much as it is the fear of the guard. The threat of Cooper will fool a lot of defenders in this league and buy Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald more time. People can make fun of Palmer’s lack of mobility all they want, but he’s far more nimble than many have characterized on TV. Regardless of mobility, Palmer still throws a great deep ball and has three players capable of working down field with the benefit of play action. Cooper will help buy time. If the tackles play a little better, I’d give a bump to Palmer, Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and Andre Roberts. There’s some nice material for this passing game to click and this team will need to throw the ball a lot.

8. St. Louis (trade with Buffalo) – Wide Receiver  Tavon Austin: If Austin is misused, he’ll look like Dexter McCluster pre-Andy Reid days. If his talents are maximized, Darren Sproles and Wes Welker come to mind. Austin is not as talented as either in their specific skills as runners and receivers, but he’s a good mix of both and that means he could be one of the more productivity rookies this year.

9. NY Jets – Cornerback Dee Milliner: I said I’d be surprised (December 1) if he wasn’t a top-10 pick.  Miller’s ability to play the receiver and the ball in tight coverage is excellent. He may not catch a lot of passes, but he knows how to jar it loose and get the angle to knock it away. That’s more important that the interception. He’s also a terrific run defender. The Jets may miss Darrelle Revis, but if Milliner plays like he did at Alabama only your less enlightened New York fans will be bashing Milliner a few years from now.

10. Tennessee – Guard Chance Warmack: Warmack bolsters a Titans line and the hope is to give Chris Johnson and dare I say, Shonn Greene more room to roam. If you ask me, they should take another running back. Spencer Ware could beat Greene in his sleep and make a great complement to Johnson, but I don’t think the front office would like to be embarrassed for its misstep on free agent runners so don’t count on it. Then again, if they were foolish enough to take Greene, perhaps they lack the awareness to avoid a better back they can get in rounds 5-7.

11. San Diego – Tackle D.J. Fluker: Safe pick who can play tackle or guard, but I wonder if this is a “play not to lose” pick. Fluker is that kind of guy that teams say “if he doesn’t work at tackle, we at least have a guard.” That’s not how I want to feel about a first-round pick. Cleveland did that with tackle Jason Pinkston two years ago, but the budding stud at guard was a fifth-round pick.

12. Oakland – Cornerback D.J. Hayden: A good player versus the pass. But when the largest artery in your body attached to your heart looks like wet toilet tissue in the operating room and you’re seconds from death, it’s hard to believe the Raiders would be this confident to take Hayden this early. I like their confidence, but for an organization with a track record of taking great athletes with high risk thresholds fans have to be somewhat concerned. If it pays off, he’ll be just what this team needs because its cornerback depth chart is unproven, at best.

13. NY Jets – Defensive Tackle Sheldon Richardson Excellent athlete, but is he a three-technique? What does this mean for the future of the defensive scheme and use of current personnel like Coples?

14. Carolina – Defensive Tackle Star Lotulelei: I think he’s capable of being the best player in this draft. I have a feeling the heart condition scared off all these steak-eating, heart medicine-taking football decision-makers in their 50s and 60s who considered the Utah defensive tackle early. There’s concern he wears down late in games but nobody plays 91.5 percent of the season’s snaps and doesn’t wear down. That’s an insane amount of snaps for a big man. He anticipates the snap better than any defensive tackle in this draft and I think his pass rushing will be better than people characterize once he’s on a rotation that doesn’t ask him to play as much as he did out west. If Jon Beason, Luke Kuechley, and Thomas Davis stay healthy, the Panthers may compete for a playoff spot in 2013.

15 Saints – Safety Kenny Vacarro: A physical, aggressive, athletic tone-setter, Vaccaro is one of my three must-have players along with Lotulelei and Fisher. He should grow into a fine player and be capable of covering slot receivers and tight ends.

16 Bills – QB E.J. Manuel: See this link for more on Manuel. It is fascinating that Marrone took Manuel over Nassib – the quarterback Greg Cosell, Russ Lande, and Jon Gruden thought was the best pro-ready passer. Manuel’s accuracy needs work, but it’s more a conceptual than technical issue. I’m not even sure you call it a flaw as much as inexperience. We’ll see if Todd McShay’s “slow eyes” assertion will be an issue. I thought Manuel read the field well and learned fast from his mistakes. He’ll make some foolish plays, but I don’t think they’ll be the same type over and over. What they’ll be able to do with Manuel and the running backs will also be something to watch. What I do worry about is the lack of a deep threat in Buffalo. Steve Johnson is a fine player, but not a classic field stretcher. They need one and I think that will be addressed in this draft – perhaps one of the next two picks.

17 Pittsburgh – LB Jarvis Jones: This makes as much sense as peanut better and jelly on toasted bread.

18 San Francisco – Eric Reid, Safety: Reid replaces Dashon Goldson. A good player who has room to get better and should do so on a defensive unit this good.

19 Giants – Guard Justin Pugh: Honestly, I don’t know much about him.

20 Chicago – Guard/OT Kyle Long: See above.

21 Cincinnati – Tight End Tyler Eifert: Joe Goodberry says Jermaine Gresham’s contract ends after 2014. Eifert has enough skill as a blocker to develop into a decent replacement with more consistent hands and routes than Gresham. I like the pick because Gresham will be the guy on the line of scrimmage and Eifert can play the Y tight end who moves around and presents problems for defenses in 12 personnel sets. This should help the run and pass game and the Bengals struggled on the ground. Of course, I don’t think they know their running back talent and that might be part of th problem, too.

22 Atlanta – Cornerback Desmond Trufant: Trufant fits the mold of a first-round corner: athletic, aggressive, and confident. He was also battle-tested due to a sub par defensive unit and perhaps the Falcons liked this about him as well. They know he’ll continue battling and not go into a shell when he gets beat.

23 Minnesota – Defensive Tackle Sharrif Floyd: Minnesota has some success developing linemen so I think it’s a good fit for Floyd, who has the potential to become an excellent 4-3 defensive tackle. The pad level has to get better, but this was a good place to take Floyd – rather than the top of the first round.

24. Indianapolis Defensive End/OLB Bjoern Werner: I like Werner as an outside linebacker/elephant-type Terrell Suggs prospect. The quickness and awareness at the line of scrimmage are good enough that I think Werner projects better here than a traditional defensive end.

25. Minnesota – Cornerback Xavier Rhodes:  I love this pick because Rhodes has a chance to become a shut-down corner. He has the most athletic upside of the corners in this class. I’ll say this, if the Vikings can get good quarterback play, they have the talent to contend in the NFC North. They are trying their best not to waste the talents of Adrian Peterson and I applaud them for being aggressive. See below.

26. Green Bay – Defensive End Datone Jones: A tough, aggressive defensive end who held his own against Eric Fisher and should bolster this Packers unit.

27. Houston – Wide Receiver DeAndre Hopkins: I think Hopkins was the safest receiver in this draft and the most likely to help the Texans now and develop into a primary option once Andre Johnson leaves. Hopkins is quick, physical, and reliable. He’ll exploit single coverage and should see plenty of it. If the Texans continue to use a run-heavy offense with a play action component, Hopkins will also get deep the way Hakeem Nicks can. It’s early, but one of my favorite skill position picks in this draft.

28.Denver – Defensive Tackle Sylvester Williams: Quick first step. I’ll let Cecil Lammey tell you about it next Thursday.

29.  Minnesota (trade w/New England) – Playmaker Cordarrelle Patterson: Patterson can return kicks, punts, work from the backfield, and catch passes. He’s a much better pass catcher than some characterize because his drops are not about issues with his hands, but issues of looking the ball into his body before he tries to run. It’s an obvious flaw for a player who might be the best run after the catch player I have seen in college football. This will scare football fans my age, but physically he reminds me a little of Michael Westbrook as a runner – strong agile, fast, and elusive. If he loves football more than Westbrook, he could be a player similar to Dez Bryant but perhaps even better with the ball in his hands and more versatile. I love this kind of move because the Vikings need help now and Patterson may not help immediately as a receiver the way Hopkins could have, the team should be smart enough to find ways to use Patterson in the offense and get big plays.

30 St. Louis – Linebacker Alec Ogletree: The Georgia linebacker will play outside in this scheme and his combination of athleticism and skill as a former safety make him a player that reminds me of former Jeff Fisher linebacker Keith Bullock. Ogletree lacks that refined skill, but I see why the Rams took him.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now.  Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: Why Scouting Gets a Bum Rap – A Front Office Overhaul

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
It's time to take front offices to the Wood Shed. No beatings though. Photo by Richard Elzey.
It’s time to take front offices to the wood shed. No beatings though. Photo by Richard Elzey.

Scouting gets a bum rap.

“Of course Waldman would say this,” you proclaim. “He’s a scout!”

I may perform the fundamental role of one, but I am not a scout. This elicits laughter from my friend Ryan Riddle. The Bleacher Report columnist who holds Cal’s single season sack record and played with the Raiders, Ravens, and Jets says I have a misplaced sense of honor when it comes to refusing to wear that label.

I prefer talent evaluator, tape watcher, tapehound, or tapehead. My friends – if I have any left since I started doing this work eight years ago – might say ‘Film Hermit’ is the best fit. I’ve never worked for an NFL team, so these names seem more suitable to me. Scouts have responsibilities that I don’t – among them is reporting to management within a company structure.

If you have the chance to learn about the pre-draft process for most NFL teams, scouting is the study of a player’s positive and negative characteristics. It’s also an evaluation of how easy it is to fix the player’s issues and his potential fit within a team system. But based on what former scouts, coaches, and general managers of NFL teams say about the machinations that go into a team’s draft, I am thankful that I am not a scout.

While fans and writers may take the lazy route and blame picks gone wrong on poor scouting, it’s the general manager, coach, and owner who hold the weight of the decision-making power. This is a huge reason why scouting gets a bum rap.

To take it a step further, I’ll advance the popular Bill Parcells analogy of ‘buying the groceries.’ I can spend months in the grocery store and tell you that it has quality cuts of grass-fed steak; a delicious, rosemary batard baked in-house; and every variety of apple found in North America. But if those holding the wallet or cooking the food demand a papaya, I can tell them until I’m blue in the face that if they want a good one, it’s only found in Jamaica and they’re still going to pick an unripe one, take it home, prepare it, and then watch it spoil the meal.

It doesn’t help matters when I have to read Mike Tanier describe draft analysis as a pseudoscience. He’s right for the wrong reasons. Scouting is a craft, not a science. However, teams haven’t made it the same priority to address opportunities to improve scouting the way they have upgraded technology and embraced other forms of analysis.

With all the advances that the NFL has made with equipment, strategy, cap management, and technology, they haven’t done enough to advance the process of talent evaluation. It shouldn’t the sports equivalent of Madam Zora’s, but until teams address the problems, Tanier gets to write entertaining draft pieces at their expense.

I think there is a lot that teams can do to improve their talent evaluation processes. What I will propose here are things I’ve learned from my experience in operations and process improvement. I base my solutions on problems I’ve gleaned in conversations with former scouts, reading and listening to former NFL general managers talk about their past roles, and extensive study of college prospects for the past eight years.

Some of these ideas may be new to the NFL, but I don’t begin to think they are revolutionary in the scope of other industries. I’m sharing these things because it’s too easy to listen to a gray-haired man in a suit on a television network and take what he says as gospel – especially processes that are in fact fundamentally flawed and then perpetuated from generation to generation of football men.

When viewing NFL front offices and how they cope with change, I get the impression that many of them have a buttoned-up, low-risk culture similar in dynamic to Wall Street. It also takes a lot for newer ideas to take hold in an NFL front office as it does for an investment bank to accept “new blood” from a business school lacking a history of established connections with the firm as a personnel pipeline.

Some of what I’ll suggest is not even about new ideas; just better implementation of old concepts. The first point below is a good example where leaders tend to talk the talk better than they walk it.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

Futures: Unknown, Unsung, and Underappreciated

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There's a player in this draft who reminds me of Cruz in the sense that he's an unknown and underrated. Photo by Football Schedule.
There’s a player in this draft who reminds me of Cruz in the sense that he’s an unknown and underrated. Photo by Football Schedule.

When you’re in my line of work, the most memorable players are often the unknowns, the underappreciated, and the underdogs. One of the most memorable for me was a player I watched in September 2006, whose performance against a top-ranked Tennessee Volunteers defense was so good that it belied his 24-carry, 72-yard box-score entry.

Here’s what I wrote about him in my game notes:

This was an impressive performance for [prospect], who
demonstrated unequivocally that he is a tough, physical back than can carry the load and get the difficult yardage as well as break the play outside or beat defenders in the open field with his moves and quickness. He rarely went down on the first hit unless the defender made a perfect form tackle.

It’s very impressive how low he can run in short yardage situations to get 2-3 tough yards against stacked defenses. Players bounced off [prospect] repeatedly in this game. This was one of the more impressive efforts I saw from a back all year.

These are notes meant for my own use, otherwise I would have found an appropriate synonym for “impressive,” so I didn’t use it three times in a five-sentence span. This 5-foot-11, 192-pound runner had one of my favorite performances of the year -– a year where Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch were the headliners at running back for the 2007 NFL Draft.

Like most, Lynch and Peterson were my top two backs. However this runner, who wowed me despite a sub-par yardage day, was ranked fourth in my pre-draft rankings. In 2007, 25 running backs went off the board.

Ahmad Bradshaw –- that No. 4 back on my board –- was the last runner taken in the draft; the 40th pick in the seventh round, going 250th overall. If we look at current career production, I was wrong about Bradshaw as my No. 4 back.

He has actually been the third-most productive runner from this draft class.

Players like these are memorable because let’s face it, unknown, unsung, and underappreciated usually means undrafted and unemployed. When a late-round or undrafted player makes his mark, it appeals to the part of us that roots for the underdog.

Whether it’s the small-school prospect with the big-time game, the well-known player whose skills are even better than advertised, or the overshadowed longshot with shocking moments of excellence, my favorite part of studying college prospects is watching talent that flies below the national radar.

Bradshaw’s obstacles towards reaching the NFL radar were injuries, off-field immaturity, and a B-list college program. I can think of others who fit the bill.

Victor Cruz was a small-school prospect with a big-time game. Ray Rice was a well-known college star who proved he was big enough, quick enough, and skilled enough to get the job done as a pro. Priest Holmes and Terrell Davis are great examples of talents that toiled in supporting roles behind talented teammates like Ricky Williams and Garrison Hearst after injuries cost them chances of earning more playing time.

My publication, the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, is a pre-draft analysis of offensive skill players that I publish April 1. (It also has a post-draft addendum.) What I enjoy the most about the April 1 publication is the opportunity to generate rankings where “draft stock” carries little to no weight. It’s a chance to focus more on the talent and less on the business.

This week, I’m sharing one unknown, one unsung, and one underappreciated prospect from my 2013 RSP analysis. I believe each prospect has the talent to out-perform his draft stock. These are excerpts from this year’s RSP that have been re-purposed for this column. It’s a small preview of what you’ll find in the publication.

Read the Rest at Football Outsiders