Category Matt Waldman

Futures: The Hybrid RB Evolution

Patriots RB Shane Vereen is a good example of the influx of backs capable of making receiver-like adjustments on the football. Photo by John Martinez Paviliga.
Patriots RB Shane Vereen is a good example of the influx of backs capable of making receiver-like adjustments on the football. Photo by John Martinez Paviliga.

March is the month that I take 14-to-18 months of research and use it to generate rankings and analysis for the April 1 Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication. The labor involved in this compressed time period involves a workweek with hours averaging in the triple digits. I believe this will be the last year I have to do it this way.

I’m disclosing this because when you spend close to 100 hours in a five-day span reviewing play-by-play reports, scouting checklists, NFL Combine measurements, and watching several dozen sequences of plays another half-dozen times in order to write about running backs, you see things that you want to share. I’m not talking about hallucinations –- although I admit that I engaged in a brief, one-sided conversation with the side-view mirror of a red pickup truck parked near my favorite lunch spot in downtown Athens during the hour I took each day to leave the office that didn’t involve sleep.

That brief one-sided conversation reminded me of something Doug Farrar observed while having lunch at the Senior Bowl: Southern folk seem more accepting of eccentric behavior. I thought he was referring to someone else until that moment.

That Farrar is a perceptive guy.

Other than the realization that I’m eccentric, one of the big takeaways I had from these marathon analysis sessions of this running back class is that I think the NFL could be on the precipice of a more widespread change with how teams use the position in the passing game.

The hybridization of the NFL has been in progress for years. Marshall Faulk, Reggie
Bush, and Darren Sproles are the popular choices as heads on the pro game’s Mount Rushmore of runner-receiver hybrids. Personally, James Brooks would be my fourth bust in that crew.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/F68uk_EKCrs?start=110]

Brooks caught the ball away from his body on difficult passes even by wide receiver standards. And compared to other NFL backs of his era, Brooks saw a lot of downfield targets that many teams wouldn’t consider throwing to their runners.

These four would be my choices as the players who have ushered in the dawning of the hybrid runner era. Bush and Sproles have made splitting the back from the formation a more common and desirable practice, but Brooks and Faulk were evolutionary oddities. In fact, I’d argue that Faulk’s ability to run intermediate routes like a starting receiver made the Rams back ahead of his time in the same way that Jim Brown’s speed, change of direction, and short-area explosiveness in a 232-pound frame was ahead of the curve.

What is happening at the college level may be approaching a future that Faulk provided fans a glimpse of. The future is beyond the long handoffs and the occasional wheel and seam routes that Bush and Sproles execute. It’s the ability of runners of all shapes and sizes to make plays on targets in tight coverage or to see primary targets on so-called, “50/50 balls” –- even passes where backs are “thrown open” by design.

And it’s not just scat backs seeing these targets; prototypical bell cow backs and short-yardage types are getting into the act. This is a bold step forward in the evolutionary line of the position.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

RSPWP2: Recent Analysis

I've built a Hot Tub Time Machine for Palmer. Too bad there's not enough room for Chad Johnson. Photo by Keith Allison.
I’ve built a Hot Tub Time Machine for Palmer. Too bad there’s not enough room for Chad Johnson. Photo by Keith Allison.

As we get into the meaty portion of the draft phase for the Second Annual Rookie Scouting Portfolio Writers Project, the pick analysis will be less frequent. We’re giving writers more slack to deliver pick analysis after each selection. If they want to write blurbs, they will. If not, we’ll catch them at the end of the draft to deliver more info.

And I’m sure they will want to deliver info when our panel of writers judging this project will want to see their cases made for why they’ve built the foundation of a winner. More on that to come.

Recent pick blurbs that have been posted from the past 2-3 rounds include:

  • Sam Monson on Mike Wallace paired with Peyton Manning and Andre Johnson – there’s also great commentary from regular reader “Samuel,” be sure to check that out.
  • Ryan Riddle on former teammate Marshawn Lynch as a huge value and also a take on Anthony Spencer’s prowess at defensive end
  • Dave Richard mixes youth (G Kevin Zeitler) with experience (WR Roddy White)
  • Cian Fahey delivers another take on drafting pure talent vs. talent for scheme as he discusses cornerback Asante Samuel
  • Yours Truly weighs in on finally taking a skill position player – and a quarterback at that

While not all the picks have analysis, each team in the Draft Room has its picks up to date for your perusal. We also have a report on picks by position. You can follow the RSPWP pick-by-pick on Twitter #RSPWP2.

The RSP Writers project is brought to you by the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Learn more about the 2013 RSP Writers Project and check out the completed 2012 RSP Writers Project where we built teams under a realistic salary cap. You can try it yourself.

 

 

Contest: Win the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio (New Hints)

Could this be Giovanni Carmazzi's playing field? Sounds funny now, but in 20 years he probably has a way better quality of life than most NFL players. Photo by Alex E. Proimos.
Could this be Giovanni Carmazzi’s playing field? Sounds funny now, but in 20 years he probably has a way better quality of life than most NFL players. Win an 2012 RSP below by guessing, who these “G.O.A.T.S” are. Photo by Alex E. Proimos.

Update – Contest is Over. You can find the answers here.

New to the blog? Haven’t bought the Rookie Scouting Portfolio before? Want to see why so many of my readers can’t wait until April 1? Wondering why I have a photo that could be Giovanni Carmazzi’s farm? See below.

Here are five scouting summaries from current and/or former NFL prospects from the past 13 years. These are not my summaries but from various analyst sources. Be among the first five* to guess all five players correctly, you win the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – including the post-draft update.

To Qualify

  1. Click “Follow” on the home page to follow the RSP blog.
  2. Submit the form with all the information filled out.
  3. Guess the correct players.
  4. Don’t Tweet or email guesses.

*I reserve the right to issue a tiebreaker contest if we have multiple, correct entries. If you already have the 2012 RSP and deemed a winner, you can select your choice of any RSP from 2006-2011. Sorry, but not giving away 2013’s publication in this contest.

Good luck!

Scouting Summary No.1 – Running Back

  • NFL Comparison: Jerome Bettis
  • Running Skill: Punshing, with outstanding leg drive and leverage. Runs low to the ground and delivers blow every time he carries ball. Doesn’t have great quickness but shows good feel between tackles and always runs hard. Solid feet; can pick and slide. Shows good vision and patience, then a special burst when he finds seam…[outside running] may be his weakest area at next level. Has solid speed and quickness but will have hard time getting around corner. Not a home run threat but does a good job of finding hole and attacking it. Will not break many long runs at next level because he simply doesn’t have speed or extra gear to create separation.
  • Blocking: Has little experience but shows natural instincts picking up blitz. Has perfect frame to anchor. Possesses great base as blocker but will need to work on technique and use of hands. Biggest challenge will be adjusting on move when asked to make downfield block.
  • Receiving: Mostly a dump-off type receiver. Has been reliable when asked to participate in passing game but a bit stiff as a route runner and hands undersized. Not a downfield threat but causes matchup problems when he gets ball in open field.
  • Overall: Most naturally powerful back in draft and has type of size/speed combo to wear down defenses. Premier-type back, but question remains whether he’s an every-down back. Has limited experience as blocker and receiver and has taken lots of hits, which worries scouts when analyzing potential durability.
  • Hint No.1: There was a 2000-yard runner in this draft class and this prospect is not that runner.
  • Hint No.2: That 2000-yard runner in this draft class was Jamal Lewis.

Scouting Summary No.2 – Wide Receiver

  • NFL Comparison: None listed but, described by this group as “Good size; five inches taller and 30 pounds heavier than average. Long arms and legs. Large hands . . . Long strider with outstanding speed for a player of his size.
  • Position Skills: Able to get smooth release from the line. Uses his hands and body well against defenders. Physical; a tough matchup for smaller corners. Smooth route-runner. Loses speed in and out of breaks. Lacks quickness. Able to create separation using his body to shield defenders from the ball. Will make the tough catch in traffic. Shows good body control in working the sidelines. Will fight for the ball. Comes back to the quarterback when the play breaks down. Soft, reliable hands. Will extend his hands and catch the ball out away from his body. Shows good concentration and seldom drops a catchable ball. Adjusts well to the ball in the air. has enough speed to stretch the defense and take a catch the distance, but lacks a burst. Impressive yards-per-catch average. Will need to improve his blocking skills.
  • Hint: Has been arguably one of the two most successful receivers of his draft class despite not earning a consensus top-15 rank at his position at the time.
  • Hint No.2: One of the consensus top-three prospects from this class I’m referring to sat out of football for a year before entering NFL Draft because NCAA ruled him ineligible after initially winning a court ruling vs. NFL for early entry.

Scouting Summary No. 3 – Running Back

  • Comparison: None provided, but he’s a bigger back.
  • Running Skill: Shows good instincts and vision to find holes. Makes quick cuts to get around blockers and into open space. Is a strong, competitive runner who maintains balance amid high hits to gain yards after contact . . .Runs upright; must learn to lower his shoulder and make himself a smaller garget. Is a one-speed runner. Gets tripped up by low grab tackles. Lacks elusiveness to make tacklers miss.
  • Overall: For a big rusher, lacks the explosiveness and elusiveness good NFL backs have. Teams should wait until at least the fifth round to grab [this back] because he isn’t likely to harness his potential and become a solid starter.
  • Hint: His 40-time was nearly 4.7 at the Combine.
  • Hint No.2: I compared him to Eddie George .

Scouting Summary No. 4 – Quarterback

  • Comparison: Ben Roethlisberger
  • Skills: Has a big-time arm. Can make every NFL throw with zip and accuracy. Is able to throw across his body with accuracy when flushed out of pocket. is able to put the ball right on target. Has a quick and compact delivery. Does an excellent job throwing the ball where only his man can make a play. Sees the entire defense well, goes through his progressions and is consistently able to find the open receiver. Does not force balls into bad spots. Identifies defense at the snap well. Is able to make plays with his feet. Can pull free from a potential sack, reset his feet and still get the throw off. Can pull the ball down and scramble for the first down….Has questions about whether he’s ready to handle the NFL. Is regarded as an excellent leader who takes command of a team and leaves no doubt that he’s in charge.
  • Overall: [Player] is only going to get better and should eventually become a top-line NFL quarterback who surpasses the achievements of position mates at [his college].
  • Hint: Easy once you get past the less-than-obvious comparison that might cloud things for you.
  • Hint No.2: His cohort at the top of this positional class went to high school near Dallas, Texas.

Scouting Summary No.5 – Wide Receiver

  • NFL Comparison: Jerry Rice
  • Skills: Exceptional hand-eye coordination and concentration. Rarely drops a pass. Can elevate and snatch in a crowd. Does an excellent job catching the ball at highest point. Has bigger hands than body would indicate. Catches away from body and pulls it in with one quick motion. Underrated route runner. Exceptional quicks and body control. Elite burst in and out of cuts. Understands passing game and knows where to be. Has good speed and separation of top vertical receiver and sharp movement, vision, quick hips and excellent feet of celebrated possession receiver. Will become the best in the league after the catch. All the tools and tremendous body control. Undersized, but runs hard enough and plays low enough to ground to pick up extra yardage. Rarely gets jammed because of exceptional feet. Shows outstanding double moves off line and uses hands well to create separation. May have trouble versus bigger, physical corners but is too quick to get jammed. Graduated with a degree in political science in December before draft.
  • Overall: Unquestionably top athlete in draft with chance to become all-time great.
  • Hint: If the draft was Wall Street and this player a bank, he’d be “too big to fail.”
  • Hint No.2: His WR teammate in college had a much more productive career.

[contact-form][contact-field label=’Name’ type=’name’ required=’1’/][contact-field label=’Email’ type=’email’ required=’1’/][contact-field label=’Prospect No.1′ type=’text’ required=’1’/][contact-field label=’Prospect No.2′ type=’text’/][contact-field label=’Prospect No.3′ type=’text’/][contact-field label=’Prospect No.4′ type=’text’/][contact-field label=’Prospect No.5′ type=’text’/][/contact-form]

“If You’re Looking For The Next Russell Wilson…”

It's okay to look for the "next Russell Wilson," you might not find him - but I bet you'll eventually find a prospect worth the search if you keep an open mind. tPhoto by Neal D.
It’s okay to look for the “next Russell Wilson,” you might not find him – but I bet you’ll eventually find a prospect worth the search if you keep an open mind. Photo by Neal D.

WARNING: This is a post is about to engage in a severe form of nitpicking of two quality analysts of football – one whom I know and respect greatly. I only know the true intention of one of the two statements below about NFL quarterback prospects and that one came with Doug’s response after originally posting this peice – and it wasn’t what I was thinking. Even before posting this addendum, I had a feeling these quotes didn’t match the thoughts of the speakers.

What was more important to me about these quotes wasn’t the thoughts behind the speakers, but the general attitude I’m seeing in other contexts. Attitudes that – regardless of the intent of these quotes – sound dismissive.  And it’s the conclusions these statements appear to make that are as dead wrong as Marion Crane opting for the secluded Bates Motel rather than continuing to drive on a rainy night

If you’re looking for the next Russell Wilson this year, ask yourself this: How long did it take to find the “next Drew Brees?”

-Doug Farrar, Via Twitter (See note at end of post)

Russell Wilson, you’re not going to find Russell Wilsons every year. You’re not going to find Russell Wilsons every 20 years, 5-10 ½ quarterbacks that can play at the level, you’re just not going to find. We haven’t had them before. So if you count them, forget one hand. One finger, two fingers. I mean you don’t need more than a couple of fingers to figure that out.

So at the end of the day, don’t try to find that guy. He’s not there.

– Mel Kiper

I know Doug. He’s a terrific football analyst. He’s also right about looking for Russell Wilson in the respect that there’s a microscopic likelihood of finding a player of Wilson’s overall excellence this year. I just think his statement about how long it took to find Brees represents a thought among some to not to even look.

That’s how it sounds when you read Kiper’s comment. He begins with the same statement. Then he pulls the lever for the quote machine allegedly hidden somewhere in that coif [Suggestion to any marketing managers affiliated with ESPN: the next network commercial should have a “bald Kiper.” Make it happen. You’re welcome.] and he has dismissed any attempt out of hand. Next thing you know Drew Brees wasn’t drafted in 2001 and Doug Flutie wasn’t drafted in 1985.

Flutie doesn’t belong on this list, you say? Why not? No team gave him a long-term shot. They dismissed him because he was short. Brees and Wilson have proven it’s a mistake:

I’d keep watching the NFL and see quarterbacks whom I knew I was much better than. I didn’t ever feel I got a fair shot before. The game had changed down here. The success Steve Young had. Mark Brunell. Kordell. Steve McNair. You don’t think Brett Favre plays the way I do? All those guys paved the way for me to come back. In my heart, I’ve always known I could play in this league.

– Doug Flutie

The Curry Kirkpatrick article with this quote also provides a good one from the late John Butler, the former Bills GM who also drafted Drew Brees in San Diego:

Last year, Doug would come to me with dismay on his face,” says Bruce Smith, the Bills’ equally grizzled future-Fame defender. “He didn’t think he would get his shot. But I told him to hang in, it would come. I have to root for us old guys, you know. Now, I guess he figures, ‘What have I got to do?’ If it were me … I don’t know what I’d do. But he has to keep working to prove himself every day.”

So size never hasn’t mattered. Especially when he has disappeared. “With Doug, I guess some of it was out of sight, out of mind,” says Buffalo GM John Butler, almost sheepishly. “People search in vain for a guy like this to run your team, and he’s sitting up there in Canada all along. I guess we should all be ashamed. The league was cheated out of his greatness for eight years.

Let’s not forget Charlie Ward at Florida State, either. Many of my older and savvy readers will say that Ward probably wasn’t good enough to play in the NFL and I have also had my doubts over the years. But the only thing we can really say for sure about Ward is that no one gave him a real chance to prove it.

And at least among some in tight football circles, there aren’t open minds about quarterbacks under six-foot after Russell Wilson broke the rookie touchdown record and nearly overcame a bad half of Seattle football to reach the NFC Championship Game. That’s the real issue.

You don’t dismiss Russell Wilson and Drew Brees as generational anomalies, because it’s not just about short quarterbacks. It’s about quarterbacks who aren’t deemed worthy of a first-round pick and given a two- or three-year shot to be the franchise.

These players are considered generational anomalies in NFL terms for a variety of reasons:

  • Russell Wilson – 3rd round/too short, 2012
  • Tony Romo – UDFA, 2003
  • Drew Brees – 2nd round/too short, 2001
  • Tom Brady – 6th round, 2000
  • Marc Bulger – 6th round, 2000
  • Matt Hasselbeck, 6th round, 1998
  • Kurt Warner – UDFA, 1994
  • Jeff Garcia – UDFA/too short/too light/small school, 1994
  • Brett Favre – 2nd round (his coach said it would take a plane crash for him to put Favre in a game) 1991
  • Rich Gannon – 4th round, 1987

This list isn’t filled with great quarterbacks by any means, but all of them were good starters for a period of time. Some were MVPs and Super Bowl Champions. All of these players have made a Pro Bowl at least once and earned it.

They have also have led their teams to the playoffs. Only Romo, Wilson, and Garcia haven’t led their team to a Super Bowl. That’s 10 quarterbacks since 1987 – 5 in the past 12 years – for a league that has been dismissive of picks not earning the “franchise” selection.

Imagine if media, draft analysts, and most of all, NFL organizations were more open-minded about the idea of “looking” for potential every year rather than dismissing the possibility out of hand. The list would be a lot bigger.

I’m not saying greatness comes along every year at the quarterback position, but there’s a lot of ego behind the decision to spend a high draft pick on a quarterback and that influences the dismissive tone that’s even reflected in the media who interact with NFL organizations and get sucked into the same notion.

This is why when I hear the phrase,  If you’re looking for the next Russell Wilson…[forget it] it bothers me. It’s nitpicking, because I know neither Farrar nor Kiper are truly this dismissive. However, the language is a reflection of the culture they’re observing .

If you’re an NFL team or analyst and you’re not looking for the next unsung quarterback with potential to develop into a winning starter then you’re not doing your job.

Note: As mentioned early and late in this piece I imagined the intent of Farrar’s statement was not a dismissive one and if anything, I was nitpicking the tone of the comments. Farrar explains that he wished he had an opportunity to respond, considering the brief nature of Twitter and the limited space for analysis. Here is Farrar’s explanation:

“Wilson was that rarest of all prospects – maxed out in all possible attributes, but one (height) – and had discovered best ways to overcome that liability. In addition, [Wilson] was given the advantage of a perfect scheme fit in Seattle, who runs frequent two-back sets out of power zone with a west coast passing game. [This] fit Wilson perfectly from N.C. State (WCO) and Wisconsin (a two-back zone offense). Everyone who interviewed him said that at 6-foot-2, he would have been a top-5 pick. In a way, he was rarer than Brees, who needed time.to develop. What I meant by that little Twitter quote was that in a QB class with a bunch of questions and no outliers, people will look for the outlier. And they’re hosed as a result.” 

For analysis of skill players entering the NFL Draft, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: Baylor WR Terrance Williams

Baylor WR Kendall Wright is one of the top 2012 NFL Draft prospects at his position. However, college wide receivers tend to have a lot of little skills to master in order for their skills to translate to great pro production. Wright is no exception.
Terrance Williams broke Kendall Wright’s single season yardage record this year. See why I like his progression as an NFL prospect in my latest Futures column.

I like progress. Especially when that development is happening within a human being. With its high concentration of players to cover within a compressed period of practice time, one of the things sometimes lost in all-star game practice reports is the overarching performance that spans several days.

If there was a player who showed progress at the 2013 Senior Bowl it was Baylor wide receiver Terrance Williams. I didn’t see the first day of the South Team’s practice — it’s the one day where both rosters practice at different facilities on the same day — but based on the receiver’s performance and the praise Lions wide receivers coach Tim Lappanowas dishing his way in each drill, it was clear that Williams was one of the most improved players between Monday and Wednesday. If you had only seen reports about him after Tuesday’s practice, you would have concluded that he was having an inconsistent week.

Inconsistency plus sustained effort is the formula of an ugly process that leads to a beautiful result: personal growth. Williams’ growth as a player hasn’t been isolated to a few days of a college all-star game practice in late January. The Baylor star has demonstrated improvement with his game since I watched him last year.

With prototypical height and weight, the ability to catch the ball with his hands, and big-play ability in the vertical passing game and as an open-field runner, Williams is already considered one of the better wide receiver prospects in this draft class. But Williams’ development is an encouraging sign for the team that selects him in April. Here are four plays that illustrate the changes to Williams’ game. Some of these improvements are a greater consistency of execution compared to years past. I’m taking these examples from his performance in Baylor’s 52-45 overtime victory over Texas Tech in late November. Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

Futures: Houston LB Phillip Steward

Houston linebacker isn't the next Von Miller (above), but he's a promising, late-round find with speed and skill in coverage. Photo by Jeffery Beall.
Houston linebacker isn’t the next Von Miller (above), but he’s a promising, late-round find with speed and skill in coverage. Photo by Jeffery Beall.

There was another game of note played in the shadow of the Super Bowl this weekend: Texas vs. The Nation. In a case where truth is stranger than fiction, the last of the January-February college all-star games has a title that echoes the state government’s desire for seccession. It’s held at Eagle Stadium in Allen, Texas -– a $60 million high school facility. Considering the monstrosity that Jerry Jones built down the road in Dallas, it all makes sense. You just have to understand a Texan’s priorities.

The most talked-about Texas vs. The Nation prospect this week was Tulane quarterback Ryan Griffin. His play surprised some –- “those” being media who don’t pay attention to college football beyond the top 30 to 45 teams. Considering that I watched Griffin throw 66 passes against the Houston Cougars in November, I wasn’t among those who had their cherry popped Texas-Style.

The rite of passage I did experience while watching Griffin was that of another Texas vs. The Nation participant, Cougars linebacker Phillip Steward. The 6-foot-0, 230-pound, All-Conference USA defender had 11 sacks this year and he was ranked ninth in the country with 9.5 tackles for a loss. A good run defender, where Steward excels is pass coverage. He had nine interceptions over the past two seasons –- six of them last year, which was tops among linebackers in college football.

The Cougars often placed Stewart in the slot in its nickel package, and the linebacker claims that he has the best hands on a team that has historically been a pass-happy program. Big words, but when you see some of his highlights you’ll realize that, just like most things in Texas, it all makes crazy sense. Here are several plays that should give you an idea why Steward was not only a marquee commodity at Texas vs. The Nation, but also fared well as a late addition to the Senior Bowl. Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

Play Fantasy Throwdown – Super Bowl Style

Taking a quick break from studying pro prospects to encourage you to check out Fantasy Throwdown – the best, most addictive 1-on-1 fantasy football game around. Free to play, try it during the Super Bowl with your friends. My friend and Throwdown partner Mike MacGregor shares an idea for playing Throwdown at your Super Bowl party.

 

Everyone,

Super Bowl XLVIIIt is finally upon us, Super Bowl Week! The lead up to the biggest game of the year. It took 256 regular season games plus 10 playoff games over 21 weeks to get here since opening kickoff back in September to showcase the Baltimore Ravens versus the San Francisco 49ers for Super Bowl XLVII (a.k.a. 47) and the Lombardi Trophy (a.k.a. all the marbles).

Of course I’m biased, but this is a great time to play Fantasy Throwdown, and to introduce people to Fantasy Throwdown, or in a broader sense, fantasy football. Okay, sure, the player pool is much smaller than a normal Throwdown match of three NFL games, and with the Block it is possible for someone to take a goose egg at kicker, defense, or ~ gasp ~ even quarterback if they aren’t careful (and if their opponent is cut throat).

On the plus side, this is a biggest game of the year, so even your buddies who aren’t hardcore football fans like you or I, they will be watching the Super Bowl and they can get a taste of what this fantasy football thing is you keep yammering on about. That is… if they have some specific players to root for.

Not to mention everything else about Fantasy Throwdown works great to get newcomers invested in our hobby. The format is simple – two players, head to head. The time commitment is minimal – draft in as little as a few minutes. It is completely free, as you know. It makes for a great little challenge mixing skill and luck to see who can come out on top picking the best performing players on the biggest football stage.

Super Bowl Party Idea

For my Super Bowl party I’m going to set up two laptops, each logged into Throwdown with two new accounts. Then as people start arriving before the game, I’ll pair them up to face off against each other for a Throwdown match. The pair of combatants has their own Throwdown to see who wins, and also by using just the two accounts they’ll form two groups, with a cumulative score to see which side wins.

Yes, we’ll still have a squares board and my annual Super Bowl Quiz, but this should add a fun fantasy football twist to the event. Feel free to use this idea for your get togethers on Sunday! Hmm… maybe I’ll cover my keyboard with plastic wrap, to protect from spills.

If you want to show your friends what to expect from a Throwdown draft, here is one I drafted last week against the current number one ranked player from our NFL Playoffs Tourney, Scott Kuff:

Mike vs. Scott Kuff, Super Bowl Throwdown

NFL Playoffs Tournament

Speaking of our NFL Playoffs Tourney, I know most of us took things slow last week with our final round Super Bowl matches, but now… its… Super Bowl Week! Get in there and get your matches done. It is very unlikely any new injury info is going to come our way between now and Sunday, so don’t wait to the last minute or your opponent may not be available to finish. Make your pick(s) if you’re up, and use the pre-draft feature.

Have a great week! Thanks as always for supporting Fantasy Throwdown, and enjoy the big game!

Reads Listens Views 1/25/2013: Sr. Bowl

My best three skill players at the Senior Bowl? Markus Wheaton, Quinton Patton, and Tyler Wilson would have earned my votes. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.
My best three skill players at the Senior Bowl? Markus Wheaton, Quinton Patton, and Tyler Wilson would have earned my votes. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.

Thanks

Its always good to get new followers at the blog and on Twitter and there are a lot of new readers, thanks to the Senior Bowl coverage here, at Football Outsiders, and the New York Times. Special thanks to Jene Bramel and Cecil Lammey for their work this week, as well as the various folks I follow on Twitter who also sent readers our way. If you’re new to the RSP blog here are some links that I think will help you learn what you’ll get here:

  • 2013 NFL  Draft Analysis – This link as a running collection of analysis I’ve written – including Sr. Bowl coverage.
  • 2013 NFL Draft Analysis – Just like above, but for 2012.
  • What is the RSP? – New to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio? I have an annual publication that is available for download April 1 and available for prepayment now. This is why folks come here.

Every Friday, I post links to football and non-football reads as well as links to photos, music, and videos that catch my eye while I’m surfing. This week will have a more decided Sr. Bowl theme. If you’re new, I suggest you follow the blog and either signup for email notifications for content or add to your RSS Feed. And thanks to my loyal readers for the views, the feedback, and those who demanded I offer a prepayment option for the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. 

Football Reads

  • Daniel Jeremiah’s Quick Hits on the Sr. BowlThe former Eagles and Browns scout liked Desmond Trufant, who we saw talk a good game and get beat on occasion by the better receivers at practice. However, CBS analyst Rob Rang is in Huskies country and he shared with us that he reserved judgment on Trufant this year because the Washington defense lacked a pass rush and forced the corner into unrealistic coverage situations deep. Rang likes what he saw of Trufant in practice and like Jeremiah is more confident. Bramel had some questions about Trufant’s hips, but also saw good things even if his analysis was a more critical. I also think the take that scouts were “intoxicated” by Marquise Goodwin’s speed is a dead-on assessment. Read into it a little more and I think intoxicated or hypnotized is a good word for a player who I think fits along the stylistic spectrum of Jacoby Ford, but hasn’t improved his ability to work off the jam and maintain good form and function as a route runner on a consistent basis since studying him last year. Here are my two takes of Goodwin (Part I and Part II)
  • Russ Lande’s Risers: I disagree with the Chris Harper assessment, especially as one being on top of the action every day he was out there. I’d characterize his performance as a mixed bag. However, I do agree with the rest of the skill player assessments – especially Vance McDonald.
  • Doug Farrar’s Take on E.J. Manuel – I think Doug makes some good arguments as to why Manuel not only has the highest upside of the quarterbacks here, but also a higher floor than many anticipate. Tyler Wilson is still my favorite QB in this class, but I saw enough from Manuel on film to buy into Farrar’s take.
  • Ryan Riddle’s Five NFL Draft Prospects Most Likely to Be Overdrafted – I dislike slideshows, but this one is worth it.

Listens & Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/eU7liIhY_m8]

More to Live For – This documentary profiles one of my favorite musicians, multi-Grammy winner Michael Brecker – who appeared on over 800 albums in his lifetime. Brecker died from a disease that required a matching blood marrow donor. The film highlights Brecker, a music executive, and Nigerian athlete who all had more to live for but blood marrow donations are still needed the way we give blood.

Non-Football Reads

 

How I Would Change The Senior Bowl

Tom Moore, Senior Bowl Coach Emeritus. Has a ring to it. Learn why the Senior Bowl should become a lyceum for coaching. Photo by Ringfrenzy
Tom Moore, Senior Bowl Coach Emeritus. Has a ring to it. Learn why the Senior Bowl should become a lyceum for coaching. Photo by Ringfrenzy

I’ll have practice observations from Day Three coming soon, but first I want to share what I would do to take the Senior Bowl into the 21st century if given the power to make major changes. The benefits would far outweigh the costs – especially in a league in its golden age making money hand over first.

Phil Savage is doing a lot to create an infrastructure that will address the minor flaws of the Senior Bowl experience. There is more organization with team interviews at the team hotels. There’s a greater level of separation among NFL team representatives, media, and fans. He has even gotten the NFL to allow fourth-year juniors with degrees to participate – a first. And as I’ve mentioned a couple of times this week, Savage wants the NFL more involved in scouting players it wants to invite to the game as well as encouraging prospects to accept the invitation.

The new director of the Senior Bowl understands that there isn’t much incentive for the highest profile seniors to attend the event. If I were an agent for Geno Smith, Tyler Eifert, or Tavon Austin, I wouldn’t recommend them to accept an invitation. It is common knowledge that 90 percent of the on-field portion of player scouting has already been done by now, why risk an injury before the NFL Combine? At present, the Combine and pro days have a greater perceived impact on a prospect’s draft stock and the prep time to “game” these pseudo-football drills is of precious value to a prospect. A player with a minor or nagging injury has more to lose exacerbating the injury or underwhelming observers at the Senior Bowl than skipping the event altogether.

I can appreciate what Savage is doing to tighten up the event even if what he is tackling is low-hanging fruit. However, he’ll have to make bigger changes if he wants to cut the 25 percent turn-down rate among first-invites to 10-12 percent. Savage and the Senior Bowl staff encouraged NFL team representatives multiple times this week to give feedback on how to make the event better.

If I were a high-ranking official of an NFL team and what I perceive as an outsider looking in is accurate, then I have a number of big changes that I would make to transform the Senior Bowl into a sterling, must-attend event that even the agents of the crème de la crème would have to encourage their clients to go. These are big-picture moves that would make scouting this game easier, enhance the image of the game and the NFL, begin to prepare the players for professional football both on and off the field, and ultimately increase the brand of the Senior Bowl to its customers and sponsors.

Hire Full-Time Coaching Staffs

I recognize the appeal of NFL staffs coaching the Senior Bowl rosters. The perception is that these teams offer players a wealth of football experience, cutting-edge teaching techniques, and it’s all backed by prestige of the NFL shield. This is my fourth year here and I don’t buy it.

The differences in quality and methodology among coaching staffs across the league are vast. Northern Illinois running back Chad Spann spent time with the Colts, Buccaneers, and Steelers during the 2011 season. The structure, the attention to teaching, and the culture of the teams all differed. It’s the same when watching the Lions run a practice compared to the Raiders, Bills, Dolphins, Bengals, or Vikings. The basic intent of some drills may be similar, but the methods, the pace, and the feedback are often worlds apart. Although there where good things I learned from the Raiders wide receiver drills, I would have felt cheated as a Senior Bowl receiver if I saw what the Lions staff did with its players.

One of the major changes I’d make is to ask the NFL to create a budget for a coaching staff with two head coaches and a full complement of assistants. The staff would assist Savage in scouting and selecting players for the event. Since there is only one game for the Senior Bowl coaches every year, the Senior Bowl committee could create programs where these coaches could hold seminars or panels for college and pro coaches to exchange ideas during the offseason. The Senior Bowl could become an incubator for coaching innovation – as my friend Sigmund Bloom would call a “Lyceum for football coaches.”

This job could have a lot of appeal for some of the great coaches of the game who may no longer wish to travel or have the same killer schedule as an NFL team, but still have something great to offer to the game as a professor emeritus of coaching. They could do consulting for NFL teams. Imagine Howard Mudd, Tom Moore, or Tony Dungy as assistant or head coaches-in-residence. The league could even have an NFL scouting school and these graduates or teachers are part of the ground-floor process of narrowing down players to invite for the game. There are a ton of far-reaching innovations from this idea that could prove lucrative for the Senior Bowl and provide long-term benefit to the NFL.

The best value of a change like this one for teams, scouts, and media is that I would require these coaches to agree upon the same drills to run prospects through their paces during Senior Bowl Week. The order, location, and execution of the drills would all be uniform. This would be easier for teams to know where to station its scouts, help the planning committee organize the viewing experience, and most important, make it easier to see how players performed relative to each other.

Add 3-5 Days to the Event

If the Senior Bowl were 10-14 days in length, the event could then become the place where the NFL has its rookie symposium. Although many of these rookies won’t make the NFL, several of them will play professional football of some sort in the CFL or Arena League. Helping these prospects become aware of the pitfalls a professional football life on and off the field can never start too early – especially during a time where players are shopping for agents, financial advisors, and are targeted to accept loans before they even see contracts. Make the Senior Bowl seminars a voice of proactive sanity.

Another benefit of extending the event is that the Senior Bowl should increase its invitation list and add another 22-44 prospects as “taxi squad” invites. They’ll attend the symposiums, study the playbooks, and have the opportunity to meet with teams, but they won’t practice unless a player from an active roster gets hurt or drops out. The additional roster spots give the bubble players a better chance to be prepared than flown down the day of practice and fitted into pads on the field while a coach is giving them a crash course of the practice schedule or scheme. This would reduce the number of players turning down the event and it would also alter the perception that the Senior Bowl is always scrambling at the last minute to fill its rosters.

Make the Mobile the “Official NFL Convention”

If the Senior Bowl could hire full-time coaches, create a coaching institute and farm out consulting, institute a scouting school, and host the Rookie Symposium, the Senior Bowl would no longer be the “Unofficial NFL Convention.” Mobile would become a hub where old and new exchange ideas, players make career transitions to scouts and coaches, and college prospects get top-notch coaching and exposure to wisdom on and off the field to prepare them for the profession. This type of investment would be good for the NFL on so many levels, I can’t see a downside. Can you?

The Rookie Scouting Portfolio Publication: A Q&A

New to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog? Haven’t heard of the RSP publication? Heard of it, but haven’t given it a try? Learn more about this annual publication that has been available for download every April 1 for the past seven years and why it has become a fave among draftniks and fantasy football owners.

BTW – Best pre-draft scouting report on every conceivable guy [at the skills positions] is by @MattWaldman. Very good read – mattwaldman.com

Chris Brown, author of Smartfootball.com and Grantland contributor, via Twitter

Q: What is the purpose of the RSP?

The RSP isn’t a draft-prediction publication, it’s an analysis of talent based on a player performance on the field.  This can help draftniks learn more about the talent of players without worrying about the machinations of the draft that are often an entirely different animal from talent evaluation. The evaluation techniques for the RSP are designed to target a player’s athletic skills, positional techniques, and conceptual understanding of the game. It also makes a great resource for fantasy football players.

Q: What makes the RSP different from other draft analysis?

I use an extensively documented process and I make the work available for the reader to see – although I don’t send them through a forced death march through the material. As a reader, you don’t have to feel the pain I had writing it – the masochism is provided at your convenience.

Still, the process is important to talk about. It has helped me arrive at high pre-draft grades for many underrated players, including Russell Wilson, Matt Forte, Ahmad Bradshaw, Dennis Pitta, Arian Foster and Joseph Addai. Where it really makes a difference is when I’m studying a player in a game where the competition limits a player’s statistical success and I’m still able to see the talent shine through. Likewise, this process has helped me spot critical issues with players like Stephen Hill, Isaiah Pead, Matt Leinart, Robert Meachem, and C.J. Spiller when others anticipated an early, and often immediate, impact.  

Q: The RSP is huge, but you say it is easy to read and navigate. How is it structure? Is it iPad-friendly?

The easiest way to describe the RSP is that it’s an online publication with two main parts:

  • The front part most people read, which is the same length of any draft magazine you see at the newsstand.
  • The back part that my craziest, most devoted, and masochistic readers check out – all the play-by-play analysis of every player I watch.

The RSP has a menu that allows you to jump to various parts of the publication so the crazy detail in the back doesn’t swallow you whole and you never return to reality. I continue to provide the back part because many of my readers love to know that I back up my analysis with painstaking work. In that sense they are also sadists, but being the ultimate masochist that I am – I appreciate their sadism.

“The GoodReader app takes anything I want to read in PDF form, presents it very nicely, and makes the document portable and enjoyable. The encyclopedia that you’ve created (which I absolutely love 25% into it) would require someone to peer into his or her computer/laptop screen for a very long time. On an iPad inside that app it bookmarks your place and makes reading long files a joy…AND PORTABLE.”

-Ray Calder

Q: How is The Rookie Scouting Portfolio rooted in best practices?

I managed a large branch of a call center and eventually had responsibility for the performance evaluation of over 70 call centers around the U.S. I began my career from the bottom-up. I was heavily involved in recruiting, hiring, training, and developing large and small teams of employees.I often had to build large teams that competed with a client’s internal call enter and with a fraction of the budget to train and develop in terms of time and money.

We beat them consistently.

One of the biggest reasons was a focus on instituting quality processes. We figured out what was important to us, how to prioritize it’s importance, and how to evaluate our employs in a fair, consistent, and flexible manner to spot the good and bad. Eventually, my company sent me to an organization that provided training for best-practice performance techniques that successful Fortune 500 businesses tailored to their service and manufacturing sectors.

The most important thing I learned that applies to the RSP is best practices for monitoring performance. Although the original purpose for my training was to monitor representatives talking with customers over the phone, these techniques also made sense to apply to personnel evaluation in other ways. Football is one of them.

Think the NFL couldn’t use a best-practice approach? Read about its current evaluation system and what former scouts have to say about the management of that process and you’ll think differently. The RSP approach makes the evaluation process transparent to the reader and helps the author deliver quality analysis.

Another “best practice” I’m implementing in 2012 is “giving back.” Ten percent of each sale in 2012 is going to charity.

Q: What do readers think of the RSP?

I collect these emails like one of my favorite pizza joints in Colorado collects napkin drawings from customers and places them all over the walls of its restaurant. If you have one you want to send me, please feel free. I’ll add them my list. Here are some of them below:

“If you don’t buy the RSP, be prepared to get dominated in your rookie draft by someone that did.”

– Jarrett Behar, Staff writer for Dynasty League Football and creator of Race to the Bottom.

“In complete awe of the 2007 Rookie Scouting Portfolio via @MattWaldman — Incredibly in-depth analysis that required time & football smarts”

– Ryan Lownes, NFL Draft analyst, writer or DraftBreakdown.com.

“Any diehard #Dynasty #fantasyfootball fan should go get @MattWaldman’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio bit.ly/I4fOa2 You’ll thank me later”

-@JamesFFB NFL Draft analyst, enthusiast, and writer for DraftBreakdown.com and Bleacher Report.

“For someone like me who doesn’t closely follow the college game, there is nothing I have found even vaguely measuring up to your thoroughness and point by point analysis of the draftable rookies. Among my favorite things is that at the core you rely on play rather than comparing stats produced or combine numbers. Measurables I can get anywhere, but numbers offer little perspective on what they mean or what factors together created them. I want to know what a guy looks like out there, who plays fast – rather than who runs fast in shorts with no one to dodge or avoid. Which WRs can and can’t run routes or consistently get separation or catch with their hands or fight off defenders to make contested catches. Your exhaustive package gives me a basis to work from including a careful look at every significant player. I can read and add the views and comments and stats I want to like ornaments on the Christmas tree – where that tree is the foundation of player abilities that you weave together into a ranked whole.

I have no way to know how right or wrong your conclusions are. You certainly don’t shy away from controversial evaluations. But overall, for just plain understanding of who the rookies are, how they play and what we might expect in the NFL – I don’t know of anything close. After reading this tome, I would feel blind and naked walking into a rookie draft next year without having that insight. My huge thanks!”

Catbird, Footballguys.com message boards

“Love your work. I’ve subscribed to your RSP for the past 3 years and it is my bible for dynasty league rookie drafts.”

– David Liu

“In our business, we are able to access many different types of reference materials. The Rookie Scouting Portfolio stands above the rest for one simple fact: it is more comprehensive than anything else I have seen. Matt Waldman is head and shoulders the best fantasy football expert I have had on the air, and his expertise starts well before the players get to the NFL with analysis and game film study of the incoming rookie class. I can’t recommend the RSP highly enough.”

– Ian Furness
Host, Sports Radio 950 KJR
Seattle, WA

“All I can really say at first is “Wow!” There is just a TON of great and useful information packed into that report. I thought I’d give it a quick glance during my lunch hour and I found myself reading quite a bit of it over the next 2 hours. I like the way everything is laid out. It’s easy to understand and covers all the items necessary to make it a top notch scouting report for the fantasy footballer.

– Tim Huckaby

“IMHO this is a MUST read. Matt really does the work and tells it the way he sees it. Had a couple of GREAT picks this year with Austin Collie and and I think Stafford. In prior years, he has lead me to Ray Rice in a PPR no less and Mike Sims Walker… If you are like me in a Zealots league, go back and read the prior years as it helps with the RFA/UFA process.”

– Tony Madeira

Hey Matt,

Just thought you would want to know that I enjoyed the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio so much that I had to buy the other six years, to see what you had to say about previous players. I’ve been playing fantasy football for over 20 years (started at age 11) and I can’t tell you how refreshing it is to see someone put this much effort into analyzing prospects skills, and then filtering that info back to their potential fantasy value.

Not sure if you have a running testimonial page but if your ever inclined to do so, feel free to use this email as one, if you wish.

Not trying to kiss your butt or anything but your work is really an inspiration for someone like myself.

Thank you for your efforts,

Sean Douglas, FantasyInfo.com’

Download the 2012 RSP or purchase past issues (2006-2011)