Category Players

Senior Bowl: Day Two Skill Player Notables

0 Comments read Players, Quarterback, Running Back, Tight End, Wide Receiver

Day Two of the Senior Bowl was packed with observations from both practices. This morning’s report covers wide receivers, quarterbacks, running backs, and tight ends. There are also some thoughts about drills and the Senior Bowl selection process.

A Senior Bowl tradition worth keeping is a writing roundtable at The Brick Pit. We'll have our own below. BYOB(BQ). Photo by MRak75.
A Senior Bowl tradition worth keeping is a writers roundtable at The Brick Pit. We’ll have our own below. BYOB(BQ). Photo by MRak75.

Plenty of highlights today, most notably a football roundtable with Rotoworld’s Josh Norris, CBS’s Rob Rang, Football Outsiders-Fifth Down contributor Andy Benoit, Yahoo!-Outsider’s alum Doug Farrar, and Footballguys-RSP guest writer Jene Bramel. The conversation was better than the barbeque and the `cue was no slouch. If you aren’t reading these guys, then you probably aren’t looking at this page. If you’re one of the lone exceptions, I highly recommend you start checking out their work.

Quick Thoughts

The more I watch pass protection drills between backs and linebackers the less I’m impressed by the design of these exercises. I have no coaching experience, but it fascinates me that teams don’t employ more diagnostic elements into the drills – especially for the pass protectors. Why not have a 3 (defenders)-on-1 (blocker) drill where the blocker has two or three possible options he has to read before the snap and then get into position after the snap to execute the assignment? At this point, I watch running backs in these traditional drills and often the only thing they really learn is to game the system of the drill rather than develop real pass protection skills.

The Senior Bowl has a tradition of inviting at least two players from a prominent Alabama institution. This year I believe the two players were Auburn back/return specialist Onterrio McCalebb and Alabama eight end Michael Williams. Both players have the skills to be in Mobile this week, but there have been times I thought some of the past players were a gesture of goodwill to attract in-state interest. From a marketing standpoint I get it. However, the changes Phil Savage is instituting with the structure of the week, scouting players, decreasing the turn-down rate of initial invitees, and even the limitations of field access to the general media to give the NFL Network room to roam, indicates that the Senior Bowl wants to increase its national prominence. Right now, having Alabama and Auburn players is often a no-brainer, but Alabama football doesn’t need to be thrown a bone to get here and one day this practice might prevent more deserving talents from participating.

North Squad Receivers

The Raiders dispensed with a few of Day 1’s drills and went right to the 5×10 cone drill versus cornerbacks. Today, the corners gained the upper hand and were far more successful with knocking the receivers outside the five-yard-wide boundary before they reached the second set of cones 10 yards down field. Unlike yesterday, no receiver from the North squad dominated this exercise against press.  However, some of these receivers who struggled in this drill turned the tables in scrimmages or one-on-one matchups.

Markus Wheaton: Wheaton had initial trouble getting on top of the defender with his first two reps in the cone drill. He also was a little rough through his breaks on an out-and-up, but earned separation with his speed up the boundary. Unlike several of the receivers on either squad, Wheaton has a knack for getting position on a defender after his break. He made a nice catch on a slant, got strong position on a hook after his break, and for the second time in two days, displayed good technique on a deep fade where he caught the ball over his shoulder at the boundary. On five-on-sevens, Wheaton engaged in some trash talking with Washington corner Desmond Trufant, who asked the coaches to allow him to cut in line and take on the receiver. Wheaton promptly spanked Trufant on a deep streak up the right sideline with a nice move early in the route to slide outside and then buy position. Mike Glennon made the deep throw, hitting Wheaton in stride.

Marquise Goodwin: Goodwin began the 5×10 cone drill with some success. When he can use his quickness to avoid the reach of a corner, he wins easily. However, the Longhorns receiver progressively allowed defenders to get the best of him with each rep because he didn’t flash the coordination or strength to keep hands off his body. Once the corners jammed Goodwin, he could never shake them from a position over the top and they rode the receiver down field. One thing Wheaton does well that Goodwin has to learn is to duck through contact. Goodwin gets too upright and presents a great target for his opponent. In the scrimmage parts of practice, Goodwin was up and down. He ran a nice curl and then a good out. Speed is sometimes a wonderful eraser of bad technique – he failed to execute a swim move against press but managed to  a sharp turn under the defender and get separation on an out. He still has to learn how to generate good position after his breaks. He was undercut on one target and then got open on a cross only to drop a good pass from Ryan Nassib.

Chris Harper: Harper got tied up on all three of his reps in the 5×10 cone drill. On two of the three reps, he managed to work free after an initial struggle, but the third rep was a complete failure – but he was far from the only receiver to have a failed rep in this morning’s drill. In scrimmage situations or one-on-ones, Harper looks good in the first half of his routes and will fight for the ball after his break, but actual breaks need improvement. I don’t see the speed to win the ball at the end of vertical routes and I’m not as impressed with him as some of my compatriots this week. I don’t know if anyone is comparing him with Juron Criner due to his build, but I’d much rather have Criner.

Aaron Mellette:  The receiver from Elon struggled yesterday in drills, but he improved today. Mellette won his matchups in two of his three reps in this 5×10 cone drill. Although he encountered some resistance that he couldn’t beat immediately on the third rep, he eventually got on top of the defender. It was good to see him make progress from one day to the next. I’m looking forward to seeing if that progress continues on Wednesday. He carried over that ability to gain separation into one-on-one’s, but dropped multiple passes. He managed to get deep at the one of the one-on-one portion. Unlike Brian Quick last year, there’s more football savvy to the way Mellette uses his body.  He also did a good job working back to the football today. Perhaps he has a fighting chance to develop into an NFL contributor. The athleticism is there.

Aaron Dobson: I love Dobson’s ability to adjust to the football with a defender on him, but he still needs to improve his techniques off the line of scrimmage. He had one bad rep, improved upon it with the next turn, and then failed to get separation on the third rep. He’s at his best when he’s a little more physical with the corners. The finesse moves just aren’t working for him right now. In one-on-one’s he got a quick release early and once again did a nice job of adjusting to the football just like he flashed on Monday. He didn’t see a lot of targets on five-on-seven or 11-on-11s today.

Denard Robinson: Robinson continues to wear the yellow, no-contact jersey and today the biggest takeaway was the amount of extra attention the Raiders receiver coach spent on the Michigan athlete’s stride. Robinson dropped several passes today in drills and one-on-ones. Still, there was a reminder of what Robinson could do if he can assimilate the techniques of playing receiver. The rep was an out-and-up versus a corner playing off-man technique. Robinson slipped during his initial out-cut, but his athleticism clicked into gear and he managed to stay upright and turn the corner on the defensive back swooping in for the kill on the initial break. Robinson shot up the sideline and beat the defender handily for a long play. It was an example of how athleticism can erase errors. Just understand that the eraser isn’t nearly as large at the NFL level.

Alec Lemon: Lemon was a late substitute for the North Squad. The Syracuse receiver made a sneaky-good impression today. Despite failing to win any rep in 5×10 cone drills versus the defensive backs, when Lemon was asked to run routes, he turned lemons into…okay, I won’t go there. Lemon demonstrated the savvy to turn a defender’s jam into his favor, consistently getting late separation and making catch after catch in tight quarters. He was smooth, in control, and unfazed by decent coverage.  I still have questions about his athleticism for the NFL level, but I he did a good job today.

South Practice Wide Receivers

Ryan Swope was on the sideline today and the Lions practice was far more equipment-focused for receivers than the Raiders. This was the case when they were here a couple of years ago. Detroit’s drills were different than the last time the team coached here. The staff employed trash cans and blocking dummies to emphasize angles of breaks and control with turns. The coaches used the dummies to emphasis intensity with strikes during the release phase of routes. If I were to compare the staffs, the Raiders focused more on releases during their drills and the Lions emphasized breaks. If I were a receiver at the Senior Bowl I felt the Lions staff had a more comprehensive approach to coaching the receivers on the field.

Quinton Patton: The receiver from Louisiana Tech was one of those cases where I saw more from him in practice than I saw from him in his games. Patton was really quick running through the gauntlet of cans and made tight turns on breaks. He practices fast.  In one-on-one’s Patton made a tough catch on a deep streak up the right sideline, fighting through contact late in the route. The defensive back pushed Patton late and the receiver managed to control his balance enough to get additional separation as he turned back to the ball and made the catch while falling backwards, losing his helmet in the process – one of the most impressive athletic displays among the receivers this week. Patton earned praise form the coaching staff in scrimmages for working back to the football and taking good position on a slant. He also was the on the receiving end of the most impressive throw I saw today (from Tyler Wilson – more on that later), catching a dig in stride.

Cobi Hamilton: Hamilton’s play wasn’t as consistent as Patton’s, but he had noticeable bright moments in practice. He has sharp with his breaks during drills, which earned him praise for improving during his reps. He dropped a dig route in 11-on-11 drills because he waited for the ball to arrive. He failed to extend his arms to the ball a few times on catchable passes and it’s a habit I’d like to see him address. One thing he did well was work back to the quarterback. If he can do a better job extending his arms, he’ll make more plays – especially in the face of contact. Hamilton blew by a corner on one deep target, but he failed to make the proper adjustment to the ball. Hamilton’s NFL athleticism is easy to see, but he needs to address the details of his craft or he’ll tease an NFL team. Think Mohammed Massoquoi or Reggie Brown.

Conner Vernon: The Duke receiver earned praise for his tight turns in drills, especially the angle of his breaks. Although he didn’t achieve strong separation versus man coverage, he was often in good position to make a play on the football. Vernon dropped two passes after encountering contact from tight coverage. He did make a nice catch at the sideline on an out after he was pushed in the chest while airborne to make the reception of an E.J. Manuel pass in 11-on-11 drills. It was too quick to call whether he was inbounds, but the effort was good. Vernon, like Alec Lemon, has to make up for his lack of top-end speed by catching everything in sight versus tight coverage. He didn’t do it today.

Terrance Williams: Williams had an up and down day. During route drills, he’d have a strong rep followed by a weaker one. When he put it all together on a rep, he drew a lot of encouragement from the Lions staff. You can see flashes of a pro receiver when those moments of technique and athleticism converge. It didn’t happen often enough today. Williams failed to get position or come back to the football in scrimmages and dropped a pass after contact from a defender. Like Hamilton, he’s an NFL athlete but not yet an NFL receiver.

Tavarres King: King wasn’t as athletic as Patton, Hamilton, or Williams, but he was more consistent than the last two. I liked his ability to break on the ball and he had a route up the left sideline where he told a good story with a couple of fluid moves to set up his break back to the quarterback at the left sideline in tight coverage. One of the better catches of the day was a dig route where he had to make a strong extension on a pass at shoulder level well away from his body, displaying the ability to “play long.” He had one drop on a low, but catchable throw during five-on-sevens with Landry Jones at quarterback.

North and South Squad Running Backs

Oregon running back Kenjon Barner has his fans here. Doug Farrar and Josh Norris believe he's a better prospect than LaMichael James. Photo by Wade Rackley.
Oregon running back Kenjon Barner has his fans here. Doug Farrar and Josh Norris believe he’s a better prospect than LaMichael James. Photo by Wade Rackley.

The only notable observations I have of North running backs came from pass protection drills. Before I give my takes on each player, I think it’s important to state that diagnosis is a key component of pass protection that these drills did not simulate. Personally, I’d love to see drills that send multiple defenders off an edge or flash three potential blitz types pre snap and force the running back to make a read based on what he sees from the opposition. This would tell me more than many of the drills I see in practices like these. I did see some runs in 11-on-11s from the South squad backs – worth noting, but nothing new from what I’ve seen from them this year in real games.

Kenjon Barner: Quickness abounds with Barner and I liked his ability to get into position and square-up the defender. He doesn’t deliver a punch and this is a key component to good pass protection. Otherwise, the blocker is more passive than active and he’s likely to be controlled rather than control.

Johnathan Franklin: Franklin got into position and stood his ground against pressure coming down hill at a good pace, but like Barner, he didn’t deliver a punch. Unlike the Oregon back, Franklin was just big enough and demonstrated good enough technique to anchor his legs and hold his ground on more of these reps. Once, again, it comes down to Franklin learning to punch.

Mike Gillislee: The Florida runner got duped on swim moves multiple times in running back versus linebacker pass protection drills. He’s quick enough and will punch and turn a defender if he gets good position, but he can telegraph his intentions. In 11-on-11’s he flashed his quick feet, side-stepping penetration up the middle to slip to an open lane off left guard for a nice gain. He caught the ball well on swing passes and he’s a player who should grow into a contributor. The better he gets at pass protection, the bigger the contributor he can be.

Stepfan Taylor: I profiled Taylor before the Senior Bowl, praising his leverage as a runner. He’s always running in a crouched position that gives him an advantage versus impending contact. He’s the most decisive, physical runner on Mobile this week. As much as I like Johnathan Franklin’s smarts and versatility, I think Taylor is the most NFL-ready of the Senior Bowl backs. I’d like to see him do a better job of delivering a punch in pass drills, but he also has the size to anchor against linebackers. It’s important to note that Taylor won’t get away with “catching” defenders in the NFL like he has in drills here. He has to shore up this deficiency.

North Squad Quarterbacks

According to former NC State Head Coach Tom O'Brien, Mike Glennon was the guy burning a hole in the bench behind Russell Wilson. Perhaps if his play involved matches, because he's not setting the Senior Bowl on fire. Photo by Football Schedule.
According to former NC State Head Coach Tom O’Brien, Mike Glennon was the guy burning a hole in the bench behind Russell Wilson. Perhaps if his play involved matches, because he’s not setting the Senior Bowl on fire. Photo by Football Schedule.

None of these quarterbacks pique my interest. I can offer a logical explanation as to why each one will succeed or fail at the next level, but there are far more possibilities why they won’t make a successful transition than I see from recent quarterback classes. The scrimmage drills highlighted more flaws than strengths for this North depth chart.

Zac Dysert: The Miami, Ohio quarterback is the most aggressive of the trio, but also the most reckless. He stares down his primary receiver too often – he threw an interception on an out doing exactly what I described. He’s the only quarterback I’ve seen on either roster attempt a shoulder fake to bait a defender down field. Dysert also floated the ball down field a couple of times on targets where I think more velocity was required for the pass to reach its receiver on-time. One his deep outs also sailed too high with too much air under the ball. I haven’t seen him really drive the ball yet.

Mike Glennon: The N.C. State quarterback got to show off a pretty deep arm on a sideline fade to Markus Wheaton in five-on-seven drills. He also stuck a slant to Chris Harper in traffic that drew an ooh from the crowd in 11-on-11s. This is Glennon’s appeal: big arm and tall frame to see over the defense without getting on his toes. To be nice, he’s everything Russell Wilson isn’t. To be accurate, everything is only one thing: tall.

Ryan Nassib: Optimum Scouting writer Eric Galko asked me what I thought about Nassib. I can see the case for him developing into an NFL starter one day, but I have reservations about his arm strength. I don’t put a ton of weight into arm strength when it comes to evaluating quarterbacks. But if arm strength is missing from a quarterback’s game there have to compensatory factors that mitigate its absence: mobility, great anticipation, or hyper-accuracy. Nassib doesn’t have great arm strength, but I was encouraged to see an opposite hash throw where he drilled the ball to his receiver. However, his deep throws continue to lack either anticipation or distance and velocity. More anticipation would lessen the need for the other two qualities, but at this point he’s forced to try deep throws without this enhanced timing and he isn’t hitting the mark on time. Some of the plays I enjoyed most today where seam routes Nassib dropped into tight ends with excellent placement – even those his tight end’s dropped. He is clearly the best of the North trio of passers and probably the safest quarterback prospect in Mobile. It still doesn’t mean I would touch him in the first three rounds of the draft. I don’t care what the need is for a quarterback, if I have to pay him franchise money or show franchise patience then I’m throwing away two to three years and a shot at a better option. I think he’s a better prospect in theory than on the field.

South Quarterbacks

E.J. Manuel: Physically, he’s everything you want from a quarterback. Fundamentally, he needs work with his throwing motion and decision making. He can make every throw, but he has to learn better judgment. In scrimmages, he wasn’t pressed into a situation where he had to make a throw any more demanding than an out. The game is going to be the time where Manuel likely flashes the best and worst attributes. Stay tuned.

Landry Jones: He threw a nice swing pass to his full back early and got some help on a sliding catch of a crossing route by Cobi Hamilton in five-on-sevens. He was a little too wide for his receiver Tavarres King on an out, but King should have caught the ball inbounds despite the tight margin of error when not necessary. He did hit Terrance Williams on the move and the receiver worked back to the ball for once.

Tyler Wilson: He threw a pass intended for Mychal Rivera that was placed too far inside and the linebacker over top cut off the throw, tipping it, and a teammate made the interception. This was one of a few players where Wilson wasn’t especially sharp but didn’t get much help from his teammates, either. But here’s the kicker:  After this bad play, Wilson comes back and drills Quinton Patton on a dig route in stride with a laser beam while a defender is bearing down on Wilson from an already constricted pocket – the best throw of the week thus far. This aggressive, resilient nature is what separates Wilson from every quarterback in this class – junior or senior. This wasn’t the only good throw of the day from Wilson. He found Vance McDonald on a seam route 15-20 yards down field with good placement to the tight end’s back shoulder. Scott Linehan also praised Wilson for three quick reads in succession ending with a strong decision to hit Conner Vernon on a crossing route. He’s the only quarterback here I’d draft in the first three rounds and feel I got my money’s worth.

Tight Ends

Jack Doyle: The Western Kentucky prospect dropped multiple passes in five-on-seven and 11-on-11s today. There was a sequence where he dropped two in a row. He’s just fast enough to get down the seam and demonstrates just enough fluid athleticism to reach for a throw over his head or to his back shoulder. What he hasn’t done is hold onto the ball after contact or secures the ball on these adjustments. The Ravens Dennis Pitta is a great example of a less than stellar athlete with great ball skills and smarts in zone. Doyle is proving that he lacks the consistency to earn this kind of comparison.

Nick Kasa: The big Colorado tight end has been the best receiver and blocker of the North’s depth chart. He’s just fast enough to work the seam and big enough to get physical when needed. He catches the ball without fanfare and he’ll rumble through the open field for a bit if a defender isn’t disciplined with his tackling technique. He’s not an exciting prospect for the average fan, but as my colleague Josh Norris or Rob Ryan would say, Kasa will have a chance to playing the league for a while.

Michael Williams: Alabama’s tight end can block and he has soft hands. He’s a big, slow earth mover who welcomes contact from defenders in order to create separation as a receiver. As Doug Farrar and Josh Norris said tonight at dinner, he’ll have a long career as a No.3 tight end in the NFL.

Mychal Rivera: The Tennessee tight end is the smallest tight end in Mobile, but he’s one of the most athletic. He makes plays between defenders, extends well for the football and can make a move after the catch to create space. I didn’t get to see much from him as a blocker, but he projects as an H-Back.

Vance McDonald: One of the better catches of the day came from McDonald, who beat a safety with a nice move during his stem and then took the correct angle down field as he bent the route just enough to the outside to gain separation and run under a deep fade towards the pylon, making the catch with his hands over his inside shoulder in full gallop. He’s fluid like a wide receiver and because he’s so well put together as an athlete he doesn’t strike me as a 260-pound player. In terms of players with potential to be a consistent mismatch on every down, McDonald is the only tight end in this game that fits this description.

For more analysis of skill players, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Ezekiel Ansah: Next Man Up in the Potential vs Polish Debate

0 Comments read Players
BYU DE Ezekiel Ansah is garnering Jason Pierre-Paul comparisons on social media. Jene Bramel says not so fast. Photo by Mike Morbeck.
BYU DE Ezekiel Ansah is garnering Jason Pierre-Paul comparisons on social media. Jene Bramel says not so fast. Photo by Mike Morbeck.

The scouting community and NFL player personnel departments love potential. It’s easy to project a player with elite combination of size and athleticism to future stardom. But the gap between potential and production is not trivial in the NFL. Jene Bramel explores this potential versus polish debate through the lens of defensive end Ezekiel Ansah

By Jene Bramel

Ezekiel Ansah is the latest prospect to spark a “potential vs. polish” scouting debate. Listed at 6’6”, 270 pounds, Ansah burst onto the college football scene this year with an athletic style of play that prompted comparisons to Jason Pierre-Paul. In the days leading up to the Senior Bowl, some were suggested that Ansah could be considered in the top half of the first round with a strong performance in pre-draft evaluations.

Such is the ebb and flow of evaluating draft prospects in January. That isn’t to say that Ansah won’t prove worthy of a mid-first round (or better) draft slot by the end of April, but there are multiple reasons to suggest caution.

On tape, Ansah’s athleticism is notable. He was used in multiple roles at BYU after quickly earning more playing time at the start of the 2012 season. That versatility – he was used in a standup edge rushing role and as an interior rusher in addition to more traditional defensive end roles – and his consistent effort to the whistle is endearing to defensive coordinators who need adaptable players in the huddle. Ansah also shows an ability to use his hands to control offensive linemen when playing the run far beyond what’s normally seen in a player who has taken so few college repetitions.

But there are holes in Ansah’s game. He doesn’t show an explosive first step or consistent edge rushing talent. That hurts him against better competition. It’s been evident during Senior Bowl practices and he’ll face much better than the offensive tackles he’s facing in Mobile in the NFL. He also has a maddening habit of turning his back to the line of scrimmage when engaged by an offensive lineman on run plays.

Some of that can be corrected with coaching and further development, but it’s the lack of an elite pass rush (edge rush, bull rush or array of counter moves) and questionable football speed in small spaces that worries me. If I’m looking at a defensive end in the top half of the first round, I want to see at least one elite skill.

Athleticism and versatility are valuable, but they must translate into regular instances of dominance against college competition to warrant such a high draft pick. Scouting is far from an exact science, but it’s critical to avoid an Aaron Maybin while mining for a Jason Pierre-Paul. I think Ansah will be worthy of a late first – early second round pick come April, but it’s not time to jump on the runaway bandwagon just yet.

Senior Bowl: North Squad WRs Day 1

0 Comments read Players, Wide Receiver
Oregon State's Wheaton shined on the first day of Senior Bowl practices. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.
Oregon State Markus Wheaton shined on the first day of Senior Bowl practices. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.

Every NFL team that conducts a Senior Bowl practice has a different style and process. The Oakland Raiders began and ended with special teams and utilized a lot of scrimmaging in a variety of 1-on-1, 5-on-7, and 11-on-11 situations. The drills I tend to get the most from feature wide receivers and the Raiders practice was no different.

While many people are focused on a receiver’s ability to catch the football in these practices, what has equal if not greater importance is everything a receiver does before the ball arrives. Monday afternoon’s practice included drills to test the craft of each receiver’s ability to establish and maintain separation before the ball arrives:

  • Agility drills to emphasize footwork and hip flexibility.
  • Receiver versus corner drills with an emphasis on releases within a five-yard boundary.
  • One-on-one receiver vs. corner press-man drills with a variety of routes.

None of the receivers I saw on the North squad did anything that altered my assessment of what they have or haven’t shown in their careers. Each of these prospects displayed strengths and weaknesses that I think will ultimately come down to an NFL team’s perception of a player’s fit within the organization and how patient they are with that player to develop. Of course, most of you reading this don’t care about the long view. You want to know who looked good and who struggled.

I don’t blame you. Here’s what I saw with each of the drills listed above and then the 5-on-7 and 11-on-11 scrimmages. Remember, catching the ball in these situations is nice but slightly overrated if the rest of the form, technique, and craft is missing.

This contact takes at least 1-2 steps for Goodwin to recover. He'll have no such leeway against good defenders in the NFL.
As I wrote about last year, this contact takes at least 1-2 steps for Goodwin to recover. He’ll have no such leeway against good defenders in the NFL and he didn’t in Senior Bowl practice.

Agility Drills

Receivers ran through a set of mini cones in a footwork pattern that the coach requested, ending the exercise with a curl inside as the break on the route to catch a pass. The focus of this exercise was to demonstrate fluid hip-turn, precise footwork, quickness, and strong change of direction while keeping the head up and looking down field.

Marquise Goodwin, Texas: Goodwin is a track star with excellent speed, but it was clear from the onset that his hip flexibility needs work. The Raiders coaches gave this feedback about his hips on multiple reps and even pulled Goodwin aside to emphasize the point after his third run through the drill. Goodwin attempted to do what the Raiders staff asked, but his movements were exaggerated and lacked the refined motor movement of someone capable of picking up this technique on the fly.

Aaron Dobson, Marshall: Dobson looked good in this drill. His feet were fluid, his hip turns were sharp for a man of his size (6’2”, 203 pounds), and he demonstrated some explosion making his final break to the football. He isn’t a burner, but he acquitted himself well in this opening exercise.

Chris Harper, Kansas State: The coaching staff asked Harper to pick up his feet during the drill. The 228-pound receiver is quick for his size, but his movement could stand to get sharper. I didn’t see much improvement in subsequent reps after the coach’s feedback.

Markus Wheaton, Oregon State: Wheaton was quick, crisp, and fluid with each rep. He demonstrated quick hips and good control making turns. He also caught the ball well despite some throws that were arriving at awkward windows as he executed his break at the end of each rep.

Denard Robinson, Michigan: They key takeaway from Robinson in this drill was “intent.” Robinson’s movements were careful and intentionally slow to master the precision of the footwork and hip movement with each drill. While I thought this was admirable for a quarterback-turned-receiver, eventually the coaching staff turned up the heat and exhorted Robinson to speed up during the final reps of the exercise. Robinson caught each ball cleanly, but the position is new to him and I’ll be interested to see how much he improves with this drill between now and Wednesday.

Aaron Mellette, Elon: Mellette looked fast and his feet were pretty good, but the hips didn’t move with the alacrity you want to see. He was quick, but the precision was lacking. Mellette caught the ball well and I like the athleticism, but the raw technique on this drill was a preview for the rest of the drills in practice.

Denard Robinson is known for his speed, but naturally this new convert to wide receiver was doing everything in slow motion on Day 1 of Senior Bowl practices. Photo by Adam Glanzman.
Denard Robinson is known for his speed, but naturally this new convert to wide receiver was doing everything in slow motion on Day 1 of Senior Bowl practices. Photo by Adam Glanzman.

Four-Corner Cone Boundaries vs. Cornerbacks

Two pairs of cones demarcated a 10-yard-long x 5-yard-wide boundary. The receivers faced the corners in press-man coverage. The objective for the corners was to force the receivers outside the width of the cones before the receivers reached that 10-yard distance. Lots of hands technique to study in this drill.

Goodwin: Goodwin’s size (5’8”, 179) didn’t do him any favors in this drill. When a corner locked onto Goodwin, the receiver had difficulty working free unless he used a spin move of some type to work loose. The corners repeatedly pushed Goodwin outside the width of the boundary.

Dobson: Dobson had a lot of success with this drill and the coaches praised him for playing big. The Marshall receiver used his hands well in this drill. He often bulled through the jam, or deflected the defenders’ arms and then used his size and quickness to get on top of his opponent.

Harper: Harper got coached up after getting knocked down during his first rep and his subsequent reps incrementally improved. He performed better when he played to his size, but there were moments where he tried to be use quickness to get on top of the corner and it failed. I’ll be interested in seeing if he makes the adjustment to his natural strengths in subsequent practices.

Mellette:  Multiple defenders got the best of Mellette in this drill, but has he started to use his 216-pound frame, his reps improved to the point that he began to win some of the action. Mellette is one of those players who might tease an organization because the natural ability is there, but can he accelerate his learning curve to develop into an NFL-caliber receiver. This will be the big question.

Wheaton: Wheaton was the most fluid of the receivers in this drill. He was the best at integrating his hands and footwork, using his hands adeptly to swat away the jam and position his feet to create angles so he could accelerate past the defenders with every rep. He is the most polished receiver of the North squad and there were further illustrations of this fact later in practice.

Robinson: Once again, slow motion was the theme of Robinson’s performances in the drill. I have no notes of him winning these battles. He wasn’t pushed aside as much as held up too long and unable to get on top of the defender.

1-on-1’s, 5-on-7’s, and 11-on-11’s vs. Corners with a Variety of Routes

Dobson: I continued to notice precision and fluid movement from Dobson, who demonstrated a nice mix of physical play and quickness. I watched Dobson integrate his footwork and hands well to get open on a deep fade, but the quarterback underthrew the pass and the cornerback tipped the ball away. The one thing the coaches notice that was a repeat issue came at the end of routes as the ball arrived: Dobson had a tendency to lean back towards the ball rather than attack the ball after his break. I hope to see a more aggressive finish to his routes in subsequent practices.

Goodwin: When Goodwin got a free release, he made defenders pay with his speed. However, he had a lot of wasted, imprecise movement off the line versus quality press coverage. I want to see him make incremental improvement versus press coverage. One of his best plays of the day was a crossing route with a sharp break and good catch in the thick of zone coverage. He did a nice job reaching for the ball over his head, making the grab, and turning up field.

Mellette: The most notable issue with the Elon receiver came in these drills. He had difficulty gaining position to shield the defender from the pass after his break. I like his size and quickness, but his hands technique and the depth and angle of his breaks were lacking.

Harper: He did a strong job of selling some two-move routes although I thought each of these instances the second move into his break was a little ragged and something he’ll need to sharpen. His breaks at the end of routes weren’t as sharp or as quick as the early portion of his patterns. At the same time, he’s decisive and has a nice size-speed combo that allowed him to keep defenders guessing about the tact he’d take with each rep. I did notice that he was a little better when he didn’t have to deal with contact despite the fact he’s the biggest receiver of this group. He beat a corner by two steps on a deep sideline fade up the right sideline, but Syracuse quarterback Ryan Nassib was either late on the throw or simply underthrew the ball by 3-5 yards.

Wheaton: The Beavers receiver worked well back to the football and he did a good job versus off-man technique as well as press coverage. He ran the best fade route of the North practice, gaining early separation with an outside move, slipping inside the defender to get his back to the defender and also buying real estate away from the sideline to make the quarterback’s job easier by giving the passer room to target the receiver at the sideline. Although the quarterback overthrew Wheaton, this was a textbook sideline fade that a receiver like Mario Manningham still doesn’t run consistently as well. On one route, a 12-yard out that looked like the beginning of a double move, Wheaton got the best of the corner so early into the route that the defender had no other choice but pull the receiver to the turf so he wasn’t beaten.  Wheaton’s best catch was at the end of 11-on-11’s when he beat his man on a streak up the left flat and made a turning, leaping catch behind coverage on a late, underthrown ball. If Miami quarterback Zac Dysert demonstrates better anticipation, Wheaton has a 50-yard touchdown that he catches in stride.

For more analysis of skill players, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

2013 Senior Bowl: Weigh-in

0 Comments read Players
Clemson defensive tackle Malliciah Goodman has condor-like (thanks Jene-Bramel), 87.68-inch wingspan. But can he play? Photo by Parker Anderson.
Clemson defensive tackle Malliciah Goodman has condor-like (thanks Jene-Bramel), 87.68-inch wingspan. But can he play? Photo by Parker Anderson.

Unless you like looking at 20 year-old guys in some newer version of Lycra, the Senior Bowl weigh-in is a mash-up of a slave trade auction and the opening prison scene at Shawshank. A majority of these athletes would be told to lose weight if they were at a doctor’s appointment. With the rate of obesity and violence of the game, it’s no wonder NFL players have such short life spans.

It’s a sad sight in many respects. At the same time, you have to have some sort of macabre, gallows humor about this segment of the all-star event. It helps that for most of these athletes playing in the NFL is a dream and the compensation has the potential to be life-changing – if they can manage to keep an agent, accountant, family member, or future ex-spouse from robbing them blind. There I go again. I’d quit while I was only slightly behind, but this is just the intro.

The highlight of the weigh-in this year wasn’t a particular player or group of players. I’ll get to some of those tidbits soon. Weigh-ins just offer another layer of information that can be helpful within the overall analysis of a prospect. What was most telling was Senior Bowl Head Phil Savage giving a five-minute speech at the podium, something I’ve never seen the head of this event do in the past.

Savage has made some noticeable changes to the Senior Bowl event since taking over. The first difference I saw was this summer when he published scouting reports since the beginning of the college season and sent them to media on a weekly basis. The more important changes to the event were unveiled this morning.

The weigh-in was in a much larger room with far more strategic and organized seating than in previous years. Savage had the room split into two sections. The ground level seating near the stage was reserved for NFL personnel. Behind this area was stadium seating for media, although a lot of NFL guys also chose to sit there, too.

Savage’s opening statement covered a number of topics that I think reflect the NFL’s desire to upgrade the Senior Bowl experience and the former Browns GM has acted upon this feedback with a sense of urgency:

  • Structure to Team-Player Interviews: There was no defined interview schedule for teams and players in the past. It’s been a free-for-all and based on Savage’s commentary, I get the feeling teams weren’t happy that they couldn’t get equal time with every player and the lack of structure often put players in a bad light because the chaos made it easy for players to miss appointments. This year Savage created one basic schedule where each day there were would be 36 players scheduled to meet on the first floor of the team hotel. There will be four media rooms and nine players from this group of 36 will be cycled through each room four times so they can meet with every team. The fact that there was no planning like this before just boggles my mind. The remaining 70 players not scheduled are free to meet with teams as arranged informally.
  • Planning Instructions to Teams: Savage recommended teams to give players business cards with times for any interviews they arrange from a conversation. Savage has given the players notebooks to keep business cards. The Browns GM said these notebooks were to help players be held accountable for meeting interview times, but I have to say that it smelled a lot like a smart executive teaching his players to manage upward by expecting some documentation from scouts and team reps who might have contributed equally to the chaos.
  • Future Goal – Increase Player Acceptance Rate: Savage told the audience of NFL teams and media that his team examines 300 players on a Senior Bowl Watch List and visits 25 schools with the help of NFL team personnel men to provide feedback on performances. They narrow this list to 100 players on December 1. This year, 24 players turned down the opportunity to participate in the Senior Bowl. Players like Geno Smith and Montee Ball simply opted not to participate. Guys like Matt Barkley, Travis Kelce and Tyler Eifert had in-season injuries where they opted to continue rehab to maximize their showing at the combine – emphasis on placing higher emphasis on the combine than the value of all-star game practices. Tavon Austin was a late injury scratch. Savage asked the teams to continue helping the Senior Bowl selection committee moving forward because they want to cut the non-attendance rate of first-invitees in half from 24 for 10-12 in 2014. The biggest takeaway is that I think he wants to change the player-agent mentality that the Combine and Pro Day workouts are more important than this all-star environment.

The weigh-in continues to offer small layers of information that some may blow out of proportion, but at the same time might offer important clues as time passes and we gather additional intelligence on these prospects. Here are some highlights from my perspective as a skill positioned-focused analyst of player talent:

Although there are an increasing number of quarterbacks who possess physiques that look more like running backs and wide receivers, many of them – especially the pocket passing quarterbacks  – don’t look like guys you’d imagine capable of handling the most difficult position in sports. There are pro golfers in this era of sport who look far more impressive as athletes than some of these guys. NFL Draft Monster analyst Benjamin Albright compared Mike Glennon’s side profile to a pasty ironing board. Even E.J. Manuel didn’t strike me as an unbelievably conditioned athlete. Again, this is the norm and it goes to show you that quarterback has a large mental component to the craft. I wouldn’t pay too much attention to this commentary about the position.

As for running backs, that’s a little different. Auburn’s Onterrio McCalebb weighed in at 164 pounds. He has the musculature of a 185-pound guy, but that 164-pound result indicates to me that he’s a kick return specialist at best. I’ll be surprised if the South Roster allows him to participate in all the running back drills. McCalebb was listed at 174 before the weigh-in.

Another back on the border is Fresno State’s Robbie Rouse. At 5’5″, 186 pounds, I like the physical dimensions but it’s still rather small for a back. If he were 5’7″ and 198 – or 208 – I’d really be far more intrigued. Nonetheless, he was a good player and I look forward to seeing if he can run big and win over folks this week. I think he has a far better shot than McCalebb. Rouse was listed at 190 pounds before the weigh-in.

The most physically impressive tight end of this group was Rice’s Vance McDonald. Of all the players here, I thought McDonald’s frame was the best proportioned from his arms and chest to his waist and legs. He was a well-muscled, but not overly chiseled 6’4″ 262 pounds with 10-inch hands and an 81.58-inch wingspan, longest of any skill player here and longer than many linemen. McDonald is a versatile player, who often saw time split as a wide receiver on cornerbacks as a part of the Owls.

The largest wingspan at the weigh-in was Clemson defensive lineman Malliciah Goodman. The 6’3″ 272-pound defender has an 87.68-inch wingspan with 10.78-inch hands. He physically reminded me of what I’ve read of novelist Walter Moseley’s character Socrates Fortolow, a convicted felon who did his damage with his bare hands. Goodman’s arms were so long I joked that he could probably tell you if the ground was wet without bending his knees. He was also one of the most impressive physiques in the building.

Jonathan Franklin as a little heavier than listed, but I still would have liked to see him in the 210-pound range. Probably won't happen, but he can still player. Photo by Han Shot First.
Jonathan Franklin as a little heavier than listed, but I still would have liked to see him in the 210-pound range. Probably won’t happen, but he can still player. Photo by Han Shot First.

Other tidbits:

  • I thought UCLA runner Jonathan Franklin was a little light at 201 pounds. I hoped he’d be another 8-10 pounds heavier. I wonder if he has the frame to add more weight. He’s a tough, smart runner and it’s not a major concern, but a layer of information I’ll probably continue to think about as I watch him.
  • Michigan quarterback-turned-wide receiver Denard Robinson has 10-inch hands, which are a half-inch larger than the receiver with the next biggest hands on either roster. However, he also has an injury to his left hand where he cannot extend his pinky. It will be fun to see if that impacts his ability to catch a football. Judging from Torry Holt’s mangled fingers, I doubt it.
  • Think there isn’t a bias against Harvard players? The most audible sound I heard in this auditorium came when fullback Kyle Juszcyzyk took the stage and the announcer listed his school. The 6’3″, 248-pound prospect looked every bit the football player but that collective murmur told me that Harvard still elicits a reaction and I don’t take it as necessarily a positive.

More coming after practice. If you want to see preview from Jene Bramel and me, check out the NY Times Fifth Down.

For additional player analysis heading into the 2013 NFL Draft, here’s my running page of blog pieces here and at Football Outsiders.

Futures: Tennessee Gunslinger Tyler Bray

0 Comments read Players, Quarterback
Bray has the arm talent, but does he have the mental discipline to learn the game at its highest level? Photo by Wade Rackley.
Bray has the arm talent, but does he have the mental discipline to learn the game at its highest level? Photo by Wade Rackley.

We can talk the semantics of perceptions all we want, but there’s a palpable sense that the rookie quarterback class of 2012 has a viable chance to become the best in recent memory. While there are a myriad of things that can happen to alter the promising career paths of Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, and Ryan Tannehill, the 2013 class of prospects is a letdown by comparison. That doesn’t mean it lacks the talent to exceed the lower expectations.

Tennessee quarterback Tyler Bray is a great example. Compared to Wilson, Luck, Griffin, and Tannehill’s games -– which included a level of technical discipline and decision-making maturity uncommon for most rookie quarterbacks –- Bray is a more typical rookie prospect. His flaws are more apparent to the untrained eye.

More so than any quarterback in this 2013 class, Bray fits the gunslinger mold. The Clint Eastwood movie The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly is the appropriate summation of what I see from the Volunteers prospect. Physically, he’s a franchise-caliber talent with the confidence to make big-time NFL throws. He still needs to develop the decision-making maturity and technical discipline that the headliners of the 2012 class displayed in relative abundance. The question is whether he’ll cross the divide between talent and production that all rookies must face.

I don’t want to underestimate the possibility that he’ll mature as a professional, but I have my doubts. On-field performance is the ultimate display of preparation. Right now, there are a lot of loose ends.

Bray’s performance against Georgia: 24-of-45, with 281 yards, two touchdowns, and three picks, was a great display of everything good, bad, and ugly about his quarterbacking. Georgia has an aggressive, 3-4 defense with NFL-caliber athletes like Jarvis Jones, Alec Ogletree, Sean Williams, and Bacarri Rambo. These defenders have the strength, speed, sideline-to-sideline range, and football smarts to project Bray’s current game at the pro level.

I’m probably belaboring the point, but projecting a player’s performance at the NFL level is one of the most important facets of player evaluation. An accurate throw, a wide-open receiver, or a large running lane at the college level is vastly different in the NFL. This is one of the reasons why some have often been too optimistic about running back prospects from Wisconsin in the past 15 years. At the same time, some are all-too-quick to write off poor box score data from a player like Matt Forte, a player who I once watched average less than two yards per carry against a loaded LSU defense, but still delivered one of the most impressive performances I saw from a runner that year.

In my view, the more on-field adversity I can see that tests a player’s physical skill, emotional maturity, and football smarts, the better. Bray gets his share of adversity here. Physically, he’s capable. Conceptually, he’s not prepared. This is where his game falls apart most often. Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Football Godfather: Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks)

0 Comments read Players, Quarterback
No one can claim they were the "first" aboard the Russell Wilson bandwagon, but I certainly helped cut down some trees to build the wagon. Photo by Neal D.
No one can claim they were the “first” aboard the Russell Wilson bandwagon, but I certainly helped cut down some trees to build the wagon. Photo by Neal D.

I’ve been asked 2-3 times a day for the past two weeks what my take on Russell Wilson was before the season. I know many of you have read my thoughts on the Seattle quarterback, but I’m going to share those original takes, some thoughts about leadership and why Wilson could be the football equivalent of Al Pacino in the Godfather. I’m also sharing a sample of my 2012 RSP Post-Draft Overall Tiered Dynasty Cheatsheet in this post for those who are new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio – especially those seeking a reason why they should be get the RSP publication every April.

Cheat Sheet

This cheat sheet is separated into color coded tiers. Blue highlight are top‐tier picks. I expect them to make an instant fantasy impact as at least bye‐week options and within 2‐3 years develop into quality starters capable of QB1, RB1, WR1, or TE1 production. Green highlight are players that have similar upside as the top tier, but on average will need more time or work to see the field as a starter or regular contributor.

Red highlight are eventual starters, but may need 2‐3 years to attain that status. On average, this group’s upside is not as great as the preceding tiers. White highlight have the potential to develop into talented situational players within 2‐3 years. Some may exceed this projection and even become stars, but fewer in this tier have that potential than the tiers preceding them. Yellow highlight are projected backups. Just like the positional rankings, players in bold are prospects that I believe are undervalued and have the upside to develop into starters regardless of their starting point.

Value Designation

Next to each player is a value that I generated based on analysis of nine dynasty drafts. Note that it is so early in the dynasty drafting season that these values may not prove accurate even 2‐3 weeks from now. Proceed with caution with this designation and only consider it a guidepost. I calculated the average pick number for each player and I developed a designation is shorthand for the difference between how I value a player and his average spot selected:

  • Par –
  • OverX
  • Under X

“Par” means I valued the player within +/‐ 5 picks of his average spot selected. Over “X” means I value the player at least five spots lower than his average spot selected. The X represents the number I would add to the players’ average selected spot to feel he’s at his appropriate value according to my rankings. Stephen Hill is an “Over 11.” I think he’s overrated by 11 spots of his average selection spot. He’s average pick spot is 12.8 (pick 12 or 13). Add 11 spots to it and I think if a fantasy owner can get Hill with pick 23 he got good value. Realistically this won’t happen in many drafts, but it should help readers reconcile how to approach my rankings and average value. If Hill were an “Under 11,” then I’m recommending 11 spots be subtracted from his average selection spot and either pick him earlier or recognize there is value on the draft board. Note: Not all players will have a value designation.

Quarterback Running Back
(2) Andrew Luck  Par IND (1) Trent Richardson Par CLE
(3) Robert Griffin  Par WAS (4) Doug Martin Par TB
(12) Ryan Tannehill Under 6 MIA (7) David Wilson Par NYG
(13) Russell Wilson Under 27 SEA (8) Ronnie Hillman Under 10 DEN

Wilson’s Value Designation of Under 27 was the largest value of the 122 players I ranked on the full cheatsheet. Admittedly, Ryan Lindley, who was second, with an Under 22, didn’t fare so well – but I would take his situation into some account as well. On the other hand, Dwayne Allen (Under 14), T.Y. Hilton (Under 14), and Chris Givens (Under 10) were pretty good. I think you can see why I liked the Colts draft this year.

Wilson's on-field leadership reminds me of Al Pacino's Godfather: quiet and ruthless (photo by Football Schedule).
Wilson’s on-field leadership reminds me of Al Pacino’s Godfather: quiet and ruthless (photo by Football Schedule).

Back to Wilson. My greatest concerns about him was whether there would be a team willing to buck the old-guard mentality about quarterback height. You can see this caution diminish as the pieces I share with you below progress from pre-draft to post-draft. If you’re new to the RSP blog or somehow missed my thoughts on Wilson here’s what I have been saying about him:

  • Futures: Studying The Asterisk: My debut column at Football Outsiders was an analysis of Russell Wilson’s game, not at Wisconsin – where he had a line bigger than most NFL teams that dominated most opponents – but at NC State, where I believe he faced more aggressive and athletic defenses and thrived with a lesser collection of talent. In this analysis I show definitely that Wilson has the arm, anticipation, and improvisational smarts to become a starting NFL quarterback. I compared Wilson’s style to Drew Brees in his early-April analysis and then analyzed Bree’s game in this piece to show how an NFL team would have no problem finding open passing lanes for Wilson. In other words, without having to say it – the idea that Wilson was too short was hardened bullshit lodged in the minds of football traditionalists whose logic against Brees wasn’t based on the game as much as it was based on past biases ingrained in the game.
  • Undersized-Underrated: This blog post explains why Wilson’s work in Wisconsin’s offense that thrives with the running game and takes its shots deep with a play action game featuring movement, would easily transfer to the NFL. The Seahawks used a lot of these play action concepts for Wilson to be successful down field this year.
  • Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Prince, James Brown, Jimi Hendrix and the Difficulty of Comparisons: This piece is not just about Russell Wilson, but why player comparisons are often misunderstood. This column is one I’ve still have readers mention to me months later.

Elsewhere

Thoughts Today

I have to say that I’m a converted Seahawks fan and Wilson’s addition and success with the team has been the final nail in the coffin of my history with the Tennessee Titans. I followed the Titans because Steve McNair, Eddie George, and a tough defense played a physically and emotionally resilient brand of football that reminded me of my beloved 1980s Cleveland Browns before Art Modell took them to Baltimore where the last vestiges of that team remains today.  My wife is probably having involuntary nervous ticks just from the fact I’m putting this story out here in the universe once again, because she’s heard it so often in such a short period of time. It’s my own personal Three Stooges’ Niagara Falls story.

I can’t cheer for the Ravens because in my heart that city didn’t get my team the right way. Baltimore should have known better than city not to lure a team away from city with a tradition as deep as Cleveland’s. I’m not mad at Ravens fans. It’s not their fault, really. It’s just the nature of business. But It’s painful watching the Ravens. I love Ray Rice’s game. I was chopping wood for his bandwagon as early as Russell Wilson’s. I went to the University of Miami, so don’t even talk to me about Ray Lewis. He should have been a Brown. He is a Brown. They just sent him to the wrong city. Ozzie Newsome was one of my all-time favorite players. The fact he’s such a good GM for what was my team, feels like he’s the NFL Anakin Skywalker turned Darth Vader thanks to the evil emperor Art Modell.

Again, I know it’s just business. Modell isn’t the only one at fault here. The Cleveland city government and Modell were like two dysfunctional spouses screwing up their kids – the people of the city – at every turn.  So for those of you who are all about loyalty, and stuck with the team in Cleveland known as the Browns I respect that. Perhaps one day I will have a team I’m loyal to again, but nearly 20 years with the Titans has been a good run. I hope to have the same kind of run with the Seahawks.

I share this with you because the resiliency is hard not to notice with Wilson. He’s the beacon for this team. Watching him in the season opener against a Cardinals defense that gave the Patriots fits later that month, Wilson had that game won for the Seahawks if not for a Braylon Edwards’ dropped pass. Wilson put that ball exactly where it was supposed to go and you could tell by his reaction that he expected to win this game. He’s such a polished guy when it comes to the way he interacts with others, but what I notice is that quiet, laser-focused intensity.

If I were to characterize the five rookie starters from this draft class, here’s what I see and understand this is infotainment more than hard-hitting analysis:

  • Andrew Luck: The Colts quarterback is the type of guy that you probably want to hate based on all the hype of him being the most prepared NFL prospect with the most smarts for the game since Peyton Manning. But as you get acquainted with him, you realize that he doesn’t take that shit seriously. What he does care about is football and he’s a football player first, quarterback second. He’ll knock the slobber out of defenders as a blocker and if he throws an interception, he’ll try to put that guy on the sideline for the rest of the game with a good hit. You can’t hate him for being a front-runner because he earns that title every day.
  • Robert Griffin: Griffin’s the guy that you know has potential to be a tall tale in every way and when he arrives in your locker room, you still can’t believe it. Everything is off the charts: speed, agility, execution, intelligence, and most of all the willingness to humbly grind yet balance it with leadership that belies his years. He’s also a nasty-tough player with Steve McNair-like toughness that turned Dr. James Andrews into a soap opera starlet last week.
  • Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill is that kid in backyard pickup games who looks like an average guy but when it’s time to pick teams he does himself no favors by telling the captains to pick him first because he’s the best player of the bunch. They dismiss what they think is noise and wait to pick him last. He then proceeds to make a strong case to prove his point, which is exceedingly painful to the competition while you’re feeling pretty lucky that you didn’t let him slip by. I think that’s what Tannehill did at Texas A&M as the walk-on when he told Mike Sherman the coach made a mistake not to award him the starting job over Jerrod Johnson. Still, he accepted the role of wide receiver and was the best one on the team. When he got his shot at quarterback, he was excellent at times. There’s a lot to like about Tannehill’s NFL future.
  • Brandon Weeden: There’s a laid-back, Cowboy thrill ride going on with this guy. He likes being aggressive and he doesn’t worry about making mistakes. There’s a little Brett Favre in him in that respect – both good and bad. I kind of see him as Slim Pickens riding the bomb in Dr. Strangelove. There are times he freaks you out, but you can’t help but like his daring.

Then there’s Wilson. To me, Wilson is like the Godfather. Quiet, charming, refined, but he’ll rip your heart out.  I’m sitting with 20 of my best Footballguys in Vegas two weeks ago, and we’re watching the Seahawks fall behind early, but I didn’t even worry because Wilson is all business. I initially thought the same thing when Atlanta was up 13-0 and Brian Billick was commenting on the lack of emotion on the sidelines. While I wasn’t optimistic at half-time, there is one thing I recognize with Wilson that I learned in my days a manager: teams adopt the attitude of strong leadership.

Let me emphasize that I said strong leadership, not good leadership. In my past business life, I knew a manager who was a strong leader, but he thrived on chaos. He got great short-term results but he wore everyone out at every turn and he burned bridges. He was eventually promoted and his successor turned out to be a good leader. The successor was a strong leader but he was quiet about it.

He focused on the details. He believed that separation from the competition came from preparation and focus. He also believed it mean staying calm and focused on the little adjustments when things weren’t going well and eventually you’d be back in game. When his bombastic boss would try to to instill his brand of over the top leadership (and don’t get me wrong, high intensity, vocal leadership can also be great) based on chaos to this manager’s operation, he’d quietly ask his boss to meet with him about something urgent in an office and then light into his boss. I saw it and it was pretty impressive in this situation because he fought for ownership of his style, had proof of results, and set the boundaries of expectations for his boss’ behavior while managing upward.

This quiet leader’s team took on his persona and that operation was one of the best of its kind that I saw in my years in that industry. Russell Wilson reminds me of that guy. Pete Carroll shared with the media that Wilson told the Seahawks that he had issues with past coaches and went into detail. Carroll liked this about Wilson, while it worried others. I don’t know what Wilson said, but I’d bet money that Wilson’s issues were things he shared openly, honestly, and professionally with coaches and Carroll like that because he’s not some 1950s, square-cut throwback in a leadership role who doesn’t really know anything about leadership.  As long as Wilson stays healthy and the Seahawks can continue to develop talent around him, he’ll be special.

The Boiler Room: Stanford TE Zach Ertz

0 Comments read Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Tight End
Zach Ertz, another Stanford prospect, in the Boiler Room (photo by Han Shot First).
Zach Ertz, another Stanford prospect, in the Boiler Room (photo by Han Shot First).

Stanford tight end Zach Ertz declared for the draft this week. If someone could only see one play that would matter in deciding his draft day fate, which play would I use to highlight that prospect’s skills ? Will this highlight boil down this prospect to his essentials? That’s the thinking behind The Boiler Room – analysis of what makes a player worth drafting by boiling down as much as I can into a single play.

One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect. Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director.

Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round. Today’s prospect is another Stanford player, Zach Ertz. The 6-6, 252-pound tight end is near the top of a class loaded with several strong prospects at the position. What makes Ertz an NFL prospect is his fluid athleticism in an in-line tight end’s body.

This 2nd-and-10 game-winning score with 10:30 left against USC is a highlight you’ll see this spring when an NFL team calls his Ertz’s name at the NFL Draft.

Ertz may have in-line tight end size, but NFL teams will like that they can split him outside.
Ertz may have in-line tight end size, but NFL teams will like that they can split him outside.

This is a 21 personnel, I-formation, 1×1 receiver set. Ertz is the single receiver to the strong side facing a cornerback playing single coverage at the line of scrimmage. If you count the number of defenders in this photo, you’ll see that there is only one safety deep and in the middle of the field. This alignment confirms that Ertz has drawn man coverage. The defender is 6-1, 190-pound corner Torin Harris. Physically, this is a mismatch – especially on routes where Ertz can use his frame to shield the defender from the ball.

The easiest of these routes for Ertz to use his size would be options where he can post-up (fades) or break back to the quarterback (hooks, curls, quick slants, or outs). Where it seems less likely for Ertz to win against Harris, or any top-profile college program cornerback is a deeper route that requires a good story in order to gain separation. This is exactly what Ertz does with this corner-post for a 37-yard touchdown.

The play begins with Harris beginning his back-pedal after the snap with his back to the sideline and spying the pocket.

ErtzA2

The Trojans’ corner doesn’t try to jam Ertz because of the tight end’s size presents an advantage early in the route. Harris opts to stare into the offensive backfield and utilize his quickness to break on the football. The corner has his back to the sideline during this release down field because he hopes to funnel the play inside where he can get help from his teammates – especially if this is a short slant. Shortly after crossing the line of scrimmage, Ertz bends the route inside and looks inside as if he’s about to break on the slant.

ErtzA2 ErtzA3

As soon as Harris reacts to Ertz’s inside move, the tight end plants and dips outside  as if he’s heading for the corner. Route running is a lot like telling a suspenseful story: it’s best to be two steps ahead of the audience. Defenders are a lot like an audience. Most members of the audience anticipate the first move or change in the plot of a story. Not as many anticipate the second twist in the plot line so most of them react as if this is the true path of the story. It is this reaction where they tend to make the strongest commitment to compensate for anticipating the first move, but not the second.

ErtzA4

To generate this reaction the route runner must display a strong attention to detail, precision with his footwork, and the quickness and agility to execute with enough fluidity to manipulate the defender. Ertz demonstrates each of these facets of route running on this play, drawing Harris out of position, and forcing the corner to react in the moment.

ErtzA5

Ertz’s break to the outside forces Harris to react by turning outside and continuing his back pedal. If it wasn’t clear from the beginning of the route that the corner was playing the ball and not the man, this still reinforces it. Harris continues to the pocket while reacting to Ertz’s second break. Meanwhile, Ertz is setting up his third move, a break to the post while Harris continues to react to the potential corner route. The fact that Ertz’s position is behind and shaded to the corner’s outside shoulder keeps the tight end just out of Harris’ peripheral vision. Despite the fact that Ertz is not within site of the corner at this moment, he still sells the outside break with his head.

This detail is important because he doesn’t know what the exactly position or sight line the corner will have before he executes the route and failing to sell even the slightest detail can tip off a defender. Further, there is always the chance that the safety doesn’t buy what Ertz is selling and works to the middle of the field early enough to foil the play.

ErtzA7

By the time Ertz breaks inside, Harris has committed enough to the post route that it will require a bad throw for the corner to recover and defend the pass. The direction of the knees and hips tell the story. In this case, Harris falls for the bait and the result is Ertz gaining at least three steps of separation.

ErtzA8

If you outlined Harris and pasted that outline in this space between him and Ertz, there would be enough room for three outlines. Ertz turns towards the throw and gets his head around and his hands up. A route with this detail of movement to set up the break requires the receiver to make a late adjustment to track the football on a pass that should be arriving with some heat.

ErtzA9

Everything about Ertz’s form at this point is perfect: His back is to the defender thanks to his work to set up the break; his arms are extended to the first available point to catch the pass; and his hands are in position to make the catch with his palms facing the ball and his fingers up and splayed inward. When you see a receiver catch the ball close to his body in this situation it’s often because he lacks confidence in his ability to catch the ball with his hands or he doesn’t have mastery of knowing the correct hand position to use to attack a ball that is between belt and chest level. This pass is a little higher than that, but still in an area where I see receivers have difficulty with the position of their hands.

ErtzA10

Within a step of catching the ball, Ertz does a good job of securing the pass and looking to the safety approaching from the inside. The plant and dip under the defender is another demonstration of quick thinking and agility.

ErtzA11

As Ertz finishes planting the outside foot and turning his hips inside, he also lowers his pads in anticipation of contact and has both hands on the football. These are all good reactions. The only thing Ertz doesn’t do is get the ball closer to his body in anticipation of a hit. Fortunately for the Stanford tight end, his move is good enough to avoid the safety and get the ball tucked firmly into his inside arm as he breaks from the outside pursuit.

ErtzA12

The to the middle of the field not only helps him avoid the safety, but it also puts Ertz’s teammate in position to block Harris. All that is left between Ertz and the end zone is the pursuit behind him.

Ertz13

Remember that Ertz just executed a sharp change of direction that would slow the gait of any player. As No.16 closes on Ertz, I like how the tight end demonstrates the awareness to dive for the goal line. It illustrates that Ertz saw the backside pursuit as he made this cut inside the safety and that he has skill at processing what to do as a ball carrier in the open field. Within a few steps he extends the ball towards the end zone, just ahead of the defender attempting to punch the ball loose.

ErtzA14

Ertz anticipates the defender, dives for the goal line, and lands in the end zone maintaining control of the football. It’s the culmination of a play that illustrates why a defender better not take this big man for granted. Harris playing the ball over the man did just that and he paid the price.

Ertz is a lot like Bengals receiver Jermaine Gresham, a big, physical, and agile player capable of developing into an NFL starter and intermediate threat with big-play ability. What this play doesn’t show you represents a lot of what he’ll need to improve: using his hands at the line of scrimmage and making receptions after contact from a defender. If he can improve his game, I think he can develop into a performer with Heath Miller’s upside. I still have more to study so don’t take the Miller comparison as anything more than a distant summit of Ertz’s potential. Still, the view from this level is promising.

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

The Boiler Room: RB Stepfan Taylor, Stanford

0 Comments read Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Running Back
Kick off my Boiler Room series is Rose Bowl MVP Stepfan Taylor (photo by Han Shot First)>
Kicking off my Boiler Room series is 2013 Rose Bowl MVP Stepfan Taylor (photo by Han Shot First)>

One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect. I will often study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. That’s the thinking behind The Boiler Room – analysis of what makes a player worth drafting by boiling down as much as I can into a single play. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

[People] don’t like to break a player down, look at his particulars. That involves details. Most people get bored with details. Because in order to look at the details, you have to love what you’re doing, and you have to be highly motivated. I loved playing football. I relished the details.

– Jim Brown

Today’s prospect is Stanford running back Stepfan Taylor, who is the Cardinals’ all-time leading rusher. He’s a versatile power back and while I’m still refining my stylistic comparison, Leroy Hoard comes to mind. This 1st-and-15 screen pass for a 23-yard touchdown with 0:36 in the third quarter against USC to force a 14-14 tie is a big reason why. It’s also a play I would insert at the top of Taylor’s highlight reel for a personnel director’s viewing because there are a lot of details to mine from this single play.

This screen begins from 3×1 receiver, shotgun formation.

The two guards and center are the three linemen who will lead Taylor on this screen while the tackles pass block the edges.
The two guards and center are the three linemen who will lead Taylor on this screen while the tackles pass block the edges.

Taylor helps set up this screen to the right flat by approaching the right guard at the line of scrimmage as if he intends to pass protect.

I like that Taylor is nearly flat-footed and still enough to sell the idea he's in pass-protection mode.
I like that Taylor is nearly flat-footed and still enough to sell the idea he’s in pass-protection mode.

As soon as the edge rusher works inside the tackle, Taylor releases inside the defender and turns to the right flat. Many running backs don’t execute the release with precision, but Taylor’s break is as sharp as a receiver skilled at running a cross in a high-traffic area. Look at Taylor’s position as he crosses the right hash and it’s easy to see he executed a sharp, tight turn to set a position where his blockers can work down field and at the same time executing this tight turn outside the right tackle to create an obstacle between himself and any backside pursuit.

Note Taylor already has his head around before the quarterback is even halfway through his release.
Taylor’s sharp turn also means the RT is in position to pick up the backside pursuit if needed.

Note Taylor already has his head around before the quarterback is even halfway through his release. One of the more frequent mistakes seen on screen plays is a running back who doesn’t turn his head to the quarterback and get his hands in position to catch the ball as he’s executing his break. This precision and detail is going to be something that endears him to coaches if it translates to his pro career. Odds are likely that it will.

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Taylor extends his hands to the football and looks the pass into his body before turning up field. At the same time it’s a fluid catch and turn so he can be in position to assess his blockers and what’s ahead.

Taylor A5

At this point, Taylor approaches this run after the catch with similar concepts a runner uses at the line of scrimmage by pressing a hole and cutting back.

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Taylor doesn’t have to work this far to the numbers, but as he turned up field two photos prior, he saw in an instant that pressing the outside and cutting back to the inside accomplishes multiple things. First it gives his right guard room to seal the outside pursuit directly ahead. The left guard at the 15 benefits from this press and cutback because it widens the defender ahead of him and gives the guard an opportunity to seal the outside while the center works to the inside. If Taylor succeeds with this press and cutback, he will create a lane where he just needs to outrun the backside pursuit through a large crease. Once again, this is a sign of a runner who understands how to use his blockers and is processing information quickly to set up a more sophisticated plan of attack.

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Taylor’s press comes dangerously close to a point where he could get his legs chopped at the line of scrimmage for a minimal gain, but the runner trusts his feet to get him through trash. The next frame illustrates the kind of balance and footwork that Taylor has to make this play work. The red circles below are Taylor’s feet as he avoids the defender’s tackle attempt.

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Despite splitting his feet apart at a wide angel while airborne, Taylor lands without stumbling and maintains his stride.
Despite splitting his feet apart at a wide angel while airborne, Taylor lands without stumbling and maintains his stride.

The balance to avoid the defender he left at the line of scrimmage also means Taylor can set up the blocks ahead with another press and cut back, widening the lane once again and trusting his footwork to get him through.

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Check out the position of Taylor’s body as he executes this press outside and prepares for the cutback. His hips are bent so his backside is sticking out enough to provide a low center of gravity that will aid Taylor’s change of direction. The runner’s shoulders are leaning forward and his eyes are up. This is a balanced running form capable of breaking or eluding tackles. I don’t see this form in the open field as often as you’d think.

Compare the photo above with the one below and you’ll understand just how much this knee and hip flexibility and shoulder angle aids his change of direction. The photo above is taken just before Taylor plants his right foot into the turf to change direction to cut inside his left tackle’s block. The photo below is take just two steps later.

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Look how tight Taylor is to the left guard. His stride and body position to make this controlled cut is the reason. It’s a sharp change of direction but with enough room and speed to lead almost a yard of space between Taylor and the backside pursuit. A lot of backs either lack the discipline or body control to make this subtle of a move – especially backs 215 pounds and up. I also like how Taylor’s pad level remains low, giving him the chance to cut through a glancing blow if necessary. Running with abandon is fun to watch, but that phrase is more about intensity and aggression. Control is still an important facet of successful ball carrying.

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The only recourse the backside pursuit has at this point is to dive for Taylor’s ankles. Before analyzing this screen pass and run at this level of detail, it’s easy to imagine that Taylor nearly gets caught because he lacks speed. After viewing his form and set up of blocks, I think it’s more accurate to conclude that Taylor eliminates this defender’s best angle. Faster backs lacking Taylor’s control would have succumbed to this back side angle a couple of yards earlier.

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Taylor runs through the wrap to his ankles, again his stride and low center of gravity generated partially by his stride helps, and he now has another press and cut back scenario ahead. This time he continues inside another step before breaking outside to split the blocks of his tight end and receiver to reach the end zone.

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Six.
Six.

The subtlety of this play highlights the subtlety and attention to detail of Taylor’s game. If I were seeking a running back, I’d want one who understands how to create and eliminate angles as a blocker, receiver, and runner. Taylor can do all three. I think he’s one of the safer bets for a team seeking a contributor.

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Chicken or Egg: RB Stefphon Jefferson or Nevada Scheme?

0 Comments read Players, Running Back
The chicken or egg argument in football is between the individual and the team. One example is junior RB Stepfon Jefferson or Nevada's offensive scheme (artwork by Banksy, photo by Jan Slangen).
The chicken or egg argument in football is between the individual and the team. One example is junior RB Stefphon Jefferson or Nevada’s offensive scheme (Artwork by Banksy. Photo by Jan Slangen).

Nevada running back Stefphon Jefferson declared for the NFL Draft this week. Looking at the numbers, it’s hard to blame him. Although he only had 73 carries as a freshman and sophomore, his junior year blew away all expectations:

  •  375 carries and 397 total touches
  • 5.0 yards-per-carry average
  • 1883 yards rushing
  • 2053 yards from scrimmage
  • 25 total touchdowns

Jefferson only had one game in this year with fewer than 20 carries and seven of those contests were 30-carry workloads. Listed at 5-11, 210 pounds, the junior runner has the build to add another 5-10 pounds, which would make him a prospect with suitable dimensions to become a potential lead back or feature runner if going strictly by these numbers.

It’s also worth noting that Jefferson is a patient runner.  He does a good job of pressing a hole and cutting back to the open lane. I’m impressed with how he allows his blocks to develop and hits the hole at a good angle – often doing so with a decisive burst. The problem is that behind all of these positive details is a runner who might be more of a product of this Nevada Wolfpack scheme. In the right NFL system, Jefferson has enough positives to develop into a contributor. The key phrase is “the right NFL system,” because in the wrong one, he might not make the team.

There are several issues that I’ll address in the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio, but the most glaring one is something that I first hoped were flashes of maturity rather than a deficiency in his game. Most backs I see in the college game tend to use their speed, quickness, and agility to bounce runs outside or attempt risky cutbacks. I’ve coined this tendency as Taking It to The Corner Store. This syndrome can be fatal for a running back’s career, but it generally has a strong recovery rate. Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, and C.J. Spiller recovered nicely. The last known career casualty has been Laurence Maroney.

It’s unusual when a player has the opposite problem and doesn’t possess the cutback skills to bounce runs away from penetration or take advantage of larger cutback lanes to the opposite guard or tackle. So when I first saw Jefferson eschew a cutback lane and lower his head into the line of scrimmage to get what was available ahead, I wanted to believe he was taking a wiser course of action that I criticize many back for ignoring. Unless I see something different in the next few months, this is not the case.

Jefferson lacks the ability to make sharp, explosive, lateral cuts. Like Darren McFadden, he’s more of a run bender than a slasher. McFadden’s ability to bend runs at top speed makes him an exceptional case among NFL runners, because few straight-ahead, speed runners succeed in this era of pro football without pro-caliber, NFL lateral agility. Based on what I have seen from Jefferson, I don’t see a back with McFadden’s speed.

Here are six runs of Jefferson’s from Nevada’s bowl game against Arizona that illustrate why Chris Ault’s pistol attack complements Jefferson’s style while masking weaknesses that could limit the runner’s appeal in the NFL Draft. These runs are representative of the 30-plus attempts I saw from Jefferson against the Wildcats: carries through large holes or attempts where Jefferson could bend a run towards a secondary crease after passing through a large primary hole.

Big Holes, Big Plays

Ault’s run system isn’t purely a gap or zone scheme. For the uninitiated, a gap (or angle blocking) scheme is a ground attack where lineman pull or trap to a specific spot and the runner is suppose to run to that one area of the line and use his strength and speed to get whatever he can through the crease that the line creates. A zone scheme allows a runner to have several options to enter the line of scrimmage and the blocking tends to be slanting in a direction without the pulling of linemen.

Ault uses both methods in his offense and Jefferson’s vision is good enough that he produces well with both styles of plays. However, his style works best with gap schemes because he’s more of a straight-line runner who likes to hit the hole hard and fast. Here’s a 14-yard touchdown with 6:00 in the half that is a great angle blocking play from a 12 personnel pistol set with an unbalanced line and twin receivers on the strong side.

This is one of my favorite pistol runs. because of the alignment of the wing back.

This is one of my favorite pistol runs. because of the alignment of the wing back. Ault has designed this offense so the play can be a gap play, a zone play, a play action pass, or a straight pass. There’s a ton of versatility with this alignment and the added flavor of the receiver “ghosting” behind the runner to add the threat of the end around is just another cool wrinkle. What I love about this as a gap play is that most defenses are use to the concept of a guard pulling around center and a fullback entering the hole, but the placement and use of the wing back is just different enough to make it harder for a defender to see what’s coming at him.

Jefferson A2

Although the wing back is essentially a fullback and not far from being an offset blocker in an I formation, the angle is just wide enough that when he pulls across the formation the defender can choose the wrong gap or run right through the tunnel and mistake that light on the other side as something less painful than a 255-pound freight train. The linebacker in orange considers the gap outside the puling guard before opting for the gap to the guard’s inside shoulder. Does he see the pulling wing back? If he does, it’s still a tough angle to get good position to hit and shed that block to the ball carrier. Here’s the red zone angle of the play.

Endzone view from No. 38's perspective.
Endzone view from No. 38’s perspective.
No.38 takes one step outside to cover the gap outside left guard.
No.38 takes one step outside to cover the gap outside left guard.
No.38 is outside the pulling guard and waiting on the runner's approach, but does he really see what's lurking around the corner? Why do I feel like I'm diagramming a shark attack? I like it.
No.38 is outside the pulling guard and waiting on the runner’s approach, but does he really see what’s lurking around the corner? Why do I feel like I’m diagramming a shark attack? Worse yet, I like it.
Once the LB hops back to the inside because of his read of the RB, he's looking headlong into that 255 lb. freight train.
Once the LB hops back to the inside because of his read of the RB, he’s looking headlong into that 255 lb. freight train.
This isn't a hole, it's a large force field.
This isn’t a hole, it’s a large force field.

Jefferson hits this small canyon and goes untouched for the 14 yards to the end zone. Crazy as it sounds, this is one of the smaller craters that the Nevada line blasts in this contest.

Maturity or Agility Lacking?

Here is a 1st-and-10 with 4:22 in the half from a weak side trips, 11 personnel pistol formation. This run appears to be a zone play to left guard with a zone read for the quarterback to keep it around right end according to the position that the defensive end takes.

Jefferson B1

Jefferson takes the exchange and begins to dip the play to the inside. It’s at this point below where I think there are several ways to read and react to this play.

Jefferson B2

The elite athlete with great instincts to take risks that coaches at first find themselves on the sidelines screaming “No, no, no. . .yes, yes, YES!!!” is going to anticipate this opening with the yellow arrow before the snap or early after the play begins. He’ll also have the speed and agility to create a lane to work around the tight end and burst into the secondary for a long gain. This is a rarity even among terrific prospects because on the surface it looks like the decision of a really bad player. However the greats often break fundamental rules and get away with it due to special athleticism or anticipation.

The most common decision is the pink arrow to left end. This is where most top athletes with risk-taking, corner store tendencies will try to bounce a run once they work to left guard and don’t see a crease. This is the decision they have to curb when they reach the NFL because the percent chance they break it is much lower than the success rate in college football.

It’s the blue line that is the most sensible, conservative choice. Find the soft spot in the line, lower the pads, and bull through it. Keep the offense on schedule, don’t risk the loss of yardage, and you might possibly break through the line for a big play. In other words, let the defense make the mistake rather than you making the mistake.

Jefferson B3

This is exactly what Jefferson does. He approaches the soft spot, puts his head down, gets two yards untouched, and then bulls against the backs of his linemen for another four as they push the pile together for a total of six. It’s a mature play and the positive of this choice is that Jefferson can develop into the type of NFL back that will get what his line gives him. It makes him a potentially reliable option. A zone scheme running game will want a more creative running back in situations other than this play where the runner has more room to operate. Let’s look at a play or two that calls for more agility.

Failed Cutback

Here is a two-yard gain on a 1st-and-10 sweep to the strong side of an unbalanced line and twin strong side receivers with 0:58 in the first quarter. The guards pull to the strong side of this pistol formation run and Jefferson either bounces the run outside or, more frequently, works between the pulling guards.

 Jefferson C1

The two pulling guards opt to double team the penetration up the middle.
The two pulling guards opt to double team the penetration up the middle.

As Jefferson rounds the corner he has a couple of lanes to chose from. What I see from this play as it progresses is a back with the vision necessary to create, but he lacks the physical agility to execute what he sees happening before him. The runner spots the unblocked middle linebacker early in this play. He’s a player a runner behind two pulling guards is expected to see blocked by one of them, but due to penetration this won’t be the case. Jefferson opts to stretch the play a little more to the outside, but remains patient about his decision.

Jefferson C3

Jefferson has a few decisions: hit the hole with the middle linebacker, split the tight end and receiver’s blocks at the hash, or work outside the hash to the flat. The first open is a minimal gain at best without some creative thinking. The second option is inadvisable because the defender’s helmet is position in a place where there’s no way Jefferson will split these defenders and get  positive yards. The third option require great burst because that same defender on the tight end is in position to work through the block and tackle the runner trying to bounce it outside – and likely for a loss.

Jefferson C4

This screen shot above is a big reason why I believe Jefferson has the vision, but lacks the physical skills to execute like an elite runner. The Nevada runner opts to take another step or two outside to press the linebacker outside and based on his footwork above, cut behind his inside blocker and force that middle linebacker to overrun his angle. It’s a great idea, but it takes top-flight agility to execute. Matt Forte could do it. Jamaal Charles? No problem. LeSean McCoy could probably add a second move in succession that would increase AA battery sales that day in the Philadephia metropolitan area due to the insane amount of rewinding going on in Eagles fan households.

Unfortunately, Jefferson can’t. Where his feet are position in the shot above is where his momentum must stop and change direction with no wasted movement. If he can do it, he cuts behind the blocker to his left. If not, he skids into the oncoming defenders. The result below shows the skid in progress.

The yellow circle is where Jefferson was and where he needed to be to make this cutback.
The yellow circle is where Jefferson was and where he needed to be to make this cutback.

The outcome of the play is Jefferson getting hit head-on and knocked backwards before he can change direction. He had to gear down to make this cut back. This is where a jump cut or lateral plant and sharp change of direction makes a huge difference. There were other plays in this game where I’ve seen Jefferson break though a large hole at the line of scrimmage, see a defender making his way into the lane and the runner finding a much smaller secondary lane between two linemen and squeeze through to transform a four-yard play into an eight-yard play. Good vision, but the play didn’t require a sharp cutback.

This one did, and it’s representative of other plays where he misses a chance to execute a cut back or opt to barrel ahead and lower the pads for a minimal gain because he knows the cutback isn’t a part of his skill set. These aren’t the risky type of cutbacks, either. Jefferson has some real positives to his game, but his physical creativity doesn’t match what he sees.

As a straight-line runner with burst, decisiveness, and patience, he reminds me of the best of what I use to see from a back like Michael Bennett, the former Wisconsin star and Vikings starter. Jefferson lacks Bennett’s top-end speed, which is also why I have doubts the the Nevada back may struggle to find a place in the NFL.

Jefferson’s 2012 production makes it a good time for him to declare for the NFL Draft, because it’s unlikely he repeats those numbers as a senior. However, his lack of agility is an indicator that he may have benefited more from great team execution of a good scheme. Throw in his difficulties with pass protection and I’ll be surprised if he has smooth and immediate transition to an NFL lineup.

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Under the Radar: ECU RB Reggie Bullock

0 Comments read Players, Running Back
Do you know this guy? Then perhaps you should learn about ECU RB Reggie Bullock. Photo by Beth Hart.
Do you know this guy? Then perhaps you should learn about ECU RB Reggie Bullock (Photo by Beth Hart).

Las Vegas native Reggie Bullock was good enough as a high school running back for Alabama, LSU, Florida, Florida State, and Oregon to court him. Academics forced Bullock to opt for Arizona Western, where he earned consecutive 1000-yard seasons, earning the 2010 National JUCO Player of The Year Award. Why is Bullock not on most lists as a viable NFL prospect? Read on.

There are a few numbers that explain why Reggie Bullock is under the radar for the 2013 NFL Draft. One of them is 815-10, the number of rushing yards and touchdowns that the East Carolina transfer has during his final two years of college football. The other pair of numbers is 5’9″ and 178 – a height and weight that few NFL running backs have.

Noel Devine anyone? 

I want to say “don’t go there,” but it’s not that simple. Bullock is a different kind of back than the West Virginia runner. Yet, it was size concerns that prompted the Senior Bowl coaching staff to exclude Devine from pass protection drills. Bullock’s physical dimensions will also get called into question, especially after he gutted-out a deep thigh bruise during a 2011 contest against Navy that cost him the rest of the season and, due to the freakish nature of the injury, also could have cost him his leg. By the time Bullock was healthy enough to play, the Pirates were content to roll with Vintavious Cooper, a 1000-yard back in his own right.

Bullock won’t be on the radar of many NFL teams because of his dimensions, but a spread-friendly organization would be smart to do its research because unlike Devine, Bullock can pass protect. Unlike Devine, Bullock looks like a true 178 and not the sub-170 Devine was at the Senior Bowl weigh-ins two years ago. And unlike Devine, Bullock is a more refined down hill runner. Danny Woodhead, Dexter McCluster, LaMichael James, Darren Sproles, and LaRod Stephens-Howling are better points of comparison along the spectrum of small, versatile backs.

I think if Bullock earns enough of a chance to demonstrate some of the things in an NFL camp that I’ve seen him do against Louisiana-Lafayette in this year’s New Orleans Bowl, he could surprise. The odds are slimmer for undrafted free agents, which I expect Bullock to be in May, but the right team at the right time could make all the difference. Two skills that Bullock has that could make that difference is his downhill mentality as a runner and his pass protection skills.

Bullock Between the Tackles

BullockA1

Bullock had 17 carries for 104 yards and 2 touchdowns against ULL because he provided the Pirates a spark and the team opted to ride him in this bowl game. One of these plays was a 1st-and-10 run of 13 yards from a 3×1-receiver, 11 personnel shotgun set with 6:05 in the third quarter. The right guard and center double-team the defensive tackle to the inside and the left guard and left tackle double-team the defensive end to open a hole between the two defenders.

BullockA2

Bullock hits the hole with authority. While it’s not as small of a crease as it appears from this angle, the senior running back repeatedly demonstrates skill with pressing lanes and cutting back through smaller openings than backs with a penchant to take runs to the corner store. Bullock’s running indicates to me that he understands why decisive running with good technique is even more important for a back with his size limitations.

BullockA3

Bullock bursts through the crease with authority and beats the edge defender through the hole for a quick six yards. This is expected of a player with Bullock’s physical skills. What’s unexpected is his balance and downhill mentality in the later stages of the run where many smaller backs try to get too cute. Instead, the ECU runner lowers his shoulder into the oncoming safety, bounces off the hit, slows his gait to avoid a head-on collision with the second safety coming from the right, and spins inside the defender with excellent balance for the score. Here’s the frame-by-frame.

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BullockA5

BullockA6

BullockA7

BullockA9

BullockA10

Bullock may never turn into a special player, but this is a special run. The ECU runner had his legs cut at the four and he still manages to contort his body into position to reach the end zone despite only having one foot touch the ground after that contact with the second safety and reaching the end zone. Burst, balance, pad level, decisiveness, and agility are valuable traits for one back to have in the NFL. Louisiana-Lafayette may never be mistaken for an NFL team, but this was an NFL-caliber play.

Pass Protection

I want to focus on his pass protection, because as a 5-9, 178-pound back he’ll need to show that he can do some of this if he wants a shot as a third down, spread runner in the NFL.

BullockB1

Bullock’s first assignment came on 1st and 10 with 14:12 in the half from a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun set. He chips the defensive end with his inside shoulder. Considering the size differential between the two players, this is a good hit – and it’s not the only one.

BullockC1

Here’s a 2nd-and-seven from 20 personnel and 1×2 receivers. He’s the lead back in this offset pistol set with 10:12 in the half and he works to the edge of the pocket to take on the blitzing linebacker with good form.

BullockC2

Bullock does a nice job of getting between the defensive end and quarterback early in the play so he can square his body for the impending collision. He then takes a step forward to generate additional space so he lessens the chance of getting knocked into the quarterback.

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The only mistake Bullock makes here is to lower his head in the act of delivering a punch to the defender as seen below.

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Despite the technique flaw, Bullock gets his hands into the defender, delivers a punch, and turns the defender outside the pocket to funnel him away from the quarterback.

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The delivery of the hit is especially good explosion and he follows up the contact with a second punch as the quarterback releases the ball. Telegraphing the hit with the lowered head needs to be corrected immediately or an NFL edge rusher eats Bullock’s lunch. Still, there are good things to work with here.

What I like most of all is the effort and smarts on the fly. Here’s a 2nd-and-10 play with 1:01 in the half that underscores this point. Bullock is the back in 10 personnel. This is a shotgun set with receivers 2×2 where he’s flanking the quarterback over right tackle. ULL blitzes two linebackers off the same side, but layers them in succession to confuse and overload the blocking scheme.

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Bullock manages to make two blocks on this play, keep the play alive, and give the quarterback time to make perfect throw on the move to his wide receiver running a deep cross 40 yards down field that should have resutled in a touchdown. After the snap, Bullock crosses the formation to pick up the outside linebacker rushing off left tackle.

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Bullock gets square as soon as he crosses the quarterback’s path. This is important because now he has more control to move laterally and use his hands while refining his angle to the pass rusher.

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On this block, Bullock’s head is up as he delivers a two-handed punch with his body square to the defender despite needing to refine his body position. The downside of Bullock’s game is that he’s rarely going to have success anchoring against a defender bigger than a cornerback blitzing off the edge. However, the technique is good and it does afford the quarterback time to either release the ball or take evasive action. Hidden behind the offensive line is the second linebacker working around the corner as the first linebacker is knocking Bullock into the pocket.

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The quarterback realizes it’s time to bug-out and the left tackle does a good job of helping Bullock with the outside linebacker. Meanwhile the inside linebacker rounds the corner and has a nice angle to the quarterback. Bullock has the presence of mind to see this developing and works outside to address the blitzer. It’s usually enough for a college team to expect a running back to successfully cross the formation and pick up one blitzer. It’s even better if that runner understands to work with the inside rush before working outside if the defense tries to overload that side with multiple blitzers. Bullock not only has to deal with the overload, but a layered look that could have been a disaster.

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The linebacker has the advantage on Bullock due to his angle outside, but I like the running back’s hustle to work outside and deliver a push that forces the rusher wide of the quarterback.

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There isn’t a day that goes when I’m studying the game where the “game of inches” truism isn’t reinforced with a play like this one. Bullock lays out for the chance to hit the linebacker bearing down on the quarterback and it’s this effort that makes the difference between a sack and what should have been a touchdown pass.

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The result of this effort is the quarterback earning room to work to the right flat and throw the ball 40 yards down field to his receiver on a deep cross that hits his teammate in stride.

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This play in pass protection and his 13-yard touchdown run demonstrate the Bullock knows he has to give every inch of effort to make something positive happen. He may never be a fantasy football owner’s idea of a dream pick, but on the right team and in the right scheme I think he could be far more valuable to an NFL team than the fact he’s not on the collective radar of most draftniks.

For more analysis of skill players like the post below, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment will be available in February. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.