Category Players

Bobby Rainey’s Career Day

November 20, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Running Back

I’d like to believe that last weekend will be the beginning of a long and fruitful career as an NFL starter for Bobby Rainey, but I’m not naive. The one position in the NFL where there is no shortage of talent is running back. There may be teams that lack a good eye for matching running back talent with its roster, but there are backs training at home with the ability to produce as an NFL starter if called upon.

Still, Rainey’s production is worth a look within the context of a season where Indianapolis traded its first round pick for Trent Richardson to pair him with a run scheme that is supposed to be his best match. Richardson has been far less productive than Donald Brown, a back playing well enough that it would be understandable if Colts fans are angry with Brown for taking so long (and costing so much in additional running back talent added to the roster) to finally begin looking like a quality NFL runner.

As fan, I’d remain patient with Richardson. However, the fact that he is not performing to expectation and needs more time to gel with his offensive line is a red flag similar to the one his teammate Brown first earned years prior. At the same time, the Cleveland Browns cut Rainey after giving him 14 carries in 6 weeks.

Two weeks later in Tampa Bay, and Rainey looks like the underrated back that I thought he was when he was prospect at Western Kentucky. Why is Rainey a fit with the Buccaneers but the Ravens and Browns gave up on him?

Especially the Ravens. Rainey’s game is stylistically comparable to Ray Rice – right down to the stamina that comes from being a 212-pound “short, but not small” back.

My contention? There’s a disconnect between the scouts and front office that bring in a player as a potential contributor and the coaching staff who decides whether to use him – if even give him a true shot. The counter argument is that Rainey would have never earned a shot in Tampa Bay if Doug Martin, Michael Smith (preseason), and Mike James hadn’t gotten hurt. The Buccaneers were desperate for a complement to Brian Leonard, saw Rainey flash against Miami, and rode the hot hand once he continued to maximize his chances a week later against Atlanta.

This is true, but ask yourself this question: Do you think Chris Ogbonnaya could have matched Rainey’s output if he was in the Buccaneers’ backfield last Sunday? Ogbonnaya runs hard, but I have never thought the Browns’ current lead back is the same quality player as Rainey.

The Browns disagreed with this notion. Yet, Cleveland and its offensive line – considered more talented from tackle to tackle than the Buccaneers – hasn’t helped Ogbonnaya gain as many yards on the ground in 10 games as Rainey has gained in two with the Buccaneers.

And what about Willis McGahee? The veteran has 275 yards on 106 carries this year. Rainey has 208 yards on 38 carries in six quarters of work.

You don’t think Rainey – an undrafted free agent cut by the Ravens – was too expensive for the Browns, do you? Perhaps McGahee and Ogbonnaya were too expensive to let go. Or more likely, the Browns didn’t know what it had in Rainey, judged him on his height and draft status, and didn’t give him a chance. By the way, Baltimore shouldn’t get away scot-free from criticism; Bernard Pierce has 279 yards on 103 carries and 2 touchdowns for Baltimore this year.

Of course, Rainey’s next six quarters could be bad enough that he’ll be nothing but a blip in the memories of football fans. While he has the NFL’s attention, let’s look at what Rainey has done thus far that is consistent with his performance as a college prospect.

Patience

Rainey is adept at both gap and zone plays because of his college offense because he runs with his eyes. Rainey is a patient player whose feet work in conjunction with his eyes. The overall blocking by the Buccaneers line on this play is spotty, but Rainey’s skills make this play worthwhile.

The Buccaneers pull its tackle behind the guard as the rest of the line slants to the left with the hope of two linemen reaching the linebackers to give Rainey a hole. But as Rainey approaches the exchange point with Mike Glennon, the middle of the line is a logjam. Note the Buccaneers’ No.75 who is pushing the Falcons’ tackle who has his helmet positioned at an angle where he’s poised to penetrate the backfield just as Rainey takes the football.

If Rainey continues downhill along the trajectory of the exchange point, he collides with the penetration inside No.75. But the undrafted free agent runner pulls off a stutter move that former NFL offensive lineman Ben Muth suggests that top-10 draft pick Trent Richardson should be using more often.

Rainey doesn’t stop and cut, but he changes his stride just enough to make a slight brake in his pace, allow his teammate to push the penetration to the left, and then continue his course to the hole.

This is a fine display of footwork and agility integrated with what he sees ahead. Even so, there’s another obstacle ahead. Check out the defender coming inside the tight end (No.81) at the line of scrimmage and it’s clear that Tampa has done a good job reaching the second level of the Atlanta defense, but not a good job of opening creases at the first. Fortunately, a good runner makes his offensive line look better than it is and Rainey is used to performing well against major college defenses that outplayed his offensive line.

Rainey makes the decision to work tight to his guard and bend the run outside the oncoming penetration inside the tight end. This is a subtle move but it’s the difference between a two-yard gain and a much more productive run.

When Rainey reaches the line of scrimmage, he delivers a stiff arm to the defender working inside the tight end. Remember, Rainey is three pounds lighter than Frank Gore’s listed weight. He’s short, not small; and this stiff arm is something you’ll begin to realize is a regular part of his arsenal.

Because Rainey has the patience, footwork, agility, and power to clear two obstacles before he crosses the line of scrimmage, he’s now able to benefit from the quality blocking at the second level. By design this is backwards for the ideal ground game. While there have been questions about Doug Martin’s struggles and Mike James’ success, this is the type of play where a one-cut, downhill runner like James wouldn’t be as successful.

Rainey comes from a similar style of running as Martin. Although they both might err on the side of trying too hard to break a big run when the line isn’t playing well, they possess the big-play ability to create space that isn’t there.

Rainey accelerates to the edge and turns the corner on the linebacker for the first down and earning another four yards after crossing the marker.

Here’s a more straight-forward run where the line does its job upfront and Rainey’s job is to win some match-ups in the second and third level of the defense. This is a 1×1 receiver, 21 personnel, I-formation set on 2nd-and-five where the Buccaneers run a zone play with the line slanting left to set up a cutback to right end.

This time around, the Tampa line does a good job sealing the Falcons’ line to the left side.

As with any zone play, Rainey has multiple options. One of them is to follow his lead blocker inside left tackle and as you’ll see in the next two frames, it’s something Rainey is considering as he reaches the exchange point with Glennon.

Once Rainey receives the ball from his quarterback, it becomes apparent to the runner that there’s not much of a gap inside left tackle. However, he does see the Atlanta defense flowing to the left and this makes the cutback a viable option.

Rainey covers another two yards along the same trajectory as his fullback before planting his outside leg and cutting back. As you can see below, there’s a nice seal of the right side by No.69 and No.84.

This is now about burst, quickness, and the line continuing to hold up its end of the bargain.

Rainey works towards the edge, and just like the first play, bends the run tight enough around his seal (No.69) that he has room to address the cornerback working under the wide receiver in the right flat. There are several runs in this game where Rainey does an excellent job bending around lead blocks to set up creases to avoid a defender ahead of him. In fact, Rainey’s first carry in the game is a good example.

This was a run to right end behind a pulling guard and his fullback. As he reaches the flat, Rainey picks up a block by the fullback and makes a concerted effort to bend tight to that block to clear the block from No.76 ahead.

As he bends this run ahead of the fullback’s block, the blocked defender manages to wrap Rainey, who runs through the tackle and gains another nine yards up the sideline for the first down.

Back to this I-formation run with the cutback to right end. Rainey bends his run tight to the edge of his linemen to eliminate as much of the angle of the oncoming defensive back as he can.

This gives Rainey a nice crease up the right hash for the first down and momentum to finish the play strong.

Rainey lowers the pads to split the linebacker and safety. It’s this pad level combined with his low center of gravity that repels the safety’s contact.

The safety slides off Rainey and it’s the linebacker who is forced to wrap and drop the running back two yards later.

One of my favorite runs in this game incorporates his tight-cornering concept in traffic. It happens with 5:06 in the third quarter on a 2nd-and-10 from a 22 personnel I-formation run versus a Falcons defense playing the run with nine defenders in the box.

This is a gap-style play where the left guard pulls across center to the right side but as you’ll see, Atlanta’s defense anticipates the trap and forces Rainey to improvise.

At first, it’s all systems go. The guard pulls across, the fullback approaches the line, and there’s a slight push from the right side of the Buccaneers’ line.

Just after Rainey takes the exchange, you’ll begin to see the left side of the Falcon’s line penetrate across the face of its blockers and create a logjam at the point where the trap block occurs.

Rainey sees the standstill behind the trap block, reads No.91 working across the face of the backside guard, and the runner takes a more creative alternative: He stops, plants, and cuts to the backside tackle. This is a great display of agility, and peripheral vision.

Rainey executes the cut back and from the vantage point of this frame, it seems unlikely that a runner would exploit a hole between the tight end and the left tackle up the left hash. But this is what happens as you’ll see below.

Rainey executes this move with another tight bend around the first linemen and this gives him a shot at getting inside the tight end, who manages to bring the linebacker to one knee.

Rainey makes an even harder lateral cut than the first to exploit this smaller crease and burst up the hash.

Five yards later, Rainey clears the tight end’s block and has his pads down hill and in position to finish this run strong, falling forward and gaining eight yards on a play that could have easily been a loss of two.

Leverage and Balance

It’s not just moves at the line of scrimmage that make Rainey a nice surprise for the Buccaneers. This 2nd-and-10 run should have been foiled in the backfield, but Rainey displays a comfort with physical play that is Ray Rice-like.

The line slants right to begin this run and the defensive tackle over left tackle does a good job crossing the face of the lineman and reaching the backfield.

By the time Rainey takes the exchange, the tackle is making a beeline for the back and it appears there will be an imminent collision 3-4 yards in the backfield.

Rainey is too quick for the tackle, dipping outside the penetration towards his teammates who are sealing the left side of the line to the inside.

As Rainey reaches the line of scrimmage, the defensive end works through the tight end and now has an head-on angle with the runner.

Rainey once again displays the stiff arm and pad level to work past a man much bigger.

The key to a good stiff arm is being the first to make contact and delivering the contact with good leverage – and an angle where there’s a chance to work past it.

Rainey gets the corner, keeps his pads downhill, and gains nearly five yards on a run where two defensive linemen had him dead to rights for a loss.

Notice that I haven’t shown the long touchdown run? It was a well-blocked play at every level with nice decision-making at the second and third level from Rainey. It was fun to watch, but not nearly as impressive an individual effort as some of these shorter runs.

While I believe Rainey can earn a share of a committee with a team over the next 2-3 seasons and become a lead back if an organization gives him a true opportunity to compete for the job, I’m more skeptical of how the NFL works. Rainey is already 26 and it’s only his second season in the NFL. In contrast, Marshawn Lynch is just a year older than Rainey and is already an eight-year veteran. This is another round peg to Rainey’s resume that doesn’t fit the league’s square holes.

Even so, Rainey should be proud of this game. Because even if he never earns an extended opportunity to compete as a starting running back, no NFL fan, player, coach, scout, or front office employee can ever say that Rainey is not an NFL-caliber running back without appearing ignorant. That’s more than most prospects at this position can claim.

For more analysis of offensive skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

NFL Closeup: Le’Veon Bell’s Progress Report

November 19, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Running Back

Progress Report: Don't be a hero. See below. — Progress Report: Don’t be a hero. See below.

Just before the 2013 NFL Draft, I wrote a post about Le’Veon Bell. The gist of the analysis addressed why Bell was a polarizing prospect among fans and analysts and why I believed Bell has the athleticism and patience to prove his naysayers incorrect. Time to check on Bell’s progress.

The major criticisms of Bell’s game are that he 1) runs too much like a small back and won’t make plays with his agility in the NFL and 2) He bounces too many plays outside and needs to run tougher. Based on what I’ve seen this season – and a reflection of much of much of the analysis below – the progress report is a mixed bag.

The critics are correct that Bell makes choices like a small back. However, they are dead wrong about Bell not having enough quickness and agility to make productive plays with this style of running. Because Bell has been able to use his agility and quickness to his advantage, he is bouncing too many plays outside. It’s not so much that he needs to run tougher because he has shown plenty of power. What’s problematic for some to grasp is that Bell’s agility is at the root of the same types of rookie obstacles that we saw from backs like C.J. Spiller, LeSean McCoy, and Jamaal Charles.

Once this trio of backs learned when to bounce plays outside or drop the pads and pound inside based on down and distance situations, their home run speed became a true factor in their games. The difference between these backs and Bell is that once the Steeler runner learns to base his decision-making on down and distance situations, fans will begin to see the more punishing side of Bell’s game.

Agility and Quickness

Bell has shown that he can bounce plays outside and get the edge on a defense since he earned his first start in the regular season.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Yi6pj_TTmsY]

Bell makes two cuts towards the edge, beats defensive end Brian Robison around the corner and takes it to the end zone. It’s a product of decent blocking the the cornerback peaking his head inside the tight end at the edge that gives Bell the angle to the flat. One of the things Bell is good at doing consistently is manipulating defenders to commit in the wrong direction and lose their original angle.

Here’s a run against the Lions last week where Bell earns the first down because of his agility. This is a 1st and 10 with 10:18 in the opening quarter against a Lions’ defense that commits eight defenders in the box to stop the run.

In a situation like this, the running back has to demonstrate good press and cut back skills to give his teammates a chance to generate a crease he can exploit. Bell will do this by pressing inside towards the right guard and center before bending the run to the tackle and ends.

Once Bell nears the opening, he cuts outside towards the edge. At this point, Bell opts to make a second press and cut back against the defender at the edge. If he doesn’t do so, the location of the defender’s helmet to the inside shoulder of the tight end indicates that the defender has inside leverage and should be able to wrap Bell at the line of scrimmage for a minimal gain.

Bell reaches the tight end and edge defender and makes a move towards the outside. When he does this, the edge defender and the defensive back in the right flat will react to the move and slide outside just long enough for the Pittsburgh runner to exploit the gap to the end’s inside shoulder.

Dip outside . . .

Edge defender moves head from blocker’s inside shoulder to outside shoulder, giving up his leverage . . .

Bell slides inside . . .

Bell bursts through the gap inside that he creates with his short area agility. Remember, Bell had excellent agility times during pre-draft workouts. If you didn’t trust what your eyes saw with the former Michigan State runner’s quickness during his college career, his workouts substantiated the analysis that Bell’s quickness would not be an issue.

Bell bursts through the crease and earns 12 yards untouched, forcing the defensive back to give chase rather than approach over top because of his initial move at the edge of the crease.

Bell dips away from the safety as he crosses the first down marker and is eventually dragged to the turf after a gain of 14 yards.

Later in the game, Bell bounces a second run to the far side end on a shotgun run for positive yards in the red zone. A big back bouncing outside to the far side tackle from the shotgun in the red zone cannot be a ponderous runner.

Although this run requires quickness on Bell’s part, it is a well designed run when examining it from the perspective of the formation. The Steelers are in a trips set to the left and this creates a situation where most of the defense is to the left of center. If blocked as planned, the center should be able to reach the linebacker at the right hash, the right guard and right tackle should seal the defensive tackle and defensive end and the receiver in the right flat should handle the cornerback. This could give Bell a one-on-one with the safety.

So far, so good. Bell takes the exchange as the center works towards the linebacker and the guard and center engage the right side of the Lions’ defensive line.

Bell considers working between his backside guard and tackle. On the one hand, I like that he’s at least thinking about getting down hill as soon as possible even if he ultimately bounces the run around his tackle. It’s a good choice, too, because Ndamukong Suh is working free of his man and will be meeting Bell unblocked if the runner enters this hole.

Bell is quick enough to bounce the run around the edge of the right tackle despite the fact that the defender has outside leverage.

If Bell were as slow as characterized by some, this would be a tackle for a loss within the next step, if not right now. Instead, Bell dips the inside shoulder and takes the corner.

Bell is fast enough to turn the corner and get his pads downhill. As the cornerback works up the flat, Bell decides to hurdle the defender.

Up . . .

Over . . .

And still maintains his balance as he lands after contact.

I’m not a big fan of runners hurdling defenders because it’s a reckless decision with more potential harm than good for the back and his football team. However, it’s still a fine display of quickness and agility from a back some deemed unable to execute these types of plays at the highest level of football.

Here’s a rare running play in Pittsburgh where the offensive line creates a hole fast and Bell doesn’t have to do much to create. The primary crease will be at left tackle and the receiver tight to the formation will dip between the end and tackle to root out the defensive back No.28.

The first course of action is for the Steelers’ left tackle, left guard, center, and right guard to slant to the right side and seal the inside while the ends seal the outside. As you can see with the location of the helmets, the offensive line has done its job moving the Patriots defense inside.

Bell approaches the line of scrimmage in a straight line and then bends the run outside to press the hole. The wide receiver tight to the formation at the beginning of the play works inside to address the safety. He doesn’t score a direct it but it’s enough to hook the defender and give Bell room to hit the crease. Bell is agile enough to change direction, make a second shift of weight and get downhill with an angle away from the DB.

The slight stutter and change of direction does the trick and the next three frames show Bell hitting the crease with good burst and gaining positive yards.

The blocking is sound, Bell makes a quick decision, bursts through the crease, and its a six-yard gain.

Of course, rarely does an NFL offensive line open this type of crease on a consistent basis. Good NFL starters have to demonstrate superior athleticism and/or creativity and decision-making to earn quality production. Bell has the athleticism. The decision-making is not all there but compared to other backs that have entered this league and had similar gaps of knowledge and maturity, Bell is on the right track.

Agility and Underrated Power

What I’ve read from critics who I know watch football is that Bell needs to run tougher and he needs to use his frame better. In some respects, I agree. However, there are enough examples where Bell displays power than people overlook because of poor statistical production. It’s also an illustration of a back integrating moves with his upper and lower body and powering through contact.

In fact, I’d say Bell does so many things right on this play, that if I could show him his run and the next 2nd and 4 run I’m going to show you, it would prove an instructive for the rookie to know when to create and when to drop the pads and take whatever is ahead of him. At this point of his rookie year, Bell has to do a better job of reading the field and making the decision that will put his team in the best position to succeed.

On this play, Bell bounces the run outside after the two defensive tackles and the inside linebacker show good position inside to foil a run up the middle.

There are several factors why I think Bell made a good decision to bounce this play outside. The first is the team’s field position. The Steelers are near mid-field and a potential loss of yards here doesn’t compress the range of plays that Pittsburgh might otherwise run if Bell lost yards inside its own 20. Further, it’s a first-quarter run on 2nd and 4. If it was a fourth-quarter run at the edge of field goal range and his team was down by two, then taking a risk to bounce a run outside and lose yards would be a bad decision.

Second, Bell spots three defenders capable of penetrating the middle before he even reaches the line of scrimmage. Bell’s best shot to earn positive yards before dealing with contact is to bounce outside. A third reason, is the position of the cornerback, who is working away from the line of scrimmage and with enough depth that Bell has a chance to win this one-on-one match up.

If the corner had his pads squared down hill and/or closer to the line, Bell would be better served to make one dip to slide to the right side, square his pads as soon as possible and hit the crease against the linebacker. Perhaps he could slide inside this linebacker, avoid direct contact and at least minimize a loss or earn a short gain. This is what Bell should have done on the next 2nd and 4 run that I show.

On this play, Bell reads the line and reacts accordingly, sliding to the edge after first considering the next hole from the center.

As Bell dips to the edge note the cornerback outside the right hash beginning to square his pads and work to the line of scrimmage. Bell has an advantage due to the distance and the fact that he is the first to get his pads downhill and anticipate the defender.

First, Bell has to take the edge. The rookie does this with a quick stiff arm on the edge defender coming free.

It takes strength, balance, and quickness to ward off a defender while moving east west without a lot of downhill momentum. But because fans aren’t seeing Bell run through open holes with a start of 5-7 yards before dropping the pads on a linebacker and running over the defender, the runner’s power isn’t as obvious.

After turning the corner with the stiff arm, Bell gets down hill and assesses his angle on the cornerback. What I like is that within five yards of making two moves to bounce outside and then a stiff arm, Bell still has a head fake in his arsenal to set up the cornerback. The defender bites outside due to the fake and Bell now has a chance to run inside the defender’s angle.

Now Bell lowers his pads and sizes up the backside pursuit, delivering a forearm on No.28 as he crosses the first down marker.

It’s not a highlight-reel play, but it’s an effective move for a back who has already made several on just this run alone.

It’s also a move that affords Bell the opportunity to gain five yards after contact. When Bell can do a better job of knowing when not to create on runs, he’s going to be even more dangerous when these creative opportunities present themselves.

Another display of power is a four-yard gain on 2nd and 11 with 9:38 in the first quarter of the same game. This is a zone play with Heath Miller functioning as the lead blocker. The line does a good job opening the initial hole, but Miller fails to seal the second level and this is where we get another glimpse of Bell’s strength.

Pittsburgh double teams the back side end and the center and front side guard attack the Patriots’ linebackers.

As Bell approaches the exchange point with Roethlisberger, the position of the silver helmets at the line of scrimmage are indicating this play to the right side should yield a crease at the line of scrimmage. The three Patriots defenders in the middle of the field each have their helmets to the left shoulder of the lineman blocking them. Although the right tackle doesn’t have inside leverage on the front side end, Miller is entering the hole and should help seal that edge so Bell can pass.

As Miller approaches the line of scrimmage, the right tackle has turned the end just enough that Bell should reach the crease untouched. The center has engaged the inside linebacker and the right guard is about to engage Donta Hightower at the right hash.

Bell does a solid job of pressing this crease with an approach to the middle of the line of scrimmage and then dipping to the right as he reaches the crease. I have seen plenty of criticism that Bell is too slow to the hole and he needs to be more aggressive hitting the crease. If Pittsburgh ran a gap-style running offense where the back follows a pulling lineman to one crease and that’s the only true choice for the play design, then I’d agree.

However, zone blocking requires more patience to the hole and then a hard cut and burst down hill when that hole opens. When the line isn’t opening holes fast enough, the back has two choices: create or take whatever he can get with brute power. Once again, this decision-making boils down to field position and down and distance.

Bell gets as close to the line of scrimmage as possible and then dips to his right. Because he exhibits the patience necessary for a zone run, the right tackle has been given the time to turn the end to the outside and the guard has reached Hightower in the second level. If Bell hits the intended crease without this slower approach, he’s likely wrapped by the end and hit by the linebacker at the line of scrimmage for no gain. This is part of Darren McFadden’s problem on zone plays and why the Raiders return to more of a gap scheme with him.

It’s another example why fit with a system is important. If health weren’t an issue for McFadden and he was on a more balanced offense, McFadden’s explosive athleticism and aggressive mindset “to and through” the line of scrimmage is a great match for a gap style offense. Some backs can do both well. Bobby Rainey, the Buccaneers’ new back, has shown good skill as a zone runner and gap runner at Western Kentucky just as he did Sunday against the Falcons. If I were to assess which style he’s best at, I’d say he’s better suited to zone, but his facility with both made him an underrated player.

As Bell crosses the line of scrimmage, Hightower gets outside leverage on the Steelers’ guard.

Hightower, who has the size, weight, and strength advantage on Bell, hits the running back high. However, Bell isn’t the smallish back Hightower is used to running roughshod and the Steelers’ runner doesn’t collapse to the turf on his side despite the linebacker initiating an indirect collision.

In the RSP publication, I grade players on three basic types of balance when they are carrying the football: direct collisions, indirect collisions, and making cuts. Every ball carrier should display good balance when making a cut. If he doesn’t, then he will have initial struggles at the NFL level and he will need to address if footwork as soon as possible.

Skill with handling direct collisions are more times than not a matter of technical skill. Whether a 185-pound scat back or a 250-pound bruiser, good pad level, knee bend, and attacking the oncoming collision can help a player maintain balance or at least fall forward.

However, one of the true ways to tell if a ball carrier has uncommon balance is whether he can stay upright when a bigger man gets a flush hit on him from an indirect angle. Ryan Mathews has had his ups and downs as a professional – and much of it has stemmed from how he handles adversity. When it comes to pure ball carrying, Mathews’ balance to bounce off flush hits from an indirect angle was one of several factors that made him a first-round talent.

Bell doesn’t lose his footing with this hit and he continues forward as the defensive back slips inside Miller and delivers a second hit with Hightower wrapped around the Steelers’ back.

As we see at least once a week in football, a second hit can often dislodge the first defender from the ball carrier and spring that runner loose. The defensive back makes most of his contact on Bell and the runner doesn’t go down. Instead, Bell transfers some of the energy of that collision into momentum to spin.

Bell begins to spin loose in the frame below as Hightower is forced to slide to Bell’s hips in an attempt to drop the runner.

At this point, it’s a stalemate as a third Pats defender enters the fray.

The whistle blows and Bells’ progress is ruled stopped after four yards. Not a great play on 2nd and 11, but this is tough running. It’s not tough and productive for the situation, but the tools are there. Rome wasn’t built in a day and most NFL running games aren’t built during a season.

Decision-Making and Maturity: Room for Improvement

Bell’s athleticism can get him into trouble when the Steelers’ offensive line fails to open a crease and the rookie has the option to create or bull his way into the backs of his teammates and take whatever he can get. As I mentioned earlier, he doesn’t always know how to determine when he should do one or the other.

Here’s a 2nd-and-2 run where I would characterize the play as “right process, wrong outcome” because of the down and distance, the score of the game, time on the clock, and the field position. The Steelers spread the field just enough that it hopes Bell can find a crease on this short-yardage play in Patriots’ territory early in the first quarter of this scoreless game.

As Bell takes the exchange, note the various defenders I’ve circled below and the gaps they are covering. There is no true open at this point of the run. If this was 3rd and 2 or the setting of the game was different, Bell might be best served to ram the ball behind the lineman with the greatest push and get whatever he can to set up a 3rd-and-short.

However, I believe Bell has license to create on this play and he tries to press the hole to the right by beginning his approach towards the left and bending it back.

The Patriots defense has done a good job filling the gaps inside (blue and red) and covering the front side and back side gaps (green and orange).

At this point, Bell should probably lower the pads and take on the linebacker coming over top or try to slide outside No.68 and squeeze the run between this blocker and the backside defensive back No.37. Neither of these options are likely to produce a significant gain, but this “find the home run hole” mentality is what Bell has to temper.

The linebacker shoots the gap, hits Bell in the legs, and drops the runner for a loss. Again, bad outcome but the setting allows some leeway for Bell to be creative and fail with a short loss. It happens to every back in the NFL.

Here’s a play where Bell has to be more conscientious about his decision-making in contrast to the 2nd-and-4 gain where he earns five yards after contact and did a good job reading the defensive back’s position so he could bounce the play outside. This play Bell does everything wrong.

The Steelers’ line hopes to create its primary crease off right tackle and use the fullback, tight end, and wide receiver to seal the edge and second level so Bell has a one-on-one with the safety at the right hash. This is the type of play that is tempting for an athletic runner to bounce outside. Fellow Big-10 alum Laurence Maroney appeared to have turned the corner on a play similar to this during a 59-0 blowout of the Titans in a snowstorm when he kept a play inside, lowered the pads through the defensive back and busted the run up the gut for a touchdown. However Maroney failed to turn the same corner that many of his contemporaries did and left the league shortly after.

Bell approaches the exchange point and the interior linemen are already engaged. If they can force the Patriots defensive linemen to work to left, Bell has a nice press and cut to the right. The frame below illustrates that this is exactly what happens.

Bell will begin his press and cut between the frame above and the next shot. Note the position of the safety. Bell needs to read this player on this 2nd-and-4 run. The Steelers are already down by seven and approaching midfield. This is a time to make a conservative decision and if he breaks some tackles in the first or second level, great. If not, third and short isn’t a bad situation for Pittsburgh.

As Bell begins his cutback in the frame above, note the fullback working through the crease towards the linebacker just inside the right hash. Bell needs to focus on hitting his crease with downhill momentum and getting his pads low. If the fullback gets a good block, Bell might be able to slide inside the safety or run through the defensive back’s hit for a first down.

The worst-case scenario for his play is the edge defender on Heath Miller sliding inside and wrapping Bell at the line of scrimmage. Again, not a big deal in the scheme of this series. However, Bell still has the home run mentality at work and it’s the rookie runner who fails his teammates in this situation.

In the frame below, Bell sees the edge defender’s helmet on Miller’ inside shoulder and fixates on the possibility of bouncing the run to the edge. The corner store is in sight for Bell and he hasn’t learned that there’s a time when taking a side trip is a bad idea. With the safety in position to earn a good angle through three possible gaps and close to the line of scrimmage with his pads down hill, this is one of them. Remember, on the 2nd and 4 play I showed where Bell bounced the play outside for a nice gain, the defensive back began the play working away from the line of scrimmage, the field position was different, and the game was scoreless.

Bell decides to bounce the play to his right because of his fixation on the edge defender’s head inside the tight end. When focusing solely on the first level, this is the correct read. However, within context of the play design and the defensive back, it’s all wrong. This bounce outside will also give the linebacker outside leverage on the fullback.

Bell works across the back of his tight end in the frame below and at that point, the play is over. The edge defender pops outside as the safety continues shooting the inside gap. Bell realizes he has made a mistake midway through his gap and displays the tentative nature that can plague any good zone runner when he makes a bad decision.

Now Bell engages in some unproductive, wishful thinking and tries to revisit the inside gap. The safety shows Bell why it’s too late.

Bell is now forced to plow through the defender to reach the line of scrimmage and earn minimal yardage. If he didn’t get greedy, he might have earned four yards with good pad level, downhill momentum, and a leg drive if he displayed greater maturity.

Bell is a good, young player in a difficult position. The Steelers’ offensive line is struggling, the coaching staff is under pressure, and it’s possible we might see a new offensive system – if not a new staff – in 2014. If Pittsburgh has a different coach next year, Bell – and what he does best as a runner – might not be the best fit for this organization. It will be easy to view the rookie as part of the problem.

If you look at Bell’s skills and decision-making on the field, he’s one issue away from upping his 3.1 yards-per-carry average to the 4.1-4.3 range. Bell needs to study these down and distance situations, do a better job reading the field, and repeat after me when he sees them: Don’t be a hero.

Bryce Brown and the NFL Parable of the Backup RB

November 17, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Running Back

[youtube=http://youtu.be/9nBxvvB8UDo]

This parable begins with Ricky Watters. The former 49er, Eagles, and Seahawk sports a mediocre career yards per carry average of 4.1 and bad rap for saying to the media “For who, for what?”. Granted, Watters earned his reputation as running back with a diva wide receiver mentality for celebrating runs under 20 yards with animated celebrations and public criticism of former offensive coordinator John Gruden. He’s also in the news recently for unacceptable behavior as a high school coach.

When it comes to talking about Watters’ skills as a runner, it’s all noise that masks the power, agility, versatility, and durability of an instinctive and valuable football player. From 1994-2000, Watters touched the ball no fewer than 333 times per season. During this span his season totals were no worse than 1110 yards rushing, 40 receptions, 7 touchdowns, and 1550 total yards from scrimmage. And the fact he never missed a game during this seven-year span belies his “For who, for what?’ reputation.

In 2000, Watters was the bell cow of the Seattle Seahawks on his way to posting 1855 yards from scrimmage, which matched a career high that he earned 5 years earlier in Philadelphia. It was the year before Watters would just play four games before retiring from football because, already fearful of air travel, he no longer wished to fly in a post-9-11 America.

Watters’ unexpected farewell to the game didn’t leave the Seahawks empty-handed. Before the 2000 season, Seattle picked Alabama runner Shaun Alexander with the 19th overall pick in the NFL Draft and felt so confident in its depth that it made a trade with Green Bay that sent the Seahawks’ third-string runner and a fifth round pick to the Packers for a sixth round pick and defensive back Fred Vinson.

Vinson was a second round pick in 1999 who, not long into his Seattle career, injured his knee in a basketball game and never made a meaningful contribution to the team. The Packers got the better end of the stick. The runner it received in return was Ahman Green, the third round pick of the Seahawks in 1998.

Green was 21 when he left Nebraska for the NFL. He didn’t start a game during his tenure in Seattle, earning all of 61 carries, 329 yards rushing, 3 catches for 2 years, and a touchdown. From the get go in Green Bay, the Seahawks de facto third string runner before the trade earned five straight 1000-yard seasons.

Ahman Green’s Production (2000-2004)


Year	G	GS	Att	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A	Y/G	A/G	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Lng
2000	16	11	263	1175	10	39	4.5	73.4	16.4	73	559	7.7	3	31
2001*	16	16	304	1387	9	83	4.6	86.7	19.0	62	594	9.6	2	42
2002*	14	14	286	1240	7	43	4.3	88.6	20.4	57	393	6.9	2	23
2003*	16	16	355	1883	15	98	5.3	117.7	22.2	50	367	7.3	5	27
2004*	15	15	259	1163	7	90	4.5	77.5	17.3	40	275	6.9	1	48

We don’t know why the Seahawks preferred to pick Alexander in the first round when it had a back of Green’s caliber on its bench. However, Seattle isn’t the only team to deal away backup runners who succeeded elsewhere. Priest Holmes had a 1268 yards from scrimmage and 7 touchdowns for the Ravens in 1998 as a second-year undrafted free agent. After Holmes only played part of the 1999 season, the Ravens picked Jamal Lewis in 2000 and dealt Holmes to the Chiefs in 2001.

One can imagine the Ravens didn’t believe Holmes was a good fit as a power runner due to his size and feared the back would not be durable. While Baltimore was correct with its long view of the two players, Holmes had three seasons between 2001-2003 where he only missed two games and accumulated 960 carries,6587 yards, and 61 total touchdowns. Lewis was no slouch but even with 2271 total yards in 2003, the Ravens runner missed the 2001 season due to an ACL injury and accumulated only 695 carries, 4040 total yards, and 21 total touchdowns during the same span of Holmes’ reign with the Chiefs.

Cedric Benson didn’t fit with the Bears from 2005-2007 and never had more than 674 yards rushing in a season with Chicago. However, he had three straight 1000-yard seasons for the Bengals. Michael Turner toiled behind LaDainian Tomlinson for four years but had three seasons in four years with Atlanta where he gained no less than 1340 yards on the ground and four straight seasons with at least 10 rushing touchdowns.

Tiki Barber was a role player for the Giants from 1997-1999, but from 2000-2006 he had six 1000-yard seasons during that seven-year span, including rushing totals of 1518, 1860, and 1662 during his final three years in New York. Stephen Davis, a back with four years out of five with no less than 1318 yards rushing in Washington and Carolina, was a reserve for his first three years in the league and only tallied 815 yards on the ground during that span.

So when I tell you to be patient with the likes of Eagles runner Bryce Brown, think of these backs that took me longer to write about than it to do find them as fits with my overall point. I profiled Brown as a blue chip talent despite a less than ordinary and uninspiring college career. Today, I’m revisiting Brown during his second year to see if his talent still merits patience. The answer is a resounding yes.

Near-Freakish Size-Acceleration-Agility

Here’s a run last week against Green Bay where Brown provides fans and opponents a glimpse of his eye-opening skill. This is a run designed to go off tackle where the Packers penetrate the edge and have an angle on the runner, but Brown’s speed, balance, and agility belie his size.

You can see Brown is forced to make his bend outside as soon as he takes the exchange, because of penetration up the middle. This forces a race from the beginning and based on the penetration at the edge, Brown is at a disadvantage in terms of angles. But you’ll see why speed can erase some of a team’s ills.

Brown accelerates and turns the corner on the tackle and once he does, he has a nice alley up the sideline to reach the line of scrimmage.

Although difficult to see with still photos, the acceleration it took to reach this corner is often too much for a runner to bend the run at this angle up the sideline. Not so for Brown, who then finds his second gear to burst up the boundary for the first down.

Then here comes the Reggie Bush at USC move of cutting the run to the inside after generating a ton of momentum. Check out how sharp Brown’s angle is on this cutback after he makes a minor dip inside No.52 at the sideline.

This is as close to a 90-degree cut as you’re going to see from a running back in this situation. While he eventually slips to the ground trying to make a second cut in the open field, the acceleration and control is on par with LeSean McCoy, a back two inches shorter and at least 10 pounds lighter.

Vision-Balance-Strength

Brown’s strength, quickness, and reaction time is also on display with another play in this game where many NFL starters would have been dropped for a loss. This is a 12 personnel pistol run designed to go with his line slanting to the left, but the penetration forces a cutback to the right edge.

As Brown takes the exchange he spots No.53 flying down the line as the backside pursuit without a shot of a teammate blocking this Packer. The angle is clear that Brown gets hit before he reaches the line of scrimmage if he continues his path down hill. It’s impressive that Brown spotted this possibility before the snap and even more impressive that he could diagnose the angle with his peripheral vision while taking the exchange at an angle away from this pursuit.

Brown plants his left foot and makes a sharp cut outside the pursuit, but with second defender coming down hill unblocked, Brown appears dead to rights.

However, the pad level is good enough to get under the first hit. Still, Brown’s pad level doesn’t create great leverage here; this is raw strength and balance.

Brown runs through the first wrap two yards behind the line and during this run he has to step over the second defender.

There is a similar a play I saw Eddie Lacy make at Alabama.

Brown turns a loss of three into a gain of four with his vision before and after the snap as well as his elite athleticism. This is the type of play we see his teammate McCoy make. We also see it from the likes of Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, and Jamaal Charles.

Brown still has lessons to learn as he develops his NFL game, but flashes like these encourage me to believe this second year runner has the talent to do what Green did after leaving the Seahawks for the Packers.

Futures at Football Outsiders: OK St. CB Justin Gilbert

November 16, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players

Justin Gilbert has always been a talented athlete, but he has demonstrated technical improvement that is upping his draft stock. Photo by KT King.

He could be good, but he could be bad. It could be said about every player transitioning from college football to the NFL. When reading scouting reports and draft day analysis, it can seem like this is the basic assessment of every prospect.

Most Internet scouting reports aren’t written with the purpose of the analyst hedging his bets. The intent is to cover the full spectrum of a player’s strengths and weaknesses. But if not careful, the overall product appears wishy-washy.

In all fairness, every year there are prospects that merit this kind of “he could be good, but he could be bad” analysis. It’s understandable when considering the context of the times. The size of the NFL draft is smaller than any time in the modern era of football. Physical talent is better and the concentration of that athleticism is often as good at the top of the draft as it is at the bottom. It’s why we read about undrafted free agents who at one time were considered first-day prospects.

Rookie receiver Da’Rick Rogers -– a street free agent who tried out with the Buffalo Bills this summer and got cut -– is on the cusp of earning significant playing time this month for the Colts. With a playing style that reminded me a lot of Dwayne Bowe but with greater short area agility, there was a time Rogers was every bit the prospect – if not better – than his fellow Tennessee Volunteers matriculates. It’s a list that includes the likes of Justin Hunter, Denarius Moore, and Kenbrell Thompkins (although Thompkins never played a down in orange and white, opting out when Lane Kiffin left campus). It was Rogers’ off-field behavior that put him on outside looking in when the NFL held it’s annual “April Rush.”

Entering the 2013 season, Oklahoma State cornerback Justin Gilbert also had a wish-washy scouting report despite an on-field game that was brimming with confidence. Gilbert has first-day athleticism and versatility, but junior year lapses with technique and judgment made him the type of player who elicited a wide range of draft day possibilities before his senior year.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

QB Case Keenum: Color Me Impressed

November 12, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Quarterback

Case Keenum is the most surprising bench player in the NFL this year. I’ve studied his three starts and I believe the Cardinals defense provided the best evidence that the Texans’ new starter has the potential to succeed long-term.

I’ve kept a close eye on Case Keenum for the past three weeks. The first-time starter was solid against a brash Kansas City defense that loaded the box and dared the quarterback to make quick decisions. The Colts tried a similar approach and Keenum made them pay with an aggressive vertical game. Although the Chiefs have a better overall defense in the stats column, last weekend’s game versus the Cardinals was Keenum’s stiffest test to date, and the quarterback impressed me with his poise and maturity.

Arizona presented a true litmus test for Keenum, because its pass rush is most dangerous up the middle. Daryl Washington and Karlos Dansby can wreak havoc on a passing game when the Cardinals use them in conjunction with Darnell Dockett to penetrate the pocket through the A gaps. How a quarterback handles A-gap pressure is a great indicator of his poise and maturity. Keenum had some rough moments, but far fewer than I expected.

Initiation Phase

The first play of the game featured John Abraham making a strip-sack-fumble recovery for a touchdown off the edge. The Cardinals smell blood and the second offensive play of the game is an illustration of what pressure up the middle can do to a quarterback. Although the Cardinals fail to force the turnover, it should have been 14-0 Arizona after two plays.

Keenum is facing another defense with one safety high. His check-downs on this play are his fullback and receiver Andre Johnson running the cross. His deeper routes are the tight end and DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins has single coverage, but the development of the play forces Keenum to abandon a deeper throw. I haven’t had a chance to access the All-22 on this play, so while it’s possible Keenum lacked the anticipation and confidence deliver the ball to Hopkins, past performance dictates it’s unlikely – especially with the corner peeking into the backfield from the get-go on this play.

Keenum looks to the safety as he begins his drop from center. It’s worth noting that Keenum is earning more looks from center as he earns more starts, but the quarterback still spends a majority of his time in the pistol or the shotgun. The motor coordination to read the field and execute on a drop from center is more difficult than a drop from the other two formations: More steps, more momentum to control, and more reads to make closer to the line while on the move. While I believe it is overstated, one of the reasons teams favor tall quarterbacks in a traditional pocket game from center is the ability to see over some of the passing lanes when closer to the line of scrimmage.

As Keenum completes his drop, the Cardinals defense has the tight end well-covered and neither of the shallow routes are at the stage of breaking open. At the same time, the right guard is getting bulldozed into the pocket and Keenum’s path.

Keenum is a mobile player, but what are his options? If he moves right, he gives the edge rusher a free path. If he slides to his left, the linebacker on the fullback has a shot to make the play and there’s still the defensive tackle crashing the middle who has the inside shoulder of the guard and the angle to pursue without resistance.

Keenum does the right thing by staying in the pocket. In contrast, here’s the mobile Seneca Wallace on Sunday leaning too hard on his mobility in a similar situation.

Wallace has two receivers to his left and one to his right. This play will end with Wallace in the right flat desperately trying to get rid of the ball to one receiver and the whole orchestration is his doing – and ultimately his undoing as the Packers’ starter in short order.

Interior pressure begins to build off right guard in the photo above. Although the pressure isn’t nearly as intrusive as what Keenum experiences, watch Wallace perceive the pressure and react to his right.

This opens the pursuit lane for the edge defender off right tackle and Wallace has just made his job even more difficult. If he remained patient in the pocket, he would have had more options to target in the passing game. This move to the right cuts off half the field and two-thirds of the receivers he has running routes at the moment.

Look below and you can see the defensive lineman also have open pursuit lanes to the flat. Instead of one defensive tackle pushing the pocket up the middle – who, by the way gets addressed when the guard recovers enough to shore up his protection – now Wallace has three defenders with angles on him for a sack.

Moreover, there’s only one receiver for Wallace to target. This is at least until the tight end breaks from the line of scrimmage and releases as an outlet that Wallace would have to target with a throw across his body while on the move.

Wallace has to deliver a pump fake to freeze the defense before targeting his receiver returning up the sideline for a whopping completion of . . .

Negative yardage before the receiver becomes a ball carrier. This play isn’t about physical ability. Wallace has enough speed and arm strength to play in the league. What he lacks on this play is the ability to stay in the pocket at the first sign of pressure or the knowledge of where he should break the pocket to maximize his chances for a positive play and minimize the potential of a negative one. Wallace also injures his groin on this play and left the game.

Keenum, demonstrates this patience Wallace lacked and it’s clear from this game that he doesn’t perceive pressure too early. He stands his ground, waits for the crossing route to come open, and delivers the ball from the pocket. The problem is that the crossing route is never really open. Keenum, in a hurry due to the pressure up the middle, forgets that the safety has position to come over the top to cut off the target. This is why more patience with the single coverage or throwing the ball away might have been wiser options. I would have also considered sliding left and throwing the ball away if Keenum couldn’t bait the linebacker to come downhill.

As the ball arrives (see below), the safety comes over the top. If he makes this catch there is a ton of green grass and blockers to pave the way for a pick-six. Imagine the complexion of this game with Arizona up 14-0 after two plays – and two Keenum turnovers. Could this have altered Keenum’s confidence? Possibly. However, I’d like to think that the same guy who listened to Cris Collinsworth say, “You’re not exactly 6’6″ . . . ” and responded, “Not yet . . .” without missing a beat, would have the confidence not to retreat into a shell.

The question is irrelevant now; the safety gets his hands on the ball, but cannot secure the interception.

Keenum lives for another play. After this trial by fire, the Texans quarterback learns from the experience and begins to make wiser plays under heavier pressure.

Outside Pressure

The first-year starter’s highlight plays have often been flights from pressure where he flushed to one side of the of the field and throws the ball deep. Fun plays to watch, but what about pressure situations where the defense forces Keenum to exhibit more control? This 2nd-and-14 play in the first quarter is a great example of Keenum doing just that.

Keenum has two vertical routes inside with his outside bunch receiver Hopkins crossing the middle. Houston’s fullback runs a flat route on this play-action pass.

Keenum finishes the play fake and the defense, sending five and dropping six, has strong intermediate and short coverage in the middle of the field. The pressure will come from Keenum’s blind side.

Keenum feels the pressure working loose from the left as he finishes his drop and does a good job of climbing the pocket in rhythm.

His eyes stay focused downfield and he’s able to see three options: Hopkins on the cross, Johnson in the middle of the field, and the fullback in the flat.

As Keenum works towards the line of scrimmage, this forces the secondary to slide to Keenum’s right and towards the pocket. Keenum’s movement opens the fullback in the flat.

The fact that Keenum climbs the pocket in rhythm helps the quarterback keep his feet under him to deliver an accurate throw.

First down.

Restraint

Pressure forces impulsive behavior, especially interior pressure. However, Keenum exhibits the poise of a veteran in a situation where many veterans turn their back to the pressure or force the ball into coverage. The play begins with Hopkins and Johnson running dual crossing routes, the tight end stretching the seam, and the fullback running a wheel route to the left sideline. The Cardinals send five defenders to the pocket, running a twist with John Abraham working from the right edge to the middle.

Keenum is again under center, so there’s more to process on the move with less field to see at the early stages of his drop.

As Keenum finishes his drop, Abraham is making his way to an open lane up the middle. As you can see, the Texans receivers are well covered with the exception of Tate in the right flat. Even Tate isn’t a great option, because he’s seven yards behind in the line of scrimmage with a Karlos Dansby waiting in the flat. Considering that Dansby has 78 tackles this year and a huge majority of them unassisted, Keenum is seeking better options.

Nothing comes open within the next beat and the defense is constricting the pocket. Keenum has no running lane, but what he does display is a quarterback’s best friend if he can execute it: a pump fake.

Keenum flashes the ball, freezes the defense, and opens a crease in the pocket with this move. Not all quarterbacks have the skill to execute a good pump fake. Those that do often lack the awareness of when to use it.

Keenum’s pump fake gives him second life in the pocket. He keeps his eyes down field, slides to his left, and when nothing comes open, delivers a second pump fake. I love the small slide. Many NFL quarterbacks in this situation would have turned their backs to the defense and tried to roll away from the inside pressure 2-3 frames ago. This is the type of poise that is proving the Texans coaching staff right about Keenum and something they must have seen enough in practice to hope he could display it when the lights came on.

At this point, Keenum freezes the secondary and this buys him just enough time to flee the pocket to the left flat.

I also like that Keenum opts to slide with plenty of room to avoid a huge hit. Another small sign of maturity that I hope is a pattern for him during his development.

Third and short is much better than most of the consequences that could have come from this play.

Patience With Eyes And Feet

This touchdown pass is essentially a two-man route using play action. Andre Johnson makes one of two fantastic catches in this game, but Keenum does a ton to make his play happen.

This is a max protection scheme where the fullback and running back block and eventually release from the line of scrimmage as receivers once the play breaks down. The quarterback has to execute a strong play fake, patience, and excellent pass placement against a zone defense that has a lot of defenders occupying very little space.

Keenum begins the play with his back turned to the line of scrimmage while executing the play fake with good extension of the ball towards the running back.

The initial action is good, but Keenum’s decision to duck lower to sell the fake is an added touch that forces the linebackers up field.

Once Keenum finishes his drop he’s staring at Hopkins crossing between four defenders in a tight zone over the middle. What I like is that Keenum remains patient and sells the defense on the idea that he’s waiting for Hopkins to clear the middle and deliver the ball in that direction.

It helps that Keenum’s second look continues along the trajectory of Hopkins’ break, but also gives the quarterback the opportunity to spot Johnson running the opposite direction behind Hopkins. This is a conceptual benefit to routes that crisscross at various depths.

As Keenum spots Johnson breaking open from left to right, the interior pressure makes its way into the pocket. Keenum has time to slide to his right to avoid a hit, but if he does he likely tips off Johnson’s cross and forces a scramble drill to the right side where the defense will flow to the area and eliminate any openings.

Keenum stands his ground and delivers the ball to a spot where only Johnson can make the catch. It’s a 25-yard throw that requires good timing and velocity with a 300-plus-pounder breathing down his back.

Johnson makes an excellent catch at the boundary for the score, but it’s Keenum’s play fake, use of his eyes to hold the defense in the middle of the field, and the willingness to stand his ground to deliver a strike that sets up the highlight reel play.

The Blurry Line Between Patience and Hesitation

Not everything Keenum did was good without question. Here’s a second-quarter play where Keenum converts the first down after leaving the pocket, but I wonder if he forced the scramble because he was hesitant to act on what he saw. This is 2nd-and-six pass where interior pressure forces Keenum to flush right, but did Keenum wait too long? See for yourself.

Keenum’s primary read is the tight end in the slot running an out at the first down marker. Good anticipation on this play would be for Keenum to deliver the ball just as the receiver begins his break (at the top of his stem).

This is the top of the receiver’s stem and Keenum should be in the middle of his release if he’s going to deliver the ball with impeccable timing. However, the cornerback is sitting on this route. It posses a good question: Is the tight end open? Based on the position of the corner to the outside with his pads downhill, I think Keenum made a wise choice not to throw the ball. However, you can see below that he’s still thinking about it for another beat.

As the tight end makes his break, you can see that the defensive back has a clear angle to cut off the throw and it’s a pick-six if he wins. If he loses, the tight end might have possession with the corner flying up the sideline in the opposite directon without the ball, but it’s a risky play. Meanwhile, the defensive tackle is working inside the left guard and the window of protection is closing in this pocket.

Many a reckless or freaked out quarterback under pressure still throws the pass at this point, but to Keenum’s credit he’s not one of them. This consistent interior pressure is something I’ve been waiting to see Keenum face before I could give an opinion on what I think of the quarterback long-term. Now that I see how he handles interior pressure, I think the quarterback has the goods to remain in the league for a long time as a contributor on some level – at least as a high-end backup or short-term starter. Perhaps more if he can demonstrate the ability to overcome what defensive coordinators will do to game plan against Keenum once they see enough of him on film.

There’s no climbing the pocket on this play. Keenum must retreat, reset, and choose a direction to roll.

The Texans’ starter does a good job keeping his eyes downfield and his body ready to deliver the ball as he moves to the right flat.

Solid technique to throw with his feet mostly under him as he spots the receiver coming back to him at the sideline.

First down.

Lingering Concerns: Reading The Middle of The Field

The most difficult area of the field to master for a quarterback is the middle. Defenders are changing positions, disguising zones, and demonstrate more range than most young quarterbacks are used to seeing most weeks at the college level. This is the last great frontier for Keenum’s development.

This play from the Texans’ end zone is a lucky outcome of a bad decision and it exemplifies the pass protection skills of linebackers the Keenum isn’t used to seeing outside of perhaps his old buddy Phillip Steward at Houston. Playing the bigger, faster, more experienced version of Steward is veteran linebacker Karlos Dansby – one of my favorite vets in the game today.

Keenum begins this 3rd-and-7 with his receivers tight to the formation. His primary read will be Hopkins, the outside receiver in the left flat. Dansby, circled below, reads Keenum’s eyes, gauges the receiver and works to his spot in the zone to defend the pass.

Dansby, who has played both inside and outside linebacker with success in the NFL, is a known for his skill as a pass defender despite the fact that he was an excellent blitzer as an inside player at Auburn – and now during his second stint in Arizona.

Keenum does not anticipate the drop or he believes he can fit the ball over Dansby to Hopkins. This proves to be a tighter window than he anticipates.

Dansby high-points the ball, nearly intercepting it with room up the flat to score if he does. Instead, the ball flies through his mitts and into the arms of the rookie Hopkins.

The receiver makes the catch, turns up field, and turns a disastrous decision into a fine play. Good outcome, bad process.

Throughout this game, Arizona sent pressure up the middle and Keenum demonstrated the awareness to throw the ball away, scramble to an open spot as a runner, and even in some cases take the sack rather than risk a turnover. With 5:15 left and down by 10, Keenum opts to take a risk. This is a good example of what some coaches or analysts will call “pressing”, when the quarterback tries to force the ball to make a play when the team is behind. It’s a negative connotation, but there are points in a game where the quarterback has to take chances or the game will end.

At this point in the game, I can see how Keenum might feel this is the time to gamble. It’s a two-possession game and even if the Texans can score in the next two plays, it might run another 30-45 seconds off the clock. A player like Manning or Brees might not press in this situation, knowing that the offense is built for big plays and high tempo. The Texans haven’t been built in that image.

Keenum has three deeper routes and one crossing route on this play. The Cardinals send an inside linebacker and safety up the middle on a blitz to disrupt Keenum’s process, dropping the outside linebacker at the left hash into coverage of the shallow zone.

Keenum takes his drop looking at the deep coverage. All three deep routes are accounted for, save potentially a deep throw up the left sideline to Hopkins, but Patrick Peterson is on the rookie with outside technique. Considering that Keenum lacks a great arm and this is an opposite-hash throw to one of the better press corners in football, it’s not going to happen.

Once Keenum reads the deep zone, the pressure is already coming. Keenum sees the shallow cross, but he doesn’t have a strong sense of the passing lane where he’s delivering the ball. There are two players of defense at Keenum’s left in position to defend this throw. As we saw earlier, the young quarterback still isn’t used to the level of athleticism of linebackers and defensive linemen.

Keenum forces the ball on the cross as he’s hit. The first defender tips the ball skyward.

The second defender nearly makes a play on the ball. This is one of three potential interceptions that Keenum could have thrown in this game and two of these plays had a strong shot of becoming pick-sixes.

I could tell you that I think the Texans’ starter is going to become a good starter in the NFL – and I like his chances more than I did three weeks ago. Keenum may lack the great arm or size, but he has all the tools to help an offense compete every week. But based on what I’m watching I’d just be rolling the dice if I told you he’s a passer with a future to bet on.

Keenum has shown me enough that I think he’s a good player and a bargain. That said, I like his poise, pocket presence, and aggressive mentality. If he can maintain those three qualities and get better at reading defenses, he has a shot to maintain the starting job in Houston for longer than this year.

NFL Closeup: WR Jordy Nelson vs. Bump and Run

November 12, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Wide Receiver

Does Jordy Nelson look "undersized" to you? This was one of the worst answers of the contest. Note to contestant: I'm laughing with you buddy, not at you. Plus, you can laugh at the guy that gave Mohamed Sanu as an answer. Photo by Elvis Kennedy. — Does Jordy Nelson look “undersized” to you? Photo by Elvis Kennedy.

I would love to take 20 receivers, place them in four groups of five players based on height and weight range, dress them in uniforms that cover their skin head to toe, and have them scrimmage with cornerbacks on tape. While they’re playing, I’d give the audience the names of the players in each group, and have them guess the players’ identities based on what they saw (and didn’t see). If I could pull this off, I believe Jordy Nelson would be the player with the most incorrect guesses of his identity. Big, physical, and comfortable making big catches against tight coverage, Jordy Nelson is a modern-day Michael Irvin minus the swagger and the melanin.

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The Nelson-Aaron Rodgers combo is among the best in football at the back-shoulder fade. One of the reasons this play remains so effective for the Packers’ duo is that Nelson is equally strong at earning separation against press coverage and winning 50/50 balls in the vertical game. Defenders cannot assume every deep pass is a back-shoulder play.

Here’s Nelson working with journeyman quarterback Scott Tolzein against second-year cornerback Brandon Boykin in press coverage. Nelson has a significant size advantage, but Boykin is pound-for-pound one of the stronger and more explosive players for his size. Boykin is a feisty corner who can mix it up with a receiver, out-leap his competition, and if he gets his hands on the ball, make like a top-tier return specialist. Boykin has a chance to develop into a player along the lines of Brent Grimes.

The route begins with an outside release on Boykin. For the next 10-12 frames, pay attention to Nelson’s inside arm. How he uses it to work through contact, but also to set up position by maintaining intermittent contact with Boykin. Although Michael Irvin was often accused of pushing off defenders – and sometimes he did – a good wide receiver knows how to use his arms to “frame” space without pushing the opponent.

Nelson’s inside arm is cocked at an angle where he’ll soon turn his shoulder away from Boykin’s initial contact. The angle of Nelson’s arm and his shoulder turn is to prevent Boykin from getting his hands into Nelson’s chest. If Boykin gets into Nelson’s body the contact could really slow the receiver or alter the direction of the route.

As Nelson works towards the numbers, he raises his forearm to meet Boykin’s contact and maintain a barrier between his body and Boykin’s hands. This is a technique used in several press coverage drills for receivers. I see it taught year after year at the Senior Bowl.

As Nelson raises the arm to meet Boykin’s contact, the receiver then extends his arm into Boykin’s chest. This requires a size, strength, leverage advantage that Nelson possesses against most cornerbacks.

Note the change in Boykin’s body lean once Nelson locks his arm out and into the corner’s back shoulder. Boykin is fully upright and almost leaning backwards, which slows the defender’s stride, throws off his balance, and prevents further contact. It also sets the stage for Nelson to maintain this horizontal space with the defender, which will be more important for a sideline fade than vertical separation.

The arm extension earns Nelson a couple of feet outside Boykin with a lot of room to slide towards the boundary if needed. Some routes require a receiver to bet his back to the defender and control the vertical space. This route is all about the room to roam side-to-side. Nelson is patient about setting up this separation because he knows that he needs that space between himself and the boundary during the final phase of the route. Giving it up too early will make his quarterback’s throw more difficult and give Nelson less room to operate and the advantage to Boykin, who could then suffocate Nelson to the sideline – something Darrelle Revis is excellent at doing to receivers.

As Nelson and Boykin look for the target, watch how the receiver renews contact with Boykin. This serves two purposes. First, it allows Nelson to define the space between him and Boykin. It also gives Boykin a false sense of security that he’s still in good position against Nelson while looking for the ball.

Nelson slips his inside arm under Boykin’s outside arm, bracing the defender’s ribs as they run down field. I don’t know if Nelson meant to place his arm in this exact location or if placing his arm on Boykin’s arm or shoulder would have been just as acceptable. It’s a question I would love to ask Nelson. If it’s intentional, I would imagine it gives Nelson more leverage to prevent Boykin from pushing the receiver tight to the boundary. If Nelson had his arm on Boykin’s arm, the corner could extend his arm and force Nelson outside with greater ease. At the same time, I have to think that Boykin could clamp his arm to his side and prevent Nelson from pulling his arm free without a struggle.

Nelson removes his arm as the ball draws near and begins to uses some of that horizontal space. Note in the next photo that Nelson doesn’t use all of this space, because he knows once he makes the initial catch he’ll need room to shield the defender from the ball and get both feet in bounds.

Nelson is first to get his arms extended and he displays good technique with his fingers skyward, palms out, and elbows close enough so his hands will converge on the football.

Nelson high-points the ball inches above Boykin’s reach. The arrow shows where Nelson will move his arms to prevent the cornerback from swatting the ball free. This is such a minor detail, but the awareness pull the ball backwards and then bring it towards his body is why Nelson is one of the best deep threats in the game.

As Boykin swats at air, Nelson begins to turn his back to the defender so he can tuck the ball to his sideline and work up the sideline.

Look below and note that both hands remain on the ball even at belt level until Nelson can tuck the ball to one side.

Both feet are in bounds, the ball is tucked, and his back is to both defenders.

Although Nelson doesn’t stay inside the boundary, it’s a fine play that puts Green Bay in the red zone. Say what you will about a physical mismatch, but there are dozens of NFL receivers Boykin would have beaten in this situation despite giving up height, strength, and speed. Nelson’s ability to earn separation early, bait Boykin in the middle of the route, renew separation late, and make small adjustments to maintain separation during the reception is what makes this former Kansas State starter with 4.55-speed one of the better deep threats in football.

A Prayer for Sammy Watkins

November 7, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Wide Receiver

Watkins has the upside to lap the field of some fine receiver prospects when it comes to NFL potential. Photo by PDA.Photo.

When I watch the Clemson receiver, I find myself in a mode of prayerful thought. I know it’s probably wrong to ask for something this selfish, but I want a player like Watkins on my team and if I have to resort to the good entity upstairs, well . . . that’s what crazy fans do, right?

Dear Lord,

Thank you for my health, my family, my job, and the strength and whatever wisdom I’ve gleaned to live each day. I don’t like to bother you with trivial things because I imagine you have far weightier concerns about what’s going on down here like all the wars we’re fighting, child slavery, famine, and corruption. Of course, this could all be some sort of divine machination like some philosophers believe and it’s all part of a grand plan.

If that’s the case I might just be wasting my time fretting to you about it. If they’re wrong, however, I’d like to make a miniscule request that, if it fits within the rhythm of the universe and doesn’t cause harm to anyone – perhaps with the exception of emotional damage to 49ers fans – I’m hoping you’ll make so:

Would you please have the Seattle Seahawks draft Sammy Watkins?

How tempting it is for me to make this a legitimate prayer. I find myself thinking it the more I watch Watkins – especially last night when I took in the Clemson-Florida State debacle. Devonta Freeman was impressive, Rashad Greene was scintillating, and Jameis Winston has been spectacular, but hands-down Watkins is the best wide receiver prospect in this draft class if he comes out.

I know some of you Pac-10 wonks will shout the refrain of Marqise Lee. You already have several times and I know there’s no medicine for your SoCal Tourette Syndrome. I agree that Lee is a good one But if Watkins is alongside Lee, I’m taking the Clemson Tiger in every scenario.

Catch Radius-Hands

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This is a simple concept – a short cross – but the execution is far more demanding thanks to Tajh Boyd’s errant throw and Watkins’ underrated catch. A throw that’s low and away while on the run is one of the more difficult adjustments to make on a target. Watkins makes it look routine. Watch enough NFL games and this is the type of play that the average veteran in a starting lineup makes.

Then look at the presence of mind to get the pads downhill and make a beeline for the first down marker. Although we’ve seen Watkins make his share of defenders miss, he’s far more consistent at knowing when to dispense with the bells and whistles of agility and handle the primary job of earning the first down.

Here’s another underrated demonstration of catch radius on a slant for a touchdown – a play where a majority of NFL players in this situation drop the ball. Even top prospects entering the league drop this pass and get fans questioning whether the player really is all that good. Then, when they make the play the next week-month-year fans promptly forget that the capability was there all long. Watkins will likely be one of those players.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/iIEGWBcvHbQ]

Once again, an errant throw from Boyd (see a pattern) and Watkins has to lean the opposite direction of his break to extend his arms for the ball, make the catch, and hit the ground after contact. The consistent technique to extend his arms and catch the ball with his hands earns Watkins second chances in situations like the one above.

Route Depth and Boundary Awareness

These are two things that Watkins – once he gets acclimated to the advanced level of the NFL game – will make him a primary receiver for an offense. Watch this third-down play and note how he breaks to the quarterback, maintains good route depth, and makes the catch with great technique despite a defender draped on his back.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/YtivJhrJARM]

Moreover, look at Watkins drag his feet. The receiver’s ability to integrate all of these skills into one play is an indication that Watkins has ingrained many of these techniques into his game with hard work. This is advanced receiving. Watkins is a receiver I expect to have a productive rookie year.

Physicality

This block is hard to see and it’s a play that catches the cornerback by surprise. Still, I love Watkins’ hustle.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/xIGgl-8IJN4]

It’s a great punch with good location and away from the flow of the play. It’s one of several small indications that I’ve shown that Watkins not only likes to play the game he likes to work at it. Combine that with great athleticism and natural gifts and just imagine the versatility the Seahawks would have with Percy Harvin, Golden Tate, and Sammy Watkins.

It probably won’t happen, but a man can hope, right? What I do know is that the team that gets Watkins will have some major prayers answered.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures at Football Outsiders: Baylor RB Lache Seastrunk

November 2, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back

This shot begins one of my favorite runs of the year, painted courtesy of Baylor's Lache Seastrunk. — This shot begins one of my favorite runs of the year, painted courtesy of Baylor’s Lache Seastrunk.

Futures: Baylor RB Lache Seastrunk

by Matt Waldman

There’s no position I enjoy watching more than running back. One of the reasons I love studying the position is that relative to other roles on the field, there’s a tremendous amount of diversity among players that can excel at the job.

No other position in football has such a wide range of acceptable physical dimensions. There was a time when Brandon Jacobs weighed 87 pounds more than Warrick Dunn. Both players sport multiple 1000-yard seasons. Adrian Peterson is almost a half-foot taller than Frank Gore, but they are about same weight and inspire similar frustration among opposing defenders.

Watch Peterson, Herschel Walker, and Bo Jackson and they seem chiseled from ebony. By comparison, Jerome Bettis and Craig “Ironhead: Heyward were amorphous lumps of clay. None were a joy to tackle.

Cleveland’s 6-foot-2, 232-pound fullback Jim Brown and Chicago’s 5-foot-10, 200-pound Walter Payton are far apart on the dimension spectrum of running backs, but is there any separation between them when it came to dying hard on every play? For that matter, is there anyone else even close?

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

NFL Closeup: Safety T.J. Ward’s Line of Scrimmage High Wire Act

November 1, 2013 0 Comments read Players

T.J. Ward's tackle of Jamaal Charles for a loss last Sunday is what makes football beautiful, predatory, and savage. Photo by BGSU86 — T.J. Ward’s tackle of Jamaal Charles for a loss last Sunday is what makes football beautiful, predatory, and savage. Photo by BGSU86

I love great running back play and this season, Jamaal Charles’ game qualifies. Charles and LeSean McCoy are two of the most elusive backs in the NFL who can also get the tough yards. Their skill at the sharp cut or layering moves upon moves in succession from these backs at the edge of the line of scrimmage or in the open field and it’s the beginning of the end a failed series for a defense.

One false move by the defender and whiff, off to the races. I may imagine that a Charles keeps defenders up at night, the motivation might be excitement more than fear. You have to be confident to play defense in the NFL – especially in today’s league where the rules are stacked against them.

Although fantasy football has influenced my tendencies to watch football from an offensive perspective, my personal DNA makeup is rooted more in defense when you examine the teams I’ve gravitated to as a fan.

Excellent press corner play
Physical and/or rangy safeties
Freakish edge rushers
Physical ground game

This describes much about the 1980s Cleveland Browns, the Jeff Fisher Tennessee Titans at the turn of the century, and Pete Carroll’s Seattle Seahawks. Throw in my love for the Lester Hayes-Mike Haynes corner combo in Oakland and you see what I’m saying.

But what comes to mind when I think of what I love about defense is watching a safety at the line of scrimmage. It’s an act of blatant, white-knuckled aggression and risk that turns the tide of a series or game one way or the other. Watching Browns safety T.J. Ward crowd the line of scrimmage to run blitz Jamal Charles at the edge is one of those high wire acts that is football at its most predatory, savage, and beautiful.

Ward is the safety at the right hash on this run designed for Charles to follow his fullback to the edge. Because it’s a zone play with double teams to the linebacker from the inside, Charles as multiple options and for a runner of his quickness and agility he’s at the apex of the ball carrier food chain when it comes to amazing cutbacks.

Ward is blitzing on this play and his job has more complexity than simply “tackle the runner.” That’s the best-case goal. However, the contingency plan if this doesn’t happen is to funnel Charles inside where there’s enough help to limit the Chiefs’ runner. With a runner like Charles who is the NFL’s Road Runner this is no guarantee for this week’s Wiley E. Coyotes from northeast Ohio to stop him.

Football is a game of angles and defenders know this better than anyone. Ward has to approach the line of scrimmage fast enough to set a position that forces Charles inside and earns the safety a shot to make the tackle. His potential obstacles to his spot are linemen, fullbacks, and the most slippery darter of a ball carrier in the NFL. To help Ward get in position, the Browns hope it’s edge defender can get penetration into the backfield and occupy or beat the fullback.

However, Ward still has to handle the tight end. This requires the speed, vision, and change of direction of a running back, but some of the same body control and technique of a defensive end rushing the edge on a pass play.

See Ward bending his hips and torso to corner the tight end at the line of scrimmage? The orange line is the path he ultimately takes to meet Charles in the backfield, but the outside loop is to prevent the runner from having this two-way go (red arrows) that is currently available at this stage of the play. If Ward slips or misses, Charles is outside the defense and in the flat, breaking ankles of Wards’ teammates.

Here’s that defensive end-like bend. He’s cornering like a motorcyle on a track and this not only gets Ward under the tight end’s interference, but also eliminates Charles’ option to bounce outside. Now, Ward has to explode with a 90-degree turn and hit through Charle’s legs and wrap tight. No easy task.

Charles still has a chance to work inside his fullback and dip to the middle of the line where the double teams have gotten enough traction for a positive gain, and there are enough Chiefs inside the right tackle that this could be a much bigger run than it looks. Note Ward’s arm approaching Charles over the knee. The higher a defender can grab a ball carrier, the more second-effort chances he has to wrap the player if he doesn’t get a secure hold initially. It’s a lot like a wide receiver extending his arms to attack a target at the earliest window – it affords more opportunities to make the play.

Ward slides from Charles’ knee to the feet and ankles to drop Charles for a short loss. While there’s a lot of help from his teammates, the individual athleticism and awareness of angles is as compelling as an acrobatic catch or open field run.

For analysis of offensive skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

“The Degradation of a Young Stud – Part I” Starring Robert Griffin

October 30, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Quarterback

There are a ton of questions, but no easy answers for the Washington offense.

Sounds like an adult film, right? It is and it isn’t. What I witnessed from Washington’s passing offense against Denver this weekend was so nasty it will compel viewers take a long shower afterwards. Equally disturbing is that this film possesses a lot of elements of an exploitation flick. I had a difficult time watching an innocent, young talent treated this way. Worst of all, it’s difficult to assess blame and there in lurks the elements of psychological horror that chills the blood.

What we’re witnessing with Robert Griffin is the side of the double-edged sword that can cut the wielder. Last year, Washington took the risk and went all-in with an offensive philosophy that leaned heavily on one exceptional skill set of a single player. This year, Robert Griffin – that individual who could diminish the collective weaknesses of his teammates – can’t do what he used to and his impairment is exploiting the weaknesses of this unit.

The knee injury offers the easiest answer to what’s ailing Griffin and Washington. However, there are more questions that I couldn’t shake when I watch the Denver game. Will Griffin ever regain his 2012 explosiveness? If he does, is this the best thing for his long-term development as an NFL quarterback? Is Washington’s offense stunting Griffin’s development in order to exploit his athleticism? Or, is this what happens when a team takes an aggressive approach to molding the scheme around its talent and that talent disappears? The horror is that there’s really no one to blame and feel satisfied.

Do you blame Griffin for getting hurt? Perhaps you blame Shanahan and Dr. James Andrews for not looking out for their rookie and the future of their team in a playoff game, but considering the culture of the players, the league, the fans, the media, and the coaches, it would be unrealistic and hypocritical.

Do you blame the Shanahans for developing an offense predicated on Griffin’s game-changing speed that has degraded from the genius of simplicity to just plain simplistic thanks to one anterior cruciate ligament? So we’ll laud Washington for maximizing what one player could do for the benefit of the organization last year, then criticize him for not knowing when or if that one player will return to the physical form required to make that offense take flight? Learn the second half of the phrase that starts Go big or . . .

Do you blame a weak offensive line that looked a lot better last year because one false move by a defense could lead to a 60-yard touchdown, putting the rest of the league on amber alert to every movement Griffin made between the snap of the ball and the official’s whistle? Do you blame Pierre Garcon for getting hurt and Washington’s patience with him and Griffin returning to form? Not me. Why would Washington try to revamp a team when it expects its quarterback to return to form at some point? There has to be some level of patience this year to determine if it will happen or if they’ll have to adjust.

I have no solutions to the questions that this performance raises, only sympathy.

The Knee Isn’t Firing on All Cylinders

My analysis begins with something I learned from Thursday night’s Carolina blowout of the Tampa Buccaneers, and it wasn’t on the field; it was an interview the analysts had with Darrelle Revis about his recovery from an ACL tear.

Revis consulted numerous players who had undergone the grueling rehab and returned the field. Most of them said that it was a bumpy ride where the knee would have moments where it would respond as old, but most of the athleticism wasn’t firing on all cylinders. They told Revis to remain patient and work through it. One day, the knee will respond, everything will fall into place, and he’ll feel back to normal.

When I’ve watched Griffin this season, I’ve seen him experiencing these ups and downs with his knee. This read option play against the Broncos illustrates that the initial quickness is back, but explosiveness required to make second and third moves back-to-back-to-back are not.

This is your garden-variety zone read play. You have your linemen engaging in a pair of double teams where one of the players in each double team is supposed to work his way to a linebacker, the receivers run off their coverage, and the H-Back serves as Griffin’s lead blocker if the quarterback keeps the ball.

The play begins as designed. As you can see Denver’s defense is patient. The linebackers and safeties are remaining disciplined to the possibility of Griffin keeping this exchange and the defensive end is maintaining his gap responsibility rather than crashing down the line of scrimmage to attack the running back. This is something Griffin and the Washington offense is seeing more often and it is a contributing factor to the drop in the quarterback’s yards per carry average. If you ask me, it’s not the biggest reason; it’s the knee.

However on this play, the lead blocking could be a lot better. The H-Back doesn’t address the defensive end at all. Perhaps he’s taking an outside angle and expecting Griffin to do the same. Even so, the end is too quick and Griffin is too slow to bounce this outside with the angle the H-Back provides to the end without any resistance. Also note the safety at the left hash watching the play unfold. This is good depth. He’s still accounting for a potential crossing route from right to left so he’s above the receiver, but he’s well enough outside to stop Griffin if the quarterback breaks through the first level to the left flat.

The H-Back works past the end towards the safety, leaving Griffin to beat the defensive end. If the H-Back even gave so much as a shove on the end, perhaps Griffin could have taken the ball outside and still show the speed to get separation. I think the H-Back should have helped here. Even so, based on what I’ve seen thus far I don’t think Griffin wins this foot race to the edge and if he does, the explosion to turn the corner isn’t there. Griffin opts to use his good leg to avoid the defender. He plants this healthy knee into the ground, and spins inside the end to avoid the tackle.

As Griffin spins past the end, the H-Back has a good angle on the safety and it appears the running back is in position to work outside the left tackle Trent Williams to address the linebacker working outside Williams’ position. Once Griffin gets reoriented down hill, there’s enough space in the left flat for a positive gain.

At this point, the blocks should be setting up so Griffin will only have one unblocked man to beat and if it doesn’t happen, he should still pick up enough help from his teammates for a gain of 4-5 yards. The problem is the H-Back, who overruns his angle to the safety.

To compound matters, the H-Back isn’t fast enough to recover as Griffin attempts to bounce this run to the edge. Last year, Griffin had the explosion to drive off that braced knee and get outside No.82 if that H-Back actually gauged the correct angle to seal the safety inside. This year, no chance; there isn’t enough explosiveness to gloss over a poor angle from a teammate.

Play over.

At this point, Griffin is about explosive as Aaron Rodgers. The Packers quarterback is a fine athlete capable of getting outside the pocket when flushed and he’ll gash a defense as a runner, but the Packers don’t design running plays as heavy part of its play-calling rotation. Understandably, Washington built its 2012 playoff team on the legs of Griffin. It’s also understandable why they didn’t change the offense after Griffin’s injury, hoping that the young quarterback would regain his explosion at some point during the season and the team could ride out the rough spots. It may still happen, but long-term is this what’s best for the team?

To be fair, if Washington did change the offense I have doubts the rest of the surrounding talent is capable of sustaining a high level of production for a pocket passer to thrive with the game’s current offensive concepts.

In its current incarnation, Kurt Cousins can’t run this offense close to the way a healthy Griffin can because he doesn’t break good defensive schemes with pure foot speed. Washington would have to change by necessity. However, the staff is clearly still holding out hope for old Griffin to return to form. This is the danger of designing an offense that leans so hard on one specific skill set of an individual player – especially a young passer who is still learning how to maximize his potential from the pocket.

As you will see below, this Washington offense – and really most offenses – is a delicately balanced series of processes that can go south fast when an integral part breaks. If you look closely at Atlanta’s scheme you’ll discover that the root cause of several ailments for the Falcons offense is Roddy White’s injury. He’s the one-on-one player that runs every style of route and possesses the timing with Matt Ryan to force opponents to single cover one of White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez on every play. He’s the player who makes teams pay in the intermediate range for biting on run fakes. And he’s the receiver who automatically draws the best cover corner even with a healthy Jones around.

When White started the season gimpy, the Falcons could still hit big plays to Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez but there wasn’t enough consistent production down-to-down and that prevented the team from building momentum with play-calling and maintaining an advantage. Washington’s pivotal player is Griffin because of the offense’s reliance on the zone read and all the play action, max protection, and simple route concepts that they were able to build off it due to a defense’s fear of Griffin’s speed.

Now Griffin doesn’t have that same caliber of speed and the team is in limbo, running plays that don’t match Griffin’s current skill or his intellectual-football potential as a passer.

Max Protection-Minimum Results

Here’s a play that would have worked just fine last year with a healthy Griffin, but defenses aren’t buying because they know the quarterback isn’t capable of selling it. Two games from now if the explosion returns, sure. But what if it’s four games, eight games, or never? Right now the play below is obsolete.

This is a diamond formation with two receivers at slot width from the line of scrimmage. These are the only two receivers running routes on this play against a Broncos defense that will drop six into coverage. Already, this doesn’t sound promising.

Griffin begins his drop and his three backs set a perimeter to assist the offensive line. If I didn’t know better, it would appear the coaches are so worried about Griffin’s knee that they’re adding a second layer of protection behind the offensive line to insure the quarterback earns a clean pocket to throw the deep ball without a hit to his legs. I think the coaches are worried more about the offensive line’s difficulty protecting Griffin while he guts through an ACL rehab in record time.

If Washington is going to max protect, shouldn’t they be expecting a heavy pass rush? Is Griffin not reading the safeties’ position or is he not allowed t0 change the play to something better? This is an ugly play that makes Griffin look like he’s a first-year player lacking the intellectual sophistication to handle a pro offense. Again, I don’t think this is true nor is it the intent of the coaching staff. However this isn’t the only max protect-simplistic route play in this game. It’s just a disturbing blow-back of creating a simple offense predicated more on elite athleticism and less on spreading the field to manipulate an offense.

It may appear degrading to a player like Robert Griffin, a prospect known for his intellect, but name a young, technically proficient, healthy receiver in Washington’s lineup and you’ll come up empty. Garcon is the closest thing to player to fit this description, but his wheels aren’t back, either. If anything, Griffin’s injury is revealing just how valuable one player’s game-changing ability can be.

Last year Griffin’s wheels were an element that forced defenses to overreact to even the simplest measures for fear of getting burned, which allowed a two-receiver passing game to work. This year, the wheels lack tread to corner to the open field that’s available above. The Broncos edge defenders and linebackers are confident that if it maintains its position, Griffin is no longer fast enough to win big as a ball carrier. Let him try to squeeze a deep ball into double coverage.

As you can see, both receivers have two defenders on them as Griffin targets the deepest zone.

At least Griffin errs long so there’s no danger of a turnover.

Another unintended consequence of Washington not changing its system and waiting for Griffin to recover his big-play ability is that the quarterback’s legs can’t hide as many of the offensive line’s weaknesses in pass protection.

This is another 30 personnel pistol set with two receivers split at slot width on either side of the formation. Denver has seen this look enough times in the game that by the fourth quarter, they’re using one deep safety and placing 10 defenders within the short and intermediate zones to handle it.

Griffin executes play action with the back as hit two receivers work down field against a secondary dropping into coverage. The linebackers stay in position to address any routes in shallow zone, but read to green dog if this once again is a max protect scheme. The only wrinkle to his play is Joshua Morgan, No.15, reversing field and working to the right flat as a dump-off. However, this is a slow-developing route and it requires the Washington offensive line to provide Griffin the time to check down.

Griffin finishes his drop, looking down field where the intermediate and deep zone contains two receivers matched against four defenders. Meanwhile, H-Back Logan Paulsen is assigned to an edge defender. With a healthy Griffin, it’s a risky but understandable to commit Paulsen to the edge with a running back to chip, but with this version of Griffin who cannot make the pass rush pay with his legs? Uh-uh.

Fortunately Griffin still has enough athleticism to avert disaster, using a straight-arm to slide past the edge rush. Even so, we know he’s not going to run. Denver knows this too. They have three defenders at the second level waiting for Griffin to break the pocket.

What else do they have to do? There are only two receivers on this play! If they green dog, there’s a chance they open a lane to allow Griffin behind them. It’s safer to stand there with their thumbs up their hind parts, keep the quarterback in front of them, and wait for him to indicate pass and send the closes linebacker towards the pocket after that.

Griffin resets his feet and this is the cue for one of the linebackers to green dog. Niles Paul is open in the right flat and he will have a one-on-one match up with a linebacker by the time he makes the catch. However, he needs Griffin to look Paul’s way to make the check-down. Instead, Griffin is pressing – bombs away.

In this case the receiver gets behind the secondary.

Griffin overshot the ball once again. Disrupt a quarterback from his spot in the pocket and he loses accuracy.

Make The Offense Squirm

Earlier in the game, Denver sent pressure at this max protect scheme – a double-corner blitz – and the Broncos linebackers were disciplined and waited for Griffin to attempt to break the pocket. I think teams see that containing Griffin in the pocket, eliminate easy runs for even a now-moderately athletic runner, and force him to pick a secondary apart with his arm and limited choices is the way to go.

This discipline is even more evident with blitz variation where both corners pressure the pocket, but the corner on the side where the quarterback keeper would go temporarily pauses his blitz until the quarterback finishes the read option phase of the exchange.

Once again, only two Washington receivers release on pass routes. Meanwhile, the defensive tackle also drops. However the depth of this drop indicates to me it’s intent is to keep the pocket intact and force Griffin to throw the ball than to cover a receiver.

The corner off the left side pauses his rush long enough to ensure that Griffin is dropping to pass and not opting to run. His teammates in the middle have nothing to do but play security guard patrol for a quarterback breaking the pocket as a runner.

Now that Griffin shows he’s truly dropping to pass, the cornerback resumes his blitz. Griffin is poised to do the right thing conceptually, which is to throw into the blitz and his receiver is open.

Griffin releases the ball with room to spare, but his pass is high.

The receiver – I believe it’s Garcon – attempts a one-handed grab . . .

And makes the play. After this completion, Denver opted not to blitz, force the receivers to face double coverage, watch Griffin and the offensive line squirm. Even when Washington sent more than two receivers down field, Denver decided they’d make Griffin and his receivers prove they could win by throwing the football on a set play.

No max-protection on this play, but it’s still a conservative passing attack with the field compressed more than what we often seen with NFL offenses.

As Griffin executes the read option fake, the Broncos linebackers remain patient, as does the defensive end on that read side. Also note the Broncos safety No.45. He’s spying Griffin the entire play.

As Griffin drops, the edge rusher works around the tight end, a mismatch for the defense that last year’s version of Griffin arguably uses his legs to make the Broncos pay. However, there’s still the safety spy – an added layer of protection for the defense that perhaps a healthy Griffin would not avoid.

Griffin climbs the pocket, doesn’t see an open receiver among the three running routes against six defenders in coverage – yep, still a 2-to-1 defensive advantage in DBs to WRs – and then is forced to slide to his left. Meanwhile, look No.99 near the left hash where Griffin is about to slide. Do you notice who is assigned to block this defensive linemen?

That’s Alfred Morris. A tight end on a player like Shaun Phillips or Von Miller? A running back on a defensive tackle? Two offensive linemen on the right side blocking air and grass? Not a good look on this play.

Griffin may not have the same explosiveness, but he’s still quick enough to slide from the edge rusher and then dip outside the defensive end. Not fast enough to slalom these big defenders without getting touched, but that’s part of the recovery process, if not the great athleticism of defensive linemen in today’s NFL.

Griffin just escapes a sack as he’s flushed to his left and this is where the spy comes into play.

This is where the play could still go alright if Griffin opts to run and make the most of this one-on-one match up with the safety. However, what he does next is a cardinal sin of quarterbacking and potentially an indication that his walk doesn’t match his talk about his confidence level in his knee.

Griffin pulls up and attempts a throw across the field with a defender bearing down. Yes, this sometimes works but when it does there’s a level of anticipation to place the ball at a spot where the receiver is the only one with a chance to work towards the ball. In this case, Griffin delivers the ball to the receiver in a static spot that forces that receiver to wait on the ball – a dangerous play because now the receiver must stand still and time a leap while the defender as the advantage of attacking the pass.

Also note the spin of the ball. There were a few throws where the ball came out funky because Griffin pressed too much to make a big play due to a scheme that emphasizes the speed that hasn’t returned to him yet and sends minimal receivers into maximum coverage.

The safety jumps the target, tips the ball, and ends the play. Washington is fortunate this play didn’t result in a turnover.

What’s happening with Washington’s offense is to be expected when its scheme’s lynchpin is a rare athlete and that athlete has lost that edge. Based on past history, it should return, but I’m not counting on it this year. This raises a broader set of questions: What will Washington do in the offseason?

Will they begin transitioning Griffin’s development to that of a pocket passer? Griffin was my No.2 quarterback in draft class that at the top was among the 3-4 best crops of rookie passers since 1983. Griffin’s intelligence, toughness, fundamental feel for the pocket, and deep accuracy (when not forced to throw into double coverage) are all reasons why I’ve always thought he could develop into a pocket passer with the mobility/accuracy that approached that of Steve Young and Aaron Rodgers. However, Washington has to upgrade its receiving corps and offensive line.

Will Washington keep its current system and wait for Griffin to regain his elite athleticism? If Washington remains patient and Griffin does return to form, they’ll have the luxury of adding talent but not forced to overhaul its offensive system and continue to rely on Griffin’s legs to put defenses on edge. But what if the Broncos’ method of defending Griffin works even when the quarterback’s explosiveness returns? Will Griffin and the coaching staff make the steps necessary to develop more advanced methods of execution for the passing game? They have the collective smarts and potential, but they need the talent.

I have a lot more to write about this game in Part II of this post, including the punishment Griffin is taking – something he’s always done as a player. But I’ll end this post with this final question: Knowing what we do about Griffin’s toughness and desire to play and the Washington organization making a questionable call about his leg in the playoffs last year, would it have been wiser to shut Griffin for the first 10-12 games of this season?

I don’t have an answer.

See Part II – Watching Grass Grow and Reasons For Hope

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