Category Running Back

Chicago Bears RB Ka’Deem Carey: Substance Over Flash

May 26, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back

Many draftniks are lukewarm about Ka’Deem Carey’s prospects, but it’s the little things he does that generate big plays that get me excited about his future.

A scout told me this spring that Ka’Deem Carey is the type of runner that scouts like and coaches love, but makes personnel executives squint their eyes. Carey’s off-field domestic violence charge early in his college career is a viable reason for scrutiny, but it’s not the reason the scout I spoke with says that some big wigs in NFL front offices weren’t jumping on board with their staffs.

Carey is a punishing runner for a back that weighed less than 210 pounds at the combine. He also ran a 4.7-40, which is by no means a death knell for a running back, but the front office sees the smaller stature, the average speed, and a career built on volume and the risk management hat comes on.

However, coaches love the intensity that a player like Carey brings to the game and the Bears have the kind of offense where I believe the rookie can develop into a feature back when Matt Forte’s contract expires. Carey’s 21-carry, 138-yard night against USC that included 10 first downs, 11 broken tackles, and 6 catches for 36 yards offers some quality moments that illustrate why I hold this view of the Bears’ fourth-round pick.

A quick suggestion: Set the speed to “0.5” on YouTube’s playback settings “the cog” icon on the bottom right of the video player before viewing each highlight.

Turning Losses Into Gains

Quickness and agility are more important than speed to a running back and vision to identify and avoid trouble trumps all three. This third-down run from a 2×2 receiver, 10 personnel shotgun set with 13:47 in the third quarter is a not against a packed box, but it’s still a good demonstration of what I’m talking about. Carey’s offensive line slants left and the runner intends to split the tackle and guard on that end to the flat.

However, USC ‘s tackle gets strong penetration up the middle to cut off this gap as Carey is taking the exchange with the quarterback. By the time Carey has the ball and a step past his quarterback, this tackle is two yards deep in the backfield and is blocking the widest gap at the line of scrimmage.

Carey has already identified the penetration and taking action. His first step is a hard plant and dip inside, but it’s not enough to avoid the tackle’s angle and he knows it. Some running backs will try to cut off the inside foot and lose balance.

Not Carey. He completes the second step with a turn, but it’s a quick step so he can plant harder with the outside leg to maintain balance and generate burst. It’s a minor adjustment that gets him inside the penetration and downhill with balanced pad level.

Now Carey can attack the defense in the middle of the field while avoiding the outside gap protection of the defensive back. He’s also in position to keep his knees high to run through the defensive back’s wrap.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/pLUfSGnNAI4&start=167]

He finishes the play backing his way to the Arizona 43 for a gain of eight on what could have been a loss of three. As I said, quickness and agility are more important than speed to a running back and vision to identify and avoid trouble trumps all three. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

High Knees

This 39-yard gain highlights Carey’s average speed, but what I like is the finish. Once again this is a run where USC is expecting pass, but I love how Cary pressed to the inside shoulder of the left tackle to force the defensive tackle inside and then cuts to his blocker’s outside shoulder to hit the smaller crease between the left tackle and H-Back.

This press and cut not only sets up the initial hole, but it baits the middle linebacker to slide outside and give the left guard the angle he needs to seal the edge at the second level. This is fine inside running by Carey, because if he tries to beat the defensive tackle inside, the linebacker is already in position to end this play early. Instead, Carey sets up the smaller crease and in turn sets up guard’s block.

The reward is a first down and another 29 yards. As Carey gets 20 yards into the run, note how high he lifts his knees as he anticipates and runs through contact.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/pLUfSGnNAI4&start=201]

Carey gains another 14 yards in part to running with his knees high. The Bears’ new runner may not break long touchdown runs, but he’ll have a lot of runs of 15-25 yards that matter.

Integrating Both Skills From Above

This is another third-down run early in the fourth quarter where Carey essentially faces a five-man front with six at the line of scrimmage. Again, these are favorable numbers for the ground game, but not when a defensive tackle swims past the center and beats the right guard assigned to him. The defensive tackle is a yard deep int the backfield with a good angle before Carey even takes the exchange.

Carey plants hard as he takes the exchange and turns his hips away from the reach of the defender who is almost four yards into the backfield.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/pLUfSGnNAI4&start=233]

He then bursts down hill with high knees through the crease, earning the first down and carrying a defender for a 12-yard gain on what could have been a three-yard loss.

Reading the Field A Level Ahead

Finding running backs with the capability to read and set up defenders a level ahead of the ball carrier’s current position is not as common as one might think. Most running backs–even in the NFL–read one level of defenders at a time. This 1st and 10 run with 10:11 in the game is a good example of Carey reading a level ahead. It’s a play that I think is easy for some analysts to get wrong and characterize it as Carey “wasting movement.”

Carey flanks the left side of the quarterback in this pistol set with 2×2 receivers. USC plays off coverage on the receivers and both safeties are deep enough that the defense is expect pass, but the linebackers are still in good position to defend the run. As Carey takes the exchange from the quarterback, note linebackers No.10 (middle of field) and No.56 (accountable for the left flat in the short zone).

No.10 maintains good position to defend the inside and prevent a cutback to the middle. No.56 does a strong job of reacting tot he hole between left guard and left tackle, flying towards the gap after accounting for the slot receiver and verifying the exchange between the quarterback and runner. However, watch Carey read No.56, bounce the play three steps to the outside, and force No.56 to account for the edge.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/pLUfSGnNAI4&start=252]

I believe Carey knew exactly what he was doing on this run: He saw the hole and the linebacker’s reaction, baited the defender outside, and all the while was prepared to spin his way inside and back his way through the small crease for positive yards. This is a lot like a two-way go, but Carey knows he’s operating in a tight space and has to factor the two first-tier defenders into his movement.

One of the reasons I believe Carey knew what he was doing is his spin move. He doesn’t try to do a complete 360-degree turn. If he does, the tackle plants him behind the line of scrimmage. Only a runner that does not see or feel the tackle working down the line tries a full spin. It’s the type of 360 move that at one time Darren McFadden might have tried on a zone play and failed. Carey spins so his back is to the defender and he has leverage to drive through the hit and earn yards.

A three-yard gain doesn’t seem impressive in the box score, but this is a good example of process trumping the product. Carey makes a good decision and is fast enough to set up the move while factoring four defenders into his choice, gaining three yards instead of potentially bouncing outside or cutting back for a loss or executing a full spin for no gain.

Some scouts would examine this run and label it a good example of “feel” or “intuition.”

Plays Big In Tight Quarters

The previous play was an example of how Carey leveraged his size for maximum power in a situation where he could have been planted into the ground by a much bigger man. This reception and run for a first down on 3rd and 7 with 9:40 in the game is technically a “space play” based on the location, but the room Carey has to operate in the flat as he makes the catch and run is anything but.

Once again this is a 2×2 receiver, 10 personnel shotgun set with Carey flanking the quarterback’s left side. USC has one safety deep middle and the rest of the coverage on the receivers is six yards off the line of scrimmage. Six USC defenders pack the box pre-snap. USC sends four–including two defenders towards the left edge, which leaves the flat open until the middle linebacker can sprint across to account for Carey swing from the backfield.

Arizona’s quarterback does a good job holding the defense in the middle of the field long enough for the linebacker to account for the crossing route moving under him left to right. This look-off paired with the shallow cross leaves Carey open in the flat and forces the defensive back to drive up field from the Arizona 45 towards Carey working towards the ball at the line of scrimmage at the 35.

Carey feels the presence of the defensive back over top and extends his arms to attack the ball at the 39. It’s a play that, if he misses, he might have been accused of alligator arms, but upon repeated viewings I think the ball was far enough and low enough that Carey had to extend the way he did to make the catch and the presence of the defensive back was a secondary factor, at best.

Once Carey makes the catch, he illustrates the awareness to spin, avoid the big hit, and force a wrap. Once achieved, Carey has pad level and leg drive to drag two players four yards. He crossed the first down marker and gains another three. Not a Lache Seastrunk display of disappearing in thin air and taking the ball another 40 yards, but also a play that Lache Seastrunk does not make 9 times out of 10 at his current level of skill.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/pLUfSGnNAI4&start=274]

Carey flashes the skill to concentrate on what he needs to do in the moment while anticipating what comes next. He’s also consistent and finishing strong. It’s easy to forget his weight is in the range of 207-210 pounds. I think he’ll add weight and explosion within the next year and it will only accentuate these positives of his game.

Tight quarters isn’t just winning against multiple defenders on top of you; navigating a sideline is another example. Here’s a catch as a check-down option after the play breaks down. Carey works across the formation towards the edge defender, but the quarterback is forced to scramble to Carey’s side due to interior pressure and Carey loses position on the defender because of the quarterback’s roll out.

The runner knows that it’s now time to work open as a receiver and he sprints to the right flat. The quarterback makes the throw and Carey makes the catch on the run five yards behind the line of scrimmage, but with the sideline open to him.

The pursing defensive linemen has an angle as Carey crosses the line of scrimmage to the sideline and there’s a defensive back over top and charging up the sideline. Carey stutters to freeze the two defenders, set up a block on the lineman, and plays give-a-leg-take-a-leg on the cornerback at the sideline. Even with the move to avoid much of the corner’s hit, Carey still gets hit hard on the leg, five yards past the line of scrimmage, maintains his balance while straddling the boundary and gains another five yards for the first down before the linebacker pushes the runner out.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/pLUfSGnNAI4&start=313]

It’s a tough play that appears easy when Carey executes it. It’s something I could say about all of these examples. It’s probably why football players and coaches are excited about him, but writers are lukewarm.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio and the RSP Post-Draft. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download now. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Gray Matter: RBs Andre Williams and Anthony Dixon

April 13, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back

Anthony Dixon isn't the athlete Andrew Williams is, but he has shown more as a football player. Photo by Jeffery Beall. — Anthony Dixon isn’t the athlete Andre Williams is, but he has shown more as a football player. Photo by Jeffery Beall.

I see the good from Andre Williams, but will he show it often enough on the field?

I’m often asked about my “misses.” Who were they? What did I learn?

The answers aren’t always as simple as the questions. Sometimes the outcome is wrong, but the process is right.

Cincinnati running back Cedric Peerman hasn’t shown me anything contrary to my take on the rare occasions he gets to carry the football. The fact that Jay Gruden admitted that they didn’t know what they had in Peerman adds to my take that Peerman could have developed into a starter if given a true shot.

Sometimes the arriving at a decisive take on a player isn’t incredibly difficult–even with a defined methodology. There are prospects whose tape is enough of a mixed bag when it comes to pivotal components of their games that determine which examples should carry more weight is a tough call.

While it’s natural to worry about being “right” or “wrong” with the call, what I learn from the players who fall into the grey areas of my process helps me tighten it over time. These adjustments are more gradual than immediate, but the potential lessons of these difficult evaluations hold great value.

This isn’t what some people want to hear. They want immediate answers and instant adjustments.

I’m not into the fly-by-night; I’m an aspiring craftsman. I’m hoping there will be many years ahead of valuable lessons based on mistakes.

One of my not-so-simple misses is Anthony Dixon, one of my favorite backs in the 2010 NFL Draft. The runner from Mississippi State is a bruiser with the footwork and agility of a runner 20 pounds lighter than his 6’0″, 233-lb. frame.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/RjPpHxlSThk]

A sixth-round pick of the 49ers, Dixon has hung onto a roster spot thanks to his special teams play. However, the 26-year-old Dixon is unlikely to earn significant time as an NFL starter after failing to push Frank Gore for time on the San Francisco depth chart early in his career. One of the reasons that Dixon didn’t earn more chances is that he did not display consistent maturity as a decision maker.

The coaching staff expected its young runner to lower the pads and work downhill, but Dixon either bounced too many runs outside or displayed too much hesitation on plays designed to go between the tackles. The early take on Dixon is that he lacked the balance of decision-making maturity and creativity to solidify a spot in the offensive rotation early in his career.

Dixon has been pegged as a special teams performer and fullback-running back `tweener. He was a solid fit for Jim Harbaugh’s gap-style ground game, which wasn’t the predominant system during the Mike Singletary era. On rare occasions, fans saw Dixon earning time in Harbaugh’s backfield as big-lead closer.

Because Joique Bell, Alfred Morris, Knowshon Moreno, and Pierre Thomas aren’t extraordinary physical talents and they’re still making an impact ahead of more touted prospects, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s more to come with Dixon’s story than what I mentioned above.

Even so, there is something I should have taken into account in hindsight: the Mississippi State ground game. The Bulldogs incorporated a lot misdirection with its run game in a gap-style offense: shotgun draws, counter plays, and traps.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/zvHPZi7_apk]

Although Dixon communicated a sound understanding of his keys at the line of scrimmage when I talked with him about his favorite plays at Mississippi State, the Bulldogs offense didn’t require sophisticated decisions from its backs. Dixon had to show just enough patience for one set of blocks to develop and make that destination of the run work. In most cases, Dixon’s physical skills were enough to earn yards after contact if Mississippi State failed to open wide lanes for its back.

Recently I went back to watch some of Dixon’s tape. I didn’t have the same impression of Dixon during my post-mortem analysis. The athleticism, power, and agility are all still there. However, I now see how the Mississippi State offense inflated my take of Dixon’s vision.

Where I missed on Dixon was his decision-making coming out school. Where I still may hit is his athleticism, burst, and balance if the decision-making has improved.

Funny enough, I wrote 90 percent of this piece and banked it in my archives well before Dixon earned a contract with the Bills and Mike Mayock announced his love for Boston College running back Andre Williams.

Williams is a big back like Dixon, but his evaluation has some difficult moments. The 6’0″, 227-pound Williams stars in a gap style ground game that loves to run traps, counters, and power. Both runners have enough quickness to move the chains, but neither shows the NFL speed to defeat a good angle from a defender in pursuit.

What adds complexity to this comparison contrast is that Dixon displays better athleticism on the field than Williams despite the fact that the Boston College back had an impressive combine. Williams’ physical skills don’t show up with the frequency that I expect from the top prospects at the position.

The professional market is too saturated with running backs who show more on a consistent basis for me to have as positive of a take on Williams as Mayock.

Even so, I like to explore the grey matter of my evaluations. Here are three plays that reveal glimpses of Williams’ best.

Power

Pair Williams in a power running game and the Boston College starter can get the job done. Here’s a 13-yard gain from a 23 personnel I-formation run against nine defenders in the box. The Eagles pulls its left guard to the right side and leads Williams to the hole behind his fullback.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/1lafGKn45VA?start=105]

Williams demonstrates some press-and-cut ability on this play. Ideally, I’d want to see Williams approach the hole outside the guard’s shoulder and then cut inside the guard at the line of scrimmage to exploit the hole opening to the inside.

Instead, Williams is positioned in the middle of the guard’s back. Yet it’s still a good enough spot for him to press the lane with a jab step to the outside shoulder and cut to the inside.

This move compels the defender on the pulling guard to peek outside and a beat late as Williams enters the hole inside the guard.

Williams gains three yards untouched through the hole and has some momentum to face the safety coming down hill and poised to deliver a shot to the runner’s legs. Williams’ knee level is high enough to repel the contact, maintain his balance, and earn another six yards before finishing the play coming over top of the defensive back making the tackle.

This is one of the better runs I’ve seen from Williams against contact where he doesn’t have a massive down-hill head start. Unfortunately, there aren’t many of them–even this one play doesn’t tip the scales for me over the wealth of plays where he’s unable to bully in tight spaces.

Here’s another nice press and cut from Williams from a heavy I-formation set.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/1lafGKn45VA?start=137]

Note the direction of the defense’s helmets after he executes the press and cutback. If Williams can make these cuts with this level of patience, agility, and burst more often in the NFL than he did at Boston College it will force me to re-examine how a small sample of plays can carry more weight despite being the exception to the rule in a player’s portfolio.

Speed

Williams’ difficulty opening his stride to reach that extra gear he showed at the combine limits his upside in the NFL. Here’s a play that would be a much bigger gain if Williams had elite speed for the NFL game. However, it’s a good example of enough speed to produce as a starter in the league.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/1lafGKn45VA?start=49]

As Williams reaches the flat, the safety has a bead on the running back. In this situation, Williams opens his stride enough that the safety cannot reach the runner at the eight-yard mark of the run.

Williams out runs this angle of the defender and earns another 16 yards beyond that safety’s original target trajectory. If not for the cornerback, Williams is off to the races.

But at this point, I have to stick with my take that Williams in pads doesn’t match his exploits in shorts. If not for Mike Mayock’s take likely reflecting the tenor of the NFL, I would have expected the Boston College starter to get a call in April as a late draft pick.

In the hyper-competitive world of professional sports and the perception-fueled environment of bloggers and fans, my assessment doesn’t sound complimentary. However, I remind you that for a player with an excellent mental-emotional approach to his career, the NFL Draft is only the beginning.

If the Boston College runner can demonstrate these skills with greater consistency, I’ll be eating my words. Of course, lessons like these offer plenty of nutritional value and build stronger bones for evaluation processes.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: RB Bishop Sankey

April 2, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back

Bishop Sankey is part of a class of mature runners who may not have flash, but run with substance. Photo by James Santelli. — My take why Bishop Sankey is an NFL-caliber runner, but not necessarily a feature back. Photo by James Santelli.

If blocking schemes were types of questions on a test, Matt Waldman explains why Bishop Sankey would be much better at true/false than multiple choice.

by Matt Waldman

This week’s Futures contains excerpts from the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio, my 1284-page scouting report on 164 prospects at the offensive skill positions, which is available for download now. The RSP donates 10 percent of each purchase to Darkness to Light, a non-profit organization devoted to preventing sexual abuse through the training of individuals, communities, and organizations on its dynamics.

The draft community is split on Washington running back Bishop Sankey. Some consider him a top-five back. Others see a committee guy, but never a featured starter. I side more with the latter viewpoint, but I do see how Sankey can develop into a full-time starter.

The reason for this split is scheme fit. When Sankey is reading the defenders directly in front of him he can be decisive, get downhill fast, and get his pads low enough to split the defense. When he focuses on his blocks, he can press and cut back to aid his lineman’s effort.

But ask Sankey to read linebackers, corners, or safeties a level behind the immediate blocks happening at the line of scrimmage and he struggles. He gets confused or hesitant and his reactions are tentative and slow. The speedy back with quick cuts and momentum to carry a defender for 2-3 yards is gone.

I think these lapses are often more conceptual than physical. Certain blocking schemes are easier for him to see the field than others. When Sankey gets confused, you can see it with his footwork. He’ll stutter rather than cut and he winds up exposed to the defense.

I believe Sankey’s best chance to develop into a starter depends on him going to a team that runs a lot of gap-style plays. This includes traps, power, counter plays, and sweeps — run designs where linemen pull and the runner has one option and doesn’t have to do much reading of the defense pre-snap. It’s the running back’s equivalent of an exam with true/false questions.

In contrast, zone blocking is like multiple choice: it requires a runner has the skill to anticipate what the defense will do on a play. Sankey has the athleticism to create, but when given two-to-three options he doesn’t read the line fast enough to succeed on a consistent basis.

He’ll often bounce runs in directions where there’s little chance to gain yards on a play where he had a clear opportunity to diagnose it differently. Sankey also misses some downhill opportunities that require a decisive, aggressive mindset.

Maybe this improves, but right now Sankey is better in a gap-style offense that places tigher boundaries on his creative options. When this happens, he displays greater shiftiness, layers of moves to make defenders miss, and burst from his cuts.

Still, today’s Futures is not a balanced illustration of Sankey’s good and bad plays. It’s focused solely on difficult plays that often mark the difference between a future NFL starter and a future backup. Read the rest at Football Outsiders

2013 RSP Flashback: RB Zac Stacy

March 26, 2014 0 Comments read 2013 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Publication, Running Back

[youtube=http://youtu.be/b9L8lAbcN4A]

The 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio is now available for pre-order for it’s April 1 release. Here’s a sample from 2013 of the underrated Zac Stacy.

There is not much flash in Stacy’s game, but there is plenty of substance. The Commodores runner has a low center of gravity and good power to keep his legs moving. He does not usually go down after the first hit or wrap.

He’s a decisive runner and will hit the hole on-time on gap plays (pulling guards) or show some patience and skill at pressing the hole on zone plays. Stacy optimizes the position of his blockers to access rushing lanes and this is probably his best skill. He rarely loses yards as a runner and he’ll keep the chains moving forward even if the runs aren’t for big plays.

His timed speed is a little more impressive than his on-field speed, but I have seen him show nice burst to the edge or through an open crease against fast defenses like Georgia. He lacks great agility to string together moves or make huge lateral cuts. Stacy can make a sharp cut if he has a step to gather his feet, but he’s not going to make big cuts at full speed and turn defenders around in the open field or with suddenness at the line of scrimmage.

He’s a one-cut down hill runner with enough speed to get into the third level, but not enough to create consistent breakaway runs. He has really good balance to carry defenders on his back
or stay upright after contact from a variety of angles. He has a shifty style where he can make defenders miss in the backfield or bounce to the outside and downhill. And Stacy protects the ball with either arm according to the location of the run and he keeps it cinched tight to his body.

His pass blocking is pretty good. He understands his protections, sets up angles to get square to his opponents, and will get good placement with his hands as a stand up blocker. He also delivers a good cut block on bigger defenders and hustles down field as a lead blocker in the run game.

It is possible that Stacy has an issue that his preventing him from punching opponents with good form as a pass or run blocker. However, what I saw is a player that tries to “load” up and deliver a shoulder or elbow/forearm. Although he sets a good angle to deliver a punch, the actual punch is out of control. There were plays where Stacy didn’t take a good angle to the
defender rushing the pocket and this forced pressure that he should have accounted for.

Stacy will be a fine backup in the NFL with enough skill to produce in a committee situation, perhaps even as a starter. However, he strikes me as a player that a team will say it’s happy with but continues to bring in other talented players to compete with Stacy while he has the starting job.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – available to pre-order now. The 2014 RSP will available for download April 1. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: 2014 Speed Score Leaders

February 27, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back

Where Bo Jackson 2.0 could be made . . . photo by Dancelilsister.

If I had a laboratory fitting of a mad scientist, Football Outsiders’ Speed Score would have its application. What about now?

Futures: The 2014 Speed Score Leaders

By Matt Waldman

Indulge me in a bit of fantasy. Imagine an old football field. It’s a practice field at the rear of an abandoned high school with woods surrounding it on three sides. Behind the north goal post is an equipment building no bigger than a backyard storage shed with a green tin roof, white cinderblock, and a steel blue door held three-quarters shut with a rusted chain and pad lock.

Squeeze inside this dark, dilapidated building and you’ll find Craig James’ concussed son -– wrong story. Let’s try again…

Squeeze inside this cobweb-filled space and you’ll find nothing but a bench press station with a torn vinyl cushion. Reach into the tear of the cushion and there’s a switch that opens a trap door in the floor near the entrance that reveals a long, torch-lit spiral staircase made of stone that leads to the secret laboratory of M. Waldman, mad scientist of offensive skill talent.

The demented (but good) doctor is pouring over plans to create Bo Jackson 2.0. He has set up shop in the southeastern United States because of regional and socio-economic factors that point to it as the best area to produce a rare athlete for the game. He’s hacked into the medical records of pediatrician offices and narrowed the field of candidates to boys who are projected to develop into young men between five-foot-nine and six-foot-one and have the skeletal-muscular potential to carry 210-to-225 lbs.

Like a formula to determine the tensile stress of a material for an engineering firm, Football Outsiders’ Speed Score would have an ideal application in M. Waldman’s secret lab. The problem wouldn’t be constructing the running backs, but preventing Nick Saban from breaking them before they reach the NFL.

In the reality of the NFL Draft, the Speed Score provides a layer of analysis that illuminates the players with desirable physical skills. The idea is a fine one: if they’re big and explosive, they’ll have the strength-speed-agility to measure on a spectrum that ends with terminates at Bo Jackson.

But we know that good running backs come in all shapes and sizes. Darren Sproles and Brandon Jacobs illustrate how the range of height, weight, speed, strength, and agility of successful players at the position is wider than any in the NFL.

The differences in size are also indicative of the specialization of the position that has evolved over the years. The New Orleans Saints three different types of runners on its depth chart:

Darren Sproles — A hybrid of a scat-back, slot receiver, and return specialist.
Pierre Thomas — A utility back that does his best work in pass protection, draws, and screens.
Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson — Traditional power backs who do best with a high volume of touches.

The Patriots, Cardinals, Bengals, Colts, Chargers, Panthers, Lions, and Falcons have at least two runners with roles that may blend in some places, but have distinct separation of labor in others. Based on recent drafts, one could argue that the Packers, 49ers, and Washington had similar aspirations.

Specialization offers more avenues for a variety of physical talents at the running back position to earn a roster spot. However, it doesn’t create more opportunities for running backs overall.

There’s a lot of talent on the street that can enter an NFL locker room, exit the tunnel to the field on Sunday afternoon, post 80-100 yards, and help a team win a game. The fact that Thomas and Robinson -– two UDFAs -– are viable options is a testament to this point.

Joique Bell, Alfred Morris and Arian Foster’s numbers all sound the refrain that a quality NFL running back often requires a lot less of what we emphasize as “good foot-speed.” There’s another type of speed that these three possess that is as important as foot-speed, agility, balance, and vision –- “processor speed.”

It’s an attribute often linked with vision –- a quality that is difficult to quantify unless one deconstructs “vision” into definable components. I still link processor speed with vision –- it’s the mental speed that a football player sees the position of the players on the field, links it to the game situation, and executes the appropriate physical reaction to the this environment-stimuli.

Processor speed enhances on-field speed. Watch a tentative or confused player and subtract tenths of a second of his execution time. While you’re at it, begin subtracting positive plays, playing time, and ultimately a contract with the team.

Clean, consistent technique is another factor that enhances on-field speed. There are receivers with 4.3-speed that cannot separate from cornerbacks because they cannot run clean routes. However, there are much slower pass catches whose routes are so good that they earn separation as if they had great foot-speed.

There’s no silver bullet or code to crack that will yield accurate projections of rookie prospects with quantifiable precision. Because the mad scientist’s football laboratory is only a pipe-dream, it’s important to view players that score high on Football Outsiders’ Speed Score within the context of the rest of their skills.

Nevertheless, the 2014 version of the Speed Score offers an intriguing quartet of players at its top: Oklahoma’s Damien Williams, Georgia Southern’s Jerick McKinnon, Stanford’s Tyler Gaffney, and Notre Dame’s George Atkinson. I’m not convinced all four have a place in the NFL, but even before Aaron Schatz asked me to write about them, I thought each offered an intriguing storyline.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Futures: A Trio of Sleepers

February 19, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback, Running Back, Wide Receiver

WR Paul Richardson, RB Tim Flanders, and QB Dustin Vaughan are intriguing players without the big-top pedigree.

Futures: A Trio of Sleepers

by Matt Waldman

According to most fantasy football writers, the term “Sleeper” is dead, buried, and the wake held in its honor featured a stuffed mushroom dish with creamed spinach and Italian breadcrumbs soaked in butter. Considering that many football writers at the wake sported IV drips topped with Crisco, finger food is always underrated.

Sleepers are still alive in the lexicon of “reality football.” Not that this term is somehow more legit than fantasy football.

Why would it be? Reality football has deteriorated into a wild and wooly sub-genre of Reality TV.

Pick a channel or website and there are weekly installments of the NFL’s Dr. Phil and Dr. Laura, only most of them hide in anonymity when dishing their gossip dressed as pop-psychology. Call me when these 20-something prospects finish adolescence.

On another, there’s the salacious he-said-he-said drama between two former Dolphins. Each episode is so popular that Jerry Springer is taking a pounding in the daytime ratings. Those rubber sheets from the investigative report to Commissioner Goodell might come in handy after all.

Reality Football is a five-ring circus of top prospects, current players, media, former players-turned-media, and Twitter all competing for attention. There’s no room for players under the big top who lack the Q Score of the headlining acts.

With the possible exception of Dallas, the actual game of football isn’t played under a circus tent. Once upon a time, even the Cowboys caught some teams sleeping on developmental players like Tony Romo and Miles Austin.

Joique Bell, Marlon Brown, Alfred Morris, Kenbrell Thompkins, and Brian Hoyer are also testaments to the fact that sleepers are alive and well in the NFL. Here are three of mine for the 2014 NFL Draft. Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

Talents on the Fringe: RB Shakir Bell

February 6, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back

Some talents on the fringe get their act together. Others, like Nate Davis, make bad on three golden opportunities. Photo my John Martinez Pavliga.

Every draft has a handful of players where the talent is there, but they don’t register on the draft media’s Richter Scale.

When it comes to the lens of the media, I’m drawn to players on the periphery. I enjoy uncovering the mystery behind players who perform well enough on the field to earn more attention, but haven’t done so.

Every year, I post about a few players who belong in this category of talented curiosities. Last year, there were three:

A high school hoodlum who saw his brother earn a football scholarship and decided to abandon his dead-end career to learn the craft of playing wide receiver at a community college on the opposite coast of his hometown. His dedication earned him a scholarship at an SEC school, but he opted to transfer before setting foot on campus because the head coach who recruited him bolted for another program. The school behaved like a spurned lover and delayed his request until he only had a limited amount of time to show scouts that he could play. Still, as a UDFA last summer his work was good enough that many experienced football writers and scouts said that Kenbrell Thompkins often looked like the best player on the field.
A four-star prospect from Memphis who this big-time, out-of-state SEC program pried away from the Tennessee region to pair with a future NFL star. This prospect never earned the production that the team expected from him, but his teammates and coaches still raved about him as a player, a teammate, and a worker. He began to do more than flash those skills on the field as a senior, but tore his ACL the November before the NFL Draft. The Texans gave this UDFA a try out, but cut the receiver in the spring. The Baltimore Ravens added him to its roster that summer and all Marlon Brown did as a rookie was catch 49 balls for 524 yards and score 7 touchdowns less than a year removed from an ACL tear.
A bowling ball of a college runner who tore through defenses with his power, balance, and vision at a program off the radar. His draft stock was gaining some traction before suffering a similar knee tendon injury as Ryan Williams and Cadillac Williams in the middle of his senior year. Yet, Benny Cunningham displaced two higher profile prospects for the backup role on the Rams depth chart and has a strong shot to maintain that job heading into the spring.

But for every Thompkins, Brown, Cunningham, Bobby Rainey, LaVon Brazill, or Alfred Morris, there are guys like Kenny Turner, Nate Davis, or Darren Evans, gifted players who disappear from the radar just as fast as they made the briefest of blips on the screen.

One of these players might be Indiana State running back Shakir Bell. The 5’8″, 185-pound runner would be my vote as one of the most talented pound-for-pound runners in this draft class. A third-team AP All-American in 2012, Bell is the type of runner that can make a one-year loss look like the best carry you’ve seen all week.

The reason you haven’t heard of him is that he played for the Indiana State and the reason he was a Sycamore is that, according to someone I know familiar with Bell, the runner has a reputation for flying against this classic line of advice:

Keep your head down, your ears open, and your mouth shut

According to this source, Darren Evans – a big back at Virginia Tech with NFL power – who also came from Bell’s high school program, had the same problem. Evans hung around the Colts practice squad that was in dire need of a running back to step up. Evans had the talent to do so, but didn’t make it happen.

In recent posts, I’ve been citing unnamed sources. I don’t do this lightly. At the same time, I acknowledge that despite the fact that I trust this man’s opinion, what he’s heard about Bell could be wrong. Hopefully teams will conduct interviews with due diligence.

Still this type of behavior assigned to Bell is not uncommon. I was also told that a learning disability is not the reason Nate Davis is bouncing around minor league football.

Davis had the belief that he didn’t have to apply himself at an intensity that matched the intensity of his talent. Davis was on the 49ers before the team drafted Colin Kaepernick; the Seahawks before the team picked Russell Wilson; and the Colts prior to the acquisition of Andrew Luck.

In my estimation, Davis is as physically talented and as naturally inclined to play the position as any of these three young stars. He had three golden opportunities that he botched because he didn’t want to embrace the mental and emotional discipline that the game demands from a player day in and day out. Todd Marinovich – for different reasons – had a similar issue. Success in pro football goes way beyond physical and conceptual talent for the position.

Still, I’m a lover of redemption stories and Bell is young enough to take the path of Dez Bryant, Josh Gordon, and several others have done. Here are two plays that give you an idea of Bell’s skill as a runner.

This is a nine-yard gain on 2nd and 4 from an I-formation set. The design of the play is to take the ball to left tackle behind the fullback, but the defensive tackle over the left guard gets penetration inside and is already two yards into the backfield as Bell takes the exchange.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UdLs9SMzjI4?rel=0&start=70&w=560&h=315]

Bell still presses to the outside, but then makes a hard cut across the face of the defender just inches away. Bell then gets down hill, runs behind the guard and bursts past the defensive tackle working from the backside.

Bell then runs through that wrap, gets up the left hash and runs through another attempt to wrap his leg for three yards. He finishes with a burst inside a small crease between his fullback and right guard for another four yards before he’s wrapped high-low by two defenders and dragged to the ground.

This is the type of run that encompasses a lot of skills that I value in runners: anticipation of his opponents; quick and smart reaction to penetration into the backfield; agility balanced with a down-hill mentality; and good, old-fashion, low pad level to finish with leverage and determination.

Here’s a one-yard loss from a shotgun set. The line slants left as Bell takes the ball towards the unbalanced strong side of the formation. The defensive tackle penetrates four yards into the backfield just after Bell completes the exchange.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UdLs9SMzjI4?rel=0&start=70&w=560&h=315]

Even so, the runner stops and cuts inside the tackle, making the defender miss. The defensive end working past the right tackle wraps Bell, but the little runner is quick and strong enough to run through the grasp of the lineman and then flash the balance and agility to spin through the outside linebackers hit to reach the right flat. He then dips through a third lineman’s attempt at the line of scrimmage Bell ran through that wrap but then was hit by the OLB. He spun outside that hit and worked to the right flat, dipping inside a third defensive lineman near the line of scrimmage to come impossibly close to earning yardage on a play doomed to fail.

There are several more plays I could share that highlight Bell’s skill and feel for the game. What only Bell knows is if he can develop the emotional maturity to match his talent. If he does, you may hear his name again. If not, you’ll another name that underscores the point that talent isn’t everything.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reese’s Senior Bowl Offensive Practices Day 3

January 22, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback, Running Back, Tight End, Wide Receiver

It may look like Dan McCullors in a Sr. Bowl uniform, but it is his twin brother Reese. Photo by Thomas Vanderwal. — It may look like Dan McCullers in a Sr. Bowl uniform, but it is his twin brother Reese. Photo by Thomas Vanderwal.

Players Who Grew On Me

Oregon’s Josh Huff leads this list of players who I like more as I leave Mobile than I did upon my arrival. The receiver demonstrated that he could catch the ball with his hands on a consistent basis. While he doesn’t make receptions at the level of difficulty we see from the top receivers in the NFL, he caught a few passes where he had to lay out for the ball and made a few tough plays down field against tight coverage in the end zone. I’ll be reviewing my game research and watching more of Huff in the coming weeks.

I am not among the draft analysts bullish on Antonio Andrews. However, the Western Kentucky running back demonstrated some sweet movement as a route runner and some maturity as an interior runner. I still don’t see Andrews as a future starter, but I’ll be taking another look because he’s a bigger, stronger back than I thought at a surprising 225 pounds and he did some things at practice a little better than I anticipated from him as a decision-maker.

Northwestern’s Kain Colter made an excellent catch up the flat on a go route that handily beat Pierre Desir in practice today. The throw led Colter a little far, requiring a diving extension with his back to the quarterback. This was one of the types of targets I wanted to see from the QB-WR conversion project and Colter came strong. His breaks still need a lot of work, but he’s held his own this week and I’m more optimistic about his potential than I was when I arrived.

Shaq Evans also had an excellent catch in the corner of the end zone in tight coverage on an under-thrown ball this morning. The acrobatic effort cost Evans some practice time because he landed funny on his leg and walked to the sideline with a slight limp and trying to jog off the injury before realizing it wasn’t going away.

Evans has dropped the ball multiple times this week, but they were often situations one could explain away with logic that could exonerate him, including poor communication from the quarterback with regards to the placement and timing of the throw and difficult adjustments required in tight coverage. I believe his hands are better than the final outcome of these targets revealed, but there will be analysts who think otherwise. The UCLA receiver will be a mid-to-late pick, but I think he has potential to grow into a starter one day.

Jerick McKinnon flashed some speed after a cutback that his tape hinted at, but did not truly fulfill. I’m still not sure this run during 11-on-11’s was a fair indication of his speed, but it was more than what I saw against Florida and Georgia. His performance was a positive step towards convincing a more cynical viewer like me that he could emerge as a more than a special teams player.

Players Who Lost a Little In My Eyes

Jordan Matthews’ skill at making the tough catch in the thick of the hit zone between the hashes is something that endears him to me. Truth be told, his difficulty separating from defenders in this practice on a daily basis is an issue. Matthews’ is big and strong enough to bait a corner into a poor angle and then use hands to knock the defender off-balance. He did this well for some big plays this week.

What Matthews couldn’t do was separate deep without initiating contact. There were multiple plays over the past few days where Matthews failed to earn separation within the first five yards and it prompted him to initiate contact a second time with the hope of knocking his opponent off-balance in the process. I didn’t see this as a good sign.

Moreover Matthews is not an efficient runner. I’m not talking about his ball-carrying skills. I’m reiterating something that my colleague Turron Davenport of Pro Football Central – a former college wide receiver – mentioned about Matthews working hard and less efficiently to get to his top speed.

I know that some of my data-head, analytic-thinking brethren have looked at Matthews’ height (and hopefully pay attention to the fact that he’s not as heavy as they assumed) and volume of production in the Vanderbilt offense and believe he’s a bargain compared to Sammy Watkins. I’m leaning harder to the point of view that in this year’s draft Watkins is the “you get what you pay for” option.

Matthews will cost less because he is a lesser physical talent with good, but not great skills. Fantasy owners might not notice the difference at the end of their rookie year, but when it comes to talent the numbers won’t make them right.

Arthur Lynch is a wily route runner. Watching the tight end set up linebackers and safeties in the short zone this week was a lot of fun. I only wish I had Adam Sandler’s remote from the movie “Click” to pause, rewind, and slow-mo the action. As an underneath option, I think Lynch can do good work, but his lack of explosion limits him more as a receiver than I believed when I arrived in Mobile.

Cody Hoffman’s difficulty winning against press coverage – especially today – was an eye-opener. The South team corners have grown more patient when facing Hoffman’s opening release moves and the receiver had difficulty moving them off their spots. The result was frequent collisions with defenders that disrupted Hoffman’s gate, balance, and timing.

There’s a good chance that Hoffman will trick a few defenders on the North squad during the game because they aren’t familiar with him. This is why the practices reveal more than the game. The sessions this week are indicative of how NFL teams will adjust over time and become familiar with a player’s style. The game is more like the first game or two where that familiarity isn’t game.

Unfortunately, you’ll see fans tout a player because of a good in-game performance when there’s often a lot more to it than the guy being a “gamer.” Hoffman might earn that “gamer” label, but the practices revealed a long-strider with a quick first step but not the guile or technical repertoire to win at a consistent rate. He’s capable of amazing catches, but the consistency is missing right now.

Inconclusive Evidence

Davenport told me that Wake Forest’s Michael Campanaro is coming off a collarbone injury. The receiver had good moments as an underneath option this week. However, I still don’t have a good feel for his skill to separate and make difficult plays against physical coverage.

Jimmy Garappolo is the hot item this week. I didn’t see enough to form an opinion. I wish I did, but what I witnessed was a quarterback with Derek Carr’s size, some true zip in the range of 10-20 yards, and a consistent predilection for placing the ball to the back shoulder or hip of receivers when the more optimal choice was leading them down field.

At first glance, there’s a lot of open space that Eastern Illinois’ offense generated for Garappolo. I’m looking forward to examining this quarterback’s game in greater detail.

Wyoming wide receiver Robert Herron’s practice performances were predictable in the sense that he experienced a slew of 2-3 dropped passes during a period of practice and then caught everything else, including some difficult targets. I didn’t see this type of behavior on tape, but I want to re-examine him nonetheless.

They Are Who I Thought They Were

Versatile, agile, and mature between the tackles, Charles Sims is a Senior Bowl darling. You’ve read enough about him on my blog, go here.

Jared Abbrederis may not be the size I thought he was, but he’s the same fine all-around receiver I saw at Wisconsin. He’s a player I’d love to have on an NFL team who can play a variety of roles as a returner and receiver.

Quarterbacks Stephen Morris and Logan Thomas offer eye-popping physical characteristics and flashes of promise, but lack the conceptual feel or the game and consistency to generate interest beyond a late-round pick (save a rogue team that falls in love with looks over the substance of their performances).

C.J. Fiedorowicz is a blocking tight end in training. Gator Hoskins is an H-back in training. And arguably the best potential all-around tight end was Crockett Gillmore from Colorado State – a late edition who, along with the likes of Alex Bayer, were more intriguing options than the original picks for this game. Bayer was not in attendance, but Gillmore made a beautiful over the head catch about 25 yards down field on a corner route and his blocking was physical and on-point today.

Jeff Janis continues to intrigue folks who see the big body with a reasonably quick gait, but ignore that he caught over 75 percent of his targets against his body and didn’t have more than a handful of receptions on targets of moderate difficulty.

I almost gave Ryan Grant consideration in my tier of players who raised their standing in my eyes. He had some slick releases and did a fine job of getting on top of defenders early on vertical routes. There were still several routes where he lost control of his footing trying to break harder than his balance would allow. I liked the effort, but as I mentioned during the preview, Grant has to demonstrate consistency. This was a step in the right direction.

For more Senior Bowl Info also check out:

Boiler Room: Arizona State RB Marion Grice

January 20, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Running Back

One of my favorite players in this draft thus far is this 6-0, 204-lb. Sun Devils running back with the vision, balance, and grit to get the most from every play.

A series I started last spring at the RSP blog is The Boiler Room. One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

One of these players is a running back I look forward to watching this week at the Senior Bowl, Arizona State’s Marion Grice. Not the most physically talented player in this class of backs, this 6’0″, 207-lb. runner is savvy, tough, and versatile. I enjoy his game enough that I’m already going to violate my one-highlight rule (shocking I know . . .) and show you two.

The first is a demonstration of Grice’s skills as a receiver on a fade route against a linebacker in tight coverage for a touchdown to tie USC in the second quarter. The Sun Devils’ runner flanks the quarterback on the right side of the shotgun at the 11 with 7:59 in the half. The two tight end alignment forces the outside linebackers to account for these receivers, matching Grice with the middle linebacker – a tough draw for the defense.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Pn5vRoTqIk&start=182&w=560&h=315]

The fact the quarterback even targets Grice on this play is a display of trust in the runner’s skills in the passing game. This is a timing route where Grice must execute his break with one fluid motion. Watch the replay and the timing of this break is late enough in the route so the linebacker has to react first.

This first reaction gives Grice the advantage of “having the last say” with the target – turning his back to the linebacker, extending his arms to the ball, and completing his turn through the linebacker’s coverage to win the pass in bounds. Grice makes it look easy. It’s this prowess versus man coverage in the red zone and intermediate routes that makes Shane Vereen a promising weapon in New England.

At the very least, I expect Grice to earn a roster spot because he’s also a capable return specialist. However, I’m more optimistic that Grice has potential as a long-term contributor as a third-down back based on the strength of his receiving skills and promise as a pass protector.

This week in Mobile and additional tape study should give me enough information to make a judgment on his overall NFL upside. Is Grice’s potential that of a role player or a more frequent contributor in a starting lineup?

Running backs are a dime a dozen and when a player like Grice lacks special athleticism, odds aren’t in his favor of developing into a long-term starter. However, I see flashes of strong balance, second effort running, and smart decision-making that give me some optimism.

This failure of an offensive play on 3rd and 14 with 2:14 in the first quarter is the type of moment few would consider for a highlight reel, but I believe it underscores the skills I mentioned above in addition to a heightened level of vision/awareness of his surroundings as a receiver/runner.

Grice flanks the quarterback’s right side in this 3×1 receiver, 10-personnel shotgun set at the 50 versus a USC defenese with six defenders in the box. This is a swing route to the right flat.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Pn5vRoTqIk&start=99&w=560&h=315]

The difficulty of this target is understated. Although the physical adjustment to make the catch isn’t a difficult one, the placement of the ball forces Grice to catch the ball over his shoulder and maintain his momentum towards a safety screaming into the flat. This is the type of attempt many receivers drop due to a lapse of concentration.

Not Grice, who is fully aware of the safety but makes the catch with good form and still has the agility and timing to make the defender miss and then layer a spin to the inside of the second defender coming from the inside. After layering two moves after the catch, he fights his way though three defenders before tackled at the line of scrimmage.

In the box score or the context of the game, this is not a meaningful play. However, when I’m evaluating talent it’s a great example – one of many I’ve seen – of a player who integrates his physical skills, on-field awareness, and effort.

As I mentioned in my Senior Bowl Preview, I want a better feel for Grice’s speed and acceleration. If he demonstrates enough athleticism – and maybe at 210-215 pounds – he could be an underrated prospect with starter upside.

Below the Radar: Alabama Utility Back Jalston Fowler

January 16, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Running Back

Alabama FB/HB Jalston Folwer reminds me of Atlanta Falcons’ underrated ‘tweener Jason Snelling, only Fowler is a better ball carrier.

The eye in the sky doesn’t lie. It’s a pithy football cliché. But the eyes in our heads can fool us.

It happens to everyone while watching a football game and play-by-play commentary can reinforce inaccurate depictions of what’s happening on the field. If you’re a casual viewer this is nitpicking criticism. If you’re focusing on a player it’s important to forget what you saw on the couch with your buds and ignore what you heard during the game.

A good example is what I heard from announcer Brent Musberger’s during Alabama’s 2012 opener against Michigan when he described Crimson Tide fullback/halfback (and H-back) ‘tweener Jalston Fowler “hammering away” at the Wolverine front. I thought I saw the same thing from the 250-lb. Fowler. However, when I studied his performance last month, what I saw on repeat views was a big man making defenders miss.

If what you see below didn’t fool you upon first viewing, good for you. You have truthful eyes today. Congratulations, you’re a football analysis god. Now go away.

Whether Fowler returns to Alabama this year or leaves for the NFL (and I believe he’s staying), he is the type of prospect who heightens my interest as a talent evaluator because he has been a supporting actor on a stage that has included leading men Trent Richardson, Eddie Lacy, and T.J. Yeldon. If Folwer makes an NFL roster and develops into a contributor along the lines of Snelling, Mike Tolbert, or ascends to a lead role, it wouldn’t be the first time a runner in a collegiate supporting role earns a greater opportunity as a ball carrier as a pro.

William Andrews was a fullback for Joe Cribbs. Terrell Davis was backing up Garrison Hearst. Priest Holmes took a backseat to Ricky Williams. And Willie Parker knew every grain and knot of the pine where he sat at UNC.

These examples and others are often personnel decisions that factor scheme fit in addition to talent. In the case of Fowler, a four-star prospect as a running back at the prep level, it was an embarrassment of riches in Tuscaloosa.

Here’s an introduction to those unfamiliar with Fowler as a ball carrier.

Footwork in the Hole

Fowler is the single back on 2nd and 10 with 5:37 in the first quarter from a 21 personnel weak side twin, strong side I-formation set at the 33 of Alabama. Michigan is in a 4-3 with the free safety in the box at linebacker depth over right defensive end. This is a zone run with the right guard collapsing the defensive tackle inside and the center working to the middle linebacker.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zStxtcjBRmU&start=44&w=560&h=315]

Fowler works behind the right guard to reach the line of scrimmage, entering the hole with low pad level as the outside linebacker from the left side pursues inside. At 6’1″, Fowler is a tall runner but his pad level is excellent and I’m impressed with his ability to change direction running from this crouched position. He dips outside that linebacker’s reach two yards down field and turns up the left hash for another eight.

Then Fowler bends inside the cornerback coming from the left hash at the first down marker maintaining that strong pad level with the ball high and tight under his right arm. The Alabama runner finishes the play dropping his pads into the safety 13 yards down field gains another four yards for a total of 17.

This finish warrants Musberger’s characterization, but it’s Fowler’s maneuvering around these blocks untouched for three-quarters of this carry that is most noteworthy.

Feature Back Agility

This 2nd-and-10 gain of four with 2:11 in the first quarter isn’t a display of Lesean McCoy’s skill at cutting against the grain, but it reveals that Fowler has the agility to execute NFL-caliber, press-and-cuts down hill at the line of scrimmage. This is a 12 personnel weak side twin set versus a 4-3 with the Michigan strong safety outside the wing back on the unbalanced strong side. Alabama runs a zone blocking play to the strong side.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zStxtcjBRmU&start=75&w=560&h=315]

Fowler presses the run towards the end and then cuts the play downhill. He cuts inside his left tackle and then bends the run under his left guard. I have the 49ers-Panthers Divisional Playoff game on as I’m writing this and I just watched Frank Gore execute the same press and cut – Fowler’s was no different.

Alabama’s big back bursts through the line of scrimmage for a gain of four before the defensive back hits Fowler in the legs. This is when 250 lbs. of north-south burst and pad level does it’s job: Fowler keeps his legs moving and earns another four on the play, carrying two more defenders on his back.

This 1st-and-10 wind back play from a 12-personnel weak side twin set at the 43 of Alabama is good display of quick, economical feet that transitions well to the NFL.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zStxtcjBRmU&start=159&w=560&h=315]

The left guard and center do a good job with their double team to the middle linebacker. Combined with the tight end’s effort on the edge, there’s a huge lane to the left side of the line of scrimmage. However the outside linebacker manages to shoot this gap unblocked straight for Fowler.

The runner executes a nifty cut inside the attempt, reaches the line of scrimmage, and runs through the arms of the next defender. Fowler maintains his balance for another five yards down field and then out runs a wrap attempt eight yards past the line of scrimmage, splits the safety and cornerback with strong pad level and falls forward for a gain of 12. The replay does an even better job of showing the footwork.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zStxtcjBRmU&start=167&w=560&h=315]

Mature Decision Maker

Fowler may have good feet, but he’s not a big back with a little back’s mindset like Lendale White or Marc Tyler. If a large crease doesn’t open, Fowler makes the most of what’s ahead. This 12 wind back play from a 12 personnel weak side twin set with 9:58 in the game isn’t a big gain, but it’s a mature decision.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zStxtcjBRmU&start=153&w=560&h=315]

At the snap, the wing back works across the formation to the weak side end as Fowler takes the exchange. Fowler spots the right defensive end working across the face of the runner’s edge block to penetrate the middle of the line. Fowler dips to the left for three yards, gaining all three after contact at the line of scrimmage when there was no crease.

With Richardson and Lacy the marquee backs while Fowler was an underclassman and Yeldon and Derrick Henry as the present and future of the Alabama backfield, Fowler isn’t a name the public will know. But whether it’s this year or next, Fowler is a player I expect to make an NFL roster as a special teams contributor who will develop into a factor in a pro offense.

You can begin placing orders for the 2015 RSP in January.