Category Running Back

Boiler Room: Ole Miss RB/PR Jeff Scott

Photo by Lukeamotion.
Photo by Lukeamotion.

Curling into the fetal position was a highlight I considered, but it wouldn’t be fair to a dynamic player.

The Boiler Room Series is my attempt to capture the state of an NFL prospect’s development into a single play. This is an impossible task, but what if you have a limited number of plays to state your case about a prospect to the leadership team within your organization? If you’ve researched enough about this player, a cut-up of choice plays with a short presentation can provide a decent assessment of strengths, weaknesses, and potential fit for the team. You can read the rest of my Boiler Room Series here.

If I were to present one play to an NFL team on Jeff Scott, the Rebels’ fine running back and return specialist, it would be of him turning the corner on a sweep only to drop to his knees and curl into the fetal position at the feet of a defensive back and linebacker. This does not sound like a complimentary depiction of Scott, but it’s more of a reality check to a potential investor.

Truth be told, this is not disparaging commentary on the 5-7, 168-pound running back’s game. If Scott wasn’t tough enough, he wouldn’t be the team’s starting running back in the Southeastern Conference.

One upon a time, friends of mine had an impromptu backyard game in Athens. Most of these guys playing were in the range of 6-1 to 6-4 and 200-240 pounds. They were decent shape for former high school football players. They were the type of 20-something dudes who would think, “I could tackle Jeff Scott.”

One of those guys playing that day was Mark Maxwell, a local guitarist and recording studio owner (scroll down to bottom of link) who is known in town for producing an album of lullabies that have sold 100,000 copies. The local hospital even gave them to newborn parents (buy them here). Mark was a skinny, long-haired musician with glasses.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/edTBdfd1ABI]

He also played college football at Georgia Tech for Bill Curry.

Maxwell was a running back and returned kicks for the Yellow Jackets. According to my friends, when Maxwell fielded the kickoff he left everyone on the ground holding a body part in well under seven seconds.

That skinny, long-haired musician ran through everyone like a hot knife through butter and he did it wearing a pair of sandals. I don’t know if this is accurate, but legend has it this was the day they nicknamed Maxwell “Sandals.”

Like Maxwell – and even more so, considering that Maxwell quit football and transferred to Georgia to study music – Scott’s game is built on speed and agility. He’s a space player on the lightest end of the spectrum of running backs.

Scott knows his limits and testing his mettle on plays that aren’t vital to the outcome of the game isn’t smart of him if he wants to help his team with more touches.   Showing a play of Scott curling into the fetal position at the end of a run would be my reminder that he’s a space player and not a traditional running back.

Like Scott, Dexter McCluster is plenty tough, but well under 200 lbs., he's not a 200-lb. guy you run between the tackles. Photo by Tennessee Journalist Wade Rackley.
Like Scott, Dexter McCluster is plenty tough, but well under 200 lbs., he’s not a guy you run between the tackles. Photo by Tennessee Journalist Wade Rackley.

Develop him as a hybrid or a slot receiver if you see something about his skills that fit into the current offensive scheme.  Just remember that you’re seeking chunk plays from Scott.

How he’ll do that first – and best – is on special teams. Therefore, the Boiler Room play for Scott is a punt return with 32 second in the third quarter versus Texas.

It’s a high, booming punt that Scott tracks to the right hash at the Ole Miss 27. He bounces it a few yards to his right and then uses his terrific agility to reverse field and make three defenders miss good angles to him. Not only does he reverse field, but he layers a second move into that series of steps to beat that third defender and access a lane under a block.

Is this all planned? Of course not, but it’s a demonstration that his open field game unfolds with greater control than his peers.

Scott isn’t big, but give him space and momentum and he’s a tough player to take down. Not long after beating these first three defenders on the return, Scott reaches the 40 and runs through a wrap to his outside leg.

Scott regains his balance and turns down hill bending the run behind a blocker at the 45, avoiding a defender just inside the left hash. At this point, Scott has the advantage with a blocker in the left flat and a swath of open turf ahead at the 45.

He gains another 20 yards up the left flat, picks up a block, and has a convoy of five teammate for the final procession to the end zone – a 73-yard touchdown. Here’s the return.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGtAkNYUqOc&start=230&w=420&h=315]

That’s a play that can make the collective psyche of the opposition curl into the fetal position.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Isaiah Crowell

Isaiah Crowell

Based on talent only, Alabama State’s Isaiah Crowell is the best RB in this 2014 draft class. Talent isn’t everything.  

Watch an Alabama State football game and you’ll see a talented young man in a hurry. Isaiah Crowell has a sense of urgency that transcends the field of play.  Every time  the Hornets’ 5’11”, 215-lb. starting running back hits a crease or turns a corner with the ball in his hands, it feels like there’s more power in his legs than the hunger for another yard, another first down, or another touchdown.

It feels as if Crowell had his way, he’d burst through the line of scrimmage, hit the sideline, disappear through the tunnel of the stadium on a Saturday, and with the assistance of a football time-portal (operating courtesy of high-end quantum physics/magic), emerge 24 hours later onto the grass of an NFL field.

Hell, if a human being could run fast enough and reverse the orbit of the earth to disrupt the space-time continuum and erase a few years of events while retaining the wisdom gained (think Superman saving Lois Lane in the 1978 film), Crowell would lace up those cleats and get to sprinting.

It’s what I see as I watch the latest chapter of Crowell’s college career. If I based my evaluation of Crowell’s NFL potential solely on football skill, he is easily the best running back in this 2014 NFL Draft class. But talent isn’t everything.

When Isaiah Crowell arrived a Georgia as a freshman, there was talk that the Columbus Georgia native had the kind of talent that folks in Athens Georgia hadn’t seen since Herschel Walker. Much of this hype was on the national level among the more photo-friendly, word-conservative publications covering college football. Walker is the standard-bearer for Georgia running backs and Crowell was a worthy challenger to the crown. A 5-star recruit, Crowell’s 850 yards, and 15 touchdowns as a freshman set the stage for at least two more seasons of big-time college football excellence.

In less than a year on campus, he failed a drug test and was charged with two felony counts of illegal possession of a firearm. The charges were later dismissed because there wasn’t sufficient proof that the guns were Crowell’s, but Georgia had seen enough. By spring, Crowell’s career as a Bulldog was over.

Two years into his enrollment at Alabama State, Crowell has no off-field issues, attends class, and has often dazzled on the field. A five-star recruit at the running back position should be good enough to transcend the caliber of football around him.

But questions about Crowell’s commitment to a team environment linger. Unlike Jadeveon Clowney, Crowell is no longer an SEC star and while it means that the spotlight is far dimmer in the SWAC, the microscope is still just as powerful.

Tim Gayle of the Montgomery Advertiser had a revealing interview with Hornets’ head coach Reggie Barlow about Crowell’s tenure with the Alabama State football team. It includes discussion about Crowell removing himself from games after suffering injuries some consider minor and not returning to the field for the rest of those games.

“Just talking to the scouts, they’re thinking that what you’ve done over these four years, that’s what you are,” said Barlow, who played in the National Football League for eight seasons. “The money won’t make you do it. The money will make you lazier and make you miss more because you’ve got guaranteed money. If the guy hasn’t done it over the last four years . . . it’s hard to over come it . . .

When you’re NFL personnel and you’re investing big money in these young adults, you want to know that, one, he’s going to play to the best of his ability to for as long as he can play and you want to know he’s going to practice to the best of his ability and you want to know that he’s going to be a good teammate and not cause strife . . .

Isaiah has grown up and matured a little bit but he stil as to understand that, on that level, there are only three running backs on a roster. There’s a starter, your change-of-pace back that is typically your punt returner and kickoff return. And your third back plays on all special teams.

I’ve had those conversations with him. What if  he goes to the Houston Texans and they have Arian Foster and he’s the starter? You’re the guy that comes in sparingly. Are you willing to be the personal protector on the punt team? Are you willing to run down on the kickoff team? Those are the things he has to answer and be true to because it’ll show. You can’t hide up there.”

As someone who has questioned the party line that many draft analysts have taken with Clowney, an underpaid, minimally protected, front-line employee in the big business of college football, one might expect I’d have the same sentiments about Crowell protecting his long-term interests.  However, I’m more ambivalent about the Hornets’ star running back.

Although he has played through a knee bruise, a sprained left ankle and a swollen foot this season, Crowell’s past transgressions are a huge red flag about the running back’s willingness to be a teammate and not just a star. In this sense, Crowell has generated a potential lose-lose situation when it comes to the draft.

He has to be in peak physical condition to perform like a star if he wants to even earn a shot with an NFL team beyond a spring tryout. Yet if he protects himself at the cost of helping his team, then he plays into the selfish, entitled, and immature label that got Crowell into this predicament in the first place.

The truth is that I haven’t decided where I stand with Crowell. I believe a young man who was on the cusp of earning everything and lost it all must spend a lot of time thinking about ways to best protect his professional future while at the same time showing his potential employers that he’s worth their consideration. I believe a young man might make the mistake of viewing Alabama State as a weigh station or pit stop along his journey to the NFL when he could have become a major leader on this team and had his team raving about him instead of mixed reviews from his head coach.

But I also believe that a young man still has a lot of room for growth and even with the mixed reviews, he’s heading in the right direction. Dez Bryant, Ryan Mathews, and Josh Gordon are three examples front and center into today’s NFL that maturation is a process. As long as the overall trend continues pointing upward, the NFL will invest in talent in need of maturation.

I’m the first to tell you that NFL-caliber talents at running back are a dime a dozen, but there’s a difference between an NFL talent and an NFL feature back. Crowell has feature back talent that has been evident since he set foot on Georgia’s campus.

His 19-touch, 158-yard, 2-touchdown performance as a freshman against a loaded South Carolina defense that included the likes of Clowney, Melvin Ingram (Chargers), Devin Taylor (Lions), DeVonte Holloman (Cowboys), Stephon Gillmore (Bills), and D.J. Swearinger (Texans), is an impressive testament.

Eyes-Feet-Pad Level

Crowell’s first touch in this game is a display of everything that makes him special as a runner. It’s a 15-yard gain on 1st and 10 at the UGA 31 from a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel set. South Carolina plays a 34 look against Georgia’s zone play to the right. The guards on this play work upfield to the inside linebackers while the rest of the line slants to the right to block the defensive front.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/vTzsE3H8rB0]

The first thing Crowell displays is a terrific link between his eyes and his feet. If you’ve ever wondered what “runs with his eyes,” means, this is a good example. The Georgia running back approaches the line of scrimmage towards the right guard and he sees the nose tackle getting penetration into the backfield.

Crowell cuts behind his center and through the gap off the left guard to cross the line of scrimmage and then dips back to the inside towards the right flat so he can work past his tight end’s block on the outside linebacker. There is some excellent change of direction happening on this play and not all of these moves are from dramatic cuts.

Much of the best footwork is how well Crowell varies his stride length to maintain good balance through traffic, stay downhill, and set up additional blocks. Crowell takes what could have easily been a gain of 2-3 yards in the direction the blocking intended and makes one early detour that still leads back to the intended path and results in a 15-yard gain.

Crowell finishes this run by bouncing outside his tight end’s block and then cuts downhill to work inside his receiver’s block at the 40. He lowers his pads into the safety at the 43, slides under the contact and crosses the 46. Continuous low pad level is one of the things I love about Crowell’s running style, but look how low the safety is on this play. Crowell still manages to get under his opponent’s pads. This is Edgerrin James-like pad level.

Balance

This 28-yard run from a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel set is the type of play that will get all but the most jaded football fan to think “that’s a man right there.” The Georgia line slants right as its guards work to the second level to attack the linebackers and one again Crowell has to address penetration into the backfield.

The running back takes a step towards the right side of the line at the snap towards the right guard. As he approaches the exchange point with the quarterback, Crowell spots the penetration through right guard working its way to yards into the backfield. Crowell takes the exchange, hops inside the penetration, and cuts downhill at the right hash under the block of his tight end.

Then my favorite part. The linebacker screams into the picture and slams into Crowell’s right shoulder at the same time a second defender shoots low from the opposite side. Crowell’s aforementioned stride as a runner gives him the flexibility to duck his shoulder away from the full impact of the hit and at the same time pull his left leg away from the defensive back’s wrap.

Crowell emerges from the high-low hit that would end play for most college running backs and gains another six yards for the first down as he crosses the middle of he field to the left hash at the 40. He gains another seven before he encounters the cornerback crossing over top at the 30 in an attempt to cut off the runner’s angle. While navigating this defender, Crowell gets wrapped from behind by the linebacker giving chase and finishes the run diving forward to the South Carolina 31.

Watch the rest of this cut-up package of Crowell against South Carolina and you’ll see a runner with a good stiff arm, soft hands as a receiver, and the maturity to grind out the tough yards against a top-notch defense. It’s a performance from a freshman that most seniors with NFL aspirations would envy. It’s tape that also provides credence that what you’re about to see from his Alabama State tape isn’t an illusion.

Burst

This is a 1st and 10 run early in the first quarter from a 2×2 receiver 10 personnel pistol against a 3-4 look from Jackson State. The line slants right and Crowell takes the exchange towards the center before dipping outside towards the left tackle. Waiting in the hole is an unblocked linebacker.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSjr0Ldo5XU&start=12&w=420&h=315]

Watch the replay from the end zone angle and note the quickness of the outside-in move paired with a straight-arm to get past the defender in the hole. The best prospects integrate their physical and conceptual skills in a variety of ways and this 14-yard gain is just one example.

Decision Making

A vital part of great vision is balancing the qualities of patience and decisiveness. Every back errs on one end of this spectrum, but the best runners have a knack for striking the right balance more times than their peers. This 84-yard touchdown run has other components worth mentioning such as speed, balance, pad level, and second effort, but it’s the decisiveness and commitment to the crease that I value in light of the runs I showed of Crowell where he has to demonstrate more creativity and patience.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSjr0Ldo5XU&start=35&w=420&h=315]

The Hornets’ runner takes the ball from this 1×3 receiver, 10-personnel shotgun set at the 16 and veers toward the left end. If you freeze the tape at the 54-second mark where Crowell is still a step inside the left hash, there’s a good view of the unblocked linebacker working through the gap. I’ve seen my share of backs who rely too much on their athleticism and try to avoid this defender rather than commit to the intended path. Clinton Portis is a great example of a runner with excellent feet and agility who could commit to a crease even if it appears small and the pursuit is looming. Laurence Maroney could not.

Crowell doesn’t hesitate. He beats the linebacker to the crease and hits it hard enough with good pad level to bounce off a hit as he turns down hill and then run through the defensive linebacker four yards down field. Driving through the wrap, Crowell emerges in the open field at the 25, accelerates to top speed at the 35, and maintains his pace the final 65 yards.

More Skills Integration: Stiff Arm and Second-Level Cuts

This play features a second-level cut back that I’ve seen Ryan Mathews, Matt Forte, and Adrian Peterson make in college and the NFL. It’s an 11-personnel pistol set at the Alabama State 34. Not only does Crowell hit this hole with authority, he obliterates the angle of an unblocked safety as he emerges from contact with a defensive lineman.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSjr0Ldo5XU&start=162&w=420&h=315]

Crowell has to stiff arm the defensive tackle as he hits his crease and still manages to make a hard cut under the safety without losing stride. The footwork, burst, and balance to make this happen is feature back material. It’s the type of 21-yard run one would also witness in a Seahawks contest featuring Marshawn Lynch.

I asked football writer and former NFL player Ryan Riddle what it was like trying to tackle Marshawn Lynch, Riddle’s teammate at Cal. Riddle said, “It was like trying to tackle the ocean.” Crowell has a similar quality of energy to his running style – even if those possessing little appreciation for the nuance of analysis will blurt out “but Lynch doesn’t run out of bounds.” Of course, those are the same people who just read this passage and thought I said Ryan Mathews is as good as Adrian Peterson.

Crowell has the physical skill and conceptual know-how to develop into a productive feature back in the NFL. He’s the best pure runner in this class. In fact, I think his combination of vision, balance, and burst would have made him a better prospect than any back in the 2013 class. But Crowell isn’t wrapping up his junior year at Georgia with a spotless off-field record. He’s about to learn one way or the other that talent only gets you so far in this world.

I hope this time he’s had enough hard lessons to choose the easier ones.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures – Intuition and Process: FSU RB Karlos Williams

Predictably, Peterson was the type of player that could trigger your intuition with one play. But there are many others who do the same. Photo by xoque.
Predictably, Peterson was the type of player that could trigger your intuition with one play. But there are many others who do the same. Photo by xoque.

Futures: FSU RB Karlos Williams

by Matt Waldman

People love the idea of being one step ahead of everyone else. It’s why the question, “Who is a player you like in next year’s draft?” is one of the most common I receive.

I spend so much time studying the prospects most likely to declare for this year’s draft that I’m not devoting in-depth analysis to next year’s guys. I get why people want to know and I respect the curiosity, but I dislike this question.

My work is about intuition and process. The longer I do this work, the more I believe in striving for a balance between listening to that inner voice and still honoring the value of a process.

Sometimes you know the first time you lay eyes on a person that there’s something special there. I knew it the first time I saw Alicia Johnson. After our first conversation, I had this feeling of absolute certainty that I just met my future wife.

It was a beautiful moment that was equally terrifying. And why wouldn’t it be? If you have any shred of logic in your being, the idea of knowing something as a fact without having conscious knowledge of the facts is unsettling no matter how many times it occurs during your life.

But there’s a difference between crazy and stupid, so I dated Alicia 13 months before proposing marriage. I needed to know that this “certainty” I was experiencing wouldn’t reveal itself as temporary infatuation. I wanted to make sure that flash of knowledge was illuminating the true dynamics of our relationship and not blinding it.

I may be crazy, but I try to avoid stupidity when at all possible. While I fail often in this regard, marrying Alicia was one of the smartest decisions I’ve made in my life. We have been married four years and the love and underlying certainty that I felt on that first day I met her has never wavered.

I share this Hallmark moment because there are occasions where I have felt that same jolt of certainty when watching football players. Although the implications of meeting the love of your life and identifying a talented college prospect are quite different, that feeling of certainty about a player despite limited exposure to his game is often unsettling. Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

RSP Flashback: Overrated (McFadden/Jones) – Underrated (Forte)

The RSP is to draft analysis as Matt Forte is to NFL running backs - versatile, underrated, and appreciated by those in the know. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.
The RSP is to draft analysis as Matt Forte is to NFL running backs – versatile, underrated, and appreciated by those in the know. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.

The 2008 RB class was a defining moment for my development as a draft analyst.  The love for Darren McFadden was off the charts. Meanwhile there was a back toiling away in New Orleans who I thought was much better.

It was another lesson in sticking to what you see and explaining it all in detail. This time history was kind. Here were my pre-draft takes on Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, Mike Hart, Kevin Smith, and Matt Forte.

Overrated RB Prospects

Darren McFadden, Arkansas: McFadden might be the most difficult player I have evaluated for the RSP. His speed and acceleration are better than all but one back in this class. He also played productively during his career while coming off toe surgery and dealing with bruised ribs. When McFadden can run a play as designed, he can break it open for huge gains because of his elite speed. Although he doesn’t make strong lateral moves, he has the ability to bend a run in a direction while running at great speed. This is a rare ability, but it is still not as effective against a defense as a runner with sharp changes of direction.

The problem is this former QB repeatedly demonstrated noticeable deficiencies that I believe will prevent him from making a consistent impact as an NFL runner: falling backward when making direct contact against first and second level defenders because he runs with poor leverage; the tendency for his legs to go dead upon the initial wrap-up; lacking the ability to change direction with a hard plant and cut; impatience with his blockers; and poor ball protection techniques. Many people have compared McFadden to Eric Dickerson or Adrian Peterson, but the only thing McFadden currently shares with these two backs is his speed.

McFadden’s power is actually something worth calling into question. I am not skeptical of his strength and athleticism. He has plenty of both to be an elite NFL running back. The problem is his knowledge of how to use it. Any type of power you generate when it comes to delivering or deflecting a blow comes from the legs and hips. Not only do these body parts have to be strong, but they also need to be positioned well to transfer energy from your body to your target.

They explain this in more detail on shows that study the physics of martial arts—for example, National Geographic did a special where they hooked up UFC fighters like Randy Couture to sensors that measure force and flow of energy throughout the body. I know it seems a bit like a jump to apply this to a running back, but it’s not. Think about a runner heading through the line of scrimmage and they are come face to face with a DT, LB, or DB greeting them head-on. If the runner’s hips and knees are bent then his shoulders will have to be leaning forward so he can explode into the contact. When he makes contact, the energy transfers from his legs in the ground, up his hips, and to the point of contact with the defender.

A great runner has learned through a combination of repetition and intuitive assimilation of practice and game situations (natural talent) how to subtly change the angle of contact in close quarters and deliver enough of a blow to at least “shed” the tackle, if not just knock guy on his butt. This is why a back such as Eddie George who “ran too high” coming out of college actually was a good NFL player. He was taller than the average back, but he knew how to lower his shoulders and bend his knees and hips so more times than not he exploded into contact.

The same can be said with Eric Dickerson. Most people remember his “upright” running style, but if you watch highlights that don’t involve him running through creases untouched for 40- 60 yards and looking like Carl Lewis in pads, you’ll see a guy who could get low very quick and deliver a blow with his shoulders into contact. Adrian Peterson is capable of the same thing. I never once worried about his upright running style. The guy has monstrously great balance. When I first thought about comparisons to Peterson vs. McFadden I would watch how McFadden would get yanked out-of-bounds by the arm a hit to the hips, or a horse collar and see right away from the standpoint of balance Peterson is uniquely different–he stayed in bounds on plays like this all the time (which is what is one of quite a few things special about his skills). But this also has to do with hip and leg alignment and good use of his strength.

When I see McFadden in the hole he gets yanked backwards more than many backs (even compared to 6-0, 200-lb Felix Smith) in the hole or knocked down on is butt from head-on hits because his knee bend and hip bend is just not there. How can you tell? Look at his shoulders. A back like George or Dickerson often ran as if their shoulders were a big hand on a clock pointed to the number 2 or at worst between the number 1 and number 2. A back like McFadden is somewhere between the 12 and 1 and never quite at 1. It’s why when he gets hit in the hole he’ll fall backwards more than the average NFL-quality prospect. A back like Edgerrin James, who is unbelievably good at getting low, often gets closer to the number 3 position with his shoulder lean as he is still running forward. You can’t do this unless your hips and knees are bent.

It is not to say that McFadden never lowered his shoulders, but it was generally done in the open field with a significant running start against a defensive back. To his credit, he will break some long runs as a situational back because he showed the ability to run the designed offensive plays at Arkansas to perfection. Arkansas did a terrific job tailoring an offense around McFadden and Felix Jones by forcing defenses to overplay one and get burned by the other. SEC defenses have some of the best athletes in the country, especially on defense. But these fast athletes are used in highly aggressive defenses and they are susceptible to a glorified counter play with play action that will force them out of position when that play fake goes to an elite athlete in Jones.

The problems with McFadden show up when he had a reasonably normal freelance opportunity and he didn’t possess the vision or patience to allow these normal alternatives to develop. I’ve heard McFadden can catch, but after watching six games over a two-year period, I saw a runner who dropped easy passes on a consistent basis. Robert Meachem caught a lot of passes in workouts last year with his hands, but struggled as a rookie in-game situations. Once again, this is why game film is invaluable in telling how a player does when the pads come on, the fans are screaming, and the veterans are playing with a speed an intensity they’ve never seen before.

Like Reggie Bush, McFadden will learn that his speed isn’t as much of an advantage in the NFL as it is in college football. Speaking of Bush, I was very high on the USC back and still believe he has the skills to live up to the hype if he can stay healthy and stop pressing so hard to make the big play. In contrast, I think McFadden is more of a project that can develop into a franchise back if he corrects some serious deficiencies and works his butt off to do so.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t shown the maturity off the field and football has come rather easy to him. Having kids out-of-wedlock or some college bar fights doesn’t make him a hardened criminal, but I believe the odds are against him to take his work ethic to the level of a Ladainian Tomlinson or Peyton Manning. And McFadden needs to work this hard to make the jump or he will most likely disappoint. The one way I could see how his evaluation is off base is if McFadden’s injuries severely altered his running style and he was generally cruising off his incredible speed, but I’m skeptical this is the case. My best overall grade of McFadden indicates he clearly has the talent to contribute in the NFL, but needs a lot of work to be the primary offensive weapon.

Darren McFadden had a terrific season a few years ago, but hasn't stayed healthy. or performed consistently as an NFL back. Photo by June 10459.
Darren McFadden had a terrific season a few years ago, but hasn’t stayed healthy. or performed consistently as an NFL back. Photo by June 10459.

Felix Jones, Arkansas: I believe Jones will become a viable situational back in the NFL, but to rate him a top five back in this draft is a big leap of faith in a player who only carried the football 20 times once in his college career. Nearly two-thirds of Jones’ carries were as a receiver on end-arounds with McFadden as the quarterback. Linebackers and defensive ends won’t be as concerned about most NFL quarterbacks as college defenders were with McFadden’s blazing speed. The Wild Hog formation at Arkansas was mutually beneficial to both players. I think Jones has the skills to develop into a productive contributor based on a game where he ran primarily out of the I-formation as the RB, but there are several other backs that proved they could produce without a decoy that runs a 4.33 40-yard dash. Jones will contribute in the NFL as a kick return specialist and change of pace runner, but I’m not as convinced he’ll be the lock as a future starter as others. I have no qualms about drafting him because he has some Clinton Portis potential, but even Portis splitting time with Edgerrin James and Najeh Davenport showed much more on film than Jones.

Mike Hart, Michigan: The former Wolverine is a tough runner with good balance and movement, but he lacks the speed and acceleration to develop along the lines of a back of similar dimensions in this draft that I rated much higher—Ray Rice. Hart is also a fairly significant liability as a pass protector. He ran behind a very large offensive line that seemed to be outclassed versus top competition. Michigan has a recent history of turning out
disappointing skill position players. Although I believe Hart could develop into a solid depth chart player, but he’s too small to be this slow. I project Hart as a change of pace back who is capable of a contributing in relief of an injured starter, but he’ll be exposed for his deficiencies if considered for a starting role.

Underrated RB Prospects

I was wrong about Smith's tentative approach early in his career, but when he was healthy he flashed what I saw overall.  Photo by Carlos Osorio.
I was wrong about Smith’s tentative approach early in his career, but when he was healthy he flashed what I saw overall. Photo by Carlos Osorio.

Kevin Smith, University of Central Florida: How does a 2000-yard rusher qualify as underrated? When analysts and draftniks dismiss him as a baby-faced junior who is too thin, too easy to bring down, and indecisive at the point of attack. The only thing that they have right is the remark about his face—and that doesn’t win or lose football games. Smith is bigger than Darren McFadden and will likely add another 10 pounds of muscle as he matures because it’s his upper body that is on the thinner side. He already has a very muscular trunk and runs with good balance.

The skills that make Smith special are his vision, hard-cutting style, and hip flexibility, which are reminiscent of no back since Marcus Allen. Smith faced 9- and 10-men fronts and demonstrated a decisive style. I watched him have a very productive day against a stout Mississippi State defense that loaded up the box to stop him. Although he needs to do a better job of moving his legs when wrapped up, he has deceptive power and runs out of more hits and ankle tackles than advertised. The fact that he’s one of the best pure runners in this draft and he is still raw as a player makes Smith an underrated commodity.

In a few years Smith has a strong chance to be known as the best back in this class if he can capitalize on his vast talent. What will hold him back early is his need to improve his skills as a receiver. Nevertheless, Smith will excite teammates, fans, and fantasy owners with his running style. My only concern with Smith is his hard-cutting style. Some of the backs that share this aspect of his style suffered knee injuries that robbed them of their skill.

Matt Forte, Tulane: Forte is described as a big back (which is ironic when you consider some of the same people who say this about Forte describe Kevin Smith—a back with the same dimensions—as too thin), but what surprised observers at the combine was his speed and agility. What impressed me was his ability to combine excellent vision with change of direction skills ranging from the subtle to the dramatic. Forte played behind an offensive line routinely over-matched by its opposition and he demonstrated the ability to pick and slide away from penetrating defenders into the backfield. I saw a number of runs from Forte where many backs would have lost 5-7 yards when Forte had gains of 5-7 yards.

This is due to his quick first step, vision, and change of direction. It won’t take more than a year or two for Forte to get a shot as a starter. His greatest deficiency is his inconsistent approach to pass blocking. Even without refined pass protection skills, Forte should compete for time on the field as a rookie.

Matt Forte RSP Sample

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Bobby Rainey’s Career Day

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I’d like to believe that last weekend will be the beginning of a long and fruitful career as an NFL starter for Bobby Rainey, but I’m not naive. The one position in the NFL where there is no shortage of talent is running back. There may be teams that lack a good eye for matching running back talent with its roster, but there are backs training at home with the ability to produce as an NFL starter if called upon.

Still, Rainey’s production is worth a look within the context of a season where Indianapolis traded its first round pick for Trent Richardson to pair him with a run scheme that is supposed to be his best match. Richardson has been far less productive than Donald Brown, a back playing well enough that it would be understandable if Colts fans are angry with Brown for taking so long (and costing so much in additional running back talent added to the roster) to finally begin looking like a quality NFL runner.

As fan, I’d remain patient with Richardson. However, the fact that he is not performing to expectation and needs more time to gel with his offensive line is a red flag similar to the one his teammate Brown first earned years prior. At the same time, the Cleveland Browns cut Rainey after giving him 14 carries in 6 weeks.

Two weeks later in Tampa Bay, and Rainey looks like the underrated back that I thought he was when he was prospect at Western Kentucky. Why is Rainey a fit with the Buccaneers but the Ravens and Browns gave up on him?

Especially the Ravens. Rainey’s game is stylistically comparable to Ray Rice – right down to the stamina that comes from being a 212-pound “short, but not small” back.

My contention? There’s a disconnect between the scouts and front office that bring in a player as a potential contributor and the coaching staff who decides whether to use him – if even give him a true shot. The counter argument is that Rainey would have never earned a shot in Tampa Bay if Doug Martin, Michael Smith (preseason), and Mike James hadn’t gotten hurt. The Buccaneers were desperate for a complement to Brian Leonard, saw Rainey flash against Miami, and rode the hot hand once he continued to maximize his chances a week later against Atlanta.

This is true, but ask yourself this question: Do you think Chris Ogbonnaya could have matched Rainey’s output if he was in the Buccaneers’ backfield last Sunday? Ogbonnaya runs hard, but I have never thought the Browns’ current lead back is the same quality player as Rainey.

The Browns disagreed with this notion. Yet, Cleveland and its offensive line – considered more talented from tackle to tackle than the Buccaneers – hasn’t helped Ogbonnaya gain as many yards on the ground in 10 games as Rainey has gained in two with the Buccaneers.

And what about Willis McGahee? The veteran has 275 yards on 106 carries this year. Rainey has 208 yards on 38 carries in six quarters of work.

You don’t think Rainey – an undrafted free agent cut by the Ravens – was too expensive for the Browns, do you? Perhaps McGahee and Ogbonnaya were too expensive to let go. Or more likely, the Browns didn’t know what it had in Rainey, judged him on his height and draft status, and didn’t give him a chance. By the way, Baltimore shouldn’t get away scot-free from criticism; Bernard Pierce has 279 yards on 103 carries and 2 touchdowns for Baltimore this year.

Of course, Rainey’s next six quarters could be bad enough that he’ll be nothing but a blip in the memories of football fans. While he has the NFL’s attention, let’s look at what Rainey has done thus far that is consistent with his performance as a college prospect.

Patience

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Rainey is adept at both gap and zone plays because of his college offense because he runs with his eyes. Rainey is a patient player whose feet work in conjunction with his eyes. The overall blocking by the Buccaneers line on this play is spotty, but Rainey’s skills make this play worthwhile.

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The Buccaneers pull its tackle behind the guard as the rest of the line slants to the left with the hope of two linemen reaching the linebackers to give Rainey a hole. But as Rainey approaches the exchange point with Mike Glennon, the middle of the line is a logjam. Note the Buccaneers’ No.75 who is pushing the Falcons’ tackle who has his helmet positioned at an angle where he’s poised to penetrate the backfield just as Rainey takes the football.

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If Rainey continues downhill along the trajectory of the exchange point, he collides with the penetration inside No.75. But the undrafted free agent runner pulls off a stutter move that former NFL offensive lineman Ben Muth suggests that top-10 draft pick Trent Richardson should be using more often.

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Rainey doesn’t stop and cut, but he changes his stride just enough to make a slight brake in his pace, allow his teammate to push the penetration to the left, and then continue his course to the hole.

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This is a fine display of footwork and agility integrated with what he sees ahead. Even so, there’s another obstacle  ahead. Check out the defender coming inside the tight end (No.81) at the line of scrimmage and it’s clear that Tampa has done a good job reaching the second level of the Atlanta defense, but not a good job of opening creases at the first. Fortunately, a good runner makes his offensive line look better than it is and Rainey is used to performing well against major college defenses that outplayed his offensive line.

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Rainey makes the decision to work tight to his guard and bend the run outside the oncoming penetration inside the tight end. This is a subtle move but it’s the difference between a two-yard gain and a much more productive run.

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When Rainey reaches the line of scrimmage, he delivers a stiff arm to the defender working inside the tight end. Remember, Rainey is three pounds lighter than Frank Gore’s listed weight. He’s short, not small; and this stiff arm is something you’ll begin to realize is a regular part of his arsenal.

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Because Rainey has the patience, footwork, agility, and power to clear two obstacles before he crosses the line of scrimmage, he’s now able to benefit from the quality blocking at the second level. By design this is backwards for the ideal ground game. While there have been questions about Doug Martin’s struggles and Mike James’ success, this is the type of play where a one-cut, downhill runner like James wouldn’t be as successful.

Rainey comes from a similar style of running as Martin. Although they both might err on the side of trying too hard to break a big run when the line isn’t playing well, they possess the big-play ability to create space that isn’t there.

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Rainey accelerates to the edge and turns the corner on the linebacker for the first down and earning another four yards after crossing the marker.

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Here’s a more straight-forward run where the line does its job upfront and Rainey’s job is to win some match-ups in the second and third level of the defense. This is a 1×1 receiver, 21 personnel, I-formation set on 2nd-and-five where the Buccaneers run a zone play with the line slanting left to set up a cutback to right end.

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This time around, the Tampa line does a good job sealing the Falcons’ line to the left side.

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As with any zone play, Rainey has multiple options. One of them is to follow his lead blocker inside left tackle and as you’ll see in the next two frames, it’s something Rainey is considering as he reaches the exchange point with Glennon.

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Once Rainey receives the ball from his quarterback, it becomes apparent to the runner that there’s not much of a gap inside left tackle. However, he does see the Atlanta defense flowing to the left and this makes the cutback a viable option.

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Rainey covers another two yards along the same trajectory as his fullback before planting his outside leg and cutting back. As you can see below, there’s a nice seal of the right side by No.69 and No.84.

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This is now about burst, quickness, and the line continuing to hold up its end of the bargain.

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Rainey works towards the edge, and just like the first play, bends the run tight enough around his seal (No.69) that he has room to address the cornerback working under the wide receiver in the right flat. There are several runs in this game where Rainey does an excellent job bending around lead blocks to set up creases to avoid a defender ahead of him. In fact, Rainey’s first carry in the game is a good example.

This was a run to right end behind a pulling guard and his fullback. As he reaches the flat, Rainey picks up a block by the fullback and makes a concerted effort to bend tight to that block to clear the block from No.76 ahead.

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As he bends this run ahead of the fullback’s block, the blocked defender manages to wrap Rainey, who runs through the tackle and gains another nine yards up the sideline for the first down.

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Back to this I-formation run with the cutback to right end. Rainey bends his run tight to the edge of his linemen to eliminate as much of the angle of the oncoming defensive back as he can.

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This gives Rainey a nice crease up the right hash for the first down and momentum to finish the play strong.

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Rainey lowers the pads to split the linebacker and safety. It’s this pad level combined with his low center of gravity that repels the safety’s contact.

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The safety slides off Rainey and it’s the linebacker who is forced to wrap and drop the running back two yards later.

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One of my favorite runs in this game incorporates his tight-cornering concept in traffic. It happens with 5:06 in the third quarter on a 2nd-and-10 from a 22 personnel I-formation run versus a Falcons defense playing the run with nine defenders in the box.

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This is a gap-style play where the left guard pulls across center to the right side but as you’ll see, Atlanta’s defense anticipates the trap and forces Rainey to improvise.

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At first, it’s all systems go. The guard pulls across, the fullback approaches the line, and there’s a slight push from the right side of the Buccaneers’ line.

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Just after Rainey takes the exchange, you’ll begin to see the left side of the Falcon’s line penetrate across the face of its blockers  and create a logjam at the point where the trap block occurs.

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Rainey sees the standstill behind the trap block, reads No.91 working across the face of the backside guard, and the runner takes a more creative alternative: He stops, plants, and cuts to the backside tackle. This is a great display of agility, and peripheral vision.

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Rainey executes the cut back and from the vantage point of this frame, it seems unlikely that a runner would exploit a hole between the tight end and the left tackle up the left hash. But this is what happens as you’ll see below.

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Rainey executes this move with another tight bend around the first linemen and this gives him a shot at getting inside the tight end, who manages to bring the linebacker to one knee.

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Rainey makes an even harder lateral cut than the first to exploit this smaller crease and burst up the hash.

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Five yards later, Rainey clears the tight end’s block and has his pads down hill and in position to finish this run strong, falling forward and gaining eight yards on a play that could have easily been a loss of two.

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Leverage and Balance

It’s not just moves at the line of scrimmage that make Rainey a nice surprise for the Buccaneers. This 2nd-and-10 run should have been foiled in the backfield, but Rainey displays a comfort with physical play that is Ray Rice-like.

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The line slants right to begin this run and the defensive tackle over left tackle does a good job crossing the face of the lineman and reaching the backfield.

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By the time Rainey takes the exchange, the tackle is making a beeline for the back and it appears there will be an imminent collision 3-4 yards in the backfield.

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Rainey is too quick for the tackle, dipping outside the penetration towards his teammates who are sealing the left side of the line to the inside.

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As Rainey reaches the line of scrimmage, the defensive end works through the tight end and now has an head-on angle with the runner.

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Rainey once again displays the stiff arm and pad level to work past a man much bigger.

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The key to a good stiff arm is being the first to make contact and delivering the contact with good leverage – and an angle where there’s a chance to work past it.

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Rainey gets the corner, keeps his pads downhill, and gains nearly five yards on a run where two defensive linemen had him dead to rights for a loss.

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Notice that I haven’t shown the long touchdown run? It was a well-blocked play at every level with nice decision-making at the second and third level from Rainey. It was fun to watch, but not nearly as impressive an individual effort as some of these shorter runs.

While I believe Rainey can earn a share of a committee with a team over the next 2-3 seasons and become a lead back if an organization gives him a true opportunity to compete for the job, I’m more skeptical of how the NFL works. Rainey is already 26  and it’s only his second season in the NFL. In contrast, Marshawn Lynch is just a year older than Rainey and is already an eight-year veteran. This is another round peg to Rainey’s resume that doesn’t fit the league’s square holes.

Even so, Rainey should be proud of this game. Because even if he never earns an extended opportunity to compete as a starting running back, no NFL fan, player, coach, scout, or front office employee can ever say that Rainey is not an NFL-caliber running back without appearing ignorant. That’s more than most prospects at this position can claim.

For more analysis of offensive skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

NFL Closeup: Le’Veon Bell’s Progress Report

Progress Report: Don't be a hero. See below.
Progress Report: Don’t be a hero. See below.

Just before the 2013 NFL Draft, I wrote a post about Le’Veon BellThe gist of the analysis addressed why Bell was a polarizing prospect among fans and analysts and why I believed Bell has the athleticism and patience to prove his naysayers incorrect.  Time to check on Bell’s progress.

The major criticisms of Bell’s game are that he 1) runs too much like a small back and won’t make plays with his agility in the NFL and 2) He bounces too many plays outside and needs to run tougher. Based on what I’ve seen this season – and a reflection of much of much of the analysis below – the progress report is a mixed bag.

The critics are correct that Bell makes choices like a small back. However, they are dead wrong about Bell not having enough quickness and agility to make productive plays with this style of running. Because Bell has been able to use his agility and quickness to his advantage, he is bouncing too many plays outside. It’s  not so much that he needs to run tougher because he has shown plenty of power. What’s problematic for some to grasp is that Bell’s agility is at the root of the same types of rookie obstacles that we saw from backs like C.J. Spiller, LeSean McCoy, and Jamaal Charles.

Once this trio of backs learned when to bounce plays outside or drop the pads and pound inside based on down and distance situations, their home run speed became a true factor in their games. The difference between these backs and Bell is that once the Steeler runner learns to base his decision-making on down and distance situations, fans will begin to see the more punishing side of Bell’s game.

Agility and Quickness

Bell has shown that he can bounce plays outside and get the edge on a defense since he earned his first start in the regular season.

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Bell makes two cuts towards the edge, beats defensive end Brian Robison around the corner and takes it to the end zone. It’s a product of decent blocking the the cornerback peaking his head inside the tight end at the edge that gives Bell the angle to the flat. One of the things Bell is good at doing consistently is manipulating defenders to commit in the wrong direction and lose their original angle.

Here’s a run against the Lions last week where Bell earns the first down because of his agility. This is a 1st and 10 with 10:18 in the opening quarter against a Lions’ defense that commits eight defenders in the box to stop the run.

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In a situation like this, the running back has to demonstrate good press and cut back skills to give his teammates a chance to generate a crease he can exploit. Bell will do this by pressing inside towards the right guard and center before bending the run to the tackle and ends.

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Once Bell nears the opening, he cuts outside towards the edge. At this point, Bell opts to make a second press and cut back against the defender at the edge. If he doesn’t do so, the location of the defender’s helmet to the inside shoulder of the tight end indicates that the defender has inside leverage and should be able to wrap Bell at the line of scrimmage for a minimal gain.

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Bell reaches the tight end and edge defender and makes a move towards the outside. When he does this, the edge defender and the defensive back in the right flat will react to the move and slide outside just long enough for the Pittsburgh runner to exploit the gap to the end’s inside shoulder.

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Dip outside . . .

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Edge defender moves head from blocker’s inside shoulder to outside shoulder, giving up his leverage  . . .

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Bell slides inside . . .

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Bell bursts through the gap inside that he creates with his short area agility. Remember, Bell had excellent agility times during pre-draft workouts. If you didn’t trust what your eyes saw with the former Michigan State runner’s quickness during his college career, his workouts substantiated the analysis that Bell’s quickness would not be an issue.

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Bell bursts through the crease and earns 12 yards untouched, forcing the defensive back to give chase rather than approach over top because of his initial move at the edge of the crease.

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Bell dips away from the safety as he crosses the first down marker and is eventually dragged to the turf after a gain of 14 yards.

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Later in the game, Bell bounces a second run to the far side end on a shotgun run for positive yards in the red zone. A big back bouncing outside to the far side tackle from the shotgun in the red zone cannot be a ponderous runner.

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Although this run requires quickness on Bell’s part, it is a well designed run when examining it from the perspective of the formation. The Steelers are in a trips set to the left and this creates a situation where most of the defense is to the left of center. If blocked as planned, the center should be able to reach the linebacker at the right hash, the right guard and right tackle should seal the defensive tackle and defensive end and the receiver in the right flat should handle the cornerback. This could give Bell a one-on-one with the safety.

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So far, so good. Bell takes the exchange as the center works towards the linebacker and the guard and center engage the right side of the Lions’ defensive line.

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Bell considers working between his backside guard and tackle. On the one hand, I like that he’s at least thinking about getting down hill as soon as possible even if he ultimately bounces the run around his tackle. It’s a good choice, too, because Ndamukong Suh is working free of his man and will be meeting Bell unblocked if the runner enters this hole.

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Bell is quick enough to bounce the run around the edge of the right tackle despite the fact that the defender has outside leverage.

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If Bell were as slow as characterized by some, this would be a tackle for a loss within the next step, if not right now. Instead, Bell dips the inside shoulder and takes the corner.

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Bell is fast enough to turn the corner and get his pads downhill. As the cornerback works up the flat, Bell decides to hurdle the defender.

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Up . . .

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Over . . .

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And still maintains his balance as he lands after contact.

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I’m not a big fan of runners hurdling defenders because it’s a reckless decision with more potential harm than good for the back and his football team. However, it’s still a fine display of quickness and agility from a back some deemed unable to execute these types of plays at the highest level of football.

Here’s a rare running play in Pittsburgh where the offensive line creates a hole fast and Bell doesn’t have to do much to create. The primary crease will be at left tackle and the receiver tight to the formation will dip between the end and tackle to root out the defensive back No.28.

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The first course of action is for the Steelers’ left tackle, left guard, center, and right guard to slant to the right side and seal the inside while the ends seal the outside. As you can see with the location of the helmets, the offensive line has done its job moving the Patriots defense inside.

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Bell approaches the line of scrimmage in a straight line and then bends the run outside to press the hole. The wide receiver tight to the formation at the beginning of the play works inside to address the safety. He doesn’t score a direct it but it’s enough to hook the defender and give Bell room to hit the crease. Bell is agile enough to change direction, make a second shift of weight and get downhill with an angle away from the DB.

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The slight stutter and change of direction does the trick and the next three frames show Bell hitting the crease with good burst and gaining positive yards.

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The blocking is sound, Bell makes a quick decision, bursts through the crease, and its a six-yard gain.

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Of course, rarely does an NFL offensive line open this type of crease on a consistent basis. Good NFL starters have to demonstrate superior athleticism and/or creativity and decision-making to earn quality production. Bell has the athleticism. The decision-making is not all there but compared to other backs that have entered this league and had similar gaps of knowledge and maturity, Bell is on the right track.

Agility and Underrated Power

What I’ve read from critics who I know watch football is that Bell needs to run tougher and he needs to use his frame better. In some respects, I agree. However, there are enough examples where Bell displays power than people overlook because of poor statistical production. It’s also an illustration of a back integrating moves with his upper and lower body and powering through contact.

In fact, I’d say Bell does so many things right on this play, that if I could show him his run and the next 2nd and 4 run I’m going to show you, it would prove an instructive for the rookie to know when to create and when to drop the pads and take whatever is ahead of him. At this point of his rookie year, Bell has to do a better job of reading the field and making the decision that will put his team in the best position to succeed.

On this play, Bell bounces the run outside after the two defensive tackles and the inside linebacker show good position inside to foil a run up the middle.

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There are several factors why I think Bell made a good decision to bounce this play outside. The first is the team’s field position. The Steelers are near mid-field and a potential loss of yards here doesn’t compress the range of plays that Pittsburgh might otherwise run if Bell lost yards inside its own 20. Further, it’s a first-quarter run on 2nd and 4. If it was a fourth-quarter run at the edge of field goal range and his team was down by two, then taking a risk to bounce a run outside and lose yards would be a bad decision.

Second, Bell spots three defenders capable of penetrating the middle before he even reaches the line of scrimmage. Bell’s best shot to earn positive yards before dealing with contact is to bounce outside. A third reason, is the position of the cornerback, who is working away from the line of scrimmage and with enough depth that Bell has a chance to win this one-on-one match up.

If the corner had his pads squared down hill and/or closer to the line, Bell would be better served to make one dip to slide to the right side, square his pads as soon as possible and hit the crease against the linebacker. Perhaps he could slide inside this linebacker, avoid direct contact and at least minimize a loss or earn a short gain.  This is what Bell should have done on the next 2nd and 4 run that I show.

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On this play, Bell reads the line and reacts accordingly, sliding to the edge after first considering the next hole from the center.

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As Bell dips to the edge note the cornerback outside the right hash beginning to square his pads and work to the line of scrimmage. Bell has an advantage due to the distance and the fact that he is the first to get his pads downhill and anticipate the defender.

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First, Bell has to take the edge. The rookie does this with a quick stiff arm on the edge defender coming free.

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It takes strength, balance, and quickness to ward off a defender while moving east west without a lot of downhill momentum. But because fans aren’t seeing Bell run through open holes with a start of 5-7 yards before dropping the pads on a linebacker and running over the defender, the runner’s power isn’t as obvious.

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After turning the corner with the stiff arm, Bell gets down hill and assesses his angle on the cornerback. What I like is that within five yards of making two moves to bounce outside and then a stiff arm, Bell still has a head fake in his arsenal to set up the cornerback. The defender bites outside due to the fake and Bell now has a chance to run inside the defender’s angle.

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Now Bell lowers his pads and sizes up the backside pursuit, delivering a forearm on No.28 as he crosses the first down marker.

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It’s not a highlight-reel play, but it’s an effective move for a back who has already made several on just this run alone.

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It’s also a move that affords Bell the opportunity to gain five yards after contact. When Bell can do a better job of knowing when not to create on runs, he’s going to be even more dangerous when these creative opportunities present themselves.

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Another display of power is a four-yard gain on 2nd and 11 with 9:38 in the first quarter of the same game. This is a zone play with Heath Miller functioning as the lead blocker. The line does a good job opening the initial hole, but Miller fails to seal the second level and this is where we get another glimpse of Bell’s strength.

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Pittsburgh double teams the back side end and the center and front side guard attack the Patriots’ linebackers.

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As Bell approaches the exchange point with Roethlisberger, the position of the silver helmets at the line of scrimmage are indicating this play to the right side should yield a crease at the line of scrimmage. The three Patriots defenders in the middle of the field each have their helmets to the left shoulder of the lineman blocking them. Although the right tackle doesn’t have inside leverage on the front side end, Miller is entering the hole and should help seal that edge so Bell can pass.

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As Miller approaches the line of scrimmage, the right tackle has turned the end just enough that Bell should reach the crease untouched. The center has engaged the inside linebacker and the right guard is about to engage Donta Hightower at the right hash.

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Bell does a solid job of pressing this crease with an approach to the middle of the line of scrimmage and then dipping to the right as he reaches the crease. I have seen plenty of criticism that Bell is too slow to the hole and he needs to be more aggressive hitting the crease. If Pittsburgh ran a gap-style running offense where the back follows a pulling lineman to one crease and that’s the only true choice for the play design, then I’d agree.

However, zone blocking requires more patience to the hole and then a hard cut and burst down hill when that hole opens. When the line isn’t opening holes fast enough, the back has two choices: create or take whatever he can get with brute power. Once again, this decision-making boils down to field position and down and distance.

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Bell gets as close to the line of scrimmage as possible and then dips to his right. Because he exhibits the patience necessary for a zone run, the right tackle has been given the time to turn the end to the outside and the guard has reached Hightower in the second level. If Bell hits the intended crease without this slower approach, he’s likely wrapped by the end and hit by the linebacker at the line of scrimmage for no gain. This is part of Darren McFadden’s problem on zone plays and why the Raiders return to more of a gap scheme with him.

It’s another example why fit with a system is important. If health weren’t an issue for McFadden and he was on a more balanced offense, McFadden’s explosive athleticism and aggressive mindset “to and through” the line of scrimmage is a great match for a gap style offense. Some backs can do both well. Bobby Rainey, the Buccaneers’ new back, has shown good skill as a zone runner and gap runner at Western Kentucky just as he did Sunday against the Falcons. If I were to assess which style he’s best at, I’d say he’s better suited to zone, but his facility with both made him an underrated player.

As Bell crosses the line of scrimmage, Hightower gets outside leverage on the Steelers’ guard.

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Hightower, who has the size, weight, and strength advantage on Bell, hits the running back high. However, Bell isn’t the smallish back Hightower is used to running roughshod and the Steelers’ runner doesn’t collapse to the turf on his side despite the linebacker initiating an indirect collision.

In the RSP publication, I grade players on three basic types of balance when they are carrying the football: direct collisions, indirect collisions, and making cuts. Every ball carrier should display good balance when making a cut. If he doesn’t, then he will have initial struggles at the NFL level and he will need to address if footwork as soon as possible.

Skill with handling direct collisions are more times than not a matter of technical skill. Whether a 185-pound scat back or a 250-pound bruiser, good pad level, knee bend, and attacking the oncoming collision can help a player maintain balance or at least fall forward.

However, one of the true ways to tell if a ball carrier has uncommon balance is whether he can stay upright when a bigger man gets a flush hit on him from an indirect angle. Ryan Mathews has had his ups and downs as a professional – and much of it has stemmed from how he handles adversity. When it comes to pure ball carrying, Mathews’ balance to bounce off flush hits from an indirect angle was one of several factors that made him a first-round talent.

Bell doesn’t lose his footing with this hit and he continues forward as the defensive back slips inside Miller and delivers a second hit with Hightower wrapped around the Steelers’ back.

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As we see at least once a week in football, a second hit can often dislodge the first defender from the ball carrier and spring that runner loose. The defensive back makes most of his contact on Bell and the runner doesn’t go down. Instead, Bell transfers some of the energy of that collision into momentum to spin.

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Bell begins to spin loose in the frame below as Hightower is forced to slide to Bell’s hips in an attempt to drop the runner.

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At this point, it’s a stalemate as a third Pats defender enters the fray.

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The whistle blows and Bells’ progress is ruled stopped after four yards. Not a great play on 2nd and 11, but this is tough running. It’s not tough and productive for the situation, but the tools are there. Rome wasn’t built in a day and most NFL running games aren’t built during a season.

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Decision-Making and Maturity: Room for Improvement

Bell’s athleticism can get him into trouble when the Steelers’ offensive line fails to open a crease and the rookie has the option to create or bull his way into the backs of his teammates and take whatever he can get. As I mentioned earlier, he doesn’t always know how to determine when he should do one or the other.

Here’s a 2nd-and-2 run where I would characterize the play as “right process, wrong outcome” because of the down and distance, the score of the game, time on the clock, and the field position. The Steelers spread the field just enough that it hopes Bell can find a crease on this short-yardage play in Patriots’ territory early in the first quarter of this scoreless game.

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As Bell takes the exchange, note the various defenders I’ve circled below and the gaps they are covering. There is no true open at this point of the run. If this was 3rd and 2 or the setting of the game was different, Bell might be best served to ram the ball behind the lineman with the greatest push and get whatever he can to set up a 3rd-and-short.

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However, I believe Bell has license to create on this play and he tries to press the hole to the right by beginning his approach towards the left and bending it back.

 

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The Patriots defense has done a good job filling the gaps inside (blue and red) and covering the front side and back side gaps (green and orange).

 

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At this point, Bell should probably lower the pads and take on the linebacker coming over top or try to slide outside No.68 and squeeze the run between this blocker and the backside defensive back No.37. Neither of these options are likely to produce a significant gain, but this “find the home run hole” mentality is what Bell has to temper.

 

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The linebacker shoots the gap, hits Bell in the legs, and drops the runner for a loss. Again, bad outcome but the setting allows some leeway for Bell to be creative and fail with a short loss. It happens to every back in the NFL.

Here’s a play where Bell has to be more conscientious about his decision-making in contrast to the 2nd-and-4 gain where he earns five yards after contact and did a good job reading the defensive back’s position so he could bounce the play outside. This play Bell does everything wrong.

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The Steelers’ line hopes to create its primary crease off right tackle and use the fullback, tight end, and wide receiver to seal the edge and second level so Bell has a one-on-one with the safety at the right hash. This is the type of play that is tempting for an athletic runner to bounce outside. Fellow Big-10 alum Laurence Maroney appeared to have turned the corner on a play similar to this during a 59-0 blowout of the Titans in a snowstorm when he kept a play inside, lowered the pads through the defensive back and busted the run up the gut for a touchdown. However Maroney failed to turn the same corner that many of his contemporaries did and left the league shortly after.

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Bell approaches the exchange point and the interior linemen are already engaged. If they can force the Patriots defensive linemen to work to left, Bell has a nice press and cut to the right. The frame below illustrates that this is exactly what happens.

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Bell will begin his press and cut between the frame above and the next shot. Note the position of the safety. Bell needs to read this player on this 2nd-and-4 run. The Steelers are already down by seven and approaching midfield. This is a time to make a conservative decision and if he breaks some tackles in the first or second level, great. If not, third and short isn’t a bad situation for Pittsburgh.

 

 

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As Bell begins his cutback in the frame above, note the fullback working through the crease towards the linebacker just inside the right hash. Bell needs to focus on hitting his crease with downhill momentum and getting his pads low. If the fullback gets a good block, Bell might be able to slide inside the safety or run through the defensive back’s hit for a first down.

The worst-case scenario for his play is the edge defender on Heath Miller sliding inside and wrapping Bell at the line of scrimmage. Again, not a big deal in the scheme of this series. However, Bell still has the home run mentality at work and it’s the rookie runner who fails his teammates in this situation.

In the frame below, Bell sees the edge defender’s helmet on Miller’ inside shoulder and fixates on the possibility of bouncing the run to the edge. The corner store is in sight for Bell and he hasn’t learned that there’s a time when taking a side trip is a bad idea. With the safety in position to earn a good angle through three possible gaps and close to the line of scrimmage with his pads down hill, this is one of them. Remember, on the 2nd and 4 play I showed where Bell bounced the play outside for a nice gain, the defensive back began the play working away from the line of scrimmage, the field position was different, and the game was scoreless.

 

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Bell decides to bounce the play to his right because of his fixation on the edge defender’s head inside the tight end. When focusing solely on the first level, this is the correct read. However, within context of the play design and the defensive back, it’s all wrong. This bounce outside will also give the linebacker outside leverage on the fullback.

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Bell works across the back of his tight end in the frame below and at that point, the play is over. The edge defender pops outside as the safety continues shooting the inside gap. Bell realizes he has made a mistake midway through his gap and displays the tentative nature that can plague any good zone runner when he makes a bad decision.

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Now Bell engages in some unproductive, wishful thinking and tries to revisit the inside gap. The safety shows Bell why it’s too late.

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Bell is now forced to plow through the defender to reach the line of scrimmage and earn minimal yardage. If he didn’t get greedy, he might have earned four yards with good pad level, downhill momentum, and a leg drive if he displayed greater maturity.

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Bell is a good, young player in a difficult position. The Steelers’ offensive line is struggling, the coaching staff is under pressure, and it’s possible we might see a new offensive system – if not a new staff – in 2014. If Pittsburgh has a different coach next year, Bell – and what he does best as a runner – might not be the best fit for this organization. It will be easy to view the rookie as part of the problem.

If you look at Bell’s skills and decision-making on the field, he’s one issue away from upping his 3.1 yards-per-carry average to the 4.1-4.3 range. Bell needs to study these down and distance situations, do a better job reading the field, and repeat after me when he sees them: Don’t be a hero.

 

For more analysis of offensive skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Bryce Brown and the NFL Parable of the Backup RB

[youtube=http://youtu.be/9nBxvvB8UDo]

This parable begins with Ricky Watters. The former 49er, Eagles, and Seahawk sports a mediocre career yards per carry average of 4.1 and bad rap for saying to the media “For who, for what?”. Granted, Watters earned his reputation as running back with a diva wide receiver mentality for celebrating runs under 20 yards with animated celebrations and public criticism of former offensive coordinator John Gruden. He’s also in the news recently for unacceptable behavior as a high school coach.

When it comes to talking about Watters’ skills as a runner, it’s all noise that masks the power, agility, versatility, and durability of an instinctive and valuable football player. From 1994-2000, Watters touched the ball no fewer than 333 times per season. During this span his season totals were no worse than 1110 yards rushing, 40 receptions, 7 touchdowns, and 1550 total yards from scrimmage. And the fact he never missed a game during this seven-year span belies his  “For who, for what?’ reputation.

In 2000,  Watters was the bell cow of the Seattle Seahawks on his way to posting 1855 yards from scrimmage, which matched a career high that he earned 5 years earlier in Philadelphia. It was the year before Watters would just play four games before retiring from football because, already fearful of air travel, he no longer wished to fly in a post-9-11 America. 

Watters’ unexpected farewell to the game didn’t leave the Seahawks empty-handed. Before the 2000 season, Seattle picked Alabama runner Shaun Alexander with the 19th overall pick in the NFL Draft and felt so confident in its depth that it made a trade with Green Bay that sent the Seahawks’ third-string runner and a fifth round pick  to the Packers for a sixth round pick and defensive back Fred Vinson.

Vinson was a second round pick in 1999 who, not long into his Seattle career, injured his knee in a basketball game and never made a meaningful contribution to the team.  The Packers got the better end of the stick. The runner it received in return was Ahman Green, the third round pick of the Seahawks in 1998.

Green was 21 when he left Nebraska for the NFL. He didn’t start a game during his tenure in Seattle, earning all of 61 carries, 329 yards rushing, 3 catches for 2 years, and a touchdown. From the get go in Green Bay, the Seahawks de facto third string runner before the trade earned five straight 1000-yard seasons.

Ahman Green’s Production (2000-2004)

Year G GS Att Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng
2000 16 11 263 1175 10 39 4.5 73.4 16.4 73 559 7.7 3 31
2001* 16 16 304 1387 9 83 4.6 86.7 19.0 62 594 9.6 2 42
2002* 14 14 286 1240 7 43 4.3 88.6 20.4 57 393 6.9 2 23
2003* 16 16 355 1883 15 98 5.3 117.7 22.2 50 367 7.3 5 27
2004* 15 15 259 1163 7 90 4.5 77.5 17.3 40 275 6.9 1 48

We don’t know why the Seahawks preferred to pick Alexander in the first round when it had a back of Green’s caliber on its bench. However, Seattle isn’t the only team to deal away backup runners who succeeded elsewhere.  Priest Holmes had a 1268 yards from scrimmage and 7 touchdowns for the Ravens in 1998 as a second-year undrafted free agent. After Holmes only played part of the 1999 season, the Ravens picked Jamal Lewis in 2000 and dealt Holmes to the Chiefs in 2001. 

One can imagine the Ravens didn’t believe Holmes was a good fit as a power runner due to his size and feared the back would not be durable. While Baltimore was correct with its long view of the two players, Holmes had three seasons between 2001-2003 where he only missed two games and accumulated 960 carries,6587 yards, and 61 total touchdowns.  Lewis was no slouch but even with 2271 total yards in 2003, the Ravens runner missed the 2001 season due to an ACL injury and accumulated only 695 carries, 4040 total yards, and 21 total touchdowns during the same span of Holmes’ reign with the Chiefs.

Cedric Benson didn’t fit with the Bears from 2005-2007 and never had more than 674 yards rushing in a season with Chicago. However, he had three straight 1000-yard seasons for the Bengals. Michael Turner toiled behind LaDainian Tomlinson for four years but had three seasons in four years with Atlanta where he gained no less than 1340 yards on the ground and four straight seasons with at least 10 rushing touchdowns.

Tiki Barber was a role player for the Giants from 1997-1999, but from 2000-2006 he had six 1000-yard seasons during that seven-year span, including rushing totals of 1518, 1860, and 1662 during his final three years in New York. Stephen Davis, a back with four years out of five with no less than 1318 yards rushing in Washington and Carolina, was a reserve for his first three years in the league and only tallied 815 yards on the ground during that span.

So when I tell you to be patient with the likes of Eagles runner Bryce Brown, think of these backs that took me longer to write about than it to do find them as fits with my overall point. I profiled Brown as a blue chip talent despite a less than ordinary and uninspiring college career. Today, I’m revisiting Brown during his second year to see if his talent still merits patience. The answer is a resounding yes.

Near-Freakish Size-Acceleration-Agility

Here’s a run last week against Green Bay where Brown provides fans and opponents a glimpse of his eye-opening skill. This is a run designed to go off tackle where the Packers penetrate the edge and have an angle on the runner, but Brown’s speed, balance, and agility belie his size.

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You can see Brown is forced to make his bend outside as soon as he takes the exchange, because of penetration up the middle. This forces a race from the beginning and based on the penetration at the edge, Brown is at a disadvantage in terms of angles. But you’ll see why speed can erase some of a team’s ills.

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Brown accelerates and turns the corner on the tackle and once he does, he has a nice alley up the sideline to reach the line of scrimmage.

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Although difficult to see with still photos, the acceleration it took to reach this corner is often too much for a runner to bend the run at this angle up the sideline. Not so for Brown, who then finds his second gear to burst up the boundary for the first down.

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Then here comes the Reggie Bush at USC move of cutting the run to the inside after generating a ton of momentum. Check out how sharp Brown’s angle is on this cutback after he makes a minor dip inside No.52 at the sideline.

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This is as close to a 90-degree cut as you’re going to see from a running back in this situation. While he eventually slips to the ground trying to make a second cut in the open field, the acceleration and control is on par with LeSean McCoy, a back two inches shorter and at least 10 pounds lighter.

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Vision-Balance-Strength

Brown’s strength, quickness, and reaction time is also on display with another play in this game where many NFL starters would have been dropped for a loss. This is a 12 personnel pistol run designed to go with his line slanting to the left, but the penetration forces a cutback to the right edge.

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As Brown takes the exchange he spots No.53 flying down the line as the backside pursuit without a shot of a teammate blocking this Packer. The angle is clear that Brown gets hit before he reaches the line of scrimmage if he continues his path down hill. It’s impressive that Brown spotted this possibility before the snap and even more impressive that he could diagnose the angle with his peripheral vision while taking the exchange at an angle away from this pursuit.

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Brown plants his left foot and makes a sharp cut outside the pursuit, but with second defender coming down hill unblocked, Brown appears dead to rights.

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However, the pad level is good enough to get under the first hit. Still, Brown’s pad level doesn’t create great leverage here; this is raw strength and balance.

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Brown runs through the first wrap two yards behind the line and during this run he has to step over the second defender.

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There is a similar a play I saw Eddie Lacy make at Alabama

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Brown turns a loss of three into a gain of four with his vision before and after the snap as well as his elite athleticism. This is the type of play we see his teammate McCoy make. We also see it from the likes of Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, and Jamaal Charles.

 

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Brown still has lessons to learn as he develops his NFL game, but flashes like these encourage me to believe this second year runner has the talent to do what Green did after leaving the Seahawks for the Packers.

For more analysis of offensive skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures at Football Outsiders: Baylor RB Lache Seastrunk

This shot begins one of my favorite runs of the year, painted courtesy of Baylor's Lache Seastrunk.
This shot begins one of my favorite runs of the year, painted courtesy of Baylor’s Lache Seastrunk.

Futures: Baylor RB Lache Seastrunk

by Matt Waldman

There’s no position I enjoy watching more than running back. One of the reasons I love studying the position is that relative to other roles on the field, there’s a tremendous amount of diversity among players that can excel at the job.

No other position in football has such a wide range of acceptable physical dimensions. There was a time when Brandon Jacobs weighed 87 pounds more than Warrick Dunn. Both players sport multiple 1000-yard seasons. Adrian Peterson is almost a half-foot taller than Frank Gore, but they are about same weight and inspire similar frustration among opposing defenders.

Watch Peterson, Herschel Walker, and Bo Jackson and they seem chiseled from ebony. By comparison, Jerome Bettis and Craig “Ironhead: Heyward were amorphous lumps of clay. None were a joy to tackle.

Cleveland’s 6-foot-2, 232-pound fullback Jim Brown and Chicago’s 5-foot-10, 200-pound Walter Payton are far apart on the dimension spectrum of running backs, but is there any separation between them when it came to dying hard on every play? For that matter, is there anyone else even close?

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Remember The Name: C.J. Anderson

[youtube=http://youtu.be/mxSyBglGmeA]

In a season where quality running back production has been as scarce as ever, it’s vital to consider talent that has lurked behind the scenes. Broncos rookie C.J. Anderson is that kind of player. The former backup at Cal is getting a shot with Denver’s active roster this weekend ahead of Ronnie Hillman, who won’t dress after fumbling the ball inside the Indianapolis five last weekend.

It’s unknown whether Anderson will get a chance to see playing time. And I can’t tell you if the rookie will look as good as he did in the preseason or experience growing pains the way the Patriots wide receiving corps struggled in September. I will share that as a fantasy owner, Anderson has been sitting on a majority of my dynasty league rosters since August.

Ryan Riddle is also a big fan of Anderson’s game. Riddle, a record holder at Cal, speculated that Anderson’s role as a backup was due more to politics than talent. Based on what I studied last year, I believe there’s validity to that assertion.

Based on what I saw from Anderson this summer, I think he has the best combination of physical dimensions, agility, burst, and balance of the backs on this roster. Knowshon Moreno is a better passing down back, but I think Anderson offers more as a runner and, with more experience, he has the potential to be as good as Moreno in the passing game.

In fact, I think Anderson showed me more agility this summer in Broncos’ camp than what I saw at Cal. His impressive preseason combined with lackluster performances from Hillman and some doubts about Ball led me to hold onto Anderson where I could.

Here’s a sample of what I have on Anderson in the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.  

Player Comparison:  Rudi Johnson due to  Anderson’s thick frame, well-balanced style, and a downhill mentality. He’s an economic runner with good feet like Johnson.

Overall Assessment: Anderson is a hard runner with a good burst, skill as a pass protector, and capable of starting for a team if called upon. I think he could surprise in the NFL as a lead back in a committee and even be the full-time starter if called upon.

Profile of C.J. Anderson, Cal (5-8, 224)
Anderson is a strong runner with good lower body development that helps him explode through contact. He possesses a low center of gravity and is rarely knocked backward. Anderson runs with low pad level and hits holes hard, but he also demonstrates patience and cutback skill to press a hole to let his blocks develop. He does a good job anticipating interior blocks and working through double teams just as they develop to hit tight creases for positive gains.

He also has a good enough burst to get through fairly tight creases and beat an unblocked backside defender to the crease. Although he plays with quickness, he appears to be a one-speed runner without a lot of lateral agility once at full speed and into the secondary. A real positive of Anderson’s game is his feet, which are a lot like that of former Bengals runner Rudi Johnson who didn’t thrive with elaborate cuts, but could changed his stride to get downfield and avoid trash in the hole or make one cut. Anderson does the same thing.

The Golden Bear also demonstrates press and cut skills on zone plays. He’s more of a one-cut runner with decent feet, but I didn’t see evidence of great elusiveness. His power is a little better than functional, but not extraordinary.

The Cal back carries the ball under his outside arm (right or left) and as a receiver he catches the ball with his hands, does a good job working with his quarterback to present a good target, and he can take a hit in the act of securing the football.

Pass blocking is good and can get better. Sometimes Anderson will “catch” a defender with his hands out in pass protection rather than deliver a punch, but when he decides to strike with his hands, he displays excellent placement and power with good technique. He also displays accurate diagnosis the oncoming pressure. I think he has a chance to surprise at the NFL level because of his build, style, and smarts as a runner. I think he can be a first-line reserve back in the NFL because he does everything well enough to start, but nothing extraordinary that would warrant him an instant opportunity to compete for the job until he at least proves what he can do at the pro level in some games.

C.J. Anderson RSP Play-By-Play Reports and Grading Checklists

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Boiler Room: Florida State RB James Wilder

Running backs are like motorcyclists, eventually they'll lay it down and have trouble walking away from it. Photo by Kyn_Chung.
Running backs are like motorcyclists, eventually they’ll lay it down and have trouble walking away from it. Photo by Kyn_Chung.

I remember James Wilder, Sr.  A 6’3″, 225-pound wrecking ball where he had two seasons in Tampa Bay with a combined 772 carries for 2844 yards and 23 touchdowns, Wilder is the best running back in Buccaneers history if you ask me.  One of those years, Wilder had 407 carries, 1544 yards rushing, 13 rushing touchdowns and 85 receptions for 685 yards for an 8.1 yards per catch average.

In case you didn’t do the math, that’s 492 touches for 2229 yards from scrimmage – that’s the 16th best yards from scrimmage total in the history of the NFL and the most touches by a player large margin:

NFL Single-Season Touches Leaders – Courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com

Rank Player (age), + – HOFer, Bold – Active Touch Year Teams
1. James Wilder (26) 492 1984 TAM
2. Larry Johnson (27) 457 2006 KAN
3. Eddie George (27) 453 2000 TEN
4. LaDainian Tomlinson (23) 451 2002 SDG
5. Edgerrin James (22) 450 2000 IND
6. Marcus Allen+ (25) 447 1985 RAI
7. Ricky Williams (26) 442 2003 MIA
8. Eric Dickerson+ (23) 441 1983 RAM
9. Emmitt Smith+ (26) 439 1995 DAL
10. Jamal Anderson (26) 437 1998 ATL
11. Steven Jackson (23) 436 2006 STL
12. Emmitt Smith+ (23) 432 1992 DAL
13. Edgerrin James (21) 431 1999 IND
14. Eric Dickerson+ (26) 430 1986 RAM
Ricky Williams (25) 430 2002 MIA
Gerald Riggs (25) 430 1985 ATL
17. Walter Payton+ (30) 426 1984 CHI
Barry Foster (24) 426 1992 PIT
19. Eric Dickerson+ (28) 424 1988 IND
20. Deuce McAllister (25) 420 2003 NOR

In addition to these season marks, Wilder once toted the ball a record 48 times in a single game (and 47 in another contest a year later – good for second on the all-time list). We’re talking about a tough football player in an era of running the football that we’re only given reminders of nowadays.

I think this is important to share, because if the Matthews family has a potential genetic predisposition for athletic longevity in a punishing sport; the Long family breeds linemen; the Manning family farms quarterbacks; and the Winslow family produces tight ends, then 6’1″, 229-pound James Wilder, Jr. has a chance to be a damn good pro running back. Wilder runs a lot like his dad, but there’s an added degree of recklessness that could be a double-edged sword for the young man with an old-school style and it leaves me conflicted about his future.

A series I started last spring at the RSP blog is The Boiler RoomOne of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play. Yet, if I need a play to add to the highlight reel that will help a team make a decision where to slot Wilder, Jr. on its board, this is my nomination – not because it’s the most impressive play as much as it’s a telling indication of the player in terms of that double-edged sword. This is a run from a 20 personnel shotgun formation inside the Wake Forest red zone with 6:48 in the first half. The next 24 seconds, which includes a replay is a display of strength, agility, recklessness, and flexibility that leaves me ambivalent about Wilder, Jr.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULXz1le2tlU&?start=44w=560&h=315]

This hurdle of the defender is different from what you’ve seen from the likes of Brian Leonard, Knowshown Moreno, and LeGarrette Blount in recent years. Those three backs were known for these plays in the second and third levels of the defense. The hurdling these three backs demonstrated as collegians were prettier plays.

However, this hurdle from Wilder comes within two steps of turning down hill through the hole! While the Russian and Chinese judges would mark him down on form,  they’d begrudgingly own him top marks on technical difficulty. This is a nine-yard gain with six coming after the hurdle.

What impresses me most on this play is what we see on the replay. Notice how flexible Wilder is in his legs and hips to rotate his lower body this dramatically. Then there’s the strength to maintain balance at this awkward of a landing point. This is a balls-out, reckless, and fearless run where one can see the old-school influence of watching his father.

However like his father – and most old-school runners – Wilder has admitted to playing with numbness in his shoulder after laying the wood on defenders. He has that “slap some dirt on it” mentality that  teammates and coaches love as long as he can go out there and produce. Shoulder injuries and ball carrying go together like shrimp and grits, so I wouldn’t be alarmed about Wilder’s admission.

In the NFL and the NFL media’s hyper-analytic draft environment, medical reports might be a driver in Wilder’s draft stock. Just like Eddie Lacy’s stock fell at least two rounds further than anticipated at least due in part to a toe injury, Wilder’s shoulder may earn some extra scrutiny – especially aggravating the wound in September that hindered him throughout 2012.

Watch the play again and think about his disregard for his body. For a long, lanky, and punishing back, I can see some reasons for concern. At the same time, I love watching him at his best. Here’s a taste of Wilder in the second and third level of the Clemson defense – yes, this is highlight No.2, but I’m a sucker for punishing, determined runners.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULXz1le2tlU&?start=345w=560&h=315]

Again, note the balance and strength of his legs to take a hit that moves his body so his legs plant at an awkward position and he stays upright. While impressive, I just can’t shake the feeling that there’s too great of a tendency for awkward footing and landings that won’t end well. My younger brother, who is a licensed pilot will tell you than any landing you can walk away from is a good landing. However, I’m reminded more of the adage among motorcyclists: It’s not if you’ll lay the bike down, but when.

Running backs are in this respect like stunt bikers. Eventually they’re going to lay it down in a way that they’ll have trouble walking away from the crash. I love Wilder’s battering ram determination, flexibility, and balance. Especially his flexibility. Here’s highlight No.3.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULXz1le2tlU&?start=563w=560&h=315]

That’s a Reggie Bush-like extension without a long, downhill start and doing it while carrying an extra 20 pounds. I smile every time I watch Wilder as a lead blocker making diving plays to upend defenders for his quarterback or backfield teammates. He’s a tough football player. However, I don’t get the same feeling of reckless longevity when I watch Wilder the way I do when I watch Adrian Peterson or Walter Payton or even Wilder, Sr.

I hope I’m wrong.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.