Category Wide Receiver

WR Size: Is It Valid Analysis? By Chase Stuart and Matt Waldman

June 2, 2014 0 Comments read Players, Wide Receiver

If correlation were causation, this photo and others like it wouldn’t exist. Photo by Dr. Clifford Choi.

Chase Stuart of Football Perspective drops by to collaborate on the topic of wide receiver size and the limits of applying analytics to the subject.

Matt Waldman: Stats Ministers and Their Church

I’m a fan of applying analytics to football. Those who do it best possess rigorous statistical training or are disciplined about maintaining limits with its application. Brian Burke wrote that at its core, football analytics is no different than the classic scientific method. Perhaps unsurprisingly, there are some bad scientists out there, who behave more like religious zealots than statisticians. I call them Stats Ministers. They claim objectivity when their methodology and fervor is anything but.

Stats Ministers scoff at the notion that anyone would see value in a wide receiver under a specific height and weight. They love to share how an overwhelming number of receivers above that specific height and weight mark make up the highest production tiers at the history of the position, but that narrow observation doesn’t prove the broader point that among top-tier prospects, taller wide receivers fare better than shorter ones. In fact, what the Stats Ministers ignore is that a disproportionately high number of the biggest busts were above a certain height and weight, too. Having a microphone does not mean one conducted thoughtful analysis: it could also mean one has a bully pulpit where a person with less knowledge and perspective of the subject will look at the correlation and come to the conclusion that it must be so.

However, correlation isn’t causation. Questioning why anyone would like a smaller wide receiver based on larger number of top wide receivers having size is an example of pointing to faulty ‘data backed’ points. Pointing to historical data can only get you so far: it’s not that different than the reasoning that led to Warren Moon going undrafted. That’s an extreme comparison, of course, but the structure of the argument is the same: there were very few black quarterbacks who had experienced any sort of success in the NFL, so why would Moon? Sometimes you have to shift eras to see in a clear light what “correlation isn’t causation” really looks like.

It was overwhelmingly obvious that Moon could play quarterback if you watched him. But if you’re prejudiced by past history rather than open to learning what to study on the field, then it isn’t overwhelmingly obvious. Data can help define the boundaries of risk, but when those wielding the data want to eliminate the search for the exceptional they’ve gone too far. Even as we see players get taller, stronger, and faster, wide receivers under 6’2″, 210 pounds aren’t the exception.

Analytics-minded individuals employed by NFL teams — who have backgrounds in statistics – don’t follow this line of thoughts. Those with whom I spoke acknowledged that there is an effective player archetype of the small, quick receiver. They recognize the large number of size of shorter/smaller receivers who have been impact players in the NFL that make the size argument moot: Isaac Bruce, Derrick Mason, Wes Welker, Marvin Harrison, DeSean Jackson, Torry Holt, Steve Smith, Jerry Rice, Tim Brown, Antonio Brown, Pierre Garcon, Victor Cruz, and Reggie Wayne are just a small sample of players who did not match this 6-2, 210-pound requirement.

This size/weight notion and discussion of “calibration” or what I think they actually mean–reverse regression–is also a classic statistical case of overfitting. There are too many variables and complexities to the game and the position to throw up two data points like height and weight and derive a predictive model on quality talent among receivers. The only fact about big/tall receivers is that they tend to have a large catch radius. Otherwise, there is no factual basis to assume that these players have more talent and skill.

The dangerous thing about this type of thinking is that many of these “Stats Ministers” were trained using perfect data sets in the classroom and their math is reliant on “high fit” equations. When they tackle a real world environment like football they still expect these lessons to help them when it won’t. However, there are plenty of people who are reading and buying into what they’re selling. I showed my argument above to Chase Stuart and asked him to share his thoughts. Here’s his analysis:

Chase Stuart: Analysis of the Big vs. Small WR Question

We should begin by first getting a sense of the distribution of height among wide receivers in the draft. The graph below shows the number of wide receivers selected in the first two rounds of each draft from 1970 to 2013 at each height (in inches):

The distribution is somewhat like a bell curve, with the peak height being 6’1″, and the curve being slightly skewed thereafter towards shorter players (more 6’0 receivers than 6’2″, more 5’11″ receivers than 6’3″, and so on).

Now, let’s look at the number of WRs who have made three Pro Bowls since 1970:

The most common height for a wide receiver who has made three Pro Bowls since the AFL-NFL merger is 72 inches. And while Harold Jackson is the only wide receiver right at 5’10 to make the list, players at 71 and 69 inches are pretty well represented, too. I suppose it’s easy to forget smaller receivers, so here’s the list of wide receivers 6′0 or shorter with 3 pro bowls:

Mel Gray
Mark Duper
Mark Clayton
Gary Clark
Steve Smith
Wes Welker
Harold Jackson
Charlie Joiner
Cliff Branch
Lynn Swann
Steve Largent
Stanley Morgan
Henry Ellard
Anthony Carter
Anthony Miller
Paul Warfield
Drew Pearson
Wes Chandler
Irving Fryar
Tim Brown
Sterling Sharpe
Isaac Bruce
Rod Smith
Marvin Harrison
Hines Ward
Donald Driver
Torry Holt
Reggie Wayne
DeSean Jackson

Recent history

Now, let’s turn to players drafted since 2000. This next graph shows how many wide receivers were selected in the first two rounds of drafts from ’00 to ’13, based on height:

As you can see, the draft is skewing towards taller wide receivers in recent years. Part of that is because nearly all positions are getting bigger and taller (and faster), but the real question concerns whether this trend is overvaluing tall wide receivers.

It’s too early to grade receivers from the 2012 or 2013 classes, so let’s look at all receivers drafted in the first round between 2000 and 2011. There were 21 receivers drafted who were 6’3 or taller, compared to just 14 receivers drafted who stood six feet tall or shorter. On average, these taller receivers were drafted with the 13th pick in the draft, while the set of short receivers were selected, on average, with the 21st pick.

So we would expect the taller receivers to be better players, since they were drafted eight spots higher. But that wasn’t really the case. Both sets of players produced nearly identical receiving yards averages:

Type	Rookie	Year 2	Year 2
Short	535	669	709
Tall	567	676	720

Taller wide receivers have fared ever so slightly better than shorter receivers. But once you factor in draft position, that edge disappears. If you look at the ten highest drafted “short” receivers, they still were drafted later (on average, 17th overall) than the average “tall” receiver. But their three-year receiving yards line is better, reading 563-694-790. In other words, I don’t see evidence to indicate that shorter receivers, once taking draft position into account, are worse than taller receivers. If anything, the evidence points the other way, suggesting that talent evaluators are more comfortable “reaching” for a taller player who isn’t quite as good. Players like Santana Moss, Lee Evans, Percy Harvin, and Jeremy Maclin were very productive shorter picks; for some reason, it’s easy for some folks to forget the success of those shorter receivers, and also forget the failures of taller players like Charles Rogers, Mike Williams, Jonathan Baldwin, Sylvester Morris, David Terrell, Michael Jenkins, Reggie Williams, and Matt Jones.

But that’s just one way of answering the question. What I did next was run a regression using draft value using the values from my Draft Value Chart and height to predict success. If the draft was truly efficient — i.e., if height was properly being incorporated into a player’s draft position–then adding height to the regression would be useless. But if height was being improperly valued by NFL decision makers, the regression would tell us that, too.

To measure success, I used True Receiving Yards by players in their first five seasons. I jointly developed True Receiving Yards with Neil Paine (now of 538 fame), and you can read the background about it here and here.

The basic explanation is that TRY adjusts receiver numbers for era and combines receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns into one number, and adjusts for the volume of each team’s passing attack. The end result is one number that looks like receiving yards: Antonio Brown, AJ Green, Josh Gordon, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, and Demaryius Thomas all had between 1100 and 1200 TRY last year.

First, I had to isolate a sample of receivers to analyze. I decided to take 20 years of NFL drafts, looking at all players drafted between 1990 and 2009 who played in an NFL game, and their number of TRYs in their first five seasons. (Note: As will become clear at the end of this post, I have little reason to think this is an issue. But technically, I should note that I am only looking at drafted wide receivers who actually played in an NFL game. So if, for example, height is disproportionately linked to players who are drafted but fail to make it to an NFL game, that would be important to know but would be ignored in this analysis.)

To give you a sense of what type of players TRY likes, here are the top 10 leaders (in order) in True Receiving Yards accumulated during their first five seasons among players drafted between 1990 and 2009:

Randy Moss
Torry Holt
Marvin Harrison
Larry Fitzgerald
Chad Johnson
Calvin Johnson
Keyshawn Johnson
Anquan Boldin
Herman Moore
Andre Johnson

First, I ran a regression using Draft Pick Value as my sole input and True Receiving Yards as my output. The best-fit formula was:

TRY through five years = 348 + 131.3 * Draft Pick Value

That doesn’t mean much in the abstract, so let’s use an example. Keyshawn Johnson was the first pick in the draft, which gives him a draft value of 34.6. This formula projected Johnson to have 4,890 TRY through five years. In reality, he had 4,838. The R^2 in the regression was 0.60, which is pretty strong: It means draft pick is pretty strongly tied to wide receiver production, a sign that the market is pretty efficient.

Then I re-ran the formula using draft pick value *and* height as my inputs. As it turns out, the height variable was completely meaningless. The R^2 remained at 0.60, and the coefficient on the height variable was not close to significant (p=0.53) despite a large sample of 543 players.

In other words, NFL GMs were properly valuing height in the draft during this period.

In case you’re curious, the 15 biggest “overachievers” as far as TRY relative to draft position were, in order: Marques Colston, Santana Moss, Brandon Marshall, Darrell Jackson, Terrell Owens, Anquan Boldin, Antonio Freeman, Chad Johnson, Coles, Mike Wallace, Greg Jennings, Chris Chambers, Marvin Harrison, Hines Ward, and Steve Johnson.

In this sample, about 50% of the players were taller than 6-0, and only about 30% of the receivers were 5-11 or shorter. We shouldn’t necessarily expect to see a bunch of short overachievers, but I’m convinced that height was properly valued by NFL teams in the draft at least over this 20-year period. There may be fewer star receivers who are short, but that’s only because there are fewer star receiver prospects who are short. Once an NFL team puts a high grade on a short prospect, that’s pretty much all we need to know.

Of the 33 players drafted in the top 15, just one-third of them were six feet or shorter. As a group, there were a couple of big overachievers (Torry Holt, Lee Evans), some other players who did very well (Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn, and Donte Stallworth), and a few big busts (Desmond Howard, Ted Ginn, Troy Edwards, and Peter Warrick). Ike Hilliard and Mike Pritchard round out the group. But I see nothing to indicate that short receivers who are highly drafted do any worse than tall receivers who are highly drafted. It’s just that usually, the taller receiver is drafted earlier.

Waldman: Why the Exceptional is Valuable

When a team finds a good player with exceptional qualities--like the too short/too slow UDFA Rod Smith--it has ancillary benefits for the organization. Photo by Jeffery Beall. — When a team finds a good player with exceptional qualities–like the too short/too slow UDFA Rod Smith–it has ancillary benefits for the organization. Photo by Jeffery Beall.

Chase’s analysis echoes what I have heard from those with NFL analytics backgrounds: There are too many variables to consider with raw stats to indicate that big receivers are inherently better than small receivers and there are viable archetypes of the effective small receiver.

What concerns me about the attempts to pigeonhole player evaluation into narrower physical parameters is that if taken too far one might as well replace the word “talent” in the phrase “talent evaluation” and use “athletic” or “physical” in its place. I may be wrong, but I get the sense that some of these Stats Ministers–intentionally or otherwise–dislike the exceptional when it comes to human nature. They’re seeking a way to make scouting a plain of square holes where the square pegs fit neatly into each place.

The problem with this philosophy is that once a concept, strategy, or view becomes the “right way” it evolves into the standard convention. Once it becomes conventional, it’s considered “safe.” However this is not true in the arena of competition. If you’re seeking the conventional, you’ve limited the possibilities of finding and creating environments for the exceptional to grow.

Many players who didn’t match the ideal size for their positions and had success were difference makers on winning teams–often Super Bowl Champions. I’d argue that exceptions to the rule that succeed are often drivers of excellence:

Russell Wilson didn’t meet the faulty “data backed” physical prototypes for quarterback and picking this exception to the rule in the third round earned them exceptional savings to acquire or keep other players for a Super Bowl run.
Rod Smith was too short, too slow, a rookie at 25, and not even drafted. But like a lot of his peers I mentioned above, his production was a huge factor for his team becoming a contender. The fact he was the exception to the rule freed Denver to acquire other pieces to the puzzle.
Joe Montana was too small, threw a wobbly ball, and was a third-round pick who was more of a point guard than full-fledged pocket passer, but he was just the type of player Bill Walsh was seeking in an offense that changed the entire course of the game. But at the time, the west coast offense was the exception to the rule that turned the league upside down.
Buddy Ryan the Bears drafted a bunch of defenders that didn’t meet physical prototypes for traditional roles in a 4-3, but the 46 defense took Chicago to Super Bowl dominance.
Drew Brees, Darren Sproles, and Marques Colston were exceptions to the rule. The Saints offense has been the driver for this team’s playoff and Super Bowl appearances.

I could name more, but the point isn’t to list every player. Why should I? Players who become top starters in the NFL are by very definition the exception to the rule. The only thing height gives a wide receiver is potential position on a target due to wing span, but it doesn’t help hand-eye coordination, body position, route running, comfort with physical contact, and understanding of a defense.

There are also smaller players with good arm length, leaping ability, quickness, and strength to earn similar, if not better position on a target. Even when the smaller receivers lack the same caliber of physical measurements as the bigger players, if they possess all of the other traits of a good receiver that these big athletes lack then size doesn’t matter.

There are legitimate archetypes for smaller, quick receivers with change of direction. However, there are social biases with these correlations that filter out players from the earliest stages of the game. These biases include the idea that the vast majority of these types of players are in the highest levels of football so anything different should be discouraged at the high school and college level–think white wide receivers, running backs, and cornerbacks as examples.

Players who succeed in defying these social biases and also possess the skill and persistence to overcome them. I’ve shown this video before, but physicist Neil deGrasse Tyson makes a strong point against “data backed” arguments of this nature when he answered a question posed about the small number of female and black scientists in the world. Harvard President Lawrence Summers hazarded a guess that it was genetics. Tyson’s answer is a great example why correlation isn’t causation.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/KEeBPSvcNZQ?start=3689]

The greatest irony about this specific crowd of data zealots is that they are often the first to complain about coaching tendencies that have same biases.

Maybe rookie receivers with the dimensions of Paul Richardson–or for that matter Jeremy Gallon or Odell Beckham–don’t become productive fantasy options or football players as often as bigger players based on correlating data. However, pointing to past history and scoffing at the wisdom of making an investment is like stating that it was a fact in the 15th century that dragons lie at the edge of the flat world we live in.

If you’re going to avoid investing in a player–or encourage others to do so–use good reasoning. Looking at the data is helpful, but the NFL isn’t a perfect data set. There are some data analysts writing about football that derive ideas reliant on a lot of highly fit equations that don’t work in a real world situation. However, they expect perfection and it’s not going to happen. They also behave as if data only tells the truth–and when that data lacks a fit, context, or proper application, it’s a little scary.

I want to see analytics succeed in the NFL, but like film study it’s not the answer. These two areas–when executed well–can contribute to the answer. However, the NFL–beyond some individual cases–hasn’t made significant advances in either area.

I suppose when you have a monopoly in the marketplace combined with a socialistic system for spreading the wealth owners don’t have significant motivation to become innovative with player evaluation. If they did, they’d be spending more money on making these processes rather than cycling through coaches and GMs every 3-5 years.

In case you’re new to the RSP blog, Chase Stuart runs the excellent blog Football Perspective. He also writes for Footballguys and Football Outsiders. I recommend you check out more of his work.

Boiler Room: Nebraska WR Quincy Enunwa

April 8, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Wide Receiver

Enunwa inspires reflection about innocence and experience. Photo by Craig Chandler.

Ever think about how you’ve changed over the years? What did the “old you” think, say, and do versus the “new you?” This is something I think about all the time when I’m studying football players.

I remember the first time I saw Terrell Owens as a rookie. He wasn’t the rocked-up, raging force of productivity and insecurity that he became, but the quickness, balance, and power was all there. He caught a hitch in the left flat, gave a little shake to avoid the corner, spun off a linebacker’s hit, stiff-armed a safety, and carried two more defenders for the first down.

It only took one play and I was sold.

That was the old me–a fan, not a football writer. I’d see something spine-tingling from a player and I’d allow that feeling to wash over me and permeate my entire take. Now, I’m more circumspect about what immediately impresses me.

However, it’s not always a good thing. We allow our experiences to filter out too much of what’s wondrous and joyful about the world. Sometimes those inexperienced takes get to the core truth in ways that more experienced viewpoints can over analyze and discard. There’s something to maintaining (or maybe the more accurate word is “re-cultivating”) a certain amount of innocence to your internal viewfinder.

Nebraska wide receiver Quincy Enunwa inspires this kind of reflection on my end. When I first watched the Cornhusker wideout tear through a secondary with the ball in his hands, I saw flashes of Terrell Owens. Then I saw Enunwa catch–and drop–the ball with hands techniques that need enough work to have concerns about his game and the ambivalence returns.

Although my RSP ranking of Enunwa reflects more of my ambivalence about his NFL potential, this Boiler Room post encapsulates the receiver’s upside with a 35-yard gain through the Purdue Boilermakers’ defense in 2013.

When I witness moments like these, I imagine if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director would I include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights? The Boiler Room Series is focused on prospects that I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

With the depth of this wide receiver class, Enunwa is a player I expect to go after the fourth round. However, I know there are fans of his potential and today I’m going to show you a play that you won’t find on a highlight reel on the Internet.

He gained 35 on a 3rd and 5 pass with 2:37 in the half from a 2×2 receiver 10 personnel shotgun set. He was the outside right receiver running a stop route, but he spotted the opening behind the shallow defender and drifted the inside. Enunwa caught the ball over his back shoulder with his hands close to his body just outside the right hash. Good adjustment and catch with his hands. The rest is pure viewing candy (click the enlarge arrow at the bottom right of the video to see this at full size).

[wpvideo rmpFk61f]

Enunwa packs enough athleticism and skill as a ball carrier on a run across the width of the field to evoke memories of a young Terrell Owens or Dez Bryant: burst, jukes, a hurdle, a spin, power, balance, and a couple of stiff arms. It’s a play you don’t easily forget.

If anything, it’s a play that is very difficult to balance with Enunwa’s flaws:

Enunwa doesn’t catch the ball with his fingertips. But man, you saw him tear through Purdue, right?

Enunwa isn’t sharp enough with his turns. Dude, just get him the ball and he’ll wreak havoc just like that catch over the middle at Purdue

Enunwa has difficulty tracking short passes. Screw the verticals, just feed him the ball with a running start in the shallow zone and he’s money!

The innocent football fan in me says Enunwa will be a good NFL starter. The experienced football writer says Enunwa might be a good NFL starter if he improves his overall game, but it’s far from a guarantee. The older–and maybe wiser–analyst says Enunwa can help a team immediately as part of a starting rotation, but if he’s going to reach his potential as player difficult to stop on every down he has a lot of work ahead.

But Matt, did you see Enunwa . . .

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: Wake Forest WR Michael Campanaro

March 26, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

A lesson from 45 percent of the Wake Forest passing game.

A Lesson In Zone Routes

By Matt Waldman

The depth of the wide receiver class is one of the headlines of the 2014 NFL Draft. The subtext of this storyline that deserves more attention is how the volume of talent at the position generates massive variation of player grades from team to team across the league.

According to a scout that has worked for a few teams during his career, variation at the position is common. And the contributing factors go beyond the fundamental differences with how individuals within these organizations see talent.

Fit within the offensive scheme is the most obvious differentiating factor. One organization may use a slot receiver as primary weapon—an extension of the running game, a movable mismatch, or an every-down zone beater. Another team has specific defensive schemes where it needs a slot receiver on the field. Then there’s the offense that uses a tight end or running back in that role.

In light of these differences, a talented 5’9”, 192-pound prospect will have a second round grade for the first team; a fourth round grade for the second; and the final team considers the player an undrafted free agent. Expect a lot of hand wringing and fist shaking from fans and writers on draft day when receivers they value are passed over for receivers they don’t.

A receiver I suspect has a wide range of draft grades this year is Wake Forest’s Michael Campanaro. In eight games last year, the Demon Deacons’ receiver accounted for 41 percent of the passing game’s completions, 46 percent of its passing yards, and 55 percent of its touchdowns. His combine performance was as impressive as any receiver . . . Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

No-Huddle Series: WR/KR Bruce Ellington

February 25, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

"+4 Wand of Instant Inferno" or as I call it, "Bruce Ellington Abstract" Photo by Dvanzuijlekom. — “+4 Wand of Instant Inferno” or as I call it, “Bruce Ellington Abstract” Photo by Dvanzuijlekom.

Bruce Ellington is like a Swiss Army knife equipped with a butane lighter that doubles as a jet pack.

A couple weeks ago, I was a guest on Elise Woodward’s show on 950 KJR Seattle talking Seattle wide receivers and the NFL Draft. Woodward asked me which receivers I think the Seahawks might take in the first couple of rounds if the team parts ways with either Sidney Rice or Golden Tate. She also asked me to consider my answer with the knowledge that Seattle has a penchant for surprising the general public with “reaching” for players they like earlier than the dictates of conventional wisdom.

By the way, the true definition of conventional wisdom is a gathering spot for lots of folks who are about to look foolish.

My projected picks for Seattle in this hypothetical on-air game were Martavis Bryant as the replacement for Rice and Bruce Ellington as the replacement for Tate. Woodward, who is one of my favorite sports radio hosts around, immediately sparred with me on that choice – and rightfully so.

“But he’s FIVE-NINE . . . FIVE-NINE!!! The Seahawks already have smaller guys like Baldwin . . . ”

Fast forward to today. What the public knows now is that Ellington runs a 4.3-40. He’s as fast as any of the top receiving prospects in this class.

What I don’t think a lot of the public knows is that the 5’9″, 196-pound Ellington is the type of prospect I’m drooling over. If I were building an offense and wanted a scheme that would allow my quarterback to look over the defense and then shift 2-3 players to alter the alignment and change the match-up advantage against the opposition (think Patriots with Rob Gronkowski, Shane Vereen, and – in theory – Aaron Hernandez), Ellington would be one of my targets.

The two-sport star from South Carolina is one of the more impressive open-field ball carriers at his position and the excellent often appears on the smallest gains. Moreover, Ellington is an intermediate and deep threat, who I believe will make the transition to a more physical bump-and-run NFL game.

The reason is his basketball skill. Conventional wisdom – there they go again in that meeting space dreaming up stupidity dressed in a logical suit – always worries that former basketball players-turned football players aren’t used to the physical play of the gridiron.

As blockers, I agree. However, basketball players are facing tight, physical coverage catching passes and driving lanes. Earning separation against tight man or zone defense is a fundamental part of basketball.

Tony Gonzalez, Jimmy Graham, and Antonio Gates are great examples of basketball players who have been among the best tight-coverage receivers at the position and changed the game. Terrell Owens and Randy Moss were pretty good basketball players. Both were excellent in tight coverage.

Don’t just think of Bruce Ellington playing football when watching these highlights below, imagine him driving a lane or working free of a defender in tight coverage on the court to receiving a pass. The fact Ellington has the raw athleticism (speed, quickness, and strength) and conceptual athleticism (when and how to move) is a product of playing both games at a high level.

Scraping Blocks and Setting Up Creases

The play below is a 2nd and 4 with 1:23 in the first quarter from a 1×3 receiver 10 personnel shotgun. Ellington is the middle trips man with the ball the right hash at the 33 versus a 3-3-5 defensive look. The play will be a bubble screen to the left flat where Ellington will catch the ball three yards behind the line of scrimmage.

The NFL has adopted this play enough that Ellington should have an immediate opportunity to earn a small set of plays in an offense with the potential for a big impact. Think Andrew Hawkins for the Bengals before he got hurt.

Ellington makes the catch, tucks the ball under his left arm and works to the inside shoulder of his teammate in the slot before sliding behind the back of he defender to press and cut through that hole his two receiver teammates open. I call this tight work behind the back of a blocker “scraping a block.”

It’s not a technical term from football, but the act of working in close proximity of blocks without colliding with blockers is a useful way to use a lack of height and loads of quickness to one’s advantage as a ball carrier.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=110&w=560&h=315]

Ellington reads the outside corner making his approach inside and slides to his outside receiver, setting up a cutback to the inside. This setup fakes out the defensive back working past the outside receiver. The result of these moves helps Ellington split the defense, get the first down, and reach the 20. He finishes after contact to gain a few more to the 17.

Physicality

Dexter McCluster is no Bruce Ellington. What I mean is that the average fan might think of a 5’9″ receiver and associate him with a player like McCluster, who is a fine football player capable of withstanding physical play, but not one who will be returning the favor on opponents.

Ellington is more along the spectrum of a faster Hines Ward. Not as physical, but he has enough physicality to block like a running back. This 1st-and-goal with 0:43 int he first quarter form a 12 personnel twin-left shotgun set at the three of Vanderbilt is a good example.

The slot receiver begins the alignment at the left hash with a defensive back five yards off. The Gamecocks send Ellington in motion across the right end offset the tight end. At the snap, Ellington works inside-out, delivering a strong punch to the defensive back to clear the lane for the quarterback sneak for the score.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=147&w=560&h=315]

Ellington may be short, but at 196-pounds he’s mighty and physical. Moreover, he does a fine job of setting up his position on the defensive back to make the play. Thank a basketball education on setting position.

I also like that Ellington can cut-block. It’s a craft that many receivers and backs fail at miserably. I watched Andre Williams attempt six cut blocks in a game against Florida State this year. He executed one with good technique and with the desired end result of knocking the defender off his feet.

The other five? Williams either didn’t use the proper technique to work across the defender’s frame, didn’t drive through the defender, or telegraphed his intentions. Ellington has no such problem on this screen pass where he opens the field for his teammate to earn the first down.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=286&w=560&h=315]

Layers Of Moves

Here’s another bubble screen from a 1×3 receiver, 10 personnel shotgun set with the ball at the left hash of the 30. Ellington is the middle trips man facing a nickel look. He catches the ball with his hands close to his body and turns up field from the 27 as his two blockers engage the slot defensive back and the cornerback.

Ellington displays another fine understanding of press-and-cutback technique by working inside the slot man before cutting outside. However, there’s another layer to this cutback that dazzles me and that’s how he combines the outside cut with an outside spin to work behind the cornerback and reach the 32.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=167&w=560&h=315]

It’s not a huge gain, but the movement in tight space is impressive. It’s a small hint of something exciting that many will ignore. However, I bet we’ll see a lot more of it in the NFL and it will earn him far more yards.

More Than Bubble Wrap

Bubble screens are like bubble wrap. They have a use and they’re fun to play with, but it wears thin fast. Ellington’s game is far more than the bubble screen.

Here is a 10 personnel shotgun set with receivers 2×2 on 3rd and 8 with 11:48 in the half from the South Carolina 33 and facing a 3-3-5 look with two safeties deep. Ellington is the slot right receiver at the right hash with a defender playing four yards off Ellington and inside the hash.

The receiver works past the defensive back with an outside release, catches the fade a step past the defender as the ball arrives over his inside shoulder a the Vandy 39 and turns up the right sideline of the 35. Ellington does an especially good job of using his inside arm to frame separation after he earned separation from the defender.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=176&w=560&h=315]

Ellington runs through a wrap to his arm by raising his inside arm to ward off the contact at the 33 and stays in-bounds another 4 yards. The result is a 28-yard catch and 38 yards total on the play. Although there’s a small juggle of the ball after making a catch close to his chest, this is not indicative of Ellington’s game.

Money Catch

Making a catch into the teeth of the defense with a hit on the way is what I call the Money Catch. It’s why Anquan Boldin is about to make more money at an advanced age for a wide receiver.

Here’s a 3rd and 7 with 10:13 in the half from a 1×2 receiver, 20 personnel shotgun set. Ellington is at the left hash at the slot man facing a nickel back that is playing four yards deep and shaded outside. The ball is at the right hash of the Vandy 31.

Ellington runs a post route between the defensive backs in the red zone, making the catch over his inside shoulder, and taking a hit in the process.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=204&w=560&h=315]

Money.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Ki-G4vWMK9o]

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – available to pre-order now. The 2014 RSP will available for download April 1. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: A Trio of Sleepers

February 19, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback, Running Back, Wide Receiver

WR Paul Richardson, RB Tim Flanders, and QB Dustin Vaughan are intriguing players without the big-top pedigree.

Futures: A Trio of Sleepers

by Matt Waldman

According to most fantasy football writers, the term “Sleeper” is dead, buried, and the wake held in its honor featured a stuffed mushroom dish with creamed spinach and Italian breadcrumbs soaked in butter. Considering that many football writers at the wake sported IV drips topped with Crisco, finger food is always underrated.

Sleepers are still alive in the lexicon of “reality football.” Not that this term is somehow more legit than fantasy football.

Why would it be? Reality football has deteriorated into a wild and wooly sub-genre of Reality TV.

Pick a channel or website and there are weekly installments of the NFL’s Dr. Phil and Dr. Laura, only most of them hide in anonymity when dishing their gossip dressed as pop-psychology. Call me when these 20-something prospects finish adolescence.

On another, there’s the salacious he-said-he-said drama between two former Dolphins. Each episode is so popular that Jerry Springer is taking a pounding in the daytime ratings. Those rubber sheets from the investigative report to Commissioner Goodell might come in handy after all.

Reality Football is a five-ring circus of top prospects, current players, media, former players-turned-media, and Twitter all competing for attention. There’s no room for players under the big top who lack the Q Score of the headlining acts.

With the possible exception of Dallas, the actual game of football isn’t played under a circus tent. Once upon a time, even the Cowboys caught some teams sleeping on developmental players like Tony Romo and Miles Austin.

Joique Bell, Marlon Brown, Alfred Morris, Kenbrell Thompkins, and Brian Hoyer are also testaments to the fact that sleepers are alive and well in the NFL. Here are three of mine for the 2014 NFL Draft. Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

Picking on Jarvis Landry

February 13, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

I promise, I really do like a lot about Landry’s game, but when a player provides good teaching opportunities, you take it.

I’ve already heard from some LSU fans who feel it was unfair to criticize Landry’s effort in an area where I stated most college receivers aren’t playing at top intensity (run blocking). Forget that I qualified the criticism with the point that Landry is a good prospect. They only see the sore spot.

I will note that Landry’s brother Gerald was a gentleman about it.

Understandable sensitivity from Landry’s big brother. He wants to see his little brother achieve his dream to the greatest extent possible. As I told Gerald, there’s no one in the NFL reading little old me. And if they are, they see quality NFL players – even stars – who have lapses with details that have a collective impact on the outcome of a game.

Sorry LSU fans, I’m not leaving Landry alone. Think of me as the coach who picks on the player because he likes him.

For those of you who need to see something positive about one of your own. Just keep watching this on a loop.

or this . . .

[youtube=http://youtu.be/6HOj7Z58c4o]

Personally, I like the second one better. I’m like the Russian judges in ice skating from the old days (might still be the same, I don’t know, I have no time for the Olympic$), I prefer the routines with a higher degree of difficulty.

With the animated shorts entertaining those in need of positive reinforcement (pacification), let’s look at something that even a super athlete like Landry has room to improve upon. That, my friends, is route running – specifically, the stem.

For those of you not familiar with the stem or “stemming a route”, Tim Gardner gives a brief overview. The main objective of the stem is to force the defender playing single coverage to turn his hips in the opposite direction of the break.

There are several effective ways to perform a good stem. It depends on the route and the position of the opponent. This 1st-and-10 route by Landry at the top of the third quarter against Auburn is an interception that, at first glance, looks like an under-thrown pass.

And it is an under-thrown ball. Zach Mettenberger is delivering the ball from a constricted pocket and cannot get the ball to the location of the flat where Landry makes his break. The lower half of Mettenberger’s frame doesn’t have any follow through during the release. See below (there’s also a good replay following the queued video segment).

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1GECUhSgiU&start=103&w=560&h=315]

However, there’s more to this play than a short throw. Landry could have done more to ensure that he makes this catch regardless of Mettenberger’s ability to deliver a ball with greater depth on this break and it all has to do with his stem.

Landry is the slot right receiver with the corner playing nine yards off at the hash and directly over the receiver. The route Landry is running is essentially an out to the right flat where he works back to the ball, but the corner undercuts the play from trail position.

The reason the corner is in position to make this play has more to do with Landry’s route than Mettenberger’s throw. Landry begins the route with the cornerback playing an inside shade (see below).

The corner is already in position to anticipate an outside-breaking route. His hips are angled to anticipate his outside break and he’s playing off Landry to the point that he can be patient with the route while keeping an eye on the quarterback.

Landry understands that to beat a cornerback in this position, he’ll need to get the defender to turn his hips to the inside. However, the receiver lacks the patience to do it.

At the top of his stem, Landry executes a jab-step to the inside and then breaks outside. The problem is that Landry’s stem is five yards too short for this route.

The reason we know this stem is too short is where Landry finishes his break (black line). The receiver makes a jab-step inside and then drifts outside to cross the first-down marker before bending his break towards the quarterback. Landry’s route is a long, looping, inefficient path that tips off the cornerback.

One of the best ways to test the patience of a patient cornerback is what you might call “playing chicken.” In other words, the receiver maintains a straight path as if he’s going to run up the corner’s hind parts.

Force the corner to turn or get close enough that when the jab-step is made inside, the corner has no choice but react. That’s selling a route.

The benefit of this longer stem is that the route has more natural depth without tipping off the break and the quarterback doesn’t have to wait a tick longer to throw the ball with greater width-depth. Note the lack of a defined angle in Landry’s break and how he drifts to reach depth.

The cornerback’s hips are already in position to break under Landry. Meanwhile, the receiver is just beginning to round his hips into position to come back to the ball. The hip position tells a lot of this story.

Although Mettenberger hangs the throw, a better route prevents this type of target in the first place. The entire pitch-catch process lacks precision on this play, but the root of the imprecision is on Landry.

Athleticism is pretty. It’s also necessary. But it doesn’t achieve consistency without fundamental technique.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2014 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: Brandin Cooks vs. Ifo Ekpre-Olumu

February 5, 2014 0 Comments read Players, Wide Receiver

Oregon State's No.7 is the headliner, but the best football player on the field was arguably No.14. Photo by ACase — Oregon State’s No.7 is the headliner, but the best football player on the field was arguably No.14. Photo by ACase

The Oregon State receiver may be a headliner, but Cooks was upstaged in this game in resounding fashion by a fellow junior with a higher draft stock that has chosen to stay in school.

Futures: WR Brandin Cooks vs. Ifo Ekpre-Olumu

On most Saturdays where he treads his feet, Oregon State junior Brandin Cooks is the most dangerous athlete on any college football field. The 2013 Biletnikoff Award winner has earned comparisons to a slightly bigger, slightly slower Tavon Austin with flashes of playmaking that have some comparing Cooks to Steve Smith.

I recognize that Cooks is a marquee name who possesses the big-play potential and the athleticism to develop into a mainstay with an NFL offense. Yet that’s not as much of a foregone conclusion as many want to think.

Cooks may be a headliner, but there was a game this year where Cooks was upstaged in such resounding fashion that the receiver looked like a pedestrian player by comparison. The player who stole the spotlight from Cooks was Oregon cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu.

Like Cooks, Ekpre-Olomu is a junior. The Oregon cornerback is also considered one of the top prospects at his position.

Unlike Cooks, the second team All-American corner is returning to school for his senior year to get his degree.

I like to watch players get tested in ways where the right answers are not the numbers in the box score, but the techniques, concepts, and athleticism that show up regardless of the data. One of the most compelling dramas on the field is a wide receiver-cornerback matchup.

Earlier this year, I watched Ohio State cornerback Bradley Roby and couldn’t take my eyes off Wisconsin Jared Abbrederis, who won their September matchup. It was a similar dynamic with Cooks and Ekpre-Olomu, except this time it was the cornerback’s performance that was far more compelling.

This matchup with Ekpre-Olomu is a good indicator of the challenges Cooks will need to overcome for his game to translate to the NFL. Unless Ekpre-Olomu is a special player with a future as one of the top shutdown corners in the NFL, the Oregon corner offers a challenge that will be the norm for a player like Cooks when he sets foot on Sunday grass.

Ekpre-Olomu exposed flaws with Cooks’ route skills, tested Cooks’ strength in space, and revealed the limits of Cooks’ speed. Cooks’ best moments came against the Oregon’s other corner Terrance Mitchell. The Ducks’ other junior corner is one of the top defenders in his conference, but not in the same league as Olomu. Even those plays Cooks had against Mitchell weren’t all that impressive.

In contrast, it often appeared that Ekpre-Olomu was baiting Cooks when matched in single coverage. Ekpre-Olomu had the confidence that he could match the receiver’s athleticism and stay a step ahead of Cooks.

Ekpre-Olomu was one of the most impressive defenders I’ve seen in college football this year. Today you’re going to see how he made Cooks look ordinary.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Six Plays That Make Me A Fan Of WR Odell Beckham’s Game

February 4, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

Odell Beckham's versatility isn't just about his special teams play. Photo by Crawford Orthodontics. — Odell Beckham’s versatility isn’t just about his special teams play. Photo by Crawford Orthodontics.

Some schools are known for producing good athletes whose games don’t translate to the NFL. LSU’s Beckham doesn’t fit that pattern.

Craig “Buster” Davis. Devery Henderson. Early Doucet. Brandon LaFell. Terrence Tolliver. These five receivers were good college players at LSU who failed to develop into productive starters that an NFL team feels it’s “set” at that spot in its lineup. Dwayne Bowe (and it was shaky for a bit) and Rueben Randle are the two exceptions in recent years.

Despite the fact that LSU has a history of recruiting great athletes whose physical skills tempt scouts and NFL personnel directors into selecting them only to earn a lower return on investment than they hoped, it’s never a good idea to write off a program or a group of players based on this recent trend. Every player is different – even if the trend seems to be strong.

It’s important to examine each player as an individual and not let past players from that program influence the decision-making process. Otherwise, evaluators can fall into the trap of following the back end of trends, which is a lot like following the back-end of a horse.

LSU’s starting receivers are two prospects that I like this year – especially Odell Beckham. The 6’0″, 187-pound junior may lack the prototypical height and weight of an NFL primary receiver, but he plays big and he’s versatile. Here are six plays that do a good job highlighting Beckham’s game at this stage of his career.

No.1 – Beckham Is A Football Player First, Receiver Second.

If I was a head coach, personnel director, general manager, or owner of a team, one of the first qualities I would demand of my players is a comfort level with physical play. Julius Thomas is a physical freak at eight end, but his reputation – fair or not – is that he doesn’t respond well to physical play. On the other hand, Hines Ward was a Timex.

I haven’t seen Beckham make or take any Ward-like hits, but a running theme throughout his game is the willingness to engage in the physical side of the game. Here’s the first play of the LSU-TCU game. Beckham is at the top of the formation between the left hash and left flat with the cornerback playing a yard off on this run play to the receiver’s side.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_M52KgXSJ8&start=01&w=560&h=315]

The fact that LSU is comfortable running to Beckham’s side in a 21 personnel 1×1 receivers set is a testament to Beckham as a run blocker. Beckham delivers an excellent punch with good hand placement. He integrates his hand use and leg drive to shove his opponent off the line of scrimmage.

It’s not a perfect block – Beckham over-extends his form during the block and allows the cornerback to turn outside and get up field. The receiver manages to counter with a shove that prevents the defensive back from reaching the runner.

If a player is going to make an error in the run game, I’d rather him be too eager to get physical than not eager enough. Beckham fits the bill.

No.2 – Beckham’s Game Has Layers

A kick or punt return can tell an evaluator a lot about a player’s style as a ball carrier. This return against TCU with 13:26 in the half tells me that Beckham’s running style is confident, intelligent, agile, explosive, and physical.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_M52KgXSJ8&start=155&w=560&h=315]

Beckham takes this kick seven yards deep in the end zone. The fact that there’s no hesitation about running this out is a positive. He’s confident in what he sees as well as his ability to execute.

I like that he sets up his first move by bending the run inside the right hash to the five to set up the wall of three blockers ahead. This is much like a running back pressing and cutting back. Beckham’s cut back is sharp enough to get outside the wall and force the unblocked defender coming up the sideline to take a bad angle.

Beckham then layers moves to get outside a defender coming over top at the 20. First, it’s a hop-step inside and followed with a break to the outside. These moves get Beckham to the 20 and then to the 25.

The receiver throws another combination of moves into the run, executing a stutter-step to set up a swat of the inside pursuit with this left arm that takes the defender to the ground. Like the block, Beckham is the player attacking and not being attacked. He finishes the play lowering his pads into a defender and continues forward another three yards.

Beckham’s ability to layer confidence, savvy, agility, and physicality into his game makes him the type of player I can use all over the field: the end-around, screens, special teams, and traditional timing routes.

No.3 – Patience and Explosion

This is a simple-looking post route that Beckham catches for a 42-yard gain against TCU on 1st and 10 with 0:16 in the first quarter as the outside twin man on a strong side twin I formation set. Both receivers are running posts on this play.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_M52KgXSJ8&start=125&w=560&h=315]

What I like about his play is Beckham’s patience. Watch the replay and you’ll see that he runs a long stem and continues his trajectory towards the cornerback. There’s no real set-up with movement to try to get the defender to bite. Beckham knows this corner is patient and not biting because he’s playing six yards off with no safety help.

The receiver maintains his path that will eventually force the defender to give up the inside or collide with Beckham. Late in the stem, the defender blinks just enough for Beckham to break inside.

This straight path that Beckham takes a nice sign of good speed that he can run a true linear route and earn separation without a head fake, stutter or dip. If not for an under-thrown ball, Beckham had the separation to run under this pass for a touchdown.

Beckham has to wait on the ball, but he still manages to make the catch with his hands and maintain possession with the corner wrapped around his waist. Winning against tight coverage is also a recurring theme for Beckham – another sign that he’s comfortable with physical play.

No.4 – Attacking Early

The last play was a good example of Beckham displaying patience as a route runner. This play illustrates that Beckham can win early and do so with an integration of physicality and agility. This is a 1st and 10 with 8:39 in the half from a 21-personnel, 1×1 receiver I-formation set at the 45 of LSU. The TCU cornerback is a yard of the line of scrimmage. Beckham is a yard behind the line in the left flat between the hash and the numbers.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_M52KgXSJ8&start=178&w=560&h=315]

When a receiver lines up 3-4 yards behind the line of scrimmage on a consistent basis, it’s a good indication that the offense is trying to prevent that player from getting pressed because they don’t have confidence in his skills to win early. Beckham is just a yard off the line and he uses that space to dictate the action.

He executes a strong stutter-step and pairs it with his outside arm to rip past the corner back, earning two yards of separation on the man within the first five yards of the release from the line of scrimmage. That’s a lot of space for a receiver to earn this early in a route. Austin Collie was fantastic at doing this at BYU and before his rash of injuries with the Colts.

I bet Beckham will display similar initial quickness and more top-end speed. On this play, the receiver is wide open but quarterback Zach Mettenberger once again under-throws the target.

The pass is a 49-yard throw from pitch to catch, but needed to be 50-52 yards in length for Beckham to run under it with his back to the defender. Instead, Beckham has to wait on the ball, the corner back recovers, and Beckham loses concentration, trying to turn up field before he has fully secured the target.

The ball bounces off Beckham’s hands, and the corner arrives just in time to pry the receiver’s arms away from any second-effort attempt. The end result is a negative, but I’ve seen enough plays where Beckham makes these types of catches – including more difficult ones – that it doesn’t outstrip the positive of this wide receiver’s skill to earn separation early in a route.

A play like this tells me that Beckham can help a team in a short timing game with heavy west coast principles or a vertical game that relies on a lot of play action. His versatility as a receiver is just as important as his versatility as a football player.

No.5 – Playing Big

Earlier this year, I profiled Jordy Nelson’s ability to frame separation with a defensive back. Beckham flashes similar technique on this 2nd-and-11 pass with 2:36 in the half from a 1×1 receiver, 21 personnel I-formation set as the single receiver on the left side. Once again he’s a yard behind the line of scrimmage with the cornerback playing three yards off with outside shade.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_M52KgXSJ8&start=240&w=560&h=315]

At the top of his stem, Beckham takes a hard step into the body of the defender, frames separation with his hands, and then makes a quick break outside. I love how he comes back to the ball, attacking the target with a leaping catch at the sideline while the defender wraps him.

The hand strength to maintain possession on this play is impressive as is keeping both feet in bounds. This is an example why the dropped-post pattern is a “concentration drop.” Too many of these, and it’s a problematic thing for a receiver’s evaluation. However, in the context of what else I’ve seen – like this play – it’s not a concern.

No.6 – Varying The Storyline

In this game alone Beckham has attacked early, remained patient and kept it simple, and attacked late. This route is an example of Beckham using yet another press technique on a route further highlights his athleticism and concentration: the fade-stop.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_M52KgXSJ8&start=490&w=560&h=315]

Beckham is the single receiver at the numbers of the left side of the field facing a cornerback playing four yards off with inside shade and a safety 10 yards deep and just inside the left hash. I like the swim move to break outside and get an early step on the cornerback, baiting the defender to consider a deeper route before breaking back to the ball.

Beckham once again makes the reception after sustaining some contact from the defender. Like Greg Jennings, Isaac Bruce, or Tim Brown, Beckham is an average-size receiver who possesses the athleticism, toughness, technique, and savvy to play bigger than his measurements.

It’s why he’s a favorite of mine in this draft class even if his alumni haven’t shined as brightly in the NFL as some anticipated.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reese’s Senior Bowl Offensive Practices Day 3

January 22, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback, Running Back, Tight End, Wide Receiver

It may look like Dan McCullors in a Sr. Bowl uniform, but it is his twin brother Reese. Photo by Thomas Vanderwal. — It may look like Dan McCullers in a Sr. Bowl uniform, but it is his twin brother Reese. Photo by Thomas Vanderwal.

Players Who Grew On Me

Oregon’s Josh Huff leads this list of players who I like more as I leave Mobile than I did upon my arrival. The receiver demonstrated that he could catch the ball with his hands on a consistent basis. While he doesn’t make receptions at the level of difficulty we see from the top receivers in the NFL, he caught a few passes where he had to lay out for the ball and made a few tough plays down field against tight coverage in the end zone. I’ll be reviewing my game research and watching more of Huff in the coming weeks.

I am not among the draft analysts bullish on Antonio Andrews. However, the Western Kentucky running back demonstrated some sweet movement as a route runner and some maturity as an interior runner. I still don’t see Andrews as a future starter, but I’ll be taking another look because he’s a bigger, stronger back than I thought at a surprising 225 pounds and he did some things at practice a little better than I anticipated from him as a decision-maker.

Northwestern’s Kain Colter made an excellent catch up the flat on a go route that handily beat Pierre Desir in practice today. The throw led Colter a little far, requiring a diving extension with his back to the quarterback. This was one of the types of targets I wanted to see from the QB-WR conversion project and Colter came strong. His breaks still need a lot of work, but he’s held his own this week and I’m more optimistic about his potential than I was when I arrived.

Shaq Evans also had an excellent catch in the corner of the end zone in tight coverage on an under-thrown ball this morning. The acrobatic effort cost Evans some practice time because he landed funny on his leg and walked to the sideline with a slight limp and trying to jog off the injury before realizing it wasn’t going away.

Evans has dropped the ball multiple times this week, but they were often situations one could explain away with logic that could exonerate him, including poor communication from the quarterback with regards to the placement and timing of the throw and difficult adjustments required in tight coverage. I believe his hands are better than the final outcome of these targets revealed, but there will be analysts who think otherwise. The UCLA receiver will be a mid-to-late pick, but I think he has potential to grow into a starter one day.

Jerick McKinnon flashed some speed after a cutback that his tape hinted at, but did not truly fulfill. I’m still not sure this run during 11-on-11’s was a fair indication of his speed, but it was more than what I saw against Florida and Georgia. His performance was a positive step towards convincing a more cynical viewer like me that he could emerge as a more than a special teams player.

Players Who Lost a Little In My Eyes

Jordan Matthews’ skill at making the tough catch in the thick of the hit zone between the hashes is something that endears him to me. Truth be told, his difficulty separating from defenders in this practice on a daily basis is an issue. Matthews’ is big and strong enough to bait a corner into a poor angle and then use hands to knock the defender off-balance. He did this well for some big plays this week.

What Matthews couldn’t do was separate deep without initiating contact. There were multiple plays over the past few days where Matthews failed to earn separation within the first five yards and it prompted him to initiate contact a second time with the hope of knocking his opponent off-balance in the process. I didn’t see this as a good sign.

Moreover Matthews is not an efficient runner. I’m not talking about his ball-carrying skills. I’m reiterating something that my colleague Turron Davenport of Pro Football Central – a former college wide receiver – mentioned about Matthews working hard and less efficiently to get to his top speed.

I know that some of my data-head, analytic-thinking brethren have looked at Matthews’ height (and hopefully pay attention to the fact that he’s not as heavy as they assumed) and volume of production in the Vanderbilt offense and believe he’s a bargain compared to Sammy Watkins. I’m leaning harder to the point of view that in this year’s draft Watkins is the “you get what you pay for” option.

Matthews will cost less because he is a lesser physical talent with good, but not great skills. Fantasy owners might not notice the difference at the end of their rookie year, but when it comes to talent the numbers won’t make them right.

Arthur Lynch is a wily route runner. Watching the tight end set up linebackers and safeties in the short zone this week was a lot of fun. I only wish I had Adam Sandler’s remote from the movie “Click” to pause, rewind, and slow-mo the action. As an underneath option, I think Lynch can do good work, but his lack of explosion limits him more as a receiver than I believed when I arrived in Mobile.

Cody Hoffman’s difficulty winning against press coverage – especially today – was an eye-opener. The South team corners have grown more patient when facing Hoffman’s opening release moves and the receiver had difficulty moving them off their spots. The result was frequent collisions with defenders that disrupted Hoffman’s gate, balance, and timing.

There’s a good chance that Hoffman will trick a few defenders on the North squad during the game because they aren’t familiar with him. This is why the practices reveal more than the game. The sessions this week are indicative of how NFL teams will adjust over time and become familiar with a player’s style. The game is more like the first game or two where that familiarity isn’t game.

Unfortunately, you’ll see fans tout a player because of a good in-game performance when there’s often a lot more to it than the guy being a “gamer.” Hoffman might earn that “gamer” label, but the practices revealed a long-strider with a quick first step but not the guile or technical repertoire to win at a consistent rate. He’s capable of amazing catches, but the consistency is missing right now.

Inconclusive Evidence

Davenport told me that Wake Forest’s Michael Campanaro is coming off a collarbone injury. The receiver had good moments as an underneath option this week. However, I still don’t have a good feel for his skill to separate and make difficult plays against physical coverage.

Jimmy Garappolo is the hot item this week. I didn’t see enough to form an opinion. I wish I did, but what I witnessed was a quarterback with Derek Carr’s size, some true zip in the range of 10-20 yards, and a consistent predilection for placing the ball to the back shoulder or hip of receivers when the more optimal choice was leading them down field.

At first glance, there’s a lot of open space that Eastern Illinois’ offense generated for Garappolo. I’m looking forward to examining this quarterback’s game in greater detail.

Wyoming wide receiver Robert Herron’s practice performances were predictable in the sense that he experienced a slew of 2-3 dropped passes during a period of practice and then caught everything else, including some difficult targets. I didn’t see this type of behavior on tape, but I want to re-examine him nonetheless.

They Are Who I Thought They Were

Versatile, agile, and mature between the tackles, Charles Sims is a Senior Bowl darling. You’ve read enough about him on my blog, go here.

Jared Abbrederis may not be the size I thought he was, but he’s the same fine all-around receiver I saw at Wisconsin. He’s a player I’d love to have on an NFL team who can play a variety of roles as a returner and receiver.

Quarterbacks Stephen Morris and Logan Thomas offer eye-popping physical characteristics and flashes of promise, but lack the conceptual feel or the game and consistency to generate interest beyond a late-round pick (save a rogue team that falls in love with looks over the substance of their performances).

C.J. Fiedorowicz is a blocking tight end in training. Gator Hoskins is an H-back in training. And arguably the best potential all-around tight end was Crockett Gillmore from Colorado State – a late edition who, along with the likes of Alex Bayer, were more intriguing options than the original picks for this game. Bayer was not in attendance, but Gillmore made a beautiful over the head catch about 25 yards down field on a corner route and his blocking was physical and on-point today.

Jeff Janis continues to intrigue folks who see the big body with a reasonably quick gait, but ignore that he caught over 75 percent of his targets against his body and didn’t have more than a handful of receptions on targets of moderate difficulty.

I almost gave Ryan Grant consideration in my tier of players who raised their standing in my eyes. He had some slick releases and did a fine job of getting on top of defenders early on vertical routes. There were still several routes where he lost control of his footing trying to break harder than his balance would allow. I liked the effort, but as I mentioned during the preview, Grant has to demonstrate consistency. This was a step in the right direction.

For more Senior Bowl Info also check out:

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Sr. Bowl WR Technique Roundtable

January 22, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

Norris' first skill player for Joe Flacco is a youngish, Boldin-ish receiver in Michael Crabtree. Photo by Football Schedule. — Among the seven players I interviewed Monday night at the Reese’s Senior Bowl, five of them mentioned Michael Crabtree as one of their two favorite players – including a running back. The most common answer why? “He’s smooth.” Find out how the five WRs below are trying to make their games smooth. Photo by Football Schedule.

Five Senior Bowl wide receivers talked with Matt Waldman and provided helpful tips behind the techniques of playing their position.

RSP: Cody, tell us about your development transitioning from high school to college.

Cody Hoffman: In high school, we didn’t even have a receiver’s coach. When I got to BYU I worked on route running and the technique of getting in and out of routes. I have always tried to have an emphasis of working on press coverage. It’s nice to be able to work on it out here with a receivers coach and against some good DBs.

RSP: Kevin, what is your technique focus in Mobile this week?

Kevin Norwood: Getting off press a little better and getting my footwork right. The Jaguars receiver coach is teaching me something I can use to get open more and to beat pressure more, which is to stand on the balls of my feet, which helps me be quick on my feet.

Shaq Evans: Playing on the balls of your feet is how you keep your base. If you’re on your heels you’re going to slip and fall. You’re also not going to get out of cuts very well. It’s why they always want us out with our heads over our toes and on the balls of our feet. When you do those things you can make really accelerate out of your cuts.

RSP: A lot of receivers at this stage of their development entering the NFL possess 1-2 refined moves to beat press with either their feet or with their hands, but they lack the skill to integrate the hands and the feet together or demonstrate variety.

Shaq Evans: It’s something that progresses over the years. Like you said, at first I was just using my feet or just trying to win using my hands. But these last two years I felt like I’ve put them both together, especially this year.

Robert Herron: You also have to mix it up. Like coming off slow and then use a sudden move to keep them guessing. But you always want to attack them. You don’t just want to do a move at the same way at the same spot because they can just sit there and then you have to change direction into the man [and you’re back at the same point you started]. You want to attack him and make him feel uncomfortable [about what you’re going to do next].

Ryan Grant: You want to have a bag of tricks and I try to use one of at least three types of releases coming off the line. If he’s outside, then I’m going to try to give him something outside to think about and if he’s inside I’m going to do something inside and if he’s heads-up, I’m going to take a step at him to freeze him.

RSP: Is there something that you see from a defensive back that tells you what techniques you should be using when you line up against them on a given play?

Evans: Yeah, definitely. If the corner is a guy that [doesn’t play as aggressive] I like to take the line of scrimmage back to him and quick-set him. If the guy plays really physical then I want to do something really quick with my hands first before he gets his hands on me. That way I can get past his hips. Once you get past a defender’s hips and it’s hard for him to recover. Watching how a corner plays in press coverage is one of the main things I watch on film.

RSP: What are some things that you’re working on past the stage of the initial release?

Evans: Making sure that I’m always going vertical. When you get a DB’s hips to turn down field you have him because you can break in any direction or stop. Whenever you get to the top of your route you always want to have his hips turned towards the end zone. Once you get his hips turned towards the end zone your always have him beat.

RSP: Talk about the difference in mindset and action for a receiver when he’s facing zone coverage instead of man coverage.

Herron: It’s the timing and knowing where the other players are and against man, you only have to get open against one dude. With zone you have to know where the inside dude is and adjust your route off him. When you come out of your break you either have to see where he is or know where he’ll be. You might be running an out route against zone and settle into a spot after your break because the corner could be sitting where you’re headed.

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RSP: Would it be accurate to say that routes against man coverage is like telling a story to the defender that you want him to believe whereas versus zone you’re reacting to your opponents’ stories and trying to find what he’s hiding from you fast.

Herron: It is like that, but with both you still want to make them do what you want them to do. It’s just with zone you have to adjust to what they’re doing.

RSP: In man you dictate, in zone they dictate . . .

Herron: Yeah.

RSP: Is there anybody you faced during your career whose game you really respect?

Evans: D.J. Hayden from Houston who was the 12th pick overall with the Oakland Raiders last year is a really good corner who I faced my junior year. He was a tough player to go against, I’m not going to lie. He was very patient as well as strong and fast. You had to be more patient than him and get physical. He helped me raise my game because I realized that I had to become a more physical receiver.

RSP: Facing a patient corner is a difficult challenge for receivers because there’s an expectation of when a receiver thinks he’ll get his opponent to bite on a route. When that time doesn’t arrive . . .

Evans: It’s tough. When a corner is that patient and moves his feet well and uses his hands well you have to be able to knock him off his spot or use your hands to rip through.

Grant: If he’s patient you have to make him move his feet. You attack the foot that he doesn’t want to move and make him move it. If he’s head-up you probably want to make him move that inside foot. If he’s outside then you want to make him move that outside foot.

RSP: Let’s move on to making the catch. How important is it to attack the ball at the earliest window within your range to make contact with the ball?

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Grant: At first, I wasn’t that good at attacking the ball in the air when I came to Tulane. But my coaches told me that I had to be hungry for the ball and attack it. You want to catch the ball at its earliest and highest point that you can reach. You want to always be going up early, going up strong, and taking it away. If you do those things you’ll be fine.

Herron: It’s big! If I were to give anyone advice it’s that you have to snap your head and hands to the quarterback as soon as you get out of your route. It was something that I had to learn over the years. You want to almost see him throw the ball. If not, you want to see the ball just out of his hand or else it’s more difficult to find the ball in the air.

RSP: It sounds like something so simple to do, but when you have a helmet on and you’re trying to snap your head around it can have a discombobulating effect on your vision. Is there a hint or tip on doing this well?

Herron: You want to locate the “X” of the football (the point where the seams intersect) and watch it all the way until it lands in your hands. Because the ball is spinning you can’t always see the outside of the ball. In college there’s a strip on the ball, but there’s no stripe on the NFL ball.

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RSP: When it comes to catching the ball where on your hands do you want to make the reception?

Grant: On your fingertips. I don’t want the ball on the palms of my hands. When that happens it bounces off hard.