Category Wide Receiver

A Prayer for Sammy Watkins

November 7, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Wide Receiver

Watkins has the upside to lap the field of some fine receiver prospects when it comes to NFL potential. Photo by PDA.Photo.

When I watch the Clemson receiver, I find myself in a mode of prayerful thought. I know it’s probably wrong to ask for something this selfish, but I want a player like Watkins on my team and if I have to resort to the good entity upstairs, well . . . that’s what crazy fans do, right?

Dear Lord,

Thank you for my health, my family, my job, and the strength and whatever wisdom I’ve gleaned to live each day. I don’t like to bother you with trivial things because I imagine you have far weightier concerns about what’s going on down here like all the wars we’re fighting, child slavery, famine, and corruption. Of course, this could all be some sort of divine machination like some philosophers believe and it’s all part of a grand plan.

If that’s the case I might just be wasting my time fretting to you about it. If they’re wrong, however, I’d like to make a miniscule request that, if it fits within the rhythm of the universe and doesn’t cause harm to anyone – perhaps with the exception of emotional damage to 49ers fans – I’m hoping you’ll make so:

Would you please have the Seattle Seahawks draft Sammy Watkins?

How tempting it is for me to make this a legitimate prayer. I find myself thinking it the more I watch Watkins – especially last night when I took in the Clemson-Florida State debacle. Devonta Freeman was impressive, Rashad Greene was scintillating, and Jameis Winston has been spectacular, but hands-down Watkins is the best wide receiver prospect in this draft class if he comes out.

I know some of you Pac-10 wonks will shout the refrain of Marqise Lee. You already have several times and I know there’s no medicine for your SoCal Tourette Syndrome. I agree that Lee is a good one But if Watkins is alongside Lee, I’m taking the Clemson Tiger in every scenario.

Catch Radius-Hands

[youtube=http://youtu.be/LvzmKM7cdeI]

This is a simple concept – a short cross – but the execution is far more demanding thanks to Tajh Boyd’s errant throw and Watkins’ underrated catch. A throw that’s low and away while on the run is one of the more difficult adjustments to make on a target. Watkins makes it look routine. Watch enough NFL games and this is the type of play that the average veteran in a starting lineup makes.

Then look at the presence of mind to get the pads downhill and make a beeline for the first down marker. Although we’ve seen Watkins make his share of defenders miss, he’s far more consistent at knowing when to dispense with the bells and whistles of agility and handle the primary job of earning the first down.

Here’s another underrated demonstration of catch radius on a slant for a touchdown – a play where a majority of NFL players in this situation drop the ball. Even top prospects entering the league drop this pass and get fans questioning whether the player really is all that good. Then, when they make the play the next week-month-year fans promptly forget that the capability was there all long. Watkins will likely be one of those players.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/iIEGWBcvHbQ]

Once again, an errant throw from Boyd (see a pattern) and Watkins has to lean the opposite direction of his break to extend his arms for the ball, make the catch, and hit the ground after contact. The consistent technique to extend his arms and catch the ball with his hands earns Watkins second chances in situations like the one above.

Route Depth and Boundary Awareness

These are two things that Watkins – once he gets acclimated to the advanced level of the NFL game – will make him a primary receiver for an offense. Watch this third-down play and note how he breaks to the quarterback, maintains good route depth, and makes the catch with great technique despite a defender draped on his back.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/YtivJhrJARM]

Moreover, look at Watkins drag his feet. The receiver’s ability to integrate all of these skills into one play is an indication that Watkins has ingrained many of these techniques into his game with hard work. This is advanced receiving. Watkins is a receiver I expect to have a productive rookie year.

Physicality

This block is hard to see and it’s a play that catches the cornerback by surprise. Still, I love Watkins’ hustle.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/xIGgl-8IJN4]

It’s a great punch with good location and away from the flow of the play. It’s one of several small indications that I’ve shown that Watkins not only likes to play the game he likes to work at it. Combine that with great athleticism and natural gifts and just imagine the versatility the Seahawks would have with Percy Harvin, Golden Tate, and Sammy Watkins.

It probably won’t happen, but a man can hope, right? What I do know is that the team that gets Watkins will have some major prayers answered.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

NFL Closeup: Kenny Stills and 50/50 Ball Technique

October 15, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Wide Receiver

Stills' provides a great demonstration of 50-50 ball technique. — Stills’ provides a great demonstration of 50-50 ball technique.

An essential part of studying college stars is projecting them to the NFL game. You can’t do that well unless you’re well-versed in the NFL game. Therefore I watch a ton of pro football.

One of the terms I dislike that describes an aspect of playing the wide receiver position is “50/50 balls.” The term connotes that the offense is flipping a coin on the fate of a target. There’s also a perception that a target of this type requires a receiver with great physical skill to win the match up.

Height, vertical prowess, and strength are helpful, but there is technique involved with winning a “50/50 ball.” His touchdown reception late in the fourth quarter against two Patriots defensive backs is a great example. Here is a frame-by-frame demonstration.

Stills begins the play working against Alfonso Dennard in man coverage, getting behind the corner back with a quick fake outside. As he works down field, Brees throws the ball with a lot of arc and Stills is forced to wait on the target.

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The Patriots corner is in great position: The outside shoulder is in the middle of Stills’ chest and he’s dictating position to win the ball or at least play the pass and present a difficult obstacle for the ball to reach the receiver. However, note the position of Stills’ hands as he and Dennard track the football. Stills has his hands away from his body, above his chest, and above the arm of the defensive back.

This position gives Stills a chance to win the ball without fighting through Dennard’s reach to obtain the pass. The fact that his position is above Dennard’s arm also means he can be first to attack the pass despite Dennard having a better position to the pass.

As the ball arrive, Dennard turns and raises his arms to the sky. Stills maintains his position with his hands on the defender’s shoulder and turns his body to face the ball. Stills is now in position to address two contingencies. First, if Dennard gets his hands on the ball, Stills has his hands in position to chop the defender’s arms away from the pass and prevent an interception. Considering the position of the defender, it’s good that Stills recognizes and prepares for his possibility. Second, Stills is facing the target and gaining position to attack the football if it gets past Dennard’s reach.

As the ball arrives, Dennard is not attacking the ball as a receiver. He’s not square to the target and he only has one arm raised towards the ball. This nullifies much of Dennard’s position advantage and reduces his chances of intercepting the pass. One arm reaching for the ball instead of two also diminishes the chances of the corner even getting a hand on the football.

This poor approach to the ball also increases Stills’ chances to make a play, and the rookie has planned well. He is facing the target, both hands are up, and he’s in position to rip the ball loose of Dennard’s grip or attack the ball as a receiver.

The ball arrives just inside Dennard’s reach and Stills makes a successful attack on the target, catching it with good hands technique: arms extended, palms facing the ball, and fingers up. As soon as Stills makes the grab, he does the best possible thing, use his body to shield the safety.

The rookie turns outside the defenders and gives a cold shoulder to the safety, preventing a successful rip and enhancing his chances of securing the ball as he falls to the ground. This is the type of play Stills has demonstrated much of the preseason and it’s why he’s seeing red zone targets in Week 6 of the regular season.

This is in direct contrast of a play I profiled of Stills last year where you can see him struggling with the appropriate hands technique in the red zone. This is a different type of play, but the emphasis on body and hand position remain important. This play is a great demonstration of a young player demonstrating veteran savvy and technique.

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Keenan Allen RSP Sample

October 14, 2013 0 Comments read 2013 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

[youtube=https://youtu.be/08iQJLu41Yc]

The following excerpt and attachment at the end of this post are samples from the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio on Chargers’ wide receiver Keenan Allen. The Cal prospect was my No.2 receiver in both the pre-draft and post-draft versions of the RSP despite the fact he ran poor 40-times due to a lingering knee injury. The excerpt is from my rankings profile in the pre-draft RSP. The attachment is the checklists and play-by-play reports of the games I used to grade Allen.

2. Keenan Allen, California (6-2, 206)

If it weren’t for Patterson being that rare player with other worldly talent, Allen would pose a strong argument as the best prospect in this class of receivers. What flies off the screen when I watched Allen was similar to Patterson: Allen’s ability to make defenders miss in the open field with a variety of moves that you don’t often see from one player in a game, much less within the span of a four-yard gain. Allen may lack long speed, but he is lightning-quick, and sharp with his moves, and he sees the openings in tight quarters better than many players at his position. It just so happens he’s not as quick, fast, or strong as Patterson. These two have a lot of work to have this caliber of career, but imagine Ladainian Tomlinson (Allen) in the same draft class as Bo Jackson (Patterson). It’s a little tougher to appreciate Tomlinson’s athleticism in this situation.

Allen is a more refined, consistent talent than Patterson. He is very good against press coverage and he has the strength and coordination to swat, swim, swipe, or duck through the jam and his coordination between his hands and feet is excellent. The Cal receiver is capable of excellent hard breaks with a strong plant of the front leg and sink of his hips to generate a quick stop and turn. Combined this man-to-man technique with his understanding of when and where to break against zone coverage, all he needs is the ball in his hands on-time and in stride and he’s capable of generating big plays.

That is the component of the passing game that has been missing for Allen. The Cal receiver has lacked consistency at quarterback and there were plenty of routes where with a better passer he would have displayed even more ability to catch the ball with his back to the quarterback and make plays in rhythm that sends him into the open seam with the ball in his hand. There are enough plays from him against the likes of Cal-Davis, Arizona State, and Nevada that reveal a player with awareness of the sideline, skill with sharp breaks, and the ability to make plays more than swing passes, screen passes, hooks, and crossers.

What the inconsistent quarterback play did reveal is that Allen has a wide catch radius to make plays on errant throws away from his frame. He does an excellent job digging out low passes, high-pointing throws over his head, and extending for balls head or behind him on crossing routes or hooks. He does all of this with athletic grace and grit in the face of contact. If Allen could gain another 10-15 pounds with his height and speed, he could become a more formidable yards after contact receiver because at this point he falls when hit squarely by a defender in open space. However, the challenge for = college opponents is getting a hat on Allen in the first place. And I have little doubt that this will surely be an issue for NFL defenders.

Allen’s deep speed is his greatest question mark. At worst, he’ll be a deep-ball threat only in the play action game, but given his skill to get early separation, maintain position, adjust to the football, and make plays in the open field, I have little doubt that he’ll thrive as a high-volume receiver.

Keenan Allen Sample (Click to download .PDF)
For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Blocking: Alabama WR Kevin Norwood

October 1, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

Orange with pepper? Might as well watch a wide receiver in college football block. Right? Photo by Robert Tewart.

To the casual college football viewer, wide receivers and blocking go together like orange slices with pepper or french fries dipped in a Frosty. Both seem odd, but they work. A receiver who does his best to make the position and the task fit together Alabama’s Kevin Norwood.

I can think of dozens of receivers at the college level that I’ve seen who are better blockers. However, sometimes there’s a play worth showing because it’s instructive. This run block in the Texas A&M game is a good example of gauging the correct angle. And football at its best is the ability to anticipate and address the angles of the opposition.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/38aI1BhEztU]

This is a great angle by Norwood. Watching the play at full speed you might think he overran his target. But if Norwood overran the safety, how could he make the correct decision to turn the defender to the sideline without seeing the hole that his running back chose?

As with any play call, Norwood knows the general direction of this run and understands that his job is to seal the defender to the outside. The Crimson Tide receiver takes an angle to the safety’s inside shoulder to force the defender on an outside path. If the defender beats Norwood’s block to the outside, there’s a greater chance he’ll overrun the path to the ball carrier.

If the defender doesn’t get outside, Norwood has an easier task of turning the safety to the sideline and driving the defender backwards. This is a good example of leverage by body position in the run game.

By no means is this a perfect block. Norwood is overextended as he makes the turn. His pads and head are down and too far ahead of his hips. At this point, he has lost control of his form and his body. The safety should have been able to grab Norwood by the pads and rip the receiver outside and then take an inside path to the ball carrier. Instead, the safety tries to throw Norwood inside towards the ball carrier.

While inventive, the safety also has to improve his skills at shedding blocks because this decision is the difference between a third and short and a first down.

As for those of you wondering about Norwood as an NFL prospect, I’ll have more about him in the coming months. I will tell you that he has the athleticism and baseline skills against tight coverage to compete for a roster spot. The key for Norwood will be consistency in the passing game and effort like this in the run game. Compared to the pack of receivers draft analysts will lump Norwood, the Alabama senior is ahead of the game in this respect.

WR Mike Evans: Shades of Boston

September 23, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

If there's a current player along the continuum of receivers comparable to David Boston, it's Brandon Marshall. Photo by Casey Rhees. — If there’s a current player along the continuum of receivers comparable to David Boston, it’s Brandon Marshall. Photo by Casey Rhee.

Before David Boston was making headlines for substance abuse, he was a fine wide receiver. I’m not talking about the rocked-up Chargers’ incarnation. When Boston was an Arizona Cardinal and Ohio State Buckeye he had the makings of a perennial Pro Bowl performer.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/JspshPna-bs]

Even before he became a weight room fanatic, Boston was big, strong, fluid, and sure-handed. He had a combined 169 catches, 2754 yards, and 15 touchdowns during his second and third seasons in Arizona, averaging 16.3 yards per catch with the likes of Jake Plummer at the helm before he self-destructed.

Texas A&M’s red-shirt sophomore Mike Evans has skills that could help him develop into a player along the same stylistic continuum as Boston, Brandon Marshall, and Vincent Jackson. I don’t think he has the same explosive athleticism as Boston or Jackson, but he can thrive in this role in similar NFL offenses and he has earned his position as a top prospect at the position.

Here are six plays that illustrate why Evans is one of the top wide receiver prospects. Whether it’s this year, next, or the year after that Evans enters the NFL Draft, he has the talent to earn a top-50 pick.

Working With Johnny Manziel Has Helped Him

It’s fascinating that Evans reminds me of Boston, because his quarterback flashes both the good and bad of Boston’s teammate in Arizona, Jake Plummer. I’ll be writing about Johnny Football in Saturday’s Futures column at Football Outsiders. Manziel’s decision-making has maddening elements for his coaches and opponents alike, but one benefit of working with the Aggies’ quarterback is that it instills the mindset in receivers that a play is never dead.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/9MFbLEKDwzU]

Evans runs a deep post, sees that Manziel is flushed right, and makes a fluid adjustment to the outside flat, working back to the football. There are several positives and negatives about this play when it comes to evaluating Evans. First, I like that Evans’ displays no hesitation turning the route outside and working back to Manziel. Evans is absorbing the lessons of finding open zones and providing a good target for a quarterback in trouble. NFL passers will appreciate this aspect of Evans’ game if he demonstrates the same acumen as a professional. I have no reason to believe he won’t.

I’m also impressed with his open-field skills. He sees the open space and anticipates what he has to do to exploit it. This play is a great example because his back is turned to the open area he’s going to run to, but he’s aware of the position of the defenders in the area and has a good feel for their pursuit angles. Once it’s established that a receiver has NFL-caliber speed, knowing how to run where the defense is just as valuable a skill. Evans has this awareness.

What Evans lacks is also apparent on this highlight: sudden acceleration. He’s not an Antonio Brown type. He wasn’t open on the initial post and when he bends the route from the inside to the sideline, it’s a looping arc rather than a stop-start cut. There’s nothing wrong with that in particular – in fact it’s a great adjustment – but Evans thrives when he can get early position and use his big frame to stay on top of his opponent as the ball arrives. If Manziel didn’t have to leave the pocket, Evans’ post would not have been a viable target because the defender had inside position all the way.

This long-striding style is evident as a ball carrier. If Marqise Lee or Sammy Watkins catch this ball, their acceleration and stop-start agility would have either allowed them to cut across the field and beat the angles of defenders or outrun the backside pursuit in the open field. Evans has more natural power.

Evans will break tackles and maintain a good pace as a runner, but it takes him time to reach top speed. I think it means his best fit will be with a team whose idea of exploiting him in the short game is slants and crossing routes rather than bubble screens and smash screens.

Because he’s a long strider, his effort with breaks on short and intermediate routes need more work. He’ll have to improve on developing a more sudden route tree to become more than a one-dimensional option.

Evans Is Sideline Friendly

As I alluded to earlier, Evans is at his best when he gets his back to the defender and he can use his 6’5″, 225-lb. frame to maintain position on an island. This sideline fade is a fine example.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/yS-LPTl8IXI]

Evans is at the bottom of the screen on this play. he does a fine job of using his inside arm to get behind the defender, but what I like most about this play is what I’ve shown with some of the better wide receiver prospects year after year: the skill of earning/maintaining horizontal separation during the final segment of a target. While Evans can do a better job of establishing more space between himself and the sideline early in the route to make the throw easier for his quarterback, he has enough space to slide outside during the final steps before the ball arrives.

This fade thrown from the opposite hash is a good example of Evans demonstrating consistent space from the sideline.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/mh1rgn7tB9g]

Stop the video at the 8-second mark and Evans has excellent depth from the sideline and this gives him room to turn towards the ball, high-point the target, and continue to turn his body towards the sideline to shield the defender from the football. This is fluid work and he gets both feet in bounds. If he does this in the NFL, he’ll make a great living earning quality targets on the perimeter.

Vincent Jackson is one of the best free access receivers in the game. Mike Evans has the potential to function like Jackson in a pro offense. Photo by Keith Allison.

Physical

Evans thrives when he can release from the line of scrimmage and get his hands on a defender. Here is an example of a fluid punch to swipe through the defender with his inside arm and take an outside release.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/KIUByQCdEXM]

Also note the space Evan has from the sideline. This is also a reflection of his confidence to win physical battles early without the need to take a wide berth around the defender.

Evans attacks the defender on this 95-yard score. Watch him extend the outside arm into the defender before releasing inside.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/MC0cs4qXnBI]

This is fluid work. Moreover, I like how effortless Evans is at bending the round outside as he breaks to the football. This is a fluid adjustment to the football with his back to the quarterback. For good measure, he delivers an accurate punch to the face of the cornerback to maintain separation once he has the ball.

When the Aggie is first to attack, he keeps his opponents on their heels in coverage as well as pursuit. This is something Evans needs to continue doing when he transitions to the NFL. If he does, he’s going to earn a lot of open space in the short game against NFL corners who won’t press him for fear of getting ripped aside and beaten deep.

Where Evans has to improve is when a defender takes the fight to him. This corner fade is a great example.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/YFgcHLwddgg]

The Alabama defensive back is the first to punch and this disrupts Evans’ entire approach to the play. The wide receiver drifts too far to the outside and splays his legs too wide while leaping for the football. The entire process lacks control and he’s unable to earn possession in bounds.

Where Evans’ fails on this play is his assumption he could rip the defender aside with brute force. His hands need to be quicker and he has to have a game plan to counter an initial punch. This hesitation over how to play it is the root cause for him not making a smooth adjustment to the ball.

When he learns to handle defenders who are more aggressive, he’ll be difficult for any NFL defender to stop in the red zone.

At this point, Evans is a college star because of his physical skills and quality hands. He’s an NFL prospect because he flashes specific techniques at the position and acumen for the game that are well-integrated with his physical skills. Still, it’s clear that he’s still growing into his athleticism the way a young animal grows into his paws. There’s a grace and power, but he still has to learn all the ins and outs of how to utilize his tools.

Will he reach the potential of David Boston, Vincent Jackson or Brandon Marshall? I have more to study before I can make a final assessment of his talent, but I do believe he belongs on the spectrum of these players on the basis of style. Even if he falls short in a comparison of these three on the basis of talent, he still looks like a player who can help a team as a future starter and that’s an exciting prospect.

Futures: Clemson WR Sammy Watkins

September 7, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

It seems ridiculous to label a wide receiver with an 82-catch, 1219-yard, 12-touchdown debut as “unsung,” but consider the company Sammy Watkins kept his freshman year. The Clemson wide receiver is one of only four players in the history of college football to earn First Team All-America honors as a true freshman. The other three were Herschel Walker, Marshall Faulk, and Adrian Peterson.

A semester later, Watkins was arrested for possession of a controlled substance. This led to a two-game suspension and he missed two other contests with injuries. The result was an underwhelming sophomore effort of 57 catches, 708 yards, and 3 touchdowns. It’s what happens when a first-year college receiver ditches Walker, Faulk, and Peterson for the company of Vyvanse, Adderall, and Mary Jane.

By all means laud the talents of Marqise Lee, Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Donte Moncrief and Jordan Mathews. They’ve all earned it. But Watkins at his best laps this field of potent contenders for the crown of top receiver in college football. (I purposely left one receiver off this list, because I’ll be writing about him another week.)

Watkins has done the best job of these players at integrating his physical, conceptual, and technical skill sets at the position at this stage of his career. And as polished as he is, there is room for him to get better. If Watkins were a creation of real-life Dr. Frankenstein, the mad scientist would have spliced the genetic material of Percy Harvin’s rugged, explosive athleticism and Brandon Lloyd’s route savvy and mind-bending body control without the migraines or mood swings.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

On Scouting Wide Receivers

September 5, 2013 0 Comments read 2011 NFL Draft, 2012 NFL Draft, 2013 NFL Draft, 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

If you're trying to find the next Dez Bryant, then data has a vital place but if you take the approach that tries to reverse engineer a process that is unintentionally based on the idea that all productive receivers are like Dez Bryant, it's misguided. Photo by A.J. Guel. — If you’re trying to find the next Dez Bryant, then data has a vital place but if you take the approach that tries to reverse engineer a process that is unintentionally based on the idea that all productive receivers are like Dez Bryant, it’s misguided. Photo by A.J. Guel.

I believe analytics have value, but the grading of wide receivers based heavily on speed, vertical skill, and production is an ambitious, but misguided idea. Further the application is the torturing of data to fit it into a preconceived idea and making it sound objective and scientific due to the use of quantitative data. Unless the data is getting into some Nate Silver-like probability analysis, analytics is going to arrive at conclusions that are safe based on the past, but lack game-changing predictive value.

Some of my colleagues and friends at Football Outsiders, Pro Football Focus, and RotoViz will disagree. And many of you will too, because you’ve bought the idea that what’s being studied is objective and scientific. There is often an air of certainty and black-and-white finality to the communication of this “quantitative” information that readers find more palatable than if “qualitative” information is delivered with the same tone. Numbers make people sound more powerful and intellectual even if the quality of the information isn’t well designed.

I can tell you that I write because I put words together in a pattern that you can read. It doesn’t mean that I’m writing well. The NFL has bought into analytics for reasons that are both sound and naive. Analytics should only get better over time and I believe in its future. I just don’t buy into it lock, stock, and barrel. I think in this area of study with wide receivers, analytics needs to raise its standard and find another way.

The NFL will realize this about some methods of analytics sooner than later. Many teams are seeking a magic pill without fully understanding the manufacturing process that goes into it. Since they have been able to get this information for a modest fee and oftentimes at no charge in the early days (and we’re just emerging from the earliest of days in the era of analytics) because these individuals and companies found the payment of notoriety an acceptable alternative to money.

It only makes sense that “quants” figured they could make the money off readers later if they couldn’t earn it from teams now. This dynamic is also changing, but it’s worth understanding the nature behind their relationship with the league. Fortunately for both parties, they will continue to work together and only deliver better products on and off the field.

I’m trying to do the same from a different vantage point. The more I watch wide receivers, the less I care about 40 times, vertical results, or broad jumps. Once a player meets the acceptable baselines for physical skills, the rest is about hands, technique, understanding defenses, consistency, and the capacity to improve.

I liked Kenbrell Thompkins, Marlon Brown, Austin Collie, (retired) Steve Smith, several other receivers lacking the headlining “analytical” formulas that use a variety of physical measurements and production to find “viable” prospects. What these players share is some evidence of “craft”. They weren’t perfect technicians at the college level or early in their NFL careers, but you could see evidence of a meticulous attention to detail that continued to get better.

This video does an excellent job of explaining why speed is the most overrated part of a wide receiver’s game. Speed should be seen as the icing and not the cake. Technique is the cake. It’s a great instructional guide on route releases and breaks, how they differ on the NFL level. Check it out. I continue to on a regular basis.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ZLjgZc0sYIc]

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Flashes: WR Allen Hurns, Miami

September 4, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

Receptions verus contact heighten my attention to a player's potential. Photo of Victor Cruz by Kat Vitulano — Receptions verus contact heighten my attention to a player’s potential. Photo of Victor Cruz by Kat Vitulano

Long-time college and NFL coach Dave Wannestedt told an ESPN crew that he awarded Dion Lewis a full ride to Pitt after watching just one play of the Browns running back’s high school tape. Sounds foolish, but I won’t lie: There are some plays impressive enough that you realize you’ve seen much of what you need to see. These are rare moments and other than Adrian Peterson, I can’t remember the last time I experienced that feeling about a player after witnessing one play.

While no magic pill, there is a type of play for wide receivers that is guaranteed to heighten my interest in a player. I call it the Money Catch. Give me a receiver who can make these consistently and I’m less concerned about his height, weight, 40-time, bench press, or stats. A receiver who demonstrates this skill may not become an NFL starter, but there are few quality NFL starters who lack this ability.

University of Miami wide receiver Allen Hurns flashes this skill. The 6’3″, 195-pound prospect also provides a good illustration of a technique flaw I’ve heard many pro receivers discuss: Leaving one’s feet to catch a target that doesn’t require it. I still have more to watch of Hurns’ game, but here are three clear examples of good technique and a habit that needs curbing.

Money Catch

[youtube=http://youtu.be/JT5gkKPpWiw]

This is a 3rd-and-16 pass from a 1×2 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun set from a 3-3-5 look. Quarterback Stephen Morris’ makes a fine throw for Hurns to have an opportunity to make the reception. Still, it’s the wide receiver on this pitch and catch who does the dirty work. Hurns finds the opening in the zone under one safety and inside another on this post route after getting an inside release on the corner in shallow zone.

One of the tougher aspects of a catch with impending contact is when a player gets “ping-ponged” or hit in succession in different directions so one hit ricochets him into another from the opposite direction. Hurns does a fine job of protecting the football on this target.

If I were to nitpick, the hand position to catch the football could be a little better. Ideal hand position would be for Hurns’ index fingers angled upward but point towards each other rather than at 12 o’clock. The hands should look a spider web. This technique reduces the likelihood of the ball sliding through the fingers.

Overall, a strong play.

Leaving Feet – Part I

[youtube=http://youtu.be/yjAR_4CS_6Y]

This target is a 3rd-and-7 pass for a 10-yard gain from the UM 31 with 2:38 in the half. Hurns is the single receiver from a 11 personnel, 1×2 shotgun set. He is lined outside the numbers in the right flat with two safeties split towards the hashes.

The CB on Hurns is playing seven yards off and bails early, leaving a cushion for Hurns to break his route at the first down marker. He makes the catch with his hands, but if you look closely, just as his hands make contact with the ball he leaves his feet. He’s already trying to get into position to run.

The idea is a good one, but this is where the habit of leaping to catch a ball when not required can create a lapse of concentration. Hurns fails to secure the ball with the initial touch and fights the ball into his body during his turn. While not conclusive, I believe his adjustment disorients him just enough that he takes the wrong path down field towards three defenders rather than running up the sideline.

I like that Hurns gains three yards after the catch and bounces off contact with a good finish, but if he catches the ball with his feet on the ground, turns and takes an outside path towards the cornerback in a one-on-one situation, I think he gains a lot more than three yards.

Leaving Feet – Part II

[youtube=http://youtu.be/3-lAJwFkXSQ]

This is a 2nd and goal from the six with 6:11 in the third quarter from another three-receiver, 11 personnel shotgun. Hurns runs the slant and drops the ball after an initial juggle of the target. Watch the two replays after the first airing and you’ll see where Hurns takes a long step to gather his body for a jump. Because the pass is a little late and to the back shoulder, Hurns cannot make a strong adjustment to the ball after this elongated step forces him to leave his feet.

The throw could have been better, but Hurns’ habit of going airborne – even if it’s not a jump with any height – not only diminishes Hurns’ ability to focus on looking the ball into his hands, but also creates situations where he commits to a direction before the target arrives.

Futures at Football Outsiders: Venric Mark, Offensive Weapon?

August 31, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back, Wide Receiver

Is this the year McCluster gets a shot to maximize his skill set? Photo by Tennessee Journalist Wade Rackley. — Is this the year McCluster gets a shot to maximize his skill set? If so, it might help Northwestern runner-receiver-return specialist Venric Mark’s draft stock . Photo by Tennessee Journalist Wade Rackley.

Venric Mark: Offensive Weapon?

by Matt Waldman

A couple of months ago, an employee from an NFL player-personnel department asked for preliminary input on a project he’s undertaking. He asked me to relay things I watch when I study offensive skill players that he could quantify. One of the things I shared pertains to running backs.

What many quality pros at the position have in common is how they handle backfield penetration. Every runner looks effective when he can generate momentum towards an open crease, however it requires a strong integration of multiple skill sets to foil early defensive penetration.

These skills include anticipating the penetration during the exchange with the quarterback, avoiding the defense after the exchange, and the runner redirecting his path to minimize a potential loss after the defense disrupts the intent of the offensive play. I see this happen most when a defense is dominating an offensive line and limiting the runner’s box score production.

Some the most memorable evaluations I have performed on prospects have been runners during games where their teams were overmatched:

Marshall’s Ahmad Bradshaw versus a Top-10 worthy Tennessee defense.
Tulane’s Matt Forte against LSU’s top-ranked defense.
LSU’s Joseph Addai facing a top-ranked Auburn defense.

All three players performed poorly according to the box score data in these games, but what I saw them do on the field was impressive. Season-long production may demonstrate that the player is contributing to the team, but it’s one of the most overrated aspects of evaluating a prospect.

I find it more important to examine player performance independent from the quality of his production. I prefer to judge his skill on a series of behaviors and processes within the physical and conceptual scope of his position and his role in the game. This is more illuminating of a player’s potential than a box score.

However, there is an added layer of complexity that comes into play when a prospect has the talent to produce in the NFL, but he plays a position in college football where his physical dimensions don’t match the NFL’s traditional prototype.

Underscoring this challenge is the NFL embracing the latest offensive concepts that are successful in the college game. The more a team spreads the field, opts for read-option plays, and uses a multiple scheme, the more likely the team will be scouting players who were successful in these schemes. The problem is that, by traditional NFL standards, those players aren’t big enough to ride the pro rollercoaster.

When this happens, we often see these players earn vague position titles from coaches like utility back or offensive weapon. There are exceptions, but the vaguer the position title, the less likely the player will have a defined role and impact in the offense. It’s why this integration of skills to anticipate-avoid-redirect may not be as enlightening to scouts when they watch a smaller runner back.

These players are also a test of an organization’s overall vision. A personnel department can scout a player and determine he’s a worthwhile prospect, but if the organization isn’t aligned in its thinking, the coaching staff can miscast its young talent into an offensive design that doesn’t suit his skills.

Nothing like shopping for groceries to provide the chef all the ingredients for a fantastic Italian meal only to see him use these goods for a Mexican dinner.

Darren Sproles, Dexter McCluster, and Tavon Austin all fit that player type. McCluster was more Sproles-like in style when he joined the Chiefs, but the team had its share of running back talent. They converted the Ole Miss star into a full-time wide receiver and he has yet to make a real impact. Place McCluster in a system similar to the Saints and I think he’d be a standout.

Even as new schemes create a need for players without a positional prototype, “offensive weapons” without a traditional position have been around for decades. Two players that come to mind –- and there are several before them -– are Warrick Dunn and Eric Metcalf.

Dunn’s physical dimensions are in the same range as the McCluster-Sproles-Austin trio, but he proved he could do the dirty work between the tackles as a true running back. In contrast, Metcalf was a bigger player than all four of these prospects, but Bill Belichick’s use of Metcalf at running back in Cleveland yielded mixed results. Some of this was due to an old-fashioned scheme; the rest was Metcalf’s style.

Metcalf’s production made him a mediocre running back in Cleveland, but he was a good receiver in the short zone of the field and a fine return specialist. When the Falcons acquired Metcalf, they converted him to a full-time receiver in a run-and-shoot offense. Metcalf had 104 catches, 1180 yards, and eight scores in his first season.

Scheme made all the difference. Pair Metcalf with Belichick in New England and I suspect the Patriots’ head coach would have used Metcalf more like Wes Welker or what I expect the team to do with a healthy Shane Vereen this year.

A college player who reminds me of Eric Metcalf is Venric Mark. The Northwestern running back has flashed a similar type of skill to anticipate-avoid-redirect when facing backfield penetration but at 5-foot-8 and somewhere between 175-185 pounds, scouts will wonder which positional template Mark fits into -– if he fits into one at all.

He’s a player whose draft stock will not just be determined by his skill and athleticism, but by the performance of players like McCluster and Austin. If both of these young NFL talents falter beyond their special teams prowess, Mark will have to demonstrate that he’s a Dunn-esque exception to the rule as a runner or display the receiving prowess in the intermediate zone to earn a definitive position title and role.

While Mark has a knack for minimizing losses, his display of this particular integrated skill set won’t likely hold the same value compared to the likes of Bradshaw, Forte, and Addai because of his current size. Depending on his physical growth, level of skill, and an NFL teams’ perception of his potential, Mark could either be viewed as a pure running back or labeled an “offensive weapon.”

Mark’s performance in last year’s opener at Syracuse provides a good showcase for his versatility, explosiveness, and vision — but it also raises more questions about his future than definitive answers.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

RSP Flashback: Cardinals WR Andre Roberts

August 17, 2013 0 Comments read 2011 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

8200658214_c487993cd5_o — Roberts will also benefit from Bruce Arians moving Larry Fitzgerald around. See why he should be a worthwhile patience play for the Cardinals.

The 2010 rookie class of wide receivers was a minefield for draft analysts. The strength of the class lay in its collective athleticism. For every Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas who have developed into play-makers there are the likes of Arrelious Benn, Carlton Mitchell, David Gettis, and Marcus Easley – eye-catching athletes who have struggled to integrate the skills of the position into their game. Or in Danario Alexander’s case, stay healthy.

Yet there was a contingent of receivers who had average physical dimensions for the professional game, but their skills as receivers were the most promising aspect of their collective resumes. While there’s a school of thought that you can’t teach athleticism, I’m beginning to think that truism is relied upon too much. The downside of this is these players get drafted early, they need more development than they are often capable of absorbing at this level, and teams are more patient with them to “have the light come on.”

After a decade of study, I think teams need to spend more time looking at players who already know how to turn on the switch. I call this behavior a display of Integrated Skill Sets.
And I believe there should be a more qualitative effort to study them:

What are they for the position?
What’s difficult to learn about the position at the pro level?
Does the player know how to incorporate his athleticism into position’s technical demands?
Does the process what’s happening around him well enough to optimize his athleticism and skill?
What behaviors can help us more project a player’s ability to integrate the demands of the pro game?

The players in this 2010 class who demonstrated the strongest display of Integrated Skill Sets that I didn’t mention were Golden Tate, Eric Decker, Emmanuel Sanders, Riley Cooper, Blair White, and Andre Roberts. While White had a short-lived career, he’s an important player to mention because I think the one thing that the Colts player-personnel department did a fine job of identifying was players with Integrated Skill Sets.

I don’t know if they have anything defined as such when watching players, but even their misses were players who demonstrated a good feel for the game. White wasn’t inordinately big or fast, but he knew how to get open, read the field and opponents well, and he could make plays that required a combination of technique, spatial awareness in tight quarters, and physical toughness. If you recall White’s first touchdown was the result of jogging to the Colts huddle and telling Manning what he saw the corner cheating on previous plays.

Ironically, many football people believe that you can’t teach athleticism, but I’m beginning to wonder if you can teach smarts, precision, and awareness in football players if they don’t have it by the time they reach the NFL. At the day gig, I’m doing a story on one of the oldest and most prestigious specialty academic graduate programs of its kind that teaches a specific set of skills that has so much value to the corporate world, I’ve had numerous MBA graduates tell me that if they knew this program existed they would have pursued it instead.

The reason is that employers are practically waiting in line to hire these graduates. But ask these employers what they want to see more with this training and it’s the graduate’s ability to integrate all of the skills they’ve learned and make decisions that change the business for the better. They want the school to teach things that can’t be taught (inspired and reinforced, maybe): intelligence, curiosity, and experience.

The NFL’s job market has its parallels. It takes a certain type of talent to be a good receiver for Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, or Matt Ryan. Elite physical skills can get you onto the field, but look at the players who most consistently move the chains in tough situations and the guys they’re leaning on display intelligence, curiosity, and awareness in their game. Say what you will about Randy Moss’ effort or personality, but Bill Belichick called him the smartest receiver he’s coached.

Andre Roberts is no Randy Moss when it comes to his athletic gifts, but he was my fifth-ranked receiver in 2010 and one of my favorites in this class. The 5’11”, 195-pound Roberts was on my short list of receivers most likely candidate to make an immediate impact. However, Roberts had so many uncharacteristic drops in camp that his rookie year was unfruitful.

This slow start only reinforces my view that NFL teams would be served well to look at integrated skill sets, because by the end of his second season Roberts’ quarterbacks and coaching staff believed he demonstrated enough to develop into a star in the slot. The hope is that the acquisition of Michael Floyd would eventually allow the Cardinals to use Roberts as a receiver who they can move around to take advantage of his skills.

The 2013 camp story line may be about coach Bruce Arians moving Fitzgerald around like Reggie Wayne, but think of Roberts as Arians’ new T.Y Hilton. Remember, if you move one receiver, you’re likely moving another. Hilton also benefited from getting moved around the formation. Roberts isn’t as fast as Hilton, but I compared him favorably to Greg Jennings.

Roberts is a small-school prospect with big-time game. He has great body control to make catches of errant throws, runs routes anywhere on the field, and has strong skills after the catch. He’s a versatile player and had one of the best punt returns I have seen in a couple of years. He can weave through traffic, set up blocks, and make strong cuts. What I really like his skill to defeat the jam on a consistent basis. I have seen projections from others that believe Roberts will be a slot receiver. I agree with those that say he will start his career there, but I would like to point out that Greg Jennings has nearly identical dimensions as Roberts. I think Roberts might be a better player than Jennings was at this stage of their careers. If Roberts joins a team with a veteran quarterback, he’ll be a candidate to make an immediate impact in 2010.

Roberts has lacked an established veteran for most of his career, but he continues to flash skills that I think a quarterback of Carson Palmer has the ability to fully exploit this year. Here is my 2010 report on Andre Roberts. While the jury is still out on him becoming consistent, productive starter, I think he’s a lot closer than many of his more athletically-inclined classmates and the reason is his flash of integrated skill sets.