Read Listens Views 6/7/2013

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I've built a Hot Tub Time Machine for Palmer, but Bruce Arians might have done me better. Photo by Keith Allison.
I’ve built a Hot Tub Time Machine for Palmer, but Bruce Arians might have done me better. Check out my thoughts on the Cardinals offense in 2013 at Footballguys Photo by Keith Allison.

Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/VQm5gNo-5Vo]

A Message From Chet Gresham: Fake Football Writing Contest

Hello all you fake football writers and aspiring writers! Welcome to our 2013 writing contest. We’ll have prizes, guest judges, and a whole lot of fake football ideas being thrown around in a nice and orderly fashion. First off, let me thank our sponsors DraftDay and FantasyPros. Both great sites that I use more than the average obsessed fake footballer. Second off, you may ask, what’s in this for me!?  Details here.

Thanks

I’f you’re new to the blog, I make it a habit to post a mix of content on Friday and thank my readers for hanging around.

I don’t know when he broached this idea but Ryan Riddle conducted an informal survey of his Twitter followers, asking them to name “the best football sites out there.” Riddle didn’t specify what type of content – fantasy, stats, scouting, news, or strategy – he just wanted what first came to mind. Each person gave their top three sites in order.

Riddle released a list of 71 sites this week and the list is a strong group. I didn’t know about the survey so I didn’t vote. However I was glad there were folks who voted for sites like Coach Huey and Blitzology – two lesser known sites to the general public, but excellent resources for a lot of writers contributing content to sites higher on the list.

I expected to see  Football Outsiders and Footballguys place high on the list and readers didn’t disappoint – rating them 3rd and 7th among all sites, respectively. I was delighted to see that this site you’re reading placed 24th overall – tied with ESPN, X and O Lab, Draft Calc, and Cat Scratch Reader – and even earned a first-place vote.

I didn’t expect to see the RSP blog on the list, so it was a pleasant surprise to be in the top-third of a list as esteemed as this one. Thank you all for following my blog, sharing what you like, and buying the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

If you haven’t bought the RSP before, I can say with pride that you’ll get as much out of it as I put into it – and I put everything I can into it. My readers will tell you they love it. If you’re on the fence, I am confident that you’ll realize this is one of those cases where there’s little hype to what I’m saying here. Plus, I donate 10 percent of each sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit whose mission is to prevent and combat sexual abuse through community training and awareness.

Download the RSP now and know that with your purchase, you also get access to the 2013 Post-Draft publication that comes with it. At the very least, follow this blog click on the link on the left to follow and you’ll receive email updates when I post new articles that give you a taste of the analysis and detail put into the RSP publication. Then consider supporting the site (and do yourself a favor at the same time) by downloading the publication.

Football Reads

If the name Cian Fahey sounds familiar to you but can’t place it, setting in for some nice reads from the football writer who has been a part of two RSP Writers Projects and has most helpful providing updated spreadsheets tot the writers so we didn’t have too many duplicate draft picks. What I admire about Fahey as a football writer is that he isn’t afraid to take a stance that might earn him criticism, but it’s not something he does for the sake of attracting eyeballs to his work. You can follow Cian on Twitter at @Cianaf. 

Moreover, I recommend checking out his blog Pre-Snap Reads. Here are a few pieces I enjoyed reading this week:

Bonus Football Read

  • George, Visger, The Damage Zone – Patrick Hruby’s profile on Visger is a heartbreaking read, but he mainlines the truth about pro football players and the complex relationship they have with the sport. 

Non-Football Reads

  • Animal Behaviorist: We’ll Soon Have Devices That Let Us Talk to Our Pets – My wife once told me when were dating that my (now deceased) cat Mookie was a sweet guy and very smart, but warned me that if he ever started talking she was leaving and not coming back. I think this also goes for my cat Zookie, who she once told to “get a job” after shooing him off the new couch and two days later when I saw him sitting next to her, she explained that he “got a job” (he brought her a bird) so she had no choice but to indulge him. Still, if a device becomes readily available I doubt it will ever be allowed in our house. Plus, I’m pretty sure Zookie curses and speaks in slang neither of us would understand.
  • When The Beautiful Game Turns Ugly – A must-read by Wright Thompson. It’s not a comforting story, but it’s a great one because as much as the world has changed the elements that generate hate remain in place and easy to exploit.
  • Michael Jordan Has Not Left the Building – When you read a piece about an icon like Jordan and almost feel sorry for him because of his difficulty turning off the competitive switch as well as gaining insight to what makes him far more human now than what we were allowed to see in the `80s and `90s,  you know Thompson did a fine job.
  • Six Key Foods to Help Regulate Sleep – Former GM Ted Sundquist has a football site. I’m sure there’s other fine material to mine, but this piece about food and regulating sleep patterns by guest writer Christine Jones caught my eye first.

Views

I didn’t hear about this controversy regarding the Cheerios commercial this week (I was too busy reading about hatred and stupidity in Italy) to notice that we had our own example of parts of our country not quite ready to look at the world as a collection of human beings as individuals.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/kYofm5d5Xdw]

Great commercial and good for you, General Mills for standing behind it.

Listen-View

[youtube=http://youtu.be/KNa3gZfQfH0]

If you’re not used to the constant pause-rewind of football tape this could leave you jittery, but the chance to listen to Alex Gibbs talk about zone blocking is good stuff. H/T Chris Brown.

Coming Soon

  • More 2014 prospect articles
  • More 2013 camp watch pieces
  • A study on quarterbacks with dynasty leagues in mind at Footballguys

RSO Team: Football Outsiders’ Rivers McCown

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It's a bad idea to evaluate a smile the way you critique his release. Photo by PDA.Photo
Any team with Cam Newton as the quarterback is primed for big weeks. Rivers McCown of Football Outsiders gives you the rest of the scoop on his RSO squad from last month’s auction. Photo by PDA.Photo

Rivers McCown makes my Futures column look better. He makes all the Football Outsiders look better – at least in print. McCown participated in our recent Reality Sports Online writer draft. This is an auction league that includes multi-year contracts. Go here to learn more about the league.  You can join a league for $9.99 as an individual or form a league with your friends. Go to www.realitysportsonline.com and use the promotion code RSP20%OFF, you’ll earn a 20 percent discount. 

Pre-Draft Strategy

I actually didn’t have time to come in with much of a strategy. I rather liked how it turned out, and I had a few big ideas going through my head when creating the team (get settled at RB early and target older receivers with the belief that they’ll be cheaper), but I can’t attest that I had some grand, unified theory come true. In retrospect, I would have aimed for one very good, young receiver with my four-year deal rather than David Wilson, but I’m not dissatisfied.

For a time, D.J. Harper was considered the best back at Boise State - and Doug Martin was on the team . Photo by Football Schedule.
McCown thought his deal on Martin was such a steal that the league was going to roll back the auction, but he made off in the night with a top RB at a great contract. Photo by Football Schedule.

How the Auction Unfolded

Quarterback Yrs $ Running Back Yrs $
Cam Newton (CAR)
 3 49.0
Doug Martin (TB)
 3 67.5
Josh Freeman (TB) R
 1 3.5
David Wilson (NYG)
 4 56.5
Chase Daniel (KC) R**
 1 0.5
Stepfan Taylor (ARI) R
 3 R
Theo Riddick (DET) R
 3 R
Willis McGahee (DEN) R
 1 2.5
Montario Hardesty (CLE) R
 1 1.5
Daniel Thomas (MIA) R
 1 1.0
Michael Smith (TB) R
 1 0.5
Jeremy Stewart (OAK) R**
 1 0.5
Wide Receiver Yrs $ Tight End Yrs $
Andre Johnson (HOU)
 2 32.5
Jermichael Finley (GB)
 2 6.0
Reggie Wayne (IND)
 1 15.0
Tyler Eifert (CIN) R
 3 R
Lance Moore (NO)
 1 4.5
Fred Davis (WAS) R
 1 1.5
Mohamed Sanu (CIN) R
 1 2.5
Rueben Randle (NYG) R
 1 2.5
Malcom Floyd (SD)
 1 2.5
Jarius Wright (MIN) R
 1 1.5
T.J. Graham (BUF) R**
 1 0.5
Nate Burleson (DET) R
 1 0.5
Justin Hunter (TEN) R
 3 R
Ryan Swope (ARI) R
 3 R
Kicker Yrs $ Defense Yrs $
Rob Bironas (TEN) R
 1 0.5
Chicago
 1 0.5
Ryan Succop (KC)
 1 0.5
Pittsburgh
 1 0.5

**These players were acquired via free agency after the draft. 

I think I got Doug Martin for a song because nobody was awake yet – I was surprised that didn’t get rewound when it happened. That enabled me to get a little more aggressive with the other guys I had targeted. I think the two biggest mistakes I made was not getting a third “established” back (because who knows what will happen with McGahee, Ball, Hillman, etc.) and losing a bidding war with Mike Clay for Antonio Brown when he was the last truly elite receiver (in my mind) on the board. I recovered and garnered a lot of possible WR3 guys, but none of them have Brown’s upside and I could have spent less on the margins to bring him in without losing much.

The quarterback shuffle was the most interesting part of the league for me. I think there were some good bargains with the older quarterbacks, but I was dead-set on a young guy. I knew that a Matt Waldman league was not a place where Russell Wilson would go cheap. Colin Kaepernick got thrown out early and was surprisingly expensive. Luck got thrown out early and was ridiculously expensive. So I hitched my wagon to Cam Newton and went a little over my initial range. If Carolina continues to involve him in the run game, he’s the one quarterback with the body I’d bet on to survive it, so I was less hesitant to spend on him than I would have been with some of the other young quarterbacks.

Best/Worst Deals

While I disagree with McCown about the value of Finley relative to Davis, the recent non-playoff productivity isn't that far away. Photo by Elvis Kennedy.
While I disagree with McCown about the value of Finley relative to Davis, the recent non-playoff productivity isn’t that far away. Photo by Elvis Kennedy.

Martin is my best deal, clearly. I also though Finley was a decent bargain at his price given how guys like Vernon Davis and Tony Gonzalez went for at least $8 million. My least favorite bid was for Fred Davis, who I was just trying to bump up – $1.5 million isn’t a killer, and there’s upside, but it’s injury-dependent. I’m happy he’s my third tight end.

Good Deals By Other Writers

McCown thought Sigmund Bloom's acquisition of LeSean McCoy was one of the best deals of the Reality Sports Auction. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.
McCown thought Sigmund Bloom’s acquisition of LeSean McCoy was one of the best deals of the Reality Sports Auction. Photo by Matthew Straubmuller.

I am a big fan of Sigmund Bloom’s LeSean McCoy deal – I think it fit the basic scale of my Martin deal, but was just a little more expensive. I thought Jim Day struck gold with Eric Decker for three years, $25 million. Antonio Gates for $1 million is a deal that made my jaw drop.

Honestly, outside of the Gronkowski deal, I thought Bloom had a few other killer deals, too. Jordy Nelson was a sneaky steal at $32.5 million for 3 years, but put me in the camp that wouldn’t have paid more than the league minimum for Sam Bradford.

And as good as A.J. Green is, I think he’s going to have a hard time living up to the $92.5 million, 3-year deal that Lance Zierlein signed him to while running his auction at a Little League game.

Favorite Team (Other Than Yours)

I think Bloom and Bob Harris put together the most complete teams. They have the strongest receiving corps. Harris needs a second running back to step up and Bloom needs Roethlisberger to stay healthy all season. If either one of those things break right they have tough teams with a lot of depth.

Assessment of the Reality Sports Online Platform

The functionality was fine. I wish I understood a little more about how the top bid algorithm was decided, but that’s just my inner nerd.

Your Team’s Short-Term/Long-Term Outlook

Short-term, I think this team has a great chance as long as the running backs stay healthy. Long-term, it really depends on how the receiving situation shakes out. Can Mohamed Sanu make me feel good about that two-year deal? Is the lack of depth on the market going to make it hard for me to replace Reggie Wayne? Am I going to have a chance at Marqise Lee? Haha. That’s the area where the turnover is going to be hard to predict right now, but I’d rather have holes to fill there than at the other spots.

Early `14 Takes: Rutgers WR Brandon Coleman

0 Comments read Players, Wide Receiver
Who knew? Photo by Eamonn.
Who knew? Photo by Eamonn.

Patriots rookie Mark Harrison might have been the best wide receiver on the 2013 Rutgers squad, but I’m not sure he was the most promising. That title may belong to Brandon Coleman, a 6’6″, 220-pound rising senior. Even if Coleman’s listed height gets exposed as SID-speak (Sports Information Department – also known as athletic department PR) for a true height of 6’4″, the Scarlet Knight receiver has the type of physical skills and raw technical grasp of the position to earn attention from the NFL. Some are already projecting that attention will translate to an early round pick.

I see the reasons why, but I have the luxury that many working for media corporations do not: I don’t have to deliver rankings for the 2014 class before I’ve seen enough of the class to make an informed decision. Next time you think about asking a draft analyst why a certain player was ranked so well heading into a season but by March he has a late-round grade, keep what I said in mind. It won’t always be the case, but it does pay to think critically about the nature of the business and not just about the nature of the player.

I think Coleman is the type of player whose stock could fluctuate greatly in either direction. I have studied two games of Coleman’s thus far and I can tell you that I don’t have enough information to feel comfortable saying where he stacks up. However, I enjoy writing about these murky situations. There’s often something worth sharing that the clear-cut, bottom-line answer doesn’t reveal.

What I see from Coleman that could elevate him to the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft is height, weight, speed, and the ability to adjust to the football and make these adjustments with his hands well away from the football. This 1st-and-10 target with 9:47 in the first quarter from the Rutgers seven is a good example. Coleman is the outside receiver on the twin side of an 11 personnel, 2×1 receiver set.

The Syracuse corner assigned to Coleman is a yard off the line of scrimmage and shaded outside the receiver. Coleman works outside the corner and out runs the defender, earning a step of separation at the 25 and extending his arms to make the catch on a fade route.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc8QWAVE0Nc?start=7rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Watch the replay that follows. Coleman uses his inside arm early in the route to ward off the defender’s attempt to jam him before making a nice adjustment to the ball, fading to the sideline late as the ball arrives. I especially like how Coleman secured the football. He does a nice job of using his hands and fingertips to stab the ball with his outside arm as it arrives over his inside shoulder and then secure the pass to his body with his inside arm.

This is good coordination and fluid athleticism while in the act of veering away from the defender at the last moment. This late move to achieve horizontal separation is a less-discussed aspect of getting open because the emphasis is always about getting behind the defender and that is only part of the equation. Overall, it’s a nice adjustment for a 26-yard gain.

It’s the type of play that falls into Coleman’s wheelhouse as a tall, fast, long-armed receiver. What I want to see Coleman do in 2014 is run routes with hard breaks and make catches after contact when the defender is able to lower his pads and drive through the contact as Coleman is attacking the football. If he can exhibit good technique and consistent production in these two facets of his game, Coleman will earn that high ranking.

Another thing that clouds the draft-day picture for Coleman is quarterback play at Rutgers. Coleman earned nine targets against Syracuse and all but three of those targets were to some degree errant throws that required an adjustment. None of the adjustments I categorized as difficult targets, but they were closer to that end of the spectrum than they should have been:

  • Under thrown deep targets
  • Passes thrown hard and behind the receiver’s break on short routes
  • Late throws that prevent the receiver from running under the ball and away from the defender

An example of what Coleman is missing from the quarterback position is this deep post with 6:46 in the first quarter on 2nd-and-five from a 12 personnel twin right formation.  Coleman is the inside the receiver in this twin set and has a corner at the line of scrimmage shading the receiver to the outside.

The free safety is at the hash about eight yards deep and the strong safety and linebackers are five-six yards off the line of scrimmage in the middle of he field. The strong safety’s depth is the key for Coleman and his quarterback to know that a deep post that breaks right to left will come open behind the strong safety. Watch from 0:25-0:31 below:

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc8QWAVE0Nc?start=25rel=0&w=560&h=315]

At first glance, it appears that Coleman runs a deep post but cannot catch up to the pass as the ball lands near the Syracuse 10. Because we only see Coleman’s initial release and then him chasing the ball, one might conclude with this limited information that the receiver could not work past the corner and failed to get separation early enough to run under the ball. Watch the replay focused on the receiver’s route:

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc8QWAVE0Nc?start=34rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Coleman does face contact from the corner and he’s also in the path of the free safety over top, but the Rutgers receiver does a nice job of using his outside arm to keep the defender away from his body and at the same time reduces his inside shoulder to avoid contact from the free safety. It’s a nice release against two defenders aiming to slow him down.

I don’t think they do. If you freeze the frame at 0:38 in the video, you’ll see Coleman break inside the hash and have a solid yard of separation inside the corner. If the quarterback leads Coleman across the field, this target has a great chance of resulting in a touchdown. Instead, the quarterback throws the ball over Coleman’s right shoulder and forces an immediate adjustment from the receiver to straighten his break and veer back to the right hash.

Coleman’s adjustment is immediate, but it’s still too late for him to reach the pass. If he quarterback places the ball in the direction of the break, I have little doubt Coleman fails to reach it. One angle indicates the possibility of poor separation against two defenders, another reveals a nice route with a poor throw.

An element of Coleman’s game that requires immediate improvement is ball security. If there’s a takeaway from this Syracuse contest, it’s that Coleman’s long arms are both an asset and liability at this point in his career. This screen pass does a fine job of covering the spectrum of good and bad.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc8QWAVE0Nc?start=65rel=0&w=560&h=315]

The play is a 12 personnel weak side twin set and Coleman is the outside receiver at the Rutgers 35. The beginning of the play is a good example of how Coleman uses is long arms to win the ball and beat an opponent.  He turns to the quarterback, squares his body to the target, and leaps for the ball placed over his head. This target requires good arm extension from Coleman and he makes the catch with both hands.

He secures the ball to his body and turns outside the oncoming corner who is hoping to blow up the play behind the line of scrimmage. Coleman squares the defender and makes a good, quick turn, tucking the ball to his left side and uses his use his right arm to shove the defender away. This move leaves the defender flailing for air. Coleman’s height and strength should make this a common even in his game tape, but thus far I have seen less of it than I thought.

I also like who Coleman looks to the second defensive back inside the lead blocker in the flat. Coleman does a good job working outside and then stopping and turning inside to set up the lead block as they reach the line of scrimmage. But the next decision as a ball carrier is not as clear-cut good or bad. After gaining three yards to the inside, Coleman sees the safety flash over top five yards away and opts to change direction back to the outside behind his lead blocker.

I think for this play it was a bad decision and he should have continued up the flat towards the inside. He had room to squeeze ahead of the trailing defensive end untouched and then take on the safety. This decision probably gets him close to the first down marker.

Instead, Coleman works outside, the corner beats the block, and hits the receiver over top. At the same time, the corner Coleman left on the ground earlier in the play, regains his feet, chases the receiver and delivers a hit  from behind.

Like many long-limb receivers,  ball carriage can be loose at the elbow for Coleman and on this play his elbow is not tight enough to his body. The cornerback hitting Coleman over top punches it loose.  Although Coleman is able to turn back and pounce on the ball, it’s an indication of deficient ball security natural to his body type.

Back to the ball carrying decision in the open field. While I thought it was a bad decision, it’s the type of hindsight analysis that is difficult use when judging the player’s vision. I understand why Coleman reacted to the safety flashing across the field and opted to use his lead block a second time.

At the same time, I see many college receivers try too hard to change direction and allow the pursuit to catch them. I’d rather see more commitment to the intended path and finish with the pads low. I think the best NFL receivers tend to commit down field and keep the momentum forward. Coleman has enough strength to work through glancing blows and run through arm tackles. I’d rather see him use his size to his advantage.

Overall, I see a receiver with similar physical skill sets and limited football environment as Demaryius Thomas and Calvin Johnson when they were at Georgia Tech. I still have more to watch before I can say where he compares along that spectrum of talent, but the stylistic comparisons are evident.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Camp Watch List: Lions WR Patrick Edwards

0 Comments read Wide Receiver

Calvin Johnson needs a complement with big-play ability in Detroit. Patrick Edwards has the ability and the opportunity, but does he have the physicality?

Lions veteran Nate Burleson told the media yesterday that second-year receiver Patrick Edwards is poised to emerge as a play maker in Detroit. Edwards entered the league as a 5’9″, 175-pound prospect from the University of Houston with excellent speed, but returning from a freakish injury that he sustained earlier in his college career when he collided with a cart in the back of the end zone at Marshall.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/6MXXki4TtGQ]

I did not rank Edwards in the 2012 RSP because I didn’t want to project him without seeing more as an intermediate and short route runner. More important, players of his dimensions are often overlooked by the NFL or view him in a limited role. I studied Edwards’ 10-catch, 162-yard 3-touchdown performance against Central Florida in 2010 and I was impressed with him.

To underscore this point, I had Edwards in a fantasy league where rosters allowances exceed 55 players over the summer and I acquired Edwards again this morning. I still only recommend looking at Edwards as a summer consideration in larger leagues, but I do understand why Burleson and the Lions like what they see.

The reason I acquired Edwards is a mix of what I saw from him as a Houston Cougar and the fact that Lions seem open to using a diminutive player.  Here’s what football fans should know about this intriguing receiver courtesy of my RSP Scouting Checklist and play-by-play study of the young receiver.

Patrick Edwards’ Report 

Game Info

  • Date: 11/5/2010
  • Opponent: UCF
  • Location: Houston
  • Surface: Grass
  • Climate/Temp: Night-Temperate
  • Score: 33-40
  • Year: Junior

Game Production

  • Targets: 14
  • Missed Targets: 2
  • Drops: 1
  • Catches: 10
  • Receptions After Contact: 2
  • Receptions Yards: 162
  • Yards After Catch: 31
  • TDs: 3

Overall Score: 74.5

Score Explanation: A player scoring in the range of 70-79 points is a rookie with NFL-caliber talent, but likely falls under one of these categories:

  1. He is new to the position and has a wealth of physical talent.
  2. He lacked great coaching and his technical skills detract from his physical talent.
  3. He has strong technical skills, but he’s lacking the NFL-caliber physical talent to develop into a long-term productive starter.
  4. Injuries depressed his overall score.

Players in the upper half of this range often become starters – sometimes stars – but the rate of development is often slower than their peers. A player in the lower half is more likely to develop into a career backup with the ability to produce in spot situations. Fantasy owners will not want to draft these players in traditional leagues, but they do have nice value as mid-to-late round picks in dynasty leagues with deeper rosters.

Even if not drafted to a fantasy roster in his first year, a savvy owner will be aware of this player and acquire him off waivers at the opportune time. Some of these players I didn’t see produce one or two key skills that depressed their scores and I didn’t feel comfortable ranking them. Quality WR and TE prospects tend to score in this range on my checklists because the position has a tougher learning curve than running back and a tendency to lack the caliber of detailed coaching and development from college programs.

Edwards’ Strengths:  Edwards is a smaller receiver with a good burst and consistent hands. He has the burst to get behind cornerbacks and gain yardage in chunks once he’s in the open field. He makes the effort as a blocker and demonstrates good technique with his punch, feet, and hands to sustain blocks as long as his size and strength will allow.

I’m impressed with how he adjusts his vertical routes to use the sideline in coverage. He also understands how work turn contact against the defender during the route to gain additional separation. He’s a downhill runner after the catch. I think his potential is a little higher than his grade because I didn’t see him have to set up routes, work back to the quarterback, or attempt a difficult catch.

Edwards’ Weaknesses: Edwards is a short and light player for the position by NFL standards. Although he makes the effort as a blocker he doesn’t have the strength to consistently sustain blocks. He isn’t a huge factor after the catch in tight coverage because he lacks the strength to generate a push after the initial contact.

Edwards catches the ball with his hands, but he didn’t consistently get his hands away from his body to make plays at the first window of opportunity to snare the football. His tendency to catch the ball at the later windows of opportunity rather than the earlier windows is a concern. He dropped a sideline curl late in the game that could have put Houston in scoring position, because he didn’t use his hands to attack the football.

I thought Edwards was too tentative of a decision maker in the open field and on designed runs. If his first option isn’t available he doesn’t use enough of his quickness and lateral agility to create openings and he doesn’t take away angles of defenders when they are close to him.

Although there were some route techniques I didn’t get to see due to the flow of the game, even if Edwards is adept at these things I don’t see him becoming anything more than a complementary receiver in multiple receiver sets at the NFL level. He simply lacks the physicality and lateral agility to earn a starting role in the NFL.

You can download the rest of the PDF checklist and play-by-play notes here: Patrick Edwards

NFL Outlook: Edwards has the speed and ball-tracking ability to produce in a spread offense like Detroit. I can see how the Lions will primarily use him in the slot opposite the tight end and exploit the middle of a defense on deep seam routes, corner routes, and crosses. Because safeties have to respect Calvin Johnson, there is ample opportunity for Edwards to generate big plays. I also believe Edwards adjusts to the ball well enough to work the perimeter in certain defensive looks.

If Edwards demonstrates improvement with attacking the football, I think he can become a reliable weapon in the Lions offense as the third option in the passing game. He is capable of providing a big-play element in the slot where he won’t face press coverage that often and will eliminate some concerns about his size. However, the size factor remains a concern because the physical nature of the game can wear down a 175-pound player.

Until there’s more to see, I have to project Edwards as a boom-bust producer if he sees the field. However, there are factors to watch that could elevate his potential:

  • Additional muscle/weight to handle the NFL game inside the hash marks 
  • Sharp route recognition and rapport with Matthew Stafford
  • Decisive and effective skill shedding press coverage if used outside

Skill-wise, Edwards is worth the intrigue. Stay tuned to see if physically he can make the cut.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

RSO Team: Fantasy Throwdown’s Mike MacGregor

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
When Morris could conceivably be your No.3 or No.4 RB by year's end, you're deep at the position - perhaps too deep in this league (if there is such a thing. Photo by Keith Allison.
When Morris could conceivably be your No.3 or No.4 RB by year’s end, you’re deep at the position – perhaps too deep in this league (if there is such a thing. Photo by Keith Allison.
Mike and I (to some extent) run Fantasy Throwdown, a one-on-one, flexible draft, weekly fantasy game that is intuitive, addictive, and free to play. Mike provided a complete writeup of his RSO team . I’ve added a bit from the peanut gallery. If you go to www.realitysportsonline.com and use the promotion code RSP20%OFF, you’ll earn a 20 percent discount. You can join a league for $9.99 as an individual or form a league with your friends.

Pre-draft strategy

First off, I had a conflict the night of the auction and had to hand the reigns over to RSO’s “men behind the madness”, Stephen and Matt, to handle my auction for the first 1-2 hours until I could get online. This was of course going to be the most crucial time in the auction when the highest ranked and highest paid players are bid on. I was bummed to miss it, but thankfully, I was in good hands with the guys who have the most RSO experience.

I started my auction prep by estimating the dollar values for all players. This started as simply finding average auction values (AAV) from the prior year, attaching the QB1 AAV to my #1 ranked QB this year, QB2 AAV to #2 ranked QB, RB1 AAV to my #1 ranked RB, etc., etc., and grossing up all values for the cap in this league. Then I made manual adjustments under the impression that most of the owners in this league will bid more aggressively on stud players, and save less for middle of the road and lower ranked players (creating greater separation from top to bottom than the AAV indicated).

The total dollars attributed to all players in my estimated draftable player pool had to be roughly equivalent to sum of available cap dollars for all teams, after deducting rookie contracts, about $10 million per team left over for in-season acquisitions and a minimum contract value for a pair of kickers and defense. I figured I had $101 million to spend on 21 roster spots, or an average of $4.8 million per player.

At this point with my player rankings and estimated dollar amounts, I highlighted players I would be willing to drop a 4-year or 3-year deal on, plus players I had no interest in acquiring. Not that the don’t acquire players are bad players, but just that I felt the risk and expected cost would be higher than I was willing to pay. Examples of players that made this list included Rob Gronkowski, Arian Foster, Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, Percy Harvin, Tony Romo and Matt Stafford.

I discussed with Stephen there were certain RB I’d be willing to drop a multi-year deal on, but preferably we want to attach our 4-year and 3-year deals primarily to the WR and QB positions. I made a priority list of 13 players to give a 4-year contract to, feeling that my approach to the RSO auction would be (a) decide how many years you want to give this player, and (b) see how the bidding goes at that length of contract.

One of only a half-dozen guys I could unequivocally see as an upgrade to Alfred Morris Photo by Mike Pettigano.
Trent Richardson – One of only a half-dozen guys I could unequivocally see as an upgrade to Alfred Morris Photo by Mike Pettigano.

Here is the 4-year list:

  1. Aaron Rodgers
  2. Andrew Luck
  3. A.J. Green
  4. Trent Richardson
  5. Aaron Hernandez
  6. Jimmy Graham
  7. Julio Jones
  8. Calvin Johnson
  9. Russell Wilson
  10. Matt Ryan
  11. Randall Cobb
  12. David Wilson
  13. Doug Martin
And then I made a similar 3-year priority list:
  1. Anyone left on 4-year list
  2. Peyton Manning
  3. Adrian Peterson
  4. Victor Cruz
  5. Pierre Garcon
  6. Demaryius Thomas
  7. Larry Fitzgerald
  8. Cheaper guys (assuming already have a lot of $ tied up in 4-year/3-year deals)
  9. Anyone else highlighted on rankings tab

And from there I pretty much left it to Stephen and Matt, knowing I would be logging on in a frenzy in the middle of the auction in catch-up mode.

MacGregor’s Team
Quarterback Years $ Running Back Years $ Wide Receiver Years $
Tom Brady (NE) 3  $40.0 Trent Richardson (CLE) 4 $97.0 Vincent Jackson (TB) 2 $29.5
Andy Dalton (CIN) R 1  $2.0 Alfred Morris (WAS) 3 $47.0 Brian Hartline (MIA) 1 $1.5
Christian Ponder (MIN) R 2  $2.0 Le’Veon Bell (PIT) R 3 R Jeremy Kerley (NYJ) R 1 $1.5
Ryan Nassib (NYG) R 3  R Lamar Miller (MIA) R 2 $25.0 Nate Washington (TEN) R 1 $1.5
Matt Cassel (MIN) R 1  $0.5 Ray Graham (HOU) R 3 R Brandon Gibson (MIA) R 1 $0.5
Kerwynn Williams (IND) R 3 R Andre Roberts (ARI) 1 $0.5
Roy Helu (WAS) R 1 $0.5 Kenny Stills (NO) R 3 R
Dion Lewis (CLE) R 1 $0.5 Donald Jones (NE) R 1 $0.5
David Nelson (CLE) R 1 $0.5
Mike Thomas (DET) R 1 $0.5
Tight End Years $ Kicker Years $ Defense Years $
Tony Gonzalez (ATL) 1 $13.0 Blair Walsh (MIN) 1 $0.5 Arizona 1 $0.5
Brent Celek (PHI) R 1 $1.0 Justin Tucker (BAL) R 1 $0.5 Carolina 1 $0.5
Brandon Myers (NYG) 1 $2.0

How did the auction unfold for you

When I got logged into the auction, I was flush at RB and the guys got a great deal on Tom Brady relative to some other QB contracts. Brady is on a 3-year deal for $40 million (2013 salary of $12.5 million). I had an estimated bid for Brady at $18 million for 2013. Comparing to some of the other QB contracts (Kaepernick $41 million for 2 years; Newton $49 for 3; Rodgers $62 for 3, Luck north of $100 for 4), I was in good shape with this deal.

Can’t complain at all about the quality of the RB on the roster: Trent Richardson, Alfred Morris, Lamar Miller plus Le’Veon Bell from the rookie draft. My concern is too many dollars and, more importantly, too many years tied up at the RB position, which has the most annual turnover. Richardson has a 4-year, Morris a 3-year and Miller a 2-year. I am a believer in Morris – honestly, I wouldn’t have been willing to give him a 3-year otherwise – but there is still something unsettling about a 3-year deal on a Mike Shanahan RB, especially when he’s already used one of this good years.

I was definitely in catch-up mode when I got logged in, with quality players getting nominated one after the other. I can’t remember the last draft I was in where I didn’t have a running list of players crossed off my rankings, so I needed to take a good look through the available player lists to see how deep the remaining positions were, especially WR. To buy time, I added some kickers and defense to my queue, and I got them at a minimum contract.

WR were definitely getting thin for my needs having to fill 3-4 starter spots. I aggressively went after Vincent Jackson and Tony Gonzalez became a must-have on a one-year deal. I estimated his value at $17 million and got him for $13. I should have gone even more aggressive at WR but got a little gun shy with still many roster spots to fill. With WR bottoming out and some quality TE still available, I figured I would spend for better backups there who would likely man my flex starter spot, while taking a shotgun approach to the WR position trying to tag unheralded guys in situations with upside.

I stayed pretty close to my target of saving $10 million for in-season, but the way the auction unfolded, I should have spent more of that considering most guys did not save that much, and I can’t necessarily win any player I like off waivers given one team abandoned the auction at midnight and has $60 million in available cap space. A much better WR2 and this team would feel a lot better. As it stands, a RB for WR trade could be in the works either before the season starts, or once the NFL gets underway, but in that case we’ll need each of our RB to start the season strong.

Waldman’s Thoughts

I think the running back depth will work out in MacGregor’s favor because he will have great trade bait – especially if Andy Dalton plays well enough to sneak into the low-end of the top-10 and he can dangle a player like Tom Brady. My belief is that wide receivers are the easiest players to acquire. If MacGregor has the hardest position to get a quality player and winds up with four of them on his roster, he’ll be able to trade one of them easily for a good starter at his position of need. He might also get by with a tight end as a flex-option this year. Andre Roberts and Jeremy Kerley aren’t players you want as your No.2 and No.2 receivers at the beginning of the year, but they have the talent to provide sustainable production.

Best Deals (Millions in years)
If Brady truly is "bad WR-proof" he'll be a fine value even with MacGregor's long-term deal. Photo by Jeffrey Beall.
If Brady truly is “bad WR-proof” he’ll be a fine value even with MacGregor’s long-term deal. Photo by Jeffrey Beall.
  • Tom Brady: $40 for 3
  •  Tony Gonzalez: $13 for 1 – Compared to the 2013 salary for Jimmy Graham ($26) and Gronkowski ($18), happy to get Gonzo who looked absolutely stellar last season. He’s an ageless wonder.
  •  Trent Richardson: $97 for 4 – If you’re going to give a 4-year deal to a RB, this is the guy to give it to, and at a 2013 salary of only $21 he’s a great deal relative to what other top RB are being paid this season.
  •  Andy Dalton: $2 for 1 – I don’t love Andy Dalton for fantasy, but given the talent they’ve surrounded him with and his age I was shocked to land him as my backup for a mere $2.
Worst (Millions in years)
  • Christian Ponder: $2 for 2 – Did I really put a 2-year deal on Ponder? Geez, don’t remember that. Think I waited too long to use my last 2-year deal. At least a small dead cap hit next year if Ponder craps out.
  •  Alfred Morris: 47 for 3
  • Lamar Miller: $25 for 2 – I don’t mind either (Morris or Miller) deal individually, but I’d rather have the money or contract of one of these guys invested in any one of a bunch of wide receivers instead.
Good deals for other owners
  • (Matt Waldman) Cecil Shorts: $18.5 for 4 – I had to step away from the computer but definitely would have driven the price up on Shorts, although perhaps couldn’t compete with a 4-year deal.
  •  (Rivers McCown) Rueben Randle: $2.5 for 1 – Cheap for a young high upside player. Surprised no one dropped a multi-year deal on Randle at this price. Michael Floyd got a 4-year deal, Kendall Wright signed a 2-year.
  •  (Ryan McDowell) Josh Gordon: $19 for 3 – Like this kid and consider this a good deal over three years. We’ll see how the Browns’ QB play pans out.
Questionable deals for owners (IMHO)
According to MacGregor, Jim Day has great QB depth, but at a great cost photo by Football Schedule.
According to MacGregor, Jim Day has great QB depth, but at a great cost photo by Football Schedule.
  • (Lance Zierlein) Chris Ivory: $15.5 for 3 – Ivory screams stop-gap to me. Can’t imagine him paying off in Year 3 and I wouldn’t even feel comfortable with a 2-year deal.
  •  (Jim Day) Peyton Manning, $31.5 for 2 + Russell Wilson, $63.5 for 4 – A lot tied up in the QB position. Actually, really like the Manning contract, but can’t justify tying up this much cap for one starter spot. Some plans for wheeling and dealing perhaps, but Jim has no cap room, so he’s in a bad negotiating position.
  •  (Fontaine) Jordan Cameron: $5 for 1 – A big premium amongst of sea of TE with similar expectations. If he hits, great, but think the hype train got a hold of this bidding. On the plus side, Bryan landed Antonio Gates for a mere $1. Cheap bet for a bounce back from the former stud TE.

Fave team other than mine

I’m split between Tefertiller (he needs an RG3 recovery and a 2nd RB) and Fontaine (He believes in Pead, but I don’t really and he needs Bradshaw to sign and play big role). I love the starting wide receivers for each of these teams. I may have WR envy.

Impressions of Reality Sports Online

I Really like RSO. The website is clean and the overall auction runs well. I might not want to play in more than one RSO league, given the complexity and time involved. The auction is going to be long and there isn’t a way around that.  If you are doing a league like this, you want it to be fairly deep. (Editor’s note: As the commissioner of this league, I can tell you that if you draft 20 spots and keep the nomination and bid times at a minimum, you can finish in 3-4 hours, tops and if you adjust the number of multi-year contracts each team can award, you don’t need a deep league – it’s a flexible setup).

Heck, actually, I do already play in another dynasty with very similar contracts and rules. We use a combination of ESPN (for their auction software), MFL (to run the league in-season) and spreadsheet to track the contracts all year. Given that, I can see why these guys put together this website! [Last editor’s note: See what I’m talking about . . . ]

Short-term / Long-term View of Team

I love my team for this season. I would love to lobby for RB to be included in the flex position, but I know that is a non-starter with the Commish. Going to pray my RB stay healthy and productive (at least 3 of the 4) for the bulk of their contracts and then long-term should be in good shape. How rookies pan out will ultimately create separation between the top teams and bottom teams in the league, because they will be on cheap contracts. Liked my initial pick of Bell, but didn’t love the rest of my rookie draft.

Remember, if you go to www.realitysportsonline.com and use the promotion code RSP20%OFF, you’ll earn a 20 percent discount. You can join a league for $9.99 as an individual or form a league with your friends.

Reads Listens Views 5/24/13

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

I took a short hiatus from Reads Listens Views this month. It has nothing to do with the draft being done – I have a magazine assignment about the design of a 306,000 square-foot building at my day gig and a magazine to wrap up by June 15. If you’re new to the RSP blog, Reads Listens Views is a Friday feature that is my way of referring readers to other football writers, fantasy links, and things I found interesting away from the sport.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/JxpNyyoW9Vc]

I imagine it’s fun to brag when you played football with a future NFL star in high school or college. It’s just as fun to say you performed in college with a guy with talent of the magnitude to guest star on Herbie Hancock’s album and have Stevie Wonder be a guest on his. If you’re curious, I was in a horn section performing the Earth Wind and Fire tune September and Raul was doing a mean Phillip Bailey. Catch him if you can . . .

[youtube=http://youtu.be/j-AehUIQUrw]

Thank You

I’ll gradually begin increasing the volume of content as summer gets rolling. In the meantime, I’d like to thank those of you for purchasing the 2013 RSP publication. You support this blog, the publication, and you’re helping a great cause all in one.

If you haven’t bought the RSP before, I can say with pride that you’ll get as much out of it as I put into it – and I put everything I can into it. My readers will tell you they love it. If you’re on the fence, I am confident that you’ll realize this is one of those cases where there’s little hype to what I’m saying here. Plus, I donate 10 percent of each sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit whose mission is to prevent and combat sexual abuse through community training and awareness.

Download the RSP now and know that with your purchase, you also get access to the 2013 Post-Draft publication that comes with it. At the very least, follow this blog click on the link on the left to follow and you’ll receive email updates when I post new articles that give you a taste of the analysis and detail put into the RSP publication. Then consider supporting the site (and do yourself a favor at the same time) by downloading the publication.

Views

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1TMZASCR-I?rel=0&w=420&h=315]

The Little Metronome That Wouldn’t

Football Reads

If you’re not reading Chase Stuart, you should check out something of his at least once a week. He’ll tell you he learned under Pro-Football-Reference.com writer/originator Doug Drinen – and Drinen taught Stuart well. Football Perspective is Stuart’s site and one of my favorite sites that does statistical analysis.  He shows his work, the material is intellectually honest, and he approaches his studies with curiosity and a balanced scope and understanding that the sports analytics movement is just a chapter in the story and not the entire book.

Stuart knows about the game beyond the numbers and he’s a willing historian of eras that he may not have been witness to, but approaches with a reverence that makes his site one of the most enjoyable football blogs around. Here are three pieces that I think are well worth reading and learning whether you are a student of the game or a fantasy fanatic.

Non-Football Reads

DLF Writer Tim Stafford’s RSO Team

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Marshawn Lynch. Photo by Matt McGhee.
When you get Marshawn Lynch as one of two RBs that can be your RB1 on a keeper league, you did pretty well. Tim Stafford gets credit for doing so. Photo by Matt McGhee.

Tim Stafford (@dynastytim) is a writer at Dynasty League Football. He directs the forums at DLF and co-hosts the site’s podcast with Jarrett Behar. DLF is a quality site because of people like Stafford, Behar, and Ryan McDowell. Stafford and McDowell participated in the Reality Sports Online Auction Draft last weekend. I’m giving you my take of his team along with his own assessment.

First, here’s what Stafford had to say about his RSO experience:

I was very impressed by the RSO platform.  I know some people had some issues with the player list [Matt’s note: there were some bugs to work out when trying to nominate a player if you didn’t preset the nomination], but running it on Windows 7 with Chrome was flawless.  My favorite form of fantasy football is salary cap and this takes it to the next level.  Bidding simultaneously on the contract amount and length is very slick.  There was some strategy to when you burned your three and four-year contracts.  I’d easily recommend RSO to anyone who is considering starting a salary cap league.

I think Tim is dead-on. If there’s time, I’m going to set up an IDP league with this format. I probably won’t cover it here, but I enjoyed this format too much to just be in one league with it. If you go to www.realitysportsonline.com and use the promotion code RSP20%OFF, you’ll earn a 20 percent discount. You can join a league for $9.99 as an individual or form a league with your friends.

Stafford’s Squad 

Quarterback Yrs $ Running Back Yrs $ Wide Receiver Yrs $
Tony Romo 3 28.5 Marshawn Lynch 2 40.5 Randall Cobb 4 73.5
Matt Schaub 1 2.5 C.J. Spiller 3 75.0 Wes Welker 2 21.0
Tim Tebow 1 0.5 Mike Goodson 1 0.5 Sidney Rice 2 7.5
      Evan Royster 1 0.1 Greg Little 1 2.5
      Taiwan Jones 1 0.5 Santonio Holmes 1 4.0
      Montee Ball 3 R Ryan Broyles 1 3.5
      Mike Gillislee 3 R Leonard Hankerson 1 4.0
      Denard Robinson 3 R Dexter McCluster 1 0.5
      Kenjon Barner 3 R Andrew Hawkins 1 0.5
            Lestar Jean 1 0.5
            Damian Williams 1 0.5
            Quinton Patton 3 R

I think Stafford used his multi-year deals well. Lynch and Spiller and 2 and 3-year deals are sensible windows of time to tie up a running back. Anything more than three years could be too ambitious for the NFL. Both players are capable of top-five production and I think it’s realistic to expect both runners to have RB1 seasons in 2013. Combine this running back duo with a solid QB1 like Tony Romo – another good choice to give a three-year deal – and a four-year deal to Randall Cobb, and I think these four acquisitions were money well-spent. These four players – if healthy – give Stafford a competitive team.

The two-year, $21 million deal to Welker is a probably a good deal. There is the element of a gamble in the sense of a new situation and how much production will the veteran really have with Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker also in the Broncos lineup, but we’ve seen Peyton Manning deliver 1000-yard seasons to three receivers multiple times in the quarterback’s career. I’d be shocked if Welker doesn’t deliver two years of at least 65-70 receptions – and probably one of them will be a season of 80-90 catches.

A two-year deal for Sidney Rice could also be criticized as “iffy,” but at $7.5 million total I would categorize any flak that Stafford gets as nitpicking. Because we get to franchise one player each year, it’s the one-year deals that teams chose to make that are most fascinating to me.

Ryan Broyles is a good example on Stafford’s team. I love what Broyles brings to the table as a route runner with big-play ability. However, his 2013 season won’t begin until November. I can see Stafford franchising Broyles if the Detroit receiver flashes what he did briefly from his first return from an ACL injury in November of 2012. Still, the amount of money to invest in a franchise tag on a receiver with a handful of games could be a tough call.

Still, I like upside picks on one-year deals and I think Stafford did well to take players like Leonard Hankerson, Greg Little, Mike Goodson, Dexter McCluster, and Santonio Holmes, who all have the talent to outperform current expectations and be considerations for that one franchise offer in 2014.

Paired with Lynch, Spiller gives Stafford a sound 1-2 punch for his starting lineup. Photo by Matt Britt
Paired with Lynch, Spiller gives Stafford a sound 1-2 punch for his starting lineup. Photo by Matt Britt

Here’s what Stafford had to say about some of these players:

I was happy to start off by winning Spiller and Lynch – especially Lynch – $40.5 million over two years.  Compare that to Charles who went off right before Lynch at $60.5 million over two years.  I view Lynch as a solid RB1 for the next several years.  Paired with Spiller, I think I have a solid one two punch. 

Since I also have Ball from the rookie draft, I felt I was fairly set at RB in a league where you start two.  I’m also hopeful about my rookie RBs – Ball and Gillislee.  If Gillislee somehow beats out Lamar Miller I’ll be able to trade one of them for a nice WR upgrade.< /p>

This allowed me to focus my attention and money elsewhere.  I got a little nervous after I took Romo as my third player – this league requires a lot of starting WRs.  I forced it a bit on Cobb and then went in to WR by committee mode taking a total of 12.  I think grabbing Welker was a decent move in an SC league.  He’s someone I’d avoid in traditional dynasty but short-term rentals are fine in this format. 

I ended up overpaying for a couple of WRs later in the auction. I had money left and the pool was thinning.  Broyles at $3.5 for one year isn’t worth it, nor is Hankerson at $4 million.  But as I mentioned above I needed bodies. 

I think Gillislee is a nice runner who plays with the type of intensity one seeks from an NFL starter. I think the drafting of Gillislee is (not intentionally as I’m stating it) a message to Lamar Miller to keep working and notice to Daniel Thomas that he hopefully was working hard to prepare for a fight for his spot on the depth chart in 2013.

Miller makes the Broncos a good pick as a team defense. Photo by Jeffery Beall.
Miller makes the Broncos a good pick as a team defense. Photo by Jeffery Beall.
Tight End Yrs $ Kicker Yrs $ Defense Yrs $
Owen Daniels 1 4.0 Jay Feely 1 0.5 Denver 1 0.5
Brandon Pettigrew 1 0.5       Dallas 1 0.5
James Casey 1 1.0            

I think Stafford went the safe route on tight ends. Daniels has top-five upside, but just barely. However, he’s as close to a lock as a top-10 tight end in fantasy leagues as one can get. Pettigrew is a disappointing fantasy player based on his potential. I’m not saying he should be a an elite tight end, but I think his physical skills and this Detroit offense should translate to production that is similar to Daniels’ upside rather than sitting outside the top-10 in healthy years.

If you’ve read my blog for any length of time then you know I’m a fan of James Casey’s potential. The beginning of the Chip Kelly era in Philly is a development I’m eager to see. The reason Kelly has Casey, Brent Celek, Clay Harbor, and Zach Ertz is that this up-tempo offense uses multiple tight ends to foil his opponents’ attempts at gap control.

This doesn’t always translate into great receiving production at the position, but there may be enough opportunities for one player in this group to emerge as a fantasy option. I’m not counting on Casey to be the one, but if injury strikes to the depth chart then Casey has upside. I’m not sure I would have picked him in a league like this because unless it’s clear he’ll be the man to own before the first week of the season, he’ll most likely present diminishing returns.

Denver’s defense is a nice option for the minimum price. The league awards points for sacks, turnovers, and points score and Denver’s unit should be in a good position to play aggressor most weeks – especially in an AFC West that is now a weak division on paper.

Stafford didn’t have any comments about this part of his roster, but he did talk about other deals that teams made in the auction that I think are worth mentioning. Amounts mentioned are in increments of millions

Good Deals

  • Ryan McDowell – Josh Gordon ($19 over 3):  Gordon could become a high end WR2.  If that happens this was a steal.
  • Mike MacGregor -Tom  Brady ($40 over 3): This was a steal and happened because seven or eight teams already had QBs at this point and let it happen.  We probably should have price enforced a bit here.  But that’s a risky proposition.
  • Sigmund Bloom – Martellus Bennett ($0.5 over 1):  Great player to get early in the auction at league minimum.  Not sure how he pulled this one on us.
  • Jeff Tefertiller – Brandon Marshall ($60 over 4): Terrific value.  Marshall at about 10% of his cap, yes sir.

Deals Stafford Didn’t Like

  • Lance Zierlein – Colin Kaepernick ($41 over 2):  This seemed rather pricey to me.  Compare this to Drew Brees at ($30 over 2).
  • Ryan McDowell – Andrew Luck ($103 over 4): Same thing. This is way too rich for my blood.  This is a bet that Luck will be a top-5 QB in 2013 and beyond.  Maybe/maybe not.
  • Rivers McCown – Josh Freeman ($3.5 over 1):  Not really much money of course, but Freeman isn’t my cup of tea.  If I’m going to draft a back-up QB I’d like to get one with either some upside (i.e. Locker/Tannehill) or one that is the surefire starter (i.e. Schaub).

Personally, I don’t see much wrong with Freeman. I doubt Mike Glennon is a threat to Freeman this year. I agree that Kaepernick and Luck earned higher contracts than I would have paid, but I’m a Luck fan so if I were to go bold with a passer I’d pay that premium on the Colts quarterback. McDowells also stole Gordon. I nominated Gordon as the first player off the board in the auction. I wish I hadn’t.

McDowell’s team was Stafford’s favorite:

His projected starting lineup is Luck, CJ2K/Mendy, Nicks/Gordon/James Jones/Blackmon, Housler.  He’ll have to shuck and jive until Blackmon returns and he needs Housler to break out, but this is potentially a very nice team for the long haul.  He also has Gio Bernard in the wings.  And he has good options to replace Blackmon short-term.

More analysis of this draft coming in the next 4-6 weeks. Remember, if you go to www.realitysportsonline.com and use the promotion code RSP20%OFF, you’ll earn a 20 percent discount. You can join a league for $9.99 as an individual or form a league with your friends.

RSO Writers League: Site Review and My Draft

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
I'd start my fantasy season with Calvin Johnson, wouldn't you? Photo by Mike Morbeck.
Start your fantasy season with Calvin Johnson? How about signing him to a two-year deal? Even better. Find out where you can do it online and no Excel needed.  Photo by Mike Morbeck.

This weekend I donned the commissioner hat of a fantasy league for the first time in six years. This is no run-of-the-mill league. Not only are the owners an extraordinary group of fantasy writers, but Reality Sports Online’s style of game and draft application is taking fantasy football in a direction I want to go.

Sigmund Bloom equated the process to an expedition to undiscovered territory. Thanks to your’s truly, who opted to have each team sign 25 players in the free agent auction it felt like a never-ending quest. Fortunately, there were no fatalities and most of our adventurers made it to the end. The overwhelming sentiment was that they relished the journey.

I believe if you’re the type of fantasy owner who reads my work or the work of guys in the league below, you’ll relish what RSO has to offer. Today, I’m covering the start-up process of this league, providing my takes on each team, and reviewing the RSO site and application.

In subsequent posts, I’m going to profile the rest of the teams.

Taking the Plunge with Reality Sports Online’s Front Office Format (Salary Cap-Keeper-Dynasty -Contract-Auction Format)

Have you ever learned a skill that appears more daunting than it actually is? My wife has a good example – installing tile. She’s been tiling kitchens and bathrooms for years – it was even a part of what she did when she owned her own business.

At first, the idea of getting these individual pieces on a wall at the appropriate level and coordination of color seemed difficult to her when thinking about how few mistakes one can make during this process. But a little front-end preparation revealed it was a lot easier than she imagined.

RSO’s format can have that kind of feel at first and the learning curve seems a lot steeper than it really is. Once you spend a few minutes learning the rules and trying out the draft room, you realize the process is not only intuitive, but it might be one of the most promising ways to run a league that I have seen yet.

To use a more dramatic example of RSO’s learning curve, I immediately thought of Bud (played by Ed Harris) from the movie The Abyss when he dons a tricked-out deep-sea diving helmet that requires him to breathe liquid:

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b338ZWuYsJ0?rel=0&w=560&h=315]

There’s an initial fear factor, but then it’s a lot more natural than you’d expect. The reason is many of you hardcore owners are doing contract or keeper leagues now, but spending time keeping up with your own spreadsheets and calculations. RSO is among the first I’ve seen that are doing it for you.

There are a few kinks to work out to make the RSO platform a little more flexible when it comes to setting up pre-draft lists and adding players to a nomination queue, but I have tried numerous auction sites over the years and the application on the whole is intuitive, smooth, and had no breakdowns. Try a league at RSO and use the promotion code RSP20%OFF to earn a 20 percent discount.

RSO won the FSTA’s 2012 Rookie of the Year Award and was a Finalist for the Most Innovative Product Award. I get the vibe that these guys are working hard to make the product the best it can be and they appear open and responsive to feedback.

The Basics

RSO is a league management fantasy football website runs keeper leagues that operate with contract values that mimic the NFL’s system. The site owners are former NFL employees – one of them helped run a team’s cap. I think I can boil down the details to keep it simple:

  • Each team is given approximately $123 million in cap space (the number moves each year with the NFL cap).
  • Leagues can be a wide variety of sizes: Offense w/team defense or IDP.
  • Every year there is a rookie draft (serpentine) and free agent auction draft that is completed in one sitting.*
  • There are three basic contract types:
    • A standard, three-year or four-year deal for your rookie draft picks based on the draft order (contract settings determined by commissioner).
    • A standard, one-year deal as determined by the winning bid in a free agent auction.
    • Three types of multi-year contracts that your league can determine how many each team can offer:
      • Four-year
      • Three-year
      • Two-year
  • The site manages trades and free agency according to the cap and it’s all automated.

The multi-year contracts and the auction is what seems harder than it really is. The auction room tracks how much cap room you have and what it’s going to cost you to win a player. One you use all your multi-year deals, the site only allows you to bid with one-year deals. It’s also encouraged that you save $5-$10 million of your $123 million for drop/adds.

Once you see how it all flows, it’s really just a facet of what makes RSO’s league format something I want to try again and again.

*We got the benefit of doing a slow rookie draft due to the schedules of our writers but after using the application, we could have easily done everything in one night if we had 20-man rosters and shorter nomination and bid times.
Pick rookies with a snake draft, sign the rest like the NFL - free agency at Reality Sports Online. Photo by John Martinez-Paviliga
Pick rookies with a snake draft, sign the rest like the NFL – free agency at Reality Sports Online. Photo by John Martinez-Paviliga

Contract/Auction Strategy

A good example of this contract strategy in play is how an owner chooses to award its multi-year deals. Some owners will regard a stud like Calvin Johnson as player they will try to sign with a four-year deal. This makes sense: the longer the deal, the less money paid per year and the easier it is on your cap room if Johnson continues to have the same quality career for the next four years.

The risk is if Johnson gets hurt or under performs. Then you’re in a deal that’s costing you money over the next four years and you’ll still have some of this money on your books during that time even if you cut Johnson. All of this is calculated for you on the site, so it’s not something you have to dwell on until it’s time to start thinking about roster moves. You don’t have to be a capologist to play this game, but it spells out the details so you feel like you’re one.

Another strategy could be to sign young, ascending talents to long-term deals. Perhaps you love T.Y. Hilton’s game or you think Russell Wilson is about to reach Drew Brees territory and you want to sign them at a minimal cost and hope they become studs after you locked them into a bargain rate. Of course, the risk is they never take that next step and you’ve tied up mediocre talent.

These contracts become more important when making trades, dropping/adding players, and how much money you have available for future rookie drafts and free agent auctions. This is where RSO’s format takes on some of the realism of the NFL.

Let’s say Michael Floyd has a break-out year opposite Larry Fitzgerald now that Carson Palmer is in Arizona and Bruce Arians drafted a couple of guards. If a team only signed Floyd to a 1-year deal, they might not be able to afford to get him back in 2014 and could lose him to a team with a lot of cap room at that point.

Waldman’s RSO Writer’s League Strategy: Rookie Draft and Free Agent Auction

Here’s the basics about this 14-team league:

Scoring Basics

  • PPR w/a 1-point bonus after 10 receptions
  • 4 pts/Pass TD; 6 pts/Rush-Rec TDs
  • Points bonuses at 100, 150, and 200 yards rushing and receiving
  • Points bonuses at 300, 350, and 400 yards passing
  • Penalties for interceptions

Roster, Draft, and Cap/Contract Basics

  • Starting lineups: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (WR/TE), 1 DEF, 1 K
  • 30 Roster spots and 3 IR spots
  • Five-round, serpentine rookie draft (no trades)
  • Each team has the following number of multi-year contracts available in the Free Agent Auction Draft
    • 4-year Free Agency Contracts (1)
    • 3 -year Free Agency Contracts (2)
    • 2 -year Free Agency Contracts (3)
    • 1-year contracts (19)
  • Note: rookie contracts in the serpentine draft are all three-year deals at a tiered value according to draft spot. Rookie contracts offered in the free agency draft are “free agent deals,” which means it can be a multi-year deal or a one-year deal based on bid.

I had the eight-spot in this 14-team rookie draft and I stuck close to the RSP Post-Draft playbook with one major exception:

  • 1.08 – WR Keenan Allen
  • 2.07 – WR Da’Rick Rogers
  • 3.08 – WR Marquess Wilson
  • 4.07 – TE Luke Willson
  • 5.08 – QB Sean Renfree

While RSO allows for a third running back as a flex-play in its league setup options, I personally dislike it. There’s something that goes against my football aesthetic when I see fantasy leagues with a third running back. I play in them all the time, but since this was “my” league I got to make the rules.

The strategic influence of this wrinkle to starting lineups is that receiver and tight end depth become a little more important if thinking long-term. On the one hand, running backs tend to make a bigger impact early so I can see how drafting backs makes more sense in a league like this because at least you get a year or two of strong production from a top-end runner before they become free agents and the market value sky-rockets. Receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks might take a few years and never deliver a return on investment with your squad.

As I finish writing this last paragraph I wonder if I didn’t make a mistake to take running backs with Lacy, Lattimore, Franklin, and Stacy all on the board. However, those were the only backs left in the first round who I felt have a strong chance to make an impact in the first three seasons and not enough to dislodge me from Allen.

Rogers has the kind of upside to render draft status useless. Photo by Wade Rackley.
Rogers has the kind of upside to render draft status useless. Photo by Wade Rackley.

Rookie Thoughts

Keenan Allen: This is a PPR league with yards and reception bonuses and I think Allen has the type of versatile skill set to see a lot of targets from the slot, but also used on the perimeter. I regard Allen as a player similar to Michael Crabtree, but with more upside due to his quarterback. All apologies to Colin Kapernick, who is a promising young player, but Phillip Rivers is a better down field passer and at this point a savvier quarterback.  The San Diego offense under Mike McCoy should feature enough short passing for Allen to provide quality fantasy production this year. As a player whose draft stock was littered with risk, I see Allen as one of the safer picks in this draft class.

Da’Rick Rogers: Once Travis Kelce and Stedman Bailey left with the picks just ahead of me, I opted for the upside of Rogers. Steve Johnson’s recurrent groin issues and the lack of quality receivers in this depth chart before the 2013 NFL Draft make this a nice landing spot for the rookie. Rogers reminds me of a mix of Dwayne Bowe and Terrell Owens. If Rogers even approaches these comps, I have a player with 70-catch potential and the skills to be the most productive receiver on this Bills team. I think Robert Woods is a better technician and will see the most time this year among the rookies if Johnson can stay healthy. However, Johnson’s leg issue could open the door for Rogers in 2014 if the rookie behaves.

Marquess Wilson: There’s a common theme with my first three picks. All three are wide receivers with first- or second-round talent who slid due to factors outside game film study in the pre-draft evaluation process. At just 20 years of age, Wilson will have three years of NFL experience by the time most players his age get drafted. My hope is that Wilson doesn’t break my heart by coming into his own late in year three when I can’t reap any return on him. I think he’s a great fit for Jay Cutler and capable of stepping into the starting lineup this year if called upon. I love his ability to adjust to the ball. He makes a lot of tough catches and can play outside or in the slot due to his quickness. If he can take this difficult year and turn it into a learning experience, he could be the most productive receiver I drafted on this list. I think Marc Trestman and the Bears have similar sentiments.

Luke Willson: Wilson fits the athletic profile of tight end capable of developing into a primary contributor in fantasy leagues.   His 4.5-speed the body of an in-line tight end is every bit as promising as his Rice teammate Vance McDonald, but an ankle injury prevented Willson from making the same impression on NFL teams last year. He made an early impact in mini camp and at this point, I decided to take the chance on Willson’s prospects of developing into a high-end TE1 rather than settling for prospects at the position that I rated higher, but have less upside.

Sean Renfree: Admittedly this probably a wasted pick.  Renfree and Wilson are why I wish I opted for four-year contracts for rookies instead of three. I think the Duke quarterback has the skills to earn the No.2 role in Atlanta this year if he can return from a torn pectoral muscle by July. If not, I still think he can do enough to earn the No.3 spot and work his way into the backup role by 2014. I’m banking on a chance for Renfree to showcase his wares in preseason or a Matt Ryan injury so Renfree can attract a market once he becomes a free agent. I also planned to take Matt Ryan but I execute as well as I should and Football Diehards owner Bob Harris earn Ryan at a steal.  More below.

Pre-Auction Strategy

The running joke in the auction chat room was that by the time we figured out the best ways to approach this league, we’d be halfway through the auction and without the funds to do anything about it.  Looking back at my pre-auction strategy I would say my experience was not the same. I had a good clue, but my poor analysis of my cap hindered my execution.

With just one, four-year deal I hoped to spend it on a quarterback. They have the longest fantasy lifespan of any position and it made the most sense to anchor a high-end starter at that position to my roster for multiple years. The two players I decided to target were Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson. If I could land one at a reasonable price with my four-year deal, I’d feel great about the long-term outlook of my team.

I also wanted one stud at running back and wide receiver signed to a deal of no less than a two-years so my team can have a chance to remain competitive as my one-year contracts turn over in 2014 and my rookies continue to develop. These are the two positions I hoped to acquire the most depth – especially at receiver. I believe wide outs are the easiest to trade and I want to afford myself flexibility to make deals.

As for executing an auction for your team, there are three basic ways to do it:

  • Studs and Duds: Spend a high percentage of cap on a few big-name starters and then pay the minimum for a supporting cast and depth. This is the most aggressive approach. I won three writers leagues in two years with this technique but its name would be more apt as Studs or Duds because it’s often either/or as a team outcome with this approach.
  • Middle of the Road: This technique is about setting hard budgets for players and pacing yourself. You don’t go over certain bid amounts. The downside is you rarely land the known studs, but the upside is that you acquire quality depth and spread a number of viable options across your starting lineup. If your fantasy performers demonstrate week-to-week consistency at a high level, you have a winner.
  • Control the End: My friend, Footballguys.com co-owner, and one-time, regular auction competitor David Dodds loves to wait until the rest of the league has spent enough of its cap for him to maintain control of the auction and win the discount deals – and there are always enough – to build a quality team. Dodds loves to talk ridiculous trash to his competition. It’s a common joke among those of us who draft with him that he’s still picking from his top-50 list 200 picks into a draft.

Personally, I try to incorporate a mix of the first two methods. I aim for at least two studs and then opt for mid-level starters – mid-range WR2s and RB2s, and low-end QB1s and TE1s – hoping that half of them have strong years. Then I try to stay patient long enough to have some money at the end and pick a few late-round hopefuls with high upside.

The problem with auction drafts is that I don’t do them as much as I’d like. They are by far my favorite form of league, but time constraints limit me from joining new leagues. If I can convince half of my leagues to adopt this format, I’d be pleased.

Until then, I don’t get as much practice with auctions as I’d like and there are pitfalls I have to be especially careful to avoid:

  • Impulse Buying: It’s easy to get an itchy trigger finger in the opening 50 picks when you see stud after stud coming off the board and you have all of your money in your pocket. I don’t mind paying premium for a couple of players, but when a “couple” is used casually to mean “3 or 4” you can derail your strategy really fast.
  • Trigger Shyness: For me, this happens when I don’t feel clear about player value once the bidding comes down to me and another owner over a player. A couple of seconds of hesitation can cost you a good deal despite a bidding war that seems to go on for minutes at a time.
  • Sticking It to Yourself: One of my favorite aspects about auction leagues is watching owners engage in the practice of increasing the bid on players to police other owners from earning deep discounts. Jim Day and Chad Parsons’ were the best at this on Friday night. They jacked up bid after bid, but made deft exits at the right time to make sure their opponents paid at least what the player was worth – if not more. The danger is that if you pick the wrong player to enforce this strategy, you can get stuck with a guy you don’t want.

In an auction with fantasy writers these practices can get magnified if you’re not careful. Especially with wily vets like Bob Harris, who claims he’s never drafted in an auction league. The Hall of Fame fantasy writer (yes, there is such a distinction) is not a shark as much as he’s a spider with a lair somewhere in the southwest. He spins a really pretty web . . .

Bob Harris stole Matt Ryan and I was the Keystone Cops. Photo by Football Schedule.
Bob Harris stole Matt Ryan and I was the Keystone Cops. Photo by Football Schedule.

My Auction 

I won’t know until I dig deeper into the rest of the rosters, but at first glance I feel better about my team than I did during the auction. I made three mistakes during my draft – one from each category above – and I nearly hamstrung my efforts. Yet, I pulled out some solid deals in the mid-to-late rounds. Perhaps my marathon film study sessions helped me as my competition get sharper as others faded into the night.  Probably not, but it sounds good.

I will be profiling other teams soon. Here are links to the league’s rosters and the auction results. For the info displayed below The contract amount is in increments of millions.  The “R” next to player’s names is for “reserve” a designation based on my potential starting lineup. If there is an “R” in the $ box then it means they were a rookie draft pick with a designated salary by spot in the serpentine draft.

Quarterback Yrs $ Running Back Yrs $ Wide Receiver Yrs $
Jay Cutler (CHI) 1 4.0 Arian Foster (HOU) 2 51.0 Calvin Johnson (DET) 2 69.5
Carson Palmer (ARI) R 1 3.0 Steven Jackson (ATL) 1 16.5 Cecil Shorts (JAC) 4 18.5
Alex Smith (KC) R 2 2.5 Ryan Williams (ARI) R 1 2.5 DeSean Jackson (PHI) 3 10.5
Sean Renfree (ATL) R 3 R Ben Tate (HOU) R 3 7.5 Keenan Allen (SD) 3 R
Alex Green (GB) R 1 0.5 LaVon Brazill (IND) R 1 0.5
Shaun Draughn (KC) R 1 0.5 Marvin Jones (CIN) R 1 1.0
Cedric Peerman (CIN) R 1 0.5 Domenik Hixon (CAR) R 1 0.5
Bobby Rainey (BAL) R 1 0.5 Earl Bennett (CHI) R 1 0.5
Marquess Wilson (CHI) R 3 R
Da’Rick Rogers (BUF) R 3 R
Kenbrell Thompkins (NE) R 1 0.5

Quarterbacks

Here’s where I made the biggest auction gaffe for my team. I got into a bidding war with Bob Harris for Matt Ryan. Mike MacGregor recently acquired Tom Brady with a three-year deal for $40 million. I’d say a deal that comes out at a little more than $13.3 million per year for Brady is a strong buy – even at Brady’s age.

As the competition dropped to the wayside on Ryan, Harris and I were creeping north of $30 million and I hesitated on Ryan’s value. I didn’t have a clear cut-off on Ryan. Was it too much? Clock ticking . . . Didn’t Brady go off the board for more? Clock ticking . . .What was that amount again? 4 . . . 3 . . . Should I use a four-year or three-year deal? 2 . . .

I click the four-year deal, but not in enough time and Harris signs Ryan – perhaps the quarterback in the NFL with the best mix of consistency, years left, upside, and surrounding talent in the league for a paltry $31.5 million for 3 years.

Steal.

I’m a little upset with myself at this point, but Russell Wilson is still left in the auction. The problem is that the next owner smartly nominates Russell Wilson immediately after Harris nabs Ryan, which means Wilson is now in a pool with a bunch of owners who just woke up and realized they let Ryan go off the board for a song.

I realized right after losing the Ryan bid that I was willing to pay $14-15 million per year for the Falcons quarterback so I will probably have to pay at least that much for Wilson based on what just happened. Sure enough the bidding comes down to me and Officer Jim Day of the RSO Writers League Bidding Police Precinct 411.

Within seconds Day and I raise Wilson’s price from $9 million per year to $12 million and climbing. When we reach $15 million per year – alternating with 3- and 4-year offers – I’m stretching beyond my comfort zone because I already spent big money on two other players. Ultimately, I decided to stand down on Wilson and Day landed the Seahawk as his backup to Peyton Manning with a 4-year deal at $63.5 million (total).

Day will have trade bait with that four-year deal if he wants to dangle it. So I opted for plan B – a quarterback by committee with two players I think have a realistic shot at low-end QB1 production and the talent to deliver even more to fantasy owners if the offensive lines improve: Jay Cutler and Carson Palmer for a combined $7 million. While it’s half the price of Wilson – it’s conceivable I get half the quarterback play, too.

Still, I feel good about what’s happening in Chicago with Marc Trestman as the architect and I like the possibilities the Cardinals have with Palmer, Floyd, Fitzgerald, and most important, the upgrades along the offensive line.  I wish I didn’t have to talk about Alex Smith, but “what had happened was . . . ” I tried to increase the bid on Smith early and realized I was doing so with Alex Smith.

Don’t get me wrong, Palmer and Cutler could get hurt by mid season if the Bears and Cardinals offensive lines revert to recent form so Smith could be useful. I also paid a whopping $2 million for 2 years. It may not be what I meant to do, but it was a minor mistake compared to letting Matt Ryan slip in the dark of night to Harris.

cropped-troy-polamalu-by-karen-blaha1.jpg

Running Backs

I had to nab a stud here. I could have gone with a younger guy with upside, but decided I didn’t want to be a part of a bidding war for Trent Richardson or Doug Martin. Football Outsiders writer Rivers McCown nabbed Martin for a reasonable $67.5 million for 3 years, paying somewhere around $22 million of his current year cap as guaranteed money for 2013. This actually looked like a nice deal  compared to what Jason Wood shelled out for Adrian Peterson – a two-year signing for $71 million.

It was on the heels of that Peterson deal that Arian Foster hit the block and instead of trying to slow roll the bid a little higher and hope I got a deal, I decided to go strong to the hole and hope my competition would hesitate. My competition was still messing around with contracts for $4 million when I upped the number to a two-year, $40 million deal.

If I remember correctly, most of the bids dropped out and after the next competing bid that inched skyward of $41 million, I came hard over the top again with $50 and wound up winning at 2 years, $51 million for Foster. Not a great deal compared to Martin or even Mike MacGregor’s, 4-year $97 million signing of Trent Richardson at a little less per year for twice the tenure, but Harris has a two-year deal on Jamaal Charles for $60.5 million and Tim Stafford has C.J. Spiller at 3 years, $75 million.

I can live with what I paid for Foster – especially for two years.

Steven Jackson at one year for $16.5 million seems pricey for his recent performances in St. Louis, but if you think he still has the juice for at least one more year then he’s at least as skilled as Michael Turner – the Atlanta runner, who had at least 1300 yards and double-digit touchdowns in three of his four seasons between 2009-2011.

I’ll pay $16.5 million for that kind of production. Heck, I’ll pay it for top-20 production for one year and that’s what Turner delivered last year despite a more pass happy system and operating at a step slower than he appeared in the past.

Ben Tate fortunately didn’t get added to the block right after Foster joined my team or else I probably would have to pay a little more. As Lance Zierlein noted, getting Tate at three years, $7.5 million is a nice deal considering that he’ll be a free agent in 2014. I’m not a huge Tate fan, but I have to agree.

Few backs move to a new team in recent years and become studs. Michael Turner, Marshawn Lynch, and Reggie Bush come to mind and they are the minority.  However, even if Tate joins a committee the price is still good value.

Ryan Williams’ stock is at rock bottom. He’s coming off his second injury in two years and Bruce Arians named Rashard Mendenhall the starter. Still, Williams  has starter talent. Arizona’s upgrades make me feel like I could get $2.5 million dollar’s worth (at least) from a finally healthy Williams as my second back off the bench.

Alex Green is a cheap option who still has a chance to make the team. We’ll see if he’s finally healthy enough to compete at the level he’s capable. Shaun Draughn surprised me last year. I saw him at North Carolina and thought he was a good, but not great college runner. He looks a lot quicker than I remember from his days in Chapel Hill. He might still give the Chiefs competition a run for that No.2 spot. Cedric Peerman and Bobby Rainey are two players I believe have the talent, but lack the opportunity.

I just realized I have three receivers from Cal on my squad. DeSean Jackson needs to play to that form to help me contend. Photo by Avinashkunnath.
I just realized I have three receivers from Cal on my squad. DeSean Jackson needs to play to that form to help me contend. Photo by Avinashkunnath.

Wide Receiver

I probably overpaid for Calvin Johnson. My deal came on the heels of Lance Zierlein giving up $92.5 million for three years. I should have resisted, but I admit that I got impulsive with the prospect of having Johnson on my team. He has been a top-five fantasy receiver for three straight years, he’s been the top fantasy receiver overall for two years straight (even with only 5 touchdowns in 2012), and he’s winning against triple coverage. He’ll be 28 in September. If there’s a player in a PPR league worth this kind of money, Johnson is it.

Although I paid a premium for the best wide receiver in football I did have some pleasant surprises in the middle rounds. My four-year deal went to a player I didn’t anticipate signing: Cecil Shorts. A polarizing player in the fantasy community, Shorts has big-play skills but spotty quarterback play has some people down on the receiver’s future. Chase Stuart gives a balanced opinion with the stats and some context to the numbers. At 4 years, $18.5 million I paid for a young player with high-end No.2 upside without a good quarterback at a No.3 receiver price point.

I also think DeSean Jackson could be a steal at $10.5 million over 3 years. I’m not chest-thumping this signing yet, because he hasn’t had starter numbers since 2011 and he hasn’t truly played like one since 2010. If he an return to 2009-2010 form, I’ll have a formidable corps at a bargain – even with Calvin Johnson.

Bryan Fontaine has one of my favorite receiving trios in this league: Dwayne Bowe, Larry Fitzgerald, and Dez Bryant for a total of $108.5 million. My trio has the potential to match that production as a unit at a $10 million savings. I also have two of my deals of at least three years whereas Fontaine only has one deal over two years. I’m not trying to tell you that my corps is better than Fontaine’s group, but I’m not as far away as it appears on paper.

Domenik Hixon is skilled enough to win the slot job in Carolina and even outplay Brandon LaFell. The rest of my wideouts are RSP favorites with chances to earn playing time this year: Marvin Jones, LaVon Brazill, and Earl Bennett all have potential to contribute and they’re excellent players with the ball in the air.

Can't go wrong with this VD. Photo by The Bay Area Bias.
Can’t go wrong with this VD even if I went wrong with Smith. Photo by The Bay Area Bias.
Tight End Yrs $ Kicker Yrs $ Defense Yrs $
Vernon Davis (SF) 1 8.0 Sebastian Janikowski (OAK) 1 0.5 Seattle 1 2.5
Dwayne Allen (IND) R 1 2.5 Robbie Gould (CHI) R 1 0.5 Detroit 1 0.5
Luke Willson (SEA) R 3 R

Tight Ends, Kickers, and Defenses

If Vernon Davis produces like he did during the 2012 season, I overpaid. If Davis plays like has in the postseason, I’ll have a bargain. I think he’s the best all-around tight end in football, but he doesn’t get the chance to show it as a receiver due to quarterback play. Hopefully Kaepernick continues to find Davis like he did in January. I’m a Dwayne Allen fan and I believe he’ll provide good bye-week value.

Janikowski and Gould are like the Odd Couple. One is on a team that might have trouble scoring but can boot it from 60 yards. The other lacks great range, but should see more opportunities due to the offense. I’ll roll with these two for a total of $1 million.

I paid about twice as much for Seattle than I wanted, but it’s another case of paying for value. Detroit is my bye-week option.

Team Outlook

I’m not going to say my team is a great contender. If I got Matt Ryan or Russell Wilson I think I’d feel a little more confident. As it stands, I think my team is in the middle of the pack. The upside of I think Johnson, Foster, and Steven Jackson will keep me competitive as long as I get similar play from Cecil Shorts and Vernon Davis at their best stretches of 2012. If Cutler, Palmer, or DeSean Jackson play to their potential I’ll have a real shot.

Stay tuned this week for more analysis of RSO teams and try a league. Use the promotion code RSP20%OFF to earn a 20 percent discount.

Reality Sports Online Writers Keeper-Contract League

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
How much would you pay for A.J. Green in a Contract-Auction-Dynasty League? Photo by Football Schedule.
How much would you pay for A.J. Green in a Contract-Auction-Dynasty League? Photo by Football Schedule.

Over the course of the next year, I have accepted the opportunity to start a unique league with a rookie snake draft and a free agent auction. Today, we’re kicking off a five-round rookie draft. The cool thing about this league is that the contract and cap mimics the NFL. In fact the owners of this site –Reality Sports Online – were both former employees of an NFL team. One was the capologist and the other legal representation. They’ve built an award-winning site that distills a process that takes 2-3 months in the NFL into a matter of hours.

The RSO Writers League is a 14-team, contract/keeper/salary cap format. Here are more basics about the league. Start your own league and get a discount when you use this coupon code: RSP20%OFF

Scoring Basics

  • PPR w/a 1-point bonus after 10 receptions
  • 4 pts/Pass TD; 6 pts/Rush-Rec TDs
  • Points bonuses at 100, 150, and 200 yards rushing and receiving
  • Points bonuses at 300, 350, and 400 yards passing
  • Penalties for interceptions

Roster, Draft, and Cap/Contract Basics

  • Starting lineups: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (WR/TE), 1 DEF, 1 K
  • 30 Roster spots and 3 IR spots
  • Five-round, serpentine rookie draft (no trades)
  • $123 million cap
  • Each team has the following number of multi-year contracts available in the Free Agent Auction Draft
    • 4-year Free Agency Contract (1)
    • 3 -year Free Agency Contract (2)
    • 2 -year Free Agency Contract (3)
    • 1-year contracts (19)
  • Rookie Contract Length – 3 Years

For more about Reality Sports Online’s rules and basics, check out its FAQ page.

Reality Sports Online holds its rookie draft as the first step prior to the free agency auction. It’s automated on the site. However, we’re all newbies with their brand of contact/auction drafts so we’re opting for a slow-email draft so there is time for each owner to learn the rules and try to auction room before the draft. The results of the draft will be detailed below.

Round 1

  1. Jeff Tefertiller: WR DeAndre Hopkins
  2. Ryan McDowell: RB Giovani Bernard
  3. Sigmund Bloom: WR Tavon Austin
  4. Mike MacGregor: RB Le’Veon Bell
  5. Bryan Fontaine: WR Cordarrelle Patterson
  6. Tim Stafford: RB Montee Ball
  7. Matt Papson: RB Christine Micheal
  8. Matt Waldman: WR Keenan Allen
  9. Jason Wood: RB Eddie Lacy
  10. Mike Clay: RB Marcus Lattimore
  11. Bob Harris and Mike Dempsey: RB Johnathan Franklin
  12. Rivers McCown: TE Tyler Eifert
  13. Jim Day: RB Zac Stacy
  14. Lance Zierlein: WR Robert Woods

Round 2

  1. Lance Zierlein: WR Markus Wheaton
  2. Jim Day: QB E.J. Manuel
  3. Rivers McCown: WR Justin Hunter
  4. Bob Harris and Mike Dempsey: WR Aaron Dobson
  5. Mike Clay: TE Travis Kelce
  6. Jason Wood: WR Stedman Bailey
  7. Matt Waldman: WR Da’Rick Rogers
  8. Matt Papson: WR Chris Harper
  9. Tim Stafford: WR Quinton Patton
  10. Bryan Fontaine: QB Matt Barkley
  11. Mike MacGregor:  WR Kenny Stills
  12. Sigmund Bloom: QB Geno Smith
  13. Ryan McCowell: TE Jordan Reed
  14. Jeff Tefertiller: WR Terrance Williams

Round 3

  1. Jeff Tefertiller: WR Josh Boyce
  2. Ryan McDowell: RB Latavius Murray
  3. Sigmund Bloom: WR Marquise Goodwin
  4. Mike MacGregor: RB Kerwynn Williams
  5. Bryan Fontaine: WR Charles Johnson
  6. Tim Stafford: RB Mike Gillislee
  7. Matt Papson: TE Zach Ertz
  8. Matt Waldman: WR Marquess Wilson
  9. Jason Wood: QB Tyler Wilson
  10. Mike Clay: RB Andre Ellington
  11. Bob Harris and Mike Dempsey: TE Gavin Escobar
  12. Rivers McCown: RB Stepfan Taylor
  13. Jim Day: TE Levine Toilolo
  14. Lance Zierlein: RB Joseph Randle

Round 4

  1. Lance Zierlein: TE Vance McDonald
  2. Jim Day: RB Mike James
  3. Rivers McCown: WR Ryan Swope
  4. Bob Harris and Mike Dempsey: WR Ace Sanders
  5. Mike Clay: RB Knile Davis
  6. Jason Wood: WR Corey Fuller
  7. Matt Waldman:TE Luke Willson
  8. Matt Papson: WR Aaron Mellette
  9. Tim Stafford: RB Denard Robinson
  10. Bryan Fontaine:RB Chris Thompson
  11. Mike MacGregor: QB Ryan Nassib
  12. Sigmund Bloom: WR Tavarres King
  13. Ryan McDowell: QB Mike Glennon
  14. Jeff Tefertiller: QB Zac Dysert

Round 5

  1. Jeff Tefertiller: TE Chris Gragg
  2. Ryan McDowell: QB Matt Scott
  3. Sigmund Bloom: TE Dion Sims
  4. Mike MacGregor: RB Ray Graham
  5. Bryan Fontaine: “HB” Rex Burkhead
  6. Tim Stafford: RB Kenjon Barner
  7. Matt Papson: WR Eric Rogers
  8. Matt Waldman: QB Sean Renfree
  9. Jason Wood: TE Ryan Otten
  10. Mike Clay: WR Justin Brown
  11. Bob Harris and Mike Dempsey: QB Landry Jones
  12. Rivers McCown: RB Theo Riddick
  13. Jim Day: RB Michael Hill
  14. Lance Zierlein: RB Cierre Wood

Coming Soon at the RSP Blog

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Ryan Clark and I are warming up for football spring and summer. Photo by Jeff Bryk.
Ryan Clark and I are warming up for football spring and summer. Photo by Jeff Bryk.

When it has come to this blog, I’ve been off the grid for a couple of weeks writing the Rookie Scouting Portfolio Post-Draft and some soon-to-be released Gut Check columns at Footballguys. Once I get fully into my spring-summer groove, I’ll have content for the blog.

How long will it take? Maybe another week.

Part of that groove is having a few slower weeks to relax a bit and reorient my schedule that gets throw completely out of whack trying to balance publication of the RSP, this blog, Football Outsiders, Footballguys, and my magazine job.

But there are exciting developments on the horizon at the blog:

  • Reality Sports Online: This is the ultimate dynasty league site for the hardcore fan. I will be hosting a draft with some of my favorite writers around the Internet this month and writing about it monthly. More about this soon.
  • RSPWP2: Yes, it’s still alive. No, we haven’t been updating it much because we’re just waiting for the draft to end. Once it does, Bloom and I will update the picks and commentary. After that, we have a panel of judges who will pick the contenders from the pretenders, determine the best team, and set a draft order for the rookies. Good stuff.
  • Preseason Content: I’ll profile some of the UDFAs from this year as well as emerging talents in their second, third, or fourth seasons in the NFL.
  • 2014 College Players: Nope, never too early to begin looking at college prospects.

And of course, if you’re in a dynasty league and you haven’t bought the 2013 RSP then you ought to help yourself now. The responses I’m getting about the Post-Draft edition are terrific. Here is what you get:

  • 67 pages
  • How to use the RSP and RSP-Post Draft together
  • Overrated/Underrated
  • Good/Bad post-draft fits
  • UDFAs to watch
  • Long-term dynasty waiver wire gems
  • Long-term developmental projects
  • Strategic overview of 2013 rookie drafts
  • Tiered Value Chart Cheat Sheet across all positions
  • Post-Draft rankings analysis and commentary
  • Average Draft Position (ADP) Data
  • RSP Ranking-to-ADP Value Data
  • Raw Data Worksheets to continue calculating additional ADP data for future drafts

And this plus the 1290-page RSP pre-draft are all part of the purchase price. With 10 percent going to Darkness to Light to combat and prevent sexual abuse in communities across the nation, why are you still reading this? Go download it!

To those of you who own the RSP, thank you. It’s a blessing to do this work and you’re supporting not only my ability to write the publication, but maintain this blog that is filled content that other sites would pay to feature.

Looking forward to being back in the mix very soon.