Logic (Newton) or Chance (Luck)?

0 Comments read Players, Quarterback, Reads Listens Views
By rookie QB standards Cam Newton has been incredible. In fact, he's been terrific by any standard. Photo by PDA.Photo

If you were in charge of player-personnel decisions for the NFL team that had the opportunity to choose between Cam Newton or Andrew Luck, which quarterback would you take? I think this is probably one of the most compelling questions I’ve seen all season. There are so many layers of analysis to explore with this type of question.

While Newton was considered a fine quarterback prospect, only a few really nailed him as a player capable of making a Peyton Manning/Carson Palmer impact early in his career. And even fewer did as good of a job debunking the “running quarterback” myth with Newton than Chris Kouffman and Simon Clancy. Their analysis of Cam Newton was dead-on this winter. I highly recommend you make this your lunchtime read. I think the work they did was most impressive and something to learn from.

But then there’s Luck, who is considered the best prospect in the last 20 years. Unlike Newton, Luck is a three-year starter in a pro-style offense that uses West Coast concepts. Luck also has freedom to change plays at the line of scrimmage with the authority of veteran pro quarterbacks while Newton played in what is conceptually recognized as a highly simplified offense by comparison at Auburn. Furthermore, Luck is an athletic quarterback who is more physically mobile along the lines of Ben Roethlisberger or Tarvaris Jackson than Peyton Manning or Tom Brady.

So what do you do, take arguably the “best quarterback prospect in the past 20 years” or take arguably “the best performing rookie quarterback in the past 20 years?” Continue reading →

FantasyThrowdown.com: Free, 1-on-1, and Addictive!

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Check out my new one-on-one fantasy game. It’s free!

Most of you reading the RSP blog play fantasy football. If you’re like me your favorite part of fantasy leagues is the draft. There’s nothing more enjoyable than assembling a team, except perhaps the week you play a heated rival and get a chance to smack talk like you’re Hines Ward and he’s Terrell Suggs.

I’ve been touting a fantasy football game for the past 7-10 days that is a free, simple, convenient, and fast way to play every day and it’s also challenging enough to keep you coming back for more – FantasyThrowdown.com. I think it’s a great innovation to playing fantasy football because its one-on-one match ups allow you to challenge anyone, anytime.

You can play 20 times in a week or you can play once a month – whatever fits your schedule. It’s so easy to learn that I’ve had very few people need to ask me a question about how to play because if you’ve been in a fantasy league, it’s truly an intuitive game to learn.

Here’s the basics (for more complete directions go here):

  • Challenge a friend or another person on the site.
  • You and your opponent determine the three games for that week that will comprise your player draft pool.
  • Pick your games wisely as well as your draft order, because you each get to block a player from the draft pool during the draft. If there’s only two good QBs from those games you selected, you can set it up to force your opponent to settle for a scrub.
  • Draft your team.

Drafts take 10 minutes if you and your opponent are both online. Or you can stretch out the draft throughout the course of the week or even do predraft settings. Play standard or IDP, PPR or non-PPR. We now have flex options – including 2-QB lineups! And the site has live chat and connects to Twitter and Facebook.

Challenge me to a game either by registering and looking me up on the Leaderboard in the Lobby (matt) or use my email address: thegutcheck@gmail.com.

The RSP Blog’s Top 20 RBs (2006-2011) Pt II

0 Comments read Players, Running Back
Study this photo of Reggie Bush, becuase this talent that made him feared in college football has often reduced him to a pedestrian player in the NFL. Photo by JSnell.

The idea of compiling a rankings analysis across several years of Rookie Scouting Portfolio publications has been a popular request by readers for years, but something I have resisted doing. For a complete explanation why please read Part I. If you want to know how my ranking of these players differs from the actual process I use for the RSP publication please read Part I. And if you want to know why I view this exercise as an entertainment piece and not a more serious analysis please read Part I.

Moreover, if you want to see players 11-20, you know what to do. See, I didn’t even need to say it.

Continue reading →

The RSP Blog’s Top 20 RB Prospects (2006-2011) Part I

0 Comments read Players, Running Back
Ahmad Bradshaw easily made my top 20 RB prospects for the RSP. His performance on an undermanned team against superior opposition transcended his stats. Photo by Ted Kerwin.

One of the most frequent requests I’ve heard from readers over the years is to rank players at their position across several draft classes. It’s an entertaining thing to read, but I’ve always been reticent about doing it. There are a lot of approaches I could take with the ranking process and I’m not sure if any of them will feel good enough to stand behind.

I could rank by checklist scores, but I don’t believe in ranking players solely by the quantitative criteria I used to derive a score in the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication. This is only half of the analysis that I perform. The other half is providing a detailed context behind the scoring that often fills in the gaps that the data leaves behind. Even then, there is a factor I call “The Great Emotional Divide,” which separates productive NFL players from massively talented NFL prospects. Another valid question is whether I should judge these players based on what I’ve seen from them in the NFL. If so then am I doing justice to the rookies from the 2011 class?

None of this makes me feel like I’m on solid ground. I don’t like rankings because they are highly fluid thoughts frozen during a brief period in time. Some readers may believe my business as author of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio is ranking players, but they’re mistaken.

My primary goal with the RSP is to profile these players and analyze their games. The ranking is perhaps the least important part of the analysis. It’s the conversation starter. The attention-getter. The marketing schtick. It’s the cocktail party, three-sentence summation of a complex subject that you need to learn or you come across as rude or socially awkward. As much as I value Twitter for attracting readers like you to the work I do, I’m not much on cocktail party chatter. Nothing wrong with it if that’s your thing, it’s just not mine if I can avoid it.

Ultimately, I only ranked players I studied during my time authoring the RSP (2006-2011). I decided to rank these players according to the potential I saw in them before they went pro. I don’t define potential by where I ranked them in the past, but what I think they could have (or did) become based on these factors:

Continue reading →

Quick Announcement: New Series

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As an actual NFL player Laurence Mauroney was a bust, but he was a great prospect. How great? Find out in the coming days if he makes my RB list in a new series where I rank the top 10 prospects during my tenure of researching the Rookie Scouting Portfolio (2006-2011). Photo by Sean O'Brien.

Tom Moore, one of my Twitter followers, asked me to rank Alabama’s Trent Richardson within the scope of the top RB prospects during the last 10 years of drafts. I thought it was a good idea, but I simply haven’t finished my due diligence on the 2012 draft class to feel comfortable compiling that kind of ranking. However I can do a series where I rank the top 10 prospects at each skill position for the duration I’ve been writing the Rookie Scouting Portfolio.

Expect this series to begin at the end of the week.

I’m still determining whether I will rank my players based on the potential I saw in them or a combo of potential and hindsight analysis based on their actual pro performance, but I hope this will be an entertaining series. It’s going to be fun to write, that’s for sure.

I’m also hoping to land an interview with Chris Brown and/or former Scout Dave Razzano for you guys, but I’ve had some trouble getting them to respond after initially expressing interest. Maybe those of you on Twitter can give them a nudge and tell them that you’d be interested in reading about them in a Q&A at the Rookie Scouting Portfolio (you know, “Power to the People” and all that good stuff).

If not, that’s okay. I’m good buddies with this certain S.O.B. who I’ve been waiting to interview, but biding my time to make the request of him. I think he’ll make time though.

 

Let’s “Throwdown!”

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
I might be a loser at Fantasy Throwdown this week, but this site is a winner. Click image for close up of the agony of my defeat.

I don’t know about you, but my favorite part of fantasy football is the draft. Now you can draft every day and have new match ups at any time at FantasyThrowdown.com . I actually received  an email from reader last week who thanked me for tipping him to the site. He said it was like giving cookies to a sugar addict.

We actually saw a lot of people try Fantasy Throwdown last week and the feedback was tremendous. If you didn’t try this strategic and addictive one-on-one fantasy football game last week, then you need need to challenge me to a draft. Just go the site, create a login, and enter my email (thegutcheck@gmail.com) when you create a private challenge. If you need a few more directions, see below.

How to Play

Starting a challenge is easy and the draft is really flexible. If you want to draft in minutes with a friend, you can do that online together. If you don’t have a lot of time in one sitting you can start a challenge on Monday and slowly pick a starting lineup before the first kick off on Sunday.

Some folks are playing dozens of times per week and telling me drafts take as little as 10-15 minutes when both parties are online. Others tell me they enjoy knowing they can draft over the course of a week if they don’t have the time to finish a game in one sitting.

Here’s how it works: Continue reading →

RSP Flashback: DeMarco Murray Q&A and Analysis

0 Comments read Players, Running Back
DeMarco Murray (left), pictured with Landry Jones (center) had a debut as an NFL starter that most players could only dream about. Photo by E.A. Sanabria.

 

DeMarco Murray’s 25-carry, 253-yard debut as the Cowboys starter bested Emmitt Smith’s single game rushing record for the team. As with most accomplishments of this kind, the performance tends to be the product of a confluence of factors: a weakened defense, a big lead, and talent allowed to get into a rhythm. With Sam Bradford on the bench nursing an ankle sprain and the Rams defense consistently folding early in contests, St. Louis was clearly a big part of the equation. But let’s not forget that Cowboys starter Felix Jones had only one game this year where he exceeded 60 yards rushing and the Rams defense’s worst performances against the run came at the legs of LeSean McCoy and Ryan Torain. If you combine the totals of these two backs, they only bested Murray’s output by four yards.

Murray may not go on a streak that Corey Dillon did over a decade ago during his rookie year or like Jerome Harrison’s 2009 stint with the Browns, but the third-round pick of the Cowboys is not a fluke. He was my No.4 runner in the 2011 Rookie Scouting Portfolio and a runner I saw up close at the Senior Bowl practices. He was the best back on the North squad and I heard two former running backs-turned running back coaches label Murray as a potential thoroughbred.

In a Q&A that I conducted with Murray at the Senior Bowl for the New York Times Fifth Down, I was impressed with Murray’s mature approach to the game and desire to hone his tools to become a better athlete and football player. He was one of those few players where his words and intentions matched his growth on the field.

One of the most revealing performances I witnessed during Murray’s college career came during his junior year Continue reading →

Sunday Mailbag 10/23

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Sunday's mailbag always has some good variety. Photo by KLMircea.

Rob McClean: Now that San Diego and Indianapolis have released running backs Jordan Todman and Darren Evans, do either get a shot with the Detroit Lions after the voided Ronnie Brown trade?

Waldman: On the surface it would make sense that the Lions would take a look at this pair of rookies, but after a little more thought I don’t think it’s going to happen. The Lions are a young team, but they are a young team on the rise. I don’t believe they want to work with backs that are unproven in pass protection. This is the reason they sought Ronnie Brown and valued him over Jerome Harrison. Brown has veteran skills as a pass protector that Harrison lacked. The former Washington State runner is actually a player I would have preferred as a ball carrier to Brown, but pass protection is one of the reasons he’s bounced around the league and never earned a full-time gig as a starter.

Harrison would have been a situational reserve for the Eagles who knew the offense, but they didn’t need to rely on him due to the play of LeSean McCoy and rookie Dion Lewis. I believe that Philadelphia’s use of the shotgun passing game was a big reason the Lions targeted Brown and subsequently former Eagle Eldra Buckley. Matt Stafford is the franchise and they can’t take too many chances with backfield protection.

Todman, a rookie from the University of Connecticut, has some promise. Continue reading →

Reads Listens Views 10/21

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/BuHPCsH1EBQ]

Check out Walter Payton’s 75-yard reception.

It’s been a great week at the RSP blog. Chad Spann not only provided great information for an enlightening interview series about his training camp experience with Indianapolis, but he’s now a part of the Buccaneers practice squad and in London for the team’s match up with the Chicago Bears. Jay Cutler gave us a rare, “take this job and shove it,” moment on Sunday night. And Jene Bramel writes a fantastic piece where he dissects a play from an angle that gives us a different conclusion than what television commentators saw at first glance.

The only downer was Skype failing me when I was going to deliver my “And Justice For All” defense parody of John Beck on The Audible Roundtable. Google Phone, we’re pals for now. Don’t let me down…

If you’re new to this blog, thank you for checking out the digs. Even more thanks if you liked enough of what you’ve seen to subscribe. Continue reading →

Jene Bramel: What the TV Angles Don’t Show You

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Jene Bramel gives us a dynamite piece on the value of All-22 angles from coaches tape using a touchdown from the Ravens-Texans game in Week 6 as an example. Photo by Ario_

By Jene Bramel

Television makes football look and sound amazing.  They give us HD video and surround sound, on-field suspended cameras, and parabolic microphones.  But the TV production crews – including many of the color broadcasters and their spotters – still miss showing us crucial chapters of the game story.

Thankfully, football geeks can get a glimpse behind the scenes every week with the Game Rewind service on NFL.com, which provides the coaches film for a few selected plays.  It’s a great way to see if something went down as the television angles and the announcers said it did on Sunday.  Sometimes, the two stories are as different as what my seven year-old and four year-old tell me after I find that half the Halloween candy has been eaten two weeks before they’ve put they’re costumes on. Continue reading →