Posts tagged 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

Browns WR Travis Benjamin: A 2012 RSP Excerpt

Travis Benjamin will start for the Browns in lieu of Josh Gordon's two-game suspension. Learn why. Photo by Erik Daniel Drost.
Travis Benjamin will start for the Browns in lieu of Josh Gordon’s two-game suspension. Learn why. Photo by Erik Daniel Drost.

The Browns announced today that second-year receiver Travis Benjamin will likely earn the starting job while Josh Gordon serves his two-game suspension. Benjamin was my No.17 receiver in the pre-draft rankings of the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication. I like what Benjamin has to offer the Browns long-term and it’s telling that despite the addition of veterans Davone Bess and David Nelson that it the former Miami Hurricane who is the front-runner to start.

Here is my scouting summary on Benjamin from the 2012 RSP.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/hz5P2aaekaM]

There are a lot of good slot receivers in this draft and many of them are more talented than the potential flankers and split ends. Although it would be safer to rank the bigger receivers ahead of these slot players, it would not properly portray the talent spread of this class. Travis Benjamin is one of these slot players.

Benjamin has game-breaking speed and good hands, but one of the better aspects of his play is route running. He does a good job of coming out of breaks on a path that doesn’t veer away from the ball. he often takes strong angles back to the ball while maintaining good route depth and he attacks the football after the break.

He demonstrates skill making adjustments on the football both in tight coverage and vertical routes where the ball is thrown over his head. His route skills make him a versatile threat because he can be used outside as well as in the slot. Although his height and weight is considered small for an outside receiver, DeSean Jackson has similar dimensions.

Benjamin is an experienced return specialist and he’s capable of generating big plays. One of Benjamin’s issues is that he can try too hard to make big plays and not take what’s in front of him in the open field. As a result, he’ll dance too much and not work down hill.

His small frame makes him ineffective as a runner against contact; he won’t break many tackles down field. He also doesn’t generate much pop as a blocker even when demonstrating good technique. He’s a finesse player and he’s best suited for the slot where he won’t have to deal with a lot of press coverage.

Despite the obvious negatives of Benjamin’s size, his game-breaking ability, good-to-great hands, and strong route skills are too much to ignore if matched with an NFL team seeking a slot receiver with game-breaking versatility.

For more analysis of Benjamin, including play-by-play notes, buy the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95, which also includes the 2012 Post-Draft Add-On. For analysis of  analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Football Godfather: Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks)

No one can claim they were the "first" aboard the Russell Wilson bandwagon, but I certainly helped cut down some trees to build the wagon. Photo by Neal D.
No one can claim they were the “first” aboard the Russell Wilson bandwagon, but I certainly helped cut down some trees to build the wagon. Photo by Neal D.

I’ve been asked 2-3 times a day for the past two weeks what my take on Russell Wilson was before the season. I know many of you have read my thoughts on the Seattle quarterback, but I’m going to share those original takes, some thoughts about leadership and why Wilson could be the football equivalent of Al Pacino in the Godfather. I’m also sharing a sample of my 2012 RSP Post-Draft Overall Tiered Dynasty Cheatsheet in this post for those who are new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio – especially those seeking a reason why they should be get the RSP publication every April.

Cheat Sheet

This cheat sheet is separated into color coded tiers. Blue highlight are top‐tier picks. I expect them to make an instant fantasy impact as at least bye‐week options and within 2‐3 years develop into quality starters capable of QB1, RB1, WR1, or TE1 production. Green highlight are players that have similar upside as the top tier, but on average will need more time or work to see the field as a starter or regular contributor.

Red highlight are eventual starters, but may need 2‐3 years to attain that status. On average, this group’s upside is not as great as the preceding tiers. White highlight have the potential to develop into talented situational players within 2‐3 years. Some may exceed this projection and even become stars, but fewer in this tier have that potential than the tiers preceding them. Yellow highlight are projected backups. Just like the positional rankings, players in bold are prospects that I believe are undervalued and have the upside to develop into starters regardless of their starting point.

Value Designation

Next to each player is a value that I generated based on analysis of nine dynasty drafts. Note that it is so early in the dynasty drafting season that these values may not prove accurate even 2‐3 weeks from now. Proceed with caution with this designation and only consider it a guidepost. I calculated the average pick number for each player and I developed a designation is shorthand for the difference between how I value a player and his average spot selected:

  • Par –
  • OverX
  • Under X

“Par” means I valued the player within +/‐ 5 picks of his average spot selected. Over “X” means I value the player at least five spots lower than his average spot selected. The X represents the number I would add to the players’ average selected spot to feel he’s at his appropriate value according to my rankings. Stephen Hill is an “Over 11.” I think he’s overrated by 11 spots of his average selection spot. He’s average pick spot is 12.8 (pick 12 or 13). Add 11 spots to it and I think if a fantasy owner can get Hill with pick 23 he got good value. Realistically this won’t happen in many drafts, but it should help readers reconcile how to approach my rankings and average value. If Hill were an “Under 11,” then I’m recommending 11 spots be subtracted from his average selection spot and either pick him earlier or recognize there is value on the draft board. Note: Not all players will have a value designation.

Quarterback Running Back
(2) Andrew Luck  Par IND (1) Trent Richardson Par CLE
(3) Robert Griffin  Par WAS (4) Doug Martin Par TB
(12) Ryan Tannehill Under 6 MIA (7) David Wilson Par NYG
(13) Russell Wilson Under 27 SEA (8) Ronnie Hillman Under 10 DEN

Wilson’s Value Designation of Under 27 was the largest value of the 122 players I ranked on the full cheatsheet. Admittedly, Ryan Lindley, who was second, with an Under 22, didn’t fare so well – but I would take his situation into some account as well. On the other hand, Dwayne Allen (Under 14), T.Y. Hilton (Under 14), and Chris Givens (Under 10) were pretty good. I think you can see why I liked the Colts draft this year.

Wilson's on-field leadership reminds me of Al Pacino's Godfather: quiet and ruthless (photo by Football Schedule).
Wilson’s on-field leadership reminds me of Al Pacino’s Godfather: quiet and ruthless (photo by Football Schedule).

Back to Wilson. My greatest concerns about him was whether there would be a team willing to buck the old-guard mentality about quarterback height. You can see this caution diminish as the pieces I share with you below progress from pre-draft to post-draft. If you’re new to the RSP blog or somehow missed my thoughts on Wilson here’s what I have been saying about him:

  • Futures: Studying The Asterisk: My debut column at Football Outsiders was an analysis of Russell Wilson’s game, not at Wisconsin – where he had a line bigger than most NFL teams that dominated most opponents – but at NC State, where I believe he faced more aggressive and athletic defenses and thrived with a lesser collection of talent. In this analysis I show definitely that Wilson has the arm, anticipation, and improvisational smarts to become a starting NFL quarterback. I compared Wilson’s style to Drew Brees in his early-April analysis and then analyzed Bree’s game in this piece to show how an NFL team would have no problem finding open passing lanes for Wilson. In other words, without having to say it – the idea that Wilson was too short was hardened bullshit lodged in the minds of football traditionalists whose logic against Brees wasn’t based on the game as much as it was based on past biases ingrained in the game.
  • Undersized-Underrated: This blog post explains why Wilson’s work in Wisconsin’s offense that thrives with the running game and takes its shots deep with a play action game featuring movement, would easily transfer to the NFL. The Seahawks used a lot of these play action concepts for Wilson to be successful down field this year.
  • Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Prince, James Brown, Jimi Hendrix and the Difficulty of Comparisons: This piece is not just about Russell Wilson, but why player comparisons are often misunderstood. This column is one I’ve still have readers mention to me months later.

Elsewhere

Thoughts Today

I have to say that I’m a converted Seahawks fan and Wilson’s addition and success with the team has been the final nail in the coffin of my history with the Tennessee Titans. I followed the Titans because Steve McNair, Eddie George, and a tough defense played a physically and emotionally resilient brand of football that reminded me of my beloved 1980s Cleveland Browns before Art Modell took them to Baltimore where the last vestiges of that team remains today.  My wife is probably having involuntary nervous ticks just from the fact I’m putting this story out here in the universe once again, because she’s heard it so often in such a short period of time. It’s my own personal Three Stooges’ Niagara Falls story.

I can’t cheer for the Ravens because in my heart that city didn’t get my team the right way. Baltimore should have known better than city not to lure a team away from city with a tradition as deep as Cleveland’s. I’m not mad at Ravens fans. It’s not their fault, really. It’s just the nature of business. But It’s painful watching the Ravens. I love Ray Rice’s game. I was chopping wood for his bandwagon as early as Russell Wilson’s. I went to the University of Miami, so don’t even talk to me about Ray Lewis. He should have been a Brown. He is a Brown. They just sent him to the wrong city. Ozzie Newsome was one of my all-time favorite players. The fact he’s such a good GM for what was my team, feels like he’s the NFL Anakin Skywalker turned Darth Vader thanks to the evil emperor Art Modell.

Again, I know it’s just business. Modell isn’t the only one at fault here. The Cleveland city government and Modell were like two dysfunctional spouses screwing up their kids – the people of the city – at every turn.  So for those of you who are all about loyalty, and stuck with the team in Cleveland known as the Browns I respect that. Perhaps one day I will have a team I’m loyal to again, but nearly 20 years with the Titans has been a good run. I hope to have the same kind of run with the Seahawks.

I share this with you because the resiliency is hard not to notice with Wilson. He’s the beacon for this team. Watching him in the season opener against a Cardinals defense that gave the Patriots fits later that month, Wilson had that game won for the Seahawks if not for a Braylon Edwards’ dropped pass. Wilson put that ball exactly where it was supposed to go and you could tell by his reaction that he expected to win this game. He’s such a polished guy when it comes to the way he interacts with others, but what I notice is that quiet, laser-focused intensity.

If I were to characterize the five rookie starters from this draft class, here’s what I see and understand this is infotainment more than hard-hitting analysis:

  • Andrew Luck: The Colts quarterback is the type of guy that you probably want to hate based on all the hype of him being the most prepared NFL prospect with the most smarts for the game since Peyton Manning. But as you get acquainted with him, you realize that he doesn’t take that shit seriously. What he does care about is football and he’s a football player first, quarterback second. He’ll knock the slobber out of defenders as a blocker and if he throws an interception, he’ll try to put that guy on the sideline for the rest of the game with a good hit. You can’t hate him for being a front-runner because he earns that title every day.
  • Robert Griffin: Griffin’s the guy that you know has potential to be a tall tale in every way and when he arrives in your locker room, you still can’t believe it. Everything is off the charts: speed, agility, execution, intelligence, and most of all the willingness to humbly grind yet balance it with leadership that belies his years. He’s also a nasty-tough player with Steve McNair-like toughness that turned Dr. James Andrews into a soap opera starlet last week.
  • Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill is that kid in backyard pickup games who looks like an average guy but when it’s time to pick teams he does himself no favors by telling the captains to pick him first because he’s the best player of the bunch. They dismiss what they think is noise and wait to pick him last. He then proceeds to make a strong case to prove his point, which is exceedingly painful to the competition while you’re feeling pretty lucky that you didn’t let him slip by. I think that’s what Tannehill did at Texas A&M as the walk-on when he told Mike Sherman the coach made a mistake not to award him the starting job over Jerrod Johnson. Still, he accepted the role of wide receiver and was the best one on the team. When he got his shot at quarterback, he was excellent at times. There’s a lot to like about Tannehill’s NFL future.
  • Brandon Weeden: There’s a laid-back, Cowboy thrill ride going on with this guy. He likes being aggressive and he doesn’t worry about making mistakes. There’s a little Brett Favre in him in that respect – both good and bad. I kind of see him as Slim Pickens riding the bomb in Dr. Strangelove. There are times he freaks you out, but you can’t help but like his daring.

Then there’s Wilson. To me, Wilson is like the Godfather. Quiet, charming, refined, but he’ll rip your heart out.  I’m sitting with 20 of my best Footballguys in Vegas two weeks ago, and we’re watching the Seahawks fall behind early, but I didn’t even worry because Wilson is all business. I initially thought the same thing when Atlanta was up 13-0 and Brian Billick was commenting on the lack of emotion on the sidelines. While I wasn’t optimistic at half-time, there is one thing I recognize with Wilson that I learned in my days a manager: teams adopt the attitude of strong leadership.

Let me emphasize that I said strong leadership, not good leadership. In my past business life, I knew a manager who was a strong leader, but he thrived on chaos. He got great short-term results but he wore everyone out at every turn and he burned bridges. He was eventually promoted and his successor turned out to be a good leader. The successor was a strong leader but he was quiet about it.

He focused on the details. He believed that separation from the competition came from preparation and focus. He also believed it mean staying calm and focused on the little adjustments when things weren’t going well and eventually you’d be back in game. When his bombastic boss would try to to instill his brand of over the top leadership (and don’t get me wrong, high intensity, vocal leadership can also be great) based on chaos to this manager’s operation, he’d quietly ask his boss to meet with him about something urgent in an office and then light into his boss. I saw it and it was pretty impressive in this situation because he fought for ownership of his style, had proof of results, and set the boundaries of expectations for his boss’ behavior while managing upward.

This quiet leader’s team took on his persona and that operation was one of the best of its kind that I saw in my years in that industry. Russell Wilson reminds me of that guy. Pete Carroll shared with the media that Wilson told the Seahawks that he had issues with past coaches and went into detail. Carroll liked this about Wilson, while it worried others. I don’t know what Wilson said, but I’d bet money that Wilson’s issues were things he shared openly, honestly, and professionally with coaches and Carroll like that because he’s not some 1950s, square-cut throwback in a leadership role who doesn’t really know anything about leadership.  As long as Wilson stays healthy and the Seahawks can continue to develop talent around him, he’ll be special.

2012 RSP Sample: QB Skill Breakdown Sample

Photo by Seth Youngblood.
Check out my QB Skill Breakdown sample from the 2012 RSP. Photo by Seth Youngblood.

Whenever I provide samples of the RSP, they are links to individual reports of players. These reports are raw, play-by-play notes located in the back of the book. My readers appreciate these, but most of them get the publication for the front-of-the-book material.

One of these reports is the Skill Breadowns that I perform by position. I use the play-by-play notes and checklist scores to create the report you’ll see below. This report ranks each quarterback according to the skill sets I grade with the play-by-play checklists. The report is a tier-based analysis and helps me arrive at my overall rankings for the position.

What you’ll notice is how well Russell Wilson performed across the board in this analysis. A big reason why when Football Outsiders decided to stick an asterisk to his name when he scored off the charts in its Lewin Career Forecast that I thought it worthwhile to break him down as my first column for them.

This link will give you access: Skill Breakdown Section from 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.

To see the 2012 RSP or past issues (2006-2011) you can purchase the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publications here. The 2013 RSP will be available for download at the same link on April 1, 2013. Remember, 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light to help train communities on the prevention of sexual abuse. 

RSP Writers Project Q&A: Chase Stuart, Footballguys, Football Perspective, and Pro Football Reference

Can Peyton Manning add years to Anquan Boldin’s career? Chase Stuart hopes so. Find out more about his RSP Writers team below. Photo by Michael Wifall.

Chase Stuart took an aggressive, offensive approach to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio Writers Project, spending $93.5 million of his $150 million salary cap on his offense. Can’t say I blame him. He has a nice mix of young skill talent and veteran grit and his dollar cost averaging for his offensive line could pay off.

Although his defense has some clear weaknesses, he also has talented players that should do a good job of playing aggressive football when Stuart’s team has a lead. If this team gets behind early it could be problematic, but I can see how this offense is set up for this team to go 10-6, even in a tough division.

Learn more about Stuart’s team below as the writer at Footballguys.com, Pro Football Reference, and (his new blog) Football Perspective provides an engaging take on the RSP Writers Project. Continue reading

New York Times Fifth Down Series: No. 2 WR Justin Blackmon

[youtube=http://youtu.be/voprccSVyz4]

2. Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma St. (6-0, 207) [Highlights above differ from article in NY Times.]

Blackmon plays a physical brand of football despite the fact that he is smaller and slower than he appears when featured in this wide-open Oklahoma State offense. The Cowboy offense gives Blackmon a lot of opportunities to approach defenders in space with the ball in his hands and heading downhill. While he will consistently be playing in tighter spaces at the N.F.L. level and he is not as explosive as other top prospects, Blackmon has the strength, hands and balance to become a reliable “plus” possession receiver (Anquan Boldin, Brandon Marshall) in the league.

Blackmon’s skill after the catch is what separates him from most prospects in this class. He is tough to bring down in the open field because he is a fluid runner with enough burst, strength and balance to run through hits and wraps. Blackmon’s strong hand-eye coordination and tendency to attack the ball from his breaks places him in an aggressive position to get the jump on defenders in open space.

If he develops better [Click here to read the rest]

Emerging Talents: Hybrid James Casey

[youtube=http://youtu.be/aQUijlFyVTQ]

“He’s going to play everywhere. He’s our starting fullback. He’s a starting (tight end) if we go to two tights. It’s still about versatility with James.”

Gary Kubiak, head coach of the Houston Texans talking to Houston Chronicle reporter John McClain about James Casey in May 2012.

Based on what I’ve observed about James Casey, I’m willing to bet if he weren’t a professional football player he’s the type of guy that the Universe gives him a gift as it kicks him in the ass. If you’ve lived life, you know what I mean. If you don’t, imagine driving an 12 year-old beater that you’ve been holding together with prayers and duct tape to hang onto that job or get your kid to school and it breaks down and needs $500 in repairs just you won the $520 on a scratch-and-win lottery ticket the night before.

Casey the football player is ahead of his time, Continue reading

A Route Lesson for Panthers WR Joe Adams From Wes Welker

Whether he runs a 4.55, 4.42, or a 4.24, Joe Adams has the raw tools to get separation in the NFL. Wes Welker gives a lesson on technique that I’m sure he’ll be watching on cutups.

Carolina Panthers rookie receiver Joe Adams has dynamite skills after the catch. I also like his ability to catch the football. However, one thing I consistently saw at Senior Bowl practices was difficulty getting early separation against press coverage.

On at least five down field routes, I saw Adams still fighting for separation against the defensive back 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. On each of these routes he was at least a step shy of a well thrown pass. This had nothing to do with speed. Adams has plenty of it. But route running isn’t about straight-line speed. Continue reading

Reads Listens Views 5/18/2012

When I hear Freddie Hubbard play “Mr. Clean,” I think of Bruce Smith. The Bills great has that soulful, badass Mr. Clean vibe, doesn’t he? Photo by Michael Miller.

Friday News

It’s been a little quieter around here as May winds down, but that’s because I’m busy working on a lot of fantasy football material at Footballguys.com. We’re rolling out an iPad magazine that is going to be Continue reading

More Parallels Between Music and Football

Michael Floyd is about to get some lessons from Larry Fitzgerald that parallel those that musician Russell Malone got from masters Jimmy Smith and Kenny Burrell. Photo by Photogeek21.

I have often broached the idea that quarterbacking or running between the tackles is similar to improvising with a rhythm section. There has to be an understanding of rhythm, interaction, and when to play outside the conventional boundaries of the structure. It should also be a given that a player has to have mastery over his fundamental technique.

You don’t have to be a fan of jazz improvisation to grasp what I’m saying. However, jazz performers tell some great stories that parallel the type of things that young pro football players learn in camp from veterans. One of the big lessons is, don’t bring that weak-ass shit here. Continue reading

Lesson One of a Route Clinic From Wes Welker

Video of Wes Welker running routes in practice is like the MGs giving a clinic on the Stax sound. Photo by Brian J. McDermott

I believe the best way to prepare to watch college players is to study the pros. The reason is that if I’m trying to project a prospect’s potential at the NFL level then I need to have good reference points of what works in the NFL. I also have to understand the differences between the college and NFL games when it comes to execution.

I can tell you that the process is ongoing and I’m still learning. This week, Coach Rob Paschall, PR director for the site Coach Huey, tweeted a link to a video titled, “Wide Receiver Technique Release Drills.” I expected an  instructional video.

However, if my eyes aren’t betraying me – and they might be – it was something a lot better. Continue reading