Posts tagged 2012 RSP

Football Godfather: Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks)

No one can claim they were the "first" aboard the Russell Wilson bandwagon, but I certainly helped cut down some trees to build the wagon. Photo by Neal D.
No one can claim they were the “first” aboard the Russell Wilson bandwagon, but I certainly helped cut down some trees to build the wagon. Photo by Neal D.

I’ve been asked 2-3 times a day for the past two weeks what my take on Russell Wilson was before the season. I know many of you have read my thoughts on the Seattle quarterback, but I’m going to share those original takes, some thoughts about leadership and why Wilson could be the football equivalent of Al Pacino in the Godfather. I’m also sharing a sample of my 2012 RSP Post-Draft Overall Tiered Dynasty Cheatsheet in this post for those who are new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio – especially those seeking a reason why they should be get the RSP publication every April.

Cheat Sheet

This cheat sheet is separated into color coded tiers. Blue highlight are top‐tier picks. I expect them to make an instant fantasy impact as at least bye‐week options and within 2‐3 years develop into quality starters capable of QB1, RB1, WR1, or TE1 production. Green highlight are players that have similar upside as the top tier, but on average will need more time or work to see the field as a starter or regular contributor.

Red highlight are eventual starters, but may need 2‐3 years to attain that status. On average, this group’s upside is not as great as the preceding tiers. White highlight have the potential to develop into talented situational players within 2‐3 years. Some may exceed this projection and even become stars, but fewer in this tier have that potential than the tiers preceding them. Yellow highlight are projected backups. Just like the positional rankings, players in bold are prospects that I believe are undervalued and have the upside to develop into starters regardless of their starting point.

Value Designation

Next to each player is a value that I generated based on analysis of nine dynasty drafts. Note that it is so early in the dynasty drafting season that these values may not prove accurate even 2‐3 weeks from now. Proceed with caution with this designation and only consider it a guidepost. I calculated the average pick number for each player and I developed a designation is shorthand for the difference between how I value a player and his average spot selected:

  • Par –
  • OverX
  • Under X

“Par” means I valued the player within +/‐ 5 picks of his average spot selected. Over “X” means I value the player at least five spots lower than his average spot selected. The X represents the number I would add to the players’ average selected spot to feel he’s at his appropriate value according to my rankings. Stephen Hill is an “Over 11.” I think he’s overrated by 11 spots of his average selection spot. He’s average pick spot is 12.8 (pick 12 or 13). Add 11 spots to it and I think if a fantasy owner can get Hill with pick 23 he got good value. Realistically this won’t happen in many drafts, but it should help readers reconcile how to approach my rankings and average value. If Hill were an “Under 11,” then I’m recommending 11 spots be subtracted from his average selection spot and either pick him earlier or recognize there is value on the draft board. Note: Not all players will have a value designation.

Quarterback Running Back
(2) Andrew Luck  Par IND (1) Trent Richardson Par CLE
(3) Robert Griffin  Par WAS (4) Doug Martin Par TB
(12) Ryan Tannehill Under 6 MIA (7) David Wilson Par NYG
(13) Russell Wilson Under 27 SEA (8) Ronnie Hillman Under 10 DEN

Wilson’s Value Designation of Under 27 was the largest value of the 122 players I ranked on the full cheatsheet. Admittedly, Ryan Lindley, who was second, with an Under 22, didn’t fare so well – but I would take his situation into some account as well. On the other hand, Dwayne Allen (Under 14), T.Y. Hilton (Under 14), and Chris Givens (Under 10) were pretty good. I think you can see why I liked the Colts draft this year.

Wilson's on-field leadership reminds me of Al Pacino's Godfather: quiet and ruthless (photo by Football Schedule).
Wilson’s on-field leadership reminds me of Al Pacino’s Godfather: quiet and ruthless (photo by Football Schedule).

Back to Wilson. My greatest concerns about him was whether there would be a team willing to buck the old-guard mentality about quarterback height. You can see this caution diminish as the pieces I share with you below progress from pre-draft to post-draft. If you’re new to the RSP blog or somehow missed my thoughts on Wilson here’s what I have been saying about him:

  • Futures: Studying The Asterisk: My debut column at Football Outsiders was an analysis of Russell Wilson’s game, not at Wisconsin – where he had a line bigger than most NFL teams that dominated most opponents – but at NC State, where I believe he faced more aggressive and athletic defenses and thrived with a lesser collection of talent. In this analysis I show definitely that Wilson has the arm, anticipation, and improvisational smarts to become a starting NFL quarterback. I compared Wilson’s style to Drew Brees in his early-April analysis and then analyzed Bree’s game in this piece to show how an NFL team would have no problem finding open passing lanes for Wilson. In other words, without having to say it – the idea that Wilson was too short was hardened bullshit lodged in the minds of football traditionalists whose logic against Brees wasn’t based on the game as much as it was based on past biases ingrained in the game.
  • Undersized-Underrated: This blog post explains why Wilson’s work in Wisconsin’s offense that thrives with the running game and takes its shots deep with a play action game featuring movement, would easily transfer to the NFL. The Seahawks used a lot of these play action concepts for Wilson to be successful down field this year.
  • Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Prince, James Brown, Jimi Hendrix and the Difficulty of Comparisons: This piece is not just about Russell Wilson, but why player comparisons are often misunderstood. This column is one I’ve still have readers mention to me months later.

Elsewhere

Thoughts Today

I have to say that I’m a converted Seahawks fan and Wilson’s addition and success with the team has been the final nail in the coffin of my history with the Tennessee Titans. I followed the Titans because Steve McNair, Eddie George, and a tough defense played a physically and emotionally resilient brand of football that reminded me of my beloved 1980s Cleveland Browns before Art Modell took them to Baltimore where the last vestiges of that team remains today.  My wife is probably having involuntary nervous ticks just from the fact I’m putting this story out here in the universe once again, because she’s heard it so often in such a short period of time. It’s my own personal Three Stooges’ Niagara Falls story.

I can’t cheer for the Ravens because in my heart that city didn’t get my team the right way. Baltimore should have known better than city not to lure a team away from city with a tradition as deep as Cleveland’s. I’m not mad at Ravens fans. It’s not their fault, really. It’s just the nature of business. But It’s painful watching the Ravens. I love Ray Rice’s game. I was chopping wood for his bandwagon as early as Russell Wilson’s. I went to the University of Miami, so don’t even talk to me about Ray Lewis. He should have been a Brown. He is a Brown. They just sent him to the wrong city. Ozzie Newsome was one of my all-time favorite players. The fact he’s such a good GM for what was my team, feels like he’s the NFL Anakin Skywalker turned Darth Vader thanks to the evil emperor Art Modell.

Again, I know it’s just business. Modell isn’t the only one at fault here. The Cleveland city government and Modell were like two dysfunctional spouses screwing up their kids – the people of the city – at every turn.  So for those of you who are all about loyalty, and stuck with the team in Cleveland known as the Browns I respect that. Perhaps one day I will have a team I’m loyal to again, but nearly 20 years with the Titans has been a good run. I hope to have the same kind of run with the Seahawks.

I share this with you because the resiliency is hard not to notice with Wilson. He’s the beacon for this team. Watching him in the season opener against a Cardinals defense that gave the Patriots fits later that month, Wilson had that game won for the Seahawks if not for a Braylon Edwards’ dropped pass. Wilson put that ball exactly where it was supposed to go and you could tell by his reaction that he expected to win this game. He’s such a polished guy when it comes to the way he interacts with others, but what I notice is that quiet, laser-focused intensity.

If I were to characterize the five rookie starters from this draft class, here’s what I see and understand this is infotainment more than hard-hitting analysis:

  • Andrew Luck: The Colts quarterback is the type of guy that you probably want to hate based on all the hype of him being the most prepared NFL prospect with the most smarts for the game since Peyton Manning. But as you get acquainted with him, you realize that he doesn’t take that shit seriously. What he does care about is football and he’s a football player first, quarterback second. He’ll knock the slobber out of defenders as a blocker and if he throws an interception, he’ll try to put that guy on the sideline for the rest of the game with a good hit. You can’t hate him for being a front-runner because he earns that title every day.
  • Robert Griffin: Griffin’s the guy that you know has potential to be a tall tale in every way and when he arrives in your locker room, you still can’t believe it. Everything is off the charts: speed, agility, execution, intelligence, and most of all the willingness to humbly grind yet balance it with leadership that belies his years. He’s also a nasty-tough player with Steve McNair-like toughness that turned Dr. James Andrews into a soap opera starlet last week.
  • Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill is that kid in backyard pickup games who looks like an average guy but when it’s time to pick teams he does himself no favors by telling the captains to pick him first because he’s the best player of the bunch. They dismiss what they think is noise and wait to pick him last. He then proceeds to make a strong case to prove his point, which is exceedingly painful to the competition while you’re feeling pretty lucky that you didn’t let him slip by. I think that’s what Tannehill did at Texas A&M as the walk-on when he told Mike Sherman the coach made a mistake not to award him the starting job over Jerrod Johnson. Still, he accepted the role of wide receiver and was the best one on the team. When he got his shot at quarterback, he was excellent at times. There’s a lot to like about Tannehill’s NFL future.
  • Brandon Weeden: There’s a laid-back, Cowboy thrill ride going on with this guy. He likes being aggressive and he doesn’t worry about making mistakes. There’s a little Brett Favre in him in that respect – both good and bad. I kind of see him as Slim Pickens riding the bomb in Dr. Strangelove. There are times he freaks you out, but you can’t help but like his daring.

Then there’s Wilson. To me, Wilson is like the Godfather. Quiet, charming, refined, but he’ll rip your heart out.  I’m sitting with 20 of my best Footballguys in Vegas two weeks ago, and we’re watching the Seahawks fall behind early, but I didn’t even worry because Wilson is all business. I initially thought the same thing when Atlanta was up 13-0 and Brian Billick was commenting on the lack of emotion on the sidelines. While I wasn’t optimistic at half-time, there is one thing I recognize with Wilson that I learned in my days a manager: teams adopt the attitude of strong leadership.

Let me emphasize that I said strong leadership, not good leadership. In my past business life, I knew a manager who was a strong leader, but he thrived on chaos. He got great short-term results but he wore everyone out at every turn and he burned bridges. He was eventually promoted and his successor turned out to be a good leader. The successor was a strong leader but he was quiet about it.

He focused on the details. He believed that separation from the competition came from preparation and focus. He also believed it mean staying calm and focused on the little adjustments when things weren’t going well and eventually you’d be back in game. When his bombastic boss would try to to instill his brand of over the top leadership (and don’t get me wrong, high intensity, vocal leadership can also be great) based on chaos to this manager’s operation, he’d quietly ask his boss to meet with him about something urgent in an office and then light into his boss. I saw it and it was pretty impressive in this situation because he fought for ownership of his style, had proof of results, and set the boundaries of expectations for his boss’ behavior while managing upward.

This quiet leader’s team took on his persona and that operation was one of the best of its kind that I saw in my years in that industry. Russell Wilson reminds me of that guy. Pete Carroll shared with the media that Wilson told the Seahawks that he had issues with past coaches and went into detail. Carroll liked this about Wilson, while it worried others. I don’t know what Wilson said, but I’d bet money that Wilson’s issues were things he shared openly, honestly, and professionally with coaches and Carroll like that because he’s not some 1950s, square-cut throwback in a leadership role who doesn’t really know anything about leadership.  As long as Wilson stays healthy and the Seahawks can continue to develop talent around him, he’ll be special.

2012 RSP Sample: QB Skill Breakdown Sample

Photo by Seth Youngblood.
Check out my QB Skill Breakdown sample from the 2012 RSP. Photo by Seth Youngblood.

Whenever I provide samples of the RSP, they are links to individual reports of players. These reports are raw, play-by-play notes located in the back of the book. My readers appreciate these, but most of them get the publication for the front-of-the-book material.

One of these reports is the Skill Breadowns that I perform by position. I use the play-by-play notes and checklist scores to create the report you’ll see below. This report ranks each quarterback according to the skill sets I grade with the play-by-play checklists. The report is a tier-based analysis and helps me arrive at my overall rankings for the position.

What you’ll notice is how well Russell Wilson performed across the board in this analysis. A big reason why when Football Outsiders decided to stick an asterisk to his name when he scored off the charts in its Lewin Career Forecast that I thought it worthwhile to break him down as my first column for them.

This link will give you access: Skill Breakdown Section from 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.

To see the 2012 RSP or past issues (2006-2011) you can purchase the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publications here. The 2013 RSP will be available for download at the same link on April 1, 2013. Remember, 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light to help train communities on the prevention of sexual abuse. 

RSP Writers Project Q&A: Chase Stuart, Footballguys, Football Perspective, and Pro Football Reference

Can Peyton Manning add years to Anquan Boldin’s career? Chase Stuart hopes so. Find out more about his RSP Writers team below. Photo by Michael Wifall.

Chase Stuart took an aggressive, offensive approach to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio Writers Project, spending $93.5 million of his $150 million salary cap on his offense. Can’t say I blame him. He has a nice mix of young skill talent and veteran grit and his dollar cost averaging for his offensive line could pay off.

Although his defense has some clear weaknesses, he also has talented players that should do a good job of playing aggressive football when Stuart’s team has a lead. If this team gets behind early it could be problematic, but I can see how this offense is set up for this team to go 10-6, even in a tough division.

Learn more about Stuart’s team below as the writer at Footballguys.com, Pro Football Reference, and (his new blog) Football Perspective provides an engaging take on the RSP Writers Project. Continue reading

Coming of Age: Young Vets to Watch

Randall Cobb? I love this guy. I want to see the Packers use him like Percy Harvin and Wes Welker wrapped up in an electric package. Photo by Elvis Kennedy

Something I emphasize when it comes to fan expectations of young players transitioning from college to the NFL is to account for the Great Emotional Divide. College football is an insulated world where university athletic programs fill its players’ time with a full slate of activities so there is little idle time. Moreover, these programs often employ staff to monitor participation in each of these activities.

The NFL is not as tightly managed because the players are too old to be treated as anything less than men. Colleges and universities exist in that gray area where 95 percent of its students are still socially young men, or even boys, transitioning into manhood. College football programs can use this gray area to its advantage by protecting its investment with rules that minimize the potential for law-breaking behavior.

That’s a topic for another time. Another consequence of these “live your life by the numbers” schedules imposed on college football players is that they are not use to the freedom that comes when they leave NCAA programs and enter the real world. Despite the fact that football players make unreal money as professionals, the looser schedules and expectation for players to train and study on their own is as real as it gets.

These new freedoms combined with significantly tougher competition, more complex mental components of the game, and vastly higher expectations can lead to something that these young athletes aren’t use to doing on the football field that can hold them back: thinking. When an athlete starts thinking on the field of play he hesitates. When he hesitates, he’s a step slower. And when he’s a step slower, he’s behind. And when he’s behind, he makes mistakes or misses opportunities he should have exploited.

Remember this last paragraph as you spend this summer reading Continue reading

New York Times Fifth Down Series: No. 2 WR Justin Blackmon

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2. Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma St. (6-0, 207) [Highlights above differ from article in NY Times.]

Blackmon plays a physical brand of football despite the fact that he is smaller and slower than he appears when featured in this wide-open Oklahoma State offense. The Cowboy offense gives Blackmon a lot of opportunities to approach defenders in space with the ball in his hands and heading downhill. While he will consistently be playing in tighter spaces at the N.F.L. level and he is not as explosive as other top prospects, Blackmon has the strength, hands and balance to become a reliable “plus” possession receiver (Anquan Boldin, Brandon Marshall) in the league.

Blackmon’s skill after the catch is what separates him from most prospects in this class. He is tough to bring down in the open field because he is a fluid runner with enough burst, strength and balance to run through hits and wraps. Blackmon’s strong hand-eye coordination and tendency to attack the ball from his breaks places him in an aggressive position to get the jump on defenders in open space.

If he develops better [Click here to read the rest]

Quick Breakdown on Supplmental RB Ed Wesley, TCU

TCU may miss RB Ed Wesley’s contributions to its three-man rotation, but he has a lot to learn before an NFL will feel the same way. Photo by Joe Duty.

I watched Ed Wesley this time last week, presuming he would be playing another year. A few days later, he applied for the NFL’s supplemental draft. Wesley was a rising senior at Texas Christian and in a committee situation with fellow runners Waymon James and Matthew Tucker. He’s a 5’9″, 200-pound runner with potential to develop into a better player at his position. In this final game versus Louisiana Tech, I saw more areas he needed to work on than areas where he shined.

As most of you following this blog know, all of my conclusions are based on play-by-play analysis. I may decide to give some play-by-play break down of Wesley before the draft, but in case I don’t here is a short summary of what I saw from the Horned Frogs runner. Continue reading

The Guardian NFL Writer Cian Fahey’s RSP Writers Project Team

“Revis, you’ve been traded to Fahey’s team. His defense might be better than mine personnel-wise. But I hope you can have 15 pick-sixes, because they might need it if his offense doesn’t step up.” Photo by Marianne O’Leary.

Cian Fahey covers the NFL for The Guardian and he also writes for Irish Central and at one time contributed for The Bleacher Report. Fahey is a Steelers fan and also contributes toSteelers Depot. If you’ve never read his work or followed him on Twitter, he’s not afraid to give his unfiltered opinion. You’ll see that as he reveals his roster below.

I like a lot of Fahey’s choices on defense. I opted for Darrelle Revis yesterday when I finally began my revised version of my team. The idea of shutting down an entire side of the field or plastering 95 percent of the league’s receivers into utter uselessness is appealing. Where we differ is that Fahey is opting for a 3-4 scheme and I’m a 4-3 guy. On offense, Fahey and I both took a chance on tackle Charles Brown, who was a second-round pick of the Saints two years ago but injuries derailed his developmental opportunity to flourish as a starter. His production for eight games in 2011 makes hm a player I agree is a bargain.

As for his take on Dwight Lowery? Well, I suspect there’s a lot of love at Bleacher Report for the Jaguars safety. It’s one of the follow up questions Continue reading

Reads Listens Views 6/11/2012

Film Study is a Dangerous Job

My life has been a whirlwind these past two months. In addition to writing the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio here’s the rest of the past eight weeks:

Of course this list doesn’t include the more personal elements of my life that make life a fun (sometimes) challenge.  Continue reading

How to (and how not to) Throw the Bomb

A bomb is a bomb is a bomb? It all depends on your point of view. Photo by Delta Mike

This is one of my favorite posts in a while, because it is two very different angles of one play. The first angle will leave you shaking your head at the wide receiver. The second angle will provide a more sympathetic feeling towards him and less so for the quarterback.  Continue reading

Reads Listens Views 6/1/2012

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Welcome to Reads Listens Views. It’s my Friday space where, in contrast to the rest of the week, I write less about football and share a little more about life in general. I’d like to thank my avid readers for your patronage during the quiet months of late spring-early summer. I’m growing more attached to this blog with each passing month. Hopefully, everyone has been getting good use of the 2012 RSP and 2012 RSP Post-Draft addendum.

If you have a dynasty draft coming up and haven’t downloaded it, you’ll love it. I have a lot of first-timers this year that have told me how pleased they are with it. I’m also days away from cutting my second donation to Darkness to Light, thanks to my readers. Every $10 I’ve been able to donate on behalf of the RSP pays for training of an adult to understand how to combat and prevent sexual abuse in the community.

Football Reads Continue reading