Posts tagged 2013 NFL Draft

Dri Archer: Offensive Weapon/Caffeine Substitute

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Dri Archer is DeAnthony Thomas without the hype. Photo by Lindsayjf91.
Dri Archer is DeAnthony Thomas without the hype. Photo by Lindsayjf91.

With an alarm clock that goes off at 4:30 am, dawn comes around fast in my household. It doesn’t help matters that I’m not a coffee drinker. But if I could watch more prospects with Dri Archer’s big-play ability, I’d have a great 5:00 am caffeine substitute.

The Kent State offensive weapon averaged 9 yards per carry (yes carry, not touch) on his 150 attempts in 2012. He was also the only player in the FBS to earn over 1300 yards rushing and catch over 500 yards of passes last year. There’s a good possibility that Black Mamba has nothing on Archer but more surrounding talent in a better offensive system.

The Go Daddy Bowl in Mobile Alabama might be one of Archer’s worst statistical outings – 99 total yards and a touchdown – but in this game Archer had one of the best non-scoring runs I saw last year. At 5’8″, 164 pounds, Archer is an inch shorter and 10 pounds lighter than Tavon Austin. Regardless of what anyone says, Austin will be a test case for smaller hybrid players. If Austin succeeds right away, Archer and DeAnthony Thomas could see their draft stock rise and we begin to hear analysts talk about skill in “pound-for-pound” terms.

If Austin’s game translates, here is a coming attraction of what Archer might bring to a pro stadium near you.

Short Area Handling + Long Speed = Instant Offense

Here’s a jet sweep in the first half of the Go Daddy Bowl where Archer gains 44 yards on one of the best individual displays of speed and agility I saw in 2012. This is a 1st and 10 at the Kent State 34 from a 1×2 receiver, 11 personnel set. Archer is the single receiver on the strong side of the formation and motions towards the quarterback, taking the jet sweep as the strong side guard and running back pulls to the weak side edge. Here’s the play and below it, my thoughts on how it unfolds.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_ZfDeYl5lA?start=66&w=560&h=315]

Archer sets up his blocks with a fantastic cut inside the running back, who has to contend with an edge defender penetrating seven yards deep into the backfield. It’s not just the deep penetration early in the play that makes the ball carrier’s adjustment so impressive, it’s the fact that he has to dip inside the running back and away from the quarterback.

Avoiding one obstacle this early in a play is enough to foil most runners, but I’ve seen enough quarterback-runner collisions in my day to believe that what Archer does here is that 1 out of 10 scenario that worked in his favor. Archer then makes a second dip inside the pulling guard as he gets just outside the hash to reach the line of scrimmage.

These two cuts not only prevent a loss, but open the field for a huge gain up the hash and flat. He beats the backside defender with his acceleration is in the second level. Eight yards later, he dips outside the safety with a lightning-quick change of direction at top speed as he crosses the first down marker.

Archer beats the defensive back around the corner and reaches the 50 (16 yards into his 44-yard gain) with another secondary defender five yards down field with an angle on the runner. Archer reaches the 45, takes two steps and dips inside the corner, using his outside arm to ward off the defender.

This is a strong example of how a stiff arm can have value as either an expression of leverage or power.  In Archer’s case it’s a simple tap of the flat-footed defensive back’s shoulder as he’s executing a swift cut to get behind three lineman working up field at the 40 and the stiff arm sends the defender to the ground.

Archer crosses behind these linemen at the 40, cuts across to the left hash at the 35, and makes a sharp cut inside the safety at the 30. If he doesn’t have to run into his wide receiver to make the cut he probably continues across the field and scores. However, the combination of his cut to avoid the corner and the flash of his teammate behind him forces Archer to cut towards traffic where there are five defenders within a five-yard radius.

As he reaches the 25 Archer is wrapped and it ends one of the best runs I’ve seen all year.

Again, I’ll recap why I loved this run and how it might give us a clue to what could make him a successful NFL prospect as an offensive/special teams weapon:

  • Archer has a feel for anticipating and avoiding penetration.
  • The ball carrier’s quickness and change of direction isn’t predicated on stop-start moves that don’t work as well in the NFL; he bends runs and accelerates through cuts, which coupled with his anticipation makes it even more difficult for backside pursuit to get easy plays when penetration alters the runner’s path.
  • Archer has a feel for setting up blocks and despite his electronically timed 4.28-speed, he has the patience to work behind his blockers.
  • Kent State’s big-play weapon plays with good pad level, keeps his legs moving, and understands the value of using a stiff arm to ward off contact as opposed to an instrument of punishment.

If not Austin, Why Not DeSean Jackson?

The Eagles receiver is 6’0″, 178 pounds and has shown he’s a capable, impact player as an NFL starter split from the formation. Archer has the fundamental skills that teams can build on when it comes to receiving: He catches the ball with his hands away from his body, and he doesn’t let impending contact dissuade him from attacking the football or break his concentration.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARPF1KIiiZ8?start=185&w=560&h=315]

I also like that there is some evidence of Jackson using his hands and feet to work free of a potential jam from Dolphins draft pick Don Jones on this play.

This 18-yard gain is Archer’s final catch of the game –  2nd and 10 at the Arkansas State 45 with 0:57 in the half from a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun set. Archer is the slot man on the strong side at the right hash with a safety playing 15 yards off the hash and Jones as the nickel back playing  two yards off the line of scrimmage to Archer’s inside.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_ZfDeYl5lA?start=155frameborder=&w=560&h=315]

A second safety is in the middle of the field about eight yards off the line of scrimmage but Archer and the quarterback do a good job of reading him crowd the line of scrimmage as the pre-snap phase ends. It this safety that gives the quarterback and receiver an opening to exploit.

Archer does a fine job of using his hands to avoid Jones’ jam as he slants across the field to the opposite hash, catching the ball 12 yards to the opposite hash with his hands.

I haven’t seen enough from Archer to give a serious comparison to Austin or Jackson beyond his athleticism and open-field skill. In these respects, Archer fits within this spectrum of athlete. However, as much as I appreciate what Archer does from the backfield I can’t help but see him more as a niche player than an every-down threat unless he’s drafted as a receiver.

There’s more I have to watch before I can deliver a more definitive analysis. Still, Archer is a player who can wake up defenses and fans in a hurry and it makes him worth watching when Kent State takes the field in September.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 6/14/13

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
If you read the David Eggers book, then you know this picture. Photo by Screen Punk.
If you read the David Eggers book, then you know this picture. Photo by Screen Punk.

Another Friday, another Reads Listens Views. This week has its routine mix of football and non-football content. The real world content (as usual) is often so quietly disturbing that I know 99 percent of you won’t even read it. That’s okay, I share it for the handful that do because fortunately for me I don’t have to always blow sunshine up people’s hind parts.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/28DfvvfZLi0]

Some people hate covers. I’m not one of them. Sometimes you learn more about the quality of a song when someone other than the artist that introduced it to the public performs it. I couldn’t think of a better artist to cover a Sting tune than Stevie Wonder. Whether or not ballads with a bossa nova feel is your thing, I think you can appreciate the craftsmanship of the lyrics and music. On another note, if Sting is just a few years younger than my dad and looks like that, I’m getting back to doing yoga every day. Here’s Sting talking about his yoga experience just a few years after he started it.

I was planning to anyhow, but this was just another source of inspiration.

Of course musicians who make improvisation a high art form have no problem with playing covers . Here’s one of my recent favorites of one of some of the greatest modern performers at their individual instruments playing the Thelonius Monk Blues Straight, No Chaser.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/0uYDBVoUjPo]

Thank You

Normally, this is my weekly ritual to thank my readers for visiting the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog and/or buying the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication. Today, I want to thank a subset of my readers that do a lot of positive things for me – the blogging, web, and Twitter community. You have been a source of inspiration, camaraderie, and assistance since I started this blog two years ago.

Writers like Robert Miller, Doug Farrar, Chris Brown, the Dynasty League Football crew, Ryan Lownes, Josh Norris, Sigmund Bloom, Cecil Lammey, and a host of others have routinely sent people here. I don’t participate often in Twitter’s ‘Follow Friday’ ritual, but thanks to all of you who mention me in your lists. I’ll defer to Cian Fahey’s excellent list of people to follow on Twitter that even includes humorous and informative example tweets with each person he recommends (and by the way, Fahey caught me on a good day).

If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio look around. There’s a lot of work that I believe you’ll find worth the read. Here are a few suggestions:

If you’re one of the many who have bought the 2013 RSP and it was your first time, I appreciate all the great feedback about your experience reading it. If you haven’t downloaded the RSP yet, you can click these links to learn about it and the post-draft add-on. If you’re not aware, the RSP donates 10 percent of each purchase to Darkness to Light, a non-profit whose mission is to train individuals and communities on sexual abuse prevention and how to address the tragedy when it happens. I have many reasons for believing in this cause, but the Penn State scandal is a perfect illustration that a significant part of the problem are everyday people like us who make mistakes with how to handle it when it happens.

This week is going to be heavy on the ‘listens’ and ‘views’ part of this Friday ritual.

Football

  • I rarely get to post something that Joe Bryant writes, because he’s usually too busy running a business called Footballguys.com. However, I enjoyed his post about Bill Belichick’s handling of the post-Tebow press conference. And I agree, it isn’t that hard.
  • If you follow Bryant or Chris Brown then you probably saw this tackling drill, but I want to talk about it a little more. It doesn’t require me to tell you that it’s safe, teaches good form with the hips, knees head, and arms. If someone can invent or modify a ball that can change direction, it could be even better.
  • Beyond hats, I’m not big fan of consumer football apparel. I have a couple of jerseys and I never wear them. However, this is a good marketing concept by the NFLPA. Hopefully, they’ll put their money where their mouth is when it’s time to back up the good vibe.

Non-Football

  • This Guy Reinvented the Wheel – I don’t know many skateboarders, but this concept has wide-ranging applications beyond the hobby. Fascinating use a cube shape to create a better wheel.
  • This site Invisible People is a great project where a movie director interviews the homeless in the Seattle area. Here is a very short video profile of Mark, a man probably close to my age who suffered a nervous breakdown after his wife and daughter died and when he was released from a psychiatric hospital he had lost everything. The director always asks the people he profiles to share three wishes. Most of them can barely think of more than one and often the wish is rarely about themselves.
  • If you’ve made it this far then you realize that my non-football links are rather depressing. This is why I love having a blog. I can’t share this stuff elsewhere without someone telling me to spout more sunshine. They can blow that sunshine where the sun don’t shine because this is real shit that we ignore all too often. This story on our prison system is a necessary read. For a less graphic, but even scarier true account of what happens when an innocent man winds up in prison – and it’s chilling as hell – read Dave Eggers’ book Zeitoun.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/8OEjYquyjcg]

Blackfish looks like a quality whistle-blower story about a common sense issue that the movie ‘King Kong’ addressed nearly 100 years ago. I loved going to Seaworld when I was growing up and seeing Shamu was a thrill. It was also a bad idea.

Inspirational

[youtube=http://youtu.be/qX9FSZJu448]

2013 1st Round Draft Thoughts and Links

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
The attitude towards the term "project" is often a glass half-full/half-empty proposition. Which one is Manuel? See below. Photo by D Wilkinson.
The attitude towards the term “project” is often a glass half-full/half-empty proposition. The Bills are optimistic. See below. Photo by D Wilkinson.

Looking for a little preview of my 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio Pre-Draft Rankings? The New York Times is posting the RSP top-five at each skill position.

There will likely be a cluster of  quarterbacks and receivers leaving the board in the second and third round who have just as much if not more of an impact that the first-round talent. I think the same will happen with running backs and tight ends in rounds 3-5 and it will be important to analyze team fit in terms of prospect talent, depth chart talent, and scheme.

Remember, when you purchase the RSP you also get the Post-Draft Addendum with revised fantasy rankings across all positions, preliminary ADP data, and player-team fit analysis.  With a draft like this where we didn’t see a lot of skill players go off the board in the first round, the more you know about these guys the better.

Download the 2013 RSP today and when I announce the post-draft add-on is ready you enter your login and password to download it as well.

First-Round Thoughts – You can find links to analysis of a majority of these players here.

1. Kansas City- Left Tackle Eric Fisher: Fisher’s athleticism makes him a slam dunk here. While Joeckel is an excellent player in his own right, Fisher’s ability to pull and the similarities to former Chippewa and Niner tackle extraordinaire Joe Staley made it too difficult for Andy Reid to resist. Remember, Reid loves the screen play and and Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, Dexter McCluster, and Devon Wylie are the type of players with run after the catch skills who will also benefit from a tackle who can work the flats.

2. Jacksonville – Tackle Luke Joeckel: Will he play left or right with Eugene Monroe there? Doug Farrar thinks Joeckel is a better right tackle in terms of athletic match. What I can tell you is that the Jaguars have had their share of ailments at the line of scrimmage and it’s always good to have redundancy at one of the more important positions on offense. There’s still time for Jacksonville to grab a quarterback if they want to make this a three-horse race between a rookie, Blaine Gabbert, and Chad Henne. Personally, I think they would be wise to give Gabbert one more year, but he better shake the “Blame” Gabbert label quick.

3. Miami (trade with Oakland) – Outside Linebacker Dion Jordan: Cameron Wake opposite Jordan, but Jon Gruden brings up an interesting point in terms of Jordan playing a rotation at Oregon and whether he’ll be good for four quarters of NFL football. I’m not too worried about Jordan’s conditioning as much as how he’ll fit into a new defense. He also strikes me as more of a “clean-up” playmaker than the instigator. On a team with Cameron Wake on the opposite side, that’s not a bad thing, but if Jordan had to be that primary guy I’d be more worried. It’s a fine pick and a risk worth taking because of the Aldon Smith upside.

4. Philadelphia – Left Tackle Lane Johnson: A former college quarterback-tight end-right tackle who is now drafted as a left tackle. You need an athlete for up-tempo football and he can play either side. Johnson will bolster the running game and hopefully transition smooth enough to give Mike Vick fewer breakdowns. Of course, Vick has to improve his presnap calls and Johnson has to get used to playing with a mobile quarterback who can be out of control at the wrong times.

5. Detroit – Defensive End Ezekial Ansah: Great athlete who, like Jordan, cleans up better than he starts action. He’s inexperienced compared to even most prospects. Detroit loves his effort and I think this is Jim Washburn lobbying Jim Schwartz for another chance to find a Jason Pierre-Paul. Hopefully there is a fast learning curve or Willie Young takes a huge step forward – he was a second-round pick, you’d think he’s capable. Of course the bills made DT John McCargo a first-round pick and he’s done zilch.

6. Cleveland – Outside linebacker/Defensive End Barkevious Mingo: Mingo’s upside is worth the risk. I think OLB is an easier transition than to DE and he was an LB in high school. Mingo is a misunderstood prospect in terms of his diminished production last year. He was asked to contain the quarterback rather than attack and this meant bull-rushing 300-pound linemen. For a player his size to do this effectively – and he did – takes excellent strength and quickness. First-round pick D.J. Fluker didn’t look all that good against the “raw” Mingo. Cleveland got a potential impact player once this kid refines 1-2 moves that he already has in his toolbox.

7.  Arizona – Guard Jonathan Cooper: One of the safer picks in the draft. Unbelievably quick and his ability to pull not only helps the running game, but play action. Remember, the best play action passes often come with a pulling guard. It’s not always how convincing the quarterback’s fake or the threat of the specific runner as much as it is the fear of the guard. The threat of Cooper will fool a lot of defenders in this league and buy Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald more time. People can make fun of Palmer’s lack of mobility all they want, but he’s far more nimble than many have characterized on TV. Regardless of mobility, Palmer still throws a great deep ball and has three players capable of working down field with the benefit of play action. Cooper will help buy time. If the tackles play a little better, I’d give a bump to Palmer, Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and Andre Roberts. There’s some nice material for this passing game to click and this team will need to throw the ball a lot.

8. St. Louis (trade with Buffalo) – Wide Receiver  Tavon Austin: If Austin is misused, he’ll look like Dexter McCluster pre-Andy Reid days. If his talents are maximized, Darren Sproles and Wes Welker come to mind. Austin is not as talented as either in their specific skills as runners and receivers, but he’s a good mix of both and that means he could be one of the more productivity rookies this year.

9. NY Jets – Cornerback Dee Milliner: I said I’d be surprised (December 1) if he wasn’t a top-10 pick.  Miller’s ability to play the receiver and the ball in tight coverage is excellent. He may not catch a lot of passes, but he knows how to jar it loose and get the angle to knock it away. That’s more important that the interception. He’s also a terrific run defender. The Jets may miss Darrelle Revis, but if Milliner plays like he did at Alabama only your less enlightened New York fans will be bashing Milliner a few years from now.

10. Tennessee – Guard Chance Warmack: Warmack bolsters a Titans line and the hope is to give Chris Johnson and dare I say, Shonn Greene more room to roam. If you ask me, they should take another running back. Spencer Ware could beat Greene in his sleep and make a great complement to Johnson, but I don’t think the front office would like to be embarrassed for its misstep on free agent runners so don’t count on it. Then again, if they were foolish enough to take Greene, perhaps they lack the awareness to avoid a better back they can get in rounds 5-7.

11. San Diego – Tackle D.J. Fluker: Safe pick who can play tackle or guard, but I wonder if this is a “play not to lose” pick. Fluker is that kind of guy that teams say “if he doesn’t work at tackle, we at least have a guard.” That’s not how I want to feel about a first-round pick. Cleveland did that with tackle Jason Pinkston two years ago, but the budding stud at guard was a fifth-round pick.

12. Oakland – Cornerback D.J. Hayden: A good player versus the pass. But when the largest artery in your body attached to your heart looks like wet toilet tissue in the operating room and you’re seconds from death, it’s hard to believe the Raiders would be this confident to take Hayden this early. I like their confidence, but for an organization with a track record of taking great athletes with high risk thresholds fans have to be somewhat concerned. If it pays off, he’ll be just what this team needs because its cornerback depth chart is unproven, at best.

13. NY Jets – Defensive Tackle Sheldon Richardson Excellent athlete, but is he a three-technique? What does this mean for the future of the defensive scheme and use of current personnel like Coples?

14. Carolina – Defensive Tackle Star Lotulelei: I think he’s capable of being the best player in this draft. I have a feeling the heart condition scared off all these steak-eating, heart medicine-taking football decision-makers in their 50s and 60s who considered the Utah defensive tackle early. There’s concern he wears down late in games but nobody plays 91.5 percent of the season’s snaps and doesn’t wear down. That’s an insane amount of snaps for a big man. He anticipates the snap better than any defensive tackle in this draft and I think his pass rushing will be better than people characterize once he’s on a rotation that doesn’t ask him to play as much as he did out west. If Jon Beason, Luke Kuechley, and Thomas Davis stay healthy, the Panthers may compete for a playoff spot in 2013.

15 Saints – Safety Kenny Vacarro: A physical, aggressive, athletic tone-setter, Vaccaro is one of my three must-have players along with Lotulelei and Fisher. He should grow into a fine player and be capable of covering slot receivers and tight ends.

16 Bills – QB E.J. Manuel: See this link for more on Manuel. It is fascinating that Marrone took Manuel over Nassib – the quarterback Greg Cosell, Russ Lande, and Jon Gruden thought was the best pro-ready passer. Manuel’s accuracy needs work, but it’s more a conceptual than technical issue. I’m not even sure you call it a flaw as much as inexperience. We’ll see if Todd McShay’s “slow eyes” assertion will be an issue. I thought Manuel read the field well and learned fast from his mistakes. He’ll make some foolish plays, but I don’t think they’ll be the same type over and over. What they’ll be able to do with Manuel and the running backs will also be something to watch. What I do worry about is the lack of a deep threat in Buffalo. Steve Johnson is a fine player, but not a classic field stretcher. They need one and I think that will be addressed in this draft – perhaps one of the next two picks.

17 Pittsburgh – LB Jarvis Jones: This makes as much sense as peanut better and jelly on toasted bread.

18 San Francisco – Eric Reid, Safety: Reid replaces Dashon Goldson. A good player who has room to get better and should do so on a defensive unit this good.

19 Giants – Guard Justin Pugh: Honestly, I don’t know much about him.

20 Chicago – Guard/OT Kyle Long: See above.

21 Cincinnati – Tight End Tyler Eifert: Joe Goodberry says Jermaine Gresham’s contract ends after 2014. Eifert has enough skill as a blocker to develop into a decent replacement with more consistent hands and routes than Gresham. I like the pick because Gresham will be the guy on the line of scrimmage and Eifert can play the Y tight end who moves around and presents problems for defenses in 12 personnel sets. This should help the run and pass game and the Bengals struggled on the ground. Of course, I don’t think they know their running back talent and that might be part of th problem, too.

22 Atlanta – Cornerback Desmond Trufant: Trufant fits the mold of a first-round corner: athletic, aggressive, and confident. He was also battle-tested due to a sub par defensive unit and perhaps the Falcons liked this about him as well. They know he’ll continue battling and not go into a shell when he gets beat.

23 Minnesota – Defensive Tackle Sharrif Floyd: Minnesota has some success developing linemen so I think it’s a good fit for Floyd, who has the potential to become an excellent 4-3 defensive tackle. The pad level has to get better, but this was a good place to take Floyd – rather than the top of the first round.

24. Indianapolis Defensive End/OLB Bjoern Werner: I like Werner as an outside linebacker/elephant-type Terrell Suggs prospect. The quickness and awareness at the line of scrimmage are good enough that I think Werner projects better here than a traditional defensive end.

25. Minnesota – Cornerback Xavier Rhodes:  I love this pick because Rhodes has a chance to become a shut-down corner. He has the most athletic upside of the corners in this class. I’ll say this, if the Vikings can get good quarterback play, they have the talent to contend in the NFC North. They are trying their best not to waste the talents of Adrian Peterson and I applaud them for being aggressive. See below.

26. Green Bay – Defensive End Datone Jones: A tough, aggressive defensive end who held his own against Eric Fisher and should bolster this Packers unit.

27. Houston – Wide Receiver DeAndre Hopkins: I think Hopkins was the safest receiver in this draft and the most likely to help the Texans now and develop into a primary option once Andre Johnson leaves. Hopkins is quick, physical, and reliable. He’ll exploit single coverage and should see plenty of it. If the Texans continue to use a run-heavy offense with a play action component, Hopkins will also get deep the way Hakeem Nicks can. It’s early, but one of my favorite skill position picks in this draft.

28.Denver – Defensive Tackle Sylvester Williams: Quick first step. I’ll let Cecil Lammey tell you about it next Thursday.

29.  Minnesota (trade w/New England) – Playmaker Cordarrelle Patterson: Patterson can return kicks, punts, work from the backfield, and catch passes. He’s a much better pass catcher than some characterize because his drops are not about issues with his hands, but issues of looking the ball into his body before he tries to run. It’s an obvious flaw for a player who might be the best run after the catch player I have seen in college football. This will scare football fans my age, but physically he reminds me a little of Michael Westbrook as a runner – strong agile, fast, and elusive. If he loves football more than Westbrook, he could be a player similar to Dez Bryant but perhaps even better with the ball in his hands and more versatile. I love this kind of move because the Vikings need help now and Patterson may not help immediately as a receiver the way Hopkins could have, the team should be smart enough to find ways to use Patterson in the offense and get big plays.

30 St. Louis – Linebacker Alec Ogletree: The Georgia linebacker will play outside in this scheme and his combination of athleticism and skill as a former safety make him a player that reminds me of former Jeff Fisher linebacker Keith Bullock. Ogletree lacks that refined skill, but I see why the Rams took him.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now.  Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

The 2013 RSP “Mocking the Mock”

0 Comments read Walk on the Wild Side
If football were more like the rasslin' she grew up watching with her grandfather, Paulette Mooney would be more interested in doing a full mock draft. Photo by John Jewell.
If football were more like the rasslin’ she grew up watching with her grandfather, Paulette Mooney would be more interested in doing a full mock draft. Photo by John Jewell.

I don’t do mock drafts. I have nothing against them. If I had more time, I’d probably get into them. They’re entertaining. And you can’t get much more entertaining than a Greg Cosell mock, unless of course you get my wife’s commentary layered over top – Paulette Mooney style with a Billy ‘Superstar’ Graham sensibility.

Reader Advisory: If you approach this NFL event as a Holy Day – avoid this sacrilegious piece. Otherwise . . . 

My wife doesn’t watch football much. They outlawed too many of the techniques that she thought were perfectly reasonable:

  • Clotheslines
  • Spearing
  • Headbutts
  • Eye Gouges
  • Horse Collars

You need to understand that my wife grew up in the country and was raised “country strong,” along the lines of Steve McNair. She tore her Achilles’ in January and ditched the crutches the next day and the walking boot the day after. She’s tired of hearing about “poor Kobe Bryant” because she’s already walking in heels and beginning an exercise regimen. The orthopedist asked if he could write something about her – I’m not kidding.

This is the mentality of a woman who grew up with a grandfather who worked at a sawmill most of his life and a social worker grandmother (think a more sophisticated and urbane Madea from Tyler Perry) who was given all the “hard cases” to straighten out. Farm life, fixing houses, and trying to avoid her grandfather’s tonic of lemon juice and moonshine when she got sick made her country strong. It’s the best I can explain about a woman who ran a 11.2-second, 100 and has a 19-foot long jump to her credit when her ‘warm up’ consisted of a pre-event cigarette.

Jene Bramel calls my wife Paulette Mooney, because much of her commentary veers into the realm of Paul Mooney’s comedy. Now that you understand a little about Paulette Mooney, here’s what went down when I explained a mock draft using Greg Cosell’s as an example.

I could only keep her attention for the first 18 picks before she was off to re-flooring the kitchen and re-facing kitchen cabinets. But if you know her – that’s an impressive number.

1. Kansas City Chiefs – Central Michigan Offensive Tackle, Eric Fisher:

Paulette stares at the photo of Fisher at the top of the Cosell article.

“Is that him? He looks like he could take out a tree – and he’d enjoy it . . . Oh my God, you know all those Army-Navy commercials to brainwash all the kids to join? [She begins to sing] Be proud, be strong . . . maybe it’s just the jersey with all those stars on it messing with me.”

“He’s fast, too,” I tell her.

Paulette rolls her eyes and responds with her best imitation of a sports anchor talking about Robert Griffin.

“Is he articulate, too? I bet he has such a good speaking voice – like Obama.”

My real take on Eric Fisher

Paulette agrees with Joeckel's dad. Photo by Zennie Abraham.
Paulette agrees with Joeckel’s dad. Photo by Zennie Abraham.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars – Texas A&M Offensive Tackle, Luke Joeckel:

Paulette squints at the name and makes a face.

“That’s a trailer park last name. Sounds like a guy I’d watch on ‘My Name is Earl’. I love that show. But he looks like he’s too nice”

“His dad once told him that he could be as nice as he wanted off the field, but to be mean on it.”

“I’m with pops on that philosophy . . . “

“I know – I’m already trying to figure out a way to keep us from getting banned from high school games if we have a son who plays.”

3. Oakland Raiders – Florida Defensive Tackle, Shariff Floyd: 

“Defensive tackle?”

“Yeah, they’re also often called ‘Nose Tackles’ they play across from the guy snapping the ball . . . “

“You mean you can go for people’s noses? I like that . . . ‘Sharrif,’ that’s a city name from up north.”

“Good guess. He’s from Philly – we really need to enter you into a contest.”

Paulette takes a look at Floyd’s highlights on YouTube.

“Some ugly uniforms . . .”

“When it comes to being a resident of Athens, there’s some hope for you yet.”

“He can manhandle some folks though. He and that Fisher guy are some corn-fed boys. You want some con-fed mother&%*@!$%.”

4. Philadelphia Eagles – Oregon Outside Linebacker Dion Jordan:

[youtube=http://youtu.be/FzQBOBoPg04]

“Dion? You gotta be strong to be a dude name ‘Dion’,” Paulette laughs and begins singing. “What do you get when you fall in love . . .”

“That’ ain’t right.”

Paulette looks at highlights of Jordan sacking Brock Osweiler last year.

“Who is that team in black?”

“Arizona State”

“They look like a S.W.A.T. team gone bad.”

“Remember that article I had to write that kept us from going to that Barry Manilow concert you wanted to see? [Editor’s note: Thank you, Football Outsiders]“

“Yeah. . . now I don’t like him. He’s smooth though . . .who was the other guy you had in that article?”

“Barkevious Mingo.”

“Unnhhh. Is he in this mock?”

“Yep.”

“Alright then . . . I got something to say about him and his mom, later.”

My real take on Dion Jordan

5. Detroit Lions – Oklahoma Offensive Tackle Lane Johnson:

“Well, thanks to his mom, he’ll get job with that name once he blows his Achilles’ tendon.”

“Lane? Really, you like that name?”

“That’s a nice name. That’s a dude I’d call if I got a speeding ticket.”

“Why?”

“It sounds professional, but kind of shady – just shady enough that he’ll get you off.”

Eifert and Ike Turner? Only with Paulette Mooney. Photo by Neon Tommy.
Eifert and Ike Turner? Only with Paulette Mooney. Photo by Neon Tommy.

6. Cleveland Browns – Notre Dame Tight End Tyler Eifert:

Paulette bursts into laughter.

“Who came up with the name ‘Tight end’?”

“Players who caught passes and were positioned at the end of the line were called ‘ends.’ The ones further away were ‘split’ from the formation and called ‘split ends’ the ones ‘tight’ to the line . . . “

“There’s nothing right about that name for a position – whether you’re a boy or a girl. And Tyler Eifert? What kind of name is that? All I can think about is Ike Turner saying, ‘Anna Mae!!!'”

“What?”

“I just see Ike whipping Tina’s ass in the back of a limo – I know that’s not funny, but in hindsight it kind of is now that you see Tina getting the last laugh. You know, that Eifert must have some kind of game because if Ike fooled Anna Mae this guy must be the same deal in football terms – a sneaky ass whooper.”

“Well, if any analytics guys read what you just said, they’ll probably say it’s proof positive that they don’t need me to ‘eyeball’ players.’

“Anal-lytics? Tight Ends? Wide Receivers?”

“Yep.”

Paulette collapses onto the coach and curls into the fetal position. Her body is shaking as she muffles the laughter into a pillow.

My real take on Tyler Eifert

7. Arizona Cardinals – West Virginia Wide Receiver, Tavon Austin:

“Tavon Austin.  He’s short isn’t he?”

“If he’s picked here, he’ll be the shortest player ever picked this high.”

“Is he related to Spud Webb – that’s my boy. Even if he played at Wake. That’s all I’ve got to say about Tavon”

My real take on Tavon Austin

Who needs analytics or scouting if you can just tell what he does by his first name? Photo by Crawford Orthodontics.
Who needs analytics or scouting if you can just tell what he does by his first name? Photo by Crawford Orthodontics.

8. Buffalo Bills, Outside Linebacker Barkevious Mingo:

“I bet he’s fast.”

“Why?”

“With that name he did a lot of running as a kid.”

“Oh Lord . . .”

“Tell his momma she needs to call me. We need to have a chat about resumes. How’s he gonna get paid outside of football with a name like that?”

“If he’s one of the [seemingly 5 percent] of NFL players who gets his finances right, he won’t need to. Check this out.”

[youtube=http://youtu.be/260jraqaArs]

“I LIKE him. He’s throwin’ people down and causing fights! That’s how a man gets paid! He has Taye Diggs’ teeth . . .can we fix him up with our daughter?”

“No.”

“Why not? “

“She has a boyfriend.”

“But he can’t even beat her in fantasy football.”

My real take on Barkevious Mingo

9. New York Jets – North Carolina Offensive Guard Jonathan Cooper:

“You’re a rising senior. Stay in school; get your paper.”

“But he’s really good. He stands to make a ton of money.”

“The other paper will still be waiting on you,” she says while looking at the highlights and commenting about the stupidity of long hair in football. “With a college degree he’ll be fine. If he gets hurt in the NFL he won’t get no money either.”

My real take on Jonathan Cooper

10. Tennessee Titans – Alabama Offensive Guard Chance Warmack:

“He’s a trailer boy, but his parents gave him a real name – good for him.”

Paulette guessed the UGA guys by their names. It's an intuitive thing. Photo by C. Vogle.
Paulette guessed the UGA guys by their names. It’s an intuitive thing. Photo by C. Vogle.

11. San Diego Chargers – Georgia Linebacker Alec Ogletree:

“All I can think of is Oglethorpe Street here in town.”

“Well he did play here in town.”

“Really? He’s one of our local kids? Why is he wearing a flag? This isn’t flag football? Georgia is always confusing me.”

My real take on Alec Ogletree

12. Miami Dolphins – Houston Cornerback D.J. Hayden

“Wait a minute, isn’t that who they’re talking about on TV?” Paulette watches Mike Mayock and Paul Burmeister hosting a mock draft on NFL Network.”That blond guy is about a second away from whistling through his teeth every time he uses a word with an ‘s’. A little distracting.”

“I hadn’t noticed.”

“Look at my husband trying to be nice. Good thing there’s no NFL team called the Sioux City-City Slickers. Every dog in a two-mile radius of a sports bar might come running. D.J. Hayden . . . what’s this about an island on the football field. There’s no island”

“Long story.”

“D.J. . . . Dee-Jay . . . All I can think of is this rap song from the 80s where the woman says ‘Dee-Jay please pick up the phone on the request line . . .’

“I knew there’d be an `80s reference dropped somewhere in here.”

“You know it!”

13. Pittsburgh Steelers – Georgia Outside Linebacker Jarvis Jones

“I like that name. It sounds like a Georgia name.”

“Why? [She’s right again]”

“Sounds homey and warm. He’s from some place like Illa – some place nobody ever heard of . . .”

“He plays here in town. I think he is an in-state guy,” I look it up and sure enough, Richland, Georgia.

“Richland? Have you heard of it?

“I’ve lived here all my life and never heard of it.”

Paulette watches some tape of Jones and points to the screen.

“I like sacks. Does he do that a lot?”

“Yep.”

“That’s all I need to know.”

14. Carolina Panthers – Missouri Defensive Tackle Sheldon Richardson:

What’s his major? Chemistry?

“Why? His name?”

“Yeah. Sounds like anything, but ‘Sharrif’.”

“Agriculture?”

“And he’s not finishing?” Paulette looks at the highlights. “Yeah . . . he’s gone.”

15. New Orleans Saints – Utah Defensive Tackle Star Lotulelei”

“He’s one of them corn-fed guys. Do they have corn in Hawaii?”

“He’s Samoan. I guess this talent for names only applies to the continental U.S”

“I like him. He can tear people up.”

My real take on Star Lotulelei

All he needs is Whoppers. Photo by Mike Pettigano.
All he needs is Whoppers. Photo by Mike Pettigano.

16. St. Louis Rams – Alabama Running Back Eddie Lacy:

“That’s my dog.”

“I know, you liked him over the North Carolina guy [Giovani Bernard]”

“You can’t tell me people that . . . nah, you can tell ’em. North Carolina is a basketball school. But that football program is getting better.”

“You know Lacy was out of shape and couldn’t finish his workouts.”

“He’s been eating too much of that supposed, ‘nutritious’ food. He needs some fat back and greens from the farm.”

“Like he needs a heart attack.”

“Just stay off Eddie and that work-out.  He’ll be fine. What’s his address? I’m going to send him some Whoppers with Cheese.”

My real take on Eddie Lacy

17. Pittsburgh Steelers – Alabama Cornerback Dee Milliner:

“Cornerback? They cover the wide recei – ” Paulette erupts into laughter.

My real take on Dee Milliner

18. Dallas Cowboys – Texas Safety Kenny Vaccaro:

“I like the name ‘Vaccaro’. Kennnaaaay . . . VaCCARRRRROOOO. I bet he has the Rico Suave thing happening. Is he covering wide ends, too?”

“No but tight ones.”

Paulette breaks into rhyme:

So please don’t judge a book by its cover
There’s more to being a latin lover
You got to know how to deal with a woman
That won’t let go
The price you pay for being a gigolo

Because he’s Kennnaaayy Vaccarrrrooo.

My real take on Kenny Vaccaro And yes, she really likes that song and likes his game.

Til next year . . .

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Nx64_N4AA04]

For (non-Paulette Mooney) analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Playmaker

0 Comments read Players, Wide Receiver
Patterson may not be a Playmaker according to Football Outsider's score, but he is one in my book. Photo by Nashville Corps.
Photo by Nashville Corps.

Cordarrelle Patterson may not be a playmaker according to Football Outsider’s Playmaker Score, but the elusive receiver with skills as a receiver that many top prospects-turned-busts lacked is worth the risk in my book. Find out where I think the Combine, production, and film study have a place in this discussion of this versatile, athletic, wildcard.

When it comes to evaluating football talent, I believe analytics can be a part of the conversation. The Playmaker Score is a good example.

I think the Playmaker Score is a nice attempt at data mining where Vince Verhei has reverse-engineered a formula with the hope of developing a successful model to predict future results. The score does enough to have value in discussions about specific wide receiver prospects, but Playmaker is not the entire conversation.

I believe player evaluation can be likened to a three-legged, wooden table:

  • Technical skill
  • College production
  • Athleticism

If one of these legs is missing or not factored into an evaluation enough, the table doesn’t function as it should. The fourth factor is character, but I think it’s best considered as liquid -– either it enhances, like a wood stain, or degrades, like water spot.

Scouting is such a hit-or-miss process because no one has figured out a way to consistently make all three legs of the table functional for every player evaluation. Nor can they predict if the player’s character will enhance or ruin the “table.”

The Playmaker Score has a grim outlook for this group of wide receivers. In contrast, many scouts and analysts tout the position as deep and talented. Before going any further, here is Vince’s overview of Playmaker:

When we first devised our Playmaker Score projection system to predict NFL success for wide receivers, we looked at individual collegiate production only. A second version added team statistics to account for players who might have seen their numbers inflated by prolific passing offenses. This year, with Playmaker Score 3.0, we’ve added Combine data for the first time. Now we’re measuring not just football skills, but raw physical talent.

We’ve made one other fundamental change to Playmaker Score, and it involves the way collegiate data is handled. In the past, using career totals considerably underrated those players who were so spectacular that they skipped their senior seasons and entered the draft early, while using per-game numbers depressed the ratings for guys who had lots of one- and zero-catch games as freshmen and sophomores before exploding as juniors and seniors. We tried to get around this by using a mix of career totals and per-game data, but the results were a little confusing and somewhat illogical. So we’ve gone back to the drawing board, and we’re now using the numbers from each player’s best season. This makes the most sense because it rewards the biggest stars at the expense of more mediocre players who pad their statistics with multiple starting seasons. Obviously, there’s now a danger of overestimating one-year wonders, but we’re working on some methods to correct for that in the future.

We checked the numbers for every receiver drafted from 2005 to 2009, a group of 149 players. That gave us five years’ worth of recent history, while giving every player at least three years to break out in the NFL. For each player, we determined their NFL success by dividing their career receiving yardage by the number of seasons that had passed since, whether they were still in the league or not. We also compared their Combine numbers to their NFL statistics and checked which were most accurate when it came to predicting NFL success.

Playmaker Score addresses the basic question of how good the quarterback is when it comes to giving his receiver opportunities for production. However, I think zeroing in on passes per game as a factor makes Playmaker Score a slave to a specific kind of receiver production that doesn’t tell the entire story.

Problems Endemic to Football Evaluation

Playmaker does not fully address all the dimensions of production that can make a wide receiver a playmaker. Yards after catch is a significant example, although not a purposeful oversight. The staff here at Football Outsiders would love to have this data, but the college game does not supply it in an easily available format.

However, this is part of the reason why I think the revised 2011 Playmaker Scores missed on A.J. Green (227 points) and Randall Cobb (136 points), but it liked Jonathan Baldwin (464 points) and Torrey Smith (448 points). I think Baldwin and Smith played in offenses that were suited to what Playmaker Score rewards players for: red-zone production and longer plays from pitch-to-catch. It doesn’t factor in ball carrying of any sort, and that’s part of what it missed about Green and Cobb.

I liked Smith’s prospects, but I wasn’t high on Baldwin. One of the reasons reflects what is missing from Playmaker: it is a formula based on production and athleticism (as measured by certain sprints and jumps, at least) but it doesn’t account for technical skill.

However, I’m jumping the gun on technique. The athleticism factor also requires more discussion.

The way Playmaker uses Combine data is a problem endemic to the area of football evaluation. I believe the primary function of the Combine should first be to determine which players have the baseline speed, strength, quickness, and size to perform at an NFL level. Instead, there is too much emphasis placed on stronger-faster-higher-longer.

Playmaker’s inclusion of Combine measurements assumes that the better (certain) Combine numbers, the better the player. I think most people make this assumption, and it’s easy to do: Some people believe Calvin Johnson is a better player than Dez Bryant because he jumps higher, runs faster, and does it in a bigger body.

Athleticism is a baseline requirement, but there is a point where a player’s value can be inaccurately inflated or depressed because technical skill or capacity to learn the game isn’t properly accounted for. To give examples, we have A.J. Green on one hand, and Robert Meachem on the other.

Green had actually scored high in the previous version of Playmaker (v2.0) but does not fare well in the current version because of the Combine metrics. His NFL Combine metrics were NFL-quality, but not stellar. Yet what the formula misses, game observation catches: aplayer who gets the most from his athleticism because he integrates his physical and technical skill sets at a high level to make plays.

Meachem, on the other hand, was a fast prospect, but he couldn’t catch the ball with his hands away from his body. I admired his efforts as a senior at Tennessee to extend his arms to the football, but he often had to revert to a trap technique.

One example I recall was a game in Tennessee against LSU. Meachem dropped three passes in the first quarter alone while trying to use proper hands technique. He then reverted to a trap technique for the rest of the game.

While I admired Meachem for trying, some technical skills are more difficult to learn at this stage of football than others. Receivers who don’t make receptions with their hands away from their frames are unlikely to acquire these skills when they transition to the pro game.

This issue is what I would term a fatal error. Difficulty securing the ball after contact from a defender during the act of the reception can also be a fatal error when it comes to evaluating the technical skill potential of a prospect.

Although Meachem eventually made some strides to improve this skill, he has never been comfortable enough to make a complete transition. He has not become the impact player commensurate with his first-round grade. These two flaws were why I didn’t like Meachem’s chances of doing that, and he proved me right.

As for other examples from 2011, I loved Green (my No. 1 rated receiver in 2011), Randall Cobb (No. 3) and Torrey Smith (No. 5). In contrast, Jonathan Baldwin (No.13) was an overrated commodity in my book. Green, Cobb and Smith demonstrated excellent skill versus contact and both Green and Cobb were strong players after the catch. Baldwin’s hands techniques were spotty and his technique and conceptual execution of routes were inconsistentat best.

I think a better way to view measures of athleticism is to, as I said, first assess if it meets the baseline requirements to play in the NFL. Then assess if that player also meets baselines for skill level/capacity to learn the skills.

Once an evaluator establishes that the prospect has the basic tools, I think the fast-stronger-longer-higher quality of the Combine measurements become a refining characteristic to the evaluation process. The same goes for productivity metrics.

The problem is that we want to throw these tools into the evaluation process at a premature stage. As a result, the data can often overestimate (or underestimate) the value of players.

Cordarrelle Patterson is a good example . . .  Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Boiler Room: Michigan State RB Le’Veon Bell

0 Comments read Players, Reads Listens Views, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Running Back
This piece on Bell is unlikely to convince you to change your opinion of him, but it does underscore why teams will be forced to make a decision and stand by it. Photo by Matt Radickal.
This piece on Bell is unlikely to convince you to change your opinion of him, but it does underscore why teams will be forced to make a decision and stand by it. Photo by Matt Radickal.

A polarizing player in the draft community engenders endless debate – even after we see that player on an NFL field. If he succeeds his backers believe that the detractors over analyzed the situation. If the prospect struggles the  naysayers will claim the backers didn’t see enough. In this sense Le’Veon Bell is a polarizing player in this draft.

The Boiler Room series is designed to be succinct with delivering the goods about a player. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play – especially when a player invokes a major difference of opinion. Yet, if I need a play to add to the highlight reel that will help a team make a decision where to slot Le’Veon Bell on its board, I have a nomination – in this case, I have three. These plays demonstrate Bell’s, strength, burst, quickness, and agility – but do they show enough to settle the debate about Bell’s quickness?

This run against Minnesota is a beautiful combination of moves that rival any Madden video game replay.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyflNp4qTO8?start=27rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Bell slides inside the double team from his tackle and tight end and takes two steps to set up a spin move inside a block at the hash, and then a step and plant to spin outside. I doubt Bell will be able to replicate this play again in his career, because I think it’s a product of his ability, the play, and the defense, but he is the first back I’ve seen execute a combo of inside and outside spins in this proximity of each other in quite a while and that counts for something.

Comment on the size of the hole, the blocking, and the defense all you want, but Bell’s spins were tight, quick, and balanced. He also kept his footing to gained 10 yards after the second spin. If Bell can demonstrate this kind of skill in the NFL, he’ll be a lead back whose only limitations will be his development in the passing game.

Bell’s supporters point to a powerful, 6’1″,230-lb. runner who has the frame to rival Ronnie Brown, but detractors see him as a sluggish player who only does good work through wide creases so he can build momentum and bully defenders after contact. The play above began with a wide crease. So does this one below.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceZo8Vf7fnc?start=12rel=0&w=560&h=315]

The reads on this gap style play were straight forward and the blocking opened a huge backside crease to the inside, which Bell hits hard and gets down hill. I like the burst I see here, but his detractors may say the acceleration is deceptive due to the width of the hole.

Those who believe in Combine measurements will say that Bell’s 6.75-second, three-cone time was faster than Doug Martin and Stevan Ridley and the same as Jahvid Best, a back 31 pounds lighter. If LaGarrette Blount could pass protect and be a good citizen, there might not have been a need for a running back in Tampa Bay last year and Blount had much slower agility times than Bell. I thought Blount was quick enough. I haven’t seen anything to dissuade me about Bell’s athleticism.

I think the most balanced criticism I’ve heard is that Bell makes too many decisions like a scat back. They say if Bell can mature enough to temper his use of spin moves, hurdles, and reversals of field and only use them as a change-up to a powerful, downhill style, he has a chance to become a valuable starter.

This play below is a good demonstration of the power Bell flashes when he keeps it simple.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceZo8Vf7fnc?start=55rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Good blocking to the edge, but Bell is fast enough to exploit it and also strong enough to push the pile for extra yards. The pad level and leg drive  are positives here. If Bell can show more often when and when not to use the skills you’ve seen from all three highlights, then he’ll have a productive NFL career.

These plays won’t settle any debates. If you believe these plays are a product of his line and inferior competition then you won’t view Bell as one of the better running back prospects in this draft. If you believe Bell will have the quickness to execute these plays consistently in the NFL then you think the Spartans runner is an underrated commodity who belongs near the top-tier of runners.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 4/19/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
If Davis can hold onto the ball after the catch as well as he holds onto after contact in the act of the reception, he could have a nice NFL career. Photo by Go Iowa State.
Coming this weekend – a No-Huddle edition featuring Iowa WR Keenan Davis. A better prospect than you may think. Photo by Go Iowa State.

More draft analysis on the way from RSPHQ – including more from the No-Huddle Series and Boiler Room and my take on Cordarrelle Patterson from the perspective of Football Outsiders and its Playmaker Score. If you’re new to the RSP blog, welcome to my Friday post Reads Listens Views, my chance to share things I’ve been checking out in recent weeks – football and non-football alike.

Listens

Joseph Tawadros plays the Oud, which is the daddy of the Lute. It’s a beautiful, soulful instrument and this tune is has a steady simmer worth a listen.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/aND8DYDfXQU]

Thank You

I think we’ve all been in a situation where you have the ability to help a friend, but you don’t think he wants your assistance. However, it’s obvious that you’d be just the person to help and he never utters a peep to indicate he wants it. Sigmund Bloom had that experience with me in recent years. He kidded me recently about me never asking him to write anything to tell my readers why they should buy the RSP.

I was embarrassed. I just figured most folks knew Bloom as my friend and colleague so it made more sense to share testimonials from folks who, relative to Bloom, don’t know me from Adam. But I am honored that Bloom wants to share his view of the RSP. Especially when he publishes an always excellent collection of Scouting Reports and rankings. There’s his great work at B/R and the iconic, Bloom 100. If you’re a fantasy owner, the Bloom 100 is a MUST-READ because its writer distills each class into a simple list of tiers with a rookie draft in mind. It takes a strong grasp of player talent and fantasy football dynamics to pull off as well as Bloom.

Here’s Bloom’s thoughts on the RSP and I’d like to thank him for asking me to share it:

The Rookie Scouting Portfolio is the best guide to the QB, RB, WR, and TE talents in the draft because it goes deeper than any other guide. Because Matt shows his math with hundreds of intensely detailed individual game breakdowns. Because it ranks prospects not just overall, but for each attribute. Because if you read between the lines, Matt is teaching you how to scout these positions, what to look for, how to articulate what you see. It’s a must for any serious football fan, fantasy football player, or anyone that wants to get smarter about watching football.

If you haven’t bought the RSP before, I can say with pride that you’ll get as much out of it as I put into it – and I put everything I can into it. My readers will tell you they love it. If you’re on fence, I am confident that you’ll realize this is one of those cases where there’s little hype to what I’m saying here. Plus, I donate 10 percent of each sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit whose mission is to prevent and combat sexual abuse through community training and awareness.

Download the RSP now and know that with your purchase, you also get access to the Post-Draft publication when I announce it available within the week after the NFL Draft. At the very least, follow this blog click on the link on the left to follow and you’ll receive email updates when I post new articles. Then consider supporting the site (and do yourself a favor at the same time) by downloading the publication.

Views

Mine Kafon – Thanks to Jeff Haseley for sharing this invention, which is a sobering reminder that we’re all special people and special people are dying everyday around the world due to explosives.

Football Reads

Listens

The Dave Holland Quintet is one of the best bands in music today. They are at the top of my list of groups to see.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/E2qIZ-BwiE4]

Non-Football Reads

  • Serenity Amidst A Sea Of Haze – Adrian Landin is a world traveler and blogger of his experiences who sometimes hits me up for fantasy advice when Internet is available. Landin’s blog is a collection of excellent photography. This post is about witnessing 12,999 Buddhist monks walking the main street in a city in Thailand. I think what he captures is worth sharing. Especially if you need 10 minutes to feel transported from your current surroundings.
  • How Quickly the U.S. Got Fat  – It ain’t pretty, but it ain’t over either – we can do something about this one if we choose.
  • The 10-Year Hoodie – One U.S. company’s commitment to make a quality product built to last the way things used to before much of Corporate America went beyond greedy and turned into a virus.
  • Think Those Chemicals Have Been Tested? – Many Americans assume that the chemicals in their shampoos, detergents and other consumer products have been thoroughly tested and proved to be safe. This assumption is wrong.
  • U.S. Practiced Torture after 9-11 – And it put our troops in greater danger.

Futures: Why Scouting Gets a Bum Rap – A Front Office Overhaul

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
It's time to take front offices to the Wood Shed. No beatings though. Photo by Richard Elzey.
It’s time to take front offices to the wood shed. No beatings though. Photo by Richard Elzey.

Scouting gets a bum rap.

“Of course Waldman would say this,” you proclaim. “He’s a scout!”

I may perform the fundamental role of one, but I am not a scout. This elicits laughter from my friend Ryan Riddle. The Bleacher Report columnist who holds Cal’s single season sack record and played with the Raiders, Ravens, and Jets says I have a misplaced sense of honor when it comes to refusing to wear that label.

I prefer talent evaluator, tape watcher, tapehound, or tapehead. My friends – if I have any left since I started doing this work eight years ago – might say ‘Film Hermit’ is the best fit. I’ve never worked for an NFL team, so these names seem more suitable to me. Scouts have responsibilities that I don’t – among them is reporting to management within a company structure.

If you have the chance to learn about the pre-draft process for most NFL teams, scouting is the study of a player’s positive and negative characteristics. It’s also an evaluation of how easy it is to fix the player’s issues and his potential fit within a team system. But based on what former scouts, coaches, and general managers of NFL teams say about the machinations that go into a team’s draft, I am thankful that I am not a scout.

While fans and writers may take the lazy route and blame picks gone wrong on poor scouting, it’s the general manager, coach, and owner who hold the weight of the decision-making power. This is a huge reason why scouting gets a bum rap.

To take it a step further, I’ll advance the popular Bill Parcells analogy of ‘buying the groceries.’ I can spend months in the grocery store and tell you that it has quality cuts of grass-fed steak; a delicious, rosemary batard baked in-house; and every variety of apple found in North America. But if those holding the wallet or cooking the food demand a papaya, I can tell them until I’m blue in the face that if they want a good one, it’s only found in Jamaica and they’re still going to pick an unripe one, take it home, prepare it, and then watch it spoil the meal.

It doesn’t help matters when I have to read Mike Tanier describe draft analysis as a pseudoscience. He’s right for the wrong reasons. Scouting is a craft, not a science. However, teams haven’t made it the same priority to address opportunities to improve scouting the way they have upgraded technology and embraced other forms of analysis.

With all the advances that the NFL has made with equipment, strategy, cap management, and technology, they haven’t done enough to advance the process of talent evaluation. It shouldn’t the sports equivalent of Madam Zora’s, but until teams address the problems, Tanier gets to write entertaining draft pieces at their expense.

I think there is a lot that teams can do to improve their talent evaluation processes. What I will propose here are things I’ve learned from my experience in operations and process improvement. I base my solutions on problems I’ve gleaned in conversations with former scouts, reading and listening to former NFL general managers talk about their past roles, and extensive study of college prospects for the past eight years.

Some of these ideas may be new to the NFL, but I don’t begin to think they are revolutionary in the scope of other industries. I’m sharing these things because it’s too easy to listen to a gray-haired man in a suit on a television network and take what he says as gospel – especially processes that are in fact fundamentally flawed and then perpetuated from generation to generation of football men.

When viewing NFL front offices and how they cope with change, I get the impression that many of them have a buttoned-up, low-risk culture similar in dynamic to Wall Street. It also takes a lot for newer ideas to take hold in an NFL front office as it does for an investment bank to accept “new blood” from a business school lacking a history of established connections with the firm as a personnel pipeline.

Some of what I’ll suggest is not even about new ideas; just better implementation of old concepts. The first point below is a good example where leaders tend to talk the talk better than they walk it.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

No-Huddle Series: UConn TE Ryan Griffin

0 Comments read Players, Tight End
If you ask me, Ryan Griffin is a similar style prospect to Visanthe Shiancoe, but with better hands. Photo by xoque.
If you ask me, Ryan Griffin is a similar style prospect to Visanthe Shiancoe, but with better hands. Photo by xoque.

I love Draftbreakdown.com. We all love Draftbreakdown.com.  Those guys help me look less like I’m profiling poor comics art.

But today, I have to go old-school and use stills with UConn tight end Ryan Griffin. It isn’t Draftbreakdowns’s fault. Their lack of attention to this prospect is a reflection of the sheer ignorance that the national media has when it comes to this prospect. No one has games posted of this Connecticut tight end Ryan Griffin, once considered a good – if not top-tier – prospect at his position at the end of 2011.

I don’t know what changed, but if you ask me, it’s a draft-season injustice. I know quite a few tape hounds agree with me. Dane Brugler is a prominent witness ready to testify. I wouldn’t even need to call him to the stand. He’d be shouting it from the cheap seats of the courtroom.

If I were into video production, I’d correct this travesty “right quick and in a hurry,” but that’s not my specialty. I will give you the next-best thing. What I enjoyed most about watching this 6’6″, 254-pound tight end in two games against Pitt (2011-2012) and one at Syracuse is his sneaky athleticism. Before you know it, you realize that you’re witnessing an NFL-caliber athlete in action.

2nd-and-three Drag 

RG A1

This is an I formation two-tight end set with Griffin on the wing to the quarterback’s right. The offensive runs a play-action pass with a roll out the opposite direction of the fake. This backside roll-out to the tight end on the drag route is one of the oldest plays around. Griffin slants inside, places a hand on the edge defender and then sprints right to the flat.

RG A2

The ball arrives on-time and at the numbers for Griffin to extend his arms and make the catch with his hands. Although his hands could be extended a little more from his body, I like how he turns his frame to the ball to present a good target. There’s another practical reason to for a receiver to turn his chest to the ball: in case he has a lapse of coordination and the ball goes through his hands. If his chest is square to the incoming pass, there’s a greater surface area for the ball to bounce off his body towards his hands.

This technique gives the receiver another chance to catch the football whereas if his back shoulder is behind his outstretched arms, the ball is more likely to ricochet off the shoulder and behind the receiver, increasing the likelihood of a defender earning a shot at the rebound.

RG A3

The UConn tight end secures the ball to his sideline arm, turns up field, and extends his separation from the backside pursuit. The yellow arrow in the upper left corner of this still is the path of the cornerback about to appear in this picture that seems like a lot of empty space for a ball carrier to roam.

RG A4

Griffin has enough quickness to gain seven yards before the cornerback travels two and breaks down to attempt a tackle. Griffin isn’t the fastest tight end in this class, but he can move. It will be an pervasive theme throughout this analysis.

RG A5

RG A6

Griffin hurdles the Panthers corner, who breaks down too early. The UConn tight end is not ready for the high hurdles in a track and field event, but the move is fluid, well-timed, and effective. It qualifies as athletic by NFL standards.

RG A7

I also like that Griffin sticks the landing in stride at the 25, and continues moving as the backside linebacker closes. Griffin nearly runs through the hit to his ankles. The play ends when his knee hit the 21. While the play call was a huge factor in this 23-yard gain, Griffin’s execution and athleticism deserves props.

1st-and-10 Corner 

Griffin also demonstrates sideline awareness as a receiver and can make the smaller adjustments necessary to work the perimeter. This 12 personnel 1×1 receiver set has Griffin as the right end next to right tackle before the snap.

RG B1

As the receiver at the top of the screen motions across the formation to the wing behind Griffin, the safety over top creeps to the line of scrimmage. The safety doesn’t pose a direct problem for Griffin’s release, but it does congest the release area just enough that the tight end has to have a good plan to avoid the defensive end’s jam.

RG B2

This is not as easy to see as video, but Griffin does a find job of reducing his inside shoulder to avoid the contact of the defensive end and get a free path up the seam. I personally like this technique because it allows Griffin to avoid his opponent and maintain a position where he can drive off the line of scrimmage and achieve good acceleration into his stem. This release helps Griffin work past the linebacker dropping to the flat and avoid subsequent contact (see below).

RG B3

The Pitt defense is play zone coverage and the quarterback has three reads to this side. I wouldn’t be surprised if the reads on this 1st-and-10 play go short to long because the flat and hook routes break first. The coverage is good enough in the flats that the quarterback waits for Griffin to make his break towards the corner.

RG B4

The quarterback waits long enough for the tight end to get behind the safety before delivering the ball at the sideline. Griffin once again turns his shoulders and chest to the target and extends his arms to the football as he’s closing on the boundary. The next two stills demonstrate good hands, quick feet, and boundary awareness all working in coordination.

RG B5

RG B6

I like what I see with the little techniques and the they are all important when seeking a player with NFL skills. However, these are all basic plays in the tight end canon that you seek from any NFL option that will play at the line of scrimmage. What makes the lack of coverage of Griffin disappointing is his skill split away from the formation.

3rd-and-eight Post

Although Griffin doesn’t make the catch on this play, there is a lot to like here. First, is the confidence that UConn has in the tight end’s athleticism to split him wide of the formation against a cornerback in press coverage.

RG C1

At the snap, the corner throws his hands towards Griffin’s chest, but the tight end is prepared for the jam. He greets his opponent’s effort by using his inside hand to meet the defender’s hands with a swat and then uses his outside arm to swim over the corner to get a clean release to the inside. This is hard to see below, but if you look close enough you get the idea.

RG C2

Swat with inside arm . . .

RG C3Swim move with outside arm (yellow).

RG C4Inside release and driving up field.

The quarterback slides to his right to avoid pressure as Griffin maintains separation inside the corner and works behind the safety towards an open window to the post near the hash. The quarterback should lead the tight end inside  as much as possible.

RG C5

I think the quarterback should have thrown the ball to the region of this box inside the the goal post and over the safety to the right of it. Instead the quarterback’s pass is in the region outside the goal post and this gives the cornerback a chance to work behind Griffin and play the ball.

RG C6

RG C7

With a veteran NFL quarterback, this target results in a touchdown because of better pass placement inside. There’s not much more anyone could have expected from the tight end on this play. He executes a good move to wkr though the press coverage and get separation on a cornerback, but the quarterback doesn’t come through. A better throw and this is s touchdown, a highlight, and probably does a little more to pique the interest of the football media that is sometimes obsesses with the latest, greatest, shiny-new toy.

1st-and-10 Flat

Speaking of shiny-new baubles, here’s a play that I believe Griffin makes better than Zach Ertz on a consistent basis – receptions on low throws in coverage.

RG D1

Griffin finishes a solid speed cut to break outside and I like that as he makes the break he gets a little more depth to work behind the first down marker (below) before he comes back to the ball.

RG D2

Griffin slides as the ball arrives and extends his arms to get them under the football so he can still make the catch with his hands. The entire play, Griffin is in control despite leaving his feet and reaching low for the ball.

RG D3

While Ertz makes these plays on occasion, he is rarely displaying this level of balance to attack the ball. Ertz often looks like a big man making an adjustment. Griffin who is not much smaller just looks like a man doing his job. On the following play, Griffin works from the slot, swims inside the contact of the safety in single coverage and beats him to the goal line for the touchdown. I’m not showing it because it’s not much different from what you’ve seen from him on earlier post route split wide against the cornerback.

Griffin is the type of prospect who I believe will have a longer career than half the players ranked above him and he’s a sneaky-good player to add to your fantasy rosters during the summer if beat writers begin to take a shine to him. If not, don’t be surprised if two years from now he has infiltrated the lineup as a subpackage receiver making plays and your buddy on the couch is screaming WHO IS THIS GUY?

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Boiler Room: Oregon St. WR Markus Wheaton

0 Comments read Players, Reads Listens Views, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Wide Receiver
My best three skill players at the Senior Bowl? Markus Wheaton, Quinton Patton, and Tyler Wilson would have earned my votes. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.
NFL.com/Rotoworld’s Josh Norris had me pegged when he said last fall that Markus Wheaton was my kind of player. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.

Wheaton is my favorite wide receiver in this draft. There are dozens of plays I’d like to show you and then there’s another dozen of one-on-one moments where he shined against a good class of corners at the Senior Bowl practices. He might not be the best receiver in this class, but I think he’s up there and I’m going to show you why.

A series I started this year at the RSP blog is The Boiler Room. One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play. Yet, if I need a play to add to the highlight reel that will help a team make a decision where to slot Markus Wheaton on its board, this is my nomination despite the play after this one on the video is a beautiful touchdown just inside the end line (make sure to watch it).

Wheaton vs. UCLA 

This target displays just about everything you want to see from a vertical threat because it begins with single coverage and ends with safety help that was good enough to derail a reception, but didn’t. I like physical players – it’s my old, AFC Central roots – and “physical” play is as much about taking the licks and making the play as dishing them out. Wheaton is small, but he plays like he owns you.

Oregon State is in a standard 11 personnel, 1×2 receiver set with Wheaton at the top of the screen with a cornerback pressing the line of scrimmage. The UCLA defense has both corners tight and seven defenders at the line threatening blitz. The strong safety is in the flat and accounting for the slot receiver on the twin side of the Oregon State formation. Here is the play in its entirety and then I’ll break it down with stills.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bIs0pFOkR74&start=79rel=0&w=560&h=315]

It’s a nice, garden-variety NFL catch that a player like Domenik Hixon makes all the time.  So why choose it if a reserve NFL wide receiver can make it? For starters, Hixon is a deceptive player. Not all receivers make this play – especially vertical talents with Wheaton’s speed. Many of these players are one-dimensional and get drafted on the promise that they can become fully formed weapons. While not completely one-dimensional, Marquise Goodwin is closer to this negative characterization of his game than Wheaton.

The first thing I like about this play is Wheaton’s willingness to use his hands as the aggressor and to own his space. He doesn’t get jammed at the beginning of the play, but once the receiver works outside the corner that is when the physical play begins.

MWA1Wheaton’s competition turns outside to use his hands, but it is Wheaton who establishes first contact with his inside arm. The intent of this contact is to maintain his space between the flat at the sideline. A receiver who allows the defender to bump him outside creates a narrower target for the quarterback to throw the fade. While I could have shown you some nice hand work from Wheaton in other highlights, I think this aspect of vertical routes is the one that holds back many fast, strong, and stick-fingered prospects.

Wheaton may get bumped off course early in his NFL career because an NFL veteran throws something at him that he didn’t anticipate, but at least I know he understands what he’s supposed to do and how to execute it on the field. If a players illustrates these skills at the college game and has the physical prowess to hang with NFL athletes then I’m optimistic of his chances of making a successful transition.

MWA2Despite some hand fighting, Wheaton has given up little if any horizontal space, but his speed is good enough to gain separation even while engaged in contact and unable to pump both arms or drive down field with his shoulders over his knees.

MWA3As Wheaton lengthens his vertical separation, I especially like that his hands remain low as he uses his eyes to track the ball. Despite having a step on the defender his hands are tipping off how close the ball in its trajectory to the receiver. This is another trick of the trade the separates that raw speedster who impresses fans enamored with stopwatch times from true NFL vertical threats with real potential for a lasting career as a starter.

MWA4

Not two steps later, Wheaton turns to the ball and extends his arms. Although he catches the ball with his hands on most targets, I have heard some criticisms that Wheaton should extend his arms more to attack the ball. This play is a good example. However, I believe the fact that he’s good at hiding his intentions to make a play on the ball until the last moment often compensates. It doesn’t mean this criticism is invalid, but I do believe in many cases it’s less of a concern.

MWA5Note how Wheaton has the luxury of horizontal space to bend away from the defender to make the catch. I cannot emphasize enough how important it is for a receiver to leave space between him and the sideline to make these adjustments. Most games involve establishing and maintaining position and this is just one of countless examples in football.

MW A6Wheaton brings the ball from his helmet to his side and demonstrates good ball security as the cornerback has nothing to grab but the receiver’s forearm. The best hope for UCLA’s defense to dislodge the football is from the safety’s impending hit.

MWA7

No dice. It doesn’t appear this photo reveals much, but take a closer look at the receiver’s feet. The way Wheaton’s feet are pointed you can see that he has turned his body away from the incoming contact so the hit arrives at the receiver’s back rather than his arm. To demonstrate the skill to protect his body and the ball after making an athletic adjustment on a vertical route like this takes awareness and fluidity.

I value these little things about Wheaton’s game and it’s these small details that could make a big difference when he gets to the NFL.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.