Posts tagged 2013 NFL Draft

Futures: The Hybrid RB Evolution

March 27, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Patriots RB Shane Vereen is a good example of the influx of backs capable of making receiver-like adjustments on the football. Photo by John Martinez Paviliga.

March is the month that I take 14-to-18 months of research and use it to generate rankings and analysis for the April 1 Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication. The labor involved in this compressed time period involves a workweek with hours averaging in the triple digits. I believe this will be the last year I have to do it this way.

I’m disclosing this because when you spend close to 100 hours in a five-day span reviewing play-by-play reports, scouting checklists, NFL Combine measurements, and watching several dozen sequences of plays another half-dozen times in order to write about running backs, you see things that you want to share. I’m not talking about hallucinations –- although I admit that I engaged in a brief, one-sided conversation with the side-view mirror of a red pickup truck parked near my favorite lunch spot in downtown Athens during the hour I took each day to leave the office that didn’t involve sleep.

That brief one-sided conversation reminded me of something Doug Farrar observed while having lunch at the Senior Bowl: Southern folk seem more accepting of eccentric behavior. I thought he was referring to someone else until that moment.

That Farrar is a perceptive guy.

Other than the realization that I’m eccentric, one of the big takeaways I had from these marathon analysis sessions of this running back class is that I think the NFL could be on the precipice of a more widespread change with how teams use the position in the passing game.

The hybridization of the NFL has been in progress for years. Marshall Faulk, Reggie
Bush, and Darren Sproles are the popular choices as heads on the pro game’s Mount Rushmore of runner-receiver hybrids. Personally, James Brooks would be my fourth bust in that crew.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/F68uk_EKCrs?start=110]

Brooks caught the ball away from his body on difficult passes even by wide receiver standards. And compared to other NFL backs of his era, Brooks saw a lot of downfield targets that many teams wouldn’t consider throwing to their runners.

These four would be my choices as the players who have ushered in the dawning of the hybrid runner era. Bush and Sproles have made splitting the back from the formation a more common and desirable practice, but Brooks and Faulk were evolutionary oddities. In fact, I’d argue that Faulk’s ability to run intermediate routes like a starting receiver made the Rams back ahead of his time in the same way that Jim Brown’s speed, change of direction, and short-area explosiveness in a 232-pound frame was ahead of the curve.

What is happening at the college level may be approaching a future that Faulk provided fans a glimpse of. The future is beyond the long handoffs and the occasional wheel and seam routes that Bush and Sproles execute. It’s the ability of runners of all shapes and sizes to make plays on targets in tight coverage or to see primary targets on so-called, “50/50 balls” –- even passes where backs are “thrown open” by design.

And it’s not just scat backs seeing these targets; prototypical bell cow backs and short-yardage types are getting into the act. This is a bold step forward in the evolutionary line of the position.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

No-Huddle Series: Boise State RB D.J. Harper

March 25, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Running Back

For a time, D.J. Harper was considered the best back at Boise State - and Doug Martin was on the team . Photo by Football Schedule. — For a time, D.J. Harper was considered the best back at Boise State – and Doug Martin was on the team . Photo by Football Schedule.

Once upon a time, D.J. Harper was the lead back in the Boise State offense over Doug Martin. Two ACL injuries later and now finishing his sixth year of eligibility, Harper is entering the NFL Draft. I remember seeing Harper before the injury and there was no doubt he could fly.

Most doubt Harper will ever be better than Martin in the NFL. However there is more to Harper’s game than speed, which is why the slower, post-injury version of Harper still has a chance to make an NFL roster and contribute to a starting lineup.

In fact, the post-injuries version of Harper still has more speed, burst, and change-of-direction quickness than many NFL starters. He also has an eye-popping skill that, after watching this particular running back class, I’m beginning to think is becoming more prevalent among running backs.

Patience

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ItPbhloob_A?start=74]

Backs with great speed often have an issue with patience – especially those with more straight-line skills. This 1st-and-10 run from a 11 personnel pistol with receivers 1×2 at the BSU 37 is a good example. Watch Harper press the run towards right guard, allowing his guard and tight end to pull across the formation to the left guard’s side, and then bend the run behind the them. All this is done close to the line of scrimmage and it opens a lane off left guard.

Harper makes a decisive cut downhill and up the left hash through this big hole for a quick six yards and runs through some of a wrap by the defensive back hitting his leg. Harper stumbles forward with a hop for another six yards, gaining 12 on the play. I like the second effort and balance as well as the ball security under his sideline arm.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ItPbhloob_A?start=112]

Here’s another display of patience on the same style play: a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel set on 1st and 10 with 4:38 in the half from the BSU 20. Once again Harper works behind his pulling guard and tight to the left end and he presses it before working to the edge. Harper demonstrates enough burst to work past the grasp of a backside defender and then turn his pads to back his way another few yards on a six-yard gain. Another nice display of ball security under his left arm.

Reading the Line of Scrimmage

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ItPbhloob_A?start=241]

This is a zone play on 1st and 10 with 8:07 in the third quarter from a 1×1 receiver, 21 personnel strong side I-formation set at the BSU 26. Harper has to deal with some penetration closing the middle creases as his fullback winds to the weak side of the formation.

Harper slows his steps and bounces to the strong side and away from the penetration. I though Harper made a quick decision and move to reach the line of scrimmage and veer away from the defender. He works outside his edge block that seals the inside and spins outside the defender at the flat. Nice job maintaining his balance to get another six yards for the first down on this play.

Balance and Speed

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ItPbhloob_A?start=169]

Harper doesn’t possess that cutback style of his old teammate Martin, whose ability to sink his hips and cut is akin to Ray Rice’s style of running. However, Harper has a quick feet and explosiveness in a gait that is similar to runners like Demarco Murray and Darren McFadden.

This 11 personnel 1×2 receiver set on 2nd and 10 at the Fresno State 38 with 2:20 in the half is a good example of Harper’s Murray-McFadden style on display. Harper makes an excellent cutback outside the left guard to reach the line of scrimmage, sprinting through a big gap where he is fast enough to bend the run a step outside the oncoming safety. Harper earns a quick four yards, runs through the wrap to his leg and spins free of the contact just in time to foil the angle of the cornerback working from the flat.

This is a nice illustration of balance and agility at a pace fast enough to get outside, earn the first down, and then reach the left flat for another 18 yards and the score. Harper finishes with a dive over the pylon and extends his left arm for good measure.

Receiving

What got my attention about Harper’s game is his work as a down-field receiver. Perhaps I haven’t watched enough Boise State games, but this surprised me. Watch Harper exit the backfield, work past the linebacker’s jam, and maintain his course up the seam. And of course, there’s the catch.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/w-Ut-ABx-d0?start=58]

Harper looks like a wide receiver on this play, dragging his feet inside the boundary while extending to the end line. It’s not the only catch of this kind I’ve seen from Harper. Although the video editing is a little too Pleasantville for my liking, it’s a terrific catch.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/gp0Wu7B99yM?start=68]

You’ll probably have to rewind and play a few times to see how Harper works open at the last moment and makes the play with a great adjustment in tight coverage. To catch the ball with this kind of speed and body control is a pro-caliber play. There was a third reception I saw against Georgia in the left flat where he had to make a catch after contact, but I couldn’t find a good replay to display.

If Harper can stay healthy and display this kind of speed, balance, patience, and body control as runner and receiver, Harper could be shaking hands with his former backfield mate after a hard-fought game where both runners got their uniforms dirty.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Mike Glennon + Blaine Gabbert + Aaron Schatz = A 2011-2013 RSP Mashup

March 21, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Quarterback

If you got the 2012 RSP and the 2012 RSP Post-Draft that comes with it, you knew Russell Wilson was one of the best values of the 2012 Draft class. Photo by Football Schedule. — If you got the 2012 RSP then you knew Russell Wilson was one of the best values of the 2012 Draft class -or so the guy on my left shoulder with the pitchfork likes to shout. Photo by Football Schedule.

Football Outsiders Chief Aaron Schatz asked me a great question yesterday. One that I imagine some people with my business interests in mind would tell me not to answer within the context of a book season where I’m trying to generate sales. They want me to say – and only say – I was the guy that said last March that Russell Wilson was indeed comparable to Drew Brees in style and had the potential skill to get there. Fortunately, my right shoulder tends to be hunched higher to my ear when I’m writing, so the voice in the white robe and halo is easier to hear.

But let’s be real: If you’re expecting me to be right all the time then you’re giving me and everyone else in this business way too much credit.

The one thing that draft analysts and scouts worth their salt know better than most readers is that they are often wrong. This is tenet No.10 from my first-ever RSP Blog post – Losing Your Football Innocence:

10. Have a slice of humble pie: It’s easy to tell the difference between the average football fan and the guy who grinds tape. The average fan behaves as if he’s a football genius. The average tape grinder knows he’s a football idiot. He also can explain why in great detail.

Part of adopting a student mindset is having the willingness to accept that you’ll be wrong a lot. Learning requires the ability to accept your errors.

I recently wrote an article about this topic. The subject was an accounting professor whose award-winning research was recently cited in Forbes. Her study dealt with the concept of cognitive dissonance in investing.

What she discovered is that people tend to make emotional choices once they commit to a decision. Moreover, it doesn’t matter if they are an expert in their field. If they’ve taken a stance, they defend that stance even if presented with evidence to the contrary.

In fact, they will seek analysis from sources that aren’t even as credible as the information presented to them in order to get validation that they made a good choice, even if the result eventually says otherwise.

In essence, we stand by our decisions to placate our egos because it’s often more important for us to be perceived as experts than behave like them. The sad, but comical thing about this is that we all do it if we make a decision before we fully weigh the evidence. I have no problem admitting I do it. The only real cure for this problem is having insight – and that’s a topic for another time…

Hopefully this will help you shed your football-genius innocence and become a student of the game.

I’m sharing this because I think what’s important for those of you considering the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio for the first time is that my background is in process improvement. I score players in the context of what they do well, where can they improve, and to the best of my knowledge, how they can improve. I also look at my process of evaluation and attempt to do the same thing every year.

I have gradually added a number of components to my evaluation process every year while making slight changes every couple of years to my scoring criteria so I can accomplish what I believe good prospect analysis does: Provide readers a comprehensive view of what a prospect is and could be and some context as to why I have that view so you can see my logic, even if it turns out to be flawed.

This leads me to Schatz’s question about Blaine Gabbert yesterday. I sniped quarterback Carson Palmer from him in the RSPWP2. Seeking alternatives, he looked through the 2011 Rookie Scouting Portfolio and read my analysis of Blaine Gabbert. It prompted this email:

Why do you think you were so wrong about Gabbert when you rated him the best prospect in 2011? Or, do you think maybe you weren’t entirely wrong and there’s still room for growth because he’s just 23?

Great question.

I was wrong about Gabbert for two major reasons:

I didn’t factor his pocket issues with enough weight because I saw examples contrary to the popular opinion about is jitters – especially as a sophomore.
I don’t get to interview coaches an teammates as non-media and I don’t have a private investigator on retainer.

The things I missed about Gabbert was one of the reasons I created additional steps within my evaluation process, which helps me frame and present a player’s potential with greater breadth.

Being wrong about Gabbert thus far hurts the ego, but helped my process. Photo by PDA.Photo.

In essence, I changed how I rank players. I now incorporate an analysis where I weigh the ease/difficulty of transition with certain skill sets at each position. I now use two scores – the player’s highest checklist score from games I studied and then a Ceiling Score, which is this player’s adjusted, highest possible score based on his flaws and the likelihood he can correct them.

As I rank players, I look at the spread between the scores (potential and reality) and then factor the ease of difficulty of transition with each of the player’s physical, technical, and conceptual flaws. For instance, I have Geno Smith rated lower than many folks but I think his faults have a good enough ease of transition to help him develop into a starting quarterback.

It has also helped me think about players in ways where I think I can better articulate why a player may have starter potential but the sum of his parts does not equal the final product. N.C. State’s Mike Glennon and what I just wrote about him in the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio as an Overrated Talent is a good example:

I’d be shocked if Glennon wasn’t picked within the first three rounds of the 2013 NFL Draft – pleasantly so. While a prospect with a first-round arm, first-round height, and a resume of experience in the ACC that merits early-round consideration, Glennon is not the sum of his parts.

The “glue” that holds a quarterback’s game together is his attention to detail, his ability to focus amid physical and mental distractions, and his capacity to learn from mistakes. Thus far, I don’t see enough progress from Glennon in any of these areas to trust him with a pick in the first half of the draft.

Glennon is one of the most inconsistent players I’ve watched this year. A good way to determine a quarterback’s attention to detail is to examine his short game. Glennons throws on plays like screens, roll outs, short play action passes, swing routes, and flat routes reveal a player whose footwork is executed with purpose and definition from one throw to the next, but without context of the defense is doing. He often rushes throws without looking at the situation developing ahead of him.

In a sense, he’s a task-oriented quarterback who knows he’s supposed to do certain things but doesn’t address the details enough to do them well. Moreover, Glennon appears to lose sight of the overall picture of a play and he’ll throw the ball blindly. Leadership is about balancing the ability to see in a broad scope (vision) and managing details to the letter (execution) while maintaining a consistent approach to dealing with situations.

All the negative traits in Glennon’s game – rushing throws, lazy play fakes, inconsistent footwork, reckless and blind decision-making, perceiving pressure, and rushing his release – are all on-field signs of behavior that isn’t ready to lead. The N.C. State quarterback has so many large and small details to address in his game and they don’t just reflect a lack of technique, but an indication based behavior that Glennon isn’t ready to lead a group and all of these things are a physical manifestation of an intangible that we often sum up as leadership.

Look at Robert Griffin and Russell Wilson and you’ll see the attention to detail each has. They make mistakes, but the footwork, play fakes, and mechanics of their game are honed. They are consistent and with that consistency comes poise. Teammates respond to this behavior to continue doing the little things well despite adversity dealing a series of blows big and small.

While I’m not completely writing off the possibility that Glennon will address these issues and develop into a quality leader-player, the chances are smaller than average based on what I see from college quarterbacks with good attention to detail who make a successful transition to the NFL.

I think it’s important to find links between on-field behavior and how they relate to “intangibles.” It may not be a statistically-based link, but my job is to try to project the future – not scientifically document the past. I try to use the past data – and stats where appropriate – when possible, but my job is primarily observational. I’m probably one of the more analytic-observational football writers around, if you get what I’m saying.

This leads me to back to Gabbert. Yes, I do think Gabbert can still get better, but this is where I think we get into the touchy-feely side of football. Part of this NFL transition is about crossing the divide from good college player to reliable professional in the locker room, practice field, meeting rooms, off the field, and then of course on Sundays.

These guys suddenly have tons of money, a lot more free time, and no one watching their backs each hour to make sure they lifted, studied, went to class, ate, etc. They also suddenly have grown men counting on them to produce and that pressure is way higher in the NFL than the college game.

Then compress the spread of good and bad skill in the NFL (all players being the top tenth of a percent of college players – probably not a correct number but you get my point) and a lack of maturity can be a bitch to handle. Vince Young should have been a better player. He wasn’t mature enough to work for it. Kurt Warner never gave up and he became a very good one.

Skill-wise, Gabbert has the arm and accuracy. The pocket presence has been an issue, but I will note that Matt Ryan still perceives pressure, drops his eyes from coverage, and makes some Gabbert-like plays to this day. The difference is that it happens with Ryan on a smaller frequency of plays, he wasn’t put on a really bad team, and he was given a stronger coaching staff.

Most important? Ryan handled his transition better. Remember, Ryan and his high interception count as a senior wasn’t considered a great prospect by many come draft time. I liked him – thought he could be a good version of Drew Bledsoe – very good, but never great.

I think it’s less than 50/50 that Gabbert ever becomes the player he could be if the rumors are true that he’s “Blame” Gabbert in meeting rooms and nothing is his fault. However when you look at his arm, base accuracy, mobility, mechanics, and flashes of good decision-making, the sum of his parts still give him promise

It’s why separating potential from reality in a systematic way can be so helpful. At least that is what I’m constantly learning.

And Aaron, I hope that helps.

Reads Listens Views 3/15/2013

March 14, 2013 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

There are a fair share of Jimmy Graham-sized targets in this draft, but as I finish up my rankings, only a few have a ceiling that is even in the neighborhood of the Saint. Photo by Football Schedule.

2013 RSP Update

I’m well into publication mode with April 1 approaching fast. Thanks to all of you who read the blog, follow me on Twitter, and purchase the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication. Available for download every April 1 (no joke) for going on eight years, the RSP is an online .PDF publication devoted to the play-by-play study of NFL prospects at the offensive skill positions. The publication has a menu that bookmarks the document so you have two types of analysis. The first portion is a magazine-style, pre-draft analysis of 120-150 pages that includes position rankings, player comparisons, skill set analysis of each position, and sleepers.

The second portion is where I show all my work: between 700-800 pages of grading reports, play-by-play analysis of every player and game I watched, and a glossary that defines every criteria in my grading reports. My readers who want the bottom line love the first half of the book and appreciate the transparency of this section. My hardcore readers love the fact that they can dive as deep as they want into these raw play-by-play notes.

Included with the RSP (since 2012) is a post-draft document between 50-70 pages that comes out a week after the NFL Draft with updated post-draft rankings, tiers, team fit analysis, and fantasy cheat sheet with value analysis (Russell Wilson was calculated as the best value last year). Fantasy owners can’t get enough of it.

The RSP is $19.95 and I donate 10 percent of each sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit dedicated to training individuals and communities on the prevention of sexual abuse. Past years of publications (2006-2012) are available for $9.95 and I also donate 10 percent of each sale to D2L. You can prepay for the 2013 RSP now.

Listens I

[youtube=http://youtu.be/_d_PApKfbA0]

RSPWP2 Update

We’re into the sixth round of the second Rookie Scouting Portfolio Writers Project. We have recruited a writer panel of judges to grade the teams once we’ve finished the draft.

To follow along you can access the draft room any time and choose a team to read commentary on their selections.

One of the biggest questions I see about this project is What is the purpose?

Build a winner this year?
Build a long-term winner?
Beat everyone else drafting?

The primary answer is we want discussion. Takes on players and how they fit into scheme. Interaction among some of the best people writing about football online in a variety of formats: news, strategy, advanced stats, and fantasy sports. Yes, fantasy sports writers have a rightful place at the table. I’ve had a lot of request for a grid format to view the draft picks. As we get into the middle rounds of the draft, we’ll make an Excel table available for download and update it periodically for your viewing pleasure.

Listens II

The Bridge Quartet – Exidence

Football Reads

Word of Muth: Free Agent Interior Linemen – His word on this subject is definitely the good word.
Futures: Sean Renfree – I think there’s a good argument for David Cutcliffe’s proclamation that the Duke quarterback is the steal of the draft.
A Look at The Best Receivers to Change Teams – A good look at the data behind it.

Non-Football Reads

A Mother’s Death Tested a Reporter’s Thinking About End of Life Care – With gay rights and marijuana legalization taking root, I think the right to die movement will be the next big discourse in the U.S.
Americans More Distracted Behind The Wheel Than Europeans – A recent study shows people think they are better at multitasking than they really are – and I know I suck at it.
How to Win Any Climate Change Argument – In case the fact that our Navy is moving forward despite the protests of some of our Congressmen doesn’t do the trick for you.

Views – South Carolina Tight End Justin Cunningham

[youtube=http://youtu.be/FDCV12XwmIU]

He’s not Jimmy Graham, but Heath Miller is a pretty good ceiling of comparison if you ask me.

Listens III

Trio Subtonic – There We Were

Player B

March 13, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Running Back

This time of year I’m marrying NFL Combine data with my tape analysis. I don’t take a close look until now. So today being one of the first days I’m examining the results, I came across something that – at least to the eyeball test – passed muster in a way that confirmed a conclusion I have formed while studying games. I don’t know if this conclusion fits the consensus or not, but I do have a feeling it goes against the grain.

To begin, here’s a question to answer: Based on these NFL Combine results, and nothing else, which running back is more appealing as an all-around player?

Player	Ht	Wt	Hands	40	10	Bench	Vert	Jump	20 S	60 S	3 Cone
A	5092	196	9 1/8	4.52	1.6	20	35.5	10’02”	4.2	11.33	6.87
B	5102	214	9 3/4	4.73	1.6	21	39	10’05”	4.09	11.51	6.85

Don’t get your slide rule bent out of shape. This is a flawed question. This is not how I rank players.

Yet, I think it’s an interesting jumping-off point for this post.

Player A is just an inch shorter, but 18 pounds lighter. He is also a solid step or two faster at longer distances. Despite the weight and long-speed differences, Player B has more short-area quickness and equal, if not more explosive, change of direction. If these two runners’ skills in athletic wear translated in a football game with pads, I’d say the taller, heavier, and quicker Player B would seem like the better bet.

Oregon running back Kenjon Barner has his fans here. Doug Farrar and Josh Norris believe he's a better prospect than LaMichael James. Photo by Wade Rackley. — Oregon running back Kenjon Barner has his fans here. Doug Farrar and Josh Norris believe he’s a better prospect than LaMichael James. Photo by Wade Rackley.

So you know, Player A is Oregon big-play artist Kenjon Barner. Barner’s combine results relative to this running back class are pretty good. However, Player B appears more appealing in similar ways to quicksters like Kerwynn Williams and Ray Graham and early-down bell cows like Michael Ford and Stepfan Taylor.

With the exception of 40-time and bench press, Player B is physically not too far away from workout darling Christine Michael – a prospect many consider one of the most physically talented runners in this class and a capable of top-prospect production if not for unwelcome bouts of immaturity that have held him back.

Player B might lack the breakaway capability, but if these workout results translate to the field of play I’d think that this mystery player has the size, quickness, and change of direction to produce between the tackles and in space.

In terms of what I see on the field, I think the NFL Combine results encapsulates a lot of the physical talents that I see Player B – Nebraska running back Rex Burkhead – display on the football field. His short-area quickness and agility is a notable positive of Burkhead’s game. If all you can see is the 4.73-40 time then you’re not seeing the running back position in a worthwhile context.

I believe there are plenty of highlights on YouTube to get a gist for Burkhead’s quickness and agility. The best example could be some of the plays I watched in this year’s Capital One Bowl against Georgia’s defense filled with NFL-caliber athletes. While Georgia has its breakdowns in the run game, the athlete-on-athlete match ups are worth a look when examining Burkhead’s physical skills.

Bigger Back, Little Back Moves

Burkhead is not Barry Sanders, but he does know how to layer moves that can freeze defenders while working down hill. Here is a 2nd-and-seven pass with 6:14 in the first quarter that illustrates what I’m talking about.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/NnlOx0njw7A?start=26]

Burkhead gains 16 yards from this 1×2 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun set on a screen pass from the UGA 37 where he releases from the quarterback’s left side, works to the left guard, and then turns back to the quarterback, catching the ball behind his linemen. After he works across the left guard to make the catch with his hands, he works behind the right tackle up the right hash. The is notable, but it’s the subtle head and shoulder fake combination on the defender back coming over the top from Burkhead’s outside shoulder that I value. This move fools the strong safety and forces another defender to chase the running back down.

Here’s a sharp, lateral cut on first-round athlete, Alec Ogletree at the edge on a 1st-and-10 run from the Nebraska 24 with 6:41 in the half.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/NnlOx0njw7A?start=161]

Nebraska runs power to right end with the pulling left guard working on outside linebacker Jarvis Jones, who crashes the line early with penetration. Burkhead dips outside the block, scraping close to Jones’ back so he can get down hill fast and maximize his gain. The inside linebacker Ogletree works free to the edge while shedding the tight end and has a down hill angle four yards from the Nebraska runner approaching the line of scrimmage.

Burkhead takes two small steps and cuts inside the the linebacker at the line of scrimmage and leaves the defender on his silver britches. It’s not a hard plant and cut, but I’m impressed with the quickness and precision of the footwork to change direction and it is similar to the footwork one would see from a shuttle run or cone drill.

Knowledge of Angles Equals Power

Brute force is what most people imagine when the word power is used in the context of a running back. The more important factor is a knowledge of angles. This is why a smaller back with average or even below average strength at the position can thrive when he manifests this knowledge of angles into good pad level, stiff arms, and transforming direct angles into indirect angles.

Burkhead demonstrates this ability to transform angles on the play after he jukes Olgetree to the ground. This is a six-yard gain on 2nd and five at the Nebraska 30 is a 21 personnel, strong side twin, I-formation set. Nebraska sets up a crease off left guard behind the lead fullback.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/NnlOx0njw7A?start=171]

Burkhead does a nice job of turning his shoulders away from Ogletree’s wrap and forcing the ILB to slide away from the runner. Burkhead keeps his legs moving and pulls free of the linebackers wrap and nearly another as he works to the first down marker. This slight turn of the pads is a demonstration why the Nebraska runner is more difficult for defenders to get a hat on than he seems.

Of course, Burkhead also displays the more tradition form of power on this 2nd-and-14 run at the Nebraska 26 for a 10-yard gain with 3:25 in the third quarter. This is a 1×2 receiver, 11 personnel pistol where he flanks the quarterback to the left (strong) side. They run delay with a guard pulling to the right.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/NnlOx0njw7A?start=286]

Burkhead finds a big hole inside the pulling guard and there is also a nice push from the double team of the center and right guard up the middle. The Cornhusker accelerates through that hole and then splits the double team for eight yards. He finishes the run by dragging the Georgia safety and inside linebacker a few more before lowering the pads and chopping his feet through head-on contact. When a back has the size to deliver the hammer, but the quickness to employ the change-up, he can be an effective interior runner at the NFL level.

Stylistically, Burkhead’s rushing and receiving skills remind me of Fred Jackson without the long speed.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/8FFNHZu7wyo]

Will Burkhead have Fred Jackson’s success? With today’s NFL experiencing a glut of talent at the running back position, I’m not confident in Burkhead landing in a situation where it happens. Just remember that Jackson was a Division III star who failed to stick with the Bears, Broncos, and Packers and had to play indoor football with the Sioux City Bandits for $200 a week for two years before he even earned a gig in NFL Europe. It took Jackson five years to earn an NFL start.

Burkhead at least hails from a big-time college program and already has the size that Jackson (195 pounds out of college) – now 216 pounds – lacked. Regardless of Burkhead’s outlook, his game tape reveals a lot of NFL-caliber skill.

Reads Listens Views 3/8/13

March 7, 2013 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

If you think of me when you see these three players – among others – you don’t need me to say any more. If you don’t, perhaps its time to starting downloading the RSP publication every April 1 Based on eight years of experience, you’ll thank me later. But first . . . What is Reads Listens Views? If you’re new to the blog, every Friday I supply links to things I thought were worth a read about football and the world beyond it. I also provide videos of music I enjoy, football players from the past, and a variety of other topics.

Most of all, I take this day to say thank you and yes, remind you to get the 2013 RSP.

Listens I

[youtube=http://youtu.be/7JFjYzuXesw]

Thank You

Thanks to all of you who read the blog, follow me on Twitter, and purchase the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication. Available for download every April 1 (no joke) for going on eight years, the RSP is an online .PDF publication devoted to the play-by-play study of NFL prospects at the offensive skill positions. The publication has a menu that bookmarks the document so you have two types of analysis. The first portion is a magazine-style, pre-draft analysis of 120-150 pages that includes position rankings, player comparisons, skill set analysis of each position, and sleepers.

RSPWP2 – What Is It?

We’re nearly four rounds into the Second Annual Rookie Scouting Portfolio Writers Project. To follow along you can access the draft room any time and choose a team to read commentary on their selections.

One of the biggest questions I see about this project is What is the purpose?

Build a winner this year?
Build a long-term winner?
Beat everyone else drafting?

Listens II

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Football Reads

Jimmy Smith is one of the best wide receivers in NFL history – Chase Stuart breaks down the numbers to show you why the Jaguars star deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.
Fujita Speaks Up on Openly Gay Players In NFL – Good series on the subject that includes a link profiling the diametrically opposed views between Matt Birk and Chris Kluwe.
Cosell’s First Take: The Chip Kelly Litmus Test – You’ve probably read it. Just doing a public service if you haven’t.

Non-Football Reads

This Awesome Urn Will Turn You Into a Tree After You Die – Like it.
Photo Essay: Photographer as Witness to Domestic Violence – If you’re a man read this so you can help others who think they are men learn to be men by not tolerating this junk.
Scientists Report First Cure of HIV in a Child – A case were drugs and kids may actually be a good thing.
The Holocaust Just Got More Shocking – Germany was one of the more civilized societies on the planet before it happened. Think about that.

Views

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M.A.V. – Micro Air Vehicles – As with all technology, the uses can be awe-inspiring and awful. The glass is half-empty for me on this one, folks.

Listens III

[youtube=http://youtu.be/WRbHXVZFe1w]

Futures: Arkansas RB Knile Davis

March 6, 2013 0 Comments read Players

Shonn Greene wouldn't be my player comp for Knile Davis, but I understand the reasoning. Photo by Matt Britt. — Shonn Greene wouldn’t be my player comp for Knile Davis, but I understand the reasoning. Photo by Matt Britt.

When I saw the 2012 Lewin Career Forecast, I had already studied Russell Wilson. In fact, I told a panel of draft analysts on a National Football Post podcast (beginning at the 17:42 mark) that included Josh Norris, Wes Bunting, and Josh Buchanan that Wilson was my sleeper quarterback in this draft. I was cynical that Wilson would be picked before the third round, but once Seattle opted for the N.C. State-Wisconsin quarterback, my immediate thought was that Wilson would be a pivotal test case against height bias in the NFL.

I think there’s another potential test case in the draft this year, but on the opposite end of the spectrum when it comes to the dilemma of prototypical skills vs. prototypical measurements. The lead actor in this draft-day drama could be Knile Davis. If an NFL team selects Davis in the first three rounds of this draft, it will be a telling indication that they relied more on Davis’ Combine performance –- and to some degree sabermetrics –- than the opinions of scouts and draft analysts who lean hard on the game tape.

Davis was an All-SEC selection in 2010, rushing for 1322 yards and scoring 13 touchdowns. In 2011, the Arkansas running back missed the season with a broken ankle. Davis underwhelmed in 2012, losing the starting job to reserve Dennis Johnson and only showing flashes of what he did in 2010.

Fast forward to the 2013 NFL Combine, and the 227-pound runner put on a show: a 4.37 40-yard dash and 31 reps on the bench press. It was an impressive performance that vaulted Davis atop Football Outsiders’ Speed Score metric for running backs. According to Danny Tuccitto, a Speed score below 80 is “a giant red flag,” a 100 Speed Score is “average,” and “anything above 120 serving as a giant neon sign.”

This makes Davis’ Speed Score, “off-the-charts good.” If you listen to Davis talk about NFL players of comparison, his self-perception is also top-notch. Andrew Gribble reports that Davis describes his style as on par with Arian Foster and Adrian Peterson.

If you ask me, Davis has some sort of dsymorphic disorder isolated to running backs and American Idol audition candidates. He has the idea that he performs differently than he does. Davis’ style is nowhere close to that of Foster or Peterson. When it comes to talent, if Davis is one of the top-ten runners in this class, then it’s a stretch to place him among the top seven in what is a deep class that lacks superstar talent at the top.

While I can’t be definitive about an exact ranking because I’m about two days away from the month-long task of compiling my 24 months of analysis into rankings this month, I can say that I have similar concerns as other writers (such as Rotoworld’s Evan Silva, NFL.com’s Josh Norris, and Bleacher Report’s Sigmund Bloom) who have studied Davis.

Foster and Peterson don’t come to mind when they watch Davis run. The running back mentioned most often among them was Shonn Greene.

Ouch.

Read the Rest Football Outsiders

The Kaepernick Project: FSU QB E.J. Manuel

February 27, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Quarterback

The attitude towards the term “project” is often a glass half-full/half-empty proposition. Colin Kaepernick was the glass half-full. Terrelle Pryor was the glass half-empty. Which one is Manuel? In light of the Alex Smith deal, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Kansas City Chiefs has an eye on Manuel as a project to develop behind Alex Smith ala Kaepernick.(Photo by D Wilkinson).

Read my pre-draft thoughts of Terrelle Pryor and the beer goggles effect and you know I’m not one who gets too enamored with athleticism. Some teams and fans see a big athlete with a strong arm and swift legs and they think they can mold him into a quarterback. Sometimes they are right.

Sometimes.

The term “project” is a glass half-full/half-empty term depending on the perspective of those who use it to describe a player. The reality is that glass is neither halfway full or halfway empty. It’s just a half a glass of whatever is in it until enough time passes for some action takes place with the glass to describe what its previous state was. Even that has a subjective imprint.

I think most of us thought of Colin Kaepernick as a project where his glass was half-full whereas many consider Pryor as half-empty – at least until he does something to prove otherwise and then there will be folks who claim they saw it all along that Pyror was a half-full guy. This is a blog, so I guess I could edit my original take and claim I was on the bandwagon.

But what would be the fun in that?

Manuel: A Half-Glass of Teachable Talent

I see Florida State quarterback E.J. Manuel as a half-glass of good talent. Where I think Manuel and Kapernick are similar when defining what a project is at quarterback is that like the 49ers quarterback, Manuel has lot of good quarterbacking fundamentals that don’t need to be broken down and built back up for him to eventually thrive in the NFL. The Florida State quarterback worked in an offense that used a lot of scheme variation that required sound fundamentals.

If you’ve watched the Seminoles the you know Manuel has worked under center, executed zone-read and spread concepts, ran the option, and worked from a true shotgun – often all in the same game. In comparison to Geno Smith and Mike Glennon, Manuel’s drops in all of these settings were better-defined and well timed: he gets good depth and has defined steps that help him set his feet at a width to throw the ball with accuracy and power.

Manuel’s drops aren’t perfect and his issues with deep accuracy is a testament to the fact that he’ll need to continue refining the techniques of the position. Drops are a part of the game that all quarterbacks continue to work on at every level. It’s like a musician always paying attention to his sound and how he can improve his overall tone. A good example of quarterback who improved once he made footwork development a ritual of his practice routine was Kerry Collins.

The Seminole’s quarterback’s release is another plus. He has a quick, over-the-top motion. The ball flies off his hand with a good snap and this complements Manuel’s quick decision-making. He reads defenses well enough to find the single coverage and make aggressive throws into tight windows in the short, intermediate, and deep zones of the field.

What I like most of all about Manuel is his pocket presence. His first instinct in the pocket isn’t to back away from pressure up the middle. He’ll climb the pocket and dip the shoulder, which is a big indication he’ll have the pocket presence you want from an NFL passer.

Pocket presence is a skill that I believe unlearning bad habits and learning new ones is almost too difficult to do. You need enough time under live fire to make that transition and young NFL quarterbacks don’t get that unless they are already deemed a first-year starter. Most first-year starters have this habit of climbing the pocket – or at least not backing away as the first reaction to pressure – ingrained.

There are other subtleties to his game that indicate a player who absorbs the intricacies of the game and has a good feel for integrating them into his overall game when the situation dictates. Manuel uses pump fakes to buy time or freeze a safety and he does a good job of looking off a defender on set plays before turning and throwing to the opposite side of the field.

Throw in the fact that he’s 6-5, 240, big, strong, and swift enough to either break tackles or get to the edge and there’s a lot to like. The light bulb came on for me at the Senior Bowl practices while having a conversation with Yahoo! Shutodown Corner blogger Doug Farrar, who made a simple, eloquent statement about Manuel being a clean slate much like Colin Kapernick.

Colin Kaepernick was good raw material for the 49ers. Photo by Daily Sports Herald

Farrar’s statement and comparison resonated and although the skill sets are different, I I looked back at my my pre-draft analysis of Kaepernick in 2011 (see below) and realized that the specifics of their games have differences, the overall tenor has a similar feel – two quarterbacks with clean slates that won’t have a lot of obstacles to tear down as they are building their skills to meet NFL expectations.

Kaepernick has good arm strength. Although not yet consistent enough, he flashes some nice touch and timing in traffic on intermediate routes on the perimeter. He demonstrates nice accuracy to his left, especially on the run. He can make the first defender miss in the pocket and he will use the occasional pump fake to create time as he scrambles. He wisely throws the ball away when no receiver is open and he flashes the ability to go through progressions or look off defenders before targeting his primary receiver.

His arm strength is good. The ball flies off his arm with a lot of velocity despite a release that he has improved from a side arm to a little higher than a 3/4 motion. He has good timing on deep passes and executes rollouts and passes on the run with consistent success. Although he demonstrates nice timing and accuracy on forward facing routes (hitches, comebacks, and curls) in the intermediate range of the field, his route selection is limited in this offensive game plan and he didn’t throw slants, dig routes, corner routes, deep crossers or much of anything in the middle of the field where he had to show great timing in tight coverage.

Kaepernick’s wind up is elongated and his release is far from compact. He frequently throws the ball with a three-quarter delivery, which invites more deflections than his 6-6 frame would suggest. He waits too long to check the ball down and he needs to learn how to climb the pocket and not just try to break free repeatedly. His footwork needs to improve. As it becomes more consistent, his accuracy should also get better. He tends to throw the ball high and away and his throws are frequently just a half-beat late. His anticipation should also improve with better footwork.I like that despite his speed and agility, he didn’t try to force the ball when under pressure and had the maturity to throw the ball away rather than rely too much on his athleticism. However, when he uses his athleticism it’s extremely productive. He has great acceleration to the outside and can make a big run from any play.

When moving around the pocket or breaking the pocket, he has a tendency to carry the ball loosely from his body and with his long limbs, it’s an inviting target for defenders to swipe the ball. He also needs to learn to carry the ball high and tight as a runner because of those long limbs. Even when he tucks the ball he tends to leave too much space for the ball to come loose when hit. As a runner he has some speed and change of direction, but he runs out of control, which will make him prone to big hits and turnovers.

As a runner he has some burst and change of direction to get nice gains or make defenders miss in the pocket. He’s a talented, but raw prospect that could develop into a solid starter if he demonstrates the work ethic and mental acumen to read defenses and execute.Kaepernick needs to constantly be more vigilant with how he carries the football in and out of traffic. He doesn’t have good recognition of blitzes prior to the snap. If Kaepernick stays his senior year and Vince Young continues to improve, he could see his stock rise.He’ll likely be a raw QB prospect in the way Vince Young was, but his style reminds me a lot of Young and Randall Cunningham.

E.J. Manuel is not the next Colin Kaepernick. He doesn’t run like a deer or have an ICBM missile for a throwing arm. But he and Kaepernick are “high-priority projects,” and I believe Manuel is a physically talented rookie prospect with the highest upside of any quarterback in the 2013 NFL Draft.

The Tale of The Tape

The game highlights I’m sharing today are from Manuel’s performance against Virginia Tech, a speedy and aggressive defense that threw a lot of varied looks at the FSU quarterback that tested his decision-making. Manuel saw a lot of blitzes, including unusual zone blitzes by major college standards. Zone pressure was an issue for Manuel in the 2010 ACC Title game and he had some difficulties versus N.C. State’s zone pressures in a one-point loss earlier in the year – FSU’s only defeat at this point of the 2012 season.

Let’s start with an interception in the red zone. Not a pretty beginning, but an instructive view of the type of error’s Manuel makes that are teachable. This is a 3rd and goal from the Virginia Tech 10 with 6:09 in the first quarter.FSU used a 1×2 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun against Tech’s zero deep coverage.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hC6E52F8rtA?start=65rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Manuel takes a three-step drop, feels pressure up the middle and flushes right while looking to the end zone. Nothing wrong with this at all. He throws a crossing route to his tight end at the six where there is tight trail coverage – doing this while on the move. The tight end gets his hands on the ball, but he was late getting his hands up to attack the pass, tipping the ball skyward and giving the underneath zone defender at the two any easy interception.

However, the onus of this turnover is not completely on the tight end. Manuel’s throw was a little high and hard for the situation. The placement should have been lower in this style of tight coverage. I don’t think this was an issue of technique and footwork as much as it was a fine point of emphasis with placement. I believe this is correctable.

As I mentioned earlier, pocket presence and maneuverability under pressure is more difficult to fix. Although I don’t have a video highlight of this play, this 1st-and-10 from the Virginia Tech 42 with 12:37 in the first quarter is a good one to mention. Florida State uses a 2×2 receiver, 10 personnel set versus a 4-3 with 1 deep.

The Seminoles execute a play-action pass and ask Manuel to execute a half-roll to the right. He does a good job executing the play fake with a full extension of the ball towards the runner and turns his back to the defense and looks to the RB through the exchange point.

Manuel finishes this five-step drop up the left hash while looking to his right. The safety blitzes off the right side on this play and as Manuel finishes his drop, he has to reduce the his right shoulder and climb the pocket through the safety’s wrap. This play below is from a different game, but the climbing of the pocket is similar here.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOzQy3ySFo8&start=273w=560&h=315]

If you want an even better idea of what Manuel does, see this Ryan Tannehill analysis from last year. Manuel climbs well and snaps into position to throw the ball deep with the defender loosely at his legs. He releases the ball at the 50 up the left flat to the Tech seven with a high-arcing pass to the inside of the receiver Rodney Smith, who works inside as the defensive back overruns the ball. Smith gets his hands on the ball and should have made the catch, but the defensive back is called for pass interference. The pass was under thrown and not great placement but to Manuel’s credit, not a bad chance to take, either. He knew where his receiver had single coverage and despite not setting his feet due to the pressure gets the ball in the area to generate a play.

I like Manuel’s quick decisions versus the blitz and there were several decisions on this night where his receivers failed him on throws just like this 1st-and-10 with 14:54 in the first quarter. In fact, there were four drops in the first half on slants or crosses with tight coverage but should have been caught. This play begins with a 2×2 receiver, 10 personnel shotgun set from their 18. They face a 4-3 with the Tech ends playing wide and one safety in the box just inside the left slot receiver.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hC6E52F8rtA?start=16rel=0&w=560&h=315]

The defensive back slot right blitzes the edge and Manuel hits the slot right receiver on a slant eight yards down field, leading the receiver to the middle and forcing his man to dive for the ball for a nine-yard gain. Manuel’s drop was a three-step with a scissors step included that finishes so the quarterback’s feet at shoulder width. He drives off his front foot during his release, which has an over the top delivery that is compact, and the ball snaps off his shoulder. I liked the location of the throw even if it was a little wide.

Manuel often stands tall or climbs the pocket. On a 3rd-and-19 at the FSU 9 with 7:50 in the half from a weak side trips, 11 personnel shotgun versus a safety deep with a linebacker coming unblocked outside right guard, Manuel drops five steps and as he reached that fourth step, he sees the linebacker flash in the pocket. He cuts short his drop, reduces the shoulder, and climbs the pocket from the pressure.

He dips inside a defensive tackle to squeeze through a small crease to the line of scrimmage and pump fakes down field to freeze the second level. This allows him to work to the right hash and outside the defensive back for nine yards until the defensive back drops him. Manuel could have easily backed away from the pressure or thrown the ball off his back foot. Hard to teach – see Tim Tebow.

One of my favorite scenarios to watch a quarterback operate is against double A-Gap pressure. Here is a 1st-and-10 at the Tech 47 with 1:14 in the half from a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun. Tech has one safety deep.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hC6E52F8rtA?start=139rel=0&w=560&h=315]

When the double A-Gap pressure comes during Manuel’s three-step drop, the quarterback looks over the middle and delivers the ball from the FSU 45 to his receiver on a streak up the numbers of the right flat. He hits the receiver over the back shoulder at the Tech 29.

Unlike other throws in this game where he has difficulty matching the arc and velocity into an accurate down field throw, Manuel mixes the combination well enough to get the ball behind the CB. To nitpick, Manuel still could have thrown the ball with less arc so the receiver doesn’t have to turn his shoulders back to the ball and then leap for it. Still, the receiver catches the ball ahead of the corner at the 29 and is dropped at the 25 for a 22-yard catch of a 26-yard throw. Overall, good velocity on this throw with lot of arc.

Manuel throws a touchdown on the next play, a 25-yarder to the same receiver with 0:58 in the half on 1st-and-10 from the Tech 25.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hC6E52F8rtA?start=149rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Manuel throws from a 2×1 receiver 11 personnel shotgun set versus a single safety deep off the left hash over the slot receiver on the twin side. Manuel drops three steps looking left, pump faks to the slot man to hold the safety and then turns right and delivers a perfect pass from the right hash of the TEch 33 to the receiver up the right sideline. Manuel’s pass reaches the receiver over his inside shoulder in stride and in tight coverage for the score. Make sure to check out the All-22 view on the replay.

Here’s a play against a seven-man rush on 3rd and 9 with 1:42 in the game from a 2×2 receiver, 10 personnel shotgun. Tech is only dropping four into coverage.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hC6E52F8rtA?start=279rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Manuel drops five steps from this seven-man blitz and delivers the ball off his back foot with a edge defender in his face. A nice high release point gets the ball to the left sideline and to the receiver working five yards down field. Good anticipation on an off-balanced throw. The receiver turns up field and is just shy of the first down marker. Good decision under pressure to find the single coverage.

The final play comes versus on the game-winning drive – a 2nd-and-10 at the FSU 48 with 1:13 left. FSU is in a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun versus eight defenders at the line.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hC6E52F8rtA?start=288rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Tech sends five as Manual drops three steps, climbs the pocket away from the pressure coming from his left. He’s quick with his decision and hits the receiver on the pivot route outside the left hash at the back shoulder. Very good, quick decision and move away from the Tech defensive end to get the ball to the open receiver five yards down field and giving his man room to run for another eight and a first down.

Overall, I thought Manuel had an impressive performance in this game. What these highlights didn’t show is that Manuel was down by two on the road with 2:19 left in a game where he faced a number of varied defensive looks that got the best of the offense. Manuel was sacked five times against schemes that would both most of the quarterbacks in this draft class. His teammates also dropped eight passes – all catchable by NFL standards and at least half of them easy receptions even by college standards.

I imagine Manuel will be considered as a player available somewhere in the late-second to fourth round. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Kansas City Chiefs have an eye on Manuel as a project to develop behind Alex Smith. The former 49ers starter is pro’s pro who has been to the circus and understands how to persist through ups and downs and eventually experience some success despite a ton of changes to coaches, scheme, and on-field personnel. That’s a good mentor for a locker room and a young quarterback.

Futures at Football Outsiders: UNC Guard, Jonathan Cooper

February 27, 2013 0 Comments read Players

[youtube=http://youtu.be/RxnFNnW0IoM]

Explosive, agile, and purposeful, Cooper has what it takes to play in the NFL for a decade if he can stay healthy.

There was an important decision to be made at the offices of Futures this afternoon: the boss or the wife? The work boss saw Knile Davis run a 4.30-forty at Indy; calculated the Razorback’s Speed Score; saw my tweet that I’d take Jonathan Franklin over Davis 10 times out of 10; and Monday afternoon asked me to write a Futures piece that addresses my take on the fastest big back at the Combine.

Truth be told, I have mixed thoughts about Knile Davis’ prospects. In some respects his style reminds me of DeMarco Murray. His style also reminds me of Keith Byars and late-career Herschel Walker. As much as I like these two players, this isn’t a complement to Davis. I’m going to study another game and review my notes of the others before I take a final stand on the Speed Score’s latest darling.

This brings me to the boss at home. My originally scheduled player this week was Jonathan Cooper. My wife is from North Carolina. A Tar Heel through and through, she turned down a track scholarship to Florida as well as a spot on Syracuse’s vaunted women’s team to attend Chapel Hill.

The fact that I still have an office to write from tells you that Carolina won out. Read the section “But My Wife Might Be Smarter,” for a greater understanding of her Tar Heel fanaticism and uncanny skill at guessing a prospect’s state of origin by his first name.

On to Cooper, who –- compared to the flashy picks that teams with the top picks in the draft –- is this year’s peanut butter and jelly sandwich; a good, safe choice that will get the job done. Despite the fact that he has been starting since his freshman year, the 6-foot-2, 311-pound left guard still has room to get stronger.

Cooper is the total package who has the potential to work at center and, in a draft where the top end of the player pool lacks the perceived flash of recent seasons, that helps explain the speculation that the left guard might go higher in the first round than guards usually do. Even if Cooper falls to the late first or early second round, he is the type of prospect that a team in need of interior linemen will take in a heartbeat. Read the rest at Football Outsiders

The Best On-Field RB Prospect No One is Talking About

February 24, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Running Back

Lots of noise as a freshman and sophomore, but a draft season afterthought. Find out why his on-field skill is as good as any in this draft class even if the perceived risk outstrips it. Photo by nanio.

It’s late and I have to write about this prospect because he’s one of the few that generated that “wow” factor for me. Understand, the “wow” factor for me has included players ranging from Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Russell Wilson, and Ahmad Bradshaw to Cedric Peerman, Nate Davis, Trent Edwards, and Bilal Powell. Even if I have defensible rationale for the last four, my inner compass may point true north but I don’t always find a way to navigate through the wilderness unscathed.

I just studied this running back for the second time in three months. He burst onto the college scene as a freshman. Then I saw highlights during his sophomore year and presumed that I would be studying a lot of him as a junior.

It never turned out that way.

He tore an ACL. Then he re-injured that knee the following year. Next thing I know he was dismissed from his team. He wound up at a different school and was granted a sixth-year of eligibility as a medical red-shirt for reasons unknown.

He’s not big. He’s not fast. Yet, he’s the most sophisticated runner between the tackles I have seen this year.

Patient, agile, and unfazed by penetration into the backfield, this running back demonstrates excellent anticipation on the type of runs that pro teams love: Power, traps, slice, wham, and zone. He catches the ball like a wide receiver. Most of all, he’s creative and is balance is fantastic.

It doesn’t hurt that this runner has 12 years of martial arts training and is a black belt in karate.

When I watch Temple running back Montel Harris, the former Boston College star reminds me stylistically of backs like Priest Holmes, Jerome Harrison, and Ahmad Bradshaw. I shared a game of his against Clemson with Draft Breakdown-Rotoworld-B/R analyst Eric Stoner and he was equally impressed. He commented on the strength and flexibility of his ankles, his creativity, and his versatility with scheme.

He conjured late-career Tiki Barber or a less explosive Reggie Bush.

I’m a fan of the Priest Holmes comparison – both on the basis of style and dare I say talent-potential. At a half-inch under 5’10” and 205 pounds, Harris matches the build of Holmes early in his career. I also compared Harrison stylistically to Holmes. I’d slot Harris between the two as an athlete.

I’m going to show you that if Harris is healthy and not a sinking ship character-wise, he’s the most mature, pro-ready runner in this draft. Note those two qualifiers – they are huge “ifs” and glaring reasons why he might be a UDFA by April 27.

This is a game from 2010 – pre-injury, Boston College days versus Clemson. I have seen Harris in 2012 in a game where he put 106 yards on Syracuse. He didn’t look much different from his sophomore year so I feel safe sharing his BC tape.

Footwork – Balance

This is a 1st-and-10 with 11:52 in the first quarter from 11 personnel with receivers, 2×1 at the BC 26 (high ends at 0:29 mark).

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZ9sVaHSE94?start=13rel=0]

Boston College runs a trap and Harris hesitates as he reads the penetration alters his footwork to set up the trap block and goes. This doesn’t seem like a big deal, but it’s because Harris is smooth with his execution.

Harris earns two yards untouched but has a linebacker over top and a defensive lineman converging on him in the hole. He lowers his pads, spins away from the hit and wrap to gain another three yards down field for a total of six on the play.

The replay from the end zone view illustrates his processing speed, his pad level, balance, and second effort. Look at the size differential between Harris the No.99 hitting him from the side. This is great balance. I also like the use of both hands around the ball. He routinely carries the ball under the sideline arm or protects it with both arms in traffic.

Here’s another example of footwork and balance on a similar play I showed last week with Silas Redd (finishes at 2:10 mark):

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZ9sVaHSE94?start=112rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Once again, not a huge gain, but a demonstration of awareness, balance, and effort that is a consistent refrain with Harris’ performances.

Another pervading theme of Harris’ game is the ability to layer moves and use them to minimize good defensive angles. Here is a 1st-and-10 run with 11:46 in the half where Harris makes two defenders miss direct angles for positive yards. This is a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel pistol at the Clemson 24 (ends at 3:43 mark).

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZ9sVaHSE94?start=205rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Boston College runs the draw play with an opening outside left guard. Harris takes this path until he has to bounce outside the middle linebacker two yards behind the line of scrimmage, break the tackle to his legs to reach the line, and then get downhill for two more before spinning inside the safety for another two after that. This easily could have been a loss of two yards, but Harris transforms the run into a gain of four.

Receiving Talent

There are two plays from this Clemson performance that demonstrates Harris has the hands and concentration to make difficult plays for the average running back. The first isn’t even counted as a pass. This is a 3rd-and-26 lateral on a broken play where the quarterback loses a high shotgun snap, scrambles to recover, and makes an ill-advised throw across the field (play ends at 3:22 mark).

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZ9sVaHSE94?start=194rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Harris was dropped for a loss, but he has to make this catch or else the throw will be ruled a fumbled lateral and the Clemson defense could win possession. Harris has to high-point the ball with his hands over his head, knowing he’s going to take a hit in the backfield from two defenders. Good job climbing the ladder, catching the ball like a wide receiver with his back to the throw and with his hands extended from his body. The fact Harris makes the play after contact is even better.

The next play is a wheel route resulting in a 36-yard touchdown (ends at 4:45 mark).

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZ9sVaHSE94?start=246rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Harris makes a superb catch in stride with his hands extended away from his body and above his head. Although lacks top-flight speed – possibly coveted speed among lead runners, which we’ll find out later today – Harris has enough quickness and second-level burst to make the end of this play a good race to the pylon. What the running back has already shown is great balance and awareness to stay in bounds in a tight spot and extend the ball to the end zone.

Making Something Out of Nothing

Harris has a knack for yardage in tight spots and is unfazed by penetration into the backfield. Backs like Holmes, Bradshaw, and Forte all had a skill for making something out of nothing. Harris shares this skill. Here’s a 1st-and-10 run with 11:46 left where he turns a no-gainer into a four-yard run.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZ9sVaHSE94?start=382rel=0&w=560&h=315]

This should have been a three-yard loss, but Harris makes it a four-yard gain by avoiding three defenders in succession just to cross the line of scrimmage. What’s deceptive about his skill on all of these plays is the economy of his style – there are no outlandish flights to the outside or lateral cuts here.

Even this minimal gain below is a good demonstration of a player with a really good inner compass to change direction multiple times and still possess the awareness of the defenders around him and the line of scrimmage.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZ9sVaHSE94?start=369rel=0&w=560&h=315]

This is a three-yard loss turned into a two-yard gain against a defensive line that included Da’Quan Bowers, Andre Branch, Jarvis Jenkins, and Brandon Thompson.

Why There’s No Buzz

The rumors surrounding Harris’ dismissal is multiple failed drug tests. Boston College has been mum on the matter and until there is definitive evidence about Harris that explains why he’s an enormous red flag for the NFL off the field, then I’m skeptical about writing off his future in the NFL before he even gets a shot.

If you ask me, there’s a lot to like about Harris. I like the fact that he graduated from Boston College and is pursuing a graduate degree at Temple. I’m a fan of the discipline it takes to earn a black belt. I’m also bullish on the fact that Harris has dedicated almost half his life to studying karate. It doesn’t hurt that Carolina Panther linebacker Luke Kuechly has praise for Harris’ game – especially his balance.

[youtube=https://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=9FrohIbAluA&feature=endscreen]

While martial artists are also susceptible to temptations and errors of judgment just like the rest of the human race, I’m also more likely to believe that a prospect with as much training as Harris has resources to draw upon to move beyond what happened in his life at Boston College. If you recall, Vontaze Burfict was a sinking ship last year in Indianapolis – and that town is landlocked.

Keep an open mind. Talent like Harris’ compels me to do so.

Post Script: I have put out feelers about Harris and one source at the Combine told me that the conversations he had with scouts was that Harris wasn’t popular with his teammates or staff and made repeated mistakes off the field that earned him a ticket out of town. Again, take this information with some caution. Players mature and characterizations from coaches and scouts in these environs have proven inaccurate – see Terrell Davis and Arian Foster as examples. Current accounts at Temple indicate that Harris was a good teammate and citizen.