Posts tagged 2013 NFL Draft

Reads Listens Views 2/22/2013

February 21, 2013 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

Friday Sleeper Tip: Cincinnati WR Kenbrell Thompkins

I’m wrapping up my film study for the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio this month. I watch multiple games of almost every player I study and I try to document at least 2-3 of those views for the publication so my readers can have play-by-play notes that shows the work behind the analysis. Yesterday morning, I watched another game of University of Cincinnati runner George Winn and tight end Travis Kelce. It was Thompkins who caught my eye the most – as did his story.

Brown was a sleeper two years ago. His cousin Kenbrell Thompkins is one now. Photo by bmward_2000. — Brown was a sleeper two years ago. Kenbrell Thompkins is one now. How are they related? See below. Photo by bmward_2000.

Thompkins is the cousin of Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown and the brother Kendall, a University of Miami wideout. When Kenbrell saw Kendall earning opportunities to go to college, he decided to ditch his life headed down a path of crime for football. Sports Illustrated’s Michael McKnight does a fine job of reporting Thompkins’ transition from drug dealer to JUCO star, leader, and in my opinion, late-round or UDFA sleeper.

I’m a fan of Thompkins because he’s not just a fine athlete with quickness, leaping ability, and fluid skill around the ball. The Bearcats receiver clearly works at his craft. I can see it with the way he runs routes. Just like Marvin Jones, he can hold a defender in suspense with his route running and plays bigger than his 190-pound frame indicates.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/fUUzOJBqITc]

The practice tape has a pre-Goodell-smackdown quality to it, but it demonstrates a lot of refinement with routes:

Sinking hips to generate hard, sudden breaks.
Setting up breaks and releases with the chattering of feet and drumming of arms.
The ability to dip the shoulder under contact at the line of scrimmage.
Integration of feet and hands to gain a release.
Suddenness to double moves.
Flat breaks to prevent trailing coverage from undercutting the target.

When the ball arrives, Thompkins is fluid at turning to the ball in tight spaces between a defender and the boundary and extending his arms to catch the ball. This practice compilation shows a lot of what I’ve seen in games – and a little more, because the quarterback play hasn’t been stellar in Cincinnati this year.

Plus, whenever I watch a wide receiver focus on details most prospects don’t address – such as engaging defenders 10-15 yards away from the ball as a blocker with good technique until the whistle blows – it’s a good indication the prospect is serious about getting better and not just leaning on his athleticism. The 2013 class is a deep one, but talent-wise Thompkins is a guy I’d remember if you’re a fantasy owner in a deep league monitoring the summer waiver wire for buzz-worthy candidates. Opportunity is a different story.

RSP Contest Update

If you think of me when you see these three players - among others - you don't need me to say any more. If you don't, perhaps its time to starting downloading the RSP publication every April 1. — If you think of me when you see these three players – among others – you don’t need me to say any more. If you don’t, perhaps its time to starting downloading the RSP publication every April 1.

The Guess the Prospect Contest I announced this week is over. All five of the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio and 2012 Post-Draft Analysis for correct answers were given away as of this morning. The correct answers were:

Prospect No.1 – Ron Dayne
Prospect No.2 – Vincent Jackson
Prospect No.3 – Arian Foster
Prospect No.4 – Mark Sanchez
Prospect No.5 – Peter Warrick

Congratulations to Frank, Michael, “labradane,” Shanker, and Steve.

To many of you who bought the 2012 RSP, thank you for making it possible to give some of these past issues away to newcomers to the blog. Available for download every April 1 (no joke) for going on eight years, the RSP is an online .PDF publication devoted to the play-by-play study of NFL prospects at the offensive skill positions. The publication has a menu that bookmarks the document so you have two types of analysis. The first portion is a magazine-style, pre-draft analysis of 120-150 pages that includes position rankings, player comparisons, skill set analysis of each position, and sleepers.

The second portion is where I show all my work: between 700-800 pages of grading reports, play-by-play analysis of every player and game I watched, and a glossary that defines every criteria in my grading reports. My readers who want the bottom line love the first half of the book and appreciate the transparency of this section. My hardcore readers love the fact that they can dive as deep as they want into these raw play-by-play notes.

Included with the RSP (since 2012) is a post-draft document between 50-70 pages that comes out a week after the NFL Draft with updated post-draft rankings, tiers, team fit analysis, and fantasy cheat sheet with value analysis (Russell Wilson was calculated as the best value last year). Fantasy owners can’t get enough of it.

The RSP is $19.95 and I donate 10 percent of each sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit dedicated to training individuals and communities on the prevention of sexual abuse. Past years of publications (2006-2012) are available for $9.95 and I also donate 10 percent of each sale to D2L. You can prepay for the 2013 RSP now.

This Weekend

You can catch me talking NFL Combine and its fantasy football implications on Saturday night from 8:30 pm to 9:00 pm on Bob Harris and Mike Dempsey’s Football Diehards Show (7:00 pm to 10:00 pm). Always a good time with these two. Bob Harris (@footballdiehard) is a must-follow for fantasy football owners. He’s the first winner of the FSWA’s Fantasy Football Writer of the Year in 2005. Harris was “the talent” in the game before fantasy football emerged from the underground.

Football Reads

Comparing Rookie Quarterbacks to Their Team’s Prior Year’s Stats – Nice presentation from Chase Stuart.
Football Outsiders Four Downs Series – Check out the NFC West, AFC South, and AFC East features this week. Good stuff.
An Insider’s Guide to the NFL Scouting Combine – A Ryan Riddle joint.
NFL Arrests Database – These are arrests and citations involving NFL players since 2000 that were more serious than speeding tickets. The San Diego Union-Tribune reviewed hundreds of news reports and public records in compiling it. The list cannot be considered comprehensive in part because some incidents may not have been reported and some public records proved to be elusive. Increased media coverage of incidents also probably accounts for more incidents listed in recent years. Personally, I think you should think of this in the scope of how many non-football people are arrested annually in far more important jobs in our society.
Recent Events Expose Sexism in Sports Culture – This piece by Kate Fagan made the rounds on Twitter. Well worth a read.

Views – Part I

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ade1LyPS1so]

Views – Part II

[youtube=http://youtu.be/O_FAt3a7EM0]

Non-Football Reads, Listens, and Views – Part III

I don’t get much commentary about these links, but those who read them seem to look forward to this stuff – even when I post events from the real world that are all too real. These links below qualify. Stretching physically, mentally, and emotionally is not a comfortable process. These links will stretch you.

[vimeo http://www.vimeo.com/25563376 w=500&h=281]

MIDWAY : trailer : a film by Chris Jordan from Midway on Vimeo.

Exclusive First Read: ‘Wave’ By Sonali Deraniyagala – Economist Sonali Deraniyagala lost her husband, parents and two young sons in the terrifying Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004. Wave is her brutal but lyrically written account of the awful moment and the grief-crazed months after, as she learned to live with her almost unbearable losses — and allow herself to remember details of her previous life.
The Strong Silent Type: The Contradictions of Being an Introverted Man – I get it. Do you?
Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence In The House of God – At the heart of the film is a small group of heroes – Terry Kohut, Gary Smith, Arthur Budzinksi and Bob Bolger. These courageous Deaf men set out to expose the priest who had abused them and sought to protect other children, making their voices heard. Gibney uses the voices of actors Chris Cooper, Ethan Hawke, Jamey Sheridan and John Slattery to tell the stories of men abused by Murphy. However, it is the faces and expressions of the courageous Deaf men that illustrate the indelible effect Murphy continues to have on their lives.

Views – Part IV

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ryCwQYlQhco]

Contest: Win the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio (New Hints)

February 20, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman, RSP Publication

Could this be Giovanni Carmazzi's playing field? Sounds funny now, but in 20 years he probably has a way better quality of life than most NFL players. Photo by Alex E. Proimos. — Could this be Giovanni Carmazzi’s playing field? Sounds funny now, but in 20 years he probably has a way better quality of life than most NFL players. Win an 2012 RSP below by guessing, who these “G.O.A.T.S” are. Photo by Alex E. Proimos.

Update – Contest is Over. You can find the answers here.

New to the blog? Haven’t bought the Rookie Scouting Portfolio before? Want to see why so many of my readers can’t wait until April 1? Wondering why I have a photo that could be Giovanni Carmazzi’s farm? See below.

Here are five scouting summaries from current and/or former NFL prospects from the past 13 years. These are not my summaries but from various analyst sources. Be among the first five* to guess all five players correctly, you win the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – including the post-draft update.

To Qualify

Click “Follow” on the home page to follow the RSP blog.
Submit the form with all the information filled out.
Guess the correct players.
Don’t Tweet or email guesses.

*I reserve the right to issue a tiebreaker contest if we have multiple, correct entries. If you already have the 2012 RSP and deemed a winner, you can select your choice of any RSP from 2006-2011. Sorry, but not giving away 2013’s publication in this contest.

Good luck!

Scouting Summary No.1 – Running Back

NFL Comparison: Jerome Bettis
Running Skill: Punshing, with outstanding leg drive and leverage. Runs low to the ground and delivers blow every time he carries ball. Doesn’t have great quickness but shows good feel between tackles and always runs hard. Solid feet; can pick and slide. Shows good vision and patience, then a special burst when he finds seam…[outside running] may be his weakest area at next level. Has solid speed and quickness but will have hard time getting around corner. Not a home run threat but does a good job of finding hole and attacking it. Will not break many long runs at next level because he simply doesn’t have speed or extra gear to create separation.
Blocking: Has little experience but shows natural instincts picking up blitz. Has perfect frame to anchor. Possesses great base as blocker but will need to work on technique and use of hands. Biggest challenge will be adjusting on move when asked to make downfield block.
Receiving: Mostly a dump-off type receiver. Has been reliable when asked to participate in passing game but a bit stiff as a route runner and hands undersized. Not a downfield threat but causes matchup problems when he gets ball in open field.
Overall: Most naturally powerful back in draft and has type of size/speed combo to wear down defenses. Premier-type back, but question remains whether he’s an every-down back. Has limited experience as blocker and receiver and has taken lots of hits, which worries scouts when analyzing potential durability.
Hint No.1: There was a 2000-yard runner in this draft class and this prospect is not that runner.
Hint No.2: That 2000-yard runner in this draft class was Jamal Lewis.

Scouting Summary No.2 – Wide Receiver

NFL Comparison: None listed but, described by this group as “Good size; five inches taller and 30 pounds heavier than average. Long arms and legs. Large hands . . . Long strider with outstanding speed for a player of his size.
Position Skills: Able to get smooth release from the line. Uses his hands and body well against defenders. Physical; a tough matchup for smaller corners. Smooth route-runner. Loses speed in and out of breaks. Lacks quickness. Able to create separation using his body to shield defenders from the ball. Will make the tough catch in traffic. Shows good body control in working the sidelines. Will fight for the ball. Comes back to the quarterback when the play breaks down. Soft, reliable hands. Will extend his hands and catch the ball out away from his body. Shows good concentration and seldom drops a catchable ball. Adjusts well to the ball in the air. has enough speed to stretch the defense and take a catch the distance, but lacks a burst. Impressive yards-per-catch average. Will need to improve his blocking skills.
Hint: Has been arguably one of the two most successful receivers of his draft class despite not earning a consensus top-15 rank at his position at the time.
Hint No.2: One of the consensus top-three prospects from this class I’m referring to sat out of football for a year before entering NFL Draft because NCAA ruled him ineligible after initially winning a court ruling vs. NFL for early entry.

Scouting Summary No. 3 – Running Back

Comparison: None provided, but he’s a bigger back.
Running Skill: Shows good instincts and vision to find holes. Makes quick cuts to get around blockers and into open space. Is a strong, competitive runner who maintains balance amid high hits to gain yards after contact . . .Runs upright; must learn to lower his shoulder and make himself a smaller garget. Is a one-speed runner. Gets tripped up by low grab tackles. Lacks elusiveness to make tacklers miss.
Overall: For a big rusher, lacks the explosiveness and elusiveness good NFL backs have. Teams should wait until at least the fifth round to grab [this back] because he isn’t likely to harness his potential and become a solid starter.
Hint: His 40-time was nearly 4.7 at the Combine.
Hint No.2: I compared him to Eddie George .

Scouting Summary No. 4 – Quarterback

Comparison: Ben Roethlisberger
Skills: Has a big-time arm. Can make every NFL throw with zip and accuracy. Is able to throw across his body with accuracy when flushed out of pocket. is able to put the ball right on target. Has a quick and compact delivery. Does an excellent job throwing the ball where only his man can make a play. Sees the entire defense well, goes through his progressions and is consistently able to find the open receiver. Does not force balls into bad spots. Identifies defense at the snap well. Is able to make plays with his feet. Can pull free from a potential sack, reset his feet and still get the throw off. Can pull the ball down and scramble for the first down….Has questions about whether he’s ready to handle the NFL. Is regarded as an excellent leader who takes command of a team and leaves no doubt that he’s in charge.
Overall: [Player] is only going to get better and should eventually become a top-line NFL quarterback who surpasses the achievements of position mates at [his college].
Hint: Easy once you get past the less-than-obvious comparison that might cloud things for you.
Hint No.2: His cohort at the top of this positional class went to high school near Dallas, Texas.

Scouting Summary No.5 – Wide Receiver

NFL Comparison: Jerry Rice
Skills: Exceptional hand-eye coordination and concentration. Rarely drops a pass. Can elevate and snatch in a crowd. Does an excellent job catching the ball at highest point. Has bigger hands than body would indicate. Catches away from body and pulls it in with one quick motion. Underrated route runner. Exceptional quicks and body control. Elite burst in and out of cuts. Understands passing game and knows where to be. Has good speed and separation of top vertical receiver and sharp movement, vision, quick hips and excellent feet of celebrated possession receiver. Will become the best in the league after the catch. All the tools and tremendous body control. Undersized, but runs hard enough and plays low enough to ground to pick up extra yardage. Rarely gets jammed because of exceptional feet. Shows outstanding double moves off line and uses hands well to create separation. May have trouble versus bigger, physical corners but is too quick to get jammed. Graduated with a degree in political science in December before draft.
Overall: Unquestionably top athlete in draft with chance to become all-time great.
Hint: If the draft was Wall Street and this player a bank, he’d be “too big to fail.”
Hint No.2: His WR teammate in college had a much more productive career.

[contact-form][contact-field label=’Name’ type=’name’ required=’1’/][contact-field label=’Email’ type=’email’ required=’1’/][contact-field label=’Prospect No.1′ type=’text’ required=’1’/][contact-field label=’Prospect No.2′ type=’text’/][contact-field label=’Prospect No.3′ type=’text’/][contact-field label=’Prospect No.4′ type=’text’/][contact-field label=’Prospect No.5′ type=’text’/][/contact-form]

Futures: DE’s Bjoern Werner and Damontre Moore

February 20, 2013 0 Comments read Players

As a football fan, odds are high that you at least had a brief love affair with professional wrestling. Mine lingered a while. It was an obsession lasting long enough that when I think of defensive ends, they remind me of the ultimate “heels” from professional wrestling promotions: big, bad, freakish athletes capable of putting an end to their opponents with one swift and powerful move.

It’s no coincidence that Bruiser Brody and Superstar Billy Graham, who starred as collegiate defensive ends — and had brief NFL careers — fit the mold perfectly. This is because defensive ends embody the essence of what it means to be the “heel.” They’re the opponents you love to hate and secretly want to cheer. It’s the feeling that you’re doing something wrong, which is what also makes it so right.

Florida State’s Bjoern Werner and Texas A&M’s Damontre Moore are two collegiate defensive ends in this draft with the potential to join the ranks of NFL heels. Both juniors are in the range of 6-foot-4 and 260 pounds, both are early-round prospects noted for their athleticism, and both possess the upside to develop into technically capable 4-3 pass rushers and run defenders.

Although regarded among many as one-two in this class of defensive ends, the difference in potential is starker than their standing in most pre-draft positional rankings. The similarities these players share with physical dimensions, roles in scheme, and pre-draft grades also make it worthwhile to profile these two ends side-by-side.

Moore has all the physical traits to develop into an NFL starter, but I prefer both Werner’s current skill and his future upside. Werner can become a special player, and I think it becomes more apparent when using Moore as a foil for comparison.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Instinct or Practice: Demystifying the Nature of Running Back

February 19, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Running Back

Is it instinct or practice? Nothing is as simple as it looks. Here’s a 2nd-and-five run by USC running back Silas Redd in the middle of the second quarter against Utah this year that begs the question.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-iYJd50rIps&start=3749&w=420&h=315]

Nice run. Some might say Redd demonstrated excellent balance. Others might go further and say it was nice balance but a fluke play because how often does a running back get tackled, land on the chest of the defender, and not hit the ground only to realize he is not down?

Perhaps a few times a season in the NFL.

Most people will say this run was a display of good instincts. In some respects, it’s similar to the way some listeners of popular American music in the early 20th century said that black jazz musicians just did what came naturally. Entertainers at the time went along with these notions because it was a matter of keeping business.

Eubie Blake once gave an interview in which he said that when a hit song made the rounds, he would write an intricate arrangement of it, pretend that he he and his musicians did not know it, and ask a listener to hum a few bars before breaking into a complex version of the song; this convinced the assembled audience that all the talent they were hearing was proof that these people were simply natural musicians. If that story of Blake’s is true, we know what happened next, and how a party joke and clever ploy to get jobs helped deepen a stereotype.

– Stanley Crouch, Oxford American, Issue No.79, Dec. 2012

Running back may be one of the more “instinctive positions” in football, but the idea that you either have “it” or your don’t is also a simplistic way to look at the world. I believe there is special talent in the world. I believe that an individual can have a natural feel for something. While it may be a small ingredient that makes a big difference when comparing players side-by-side at the highest level, it takes a lot more than instincts to sustain that top level of play.

A drummer may have naturally good rhythm. It’s not what makes him a good drummer. The work the drummer puts into his technique, his ability to play with other musicians, and his understanding of music beyond his drum kit goes a lot farther towards making him a good drummer than a natural feel for keeping time.

The same goes for running backs. Coach Hoover’s site is probably the best online resource I have seen – hat tip to Smart Football’s Chris Brown – on football fundamentals. One of his posts is about the Balance and Touch Drill.

[vimeo http://www.vimeo.com/28995095 w=400&h=300]

Watch these drills and you will see that Silas Redd demonstrates this same technique.

Perhaps USC or Penn State doesn’t do these drills. Maybe Redd didn’t even see these drills in high school. This can be the case with running backs. Yet more often than we think, the skill fundamentals are often hidden within what appears to be natural athleticism.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Forget Leon Sandcastle

February 17, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Running Back, Walk on the Wild Side

Forget Leon Sandcastle. He’s a joke – albeit a hilarious one. I’ve dug deep into my contacts to unearth a gem. A prospect so good that he will make you wonder if his career will be on par with the all-time greats. In fact, I guarantee it.

To give you some context, Bo Jackson was the greatest runner I ever saw play in my football lifetime. Gale Sayers, Walter Payton, Earl Campbell, Eric Dickerson, Barry Sanders, and Emmitt Smith have supplied the most consistent number of oohs and aahs I’ve witnessed at the running back position. They are the pantheon of great running backs.

I believe Adrian Peterson has a strong shot to be mentioned above them all. But this month I believe I have found the next Adrian Peterson. I know this is bold, but perhaps it’s better stated that I found a player who is the next step on the evolutionary scale of running back – ahead of Peterson.

He’s that great.

Thanks to my resources, I have analysis to back it up. My video man had to use antiquated means to provide these highlights so the footage is grainy. It’s still worth your while to learn about this 6-2, 232-pound running back prospect.

This is a draw play where the left defensive end, defensive tackle, and outside linebacker all meet this runner in the backfield.

The runner manages to elude them despite taking just a step past the quarterback exchange point. Look at the pad level this runner has even as he begins this run. I love that he also has his head up and eyes down field. But what’s amazing is what you’re about to see next. In this sequence.

The quickness this prospect has to stiff-arm the defensive end, accurately hit the defender in face, and still have the power to knock the opponent’s helmet off while the prospect turns his body away from the defender to the outside is an athletic feat on par with Bruce Lee’s one-inch punch.

This runner’s quickness, accuracy, power, and agility is rare even at the NFL level. The rest of the run is speed for a big man that rivals Peterson.

This lineman as a decent angle on the runner and my prospect goes by him like it’s not even a threat, turns the corner at the 35, picks up a block by his wide receiver at the 40, and he’s gone for the touchdown. The speed is fantastic for a 230-pound man, but it’s the short-area quickness and power that blows me away.

Pad Level

I’m a huge proponent of great pad level with runners. This 23 personnel short-yardage run makes Spencer Ware look like a good Pop Warner back by comparison. No.32 takes this run off left tackle with penetration from the end that nearly derails the play in the backfield.

No.32 demonstrates good ball security to avoid the strip and manage good strength early in the run to tear through the grasp of this lineman. But it’s the pad level on this play that is extraordinary. The only backs I have ever seen with pad level as good on a consistent basis were Walter Payton and Edgerrin James. And if you’ve been reading my blog since the beginning, then you know how much I revere James’ game. It was James’ pad level and vision that helped him be a very good back despite losing his greatness when he tore his ACL early in his career.

No.32 consistently runs between the tackles with his pads forward, his head up, and with a forward lean that earns him yards after contact as well as any back I have ever seen. As he helps his teammate knock down defender No.55, he’s already looking ahead to the defender coming over top from the inside.

As the blockers and defenders converge on No.32, his flexibility to get his back flat and drive through the wrap of the defender he knocked down the frame before also helps him push the pile while running through the tackle attempt. At this point, most runners are on their way to the ground, especially with a defensive back (No.42) on his way to deliver the kill shot.

The defensive back gets great pad level, but the running back’s pad level is so extraordinary that the defender’s hit lands squarely at the front of the runner’s shoulder. Because the runner has the leverage advantage with his legs driving through the contact – as well as the trailing defender losing his grip on the ground – No.32 is able to bulldoze through the contact and lift the defensive back upward while driving his legs. It’s no different than a lineman with leverage in the trenches, but with far more obstacles happening before the execution.

What’s even crazier about this sequence is that the runner switches the ball to his outside (left) arm as he emerges from the defensive back’s wrap. I’m not confident that he’ll be able to execute this kind of transition at the NFL level, but it’s a good display of awareness.

I would caution against it. I know that Peterson had his issues with ball security early in his career and I think great runners tend to have the confidence to perform feats most prospects wouldn’t get away with. Still a minor point. No.32 does a good job with ball security considering the amount of contact I’ve seen him encounter.

After this amount of contact, he still has the stamina and acceleration to work around his receiver’s block and beat the secondary to the end zone with a 65-yard sprint. It’s a lot like this Bilal Powell run at Louisville for an 85-yard touchdown.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/O0mR2u_EAiM]

The difference is that I think this prospect demonstrates even more balance and power against better tackle angles from these defenders than Powell, who’s determination combined with defender’s losing him in the pile are bigger factors in his jaunt.

Balance-Vision-Agility

Here’s a toss sweep from a 12 personnel set at the runner’s 35 that would make Peterson envious.

The runner does a great job of working behind the outside shoulder of his pulling tackle to the left hash, giving him position for a two-way go as the play develops ahead. Note once again, the use of the outside arm to secure the ball. He will protect the ball with either arm and there are so many runners these days who just keep it on one side.

As our prospect gets the edge, beating the backside pursuit to the corner, he demonstrates that consistent skill to run with his eyes and set up defenders at least a step ahead of his current situation.

You’ll see in the next frame that what No.32 is seeing is what’s behind the next defender because as he beats this defender up the flat, he’s setting up his attack of the defensive back 10 yards behind the linebacker he just outran.

What you’re about to see below is a defensive back hit No.32 in the hip, the runner spin outside the blow, maintain his footing inside the boundary and then cut the run across the middle of the field. If he didn’t see this open area in the middle well before this sequence then I’d call it fortuitous. However, I’ve seen enough of this guy’s tape to know that it’s conceptually something he’s made a career of doing. It’s one of the better runs I’ve seen in terms of setting up his actions steps ahead of his current situation.

Hell, watch the highlights of Jim Brown, who celebrates his 77th birthday today and you should have little doubt that he is the greatest running back of all time.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/b6cCXNBeVfc]

Detractors say the 230-pound Brown was as big as many linemen and the athleticism of the game had not caught up with him. Consider the angles these defenders have on Brown; where they make contact with him; and how much or little momentum the defender or Brown has at the point of contact; and you should see that the Cleveland Brown has physical and conceptual skills as a runner that even a modern runner like Alfred Morris says he studied during his college career.

Any back who at age 49 calls out a Steeler and challenges him to a race gets bonus points in my book. It’s arrogance bordering on insanity that you perversely can’t help but admire. Leon Sandcastle…that’s rich.

For real analysis of skill players, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

“If You’re Looking For The Next Russell Wilson…”

February 15, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

It's okay to look for the "next Russell Wilson," you might not find him - but I bet you'll eventually find a prospect worth the search if you keep an open mind. tPhoto by Neal D. — It’s okay to look for the “next Russell Wilson,” you might not find him – but I bet you’ll eventually find a prospect worth the search if you keep an open mind. Photo by Neal D.

WARNING: This is a post is about to engage in a severe form of nitpicking of two quality analysts of football – one whom I know and respect greatly. I only know the true intention of one of the two statements below about NFL quarterback prospects and that one came with Doug’s response after originally posting this peice – and it wasn’t what I was thinking. Even before posting this addendum, I had a feeling these quotes didn’t match the thoughts of the speakers.

What was more important to me about these quotes wasn’t the thoughts behind the speakers, but the general attitude I’m seeing in other contexts. Attitudes that – regardless of the intent of these quotes – sound dismissive. And it’s the conclusions these statements appear to make that are as dead wrong as Marion Crane opting for the secluded Bates Motel rather than continuing to drive on a rainy night

If you’re looking for the next Russell Wilson this year, ask yourself this: How long did it take to find the “next Drew Brees?”

-Doug Farrar, Via Twitter (See note at end of post)

Russell Wilson, you’re not going to find Russell Wilsons every year. You’re not going to find Russell Wilsons every 20 years, 5-10 ½ quarterbacks that can play at the level, you’re just not going to find. We haven’t had them before. So if you count them, forget one hand. One finger, two fingers. I mean you don’t need more than a couple of fingers to figure that out.

So at the end of the day, don’t try to find that guy. He’s not there.

– Mel Kiper

I know Doug. He’s a terrific football analyst. He’s also right about looking for Russell Wilson in the respect that there’s a microscopic likelihood of finding a player of Wilson’s overall excellence this year. I just think his statement about how long it took to find Brees represents a thought among some to not to even look.

That’s how it sounds when you read Kiper’s comment. He begins with the same statement. Then he pulls the lever for the quote machine allegedly hidden somewhere in that coif [Suggestion to any marketing managers affiliated with ESPN: the next network commercial should have a “bald Kiper.” Make it happen. You’re welcome.] and he has dismissed any attempt out of hand. Next thing you know Drew Brees wasn’t drafted in 2001 and Doug Flutie wasn’t drafted in 1985.

Flutie doesn’t belong on this list, you say? Why not? No team gave him a long-term shot. They dismissed him because he was short. Brees and Wilson have proven it’s a mistake:

I’d keep watching the NFL and see quarterbacks whom I knew I was much better than. I didn’t ever feel I got a fair shot before. The game had changed down here. The success Steve Young had. Mark Brunell. Kordell. Steve McNair. You don’t think Brett Favre plays the way I do? All those guys paved the way for me to come back. In my heart, I’ve always known I could play in this league.

– Doug Flutie

The Curry Kirkpatrick article with this quote also provides a good one from the late John Butler, the former Bills GM who also drafted Drew Brees in San Diego:

Last year, Doug would come to me with dismay on his face,” says Bruce Smith, the Bills’ equally grizzled future-Fame defender. “He didn’t think he would get his shot. But I told him to hang in, it would come. I have to root for us old guys, you know. Now, I guess he figures, ‘What have I got to do?’ If it were me … I don’t know what I’d do. But he has to keep working to prove himself every day.”

So size never hasn’t mattered. Especially when he has disappeared. “With Doug, I guess some of it was out of sight, out of mind,” says Buffalo GM John Butler, almost sheepishly. “People search in vain for a guy like this to run your team, and he’s sitting up there in Canada all along. I guess we should all be ashamed. The league was cheated out of his greatness for eight years.

Let’s not forget Charlie Ward at Florida State, either. Many of my older and savvy readers will say that Ward probably wasn’t good enough to play in the NFL and I have also had my doubts over the years. But the only thing we can really say for sure about Ward is that no one gave him a real chance to prove it.

And at least among some in tight football circles, there aren’t open minds about quarterbacks under six-foot after Russell Wilson broke the rookie touchdown record and nearly overcame a bad half of Seattle football to reach the NFC Championship Game. That’s the real issue.

You don’t dismiss Russell Wilson and Drew Brees as generational anomalies, because it’s not just about short quarterbacks. It’s about quarterbacks who aren’t deemed worthy of a first-round pick and given a two- or three-year shot to be the franchise.

These players are considered generational anomalies in NFL terms for a variety of reasons:

Russell Wilson – 3rd round/too short, 2012
Tony Romo – UDFA, 2003
Drew Brees – 2nd round/too short, 2001
Tom Brady – 6th round, 2000
Marc Bulger – 6th round, 2000
Matt Hasselbeck, 6th round, 1998
Kurt Warner – UDFA, 1994
Jeff Garcia – UDFA/too short/too light/small school, 1994
Brett Favre – 2nd round (his coach said it would take a plane crash for him to put Favre in a game) 1991
Rich Gannon – 4th round, 1987

This list isn’t filled with great quarterbacks by any means, but all of them were good starters for a period of time. Some were MVPs and Super Bowl Champions. All of these players have made a Pro Bowl at least once and earned it.

They have also have led their teams to the playoffs. Only Romo, Wilson, and Garcia haven’t led their team to a Super Bowl. That’s 10 quarterbacks since 1987 – 5 in the past 12 years – for a league that has been dismissive of picks not earning the “franchise” selection.

Imagine if media, draft analysts, and most of all, NFL organizations were more open-minded about the idea of “looking” for potential every year rather than dismissing the possibility out of hand. The list would be a lot bigger.

I’m not saying greatness comes along every year at the quarterback position, but there’s a lot of ego behind the decision to spend a high draft pick on a quarterback and that influences the dismissive tone that’s even reflected in the media who interact with NFL organizations and get sucked into the same notion.

This is why when I hear the phrase, If you’re looking for the next Russell Wilson…[forget it] it bothers me. It’s nitpicking, because I know neither Farrar nor Kiper are truly this dismissive. However, the language is a reflection of the culture they’re observing .

If you’re an NFL team or analyst and you’re not looking for the next unsung quarterback with potential to develop into a winning starter then you’re not doing your job.

Note: As mentioned early and late in this piece I imagined the intent of Farrar’s statement was not a dismissive one and if anything, I was nitpicking the tone of the comments. Farrar explains that he wished he had an opportunity to respond, considering the brief nature of Twitter and the limited space for analysis. Here is Farrar’s explanation:

“Wilson was that rarest of all prospects – maxed out in all possible attributes, but one (height) – and had discovered best ways to overcome that liability. In addition, [Wilson] was given the advantage of a perfect scheme fit in Seattle, who runs frequent two-back sets out of power zone with a west coast passing game. [This] fit Wilson perfectly from N.C. State (WCO) and Wisconsin (a two-back zone offense). Everyone who interviewed him said that at 6-foot-2, he would have been a top-5 pick. In a way, he was rarer than Brees, who needed time.to develop. What I meant by that little Twitter quote was that in a QB class with a bunch of questions and no outliers, people will look for the outlier. And they’re hosed as a result.”

For analysis of skill players entering the NFL Draft, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Walk on the Wild Side: The Immeasurable Measure of Greatness

February 14, 2013 0 Comments read Walk on the Wild Side

What is great quarterbacking? Is it the bottom-line result or the skill to place teammates i position to execute? Agree with the latter, and Steve McNair fits the greatness label. (photo courtesy of Andrew Morrell Photography). — What is great quarterbacking? Is it the bottom-line result or the skill to place teammates in position to execute? Agree with the latter and Steve McNair fits the greatness label. (Andrew Morrell Photography).

“The single trait that separates great quarterbacks from good quarterbacks is the ability to make the great, spontaneous decision, especially at a crucial time. The clock is running down and your team is five points behind. The play that was called has broken down and 22 players are moving in almost unpredictable directions all over the field. This is where the great quarterback uses his experience, vision, mobility and what we will call spontaneous genius. He makes something good happen.”

– Bill Walsh

Like a play that has broken down and 22 players are moving in almost unpredictable directions all over the field, what I’m about to share with you may not seem to connect at first. But just trust me and keep doing what you’re supposed to do and I’ll get you where we need to be.

Wikipedia describes the movie 127 Hours as a “British-American biographical survival drama, co-written and produced by Danny Boyle. The film stars James Franco as real-life canyoneer Aron Ralston, who became trapped by a bolder in an isolated slot canyon in Blue John Canyon, southeastern Utah, in April 2003, and was eventually forced to amputate his own right arm to free himself.”

The site describes the events in the plot that lead to this decision:

As he resigns himself to the fact that he is on his own, he begins recording a video diary on his camera and using the larger blade on his pocket multi-tool to attempt to chip away at the boulder. He also begins rationing his water and food. As he realizes his efforts to chip away at the boulder are futile, he begins to attempt to cut into his arm, but finds his knife too blunt to break his skin. He them stabs his arm, but realizes he will not be able to cut through the bone. He finds himself out of water and is forced to drink his own urine . . . After five days, Ralston sees his unborn son, a blond boy of about 3, through a premonition. He discovers that by using his knowledge of torque and applying enough force to his forearm, he can break the radius and then the ulna bones. He gathers the will to do so and eventually severs his arm with the smaller, less dull knife on the multi-tool. He fashions a crude tourniquet out of the insulation for his CamelBak tube and uses a carabiner to tighten it. Aaron frees himself [nearly seven days later]. He wraps the stump of his arm and takes a picture of the boulder that trapped him as he leaves it behind. he then makes his way out of the canyon, where he is forced to rappel down a 65-foot rockface and hike several miles before, exhausted and covered in blood, he finally runs into a family on a day hike. The family sends for help and Ralston is evacuated by a Utah Highway Patriol helicopter.

A sanitized description of these events is a “harrowing tale of survival.” I prefer “spiritual terror.” Truth be told what hits the spot for me is “fucked-up beyond recognition.”

A quarterback doesn’t undergo physical, mental, emotional, and spiritual torture in a football game the way Aron Ralston did in Blue John Canyon. But when I read Bill Walsh’s description of great quarterbacking, I see the plot to 127 Hours. The sense of urgency, flashes of intuition and creativity, displays of grit and survival instincts all come from the same desire to avoid death – whether it’s one that’s literal or figurative.

With defeat as the classic death metaphor, a great quarterback plays within this context. He plays the game as if he’s pinned by a boulder and his team is the motley collection of tools available to hatch an escape. Some work as planned while many are rendered useless. More often than not, a great quarterback figures out how to re-purpose those tools into something that works.

Imagine this scenario for a quarterback in a must-win game for his team to stay alive: After his opponent goes up by a touchdown, his offense is pinned to the two yard line on the ensuing kickoff. The offense must drive the length of the field with 5:39 left to tie. The quarterback, who plays in an offense heavily restricted by his head coach except in two-minute drills, throws, runs, and improvises his way through an obstacle course of dangers:

Field conditions that would never meet NFL standards today.
A 3rd and two from their own 10.
A two-minute warning and barely in the opponent’s territory.
A sack.
A 3rd and 18 where the ball bounces off the ass of the receiver motioning across the shotgun formation.
A 3rd and five from the 5 with 0:42 left.

As receiver Mark Jackson describes the game-tying touchdown in the 1987 AFC Championship game at Cleveland Municipal Stadium (8:55 mark), he explains that the play was in no way designed for him to be the target.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/iD2R98jygIk]

Difficult conditions and five near-defeat events over the course of a 98-yard drive didn’t keep John Elway from leading the Broncos to victory. But it’s not the victory that makes a quarterback great; it’s the ability to keep his team alive with his skill. Great players put teammates in position to make plays – even if his teammates don’t make them.

There are events beyond an individual’s control. Aron Ralston might have died if he didn’t encounter the family on a day hike.

Thirteen years after “The Drive,” the Tennessee Titans began a drive at their own 12 with 1:48 left and one timeout against the heavily-favored St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXIV after Isaac Bruce scores on a 73-yard play up the right flat to put the Rams up by a touchdown.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/61l-dFfqYZg]

McNair’s efforts didn’t have a happy ending like Elway’s. Still, the urgency, intuition, creativity, grit, and survival instincts are all there. When these pocket passers fall into the canyon during a game, they find ways to overcome their limitations and put their teams in position to win – different tools, same mindset.

One is unanimously considered great. The other is unanimously very good. Both possess what it took succeed in the NFL.

Examine every player through the lens of how well he places his teammates in position to succeed and greatness becomes relative to role. Marion Barber was a great closer. Craig Stevens is a great blocking tight end. Marques Colston is a great slot receiver in the Saints’ style of offense.

All three fail in some tangible skill and measure for their position.

NFL Draft analysis is often an extensive study of every tangible skill and measure a player has, but too often the cumulative result is how well a player colors inside the lines. Greatness is a consistent level of awareness and integration of skills that color outside the lines when needed.

The question is how to measure it.

Futures: Baylor WR Terrance Williams

February 13, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Baylor WR Kendall Wright is one of the top 2012 NFL Draft prospects at his position. However, college wide receivers tend to have a lot of little skills to master in order for their skills to translate to great pro production. Wright is no exception. — Terrance Williams broke Kendall Wright’s single season yardage record this year. See why I like his progression as an NFL prospect in my latest Futures column.

I like progress. Especially when that development is happening within a human being. With its high concentration of players to cover within a compressed period of practice time, one of the things sometimes lost in all-star game practice reports is the overarching performance that spans several days.

If there was a player who showed progress at the 2013 Senior Bowl it was Baylor wide receiver Terrance Williams. I didn’t see the first day of the South Team’s practice — it’s the one day where both rosters practice at different facilities on the same day — but based on the receiver’s performance and the praise Lions wide receivers coach Tim Lappanowas dishing his way in each drill, it was clear that Williams was one of the most improved players between Monday and Wednesday. If you had only seen reports about him after Tuesday’s practice, you would have concluded that he was having an inconsistent week.

Inconsistency plus sustained effort is the formula of an ugly process that leads to a beautiful result: personal growth. Williams’ growth as a player hasn’t been isolated to a few days of a college all-star game practice in late January. The Baylor star has demonstrated improvement with his game since I watched him last year.

With prototypical height and weight, the ability to catch the ball with his hands, and big-play ability in the vertical passing game and as an open-field runner, Williams is already considered one of the better wide receiver prospects in this draft class. But Williams’ development is an encouraging sign for the team that selects him in April. Here are four plays that illustrate the changes to Williams’ game. Some of these improvements are a greater consistency of execution compared to years past. I’m taking these examples from his performance in Baylor’s 52-45 overtime victory over Texas Tech in late November. Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

No-Huddle Series: LSU RB Spencer Ware (and 2015 Update)

February 10, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Running Back

[youtube=http://youtu.be/_8Hfl0SlXRQ]

(Audio of this post’s highlight videos is NSFW)

“If I had to take a hit from anybody, it wouldn’t be Spencer Ware. He’s a guy who’s going to put everything into it and fight for that extra yard.”

– Josh Dworaczyk, LSU Tackle

[Author’s Note: For a look at Ware’s work with the Chiefs, scroll to the end] I was a Spencer Ware fan the moment I watched him out-play his teammate Stevan Ridley as a freshman against Texas A&M in the 2010-2011 Cotton Bowl. Ridley had 105 yards and a touchdown to Ware’s 102. The future Patriot’s starter needed 24 touches. Ware did it with 10.

Ware isn’t a breakaway threat; he’s a hot-running, helmet-crunching, break-your-back, ball-carrying warrior. He’s rugged, smart, and technically sound in most aspects of the game. If Seattle didn’t have a Robert Turbin, Ware is the back I’d want backing up Marshawn Lynch. If Mike Shanahan wants a lean, mean, running back depth chart, he can dispense with most of the backs behind Alfred Morris and opt for Ware.

If I were Jerry Jones – oh man, if I were Jerry Jones . . . I could fill three long columns that might cause half my readers to suffocate from laughter if I wrote about what I’d do if I were the Joan Rivers of NFL owners. Mr. Jones, Commissioner Goodell on Line 1, your plastic surgeon on Line 2, and Dez Bryant’s nanny on Line 3.

It might be easy for any of these teams to make drafting Ware a reality. Les Miles has his running back flavor of the month – all due respect to a talented Jeremy Hill – which is a reason that if I were Ware, I too would have left LSU before my senior year. Combine that dynamic with the depth of this running back class and Ware might not be drafted in April.

I can think of dozens of plays to show – several flashier than the three I have here. However, I couldn’t think of many better opponents than – according to Football Outsiders metrics – South Carolina’s 12th-ranked run defense. Here is one play that reveals aspects of Ware’s game that makes him an NFL-ready runner – regardless of when or if he’s drafted.

Running Back Effectiveness: Pad level > Speed

Speed is breath-taking and it scares defenses witless because one play can spell a six-point end of a series. But Al Davis’ “Speed Kills” mantra is dead, because it’s a lot like shark attacks: it scares more often than it kills. Just like the nature of sharks, we understand the nature of speed better than we used to.

Rarely in football can speed be the primary and secondary weapon of a running back. Once a player has the baseline level of speed required to compete in the NFL, there are several other factors that are far more important. Ask Arian Foster, Frank Gore, Marshawn Lynch, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Steven Jackson, Willis McGahee, Alfred Morris, and Michael Turner if breakaway speed is all-important – this list comprises eight of the top-24 runners in 2012 and three of the top-six performers.

Spencer Ware has the skill to join this list if he can make the most of his opportunities. Here’s Ware demonstrating the skill and maturity I’m talking about on a six-yard gain for the first down on a 3^rd and 1 from the Gamecocks’ 21 with 9:20 in the first quarter. The play begins as a 22-personnel, I-formation run versus nine defenders in the box (above). Ware begins the play by taking the exchange behind his fullback towards left guard.

The South Carolina defender’s penetration and attack of the fullback drops the lead blocker three yards behind the line of scrimmage. From this point of the exchange, Ware has about two steps to avoid the pileup about to happen in the backfield.

Ware bounces the run inside with a quick cut through the lane up the middle of the defense, gaining two yards untouched. As big as this hole appears now, South Carolina’s defensive front is filled with the type of athletes to close a crease right-quick and in a hurry.

Ware has to step over the rest of his jack-knifed fullback in the backfield as the defense begins to close the crease from three separate points. A first down is likely, due to the width of the initial opening towards the line of scrimmage. However, within two steps Ware and these three defenders should meet at the 20 and good pad level will be essential for the LSU Tiger to get the job done.

Ware gets his pads lower than the oncoming defender and at a depth that allows him to squirt under the front. The point isn’t to break a long play as much as avoid enough contact to ensure a first down. It’s surprising how many good college backs forget this point and lean too hard on their strength or speed.

Ware ducks under the second level of the defense – five defenders total – to get the first down. This is the point where I expected to play to end, but Ware is only a third of the way through. His pad level, leg drive, balance, and strength gets him through the the other side of this pile of future NFL defenders.

Ware emerges from the four-defender cave with good body lean down field and in position to gain extra yards despite three of these four defenders still holding onto him. With a 5-11, 223-pound frame, Ware keeps his legs moving and earns three extra yards, extricating himself from two of the three defenders before the defensive back hits the runner head-on at the 15.

Quick feet. Pad level. Balance. Strength. Second effort. All components of an excellent short-yardage runner against one of the best defenses in college football. My colleague Ryan Lownes mentioned on Twitter that he sees an athlete of Rudi Johnson’s ilk – not a breakaway runner, but a player capable of grinding it out as a bell cow back. I think if you combine the styles of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Marshawn Lynch, it captures a lot of the good that is in Spencer Ware’s game. Of course, name-dropping Marion Barber may suffice:

[youtube=http://youtu.be/iqmIby3LYkQ]

2015 Update: Due to a season-ending injury as a Seahawk and two off-field incidents that earned him a ticket out of town (despite a scout telling me that the team really liked him as a tailback), it took longer than anyone might imagine for Ware to display his talents. But Ware earned a shot in relief of Charcandrick West against the Chargers and he looked much like the player mentioned above.

Remember this play from LSU?

[youtube=https://youtu.be/_8Hfl0SlXRQ?t=30s]

Looks a lot like this play with the Chiefs

[wpvideo W3BbMsiz]

Although not exact, look at the recklessness at the goal line to vault and/or spin off contact at LSU and then with the Chiefs.

[youtube=https://youtu.be/_8Hfl0SlXRQ?t=1m10s]

[wpvideo nS8G6261]

There’s also that combination of knowing when to be patient behind the line of scrimmage and balancing his wiggle with straight-up power to attack defenses once into the crease.

[youtube=https://youtu.be/_8Hfl0SlXRQ?t=1m32s]

[wpvideo LnwRUa5k]

The Chargers defense is a weak unit, but it’s still a professional grade defense and Ware looked every bit like the player who arguably out-played Stevan Ridley at LSU.

Don’t be surprised if Ware earns a shot to split time with West, if not usurp West’s role. The schedule is favorable for the Chiefs ground game, Ware is fresh, and West’s hamstring injury could give Andy Reid an excuse to give Ware an extended tryout for the lead role.

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2015 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Emerging Talents: Lamar Miller

February 5, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Running Back

Second-year pro Lamar Miller reminds me stylistically of Clinton Portis. The upside is also there to reach that skill level. Photo by Keith Allison

Evan Silva termed Miami running back Lamar Miller “the early preseason-buzz MVP.” Understandable. He’s a back whose talents reminded me of two of his University of Miami predecessors: Clinton Portis and Edgerrin James. The 2012 rookie is earning a lot of encouraging PR from his organization. With Reggie Bush leaving and third-year back Daniel Thomas not flashing the promise that Miller demonstrated in limited time, there’s good reason for Miller to be coined an emerging talent in 2013.

Miller was my No.3 back in the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio behind Trent Richardson and Doug Martin. Here’s my brief summary of Miller from these rankings:

Lamar Miller is a potential Pro Bowl back. He’s at the sweet spot in terms of height, weight, speed, and acceleration. He runs with patience, balance, and he protects the football. He understands how to stay close to his blocks until an opening develops and like Clinton Portis and Edgerrin James before him, he knows how to shorten his steps in traffic until he finds a cutback lane or alternate crease when the primary hole doesn’t come open. He runs with good balance and power between the tackles. He can run through contact and he has good enough footwork to prevent defenders from getting angles on him. He bends runs with good speed and he has shown some skill to pick and slide towards creases or press a crease and cut back. He keeps his legs moving after contact and his pad level is consistently low enough that he bounces off hits and maximizes his output on carries. He knows how to minimize his surface area in the hole and still get down hill fast.

Miller is fast and his burst is Pro Bowl-caliber in the respect that when given a hole he can accelerate past all three levels of a defense and turn a 10-yard gain into a 40-yard touchdown. There is little doubt that Miller has a ton of physical talent, but there are plays where he seems to go out of bounds too willingly where he could have fought to stay in the field of play and gain more yardage. These plays occurred when time wasn’t a factor for the drive. Miller catches the ball as well as any back in this class. He uses his hands to snare passes and he repeatedly demonstrated the ability to catch the errant throw with good body control and concentration. I saw him make an acrobatic catch that was over 25 yards from release point to reception that many college WR’s can’t make.

Miller’s effort as a blocker is not good enough. He will deliver a punch and he has skill at getting the correct angle to make a block. However, he doesn’t sustain the contact and work hard enough to maintain that position. Miller diagnoses blocks effectively, but he has to do better with his cut blocking. He drops his head too early As a run blocker, he seems more worried about getting hit from behind or hurt in the act of blocking that helping his teammates make plays.

I can see the Clinton Portis comparisons because Miller has game-breaking speed, explosive lateral agility, and enough down hill power and balance to generate big plays in multiple ways. The difference is that Miller makes running the football look easier than Portis did in college and I think it might be part of the perception that his effort isn’t always there when in fact, he’s just more graceful than people realize. Purely on ability, he could start for an NFL team today. The key will be how well he transitions from a college campus to professional life.

Lamar Miller highlights:

[youtube=http://youtu.be/f7dxPzUBoi4]

After the draft, I dropped Miller a couple spots in my post-draft rankings, listing him as a “bad fit,” with a caveat:

Here’s another loaded depth chart situation in Miami where the draft pick will have to beat multiple teammates for an opportunity. Although Miller and Daniel Thomas are different styles of runner, Reggie Bush played well enough that it’s difficult to expect the rookie will see playing time as more than a return specialist unless Bush gets hurt. Past history does call Bush’s durability into question, but the former Saints runner stayed healthy in 2011. Running back has a short-term career cycle in the NFL so calling Miller’s fit “bad” today can change to “great” tomorrow.

Apparently, tomorrow is here. Below are links to play-by-play reports and grading reports from two of the three games that I believe best represent Miller’s skill and potential. These reports are the backbone for the analysis that I provide to those who download the Rookie Scouting Portfolio every year. My readers who want the bottom-line may not spend a lot of time with this portion of the publication, but they know the analysis they get in the front of the book is based on the exhaustive detail of the process I share for the sake of transparency.

Lamar Miller Sample Play-by-Play Reports

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.