Posts tagged 2013 NFL Draft

Tulane QB Ryan Griffin and The Disconnect Between Evaluating and Drafting Talent

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Is QB Mike Glennon a draft-not-to-lose pick? If he goes in the first two rounds, I think so. Photo by Akulawolf.
Is QB Mike Glennon a draft-not-to-lose pick? If he goes in the first two rounds, I think so. Photo by Akulawolf.

The flavor of Texas versus Nation week may well have been 6-4, 216-pound Tulane quarterback Ryan Griffin. NFL Draft analyst Dane Brugler was among several who believe Griffin’s stock is on the rise to the point that he should hear his name called in April. Compared to the Geno Smiths, Matt Barkleys, Mike Glennons, and Tyler Wilsons of this prospect class, the changing perception of Griffin’s draft grade seems like an afterthought. The fact that Griffin served as the front man for a 2-10 squad doesn’t  help.

It’s one thing for a non-quarterback talent like Matt Forte, a Tulane alum playing for a routinely over-matched team to earn a high draft grade, but quarterbacks with losing records aren’t at the top of most draft boards. Still,  we hear every year from the likes of those who study the game at the front lines that if the first trait you hear about a college quarterback is that he’s a winner and a leader it means that he can’t play at the NFL level.

Eric Crouch. Kellen Moore. Tim Tebow. Ken Dorsey. Kliff Kingsbury.

The list of winning college quarterbacks with no NFL game is long. It’s also filled with passers who possess NFL potential, but their college win-loss record dampens their reputation, lessens their exposure, and diminishes their draft stock. Based on the way reps are given to NFL quarterbacks in many organizations, the lower the draft pick, the less likely that prospect sees meaningful time to develop his game.

It’s a processes that skews the dynamic that the better NFL talent is at the top of the draft board. Don’t get me wrong, I believe if every team had open competitions among quarterbacks on NFL rosters that the higher draft picks would tend to perform better than the lower picks, but I believe it wouldn’t be as dominant an edge as the current data suggests.

The reason is that positional need and a prospect’s attributes away from the field appeal to draft-day decision makers just enough that skill and talent aren’t the only factors involved in a player’s evaluation. Sometimes these other factors are important, but I also believe they often mislead decision makers.

The Disconnect Between Evaluating and Draft Talent

Play fantasy football for any length of time and you learn there is difference between evaluating talent and drafting talent. One is about identifying who is worth picking. The other is about knowing when to pull the trigger. As much as the media likes to combine the two when they use on-air analysts like Mel Kiper, Mike Mayock, and Todd McShay, there are two separate skills that often generate more conflict than congruence.

This is a major reason why I don’t do mock drafts. I don’t interview prospects. I don’t have an organizational understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of evaluators. I don’t know the total football philosophy, teaching, and management styles of coaches or the inner dynamics of the players on every team.  What I can see and understand is on-field behavior.

The way some NFL executives value win-loss records, they may think a 2-10 team like Tulane looks like this. Photo by Tulane Public Relations.
The way some NFL executives value win-loss records, they may think a 2-10 team like Tulane looks like this. Photo by Tulane Public Relations.

There is no greater example of the disconnect that can exist between scouting and drafting talent than at quarterback. Alex Marvez reports that NFL scouts and management are divided on the importance a quarterback prospect’s win-loss record. Marvez recounting of the Broncos’ inner debate of the merits of Jay Cutler, Matt Leinart, and Vince Young is a great example.

I evaluated all three players. Young was the most physically talented, but he played in an offense that did not require him to develop the craft of quarterbacking from the pocket. Leinart had a good start on the craft needed for the NFL game, but he lacked the physical talent. Cutler had the best combination of athleticism, passing skill, and mental toughness on the board.

I had Cutler as my top quarterback, Young No.2, and Matt Leinart as an overrated prospect – essentially tied with Bengals backup Bruce Gradkowski – at No.3. Read Marvez’s piece above and you’ll see that my perspective that the combination of physical talent, positional skill, and on-field behavior mirrors the takes of many NFL scouts. However, the 2006 NFL draft order for the three was Young first, Leinart second, and Cutler third.

It’s not much of a coincidence that Young’s team won the national championship, Leinart’s team won a national championship the year before and then faced Young’s team in the 2005-2006 title game, and Cutler was on a bottom-dwelling SEC team. Scouts are worker bees; they aren’t the major voices in most NFL war rooms. The general managers and executives are the ones who tend to place the greatest emphasis on win-loss record.

“In many respects, you’re going to be asking him to carry your team in the NFL,” [former Colts GM Bill] Polian told FOXSports.com. “If he can’t carry his team at the collegiate level, which is quite a bit lower in terms of the level of competition, what makes you think he can do it at this level?”

Polian makes a good point and it’s one that I think is lost on many – possibly Polian himself. I admit that may be parsing the words of the former Colts GM too finely here; Polian may believe that “carrying a team” is more than just a winning record. At the same time, I do think his response and Marvez’s report illustrates that win-loss record carries too heavy a weight in the warrooms of NFL teams.

Re-Thinking the “Winner” Concept

Greg Cosell, the producer at NFL Films, wrote a thought-provoking conversation starter about why he thinks the NFL culture needs to re-think the “winner” concept. I’m continuing that conversation here, because I believe Polian’s idea of “carrying a team” is the best place to start. If NFL executives do a better job of defining how a quarterback carries a team, they will do a better job of integrating talent evaluation into the draft-day process.

Returning to the 2006 NFL Draft of Young-Leinart-Cutler, we would later learn that Young – who many would say “carried” the Longhorns to a BCS title – lacked the maturity and work ethic to cross the great emotional divide between being a talented pro prospect and becoming a consistent, productive pro player. Leinart – a Heisman Trophy Winner – had many in the media drawing parallels to Tom Brady’s game, but he also had difficulties crossing the same divide as Young.  Leinart and Young were on rosters with a lot of future NFL players.

Cutler is the one college quarterback who consistently showed he could carry his team against opponents that outmatched his teammates. Photo by Jeffrey Beall.
Cutler is the one college quarterback who consistently showed he could carry his team against opponents that outmatched his teammates. Photo by Jeffrey Beall.

The same can’t be said of Cutler. Vanderbilt’s notable NFL players from the Cutler era include Jovan Haye, Earl Bennett, and Jonathan Goff.  Texas and USC’s list is staggering by comparison:

  • Shaun Cody
  • Mike Patterson
  • Mike Williams
  • Frostee Rucker
  • Reggie Bush
  • Deuce Lutui
  • Steve Smith
  • Winston Justice
  • Ryan Kalil
  • Terrell Thomas
  • Fred Davis
  • Chilo Rachal
  • Sam Baker
  • Lawrence Jackson
  • Keith Rivers
  • Sedrick Ellis
  • Roy Williams
  • Nathan Vasher
  • Bo Scaife
  • Derrick Johnson
  • Dave Thomas
  • Cedric Griffin
  • Michael Huff
  • Brian Robison
  • Michael Griffin
  • Aaron Ross
  • Jamaal Charles
  • Jermichael Finley

Cutler was also the subject of another intense debate during that 2006 NFL Draft. The Titans executives, coaching staff, and scouts each had different favorites. Owner Bud Adams clearly wanted Young. The scouts wanted Cutler. The coaches were split. Norm Chow, Leinart’s former offensive coordinator and the Titans coordinator at the time, wanted his former pupil. To the best of my knowledge, Fisher’s favorite has never been made public. However, it was divulged on draft day that then-Broncos coach Mike Shanahan called Fisher the night before and asked him about Jay Cutler. Shanahan told the media that Fisher believed Cutler had everything you wanted from a quarterback. The Broncos traded up for Cutler and while he has his flaws, he has been far and away the most successful of the 2006 class and still has potential for a better career ahead.

When I watched Young, Leinart, and Cutler, the player I thought who did the best job of “carrying” his team was Cutler – no contest. The reason is that I define the concept of carrying a team as putting players in position to succeed regardless of the level of competition or the data in the box score – including the scoreboard. Leinart had surrounding talent who routinely put the USC quarterback in position to succeed more than the other way around.

One of the big reasons I had Steve Smith as my No.3 receiver prospect in 2007’s draft class was that he demonstrated NFL-caliber athleticism, technique, and awareness in situations that his quarterback Leinart created when his execution was not NFL caliber. Smith carried Leinart as much or more in the passing game than Leinart carried Smith.

I’d argue more.

Despite great surrounding talent, there was no question that Young carried his offense at Texas. However, Young was thrust into a pro game that expected him to acquire and refine skills that were not the strength of his game. My buddy Sigmund Bloom has wondered how Young may have fared if his introduction to the NFL game was through a spread/pistol scheme that Robert Griffin has in Washington. I think it’s a fair question, but just six years ago the NFL was still fitting square pegs into round holes.

Drafting to Win vs. Drafting Not to Lose

The change in mentality is still slow because present decisions seemed to be reinforced by past history. There’s an urgency for teams in need of a quarterback to select one in the first round despite the fact that the failure rate remains high. ESPN’s Mike Tirico asked Bill Parcells during his inaugural Draft Confidential special in 2011 why teams continued to draft quarterbacks in the first round despite the failure rate and the Hall of Famer said that every other team is doing it, and the fear of not getting one drives you to do the same.

Former NFL.com and NFL Network analyst Chad Reuter, a talent evaluator with economic training who has provided analysis to NFL teams, gives even better explanation of this dynamic:

The fear of not finding a quarterback certainly comes into play for most teams. Let’s face it, coaches without a strong quarterback are probably going to be looking for work sooner than later. I have a mathematical background so I have a bit different way of looking at this problem that a lot of coaches and football guys like Parcells may not. My research into drafting quarterbacks reveals a second-round prospect’s chances of becoming a solid starter is around 20 percent, maybe a little higher for earlier picks in the round.  But the likelihood of a second-round pick at another position becoming a true difference-maker is probably 50-50 at best.

So, if you value a QB 3-4 more times than a typical position player it is understandable to me why people will take that 20 percent chance on finding a quarterback . . . If somebody says, “I’ll flip a coin and I’ll give you $100 if you guess correctly,” you expect a value of $50 because you have a 50-50 shot of getting it right. If someone else says, “If you cast this die, and you roll a one then I’ll give you $400,” then that expected value will be $66.66  (1 out of 6 x $400). The math of it makes sense for teams that believe the QB is worth the chance.

That’s not exactly what Parcells was saying, but that’s what most coaches would tell you if they had the mathematical background.A 20 percent hit rate in the second round isn’t very good, but it continues to get worse and worse as the draft goes on. The Bradys — and even the Hasselbecks — come few and far late in the draft. So I can understand why teams take the chance.

The math makes sense to the degree that it explains the results of the current decisions that NFL teams are making. However, that math doesn’t tell why a second-around prospect has less of a chance being a difference maker than the first-rounder or why the Bradys and Hasselbecks are rare. The standard explanation is that better talent tends to be drafted earlier than lesser talent.

The problem I have with this explanation is that the teams experiencing success often have game changers who were exceptions to the rule: Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, and Russell Wilson are three examples. The greater the exception, the more dramatic the advantage. Playing the percentages may keep a team from making draft-day mistakes that compound with each pick, but it can also keep a team from winning big.

Organizations often use the data “not to lose.” The problem with making these decisions based on this data is that when a team fails on these “not-to-lose,” first-round quarterbacks  it has committed to a three- or four-year process of giving a player a chance and/or a huge sum of money. Considering the career span of the average NFL player is still around three years and also the approximate length of a team’s playoff window, missing on a high-round quarterback and playing out the string of “appropriate development time” is a huge setback.

Based on what I believe about Matt Barkley and Mike Glennon’s game, selecting them in the first two rounds of the 2013 NFL Draft will be a decision two teams will make “not to lose.” They fit all the safe bullet points in terms of physical potential, system, and basic skills at the position. Neither possess the slam-dunk, early-round skills, in-game performance, and potential to put their players in position to win on as consistent a number of snaps as I value. The problem with making these decision based on this data is that when a team fails on this “not to lose” early-round passer is that it has committed to a three- or four-year process for a lot more money than taking a lower-round talent with equal or greater potential, but less marquee value.

Teams also miss on additional talent that can be parlayed into acquiring a quarterback. Trades for marquee quarterbacks may be rare, but you can’t tell me that the Vikings and Broncos talent weren’t a draw for Brett Favre and Peyton Manning. Quality attracts quality.

Considering need is fine, but I believe a team should always build on talent. If the talent fits the need – great, but the most important skill that evaluators and executives may need to develop is how to resist the pressure of succumbing to need over talent and fooling themselves into thinking they haven’t.

Whether I’m right or wrong about Barkley or Glennon is not the point. The disconnect between scouting and drafting  is apparent and it will continue even if Russell Wilson’s selection and open opportunity to earn the job in Seattle is a potential glimmer of change. However, Wilson was a winner at N.C. State and Wisconsin. Marvez’s piece shows that there is a belief  if the quarterback isn’t succeeding when it comes to the bottom line then it’s a red flag for his NFL potential.

Fascinating that on the one hand football is the ultimate team sport, but no individual is more celebrated and coveted in any sport than quarterback. NFL team and personnel believe that you can’t win without one, yet there are plenty of superstar passers who lacked the surrounding talent to get the job done. It’s not a one  or the other proposition.

Why Ryan Griffin is a More Appropriate “Not to Lose” Option With “Draft to Win” Characteristics

Tulane’s Ryan Griffin is the example of a talented quarterback lacking the surrounding talent to elevate his draft status. Unlike Jay Cutler, Griffin lacks the mobility to make big plays with his legs or the extraordinary arm talent to make pinpoint throws from corners that defenses paint him into. Griffin is a classic pocket passer.

Some say that the pocket passer is dying in the NFL. I think that’s a melodramatic statement. A truer reality is that the NFL is becoming more open minded to schemes that allow mobile quarterbacks to continue using their skills within a complementary offensive  framework. Pocket passing isn’t dying as much as its monopoly is breaking up.

Griffin may never get the opportunity as a late-round pick to thrive like the marquee names of his 2013 draft class, but I think Griffin – even with his flaws – has shown enough that if he were at USC, Maryland, or Arkansas, “earning a draft pick” wouldn’t be a part of the conversation this late in the process. What Griffin’s game displays that’s as good or better than the likes of Barkley or Glennon is his in-game acumen, pocket presence, maneuverability, and accuracy down field.

These are skills that if you read some of the commentary from those reporting at Texas v. Nation, it sounds as if Griffin vastly improved in these areas since the end of the season or displayed skills he hasn’t shone before. This notion that Griffin is a surprise to those who truly study prospects is inaccurate. Brugler studies players year-round, I doubt his reporting was based on being “surprised,” as much as following what he’s heard from scouts. I think many of those surprised by Griffin were those who overlooked the Tulane quarterback because he plays on a struggling team and isn’t at the top of the draft day radar.

Here are five plays that demonstrate how Griffin’s skills aren’t isolated to the effects of some magical elixir he imbibed from the Great Gazoo.

Pre-and Post-Snap Reads

The game I’m using features Tulane against the University of Houston. Because the Cougars built an early lead, Tulane abandoned the run early and they only tried one play action pass the entire game. The commanding lead also gave Houston the opportunity to blitz Griffin, which creates a good environment to observe a pocket passer under duress.

Tulane uses a short passing game – a lot of 10 and 20 personnel shotgun with swing passes to backs and short perimeter routes to receivers complemented with crossing routes. However, Griffin is also effective as a deep passer. His first foray down field in this game came on 1st and 10 from the Houston 41 from a 1×2 receiver, 20 personnel shotgun set with 13:01 in the half.

This is the pre-snap look Griffin has, the safety rotation just before the snap, and Griffin's resulting read.
This is the pre-snap look Griffin has, the safety rotation just before the snap, and Griffin’s resulting read.

Houston’s initial alignment is two safeties high, but late in the pre-snap phase the safeties rotate to a single-high look. Griffin notes this change and as he takes the snap and drops back, he looks to the opposite hash where the safety is creeping up.

Griffin reads the safety shift, which means the safety as the slot man. The LB takes the RB flanking Griffin's left. The outside corners have the perimeter receivers one-on-one and the safety over top as center field.
Griffin reads the safety shift, which means the safety as the slot man. The LB takes the RB flanking QB’s left. The outside corners have the perimeter receivers one-on-one and the safety over top as center field.

This is a good post-snap read and Griffin understands that the rotation of the safety from the right flat to the middle gives his single receiver running a streak up the right flat a one-on-one opportunity that is the quarterback’s best chance to hit a big play. Griffin finishes a decent, three-step drop from the gun and delivers the ball 38 yards down field from his release point to the receiver’s reception point at the Houston 10.

Griffin's receiver has great vertical separation on the corner. The lack of horizontal separation from the center fielder is Griffin's doing.
Griffin’s receiver has great vertical separation on the corner. The lack of horizontal separation from the center fielder is Griffin’s doing.

It’s not as apparent as the future shots will make it, but Griffin throws this pass short. The receiver is already turning his shoulders back to the quarterback as he’s tracking the ball and it’s this shoulder turn that is a sure sign that the ball is late or under thrown. I’ll show why the short throw is not an issue of anticipation, but first let’s continue to examine the end result. Griffin’s throw is not only forcing the receiver to slow his stride, but it’s giving that safety the angle to break up the pass that a better throw would otherwise prevent.

The receiver should have caught this pass, but the quarterback should have made the catch uncontested.
The receiver should have caught this pass, but the quarterback should have made the catch uncontested.

GriffinA5

GriffinA6

As the ball arrives behind the receiver, the safety knocks the ball away from the WR’s grip. If Griffin throws this ball 2-4 yards further down field, the receiver catches the ball in stride behind both the corner and safety, and has a strong chance of scoring. The issue isn’t the timing, but the distance. However, you’ll see later that arm strength isn’t Griffin’s problem. On this play, it’s his feet.

When Griffin finishes his drop and hitches forward his feet are nearly three yards apart before he steps into the throw.
When Griffin finishes his drop and hitches forward his feet are  too far apart before he steps into the throw.
Stepping into the throw and widening the gap further, Griffin is unable to generate the power through his hips that he needs to throw the ball down field.
Stepping into the throw and widening the gap further, Griffin is unable to generate the power through his hips that he needs to throw the ball down field.

The pass should have arrived somewhere between the six and eight yard line for the receiver to continue his pace down field, run through the arrive pass, and catch it in stride beyond the defense. Although this is a mistake that costs Tulane a touchdown, Griffin comes back to the same receiver on the very next play and finds him on a slant for 26-yard play.

On the next play, Houston rotates his safeties in the opposite direction, opening the slant behind the defender creeping up.
On the next play, Houston rotates his safeties in the opposite direction, opening the slant behind the defender creeping up.

Griffin reads the safety working towards the box and hits the receiver on the slant breaking behind the defender – the same receiver he under threw the play before.  What I like about this play is the eye control to manipulate the defender.

Griffin knows he want to hit the slant, behind the safety, but holds that safety to the flat in the box with his eyes on the back.
Griffin knows he want to hit the slant, behind the safety, but holds that safety to the flat in the box with his eyes on the back.

Better yet, Griffin’s shoulders and knees are pointed to the back, further selling the swing pass. A beat later, the ball is out of Griffin’s hand and the safety has reacted to the back, opening a window behind him for the ball to reach the slanting receiver.

Oops.
Oops.
Pass arrives in stride and with a ton of open field ahead.
Pass arrives in stride and with a ton of open field ahead.

Pocket Presence and Footwork

Although Griffin’s feet weren’t in great position to throw the touchdown at the top of the second quarter, this 2nd-and-even pass with 1:55 in the third quarter from a 2×2 receiver, 10 personnel shotgun set is all about a players ability to climb the pocket and keep his feet in position to make an accurate throw down field.

Griffin's eventual target is the receiver slot right up the seam for a touchdown, which he makes happen when he buys time in the pocket.
Griffin’s eventual target is the receiver slot right up the seam for a touchdown, which he makes happen when he buys time in the pocket.

GriffinC2

Griffin finishes a five-step drop as the right defensive tackle stunts around right end and the left defensive end work around the left tackle. The receiver slot right is still covered at the hash. After Griffin’s first hitch, the quarterback’s feet are spaced at an appropriate width to deliver the ball with distance and power.

GriffinC3

Better yet, Griffin feels the pressure from his blind side, climbs the pocket with two hitch steps and maintains good width with his feet to deliver the deep ball.

GriffinC4

Although Griffin’s foot width as he delivers the ball is nearly as wide as the previous deep throw, the fact that he finished his drop with a narrow foot width gives the quarterback more control as he hitches forward and begins his release. The ball travels 50 yards from Griffin’s release point to the receiver’s reception point – a 41-yard pitch and catch for a 51-yard score.

GriffinC5

The Tulane receiver lost the ball from a punch-out at the seven, but recovers it in the end zone for the touchdown. Great throw from Griffin, who maneuvers the pocket and keeps his feet under him.

I also like that Griffin has the maturity to know when to buy time and when to throw the ball away. On the first play of Tulane’s initial possession of the fourth quarter, pressure up the middle flushes Griffin left and forces the quarterback to throw the ball away. On the next play – a 2nd-and-10 pass with 14:09 left in the game from a 2×2 receiver, 10-personnel – Griffin feels pressure once again, but this time has room to hang in the pocket and make a play.

GriffinD1

After a five-step drop, Griffin has two shallow crossers working open and an intermediate cross developing as both edge rushers get around the corner.

GriffinD2

Griffin does a fine job of reducing his shoulder from the outside pressure and climbs the pocket with his eyes down field.
Griffin does a fine job of reducing his shoulder from the outside pressure and climbs the pocket with his eyes down the field.
Griffin finishes climbing with his feet in position to deliver an accurate throw.
Griffin finishes climbing with his feet in position to deliver an accurate throw.
GriffinD5
Griffin delivers the intermediate cross 17 yards down field to the same flat, hitting the receiver in stride.

Arm Strength

Griffin lacks an elite arm, but he has a starter-caliber arm right now with room to improve that arm strength as he adds more weight to that 216-pound frame that was listed at 206 pounds at the beginning of his senior season. This deep ball on a 2nd-and-three from the Tulane 41 with 10:55 left is a good example. Tulane runs a 10 personnel shotgun set with receivers 1×3 and Griffin’s target is the outside receiver on the trips side.

GriffinE1

Griffin takes three hitch steps to climb the pocket between edge rushers.
Griffin takes three hitch steps to climb the pocket between edge rushers.
Griffin looks off the safety and has his feet under him to execute a good throw.
Griffin looks off the safety and has his feet under him to execute a good throw.
Griffin gets the ball over 50 yards down field from the far hash to the near flat.
Griffin gets the ball over 50 yards down field from the far hash to the near flat.

The Tulane quarterback hits the receiver in the hands 50 yards down field, but the receiver drops the ball because he lays out for it early. If the receiver runs through ball rather than leaps for it at the 47 he probably catches this in stride.

If I’m seeing these skills from Griffin it’s likely another NFL team likes what they see from the Tulane product. Griffin will have to do a better job of reading man-under and other variations of zone. He’ll also have to curb his desire to power the ball into tight spaces or over linebackers in coverage who have good drop depth. None of his issues are fatal flaws. The only one may be his win-loss record and the mountain he may have to climb as a late-round pick or free agent.

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

2013 RSP Update & Film Notes

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The writer is old, but his equipment has been upgraded thanks to you. Photo by Chandler Mowery.
Same old writer, but new equipment – thanks to you. Photo by Chandler Mowery.

It’s been a jam-packed month of travel and prospect analysis over at RSP headquarters. Today’s post reveals my first update of players I’ve done play-by-play study for the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – 168 players (and counting).Below is the list, but first some quick thoughts about some of the players I’ve watched this month.

Before I get to that, I’d like to thank my loyal readers, who’ve helped me make two investments back into this modest venture: A new PC with two monitors and a new television. My first trusty TV for player viewing was a late-`90s Sanyo standard screen box set that I bought at a pawn shop 10 years ago. It took up a third of my desk. As you can see above, the new set and the wall mount makes a great working environment. If you’re reading this then you’ve helped make this possible.

Quick Takes

A big part of studying players is projecting potential NFL performance provided that the work ethic, scheme fit, and organizational stability are all favorable. This is why that many of my favorite players that I study each year aren’t the marquee names in the Top-100. Ask anyone who truly studies the game – especially players – and you begin to see how players can develop into contributors, starters, or even stars despite lacking a marquee college pedigree.

  • A player I can see developing into a future contributor is Arizona QB Matt Scott. His footwork is a big cause of his inaccuracy down field, but a clue to him developing better accuracy is in the fact that he throws the ball well on the run. He has good velocity and an aggressive mindset with mobility than may suit this new age of NFL offense. I’d rather take a chance on Scott late or in free agency than draft Landry Jones. I know this will ruffle some feathers of Sooners fans, but I believe it is difficult for quarterbacks to improve down-field aggressiveness and anticipation. The mechanics can improve, but I believe Scott as the mentality than Jones lacks.
  • LSU has good college backs who have done little in the NFL: Keiland Williams, Charles Scott, Justin Vincent, Rondell Mealey, and Harvey Williams among them. Joseph Addai, Kevin Faulk, and Domanick Davis are noted exceptions. The best LSU back I have seen since Joseph Addai is one of my favorite runners in this draft class – junior Spencer Ware. I’ll be writing about him soon. When I do, you’ll wonder what’s been going on with Ware or LSU behind the scenes because he was under utilized. If you love the running style of Marion Barber or Marshawn Lynch, Ware is your kind of back.
  • It’s a subtle thing, but Central Florida runner Latavius Murray has one of the strangest styles I have seen in a runner in several years. I’m looking forward to watching more of him because the best way I can describe his style is the running back version of Drunken Master boxing. I’ll have my final verdict in the next 6-8 weeks, but let’s just say he’s entertaining.
  • Michigan State tight end Dion Sims reminds me an updated version of Steeler/Ravens tight end Eric Green. Big, fluid, and with soft hands, Sims will excite an NFL team with his potential. But if you’re seeking Pro Bowl upside, I can think of at least five tight ends that I’d rather take in this draft.
  • Seeking upside potential? Rutgers wide receiver Mark Harrison has the combo of physical skills and fundamentals to develop into a better pro than collegian. Big, physical, fast enough to get deep, and capable of big plays with the ball int he air, he’s going to have days in practices where he lights it up. The question will be if he can become a consistent producer.
  • I mentioned this on Twitter on Monday: Marquess Wilson may have cost himself a chance to get drafted after quitting the Washington State program, but if you watch Wilson against Oregon you’ll see a player who didn’t quit, didn’t celebrate little victories, and continued to battle despite dropping some passes that few NFL players would catch. I see a stronger-than-you-think receiver with preternatural skills to position himself between the incoming pass and the defense and a quick first step. Wilson and Spencer Ware are the two players I’d most like to interview this year with the perspective of a GM.
  • Ronnie Williams, T.J. Moe, and Ryan Swope all have slot skills that I’m looking forward to seeing develop at the next level. Moe and Swope are the most talked about, but Williams – a receiver from Houston – is a quick, powerful for his size, and reminds me of a more explosive Davone Bess.
  • Doug Farrar and I joked around about Nick Kasa at the Senior Bowl. I’ve given him the nickname the “Ulu Knife” because like this food prep tool, he’s useful, has unique properties, but might not fit in the every-day, household offense of the NFL.
  • Collin Klein has little to offer in terms of NFL-caliber accuracy, but I love watching him play football. If you appreciate good football appropriate to the level it is, watch a K-State game with Klein at the helm. I wish I could combine Klein’s mentality for the game into E.J. Manuel or Tyler Bray’s body.

First 2013 RSP Update

As always, the Rookie Scouting Portfolio will be available April 1 for download. Prepayment is available now. The post-draft analysis will be available a week after the NFL Draft. I’m happy to say I’m on schedule for the eighth straight year to meet that April 1 deadline. You can see the players I’ve watched (often multiple times) below. You can find this list here.

QBs

  • Collin Klein
  • E.J. Manuel
  • Geno Smith
  • James Vandenberg
  • Jordan Rodgers
  • Landry Jones
  • Matt Barkley
  • Matt Scott
  • Mike Glennon
  • Ryan Griffin
  • Ryan Nassib
  • Tyler Bray
  • Tyler Wilson

RBs

  • Andre Ellington
  • Benny Cunningham
  • C.J. Anderson
  • Cameron Marshall
  • Chris Thompson
  • Christine Michael
  • Cierre Wood
  • Curtis McNeal
  • Dennis Johnson
  • D.J. Harper
  • Ed Wesley
  • Eddie Lacy
  • Eric Stephens, Jr.
  • George Winn
  • Giovani Bernard
  • Isi Sofele
  • James Sims
  • James Washington
  • Jawan Jamison
  • Jeremy Brown
  • John White
  • Johnathan Franklin
  • Joseph Randle
  • Kenjon Barner
  • Kerwynn Williams
  • Knile Davis
  • Latavius Murray
  • Le’Veon Bell
  • Marcus Lattimore
  • Max Milien
  • Michael Dyer
  • Michael Ford
  • Miguel Maysonet
  • Mike Gillislee
  • Mike James
  • Montee Ball
  • Montel Harris
  • Onterrio McCalebb
  • Orwin Smith
  • Perry Jones
  • Ray Graham
  • Reggie Bullock
  • Rex Burkhead
  • Robbie Rouse
  • Silas Redd
  • Spence Wware
  • Stepfan Taylor
  • Stepfon Jefferson
  • Zac Stacy

WRs

  • Aaron Dobson
  • Ace Sanders
  • Andrell Smith
  • Andrew Bodenheim
  • Anthony Amos
  • Brandon Wimberly
  • C.J. Hammon
  • Cameron Saddler
  • Chris Harber
  • Chuck Jacobs
  • Cody Wilson
  • Cobi Hamilton
  • Conner Vernon
  • Cordarelle Patterson
  • Corey Fuller
  • Da’Rick Rogers
  • Darius Johnson
  • Darrin Moore
  • Daymond Patterson
  • DeAndre Hopkins
  • Desmond Scott
  • Devin Street
  • DeVonte Christopher
  • Drew Terrell
  • Dyrell Robert
  • Erik Highsmith
  • Harry Peoples
  • Ivan Delgado
  • Jamal Miles
  • Javone Lawson
  • Jerry Johnson
  • Jheranie Boyd
  • Jordan Matthews
  • Josh Boyce
  • Josh Jarboe
  • Justin Brown
  • Justin Hunter
  • Keenan Allen
  • Keenan Davis
  • Kenny Stills
  • Kevin Dorsey
  • Lanear Sampson
  • La’Rod King
  • Marcus Davis
  • Marcus Sales
  • Mark Harrison
  • Markus Wheaton
  • Marqise Lee
  • Marquess Wilson
  • Marquise Goodwin
  • Martell Moore
  • Matt Austin
  • Mike Shanahan
  • Myles White
  • Perez Ashford
  • Quinton Patton
  • Reggie Dunn
  • Robert Woods
  • Ronnie Williams
  • Roy Roundtree
  • Ryan Swope
  • Shaquelle Evans
  • Skye Dawson
  • Steadman Bailey
  • Tarvarres King
  • Tavon Austin
  • Taylor Stockemer
  • Terrence Williams
  • Theo Riddick
  • Tim Wright
  • Tobias Palmer
  • Tracey Moore
  • Tyson Williams
  • Uzoma Nwachukwu

TEs

  • Andrew Power
  • Ben Cotton
  • Brandon Ford
  • Chris Gragg
  • Colby Prince
  • D.C. Jefferson
  • Dallin Rogers
  • Dion Sims
  • Gavin Escobar
  • Jack Doyle
  • Jordan Reed
  • Joseph Fauria
  • Justice Cunningham
  • Kellen Barlett
  • Levine Toilolo
  • Mychal Rivera
  • Phillip Lutzenkirchen
  • Nick Kasa
  • Ryan Griffin
  • Ryan Otten
  • Tyler Eifert
  • Travis Kelce
  • Travis Tannahill
  • Vance McDonald
  • Zach Ertz
  • Zach Sudfeld

Futures: Central Michigan OT Eric Fisher

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Central Michigan LT Eric Fisher reminds many of 49ers LT Joe Staley, also an alum of the Chippewas and crazy athletic for his position. Photo by >.
Central Michigan LT Eric Fisher reminds many of 49ers LT Joe Staley, also an alum of the Chippewas and crazy athletic for his position. Photo by <1977>.

I spend most of my time at the Senior Bowl practices following skill players around the field. I don’t watch a lot of line play in Mobile. Even so, it was difficult not to hear about Central Michigan left tackle Eric Fisher. The 6-foot-7, 305-pound Fisher was one of the most praised players on the field last week. The most noteworthy praise came from a great source that wasn’t even in Mobile.

Larry Zierlein is a football lifer. He has been an offensive line coach for the Buffalo Bills (2006), Cleveland Browns (2001-2004), and Pittsburgh Steelers (2007-2009). He has also coached the offensive lines of the Houston Cougars (1978-1986), Tulane Green Wave (1988-1990 and 1995-1996), LSU (1993-1994), and the University of Cincinnati (1997-2000).

The reason the last name Zierlein may also be familiar to you is that his son Lance is a sports radio host based in Houston, as well as a blogger for The Sideline View. I had a brief conversation with the younger Zierlein after practice and it was there that he told me what his father thought of Fisher. The elder Zierlein said that he would look at the rest of the tape his son sent him, but it didn’t take him long to realize that Fisher is what coaches call a “six-play” player -– a prospect who you can tell will deliver the goods on a consistent basis as a professional after watching just six plays.

It’s little wonder that a player earning this type of praise from a veteran offensive line coach has been compared to a left tackle like 49ers lineman Joe Staley, who is also from Central Michigan. Staley is known as one of the most athletic linemen in the game, and this high level of athleticism is also Fisher’s calling card. Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

Senior Bowl: Day Two Skill Player Notables

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Day Two of the Senior Bowl was packed with observations from both practices. This morning’s report covers wide receivers, quarterbacks, running backs, and tight ends. There are also some thoughts about drills and the Senior Bowl selection process.

A Senior Bowl tradition worth keeping is a writing roundtable at The Brick Pit. We'll have our own below. BYOB(BQ). Photo by MRak75.
A Senior Bowl tradition worth keeping is a writers roundtable at The Brick Pit. We’ll have our own below. BYOB(BQ). Photo by MRak75.

Plenty of highlights today, most notably a football roundtable with Rotoworld’s Josh Norris, CBS’s Rob Rang, Football Outsiders-Fifth Down contributor Andy Benoit, Yahoo!-Outsider’s alum Doug Farrar, and Footballguys-RSP guest writer Jene Bramel. The conversation was better than the barbeque and the `cue was no slouch. If you aren’t reading these guys, then you probably aren’t looking at this page. If you’re one of the lone exceptions, I highly recommend you start checking out their work.

Quick Thoughts

The more I watch pass protection drills between backs and linebackers the less I’m impressed by the design of these exercises. I have no coaching experience, but it fascinates me that teams don’t employ more diagnostic elements into the drills – especially for the pass protectors. Why not have a 3 (defenders)-on-1 (blocker) drill where the blocker has two or three possible options he has to read before the snap and then get into position after the snap to execute the assignment? At this point, I watch running backs in these traditional drills and often the only thing they really learn is to game the system of the drill rather than develop real pass protection skills.

The Senior Bowl has a tradition of inviting at least two players from a prominent Alabama institution. This year I believe the two players were Auburn back/return specialist Onterrio McCalebb and Alabama eight end Michael Williams. Both players have the skills to be in Mobile this week, but there have been times I thought some of the past players were a gesture of goodwill to attract in-state interest. From a marketing standpoint I get it. However, the changes Phil Savage is instituting with the structure of the week, scouting players, decreasing the turn-down rate of initial invitees, and even the limitations of field access to the general media to give the NFL Network room to roam, indicates that the Senior Bowl wants to increase its national prominence. Right now, having Alabama and Auburn players is often a no-brainer, but Alabama football doesn’t need to be thrown a bone to get here and one day this practice might prevent more deserving talents from participating.

North Squad Receivers

The Raiders dispensed with a few of Day 1’s drills and went right to the 5×10 cone drill versus cornerbacks. Today, the corners gained the upper hand and were far more successful with knocking the receivers outside the five-yard-wide boundary before they reached the second set of cones 10 yards down field. Unlike yesterday, no receiver from the North squad dominated this exercise against press.  However, some of these receivers who struggled in this drill turned the tables in scrimmages or one-on-one matchups.

Markus Wheaton: Wheaton had initial trouble getting on top of the defender with his first two reps in the cone drill. He also was a little rough through his breaks on an out-and-up, but earned separation with his speed up the boundary. Unlike several of the receivers on either squad, Wheaton has a knack for getting position on a defender after his break. He made a nice catch on a slant, got strong position on a hook after his break, and for the second time in two days, displayed good technique on a deep fade where he caught the ball over his shoulder at the boundary. On five-on-sevens, Wheaton engaged in some trash talking with Washington corner Desmond Trufant, who asked the coaches to allow him to cut in line and take on the receiver. Wheaton promptly spanked Trufant on a deep streak up the right sideline with a nice move early in the route to slide outside and then buy position. Mike Glennon made the deep throw, hitting Wheaton in stride.

Marquise Goodwin: Goodwin began the 5×10 cone drill with some success. When he can use his quickness to avoid the reach of a corner, he wins easily. However, the Longhorns receiver progressively allowed defenders to get the best of him with each rep because he didn’t flash the coordination or strength to keep hands off his body. Once the corners jammed Goodwin, he could never shake them from a position over the top and they rode the receiver down field. One thing Wheaton does well that Goodwin has to learn is to duck through contact. Goodwin gets too upright and presents a great target for his opponent. In the scrimmage parts of practice, Goodwin was up and down. He ran a nice curl and then a good out. Speed is sometimes a wonderful eraser of bad technique – he failed to execute a swim move against press but managed to  a sharp turn under the defender and get separation on an out. He still has to learn how to generate good position after his breaks. He was undercut on one target and then got open on a cross only to drop a good pass from Ryan Nassib.

Chris Harper: Harper got tied up on all three of his reps in the 5×10 cone drill. On two of the three reps, he managed to work free after an initial struggle, but the third rep was a complete failure – but he was far from the only receiver to have a failed rep in this morning’s drill. In scrimmage situations or one-on-ones, Harper looks good in the first half of his routes and will fight for the ball after his break, but actual breaks need improvement. I don’t see the speed to win the ball at the end of vertical routes and I’m not as impressed with him as some of my compatriots this week. I don’t know if anyone is comparing him with Juron Criner due to his build, but I’d much rather have Criner.

Aaron Mellette:  The receiver from Elon struggled yesterday in drills, but he improved today. Mellette won his matchups in two of his three reps in this 5×10 cone drill. Although he encountered some resistance that he couldn’t beat immediately on the third rep, he eventually got on top of the defender. It was good to see him make progress from one day to the next. I’m looking forward to seeing if that progress continues on Wednesday. He carried over that ability to gain separation into one-on-one’s, but dropped multiple passes. He managed to get deep at the one of the one-on-one portion. Unlike Brian Quick last year, there’s more football savvy to the way Mellette uses his body.  He also did a good job working back to the football today. Perhaps he has a fighting chance to develop into an NFL contributor. The athleticism is there.

Aaron Dobson: I love Dobson’s ability to adjust to the football with a defender on him, but he still needs to improve his techniques off the line of scrimmage. He had one bad rep, improved upon it with the next turn, and then failed to get separation on the third rep. He’s at his best when he’s a little more physical with the corners. The finesse moves just aren’t working for him right now. In one-on-one’s he got a quick release early and once again did a nice job of adjusting to the football just like he flashed on Monday. He didn’t see a lot of targets on five-on-seven or 11-on-11s today.

Denard Robinson: Robinson continues to wear the yellow, no-contact jersey and today the biggest takeaway was the amount of extra attention the Raiders receiver coach spent on the Michigan athlete’s stride. Robinson dropped several passes today in drills and one-on-ones. Still, there was a reminder of what Robinson could do if he can assimilate the techniques of playing receiver. The rep was an out-and-up versus a corner playing off-man technique. Robinson slipped during his initial out-cut, but his athleticism clicked into gear and he managed to stay upright and turn the corner on the defensive back swooping in for the kill on the initial break. Robinson shot up the sideline and beat the defender handily for a long play. It was an example of how athleticism can erase errors. Just understand that the eraser isn’t nearly as large at the NFL level.

Alec Lemon: Lemon was a late substitute for the North Squad. The Syracuse receiver made a sneaky-good impression today. Despite failing to win any rep in 5×10 cone drills versus the defensive backs, when Lemon was asked to run routes, he turned lemons into…okay, I won’t go there. Lemon demonstrated the savvy to turn a defender’s jam into his favor, consistently getting late separation and making catch after catch in tight quarters. He was smooth, in control, and unfazed by decent coverage.  I still have questions about his athleticism for the NFL level, but I he did a good job today.

South Practice Wide Receivers

Ryan Swope was on the sideline today and the Lions practice was far more equipment-focused for receivers than the Raiders. This was the case when they were here a couple of years ago. Detroit’s drills were different than the last time the team coached here. The staff employed trash cans and blocking dummies to emphasize angles of breaks and control with turns. The coaches used the dummies to emphasis intensity with strikes during the release phase of routes. If I were to compare the staffs, the Raiders focused more on releases during their drills and the Lions emphasized breaks. If I were a receiver at the Senior Bowl I felt the Lions staff had a more comprehensive approach to coaching the receivers on the field.

Quinton Patton: The receiver from Louisiana Tech was one of those cases where I saw more from him in practice than I saw from him in his games. Patton was really quick running through the gauntlet of cans and made tight turns on breaks. He practices fast.  In one-on-one’s Patton made a tough catch on a deep streak up the right sideline, fighting through contact late in the route. The defensive back pushed Patton late and the receiver managed to control his balance enough to get additional separation as he turned back to the ball and made the catch while falling backwards, losing his helmet in the process – one of the most impressive athletic displays among the receivers this week. Patton earned praise form the coaching staff in scrimmages for working back to the football and taking good position on a slant. He also was the on the receiving end of the most impressive throw I saw today (from Tyler Wilson – more on that later), catching a dig in stride.

Cobi Hamilton: Hamilton’s play wasn’t as consistent as Patton’s, but he had noticeable bright moments in practice. He has sharp with his breaks during drills, which earned him praise for improving during his reps. He dropped a dig route in 11-on-11 drills because he waited for the ball to arrive. He failed to extend his arms to the ball a few times on catchable passes and it’s a habit I’d like to see him address. One thing he did well was work back to the quarterback. If he can do a better job extending his arms, he’ll make more plays – especially in the face of contact. Hamilton blew by a corner on one deep target, but he failed to make the proper adjustment to the ball. Hamilton’s NFL athleticism is easy to see, but he needs to address the details of his craft or he’ll tease an NFL team. Think Mohammed Massoquoi or Reggie Brown.

Conner Vernon: The Duke receiver earned praise for his tight turns in drills, especially the angle of his breaks. Although he didn’t achieve strong separation versus man coverage, he was often in good position to make a play on the football. Vernon dropped two passes after encountering contact from tight coverage. He did make a nice catch at the sideline on an out after he was pushed in the chest while airborne to make the reception of an E.J. Manuel pass in 11-on-11 drills. It was too quick to call whether he was inbounds, but the effort was good. Vernon, like Alec Lemon, has to make up for his lack of top-end speed by catching everything in sight versus tight coverage. He didn’t do it today.

Terrance Williams: Williams had an up and down day. During route drills, he’d have a strong rep followed by a weaker one. When he put it all together on a rep, he drew a lot of encouragement from the Lions staff. You can see flashes of a pro receiver when those moments of technique and athleticism converge. It didn’t happen often enough today. Williams failed to get position or come back to the football in scrimmages and dropped a pass after contact from a defender. Like Hamilton, he’s an NFL athlete but not yet an NFL receiver.

Tavarres King: King wasn’t as athletic as Patton, Hamilton, or Williams, but he was more consistent than the last two. I liked his ability to break on the ball and he had a route up the left sideline where he told a good story with a couple of fluid moves to set up his break back to the quarterback at the left sideline in tight coverage. One of the better catches of the day was a dig route where he had to make a strong extension on a pass at shoulder level well away from his body, displaying the ability to “play long.” He had one drop on a low, but catchable throw during five-on-sevens with Landry Jones at quarterback.

North and South Squad Running Backs

Oregon running back Kenjon Barner has his fans here. Doug Farrar and Josh Norris believe he's a better prospect than LaMichael James. Photo by Wade Rackley.
Oregon running back Kenjon Barner has his fans here. Doug Farrar and Josh Norris believe he’s a better prospect than LaMichael James. Photo by Wade Rackley.

The only notable observations I have of North running backs came from pass protection drills. Before I give my takes on each player, I think it’s important to state that diagnosis is a key component of pass protection that these drills did not simulate. Personally, I’d love to see drills that send multiple defenders off an edge or flash three potential blitz types pre snap and force the running back to make a read based on what he sees from the opposition. This would tell me more than many of the drills I see in practices like these. I did see some runs in 11-on-11s from the South squad backs – worth noting, but nothing new from what I’ve seen from them this year in real games.

Kenjon Barner: Quickness abounds with Barner and I liked his ability to get into position and square-up the defender. He doesn’t deliver a punch and this is a key component to good pass protection. Otherwise, the blocker is more passive than active and he’s likely to be controlled rather than control.

Johnathan Franklin: Franklin got into position and stood his ground against pressure coming down hill at a good pace, but like Barner, he didn’t deliver a punch. Unlike the Oregon back, Franklin was just big enough and demonstrated good enough technique to anchor his legs and hold his ground on more of these reps. Once, again, it comes down to Franklin learning to punch.

Mike Gillislee: The Florida runner got duped on swim moves multiple times in running back versus linebacker pass protection drills. He’s quick enough and will punch and turn a defender if he gets good position, but he can telegraph his intentions. In 11-on-11’s he flashed his quick feet, side-stepping penetration up the middle to slip to an open lane off left guard for a nice gain. He caught the ball well on swing passes and he’s a player who should grow into a contributor. The better he gets at pass protection, the bigger the contributor he can be.

Stepfan Taylor: I profiled Taylor before the Senior Bowl, praising his leverage as a runner. He’s always running in a crouched position that gives him an advantage versus impending contact. He’s the most decisive, physical runner on Mobile this week. As much as I like Johnathan Franklin’s smarts and versatility, I think Taylor is the most NFL-ready of the Senior Bowl backs. I’d like to see him do a better job of delivering a punch in pass drills, but he also has the size to anchor against linebackers. It’s important to note that Taylor won’t get away with “catching” defenders in the NFL like he has in drills here. He has to shore up this deficiency.

North Squad Quarterbacks

According to former NC State Head Coach Tom O'Brien, Mike Glennon was the guy burning a hole in the bench behind Russell Wilson. Perhaps if his play involved matches, because he's not setting the Senior Bowl on fire. Photo by Football Schedule.
According to former NC State Head Coach Tom O’Brien, Mike Glennon was the guy burning a hole in the bench behind Russell Wilson. Perhaps if his play involved matches, because he’s not setting the Senior Bowl on fire. Photo by Football Schedule.

None of these quarterbacks pique my interest. I can offer a logical explanation as to why each one will succeed or fail at the next level, but there are far more possibilities why they won’t make a successful transition than I see from recent quarterback classes. The scrimmage drills highlighted more flaws than strengths for this North depth chart.

Zac Dysert: The Miami, Ohio quarterback is the most aggressive of the trio, but also the most reckless. He stares down his primary receiver too often – he threw an interception on an out doing exactly what I described. He’s the only quarterback I’ve seen on either roster attempt a shoulder fake to bait a defender down field. Dysert also floated the ball down field a couple of times on targets where I think more velocity was required for the pass to reach its receiver on-time. One his deep outs also sailed too high with too much air under the ball. I haven’t seen him really drive the ball yet.

Mike Glennon: The N.C. State quarterback got to show off a pretty deep arm on a sideline fade to Markus Wheaton in five-on-seven drills. He also stuck a slant to Chris Harper in traffic that drew an ooh from the crowd in 11-on-11s. This is Glennon’s appeal: big arm and tall frame to see over the defense without getting on his toes. To be nice, he’s everything Russell Wilson isn’t. To be accurate, everything is only one thing: tall.

Ryan Nassib: Optimum Scouting writer Eric Galko asked me what I thought about Nassib. I can see the case for him developing into an NFL starter one day, but I have reservations about his arm strength. I don’t put a ton of weight into arm strength when it comes to evaluating quarterbacks. But if arm strength is missing from a quarterback’s game there have to compensatory factors that mitigate its absence: mobility, great anticipation, or hyper-accuracy. Nassib doesn’t have great arm strength, but I was encouraged to see an opposite hash throw where he drilled the ball to his receiver. However, his deep throws continue to lack either anticipation or distance and velocity. More anticipation would lessen the need for the other two qualities, but at this point he’s forced to try deep throws without this enhanced timing and he isn’t hitting the mark on time. Some of the plays I enjoyed most today where seam routes Nassib dropped into tight ends with excellent placement – even those his tight end’s dropped. He is clearly the best of the North trio of passers and probably the safest quarterback prospect in Mobile. It still doesn’t mean I would touch him in the first three rounds of the draft. I don’t care what the need is for a quarterback, if I have to pay him franchise money or show franchise patience then I’m throwing away two to three years and a shot at a better option. I think he’s a better prospect in theory than on the field.

South Quarterbacks

E.J. Manuel: Physically, he’s everything you want from a quarterback. Fundamentally, he needs work with his throwing motion and decision making. He can make every throw, but he has to learn better judgment. In scrimmages, he wasn’t pressed into a situation where he had to make a throw any more demanding than an out. The game is going to be the time where Manuel likely flashes the best and worst attributes. Stay tuned.

Landry Jones: He threw a nice swing pass to his full back early and got some help on a sliding catch of a crossing route by Cobi Hamilton in five-on-sevens. He was a little too wide for his receiver Tavarres King on an out, but King should have caught the ball inbounds despite the tight margin of error when not necessary. He did hit Terrance Williams on the move and the receiver worked back to the ball for once.

Tyler Wilson: He threw a pass intended for Mychal Rivera that was placed too far inside and the linebacker over top cut off the throw, tipping it, and a teammate made the interception. This was one of a few players where Wilson wasn’t especially sharp but didn’t get much help from his teammates, either. But here’s the kicker:  After this bad play, Wilson comes back and drills Quinton Patton on a dig route in stride with a laser beam while a defender is bearing down on Wilson from an already constricted pocket – the best throw of the week thus far. This aggressive, resilient nature is what separates Wilson from every quarterback in this class – junior or senior. This wasn’t the only good throw of the day from Wilson. He found Vance McDonald on a seam route 15-20 yards down field with good placement to the tight end’s back shoulder. Scott Linehan also praised Wilson for three quick reads in succession ending with a strong decision to hit Conner Vernon on a crossing route. He’s the only quarterback here I’d draft in the first three rounds and feel I got my money’s worth.

Tight Ends

Jack Doyle: The Western Kentucky prospect dropped multiple passes in five-on-seven and 11-on-11s today. There was a sequence where he dropped two in a row. He’s just fast enough to get down the seam and demonstrates just enough fluid athleticism to reach for a throw over his head or to his back shoulder. What he hasn’t done is hold onto the ball after contact or secures the ball on these adjustments. The Ravens Dennis Pitta is a great example of a less than stellar athlete with great ball skills and smarts in zone. Doyle is proving that he lacks the consistency to earn this kind of comparison.

Nick Kasa: The big Colorado tight end has been the best receiver and blocker of the North’s depth chart. He’s just fast enough to work the seam and big enough to get physical when needed. He catches the ball without fanfare and he’ll rumble through the open field for a bit if a defender isn’t disciplined with his tackling technique. He’s not an exciting prospect for the average fan, but as my colleague Josh Norris or Rob Ryan would say, Kasa will have a chance to playing the league for a while.

Michael Williams: Alabama’s tight end can block and he has soft hands. He’s a big, slow earth mover who welcomes contact from defenders in order to create separation as a receiver. As Doug Farrar and Josh Norris said tonight at dinner, he’ll have a long career as a No.3 tight end in the NFL.

Mychal Rivera: The Tennessee tight end is the smallest tight end in Mobile, but he’s one of the most athletic. He makes plays between defenders, extends well for the football and can make a move after the catch to create space. I didn’t get to see much from him as a blocker, but he projects as an H-Back.

Vance McDonald: One of the better catches of the day came from McDonald, who beat a safety with a nice move during his stem and then took the correct angle down field as he bent the route just enough to the outside to gain separation and run under a deep fade towards the pylon, making the catch with his hands over his inside shoulder in full gallop. He’s fluid like a wide receiver and because he’s so well put together as an athlete he doesn’t strike me as a 260-pound player. In terms of players with potential to be a consistent mismatch on every down, McDonald is the only tight end in this game that fits this description.

For more analysis of skill players, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

2013 Senior Bowl: Weigh-in

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Clemson defensive tackle Malliciah Goodman has condor-like (thanks Jene-Bramel), 87.68-inch wingspan. But can he play? Photo by Parker Anderson.
Clemson defensive tackle Malliciah Goodman has condor-like (thanks Jene-Bramel), 87.68-inch wingspan. But can he play? Photo by Parker Anderson.

Unless you like looking at 20 year-old guys in some newer version of Lycra, the Senior Bowl weigh-in is a mash-up of a slave trade auction and the opening prison scene at Shawshank. A majority of these athletes would be told to lose weight if they were at a doctor’s appointment. With the rate of obesity and violence of the game, it’s no wonder NFL players have such short life spans.

It’s a sad sight in many respects. At the same time, you have to have some sort of macabre, gallows humor about this segment of the all-star event. It helps that for most of these athletes playing in the NFL is a dream and the compensation has the potential to be life-changing – if they can manage to keep an agent, accountant, family member, or future ex-spouse from robbing them blind. There I go again. I’d quit while I was only slightly behind, but this is just the intro.

The highlight of the weigh-in this year wasn’t a particular player or group of players. I’ll get to some of those tidbits soon. Weigh-ins just offer another layer of information that can be helpful within the overall analysis of a prospect. What was most telling was Senior Bowl Head Phil Savage giving a five-minute speech at the podium, something I’ve never seen the head of this event do in the past.

Savage has made some noticeable changes to the Senior Bowl event since taking over. The first difference I saw was this summer when he published scouting reports since the beginning of the college season and sent them to media on a weekly basis. The more important changes to the event were unveiled this morning.

The weigh-in was in a much larger room with far more strategic and organized seating than in previous years. Savage had the room split into two sections. The ground level seating near the stage was reserved for NFL personnel. Behind this area was stadium seating for media, although a lot of NFL guys also chose to sit there, too.

Savage’s opening statement covered a number of topics that I think reflect the NFL’s desire to upgrade the Senior Bowl experience and the former Browns GM has acted upon this feedback with a sense of urgency:

  • Structure to Team-Player Interviews: There was no defined interview schedule for teams and players in the past. It’s been a free-for-all and based on Savage’s commentary, I get the feeling teams weren’t happy that they couldn’t get equal time with every player and the lack of structure often put players in a bad light because the chaos made it easy for players to miss appointments. This year Savage created one basic schedule where each day there were would be 36 players scheduled to meet on the first floor of the team hotel. There will be four media rooms and nine players from this group of 36 will be cycled through each room four times so they can meet with every team. The fact that there was no planning like this before just boggles my mind. The remaining 70 players not scheduled are free to meet with teams as arranged informally.
  • Planning Instructions to Teams: Savage recommended teams to give players business cards with times for any interviews they arrange from a conversation. Savage has given the players notebooks to keep business cards. The Browns GM said these notebooks were to help players be held accountable for meeting interview times, but I have to say that it smelled a lot like a smart executive teaching his players to manage upward by expecting some documentation from scouts and team reps who might have contributed equally to the chaos.
  • Future Goal – Increase Player Acceptance Rate: Savage told the audience of NFL teams and media that his team examines 300 players on a Senior Bowl Watch List and visits 25 schools with the help of NFL team personnel men to provide feedback on performances. They narrow this list to 100 players on December 1. This year, 24 players turned down the opportunity to participate in the Senior Bowl. Players like Geno Smith and Montee Ball simply opted not to participate. Guys like Matt Barkley, Travis Kelce and Tyler Eifert had in-season injuries where they opted to continue rehab to maximize their showing at the combine – emphasis on placing higher emphasis on the combine than the value of all-star game practices. Tavon Austin was a late injury scratch. Savage asked the teams to continue helping the Senior Bowl selection committee moving forward because they want to cut the non-attendance rate of first-invitees in half from 24 for 10-12 in 2014. The biggest takeaway is that I think he wants to change the player-agent mentality that the Combine and Pro Day workouts are more important than this all-star environment.

The weigh-in continues to offer small layers of information that some may blow out of proportion, but at the same time might offer important clues as time passes and we gather additional intelligence on these prospects. Here are some highlights from my perspective as a skill positioned-focused analyst of player talent:

Although there are an increasing number of quarterbacks who possess physiques that look more like running backs and wide receivers, many of them – especially the pocket passing quarterbacks  – don’t look like guys you’d imagine capable of handling the most difficult position in sports. There are pro golfers in this era of sport who look far more impressive as athletes than some of these guys. NFL Draft Monster analyst Benjamin Albright compared Mike Glennon’s side profile to a pasty ironing board. Even E.J. Manuel didn’t strike me as an unbelievably conditioned athlete. Again, this is the norm and it goes to show you that quarterback has a large mental component to the craft. I wouldn’t pay too much attention to this commentary about the position.

As for running backs, that’s a little different. Auburn’s Onterrio McCalebb weighed in at 164 pounds. He has the musculature of a 185-pound guy, but that 164-pound result indicates to me that he’s a kick return specialist at best. I’ll be surprised if the South Roster allows him to participate in all the running back drills. McCalebb was listed at 174 before the weigh-in.

Another back on the border is Fresno State’s Robbie Rouse. At 5’5″, 186 pounds, I like the physical dimensions but it’s still rather small for a back. If he were 5’7″ and 198 – or 208 – I’d really be far more intrigued. Nonetheless, he was a good player and I look forward to seeing if he can run big and win over folks this week. I think he has a far better shot than McCalebb. Rouse was listed at 190 pounds before the weigh-in.

The most physically impressive tight end of this group was Rice’s Vance McDonald. Of all the players here, I thought McDonald’s frame was the best proportioned from his arms and chest to his waist and legs. He was a well-muscled, but not overly chiseled 6’4″ 262 pounds with 10-inch hands and an 81.58-inch wingspan, longest of any skill player here and longer than many linemen. McDonald is a versatile player, who often saw time split as a wide receiver on cornerbacks as a part of the Owls.

The largest wingspan at the weigh-in was Clemson defensive lineman Malliciah Goodman. The 6’3″ 272-pound defender has an 87.68-inch wingspan with 10.78-inch hands. He physically reminded me of what I’ve read of novelist Walter Moseley’s character Socrates Fortolow, a convicted felon who did his damage with his bare hands. Goodman’s arms were so long I joked that he could probably tell you if the ground was wet without bending his knees. He was also one of the most impressive physiques in the building.

Jonathan Franklin as a little heavier than listed, but I still would have liked to see him in the 210-pound range. Probably won't happen, but he can still player. Photo by Han Shot First.
Jonathan Franklin as a little heavier than listed, but I still would have liked to see him in the 210-pound range. Probably won’t happen, but he can still player. Photo by Han Shot First.

Other tidbits:

  • I thought UCLA runner Jonathan Franklin was a little light at 201 pounds. I hoped he’d be another 8-10 pounds heavier. I wonder if he has the frame to add more weight. He’s a tough, smart runner and it’s not a major concern, but a layer of information I’ll probably continue to think about as I watch him.
  • Michigan quarterback-turned-wide receiver Denard Robinson has 10-inch hands, which are a half-inch larger than the receiver with the next biggest hands on either roster. However, he also has an injury to his left hand where he cannot extend his pinky. It will be fun to see if that impacts his ability to catch a football. Judging from Torry Holt’s mangled fingers, I doubt it.
  • Think there isn’t a bias against Harvard players? The most audible sound I heard in this auditorium came when fullback Kyle Juszcyzyk took the stage and the announcer listed his school. The 6’3″, 248-pound prospect looked every bit the football player but that collective murmur told me that Harvard still elicits a reaction and I don’t take it as necessarily a positive.

More coming after practice. If you want to see preview from Jene Bramel and me, check out the NY Times Fifth Down.

For additional player analysis heading into the 2013 NFL Draft, here’s my running page of blog pieces here and at Football Outsiders.

Reads Listens Views 1/18/2013

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Life of Pi

This week on Reads Listens Views: Lance Zierlein with a round of “Microwave Scouting”; Ryan Riddle tells you what it was like to participate in a college all-star game; Andy Benoit previews the conference championships; three books I read this month that I think most of you will enjoy; experimental Latin music; and the 2013 RSP is available for pre-payment.

Prepayment for the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio is Available

If you’re one of my readers who, over the years, has convinced me to offer prepayment (thank you), now’s the time. The 2013 RSP is available for $19.95 and will be available for download April (as usual). If you’ve purchased the RSP in the past, you can prepay at this link. You also get the post-draft add-on a week after the draft that includes tiered fantasy rankings, average dynasty draft spot data, team fit analysis, sleepers, UDFAs to watch, and dynasty drafting tips. It’s a second magazine-sized publication that is included with the purchase of the pre-draft publication. Past issues (2006-2012) are available for $9.95 apiece and the RSP donates 10 percent of every sale to Darkness to Light to train communities to recognize and prevent the dynamics of sexual abuse.

Senior Bowl

Once again, I’ll be at the Senior Bowl with Jene Bramel and Cecil Lammey. We’ll be covering practices and media night for the New York Times Fifth Down and Lammey’s ESPN affiliate as well as providing analysis and interviews here at the RSP blog. Stay tuned.

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Reads

Non-Football Reads

Here are three books I’ve read this month and I’d bet most of you will enjoy at least two of them.

  • Life of Pi by Yann Martel – I’m looking forward to seeing the movie, but the book was so good I might read it again before taking in Ang Lee’s vision of this story about an Indian Boy who is stranded on a lifeboat in the Pacific with a zebra, an orangutan, a hyena, and a Bengal tiger. The story is far less fantastical than it appears. However it is fantastic on every level.
  • The Financial Lives of Poets by Jess Walter – This is essentially what I hope to hear doesn’t happen to Chris Brown or Chase Stuart in 15 years when mid-life crisis hits. This novel is a lot of fun and will make you laugh out loud.
  • Killing Johnny Fry by Walter Mosely – Walter Mosely is one of my favorite writers. This is a much different story than his mystery novels – it’s a ‘sexistential novel.’ Not for everyone, but a good read nonetheless.

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Futures: Tennessee Gunslinger Tyler Bray

0 Comments read Players, Quarterback
Bray has the arm talent, but does he have the mental discipline to learn the game at its highest level? Photo by Wade Rackley.
Bray has the arm talent, but does he have the mental discipline to learn the game at its highest level? Photo by Wade Rackley.

We can talk the semantics of perceptions all we want, but there’s a palpable sense that the rookie quarterback class of 2012 has a viable chance to become the best in recent memory. While there are a myriad of things that can happen to alter the promising career paths of Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, and Ryan Tannehill, the 2013 class of prospects is a letdown by comparison. That doesn’t mean it lacks the talent to exceed the lower expectations.

Tennessee quarterback Tyler Bray is a great example. Compared to Wilson, Luck, Griffin, and Tannehill’s games -– which included a level of technical discipline and decision-making maturity uncommon for most rookie quarterbacks –- Bray is a more typical rookie prospect. His flaws are more apparent to the untrained eye.

More so than any quarterback in this 2013 class, Bray fits the gunslinger mold. The Clint Eastwood movie The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly is the appropriate summation of what I see from the Volunteers prospect. Physically, he’s a franchise-caliber talent with the confidence to make big-time NFL throws. He still needs to develop the decision-making maturity and technical discipline that the headliners of the 2012 class displayed in relative abundance. The question is whether he’ll cross the divide between talent and production that all rookies must face.

I don’t want to underestimate the possibility that he’ll mature as a professional, but I have my doubts. On-field performance is the ultimate display of preparation. Right now, there are a lot of loose ends.

Bray’s performance against Georgia: 24-of-45, with 281 yards, two touchdowns, and three picks, was a great display of everything good, bad, and ugly about his quarterbacking. Georgia has an aggressive, 3-4 defense with NFL-caliber athletes like Jarvis Jones, Alec Ogletree, Sean Williams, and Bacarri Rambo. These defenders have the strength, speed, sideline-to-sideline range, and football smarts to project Bray’s current game at the pro level.

I’m probably belaboring the point, but projecting a player’s performance at the NFL level is one of the most important facets of player evaluation. An accurate throw, a wide-open receiver, or a large running lane at the college level is vastly different in the NFL. This is one of the reasons why some have often been too optimistic about running back prospects from Wisconsin in the past 15 years. At the same time, some are all-too-quick to write off poor box score data from a player like Matt Forte, a player who I once watched average less than two yards per carry against a loaded LSU defense, but still delivered one of the most impressive performances I saw from a runner that year.

In my view, the more on-field adversity I can see that tests a player’s physical skill, emotional maturity, and football smarts, the better. Bray gets his share of adversity here. Physically, he’s capable. Conceptually, he’s not prepared. This is where his game falls apart most often. Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Reads Listens Views 1/11/2013

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Combine this lunch at Saucy Q with the New York Times Fifth Down Blog Practice Reports and you almost have the complete Senior Bowl experience at home. Photo by Cecil Lammey.
Combine this lunch at Saucy Q with the New York Times Fifth Down Blog Practice Reports and you almost have the complete Senior Bowl experience at home. Photo by Cecil Lammey.

New RSP Blog Menus

I’m always looking for ways to improve content navigation on this site. Yesterday, I added an NFL Draft menu that features links to all player analysis I featured on this blog, Football Outsiders, and the New York Times Fifth Down. These pieces are on individual pages according to the year I published them: 2011, 2012, and (thus far) 2013. Players are listed by position and alphabetized. Hopefully this makes your life easier.

Prepayment for the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio is Available

If you’re one of my readers who, over the years, has convinced me to offer prepayment (thank you), now’s the time. The 2013 RSP is available for $19.95 and will be available for download April (as usual). You also get the post-draft add-on a week after the draft that includes tiered fantasy rankings, average dynasty draft spot data, team fit analysis, sleepers, UDFAs to watch, and dynasty drafting tips. It’s a second magazine-sized publication that is included with the purchase of the pre-draft publication. Past issues (2006-2012) are available for $9.95 apiece and the RSP donates 10 percent of every sale to Darkness to Light to train communities to recognize and prevent the dynamics of sexual abuse.

Senior Bowl

Once again, I’ll be at the Senior Bowl with Jene Bramel and Cecil Lammey. We’ll be covering practices and media night for the New York Times Fifth Down and Lammey’s ESPN affiliate as well as providing analysis and interviews here. Stay tuned.

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The Boiler Room: Stanford TE Zach Ertz

0 Comments read Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Tight End
Zach Ertz, another Stanford prospect, in the Boiler Room (photo by Han Shot First).
Zach Ertz, another Stanford prospect, in the Boiler Room (photo by Han Shot First).

Stanford tight end Zach Ertz declared for the draft this week. If someone could only see one play that would matter in deciding his draft day fate, which play would I use to highlight that prospect’s skills ? Will this highlight boil down this prospect to his essentials? That’s the thinking behind The Boiler Room – analysis of what makes a player worth drafting by boiling down as much as I can into a single play.

One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect. Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director.

Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round. Today’s prospect is another Stanford player, Zach Ertz. The 6-6, 252-pound tight end is near the top of a class loaded with several strong prospects at the position. What makes Ertz an NFL prospect is his fluid athleticism in an in-line tight end’s body.

This 2nd-and-10 game-winning score with 10:30 left against USC is a highlight you’ll see this spring when an NFL team calls his Ertz’s name at the NFL Draft.

Ertz may have in-line tight end size, but NFL teams will like that they can split him outside.
Ertz may have in-line tight end size, but NFL teams will like that they can split him outside.

This is a 21 personnel, I-formation, 1×1 receiver set. Ertz is the single receiver to the strong side facing a cornerback playing single coverage at the line of scrimmage. If you count the number of defenders in this photo, you’ll see that there is only one safety deep and in the middle of the field. This alignment confirms that Ertz has drawn man coverage. The defender is 6-1, 190-pound corner Torin Harris. Physically, this is a mismatch – especially on routes where Ertz can use his frame to shield the defender from the ball.

The easiest of these routes for Ertz to use his size would be options where he can post-up (fades) or break back to the quarterback (hooks, curls, quick slants, or outs). Where it seems less likely for Ertz to win against Harris, or any top-profile college program cornerback is a deeper route that requires a good story in order to gain separation. This is exactly what Ertz does with this corner-post for a 37-yard touchdown.

The play begins with Harris beginning his back-pedal after the snap with his back to the sideline and spying the pocket.

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The Trojans’ corner doesn’t try to jam Ertz because of the tight end’s size presents an advantage early in the route. Harris opts to stare into the offensive backfield and utilize his quickness to break on the football. The corner has his back to the sideline during this release down field because he hopes to funnel the play inside where he can get help from his teammates – especially if this is a short slant. Shortly after crossing the line of scrimmage, Ertz bends the route inside and looks inside as if he’s about to break on the slant.

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As soon as Harris reacts to Ertz’s inside move, the tight end plants and dips outside  as if he’s heading for the corner. Route running is a lot like telling a suspenseful story: it’s best to be two steps ahead of the audience. Defenders are a lot like an audience. Most members of the audience anticipate the first move or change in the plot of a story. Not as many anticipate the second twist in the plot line so most of them react as if this is the true path of the story. It is this reaction where they tend to make the strongest commitment to compensate for anticipating the first move, but not the second.

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To generate this reaction the route runner must display a strong attention to detail, precision with his footwork, and the quickness and agility to execute with enough fluidity to manipulate the defender. Ertz demonstrates each of these facets of route running on this play, drawing Harris out of position, and forcing the corner to react in the moment.

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Ertz’s break to the outside forces Harris to react by turning outside and continuing his back pedal. If it wasn’t clear from the beginning of the route that the corner was playing the ball and not the man, this still reinforces it. Harris continues to the pocket while reacting to Ertz’s second break. Meanwhile, Ertz is setting up his third move, a break to the post while Harris continues to react to the potential corner route. The fact that Ertz’s position is behind and shaded to the corner’s outside shoulder keeps the tight end just out of Harris’ peripheral vision. Despite the fact that Ertz is not within site of the corner at this moment, he still sells the outside break with his head.

This detail is important because he doesn’t know what the exactly position or sight line the corner will have before he executes the route and failing to sell even the slightest detail can tip off a defender. Further, there is always the chance that the safety doesn’t buy what Ertz is selling and works to the middle of the field early enough to foil the play.

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By the time Ertz breaks inside, Harris has committed enough to the post route that it will require a bad throw for the corner to recover and defend the pass. The direction of the knees and hips tell the story. In this case, Harris falls for the bait and the result is Ertz gaining at least three steps of separation.

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If you outlined Harris and pasted that outline in this space between him and Ertz, there would be enough room for three outlines. Ertz turns towards the throw and gets his head around and his hands up. A route with this detail of movement to set up the break requires the receiver to make a late adjustment to track the football on a pass that should be arriving with some heat.

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Everything about Ertz’s form at this point is perfect: His back is to the defender thanks to his work to set up the break; his arms are extended to the first available point to catch the pass; and his hands are in position to make the catch with his palms facing the ball and his fingers up and splayed inward. When you see a receiver catch the ball close to his body in this situation it’s often because he lacks confidence in his ability to catch the ball with his hands or he doesn’t have mastery of knowing the correct hand position to use to attack a ball that is between belt and chest level. This pass is a little higher than that, but still in an area where I see receivers have difficulty with the position of their hands.

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Within a step of catching the ball, Ertz does a good job of securing the pass and looking to the safety approaching from the inside. The plant and dip under the defender is another demonstration of quick thinking and agility.

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As Ertz finishes planting the outside foot and turning his hips inside, he also lowers his pads in anticipation of contact and has both hands on the football. These are all good reactions. The only thing Ertz doesn’t do is get the ball closer to his body in anticipation of a hit. Fortunately for the Stanford tight end, his move is good enough to avoid the safety and get the ball tucked firmly into his inside arm as he breaks from the outside pursuit.

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The to the middle of the field not only helps him avoid the safety, but it also puts Ertz’s teammate in position to block Harris. All that is left between Ertz and the end zone is the pursuit behind him.

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Remember that Ertz just executed a sharp change of direction that would slow the gait of any player. As No.16 closes on Ertz, I like how the tight end demonstrates the awareness to dive for the goal line. It illustrates that Ertz saw the backside pursuit as he made this cut inside the safety and that he has skill at processing what to do as a ball carrier in the open field. Within a few steps he extends the ball towards the end zone, just ahead of the defender attempting to punch the ball loose.

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Ertz anticipates the defender, dives for the goal line, and lands in the end zone maintaining control of the football. It’s the culmination of a play that illustrates why a defender better not take this big man for granted. Harris playing the ball over the man did just that and he paid the price.

Ertz is a lot like Bengals receiver Jermaine Gresham, a big, physical, and agile player capable of developing into an NFL starter and intermediate threat with big-play ability. What this play doesn’t show you represents a lot of what he’ll need to improve: using his hands at the line of scrimmage and making receptions after contact from a defender. If he can improve his game, I think he can develop into a performer with Heath Miller’s upside. I still have more to study so don’t take the Miller comparison as anything more than a distant summit of Ertz’s potential. Still, the view from this level is promising.

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

The Boiler Room: RB Stepfan Taylor, Stanford

0 Comments read Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Running Back
Kick off my Boiler Room series is Rose Bowl MVP Stepfan Taylor (photo by Han Shot First)>
Kicking off my Boiler Room series is 2013 Rose Bowl MVP Stepfan Taylor (photo by Han Shot First)>

One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect. I will often study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. That’s the thinking behind The Boiler Room – analysis of what makes a player worth drafting by boiling down as much as I can into a single play. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

[People] don’t like to break a player down, look at his particulars. That involves details. Most people get bored with details. Because in order to look at the details, you have to love what you’re doing, and you have to be highly motivated. I loved playing football. I relished the details.

– Jim Brown

Today’s prospect is Stanford running back Stepfan Taylor, who is the Cardinals’ all-time leading rusher. He’s a versatile power back and while I’m still refining my stylistic comparison, Leroy Hoard comes to mind. This 1st-and-15 screen pass for a 23-yard touchdown with 0:36 in the third quarter against USC to force a 14-14 tie is a big reason why. It’s also a play I would insert at the top of Taylor’s highlight reel for a personnel director’s viewing because there are a lot of details to mine from this single play.

This screen begins from 3×1 receiver, shotgun formation.

The two guards and center are the three linemen who will lead Taylor on this screen while the tackles pass block the edges.
The two guards and center are the three linemen who will lead Taylor on this screen while the tackles pass block the edges.

Taylor helps set up this screen to the right flat by approaching the right guard at the line of scrimmage as if he intends to pass protect.

I like that Taylor is nearly flat-footed and still enough to sell the idea he's in pass-protection mode.
I like that Taylor is nearly flat-footed and still enough to sell the idea he’s in pass-protection mode.

As soon as the edge rusher works inside the tackle, Taylor releases inside the defender and turns to the right flat. Many running backs don’t execute the release with precision, but Taylor’s break is as sharp as a receiver skilled at running a cross in a high-traffic area. Look at Taylor’s position as he crosses the right hash and it’s easy to see he executed a sharp, tight turn to set a position where his blockers can work down field and at the same time executing this tight turn outside the right tackle to create an obstacle between himself and any backside pursuit.

Note Taylor already has his head around before the quarterback is even halfway through his release.
Taylor’s sharp turn also means the RT is in position to pick up the backside pursuit if needed.

Note Taylor already has his head around before the quarterback is even halfway through his release. One of the more frequent mistakes seen on screen plays is a running back who doesn’t turn his head to the quarterback and get his hands in position to catch the ball as he’s executing his break. This precision and detail is going to be something that endears him to coaches if it translates to his pro career. Odds are likely that it will.

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Taylor extends his hands to the football and looks the pass into his body before turning up field. At the same time it’s a fluid catch and turn so he can be in position to assess his blockers and what’s ahead.

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At this point, Taylor approaches this run after the catch with similar concepts a runner uses at the line of scrimmage by pressing a hole and cutting back.

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Taylor doesn’t have to work this far to the numbers, but as he turned up field two photos prior, he saw in an instant that pressing the outside and cutting back to the inside accomplishes multiple things. First it gives his right guard room to seal the outside pursuit directly ahead. The left guard at the 15 benefits from this press and cutback because it widens the defender ahead of him and gives the guard an opportunity to seal the outside while the center works to the inside. If Taylor succeeds with this press and cutback, he will create a lane where he just needs to outrun the backside pursuit through a large crease. Once again, this is a sign of a runner who understands how to use his blockers and is processing information quickly to set up a more sophisticated plan of attack.

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Taylor’s press comes dangerously close to a point where he could get his legs chopped at the line of scrimmage for a minimal gain, but the runner trusts his feet to get him through trash. The next frame illustrates the kind of balance and footwork that Taylor has to make this play work. The red circles below are Taylor’s feet as he avoids the defender’s tackle attempt.

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Despite splitting his feet apart at a wide angel while airborne, Taylor lands without stumbling and maintains his stride.
Despite splitting his feet apart at a wide angel while airborne, Taylor lands without stumbling and maintains his stride.

The balance to avoid the defender he left at the line of scrimmage also means Taylor can set up the blocks ahead with another press and cut back, widening the lane once again and trusting his footwork to get him through.

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Check out the position of Taylor’s body as he executes this press outside and prepares for the cutback. His hips are bent so his backside is sticking out enough to provide a low center of gravity that will aid Taylor’s change of direction. The runner’s shoulders are leaning forward and his eyes are up. This is a balanced running form capable of breaking or eluding tackles. I don’t see this form in the open field as often as you’d think.

Compare the photo above with the one below and you’ll understand just how much this knee and hip flexibility and shoulder angle aids his change of direction. The photo above is taken just before Taylor plants his right foot into the turf to change direction to cut inside his left tackle’s block. The photo below is take just two steps later.

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Look how tight Taylor is to the left guard. His stride and body position to make this controlled cut is the reason. It’s a sharp change of direction but with enough room and speed to lead almost a yard of space between Taylor and the backside pursuit. A lot of backs either lack the discipline or body control to make this subtle of a move – especially backs 215 pounds and up. I also like how Taylor’s pad level remains low, giving him the chance to cut through a glancing blow if necessary. Running with abandon is fun to watch, but that phrase is more about intensity and aggression. Control is still an important facet of successful ball carrying.

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The only recourse the backside pursuit has at this point is to dive for Taylor’s ankles. Before analyzing this screen pass and run at this level of detail, it’s easy to imagine that Taylor nearly gets caught because he lacks speed. After viewing his form and set up of blocks, I think it’s more accurate to conclude that Taylor eliminates this defender’s best angle. Faster backs lacking Taylor’s control would have succumbed to this back side angle a couple of yards earlier.

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Taylor runs through the wrap to his ankles, again his stride and low center of gravity generated partially by his stride helps, and he now has another press and cut back scenario ahead. This time he continues inside another step before breaking outside to split the blocks of his tight end and receiver to reach the end zone.

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Six.
Six.

The subtlety of this play highlights the subtlety and attention to detail of Taylor’s game. If I were seeking a running back, I’d want one who understands how to create and eliminate angles as a blocker, receiver, and runner. Taylor can do all three. I think he’s one of the safer bets for a team seeking a contributor.

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.