Posts tagged 2013 RB Prospects

The Boiler Room: RB Stepfan Taylor, Stanford

Kick off my Boiler Room series is Rose Bowl MVP Stepfan Taylor (photo by Han Shot First)>
Kicking off my Boiler Room series is 2013 Rose Bowl MVP Stepfan Taylor (photo by Han Shot First)>

One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect. I will often study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. That’s the thinking behind The Boiler Room – analysis of what makes a player worth drafting by boiling down as much as I can into a single play. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

[People] don’t like to break a player down, look at his particulars. That involves details. Most people get bored with details. Because in order to look at the details, you have to love what you’re doing, and you have to be highly motivated. I loved playing football. I relished the details.

– Jim Brown

Today’s prospect is Stanford running back Stepfan Taylor, who is the Cardinals’ all-time leading rusher. He’s a versatile power back and while I’m still refining my stylistic comparison, Leroy Hoard comes to mind. This 1st-and-15 screen pass for a 23-yard touchdown with 0:36 in the third quarter against USC to force a 14-14 tie is a big reason why. It’s also a play I would insert at the top of Taylor’s highlight reel for a personnel director’s viewing because there are a lot of details to mine from this single play.

This screen begins from 3×1 receiver, shotgun formation.

The two guards and center are the three linemen who will lead Taylor on this screen while the tackles pass block the edges.
The two guards and center are the three linemen who will lead Taylor on this screen while the tackles pass block the edges.

Taylor helps set up this screen to the right flat by approaching the right guard at the line of scrimmage as if he intends to pass protect.

I like that Taylor is nearly flat-footed and still enough to sell the idea he's in pass-protection mode.
I like that Taylor is nearly flat-footed and still enough to sell the idea he’s in pass-protection mode.

As soon as the edge rusher works inside the tackle, Taylor releases inside the defender and turns to the right flat. Many running backs don’t execute the release with precision, but Taylor’s break is as sharp as a receiver skilled at running a cross in a high-traffic area. Look at Taylor’s position as he crosses the right hash and it’s easy to see he executed a sharp, tight turn to set a position where his blockers can work down field and at the same time executing this tight turn outside the right tackle to create an obstacle between himself and any backside pursuit.

Note Taylor already has his head around before the quarterback is even halfway through his release.
Taylor’s sharp turn also means the RT is in position to pick up the backside pursuit if needed.

Note Taylor already has his head around before the quarterback is even halfway through his release. One of the more frequent mistakes seen on screen plays is a running back who doesn’t turn his head to the quarterback and get his hands in position to catch the ball as he’s executing his break. This precision and detail is going to be something that endears him to coaches if it translates to his pro career. Odds are likely that it will.

TaylorA4
Taylor extends his hands to the football and looks the pass into his body before turning up field. At the same time it’s a fluid catch and turn so he can be in position to assess his blockers and what’s ahead.

Taylor A5

At this point, Taylor approaches this run after the catch with similar concepts a runner uses at the line of scrimmage by pressing a hole and cutting back.

TaylorA6

Taylor doesn’t have to work this far to the numbers, but as he turned up field two photos prior, he saw in an instant that pressing the outside and cutting back to the inside accomplishes multiple things. First it gives his right guard room to seal the outside pursuit directly ahead. The left guard at the 15 benefits from this press and cutback because it widens the defender ahead of him and gives the guard an opportunity to seal the outside while the center works to the inside. If Taylor succeeds with this press and cutback, he will create a lane where he just needs to outrun the backside pursuit through a large crease. Once again, this is a sign of a runner who understands how to use his blockers and is processing information quickly to set up a more sophisticated plan of attack.

TaylorA7

Taylor’s press comes dangerously close to a point where he could get his legs chopped at the line of scrimmage for a minimal gain, but the runner trusts his feet to get him through trash. The next frame illustrates the kind of balance and footwork that Taylor has to make this play work. The red circles below are Taylor’s feet as he avoids the defender’s tackle attempt.

TaylorA8

Despite splitting his feet apart at a wide angel while airborne, Taylor lands without stumbling and maintains his stride.
Despite splitting his feet apart at a wide angel while airborne, Taylor lands without stumbling and maintains his stride.

The balance to avoid the defender he left at the line of scrimmage also means Taylor can set up the blocks ahead with another press and cut back, widening the lane once again and trusting his footwork to get him through.

TaylorA10

Check out the position of Taylor’s body as he executes this press outside and prepares for the cutback. His hips are bent so his backside is sticking out enough to provide a low center of gravity that will aid Taylor’s change of direction. The runner’s shoulders are leaning forward and his eyes are up. This is a balanced running form capable of breaking or eluding tackles. I don’t see this form in the open field as often as you’d think.

Compare the photo above with the one below and you’ll understand just how much this knee and hip flexibility and shoulder angle aids his change of direction. The photo above is taken just before Taylor plants his right foot into the turf to change direction to cut inside his left tackle’s block. The photo below is take just two steps later.

TaylorA11

Look how tight Taylor is to the left guard. His stride and body position to make this controlled cut is the reason. It’s a sharp change of direction but with enough room and speed to lead almost a yard of space between Taylor and the backside pursuit. A lot of backs either lack the discipline or body control to make this subtle of a move – especially backs 215 pounds and up. I also like how Taylor’s pad level remains low, giving him the chance to cut through a glancing blow if necessary. Running with abandon is fun to watch, but that phrase is more about intensity and aggression. Control is still an important facet of successful ball carrying.

TaylorA12

The only recourse the backside pursuit has at this point is to dive for Taylor’s ankles. Before analyzing this screen pass and run at this level of detail, it’s easy to imagine that Taylor nearly gets caught because he lacks speed. After viewing his form and set up of blocks, I think it’s more accurate to conclude that Taylor eliminates this defender’s best angle. Faster backs lacking Taylor’s control would have succumbed to this back side angle a couple of yards earlier.

TaylorA13

Taylor runs through the wrap to his ankles, again his stride and low center of gravity generated partially by his stride helps, and he now has another press and cut back scenario ahead. This time he continues inside another step before breaking outside to split the blocks of his tight end and receiver to reach the end zone.

TaylorA14

Six.
Six.

The subtlety of this play highlights the subtlety and attention to detail of Taylor’s game. If I were seeking a running back, I’d want one who understands how to create and eliminate angles as a blocker, receiver, and runner. Taylor can do all three. I think he’s one of the safer bets for a team seeking a contributor.

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Chicken or Egg: RB Stefphon Jefferson or Nevada Scheme?

The chicken or egg argument in football is between the individual and the team. One example is junior RB Stepfon Jefferson or Nevada's offensive scheme (artwork by Banksy, photo by Jan Slangen).
The chicken or egg argument in football is between the individual and the team. One example is junior RB Stefphon Jefferson or Nevada’s offensive scheme (Artwork by Banksy. Photo by Jan Slangen).

Nevada running back Stefphon Jefferson declared for the NFL Draft this week. Looking at the numbers, it’s hard to blame him. Although he only had 73 carries as a freshman and sophomore, his junior year blew away all expectations:

  •  375 carries and 397 total touches
  • 5.0 yards-per-carry average
  • 1883 yards rushing
  • 2053 yards from scrimmage
  • 25 total touchdowns

Jefferson only had one game in this year with fewer than 20 carries and seven of those contests were 30-carry workloads. Listed at 5-11, 210 pounds, the junior runner has the build to add another 5-10 pounds, which would make him a prospect with suitable dimensions to become a potential lead back or feature runner if going strictly by these numbers.

It’s also worth noting that Jefferson is a patient runner.  He does a good job of pressing a hole and cutting back to the open lane. I’m impressed with how he allows his blocks to develop and hits the hole at a good angle – often doing so with a decisive burst. The problem is that behind all of these positive details is a runner who might be more of a product of this Nevada Wolfpack scheme. In the right NFL system, Jefferson has enough positives to develop into a contributor. The key phrase is “the right NFL system,” because in the wrong one, he might not make the team.

There are several issues that I’ll address in the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio, but the most glaring one is something that I first hoped were flashes of maturity rather than a deficiency in his game. Most backs I see in the college game tend to use their speed, quickness, and agility to bounce runs outside or attempt risky cutbacks. I’ve coined this tendency as Taking It to The Corner StoreThis syndrome can be fatal for a running back’s career, but it generally has a strong recovery rate. Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, and C.J. Spiller recovered nicely. The last known career casualty has been Laurence Maroney.

It’s unusual when a player has the opposite problem and doesn’t possess the cutback skills to bounce runs away from penetration or take advantage of larger cutback lanes to the opposite guard or tackle. So when I first saw Jefferson eschew a cutback lane and lower his head into the line of scrimmage to get what was available ahead, I wanted to believe he was taking a wiser course of action that I criticize many back for ignoring. Unless I see something different in the next few months, this is not the case.

Jefferson lacks the ability to make sharp, explosive, lateral cuts. Like Darren McFadden, he’s more of a run bender than a slasher. McFadden’s ability to bend runs at top speed makes him an exceptional case among NFL runners, because few straight-ahead, speed runners succeed in this era of pro football without pro-caliber, NFL lateral agility. Based on what I have seen from Jefferson, I don’t see a back with McFadden’s speed.

Here are six runs of Jefferson’s from Nevada’s bowl game against Arizona that illustrate why Chris Ault’s pistol attack complements Jefferson’s style while masking weaknesses that could limit the runner’s appeal in the NFL Draft. These runs are representative of the 30-plus attempts I saw from Jefferson against the Wildcats: carries through large holes or attempts where Jefferson could bend a run towards a secondary crease after passing through a large primary hole.

Big Holes, Big Plays

Ault’s run system isn’t purely a gap or zone scheme. For the uninitiated, a gap (or angle blocking) scheme is a ground attack where lineman pull or trap to a specific spot and the runner is suppose to run to that one area of the line and use his strength and speed to get whatever he can through the crease that the line creates. A zone scheme allows a runner to have several options to enter the line of scrimmage and the blocking tends to be slanting in a direction without the pulling of linemen.

Ault uses both methods in his offense and Jefferson’s vision is good enough that he produces well with both styles of plays. However, his style works best with gap schemes because he’s more of a straight-line runner who likes to hit the hole hard and fast. Here’s a 14-yard touchdown with 6:00 in the half that is a great angle blocking play from a 12 personnel pistol set with an unbalanced line and twin receivers on the strong side.

This is one of my favorite pistol runs. because of the alignment of the wing back.

This is one of my favorite pistol runs. because of the alignment of the wing back. Ault has designed this offense so the play can be a gap play, a zone play, a play action pass, or a straight pass. There’s a ton of versatility with this alignment and the added flavor of the receiver “ghosting” behind the runner to add the threat of the end around is just another cool wrinkle. What I love about this as a gap play is that most defenses are use to the concept of a guard pulling around center and a fullback entering the hole, but the placement and use of the wing back is just different enough to make it harder for a defender to see what’s coming at him.

Jefferson A2

Although the wing back is essentially a fullback and not far from being an offset blocker in an I formation, the angle is just wide enough that when he pulls across the formation the defender can choose the wrong gap or run right through the tunnel and mistake that light on the other side as something less painful than a 255-pound freight train. The linebacker in orange considers the gap outside the puling guard before opting for the gap to the guard’s inside shoulder. Does he see the pulling wing back? If he does, it’s still a tough angle to get good position to hit and shed that block to the ball carrier. Here’s the red zone angle of the play.

Endzone view from No. 38's perspective.
Endzone view from No. 38’s perspective.
No.38 takes one step outside to cover the gap outside left guard.
No.38 takes one step outside to cover the gap outside left guard.
No.38 is outside the pulling guard and waiting on the runner's approach, but does he really see what's lurking around the corner? Why do I feel like I'm diagramming a shark attack? I like it.
No.38 is outside the pulling guard and waiting on the runner’s approach, but does he really see what’s lurking around the corner? Why do I feel like I’m diagramming a shark attack? Worse yet, I like it.
Once the LB hops back to the inside because of his read of the RB, he's looking headlong into that 255 lb. freight train.
Once the LB hops back to the inside because of his read of the RB, he’s looking headlong into that 255 lb. freight train.
This isn't a hole, it's a large force field.
This isn’t a hole, it’s a large force field.

Jefferson hits this small canyon and goes untouched for the 14 yards to the end zone. Crazy as it sounds, this is one of the smaller craters that the Nevada line blasts in this contest.

Maturity or Agility Lacking?

Here is a 1st-and-10 with 4:22 in the half from a weak side trips, 11 personnel pistol formation. This run appears to be a zone play to left guard with a zone read for the quarterback to keep it around right end according to the position that the defensive end takes.

Jefferson B1

Jefferson takes the exchange and begins to dip the play to the inside. It’s at this point below where I think there are several ways to read and react to this play.

Jefferson B2

The elite athlete with great instincts to take risks that coaches at first find themselves on the sidelines screaming “No, no, no. . .yes, yes, YES!!!” is going to anticipate this opening with the yellow arrow before the snap or early after the play begins. He’ll also have the speed and agility to create a lane to work around the tight end and burst into the secondary for a long gain. This is a rarity even among terrific prospects because on the surface it looks like the decision of a really bad player. However the greats often break fundamental rules and get away with it due to special athleticism or anticipation.

The most common decision is the pink arrow to left end. This is where most top athletes with risk-taking, corner store tendencies will try to bounce a run once they work to left guard and don’t see a crease. This is the decision they have to curb when they reach the NFL because the percent chance they break it is much lower than the success rate in college football.

It’s the blue line that is the most sensible, conservative choice. Find the soft spot in the line, lower the pads, and bull through it. Keep the offense on schedule, don’t risk the loss of yardage, and you might possibly break through the line for a big play. In other words, let the defense make the mistake rather than you making the mistake.

Jefferson B3

This is exactly what Jefferson does. He approaches the soft spot, puts his head down, gets two yards untouched, and then bulls against the backs of his linemen for another four as they push the pile together for a total of six. It’s a mature play and the positive of this choice is that Jefferson can develop into the type of NFL back that will get what his line gives him. It makes him a potentially reliable option. A zone scheme running game will want a more creative running back in situations other than this play where the runner has more room to operate. Let’s look at a play or two that calls for more agility.

Failed Cutback

Here is a two-yard gain on a 1st-and-10 sweep to the strong side of an unbalanced line and twin strong side receivers with 0:58 in the first quarter. The guards pull to the strong side of this pistol formation run and Jefferson either bounces the run outside or, more frequently, works between the pulling guards.

 Jefferson C1

The two pulling guards opt to double team the penetration up the middle.
The two pulling guards opt to double team the penetration up the middle.

As Jefferson rounds the corner he has a couple of lanes to chose from. What I see from this play as it progresses is a back with the vision necessary to create, but he lacks the physical agility to execute what he sees happening before him. The runner spots the unblocked middle linebacker early in this play. He’s a player a runner behind two pulling guards is expected to see blocked by one of them, but due to penetration this won’t be the case. Jefferson opts to stretch the play a little more to the outside, but remains patient about his decision.

Jefferson C3

Jefferson has a few decisions: hit the hole with the middle linebacker, split the tight end and receiver’s blocks at the hash, or work outside the hash to the flat. The first open is a minimal gain at best without some creative thinking. The second option is inadvisable because the defender’s helmet is position in a place where there’s no way Jefferson will split these defenders and get  positive yards. The third option require great burst because that same defender on the tight end is in position to work through the block and tackle the runner trying to bounce it outside – and likely for a loss.

Jefferson C4

This screen shot above is a big reason why I believe Jefferson has the vision, but lacks the physical skills to execute like an elite runner. The Nevada runner opts to take another step or two outside to press the linebacker outside and based on his footwork above, cut behind his inside blocker and force that middle linebacker to overrun his angle. It’s a great idea, but it takes top-flight agility to execute. Matt Forte could do it. Jamaal Charles? No problem. LeSean McCoy could probably add a second move in succession that would increase AA battery sales that day in the Philadephia metropolitan area due to the insane amount of rewinding going on in Eagles fan households.

Unfortunately, Jefferson can’t. Where his feet are position in the shot above is where his momentum must stop and change direction with no wasted movement. If he can do it, he cuts behind the blocker to his left. If not, he skids into the oncoming defenders. The result below shows the skid in progress.

The yellow circle is where Jefferson was and where he needed to be to make this cutback.
The yellow circle is where Jefferson was and where he needed to be to make this cutback.

The outcome of the play is Jefferson getting hit head-on and knocked backwards before he can change direction. He had to gear down to make this cut back. This is where a jump cut or lateral plant and sharp change of direction makes a huge difference. There were other plays in this game where I’ve seen Jefferson break though a large hole at the line of scrimmage, see a defender making his way into the lane and the runner finding a much smaller secondary lane between two linemen and squeeze through to transform a four-yard play into an eight-yard play. Good vision, but the play didn’t require a sharp cutback.

This one did, and it’s representative of other plays where he misses a chance to execute a cut back or opt to barrel ahead and lower the pads for a minimal gain because he knows the cutback isn’t a part of his skill set. These aren’t the risky type of cutbacks, either. Jefferson has some real positives to his game, but his physical creativity doesn’t match what he sees.

As a straight-line runner with burst, decisiveness, and patience, he reminds me of the best of what I use to see from a back like Michael Bennett, the former Wisconsin star and Vikings starter. Jefferson lacks Bennett’s top-end speed, which is also why I have doubts the the Nevada back may struggle to find a place in the NFL.

Jefferson’s 2012 production makes it a good time for him to declare for the NFL Draft, because it’s unlikely he repeats those numbers as a senior. However, his lack of agility is an indicator that he may have benefited more from great team execution of a good scheme. Throw in his difficulties with pass protection and I’ll be surprised if he has smooth and immediate transition to an NFL lineup.

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Flashes: RB Benny Cunningham, MTSU

MTSU RB Benny Cunningham has some major obstacles to earn a tryout with an NFL team this summer. If healthy and able to demonstrate the short-area quickness he flashed against Georgia Tech this fall, he could be a good fit behind Alfred Morris in the Redskins backfield. Photo by Keith Allison.
MTSU RB Benny Cunningham has some major obstacles to earn a tryout with an NFL team this summer. If healthy and able to demonstrate the short-area quickness he flashed against Georgia Tech this fall, he could be a good fit behind Alfred Morris in the Redskins backfield. Photo by Keith Allison.

This installment of Flashes profiles the play of Middle Tennessee State University runner Benny Cunningham. The senior, who was on the Doak Walker Award Watch List this summer, had a 217-yard, 5-touchdown afternoon against Georgia Tech in September. By November, he was out for the season with a torn patella tendon. what quality did he flash against the Yellow Jackets that makes Cunningham worth monitoring as a street free agent? Keep reading . . .

Cunningham is a 5-10, 210-pound, power runner who reminds me of a mix between Stephen Davis and Fred Lane. Not as big as Davis, but not as shifty as Lane. Power and pad level are the best aspects of Cunningham’s game as a runner. He attacks defenders and knows how to win the battle for extra yards.  This touchdown run against Louisiana-Monroe where he bulls over the middle linebacker at the six yard line and then bulldozes a second defender the remaining five yards is a great example.

Cunningham tore his patella tendon during his senior year, but was still named a second-team All-Sun Belt runner. He has the physical dimensions one would want to see from a running back, and his 21-carry, 217-yard, 5-touchdown performance against Georgia Tech in late September kept him on the NFL radar before his season-ending injury.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Rw5n3iXTLS0]

This injury will likely make Cunningham a street free agent looking for a tryout.  Fortunately, Middle Tennessee State likes Cunningham enough that they moved its Pro Day to as late a date as possible to give its runner more time to heal before a workout.

When I watched Cunningham in this Georgia Tech game, I wanted to see evidence of short-area quickness against a bigger-name team. The Yellow Jackets would likely get penetration at the line of scrimmage that could model some of the situations he’d see against professionals. Although I didn’t see great lateral agility from Cunningham in this game, there was one play in particular where Cunningham flashed it.

The situation was a 1st-and-15 with 10:33 in the third quarter from a 2×2 receiver, pistol set.

This play is a zone run to the left, but the Tech defensive tackle and backside end get strong penetration to the backfield in addition to penetration from the left side of the offensive line to force Cunningham to change direction in the backfield.
This play is a zone run to the left, but the Tech defensive tackle and backside end get strong penetration to the backfield in addition to penetration from the left side of the offensive line to force Cunningham to change direction in the backfield.

Cunningham feels the penetration coming across the face of his backside linemen and begins his cutback with a plant of his outside leg. This first cut will get him to the edge.

Cunningham runs with his eyes on this play. You can see him looking to the backside defenders as he begins his initial cutback.
Cunningham runs with his eyes on this play. You can see him looking to the backside defenders as he begins his initial cutback.

Most college runners are good enough to make one good cut and get down hill. That’s just a basic staple of running the football. However, it’s that second cut to transition from a bounce outside back to a down hill run that will be important for Cunningham to execute at the professional level. If he can’t, he’s going to see enough attempts for three- and four-yard losses that keep him from ever seeing an NFL lineup.

Cunningham eludes the defensive end with his first cut, but not has to make a lateral cut in succession with that first move if he wants to get down field on the linebacker in great position to cut off the flat.
Cunningham eludes the defensive end with his first cut, but not has to make a lateral cut in succession with that first move if he wants to get down field on the linebacker in great position to cut off the flat.

This is the kind of direction change that runners can refine from doing drills with rope ladders and cones. It doesn’t mean every runner can get quick enough to execute moves on top of moves in the NFL, but when a player demonstrates he can do so in a game it signals that he has good feet without thinking about it. This second cut above is one of those instances. It gets Cunningham in a position where he’s now heading down hill on the outside linebacker.

The OLB heads straight into Cunningham's wheel house.
The OLB makes a beeline into Cunningham’s wheel house.

Once Cunningham gets his pads square, he does what he does best: get low, drive those muscular thighs forward and attack the defender who was in position to catch a ride on the BC Econoline rather than hit MTSU’s power back.

Two yards later, Cunningham is dragging the OLB across the line of scrimmage and picking up momentum.
Two yards later, Cunningham is dragging the OLB across the line of scrimmage and picking up momentum.

Cunningham gains four yards on this play-landing at the tip of this arrow after dragging his opponent five yards after initial contact. It’s not the flashiest run of the day. It’s not the most meaningful, either. But to someone looking for NFL-caliber skills, this play models some of the things Cunningham will have to do if he wants any chance of success at the next level.

It’s worth noting that this 2×2 pistol was the primary running formation that MSTU used to feature Cunningham. Sometimes the receivers were split, other times they were stacked. The pistol look and Cunningham’s dimensions remind me somewhat Alfred Morris and the Redskins running game. If Cunningham can return to complete health and do more than just “flash” lateral agility and short-area quickness, he could be a nice backup for Morris.

RB-OL Collisions: Reading the Road with Marcus Lattimore

[youtube=http://youtu.be/B22ckUxr0D8]

A criticism I read about a few college running backs this week was the tendency for some of them to run up the back of offensive linemen. Sometimes this is a fair criticism of a player. However, it’s also an observation that requires a strong frame of reference about the critic. It’s easy to evaluate a running back, see him run into a lineman’s back, and conclude that he lacks patience, agility, or good decision-making.

However, there are numerous examples of plays where a running back is not at fault for colliding with the backsides of his blockers. Considering the number of Tweets I saw this week where this conclusion was made about a back, I thought it might be helpful to provide examples of when this type of behavior is not the fault of the runner. I’m using South Carolina running back Marcus Lattimore and his teammates as an example. Continue reading