Posts tagged 2013 RSP

Download the RSP Post-Draft Today!

May 1, 2013 0 Comments read RSP Publication

If you think of me when you see these three players - among others - you don't need me to say any more. If you don't, perhaps its time to starting downloading the RSP publication every April 1. — If you think of me when you see these three players – among others – you don’t need me to say any more. If you don’t, perhaps its time to starting downloading the RSP Post-Draft.

The 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio Post-Draft Add-On is ready for download. If you’re in a dynasty league, the combination of the 2013 RSP and the RSP Post-Draft will have you prepared for this year and beyond. Want details? Need details? I have ’em right here:

67 pages
How to use the RSP and RSP-Post Draft together
Overrated/Underrated
Good/Bad post-draft fits
UDFAs to watch
Long-term dynasty waiver wire gems
Long-term developmental projects
Strategic overview of 2013 rookie drafts
Tiered Value Chart Cheat Sheet across all positions
Post-Draft rankings analysis and commentary
Average Draft Position (ADP) Data
RSP Ranking-to-ADP Value Data
Raw Data Worksheets to continue calculating additional ADP data for future drafts

Seriously, this analysis is worth the price of the 2013 RSP package alone, but you get this as a part of your purchase with the 2013 RSP. Remember 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light to prevent sexual abuse in communities across the United States. While that alone should get you to download the RSP package, do it because you will be blown away with the detail and insight of the analysis and content. It’s why the RSP has grown so much in the past eight years.

Download the 2013 RSP and RSP Post-Draft here

Quick note: I transposed the passing touchdowns and rushing/receiving touchdowns in the post-draft. It should be 4 points per passing touchdown and 6 points for rushing and receiving scores. My apologies.

2013 RSP Post-Draft

April 28, 2013 0 Comments read RSP Publication

Will Bell be an immediate impact player in Pittsburgh? Photo by Matt Radick. — Will Bell be an immediate impact player in Pittsburgh? My take on this and the rest of the skill position picks (and UDFAs) coming this week – see below. Photo by Matt Radick.

For the next few days, I’ll be working on the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio Post-Draft Add-On. This is a .pdf document of 60-70 pages for fantasy owners that includes rankings by position and also across all positions. The post-draft analysis also discusses scheme fit, depth chart projections, fantasy draft analysis, and value scores for each player.

The RSP Post-Draft Add-on comes with purchase of the 2013 RSP. It will be available for download no later than Friday, May 3 but I anticipate it could be available as much as a day or two earlier. I will email all subscribers once it’s available as well as announce it here.

Here are the first six responses I from an email about the RSP-Post Draft minutes after I sent the message:

“Great, thanks and awesome work!” – Mark Costanza
“Thanks Matt. Appreciate your good work a lot. Big thank you and best regards from Germany” – Deiter Janssen
“Thank you so much for the insane amount of work you put into the RSP.” – Corey Tadlock
“Big fan here keep doing what you do!!” – Russell Franceschini
“It’s been awesome to watch the growth of this project from year to year. Congratulations.” – David Hamill
“Can’t wait!!! And great work BTW” James Tallon

If you have yet to purchase the RSP, I encourage you to do so. In addition to it being a value to you, each purchase allows me to donate 10 percent of the cost to Darkness to Light. D2L combats sexual abuse through training and awareness to community organizations and individuals.

For those of you who have done so – thanks for making this a great year already!

2013 1st Round Draft Thoughts and Links

April 26, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

The attitude towards the term "project" is often a glass half-full/half-empty proposition. Which one is Manuel? See below. Photo by D Wilkinson. — The attitude towards the term “project” is often a glass half-full/half-empty proposition. The Bills are optimistic. See below. Photo by D Wilkinson.

Looking for a little preview of my 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio Pre-Draft Rankings? The New York Times is posting the RSP top-five at each skill position.

Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Tight Ends (Posted soon)

There will likely be a cluster of quarterbacks and receivers leaving the board in the second and third round who have just as much if not more of an impact that the first-round talent. I think the same will happen with running backs and tight ends in rounds 3-5 and it will be important to analyze team fit in terms of prospect talent, depth chart talent, and scheme.

Remember, when you purchase the RSP you also get the Post-Draft Addendum with revised fantasy rankings across all positions, preliminary ADP data, and player-team fit analysis. With a draft like this where we didn’t see a lot of skill players go off the board in the first round, the more you know about these guys the better.

Download the 2013 RSP today and when I announce the post-draft add-on is ready you enter your login and password to download it as well.

First-Round Thoughts – You can find links to analysis of a majority of these players here.

1. Kansas City- Left Tackle Eric Fisher: Fisher’s athleticism makes him a slam dunk here. While Joeckel is an excellent player in his own right, Fisher’s ability to pull and the similarities to former Chippewa and Niner tackle extraordinaire Joe Staley made it too difficult for Andy Reid to resist. Remember, Reid loves the screen play and and Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, Dexter McCluster, and Devon Wylie are the type of players with run after the catch skills who will also benefit from a tackle who can work the flats.

2. Jacksonville – Tackle Luke Joeckel: Will he play left or right with Eugene Monroe there? Doug Farrar thinks Joeckel is a better right tackle in terms of athletic match. What I can tell you is that the Jaguars have had their share of ailments at the line of scrimmage and it’s always good to have redundancy at one of the more important positions on offense. There’s still time for Jacksonville to grab a quarterback if they want to make this a three-horse race between a rookie, Blaine Gabbert, and Chad Henne. Personally, I think they would be wise to give Gabbert one more year, but he better shake the “Blame” Gabbert label quick.

3. Miami (trade with Oakland) – Outside Linebacker Dion Jordan: Cameron Wake opposite Jordan, but Jon Gruden brings up an interesting point in terms of Jordan playing a rotation at Oregon and whether he’ll be good for four quarters of NFL football. I’m not too worried about Jordan’s conditioning as much as how he’ll fit into a new defense. He also strikes me as more of a “clean-up” playmaker than the instigator. On a team with Cameron Wake on the opposite side, that’s not a bad thing, but if Jordan had to be that primary guy I’d be more worried. It’s a fine pick and a risk worth taking because of the Aldon Smith upside.

4. Philadelphia – Left Tackle Lane Johnson: A former college quarterback-tight end-right tackle who is now drafted as a left tackle. You need an athlete for up-tempo football and he can play either side. Johnson will bolster the running game and hopefully transition smooth enough to give Mike Vick fewer breakdowns. Of course, Vick has to improve his presnap calls and Johnson has to get used to playing with a mobile quarterback who can be out of control at the wrong times.

5. Detroit – Defensive End Ezekial Ansah: Great athlete who, like Jordan, cleans up better than he starts action. He’s inexperienced compared to even most prospects. Detroit loves his effort and I think this is Jim Washburn lobbying Jim Schwartz for another chance to find a Jason Pierre-Paul. Hopefully there is a fast learning curve or Willie Young takes a huge step forward – he was a second-round pick, you’d think he’s capable. Of course the bills made DT John McCargo a first-round pick and he’s done zilch.

6. Cleveland – Outside linebacker/Defensive End Barkevious Mingo: Mingo’s upside is worth the risk. I think OLB is an easier transition than to DE and he was an LB in high school. Mingo is a misunderstood prospect in terms of his diminished production last year. He was asked to contain the quarterback rather than attack and this meant bull-rushing 300-pound linemen. For a player his size to do this effectively – and he did – takes excellent strength and quickness. First-round pick D.J. Fluker didn’t look all that good against the “raw” Mingo. Cleveland got a potential impact player once this kid refines 1-2 moves that he already has in his toolbox.

7. Arizona – Guard Jonathan Cooper: One of the safer picks in the draft. Unbelievably quick and his ability to pull not only helps the running game, but play action. Remember, the best play action passes often come with a pulling guard. It’s not always how convincing the quarterback’s fake or the threat of the specific runner as much as it is the fear of the guard. The threat of Cooper will fool a lot of defenders in this league and buy Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald more time. People can make fun of Palmer’s lack of mobility all they want, but he’s far more nimble than many have characterized on TV. Regardless of mobility, Palmer still throws a great deep ball and has three players capable of working down field with the benefit of play action. Cooper will help buy time. If the tackles play a little better, I’d give a bump to Palmer, Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and Andre Roberts. There’s some nice material for this passing game to click and this team will need to throw the ball a lot.

8. St. Louis (trade with Buffalo) – Wide Receiver Tavon Austin: If Austin is misused, he’ll look like Dexter McCluster pre-Andy Reid days. If his talents are maximized, Darren Sproles and Wes Welker come to mind. Austin is not as talented as either in their specific skills as runners and receivers, but he’s a good mix of both and that means he could be one of the more productivity rookies this year.

9. NY Jets – Cornerback Dee Milliner: I said I’d be surprised (December 1) if he wasn’t a top-10 pick. Miller’s ability to play the receiver and the ball in tight coverage is excellent. He may not catch a lot of passes, but he knows how to jar it loose and get the angle to knock it away. That’s more important that the interception. He’s also a terrific run defender. The Jets may miss Darrelle Revis, but if Milliner plays like he did at Alabama only your less enlightened New York fans will be bashing Milliner a few years from now.

10. Tennessee – Guard Chance Warmack: Warmack bolsters a Titans line and the hope is to give Chris Johnson and dare I say, Shonn Greene more room to roam. If you ask me, they should take another running back. Spencer Ware could beat Greene in his sleep and make a great complement to Johnson, but I don’t think the front office would like to be embarrassed for its misstep on free agent runners so don’t count on it. Then again, if they were foolish enough to take Greene, perhaps they lack the awareness to avoid a better back they can get in rounds 5-7.

11. San Diego – Tackle D.J. Fluker: Safe pick who can play tackle or guard, but I wonder if this is a “play not to lose” pick. Fluker is that kind of guy that teams say “if he doesn’t work at tackle, we at least have a guard.” That’s not how I want to feel about a first-round pick. Cleveland did that with tackle Jason Pinkston two years ago, but the budding stud at guard was a fifth-round pick.

12. Oakland – Cornerback D.J. Hayden: A good player versus the pass. But when the largest artery in your body attached to your heart looks like wet toilet tissue in the operating room and you’re seconds from death, it’s hard to believe the Raiders would be this confident to take Hayden this early. I like their confidence, but for an organization with a track record of taking great athletes with high risk thresholds fans have to be somewhat concerned. If it pays off, he’ll be just what this team needs because its cornerback depth chart is unproven, at best.

13. NY Jets – Defensive Tackle Sheldon Richardson Excellent athlete, but is he a three-technique? What does this mean for the future of the defensive scheme and use of current personnel like Coples?

14. Carolina – Defensive Tackle Star Lotulelei: I think he’s capable of being the best player in this draft. I have a feeling the heart condition scared off all these steak-eating, heart medicine-taking football decision-makers in their 50s and 60s who considered the Utah defensive tackle early. There’s concern he wears down late in games but nobody plays 91.5 percent of the season’s snaps and doesn’t wear down. That’s an insane amount of snaps for a big man. He anticipates the snap better than any defensive tackle in this draft and I think his pass rushing will be better than people characterize once he’s on a rotation that doesn’t ask him to play as much as he did out west. If Jon Beason, Luke Kuechley, and Thomas Davis stay healthy, the Panthers may compete for a playoff spot in 2013.

15 Saints – Safety Kenny Vacarro: A physical, aggressive, athletic tone-setter, Vaccaro is one of my three must-have players along with Lotulelei and Fisher. He should grow into a fine player and be capable of covering slot receivers and tight ends.

16 Bills – QB E.J. Manuel: See this link for more on Manuel. It is fascinating that Marrone took Manuel over Nassib – the quarterback Greg Cosell, Russ Lande, and Jon Gruden thought was the best pro-ready passer. Manuel’s accuracy needs work, but it’s more a conceptual than technical issue. I’m not even sure you call it a flaw as much as inexperience. We’ll see if Todd McShay’s “slow eyes” assertion will be an issue. I thought Manuel read the field well and learned fast from his mistakes. He’ll make some foolish plays, but I don’t think they’ll be the same type over and over. What they’ll be able to do with Manuel and the running backs will also be something to watch. What I do worry about is the lack of a deep threat in Buffalo. Steve Johnson is a fine player, but not a classic field stretcher. They need one and I think that will be addressed in this draft – perhaps one of the next two picks.

17 Pittsburgh – LB Jarvis Jones: This makes as much sense as peanut better and jelly on toasted bread.

18 San Francisco – Eric Reid, Safety: Reid replaces Dashon Goldson. A good player who has room to get better and should do so on a defensive unit this good.

19 Giants – Guard Justin Pugh: Honestly, I don’t know much about him.

20 Chicago – Guard/OT Kyle Long: See above.

21 Cincinnati – Tight End Tyler Eifert: Joe Goodberry says Jermaine Gresham’s contract ends after 2014. Eifert has enough skill as a blocker to develop into a decent replacement with more consistent hands and routes than Gresham. I like the pick because Gresham will be the guy on the line of scrimmage and Eifert can play the Y tight end who moves around and presents problems for defenses in 12 personnel sets. This should help the run and pass game and the Bengals struggled on the ground. Of course, I don’t think they know their running back talent and that might be part of th problem, too.

22 Atlanta – Cornerback Desmond Trufant: Trufant fits the mold of a first-round corner: athletic, aggressive, and confident. He was also battle-tested due to a sub par defensive unit and perhaps the Falcons liked this about him as well. They know he’ll continue battling and not go into a shell when he gets beat.

23 Minnesota – Defensive Tackle Sharrif Floyd: Minnesota has some success developing linemen so I think it’s a good fit for Floyd, who has the potential to become an excellent 4-3 defensive tackle. The pad level has to get better, but this was a good place to take Floyd – rather than the top of the first round.

24. Indianapolis Defensive End/OLB Bjoern Werner: I like Werner as an outside linebacker/elephant-type Terrell Suggs prospect. The quickness and awareness at the line of scrimmage are good enough that I think Werner projects better here than a traditional defensive end.

25. Minnesota – Cornerback Xavier Rhodes: I love this pick because Rhodes has a chance to become a shut-down corner. He has the most athletic upside of the corners in this class. I’ll say this, if the Vikings can get good quarterback play, they have the talent to contend in the NFC North. They are trying their best not to waste the talents of Adrian Peterson and I applaud them for being aggressive. See below.

26. Green Bay – Defensive End Datone Jones: A tough, aggressive defensive end who held his own against Eric Fisher and should bolster this Packers unit.

27. Houston – Wide Receiver DeAndre Hopkins: I think Hopkins was the safest receiver in this draft and the most likely to help the Texans now and develop into a primary option once Andre Johnson leaves. Hopkins is quick, physical, and reliable. He’ll exploit single coverage and should see plenty of it. If the Texans continue to use a run-heavy offense with a play action component, Hopkins will also get deep the way Hakeem Nicks can. It’s early, but one of my favorite skill position picks in this draft.

28.Denver – Defensive Tackle Sylvester Williams: Quick first step. I’ll let Cecil Lammey tell you about it next Thursday.

29. Minnesota (trade w/New England) – Playmaker Cordarrelle Patterson: Patterson can return kicks, punts, work from the backfield, and catch passes. He’s a much better pass catcher than some characterize because his drops are not about issues with his hands, but issues of looking the ball into his body before he tries to run. It’s an obvious flaw for a player who might be the best run after the catch player I have seen in college football. This will scare football fans my age, but physically he reminds me a little of Michael Westbrook as a runner – strong agile, fast, and elusive. If he loves football more than Westbrook, he could be a player similar to Dez Bryant but perhaps even better with the ball in his hands and more versatile. I love this kind of move because the Vikings need help now and Patterson may not help immediately as a receiver the way Hopkins could have, the team should be smart enough to find ways to use Patterson in the offense and get big plays.

30 St. Louis – Linebacker Alec Ogletree: The Georgia linebacker will play outside in this scheme and his combination of athleticism and skill as a former safety make him a player that reminds me of former Jeff Fisher linebacker Keith Bullock. Ogletree lacks that refined skill, but I see why the Rams took him.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Why Buy the RSP?

April 25, 2013 0 Comments read RSP Publication

A 261-page online publication that provides 1029 pages of play-by-play notes from my evaluation database and 10 percent of your purchase is donated to fight sexual abuse.

Never heard of the RSP? Your first time considering it? Find out why the most common thing I hear from new readers is that this publication dedicated to the study of offensive skill players exceeds expectations with most new readers and has built a loyal following. Hard not to do when you get a pre-draft publication, a post-draft update, and 10 percent of each sale is donated to combat and prevent sexual abuse. See below.

BTW – Best pre-draft scouting report on every conceivable guy [at the skills positions] is by @MattWaldman. Very good read – mattwaldman.com

–Chris Brown, author of Smartfootball.com and Grantland contributor, via Twitter

Q: What is the purpose of the RSP?

The RSP isn’t a draft-prediction publication, it’s an analysis of talent based on a player performance on the field. This can help draftniks learn more about the talent of players without worrying about the machinations of the draft that are often an entirely different animal from talent evaluation. The evaluation techniques for the RSP are designed to target a player’s athletic skills, positional techniques, and conceptual understanding of the game. It also makes a great resource for fantasy football players.

Q: What makes the RSP different from other draft analysis?

The Rookie Scouting Portfolio is the best guide to the QB, RB, WR, and TE talents in the draft because it goes deeper than any other guide. Because Matt shows his math with hundreds of intensely detailed individual game breakdowns. Because it ranks prospects not just overall, but for each attribute. Because if you read between the lines, Matt is teaching you how to scout these positions, what to look for, how to articulate what you see. It’s a must for any serious football fan, fantasy football player, or anyone that wants to get smarter about watching football.

-Sigmund Bloom, Footballguys co-owner, B/R Draft Analyst, and “On the Couch” host.

I use an extensively documented process and I make the work available for the reader to see – although I don’t send them through a forced death march through the material. As a reader, you don’t have to feel the pain I had writing it – the masochism is provided at your convenience.

Still, the process is important to talk about. It has helped me arrive at high pre-draft grades for many underrated players, including Russell Wilson, Matt Forte, Ahmad Bradshaw, Dennis Pitta, Arian Foster and Joseph Addai. Where it really makes a difference is when I’m studying a player in a game where the competition limits a player’s statistical success and I’m still able to see the talent shine through. Likewise, this process has helped me spot critical issues with players like Stephen Hill, Isaiah Pead, Matt Leinart, Robert Meachem, and C.J. Spiller when others anticipated an early, and often immediate, impact.

Q: How is The Rookie Scouting Portfolio rooted in best practices?

I managed a large branch of a call center and eventually had responsibility for the performance evaluation of over 70 call centers around the U.S. I began my career from the bottom-up. I was heavily involved in recruiting, hiring, training, and developing large and small teams of employees.I often had to build large teams that competed with a client’s internal call enter and with a fraction of the budget to train and develop in terms of time and money.

We beat them consistently.

One of the biggest reasons was a focus on instituting quality processes. We figured out what was important to us, how to prioritize it’s importance, and how to evaluate our employs in a fair, consistent, and flexible manner to spot the good and bad. Eventually, my company sent me to an organization that provided training for best-practice performance techniques that successful Fortune 500 businesses tailored to their service and manufacturing sectors.

The most important thing I learned that applies to the RSP is best practices for monitoring performance. Although the original purpose for my training was to monitor representatives talking with customers over the phone, these techniques also made sense to apply to personnel evaluation in other ways. Football is one of them.

Think the NFL couldn’t use a best-practice approach? Read about its current evaluation system and what former scouts have to say about the management of that process and you’ll think differently. The RSP approach makes the evaluation process transparent to the reader and helps the author deliver quality analysis.

Another “best practice” I’m implementing in 2013 is “giving back.” Ten percent of each sale in 2013 is going to charity.

Q: The RSP is huge, but you say it is easy to read and navigate. How is it structure? Is it iPad-friendly?

The easiest way to describe the RSP is that it’s an online publication with two main parts:

The front part most people read, which is the same length of any draft magazine you see at the newsstand.
The back part that my craziest, most devoted, and masochistic readers check out – all the play-by-play analysis of every player I watch.

The RSP has a menu that allows you to jump to various parts of the publication so the crazy detail in the back doesn’t swallow you whole and you never return to reality. I continue to provide the back part because many of my readers love to know that I back up my analysis with painstaking work. In that sense they are also sadists, but being the ultimate masochist that I am – I appreciate their sadism.

“The GoodReader app takes anything I want to read in PDF form, presents it very nicely, and makes the document portable and enjoyable. The encyclopedia that you’ve created (which I absolutely love 25% into it) would require someone to peer into his or her computer/laptop screen for a very long time. On an iPad inside that app it bookmarks your place and makes reading long files a joy…AND PORTABLE.”

-Ray Calder

Q: I heard the RSP gives back to charity. How?

Beginning in 2012, I started donating 10 percent of every Rookie Scouting Portfolio purchase to charity. This is something I have wanted to do for a long time. Once the Penn State scandal broke, I decided to send the funds to the program Darkness to Light.

Darkness to Light – Excerpt from their mission statement: “Darkness to Light is a national organization and initiative. Our mission is to empower people to prevent child sexual abuse. Darkness to Light’s public awareness campaign seeks to raise awareness of the prevalence and consequences of child sexual abuse.”

Q: What do readers think of the RSP?

I collect these emails like one of my favorite pizza joints in Colorado collects napkin drawings from customers and places them all over the walls of its restaurant. If you have one you want to send me, please feel free. I’ll add them my list. Here are some of them below:

“If you don’t buy the RSP, be prepared to get dominated in your rookie draft by someone that did.”

– Jarrett Behar, Staff writer for Dynasty League Football and creator of Race to the Bottom.

“In complete awe of the 2007 Rookie Scouting Portfolio via @MattWaldman — Incredibly in-depth analysis that required time & football smarts”

– Ryan Lownes, Draftnik (with strong online analysis in his own right)

Any diehard #Dynasty #fantasyfootball fan should go get @MattWaldman’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio bit.ly/I4fOa2 You’ll thank me later

-@JamesFFBNFL Draft analyst, enthusiast, and writer for DraftBreakdown.com and Bleacher Report.

“For someone like me who doesn’t closely follow the college game, there is nothing I have found even vaguely measuring up to your thoroughness and point by point analysis of the draftable rookies. Among my favorite things is that at the core you rely on play rather than comparing stats produced or combine numbers. Measurables I can get anywhere, but numbers offer little perspective on what they mean or what factors together created them. I want to know what a guy looks like out there, who plays fast – rather than who runs fast in shorts with no one to dodge or avoid. Which WRs can and can’t run routes or consistently get separation or catch with their hands or fight off defenders to make contested catches. Your exhaustive package gives me a basis to work from including a careful look at every significant player. I can read and add the views and comments and stats I want to like ornaments on the Christmas tree – where that tree is the foundation of player abilities that you weave together into a ranked whole.

I have no way to know how right or wrong your conclusions are. You certainly don’t shy away from controversial evaluations. But overall, for just plain understanding of who the rookies are, how they play and what we might expect in the NFL – I don’t know of anything close. After reading this tome, I would feel blind and naked walking into a rookie draft next year without having that insight. My huge thanks!”

–Catbird, Footballguys.com message boards

“Love your work. I’ve subscribed to your RSP for the past 3 years and it is my bible for dynasty league rookie drafts.”

– David Liu

“In our business, we are able to access many different types of reference materials. The Rookie Scouting Portfolio stands above the rest for one simple fact: it is more comprehensive than anything else I have seen. Matt Waldman is head and shoulders the best fantasy football expert I have had on the air, and his expertise starts well before the players get to the NFL with analysis and game film study of the incoming rookie class. I can’t recommend the RSP highly enough.”

– Ian Furness
Host, Sports Radio 950 KJR
Seattle, WA

“All I can really say at first is “Wow!” There is just a TON of great and useful information packed into that report. I thought I’d give it a quick glance during my lunch hour and I found myself reading quite a bit of it over the next 2 hours. I like the way everything is laid out. It’s easy to understand and covers all the items necessary to make it a top notch scouting report for the fantasy footballer.

– Tim Huckaby

“IMHO this is a MUST read. Matt really does the work and tells it the way he sees it. Had a couple of GREAT picks this year with Austin Collie and and I think Stafford. In prior years, he has lead me to Ray Rice in a PPR no less and Mike Sims Walker… If you are like me in a Zealots league, go back and read the prior years as it helps with the RFA/UFA process.”

– Tony Madeira

Hey Matt,

Just thought you would want to know that I enjoyed the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio so much that I had to buy the other six years, to see what you had to say about previous players. I’ve been playing fantasy football for over 20 years (started at age 11) and I can’t tell you how refreshing it is to see someone put this much effort into analyzing prospects skills, and then filtering that info back to their potential fantasy value.

Not sure if you have a running testimonial page but if your ever inclined to do so, feel free to use this email as one, if you wish.

Not trying to kiss your butt or anything but your work is really an inspiration for someone like myself.

thank you for your efforts,

Sean Douglas, FantasyInfo.com’

Download the 2013 RSP or purchase past issues (2006-2012)

Futures: WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Playmaker

April 24, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Wide Receiver

Patterson may not be a Playmaker according to Football Outsider's score, but he is one in my book. Photo by Nashville Corps. — Photo by Nashville Corps.

Cordarrelle Patterson may not be a playmaker according to Football Outsider’s Playmaker Score, but the elusive receiver with skills as a receiver that many top prospects-turned-busts lacked is worth the risk in my book. Find out where I think the Combine, production, and film study have a place in this discussion of this versatile, athletic, wildcard.

When it comes to evaluating football talent, I believe analytics can be a part of the conversation. The Playmaker Score is a good example.

I think the Playmaker Score is a nice attempt at data mining where Vince Verhei has reverse-engineered a formula with the hope of developing a successful model to predict future results. The score does enough to have value in discussions about specific wide receiver prospects, but Playmaker is not the entire conversation.

I believe player evaluation can be likened to a three-legged, wooden table:

Technical skill
College production
Athleticism

If one of these legs is missing or not factored into an evaluation enough, the table doesn’t function as it should. The fourth factor is character, but I think it’s best considered as liquid -– either it enhances, like a wood stain, or degrades, like water spot.

Scouting is such a hit-or-miss process because no one has figured out a way to consistently make all three legs of the table functional for every player evaluation. Nor can they predict if the player’s character will enhance or ruin the “table.”

The Playmaker Score has a grim outlook for this group of wide receivers. In contrast, many scouts and analysts tout the position as deep and talented. Before going any further, here is Vince’s overview of Playmaker:

When we first devised our Playmaker Score projection system to predict NFL success for wide receivers, we looked at individual collegiate production only. A second version added team statistics to account for players who might have seen their numbers inflated by prolific passing offenses. This year, with Playmaker Score 3.0, we’ve added Combine data for the first time. Now we’re measuring not just football skills, but raw physical talent.

We’ve made one other fundamental change to Playmaker Score, and it involves the way collegiate data is handled. In the past, using career totals considerably underrated those players who were so spectacular that they skipped their senior seasons and entered the draft early, while using per-game numbers depressed the ratings for guys who had lots of one- and zero-catch games as freshmen and sophomores before exploding as juniors and seniors. We tried to get around this by using a mix of career totals and per-game data, but the results were a little confusing and somewhat illogical. So we’ve gone back to the drawing board, and we’re now using the numbers from each player’s best season. This makes the most sense because it rewards the biggest stars at the expense of more mediocre players who pad their statistics with multiple starting seasons. Obviously, there’s now a danger of overestimating one-year wonders, but we’re working on some methods to correct for that in the future.

We checked the numbers for every receiver drafted from 2005 to 2009, a group of 149 players. That gave us five years’ worth of recent history, while giving every player at least three years to break out in the NFL. For each player, we determined their NFL success by dividing their career receiving yardage by the number of seasons that had passed since, whether they were still in the league or not. We also compared their Combine numbers to their NFL statistics and checked which were most accurate when it came to predicting NFL success.

Playmaker Score addresses the basic question of how good the quarterback is when it comes to giving his receiver opportunities for production. However, I think zeroing in on passes per game as a factor makes Playmaker Score a slave to a specific kind of receiver production that doesn’t tell the entire story.

Problems Endemic to Football Evaluation

Playmaker does not fully address all the dimensions of production that can make a wide receiver a playmaker. Yards after catch is a significant example, although not a purposeful oversight. The staff here at Football Outsiders would love to have this data, but the college game does not supply it in an easily available format.

However, this is part of the reason why I think the revised 2011 Playmaker Scores missed on A.J. Green (227 points) and Randall Cobb (136 points), but it liked Jonathan Baldwin (464 points) and Torrey Smith (448 points). I think Baldwin and Smith played in offenses that were suited to what Playmaker Score rewards players for: red-zone production and longer plays from pitch-to-catch. It doesn’t factor in ball carrying of any sort, and that’s part of what it missed about Green and Cobb.

I liked Smith’s prospects, but I wasn’t high on Baldwin. One of the reasons reflects what is missing from Playmaker: it is a formula based on production and athleticism (as measured by certain sprints and jumps, at least) but it doesn’t account for technical skill.

However, I’m jumping the gun on technique. The athleticism factor also requires more discussion.

The way Playmaker uses Combine data is a problem endemic to the area of football evaluation. I believe the primary function of the Combine should first be to determine which players have the baseline speed, strength, quickness, and size to perform at an NFL level. Instead, there is too much emphasis placed on stronger-faster-higher-longer.

Playmaker’s inclusion of Combine measurements assumes that the better (certain) Combine numbers, the better the player. I think most people make this assumption, and it’s easy to do: Some people believe Calvin Johnson is a better player than Dez Bryant because he jumps higher, runs faster, and does it in a bigger body.

Athleticism is a baseline requirement, but there is a point where a player’s value can be inaccurately inflated or depressed because technical skill or capacity to learn the game isn’t properly accounted for. To give examples, we have A.J. Green on one hand, and Robert Meachem on the other.

Green had actually scored high in the previous version of Playmaker (v2.0) but does not fare well in the current version because of the Combine metrics. His NFL Combine metrics were NFL-quality, but not stellar. Yet what the formula misses, game observation catches: aplayer who gets the most from his athleticism because he integrates his physical and technical skill sets at a high level to make plays.

Meachem, on the other hand, was a fast prospect, but he couldn’t catch the ball with his hands away from his body. I admired his efforts as a senior at Tennessee to extend his arms to the football, but he often had to revert to a trap technique.

One example I recall was a game in Tennessee against LSU. Meachem dropped three passes in the first quarter alone while trying to use proper hands technique. He then reverted to a trap technique for the rest of the game.

While I admired Meachem for trying, some technical skills are more difficult to learn at this stage of football than others. Receivers who don’t make receptions with their hands away from their frames are unlikely to acquire these skills when they transition to the pro game.

This issue is what I would term a fatal error. Difficulty securing the ball after contact from a defender during the act of the reception can also be a fatal error when it comes to evaluating the technical skill potential of a prospect.

Although Meachem eventually made some strides to improve this skill, he has never been comfortable enough to make a complete transition. He has not become the impact player commensurate with his first-round grade. These two flaws were why I didn’t like Meachem’s chances of doing that, and he proved me right.

As for other examples from 2011, I loved Green (my No. 1 rated receiver in 2011), Randall Cobb (No. 3) and Torrey Smith (No. 5). In contrast, Jonathan Baldwin (No.13) was an overrated commodity in my book. Green, Cobb and Smith demonstrated excellent skill versus contact and both Green and Cobb were strong players after the catch. Baldwin’s hands techniques were spotty and his technique and conceptual execution of routes were inconsistentat best.

I think a better way to view measures of athleticism is to, as I said, first assess if it meets the baseline requirements to play in the NFL. Then assess if that player also meets baselines for skill level/capacity to learn the skills.

Once an evaluator establishes that the prospect has the basic tools, I think the fast-stronger-longer-higher quality of the Combine measurements become a refining characteristic to the evaluation process. The same goes for productivity metrics.

The problem is that we want to throw these tools into the evaluation process at a premature stage. As a result, the data can often overestimate (or underestimate) the value of players.

Cordarrelle Patterson is a good example . . . Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Boiler Room Series: USC WR Robert Woods

April 21, 2013 0 Comments read Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Wide Receiver

Woods game has a quiet intensity. See below.

Compared to his peers in this 2013 wide receiver draft class, Robert Woods has a “quiet game.” The USC Trojan is an average-sized receiver with good quickness, but his measurements as an athlete is nothing special. Yet, Woods is one of the best prospects at his position – a wide receiver class that I contend is a deep one.

I think where we often miss with prospect evaluation – whether you’re a scout, media, proponent of data mining/analytics , or a fan – is the notion that stronger-faster-quicker-taller is better. I have been gradually arriving at the perspective that Combine measurements are best used as a baseline: Does the player have the minimum strength-speed-quickness-size to compete in the NFL?

The level of these qualities only come into play once you can feel comfortable with the conceptual and technical promise of this player at his position. Otherwise, you just have a tall, strong, fast, and quick player trying to play his position and failing in dramatic fashion.

Robert Woods may have a quiet game as an athlete but just like music, some of the most stirring moments are the quietest.

A series I started this year at the RSP blog is The Boiler Room. One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play. Yet, if I need a play to add to the highlight reel that will help a team make a decision where to slot Robert Woods on its board, this is my nomination. Watch just the first five seconds and pause it.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/TiihTyOR9VU]

At first glance, this is garden-variety hitch under a defender’s cushion, which Woods breaks in conjunction with Matt Barkley’s throw based on a presnap read of the defender’s position. Woods does a good job driving off the line with his pads over his knees to force the cornerback to account for a deeper route before the receiver stops his route well under the defender at the first-down marker. The makes the catch falling towards the boundary after taking a hit from the defender.

It’s a good play, but it’s quietly a far more impressive display of athleticism than a tape measure or stopwatch can capture.

Woods takes an outside release and drives off the line as the cornerback peeks into the backfield. Woods stops and turns back to the quarterback once he gets depth beyond the first-down marker, but he could have made a more dramatic change of direction by sinking his hips and making a more violent plant of the front leg at the top of his stem.

Although his break isn’t one that will earn high marks from the Russian, Chinese, Japanese, French, British, Polish-Philadelphian (Jaworski), or the Fort Lauderdale (Irvin) judges, playing wide receiver is only like figure skating in the respect that both range of athlete own their share of drama. In football, there are times where it doesn’t matter if technique is sloppy; if the job gets done then everybody is happy.

Woods makes his break and rather than breaking to the ball, he retreats a step to the sideline. If Matt Barkley intends to throw the ball to Woods’ outside shoulder, this is an effective break to gain horizontal separation on the corner and maintain the depth of his route.

I may not love his body positioning as he waits for the ball, but a common thing Woods does well is get his shoulders square to the ball and his hands away from his body to make the catch. I believe many coaches would prefer to see Woods attack this ball from his break rather than wait for it so he can avoid any possibility of the corner jumping the route. In this case, Woods’ body does not provide a good barrier to the football if the corner got a better jump.

Another common aspect to Woods’ game as a pass catcher is that he’ll often make a slight adjustment as he makes the catch to turn his body to shield the defender as he’s making the reception.

Just before Woods gets hit, the receiver turns his hip towards the oncoming defender. The contact from the defender is hard enough that Woods cannot secure the ball to his chest. This is where the first angle of the video doesn’t reveal the difficulty of this reception.

As Woods falls towards the sideline, he manages to plant his left arm on the ground while holding the ball behind his head.

Woods finishes the play with his right arm pinning the ball behind his head, turning to the side to maintain possession of the ball. Also note the side that Woods turns to after he hits the ground.

Why would Woods turn to this side? Was it luck or quick thinking? I believe Woods turned to this side because if he turned to the opposite gravity sends the ball away from his finger tips and if he loses his grip there’s nothing else he can do to secure the ball. But the direction Woods turns allows him to us his forearm as support if the ball has any movement before he reaches the sideline. He also does a good job of producing the ball with control after the catch to sell the reception.

Some of you may note that if the ball moves in the NFL at this point, it’s not a catch. This is true, but the fact that Woods reacts this quickly and intelligently to an unusual situation is something we commonly see with good NFL starters and I would advise not to write it off as luck.

This play alone is not an indicator of Woods becoming a good NFL starter, but you know I have trouble just showing one play – take a look at this highlight package of plays as a freshman against Stanford. Many of them are against No.9 – a cornerback by the name of Richard Sherman.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/JGDr-e3E_iE]

There are enough plays like this one from the Boiler Room and games like the YouTube package above that Woods’ portfolio shows a knack for making adjustments in tight coverage. Plays like these are more routine for starters in the professional ranks. Woods’ hand-eye coordination, spatial awareness, and comfort with physical play may not broadcast at a high volume, but the intensity of the message is as strong as any receiver in this class.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

No-Huddle Series: Iowa WR Keenan Davis

April 19, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Wide Receiver

If Davis can hold onto the ball after the catch as well as he holds onto after contact in the act of the reception, he could have a nice NFL career. Photo by Go Iowa State.

What if I told you Keenan Davis is a safer pick than Tavon Austin? I know, I can’t even say it with a straight face. Although an attention-getting joke, don’t laugh off Davis’ game. The 6’2″, 216-pound Iowa receiver is a skillful player whose game fits with a greater variety of NFL offensive styles than the West Virginia hybrid.

Austin is a scheme-dependent player at this stage of the NFL’s evolutionary cycle. This is not a knock on his skills as it is a statement about smaller players with diverse skill sets. At this point, an NFL team will have to use him from the slot or the backfield to maximize his statistical upside. I think it is unlikely that Austin has the physical dimensions to become a full-time outside receiver – the most important being a decent, but not fantastic vertical leap of 32 inches.

If Austin had Davis’ 38-inch vertical I’d be more inclined to say the West Virginia star has Steve Smith-like potential. Of course, no one is Steve Smith. If there was one guy I wanted to take for the RSPWP2 to pair with Carson Palmer it was the Carolina receiver. He’s nearing the final years of his career, but he’s as ferocious a receiver as I have seen play.

Davis is some ferocity to his game. Combine that with 4.48-speed (40-yard dash), and I think we’re looking at a player who not only can make an NFL team and contribute in four- or five-receiver sets early in his career, but he has the upside to develop into a starter on the outside.

Like Connecticut tight end Ryan Griffin, Davis is a good player in a draft class stocked with talent at his position who can thrive in most NFL systems because he plays a physical brand of football.

Over the Middle

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGBVbPgaGgY&start=13rel=0&w=560&h=315]

On this 3rd-and-seven play against Pittsburgh, Davis is the outside receiver on the twin side of the formation working off press coverage to the middle of the field. Many receivers get distracted with contact on quick-hitting passes, but not Davis. The replay shows Davis using his outside arm to ward off the corner before turning to make a nice adjustment on a high throw in the middle of the field.

Best yet, Davis makes a money catch, taking a shoulder from a linebacker after he exposes his body to the interior defender and still hangs onto the ball. These are must-plays for offenses to sustain drives. They are also difficult plays to make, which is one of the reasons why spreading the field and going to smaller, quicker athletes is a trend – if you can’t find one of these tough guys you better find receivers defenders have difficulty laying a finger on.

On the Perimeter

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGBVbPgaGgY&start=83rel=0&w=560&h=315]

What I like about this catch is that Davis doesn’t make his best leap towards the ball, which gives the cornerback a chance to play the ball. Although the defender misses his attempt to swat the pass, Davis still manages to snare the ball in traffic while airborne and falling towards the boundary. Focus is a consistent theme in Davis’ game and I value this from a receiver because tight coverage, impending hits, leaving one’s feet for the ball, or working routes near the boundary present a lot of distractions from the primary mission: catching the football.

A bonus is the hand strength to maintain possession despite the cornerback’s attempts to pry the ball loose on the way to the ground. There’s a toughness to Davis’ game that I think will earn him a roster spot and give him a chance to refine his game.

“Bad-Ball” Receiver

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGBVbPgaGgY&start=213 rel=0&w=560&h=315]

The replay of his slant reveals how Davis has to reach to his back shoulder in tight coverage to make a play on the ball before taking another hit. This isn’t a dramatic adjustment, but I see wide receivers at every level drop this kind minor adjustment all the time.

Vertical Route

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Gg22Y28AjQ&start=141rel=0&w=560&h=315]

This 2nd-and-26 go-route against single, press coverage is another nice example of Davis’ skill at adjusting to the ball while working off contact. Although I have seen Davis drop his share of passes after contact, there are generally two types of plays where this happens:

High passes where the defender has position to knock the ball loose as Davis extends for the target (and generally bad ball location).
Just after Davis makes the reception and he’s running down field without the ball secured to his body.

Play No.2 is better defined as a fumble and I predict if Davis doesn’t make a squad it will have to do with him continuing to display poor ball security (a product of effort you like to see, but not to the detriment of losing possession for the offense).

On this play, Davis manages to work outside the corner and maintain his balance after some hand fighting with the ball in the air to make a diving play with his back to the quarterback. As you see, focus and skill after contact is the line that connects these plays. Davis isn’t an exciting prospect compared to most of the receivers I have in my top 20 at the position, but he’s a workmanlike player whose quarterback wasn’t adept at pinpoint ball location.

If Davis shores up the ball security issues and continues to demonstrate skill after contact, he has a chance to become a good pro.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 4/19/2013

April 18, 2013 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

More draft analysis on the way from RSPHQ – including more from the No-Huddle Series and Boiler Room and my take on Cordarrelle Patterson from the perspective of Football Outsiders and its Playmaker Score. If you’re new to the RSP blog, welcome to my Friday post Reads Listens Views, my chance to share things I’ve been checking out in recent weeks – football and non-football alike.

Listens

Joseph Tawadros plays the Oud, which is the daddy of the Lute. It’s a beautiful, soulful instrument and this tune is has a steady simmer worth a listen.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/aND8DYDfXQU]

Thank You

I think we’ve all been in a situation where you have the ability to help a friend, but you don’t think he wants your assistance. However, it’s obvious that you’d be just the person to help and he never utters a peep to indicate he wants it. Sigmund Bloom had that experience with me in recent years. He kidded me recently about me never asking him to write anything to tell my readers why they should buy the RSP.

I was embarrassed. I just figured most folks knew Bloom as my friend and colleague so it made more sense to share testimonials from folks who, relative to Bloom, don’t know me from Adam. But I am honored that Bloom wants to share his view of the RSP. Especially when he publishes an always excellent collection of Scouting Reports and rankings. There’s his great work at B/R and the iconic, Bloom 100. If you’re a fantasy owner, the Bloom 100 is a MUST-READ because its writer distills each class into a simple list of tiers with a rookie draft in mind. It takes a strong grasp of player talent and fantasy football dynamics to pull off as well as Bloom.

Here’s Bloom’s thoughts on the RSP and I’d like to thank him for asking me to share it:

The Rookie Scouting Portfolio is the best guide to the QB, RB, WR, and TE talents in the draft because it goes deeper than any other guide. Because Matt shows his math with hundreds of intensely detailed individual game breakdowns. Because it ranks prospects not just overall, but for each attribute. Because if you read between the lines, Matt is teaching you how to scout these positions, what to look for, how to articulate what you see. It’s a must for any serious football fan, fantasy football player, or anyone that wants to get smarter about watching football.

If you haven’t bought the RSP before, I can say with pride that you’ll get as much out of it as I put into it – and I put everything I can into it. My readers will tell you they love it. If you’re on fence, I am confident that you’ll realize this is one of those cases where there’s little hype to what I’m saying here. Plus, I donate 10 percent of each sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit whose mission is to prevent and combat sexual abuse through community training and awareness.

Download the RSP now and know that with your purchase, you also get access to the Post-Draft publication when I announce it available within the week after the NFL Draft. At the very least, follow this blog click on the link on the left to follow and you’ll receive email updates when I post new articles. Then consider supporting the site (and do yourself a favor at the same time) by downloading the publication.

Views

Mine Kafon – Thanks to Jeff Haseley for sharing this invention, which is a sobering reminder that we’re all special people and special people are dying everyday around the world due to explosives.

Football Reads

Nobody Else is Jim Brown – The late Ralph Wiley was one of my favorite journalists. I read him as a teen when he covered the NFL for Sports Illustrated. Wiley’s chops were at their height for ESPN’s Page2. This story is a good example.
Ryan Riddle’s Draft Risk Analysis Metrics – Fascinating stuff I want to dig into deeper. Worth a look.
12 Things you Need to Know About NFL RBs – An list of stats/points that are worth considering if you’re a fantasy owner. By Mock Draft Club.
Introducing the NFL Draft Pick Value Calculator – A Chase Stuart ditty.
Seattle Seahawks Spotlight – I’m sharing this odd link not because I like the Seahawks, but because Rob Rang details how the general manager and head coach have a shared vision about talent. Something that I think is often lacking with the evaluation processes in the NFL.

Listens

The Dave Holland Quintet is one of the best bands in music today. They are at the top of my list of groups to see.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/E2qIZ-BwiE4]

Non-Football Reads

Serenity Amidst A Sea Of Haze – Adrian Landin is a world traveler and blogger of his experiences who sometimes hits me up for fantasy advice when Internet is available. Landin’s blog is a collection of excellent photography. This post is about witnessing 12,999 Buddhist monks walking the main street in a city in Thailand. I think what he captures is worth sharing. Especially if you need 10 minutes to feel transported from your current surroundings.
How Quickly the U.S. Got Fat – It ain’t pretty, but it ain’t over either – we can do something about this one if we choose.
The 10-Year Hoodie – One U.S. company’s commitment to make a quality product built to last the way things used to before much of Corporate America went beyond greedy and turned into a virus.
Think Those Chemicals Have Been Tested? – Many Americans assume that the chemicals in their shampoos, detergents and other consumer products have been thoroughly tested and proved to be safe. This assumption is wrong.
U.S. Practiced Torture after 9-11 – And it put our troops in greater danger.

Futures: Why Scouting Gets a Bum Rap – A Front Office Overhaul

April 17, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

It's time to take front offices to the Wood Shed. No beatings though. Photo by Richard Elzey. — It’s time to take front offices to the wood shed. No beatings though. Photo by Richard Elzey.

Scouting gets a bum rap.

“Of course Waldman would say this,” you proclaim. “He’s a scout!”

I may perform the fundamental role of one, but I am not a scout. This elicits laughter from my friend Ryan Riddle. The Bleacher Report columnist who holds Cal’s single season sack record and played with the Raiders, Ravens, and Jets says I have a misplaced sense of honor when it comes to refusing to wear that label.

I prefer talent evaluator, tape watcher, tapehound, or tapehead. My friends – if I have any left since I started doing this work eight years ago – might say ‘Film Hermit’ is the best fit. I’ve never worked for an NFL team, so these names seem more suitable to me. Scouts have responsibilities that I don’t – among them is reporting to management within a company structure.

If you have the chance to learn about the pre-draft process for most NFL teams, scouting is the study of a player’s positive and negative characteristics. It’s also an evaluation of how easy it is to fix the player’s issues and his potential fit within a team system. But based on what former scouts, coaches, and general managers of NFL teams say about the machinations that go into a team’s draft, I am thankful that I am not a scout.

While fans and writers may take the lazy route and blame picks gone wrong on poor scouting, it’s the general manager, coach, and owner who hold the weight of the decision-making power. This is a huge reason why scouting gets a bum rap.

To take it a step further, I’ll advance the popular Bill Parcells analogy of ‘buying the groceries.’ I can spend months in the grocery store and tell you that it has quality cuts of grass-fed steak; a delicious, rosemary batard baked in-house; and every variety of apple found in North America. But if those holding the wallet or cooking the food demand a papaya, I can tell them until I’m blue in the face that if they want a good one, it’s only found in Jamaica and they’re still going to pick an unripe one, take it home, prepare it, and then watch it spoil the meal.

It doesn’t help matters when I have to read Mike Tanier describe draft analysis as a pseudoscience. He’s right for the wrong reasons. Scouting is a craft, not a science. However, teams haven’t made it the same priority to address opportunities to improve scouting the way they have upgraded technology and embraced other forms of analysis.

With all the advances that the NFL has made with equipment, strategy, cap management, and technology, they haven’t done enough to advance the process of talent evaluation. It shouldn’t the sports equivalent of Madam Zora’s, but until teams address the problems, Tanier gets to write entertaining draft pieces at their expense.

I think there is a lot that teams can do to improve their talent evaluation processes. What I will propose here are things I’ve learned from my experience in operations and process improvement. I base my solutions on problems I’ve gleaned in conversations with former scouts, reading and listening to former NFL general managers talk about their past roles, and extensive study of college prospects for the past eight years.

Some of these ideas may be new to the NFL, but I don’t begin to think they are revolutionary in the scope of other industries. I’m sharing these things because it’s too easy to listen to a gray-haired man in a suit on a television network and take what he says as gospel – especially processes that are in fact fundamentally flawed and then perpetuated from generation to generation of football men.

When viewing NFL front offices and how they cope with change, I get the impression that many of them have a buttoned-up, low-risk culture similar in dynamic to Wall Street. It also takes a lot for newer ideas to take hold in an NFL front office as it does for an investment bank to accept “new blood” from a business school lacking a history of established connections with the firm as a personnel pipeline.

Some of what I’ll suggest is not even about new ideas; just better implementation of old concepts. The first point below is a good example where leaders tend to talk the talk better than they walk it.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

No-Huddle Series: UConn TE Ryan Griffin

April 16, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Tight End

If you ask me, Ryan Griffin is a similar style prospect to Visanthe Shiancoe, but with better hands. Photo by xoque.

I love Draftbreakdown.com. We all love Draftbreakdown.com. Those guys help me look less like I’m profiling poor comics art.

But today, I have to go old-school and use stills with UConn tight end Ryan Griffin. It isn’t Draftbreakdowns’s fault. Their lack of attention to this prospect is a reflection of the sheer ignorance that the national media has when it comes to this prospect. No one has games posted of this Connecticut tight end Ryan Griffin, once considered a good – if not top-tier – prospect at his position at the end of 2011.

I don’t know what changed, but if you ask me, it’s a draft-season injustice. I know quite a few tape hounds agree with me. Dane Brugler is a prominent witness ready to testify. I wouldn’t even need to call him to the stand. He’d be shouting it from the cheap seats of the courtroom.

If I were into video production, I’d correct this travesty “right quick and in a hurry,” but that’s not my specialty. I will give you the next-best thing. What I enjoyed most about watching this 6’6″, 254-pound tight end in two games against Pitt (2011-2012) and one at Syracuse is his sneaky athleticism. Before you know it, you realize that you’re witnessing an NFL-caliber athlete in action.

2nd-and-three Drag

This is an I formation two-tight end set with Griffin on the wing to the quarterback’s right. The offensive runs a play-action pass with a roll out the opposite direction of the fake. This backside roll-out to the tight end on the drag route is one of the oldest plays around. Griffin slants inside, places a hand on the edge defender and then sprints right to the flat.

The ball arrives on-time and at the numbers for Griffin to extend his arms and make the catch with his hands. Although his hands could be extended a little more from his body, I like how he turns his frame to the ball to present a good target. There’s another practical reason to for a receiver to turn his chest to the ball: in case he has a lapse of coordination and the ball goes through his hands. If his chest is square to the incoming pass, there’s a greater surface area for the ball to bounce off his body towards his hands.

This technique gives the receiver another chance to catch the football whereas if his back shoulder is behind his outstretched arms, the ball is more likely to ricochet off the shoulder and behind the receiver, increasing the likelihood of a defender earning a shot at the rebound.

The UConn tight end secures the ball to his sideline arm, turns up field, and extends his separation from the backside pursuit. The yellow arrow in the upper left corner of this still is the path of the cornerback about to appear in this picture that seems like a lot of empty space for a ball carrier to roam.

Griffin has enough quickness to gain seven yards before the cornerback travels two and breaks down to attempt a tackle. Griffin isn’t the fastest tight end in this class, but he can move. It will be an pervasive theme throughout this analysis.

Griffin hurdles the Panthers corner, who breaks down too early. The UConn tight end is not ready for the high hurdles in a track and field event, but the move is fluid, well-timed, and effective. It qualifies as athletic by NFL standards.

I also like that Griffin sticks the landing in stride at the 25, and continues moving as the backside linebacker closes. Griffin nearly runs through the hit to his ankles. The play ends when his knee hit the 21. While the play call was a huge factor in this 23-yard gain, Griffin’s execution and athleticism deserves props.

1st-and-10 Corner

Griffin also demonstrates sideline awareness as a receiver and can make the smaller adjustments necessary to work the perimeter. This 12 personnel 1×1 receiver set has Griffin as the right end next to right tackle before the snap.

As the receiver at the top of the screen motions across the formation to the wing behind Griffin, the safety over top creeps to the line of scrimmage. The safety doesn’t pose a direct problem for Griffin’s release, but it does congest the release area just enough that the tight end has to have a good plan to avoid the defensive end’s jam.

This is not as easy to see as video, but Griffin does a find job of reducing his inside shoulder to avoid the contact of the defensive end and get a free path up the seam. I personally like this technique because it allows Griffin to avoid his opponent and maintain a position where he can drive off the line of scrimmage and achieve good acceleration into his stem. This release helps Griffin work past the linebacker dropping to the flat and avoid subsequent contact (see below).

The Pitt defense is play zone coverage and the quarterback has three reads to this side. I wouldn’t be surprised if the reads on this 1st-and-10 play go short to long because the flat and hook routes break first. The coverage is good enough in the flats that the quarterback waits for Griffin to make his break towards the corner.

The quarterback waits long enough for the tight end to get behind the safety before delivering the ball at the sideline. Griffin once again turns his shoulders and chest to the target and extends his arms to the football as he’s closing on the boundary. The next two stills demonstrate good hands, quick feet, and boundary awareness all working in coordination.

I like what I see with the little techniques and the they are all important when seeking a player with NFL skills. However, these are all basic plays in the tight end canon that you seek from any NFL option that will play at the line of scrimmage. What makes the lack of coverage of Griffin disappointing is his skill split away from the formation.

3rd-and-eight Post

Although Griffin doesn’t make the catch on this play, there is a lot to like here. First, is the confidence that UConn has in the tight end’s athleticism to split him wide of the formation against a cornerback in press coverage.

At the snap, the corner throws his hands towards Griffin’s chest, but the tight end is prepared for the jam. He greets his opponent’s effort by using his inside hand to meet the defender’s hands with a swat and then uses his outside arm to swim over the corner to get a clean release to the inside. This is hard to see below, but if you look close enough you get the idea.

Swat with inside arm . . .

Swim move with outside arm (yellow).

Inside release and driving up field.

The quarterback slides to his right to avoid pressure as Griffin maintains separation inside the corner and works behind the safety towards an open window to the post near the hash. The quarterback should lead the tight end inside as much as possible.

I think the quarterback should have thrown the ball to the region of this box inside the the goal post and over the safety to the right of it. Instead the quarterback’s pass is in the region outside the goal post and this gives the cornerback a chance to work behind Griffin and play the ball.

With a veteran NFL quarterback, this target results in a touchdown because of better pass placement inside. There’s not much more anyone could have expected from the tight end on this play. He executes a good move to wkr though the press coverage and get separation on a cornerback, but the quarterback doesn’t come through. A better throw and this is s touchdown, a highlight, and probably does a little more to pique the interest of the football media that is sometimes obsesses with the latest, greatest, shiny-new toy.

1st-and-10 Flat

Speaking of shiny-new baubles, here’s a play that I believe Griffin makes better than Zach Ertz on a consistent basis – receptions on low throws in coverage.

Griffin finishes a solid speed cut to break outside and I like that as he makes the break he gets a little more depth to work behind the first down marker (below) before he comes back to the ball.

Griffin slides as the ball arrives and extends his arms to get them under the football so he can still make the catch with his hands. The entire play, Griffin is in control despite leaving his feet and reaching low for the ball.

While Ertz makes these plays on occasion, he is rarely displaying this level of balance to attack the ball. Ertz often looks like a big man making an adjustment. Griffin who is not much smaller just looks like a man doing his job. On the following play, Griffin works from the slot, swims inside the contact of the safety in single coverage and beats him to the goal line for the touchdown. I’m not showing it because it’s not much different from what you’ve seen from him on earlier post route split wide against the cornerback.

Griffin is the type of prospect who I believe will have a longer career than half the players ranked above him and he’s a sneaky-good player to add to your fantasy rosters during the summer if beat writers begin to take a shine to him. If not, don’t be surprised if two years from now he has infiltrated the lineup as a subpackage receiver making plays and your buddy on the couch is screaming WHO IS THIS GUY?

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.