Posts tagged 2013 RSP

The Boiler Room Series: Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib

February 28, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Quarterback, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form)

I get the Nassib hype. Not sure I'm leading the wagon, but I'll follow the trail on my own horse for as long as it heads to the west coast (offense). — I get the Nassib hype. Not sure I’m leading the wagon, but I’ll follow the trail on my own horse for as long as it heads to the west coast (offense).

I won’t go as far to say that watching quarterbacks at college all-star practices is useless. There are fine points that can be gleaned from practices. But with each passing year I go to a college all-star game, the less time I want to spend studying them there. Watching Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, and now Ryan Nassib goes a long way to validate this thought.

A series I started this year at the RSP blog is The Boiler Room. One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect. Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play, much less a quarterback. Yet, if I were Russ Lande pounding the table for Syracuse quarterback Ryan Nassib as my top player – yes, player – in this draft, and I need a play to emphasize in that highlight reel, this is my nomination. As strange as it sounds, it’s an incomplete pass and it’s still one of the best quarterback plays I have seen from a prospect this year.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhgDOOq3hDY?start=153rel=0&w=560&h=315]

This is a 3rd and 7 with 6:26 in the half from a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun versus a 3-3-5 look at the Syracuse 32. USC sends five and the pressure off each edge comes hard enough that Nassib has to cut short his five-step drop and climb the pocket to his left. After demonstrating excellent feel for the pressure and his pocket, he gets his feet back into position to throw the ball.

He looks to his left to loft the ball from the left hash of the Syracuse 28 to his wide receiver on the intermediate cross with good underneath coverage at the USC 47 for an acrobatic catch. The pass is dropped, but it’s a fantastic throw.

Why is this such a telling play that belongs on the top of a highlight reel for a personnel director? Let’s break this down a photo at a time.

One of the best things about Nassib is his ability to see the field and make quick decisions before and after the snap. On this play, USC is going to run a twist with its left defensive end while the left defensive tackle slants outside. With the outside linebacker blitzing outside the left tackle as the tight end releases down field, the defense hopes this three-man twist and blitz gets one man through untouched. Nassib sees the pre-snap pressure from the outside linebacker and also notes the free safety taking a step backwards, which is an indicator he’ll be working to the deep middle after the snap.

After the snap, Nassib drops from center and looks down the middle to look at the two safeties as they rotate. The strong safety is moving to the middle to cover the tight end as that free safety drops as indicated before the snap. The running back spots the outside pressure coming free as the twist occupies the left side of the Syracuse line. The next photo is where I think Nassib shows something many quarterbacks don’t at any level of football.

As Nassib feels the pressure off each edge, he opts to abort a full five-step drop. Every day I watch quarterbacks and every day I see a quarterback finish a drop on a play where I know he must see and or sense pressure coming free. These plays generally end as successful defensive efforts. The best quarterbacks I watch in the NFL possess the awareness to change things up when they know the intent of the play isn’t going to work. Nassib does this above. As you can see, I circled his eventual target at the right flat. This will technically be his third read on the play.

Nassib demonstrates good form on his improvisation in the pocket. He extends the ball forward with both hands protecting it while looking down field and climbing past the edge rushers. He also has good feel for the open area of the pocket to his left and he slides in that direction soon enough.

Now in a position to throw, Nassib scans the left side of the field where he has a huge throwing lane thanks to his quick-thinking and execution. I numbered the spots of the field he scans where there are or will be receivers within the next 1.5 seconds. As I write about almost weekly, climbing the pocket is an essential part of good pocket presence and a vital part of NFL quarterbacking. Nassib is among the best in this class at it.

After making two reads to the left flat and the short middle and spotting coverage, Nassib sees his receiver over 20 yards down field crossing from right to left. He also feels the inside pressure coming free of the Syracuse center. Once again Nassib will have to maneuver from pressure in the pocket to make an accurate throw. This is where he displays fantastic accuracy, touch, and skill while off balance and under pressure.

Nassib slides left, gets on his toes and has his shoulders in great position to make a touch throw with pressure bearing down. Maneuvering the pocket successfully against two edge rushers is praise-worthy for one play; working away from a third and making the throw he does is excellent stuff. While this play is on the far end of Nassib’s spectrum of good work, he consistently displays good touch and anticipation on throws under 30-35 yards. Beyond this range, his accuracy fails him and it’s the biggest question mark of his game.

You can see the position of the coverage on this intermediate cross, but the photos below do an even better job showing how good Nassib’s placement is to this receiver who nearly makes an excellent catch on a pass thrown only where he can make the grab.

I’ve seen Nassib at his best and worst and I want to watch one more before you get the 2013 RSP. If you want a complete scouting report that I think is pretty evenly balanced, Sigmund Bloom wrote one yesterday that hits the mark. I have some minor disagreements about blitz recognition, but we’ve watched different games. I also recommend you that check out Lande’s report because I also get why he believes Nassib is the most NFL-ready rookie quarterback. I also agree that if he can develop a deep arm he can become an upper echelon starter.

If you ask me today about Nassib’s prospects, I’ll tell you that I see Lande’s logic way more than I did a month ago. Stylistically speaking, he’s a weaker-armed quarterback in the mold of Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Matt Ryan. If he had the deep range and accuracy, I’d agree completely with Lande.

With more to analyze, I think he has the chance to develop more arm strength, but how much? If he doesn’t, I think he’s an effective but limited candidate to start for an NFL team as a journeyman who is a better fit as a backup. If he develops some arm strength to hit passes 35-45 yards down field he can become a productive, long-term starting quarterback in a system that has great talent and scheme to put a defense on its heels so Nassib is in control to pick his spots on deep passes. If he significantly improves his arm strength, he could be a special player.

Stay tuned. I am.

Post-Script: Check out this throw shared via Twitter by Shaun DePasquale at NFL Draft Zone.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/iHS-esJsE3s]

That’s a 60-yard bomb in stride with velocity.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

The Kaepernick Project: FSU QB E.J. Manuel

February 27, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Quarterback

The attitude towards the term “project” is often a glass half-full/half-empty proposition. Colin Kaepernick was the glass half-full. Terrelle Pryor was the glass half-empty. Which one is Manuel? In light of the Alex Smith deal, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Kansas City Chiefs has an eye on Manuel as a project to develop behind Alex Smith ala Kaepernick.(Photo by D Wilkinson).

Read my pre-draft thoughts of Terrelle Pryor and the beer goggles effect and you know I’m not one who gets too enamored with athleticism. Some teams and fans see a big athlete with a strong arm and swift legs and they think they can mold him into a quarterback. Sometimes they are right.

Sometimes.

The term “project” is a glass half-full/half-empty term depending on the perspective of those who use it to describe a player. The reality is that glass is neither halfway full or halfway empty. It’s just a half a glass of whatever is in it until enough time passes for some action takes place with the glass to describe what its previous state was. Even that has a subjective imprint.

I think most of us thought of Colin Kaepernick as a project where his glass was half-full whereas many consider Pryor as half-empty – at least until he does something to prove otherwise and then there will be folks who claim they saw it all along that Pyror was a half-full guy. This is a blog, so I guess I could edit my original take and claim I was on the bandwagon.

But what would be the fun in that?

Manuel: A Half-Glass of Teachable Talent

I see Florida State quarterback E.J. Manuel as a half-glass of good talent. Where I think Manuel and Kapernick are similar when defining what a project is at quarterback is that like the 49ers quarterback, Manuel has lot of good quarterbacking fundamentals that don’t need to be broken down and built back up for him to eventually thrive in the NFL. The Florida State quarterback worked in an offense that used a lot of scheme variation that required sound fundamentals.

If you’ve watched the Seminoles the you know Manuel has worked under center, executed zone-read and spread concepts, ran the option, and worked from a true shotgun – often all in the same game. In comparison to Geno Smith and Mike Glennon, Manuel’s drops in all of these settings were better-defined and well timed: he gets good depth and has defined steps that help him set his feet at a width to throw the ball with accuracy and power.

Manuel’s drops aren’t perfect and his issues with deep accuracy is a testament to the fact that he’ll need to continue refining the techniques of the position. Drops are a part of the game that all quarterbacks continue to work on at every level. It’s like a musician always paying attention to his sound and how he can improve his overall tone. A good example of quarterback who improved once he made footwork development a ritual of his practice routine was Kerry Collins.

The Seminole’s quarterback’s release is another plus. He has a quick, over-the-top motion. The ball flies off his hand with a good snap and this complements Manuel’s quick decision-making. He reads defenses well enough to find the single coverage and make aggressive throws into tight windows in the short, intermediate, and deep zones of the field.

What I like most of all about Manuel is his pocket presence. His first instinct in the pocket isn’t to back away from pressure up the middle. He’ll climb the pocket and dip the shoulder, which is a big indication he’ll have the pocket presence you want from an NFL passer.

Pocket presence is a skill that I believe unlearning bad habits and learning new ones is almost too difficult to do. You need enough time under live fire to make that transition and young NFL quarterbacks don’t get that unless they are already deemed a first-year starter. Most first-year starters have this habit of climbing the pocket – or at least not backing away as the first reaction to pressure – ingrained.

There are other subtleties to his game that indicate a player who absorbs the intricacies of the game and has a good feel for integrating them into his overall game when the situation dictates. Manuel uses pump fakes to buy time or freeze a safety and he does a good job of looking off a defender on set plays before turning and throwing to the opposite side of the field.

Throw in the fact that he’s 6-5, 240, big, strong, and swift enough to either break tackles or get to the edge and there’s a lot to like. The light bulb came on for me at the Senior Bowl practices while having a conversation with Yahoo! Shutodown Corner blogger Doug Farrar, who made a simple, eloquent statement about Manuel being a clean slate much like Colin Kapernick.

Colin Kaepernick was good raw material for the 49ers. Photo by Daily Sports Herald

Farrar’s statement and comparison resonated and although the skill sets are different, I I looked back at my my pre-draft analysis of Kaepernick in 2011 (see below) and realized that the specifics of their games have differences, the overall tenor has a similar feel – two quarterbacks with clean slates that won’t have a lot of obstacles to tear down as they are building their skills to meet NFL expectations.

Kaepernick has good arm strength. Although not yet consistent enough, he flashes some nice touch and timing in traffic on intermediate routes on the perimeter. He demonstrates nice accuracy to his left, especially on the run. He can make the first defender miss in the pocket and he will use the occasional pump fake to create time as he scrambles. He wisely throws the ball away when no receiver is open and he flashes the ability to go through progressions or look off defenders before targeting his primary receiver.

His arm strength is good. The ball flies off his arm with a lot of velocity despite a release that he has improved from a side arm to a little higher than a 3/4 motion. He has good timing on deep passes and executes rollouts and passes on the run with consistent success. Although he demonstrates nice timing and accuracy on forward facing routes (hitches, comebacks, and curls) in the intermediate range of the field, his route selection is limited in this offensive game plan and he didn’t throw slants, dig routes, corner routes, deep crossers or much of anything in the middle of the field where he had to show great timing in tight coverage.

Kaepernick’s wind up is elongated and his release is far from compact. He frequently throws the ball with a three-quarter delivery, which invites more deflections than his 6-6 frame would suggest. He waits too long to check the ball down and he needs to learn how to climb the pocket and not just try to break free repeatedly. His footwork needs to improve. As it becomes more consistent, his accuracy should also get better. He tends to throw the ball high and away and his throws are frequently just a half-beat late. His anticipation should also improve with better footwork.I like that despite his speed and agility, he didn’t try to force the ball when under pressure and had the maturity to throw the ball away rather than rely too much on his athleticism. However, when he uses his athleticism it’s extremely productive. He has great acceleration to the outside and can make a big run from any play.

When moving around the pocket or breaking the pocket, he has a tendency to carry the ball loosely from his body and with his long limbs, it’s an inviting target for defenders to swipe the ball. He also needs to learn to carry the ball high and tight as a runner because of those long limbs. Even when he tucks the ball he tends to leave too much space for the ball to come loose when hit. As a runner he has some speed and change of direction, but he runs out of control, which will make him prone to big hits and turnovers.

As a runner he has some burst and change of direction to get nice gains or make defenders miss in the pocket. He’s a talented, but raw prospect that could develop into a solid starter if he demonstrates the work ethic and mental acumen to read defenses and execute.Kaepernick needs to constantly be more vigilant with how he carries the football in and out of traffic. He doesn’t have good recognition of blitzes prior to the snap. If Kaepernick stays his senior year and Vince Young continues to improve, he could see his stock rise.He’ll likely be a raw QB prospect in the way Vince Young was, but his style reminds me a lot of Young and Randall Cunningham.

E.J. Manuel is not the next Colin Kaepernick. He doesn’t run like a deer or have an ICBM missile for a throwing arm. But he and Kaepernick are “high-priority projects,” and I believe Manuel is a physically talented rookie prospect with the highest upside of any quarterback in the 2013 NFL Draft.

The Tale of The Tape

The game highlights I’m sharing today are from Manuel’s performance against Virginia Tech, a speedy and aggressive defense that threw a lot of varied looks at the FSU quarterback that tested his decision-making. Manuel saw a lot of blitzes, including unusual zone blitzes by major college standards. Zone pressure was an issue for Manuel in the 2010 ACC Title game and he had some difficulties versus N.C. State’s zone pressures in a one-point loss earlier in the year – FSU’s only defeat at this point of the 2012 season.

Let’s start with an interception in the red zone. Not a pretty beginning, but an instructive view of the type of error’s Manuel makes that are teachable. This is a 3rd and goal from the Virginia Tech 10 with 6:09 in the first quarter.FSU used a 1×2 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun against Tech’s zero deep coverage.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hC6E52F8rtA?start=65rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Manuel takes a three-step drop, feels pressure up the middle and flushes right while looking to the end zone. Nothing wrong with this at all. He throws a crossing route to his tight end at the six where there is tight trail coverage – doing this while on the move. The tight end gets his hands on the ball, but he was late getting his hands up to attack the pass, tipping the ball skyward and giving the underneath zone defender at the two any easy interception.

However, the onus of this turnover is not completely on the tight end. Manuel’s throw was a little high and hard for the situation. The placement should have been lower in this style of tight coverage. I don’t think this was an issue of technique and footwork as much as it was a fine point of emphasis with placement. I believe this is correctable.

As I mentioned earlier, pocket presence and maneuverability under pressure is more difficult to fix. Although I don’t have a video highlight of this play, this 1st-and-10 from the Virginia Tech 42 with 12:37 in the first quarter is a good one to mention. Florida State uses a 2×2 receiver, 10 personnel set versus a 4-3 with 1 deep.

The Seminoles execute a play-action pass and ask Manuel to execute a half-roll to the right. He does a good job executing the play fake with a full extension of the ball towards the runner and turns his back to the defense and looks to the RB through the exchange point.

Manuel finishes this five-step drop up the left hash while looking to his right. The safety blitzes off the right side on this play and as Manuel finishes his drop, he has to reduce the his right shoulder and climb the pocket through the safety’s wrap. This play below is from a different game, but the climbing of the pocket is similar here.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOzQy3ySFo8&start=273w=560&h=315]

If you want an even better idea of what Manuel does, see this Ryan Tannehill analysis from last year. Manuel climbs well and snaps into position to throw the ball deep with the defender loosely at his legs. He releases the ball at the 50 up the left flat to the Tech seven with a high-arcing pass to the inside of the receiver Rodney Smith, who works inside as the defensive back overruns the ball. Smith gets his hands on the ball and should have made the catch, but the defensive back is called for pass interference. The pass was under thrown and not great placement but to Manuel’s credit, not a bad chance to take, either. He knew where his receiver had single coverage and despite not setting his feet due to the pressure gets the ball in the area to generate a play.

I like Manuel’s quick decisions versus the blitz and there were several decisions on this night where his receivers failed him on throws just like this 1st-and-10 with 14:54 in the first quarter. In fact, there were four drops in the first half on slants or crosses with tight coverage but should have been caught. This play begins with a 2×2 receiver, 10 personnel shotgun set from their 18. They face a 4-3 with the Tech ends playing wide and one safety in the box just inside the left slot receiver.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hC6E52F8rtA?start=16rel=0&w=560&h=315]

The defensive back slot right blitzes the edge and Manuel hits the slot right receiver on a slant eight yards down field, leading the receiver to the middle and forcing his man to dive for the ball for a nine-yard gain. Manuel’s drop was a three-step with a scissors step included that finishes so the quarterback’s feet at shoulder width. He drives off his front foot during his release, which has an over the top delivery that is compact, and the ball snaps off his shoulder. I liked the location of the throw even if it was a little wide.

Manuel often stands tall or climbs the pocket. On a 3rd-and-19 at the FSU 9 with 7:50 in the half from a weak side trips, 11 personnel shotgun versus a safety deep with a linebacker coming unblocked outside right guard, Manuel drops five steps and as he reached that fourth step, he sees the linebacker flash in the pocket. He cuts short his drop, reduces the shoulder, and climbs the pocket from the pressure.

He dips inside a defensive tackle to squeeze through a small crease to the line of scrimmage and pump fakes down field to freeze the second level. This allows him to work to the right hash and outside the defensive back for nine yards until the defensive back drops him. Manuel could have easily backed away from the pressure or thrown the ball off his back foot. Hard to teach – see Tim Tebow.

One of my favorite scenarios to watch a quarterback operate is against double A-Gap pressure. Here is a 1st-and-10 at the Tech 47 with 1:14 in the half from a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun. Tech has one safety deep.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hC6E52F8rtA?start=139rel=0&w=560&h=315]

When the double A-Gap pressure comes during Manuel’s three-step drop, the quarterback looks over the middle and delivers the ball from the FSU 45 to his receiver on a streak up the numbers of the right flat. He hits the receiver over the back shoulder at the Tech 29.

Unlike other throws in this game where he has difficulty matching the arc and velocity into an accurate down field throw, Manuel mixes the combination well enough to get the ball behind the CB. To nitpick, Manuel still could have thrown the ball with less arc so the receiver doesn’t have to turn his shoulders back to the ball and then leap for it. Still, the receiver catches the ball ahead of the corner at the 29 and is dropped at the 25 for a 22-yard catch of a 26-yard throw. Overall, good velocity on this throw with lot of arc.

Manuel throws a touchdown on the next play, a 25-yarder to the same receiver with 0:58 in the half on 1st-and-10 from the Tech 25.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hC6E52F8rtA?start=149rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Manuel throws from a 2×1 receiver 11 personnel shotgun set versus a single safety deep off the left hash over the slot receiver on the twin side. Manuel drops three steps looking left, pump faks to the slot man to hold the safety and then turns right and delivers a perfect pass from the right hash of the TEch 33 to the receiver up the right sideline. Manuel’s pass reaches the receiver over his inside shoulder in stride and in tight coverage for the score. Make sure to check out the All-22 view on the replay.

Here’s a play against a seven-man rush on 3rd and 9 with 1:42 in the game from a 2×2 receiver, 10 personnel shotgun. Tech is only dropping four into coverage.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hC6E52F8rtA?start=279rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Manuel drops five steps from this seven-man blitz and delivers the ball off his back foot with a edge defender in his face. A nice high release point gets the ball to the left sideline and to the receiver working five yards down field. Good anticipation on an off-balanced throw. The receiver turns up field and is just shy of the first down marker. Good decision under pressure to find the single coverage.

The final play comes versus on the game-winning drive – a 2nd-and-10 at the FSU 48 with 1:13 left. FSU is in a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun versus eight defenders at the line.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hC6E52F8rtA?start=288rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Tech sends five as Manual drops three steps, climbs the pocket away from the pressure coming from his left. He’s quick with his decision and hits the receiver on the pivot route outside the left hash at the back shoulder. Very good, quick decision and move away from the Tech defensive end to get the ball to the open receiver five yards down field and giving his man room to run for another eight and a first down.

Overall, I thought Manuel had an impressive performance in this game. What these highlights didn’t show is that Manuel was down by two on the road with 2:19 left in a game where he faced a number of varied defensive looks that got the best of the offense. Manuel was sacked five times against schemes that would both most of the quarterbacks in this draft class. His teammates also dropped eight passes – all catchable by NFL standards and at least half of them easy receptions even by college standards.

I imagine Manuel will be considered as a player available somewhere in the late-second to fourth round. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Kansas City Chiefs have an eye on Manuel as a project to develop behind Alex Smith. The former 49ers starter is pro’s pro who has been to the circus and understands how to persist through ups and downs and eventually experience some success despite a ton of changes to coaches, scheme, and on-field personnel. That’s a good mentor for a locker room and a young quarterback.

The Best On-Field RB Prospect No One is Talking About

February 24, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Running Back

Lots of noise as a freshman and sophomore, but a draft season afterthought. Find out why his on-field skill is as good as any in this draft class even if the perceived risk outstrips it. Photo by nanio.

It’s late and I have to write about this prospect because he’s one of the few that generated that “wow” factor for me. Understand, the “wow” factor for me has included players ranging from Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Russell Wilson, and Ahmad Bradshaw to Cedric Peerman, Nate Davis, Trent Edwards, and Bilal Powell. Even if I have defensible rationale for the last four, my inner compass may point true north but I don’t always find a way to navigate through the wilderness unscathed.

I just studied this running back for the second time in three months. He burst onto the college scene as a freshman. Then I saw highlights during his sophomore year and presumed that I would be studying a lot of him as a junior.

It never turned out that way.

He tore an ACL. Then he re-injured that knee the following year. Next thing I know he was dismissed from his team. He wound up at a different school and was granted a sixth-year of eligibility as a medical red-shirt for reasons unknown.

He’s not big. He’s not fast. Yet, he’s the most sophisticated runner between the tackles I have seen this year.

Patient, agile, and unfazed by penetration into the backfield, this running back demonstrates excellent anticipation on the type of runs that pro teams love: Power, traps, slice, wham, and zone. He catches the ball like a wide receiver. Most of all, he’s creative and is balance is fantastic.

It doesn’t hurt that this runner has 12 years of martial arts training and is a black belt in karate.

When I watch Temple running back Montel Harris, the former Boston College star reminds me stylistically of backs like Priest Holmes, Jerome Harrison, and Ahmad Bradshaw. I shared a game of his against Clemson with Draft Breakdown-Rotoworld-B/R analyst Eric Stoner and he was equally impressed. He commented on the strength and flexibility of his ankles, his creativity, and his versatility with scheme.

He conjured late-career Tiki Barber or a less explosive Reggie Bush.

I’m a fan of the Priest Holmes comparison – both on the basis of style and dare I say talent-potential. At a half-inch under 5’10” and 205 pounds, Harris matches the build of Holmes early in his career. I also compared Harrison stylistically to Holmes. I’d slot Harris between the two as an athlete.

I’m going to show you that if Harris is healthy and not a sinking ship character-wise, he’s the most mature, pro-ready runner in this draft. Note those two qualifiers – they are huge “ifs” and glaring reasons why he might be a UDFA by April 27.

This is a game from 2010 – pre-injury, Boston College days versus Clemson. I have seen Harris in 2012 in a game where he put 106 yards on Syracuse. He didn’t look much different from his sophomore year so I feel safe sharing his BC tape.

Footwork – Balance

This is a 1st-and-10 with 11:52 in the first quarter from 11 personnel with receivers, 2×1 at the BC 26 (high ends at 0:29 mark).

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZ9sVaHSE94?start=13rel=0]

Boston College runs a trap and Harris hesitates as he reads the penetration alters his footwork to set up the trap block and goes. This doesn’t seem like a big deal, but it’s because Harris is smooth with his execution.

Harris earns two yards untouched but has a linebacker over top and a defensive lineman converging on him in the hole. He lowers his pads, spins away from the hit and wrap to gain another three yards down field for a total of six on the play.

The replay from the end zone view illustrates his processing speed, his pad level, balance, and second effort. Look at the size differential between Harris the No.99 hitting him from the side. This is great balance. I also like the use of both hands around the ball. He routinely carries the ball under the sideline arm or protects it with both arms in traffic.

Here’s another example of footwork and balance on a similar play I showed last week with Silas Redd (finishes at 2:10 mark):

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZ9sVaHSE94?start=112rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Once again, not a huge gain, but a demonstration of awareness, balance, and effort that is a consistent refrain with Harris’ performances.

Another pervading theme of Harris’ game is the ability to layer moves and use them to minimize good defensive angles. Here is a 1st-and-10 run with 11:46 in the half where Harris makes two defenders miss direct angles for positive yards. This is a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel pistol at the Clemson 24 (ends at 3:43 mark).

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZ9sVaHSE94?start=205rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Boston College runs the draw play with an opening outside left guard. Harris takes this path until he has to bounce outside the middle linebacker two yards behind the line of scrimmage, break the tackle to his legs to reach the line, and then get downhill for two more before spinning inside the safety for another two after that. This easily could have been a loss of two yards, but Harris transforms the run into a gain of four.

Receiving Talent

There are two plays from this Clemson performance that demonstrates Harris has the hands and concentration to make difficult plays for the average running back. The first isn’t even counted as a pass. This is a 3rd-and-26 lateral on a broken play where the quarterback loses a high shotgun snap, scrambles to recover, and makes an ill-advised throw across the field (play ends at 3:22 mark).

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZ9sVaHSE94?start=194rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Harris was dropped for a loss, but he has to make this catch or else the throw will be ruled a fumbled lateral and the Clemson defense could win possession. Harris has to high-point the ball with his hands over his head, knowing he’s going to take a hit in the backfield from two defenders. Good job climbing the ladder, catching the ball like a wide receiver with his back to the throw and with his hands extended from his body. The fact Harris makes the play after contact is even better.

The next play is a wheel route resulting in a 36-yard touchdown (ends at 4:45 mark).

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZ9sVaHSE94?start=246rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Harris makes a superb catch in stride with his hands extended away from his body and above his head. Although lacks top-flight speed – possibly coveted speed among lead runners, which we’ll find out later today – Harris has enough quickness and second-level burst to make the end of this play a good race to the pylon. What the running back has already shown is great balance and awareness to stay in bounds in a tight spot and extend the ball to the end zone.

Making Something Out of Nothing

Harris has a knack for yardage in tight spots and is unfazed by penetration into the backfield. Backs like Holmes, Bradshaw, and Forte all had a skill for making something out of nothing. Harris shares this skill. Here’s a 1st-and-10 run with 11:46 left where he turns a no-gainer into a four-yard run.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZ9sVaHSE94?start=382rel=0&w=560&h=315]

This should have been a three-yard loss, but Harris makes it a four-yard gain by avoiding three defenders in succession just to cross the line of scrimmage. What’s deceptive about his skill on all of these plays is the economy of his style – there are no outlandish flights to the outside or lateral cuts here.

Even this minimal gain below is a good demonstration of a player with a really good inner compass to change direction multiple times and still possess the awareness of the defenders around him and the line of scrimmage.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZ9sVaHSE94?start=369rel=0&w=560&h=315]

This is a three-yard loss turned into a two-yard gain against a defensive line that included Da’Quan Bowers, Andre Branch, Jarvis Jenkins, and Brandon Thompson.

Why There’s No Buzz

The rumors surrounding Harris’ dismissal is multiple failed drug tests. Boston College has been mum on the matter and until there is definitive evidence about Harris that explains why he’s an enormous red flag for the NFL off the field, then I’m skeptical about writing off his future in the NFL before he even gets a shot.

If you ask me, there’s a lot to like about Harris. I like the fact that he graduated from Boston College and is pursuing a graduate degree at Temple. I’m a fan of the discipline it takes to earn a black belt. I’m also bullish on the fact that Harris has dedicated almost half his life to studying karate. It doesn’t hurt that Carolina Panther linebacker Luke Kuechly has praise for Harris’ game – especially his balance.

[youtube=https://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=9FrohIbAluA&feature=endscreen]

While martial artists are also susceptible to temptations and errors of judgment just like the rest of the human race, I’m also more likely to believe that a prospect with as much training as Harris has resources to draw upon to move beyond what happened in his life at Boston College. If you recall, Vontaze Burfict was a sinking ship last year in Indianapolis – and that town is landlocked.

Keep an open mind. Talent like Harris’ compels me to do so.

Post Script: I have put out feelers about Harris and one source at the Combine told me that the conversations he had with scouts was that Harris wasn’t popular with his teammates or staff and made repeated mistakes off the field that earned him a ticket out of town. Again, take this information with some caution. Players mature and characterizations from coaches and scouts in these environs have proven inaccurate – see Terrell Davis and Arian Foster as examples. Current accounts at Temple indicate that Harris was a good teammate and citizen.

Reads Listens Views 2/22/2013

February 21, 2013 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

Friday Sleeper Tip: Cincinnati WR Kenbrell Thompkins

I’m wrapping up my film study for the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio this month. I watch multiple games of almost every player I study and I try to document at least 2-3 of those views for the publication so my readers can have play-by-play notes that shows the work behind the analysis. Yesterday morning, I watched another game of University of Cincinnati runner George Winn and tight end Travis Kelce. It was Thompkins who caught my eye the most – as did his story.

Brown was a sleeper two years ago. His cousin Kenbrell Thompkins is one now. Photo by bmward_2000. — Brown was a sleeper two years ago. Kenbrell Thompkins is one now. How are they related? See below. Photo by bmward_2000.

Thompkins is the cousin of Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown and the brother Kendall, a University of Miami wideout. When Kenbrell saw Kendall earning opportunities to go to college, he decided to ditch his life headed down a path of crime for football. Sports Illustrated’s Michael McKnight does a fine job of reporting Thompkins’ transition from drug dealer to JUCO star, leader, and in my opinion, late-round or UDFA sleeper.

I’m a fan of Thompkins because he’s not just a fine athlete with quickness, leaping ability, and fluid skill around the ball. The Bearcats receiver clearly works at his craft. I can see it with the way he runs routes. Just like Marvin Jones, he can hold a defender in suspense with his route running and plays bigger than his 190-pound frame indicates.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/fUUzOJBqITc]

The practice tape has a pre-Goodell-smackdown quality to it, but it demonstrates a lot of refinement with routes:

Sinking hips to generate hard, sudden breaks.
Setting up breaks and releases with the chattering of feet and drumming of arms.
The ability to dip the shoulder under contact at the line of scrimmage.
Integration of feet and hands to gain a release.
Suddenness to double moves.
Flat breaks to prevent trailing coverage from undercutting the target.

When the ball arrives, Thompkins is fluid at turning to the ball in tight spaces between a defender and the boundary and extending his arms to catch the ball. This practice compilation shows a lot of what I’ve seen in games – and a little more, because the quarterback play hasn’t been stellar in Cincinnati this year.

Plus, whenever I watch a wide receiver focus on details most prospects don’t address – such as engaging defenders 10-15 yards away from the ball as a blocker with good technique until the whistle blows – it’s a good indication the prospect is serious about getting better and not just leaning on his athleticism. The 2013 class is a deep one, but talent-wise Thompkins is a guy I’d remember if you’re a fantasy owner in a deep league monitoring the summer waiver wire for buzz-worthy candidates. Opportunity is a different story.

RSP Contest Update

If you think of me when you see these three players - among others - you don't need me to say any more. If you don't, perhaps its time to starting downloading the RSP publication every April 1. — If you think of me when you see these three players – among others – you don’t need me to say any more. If you don’t, perhaps its time to starting downloading the RSP publication every April 1.

The Guess the Prospect Contest I announced this week is over. All five of the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio and 2012 Post-Draft Analysis for correct answers were given away as of this morning. The correct answers were:

Prospect No.1 – Ron Dayne
Prospect No.2 – Vincent Jackson
Prospect No.3 – Arian Foster
Prospect No.4 – Mark Sanchez
Prospect No.5 – Peter Warrick

Congratulations to Frank, Michael, “labradane,” Shanker, and Steve.

To many of you who bought the 2012 RSP, thank you for making it possible to give some of these past issues away to newcomers to the blog. Available for download every April 1 (no joke) for going on eight years, the RSP is an online .PDF publication devoted to the play-by-play study of NFL prospects at the offensive skill positions. The publication has a menu that bookmarks the document so you have two types of analysis. The first portion is a magazine-style, pre-draft analysis of 120-150 pages that includes position rankings, player comparisons, skill set analysis of each position, and sleepers.

The second portion is where I show all my work: between 700-800 pages of grading reports, play-by-play analysis of every player and game I watched, and a glossary that defines every criteria in my grading reports. My readers who want the bottom line love the first half of the book and appreciate the transparency of this section. My hardcore readers love the fact that they can dive as deep as they want into these raw play-by-play notes.

Included with the RSP (since 2012) is a post-draft document between 50-70 pages that comes out a week after the NFL Draft with updated post-draft rankings, tiers, team fit analysis, and fantasy cheat sheet with value analysis (Russell Wilson was calculated as the best value last year). Fantasy owners can’t get enough of it.

The RSP is $19.95 and I donate 10 percent of each sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit dedicated to training individuals and communities on the prevention of sexual abuse. Past years of publications (2006-2012) are available for $9.95 and I also donate 10 percent of each sale to D2L. You can prepay for the 2013 RSP now.

This Weekend

You can catch me talking NFL Combine and its fantasy football implications on Saturday night from 8:30 pm to 9:00 pm on Bob Harris and Mike Dempsey’s Football Diehards Show (7:00 pm to 10:00 pm). Always a good time with these two. Bob Harris (@footballdiehard) is a must-follow for fantasy football owners. He’s the first winner of the FSWA’s Fantasy Football Writer of the Year in 2005. Harris was “the talent” in the game before fantasy football emerged from the underground.

Football Reads

Comparing Rookie Quarterbacks to Their Team’s Prior Year’s Stats – Nice presentation from Chase Stuart.
Football Outsiders Four Downs Series – Check out the NFC West, AFC South, and AFC East features this week. Good stuff.
An Insider’s Guide to the NFL Scouting Combine – A Ryan Riddle joint.
NFL Arrests Database – These are arrests and citations involving NFL players since 2000 that were more serious than speeding tickets. The San Diego Union-Tribune reviewed hundreds of news reports and public records in compiling it. The list cannot be considered comprehensive in part because some incidents may not have been reported and some public records proved to be elusive. Increased media coverage of incidents also probably accounts for more incidents listed in recent years. Personally, I think you should think of this in the scope of how many non-football people are arrested annually in far more important jobs in our society.
Recent Events Expose Sexism in Sports Culture – This piece by Kate Fagan made the rounds on Twitter. Well worth a read.

Views – Part I

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ade1LyPS1so]

Views – Part II

[youtube=http://youtu.be/O_FAt3a7EM0]

Non-Football Reads, Listens, and Views – Part III

I don’t get much commentary about these links, but those who read them seem to look forward to this stuff – even when I post events from the real world that are all too real. These links below qualify. Stretching physically, mentally, and emotionally is not a comfortable process. These links will stretch you.

[vimeo http://www.vimeo.com/25563376 w=500&h=281]

MIDWAY : trailer : a film by Chris Jordan from Midway on Vimeo.

Exclusive First Read: ‘Wave’ By Sonali Deraniyagala – Economist Sonali Deraniyagala lost her husband, parents and two young sons in the terrifying Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004. Wave is her brutal but lyrically written account of the awful moment and the grief-crazed months after, as she learned to live with her almost unbearable losses — and allow herself to remember details of her previous life.
The Strong Silent Type: The Contradictions of Being an Introverted Man – I get it. Do you?
Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence In The House of God – At the heart of the film is a small group of heroes – Terry Kohut, Gary Smith, Arthur Budzinksi and Bob Bolger. These courageous Deaf men set out to expose the priest who had abused them and sought to protect other children, making their voices heard. Gibney uses the voices of actors Chris Cooper, Ethan Hawke, Jamey Sheridan and John Slattery to tell the stories of men abused by Murphy. However, it is the faces and expressions of the courageous Deaf men that illustrate the indelible effect Murphy continues to have on their lives.

Views – Part IV

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ryCwQYlQhco]

Instinct or Practice: Demystifying the Nature of Running Back

February 19, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Running Back

Is it instinct or practice? Nothing is as simple as it looks. Here’s a 2nd-and-five run by USC running back Silas Redd in the middle of the second quarter against Utah this year that begs the question.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-iYJd50rIps&start=3749&w=420&h=315]

Nice run. Some might say Redd demonstrated excellent balance. Others might go further and say it was nice balance but a fluke play because how often does a running back get tackled, land on the chest of the defender, and not hit the ground only to realize he is not down?

Perhaps a few times a season in the NFL.

Most people will say this run was a display of good instincts. In some respects, it’s similar to the way some listeners of popular American music in the early 20th century said that black jazz musicians just did what came naturally. Entertainers at the time went along with these notions because it was a matter of keeping business.

Eubie Blake once gave an interview in which he said that when a hit song made the rounds, he would write an intricate arrangement of it, pretend that he he and his musicians did not know it, and ask a listener to hum a few bars before breaking into a complex version of the song; this convinced the assembled audience that all the talent they were hearing was proof that these people were simply natural musicians. If that story of Blake’s is true, we know what happened next, and how a party joke and clever ploy to get jobs helped deepen a stereotype.

– Stanley Crouch, Oxford American, Issue No.79, Dec. 2012

Running back may be one of the more “instinctive positions” in football, but the idea that you either have “it” or your don’t is also a simplistic way to look at the world. I believe there is special talent in the world. I believe that an individual can have a natural feel for something. While it may be a small ingredient that makes a big difference when comparing players side-by-side at the highest level, it takes a lot more than instincts to sustain that top level of play.

A drummer may have naturally good rhythm. It’s not what makes him a good drummer. The work the drummer puts into his technique, his ability to play with other musicians, and his understanding of music beyond his drum kit goes a lot farther towards making him a good drummer than a natural feel for keeping time.

The same goes for running backs. Coach Hoover’s site is probably the best online resource I have seen – hat tip to Smart Football’s Chris Brown – on football fundamentals. One of his posts is about the Balance and Touch Drill.

[vimeo http://www.vimeo.com/28995095 w=400&h=300]

Watch these drills and you will see that Silas Redd demonstrates this same technique.

Perhaps USC or Penn State doesn’t do these drills. Maybe Redd didn’t even see these drills in high school. This can be the case with running backs. Yet more often than we think, the skill fundamentals are often hidden within what appears to be natural athleticism.

“If You’re Looking For The Next Russell Wilson…”

February 15, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

It's okay to look for the "next Russell Wilson," you might not find him - but I bet you'll eventually find a prospect worth the search if you keep an open mind. tPhoto by Neal D. — It’s okay to look for the “next Russell Wilson,” you might not find him – but I bet you’ll eventually find a prospect worth the search if you keep an open mind. Photo by Neal D.

WARNING: This is a post is about to engage in a severe form of nitpicking of two quality analysts of football – one whom I know and respect greatly. I only know the true intention of one of the two statements below about NFL quarterback prospects and that one came with Doug’s response after originally posting this peice – and it wasn’t what I was thinking. Even before posting this addendum, I had a feeling these quotes didn’t match the thoughts of the speakers.

What was more important to me about these quotes wasn’t the thoughts behind the speakers, but the general attitude I’m seeing in other contexts. Attitudes that – regardless of the intent of these quotes – sound dismissive. And it’s the conclusions these statements appear to make that are as dead wrong as Marion Crane opting for the secluded Bates Motel rather than continuing to drive on a rainy night

If you’re looking for the next Russell Wilson this year, ask yourself this: How long did it take to find the “next Drew Brees?”

-Doug Farrar, Via Twitter (See note at end of post)

Russell Wilson, you’re not going to find Russell Wilsons every year. You’re not going to find Russell Wilsons every 20 years, 5-10 ½ quarterbacks that can play at the level, you’re just not going to find. We haven’t had them before. So if you count them, forget one hand. One finger, two fingers. I mean you don’t need more than a couple of fingers to figure that out.

So at the end of the day, don’t try to find that guy. He’s not there.

– Mel Kiper

I know Doug. He’s a terrific football analyst. He’s also right about looking for Russell Wilson in the respect that there’s a microscopic likelihood of finding a player of Wilson’s overall excellence this year. I just think his statement about how long it took to find Brees represents a thought among some to not to even look.

That’s how it sounds when you read Kiper’s comment. He begins with the same statement. Then he pulls the lever for the quote machine allegedly hidden somewhere in that coif [Suggestion to any marketing managers affiliated with ESPN: the next network commercial should have a “bald Kiper.” Make it happen. You’re welcome.] and he has dismissed any attempt out of hand. Next thing you know Drew Brees wasn’t drafted in 2001 and Doug Flutie wasn’t drafted in 1985.

Flutie doesn’t belong on this list, you say? Why not? No team gave him a long-term shot. They dismissed him because he was short. Brees and Wilson have proven it’s a mistake:

I’d keep watching the NFL and see quarterbacks whom I knew I was much better than. I didn’t ever feel I got a fair shot before. The game had changed down here. The success Steve Young had. Mark Brunell. Kordell. Steve McNair. You don’t think Brett Favre plays the way I do? All those guys paved the way for me to come back. In my heart, I’ve always known I could play in this league.

– Doug Flutie

The Curry Kirkpatrick article with this quote also provides a good one from the late John Butler, the former Bills GM who also drafted Drew Brees in San Diego:

Last year, Doug would come to me with dismay on his face,” says Bruce Smith, the Bills’ equally grizzled future-Fame defender. “He didn’t think he would get his shot. But I told him to hang in, it would come. I have to root for us old guys, you know. Now, I guess he figures, ‘What have I got to do?’ If it were me … I don’t know what I’d do. But he has to keep working to prove himself every day.”

So size never hasn’t mattered. Especially when he has disappeared. “With Doug, I guess some of it was out of sight, out of mind,” says Buffalo GM John Butler, almost sheepishly. “People search in vain for a guy like this to run your team, and he’s sitting up there in Canada all along. I guess we should all be ashamed. The league was cheated out of his greatness for eight years.

Let’s not forget Charlie Ward at Florida State, either. Many of my older and savvy readers will say that Ward probably wasn’t good enough to play in the NFL and I have also had my doubts over the years. But the only thing we can really say for sure about Ward is that no one gave him a real chance to prove it.

And at least among some in tight football circles, there aren’t open minds about quarterbacks under six-foot after Russell Wilson broke the rookie touchdown record and nearly overcame a bad half of Seattle football to reach the NFC Championship Game. That’s the real issue.

You don’t dismiss Russell Wilson and Drew Brees as generational anomalies, because it’s not just about short quarterbacks. It’s about quarterbacks who aren’t deemed worthy of a first-round pick and given a two- or three-year shot to be the franchise.

These players are considered generational anomalies in NFL terms for a variety of reasons:

Russell Wilson – 3rd round/too short, 2012
Tony Romo – UDFA, 2003
Drew Brees – 2nd round/too short, 2001
Tom Brady – 6th round, 2000
Marc Bulger – 6th round, 2000
Matt Hasselbeck, 6th round, 1998
Kurt Warner – UDFA, 1994
Jeff Garcia – UDFA/too short/too light/small school, 1994
Brett Favre – 2nd round (his coach said it would take a plane crash for him to put Favre in a game) 1991
Rich Gannon – 4th round, 1987

This list isn’t filled with great quarterbacks by any means, but all of them were good starters for a period of time. Some were MVPs and Super Bowl Champions. All of these players have made a Pro Bowl at least once and earned it.

They have also have led their teams to the playoffs. Only Romo, Wilson, and Garcia haven’t led their team to a Super Bowl. That’s 10 quarterbacks since 1987 – 5 in the past 12 years – for a league that has been dismissive of picks not earning the “franchise” selection.

Imagine if media, draft analysts, and most of all, NFL organizations were more open-minded about the idea of “looking” for potential every year rather than dismissing the possibility out of hand. The list would be a lot bigger.

I’m not saying greatness comes along every year at the quarterback position, but there’s a lot of ego behind the decision to spend a high draft pick on a quarterback and that influences the dismissive tone that’s even reflected in the media who interact with NFL organizations and get sucked into the same notion.

This is why when I hear the phrase, If you’re looking for the next Russell Wilson…[forget it] it bothers me. It’s nitpicking, because I know neither Farrar nor Kiper are truly this dismissive. However, the language is a reflection of the culture they’re observing .

If you’re an NFL team or analyst and you’re not looking for the next unsung quarterback with potential to develop into a winning starter then you’re not doing your job.

Note: As mentioned early and late in this piece I imagined the intent of Farrar’s statement was not a dismissive one and if anything, I was nitpicking the tone of the comments. Farrar explains that he wished he had an opportunity to respond, considering the brief nature of Twitter and the limited space for analysis. Here is Farrar’s explanation:

“Wilson was that rarest of all prospects – maxed out in all possible attributes, but one (height) – and had discovered best ways to overcome that liability. In addition, [Wilson] was given the advantage of a perfect scheme fit in Seattle, who runs frequent two-back sets out of power zone with a west coast passing game. [This] fit Wilson perfectly from N.C. State (WCO) and Wisconsin (a two-back zone offense). Everyone who interviewed him said that at 6-foot-2, he would have been a top-5 pick. In a way, he was rarer than Brees, who needed time.to develop. What I meant by that little Twitter quote was that in a QB class with a bunch of questions and no outliers, people will look for the outlier. And they’re hosed as a result.”

For analysis of skill players entering the NFL Draft, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 2/15/2013

February 14, 2013 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

If you see me when you see these three players (among others) you don’t need me to say any more. If you don’t, perhaps its time to starting downloading the RSP publication every April 1. Based on eight years of experience, you’ll thank me later. More about the RSP publication later. First, a ton of great Friday links.

On The Couch Podcast Thoughts: QBs-Combine-Your Mama

Who doesn't enjoy being On The Couch? Photo by spacemanor. — Who doesn’t enjoy being On The Couch? Photo by spacemanor.

This week’s On The Couch with Sigmund Bloom, Dane Brugler, and Lance Zierlein had some meaty stuff about the 2013 Draft. I recommend a listen. Here are some thoughts I had from the podcast now that I’m through with 90 percent of my film research for the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio:

This year’s QB class – I couldn’t agree more with Zierlein about this group. There is no one in the top half of most rankings that I’d be standing on the table telling management to draft. I felt that way about Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, and Wilson last year. In a perfect world, these QBs should be drafted where Wilson was in 2012 and Wilson in the first round. There’s a chance a team makes the right call with one of these 2013 guys, but I’d honestly rather take a guard…yes, a guard…over most of the consensus top 3-4 signal callers and I can tell you that’s unlikely to happen in the real NFL world. However, there are some intriguing backup-caliber/developmental projects available between rounds 3 and on the curb on Sunday evening of Day 3, who I’d rather make a low-money investment. More on that in April. Meanwhile, if you’re a regular reader but just emerged from a cave in the past two weeks, you can read more about my take on drafting quarterbacks here.
The Combine – I also have to give props to these guys for delineating where the Combine is helpful to folks who study players and where it isn’t. As writers/analysts like Josh Norris, Bloom, Brugler and I have been discussing off and on this week on Twitter, the combine puts a fine point on things. The debate seems to come among writers who are thinking the same thing but coming from two different directions to get there. There might be 20-30 guys I want to see very specific things about them at this event, that the limitations of scheme or opponents didn’t illustrate on tape. Considering I’ve studied multiple games for most of the 171 players I’ve watched, that’s a small but potentially important number.
Gun-to-The-Head/Put-It-On-My-Mama Picks – I enjoyed the picks Brugler and Zierlein mentioned as must-haves – especially Brugler’s of Cincinnati tight end Travis Kelce. The guy is an animal on the field and if you want a complete tight end capable of starting this year and thriving as productive cog as a receiver and blocker, Kelce is far and away my choice of a celebrated class. Give me Kelce – and I’ll disarm a bomb with a blindfold and a rusted-out, Swiss Army Knife. I also like the mention of cornerback Dee Milliner, who will be a pro’s pro.

The Overview Effect: The idea that once human beings can view Earth from a perspective away from the planet, the long-term effect will be as powerful as any in history. If you check out anything on this blog today, this is the top item. Once again a good link from my friend Sara

[youtube=http://youtu.be/qBA1bPcehlw]

Football Reads

The Five People You Meet In Indy – Funny-true piece on characters of the NFL Combine from Mike Tanier at Sports on Earth.
How Bill Walsh Evaluates Each Position – This has been making the rounds on Twitter for good reason. Enjoy.
The Ultimate Dinosaur Football Roster – Spencer Hall’s entertaining piece that brings out the seven-year-old in every guy who likes football and dinosaurs.

Thank You

Thanks to all of you who purchase the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication. Available for download every April 1 (no joke) for going on eight years, the RSP is an online .PDF publication devoted to the play-by-play study of NFL prospects at the offensive skill positions. The publication has a menu that bookmarks the document so you have two types of analysis. The first portion is a magazine-style, pre-draft analysis of 120-150 pages that includes position rankings, player comparisons, skill set analysis of each position, and sleepers.

Non-Football Reads

Why J Dilla May Be Jazz’s Latest Great Innovator – “He’s so important,” says jazz drummer Karriem Riggins, who collaborated extensively with Dilla and is himself a hip-hop producer. “Herbie Hancock and Tony Williams and Miles; he’s in the same category to me.”
The Best and Worst of the 2013 Grammys – Obviously I’m no purveyor of pop culture, but when three of my favorite artists get 45 seconds to pay tribute to a giant it’s worth noting why I don’t keep up any more. But it really has less to do with me liking their music. Imagine a football awards ceremony spending four hours celebrating agents, Tim Tebow, and Goodell, and 45 seconds to Adrian Peterson, Peyton Manning, and Robert Griffin.
Authenticity is The New Bullshit – H/T to Sigmund Bloom. I’ll be reading this a number of times.

Listens

The Mix: 50 Great Jazz Vocals – This isn’t like dynasty rankings, I could care less who is/isn’t on the list. Just some good music.
J. Dilla Ft. Dwele – Think Twice

Views

97-year-old 100-meter sprinter – Ida kicks ass.
Great visual presentation about child mortality – Entertaining, inspiring, and informative. Worth 2:50 of your time. H/T Joe Bryant.
Hockey Commercial – To my buddy Mike MacGregor, who I imagine acting this way in high school with his brother Monty.

Walk on the Wild Side: The Immeasurable Measure of Greatness

February 14, 2013 0 Comments read Walk on the Wild Side

What is great quarterbacking? Is it the bottom-line result or the skill to place teammates i position to execute? Agree with the latter, and Steve McNair fits the greatness label. (photo courtesy of Andrew Morrell Photography). — What is great quarterbacking? Is it the bottom-line result or the skill to place teammates in position to execute? Agree with the latter and Steve McNair fits the greatness label. (Andrew Morrell Photography).

“The single trait that separates great quarterbacks from good quarterbacks is the ability to make the great, spontaneous decision, especially at a crucial time. The clock is running down and your team is five points behind. The play that was called has broken down and 22 players are moving in almost unpredictable directions all over the field. This is where the great quarterback uses his experience, vision, mobility and what we will call spontaneous genius. He makes something good happen.”

– Bill Walsh

Like a play that has broken down and 22 players are moving in almost unpredictable directions all over the field, what I’m about to share with you may not seem to connect at first. But just trust me and keep doing what you’re supposed to do and I’ll get you where we need to be.

Wikipedia describes the movie 127 Hours as a “British-American biographical survival drama, co-written and produced by Danny Boyle. The film stars James Franco as real-life canyoneer Aron Ralston, who became trapped by a bolder in an isolated slot canyon in Blue John Canyon, southeastern Utah, in April 2003, and was eventually forced to amputate his own right arm to free himself.”

The site describes the events in the plot that lead to this decision:

As he resigns himself to the fact that he is on his own, he begins recording a video diary on his camera and using the larger blade on his pocket multi-tool to attempt to chip away at the boulder. He also begins rationing his water and food. As he realizes his efforts to chip away at the boulder are futile, he begins to attempt to cut into his arm, but finds his knife too blunt to break his skin. He them stabs his arm, but realizes he will not be able to cut through the bone. He finds himself out of water and is forced to drink his own urine . . . After five days, Ralston sees his unborn son, a blond boy of about 3, through a premonition. He discovers that by using his knowledge of torque and applying enough force to his forearm, he can break the radius and then the ulna bones. He gathers the will to do so and eventually severs his arm with the smaller, less dull knife on the multi-tool. He fashions a crude tourniquet out of the insulation for his CamelBak tube and uses a carabiner to tighten it. Aaron frees himself [nearly seven days later]. He wraps the stump of his arm and takes a picture of the boulder that trapped him as he leaves it behind. he then makes his way out of the canyon, where he is forced to rappel down a 65-foot rockface and hike several miles before, exhausted and covered in blood, he finally runs into a family on a day hike. The family sends for help and Ralston is evacuated by a Utah Highway Patriol helicopter.

A sanitized description of these events is a “harrowing tale of survival.” I prefer “spiritual terror.” Truth be told what hits the spot for me is “fucked-up beyond recognition.”

A quarterback doesn’t undergo physical, mental, emotional, and spiritual torture in a football game the way Aron Ralston did in Blue John Canyon. But when I read Bill Walsh’s description of great quarterbacking, I see the plot to 127 Hours. The sense of urgency, flashes of intuition and creativity, displays of grit and survival instincts all come from the same desire to avoid death – whether it’s one that’s literal or figurative.

With defeat as the classic death metaphor, a great quarterback plays within this context. He plays the game as if he’s pinned by a boulder and his team is the motley collection of tools available to hatch an escape. Some work as planned while many are rendered useless. More often than not, a great quarterback figures out how to re-purpose those tools into something that works.

Imagine this scenario for a quarterback in a must-win game for his team to stay alive: After his opponent goes up by a touchdown, his offense is pinned to the two yard line on the ensuing kickoff. The offense must drive the length of the field with 5:39 left to tie. The quarterback, who plays in an offense heavily restricted by his head coach except in two-minute drills, throws, runs, and improvises his way through an obstacle course of dangers:

Field conditions that would never meet NFL standards today.
A 3rd and two from their own 10.
A two-minute warning and barely in the opponent’s territory.
A sack.
A 3rd and 18 where the ball bounces off the ass of the receiver motioning across the shotgun formation.
A 3rd and five from the 5 with 0:42 left.

As receiver Mark Jackson describes the game-tying touchdown in the 1987 AFC Championship game at Cleveland Municipal Stadium (8:55 mark), he explains that the play was in no way designed for him to be the target.

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Difficult conditions and five near-defeat events over the course of a 98-yard drive didn’t keep John Elway from leading the Broncos to victory. But it’s not the victory that makes a quarterback great; it’s the ability to keep his team alive with his skill. Great players put teammates in position to make plays – even if his teammates don’t make them.

There are events beyond an individual’s control. Aron Ralston might have died if he didn’t encounter the family on a day hike.

Thirteen years after “The Drive,” the Tennessee Titans began a drive at their own 12 with 1:48 left and one timeout against the heavily-favored St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXIV after Isaac Bruce scores on a 73-yard play up the right flat to put the Rams up by a touchdown.

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McNair’s efforts didn’t have a happy ending like Elway’s. Still, the urgency, intuition, creativity, grit, and survival instincts are all there. When these pocket passers fall into the canyon during a game, they find ways to overcome their limitations and put their teams in position to win – different tools, same mindset.

One is unanimously considered great. The other is unanimously very good. Both possess what it took succeed in the NFL.

Examine every player through the lens of how well he places his teammates in position to succeed and greatness becomes relative to role. Marion Barber was a great closer. Craig Stevens is a great blocking tight end. Marques Colston is a great slot receiver in the Saints’ style of offense.

All three fail in some tangible skill and measure for their position.

NFL Draft analysis is often an extensive study of every tangible skill and measure a player has, but too often the cumulative result is how well a player colors inside the lines. Greatness is a consistent level of awareness and integration of skills that color outside the lines when needed.

The question is how to measure it.

Futures: Baylor WR Terrance Williams

February 13, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Baylor WR Kendall Wright is one of the top 2012 NFL Draft prospects at his position. However, college wide receivers tend to have a lot of little skills to master in order for their skills to translate to great pro production. Wright is no exception. — Terrance Williams broke Kendall Wright’s single season yardage record this year. See why I like his progression as an NFL prospect in my latest Futures column.

I like progress. Especially when that development is happening within a human being. With its high concentration of players to cover within a compressed period of practice time, one of the things sometimes lost in all-star game practice reports is the overarching performance that spans several days.

If there was a player who showed progress at the 2013 Senior Bowl it was Baylor wide receiver Terrance Williams. I didn’t see the first day of the South Team’s practice — it’s the one day where both rosters practice at different facilities on the same day — but based on the receiver’s performance and the praise Lions wide receivers coach Tim Lappanowas dishing his way in each drill, it was clear that Williams was one of the most improved players between Monday and Wednesday. If you had only seen reports about him after Tuesday’s practice, you would have concluded that he was having an inconsistent week.

Inconsistency plus sustained effort is the formula of an ugly process that leads to a beautiful result: personal growth. Williams’ growth as a player hasn’t been isolated to a few days of a college all-star game practice in late January. The Baylor star has demonstrated improvement with his game since I watched him last year.

With prototypical height and weight, the ability to catch the ball with his hands, and big-play ability in the vertical passing game and as an open-field runner, Williams is already considered one of the better wide receiver prospects in this draft class. But Williams’ development is an encouraging sign for the team that selects him in April. Here are four plays that illustrate the changes to Williams’ game. Some of these improvements are a greater consistency of execution compared to years past. I’m taking these examples from his performance in Baylor’s 52-45 overtime victory over Texas Tech in late November. Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

No-Huddle Series: LSU RB Spencer Ware (and 2015 Update)

February 10, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Running Back

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(Audio of this post’s highlight videos is NSFW)

“If I had to take a hit from anybody, it wouldn’t be Spencer Ware. He’s a guy who’s going to put everything into it and fight for that extra yard.”

– Josh Dworaczyk, LSU Tackle

[Author’s Note: For a look at Ware’s work with the Chiefs, scroll to the end] I was a Spencer Ware fan the moment I watched him out-play his teammate Stevan Ridley as a freshman against Texas A&M in the 2010-2011 Cotton Bowl. Ridley had 105 yards and a touchdown to Ware’s 102. The future Patriot’s starter needed 24 touches. Ware did it with 10.

Ware isn’t a breakaway threat; he’s a hot-running, helmet-crunching, break-your-back, ball-carrying warrior. He’s rugged, smart, and technically sound in most aspects of the game. If Seattle didn’t have a Robert Turbin, Ware is the back I’d want backing up Marshawn Lynch. If Mike Shanahan wants a lean, mean, running back depth chart, he can dispense with most of the backs behind Alfred Morris and opt for Ware.

If I were Jerry Jones – oh man, if I were Jerry Jones . . . I could fill three long columns that might cause half my readers to suffocate from laughter if I wrote about what I’d do if I were the Joan Rivers of NFL owners. Mr. Jones, Commissioner Goodell on Line 1, your plastic surgeon on Line 2, and Dez Bryant’s nanny on Line 3.

It might be easy for any of these teams to make drafting Ware a reality. Les Miles has his running back flavor of the month – all due respect to a talented Jeremy Hill – which is a reason that if I were Ware, I too would have left LSU before my senior year. Combine that dynamic with the depth of this running back class and Ware might not be drafted in April.

I can think of dozens of plays to show – several flashier than the three I have here. However, I couldn’t think of many better opponents than – according to Football Outsiders metrics – South Carolina’s 12th-ranked run defense. Here is one play that reveals aspects of Ware’s game that makes him an NFL-ready runner – regardless of when or if he’s drafted.

Running Back Effectiveness: Pad level > Speed

Speed is breath-taking and it scares defenses witless because one play can spell a six-point end of a series. But Al Davis’ “Speed Kills” mantra is dead, because it’s a lot like shark attacks: it scares more often than it kills. Just like the nature of sharks, we understand the nature of speed better than we used to.

Rarely in football can speed be the primary and secondary weapon of a running back. Once a player has the baseline level of speed required to compete in the NFL, there are several other factors that are far more important. Ask Arian Foster, Frank Gore, Marshawn Lynch, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Steven Jackson, Willis McGahee, Alfred Morris, and Michael Turner if breakaway speed is all-important – this list comprises eight of the top-24 runners in 2012 and three of the top-six performers.

Spencer Ware has the skill to join this list if he can make the most of his opportunities. Here’s Ware demonstrating the skill and maturity I’m talking about on a six-yard gain for the first down on a 3^rd and 1 from the Gamecocks’ 21 with 9:20 in the first quarter. The play begins as a 22-personnel, I-formation run versus nine defenders in the box (above). Ware begins the play by taking the exchange behind his fullback towards left guard.

The South Carolina defender’s penetration and attack of the fullback drops the lead blocker three yards behind the line of scrimmage. From this point of the exchange, Ware has about two steps to avoid the pileup about to happen in the backfield.

Ware bounces the run inside with a quick cut through the lane up the middle of the defense, gaining two yards untouched. As big as this hole appears now, South Carolina’s defensive front is filled with the type of athletes to close a crease right-quick and in a hurry.

Ware has to step over the rest of his jack-knifed fullback in the backfield as the defense begins to close the crease from three separate points. A first down is likely, due to the width of the initial opening towards the line of scrimmage. However, within two steps Ware and these three defenders should meet at the 20 and good pad level will be essential for the LSU Tiger to get the job done.

Ware gets his pads lower than the oncoming defender and at a depth that allows him to squirt under the front. The point isn’t to break a long play as much as avoid enough contact to ensure a first down. It’s surprising how many good college backs forget this point and lean too hard on their strength or speed.

Ware ducks under the second level of the defense – five defenders total – to get the first down. This is the point where I expected to play to end, but Ware is only a third of the way through. His pad level, leg drive, balance, and strength gets him through the the other side of this pile of future NFL defenders.

Ware emerges from the four-defender cave with good body lean down field and in position to gain extra yards despite three of these four defenders still holding onto him. With a 5-11, 223-pound frame, Ware keeps his legs moving and earns three extra yards, extricating himself from two of the three defenders before the defensive back hits the runner head-on at the 15.

Quick feet. Pad level. Balance. Strength. Second effort. All components of an excellent short-yardage runner against one of the best defenses in college football. My colleague Ryan Lownes mentioned on Twitter that he sees an athlete of Rudi Johnson’s ilk – not a breakaway runner, but a player capable of grinding it out as a bell cow back. I think if you combine the styles of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Marshawn Lynch, it captures a lot of the good that is in Spencer Ware’s game. Of course, name-dropping Marion Barber may suffice:

[youtube=http://youtu.be/iqmIby3LYkQ]

2015 Update: Due to a season-ending injury as a Seahawk and two off-field incidents that earned him a ticket out of town (despite a scout telling me that the team really liked him as a tailback), it took longer than anyone might imagine for Ware to display his talents. But Ware earned a shot in relief of Charcandrick West against the Chargers and he looked much like the player mentioned above.

Remember this play from LSU?

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Looks a lot like this play with the Chiefs

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Although not exact, look at the recklessness at the goal line to vault and/or spin off contact at LSU and then with the Chiefs.

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There’s also that combination of knowing when to be patient behind the line of scrimmage and balancing his wiggle with straight-up power to attack defenses once into the crease.

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The Chargers defense is a weak unit, but it’s still a professional grade defense and Ware looked every bit like the player who arguably out-played Stevan Ridley at LSU.

Don’t be surprised if Ware earns a shot to split time with West, if not usurp West’s role. The schedule is favorable for the Chiefs ground game, Ware is fresh, and West’s hamstring injury could give Andy Reid an excuse to give Ware an extended tryout for the lead role.

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2015 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.