Posts tagged 2013 RSP

Tulane QB Ryan Griffin and The Disconnect Between Evaluating and Drafting Talent

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Is QB Mike Glennon a draft-not-to-lose pick? If he goes in the first two rounds, I think so. Photo by Akulawolf.
Is QB Mike Glennon a draft-not-to-lose pick? If he goes in the first two rounds, I think so. Photo by Akulawolf.

The flavor of Texas versus Nation week may well have been 6-4, 216-pound Tulane quarterback Ryan Griffin. NFL Draft analyst Dane Brugler was among several who believe Griffin’s stock is on the rise to the point that he should hear his name called in April. Compared to the Geno Smiths, Matt Barkleys, Mike Glennons, and Tyler Wilsons of this prospect class, the changing perception of Griffin’s draft grade seems like an afterthought. The fact that Griffin served as the front man for a 2-10 squad doesn’t  help.

It’s one thing for a non-quarterback talent like Matt Forte, a Tulane alum playing for a routinely over-matched team to earn a high draft grade, but quarterbacks with losing records aren’t at the top of most draft boards. Still,  we hear every year from the likes of those who study the game at the front lines that if the first trait you hear about a college quarterback is that he’s a winner and a leader it means that he can’t play at the NFL level.

Eric Crouch. Kellen Moore. Tim Tebow. Ken Dorsey. Kliff Kingsbury.

The list of winning college quarterbacks with no NFL game is long. It’s also filled with passers who possess NFL potential, but their college win-loss record dampens their reputation, lessens their exposure, and diminishes their draft stock. Based on the way reps are given to NFL quarterbacks in many organizations, the lower the draft pick, the less likely that prospect sees meaningful time to develop his game.

It’s a processes that skews the dynamic that the better NFL talent is at the top of the draft board. Don’t get me wrong, I believe if every team had open competitions among quarterbacks on NFL rosters that the higher draft picks would tend to perform better than the lower picks, but I believe it wouldn’t be as dominant an edge as the current data suggests.

The reason is that positional need and a prospect’s attributes away from the field appeal to draft-day decision makers just enough that skill and talent aren’t the only factors involved in a player’s evaluation. Sometimes these other factors are important, but I also believe they often mislead decision makers.

The Disconnect Between Evaluating and Draft Talent

Play fantasy football for any length of time and you learn there is difference between evaluating talent and drafting talent. One is about identifying who is worth picking. The other is about knowing when to pull the trigger. As much as the media likes to combine the two when they use on-air analysts like Mel Kiper, Mike Mayock, and Todd McShay, there are two separate skills that often generate more conflict than congruence.

This is a major reason why I don’t do mock drafts. I don’t interview prospects. I don’t have an organizational understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of evaluators. I don’t know the total football philosophy, teaching, and management styles of coaches or the inner dynamics of the players on every team.  What I can see and understand is on-field behavior.

The way some NFL executives value win-loss records, they may think a 2-10 team like Tulane looks like this. Photo by Tulane Public Relations.
The way some NFL executives value win-loss records, they may think a 2-10 team like Tulane looks like this. Photo by Tulane Public Relations.

There is no greater example of the disconnect that can exist between scouting and drafting talent than at quarterback. Alex Marvez reports that NFL scouts and management are divided on the importance a quarterback prospect’s win-loss record. Marvez recounting of the Broncos’ inner debate of the merits of Jay Cutler, Matt Leinart, and Vince Young is a great example.

I evaluated all three players. Young was the most physically talented, but he played in an offense that did not require him to develop the craft of quarterbacking from the pocket. Leinart had a good start on the craft needed for the NFL game, but he lacked the physical talent. Cutler had the best combination of athleticism, passing skill, and mental toughness on the board.

I had Cutler as my top quarterback, Young No.2, and Matt Leinart as an overrated prospect – essentially tied with Bengals backup Bruce Gradkowski – at No.3. Read Marvez’s piece above and you’ll see that my perspective that the combination of physical talent, positional skill, and on-field behavior mirrors the takes of many NFL scouts. However, the 2006 NFL draft order for the three was Young first, Leinart second, and Cutler third.

It’s not much of a coincidence that Young’s team won the national championship, Leinart’s team won a national championship the year before and then faced Young’s team in the 2005-2006 title game, and Cutler was on a bottom-dwelling SEC team. Scouts are worker bees; they aren’t the major voices in most NFL war rooms. The general managers and executives are the ones who tend to place the greatest emphasis on win-loss record.

“In many respects, you’re going to be asking him to carry your team in the NFL,” [former Colts GM Bill] Polian told FOXSports.com. “If he can’t carry his team at the collegiate level, which is quite a bit lower in terms of the level of competition, what makes you think he can do it at this level?”

Polian makes a good point and it’s one that I think is lost on many – possibly Polian himself. I admit that may be parsing the words of the former Colts GM too finely here; Polian may believe that “carrying a team” is more than just a winning record. At the same time, I do think his response and Marvez’s report illustrates that win-loss record carries too heavy a weight in the warrooms of NFL teams.

Re-Thinking the “Winner” Concept

Greg Cosell, the producer at NFL Films, wrote a thought-provoking conversation starter about why he thinks the NFL culture needs to re-think the “winner” concept. I’m continuing that conversation here, because I believe Polian’s idea of “carrying a team” is the best place to start. If NFL executives do a better job of defining how a quarterback carries a team, they will do a better job of integrating talent evaluation into the draft-day process.

Returning to the 2006 NFL Draft of Young-Leinart-Cutler, we would later learn that Young – who many would say “carried” the Longhorns to a BCS title – lacked the maturity and work ethic to cross the great emotional divide between being a talented pro prospect and becoming a consistent, productive pro player. Leinart – a Heisman Trophy Winner – had many in the media drawing parallels to Tom Brady’s game, but he also had difficulties crossing the same divide as Young.  Leinart and Young were on rosters with a lot of future NFL players.

Cutler is the one college quarterback who consistently showed he could carry his team against opponents that outmatched his teammates. Photo by Jeffrey Beall.
Cutler is the one college quarterback who consistently showed he could carry his team against opponents that outmatched his teammates. Photo by Jeffrey Beall.

The same can’t be said of Cutler. Vanderbilt’s notable NFL players from the Cutler era include Jovan Haye, Earl Bennett, and Jonathan Goff.  Texas and USC’s list is staggering by comparison:

  • Shaun Cody
  • Mike Patterson
  • Mike Williams
  • Frostee Rucker
  • Reggie Bush
  • Deuce Lutui
  • Steve Smith
  • Winston Justice
  • Ryan Kalil
  • Terrell Thomas
  • Fred Davis
  • Chilo Rachal
  • Sam Baker
  • Lawrence Jackson
  • Keith Rivers
  • Sedrick Ellis
  • Roy Williams
  • Nathan Vasher
  • Bo Scaife
  • Derrick Johnson
  • Dave Thomas
  • Cedric Griffin
  • Michael Huff
  • Brian Robison
  • Michael Griffin
  • Aaron Ross
  • Jamaal Charles
  • Jermichael Finley

Cutler was also the subject of another intense debate during that 2006 NFL Draft. The Titans executives, coaching staff, and scouts each had different favorites. Owner Bud Adams clearly wanted Young. The scouts wanted Cutler. The coaches were split. Norm Chow, Leinart’s former offensive coordinator and the Titans coordinator at the time, wanted his former pupil. To the best of my knowledge, Fisher’s favorite has never been made public. However, it was divulged on draft day that then-Broncos coach Mike Shanahan called Fisher the night before and asked him about Jay Cutler. Shanahan told the media that Fisher believed Cutler had everything you wanted from a quarterback. The Broncos traded up for Cutler and while he has his flaws, he has been far and away the most successful of the 2006 class and still has potential for a better career ahead.

When I watched Young, Leinart, and Cutler, the player I thought who did the best job of “carrying” his team was Cutler – no contest. The reason is that I define the concept of carrying a team as putting players in position to succeed regardless of the level of competition or the data in the box score – including the scoreboard. Leinart had surrounding talent who routinely put the USC quarterback in position to succeed more than the other way around.

One of the big reasons I had Steve Smith as my No.3 receiver prospect in 2007’s draft class was that he demonstrated NFL-caliber athleticism, technique, and awareness in situations that his quarterback Leinart created when his execution was not NFL caliber. Smith carried Leinart as much or more in the passing game than Leinart carried Smith.

I’d argue more.

Despite great surrounding talent, there was no question that Young carried his offense at Texas. However, Young was thrust into a pro game that expected him to acquire and refine skills that were not the strength of his game. My buddy Sigmund Bloom has wondered how Young may have fared if his introduction to the NFL game was through a spread/pistol scheme that Robert Griffin has in Washington. I think it’s a fair question, but just six years ago the NFL was still fitting square pegs into round holes.

Drafting to Win vs. Drafting Not to Lose

The change in mentality is still slow because present decisions seemed to be reinforced by past history. There’s an urgency for teams in need of a quarterback to select one in the first round despite the fact that the failure rate remains high. ESPN’s Mike Tirico asked Bill Parcells during his inaugural Draft Confidential special in 2011 why teams continued to draft quarterbacks in the first round despite the failure rate and the Hall of Famer said that every other team is doing it, and the fear of not getting one drives you to do the same.

Former NFL.com and NFL Network analyst Chad Reuter, a talent evaluator with economic training who has provided analysis to NFL teams, gives even better explanation of this dynamic:

The fear of not finding a quarterback certainly comes into play for most teams. Let’s face it, coaches without a strong quarterback are probably going to be looking for work sooner than later. I have a mathematical background so I have a bit different way of looking at this problem that a lot of coaches and football guys like Parcells may not. My research into drafting quarterbacks reveals a second-round prospect’s chances of becoming a solid starter is around 20 percent, maybe a little higher for earlier picks in the round.  But the likelihood of a second-round pick at another position becoming a true difference-maker is probably 50-50 at best.

So, if you value a QB 3-4 more times than a typical position player it is understandable to me why people will take that 20 percent chance on finding a quarterback . . . If somebody says, “I’ll flip a coin and I’ll give you $100 if you guess correctly,” you expect a value of $50 because you have a 50-50 shot of getting it right. If someone else says, “If you cast this die, and you roll a one then I’ll give you $400,” then that expected value will be $66.66  (1 out of 6 x $400). The math of it makes sense for teams that believe the QB is worth the chance.

That’s not exactly what Parcells was saying, but that’s what most coaches would tell you if they had the mathematical background.A 20 percent hit rate in the second round isn’t very good, but it continues to get worse and worse as the draft goes on. The Bradys — and even the Hasselbecks — come few and far late in the draft. So I can understand why teams take the chance.

The math makes sense to the degree that it explains the results of the current decisions that NFL teams are making. However, that math doesn’t tell why a second-around prospect has less of a chance being a difference maker than the first-rounder or why the Bradys and Hasselbecks are rare. The standard explanation is that better talent tends to be drafted earlier than lesser talent.

The problem I have with this explanation is that the teams experiencing success often have game changers who were exceptions to the rule: Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, and Russell Wilson are three examples. The greater the exception, the more dramatic the advantage. Playing the percentages may keep a team from making draft-day mistakes that compound with each pick, but it can also keep a team from winning big.

Organizations often use the data “not to lose.” The problem with making these decisions based on this data is that when a team fails on these “not-to-lose,” first-round quarterbacks  it has committed to a three- or four-year process of giving a player a chance and/or a huge sum of money. Considering the career span of the average NFL player is still around three years and also the approximate length of a team’s playoff window, missing on a high-round quarterback and playing out the string of “appropriate development time” is a huge setback.

Based on what I believe about Matt Barkley and Mike Glennon’s game, selecting them in the first two rounds of the 2013 NFL Draft will be a decision two teams will make “not to lose.” They fit all the safe bullet points in terms of physical potential, system, and basic skills at the position. Neither possess the slam-dunk, early-round skills, in-game performance, and potential to put their players in position to win on as consistent a number of snaps as I value. The problem with making these decision based on this data is that when a team fails on this “not to lose” early-round passer is that it has committed to a three- or four-year process for a lot more money than taking a lower-round talent with equal or greater potential, but less marquee value.

Teams also miss on additional talent that can be parlayed into acquiring a quarterback. Trades for marquee quarterbacks may be rare, but you can’t tell me that the Vikings and Broncos talent weren’t a draw for Brett Favre and Peyton Manning. Quality attracts quality.

Considering need is fine, but I believe a team should always build on talent. If the talent fits the need – great, but the most important skill that evaluators and executives may need to develop is how to resist the pressure of succumbing to need over talent and fooling themselves into thinking they haven’t.

Whether I’m right or wrong about Barkley or Glennon is not the point. The disconnect between scouting and drafting  is apparent and it will continue even if Russell Wilson’s selection and open opportunity to earn the job in Seattle is a potential glimmer of change. However, Wilson was a winner at N.C. State and Wisconsin. Marvez’s piece shows that there is a belief  if the quarterback isn’t succeeding when it comes to the bottom line then it’s a red flag for his NFL potential.

Fascinating that on the one hand football is the ultimate team sport, but no individual is more celebrated and coveted in any sport than quarterback. NFL team and personnel believe that you can’t win without one, yet there are plenty of superstar passers who lacked the surrounding talent to get the job done. It’s not a one  or the other proposition.

Why Ryan Griffin is a More Appropriate “Not to Lose” Option With “Draft to Win” Characteristics

Tulane’s Ryan Griffin is the example of a talented quarterback lacking the surrounding talent to elevate his draft status. Unlike Jay Cutler, Griffin lacks the mobility to make big plays with his legs or the extraordinary arm talent to make pinpoint throws from corners that defenses paint him into. Griffin is a classic pocket passer.

Some say that the pocket passer is dying in the NFL. I think that’s a melodramatic statement. A truer reality is that the NFL is becoming more open minded to schemes that allow mobile quarterbacks to continue using their skills within a complementary offensive  framework. Pocket passing isn’t dying as much as its monopoly is breaking up.

Griffin may never get the opportunity as a late-round pick to thrive like the marquee names of his 2013 draft class, but I think Griffin – even with his flaws – has shown enough that if he were at USC, Maryland, or Arkansas, “earning a draft pick” wouldn’t be a part of the conversation this late in the process. What Griffin’s game displays that’s as good or better than the likes of Barkley or Glennon is his in-game acumen, pocket presence, maneuverability, and accuracy down field.

These are skills that if you read some of the commentary from those reporting at Texas v. Nation, it sounds as if Griffin vastly improved in these areas since the end of the season or displayed skills he hasn’t shone before. This notion that Griffin is a surprise to those who truly study prospects is inaccurate. Brugler studies players year-round, I doubt his reporting was based on being “surprised,” as much as following what he’s heard from scouts. I think many of those surprised by Griffin were those who overlooked the Tulane quarterback because he plays on a struggling team and isn’t at the top of the draft day radar.

Here are five plays that demonstrate how Griffin’s skills aren’t isolated to the effects of some magical elixir he imbibed from the Great Gazoo.

Pre-and Post-Snap Reads

The game I’m using features Tulane against the University of Houston. Because the Cougars built an early lead, Tulane abandoned the run early and they only tried one play action pass the entire game. The commanding lead also gave Houston the opportunity to blitz Griffin, which creates a good environment to observe a pocket passer under duress.

Tulane uses a short passing game – a lot of 10 and 20 personnel shotgun with swing passes to backs and short perimeter routes to receivers complemented with crossing routes. However, Griffin is also effective as a deep passer. His first foray down field in this game came on 1st and 10 from the Houston 41 from a 1×2 receiver, 20 personnel shotgun set with 13:01 in the half.

This is the pre-snap look Griffin has, the safety rotation just before the snap, and Griffin's resulting read.
This is the pre-snap look Griffin has, the safety rotation just before the snap, and Griffin’s resulting read.

Houston’s initial alignment is two safeties high, but late in the pre-snap phase the safeties rotate to a single-high look. Griffin notes this change and as he takes the snap and drops back, he looks to the opposite hash where the safety is creeping up.

Griffin reads the safety shift, which means the safety as the slot man. The LB takes the RB flanking Griffin's left. The outside corners have the perimeter receivers one-on-one and the safety over top as center field.
Griffin reads the safety shift, which means the safety as the slot man. The LB takes the RB flanking QB’s left. The outside corners have the perimeter receivers one-on-one and the safety over top as center field.

This is a good post-snap read and Griffin understands that the rotation of the safety from the right flat to the middle gives his single receiver running a streak up the right flat a one-on-one opportunity that is the quarterback’s best chance to hit a big play. Griffin finishes a decent, three-step drop from the gun and delivers the ball 38 yards down field from his release point to the receiver’s reception point at the Houston 10.

Griffin's receiver has great vertical separation on the corner. The lack of horizontal separation from the center fielder is Griffin's doing.
Griffin’s receiver has great vertical separation on the corner. The lack of horizontal separation from the center fielder is Griffin’s doing.

It’s not as apparent as the future shots will make it, but Griffin throws this pass short. The receiver is already turning his shoulders back to the quarterback as he’s tracking the ball and it’s this shoulder turn that is a sure sign that the ball is late or under thrown. I’ll show why the short throw is not an issue of anticipation, but first let’s continue to examine the end result. Griffin’s throw is not only forcing the receiver to slow his stride, but it’s giving that safety the angle to break up the pass that a better throw would otherwise prevent.

The receiver should have caught this pass, but the quarterback should have made the catch uncontested.
The receiver should have caught this pass, but the quarterback should have made the catch uncontested.

GriffinA5

GriffinA6

As the ball arrives behind the receiver, the safety knocks the ball away from the WR’s grip. If Griffin throws this ball 2-4 yards further down field, the receiver catches the ball in stride behind both the corner and safety, and has a strong chance of scoring. The issue isn’t the timing, but the distance. However, you’ll see later that arm strength isn’t Griffin’s problem. On this play, it’s his feet.

When Griffin finishes his drop and hitches forward his feet are nearly three yards apart before he steps into the throw.
When Griffin finishes his drop and hitches forward his feet are  too far apart before he steps into the throw.
Stepping into the throw and widening the gap further, Griffin is unable to generate the power through his hips that he needs to throw the ball down field.
Stepping into the throw and widening the gap further, Griffin is unable to generate the power through his hips that he needs to throw the ball down field.

The pass should have arrived somewhere between the six and eight yard line for the receiver to continue his pace down field, run through the arrive pass, and catch it in stride beyond the defense. Although this is a mistake that costs Tulane a touchdown, Griffin comes back to the same receiver on the very next play and finds him on a slant for 26-yard play.

On the next play, Houston rotates his safeties in the opposite direction, opening the slant behind the defender creeping up.
On the next play, Houston rotates his safeties in the opposite direction, opening the slant behind the defender creeping up.

Griffin reads the safety working towards the box and hits the receiver on the slant breaking behind the defender – the same receiver he under threw the play before.  What I like about this play is the eye control to manipulate the defender.

Griffin knows he want to hit the slant, behind the safety, but holds that safety to the flat in the box with his eyes on the back.
Griffin knows he want to hit the slant, behind the safety, but holds that safety to the flat in the box with his eyes on the back.

Better yet, Griffin’s shoulders and knees are pointed to the back, further selling the swing pass. A beat later, the ball is out of Griffin’s hand and the safety has reacted to the back, opening a window behind him for the ball to reach the slanting receiver.

Oops.
Oops.
Pass arrives in stride and with a ton of open field ahead.
Pass arrives in stride and with a ton of open field ahead.

Pocket Presence and Footwork

Although Griffin’s feet weren’t in great position to throw the touchdown at the top of the second quarter, this 2nd-and-even pass with 1:55 in the third quarter from a 2×2 receiver, 10 personnel shotgun set is all about a players ability to climb the pocket and keep his feet in position to make an accurate throw down field.

Griffin's eventual target is the receiver slot right up the seam for a touchdown, which he makes happen when he buys time in the pocket.
Griffin’s eventual target is the receiver slot right up the seam for a touchdown, which he makes happen when he buys time in the pocket.

GriffinC2

Griffin finishes a five-step drop as the right defensive tackle stunts around right end and the left defensive end work around the left tackle. The receiver slot right is still covered at the hash. After Griffin’s first hitch, the quarterback’s feet are spaced at an appropriate width to deliver the ball with distance and power.

GriffinC3

Better yet, Griffin feels the pressure from his blind side, climbs the pocket with two hitch steps and maintains good width with his feet to deliver the deep ball.

GriffinC4

Although Griffin’s foot width as he delivers the ball is nearly as wide as the previous deep throw, the fact that he finished his drop with a narrow foot width gives the quarterback more control as he hitches forward and begins his release. The ball travels 50 yards from Griffin’s release point to the receiver’s reception point – a 41-yard pitch and catch for a 51-yard score.

GriffinC5

The Tulane receiver lost the ball from a punch-out at the seven, but recovers it in the end zone for the touchdown. Great throw from Griffin, who maneuvers the pocket and keeps his feet under him.

I also like that Griffin has the maturity to know when to buy time and when to throw the ball away. On the first play of Tulane’s initial possession of the fourth quarter, pressure up the middle flushes Griffin left and forces the quarterback to throw the ball away. On the next play – a 2nd-and-10 pass with 14:09 left in the game from a 2×2 receiver, 10-personnel – Griffin feels pressure once again, but this time has room to hang in the pocket and make a play.

GriffinD1

After a five-step drop, Griffin has two shallow crossers working open and an intermediate cross developing as both edge rushers get around the corner.

GriffinD2

Griffin does a fine job of reducing his shoulder from the outside pressure and climbs the pocket with his eyes down field.
Griffin does a fine job of reducing his shoulder from the outside pressure and climbs the pocket with his eyes down the field.
Griffin finishes climbing with his feet in position to deliver an accurate throw.
Griffin finishes climbing with his feet in position to deliver an accurate throw.
GriffinD5
Griffin delivers the intermediate cross 17 yards down field to the same flat, hitting the receiver in stride.

Arm Strength

Griffin lacks an elite arm, but he has a starter-caliber arm right now with room to improve that arm strength as he adds more weight to that 216-pound frame that was listed at 206 pounds at the beginning of his senior season. This deep ball on a 2nd-and-three from the Tulane 41 with 10:55 left is a good example. Tulane runs a 10 personnel shotgun set with receivers 1×3 and Griffin’s target is the outside receiver on the trips side.

GriffinE1

Griffin takes three hitch steps to climb the pocket between edge rushers.
Griffin takes three hitch steps to climb the pocket between edge rushers.
Griffin looks off the safety and has his feet under him to execute a good throw.
Griffin looks off the safety and has his feet under him to execute a good throw.
Griffin gets the ball over 50 yards down field from the far hash to the near flat.
Griffin gets the ball over 50 yards down field from the far hash to the near flat.

The Tulane quarterback hits the receiver in the hands 50 yards down field, but the receiver drops the ball because he lays out for it early. If the receiver runs through ball rather than leaps for it at the 47 he probably catches this in stride.

If I’m seeing these skills from Griffin it’s likely another NFL team likes what they see from the Tulane product. Griffin will have to do a better job of reading man-under and other variations of zone. He’ll also have to curb his desire to power the ball into tight spaces or over linebackers in coverage who have good drop depth. None of his issues are fatal flaws. The only one may be his win-loss record and the mountain he may have to climb as a late-round pick or free agent.

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 2/1/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
Here's a Super Bowl moment embedded in the hype worth remembering. Photo by Mark Humphrey.
Here’s a Super Bowl moment embedded in the hype worth remembering. Photo by Mark Humphrey.

Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl (10 hours of pre-game over analysis of things like Ray Lewis’s pre-game dance, a hangnail on Joe Flacco’s non-throwing pinkie finger). Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl (Have a drink). Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl (Inject a quart of nacho cheese.) Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl (Look forward to commercials as a break from hyper-analysis of the metaphorical nature of the image in Colin Kaepernick’s tattoo near his inside left bicep). Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl (Based on endorsements all former players and coaches must be overweight and flaccid.) Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl (Wait! It’s Fred Flintstone eating Applebees with the bachelor!) Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl (Need more beer to calm myself from the frenzy of hyper screen cuts, hyper analysis, hyper Tweeting, hyper orgy of consumption.) Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl (Lost my Valentine’s Day budget on ridiculous prop bets).

Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl (Hoping Beyonce’s skirt malfunctions since you know Valentine’s Day will be a fiasco after losing ridiculous prop bet.) Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl (I can’t see the game because all my friends who don’t know shit about football are over here with takes that I think would get me fired – but in all likelihood a bigger gig if I wrote 500-word columns and Tweet-bombed readers into oblivion 18 hours a day). Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl (I could only write 500 word columns once a week if I Tweet-bombed people 18 hours a day – hmmm, but twice the readers? Super!)  Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl (Based on the state of water cooler journalism, perhaps it doesn’t matter). Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl (Patrick Willis just ripped Anquan Boldin’s arm off). Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Did a baby day trader just try to make it rain from his bassinet – ooooh, that’s cuter than road kill). Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl (Boldin is probable to return in the next series). Super Bowl. Super Bowl Super Bowl. Super Bowl (Injury lawyers have Boldin on their 2018 calendar to speed dial him). Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl (I hear gunshots. Is Canada invading? No honey, that’s just our neighbors having target practice in their backyard. In our subdivision? That, or they are ending an argument. Or was that the sound of Saints player with a rifle pointed at Roger Goodell? Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl. Super Bowl.

What? It’s Super Bowl – I’m drunk, over-stimulated,  lost my money, lost any chance at scoring on Valentine’s Day, and my team lost the game.

Enjoy your Super Bowl Weekend.

Listens-Duane Allman+Wes Montgomery+Ravi Shankar = Derek Trucks

[youtube=http://youtu.be/N65cP52NC8s]

Fitting equation from a listener commenting on this video on YouTube. I first heard of Trucks when I was 17 and visiting Savannah for concert I’d be performing with a bunch of other high school musicians. I was on River Street with my buddies and there was a sign near the outdoor stage noting that the Derek Trucks band would be playing there. My eventual college roommate raved about this little kid-guitarist back then.  In hindsight he was quite a talent scout. So you know, he became a future CEO of a major record label.  Amazing who you meet in life.

Football Reads

Non-Football Reads

By Fikret Onal

Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/SP4MgE6EmJE]

“Bandit” wants to train with the big boys. Innocence and persistence at its finest.

Thanks

Made it this far?

Its always good to get new followers at the blog and on Twitter and there are a lot of new readers. If you’re new to the RSP blog here are some links that I think will help you learn what you’ll get here:

  • 2013 NFL  Draft Analysis – This link as a running collection of analysis I’ve written – including Sr. Bowl coverage.
  • 2012 NFL Draft Analysis – Just like above, but for 2012.
  • What is the RSP? – New to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio? I have an annual publication that is available for download April 1 and available for prepayment now. This is why folks come here.
  • 2013 RSP Players – Players I’ve studied for the April publication – a running list.

Every Friday, I post links to football and non-football reads as well as links to photos, music, and videos that catch my eye while I’m surfing. This week will have a more decided Sr. Bowl theme. If you’re new, I suggest you follow the blog and either signup for email notifications for content or add to your RSS Feed. And thanks to my loyal readers for the views, the feedback, and those who demanded I offer a prepayment option for the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.

As Martha Stewart says, “Peace-out, Homey.”

No-Huddle Series: TE Justice Cunningham

0 Comments read Players, Tight End
The "Old Ball Coach" has some great athletes at defensive end in Columbia, but there's an intriguing end on offense worth checking out. Photo by Keith Allison.
The “Old Ball Coach” has some great athletes at defensive end in Columbia, but there’s an intriguing end on offense worth checking out. Photo by Keith Allison.

All qualifiers about injury, fit, and professionalism aside, the 2013 class of tight end prospects could be the deepest I have ever seen. It would only be a mild surprise if three years from now there is a tight end from this group who becomes a valued contributor for an NFL team and began his career as a rookie free agent. A player who folks might be sleeping on is South Carolina’s Justice Cunningham.

His 2012 stats are modest: 23 catches, 324 yards, and no touchdowns. In fact, 2012’s yardage total exceeds his 2009-2011 output by 67 yards.  He has only scored once in his career.

This is one example among many that illustrates why the box scores don’t reveal the depth and potential of a player. Cunningham has a lot of tools to become a valuable contributor in an NFL offense. At 6-4, 264 lbs., Cunningham is a good blocker in the running and passing game with room to get better. He has quick hands and feet, he delivers a punch, and he has the strength and effort to work on an island against future NFL-caliber athletes at linebacker and defensive end. This is where Cunningham has earned his scholarship for Steve Spurrier.

It’s the tight end’s receiving skills – an underutilized resource in Columbia, South Carolina – that could change in the NFL. I was going to show you a 29-yard reception on a wheel route versus LSU where he works between two zone defenders up the left sideline and makes a leaping grab then nearly scores with an athletic play up the sideline. It’s a display that I believe projects well to the NFL game.

A funny thing happened while searching for a better quality clip of this play to use here: I found better plays on the same highlight reel from the link above. The best one may well be the last, a seam route against Arkansas where the quarterback throws him open in the way Drew Brees loves to throw open his tight ends in New Orleans.

This play combines aspects of his game that I think makes him an underrated prospect: speed to stretch the seam, skill against tight coverage, and athleticism to adjust to the football with is back to the quarterback. Remember, Cunningham is a prospect unlikely to hear his name called in April any time before the late afternoon of the draft’s third day – if that.  A few years down the line, this kind of skill could prove to be a great bargain compared to the likes of Tyler Eirfert, Zach Ertz, or Dion Sims.

Cunningham begins the play with an outside release and then works under the Arkansas linebacker to get up the seam.
Cunningham begins the play with an outside release and then works under the Arkansas linebacker to get up the seam.

South Carolina has a rep for being a pass-happy system under Steve Spurrier and it is true that the Ole’ Ball Coach is an aggressive play caller. At the same time, the Gamecocks employ a lot of 11 personnel and 12 personnel sets. Cunningham executes a nice hesitation just after his initial release to bait the linebacker into thinking this could be a cross or a hook underneath him.

Justice's head, knees, and arms all indicate he's about to break inside or hook under the linebacker.
Justice’s head, knees, and arms all indicate he’s about to break inside or hook under the linebacker.

There is no drumming of the arms, the head is down,and the hips are bent just enough along with the angle of his turn inside the hash that the linebacker stays on his toes to anticipate an underneath route from Cunningham. This is enough for the tight end to accelerate inside the linebacker and get 20 yards down field to make a play on the football.

Cunningham has inside position as the ball arrives. It doesn't look like a lot of separation, but you'll see soon why this is an NFL-caliber play.
Cunningham has inside position as the ball arrives. It doesn’t look like a lot of separation, but you’ll see soon why this is an NFL-caliber play.

As the ball arrives over his inside shoulder, Cunningham makes a full extension for the ball. His ability to to lay out and make this adjustment at the last moment is part and parcel of good NFL tight end play in the passing game. I also like the fact that he continues to run though the pass until the last second.

Cunningham makes the catch over his shoulder with his arms fully extended - a play many good college wide receivers fail to make.
Cunningham makes the catch over his shoulder with his arms fully extended – a play many good college wide receivers fail to make.

The best part of this play is not what I just showed you. A closer look from the red zone reveals a fuller dimension of what makes this an NFL-caliber reception.

Cunningham works inside the linebacker as the quarterback begins his release. For the quarterback to make this throw with this view of the action he has to have confidence in his receiver in tight coverage.
Cunningham works inside the linebacker as the quarterback begins his release. For the quarterback to make this throw with this view of the action he has to have confidence in his receiver in tight coverage.

Cunningham does a good job of reducing his shoulder just enough that the defender is forced to use his front arm to check the tight end down the field. It’s also what gives the tight end an opportunity to set up his break further inside with the ball in the air.

Cunningham turns outside to track the ball but the pass will be arriving over his inside shoulder.
Cunningham turns outside to track the ball but the pass will be arriving over his inside shoulder.

How do we know that Cunningham didn’t turn the wrong way or the quarterback threw the ball over the incorrect shoulder? We don’t without asking them, but based on the coverage where there is no safety over top, I think the quarterback knew to throw the receiver open and made the adjustment. I also think Cunningham set up this break inside with this initial turn. Even if I’m giving Cunningham too much credit, the fact that he’s athletic enough to make the adjustment you see ahead also projects well to the NFL.

Cunningham turns inside and across the face of his coverage to track the ball.
Cunningham turns inside and across the face of his coverage to track the ball.

As Cunningham completes his turn, the defender is caught in a position where he either has to turn back and lose ground to the tight end or continue to play the man and hope he can knock the ball away. It doesn’t help the linebacker that he chose to look straight up to track the ball, which will slow his stride down field and give Cunningham even more separation.

 

Cunningham extends for the ball, makes the catch, and has his back shielding the defender due to his turn.
Cunningham extends for the ball, makes the catch, and has his back shielding the defender due to his turn.

First down and much more – for the play from start to finish, here’s a link to where the play begins in the video. Cunningham isn’t fast, but I bet he’ll run as fast or faster time than a more heralded prospect like Michigan State’s Dion Sims – and I like Sims’ potential. It’s why the tight end depth has a chance to be crazy good for the 2013 class.

For more analysis of skill players like the post below, prepay for the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1 for download. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. Get the 2012 RSP or other past issues for just $9.95 apiece. For a current list of players studied thus far for the 2013 publication, go here. 

2013 RSP Update & Film Notes

0 Comments read RSP Publication
The writer is old, but his equipment has been upgraded thanks to you. Photo by Chandler Mowery.
Same old writer, but new equipment – thanks to you. Photo by Chandler Mowery.

It’s been a jam-packed month of travel and prospect analysis over at RSP headquarters. Today’s post reveals my first update of players I’ve done play-by-play study for the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – 168 players (and counting).Below is the list, but first some quick thoughts about some of the players I’ve watched this month.

Before I get to that, I’d like to thank my loyal readers, who’ve helped me make two investments back into this modest venture: A new PC with two monitors and a new television. My first trusty TV for player viewing was a late-`90s Sanyo standard screen box set that I bought at a pawn shop 10 years ago. It took up a third of my desk. As you can see above, the new set and the wall mount makes a great working environment. If you’re reading this then you’ve helped make this possible.

Quick Takes

A big part of studying players is projecting potential NFL performance provided that the work ethic, scheme fit, and organizational stability are all favorable. This is why that many of my favorite players that I study each year aren’t the marquee names in the Top-100. Ask anyone who truly studies the game – especially players – and you begin to see how players can develop into contributors, starters, or even stars despite lacking a marquee college pedigree.

  • A player I can see developing into a future contributor is Arizona QB Matt Scott. His footwork is a big cause of his inaccuracy down field, but a clue to him developing better accuracy is in the fact that he throws the ball well on the run. He has good velocity and an aggressive mindset with mobility than may suit this new age of NFL offense. I’d rather take a chance on Scott late or in free agency than draft Landry Jones. I know this will ruffle some feathers of Sooners fans, but I believe it is difficult for quarterbacks to improve down-field aggressiveness and anticipation. The mechanics can improve, but I believe Scott as the mentality than Jones lacks.
  • LSU has good college backs who have done little in the NFL: Keiland Williams, Charles Scott, Justin Vincent, Rondell Mealey, and Harvey Williams among them. Joseph Addai, Kevin Faulk, and Domanick Davis are noted exceptions. The best LSU back I have seen since Joseph Addai is one of my favorite runners in this draft class – junior Spencer Ware. I’ll be writing about him soon. When I do, you’ll wonder what’s been going on with Ware or LSU behind the scenes because he was under utilized. If you love the running style of Marion Barber or Marshawn Lynch, Ware is your kind of back.
  • It’s a subtle thing, but Central Florida runner Latavius Murray has one of the strangest styles I have seen in a runner in several years. I’m looking forward to watching more of him because the best way I can describe his style is the running back version of Drunken Master boxing. I’ll have my final verdict in the next 6-8 weeks, but let’s just say he’s entertaining.
  • Michigan State tight end Dion Sims reminds me an updated version of Steeler/Ravens tight end Eric Green. Big, fluid, and with soft hands, Sims will excite an NFL team with his potential. But if you’re seeking Pro Bowl upside, I can think of at least five tight ends that I’d rather take in this draft.
  • Seeking upside potential? Rutgers wide receiver Mark Harrison has the combo of physical skills and fundamentals to develop into a better pro than collegian. Big, physical, fast enough to get deep, and capable of big plays with the ball int he air, he’s going to have days in practices where he lights it up. The question will be if he can become a consistent producer.
  • I mentioned this on Twitter on Monday: Marquess Wilson may have cost himself a chance to get drafted after quitting the Washington State program, but if you watch Wilson against Oregon you’ll see a player who didn’t quit, didn’t celebrate little victories, and continued to battle despite dropping some passes that few NFL players would catch. I see a stronger-than-you-think receiver with preternatural skills to position himself between the incoming pass and the defense and a quick first step. Wilson and Spencer Ware are the two players I’d most like to interview this year with the perspective of a GM.
  • Ronnie Williams, T.J. Moe, and Ryan Swope all have slot skills that I’m looking forward to seeing develop at the next level. Moe and Swope are the most talked about, but Williams – a receiver from Houston – is a quick, powerful for his size, and reminds me of a more explosive Davone Bess.
  • Doug Farrar and I joked around about Nick Kasa at the Senior Bowl. I’ve given him the nickname the “Ulu Knife” because like this food prep tool, he’s useful, has unique properties, but might not fit in the every-day, household offense of the NFL.
  • Collin Klein has little to offer in terms of NFL-caliber accuracy, but I love watching him play football. If you appreciate good football appropriate to the level it is, watch a K-State game with Klein at the helm. I wish I could combine Klein’s mentality for the game into E.J. Manuel or Tyler Bray’s body.

First 2013 RSP Update

As always, the Rookie Scouting Portfolio will be available April 1 for download. Prepayment is available now. The post-draft analysis will be available a week after the NFL Draft. I’m happy to say I’m on schedule for the eighth straight year to meet that April 1 deadline. You can see the players I’ve watched (often multiple times) below. You can find this list here.

QBs

  • Collin Klein
  • E.J. Manuel
  • Geno Smith
  • James Vandenberg
  • Jordan Rodgers
  • Landry Jones
  • Matt Barkley
  • Matt Scott
  • Mike Glennon
  • Ryan Griffin
  • Ryan Nassib
  • Tyler Bray
  • Tyler Wilson

RBs

  • Andre Ellington
  • Benny Cunningham
  • C.J. Anderson
  • Cameron Marshall
  • Chris Thompson
  • Christine Michael
  • Cierre Wood
  • Curtis McNeal
  • Dennis Johnson
  • D.J. Harper
  • Ed Wesley
  • Eddie Lacy
  • Eric Stephens, Jr.
  • George Winn
  • Giovani Bernard
  • Isi Sofele
  • James Sims
  • James Washington
  • Jawan Jamison
  • Jeremy Brown
  • John White
  • Johnathan Franklin
  • Joseph Randle
  • Kenjon Barner
  • Kerwynn Williams
  • Knile Davis
  • Latavius Murray
  • Le’Veon Bell
  • Marcus Lattimore
  • Max Milien
  • Michael Dyer
  • Michael Ford
  • Miguel Maysonet
  • Mike Gillislee
  • Mike James
  • Montee Ball
  • Montel Harris
  • Onterrio McCalebb
  • Orwin Smith
  • Perry Jones
  • Ray Graham
  • Reggie Bullock
  • Rex Burkhead
  • Robbie Rouse
  • Silas Redd
  • Spence Wware
  • Stepfan Taylor
  • Stepfon Jefferson
  • Zac Stacy

WRs

  • Aaron Dobson
  • Ace Sanders
  • Andrell Smith
  • Andrew Bodenheim
  • Anthony Amos
  • Brandon Wimberly
  • C.J. Hammon
  • Cameron Saddler
  • Chris Harber
  • Chuck Jacobs
  • Cody Wilson
  • Cobi Hamilton
  • Conner Vernon
  • Cordarelle Patterson
  • Corey Fuller
  • Da’Rick Rogers
  • Darius Johnson
  • Darrin Moore
  • Daymond Patterson
  • DeAndre Hopkins
  • Desmond Scott
  • Devin Street
  • DeVonte Christopher
  • Drew Terrell
  • Dyrell Robert
  • Erik Highsmith
  • Harry Peoples
  • Ivan Delgado
  • Jamal Miles
  • Javone Lawson
  • Jerry Johnson
  • Jheranie Boyd
  • Jordan Matthews
  • Josh Boyce
  • Josh Jarboe
  • Justin Brown
  • Justin Hunter
  • Keenan Allen
  • Keenan Davis
  • Kenny Stills
  • Kevin Dorsey
  • Lanear Sampson
  • La’Rod King
  • Marcus Davis
  • Marcus Sales
  • Mark Harrison
  • Markus Wheaton
  • Marqise Lee
  • Marquess Wilson
  • Marquise Goodwin
  • Martell Moore
  • Matt Austin
  • Mike Shanahan
  • Myles White
  • Perez Ashford
  • Quinton Patton
  • Reggie Dunn
  • Robert Woods
  • Ronnie Williams
  • Roy Roundtree
  • Ryan Swope
  • Shaquelle Evans
  • Skye Dawson
  • Steadman Bailey
  • Tarvarres King
  • Tavon Austin
  • Taylor Stockemer
  • Terrence Williams
  • Theo Riddick
  • Tim Wright
  • Tobias Palmer
  • Tracey Moore
  • Tyson Williams
  • Uzoma Nwachukwu

TEs

  • Andrew Power
  • Ben Cotton
  • Brandon Ford
  • Chris Gragg
  • Colby Prince
  • D.C. Jefferson
  • Dallin Rogers
  • Dion Sims
  • Gavin Escobar
  • Jack Doyle
  • Jordan Reed
  • Joseph Fauria
  • Justice Cunningham
  • Kellen Barlett
  • Levine Toilolo
  • Mychal Rivera
  • Phillip Lutzenkirchen
  • Nick Kasa
  • Ryan Griffin
  • Ryan Otten
  • Tyler Eifert
  • Travis Kelce
  • Travis Tannahill
  • Vance McDonald
  • Zach Ertz
  • Zach Sudfeld

Futures: Central Michigan OT Eric Fisher

0 Comments read Players

 

Central Michigan LT Eric Fisher reminds many of 49ers LT Joe Staley, also an alum of the Chippewas and crazy athletic for his position. Photo by >.
Central Michigan LT Eric Fisher reminds many of 49ers LT Joe Staley, also an alum of the Chippewas and crazy athletic for his position. Photo by <1977>.

I spend most of my time at the Senior Bowl practices following skill players around the field. I don’t watch a lot of line play in Mobile. Even so, it was difficult not to hear about Central Michigan left tackle Eric Fisher. The 6-foot-7, 305-pound Fisher was one of the most praised players on the field last week. The most noteworthy praise came from a great source that wasn’t even in Mobile.

Larry Zierlein is a football lifer. He has been an offensive line coach for the Buffalo Bills (2006), Cleveland Browns (2001-2004), and Pittsburgh Steelers (2007-2009). He has also coached the offensive lines of the Houston Cougars (1978-1986), Tulane Green Wave (1988-1990 and 1995-1996), LSU (1993-1994), and the University of Cincinnati (1997-2000).

The reason the last name Zierlein may also be familiar to you is that his son Lance is a sports radio host based in Houston, as well as a blogger for The Sideline View. I had a brief conversation with the younger Zierlein after practice and it was there that he told me what his father thought of Fisher. The elder Zierlein said that he would look at the rest of the tape his son sent him, but it didn’t take him long to realize that Fisher is what coaches call a “six-play” player -– a prospect who you can tell will deliver the goods on a consistent basis as a professional after watching just six plays.

It’s little wonder that a player earning this type of praise from a veteran offensive line coach has been compared to a left tackle like 49ers lineman Joe Staley, who is also from Central Michigan. Staley is known as one of the most athletic linemen in the game, and this high level of athleticism is also Fisher’s calling card. Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

Flashes: OU WR Kenny Stills

0 Comments read Players, Wide Receiver
Here's the example of Raghib Ismail attacking the football with good hand position. Photo by Joint Base Lewis McCord.
Here’s the example of Raghib Ismail attacking the football with good hand position. Photo by Joint Base Lewis McCord.

Sometimes the difference between a touchdown and a drop of a wide-open pass comes down to the difference between an active and passive approach, the space between the fingertips and the palm, and understanding why even good technique isn’t good in the wrong situation. 

Kenny Stills is a big-play wide receiver. Watch enough of his games and you’ll see a player capable of getting behind cornerbacks or winning 50/50 balls on any variety of fades in tight coverage that you can imagine. There will be plenty of positives to list about Stills’ game in the coming months.

I believe the Oklahoma star has the potential to become a long-term starter within a few years. I also believe that like any good prospect, Stills has areas to address in his game. Sometimes an issue can be such a fine point of detail that it can go unnoticed as a lack of concentration.

This 1st-and-goal pass from the eight with 2:20 in the half against Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl is a good example the differences between decent and optimal pass catching:

  • Passive and active catching.
  • Catching the ball with the palms instead of the tips of the fingers.
  • Good and better hand position.

The play begins from 20 personnel with receivers 2×1 and the backfield configured in an offset pistol.

StillsA1

Stills was the outside receiver on the twin side with a corner playing three yards from the line of scrimmage and shading Stills to the inside. The route was a fade to the left sideline. Stills does a fantastic job working open on this route.

StillsA2

Fade routes tend to be simple patterns where the emphasis is on the pure athleticism of speed, quickness, hand-eye coordination, and leaping ability. What I love about Stills here is that the junior receiver turns this simple route into an elegant pattern. Stills begins his fade to the outside, angling his outside shoulder and drifting to the boundary while looking over his inside shoulder. The A&M cornerback reacting to this route understandably sees this as the break to the football when in fact it’s Stills’ opening move. If you read this blog regularly, then you know I have a deep appreciation for receivers who can tell a story that puts them a step ahead of the defender.

With the ball in the air, Stills continues to bait the corner by continuing to drift outside while turning his head over his inside shoulder.

StillsA3

Stills takes one more step towards the outside, plants his outside foot, and pivots to his right, turning inside out.

StillsA4

This outside turn helps Stills keep his eye on the ball and at the same time turning his back to the defender and shield the pass. This is nice route technique and it places Stills in position to make a play on the ball with plenty of room inside the boundary in position where the defender cannot play the ball. The problem begins as the ball arrives within a few feet of Stills.

StillsA5

This looks like good technique. Stills’ hands are away from his body, palms up, fingers extended, and he’s looking the ball into his hands. Nine out of 10 times, this is a technique that no one would question – perhaps 9.9 out of 10 times. However, Stills could have extended his arms for the ball with his elbows and backs of his forearms pointed towards the ball – a more active technique for acting the football in this situation.

Whenever there is a chance to take an active approach to attack to football rather than a passive one, you take it. If Stills extended as recommended, his fingers are in a better position to make first contact with the ball. Instead, Stills’ hands are in a position where the ball could just as likely strike the receiver’s palms – a part of the hand where the receiver doesn’t have the same ability to stop the spin of the ball as easily as the fingers.

StillsA6

The tip of the ball arrives directly to the palm of Stills’ right hand. If Stills has both hands positioned so both sets of fingers touch the front of the ball at either side, there’s little chance that the ball rebounds off his hand because the fingers stop the spin. Instead, the ball rebounds off Still’s right palm as the left hands is a good six inches away from the ball.

StillsA7

When the ball bounces off Stills’ right palm, the receiver raises his left hand towards the ball. At this point his hands are simply reacting to the ball and not in a good position to control the pass. This passive hand position leads to more passive reactions.

StillsA8

The ball rebounds off the palm of Stills’ left hand and begins its trajectory towards the receiver’s face mask. Meanwhile, the A&M cornerback now has a free pass to make contact with Stills and disrupt the receiver’s chance to control the football. The ball then rebounds off the face mask and his hands are too close to his chest to re-extend as the ball flies off Stills’ helmet.

StillsA9

The rebounding ball flies beyond Stills’ reach, just grazing his fingertips of his left hand.

StillsA10

The pass falls incomplete, and what should have been an easy touchdown as a product of a great route is a dropped ball. As I mentioned at the beginning of this post, Stills demonstrates good hands and excellent skills adjusting to the football. However, even good prospects have areas to improve. I believe the best receivers tend to attack the ball with aggressive hand position. This is something Stills can do with greater consistency.

For more analysis of skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 1/25/2013: Sr. Bowl

0 Comments read Matt Waldman, Reads Listens Views
My best three skill players at the Senior Bowl? Markus Wheaton, Quinton Patton, and Tyler Wilson would have earned my votes. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.
My best three skill players at the Senior Bowl? Markus Wheaton, Quinton Patton, and Tyler Wilson would have earned my votes. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.

Thanks

Its always good to get new followers at the blog and on Twitter and there are a lot of new readers, thanks to the Senior Bowl coverage here, at Football Outsiders, and the New York Times. Special thanks to Jene Bramel and Cecil Lammey for their work this week, as well as the various folks I follow on Twitter who also sent readers our way. If you’re new to the RSP blog here are some links that I think will help you learn what you’ll get here:

  • 2013 NFL  Draft Analysis – This link as a running collection of analysis I’ve written – including Sr. Bowl coverage.
  • 2013 NFL Draft Analysis – Just like above, but for 2012.
  • What is the RSP? – New to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio? I have an annual publication that is available for download April 1 and available for prepayment now. This is why folks come here.

Every Friday, I post links to football and non-football reads as well as links to photos, music, and videos that catch my eye while I’m surfing. This week will have a more decided Sr. Bowl theme. If you’re new, I suggest you follow the blog and either signup for email notifications for content or add to your RSS Feed. And thanks to my loyal readers for the views, the feedback, and those who demanded I offer a prepayment option for the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. 

Football Reads

  • Daniel Jeremiah’s Quick Hits on the Sr. Bowl: The former Eagles and Browns scout liked Desmond Trufant, who we saw talk a good game and get beat on occasion by the better receivers at practice. However, CBS analyst Rob Rang is in Huskies country and he shared with us that he reserved judgment on Trufant this year because the Washington defense lacked a pass rush and forced the corner into unrealistic coverage situations deep. Rang likes what he saw of Trufant in practice and like Jeremiah is more confident. Bramel had some questions about Trufant’s hips, but also saw good things even if his analysis was a more critical. I also think the take that scouts were “intoxicated” by Marquise Goodwin’s speed is a dead-on assessment. Read into it a little more and I think intoxicated or hypnotized is a good word for a player who I think fits along the stylistic spectrum of Jacoby Ford, but hasn’t improved his ability to work off the jam and maintain good form and function as a route runner on a consistent basis since studying him last year. Here are my two takes of Goodwin (Part I and Part II)
  • Russ Lande’s Risers: I disagree with the Chris Harper assessment, especially as one being on top of the action every day he was out there. I’d characterize his performance as a mixed bag. However, I do agree with the rest of the skill player assessments – especially Vance McDonald.
  • Doug Farrar’s Take on E.J. Manuel – I think Doug makes some good arguments as to why Manuel not only has the highest upside of the quarterbacks here, but also a higher floor than many anticipate. Tyler Wilson is still my favorite QB in this class, but I saw enough from Manuel on film to buy into Farrar’s take.
  • Ryan Riddle’s Five NFL Draft Prospects Most Likely to Be Overdrafted – I dislike slideshows, but this one is worth it.

Listens & Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/eU7liIhY_m8]

More to Live For – This documentary profiles one of my favorite musicians, multi-Grammy winner Michael Brecker – who appeared on over 800 albums in his lifetime. Brecker died from a disease that required a matching blood marrow donor. The film highlights Brecker, a music executive, and Nigerian athlete who all had more to live for but blood marrow donations are still needed the way we give blood.

Non-Football Reads

 

How I Would Change The Senior Bowl

0 Comments read Matt Waldman
Tom Moore, Senior Bowl Coach Emeritus. Has a ring to it. Learn why the Senior Bowl should become a lyceum for coaching. Photo by Ringfrenzy
Tom Moore, Senior Bowl Coach Emeritus. Has a ring to it. Learn why the Senior Bowl should become a lyceum for coaching. Photo by Ringfrenzy

I’ll have practice observations from Day Three coming soon, but first I want to share what I would do to take the Senior Bowl into the 21st century if given the power to make major changes. The benefits would far outweigh the costs – especially in a league in its golden age making money hand over first.

Phil Savage is doing a lot to create an infrastructure that will address the minor flaws of the Senior Bowl experience. There is more organization with team interviews at the team hotels. There’s a greater level of separation among NFL team representatives, media, and fans. He has even gotten the NFL to allow fourth-year juniors with degrees to participate – a first. And as I’ve mentioned a couple of times this week, Savage wants the NFL more involved in scouting players it wants to invite to the game as well as encouraging prospects to accept the invitation.

The new director of the Senior Bowl understands that there isn’t much incentive for the highest profile seniors to attend the event. If I were an agent for Geno Smith, Tyler Eifert, or Tavon Austin, I wouldn’t recommend them to accept an invitation. It is common knowledge that 90 percent of the on-field portion of player scouting has already been done by now, why risk an injury before the NFL Combine? At present, the Combine and pro days have a greater perceived impact on a prospect’s draft stock and the prep time to “game” these pseudo-football drills is of precious value to a prospect. A player with a minor or nagging injury has more to lose exacerbating the injury or underwhelming observers at the Senior Bowl than skipping the event altogether.

I can appreciate what Savage is doing to tighten up the event even if what he is tackling is low-hanging fruit. However, he’ll have to make bigger changes if he wants to cut the 25 percent turn-down rate among first-invites to 10-12 percent. Savage and the Senior Bowl staff encouraged NFL team representatives multiple times this week to give feedback on how to make the event better.

If I were a high-ranking official of an NFL team and what I perceive as an outsider looking in is accurate, then I have a number of big changes that I would make to transform the Senior Bowl into a sterling, must-attend event that even the agents of the crème de la crème would have to encourage their clients to go. These are big-picture moves that would make scouting this game easier, enhance the image of the game and the NFL, begin to prepare the players for professional football both on and off the field, and ultimately increase the brand of the Senior Bowl to its customers and sponsors.

Hire Full-Time Coaching Staffs

I recognize the appeal of NFL staffs coaching the Senior Bowl rosters. The perception is that these teams offer players a wealth of football experience, cutting-edge teaching techniques, and it’s all backed by prestige of the NFL shield. This is my fourth year here and I don’t buy it.

The differences in quality and methodology among coaching staffs across the league are vast. Northern Illinois running back Chad Spann spent time with the Colts, Buccaneers, and Steelers during the 2011 season. The structure, the attention to teaching, and the culture of the teams all differed. It’s the same when watching the Lions run a practice compared to the Raiders, Bills, Dolphins, Bengals, or Vikings. The basic intent of some drills may be similar, but the methods, the pace, and the feedback are often worlds apart. Although there where good things I learned from the Raiders wide receiver drills, I would have felt cheated as a Senior Bowl receiver if I saw what the Lions staff did with its players.

One of the major changes I’d make is to ask the NFL to create a budget for a coaching staff with two head coaches and a full complement of assistants. The staff would assist Savage in scouting and selecting players for the event. Since there is only one game for the Senior Bowl coaches every year, the Senior Bowl committee could create programs where these coaches could hold seminars or panels for college and pro coaches to exchange ideas during the offseason. The Senior Bowl could become an incubator for coaching innovation – as my friend Sigmund Bloom would call a “Lyceum for football coaches.”

This job could have a lot of appeal for some of the great coaches of the game who may no longer wish to travel or have the same killer schedule as an NFL team, but still have something great to offer to the game as a professor emeritus of coaching. They could do consulting for NFL teams. Imagine Howard Mudd, Tom Moore, or Tony Dungy as assistant or head coaches-in-residence. The league could even have an NFL scouting school and these graduates or teachers are part of the ground-floor process of narrowing down players to invite for the game. There are a ton of far-reaching innovations from this idea that could prove lucrative for the Senior Bowl and provide long-term benefit to the NFL.

The best value of a change like this one for teams, scouts, and media is that I would require these coaches to agree upon the same drills to run prospects through their paces during Senior Bowl Week. The order, location, and execution of the drills would all be uniform. This would be easier for teams to know where to station its scouts, help the planning committee organize the viewing experience, and most important, make it easier to see how players performed relative to each other.

Add 3-5 Days to the Event

If the Senior Bowl were 10-14 days in length, the event could then become the place where the NFL has its rookie symposium. Although many of these rookies won’t make the NFL, several of them will play professional football of some sort in the CFL or Arena League. Helping these prospects become aware of the pitfalls a professional football life on and off the field can never start too early – especially during a time where players are shopping for agents, financial advisors, and are targeted to accept loans before they even see contracts. Make the Senior Bowl seminars a voice of proactive sanity.

Another benefit of extending the event is that the Senior Bowl should increase its invitation list and add another 22-44 prospects as “taxi squad” invites. They’ll attend the symposiums, study the playbooks, and have the opportunity to meet with teams, but they won’t practice unless a player from an active roster gets hurt or drops out. The additional roster spots give the bubble players a better chance to be prepared than flown down the day of practice and fitted into pads on the field while a coach is giving them a crash course of the practice schedule or scheme. This would reduce the number of players turning down the event and it would also alter the perception that the Senior Bowl is always scrambling at the last minute to fill its rosters.

Make the Mobile the “Official NFL Convention”

If the Senior Bowl could hire full-time coaches, create a coaching institute and farm out consulting, institute a scouting school, and host the Rookie Symposium, the Senior Bowl would no longer be the “Unofficial NFL Convention.” Mobile would become a hub where old and new exchange ideas, players make career transitions to scouts and coaches, and college prospects get top-notch coaching and exposure to wisdom on and off the field to prepare them for the profession. This type of investment would be good for the NFL on so many levels, I can’t see a downside. Can you?

Senior Bowl: Day Two Skill Player Notables

0 Comments read Players, Quarterback, Running Back, Tight End, Wide Receiver

Day Two of the Senior Bowl was packed with observations from both practices. This morning’s report covers wide receivers, quarterbacks, running backs, and tight ends. There are also some thoughts about drills and the Senior Bowl selection process.

A Senior Bowl tradition worth keeping is a writing roundtable at The Brick Pit. We'll have our own below. BYOB(BQ). Photo by MRak75.
A Senior Bowl tradition worth keeping is a writers roundtable at The Brick Pit. We’ll have our own below. BYOB(BQ). Photo by MRak75.

Plenty of highlights today, most notably a football roundtable with Rotoworld’s Josh Norris, CBS’s Rob Rang, Football Outsiders-Fifth Down contributor Andy Benoit, Yahoo!-Outsider’s alum Doug Farrar, and Footballguys-RSP guest writer Jene Bramel. The conversation was better than the barbeque and the `cue was no slouch. If you aren’t reading these guys, then you probably aren’t looking at this page. If you’re one of the lone exceptions, I highly recommend you start checking out their work.

Quick Thoughts

The more I watch pass protection drills between backs and linebackers the less I’m impressed by the design of these exercises. I have no coaching experience, but it fascinates me that teams don’t employ more diagnostic elements into the drills – especially for the pass protectors. Why not have a 3 (defenders)-on-1 (blocker) drill where the blocker has two or three possible options he has to read before the snap and then get into position after the snap to execute the assignment? At this point, I watch running backs in these traditional drills and often the only thing they really learn is to game the system of the drill rather than develop real pass protection skills.

The Senior Bowl has a tradition of inviting at least two players from a prominent Alabama institution. This year I believe the two players were Auburn back/return specialist Onterrio McCalebb and Alabama eight end Michael Williams. Both players have the skills to be in Mobile this week, but there have been times I thought some of the past players were a gesture of goodwill to attract in-state interest. From a marketing standpoint I get it. However, the changes Phil Savage is instituting with the structure of the week, scouting players, decreasing the turn-down rate of initial invitees, and even the limitations of field access to the general media to give the NFL Network room to roam, indicates that the Senior Bowl wants to increase its national prominence. Right now, having Alabama and Auburn players is often a no-brainer, but Alabama football doesn’t need to be thrown a bone to get here and one day this practice might prevent more deserving talents from participating.

North Squad Receivers

The Raiders dispensed with a few of Day 1’s drills and went right to the 5×10 cone drill versus cornerbacks. Today, the corners gained the upper hand and were far more successful with knocking the receivers outside the five-yard-wide boundary before they reached the second set of cones 10 yards down field. Unlike yesterday, no receiver from the North squad dominated this exercise against press.  However, some of these receivers who struggled in this drill turned the tables in scrimmages or one-on-one matchups.

Markus Wheaton: Wheaton had initial trouble getting on top of the defender with his first two reps in the cone drill. He also was a little rough through his breaks on an out-and-up, but earned separation with his speed up the boundary. Unlike several of the receivers on either squad, Wheaton has a knack for getting position on a defender after his break. He made a nice catch on a slant, got strong position on a hook after his break, and for the second time in two days, displayed good technique on a deep fade where he caught the ball over his shoulder at the boundary. On five-on-sevens, Wheaton engaged in some trash talking with Washington corner Desmond Trufant, who asked the coaches to allow him to cut in line and take on the receiver. Wheaton promptly spanked Trufant on a deep streak up the right sideline with a nice move early in the route to slide outside and then buy position. Mike Glennon made the deep throw, hitting Wheaton in stride.

Marquise Goodwin: Goodwin began the 5×10 cone drill with some success. When he can use his quickness to avoid the reach of a corner, he wins easily. However, the Longhorns receiver progressively allowed defenders to get the best of him with each rep because he didn’t flash the coordination or strength to keep hands off his body. Once the corners jammed Goodwin, he could never shake them from a position over the top and they rode the receiver down field. One thing Wheaton does well that Goodwin has to learn is to duck through contact. Goodwin gets too upright and presents a great target for his opponent. In the scrimmage parts of practice, Goodwin was up and down. He ran a nice curl and then a good out. Speed is sometimes a wonderful eraser of bad technique – he failed to execute a swim move against press but managed to  a sharp turn under the defender and get separation on an out. He still has to learn how to generate good position after his breaks. He was undercut on one target and then got open on a cross only to drop a good pass from Ryan Nassib.

Chris Harper: Harper got tied up on all three of his reps in the 5×10 cone drill. On two of the three reps, he managed to work free after an initial struggle, but the third rep was a complete failure – but he was far from the only receiver to have a failed rep in this morning’s drill. In scrimmage situations or one-on-ones, Harper looks good in the first half of his routes and will fight for the ball after his break, but actual breaks need improvement. I don’t see the speed to win the ball at the end of vertical routes and I’m not as impressed with him as some of my compatriots this week. I don’t know if anyone is comparing him with Juron Criner due to his build, but I’d much rather have Criner.

Aaron Mellette:  The receiver from Elon struggled yesterday in drills, but he improved today. Mellette won his matchups in two of his three reps in this 5×10 cone drill. Although he encountered some resistance that he couldn’t beat immediately on the third rep, he eventually got on top of the defender. It was good to see him make progress from one day to the next. I’m looking forward to seeing if that progress continues on Wednesday. He carried over that ability to gain separation into one-on-one’s, but dropped multiple passes. He managed to get deep at the one of the one-on-one portion. Unlike Brian Quick last year, there’s more football savvy to the way Mellette uses his body.  He also did a good job working back to the football today. Perhaps he has a fighting chance to develop into an NFL contributor. The athleticism is there.

Aaron Dobson: I love Dobson’s ability to adjust to the football with a defender on him, but he still needs to improve his techniques off the line of scrimmage. He had one bad rep, improved upon it with the next turn, and then failed to get separation on the third rep. He’s at his best when he’s a little more physical with the corners. The finesse moves just aren’t working for him right now. In one-on-one’s he got a quick release early and once again did a nice job of adjusting to the football just like he flashed on Monday. He didn’t see a lot of targets on five-on-seven or 11-on-11s today.

Denard Robinson: Robinson continues to wear the yellow, no-contact jersey and today the biggest takeaway was the amount of extra attention the Raiders receiver coach spent on the Michigan athlete’s stride. Robinson dropped several passes today in drills and one-on-ones. Still, there was a reminder of what Robinson could do if he can assimilate the techniques of playing receiver. The rep was an out-and-up versus a corner playing off-man technique. Robinson slipped during his initial out-cut, but his athleticism clicked into gear and he managed to stay upright and turn the corner on the defensive back swooping in for the kill on the initial break. Robinson shot up the sideline and beat the defender handily for a long play. It was an example of how athleticism can erase errors. Just understand that the eraser isn’t nearly as large at the NFL level.

Alec Lemon: Lemon was a late substitute for the North Squad. The Syracuse receiver made a sneaky-good impression today. Despite failing to win any rep in 5×10 cone drills versus the defensive backs, when Lemon was asked to run routes, he turned lemons into…okay, I won’t go there. Lemon demonstrated the savvy to turn a defender’s jam into his favor, consistently getting late separation and making catch after catch in tight quarters. He was smooth, in control, and unfazed by decent coverage.  I still have questions about his athleticism for the NFL level, but I he did a good job today.

South Practice Wide Receivers

Ryan Swope was on the sideline today and the Lions practice was far more equipment-focused for receivers than the Raiders. This was the case when they were here a couple of years ago. Detroit’s drills were different than the last time the team coached here. The staff employed trash cans and blocking dummies to emphasize angles of breaks and control with turns. The coaches used the dummies to emphasis intensity with strikes during the release phase of routes. If I were to compare the staffs, the Raiders focused more on releases during their drills and the Lions emphasized breaks. If I were a receiver at the Senior Bowl I felt the Lions staff had a more comprehensive approach to coaching the receivers on the field.

Quinton Patton: The receiver from Louisiana Tech was one of those cases where I saw more from him in practice than I saw from him in his games. Patton was really quick running through the gauntlet of cans and made tight turns on breaks. He practices fast.  In one-on-one’s Patton made a tough catch on a deep streak up the right sideline, fighting through contact late in the route. The defensive back pushed Patton late and the receiver managed to control his balance enough to get additional separation as he turned back to the ball and made the catch while falling backwards, losing his helmet in the process – one of the most impressive athletic displays among the receivers this week. Patton earned praise form the coaching staff in scrimmages for working back to the football and taking good position on a slant. He also was the on the receiving end of the most impressive throw I saw today (from Tyler Wilson – more on that later), catching a dig in stride.

Cobi Hamilton: Hamilton’s play wasn’t as consistent as Patton’s, but he had noticeable bright moments in practice. He has sharp with his breaks during drills, which earned him praise for improving during his reps. He dropped a dig route in 11-on-11 drills because he waited for the ball to arrive. He failed to extend his arms to the ball a few times on catchable passes and it’s a habit I’d like to see him address. One thing he did well was work back to the quarterback. If he can do a better job extending his arms, he’ll make more plays – especially in the face of contact. Hamilton blew by a corner on one deep target, but he failed to make the proper adjustment to the ball. Hamilton’s NFL athleticism is easy to see, but he needs to address the details of his craft or he’ll tease an NFL team. Think Mohammed Massoquoi or Reggie Brown.

Conner Vernon: The Duke receiver earned praise for his tight turns in drills, especially the angle of his breaks. Although he didn’t achieve strong separation versus man coverage, he was often in good position to make a play on the football. Vernon dropped two passes after encountering contact from tight coverage. He did make a nice catch at the sideline on an out after he was pushed in the chest while airborne to make the reception of an E.J. Manuel pass in 11-on-11 drills. It was too quick to call whether he was inbounds, but the effort was good. Vernon, like Alec Lemon, has to make up for his lack of top-end speed by catching everything in sight versus tight coverage. He didn’t do it today.

Terrance Williams: Williams had an up and down day. During route drills, he’d have a strong rep followed by a weaker one. When he put it all together on a rep, he drew a lot of encouragement from the Lions staff. You can see flashes of a pro receiver when those moments of technique and athleticism converge. It didn’t happen often enough today. Williams failed to get position or come back to the football in scrimmages and dropped a pass after contact from a defender. Like Hamilton, he’s an NFL athlete but not yet an NFL receiver.

Tavarres King: King wasn’t as athletic as Patton, Hamilton, or Williams, but he was more consistent than the last two. I liked his ability to break on the ball and he had a route up the left sideline where he told a good story with a couple of fluid moves to set up his break back to the quarterback at the left sideline in tight coverage. One of the better catches of the day was a dig route where he had to make a strong extension on a pass at shoulder level well away from his body, displaying the ability to “play long.” He had one drop on a low, but catchable throw during five-on-sevens with Landry Jones at quarterback.

North and South Squad Running Backs

Oregon running back Kenjon Barner has his fans here. Doug Farrar and Josh Norris believe he's a better prospect than LaMichael James. Photo by Wade Rackley.
Oregon running back Kenjon Barner has his fans here. Doug Farrar and Josh Norris believe he’s a better prospect than LaMichael James. Photo by Wade Rackley.

The only notable observations I have of North running backs came from pass protection drills. Before I give my takes on each player, I think it’s important to state that diagnosis is a key component of pass protection that these drills did not simulate. Personally, I’d love to see drills that send multiple defenders off an edge or flash three potential blitz types pre snap and force the running back to make a read based on what he sees from the opposition. This would tell me more than many of the drills I see in practices like these. I did see some runs in 11-on-11s from the South squad backs – worth noting, but nothing new from what I’ve seen from them this year in real games.

Kenjon Barner: Quickness abounds with Barner and I liked his ability to get into position and square-up the defender. He doesn’t deliver a punch and this is a key component to good pass protection. Otherwise, the blocker is more passive than active and he’s likely to be controlled rather than control.

Johnathan Franklin: Franklin got into position and stood his ground against pressure coming down hill at a good pace, but like Barner, he didn’t deliver a punch. Unlike the Oregon back, Franklin was just big enough and demonstrated good enough technique to anchor his legs and hold his ground on more of these reps. Once, again, it comes down to Franklin learning to punch.

Mike Gillislee: The Florida runner got duped on swim moves multiple times in running back versus linebacker pass protection drills. He’s quick enough and will punch and turn a defender if he gets good position, but he can telegraph his intentions. In 11-on-11’s he flashed his quick feet, side-stepping penetration up the middle to slip to an open lane off left guard for a nice gain. He caught the ball well on swing passes and he’s a player who should grow into a contributor. The better he gets at pass protection, the bigger the contributor he can be.

Stepfan Taylor: I profiled Taylor before the Senior Bowl, praising his leverage as a runner. He’s always running in a crouched position that gives him an advantage versus impending contact. He’s the most decisive, physical runner on Mobile this week. As much as I like Johnathan Franklin’s smarts and versatility, I think Taylor is the most NFL-ready of the Senior Bowl backs. I’d like to see him do a better job of delivering a punch in pass drills, but he also has the size to anchor against linebackers. It’s important to note that Taylor won’t get away with “catching” defenders in the NFL like he has in drills here. He has to shore up this deficiency.

North Squad Quarterbacks

According to former NC State Head Coach Tom O'Brien, Mike Glennon was the guy burning a hole in the bench behind Russell Wilson. Perhaps if his play involved matches, because he's not setting the Senior Bowl on fire. Photo by Football Schedule.
According to former NC State Head Coach Tom O’Brien, Mike Glennon was the guy burning a hole in the bench behind Russell Wilson. Perhaps if his play involved matches, because he’s not setting the Senior Bowl on fire. Photo by Football Schedule.

None of these quarterbacks pique my interest. I can offer a logical explanation as to why each one will succeed or fail at the next level, but there are far more possibilities why they won’t make a successful transition than I see from recent quarterback classes. The scrimmage drills highlighted more flaws than strengths for this North depth chart.

Zac Dysert: The Miami, Ohio quarterback is the most aggressive of the trio, but also the most reckless. He stares down his primary receiver too often – he threw an interception on an out doing exactly what I described. He’s the only quarterback I’ve seen on either roster attempt a shoulder fake to bait a defender down field. Dysert also floated the ball down field a couple of times on targets where I think more velocity was required for the pass to reach its receiver on-time. One his deep outs also sailed too high with too much air under the ball. I haven’t seen him really drive the ball yet.

Mike Glennon: The N.C. State quarterback got to show off a pretty deep arm on a sideline fade to Markus Wheaton in five-on-seven drills. He also stuck a slant to Chris Harper in traffic that drew an ooh from the crowd in 11-on-11s. This is Glennon’s appeal: big arm and tall frame to see over the defense without getting on his toes. To be nice, he’s everything Russell Wilson isn’t. To be accurate, everything is only one thing: tall.

Ryan Nassib: Optimum Scouting writer Eric Galko asked me what I thought about Nassib. I can see the case for him developing into an NFL starter one day, but I have reservations about his arm strength. I don’t put a ton of weight into arm strength when it comes to evaluating quarterbacks. But if arm strength is missing from a quarterback’s game there have to compensatory factors that mitigate its absence: mobility, great anticipation, or hyper-accuracy. Nassib doesn’t have great arm strength, but I was encouraged to see an opposite hash throw where he drilled the ball to his receiver. However, his deep throws continue to lack either anticipation or distance and velocity. More anticipation would lessen the need for the other two qualities, but at this point he’s forced to try deep throws without this enhanced timing and he isn’t hitting the mark on time. Some of the plays I enjoyed most today where seam routes Nassib dropped into tight ends with excellent placement – even those his tight end’s dropped. He is clearly the best of the North trio of passers and probably the safest quarterback prospect in Mobile. It still doesn’t mean I would touch him in the first three rounds of the draft. I don’t care what the need is for a quarterback, if I have to pay him franchise money or show franchise patience then I’m throwing away two to three years and a shot at a better option. I think he’s a better prospect in theory than on the field.

South Quarterbacks

E.J. Manuel: Physically, he’s everything you want from a quarterback. Fundamentally, he needs work with his throwing motion and decision making. He can make every throw, but he has to learn better judgment. In scrimmages, he wasn’t pressed into a situation where he had to make a throw any more demanding than an out. The game is going to be the time where Manuel likely flashes the best and worst attributes. Stay tuned.

Landry Jones: He threw a nice swing pass to his full back early and got some help on a sliding catch of a crossing route by Cobi Hamilton in five-on-sevens. He was a little too wide for his receiver Tavarres King on an out, but King should have caught the ball inbounds despite the tight margin of error when not necessary. He did hit Terrance Williams on the move and the receiver worked back to the ball for once.

Tyler Wilson: He threw a pass intended for Mychal Rivera that was placed too far inside and the linebacker over top cut off the throw, tipping it, and a teammate made the interception. This was one of a few players where Wilson wasn’t especially sharp but didn’t get much help from his teammates, either. But here’s the kicker:  After this bad play, Wilson comes back and drills Quinton Patton on a dig route in stride with a laser beam while a defender is bearing down on Wilson from an already constricted pocket – the best throw of the week thus far. This aggressive, resilient nature is what separates Wilson from every quarterback in this class – junior or senior. This wasn’t the only good throw of the day from Wilson. He found Vance McDonald on a seam route 15-20 yards down field with good placement to the tight end’s back shoulder. Scott Linehan also praised Wilson for three quick reads in succession ending with a strong decision to hit Conner Vernon on a crossing route. He’s the only quarterback here I’d draft in the first three rounds and feel I got my money’s worth.

Tight Ends

Jack Doyle: The Western Kentucky prospect dropped multiple passes in five-on-seven and 11-on-11s today. There was a sequence where he dropped two in a row. He’s just fast enough to get down the seam and demonstrates just enough fluid athleticism to reach for a throw over his head or to his back shoulder. What he hasn’t done is hold onto the ball after contact or secures the ball on these adjustments. The Ravens Dennis Pitta is a great example of a less than stellar athlete with great ball skills and smarts in zone. Doyle is proving that he lacks the consistency to earn this kind of comparison.

Nick Kasa: The big Colorado tight end has been the best receiver and blocker of the North’s depth chart. He’s just fast enough to work the seam and big enough to get physical when needed. He catches the ball without fanfare and he’ll rumble through the open field for a bit if a defender isn’t disciplined with his tackling technique. He’s not an exciting prospect for the average fan, but as my colleague Josh Norris or Rob Ryan would say, Kasa will have a chance to playing the league for a while.

Michael Williams: Alabama’s tight end can block and he has soft hands. He’s a big, slow earth mover who welcomes contact from defenders in order to create separation as a receiver. As Doug Farrar and Josh Norris said tonight at dinner, he’ll have a long career as a No.3 tight end in the NFL.

Mychal Rivera: The Tennessee tight end is the smallest tight end in Mobile, but he’s one of the most athletic. He makes plays between defenders, extends well for the football and can make a move after the catch to create space. I didn’t get to see much from him as a blocker, but he projects as an H-Back.

Vance McDonald: One of the better catches of the day came from McDonald, who beat a safety with a nice move during his stem and then took the correct angle down field as he bent the route just enough to the outside to gain separation and run under a deep fade towards the pylon, making the catch with his hands over his inside shoulder in full gallop. He’s fluid like a wide receiver and because he’s so well put together as an athlete he doesn’t strike me as a 260-pound player. In terms of players with potential to be a consistent mismatch on every down, McDonald is the only tight end in this game that fits this description.

For more analysis of skill players, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 1/18/2013

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Life of Pi

This week on Reads Listens Views: Lance Zierlein with a round of “Microwave Scouting”; Ryan Riddle tells you what it was like to participate in a college all-star game; Andy Benoit previews the conference championships; three books I read this month that I think most of you will enjoy; experimental Latin music; and the 2013 RSP is available for pre-payment.

Prepayment for the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio is Available

If you’re one of my readers who, over the years, has convinced me to offer prepayment (thank you), now’s the time. The 2013 RSP is available for $19.95 and will be available for download April (as usual). If you’ve purchased the RSP in the past, you can prepay at this link. You also get the post-draft add-on a week after the draft that includes tiered fantasy rankings, average dynasty draft spot data, team fit analysis, sleepers, UDFAs to watch, and dynasty drafting tips. It’s a second magazine-sized publication that is included with the purchase of the pre-draft publication. Past issues (2006-2012) are available for $9.95 apiece and the RSP donates 10 percent of every sale to Darkness to Light to train communities to recognize and prevent the dynamics of sexual abuse.

Senior Bowl

Once again, I’ll be at the Senior Bowl with Jene Bramel and Cecil Lammey. We’ll be covering practices and media night for the New York Times Fifth Down and Lammey’s ESPN affiliate as well as providing analysis and interviews here at the RSP blog. Stay tuned.

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Reads

Non-Football Reads

Here are three books I’ve read this month and I’d bet most of you will enjoy at least two of them.

  • Life of Pi by Yann Martel – I’m looking forward to seeing the movie, but the book was so good I might read it again before taking in Ang Lee’s vision of this story about an Indian Boy who is stranded on a lifeboat in the Pacific with a zebra, an orangutan, a hyena, and a Bengal tiger. The story is far less fantastical than it appears. However it is fantastic on every level.
  • The Financial Lives of Poets by Jess Walter – This is essentially what I hope to hear doesn’t happen to Chris Brown or Chase Stuart in 15 years when mid-life crisis hits. This novel is a lot of fun and will make you laugh out loud.
  • Killing Johnny Fry by Walter Mosely – Walter Mosely is one of my favorite writers. This is a much different story than his mystery novels – it’s a ‘sexistential novel.’ Not for everyone, but a good read nonetheless.

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