Posts tagged 2014 NFL Draft

Futures: Wake Forest WR Michael Campanaro

March 26, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

A lesson from 45 percent of the Wake Forest passing game.

A Lesson In Zone Routes

By Matt Waldman

The depth of the wide receiver class is one of the headlines of the 2014 NFL Draft. The subtext of this storyline that deserves more attention is how the volume of talent at the position generates massive variation of player grades from team to team across the league.

According to a scout that has worked for a few teams during his career, variation at the position is common. And the contributing factors go beyond the fundamental differences with how individuals within these organizations see talent.

Fit within the offensive scheme is the most obvious differentiating factor. One organization may use a slot receiver as primary weapon—an extension of the running game, a movable mismatch, or an every-down zone beater. Another team has specific defensive schemes where it needs a slot receiver on the field. Then there’s the offense that uses a tight end or running back in that role.

In light of these differences, a talented 5’9”, 192-pound prospect will have a second round grade for the first team; a fourth round grade for the second; and the final team considers the player an undrafted free agent. Expect a lot of hand wringing and fist shaking from fans and writers on draft day when receivers they value are passed over for receivers they don’t.

A receiver I suspect has a wide range of draft grades this year is Wake Forest’s Michael Campanaro. In eight games last year, the Demon Deacons’ receiver accounted for 41 percent of the passing game’s completions, 46 percent of its passing yards, and 55 percent of its touchdowns. His combine performance was as impressive as any receiver . . . Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

Futures: BYU OLB Kyle Van Noy

March 18, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players

Tyrann Mathieu might inspire an NFL team to consider Lamarcus Joyner in a similar role. Photo by wxcasterphx. — Is Kyle Van Noy the Tyrann Mathieu of outside linebackers? Photo by wxcasterphx.

Van Noy has all the tools to become a quality starter in the NFL. He also has the vision and decision-making to become potential star.

Futures: BYU OLB Kyle Van Noy

By Matt Waldman

When my friend Ryan Riddle, Cal’s all-time sack leader, says outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy has great instincts, that’s a player I want to watch.

“Some things in football cannot be coached. When it comes to play making instincts, you either have it or you don’t,” says Riddle about Van Noy’s play-making abilities that he describes as “off the charts.”

“I like to compare him to a linebacker version of Tyrann Mathieu in terms of his ability to be incredibly disruptive by knowing exactly how and when to take chances.”

According to Riddle, Van Noy, who Football Outsiders projects as a first or early second-day pick, is earning mid-round grades. He explains that a player with good instincts can be often be characterized as product of a good system –- even lucky. Worse yet, a coach can sometimes mishandle a player with good instincts because the process isn’t by the book.

I watched enough of Van Noy to say that he was often lucky, but it wasn’t blind luck. Van Noy’s good fortune comes from smart decisions, creativity, effort, and patience.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Reads Listens Views 3/14/2014

March 13, 2014 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

This week’s RLV: Previous Deckers, Guide to music at work, WWII told as a bar fight, Wonderlicked, and Norwegian Lady Day.

What is Reads Listens Views?

If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog, welcome. Most Fridays (except this month, because I’m wrapping up the RSP Publication) I post links to content I’m saving for later reading when I have time. You may not like everything listed here, but you’re bound to like something.

Views – Good Use For Drones

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Bo_f8mV5khg]

Pre-order the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

Friday’s are also my chance to thank you for reading my work, encourage you to follow the RSP blog, and download the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

The RSP is available every April 1 for download. It’s a 250-page (give or take) draft publication filled with analysis of over 170 skill position prospects that has earned it a loyal following of happy readers:

Rankings
Draft history analysis
Overrated/Underrated analysis
Multidimensional player comparisons
Individual skills analysis by position

This is only some of what you receive in the RSP publication. I began writing the RSP 9 years ago. At the time, I was an operations and process improvement manager who was certified in an operations certification standard. The training included best practices for performance evaluation processes – and quality performance from my teams was a hallmark of my work for nearly 15 years.

As much as I loved and studied football, I knew that the only way anyone would buy into my analysis would be to show my work. This meant making everything as transparent as possible:

How I define everything I grade
The point values for my grading
The checklists/reports that I use for the grading
All the play-by-play notes I take for the games that I grade

That’s right, I show my work down to the play-by-play notes. The “back of the RSP” is often another 700-1000 pages of content that comes with the 250-page RSP pre-draft guide.

Don’t worry, at least half of my readers never look at this part of the RSP. However, those who like to cross-check their own scouting reports (be it media, draftniks, or scouts), find this material a worthwhile resource. Even if they don’t agree with all of my assessments, the back of the book gives them a clear indication of why I made the calls that I did.

You can learn more about the RSP here. If you want to see samples of the play-by-play notes I take to write the analysis, you can find them here.

If you don’t have time to look into details, know that once you look through the RSP, there will be no question in your mind that I do the work, that I have a plan about the work that I do, and that you get more than your money’s worth. It’s why more and more draftniks every spring can’t wait until April 1.

If you think that’s a ton, you ain’t seen nothing. When you purchase the RSP, you also get a free post-draft publication that’s available for download a week after the NFL Draft. Fantasy football owners tell me all the time that this alone is worth the price.

Best yet, 10 percent of each RSP sale is donated to Darkness to Light, a non-profit devoted to preventing and addressing sexual abuse through community training in schools, religious groups, and a variety of civic groups across the U.S.

Here is what the RSP donated to D2L this year. According to D2L, the RSP’s 2013 donation amount was enough to train 250 adults in communities across the country.

Pre-order the 2014 RSP and/or download past versions of the publication (2006-2012).

Reads (Football)

Recapping the News From Day 1 of Free Agency – Chase Stuart. If you don’t read him, you should.
How Have Previous Decker’s Fared? – It’s a Stuart two-fer.
Ken Whisenhunt Sees Dexter McCluster As RB – And I think Whiz gets it right.
Josh Norris on QB Class – Nice job by my friend doing some video work at Rotoworld.
Ryan Riddle’s UnderHyped Draft List – A nine-slide show at B/R.

Reads (Life In General)

The Complete Guide to Listening to Music at Work – What works while working; what doesn’t.
Freedom After 30 Years on Death Row – Example No. 1,49,598 why our criminal justice system is terribly flawed.
Clues Emerge for Tesla’s $5 Billion Battery Factory – The continuing sag of the Tesla automobile company.
18 Things Highly Creative People Do Differently
Belle Knox: Article No. 1 and Article No. 2
The Dark Power of Fraternities – I haven’t read it yet. Never had interest in joining a frat, but I do fear this might lean a little too left for me – and I lean left. We’ll see.

Listens – Norwegian Girl Channeling Billie Holiday

[youtube=http://youtu.be/2da7N6ADm9s]

Views

Futures: “I am smarter than ‘Phillip’ Rivers”

March 12, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft

The Wonderlic is great for testing future loan officers, but Matt Waldman would rather have Wonderlic failures like Jim Kelly or Ray Lewis as his on-field CEOs.

Futures: I Am Smarter Than “Phillip” Rivers

by Matt Waldman

“You scored a 32 –- that’s better than Phillip Rivers. He scored a 30. Rivers’ career quarterback rating –- at 95.8 -– ranks second-best all time, one point behind Steve Young (96.8) among NFL quarterbacks with at least 1500 pass attempts. He has a career total of eleven 4th quarter comebacks.”

Hey Nicholas Creative Media, LLC, Rivers spells his first name with one L. Does that make me smarter than you guys, or just more experienced with writing his name?

Considering that I can’t go a day without calling Derek Carr ‘David’ and I still refer to former Lions running back Jahvid Best as ‘Travis’ -– the former Indiana Pacer -– I’ll opt for the latter choice.

Nicholas Creative Media does do a good enough job describing the basic purpose of the Wonderlic Personnel Test:

“The test is a sort of IQ test to measure players’ aptitude for learning and problem solving. The possible score range is 1 to 50. The average football player scores around 20 points and scoring at least 10 points suggests a person is literate.”

But let’s dig a little deeper. Read the rest at Football Outsiders

QB Jimmy Garoppolo: Knockout

March 5, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback

For illustrations of the Standing Fetal Position Variation in the pocket, read on. Photo by Steven Mileham.

Jimmy Garoppolo’s draft stock in the media is gaining steam, but the quarterback is a player whose whole does not equal the sum of his parts.

In this week’s Futures, I wrote that scouting quarterbacks remains an untamed wilderness for the NFL. While easier for scouts to identify details like height, weight, arm strength, base accuracy, and mobility, it’s more difficult to quantify – or even qualify – that amount of sophistication that a player has when it comes to integrating these details on the field.

Reading defenses, pocket presence, touch, and placement are examples of this kind of sophistication. They aren’t easy to grade because they involve multiple variables that differ on every play.

Even so, if a team is honest and vigilant about identifying what it can – and should – spend time coaching, then it will do a better job scouting prospects. Having this kind of accurate self-assessment of its skills and priorities should help them elevate or reject prospects.

They should focus more on “knockout factors” in their scouting. Even if it’s not formalized in a scouting report or on paper, the better teams have a core identity that each player must match or he’s not on its draft board. The Ravens have it. I believe the Steelers have it. I suspect to some degree the Patriots and Seahawks do, too.

I’ve always considered having “knockout factors” in my scouting reports. Now that I’m almost 10 years into the RSP, I’m closer to incorporating them into my process. The reason I’ve waited is that a knockout factor has to be obvious.

I wouldn’t hire a musician with stage fright for a live performance. I don’t care how great his or her tone, range, rhythm, and phrasing is. I don’t care if he or she won a Grammy and an Oscar. If that person takes the stage, forgets the words, and begins hyperventilating, my decision was a huge mistake.

Certain elements of a quarterback’s game that are supposed to be the glue that hold the details together. If a quarterback lacks these elements, then I don’t care how many individual components of his game are impressive.

Ryan Riddle told On the Couch listeners this week that there tends to be more coaching of technique in college football than in the NFL. He explained that any finishing school of technique that happens in the NFL is based on peer and independent study.

It explains the existence of consultants like Chris Weinke and George Whitfield.

Just how realistic are teams about what it teach a player? Footwork, velocity, and knowledge of defenses? Sure.

How about learning not to freeze like a statue when a 320-pound defensive tackle tosses a guard aside like a lawn bag of leaves? Different story.

I fear that the way that Eastern Illinois quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo responds to pressure could be a fatal flaw for his NFL prospects. If I’m right, Garoppolo is a player whose whole does not equal the sum of his parts.

Phantom Pressure Haunting Garoppolo’s Process

This is a two-point conversion attempt in the first quarter versus a four-man front with one safety deep to the trips side of this 3×2 empty shotgun set. You’re going to see the quick drop and pump fake that are hallmarks of his game.

However, watch the pressure that circles behind Garoppolo. Although the tackle has this play under control, Garoppolo flushes left to an open space, throws the ball to the back of the end zone, and it’s too high of target for a reception in bounds.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=93&w=560&h=315]

There are two things that Garoppolo did to the detriment of this play. First, he reacted too fast to the pressure looping to his left. I shouldn’t even call this pressure, because the tackle has his opponent under control.

It’s phantom pressure and he reacts too fast and dropped his eyes from the end zone. At the same time, Garoppolo’s movement is to an open throwing lane, which is a good thing.

Additionally, this perception of pressure doesn’t prevent Garoppolo from returning his eyes to the receiver. However, the second problem with his reaction to the pressure is that he rushed his process to deliver the ball: he threw the ball too soon, too hard, and too high.

This is an example of a player who often executes these individual details with precision, but his perception of pressure triggers him to rush his process. To be fair, this is a minor example. Even top quarterbacks can rush their process after sliding to an open lane.

Here’s more muddled thinking on a 12 personnel twin receiver set with a thorough read-option fake. Garoppolo looks up the right hash and slides a step to his right before he feels pressure from the inside.

At this point Garoppolo reverses his field to the left and his plan of action lacks clarity. The quarterback sees the safety working up the hash from seven yards away, but never squares his hips and shoulders to throw the ball to the open man. When he realizes he can’t make the throw from his current position he is only option is try to get outside the safety.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=422&w=560&h=315]

The initial hesitation to square his body is another symptom of Garoppolo lacking a clear plan on the field when the initial play doesn’t work.

Here’s a more glaring example that concerns me. This is a play-action pass thrown 36 yards from Garoppolo’s release point to the receiver running the sideline fade. The pass lands outside the boundary and the root cause is Garoppolo’s release. The stance is wide enough, but notice how the quarterback never drives through the target.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=140&w=560&h=315]

Not only does Garoppolo fail to transfer his weight through his release, but he also delivers the ball leaning away from the line of scrimmage. If I could photoshop Jared Allen in a lunging position three steps from Garoppolo, the quarterback’s form would make sense.

This is the type of movement that I see from quarterbacks who are in a tight pocket, a hit is imminent, and there is no room to step through the release without the defender altering the throw and forcing an altered throw. Yet on this attempt, Garoppolo didn’t have a defender within range of making contact.

It’s another manifestation of a player who sees phantom pressure.

The Standing Fetal Position

The next play is one of the more damning examples of Garoppolo having brain freeze. It’s a first-quarter pass from an empty shotgun.

Garoppolo sets his feet within two steps after the snap while he’s looking up the left seam. Pressure turns the corner on the right tackle and eventually sacks the quarterback, but I don’t believe Garoppolo even feels the edge rush.

After multiple viewings, I believe the quarterback drops his head and shoulders into a crouch because he’s bracing himself for the oncoming bull rush from the defensive tackle.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=248&w=560&h=315]

There are three first reactions a quarterback can have in the face of middle pressure. The most common is to retreat – either turn tail and run or put it in reverse. The more advance option – when available – is to slide left or right while keeping the eyes down field and then climb to open space, if necessary.

Garoppolo exhibits the third option – the fetal position.

Granted, the quarterback opts for the standing variety as opposed to the full-blown, “put-my-thumb-in-my-mouth-and-read-me-a-bedtime-story,” fetal position. But even when Garoppolo realizes that he’s a beat away from a turf-nap and spins to his right, the initial frozen reaction affords the edge rush to reach the quarterback for the sack.

This isn’t an isolated play. These are three plays from the same quarter. I wish I could tell you this was a bad day from Garoppolo, but these are consistent tendencies in other games.

Here’s one of two I’ll show from the Tennessee State game (and there are more). This is a 10 personnel shotgun set with 2:47 in the first quarter with a three-step drop and shoulder fake to the inside trips receiver at the line of scrimmage.

Can you tell when Garoppolo senses the pressure on this play?

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTWi8kN8qnM&start=194&w=560&h=315]

Yup, it’s another game of freeze tag – except most kids get tagged and claim they weren’t. Garoppolo has the opposite problem. The pressure arrives outside the left tackle and the push up the middle forces the quarterback to drop his eyes and slide to the left.

Garoppolo checks down, the receiver juggles the ball and makes the catch, but he’s dropped for a loss. Another panicked pay.

The standing fetal position is almost as common as Garopplo’s penchant for pump fakes, but I’d rather see the ball fakes.

Here’s another strong example of this unfortunate maneuver after dropping from an 01 personnel shotgun set. Garoppolo feels the pressure from the defender working inside the left guard.

On this play, Garoppolo does a good job flushing to his right, but it’s a short-lived reaction. Once he sees the depth that the defensive end gets on the right tackle, Garoppolo drops his head and shoulders and freezes.

Unlike the previous play, he has time to work past that first reaction and spin outside his right tackle. Garoppolo reaches the edge and delivers the ball to the right sideline.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=252&w=560&h=315]

Garoppolo avoids the bad result, but his tendency to freeze first-react second is a red flag.

Coming Up Short On Potential Big Plays

As I said, it’s not just the NIU game where Garoppolo freezes like a deer in headlights. Here’s a red zone play against Tennessee State that should be a flashing red light of caution to NFL decision makers about giving this quarterback a top-100 grade.

This is a 3rd-and-goal with 8:54 in the first quarter from the opponent’s 2. Double A-gap pressure is working through the pocket as Garroppolo looks left after a one-step motion from the snap to set his feet.

Watch how early Garoppolo ducks his head and shoulders before the pressure arrives.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTWi8kN8qnM&start=120&w=560&h=315]

Not a good look. While better to take a sack than throw a red zone interception, it’s also far better to throw the ball away or climb the pocket and find an open man.

With 6:34 left and trailing, Garoppolo anticipates contact on a 2nd-and-16 at EIU’s 18. NIU sends six players – two off right guard.

Garroppolo executes a play fake from center, but as soon as he finishes his turn from the fake exchange, he anticipates contact and goes into the standing fetal position before moving into the full fetal soon after.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=777&w=560&h=315]

I understand “live for another play,” but this is the end of the game and it’s time to fight; not give up.

Here’s a red zone play in the fourth quarter from 20 personnel. Garoppolo throws the slant, but the edge pressure forces Garoppolo to alter his release and the ball comes out funny.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=722&w=560&h=315]

A clear case of Garoppolo rushing his process. I feel bad highlighting this play in today’s football environment, because don’t referees tell boxers to protect themselves at all times? Still, you don’t see this behavior among most NFL starters.

To be fair, Garoppolo will take a hit. However, I believe he only follows through with any consistency on two set conditions. Here’s a shotgun pass with a three-step drop facing five-man pressure.

Garoppolo looks to the right hash and just gets the ball off as he’s hammered off the edge. The receiver makes the catch and earns yardage as a runner.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=533&w=560&h=315]

It is an example of Garoppolo taking a hit, but there are two conditions in play: The impending hit is coming off the edge so Garoppolo doesn’t see the hit coming and the route was wide open.

More Eyes; Less Body

Garoppolo often wins because of his pace and misdirection. His drops and releases are touted first and foremost.

Combine this pacing with a play fake or a pump fake, and he can put defenders on their heels in the short game. But Garoppolo needs a change-up or teams will catch on and know that the pump fake is the quarterback’s substitute for looking off the opposition.

This 4th-and-8 pass with 2:11 in the first quarter is a shotgun pass were Garoppolo uses a pump fake before delivering the slant, but he stares down the receiver and the trailing corer undercuts the pass for an interception.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=367&w=560&h=315]

Here’s another with 5:07 in the half. Garoppolo takes two steps to set his feet and pump fakes to the shallow cross. Only one of the two linebackers bite on the pump fake and when Garoppolo targets the deeper cross, the defense deflects the target.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=466&w=560&h=315]

Pace and manipulation are excellent tools for an NFL quarterback, but even what Peyton Manning does is often predictable. The difference is that a lot of teams lack the total defense to stop him. Garoppolo is not Peyton Manning and he’s not facing a defense the caliber of the Seattle Seahawks.

Is it impossible for Garappolo to address his pocket presence? Of course not. Have I ever seen it when the issues are this dramatic? Not in recent memory.

As critical as I am about what I perceive to be a critical lack of nuance to his game, I want Garoppolo to succeed. However, if I were a decision-maker for a team I’d rather be proven wrong with him playing elsewhere.

No matter how high the sum of his total of parts may be on some scouting reports, he wouldn’t be on my board.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – available to pre-order now, and for download April 1. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Scouting QBs: Separating the Dark From the Dark

March 5, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Matt Waldman, Players, Quarterback

Being wrong about Gabbert far hurts the ego, but helps my process. Photo by PDA.Photo.

After spending an insane amount of time during the last decade studying players, talking with scouts, and paying attention to history, I have learned three things about evaluating football talent:

Scouting and quarterbacking are about detail and nuance.
Experience matters, but not like you think.
Quarterback remains the untamed wilderness of football evaluation.

These are my personal lessons. No one shared these three points as teachable nuggets from the book of scouting. The last two insights are unintended consequences of professionals making opposite statements.

After 10 years of studying football games, I have gained enough experience to see that I’m not an expert. As the great poet Philip Levine wrote, I’ve “begun to separate the dark from the dark.”

Today, I’m sharing these degrees of darkness about scouting quarterbacks. The hope is that separating the dark from the dark may one day provide a process that is a more reliable way to find the light.

Detail and Nuance

During one of our frequent phone conversations, Footballguys.com co-owner Sigmund Bloom and I concluded that the simplest way to describe good quarterbacking is to compare it to another job. Cooks and musicians offer good parallels, but the best is that of a skilled craftsman.

I used to build sets at a theater. I learned how to use a wide variety of tools. I even gained some welding experience.

Give me directions and materials and a garage full of tools and I can assemble something bought at a store after I’ve taken it apart at least once. But I’m not the guy you want to help you with a home improvement project or a repair. Unless it’s the simplest of tasks, I’d be pulled from the job within an hour.

On the other hand, give my wife Alicia a small toolbox with half the tools and she’ll not only have the job completed with time to spare, she’ll also have spotted and addressed two other problems around your house that you didn’t know about. She didn’t start working on houses until her early 30s, but within three years she owned her own remodeling company and did everything but electric and plumbing.

You need tools to do a job, but nuance to do the job well. I had all the tools, but none of the nuance. Alicia had half the tools and a ton of nuance.

Good quarterbacking is craftsmanship. There are a basic minimum of tools (details) to complete the job: height, weight, speed, arm strength, accuracy, etc. However the craftsman integrates the tools, his knowledge, and his experience to execute at the highest level of performance.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

RSP Publication Update

March 3, 2014 0 Comments read RSP Publication

The RSP is to draft analysis as Matt Forte is to NFL running backs - versatile, underrated, and appreciated by those in the know. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga. — The RSP is to draft analysis as Matt Forte is to NFL running backs – versatile, underrated, and appreciated by those in the know. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.

The RSP is still on schedule for reader download on April 1.

I finished my last budgeted game of film study Friday night. Here is the rough list of players who will appear in the pre-draft publication. There are a handful of players who have not declared for the draft on this list. They will appear in the 2015 RSP.

There are also a handful of prospects I didn’t have a chance to study prior to my research deadline. Among them are quarterbacks Jordan Lynch, Tom Savage, and Keith Price. I’ll be studying them for the RSP Post-Draft Add-on, which you get free with purchase of the pre-draft publication.

For those of you new to the RSP, the April 1 publication ranks players on talent without regard to character or “draft stock”. The Post-Draft Add-on gives a pragmatic perspective to rankings based on the NFL Draft and is available for download a week after the draft.

I tell my readers that the pre-draft is the purer analysis. Three years from now, a player’s round of selection will mean much less than it will two months from now.

Sometimes, it happens three months after the draft: Marlon Brown, Kenbrell Thompkins, and Alfred Morris are all players that you wouldn’t find much about in most publications because they weren’t even considered “the supporting cast” on draft day. I have not have ranked them in my top-10, but I gave them prominent attention and ranking devoid of the class warfare that is draft status.

You’ll want to know about a player’s talent based on game film and football beat writers often lack the time, space, and knowledge to tell you. If you’re lucky, they’ll tell you where the player came from, when he was drafted (if at all), and some old stat or one-liner about his physical skills.

The savvy ones get the RSP.

You can order the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio now and I’ll email you when its available for download on April 1 (sometimes earlier for those who order before that date). The Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and is available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 2/28/2014

February 28, 2014 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

Joe Montana's legendary cool-under-fire humor reminds me of Bill Murray in Stripes. Wouldn't you want him saving the world? Read on. Photo by David Shankbone. — Joe Montana’s legendary cool-under-fire humor reminds me of Bill Murray in Stripes. Wouldn’t you want him saving the world? Read on. Photo by David Shankbone.

This Week’s RLV: Why the RSP shows its work, Chase Stuart’s Combine MVP, and one funky spider.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/edUGRcKHccA]

What is Reads Listens Views?

If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog, welcome. Every Friday, I post links to content I’m saving for later reading when I have time. You may not like everything listed here, but you’re bound to like something.

In Case You Missed It

: Who would you pick to defend the planet in a science fiction football game? Photo by Frankula.

I posed this fantastical question to Ryan Riddle and Sigmund Bloom the other day: If an alien race came to earth and challenged the human race to a game of football with the planet on the line, who would be your starting quarterback?

I have my answer, but I want to hear yours.

I don’t care how you imagine the aliens. Nor do I care if you pick a player who is 60 or six feet under and the aliens resurrect/revive him to his peak physical powers. That dilemma is for your twisted imagination.

I just want to know who you pick.

Here’s the follow-up question: If the aliens’ deal is that we have to pick a quarterback from this 2014 draft class, who would it be? I’ll be holding a tournament to decide. Make your nomination here.

Thank You

You picked this guy high despite a nagging injury if you followed the 2013 RSP. Photo by John Martinez-Paviliga

Friday’s are also my chance to thank you for reading my work, encourage you to follow the RSP blog, and download the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

Rankings
Draft history analysis
Overrated/Underrated analysis
Multidimensional player comparisons
Individual skills analysis by position

As much as I loved and studied football, I knew that the only way anyone would buy into my analysis would be to show my work. This meant making everything as transparent as possible:

How I define everything I grade
The point values for my grading
The checklists/reports that I use for the grading
All the play-by-play notes I take for the games that I grade

That’s right, I show my work down to the play-by-play notes. The “back of the RSP” is often another 700-1000 pages of content that comes with the 250-page RSP pre-draft guide.

Don’t worry, at least half of my readers never look at this part of the RSP. However, those who like to crosscheck their own scouting reports (be it media, draftniks, or scouts), find this material a worthwhile resource. Even if they don’t agree with all of my assessments, the back of the book gives them a clear indication of why I made the calls that I did.

You can learn more about the RSP here. If you want to see samples of the play-by-play notes I take to write the analysis, you can find them here.

Here is what the RSP donated to D2L this year. According to D2L, the RSP’s 2013 donation amount was enough to train 250 adults in communities across the country.

Pre-order the 2014 RSP and/or download past versions of the publication (2006-2012).

Reads (Football)

Pittsburgh’s Aaron Donald Was Your Combine MVP – Chase Stuart scrambling them eggs like a master chef – except those eggs are data. Fine analysis.
If I were scouting an NFL QB – This is an article Chris Brown recommended Thursday. It’s a must-read if you want real insight into a flawed scouting process.
2014 NFL Draft: Bob McGinn’s Anonymous NFL Exec Interviews – Speaking of some of the people accountable for the poor allocation of resources and lack of training . . .
The Notebook: Jadeveon Clowney is ready to be molded into a monster – Stephen White is a former NFL defensive tackle whose writing at SB Nation. Worth a read.

Reads (Life In General)

10 Painfully Obvious Truths Everyone Forgets Too Soon – H/T Keith Overton for sharing.
There is no white boogeyman – I agree, but I do believe the boogeyman is a collective system that’s undergoing a slow, painful change.
This Old Man – Life in the nineties. H/T to Steph Stradley

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/ZhNOJKXTVVs]

Futures: 2014 Speed Score Leaders

February 27, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back

Where Bo Jackson 2.0 could be made . . . photo by Dancelilsister.

If I had a laboratory fitting of a mad scientist, Football Outsiders’ Speed Score would have its application. What about now?

Futures: The 2014 Speed Score Leaders

By Matt Waldman

Indulge me in a bit of fantasy. Imagine an old football field. It’s a practice field at the rear of an abandoned high school with woods surrounding it on three sides. Behind the north goal post is an equipment building no bigger than a backyard storage shed with a green tin roof, white cinderblock, and a steel blue door held three-quarters shut with a rusted chain and pad lock.

Squeeze inside this dark, dilapidated building and you’ll find Craig James’ concussed son -– wrong story. Let’s try again…

Squeeze inside this cobweb-filled space and you’ll find nothing but a bench press station with a torn vinyl cushion. Reach into the tear of the cushion and there’s a switch that opens a trap door in the floor near the entrance that reveals a long, torch-lit spiral staircase made of stone that leads to the secret laboratory of M. Waldman, mad scientist of offensive skill talent.

The demented (but good) doctor is pouring over plans to create Bo Jackson 2.0. He has set up shop in the southeastern United States because of regional and socio-economic factors that point to it as the best area to produce a rare athlete for the game. He’s hacked into the medical records of pediatrician offices and narrowed the field of candidates to boys who are projected to develop into young men between five-foot-nine and six-foot-one and have the skeletal-muscular potential to carry 210-to-225 lbs.

Like a formula to determine the tensile stress of a material for an engineering firm, Football Outsiders’ Speed Score would have an ideal application in M. Waldman’s secret lab. The problem wouldn’t be constructing the running backs, but preventing Nick Saban from breaking them before they reach the NFL.

In the reality of the NFL Draft, the Speed Score provides a layer of analysis that illuminates the players with desirable physical skills. The idea is a fine one: if they’re big and explosive, they’ll have the strength-speed-agility to measure on a spectrum that ends with terminates at Bo Jackson.

But we know that good running backs come in all shapes and sizes. Darren Sproles and Brandon Jacobs illustrate how the range of height, weight, speed, strength, and agility of successful players at the position is wider than any in the NFL.

The differences in size are also indicative of the specialization of the position that has evolved over the years. The New Orleans Saints three different types of runners on its depth chart:

Darren Sproles — A hybrid of a scat-back, slot receiver, and return specialist.
Pierre Thomas — A utility back that does his best work in pass protection, draws, and screens.
Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson — Traditional power backs who do best with a high volume of touches.

The Patriots, Cardinals, Bengals, Colts, Chargers, Panthers, Lions, and Falcons have at least two runners with roles that may blend in some places, but have distinct separation of labor in others. Based on recent drafts, one could argue that the Packers, 49ers, and Washington had similar aspirations.

Specialization offers more avenues for a variety of physical talents at the running back position to earn a roster spot. However, it doesn’t create more opportunities for running backs overall.

There’s a lot of talent on the street that can enter an NFL locker room, exit the tunnel to the field on Sunday afternoon, post 80-100 yards, and help a team win a game. The fact that Thomas and Robinson -– two UDFAs -– are viable options is a testament to this point.

Joique Bell, Alfred Morris and Arian Foster’s numbers all sound the refrain that a quality NFL running back often requires a lot less of what we emphasize as “good foot-speed.” There’s another type of speed that these three possess that is as important as foot-speed, agility, balance, and vision –- “processor speed.”

It’s an attribute often linked with vision –- a quality that is difficult to quantify unless one deconstructs “vision” into definable components. I still link processor speed with vision –- it’s the mental speed that a football player sees the position of the players on the field, links it to the game situation, and executes the appropriate physical reaction to the this environment-stimuli.

Processor speed enhances on-field speed. Watch a tentative or confused player and subtract tenths of a second of his execution time. While you’re at it, begin subtracting positive plays, playing time, and ultimately a contract with the team.

Clean, consistent technique is another factor that enhances on-field speed. There are receivers with 4.3-speed that cannot separate from cornerbacks because they cannot run clean routes. However, there are much slower pass catches whose routes are so good that they earn separation as if they had great foot-speed.

There’s no silver bullet or code to crack that will yield accurate projections of rookie prospects with quantifiable precision. Because the mad scientist’s football laboratory is only a pipe-dream, it’s important to view players that score high on Football Outsiders’ Speed Score within the context of the rest of their skills.

Nevertheless, the 2014 version of the Speed Score offers an intriguing quartet of players at its top: Oklahoma’s Damien Williams, Georgia Southern’s Jerick McKinnon, Stanford’s Tyler Gaffney, and Notre Dame’s George Atkinson. I’m not convinced all four have a place in the NFL, but even before Aaron Schatz asked me to write about them, I thought each offered an intriguing storyline.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

No-Huddle Series: David Fales, Developmental Gem?

February 20, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback

Can San Jose State quarterback David Fales develop more velocity on this throws like Drew Brees? Read on.

Eric Stoner at Draft Mecca is one of the first draftniks I know who watched David Fales and liked his game. I do, too. When I talked about what I saw in the 6-1, 22o-lb.starter at San Jose State to a scout I know, his response was that Fales has a “niche market” – and the scout includes himself in that group.

RSP: I’m digging on David Fales as a developmental guy at QB. I think he can learn to drive off that front foot earlier and integrate it to gm

Scout:Hah, I love Fales as a developmental guy; he’s an enigma though at times.

RSP: There are times when he anticipates and then simpler plays where he hesitates. Then plays against Cover 3 where I’m scream at the TV – CHECK-DOWN! Still, I love that he wants to bust your ass if you blitz him – Love that attitude.

Scout: He’s got a good head on his shoulders and seems to have some instincts; he will sail throws trying to compensate for arm strength though.

RSP; I think his footwork is really off. I was watching him vs. Brees just 10 minutes ago on some similar throws. Brees’ front foot comes down well before he finishes the follow-through. Fales’ front foot doesn’t’ come down until the ball is nearly out. He doesn’t drive off that front leg and the ball sails and lacks velocity on some throws.

Scout: A lot of times the footwork/stride stuff is an issue for a guy who doesn’t have a feel for when to zip it vs use touch.

RSP: And I see that. Up the middle, he’s pretty good. He can get into the 40-yard range with some zip at times. He often struggles on these throws down the middle he has to climb and his feet don’t get settled. But on the perimeter? Sometimes he can’t deliver a good ball not much more than 30 yards.

Scouts: He has a bad habit of not driving balls outside; I saw it pretty clearly in Senior Bowl up in the crow’s nest with [deleted]. Yeah, he’s a pretty niche market guy, but I still like him well enough to say he could be a No.3 right away with solid potential.

Here are a few things that I’ve seen in recent weeks-months that led me to broach the topic of Fales. These are visual examples of some of the things discussed above.

Pocket Presence and Aggressive Mentality

This is a 1st and 10 pass with 9:23 in the first quarter from a 2×2 receiver, 10 personnel shotgun set versus the San Diego State Aztecs. The ball is at the 35 of the opponent’s left hash and the defense is playing a 3-3-5 look with no safety deep. Five defenders at at the line of scrimmage, including two edge rushers standing up outside the tackles.

On this play Fales takes a three-step drop looking left as the defense sends all five defenders to the pocket. As he finishes this three-step drop, his focus turns to the middle of the field. Fales’ eye manipulation and skill at working through multiple receivers during a drop back is a consistent part of his game.

As Fales finishes his drop, pressure form the edge takes an inside track to the pocket. Fales does a good job of climbing inside the defender and throwing the ball from the 42 of San Diego State’s left hash to the eight. The receiver is running a post breaking to the middle of the field.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZigsJdm75M&start=78&w=560&h=315]

Although the receiver drops this target – a pass that is catchable, it’s a low throw. What I like about the throw is the placement between the S and the CB. What’s disappointing is that if Fales delivered this ball with more velocity and on a line, he could have hit the receiver in stride beyond the saety and inside the corner for a touchdown.

This is the type of throw a starter at the NFL drives on a line for a score and has commentators drooling over the throw. If Fales can develop a better arm to drive the ball 40-45 yards rather only 34 yards, his pocket presence, field vision, and anticipation make him a promising player.

Here’s another example of Fales splitting the zone defenders after addressing pressure. This is a 3rd-and-12 with 1:55 in the third quarter from a 2×2 receiver, 10-personnel shotgun set with the ball at the 45 of San Jose State.

The Aztecs’ defense is once again using a 3-3-5 look. Fales takes a three-step drop facing four defenders attacking the pocket. He looks left, turns right, and hitches a step before throwing the crossing route that splits two defenders in zone for an 18-yard completion and a first down.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZigsJdm75M&start=610&w=560&h=315]

Extrapolate the velocity of this throw to the first highlight and you see the possibilities for Fales if he can achieve greater arm strength and velocity. If not, this range of 18-30 yards will be what he does best.

It’s a range that’s good enough for Fales to provide services as a valued backup – especially a player with his pocket presence, anticipation, and aggressive mentality. I love that Fales often sees the open field the blitz has left behind and he loves to get rid of the ball fast to take advantage of it.

When the play allows Fales to drop the ball in the bucket with distance and touch rather than distance and velocity, the San Jose State quarterback does this as well as any quarterback in this class. However at this point, Fales’ eyes often exceed his arm.

There are situations where I watch Fales forgo the check-down to a running back and he’ll wait an extra beat to attack down field to the detriment of the play because he lacks the gun to hit his receiver on-time an in a tight window from that range. His tight-window accuracy is good, but when the velocity fails, Fales falters.

Development Opportunity: Footwork

One of the ways Fales misses receivers in the deep-intermediate and deep zones is overthrows. I’m sure this seems counter-intuitive after I just explained that Fales’ lacks velocity on deeper throws. However, overthrows are the result of a quarterback trying to push the ball with mechanics that aren’t tight enough to deliver the ball on a line.

This 1st and 10 with 13:50 in the game is a good example. Fales and the offices is in an 11 personnel shotgun set with the ball at the 17 of from a 2×1 receiver, 11-personnel shotgun set against the Aztec’s one-deep safety over a 3-3-5 look.

San Diego State sends five men to the pocket – three from the left side as Fales drops looking to the middle. Fales sees what he wants and off the third step of his drop, he sets and delivers the ball from the right hash at the San Jose State 9 to the 48 of San Diego State – a 43-yard throw from release point to potential catch point.

However, the pass is thrown too far and one of the problems is the arc on the ball. Fales’ effort to throw the ball for distance sacrifices the low-arc needed to reach the receiver who is open by a step.

One of the problems is Fales’ feet as he delivers the ball. He’s not driving off that front foot before the ball leaves his hand. Instead, the ball is leaving as he’s still transferring his weight. Watch how his feet move with a rougher, stilted motion as the ball comes out.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZigsJdm75M&start=647&w=560&h=315]

Now compare Fales’ motion with a player like Drew Brees, a fine deep thrower and a guy of similar dimensions who got better with his velocity after leaving Purdue. My suggestion, refresh your browser each time to queue the Fales throw and Brees throw if comparing the two.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VWV_-devqQ&start=11&w=560&h=315]

Brees’ time on his front foot while delivering the ball is much longer than Fales’. Brees is driving off that foot. Fales has to learn to do this with all of his throws.

If the rookie was forced to start in the NFL today, teams would force him to make plays beyond the limitations of his range and he would look like a sub par player. However, give Fales 2-3 years to integrate this footwork into every throw, add some muscle, and gain more understanding of more complex defensive looks, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this prospect offers value to a team as a primary backup.

And if the arm strength gets a lot better, I wouldn’t be shocked if Fales knocks on the door of that NFL starter club.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – available to pre-order now. The 2014 RSP will available for download April 1. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.