Posts tagged 2014 NFL Draft

Boiler Room: CU WR Paul Richardson

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Wide Receiver
Colorado receiver Paul Richardson may need to add meat to his bones, but he can ball. Photo by Jeremy Kunz.
Colorado receiver Paul Richardson may need to add meat to his bones, but he can ball. Photo by Jeremy Kunz.

“Have you seen Paul Richardson yet?” You’re about to see why I’ve been asked this question by a follower multiple times since August.

Last week, I finally watched two games of the Colorado receiver and I get it, Richardson has flash to his game. You’ll see what I mean if you’ve never heard of the junior who has declared for the 2014 NFL Draft. I’m sold on his ability, but there is a lingering question I’ll have until he proves otherwise: Can Richardson get bigger?

Listed at 6-1, 170 lbs., Richardson doesn’t appear to have the frame to withstand punishment at the position. Anecdotal precedent brings to mind a former second-round pick of the Philadelphia Eagles in the 2000 NFL Draft who was known for his excellent hands and routes, but at 6-3, 180 lbs., Todd Pinkston was rail thin for an NFL receiver. And if I recall correctly, Pinkston wasn’t 180 until 2-3 years into his career.

Pinkston gave teammates and fans a hint of his skills throughout his five-year career, including a 60-catch, 798-yard, 7-score season in 2002. However, the Eagles’ receiver also had some well-publicized moments of alligator arms. It was an issue I don’t recall Pinkston having until he became an NFL veteran and I wouldn’t be surprised if it had to do with his skinny frame.

Adding weight is an obvious answer, but there are some individuals who have a difficult time adding it. I always wondered if Pinkston was one of them – he fit the body time. Richardson says he can get bigger, stronger, and faster when he enters the NFL. I hope he’s right, because he has the baseline skills and athleticism to develop into an NFL starter who can stretch defenses to its limit.

The Boiler Room is a series devoted to providing readers a glimpse of a prospect through a single highlight that encapsulates a great deal about a player’s skills. One play hardly ever tells the full story of a player, but if you watch enough of a prospect, you can get a feel for the plays that will do that player justice if you could only show one.

The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round. Richardson’s ability makes him a candidate to go this early, but the fact he’s a junior, missed much of his sophomore year, and others might also have concerns about his size, don’t make the early rounds a guarantee.

Richardson’s Play: Speed, Quickness, Concentration, and Hand-Eye Coordination

The play I chose highlights the base skills that makes Richardson one of the better college receivers in the country. It’s a 1st-and-10 catch for 28 yards with 0:52 in the first quarter. Richardson is the outside receiver on the left side of a 30 personnel pistol set. The cornerback plays a yard off the line of scrimmage and is shaded slightly inside. Based on the position of the safety, who is closer to the defensive end in his alignment well inside the left hash, this is single coverage for Richardson.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezRBYbkChgQ&start=131w=420&h=315]

Richardson’s release isn’t technically amazing, but it demonstrates a player with skills to build on. He takes two short steps off the line to the inside and then begins his burst outside. Richardson uses his inside arm to slip inside the defender’s body, gaining separation up the numbers and to the flat. By the time the Buffaloes receiver gets 13 yards down field, he has a full step on the defender. [Subsequent note: the defender is Ifo Ekpre-Olumu, one of the best cornerbacks in college football, and a personal favorite of mine]

Early separation will need to be a hallmark of Richardson’s game in the NFL even if he adds weight and gets stronger, because I’m skeptical he’ll gain more than 10-15 pounds of good weight. A player like Jordy Nelson or Anquan Boldin can bang with a corner while working down-field and win position late. It’s unlikely Richardson will ever be that kind of player. It means Richardson will need to demonstrate to a quarterback that he is a reliable route runner who can win the trust of his passer on plays that don’t appear wide-open early.

What’s most impressive about Richardson’s game is his skill as a pass catcher. The receiver is in full stride as the ball arrives, but the corner has Richardson’s inside arm pinned to Richardson’s side. Not does this move up the difficulty of the target, but it can distract a receiver from an attempt to make a play.

Not Richardson. The receiver extends for the ball with his outside arm, making a diving catch. He also manages to secure the ball with one arm before he lands and doesn’t lose security after rebounding off the turf.

It’s a beautiful play. It’s also what this play isn’t that concerns me. It isn’t a route into the teeth of the defense where there will be an impending hit from a safety or linebacker. Those situations will be the bellwether of Richardson’s role in the NFL: a contributor as a deep threat lacking that final dimension to thrive as an every-down starter or a primary threat capable of making plays anywhere on the field.

There are plenty of good receivers over the past 20 years who weighed less than 180 lbs. in the NFL, but most of them were in the height range of 5-8 to 5-10 and their frames were more compact. At 6-1, 170 lbs., I hope Richardson is right about getting bigger and stronger – he’s too much fun to watch not to see him play every down.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: South Carolina DE Jadeveon Clowney

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players

[youtube=http://youtu.be/jrDGmnQXLgE]

Let’s presume for a moment that the claim Clowney “mailed it in” this year to protect his business interests is true. Does it matter? 

“That’s weird, a Michigan helmet just rolled into my room.”
– Grabhammer, YouTube (May 2013)

Nope. Not weird at all, Grabhammer. I saw the Wolverine football hardware on my street heading north sometime in early February. It was moving so fast the facemask got caught on the edge of a manhole cover and pried the thing loose like a can opener popping the cap on a Yuengling.

The good people of Tennessee say it caused an eight-car pileup on I-75; folks in Kentucky blamed it for rolling power outages; and in the report filed with the Coast Guard, a fisherman on Lake Erie mistook the helmet for the Loch Ness Monster. I’m just relieved to hear it finally came to a stop before anyone was seriously injured.

While none of us reporting these events have visual proof of this helmet’s odyssey – an improbable journey of three and one-quarter longitudinal laps around the earth that spanned approximately 74,945 miles before it rolled to a stop in Grabhammer’s man cave – scientists have a working theory of how it happened. They have traced its beginnings – the launch event – to January 1, 2013 in Tampa, Florida.

Launch Event. I couldn’t think of a better description of what happens to Michigan running back Vincent Smith and his helmet on this 1st-and-10 play with 8:22 left in the Outback Bowl against South Carolina.

The ESPN caption of the universally viewed YouTube clip I’m about to share reads “a rush for a loss of 8 yards.” It’s technically correct, but how does one classify what happens above as a “rush” if Smith never took a step with ball in his hands? “Rush attempt” is a more accurate description. After all, Michigan did at least try a running play. There are options I like more: Mugging. Ball jacking. Annihilation.

Yet there isn’t a better term to describe the play that sent this Michigan Wolverine helmet into a temporary orbit around the earth than the phrase “Launch Event.” The ignition for the world’s first momentum-powered land-based satellite is South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. For those of you who just got out of solitary confinement, here is this proper introduction to the best prospect of the 2014 NFL Draft.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gC44nP7ClxM&w=560&h=315]

Before scientists defined the travels of this maize and blue helmet as an orbit, fantasy football writer Ryan Boser artfully named this play the “Jacapitation.” Actually, he used the past verb tense “Jacapitated,” as in “Vincent Smith’s helmet, and any sense of bravado he once possessed as a big-time college football player, was Jacapitated from his head on the afternoon of January 1, 2013.”

Clowney is a game-changing talent. Kirk Herbstreit sums it up best when he says that Clowney is to the defensive end position what Calvin Johnson is to wide receiver.

Click here to read the rest at Football Outsiders

No Huddle Series: Missouri WR L’Damien Washington

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
L'Damien Washington has the build and athleticism of A.J. Green, but he needs to go to finishing school to model this NFL star's game. Photo by Wade Rackley
L’Damien Washington has the build and athleticism of A.J. Green, but he needs to go to finishing school to model this NFL star’s game. Photo by Wade Rackley

The 2014 installment of this series begins with a rough around the edges receiver with the physical talents of A.J. Green and Justin Hunter.

The No Huddle Series is an on-field profile of prospects with the talent to develop into NFL contributors, but they are projected as talents with mid-to-late round draft grades. The 2014 installment of this series begins with Missouri’s L’Damien Washington, a rough around the edges receiver with the physical talents of A.J. Green and Justin Hunter. In the neighborhood of 6’5″, 204 lbs. and a stopwatch speed in the 40 around 4.35-4.4, there’s more to Washington than his Underwear Olympics portfolio that catches my attention.

Washington plays with reckless abandon, contributes on special teams, and despite gaps with his catching technique, he has good hands. If I’m a part of an organization that believes in targeting high-upside players that it can teach the skills to play the position – and knows without reservation that its coaches have the track record of developing said raw lumps of clay – Washington is exactly the type of player I’m targeting.

Athletic Grace And Focus

This touchdown on 1st and goal with 6:30 in the third quarter against Texas A&M is one of the best catches I have seen in college football this year.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kG-tShgiIL0&?start=346w=560&h=315]

It requires watching the replays to get a true feel for how good this catch on the corner fade is. The extension to high-point the ball and get a foot in bounds is impressive, but it’s garden-variety athleticism for a top prospect at the position. What I love is the concentration. Watch cornerback get his hand on the ball just as Washington begins to secure the ball after the initial catch at the high point of the target.

The receiver never loses focus despite the defender forcing Washington to fight to secure the ball. This is something Washington has to do while in mid-turn to shield the ball from his opponent. There are a lot of impressive facets of athleticism, focus, and toughness at play here. The full extension, the hand strength, the turn, the boundary awareness, and even the awareness to wrap the arm around the ball after his bound rebounds off the turf are all displays of skills integration that is difficult to teach. A coach might be able to teach a receiver to each of these things separately, but to layer them into one play and deal with a defender touching the ball at the most vulnerable point of the catch in the process of executing this play is impressive.

Washington’s willingness to lay out for the ball isn’t a one-time display. Here is a 3rd-and-six slant with 2:25 in the half where he faces a cornerback playing tight to the line of scrimmage.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kG-tShgiIL0&start=123w=560&h=315]

The first thing I like about this play is the break on the route. Washington is not a refined route runner at this stage of his career. I often see him raise his pads too soon on releases, which tips off his break, and I don’t see an urgency to his releases that will force a defender to bail deep and set up shorter breaks.

Washington can learn these skills. The athleticism is there and this play reveals a hint of it. Watch him take two small steps up field and explode inside with a hard break. It’s a miniscule part of this quick route, but there’s intensity and precision to the move that he needs to incorporate into other routes.

As the ball arrives, Washington extends his body parallel to the ground and makes a diving catch towards the oncoming safety at the first down marker. Although he traps the ball to his body, his hands make contact with the ball first and he has no fear of contact from the defensive back over top. Once again, you can’t teach a willingness to put your body in harm’s way. It’s something Washington and Green have in common.

This 37-yard gain against man coverage in the Florida game is an example of a decent release that Washington needs to build on. It’s a 1st and 10 play with 8:45 in the third quarter as the single receiver in a 3×1, 10 personnel shotgun set.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIngLBgVge4&?start=292w=420&h=315]

Washington and his quarterback set up a subtle double move on this play. The quarterback takes his drop looking to the trips receiver side as Washington gives a quick shoulder fake to the inside and then accelerates up the sideline. Although it doesn’t seem like much, Washington’s fake is quick and thorough enough to momentarily freeze the defender and it gives the receiver a step.

I like how Washington uses his inside arm to frame and enforce this separation from the trailing defender. The receiver catches the ball over his inside shoulder and turns inside the numbers with a nice dip to avoid the safety. Although he doesn’t break the tackle of the trailing cornerback, he drags the defender another five yards and maintains a grip on the ball as the Florida Gator swats at it relentlessly. Three years from now, Washington probably has an additional 5-10 pounds of muscle that will make this tackle even more difficult for a cornerback to make.

Press-Release Technique

Washington is willing to use his hands against press coverage, but his technique needs more refinement. Right now, it appears as if he doesn’t have a grasp of the variety of moves he can use and when to use them. Here’s a play against Florida where he turns an out into a streak and the play ends with the ball bouncing off his chest near the end line. Although I’ll talk about the end of this play in more detail, the first thing I want you to see is the initial release.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIngLBgVge4&?start=190w=420&h=315]

Watch the replay and you’ll see where Washington’s problems begin. When the defender presents an obstacle during the release, Washington doesn’t use his inside arm to work through the defender. Instead, he uses his right arm to cross over and make contact. This type of move compromises a receiver’s balance, slows his stride, and has no real strength behind it.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to find out that Washington is right-handed and this move is a product of him not having release techniques ingrained into his game. It’s a reaction to the defender and the result is an awkward move that has little impact. In fact, the way Washington earns initial separation is with his left arm as he makes the break outside. But by the time Washington achieves this distance the route is breaking open late, the quarterback is under pressure, and Washington now has to run another route to work open.

This is why it’s so important for a player to have refined technique. Washington is tall, strong, and fast, but if he has to think about what to do rather than have practiced methods that are second-nature reactions, it hinders the execution of a play.

The second half of the play is worth discussing in theory despite the fact that Washington steps on the boundary well before he reaches the end zone on this route adjustment and a penalty would have nullified any catch he could have made. What I don’t like about the end of his play is Washington’s attempt to catch the ball over his shoulder rather than turn back to the ball and make an aggressive attempt to snare the target. It’s possible the velocity of the throw was hard to gauge and Washington makes the wrong call based on this factor, but it’s also a passive attempt to “receive” the ball rather than fight to “catch” it.

When the ball arrives, Washington still has to open his inside shoulder to the trailing defender and this gives the defender a lane to break up the target. If Washington turns to face the ball and tries to highpoint it, he has a better shot on this play. This play isn’t a result of Washington fearing contact, just not having a feel for what to do on the play.

This route against Texas A&M is another demonstration of a talented athlete in need of better release technique. Washington is the single receiver at the right numbers with the cornerback playing tight and with a slight shade to the outside of the receiver on this 2nd and 10 at the A&M 47 with 1:56 in the half.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kG-tShgiIL0&?start=116w=560&h=315]

Washington takes an outside release, but the corner presses the receiver drives Washington too far outside. There’s no chance Washington gets down field in time to make a play on this ball.  If the receiver dips his outside shoulder away from the source of the press and drives through his release with the acceleration he’s capable of using, his position will force the defender to relinquish contact or incur a penalty.

Another technique would have been to rip through the contact, but Washington unintentionally sustains the contact. The Missouri receiver is still playing with the mindset that he’s strong enough to push a defender off him with raw strength and hasn’t mastered how to use leverage. This is a college football mindset of a big-time athlete. He needs to learn a professional mindset of winning against opponents who are athletically on a more even playing field.

I for one believe Washington can learn these skills. If he does, he could become a star. I’m talking optimum scenarios here. I think a more reasonable expectation for Washington is for him to develop into a starter in 3-4 years and provide a team 40-60 catches, 600-800 yards, and 5-7 touchdowns as a secondary option that can stretch the field the same way a healthy Sidney Rice does in Seattle.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures – Intuition and Process: FSU RB Karlos Williams

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back
Predictably, Peterson was the type of player that could trigger your intuition with one play. But there are many others who do the same. Photo by xoque.
Predictably, Peterson was the type of player that could trigger your intuition with one play. But there are many others who do the same. Photo by xoque.

Futures: FSU RB Karlos Williams

by Matt Waldman

People love the idea of being one step ahead of everyone else. It’s why the question, “Who is a player you like in next year’s draft?” is one of the most common I receive.

I spend so much time studying the prospects most likely to declare for this year’s draft that I’m not devoting in-depth analysis to next year’s guys. I get why people want to know and I respect the curiosity, but I dislike this question.

My work is about intuition and process. The longer I do this work, the more I believe in striving for a balance between listening to that inner voice and still honoring the value of a process.

Sometimes you know the first time you lay eyes on a person that there’s something special there. I knew it the first time I saw Alicia Johnson. After our first conversation, I had this feeling of absolute certainty that I just met my future wife.

It was a beautiful moment that was equally terrifying. And why wouldn’t it be? If you have any shred of logic in your being, the idea of knowing something as a fact without having conscious knowledge of the facts is unsettling no matter how many times it occurs during your life.

But there’s a difference between crazy and stupid, so I dated Alicia 13 months before proposing marriage. I needed to know that this “certainty” I was experiencing wouldn’t reveal itself as temporary infatuation. I wanted to make sure that flash of knowledge was illuminating the true dynamics of our relationship and not blinding it.

I may be crazy, but I try to avoid stupidity when at all possible. While I fail often in this regard, marrying Alicia was one of the smartest decisions I’ve made in my life. We have been married four years and the love and underlying certainty that I felt on that first day I met her has never wavered.

I share this Hallmark moment because there are occasions where I have felt that same jolt of certainty when watching football players. Although the implications of meeting the love of your life and identifying a talented college prospect are quite different, that feeling of certainty about a player despite limited exposure to his game is often unsettling. Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

LSU WR Jarvis Landry: The Gap Between Mundane and Extraordinary

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
Landry makes some awe-inspiring plays, but it's the mundane that he must execute to become a consistent NFL player.
Landry makes some awe-inspiring plays, but it’s the mundane that he must execute to become a consistent NFL player.

Tall, fast, and skilled with the ball in his hands, Jarvis Landry has the physical skills that excites fans and college beat writers about his NFL potential. The LSU receiver is capable of breaking a big play at any moment. Add a quarterback with Zach Mettenberger’s NFL arm strength and the needle on the hype meter kicks into the red.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/-AFSlju1-PQ]

There’s talk that Landry may leave LSU a year early for the NFL draft. It’s a smart, short-term business decision if LSU lacks passing talent behind Mettenberger to showcase Landry’s talent as a senior. However, Landry might do his NFL career a greater service if LSU has the quarterback talent for him to wait a year and refine his skills in Cam Cameron’s offensive system. Quarterback Anthony Jennings might qualify as that type of talent, but Landry might be thinking that a change of quarterbacks as a senior is a risk to his draft status that he doesn’t want to consider if he already earns a strong enough grade from the NFL Draft Advisory Board as a junior.

Landry has a number of fine plays that illustrate his positives. Today’s post is a more critical statement about details and effort. Based on what I’ve seen thus far, Landry doesn’t have any greater issue with these attributes than the average NFL prospect. However, I found two plays against Alabama that could have changed the complexion of this pivotal SEC match-up if Landry showed a different mindset. 

Make Every Play Count Because You Don’t Know What Will Happen Next

The cliché “Live every day like it’s your last” could easily be “Make every play like it’s your last” because in this game it could be. I’m not just talking about injury. Whether you throw, catch, carry, snap, kick, or tip it, the shape of the football bedevils everyone.

Here’s a 1st-and-goal run with 9:02 in the first quarter where Landry slants inside to block the Alabama safety. It looks like a decent effort from Landry, but upon further review Landry’s block is the difference between average and good. It’s a play that also has a consequence that might have been avoided.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/sTQ2boEg0LA]

Watch the play on first blush and Landry could earn the characterization as “physical” for throwing his shoulder at the safety. However, it’s not a smart decision. Instead of using his hands to deliver a punch, Landry aims his shoulder into the defender. Although the receiver succeeds with landing the hit on the defender it lacks control, leverage, and technique to sustain contact.

When Landry meets the defender with his shoulder, he’s hitting a defender with equally low pad level and a downhill angle towards the ball carrier. Landry’s hit from an indirect angle bounces off the defender, who isn’t moved off his spot. The defender then makes the tackle on the backing passing through the crease.

If Landry delivers a punch and locks on his hands, he had a better chance to drive the defender away from the crease and the runner has more unimpeded room to run. There’s room for the runner to dip inside his guard’s second level block at the three to earn the score. If not inside the guard, a better block of the safety gives the runner room to make No.13 miss or run through the defender’s hit inside the five.

Landry’s choice of play is the difference between a five-yard gain and a potential touchdown.

Big deal, right? He’s just a receiver. The best teams emphasize these details and expect the highest levels of execution. Mediocre and bad teams often have personnel with the same eye-popping level of talent and skill, but the team is filled with players who don’t perform with consistency of detail and preparation.

This play and these thoughts about execution underscore the belief that we often create our own luck. Landry’s block helps his runner gain five yards, but prevented his runner a chance at reaching the end zone. On the next play, Alabama strips the runner inside the three and recovers the fumble.

Landry doesn’t deserve blame for the runner’s fumble, but his lack of detail – in this case using the optimal technique on the play before – contributes to the next play even happening.  It’s why coaches and players often respond to questions about a pivotal play that dashes any final hopes for a victory that it wasn’t one play that lost the game.

Sell the Mundane to Create the Extraordinary – A Lesson For Route Runners

Speaking of pivotal plays at the end of the game, Landry is the target of one on 4th and 13 with 9:17 in the fourth quarter from a 1×3 10 personnel shotgun set. The middle receiver on the trips side of this play, Landry runs a wheel route, which is essentially and out-and-up to the sideline, tricking the defender into taking a hard angle downhill towards the flat and then turning the play up the boundary on a vertical break.

Once again, on first blush it appears quarterback Zach Mettenberger overthrew Landry in the end zone. At the same time, the CB does a great job of edging Landry towards the sideline and making it difficult for the WR to earn separation down field on the break down hill. However, watch the replay that follows this real-time action below. 

[youtube=http://youtu.be/o0mSDMrrBSA]

Upon review, Landry creates many of his own problems. In fact, the throw is much more accurate than it appears. The issue is Landry’s initial move.  Landry’s first break to the flat is so unconvincing that the defender is anticipating the wheel route from start to finish.

If Landry snapped his turn to the flat after his initial release from the line of scrimmage, turned his head and pads towards the quarterback, dipped his route towards the line of scrimmage to sell the flat route, the Alabama defensive back has no choice but to break towards the receiver.

Landry does none of these things and it allows the corner to maintain good depth while working towards the boundary. When Landry breaks to the sideline, the defender squeezes the receiver tight to the boundary and gives the wide receiver no wiggle room to adjust unless he gives up outside position, dips inside the corner back, and loses pace on a timing throw heading towards the end zone. 

Landry is a good prospect, but these two plays – one in the first half and one in the fourth quarter – embody what happens when you don’t execute at the highest level of detail possible.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Boiler Room: Michigan WR Jeremy Gallon

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Wide Receiver
Can Jeremy Gallon follow in the footsteps of Steve Smith? Similar dimensions, but big shoes . . . Photo by PDA Photo
Can Jeremy Gallon follow in the footsteps of Steve Smith? Similar dimensions, but big shoes . . . Photo by PDA Photo

Footballguys.com Bob Henry is one of the best fantasy writers I know and someone I’m thankful to have as a friend of mine. We became fast friends after sharing our love for the old AFC Central; Funk, Soul, and R&B music; and all the varieties of Asian cuisine.

Bob – a huge Michigan fan – is my unofficial area scout for the Big Ten. At points throughout the season, he sends me word of players he likes and we compare notes in January. One of his mentions this year is Wolverine receiver Jeremy Gallon – a player whose style he likened to Carolina Panthers  leader Steve Smith.

Listed at 5’8″, 183 lbs., Gallon matches Smith’s physical dimensions, but he has a stretch of road ahead of him as difficult as Russia’s Trans-Siberian Highway if he hopes to be mentioned in the same breath as the 13-year NFL veteran. Still, I think Gallon plays bigger than his size and has a flair for the dramatic on the field.

A series that I started last spring at the RSP blog is The Boiler Room. One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play. Yet, if I need a play to add to the highlight reel that will help a team make a decision where to slot Jeremy Gallon on its board, this 62-yard touchdown is my nomination. This is a 1st-and-10 with 6:00 in the first quarter from a 12 personnel weak side twin receiver set. Gallon is at the right hash stacked behind his teammate. Notre Dame has one safety deep on this play.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/deiN203Dx1s]

Gallon runs up the right hash on a seam route and then sits in the middle of a wide open zone 15 yards past the line of scrimmage. He catches the ball close to his body and turns inside the hash with the nearest defender five yards behind him. The next closest defender to Gallon is 10 yards over top and outside the right hash.

Gallon gains 10 yards up the middle through a huge hole, jukes outside the defender at the left hash and then stumbles towards the safety over top just as the defender he juked outside wraps the receiver at the waist. Here’s where Gallon displays the kind of balance that hints at Steve Smith’s game. He spins inside the safety, shakes the defender wrapping him, and then makes the safety miss all at the same time. The Wolverines receiver then dips inside a second safety.

Within a snap of the fingers, Gallon has beaten three defenders and regains his balance as he runs towards the right hash. By the time he accelerates past a fourth defender, Gallon is in the clear for the final 20 yards to the end zone.

Gallon runs like a kick return specialist and this is a job he can compete for immediately in the NFL. The receiver displays a strong downhill mentality in the open field and doesn’t waste motion or slow his pace trying to make defenders miss like so many quick-twitch, agile receivers. His move to avoid three defenders was not a display of power; it was excellent balance to maintain his footing,  spin through contact to limit the impact, and terrific protection of the football under his left arm.

We know he has the athleticism to get deep in single coverage, but I like that Gallon is so quick to find the open zone in the middle of the field. He may never become Steve Smith, but if he can demonstrate the smarts to match his toughness and athleticism, he might become a dynamite NFL slot receiver in a league. At worst, I think he’s a more explosive player in the mold of Harry Douglas or Doug Baldwin.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

A Prayer for Sammy Watkins

0 Comments read Players, Wide Receiver
Watkins has the upside to lap the field of some fine receiver prospects when it comes to NFL potential. Photo by PDA.Photo.
Watkins has the upside to lap the field of some fine receiver prospects when it comes to NFL potential. Photo by PDA.Photo.

When I watch the Clemson receiver, I find myself in a mode of prayerful thought. I know it’s probably wrong to ask for something this selfish, but I want a player like Watkins on my team and if I have to resort to the good entity upstairs, well . . . that’s what crazy fans do, right?

Dear Lord,

Thank you for my health, my family, my job, and the strength and whatever wisdom I’ve gleaned to live each day. I don’t like to bother you with trivial things because I imagine you have far weightier concerns about what’s going on down here like all the wars we’re fighting, child slavery, famine, and corruption. Of course, this could all be some sort of divine machination like some philosophers believe and it’s all part of a grand plan.

If that’s the case I might just be wasting my time fretting to you about it. If they’re wrong, however, I’d like to make a miniscule request that, if it fits within the rhythm of the universe and doesn’t cause harm to anyone – perhaps with the exception of emotional damage to 49ers fans – I’m hoping you’ll make so:

Would you please have the Seattle Seahawks draft Sammy Watkins?

How tempting it is for me to make this a legitimate prayer. I find myself thinking it the more I watch Watkins – especially last night when I took in the Clemson-Florida State debacle. Devonta Freeman was impressive, Rashad Greene was scintillating, and Jameis Winston has been spectacular, but hands-down Watkins is the best wide receiver prospect in this draft class if he comes out.

I know some of you Pac-10 wonks will shout the refrain of Marqise Lee. You already have several times and I know there’s no medicine for your SoCal Tourette Syndrome. I agree that Lee is a good one But if Watkins is alongside Lee, I’m taking the Clemson Tiger in every scenario.

Catch Radius-Hands

[youtube=http://youtu.be/LvzmKM7cdeI]

This is a simple concept – a short cross – but the execution is far more demanding thanks to Tajh Boyd’s errant throw and Watkins’ underrated catch. A throw that’s low and away while on the run is one of the more difficult adjustments to make on a target. Watkins makes it look routine. Watch enough NFL games and this is the type of play that the average veteran in a starting lineup makes.

Then look at the presence of mind to get the pads downhill and make a beeline for the first down marker. Although we’ve seen Watkins make his share of defenders miss, he’s far more consistent at knowing when to dispense with the bells and whistles of agility and handle the primary job of earning the first down.

Here’s another underrated demonstration of catch radius on a slant for a touchdown – a play where a majority of NFL players in this situation drop the ball. Even top prospects entering the league drop this pass and get fans questioning whether the player really is all that good. Then, when they make the play the next week-month-year fans promptly forget that the capability was there all long. Watkins will likely be one of those players.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/iIEGWBcvHbQ]

Once again, an errant throw from Boyd (see a pattern) and Watkins has to lean the opposite direction of his break to extend his arms for the ball, make the catch, and hit the ground after contact. The consistent technique to extend his arms and catch the ball with his hands earns Watkins second chances in situations like the one above.

Route Depth and Boundary Awareness

These are two things that Watkins – once he gets acclimated to the advanced level of the NFL game – will make him a primary receiver for an offense. Watch this third-down play and note how he breaks to the quarterback, maintains good route depth, and makes the catch with great technique despite a defender draped on his back.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/YtivJhrJARM]

Moreover, look at Watkins drag his feet. The receiver’s ability to integrate all of these skills into one play is an indication that Watkins has ingrained many of these techniques into his game with hard work. This is advanced receiving. Watkins is a receiver I expect to have a productive rookie year.

Physicality

This block is hard to see and it’s a play that catches the cornerback by surprise. Still, I love Watkins’ hustle.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/xIGgl-8IJN4]

It’s a great punch with good location and away from the flow of the play. It’s one of several small indications that I’ve shown that Watkins not only likes to play the game he likes to work at it. Combine that with great athleticism and natural gifts and just imagine the versatility the Seahawks would have with Percy Harvin, Golden Tate, and Sammy Watkins.

It probably won’t happen, but a man can hope, right? What I do know is that the team that gets Watkins will have some major prayers answered.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures at Football Outsiders: Baylor RB Lache Seastrunk

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back
This shot begins one of my favorite runs of the year, painted courtesy of Baylor's Lache Seastrunk.
This shot begins one of my favorite runs of the year, painted courtesy of Baylor’s Lache Seastrunk.

Futures: Baylor RB Lache Seastrunk

by Matt Waldman

There’s no position I enjoy watching more than running back. One of the reasons I love studying the position is that relative to other roles on the field, there’s a tremendous amount of diversity among players that can excel at the job.

No other position in football has such a wide range of acceptable physical dimensions. There was a time when Brandon Jacobs weighed 87 pounds more than Warrick Dunn. Both players sport multiple 1000-yard seasons. Adrian Peterson is almost a half-foot taller than Frank Gore, but they are about same weight and inspire similar frustration among opposing defenders.

Watch Peterson, Herschel Walker, and Bo Jackson and they seem chiseled from ebony. By comparison, Jerome Bettis and Craig “Ironhead: Heyward were amorphous lumps of clay. None were a joy to tackle.

Cleveland’s 6-foot-2, 232-pound fullback Jim Brown and Chicago’s 5-foot-10, 200-pound Walter Payton are far apart on the dimension spectrum of running backs, but is there any separation between them when it came to dying hard on every play? For that matter, is there anyone else even close?

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Futures: UNC TE Eric Ebron

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Tight End
UNC TE Eric Ebron fits in a comparison spectrum with Vernon Davis as the pinnacle. Photo by The Bay Area Bias.
UNC TE Eric Ebron fits in a comparison spectrum with Vernon Davis as the pinnacle. Photo by The Bay Area Bias.

Futures: UNC TE Eric Ebron

by Matt Waldman

Eric Ebron is the hot name among the NFL Draft media, but the University of North Carolina tight end isn’t some flash fire that ignited at Chapel Hill in mid-October. The Tar Heel has been ablaze for two seasons –- make it three if you count a searing 20.7 yards per catch average on 10 receptions as a freshman. Tyler Eifert, many a draftnik’s top tight end prospect in 2013’s class, is a moderate bush fire by comparison.

NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks wrote about Ebron this week. He invokedJimmy Graham and Antonio Gates as impact players who Ebron could rival one day if the junior declares for the 2014 NFL Draft. There’s a lot of heft to that statement.

Brooks displayed the restraint not to compare Ebron’s skills directly to Graham and Gates. Such a comparison would be like linking Steve Wonder to Neil Young — both are fine singer-songwriters with instrumental talents, but their styles are too disparate for a fine comparison.

Player comparisons are a problematic exercise. The intent is to provide a functional short hand. Do it well and the comparison can evoke layers of nuanced analysis of physical build, strengths, weaknesses, playing style, and schematic fit. Do it poorly and the end result can be one-dimensional. Worse, display a lack of sophisticated study and you can even have unintentional racial overtones.

I believe a better way to create player comparisons is to add more dimensions to the exercise. It’s far from a perfect method, but it does help me evoke multiple images of players that illustrate layers of analysis you don’t get with just one player.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Futures: Arizona State DT Will Sutton

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players
Will Sutton may not be the next Geno Atkins, but his "senior year slump" is a gross mischaracterization. Photo by Ashley and Matthew Hemingway.
Will Sutton may not be the next Geno Atkins, but his “senior year slump” is a gross mischaracterization. Photo by Ashley and Matthew Hemingway.

The Arizona State defensive tackle’s story is turning into another example of where the system is focused on spotting flaws more than serious consideration of how to maximize available talent.

Futures: Arizona State DT Will Sutton

By Matt Waldman

Unusual. Not typical. Uncommon. Extraordinary.

These are all meanings of “exceptional”.

The best talent evaluators create opportunities within their process to find the exceptional. They understand what business writer George Anders means when he says that it’s important to keep channels openbecause talent does not always fit the typical requirements:

When hiring talent, many companies generally search for candidates with narrow, time-tested backgrounds. Hunting strictly in those familiar zones doesn’t find everybody, however. When selectors apply such rules too tightly, lots of fascinating candidates on the fringe get overlooked. There’s no mechanism for considering the 100-to-1 long shot, let alone the 1,000-to-1 candidate. On a one at-a-time basis, it’s easy to say that such candidates aren’t worth the time it would take to assess them. Yet ignoring all of these outsiders can mean squandering access to a vast amount of talent.

Good organizations, according to Anders, know how to balance a conventional process for hiring talent while taking more progressive attitudes about the initial search:

  • Not restricting where they seek talent. Being open to alternate sources limits how often they have to pay a “conformity tax” by doing what everyone else does. Think Victor Cruz at UMass. The fact the Giants were willing to give Cruz a tryout was more than one could say about many teams.
  • Suspending disbelief about a candidate in the early stages of evaluation. Seeing potential value instead of writing off a candidate before evaluating him. Think of the several NFL teams, scouts, and media-hired evaluators whose grades of Russell Wilson were low because they’re processes are about spotting flaws more than spotting skill or opportunities for skills to thrive. Of the many scouts who did see Wilson’s talent, a majority were driven by the preconceived expectation that their bosses would punish them for championing a player they knew their superiors would dismiss without an open evaluation of the quarterback’s ability.
  • Realizing that other industries cultivate desirable skills that can create a viable pool of talent. Think Antonio Gates, Jimmy Graham, and Tony Gonzalez – three basketball players in college and were encouraged to makefootball their professional goal.

Gates, Graham, and Gonzalez aren’t just examples of progressive scouts and front office types. They each heeded an inner belief that they could play at the highest level. This is a part of being an exceptional talent.

LaRoi Glover was an exceptional talent. The former Saint’s resume is that of a future Hall of Famer: Six consecutive trips to the Pro Bowl (2000-2005), a four-time All-Pro, and a member of the NFL’s 2000s All-Decade Team. Headlining those accomplishments was a 2000 season where Glover led the NFL in sacks and earned NFC Defensive Player of the Year –as a defensive tackle.

Few NFL teams had anywhere close to this level of regard for Glover’s potential. A two-time All-WAC defender from San Diego State, Glover entered the league as a 6’2”, 290-pound rookie – a generous listing of his physical dimensions. A baseline weight for NFL defensive tackles – even the speedier, agile three-techniques in a 4-3 defense like Warren Sapp – is 300 pounds.

The Oakland Raiders selected Glover in the fifth round of the 1996 NFL Draft. The team used the rookie in two games during the month of November and at season’s end, allocated Glover to the Barcelona Dragons of the World League. Glover earned all-league honors, but it wasn’t enough for the Raiders to give him a second look. Oakland cut Glover on August 24 of the 1997 preseason.

The Saints signed the defensive tackle the following day and they weren’t as dismissive with Glover’s potential. They gave Glover a chance to play based on what they saw and not what their coaches were guessing. The next three seasons, the young defender demonstrated great promise – earning a total of 23 sacks.

In 2000, new head coach Jim Haslett moved Glover to the three-technique, paired the explosive tackle with space eater Norman Hand, and the rest is history.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders.