Posts tagged 2014 NFL Draft

Futures: Florida State WR Rashad Greene

October 12, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Matt Waldman

When I watch FSU WR Rashad Greene, I see shades of Desean Jackson's game. Photo by Avinashkunnath. — When I watch FSU WR Rashad Greene, I see shades of Desean Jackson’s game. Photo by Avinashkunnath.

Futures: Florida State WR Rashad Greene

By Matt Waldman

When it comes to workouts, interviews, and background investigations, I have nothing on the NFL. I’m just like everyone else; I’m waiting to hear the outcomes of whatever the league shares with the public. But after speaking with former and current scouts, I can say with confidence that the NFL has nothing on me when it comes to my process for evaluating on-field performance.

It sounds a lot like I’m saying that I know more about football than NFL scouts and front offices, but what I mean is that I believe I have a process that does a better job of helping an evaluator structure his thinking and get out of his own way. I’ve seen scouting reports from the National Scouting Service as well as reports form NFL teams. Based on the structure of their reporting, many teams don’t realize that their methodology often gets in the way of their collective knowledge.

They don’t have a written working definition for every positional technique they observe. They don’t possess a weighted score assigned to each. And they don’t categorize and define the level of difficulty to improve skills as a player transitions to the NFL.

I know of an NFL player-personnel man borrowing some of my ideas to incorporate into his team’s scouting processes. This is because the things I described eliminate some of the inherent variation that exists among scouts and management. But this type of change in thinking is a slow sell compared to upgrading technology that allows them to do the same things they’ve been doing for 50 years – only with greater speed and convenience.

While I believe my process is a good start towards a consistent approach when evaluating players, at the end of the day there’s no denying that scouting talent is a subjective process. Subjectivity can be a bad word – especially for a site like Football Outsiders, which strives to use data to arrive at insights that provide a counterpoint to fallacies stemming from what we observe on a qualitative level. However, I doubt anyone writing for this site would say all subjective analysis is bad.

I believe in the power of intuition. Some of you who lean hard on black and white thinking may be turned off to that idea. The idea that intuition is a bodily indicator based on factors we cannot fully explain (yet) is hogwash. I can’t help you there – you feel similar about it or you don’t.

When I evaluate a player and his performance evokes a feeling that I attribute to intuition, I accept that feeling. It doesn’t mean that I ignore my scouting process or change my outcomes, but I have learned to pay attention to those emotions.

Sometimes what resonates when I watch a player is something that is a part of my everyday life: I’m a magnet for the troubled. I’ve learned how to see it coming in life, but in football, I am still learning that many players I have a strong feeling about are prospects carrying a lot of off-field baggage that bleeds into their professional lives.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

Futures at Football Outsiders: Texas A&M OT Jake Matthews

October 5, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft

What does the Matthews family have in common with the Marsalis family? Generational excellence at a craft. Photo by mll.

Futures: Texas A&M OT Jake Matthews

By Matt Waldman

I heard a great story about Lawrence Taylor this week from my friend Sigmund Bloom. Thanks to NFL Films, the Hall of Fame linebacker and “trash talk” go together like K-Tel and “greatest hits” – complete with a low-budget, late-night commercial featuring a scrolling list of titles for your listening pleasure:

“Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, stick – you mine. You mine, baby!”

“C’mon baby, you can’t pussy-foot it up in there, you gotta run it.”

“Homeboy, you can’t play that stuff in here; you’re gonna have to go outside.”

“Let’s go out there like a bunch of crazed dogs and have some fun!”

“Son, you gotta do better than this…”

Remember, this is Lawrence Taylor/K-Tel. If you want to pay good money for trash talk, order from the Shannon Sharpe Smack Soundtrack. At the end of the day, the talk means little if a player can’t walk it, and Taylor could walk it in his sleep. Well, with the exception of the week a rookie tackle let Taylor tie himself into a mental knot.

It was early in the game. Taylor stood opposite the rookie tackle, wasting no time dishing it to the offensive lineman.

“Rookie, I’m going to beat you to the left,” drawls Taylor, standing over what he had to think was fresh fish. Without missing a beat, the tackle shot back with a question.

“Which left? Your left or my left?”

Taylor, caught off-guard by the serious tone and the nature of the question, paused for a split-second –- just long enough to think about it -– as the center snapped the ball. That hesitation was all it took for the first-year tackle to dispatch of Taylor on the play. Sure, Taylor probably got the best of this rookie several times in that game, but the interaction underscores the point that offensive linemen are often some of the most intelligent players on the field.

One of the best of these quick-thinking, quick-footed behemoths in college football today is Texas A&M tackle Jake Matthews. Yes, he’s from the Matthews family that includes Grandpa Clay Sr., Uncle Clay Jr., Father Bruce, and Cousin Clay III. We’re talking over 50 years of NFL experience -– 18 of them Pro Bowl seasons. It’s like a functional, football version of the Jacksons –- down to Casey Matthews as its LaToya.

Jokes aside, the fact that Casey even earned an NFL opportunity speaks to the talent of a football family whose best musical parallel is the Marsalis clan. If there’s a compelling argument for teams to mention “bloodlines” when filing a scouting report, the Matthews and Long families would be Exhibits A and B of a lengthier list of NFL bloodlines than you may imagine.

It may seem like an imposing standard for Jake Matthews to follow his father Bruce in to the NFL –- and it’s probably something we’ll never learn until his career is over –- but examining the Aggie lineman’s potential solely on the basis of physical talent, technical skill, and conceptual acumen for the game, the younger

Matthews has a strong shot of doing something his dad did 30 years ago: earning a top-10 selection in the NFL Draft.

Although Matthews hasn’t done enough as a left tackle to provide quality footage at this spot, there is one particular opponent he faced last year as a right tackle who is a good test for anyone on the left side, college or NFL. That would be Barkevious Mingo, who, like Lawrence Taylor, displays rare athleticism and relentlessness off the edge as an outside linebacker. Even as a right tackle last year, Matthews’ matchup with Mingo at LSU and the athletes at Alabama are performances that any NFL prospect at left tackle would be proud to have in his portfolio.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Blocking: Alabama WR Kevin Norwood

October 1, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

Orange with pepper? Might as well watch a wide receiver in college football block. Right? Photo by Robert Tewart.

To the casual college football viewer, wide receivers and blocking go together like orange slices with pepper or french fries dipped in a Frosty. Both seem odd, but they work. A receiver who does his best to make the position and the task fit together Alabama’s Kevin Norwood.

I can think of dozens of receivers at the college level that I’ve seen who are better blockers. However, sometimes there’s a play worth showing because it’s instructive. This run block in the Texas A&M game is a good example of gauging the correct angle. And football at its best is the ability to anticipate and address the angles of the opposition.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/38aI1BhEztU]

This is a great angle by Norwood. Watching the play at full speed you might think he overran his target. But if Norwood overran the safety, how could he make the correct decision to turn the defender to the sideline without seeing the hole that his running back chose?

As with any play call, Norwood knows the general direction of this run and understands that his job is to seal the defender to the outside. The Crimson Tide receiver takes an angle to the safety’s inside shoulder to force the defender on an outside path. If the defender beats Norwood’s block to the outside, there’s a greater chance he’ll overrun the path to the ball carrier.

If the defender doesn’t get outside, Norwood has an easier task of turning the safety to the sideline and driving the defender backwards. This is a good example of leverage by body position in the run game.

By no means is this a perfect block. Norwood is overextended as he makes the turn. His pads and head are down and too far ahead of his hips. At this point, he has lost control of his form and his body. The safety should have been able to grab Norwood by the pads and rip the receiver outside and then take an inside path to the ball carrier. Instead, the safety tries to throw Norwood inside towards the ball carrier.

While inventive, the safety also has to improve his skills at shedding blocks because this decision is the difference between a third and short and a first down.

As for those of you wondering about Norwood as an NFL prospect, I’ll have more about him in the coming months. I will tell you that he has the athleticism and baseline skills against tight coverage to compete for a roster spot. The key for Norwood will be consistency in the passing game and effort like this in the run game. Compared to the pack of receivers draft analysts will lump Norwood, the Alabama senior is ahead of the game in this respect.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures at Football Outsiders: Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel

September 28, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback

Manziel epitomizes the strengths and weaknesses of a creative manager. See below. Photo by Matt Velazquez.

Futures: Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel

by Matt Waldman

Management Style and Quarterbacking

In last week’s Futures on Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray, I described quarterbacking styles within the context of task-oriented management and creative management. Be it a white-collar, blue-collar, or athletic career, these are two basic ends of the spectrum when talking about management styles.

Task-oriented managers love the routine and rhythm of a predictable, reliable process. As they acquire more experience, a high-functioning, task-oriented manager knows the boundaries of his processes so well that he’ll often appear far more spontaneous to a wide range of problems than he is.

Matt Ryan and Tom Brady are perfect examples of high-functioning, task-oriented quarterbacks. They know every detail of what’s supposed to be happening in their environment and control it so well that they can anticipate most things that defenses will attempt to wreck an offense’s performance. When their teammates are playing efficiently, they appear far more creative than they are because their level of preparation helps them develop processes to avoid the same major issues that confound less experienced passers.

I mentioned Peyton Manning and Drew Brees as task-oriented quarterbacks last week, but I’m having second thoughts. It’s not an exaggeration that Manning is a coach on the field. I’ve talked to a former Colts player who has played with three other teams and he affirms that Manning is unique in this regard. His intelligence and preparation might exceed every other quarterback who has ever played the game.

This gives Manning a much wider box of operation than any quarterback in the game, regardless of style. His creativity comes in the strategic aspects of the game, but it’s rooted in having a fantastic memory and method of preparation. Last year ESPN ran a story about Manning contacting a former staffer with Tennessee to help him find tape of a play that he remembered was successful. Manning implemented it successfully as a red-zone call during the season.

If I had to make a final call, I’d stick with the task-oriented label for Manning. I’m not as certain about Brees.

I wonder if Brees is that rare individual who balances both worlds of task-oriented preparation and creative and intuitive problem solving when it’s time to perform. While the Saints quarterback is obsessive to the point that the smallest details of his workout routines don’t change –- to the point that teammates have to cut short what they’re doing to accommodate their quarterback — I’ve also seen Brees create when form and function go out the window and he does it as well as many of the quarterbacks on the far end of the creative spectrum.

I believe Russell Wilson is also one of those players. His task-oriented skills are strong. When he arrived in Madison, Wisconsin he learned the Badgers system -– a more task-oriented, rhythm based, West Coast offense –- in record time. His preparation was so strong that he not only earned the starting job without contest, he was also voted team captain.

But it was his play in North Carolina State’s offense for three years that impressed me the more than he did at Wisconsin. Wilson had to merge his understanding and execution of the offensive system’s process with his athleticism and creativity. He made off-balanced throws with anticipation and accuracy against blitzes that generally fluster most task-oriented passers. He could buy time, keep his head about him, and create productive results when the plays broke down beyond all sense of recognition.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Flashes: QB Chase Rettig, Boston College

September 1, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback

Chase Rettig isn't Kurt Warner, but was Kurt Warner, "Kurt Warner" as a first-year starter as a senior at Northern Iowa. Photo by Photogeek21 — Chase Rettig isn’t Kurt Warner, but was Kurt Warner, “Kurt Warner” as a first-year starter as a senior at Northern Iowa? Photo by Photogeek21

Playing quarterback at a high level requires a pairing of skill sets that at times seem paradoxical. Intense preparation and freewheeling improvisational skill. Finesse and grit. Control and abandon. An elephantine memory and selective amnesia.

It’s why it’s the toughest position to evaluate. Kurt Warner sat on the bench at Northern Iowa for three years. The fourth year, he was the Gateway Conference’s Offensive Player of the Year. We know the rest of the story. Johnny Unitas was cut by the Pittsburgh Steelers. Brett Favre might have drunk himself into a stupor if he stayed in Atlanta where then-Falcons’ head coach Jerry Glanville promised the only way Favre would get onto the field was a “plane crash“.

I wouldn’t bet my pocket change that Boston College senior Chase Rettig becomes a quality starter in the NFL. There are way too many factors to consider to draw a conclusion at this point. Yet there are qualities to his game that I like a lot that give him potential as a pocket passer. And yes, there are still pocket passers thriving in the NFL.

Rettig has played since his freshman year at Boston College and has the dubious distinction of working with five offensive coordinators in three years. Browns journeyman backup Jason Campbell can relate – and not just from his days with the Redskins. He had multiple offensive systems during his Auburn career.

Most don’t project Chase Rettig as a draft-worthy quarterback heading into the 2013 college season. However, Rettig plays well enough to earn consideration in early May even if his team continues its underwhelming play.

Arm Strength

[youtube=http://youtu.be/iPECd046PSU]

This is a 3rd-and-10 pass to his receiver, Alex Amidon on a deep out. Rettig faces Miami’s defense of freshmen and sophomores at the BC 32 versus a defense with two safeties high. This appears to be a Cover 2 look, especially as we see the pass arrive between two defenders. Rettig begins the play with a three-step drop, takes a hitch step to buy time, and then climbs the pocket away from the pressure coming from the edges.

The movement has precision and Rettig maintains enough balance and position to deliver this deep out from the BC 25 to Amidon at the UM 47 just outside the numbers of the right flat and between the safety and linebacker. The fact he has to climb the pocket and still hits the receiver on time with good placement at helmet level is another indication that Rettig has fundamentally sound technique and a strong enough arm for NFL teams to work with.

Precision and Finesse

[youtube=http://youtu.be/jdbobFeTsNs]

Rettig’s execution on this 1st-and-10 pass with 4:30 in the half at the UM 23 from a 1×2 receiver, 11 personnel set is a fine demonstration of precision on a few levels. He faces two safeties deep and a 4-3 front with man coverage on the outside. Rettig extends his arm on the play fake to the RB before finishing a five step drop and this forces the Miami linebackers to attend to the prospect of the run. Rettig finishes his drop and delivers a nice seam route behind the linebacker and safety after his back foot hits the ground.

Although the ball goes through the tight end’s arms, I thought it was a good display of touch and placement. The tight end was late to get his hands up and the receiver wasn’t precise with his hand placement. Target a starting tight end – or several backups – in the NFL and this is a touchdown.

Eye Discipline and Footwork

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Ou2u_5JIomw]

This six-yard completion with 12:42 in the third quarter doesn’t seem like much of a play, but there are some nice things happening here. Rettig’s receiver Amidon is the outside twin receiver outside the numbers. Rettig executes a play-action fake to the running back, hitches twice, and finds his receiver breaking back to the passer on the hook.

Going a little deeper, this throw is placed in a tight zone in a window optimal for the receiver. Rettig once again displays nice footwork to climb the pocket away from outside pressure and keep his eyes down field. Moreover, Rettig sets this up by beginning his drop with a long enough look to the middle of the field, which holds the linebackers in place and opens this zone for Amidon to work underneath.

Under Pressure

[youtube=http://youtu.be/5-uMbIslftA]

Here’s another small gain, but a nice play on a 3rd-and-four. Rettig’s target is Amidon, the receiver at the top of the screen. UM plays two safeties deep and rushes four. As you can see thus far, when Rettig has time to get that back foot into the ground he flashes arm strength and sometimes hyper-accuracy.

On this play, Rettig doesn’t get that time. Miami earns inside penetration off each tackle. Rettig looks to the middle, slides to the left, and makes a nice throw off his back foot with enough velocity to hit the receiver crossing from outside-inside into decent coverage. The receiver gets the first down and Rettig takes a hit after making the throw.

While the true test of a passer with physical gifts is to deliver a ball on-target and off-balance in the middle zone, this short-zone throw is still notable.

Awareness and Feel

[youtube=http://youtu.be/v8DXxz8q0nY]

Although this play doesn’t end well for the Eagles, Rettig placed the team in great position for a big-play on this 1st-and-10 with 12:32 in the game. Miami plays a single-high safety and decides to begin sending more than four men into the pocket. This is the first of several five-man pressure packages that come in the fourth quarter and they fail to sack Rettig once.

The play was designed for Rettig to find one of three receivers flooding the various zones on the left side of the field after a play-action boot in that direction. However, the safety forces the action early with his blitz. Rettig has a good feel for the location of his running back working the right flat on a bullet route as the backside receiver and is agile enough to pivot right and make an accurate throw with the defender in his face for a big gain that ends with a turnover.

While there’s nothing but good shown here, there are some things to note by nature of their absence. Rettig never threw the ball away in this game and considering he is known for holding onto the ball too long and taking sacks, there was nothing in this game to dispel this behavior. Rettig also has a high touchdown-to-interception total. The BC quarterback tossed an interception in this game where he didn’t read the underneath coverage on a slant and he attempted a number of tight-window throws.

I’m more concerned about the mix of aggression and discipline with interceptions than holding onto the ball too long. If Rettig can actually play in the same offensive system for a few years, this tendency could diminish over time. However, high interceptions rates also a result of a team playing from behind and forcing a quarterback to take risks. I saw several of these attempts at the end of this game where the quarterback might have had smarter choices, but not the time left in the contest to act with care.

Futures at Football Outsiders: Venric Mark, Offensive Weapon?

August 31, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back, Wide Receiver

Is this the year McCluster gets a shot to maximize his skill set? Photo by Tennessee Journalist Wade Rackley. — Is this the year McCluster gets a shot to maximize his skill set? If so, it might help Northwestern runner-receiver-return specialist Venric Mark’s draft stock . Photo by Tennessee Journalist Wade Rackley.

Venric Mark: Offensive Weapon?

by Matt Waldman

A couple of months ago, an employee from an NFL player-personnel department asked for preliminary input on a project he’s undertaking. He asked me to relay things I watch when I study offensive skill players that he could quantify. One of the things I shared pertains to running backs.

What many quality pros at the position have in common is how they handle backfield penetration. Every runner looks effective when he can generate momentum towards an open crease, however it requires a strong integration of multiple skill sets to foil early defensive penetration.

These skills include anticipating the penetration during the exchange with the quarterback, avoiding the defense after the exchange, and the runner redirecting his path to minimize a potential loss after the defense disrupts the intent of the offensive play. I see this happen most when a defense is dominating an offensive line and limiting the runner’s box score production.

Some the most memorable evaluations I have performed on prospects have been runners during games where their teams were overmatched:

Marshall’s Ahmad Bradshaw versus a Top-10 worthy Tennessee defense.
Tulane’s Matt Forte against LSU’s top-ranked defense.
LSU’s Joseph Addai facing a top-ranked Auburn defense.

All three players performed poorly according to the box score data in these games, but what I saw them do on the field was impressive. Season-long production may demonstrate that the player is contributing to the team, but it’s one of the most overrated aspects of evaluating a prospect.

I find it more important to examine player performance independent from the quality of his production. I prefer to judge his skill on a series of behaviors and processes within the physical and conceptual scope of his position and his role in the game. This is more illuminating of a player’s potential than a box score.

However, there is an added layer of complexity that comes into play when a prospect has the talent to produce in the NFL, but he plays a position in college football where his physical dimensions don’t match the NFL’s traditional prototype.

Underscoring this challenge is the NFL embracing the latest offensive concepts that are successful in the college game. The more a team spreads the field, opts for read-option plays, and uses a multiple scheme, the more likely the team will be scouting players who were successful in these schemes. The problem is that, by traditional NFL standards, those players aren’t big enough to ride the pro rollercoaster.

When this happens, we often see these players earn vague position titles from coaches like utility back or offensive weapon. There are exceptions, but the vaguer the position title, the less likely the player will have a defined role and impact in the offense. It’s why this integration of skills to anticipate-avoid-redirect may not be as enlightening to scouts when they watch a smaller runner back.

These players are also a test of an organization’s overall vision. A personnel department can scout a player and determine he’s a worthwhile prospect, but if the organization isn’t aligned in its thinking, the coaching staff can miscast its young talent into an offensive design that doesn’t suit his skills.

Nothing like shopping for groceries to provide the chef all the ingredients for a fantastic Italian meal only to see him use these goods for a Mexican dinner.

Darren Sproles, Dexter McCluster, and Tavon Austin all fit that player type. McCluster was more Sproles-like in style when he joined the Chiefs, but the team had its share of running back talent. They converted the Ole Miss star into a full-time wide receiver and he has yet to make a real impact. Place McCluster in a system similar to the Saints and I think he’d be a standout.

Even as new schemes create a need for players without a positional prototype, “offensive weapons” without a traditional position have been around for decades. Two players that come to mind –- and there are several before them -– are Warrick Dunn and Eric Metcalf.

Dunn’s physical dimensions are in the same range as the McCluster-Sproles-Austin trio, but he proved he could do the dirty work between the tackles as a true running back. In contrast, Metcalf was a bigger player than all four of these prospects, but Bill Belichick’s use of Metcalf at running back in Cleveland yielded mixed results. Some of this was due to an old-fashioned scheme; the rest was Metcalf’s style.

Metcalf’s production made him a mediocre running back in Cleveland, but he was a good receiver in the short zone of the field and a fine return specialist. When the Falcons acquired Metcalf, they converted him to a full-time receiver in a run-and-shoot offense. Metcalf had 104 catches, 1180 yards, and eight scores in his first season.

Scheme made all the difference. Pair Metcalf with Belichick in New England and I suspect the Patriots’ head coach would have used Metcalf more like Wes Welker or what I expect the team to do with a healthy Shane Vereen this year.

A college player who reminds me of Eric Metcalf is Venric Mark. The Northwestern running back has flashed a similar type of skill to anticipate-avoid-redirect when facing backfield penetration but at 5-foot-8 and somewhere between 175-185 pounds, scouts will wonder which positional template Mark fits into -– if he fits into one at all.

He’s a player whose draft stock will not just be determined by his skill and athleticism, but by the performance of players like McCluster and Austin. If both of these young NFL talents falter beyond their special teams prowess, Mark will have to demonstrate that he’s a Dunn-esque exception to the rule as a runner or display the receiving prowess in the intermediate zone to earn a definitive position title and role.

While Mark has a knack for minimizing losses, his display of this particular integrated skill set won’t likely hold the same value compared to the likes of Bradshaw, Forte, and Addai because of his current size. Depending on his physical growth, level of skill, and an NFL teams’ perception of his potential, Mark could either be viewed as a pure running back or labeled an “offensive weapon.”

Mark’s performance in last year’s opener at Syracuse provides a good showcase for his versatility, explosiveness, and vision — but it also raises more questions about his future than definitive answers.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Small Frame, Big Game: Kansas State RB John Hubert

July 4, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Running Back

Bill Snyder has earned the moniker "The White Wizard" of college football and RB John Hubert is another one of his small frame, big game minions. Photo by JMR_Photography. — Bill Snyder has earned the moniker “The White Wizard” of college football and RB John Hubert is another one of his small frame, big game minions. Photo by JMR_Photography.

What drives you crazy more: getting whooped or losing a close battle to someone who you think you should have dominated? For me it’s the latter choice because it’s one thing to believe you gave your all and weren’t ready to compete at the same level, but an entirely different story when you think you left your A-game at home to a B-game opponent.

But what if turns out that B-game opponent is a deceptive, A-game player whose skill is making you feel like a underachiever?

For me, the jury is still out when it comes to assessing whether Kansas State RB John Hubert has an A-game worthy of the NFL, but there’s no doubt that if I were a Big-12 defender who just spent an afternoon chasing him around a football field I’d probably need a half-hour date with a heavy bag after the game. Listed at 5’7″, 191 pounds, I’d probably bet someone lunch that he’s not a shade over 185 and I think I’m being generous.

The native of Waco, Texas broke LaDainian Tomlinson’s high school record, but hometown Baylor didn’t even sniff in his direction. Enter Kansas State coach Bill Snyder, a man who knows a thing or two about small backs who play big. As I mentioned the other night on Twitter, the more I watch Kansas State’s offense the greater the admiration I have for Snyder.

The K-State legend’s offense is one that coach Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops – a former Snyder assistant – says is like playing three different systems in the same game. What I especially like is the choice and timing of the constraint plays that K-State calls – often using the running game.

Back to Hubert. The diminutive runner got my attention for his 23-carry, 130-yard, 1-touchdown performance in a 24-19 upset of the Sooners in Oklahoma last years. Don’t tell me how bad the Sooners’ defense was; instead, pay attention to how good Hubert was at defeating angles and slipping tackles.

By my count, Hubert broke nine tackles and generated seven first downs on 24 touches. He got a lot of help from the play calls and execution of his teammates, but there are several attempts in this game where Hubert does something small that makes a big difference.

Whether or not this will translate to the NFL is a question I’m glad I have more time to answer. Still, it was too much fun to watch Hubert and not share what I saw. If you enjoy the nuance of play calling and admire a player who knows how to play to his assets, some of these highlights are worth examining.

Cut Block

One of K-State’s bread-and-butter plays is a power sweep from a spread formation. This is a staple of shotgun football, especially mobile quarterbacks in the college game. However, I like the approach the Wildcats take with a 3×1, 10 personnel set because it’s not formation one expects to see a power sweep.

The beginning of the play looks more like a zone read quarterback option. The left tackle slants inside and leaves the defensive end unblocked as the quarterback fakes the exchange with the running back. This draws the end to the middle of the field and puts him harm’s way with pulling right guard. Meanwhile the left tackle is working to the second level to take out the middle linebacker.

Hubert doesn’t get the ball on this play, but his contribution is to work down the line and help seal the edge by either blocking backside pursuit for the safety over the top. It is an illustration of the type of smart player that is comfortable with physical play that Synder seeks.

This alignment creates a 6-5 scenario in favor of the offense on the left side of the field against defensive personnel playing in a dime, which also lends an edge to the man-to-man match-ups between offense and defense. The next photo is a good illustration of this match-up advantage. of having the best athletes at the line of scrimmage making the key blocks to set up this run.

With a lot of runs, we’re watching wide receivers or tight ends taking on ends and linebackers. In this case, K-State has both tackles sealing the inside while the design of the alignment gives the single receiver a one-on-one with a cornerback split wide from the formation. This should provide a wide alley for the quarterback to run through with his running back serving as a lead, giving K-State a 2-1 match-up in open space.

Conceptually this is a winning play because it maximizes personnel strengths against a defensive alignment naturally weaker against the run and it’s set up with enough misdirection that even if the defensive end is thinking a step ahead (zone read to quarterback or running back) he’s being duped to get into position where the pulling tackle gets a clean shot. There are several plays like this ins K-State’s playbook that maximizes personnel numbers and match-ups, but with far different looks.

As Hubert leads quarterback Collin Klein around the corner, we see the right tackle (No.78) sealing the defensive end to the backside and the left tackle working the middle linebacker down field at the 35. Barring a slip, it’s next to impossible for Hubert to do anything wrong to prevent Klein from getting another five yards for a first down.

But Hubert does more than the minimum as he gauges the angle of the safety and executes a good cut block. His head is not up as he makes the play, but he does work across the body of the defender and aims above the knee. These two points make all the difference for Klein to get a clean dip inside the block and work behind the left tackle to earn another 12 yards on the play. Here’s the play from start to finish (starting at 0:09 if you have to click off the ad and replay it).

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwI48hn3JcE?start=09&w=560&h=315]

Hubert’s cut block achieves its purpose: crumple the opponent at the point of contact. If a cut block gives the opponent room to fall beyond the point of contact then the blocker’s effort was only partially effective, at best. This was Hubert’s first and best block of the night. He had eight attempts as a run or pass protector and was effective or partially effective five times. He’s good at diagnosing blitzes and green dog blitzes and decent at the cut block, but he’s reckless with his form as a stand-up blocker and tends to throw his body around rather than deliver a controlled punch. I think he’s trying to compensate for his size.

However, I also like that Hubert plays with smarts. He’s the lead blocker once again on a 2nd-and-eight sweep to left end from a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun set with 5:57 in the first quarter, but his left tackle is late getting to the edge. It allows the inside linebacker to get down hill with a strong angle to the quarterback.

Hubert is forced to chip the inside linebacker and it delays his angle to the free safety. This allows the free safety to come down hill, get outside Hubert and tackle the quarterback for a loss of a yard. But you can’t blame Hubert unless you preferred the runner to ignore the linebacker because the defender is not his assignment on paper. If that’s the case, the quarterback is probably dropped for a four-yard loss. At least Hubert’s adjustment gave his ball carrier another chance to succeed by making the safety miss.

Here’s a touchdown on a similar play in the second half where Hubert has to delay his angle to check the linebacker before taking out another defender to clear the edge for his quarterback.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwI48hn3JcE?start=241&w=560&h=315]

Once again, Hubert makes sure the first defender doesn’t get through before worrying about his own man and it’s this decision-making that leads to K-State earning the advantage.

It’s these types of small adjustments that Hubert makes as a blocker, receiver, and runner that defines his game.

Good Footwork, Strong Short-Area Quickness, But No Third Gear

One of the things that limits Hubert’s game is his lack of game-breaking speed. Here’s another terrific play that results in a 36-yard gain. However, I believe if a back with Bryce Brown’s top-end speed gets this carry, it’s a 79-yard touchdown. This time K-State uses the spread, but creates misdirection against a defense with run-stopping personnel to generate a mismatch on the perimeter.

This is a 1st-and-10 from the K-State 21 with 8:13 in the half from a 1×2 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun set. Hubert flanks the quarterback’s strong side versus a 43 defensive look with the strong side linebacker play between the tight end and the slot, which gives this two-deep safety look a nickel feel but with 43 personnel.

With 7-8 defenders stationed from the middle to right side of the field – the strong side of the formation – K-State baits the Oklahoma defense by making the play look like it’s going to the strong side when in fact it’s setting up a weak side run to left end where the defense still has the numbers advantage but they have to recover from heading the wrong direction (any player still inside or moving into the orange box) and have more ground to cover in order to make a play on the ball carrier.

If the play is executed as designed – and it is – Hubert earns a one-on-one in the open field with a cornerback. Advantage: Wildcats.

K-State pulls the guards to the strong side and the left tackle allows the defensive end to move past, hoping the defender will crash down the line as backside pursuit when he sees the guards pulling to the strong side. This opens left end and gives Hubert the choice of a one-on-one with the corner or an alley between the left tackle and the slot receiver. Where Hubert shines is that he takes neither options I presented with the arrows.

Instead, Hubert presses the alley inside the slot receiver by making a sharp cut around the defensive end at the edge and this forces the cornerback to bend his hips, stop his momentum, and work towards the wide receiver. Hubert wants both defensive backs to work inside so he can bounce it behind his wide receiver and this press and cut works to perfect.

He follows up with a stutter to get outside the wide receiver’s push of the safety inside and is still quick enough to squeeze under the flat-footed corner at the 26.

Hubert dips under the corner and hops away from the wrap to his ankles. His footwork to change direction in tight spots and avoid wraps to his lower legs is one of Hubert’s greatest strengths as a runner. Some backs have great speed, strength, and size, but wrap them at the angles or knees and they’re done. Hubert lacks all three of these characteristics but he’s tough for defenders to grasp.

Here’s the play from beginning to end.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwI48hn3JcE?start=91&w=560&h=315]

The one thing lacking that the NFL expects from smaller backs is game-breaking speed. Hubert fails to beat the backside safety coming across the field to make the play. There’s a lot of opportunity for him to outrun this angle, but despite the quicks to operate in tight spaces he lacks that final gear to blow by defenders when given the room to open his stride.

Still, the change of direction, the press and cut concepts that he also displays as an interior runner, and the footwork to turn good tackle angles into bad ones are all impressive.

Turning Good Defensive Angles Into Bad Ones: Why He Frustrates Opponents

This fourth-quarter play from a 2×2 receiver, 10 personnel set versus a dime look at the Oklahoma 19 is another good example the qualities I just described above. This play is a trap, but the crease behind the right guard is closed shut before Hubert approaches the line of scrimmage because of penetration from the defensive tackle over left guard who crosses the face of the center and blows up the design of the play.

Hubert takes it all in stride. He approaches the line, looks to where the defensive tackle was before the snap and find a wide gap between left tackle and left guard and bends the run away from right side of the line that has been blown up by the Oklahoma defensive line.

As he crosses the line of scrimmage the backside tackle gets a bead on Hubert, but is unable to wrap the runner thanks to a quick stiff arm and turn of Hubert’s pads away from the linemen.

Hubert runs through the early attempt at this wrap and continues down hill for another four yards where the safety wraps and drags the runner three yards later to the eight.

Watch the video to see it all put together. While the defensive tackle “should have” tackled Hubert, you have to credit the runner for being the first to get his hands on the defender and follow up with evasive action.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwI48hn3JcE?start=235&w=560&h=315]

This is why vision, leverage, and footwork in a running back can be as effective as brute strength. It’s the kind of short area skill that Warrick Dunn had at the pro level. The difference between Dunn and Hubert is speed. If Hubert can improve his speed and prove that his shifty style can get the job done against the highest tier of defensive talent, he has the makings of a contributor.

While I’m skeptical, I’m looking forward to seeing more from Hubert and K-State’s offensive schemes as I gather more information.

Should I Stay or Should I Go? RB Charles Sims – Initial Thoughts

June 11, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Running Back

Charles Sims lacks the same top-end speed as Darren McFadden but the many positives of his style are similar to the Raiders back. Photo by June 10459.

University of Houston running back Charles Sims has been in limbo this spring, but one thing seems certain: He’s leaving the Cougars. One option is this summer’s NFL Supplemental Draft. Another is is to transfer programs so he can increase his draft stock. Switching schools is a decision I believe Sims will make and I think it’s a good one.

Most see the logic here, but there is still a surprising undercurrent of disappointment among fans when a player chooses to leave his current school for another college – especially on his own volition. College football is business disguised as amateur sport, but it’s instances like this where it appears that the responsibility of maintaining the nobility of college football’s “rah-rah” veneer is on the amateur rather than the professionals running the game.

Emotional ties to a college still run deep and I don’t blame alumni for feeling this way. For some it’s an affront to their sense of loyalty to see a scholarship player “ditch” a program like Sims. However, I think this underscores a disconnect between the way alumni and fans view student-athletes and the rest of the student population.

We don’t question a student’s decision to enroll at an MBA program at a different school after he earns an undergraduate degree in business. This is the natural path for a student to maximize his earning potential in the job market. No one questions his loyalty.

Yet some don’t see it the same way with student athletes. Sims – who has earned his degree – has another year of eligibility in the sport he hopes to play as his full-time job. Just like the business student enrolling in an MBA program, Sims has strong chance to help himself in the professional football job market if he gets another year of training.

The running back is doing the right thing by studying the job market, getting feedback on his talents, and weighing the possibility of going to a higher profile football program that can help him get another year of preparation for the pros. No disrespect to the Cougars football program, but Sims understands that the perception of playing in the Big East, Big Ten, or Pac-12 carries more weight with many NFL organizations.

Houston’s athletic program will allow Sims to transfer, but ESPN’s Joe Schad says the running back may leave only if he avoids the following programs:

Any school in the American Athletic Conference
Any school on Houston’s 2013 schedule
Any school in the state of Texas

Schad’s source connected to the Cougars program says Sims is looking at Cal and West Virginia. Both situations make sense – Coaches Sonny Dykes and Dana Holgorsen are using the Houston Air Raid offense and working in conferences where Sims will get to play better competition on a bigger stage. There’s also incentive to head west: Cal’s projected starter at running back Brendan Bigelow is recovering from spring knee surgery.

Purely from the standpoint of raising one’s draft stock, Russell Wilson and Charles Sims have a lot in common right now. Where it differs is what I think ‘the game’ (agents, trainers, and other people who make money off athletes) of pro football feeds a quarterback and a running back.

Quarterbacks tend to have longer careers so there’s often encouragement for them to stay in school another year. They get to gain another year of maturity as a young adult and work at their craft on a stage where they continue to get in-game experience. Some believe this line of reasoning is just a front that the money-draft status wasn’t strong enough to go.

They may have a point, but as a parent of a young adult in college I can tell you that the potential for growth during the ages 18-22 is tremendous. Every year can feel like a person packed in three. My kid left for college a young adult who knew everything, but really didn’t know anything. I see this all the time with students I interview at Georgia.

On paper, their credentials and accomplishments are fantastic. Many go on to earn multiple undergraduate degrees, major athletic achievements, Wall Street job offers, successful entrepreneurial ventures. I’ve even seen two Rhodes Scholars pass through here.

They say all the right things, but they’re playing a role.

They’re not phony; many of them are ‘trying life on’ the same way we go to a department store to shop for clothing. My daughter chose fashion design as her course of study while working two jobs. She’s naturally a math-oriented person, but she has been making clothing for several years and has a strong creative streak.

Anyone who has earned an arts degree that requires applied application of the study knows, working two jobs and undertaking a course of study with twice the number of classes and time-consuming projects as the average undergraduate major – who will ultimately go into a less competitive field with more earning potential – is a tough road.

I’ve been there. At some point you look up from the workload around the middle of your sophomore year and see future doctors, lawyers, and bankers taking 3-4 classes a semester and still having the time of their lives. My daughter did the same thing.

However, I’ve seen my daughter learn a great deal about managing her time, her money, and resolving interpersonal conflicts. These are real life skills that you can tell a kid about, show them how to do it as the model in your everyday life, and guide their initial decisions with constructive reinforcement and practice, but until they are doing it without a net, the lessons don’t stick.

In the past year, Chandler decided to change her major and transfer schools. Since that time she’s worked a lot, saved a lot, and planned her next steps better than I imagined. The difference in how she approaches her life this summer and last is like seeing a different person with the same personality. When my wife and I think about how much Chandler has learned during this time it feels a lot more time has passed than what’s on the calendar.

These are reasons why I think it makes sense that most college quarterbacks should stay in school. That additional year of learning to manage real life benefits them and their future NFL team. Ask Pete Carrol about Marc Sanchez.

Running back is another story. It seems this position is encouraged to leave early. I think there’s a lot of selling based on fear.

What if you get hurt . . .

You could lose your job to a underclassman . . .

The average NFL career for a running back is a lot shorter than you think . . .

All of these things about competition, injury, and career length are true. For every junior like Stevan Ridley, there’s three like Tellis Redman, Danny Ware and Tony Hollings. While he had to announce he was leaving Houston to begin the process of shopping other athletic programs, it appears he has done a good job of taking a deliberate approach. And I think it would be a wise decision for him to return to school.

Sims has the talent to develop into an NFL starter. However, I do think another year at a program where the expectations will be higher, the surrounding talent a little better, and the stage a little bigger will help reinforce a healthy amount of confidence and maturity that he’ll need to develop into a successful pro.

Up Next: The film on Sims and why I think his style makes him a disciple of the Demarco Murray and Darren McFadden school.

Early `14 Takes: Rutgers WR Brandon Coleman

June 3, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Wide Receiver

Patriots rookie Mark Harrison might have been the best wide receiver on the 2013 Rutgers squad, but I’m not sure he was the most promising. That title may belong to Brandon Coleman, a 6’6″, 220-pound rising senior. Even if Coleman’s listed height gets exposed as SID-speak (Sports Information Department – also known as athletic department PR) for a true height of 6’4″, the Scarlet Knight receiver has the type of physical skills and raw technical grasp of the position to earn attention from the NFL. Some are already projecting that attention will translate to an early round pick.

I see the reasons why, but I have the luxury that many working for media corporations do not: I don’t have to deliver rankings for the 2014 class before I’ve seen enough of the class to make an informed decision. Next time you think about asking a draft analyst why a certain player was ranked so well heading into a season but by March he has a late-round grade, keep what I said in mind. It won’t always be the case, but it does pay to think critically about the nature of the business and not just about the nature of the player.

I think Coleman is the type of player whose stock could fluctuate greatly in either direction. I have studied two games of Coleman’s thus far and I can tell you that I don’t have enough information to feel comfortable saying where he stacks up. However, I enjoy writing about these murky situations. There’s often something worth sharing that the clear-cut, bottom-line answer doesn’t reveal.

What I see from Coleman that could elevate him to the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft is height, weight, speed, and the ability to adjust to the football and make these adjustments with his hands well away from the football. This 1st-and-10 target with 9:47 in the first quarter from the Rutgers seven is a good example. Coleman is the outside receiver on the twin side of an 11 personnel, 2×1 receiver set.

The Syracuse corner assigned to Coleman is a yard off the line of scrimmage and shaded outside the receiver. Coleman works outside the corner and out runs the defender, earning a step of separation at the 25 and extending his arms to make the catch on a fade route.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc8QWAVE0Nc?start=7rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Watch the replay that follows. Coleman uses his inside arm early in the route to ward off the defender’s attempt to jam him before making a nice adjustment to the ball, fading to the sideline late as the ball arrives. I especially like how Coleman secured the football. He does a nice job of using his hands and fingertips to stab the ball with his outside arm as it arrives over his inside shoulder and then secure the pass to his body with his inside arm.

This is good coordination and fluid athleticism while in the act of veering away from the defender at the last moment. This late move to achieve horizontal separation is a less-discussed aspect of getting open because the emphasis is always about getting behind the defender and that is only part of the equation. Overall, it’s a nice adjustment for a 26-yard gain.

It’s the type of play that falls into Coleman’s wheelhouse as a tall, fast, long-armed receiver. What I want to see Coleman do in 2014 is run routes with hard breaks and make catches after contact when the defender is able to lower his pads and drive through the contact as Coleman is attacking the football. If he can exhibit good technique and consistent production in these two facets of his game, Coleman will earn that high ranking.

Another thing that clouds the draft-day picture for Coleman is quarterback play at Rutgers. Coleman earned nine targets against Syracuse and all but three of those targets were to some degree errant throws that required an adjustment. None of the adjustments I categorized as difficult targets, but they were closer to that end of the spectrum than they should have been:

Under thrown deep targets
Passes thrown hard and behind the receiver’s break on short routes
Late throws that prevent the receiver from running under the ball and away from the defender

An example of what Coleman is missing from the quarterback position is this deep post with 6:46 in the first quarter on 2nd-and-five from a 12 personnel twin right formation. Coleman is the inside the receiver in this twin set and has a corner at the line of scrimmage shading the receiver to the outside.

The free safety is at the hash about eight yards deep and the strong safety and linebackers are five-six yards off the line of scrimmage in the middle of he field. The strong safety’s depth is the key for Coleman and his quarterback to know that a deep post that breaks right to left will come open behind the strong safety. Watch from 0:25-0:31 below:

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc8QWAVE0Nc?start=25rel=0&w=560&h=315]

At first glance, it appears that Coleman runs a deep post but cannot catch up to the pass as the ball lands near the Syracuse 10. Because we only see Coleman’s initial release and then him chasing the ball, one might conclude with this limited information that the receiver could not work past the corner and failed to get separation early enough to run under the ball. Watch the replay focused on the receiver’s route:

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc8QWAVE0Nc?start=34rel=0&w=560&h=315]

Coleman does face contact from the corner and he’s also in the path of the free safety over top, but the Rutgers receiver does a nice job of using his outside arm to keep the defender away from his body and at the same time reduces his inside shoulder to avoid contact from the free safety. It’s a nice release against two defenders aiming to slow him down.

I don’t think they do. If you freeze the frame at 0:38 in the video, you’ll see Coleman break inside the hash and have a solid yard of separation inside the corner. If the quarterback leads Coleman across the field, this target has a great chance of resulting in a touchdown. Instead, the quarterback throws the ball over Coleman’s right shoulder and forces an immediate adjustment from the receiver to straighten his break and veer back to the right hash.

Coleman’s adjustment is immediate, but it’s still too late for him to reach the pass. If he quarterback places the ball in the direction of the break, I have little doubt Coleman fails to reach it. One angle indicates the possibility of poor separation against two defenders, another reveals a nice route with a poor throw.

An element of Coleman’s game that requires immediate improvement is ball security. If there’s a takeaway from this Syracuse contest, it’s that Coleman’s long arms are both an asset and liability at this point in his career. This screen pass does a fine job of covering the spectrum of good and bad.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc8QWAVE0Nc?start=65rel=0&w=560&h=315]

The play is a 12 personnel weak side twin set and Coleman is the outside receiver at the Rutgers 35. The beginning of the play is a good example of how Coleman uses is long arms to win the ball and beat an opponent. He turns to the quarterback, squares his body to the target, and leaps for the ball placed over his head. This target requires good arm extension from Coleman and he makes the catch with both hands.

He secures the ball to his body and turns outside the oncoming corner who is hoping to blow up the play behind the line of scrimmage. Coleman squares the defender and makes a good, quick turn, tucking the ball to his left side and uses his use his right arm to shove the defender away. This move leaves the defender flailing for air. Coleman’s height and strength should make this a common even in his game tape, but thus far I have seen less of it than I thought.

I also like who Coleman looks to the second defensive back inside the lead blocker in the flat. Coleman does a good job working outside and then stopping and turning inside to set up the lead block as they reach the line of scrimmage. But the next decision as a ball carrier is not as clear-cut good or bad. After gaining three yards to the inside, Coleman sees the safety flash over top five yards away and opts to change direction back to the outside behind his lead blocker.

I think for this play it was a bad decision and he should have continued up the flat towards the inside. He had room to squeeze ahead of the trailing defensive end untouched and then take on the safety. This decision probably gets him close to the first down marker.

Instead, Coleman works outside, the corner beats the block, and hits the receiver over top. At the same time, the corner Coleman left on the ground earlier in the play, regains his feet, chases the receiver and delivers a hit from behind.

Like many long-limb receivers, ball carriage can be loose at the elbow for Coleman and on this play his elbow is not tight enough to his body. The cornerback hitting Coleman over top punches it loose. Although Coleman is able to turn back and pounce on the ball, it’s an indication of deficient ball security natural to his body type.

Back to the ball carrying decision in the open field. While I thought it was a bad decision, it’s the type of hindsight analysis that is difficult use when judging the player’s vision. I understand why Coleman reacted to the safety flashing across the field and opted to use his lead block a second time.

At the same time, I see many college receivers try too hard to change direction and allow the pursuit to catch them. I’d rather see more commitment to the intended path and finish with the pads low. I think the best NFL receivers tend to commit down field and keep the momentum forward. Coleman has enough strength to work through glancing blows and run through arm tackles. I’d rather see him use his size to his advantage.

Overall, I see a receiver with similar physical skill sets and limited football environment as Demaryius Thomas and Calvin Johnson when they were at Georgia Tech. I still have more to watch before I can say where he compares along that spectrum of talent, but the stylistic comparisons are evident.

The FBI of Angles: UNC RB Giovani Bernard

July 28, 2012 0 Comments read Players, Running Back

Addai and Manning — Joseph Addai’s career is winding down unceremoniously, but he was a good pick for the Colts due to his pass protection skills. North Carolina running back Giovani Bernard flashes impressive skills in a phase of the game that is vital for NFL running backs. Photo by Brad J. Ward.

For more analysis of skill players like the post below, download the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. Here’s an update on my pledge.

I have much affection for the game of former Colts and Canes running back Edgerrin James. He’s one of the few running backs I’ve seen enter the NFL as a good pass protector. It’s a skill that engendered similar love for the games of Joseph Addai and DeMarco Murray when I watched them on passing downs at LSU and Oklahoma.

If Bryce Brown had any experience with pass protection during his one season with the University of Tennessee, the Eagles might have needed to spend a pick somewhere between the third and fifth rounds to nab him. If Brown develops these skills as a rookie, the Eagles might have the best 1-2 punch at running back in the NFL by 2013. If he doesn’t, he may rarely see the field.

That’s how important pass protection is in today’s NFL. Especially in a league where the Colts and Eagles led the offensive trend of single back sets (11 and 10 personnel), which requires the running back to have more Continue reading →