Posts tagged 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

Futures: Wake Forest WR Michael Campanaro

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
A lesson from 45 percent of the Wake Forest passing game.
A lesson from 45 percent of the Wake Forest passing game.

A Lesson In Zone Routes

By Matt Waldman

The depth of the wide receiver class is one of the headlines of the 2014 NFL Draft. The subtext of this storyline that deserves more attention is how the volume of talent at the position generates massive variation of player grades from team to team across the league.

According to a scout that has worked for a few teams during his career, variation at the position is common. And the contributing factors go beyond the fundamental differences with how individuals within these organizations see talent.

Fit within the offensive scheme is the most obvious differentiating factor. One organization may use a slot receiver as primary weapon—an extension of the running game, a movable mismatch, or an every-down zone beater. Another team has specific defensive schemes where it needs a slot receiver on the field. Then there’s the offense that uses a tight end or running back in that role.

In light of these differences, a talented 5’9”, 192-pound prospect will have a second round grade for the first team; a fourth round grade for the second; and the final team considers the player an undrafted free agent. Expect a lot of hand wringing and fist shaking from fans and writers on draft day when receivers they value are passed over for receivers they don’t.

A receiver I suspect has a wide range of draft grades this year is Wake Forest’s Michael Campanaro. In eight games last year, the Demon Deacons’ receiver accounted for 41 percent of the passing game’s completions, 46 percent of its passing yards, and 55 percent of its touchdowns. His combine performance was as impressive as any receiver . . . Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

Futures: BYU OLB Kyle Van Noy

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players
Tyrann Mathieu might inspire an NFL team to consider Lamarcus Joyner in a similar role. Photo by wxcasterphx.
Is Kyle Van Noy the Tyrann Mathieu of outside linebackers? Photo by wxcasterphx.

Van Noy has all the tools to become a quality starter in the NFL. He also has the vision and decision-making to become potential star.

Futures: BYU OLB Kyle Van Noy

By Matt Waldman

When my friend Ryan Riddle, Cal’s all-time sack leader, says outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy has great instincts, that’s a player I want to watch.

“Some things in football cannot be coached. When it comes to play making instincts, you either have it or you don’t,” says Riddle about Van Noy’s play-making abilities that he describes as “off the charts.”

“I like to compare him to a linebacker version of Tyrann Mathieu in terms of his ability to be incredibly disruptive by knowing exactly how and when to take chances.”

According to Riddle, Van Noy, who Football Outsiders projects as a first or early second-day pick, is earning mid-round grades. He explains that a player with good instincts can be often be characterized as product of a good system –- even lucky. Worse yet, a coach can sometimes mishandle a player with good instincts because the process isn’t by the book.

I watched enough of Van Noy to say that he was often lucky, but it wasn’t blind luck. Van Noy’s good fortune comes from smart decisions, creativity, effort, and patience.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Player-Coach: Questioning Process vs. Questioning Authority

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Walk on the Wild Side
Photo by Mike Mozart.
There are a lot of great coaches in football, but there are also the “Cartman’s.” Photo by Mike Mozart.

It’s not often discussed, but the quality of coaching and leadership adds another layer of complexity to evaluating prospects.

One of the great things about the Internet – specifically social media – is having conversations with people who don’t go with the herd. Ryan Riddle is one of those individuals. So when my friend says outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy has great instincts, that’s a player I want to watch.

If you didn’t know already, Riddle was a defensive end at Cal who had stints with the Raiders, Ravens, and Jets. He weaves his experiences with major college football and the NFL into his coverage of the pro football at Bleacher Report.

The other night, Riddle and I were engaged in a conversation about teaching and coaching. Riddle told me that there are a lot of layers within the teacher-student dynamic on a football team that the general public doesn’t consider.

One of these layers is how a position coach teaches technique to his players. Dolphins’ receiver Mike Wallace told media at the Senior Bowl that he didn’t have any technical instruction at his position during his first three years at Ole Miss. Riddle will tell you that his defensive line coach was exacting about technique.

Good coaches know that the most efficient way for players to execute on the field is to have the right tools. So while it may be task-oriented thinking at its finest, a coach’s first inclination is to hammer home good form.

Even at the highest level of any profession, the best maintain an understanding of the fundamentals. However, the best at any profession know when to break the rules.

It’s a tough situation for a coach – especially for some of the less experienced coaches who didn’t play the position they’re teaching and may not have mastery of the unwritten rules. Even if that coach is a former grizzled vet at the position he’s teaching, he may lack the vision to recognize productive creativity that veers from basic technique.

Riddle was a creative player with NFL-level athleticism, but his coach was drilling home technique with such exactitude that it clashed with what Riddle did best. In most cases, technique should refine what a player does well rather than limit him.

Unlike many players who fear questioning the coach on this matter, Riddle was fortunate. Even when they initially butted heads in practice about playing style, Riddle and his coach always got along.

Riddle’s coach eventually realized he had a potential exception to the rule on his defensive line. Still, he had to tread a fine line between allowing behavior that could help the team and setting the ground rules that he had final say if Riddle’s way wasn’t working.

Riddle is an example of a productive relationship between a player and coach despite conflict over fundamentals. Although football is a sport where the ultimate goal is to win a conflict, the process of doing so is built on teamwork.

It’s why disagreeing with a coach on a fundamental level the way Riddle did isn’t common. Some of Riddle’s teammates had similar gripes that they kept private, even if it meant the possibility that they’re productivity could have been better for the team. It’s is a difficult thing for people to understand how slippery a slope it is for a player to have differences with a position coach.

There are good and bad coaches just as there are good and bad CEOs, doctors, teachers, and football players. If a position coach is an insecure human being who uses his role to prop up his self-esteem, a young player challenging instruction can pose a serious threat.

As with any profession, good coaches don’t always become good coaches until they’ve been bad coaches. Manage teams of people for any length of time and there will be moments where one can mistake the difference between a player questioning a process and a player questioning authority.

Good leaders understand the difference. However, there are coaches who can’t handle either scenario.

If you ever wonder why some NFL players who seem like good citizens and even better teammates were – in hindsight – puzzling late-round picks, it’s worth considering that some of these players weren’t “difficult to coach,” “soft,” “bi-polar,” or “didn’t love the game,” as their coaches characterized them to scouts.  Greg Hardy, Terrell Davis, and Arian Foster had legitimate gripes about college coaches engaged in character assassination to NFL scouts.

Riddle says there’s a tendency for coaches to over correct the small points of the game. He’s seen it to the extent that when players accept the criticism, they over think on the job and play too slow. They don’t realize that they’ve become more worried about pleasing the coach to avoid risking a bad reputation than making the play.

In Riddle’s case, his position coach sat Riddle down and talked about it. The coach told the defensive end that he was fine with Riddle’s methods, “but it better work.”

In tomorrow’s Futures at Football Outsiders, I explore why Riddle describes Van Noy as “a linebacker version of Tyrann Mathieu.”

Stay tuned.

Futures: “I am smarter than ‘Phillip’ Rivers”

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft

 

WonderlicThe Wonderlic is great for testing future loan officers, but Matt Waldman would rather have Wonderlic failures like Jim Kelly or Ray Lewis as his on-field CEOs.

Futures: I Am Smarter Than “Phillip” Rivers

 

by Matt Waldman

 

“You scored a 32 –- that’s better than Phillip Rivers. He scored a 30. Rivers’ career quarterback rating –- at 95.8 -– ranks second-best all time, one point behind Steve Young (96.8) among NFL quarterbacks with at least 1500 pass attempts. He has a career total of eleven 4th quarter comebacks.”

 

Hey Nicholas Creative Media, LLC, Rivers spells his first name with one L. Does that make me smarter than you guys, or just more experienced with writing his name?

 

Considering that I can’t go a day without calling Derek Carr ‘David’ and I still refer to former Lions running back Jahvid Best as ‘Travis’ -– the former Indiana Pacer -– I’ll opt for the latter choice.

 

Nicholas Creative Media does do a good enough job describing the basic purpose of the Wonderlic Personnel Test:

 

“The test is a sort of IQ test to measure players’ aptitude for learning and problem solving. The possible score range is 1 to 50. The average football player scores around 20 points and scoring at least 10 points suggests a person is literate.”

But let’s dig a little deeper. Read the rest at Football Outsiders

QB Jimmy Garoppolo: Knockout

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback
For illustrations of the Standing Fetal Position Variation in the pocket, read on. Photo by Steven Mileham.
For illustrations of the Standing Fetal Position Variation in the pocket, read on. Photo by Steven Mileham.

Jimmy Garoppolo’s draft stock in the media is gaining steam, but the quarterback is a player whose whole does not equal the sum of his parts.

In this week’s Futures, I wrote that scouting quarterbacks remains an untamed wilderness for the NFL. While easier for scouts to identify details like height, weight, arm strength, base accuracy, and mobility, it’s more difficult to quantify – or even qualify – that amount of sophistication that a player has when it comes to integrating these details on the field.

Reading defenses, pocket presence, touch, and placement are examples of this kind of sophistication. They aren’t easy to grade because they involve multiple variables that differ on every play.

Even so, if a team is honest and vigilant about identifying what it can – and should – spend time coaching, then it will do a better job scouting prospects. Having this kind of accurate self-assessment of its skills and priorities should help them elevate or reject prospects.

They should focus more on “knockout factors” in their scouting. Even if it’s not formalized in a scouting report or on paper, the better teams have a core identity that each player must match or he’s not on its draft board. The Ravens have it. I believe the Steelers have it. I suspect to some degree the Patriots and Seahawks do, too.

I’ve always considered having “knockout factors” in my scouting reports. Now that I’m almost 10 years into the RSP, I’m closer to incorporating them into my process. The reason I’ve waited is that a knockout factor has to be obvious.

I wouldn’t hire a musician with stage fright for a live performance. I don’t care how great his or her tone, range, rhythm, and phrasing is. I don’t care if he or she won a Grammy and an Oscar. If that person takes the stage, forgets the words, and begins hyperventilating, my decision was a huge mistake.

Certain elements of a quarterback’s game that are supposed to be the glue that hold the details together. If a quarterback lacks these elements, then I don’t care how many individual components of his game are impressive.

Ryan Riddle told On the Couch listeners this week that there tends to be more coaching of technique in college football than in the NFL. He explained that any finishing school of technique that happens in the NFL is based on peer and independent study.

It explains the existence of consultants like Chris Weinke and George Whitfield.

Just how realistic are teams about what it teach a player?  Footwork, velocity, and knowledge of defenses? Sure.

How about learning not to freeze like a statue when a 320-pound defensive tackle tosses a guard aside like a lawn bag of leaves? Different story.

I fear that the way that Eastern Illinois quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo responds to pressure could be a fatal flaw for his NFL prospects. If I’m right, Garoppolo is a player whose whole does not equal the sum of his parts.

Phantom Pressure Haunting Garoppolo’s Process

This is a two-point conversion attempt in the first quarter versus a four-man front with one safety deep to the trips side of this 3×2 empty shotgun set. You’re going to see the quick drop and pump fake that are hallmarks of his game.

However, watch the pressure that circles behind Garoppolo. Although the tackle has this play under control, Garoppolo flushes left to an open space, throws the ball to the back of the end zone, and it’s too high of target for a reception in bounds.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=93&w=560&h=315]

There are two things that Garoppolo did to the detriment of this play. First, he reacted too fast to the pressure looping to his left. I shouldn’t even call this pressure, because the tackle has his opponent under control.

It’s phantom pressure and he reacts too fast and dropped his eyes from the end zone. At the same time, Garoppolo’s movement is to an open throwing lane, which is a good thing.

Additionally, this perception of pressure doesn’t prevent Garoppolo from returning his eyes to the receiver. However, the second problem with his reaction to the pressure is that he rushed his process to deliver the ball: he threw the ball too soon, too hard, and too high.

This is an example of a player who often executes these individual details with precision, but his perception of pressure triggers him to rush his process. To be fair, this is a minor example. Even top quarterbacks can rush their process after sliding to an open lane.

Here’s more muddled thinking on a 12 personnel twin receiver set with a thorough read-option fake. Garoppolo looks up the right hash and slides a step to his right before he feels pressure from the inside.

At this point Garoppolo reverses his field to the left and his plan of action lacks clarity. The quarterback sees the safety working up the hash from seven yards away, but never squares his hips and shoulders to throw the ball to the open man. When he realizes he can’t make the throw from his current position he is only option is try to get outside the safety.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=422&w=560&h=315]

The initial hesitation to square his body is another symptom of Garoppolo lacking a clear plan on the field when the initial play doesn’t work.

Here’s a more glaring example that concerns me. This is a  play-action pass thrown 36 yards from Garoppolo’s release point to the receiver running the sideline fade. The pass lands outside the boundary and the root cause is Garoppolo’s release. The stance is wide enough, but notice how the quarterback never drives through the target.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=140&w=560&h=315]

Not only does Garoppolo fail to transfer his weight through his release, but he also delivers the ball leaning away from the line of scrimmage. If I could photoshop Jared Allen in a lunging position three steps from Garoppolo, the quarterback’s form would make sense.

This is the type of movement that I see from quarterbacks who are in a tight pocket, a hit is imminent, and there is no room to step through the release without the defender altering the throw and forcing an altered throw. Yet on this attempt, Garoppolo didn’t have a defender within range of making contact.

It’s another manifestation of a player who sees phantom pressure.

The Standing Fetal Position

The next play is one of the more damning examples of Garoppolo having brain freeze. It’s a first-quarter pass from an empty shotgun.

Garoppolo sets his feet within two steps after the snap while he’s looking up the left seam. Pressure turns the corner on the right tackle and eventually sacks the quarterback, but I don’t believe Garoppolo even feels the edge rush.

After multiple viewings, I believe the quarterback drops his head and shoulders into a crouch because he’s bracing himself for the oncoming bull rush from the defensive tackle.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=248&w=560&h=315]

There are three first reactions a quarterback can have in the face of middle pressure. The most common is to retreat – either turn tail and run or put it in reverse. The more advance option – when available – is to slide left or right while keeping the eyes down field and then climb to open space, if necessary.

Garoppolo exhibits the third option – the fetal position.

Standing Fetal Garoppolo

Granted, the quarterback opts for the standing variety as opposed to the full-blown, “put-my-thumb-in-my-mouth-and-read-me-a-bedtime-story,” fetal position. But even when Garoppolo realizes that he’s a beat away from a turf-nap and spins to his right, the initial frozen reaction affords the edge rush to reach the quarterback for the sack.

This isn’t an isolated play. These are three plays from the same quarter. I wish I could tell you this was a bad day from Garoppolo, but these are consistent tendencies in other games. 

Here’s one of two I’ll show from the Tennessee State game (and there are more). This is a 10 personnel shotgun set with 2:47 in the first quarter with a three-step drop and shoulder fake to the inside trips receiver at the line of scrimmage.

Can you tell when Garoppolo senses the pressure on this play?

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTWi8kN8qnM&start=194&w=560&h=315]

Yup, it’s another game of freeze tag – except most kids get tagged and claim they weren’t. Garoppolo has the opposite problem. The pressure arrives outside the left tackle and the push up the middle forces the quarterback to drop his eyes and slide to the left.

Garoppolo checks down, the receiver juggles the ball and makes the catch, but he’s dropped for a loss. Another panicked pay.

The standing fetal position is almost as common as Garopplo’s penchant for pump fakes, but I’d rather see the ball fakes.

Here’s another strong example of this unfortunate maneuver after dropping from an 01 personnel shotgun set. Garoppolo feels the pressure from the defender working inside the left guard.

On this play, Garoppolo  does a good job flushing to his right, but it’s a short-lived reaction. Once he sees the depth that the defensive end gets on the right tackle, Garoppolo drops his head and shoulders and freezes.

Unlike the previous play, he has time to work past that first reaction and spin outside his right tackle. Garoppolo reaches the edge and delivers the ball to the right sideline.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=252&w=560&h=315]

Garoppolo avoids the bad result, but his tendency to freeze first-react second is a red flag.

Coming Up Short On Potential Big Plays

As I said, it’s not just the NIU game where Garoppolo freezes like a deer in headlights. Here’s a red zone play against Tennessee State that should be a flashing red light of caution to NFL decision makers about giving this quarterback a top-100 grade.

This is a 3rd-and-goal with 8:54 in the first quarter from the opponent’s 2. Double A-gap pressure is working through the pocket as Garroppolo looks left after a one-step motion from the snap to set his feet.

Watch how early Garoppolo ducks his head and shoulders before the pressure arrives.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTWi8kN8qnM&start=120&w=560&h=315]

Not a good look. While better to take a sack than throw a red zone interception, it’s also far better to throw the ball away or climb the pocket and find an open man.

With 6:34 left and trailing, Garoppolo anticipates contact on a 2nd-and-16 at EIU’s 18. NIU sends six players – two off right guard.

Garroppolo executes a play fake from center, but as soon as he finishes his turn from the fake exchange, he anticipates contact and goes into the standing fetal position before moving into the full fetal soon after.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=777&w=560&h=315]

I understand “live for another play,” but this is the end of the game and it’s time to fight; not give up.

Here’s a red zone play in the fourth quarter from 20 personnel. Garoppolo throws the slant, but the edge pressure forces Garoppolo to alter his release and the ball comes out funny.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=722&w=560&h=315]

A clear case of Garoppolo rushing his process. I feel bad highlighting this play in today’s football environment, because don’t referees tell boxers to protect themselves at all times? Still, you don’t see this behavior among most NFL starters.

To be fair, Garoppolo will take a hit. However, I believe he only follows through with any consistency on two set conditions. Here’s a shotgun pass with a three-step drop facing five-man pressure.

Garoppolo looks to the right hash and just gets the ball off as he’s hammered off the edge. The receiver makes the catch and earns yardage as a runner.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=533&w=560&h=315]

It is an example of Garoppolo taking a hit, but there are two conditions in play: The impending hit is coming off the edge so Garoppolo doesn’t see the hit coming and the route was wide open.

More Eyes; Less Body

Garoppolo often wins because of his pace and misdirection. His drops and releases are touted first and foremost.

Combine this pacing with a play fake or a pump fake, and he can put defenders on their heels in the short game. But Garoppolo needs a change-up or teams will catch on and know that the pump fake is the quarterback’s substitute for looking off the opposition.

This 4th-and-8 pass with 2:11 in the first quarter is a shotgun pass were Garoppolo uses a pump fake before delivering the slant, but he stares down the receiver and the trailing corer undercuts the pass for an interception.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=367&w=560&h=315]

Here’s another with 5:07 in the half. Garoppolo takes two steps to set his feet and pump fakes to the shallow cross. Only one of the two linebackers bite on the pump fake and when Garoppolo targets the deeper cross, the defense deflects the target. 

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXNISUKn1NA&start=466&w=560&h=315]

Pace and manipulation are excellent tools for an NFL quarterback, but even what Peyton Manning does is often predictable. The difference is that a lot of teams lack the total defense to stop him. Garoppolo is not Peyton Manning and he’s not facing a defense the caliber of the Seattle Seahawks.

Is it impossible for Garappolo to address his pocket presence? Of course not. Have I ever seen it when the issues are this dramatic? Not in recent memory.

As critical as I am about what I perceive to be a critical lack of nuance to his game, I want Garoppolo to succeed. However, if I were a decision-maker for a team I’d rather be proven wrong with him playing elsewhere.

No matter how high the sum of his total of parts may be on some scouting reports, he wouldn’t be on my board.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – available to pre-order now, and for download April 1. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Scouting QBs: Separating the Dark From the Dark

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Matt Waldman, Players, Quarterback
Being wrong about Gabbert far hurts the ego, but helps my process. Photo by PDA.Photo.
Being wrong about Gabbert far hurts the ego, but helps my process. Photo by PDA.Photo.

After spending an insane amount of time during the last decade studying players, talking with scouts, and paying attention to history, I have learned three things about evaluating football talent:

  • Scouting and quarterbacking are about detail and nuance.
  • Experience matters, but not like you think.
  • Quarterback remains the untamed wilderness of football evaluation.

These are my personal lessons. No one shared these three points as teachable nuggets from the book of scouting. The last two insights are unintended consequences of professionals making opposite statements.

After 10 years of studying football games, I have gained enough experience to see that I’m not an expert. As the great poet Philip Levine wrote, I’ve “begun to separate the dark from the dark.”

Today, I’m sharing these degrees of darkness about scouting quarterbacks. The hope is that separating the dark from the dark may one day provide a process that is a more reliable way to find the light.

Detail and Nuance

During one of our frequent phone conversations, Footballguys.com co-owner Sigmund Bloom and I concluded that the simplest way to describe good quarterbacking is to compare it to another job. Cooks and musicians offer good parallels, but the best is that of a skilled craftsman.

I used to build sets at a theater. I learned how to use a wide variety of tools. I even gained some welding experience.

Give me directions and materials and a garage full of tools and I can assemble something bought at a store after I’ve taken it apart at least once. But I’m not the guy you want to help you with a home improvement project or a repair. Unless it’s the simplest of tasks, I’d be pulled from the job within an hour.

On the other hand, give my wife Alicia a small toolbox with half the tools and she’ll not only have the job completed with time to spare, she’ll also have spotted and addressed two other problems around your house that you didn’t know about. She didn’t start working on houses until her early 30s, but within three years she owned her own remodeling company and did everything but electric and plumbing.

You need tools to do a job, but nuance to do the job well. I had all the tools, but none of the nuance. Alicia had half the tools and a ton of nuance.

Good quarterbacking is craftsmanship. There are a basic minimum of tools (details) to complete the job: height, weight, speed, arm strength, accuracy, etc. However the craftsman integrates the tools, his knowledge, and his experience to execute at the highest level of performance.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

RSP Publication Update

0 Comments read RSP Publication
The RSP is to draft analysis as Matt Forte is to NFL running backs - versatile, underrated, and appreciated by those in the know. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.
The RSP is to draft analysis as Matt Forte is to NFL running backs – versatile, underrated, and appreciated by those in the know. Photo by John Martinez Pavliga.

The RSP is still on schedule for reader download on April 1.

I finished my last budgeted game of film study Friday night. Here is the rough list of players who will appear in the pre-draft publication. There are a handful of players who have not declared for the draft on this list. They will appear in the 2015 RSP.

There are also a handful of prospects I didn’t have a chance to study prior to my research deadline. Among them are quarterbacks Jordan Lynch, Tom Savage, and Keith Price. I’ll be studying them for the RSP Post-Draft Add-on, which you get free with purchase of the pre-draft publication.

For those of you new to the RSP, the April 1 publication ranks players on talent without regard to character or “draft stock”. The Post-Draft Add-on gives a pragmatic perspective to rankings based on the NFL Draft and is available for download a week after the draft.

I tell my readers that the pre-draft is the purer analysis. Three years from now, a player’s round of selection will mean much less than it will two months from now.

Sometimes, it happens three months after the draft: Marlon Brown, Kenbrell Thompkins, and Alfred Morris are all players that you wouldn’t find much about in most publications because they weren’t even considered “the supporting cast” on draft day. I have not have ranked them in my top-10, but I gave them prominent attention and ranking devoid of the class warfare that is draft status.

You’ll want to know about a player’s talent based on game film and football beat writers often lack the time, space, and knowledge to tell you. If you’re lucky, they’ll tell you where the player came from, when he was drafted (if at all), and some old stat or one-liner about his physical skills.

The savvy ones get the RSP.

You can order the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio now and I’ll email you when its available for download on April 1 (sometimes earlier for those who order before that date). The Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and is available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 2/28/2014

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

 

Joe Montana's legendary cool-under-fire humor reminds me of Bill Murray in Stripes. Wouldn't you want him saving the world? Read on. Photo by David Shankbone.
Joe Montana’s legendary cool-under-fire humor reminds me of Bill Murray in Stripes. Wouldn’t you want him saving the world? Read on. Photo by David Shankbone.

This Week’s RLV: Why the RSP shows its work, Chase Stuart’s Combine MVP,  and one funky spider.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/edUGRcKHccA]

What is Reads Listens Views?

If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog, welcome. Every Friday, I post links to content I’m saving for later reading when I have time. You may not like everything listed here, but you’re bound to like something.

In Case You Missed It

Who would you pick to defend the planet in a science fiction football game? Photo by Frankula.
Who would you pick to defend the planet in a science fiction football game? Photo by Frankula.

I posed this fantastical question to Ryan Riddle and Sigmund Bloom the other day: If an alien race came to earth and challenged the human race to a game of football with the planet on the line, who would be your starting quarterback?

I have my answer, but I want to hear yours.

I don’t care how you imagine the aliens. Nor do I care if you pick a player who is 60 or six feet under and the aliens resurrect/revive him to his peak physical powers. That dilemma is for your twisted imagination.

I just want to know who you pick.

Here’s the follow-up question: If the aliens’ deal is that we have to pick a quarterback from this 2014 draft class, who would it be? I’ll be holding a tournament to decide. Make your nomination here.

Thank You

You picked this guy high despite a nagging injury if you followed the 2013 RSP. Photo by John Martinez-Paviliga
You picked this guy high despite a nagging injury if you followed the 2013 RSP. Photo by John Martinez-Paviliga

Friday’s are also my chance to thank you for reading my work, encourage you to follow the RSP blog, and download the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

The RSP is available every April 1 for download. It’s a 250-page (give or take) draft publication filled with analysis of over 170 skill position prospects that has earned it a loyal following of happy readers:

  • Rankings
  • Draft history analysis
  • Overrated/Underrated analysis
  • Multidimensional player comparisons
  • Individual skills analysis by position

This is only some of what you receive in the RSP publication. I began writing the RSP 9 years ago. At the time, I was an operations and process improvement manager who was certified in an operations certification standard. The training included best practices for performance evaluation processes – and quality performance from my teams was a hallmark of my work for nearly 15 years.

As much as I loved and studied football, I knew that the only way anyone would buy into my analysis would be to show my work. This meant making everything as transparent as possible:

  • How I define everything I grade
  • The point values for my grading
  • The checklists/reports that I use for the grading
  • All the play-by-play notes I take for the games that I grade

That’s right, I show my work down to the play-by-play notes. The “back of the RSP” is often another 700-1000 pages of content that comes with the 250-page RSP pre-draft guide.

Don’t worry, at least half of my readers never look at this part of the RSP.  However, those who like to crosscheck their own scouting reports (be it media, draftniks, or scouts), find this material a worthwhile resource. Even if they don’t agree with all of my assessments, the back of the book gives them a clear indication of why I made the calls that I did.

You can learn more about the RSP here. If you want to see samples of the play-by-play notes I take to write the analysis, you can find them here.

If you don’t have time to look into details, know that once you look through the RSP, there will be no question in your mind that I do the work, that I have a plan about the work that I do, and that you get more than your money’s worth. It’s why more and more draftniks every spring can’t wait until April 1.

If you think that’s a ton, you ain’t seen nothing. When you purchase the RSP, you also get a free post-draft publication that’s available for download a week after the NFL Draft. Fantasy football owners tell me all the time that this alone is worth the price.

Best yet, 10 percent of each RSP sale is donated to Darkness to Light, a non-profit devoted to preventing and addressing sexual abuse through community training in schools, religious groups, and a variety of civic groups across the U.S.

Here is what the RSP donated to D2L this year. According to D2L, the RSP’s 2013 donation amount was enough to train 250 adults in communities across the country.

Pre-order the 2014 RSP and/or download past versions of the publication (2006-2012).

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[youtube=http://youtu.be/ZhNOJKXTVVs]

 

Futures: 2014 Speed Score Leaders

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back

Where Bo Jackson 2.0 could be made . . . photo by Dancelilsister.
Where Bo Jackson 2.0 could be made . . . photo by Dancelilsister.

If I had a laboratory fitting of a mad scientist, Football Outsiders’ Speed Score would have its application. What about now?

Futures: The 2014 Speed Score Leaders

By Matt Waldman

Indulge me in a bit of fantasy. Imagine an old football field. It’s a practice field at the rear of an abandoned high school with woods surrounding it on three sides. Behind the north goal post is an equipment building no bigger than a backyard storage shed with a green tin roof, white cinderblock, and a steel blue door held three-quarters shut with a rusted chain and pad lock.

Squeeze inside this dark, dilapidated building and you’ll find Craig James’ concussed son -– wrong story. Let’s try again…

Squeeze inside this cobweb-filled space and you’ll find nothing but a bench press station with a torn vinyl cushion. Reach into the tear of the cushion and there’s a switch that opens a trap door in the floor near the entrance that reveals a long, torch-lit spiral staircase made of stone that leads to the secret laboratory of M. Waldman, mad scientist of offensive skill talent.

The demented (but good) doctor is pouring over plans to create Bo Jackson 2.0. He has set up shop in the southeastern United States because of regional and socio-economic factors that point to it as the best area to produce a rare athlete for the game. He’s hacked into the medical records of pediatrician offices and narrowed the field of candidates to boys who are projected to develop into young men between five-foot-nine and six-foot-one and have the skeletal-muscular potential to carry 210-to-225 lbs.

Like a formula to determine the tensile stress of a material for an engineering firm, Football Outsiders’ Speed Score would have an ideal application in M. Waldman’s secret lab. The problem wouldn’t be constructing the running backs, but preventing Nick Saban from breaking them before they reach the NFL.

In the reality of the NFL Draft, the Speed Score provides a layer of analysis that illuminates the players with desirable physical skills. The idea is a fine one: if they’re big and explosive, they’ll have the strength-speed-agility to measure on a spectrum that ends with terminates at Bo Jackson.

But we know that good running backs come in all shapes and sizes. Darren Sproles and Brandon Jacobs illustrate how the range of height, weight, speed, strength, and agility of successful players at the position is wider than any in the NFL.

The differences in size are also indicative of the specialization of the position that has evolved over the years. The New Orleans Saints three different types of runners on its depth chart:

  • Darren Sproles — A hybrid of a scat-back, slot receiver, and return specialist.
  • Pierre Thomas — A utility back that does his best work in pass protection, draws, and screens.
  • Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson — Traditional power backs who do best with a high volume of touches.

The Patriots, Cardinals, Bengals, Colts, Chargers, Panthers, Lions, and Falcons have at least two runners with roles that may blend in some places, but have distinct separation of labor in others. Based on recent drafts, one could argue that the Packers, 49ers, and Washington had similar aspirations.

Specialization offers more avenues for a variety of physical talents at the running back position to earn a roster spot. However, it doesn’t create more opportunities for running backs overall.

There’s a lot of talent on the street that can enter an NFL locker room, exit the tunnel to the field on Sunday afternoon, post 80-100 yards, and help a team win a game. The fact that Thomas and Robinson -– two UDFAs -– are viable options is a testament to this point.

Joique Bell, Alfred Morris and Arian Foster’s numbers all sound the refrain that a quality NFL running back often requires a lot less of what we emphasize as “good foot-speed.” There’s another type of speed that these three possess that is as important as foot-speed, agility, balance, and vision –- “processor speed.”

It’s an attribute often linked with vision –- a quality that is difficult to quantify unless one deconstructs “vision” into definable components. I still link processor speed with vision –- it’s the mental speed that a football player sees the position of the players on the field, links it to the game situation, and executes the appropriate physical reaction to the this environment-stimuli.

Processor speed enhances on-field speed. Watch a tentative or confused player and subtract tenths of a second of his execution time. While you’re at it, begin subtracting positive plays, playing time, and ultimately a contract with the team.

Clean, consistent technique is another factor that enhances on-field speed. There are receivers with 4.3-speed that cannot separate from cornerbacks because they cannot run clean routes. However, there are much slower pass catches whose routes are so good that they earn separation as if they had great foot-speed.

There’s no silver bullet or code to crack that will yield accurate projections of rookie prospects with quantifiable precision. Because the mad scientist’s football laboratory is only a pipe-dream, it’s important to view players that score high on Football Outsiders’ Speed Score within the context of the rest of their skills.

Nevertheless, the 2014 version of the Speed Score offers an intriguing quartet of players at its top: Oklahoma’s Damien Williams, Georgia Southern’s Jerick McKinnon, Stanford’s Tyler Gaffney, and Notre Dame’s George Atkinson. I’m not convinced all four have a place in the NFL, but even before Aaron Schatz asked me to write about them, I thought each offered an intriguing storyline.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

No-Huddle Series: WR/KR Bruce Ellington

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
"+4 Wand of Instant Inferno" or as I call it, "Bruce Ellington Abstract" Photo by Dvanzuijlekom.
“+4 Wand of Instant Inferno” or as I call it, “Bruce Ellington Abstract” Photo by Dvanzuijlekom.

Bruce Ellington is like a Swiss Army knife equipped with a butane lighter that doubles as a jet pack.

A couple weeks ago, I was a guest on Elise Woodward’s show on 950 KJR Seattle talking Seattle wide receivers and the NFL Draft. Woodward asked me which receivers I think the Seahawks might take in the first couple of rounds if the team parts ways with either Sidney Rice or Golden Tate. She also asked me to consider my answer with the knowledge that Seattle has a penchant for surprising the general public with “reaching” for players they like earlier than the dictates of conventional wisdom.

By the way, the true definition of conventional wisdom is a gathering spot for lots of folks who are about to look foolish.

My projected picks for Seattle in this hypothetical on-air game were Martavis Bryant as the replacement for Rice and Bruce Ellington as the replacement for Tate. Woodward, who is one of my favorite sports radio hosts around, immediately sparred with me on that choice – and rightfully so.

“But he’s FIVE-NINE . . . FIVE-NINE!!! The Seahawks already have smaller guys like Baldwin . . . ”

Fast forward to today. What the public knows now is that Ellington runs a 4.3-40. He’s as fast as any of the top receiving prospects in this class.

What I don’t think a lot of the public knows is that the 5’9″, 196-pound Ellington is the type of prospect I’m drooling over. If I were building an offense and wanted a scheme that would allow my quarterback to look over the defense and then shift 2-3 players to alter the alignment and change the match-up advantage against the opposition (think Patriots with Rob Gronkowski, Shane Vereen, and – in theory – Aaron Hernandez), Ellington would be one of my targets.

The two-sport star from South Carolina is one of the more impressive open-field ball carriers at his position and the excellent often appears on the smallest gains. Moreover, Ellington is an intermediate and deep threat, who I believe will make the transition to a more physical bump-and-run NFL game.

The reason is his basketball skill. Conventional wisdom – there they go again in that meeting space dreaming up stupidity dressed in a logical suit – always worries that former basketball players-turned football players aren’t used to the physical play of the gridiron.

As blockers, I agree. However, basketball players are facing tight, physical coverage catching passes and driving lanes. Earning separation against tight man or zone defense is a fundamental part of basketball.

Tony Gonzalez, Jimmy Graham, and Antonio Gates are great examples of basketball players who have been among the best tight-coverage receivers at the position and changed the game. Terrell Owens and Randy Moss were pretty good basketball players. Both were excellent in tight coverage.

Don’t just think of Bruce Ellington playing football when watching these highlights below, imagine him driving a lane or working free of a defender in tight coverage on the court to receiving a pass. The fact Ellington has the raw athleticism (speed, quickness, and strength) and conceptual athleticism (when and how to move) is a product of playing both games at a high level.

Scraping Blocks and Setting Up Creases

The play below is a 2nd and 4 with 1:23 in the first quarter from a 1×3 receiver 10 personnel shotgun. Ellington is the middle trips man with the ball the right hash at the 33 versus a 3-3-5 defensive look. The play will be a bubble screen to the left flat where Ellington will catch the ball three yards behind the line of scrimmage.

The NFL has adopted this play enough that Ellington should have an immediate opportunity to earn a small set of plays in an offense with the potential for a big impact. Think Andrew Hawkins for the Bengals before he got hurt.

Ellington makes the catch, tucks the ball under his left arm and works to the inside shoulder of his teammate in the slot before sliding behind the back of he defender to press and cut through that hole his two receiver teammates open. I call this tight work behind the back of a blocker “scraping a block.”

It’s not a technical term from football, but the act of working in close proximity of blocks without colliding with blockers is a useful way to use a lack of height and loads of quickness to one’s advantage as a ball carrier.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=110&w=560&h=315]

Ellington reads the outside corner making his approach inside and slides to his outside receiver, setting up a cutback to the inside. This setup fakes out the defensive back working past the outside receiver. The result of these moves helps Ellington split the defense, get the first down, and reach the 20. He finishes after contact to gain a few more to the 17.

Physicality

Dexter McCluster is no Bruce Ellington. What I mean is that the average fan might think of a 5’9″ receiver and associate him with a player like McCluster, who is a fine football player capable of withstanding physical play, but not one who will be returning the favor on opponents.

Ellington is more along the spectrum of a faster Hines Ward. Not as physical, but he has enough physicality to block like a running back. This 1st-and-goal with 0:43 int he first quarter form a 12 personnel twin-left shotgun set at the three of Vanderbilt is a good example.

The slot receiver begins the alignment at the left hash with a defensive back five yards off. The Gamecocks send Ellington in motion across the right end offset the tight end. At the snap, Ellington works inside-out, delivering a strong punch to the defensive back to clear the lane for the quarterback sneak for the score.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=147&w=560&h=315]

Ellington may be short, but at 196-pounds he’s mighty and physical. Moreover, he does a fine job of setting up his position on the defensive back to make the play. Thank a basketball education on setting position.

I also like that Ellington can cut-block. It’s a craft that many receivers and backs fail at miserably. I watched Andre Williams attempt six cut blocks in a game against Florida State this year. He executed one with good technique and with the desired end result of knocking the defender off his feet.

The other five? Williams either didn’t use the proper technique to work across the defender’s frame, didn’t drive through the defender, or telegraphed his intentions. Ellington has no such problem on this screen pass where he opens the field for his teammate to earn the first down.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=286&w=560&h=315]

Layers Of Moves

Here’s another bubble screen from a 1×3 receiver, 10 personnel shotgun set with the ball at the left hash of the 30. Ellington is the middle trips man facing a nickel look. He catches the ball with his hands close to his body and turns up field from the 27 as his two blockers engage the slot defensive back and the cornerback.

Ellington displays another fine understanding of press-and-cutback technique by working inside the slot man before cutting outside. However, there’s another layer to this cutback that dazzles me and that’s how he combines the outside cut with an outside spin to work behind the cornerback and reach the 32.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=167&w=560&h=315]

It’s not a huge gain, but the movement in tight space is impressive. It’s a small hint of something exciting that many will ignore. However, I bet we’ll see a lot more of it in the NFL and it will earn him far more yards.

More Than Bubble Wrap

Bubble screens are like bubble wrap. They have a use and they’re fun to play with, but it wears thin fast. Ellington’s game is far more than the bubble screen.

Here is a 10 personnel shotgun set with receivers 2×2 on 3rd and 8 with 11:48 in the half from the South Carolina 33 and facing a 3-3-5 look with two safeties deep. Ellington is the slot right receiver at the right hash with a defender playing four yards off Ellington and inside the hash.

The receiver works past the defensive back with an outside release, catches the fade a step past the defender as the ball arrives over his inside shoulder a the Vandy 39 and turns up the right sideline of the 35. Ellington does an especially good job of using his inside arm to frame separation after he earned separation from the defender.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=176&w=560&h=315]

Ellington runs through a wrap to his arm by raising his inside arm to ward off the contact at the 33 and stays in-bounds another 4 yards. The result is a 28-yard catch and 38 yards total on the play. Although there’s a small juggle of the ball after making a catch close to his chest, this is not indicative of Ellington’s game.

Money Catch

Making a catch into the teeth of the defense with a hit on the way is what I call the Money Catch. It’s why Anquan Boldin is about to make more money at an advanced age for a wide receiver.

Here’s a 3rd and 7 with 10:13 in the half from a 1×2 receiver, 20 personnel shotgun set. Ellington is at the left hash at the slot man facing a nickel back that is playing four yards deep and shaded outside. The ball is at the right hash of the Vandy 31.

Ellington runs a post route between the defensive backs in the red zone, making the catch over his inside shoulder, and taking a hit in the process.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQOypGFtz5U&start=204&w=560&h=315]

Money.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Ki-G4vWMK9o]

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – available to pre-order now. The 2014 RSP will available for download April 1. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.