Posts tagged 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

Reads Listens Views 2/21/2014

February 21, 2014 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

"+4 Wand of Instant Inferno" or as I call it, "Bruce Ellington Abstract" Photo by Dvanzuijlekom. — “+4 Wand of Instant Inferno” or as I call it, “Bruce Ellington Abstract” Photo by Dvanzuijlekom.

This Week’s RLV: 2-hr couch session on rookie QBs, Lil’ Darlin’, David Fales Developmental Gem?, 2 Muggs and my ugly mug.

Listens – Speaking of Infernos . . .

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Ns02jzH8Ccw]

Michael Brecker may look more like a Philadelphia-area accountant than a musician, but if you ever heard the Saturday Night Live Band from the 70s or listened to Cameo’s “Candy” then you know different. He’s a musician’s musician and one of the greatest saxophonists in history.

Welcome

A 261-page online publication that provides 1029 pages of play-by-play notes from my evaluation database and 10 percent of your purchase is donated to fight sexual abuse. Pre-order 2014 now.

If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog, welcome. Every Friday, I post links to things I’m checking out when I’m online. You may not like everything listed here, but you’re bound to like something. It’s also my chance to thank you for reading my work and encourage you to follow the RSP blog and buy the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

For those of you new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, the publication is available every April 1 for download. You can learn more about the RSP here. If you want to see samples of the play-by-play notes I take to write the analysis, you can find them here. And to download past versions of the publication (2006-2012) or to pre-order the 2014 RSP, go here.

If you don’t have time to look into details, then I’ll say this about the RSP: Once you look through the RSP, there will be no question in your mind that I do the work, that I have a plan about the work that I do, and that you get more than your money’s worth.

In addition to the RSP and the post-draft publication that comes with it a week after the NFL Draft, 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light. This organization is a non-profit devoted to preventing and addressing sexual abuse through community training in schools, religious groups, and a variety of civic groups across the U.S.

Here is what the RSP donated to D2L this year. According to D2L, the RSP’s 2013 donation amount was enough to train 250 adults in communities across the country.

Listens

Where Bloom and I meet in the cosmos. Photo by David Stillman.

Last Night’s On The Couch: Two-hour quarterback therapy covering these topics and more:

Deconstructing the myths of Johnny Manziel.
Teddy Bridgewater and why the sum of quarterbacking is greater than its parts.
Which team takes the chance or passes on Derek Carr?
What does the choice of quarterback tell us about the personality of the head coach?
Sorting out the upsides of Carr, Aaron Murray, and David Fales in the context of current pros.
Break-downs and expectations for Brett Smith and Logan Thomas.
Which quarterback in this class is acting like Justin Beiber?

Good times. Hopefully you find it informative. If you want more, I was also recently on with the 2Muggs crew – not to give them second-billing, it’s just a few days older. In that podcast we have a good time talking about these topics:

The how and why behind the RSP Publication.
What makes Sammy Watkins special and is he more than speed?
Where does Mike Evans fit within this class and is he a special prospect?
Is Isaiah Crowell in a similar situation at this point of the draft process as Christine Michael last year?

Reads (Football)

Combine Day 1: Around The Podium – Cecil Lammey on location giving you good info – (Ryan Boser, see the quote about Marcus Wheaton).
How Scouting Opponents Supplemented For My Lack of Physical Ability – Can’t way to read this one from Ryan Riddle.
The Read Code of The NFL Locker Room – Fine story by Mark Schlereth that is worth reading if you are a week behind.
How Sports Illustrated Botched The Michael Sam Story – recommended by Chase Stuart after he wrote this fine piece on the same subject.

Reads (Non-Football)

This dwelling dug underground is called a “yaodong” and it’s one of many homes created in unexpected places around the world. See below.

Table of Exercises For Getting Fit Without Any Equipment – One of my weird early-middle age obsessions: having a workout routine I can do in the space of prison cell.
James Ellroy Interview – I love the movie LA Confidential. This is the writer of the novel. Terrific writer, who hates The Wire. I love the show. Fascinating read.
Norton Lecturer Herbie Hancock on The Wisdom of Miles Davis – More of a listen/view. Looking forward to checking this out one day.
Communities in Unexpected Places – A well-done photo-driven piece.
Why The Brains of Dogs and Humans Are More Similar Than You Think
Superpower Vision Lets Cats And Dogs See In Ultraviolet

Listens – “Lil’ Darlin'”

[youtube=http://youtu.be/FMibKxQWRnw]

This is a technically difficult gem because it’s hard to swing with this kind of patience.

No-Huddle Series: David Fales, Developmental Gem?

February 20, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback

Can San Jose State quarterback David Fales develop more velocity on this throws like Drew Brees? Read on.

Eric Stoner at Draft Mecca is one of the first draftniks I know who watched David Fales and liked his game. I do, too. When I talked about what I saw in the 6-1, 22o-lb.starter at San Jose State to a scout I know, his response was that Fales has a “niche market” – and the scout includes himself in that group.

RSP: I’m digging on David Fales as a developmental guy at QB. I think he can learn to drive off that front foot earlier and integrate it to gm

Scout:Hah, I love Fales as a developmental guy; he’s an enigma though at times.

RSP: There are times when he anticipates and then simpler plays where he hesitates. Then plays against Cover 3 where I’m scream at the TV – CHECK-DOWN! Still, I love that he wants to bust your ass if you blitz him – Love that attitude.

Scout: He’s got a good head on his shoulders and seems to have some instincts; he will sail throws trying to compensate for arm strength though.

RSP; I think his footwork is really off. I was watching him vs. Brees just 10 minutes ago on some similar throws. Brees’ front foot comes down well before he finishes the follow-through. Fales’ front foot doesn’t’ come down until the ball is nearly out. He doesn’t drive off that front leg and the ball sails and lacks velocity on some throws.

Scout: A lot of times the footwork/stride stuff is an issue for a guy who doesn’t have a feel for when to zip it vs use touch.

RSP: And I see that. Up the middle, he’s pretty good. He can get into the 40-yard range with some zip at times. He often struggles on these throws down the middle he has to climb and his feet don’t get settled. But on the perimeter? Sometimes he can’t deliver a good ball not much more than 30 yards.

Scouts: He has a bad habit of not driving balls outside; I saw it pretty clearly in Senior Bowl up in the crow’s nest with [deleted]. Yeah, he’s a pretty niche market guy, but I still like him well enough to say he could be a No.3 right away with solid potential.

Here are a few things that I’ve seen in recent weeks-months that led me to broach the topic of Fales. These are visual examples of some of the things discussed above.

Pocket Presence and Aggressive Mentality

This is a 1st and 10 pass with 9:23 in the first quarter from a 2×2 receiver, 10 personnel shotgun set versus the San Diego State Aztecs. The ball is at the 35 of the opponent’s left hash and the defense is playing a 3-3-5 look with no safety deep. Five defenders at at the line of scrimmage, including two edge rushers standing up outside the tackles.

On this play Fales takes a three-step drop looking left as the defense sends all five defenders to the pocket. As he finishes this three-step drop, his focus turns to the middle of the field. Fales’ eye manipulation and skill at working through multiple receivers during a drop back is a consistent part of his game.

As Fales finishes his drop, pressure form the edge takes an inside track to the pocket. Fales does a good job of climbing inside the defender and throwing the ball from the 42 of San Diego State’s left hash to the eight. The receiver is running a post breaking to the middle of the field.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZigsJdm75M&start=78&w=560&h=315]

Although the receiver drops this target – a pass that is catchable, it’s a low throw. What I like about the throw is the placement between the S and the CB. What’s disappointing is that if Fales delivered this ball with more velocity and on a line, he could have hit the receiver in stride beyond the saety and inside the corner for a touchdown.

This is the type of throw a starter at the NFL drives on a line for a score and has commentators drooling over the throw. If Fales can develop a better arm to drive the ball 40-45 yards rather only 34 yards, his pocket presence, field vision, and anticipation make him a promising player.

Here’s another example of Fales splitting the zone defenders after addressing pressure. This is a 3rd-and-12 with 1:55 in the third quarter from a 2×2 receiver, 10-personnel shotgun set with the ball at the 45 of San Jose State.

The Aztecs’ defense is once again using a 3-3-5 look. Fales takes a three-step drop facing four defenders attacking the pocket. He looks left, turns right, and hitches a step before throwing the crossing route that splits two defenders in zone for an 18-yard completion and a first down.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZigsJdm75M&start=610&w=560&h=315]

Extrapolate the velocity of this throw to the first highlight and you see the possibilities for Fales if he can achieve greater arm strength and velocity. If not, this range of 18-30 yards will be what he does best.

It’s a range that’s good enough for Fales to provide services as a valued backup – especially a player with his pocket presence, anticipation, and aggressive mentality. I love that Fales often sees the open field the blitz has left behind and he loves to get rid of the ball fast to take advantage of it.

When the play allows Fales to drop the ball in the bucket with distance and touch rather than distance and velocity, the San Jose State quarterback does this as well as any quarterback in this class. However at this point, Fales’ eyes often exceed his arm.

There are situations where I watch Fales forgo the check-down to a running back and he’ll wait an extra beat to attack down field to the detriment of the play because he lacks the gun to hit his receiver on-time an in a tight window from that range. His tight-window accuracy is good, but when the velocity fails, Fales falters.

Development Opportunity: Footwork

One of the ways Fales misses receivers in the deep-intermediate and deep zones is overthrows. I’m sure this seems counter-intuitive after I just explained that Fales’ lacks velocity on deeper throws. However, overthrows are the result of a quarterback trying to push the ball with mechanics that aren’t tight enough to deliver the ball on a line.

This 1st and 10 with 13:50 in the game is a good example. Fales and the offices is in an 11 personnel shotgun set with the ball at the 17 of from a 2×1 receiver, 11-personnel shotgun set against the Aztec’s one-deep safety over a 3-3-5 look.

San Diego State sends five men to the pocket – three from the left side as Fales drops looking to the middle. Fales sees what he wants and off the third step of his drop, he sets and delivers the ball from the right hash at the San Jose State 9 to the 48 of San Diego State – a 43-yard throw from release point to potential catch point.

However, the pass is thrown too far and one of the problems is the arc on the ball. Fales’ effort to throw the ball for distance sacrifices the low-arc needed to reach the receiver who is open by a step.

One of the problems is Fales’ feet as he delivers the ball. He’s not driving off that front foot before the ball leaves his hand. Instead, the ball is leaving as he’s still transferring his weight. Watch how his feet move with a rougher, stilted motion as the ball comes out.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZigsJdm75M&start=647&w=560&h=315]

Now compare Fales’ motion with a player like Drew Brees, a fine deep thrower and a guy of similar dimensions who got better with his velocity after leaving Purdue. My suggestion, refresh your browser each time to queue the Fales throw and Brees throw if comparing the two.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VWV_-devqQ&start=11&w=560&h=315]

Brees’ time on his front foot while delivering the ball is much longer than Fales’. Brees is driving off that foot. Fales has to learn to do this with all of his throws.

If the rookie was forced to start in the NFL today, teams would force him to make plays beyond the limitations of his range and he would look like a sub par player. However, give Fales 2-3 years to integrate this footwork into every throw, add some muscle, and gain more understanding of more complex defensive looks, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this prospect offers value to a team as a primary backup.

And if the arm strength gets a lot better, I wouldn’t be shocked if Fales knocks on the door of that NFL starter club.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – available to pre-order now. The 2014 RSP will available for download April 1. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: A Trio of Sleepers

February 19, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback, Running Back, Wide Receiver

WR Paul Richardson, RB Tim Flanders, and QB Dustin Vaughan are intriguing players without the big-top pedigree.

Futures: A Trio of Sleepers

by Matt Waldman

According to most fantasy football writers, the term “Sleeper” is dead, buried, and the wake held in its honor featured a stuffed mushroom dish with creamed spinach and Italian breadcrumbs soaked in butter. Considering that many football writers at the wake sported IV drips topped with Crisco, finger food is always underrated.

Sleepers are still alive in the lexicon of “reality football.” Not that this term is somehow more legit than fantasy football.

Why would it be? Reality football has deteriorated into a wild and wooly sub-genre of Reality TV.

Pick a channel or website and there are weekly installments of the NFL’s Dr. Phil and Dr. Laura, only most of them hide in anonymity when dishing their gossip dressed as pop-psychology. Call me when these 20-something prospects finish adolescence.

On another, there’s the salacious he-said-he-said drama between two former Dolphins. Each episode is so popular that Jerry Springer is taking a pounding in the daytime ratings. Those rubber sheets from the investigative report to Commissioner Goodell might come in handy after all.

Reality Football is a five-ring circus of top prospects, current players, media, former players-turned-media, and Twitter all competing for attention. There’s no room for players under the big top who lack the Q Score of the headlining acts.

With the possible exception of Dallas, the actual game of football isn’t played under a circus tent. Once upon a time, even the Cowboys caught some teams sleeping on developmental players like Tony Romo and Miles Austin.

Joique Bell, Marlon Brown, Alfred Morris, Kenbrell Thompkins, and Brian Hoyer are also testaments to the fact that sleepers are alive and well in the NFL. Here are three of mine for the 2014 NFL Draft. Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

The Little Things That Make Sammy Watkins A Big Deal

February 16, 2014 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

Watkins has the upside to lap the field of some fine receiver prospects when it comes to NFL potential. Photo by PDA.Photo.

The great strength of Sammy Watkins’ game is in the finer details.

If Sammy Watkins didn’t possess excellent hands and speed, he wouldn’t be a top prospect at his position. However, it’s the little things that make Watkins a special prospect.

Weeks ago, I profiled Allen Robinson’s penchant for leaving his feet to catch targets thrown at a height where he could have maintained his feet during the act of the reception. Consistent application of this detail will earn Robinson greater opportunities for yards after the catch.

Robinson is already a fine ball carrier, but even at 6’3″, 210-215 pounds, he’s better at avoiding defenders than he is running through tackles. This is based on watching Robinson at Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Central Florida, and Nebraska).

Attention to detail is an essential reason why Watkins is ahead of the rest of his draft classmates. The Clemson receiver is like a jazz musician playing in a pop band – few appreciate every nuance because the knowledge often requires hours of study or an enormous intuitive feel for the game to get beyond the environment of the performance to see everything that makes him special.

I’m sharing two plays that provide glimpses into what makes him special, but some miss because they either haven’t seen enough snaps of Watkins or they are too chained to the Clemson scheme to see the skills that transcend it.

The first is a classic case of great process, bad result. I love sharing these plays, because they underscore my belief that behavior is more reliable than the outcome.

The second is a case of great process, great result, and an uncommon play for the Clemson offense. The process also reveals skills that translate to other aspects of Watkins’ game.

Great Process, Bad Result

The play is a 12-personnel, 1×1 receiver set with Watkins as the receiver on the left inside the numbers of the flat. He’s positioned two yards behind the line of scrimmage and the cornerback has outside shade and five yards of depth.

By the way, the Ohio State corner does a fantastic job on this play because he has Watkins one-on-one with no safety help. Here’s the formation pre-snap.

The single safety is at the opposite flat, which is a huge key that Watkins is facing single coverage. Tajh Boyd recognizes this coverage and the opportunity to deliver a quick throw for Watkins to win one-on-one.

However, Boyd’s throw lacks the precision for the situation. Watkins has turned to the quarterback and squared his pads to provide a good target, but Boyd leads the receiver too far into the teeth of the oncoming defender.

Watkins doesn’t react the way I see from countless receivers that I watch in these situations where the ball is thrown above chest-level. The receiver extends his arms away from his body and attacks the ball, but he does not leave his feet.

Watkins also frames his body so his pads and hips are down field and the ball ahead of him. Screen after screen in this game, this receiver gets into this position before catching the ball.

I never see this kind of attention to detail on a screen or throw-out that is one of the simplest routes to execute for a receiver. Moreover, Watkins’ approach is extraordinarily consistent.

Despite the impending contact, Watkins stays true to his process. He understands it gives him the best chance to win the match-up and at worst, prevent a bad outcome.

Watkins’ technique places the receiver in position to make the catch, secure the ball to his sideline arm, and extend his free arm to attack the defender with good pad level and leverage despite the defender’s advantage.

There’s no way Watkins has a chance to contest this hit if not for his pre-catch attention to detail. As the contact collapses Watkins stiff arm, the receiver’s arm and pad level is like a shock absorber.

Watkins has enough balance and leverage to turn sideways through the contact. With the ball high and tight to the outside arm, the receiver withstands the corner’s attempt to rip the ball loose.

All of this sound technique is the reason Watkins is able to absorb the contact, push back and force the defender to the ground. If Watkins doesn’t collide knees with the defender, I believe he runs through the contact up the left flat.

The corner does everything right on this play to win the match-up, but Watkins’ fundamentals make it a win by the slimmest of margins. Don’t be surprised if you see Watkins win some of these plays in the NFL – and win big.

Great Process, Great Result

Watkins’ critics say that the receiver only runs screen plays and he’ll need the right scheme to thrive in the NFL the way he thrives in college football. This statement implies that all he can do well is run screen plays or zone routes.

Here’s a single coverage route – one of the prettiest examples of route running I see in college football.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWDwGTmMypk&start=148&w=560&h=315]

The initial release is patient and a straight line into the body of the defender with good pacing that remains constant throughout the route. One of the things that made Jerry Rice a great route runner was not only the fact that every route looked the same in terms of maintaining a straight line with every release, but also a consistent pace.

Varying speed can be a useful tool, but it’s an attempt to lull an opponent into a lapse of focus. Maintaining a constant speed puts the opponent in a constant state of discomfort.

This straight stem is 12-yards long and the top of the stem features a dip inside with the head turned and then a fantastic head fake outside-inside leading to a second jab-step inside and use of the shoulders that forces the corner to turn his hips. This sequence of moves are all performed without any variance in pace – difficult to do.

By the time Watkins breaks to the corner, he has left the corner in the dust. All of these qualities are performed with the same efficiency I see as a ball carrier – patience, pacing, and layers of moves.

It’s not an indicator of good route running with many receivers, but it’s behavior consistent with Watkins across all aspects of his game.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2014 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Embracing The Craft of Player Evaluation

February 16, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft

Tony Romo is a perfect Rhorsach for football fans. Photo by Football Schedule. — Tony Romo is a perfect Rorschach for football fans. Photo by Football Schedule.

Player evaluation is an imperfect endeavor. Understanding one’s limitations is a huge step towards getting better at it.

The most compelling thing about the NFL Draft is that no matter how hard it tries, it cannot escape its humanity. It’s this human element that makes player evaluation – and evaluating what good evaluation is – so difficult.

Evaluating human behavior is a craft. It’s not science. It’s not intuition. It’s not history. And it’s not life experience.

It’s all of these things layered with perspective and applied with doses of humility, pride, and appreciation of the perfection of imperfections. It’s limitations and imperfections that are the root of character.

Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice weren’t deemed big enough to carry the load. They are two of the toughest backs in football and proven bell cows.

Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Brandon Lloyd are too slow to play wide receiver if looking solely at the speed data. However, what they do to catch a football despite these limitations is like a gorgeous birthmark on a model’s face.

Frank Gore is a former physical freak-turned-mortal whose sight, decision-making, and patience make fans wonder “what could have been” if he didn’t suffer two knee injuries that took away his immortality. Tony Romo and Brett Favre have embodied the sum of human failings, but often supplied its most inspiring heights.

I joke that Romo and Favre are often the dividing line among fans who embrace humanity and fans who think we’re better off eliminating humanity and evolving into androids.

Self-loathing aside, it’s the humanity in these players’ games that shine the brightest to fans – the production despite imperfection and the feats that for a briefest moment stretch beyond limitation. Likewise, player analysis is a willingness to both embrace and stretch beyond the humanity inherent in the process.

Every human being has characteristics of their personality that, depending on the situation, will have positive or negative expression. If one looks hard enough, this is true of scouts, writers, and draftniks when they evaluate prospects.

We all have several of these traits, but there is often a few predominant traits that are easier to notice. One of mine is persistence-stubbornness.

A positive side of its expression in my work is that I’m often thorough and steadfast with my analysis. A negative side in my work appears when I’m stubborn about process to the point that I can miss the forest while examining the trees.

I am also drawn to the underdog or the troubled soul. It’s part of my personality imprint.

I’m less likely to judge players with checkered pasts. Before I developed more life experience and caution, I was more likely to give trouble a second or third chance to the detriment of my analysis.

I’m not alone. There are scouts, writers, and draftniks drawn to players that I call bright and shiny objects – players who possess eye-popping physical skills, but lack the refined play of a consistent, reliable starter.

These folks see potential and have the vision to see how it will blossom in a positive way. But they are sometimes to their detriment a slave to it the way Bill in Kill Bill had a thing for blondes.

Other people latch onto one thing about a player. It might be the overriding characteristic that makes a player successful despite flaws in his game that others nitpicked to death.

At the same time, these people are also famous for spotting a potential flaw that is not the overriding factor for success or failure and it derails their analysis. They turn into the nitpicker.

Then there are the data guys who often generate insights, who at their best, provide a fresh, clear-eyed perspective of players and the game that re-frame the questions we should be asking. At their worst, they think any process that involves data is objective while dismissing information that they cannot yet figure out how to analyze with their tools.

I’m not talking about best analytics practitioners that I know who are working behind the scenes in the NFL. These individuals are often the first to tell you that the intuitive and the “subjective” have a place in analysis. These individuals studying the film as much as they study the data.

We all want a silver bullet – an attribute, a stat, or a measurement that will override the imperfection of craft. But player analysis is a craft.

You may not like it. I may not like it. It doesn’t matter.

RSP Rorschach No.3: Cornell QB Jeff Mathews

February 11, 2014 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Thrown too early or thrown too late? See below.

Some plays are like Rorschach inkblots because there’s no definitive answer to why they unfold the way they do. This new series examines plays that have more than one viable explanation and may be too difficult to draw a single conclusion. The fun part is that you have a voice in it.

RSP Rorschach No.3: Cornell QB Jeff Mathews

This is 3rd-and-14 pass with 6:25 in the first quarter. The Cornell offense is in a 10 personnel shotgun set at the 24 with the ball at the right hash versus a 3-3-5 defensive look from Princeton. The offense faces a five-man blitz – three defenders coming from the left and two up the middle. The defensive end over right tackle is dropping to the right flat.

Princeton plays an aggressive defense that varies looks (nickel, 3-3-5, 2-4-6, and 3-4 looks) and blitz types all day. There is lots of A-gap pressure, layered blitzes to the same gap with two defenders coming in waves, and lineman dropping into coverage as slot defenders fire off the edge.

It’s the kind of pressure that forces a quarterback to play decisive football, which leads to the question about this pass attempt. Mathews drops from the shotgun looking to the middle, sets his feet, and throws the ball up the seam from the 29 to the slot-right receiver up the seam tot he end zone.

The quarterback over throws the receiver by four yards. The commentator tells the audience during the replay that Mathews was too early with his throw because of the pressure forcing the quarterback to rush the throw.

But is the commentator correct? Could Mathews have waited too long and been forced to lob the ball into a spot that could have been avoided with an earlier release?

See below.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnpFHmHy66I&start=106&w=560&h=315]

There’s no doubt that Mathews throws the ball with air under it but there’s no real arc. It looks more like the trajectory of a fade route where the quarterback expects the receiver to high-point the ball.

It’s good touch for a fade but that is not what this play calls for. While the throw being “long” is often an indication that the throw was too early, this is an intermediate-range pass.

Look at Mathews’ drop and it appears that he waits a tick late before making the decision to throw the ball. If the throws the ball in rhythm, the quarterback would have released the ball earlier and thrown the ball on a line to the inside of the receiver.

Instead, the quarterback waits a tick and lofts the ball so it clears the safety, who otherwise might not have been in range if quarterback threw the ball the moment his back foot hit the ground at the conclusion of the drop. The question is which theory do you buy?

Throw the ball earlier and with velocity on a line drive trajectory and the pass threads the needle of the secondary inside the five and the receiver trots into the end zone? Or, as the commentator noted, the pass rush forced a rushed throw and it arrived too early?

[polldaddy poll=7792661]

As always, you may comment below if you have a different take.

Reads Listens Views 2/7/2014

February 7, 2014 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

This Week’s RLV: Driving Blind, Mr. Clean, Talent On The Fringe, The Price Of Free, And Militant Frogs

Views – “Driving Blind” A Film By Brian James Griffo

[vimeo 49946741 w=500 h=281]

Brian James Griffo asked me to check out his trailer and tell everyone that proceeds from the movie (rent for $4.99/buy for $8.99) are going to research. I’ll be If you’ve done a road trip to see the country or a country that lasts more than 10 days then you know how life-changing these adventures can be. I did one 21 years ago across the U.S. in a van. It was one of the great experiences of my life.

I haven’t seen the full movie, but I just bought it based on what I’ve seen and what I gained from my road trip. Learn more here.

Listens – Brad Mehldau

[youtube=http://youtu.be/cnH27mxW0KM]