Posts tagged 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

Reads Listens Views 10/24/2013

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This looked like an overthrow, but it was a rookie mistake by the promising Johnathan Franklin. Read the Gut Check and find out why.
This looked like an overthrow, but it was a rookie mistake by the promising Johnathan Franklin. Read the Gut Check and find out why.

Thanks

If you’re new to the RSP blog, every Friday I post Reads Listens Views – items I’m consuming on the Internet. Some of it is football, a lot of it isn’t. You won’t like everything I share, but I believe you’ll like at least one thing each week. It’s also a chance for me to thank you for reading my content on this blog, at Footballguys, Football Outsiders, and (each January) The New York Times.

And most of all, I get to thank those of you who support my work here and elsewhere by purchasing The Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

For the uninitiated, the RSP is The Rookie Scouting Portfolio, my annual publication that is the most comprehensive analysis of skill position players around. I have nearly 1300 pages of quality content (just for 2013) to back that up. Learn about it here. You can download 2013’s publication ($19.95) or get past issues at half price ($9.95) at this link. I give 10 percent of each sale to Darkness to Light, a non-profit devoted to preventing sexual abuse in communities through the creation and implementation of training and awareness programs.

Evan Silva, thank you for reminding us on Twitter of this gem.

Listens

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I’ve played my share of Derek Trucks guitar solos in this weekly feature, but Susan Tedeschi performs a tasty one here.

Football Reads

  • Football Outsiders’ Film Room – Cian Fahey does a sweet job studying Ryan Tannehill and Joe Haden. I like his focus on cornerbacks, it makes me think about receivers. If Cian’s knee wasn’t as old as I am I’d like to pair what I’ve learned against what he knows with a reasonable passer targeting me. Fahey, if you dish any of that Janoris Jenkins trash my way – even in Irish slang – you’ll wish I was Steve Smith.
  • Guide to the NFL Workout Circuit – Former National Football Post writer and NFL safety Matt Bowen writes about the vicious cycle of in-season tryouts to join a team.
  • Disruption Is Production – Josh Norris and I have a mutual admiration society going. Within a week of each other we posted articles about two of the most disruptive defensive tackles in college football and why their on-field production doesn’t always appear in the box score. Good stuff if you want to get past headlines that do nothing but perpetuate shallow knowledge of the game you love.
  • Random Shots – Joe Bryant, with a little help from some great friends, writes a terrific feature on the lighter side of the NFL. Bryant has a simple, direct style that makes for great reading.
  • The Gut Check No.283: The Gut Check’s Film Room – I open the home theater for a double feature of Jarrett Boykin and Case Keenum with a short feature on Joique Bell.

Views – Mandatory Education on The War on Drugs

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Listens

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Non-Football Reads

  • Russell Brand Started a Revolution Last Night – Whether you agree or disagree with Brand, I like that he encourages people to question things we often take for granted. Most of all, I love that he doesn’t take a reporter’s agenda and format for granted and instead questions them at every turn on their modus operandi. Keep holding the mirror to their faces until they realize they’re behavior is a silly game.
  • Why I Made Blackfish –The documentary about Sea World’s practice of keeping Orcas in captivity is heartbreaking, but a must-see. Did you know there’s no human fatality by an Orca on record in the wild? Go figure.
  • Wildlife Photographer of the Year – Worth viewing some beauty in its element right about now, am I right?
  • U.S. Rivers Packed With Garbage – Silly me, to think garbage only went in our landfills and legislatures.
  • Thinking Fast And Slow – Adam Harstad is a long-time Footballguys’ Shark Pool regular and new staff writer. He recommended this book from heralded economist on cognitive bias. Adding it to my reading list.

Views – Most Popular Boys’ Names By Year Since 1960 – Gif From The Atlantic

Listens

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I like this pop group. These guys can sing, play, and jazz up something that would otherwise be pretty bland.

Futures: Arizona State DT Will Sutton

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players
Will Sutton may not be the next Geno Atkins, but his "senior year slump" is a gross mischaracterization. Photo by Ashley and Matthew Hemingway.
Will Sutton may not be the next Geno Atkins, but his “senior year slump” is a gross mischaracterization. Photo by Ashley and Matthew Hemingway.

The Arizona State defensive tackle’s story is turning into another example of where the system is focused on spotting flaws more than serious consideration of how to maximize available talent.

Futures: Arizona State DT Will Sutton

By Matt Waldman

Unusual. Not typical. Uncommon. Extraordinary.

These are all meanings of “exceptional”.

The best talent evaluators create opportunities within their process to find the exceptional. They understand what business writer George Anders means when he says that it’s important to keep channels openbecause talent does not always fit the typical requirements:

When hiring talent, many companies generally search for candidates with narrow, time-tested backgrounds. Hunting strictly in those familiar zones doesn’t find everybody, however. When selectors apply such rules too tightly, lots of fascinating candidates on the fringe get overlooked. There’s no mechanism for considering the 100-to-1 long shot, let alone the 1,000-to-1 candidate. On a one at-a-time basis, it’s easy to say that such candidates aren’t worth the time it would take to assess them. Yet ignoring all of these outsiders can mean squandering access to a vast amount of talent.

Good organizations, according to Anders, know how to balance a conventional process for hiring talent while taking more progressive attitudes about the initial search:

  • Not restricting where they seek talent. Being open to alternate sources limits how often they have to pay a “conformity tax” by doing what everyone else does. Think Victor Cruz at UMass. The fact the Giants were willing to give Cruz a tryout was more than one could say about many teams.
  • Suspending disbelief about a candidate in the early stages of evaluation. Seeing potential value instead of writing off a candidate before evaluating him. Think of the several NFL teams, scouts, and media-hired evaluators whose grades of Russell Wilson were low because they’re processes are about spotting flaws more than spotting skill or opportunities for skills to thrive. Of the many scouts who did see Wilson’s talent, a majority were driven by the preconceived expectation that their bosses would punish them for championing a player they knew their superiors would dismiss without an open evaluation of the quarterback’s ability.
  • Realizing that other industries cultivate desirable skills that can create a viable pool of talent. Think Antonio Gates, Jimmy Graham, and Tony Gonzalez – three basketball players in college and were encouraged to makefootball their professional goal.

Gates, Graham, and Gonzalez aren’t just examples of progressive scouts and front office types. They each heeded an inner belief that they could play at the highest level. This is a part of being an exceptional talent.

LaRoi Glover was an exceptional talent. The former Saint’s resume is that of a future Hall of Famer: Six consecutive trips to the Pro Bowl (2000-2005), a four-time All-Pro, and a member of the NFL’s 2000s All-Decade Team. Headlining those accomplishments was a 2000 season where Glover led the NFL in sacks and earned NFC Defensive Player of the Year –as a defensive tackle.

Few NFL teams had anywhere close to this level of regard for Glover’s potential. A two-time All-WAC defender from San Diego State, Glover entered the league as a 6’2”, 290-pound rookie – a generous listing of his physical dimensions. A baseline weight for NFL defensive tackles – even the speedier, agile three-techniques in a 4-3 defense like Warren Sapp – is 300 pounds.

The Oakland Raiders selected Glover in the fifth round of the 1996 NFL Draft. The team used the rookie in two games during the month of November and at season’s end, allocated Glover to the Barcelona Dragons of the World League. Glover earned all-league honors, but it wasn’t enough for the Raiders to give him a second look. Oakland cut Glover on August 24 of the 1997 preseason.

The Saints signed the defensive tackle the following day and they weren’t as dismissive with Glover’s potential. They gave Glover a chance to play based on what they saw and not what their coaches were guessing. The next three seasons, the young defender demonstrated great promise – earning a total of 23 sacks.

In 2000, new head coach Jim Haslett moved Glover to the three-technique, paired the explosive tackle with space eater Norman Hand, and the rest is history.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders. 

Reads Listens Views: 10/18/2013

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Case Keenum reminds Wade Phillips of Tony Romo. Photo by Football Schedule.
Case Keenum reminds Wade Phillips of Tony Romo. Photo by Football Schedule.
This week’s RLVs includes a sample report on former Houston Cougars’ QB Case Keenum, who will be starting for the Texans this weekend. The rest of RLV? Your normal fare of stuff on my reading, listening, and viewing list, which of course is anything but normal. 

RSP Sample: Texans’ New Starting QB Case Keenum

[youtube=http://youtu.be/LZ8F04L1Mys]

Keenum was my No.14 QB in the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Here is what I wrote about the former Houston Cougar who Wade Phillips believe has the potential to achieve career heights similar to Tony Romo. At the end of this profile is a sample report on Keenum.

14. Case Keenum, Houston (6-0, 208) – Keenum has a quick, over the top release. He’s an anticipation thrower and not as likely to gun the ball into tight spaces from difficult angles or distances. He’s an effective down field thrower of the football because of this anticipation and his touch. He places good arc on throws and has a knack for dropping the ball over his receiver’s shoulder in tight coverage.

Keenum can throw the ball more than 40 yards down field, but he didn’t demonstrate the ability to drive the ball with power on deeper routes. When he doesn’t throw the ball with good anticipation, his high arcing passes can get him into trouble on deeper routes because he brings coverage back into the play and creates unnecessary jump-ball situations. I think the extent of his range is probably 45 yards.

I’m also uncertain about his ability to drive the ball on intermediate routes, which will be important for him to make plays against defenses that force him from the pocket or paint him into a corner. He sees the field well enough to find receivers in a reasonably crowded pocket and he can throw the ball off his back foot and from different angles. He throws well moving to his right.

However, Keenum was frequently too aggressive on plays where he should have either thrown the ball away, tried to elude pressure, or tuck the ball and run. He had a few throws that he put up for grabs. It was as if his answer every time he was pressured was to throw the ball at least 15 yards down field and usually 40.

His play action game needs work and he was under center only once in the game I scored. The big questions are whether he can execute a pro style game from center, make the requisite power throws, and learn to make better decisions with the football under pressure. I don’t think the NFL is going to give him a chance, but of the quarterbacks I studied, he flashes enough skill to earn a spot late on this list and at least a camp invite.

Sample Play-by-Play Report of Case Keenum

Views – Now This is a Bird’s Eye View!

[youtube=http://youtu.be/-7IVjCQ26pE]

Views – What Would Bob Harris Do?

Yep, that’s the shark move. Boy, I kill myself sometimes . . .

Football Reads

Views – Arkansas RB: “We’re gonna need a bigger boat”

[youtube=http://youtu.be/reROq81-Vm8]

Great call from The Big Lead on the (unfortunate) uncommon sense that Jadeveon Clowney’s draft stock hasn’t moved a millimeter. He just pushed three-fifths of the Razorbacks’ offensive line into the backfield on a run play, Only major off-field issues would keep me from drafting him in the top-three overall in 2014.

Views – Funny/True: A Lobbyist And a Senator Walk Into a Restaurant

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Hy9_fsL6uS8]

Non-Football Reads

Listens – Ornette Coleman (Light Stretching for the MInd/Soul)

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Thanks for reading and stay tuned tomorrow for my take on Arizona State defensive tackle Will Sutton in my Futures column at Football Outsiders.

Reads Listens Views 10/11/13

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Listens I

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Football Reads

Listens II

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Non-Football Reads

Listens III 

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Views/Commentary – Pro Football Players By Place of Birth (Chart by Atlantic Cities)

This map is part of an article about Malcolm Gladwell’s assessment that football will become “ghettoized” and middle class families will discourage their kids from playing the sport.  I’m stunned about the fuss made over this assertion; just follow the trail of money and it’s clear this is already happening. Academic critics of college football have long pointed to its exploitative social hierarchy before investigative reporters delved into the subject. University of Georgia professor Billy Hawkins published a book about it in 2000, “The New Plantation: The Internal Colonization of Black Student Athletes“. You can read highlights here.

Another trail of money is the funds the NFL has spent to shift its public relations strategy from the gladiatorial days of selling NFL Films’ Greatest Hits to heavy rotation of a kinder-gentler-safer Heads-Up PR campaign aimed towards parents of young children who are thinking twice about allowing their kids to play the sport.  And of course, the most obvious money trail is the legal expense to head a court case off at the pass in order to slow the decline of the game.

Slow decline might be the best way to describe of the future of the NFL. The league got into bed with prime time television in 1970 when Monday Night Football was born and this was really the beginning of the NFL’s ascent into the mass media consciousness. If 1970 was the birth of the NFL’s Golden Age, its childhood and adolescence were the 80s and 90s. Cable television (ESPN), music videos (MTV – Chicago Bears), VHS and DVD (NFL Films) all made the game more marketable.

It means the past 15 years have arguably been the NFL in its prime: record revenues, no labor issues impacting the regular season, the huge television contracts, coverage of the NFL Draft and Combine, and even a 24/7 broadcast network run by the league. Throw in the NFL smartly commoditizing digital technology – streaming coach’s film, quick-editing of cutups, fantasy sports, and adopting media aggregation and social media to enhance coverage and education of the game – and this decade has truly been the zenith of the league’s popularity.

But with what we know about the physical toll of the game and the challenges to create technology to prevent it, I’m skeptical the game will ever be as popular as it is this decade. I hope the game evolves and remains a compelling physical, strategic, and spiritual challenge as it increases its safety, but I’m not counting on the game increasing its popularity.

I’m counting on Malcolm Gladwell being more right than wrong.

You see that dot northeast of Atlanta? That’s my hometown of Athens, Georgia,  a city renown for the Bulldogs and its music scene. Walk through the gorgeous red-brick, Georgian architecture of the first chartered university in the U.S. and then across the street to the shops and sidewalk tables of restaurants and cafes downtown and the city sells the dream well. Throw in the fact that the hospital is top-notch and the vet school, law school, and business school are pretty good, and it’s a great place for people who have the means to live somewhat segregated from reality.

But there’s a lot more to Athens that these people don’t have to see. According to the U.S. Census Bureau,  Athens had the third-highest wealth gap in the United States. There as much or more public housing per square mile in the Classic City than anywhere in the southeastern United States. One analysis claims Athens is only safer than 10 percent of the cities in the United States. Police departments from neighboring counties have often been accused of “dumping” their homeless to town.

I’ve lived in Athens for 19 of the past 20 years. They hide the poverty well from the tourists and alumni, but its here.  It’s worse now that the yuppies and educators who supported the public schools in the 1980s fled to the neighboring Oconee county where they could enjoy the service economy of Athens, but not have to make the effort to maintain a quality school system after the blue collar jobs left and their kids graduated. The graduation rate for the city high schools is 55 percent.  Rather than promote birth control in the schools, the town preferred to promote abstinence and build a daycare in one of its schools.

Football is a religion here. I know you folks in the Big 10 and Big 12 think you understand, but trust me when I tell you it’s a different level of intensity. I’m not talking about on the field, but the culture of the alumni and fans. Combine that with a gap between rich and poor, black and white, and an SEC institution with one of the largest and most successful athletic departments in the country and I’m not the least bit shocked where football has been heading and why the NFL is trying to turn the tide.

There’s a lot I love about the town, but I’m not going to pretend it’s something that it’s not. If you’re poor and matriculate through this public school system, there’s a good chance that big-time sports is a lottery ticket out of a cycle of poverty that this local economy cannot fix.  Football is a way out. It’s one of the only ways out.

Just look at the map and you’ll see why Gladwell makes a compelling point. It’s easier to watch people you don’t have to truly care about wreck themselves. Especially when you can’t hide from the risks any longer. Uncomfortable things to consider if you’re a fan, but if you really want to claim you care about the game it’s time to take an unflinching look at its problems.

I don’t know what to do about it, but communication and awareness is the first step.

Thanks – Check out my Football Outsiders Futures column on Saturday. I’m profiling one of my favorite players in this 2014 NFL Draft class. Also, learn why I have no problem incorporate intuition into the evaluation process. 

Boiler Room: Florida State RB James Wilder

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Running Back
Running backs are like motorcyclists, eventually they'll lay it down and have trouble walking away from it. Photo by Kyn_Chung.
Running backs are like motorcyclists, eventually they’ll lay it down and have trouble walking away from it. Photo by Kyn_Chung.

I remember James Wilder, Sr.  A 6’3″, 225-pound wrecking ball where he had two seasons in Tampa Bay with a combined 772 carries for 2844 yards and 23 touchdowns, Wilder is the best running back in Buccaneers history if you ask me.  One of those years, Wilder had 407 carries, 1544 yards rushing, 13 rushing touchdowns and 85 receptions for 685 yards for an 8.1 yards per catch average.

In case you didn’t do the math, that’s 492 touches for 2229 yards from scrimmage – that’s the 16th best yards from scrimmage total in the history of the NFL and the most touches by a player large margin:

NFL Single-Season Touches Leaders – Courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com

Rank Player (age), + – HOFer, Bold – Active Touch Year Teams
1. James Wilder (26) 492 1984 TAM
2. Larry Johnson (27) 457 2006 KAN
3. Eddie George (27) 453 2000 TEN
4. LaDainian Tomlinson (23) 451 2002 SDG
5. Edgerrin James (22) 450 2000 IND
6. Marcus Allen+ (25) 447 1985 RAI
7. Ricky Williams (26) 442 2003 MIA
8. Eric Dickerson+ (23) 441 1983 RAM
9. Emmitt Smith+ (26) 439 1995 DAL
10. Jamal Anderson (26) 437 1998 ATL
11. Steven Jackson (23) 436 2006 STL
12. Emmitt Smith+ (23) 432 1992 DAL
13. Edgerrin James (21) 431 1999 IND
14. Eric Dickerson+ (26) 430 1986 RAM
Ricky Williams (25) 430 2002 MIA
Gerald Riggs (25) 430 1985 ATL
17. Walter Payton+ (30) 426 1984 CHI
Barry Foster (24) 426 1992 PIT
19. Eric Dickerson+ (28) 424 1988 IND
20. Deuce McAllister (25) 420 2003 NOR

In addition to these season marks, Wilder once toted the ball a record 48 times in a single game (and 47 in another contest a year later – good for second on the all-time list). We’re talking about a tough football player in an era of running the football that we’re only given reminders of nowadays.

I think this is important to share, because if the Matthews family has a potential genetic predisposition for athletic longevity in a punishing sport; the Long family breeds linemen; the Manning family farms quarterbacks; and the Winslow family produces tight ends, then 6’1″, 229-pound James Wilder, Jr. has a chance to be a damn good pro running back. Wilder runs a lot like his dad, but there’s an added degree of recklessness that could be a double-edged sword for the young man with an old-school style and it leaves me conflicted about his future.

A series I started last spring at the RSP blog is The Boiler Room. One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play. Yet, if I need a play to add to the highlight reel that will help a team make a decision where to slot Wilder, Jr. on its board, this is my nomination – not because it’s the most impressive play as much as it’s a telling indication of the player in terms of that double-edged sword. This is a run from a 20 personnel shotgun formation inside the Wake Forest red zone with 6:48 in the first half. The next 24 seconds, which includes a replay is a display of strength, agility, recklessness, and flexibility that leaves me ambivalent about Wilder, Jr.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULXz1le2tlU&?start=44w=560&h=315]

This hurdle of the defender is different from what you’ve seen from the likes of Brian Leonard, Knowshown Moreno, and LeGarrette Blount in recent years. Those three backs were known for these plays in the second and third levels of the defense. The hurdling these three backs demonstrated as collegians were prettier plays.

However, this hurdle from Wilder comes within two steps of turning down hill through the hole! While the Russian and Chinese judges would mark him down on form,  they’d begrudgingly own him top marks on technical difficulty. This is a nine-yard gain with six coming after the hurdle.

What impresses me most on this play is what we see on the replay. Notice how flexible Wilder is in his legs and hips to rotate his lower body this dramatically. Then there’s the strength to maintain balance at this awkward of a landing point. This is a balls-out, reckless, and fearless run where one can see the old-school influence of watching his father.

However like his father – and most old-school runners – Wilder has admitted to playing with numbness in his shoulder after laying the wood on defenders. He has that “slap some dirt on it” mentality that  teammates and coaches love as long as he can go out there and produce. Shoulder injuries and ball carrying go together like shrimp and grits, so I wouldn’t be alarmed about Wilder’s admission.

In the NFL and the NFL media’s hyper-analytic draft environment, medical reports might be a driver in Wilder’s draft stock. Just like Eddie Lacy’s stock fell at least two rounds further than anticipated at least due in part to a toe injury, Wilder’s shoulder may earn some extra scrutiny – especially aggravating the wound in September that hindered him throughout 2012.

Watch the play again and think about his disregard for his body. For a long, lanky, and punishing back, I can see some reasons for concern. At the same time, I love watching him at his best. Here’s a taste of Wilder in the second and third level of the Clemson defense – yes, this is highlight No.2, but I’m a sucker for punishing, determined runners.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULXz1le2tlU&?start=345w=560&h=315]

Again, note the balance and strength of his legs to take a hit that moves his body so his legs plant at an awkward position and he stays upright. While impressive, I just can’t shake the feeling that there’s too great of a tendency for awkward footing and landings that won’t end well. My younger brother, who is a licensed pilot will tell you than any landing you can walk away from is a good landing. However, I’m reminded more of the adage among motorcyclists: It’s not if you’ll lay the bike down, but when.

Running backs are in this respect like stunt bikers. Eventually they’re going to lay it down in a way that they’ll have trouble walking away from the crash. I love Wilder’s battering ram determination, flexibility, and balance. Especially his flexibility. Here’s highlight No.3.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULXz1le2tlU&?start=563w=560&h=315]

That’s a Reggie Bush-like extension without a long, downhill start and doing it while carrying an extra 20 pounds. I smile every time I watch Wilder as a lead blocker making diving plays to upend defenders for his quarterback or backfield teammates. He’s a tough football player. However, I don’t get the same feeling of reckless longevity when I watch Wilder the way I do when I watch Adrian Peterson or Walter Payton or even Wilder, Sr.

I hope I’m wrong.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures at Football Outsiders: Texas A&M OT Jake Matthews

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft
What does the Matthews family have in common with the Marsalis family? Generational excellence at a craft. Photo by mll.
What does the Matthews family have in common with the Marsalis family? Generational excellence at a craft. Photo by mll.

 

Futures: Texas A&M OT Jake Matthews

By Matt Waldman

I heard a great story about Lawrence Taylor this week from my friend Sigmund Bloom. Thanks to NFL Films, the Hall of Fame linebacker and “trash talk” go together like K-Tel and “greatest hits” – complete with a low-budget, late-night commercial featuring a scrolling list of titles for your listening pleasure:

 

“Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, stick – you mine. You mine, baby!”

“C’mon baby, you can’t pussy-foot it up in there, you gotta run it.”

“Homeboy, you can’t play that stuff in here; you’re gonna have to go outside.”

“Let’s go out there like a bunch of crazed dogs and have some fun!”

“Son, you gotta do better than this…”

Remember, this is Lawrence Taylor/K-Tel. If you want to pay good money for trash talk, order from the Shannon Sharpe Smack Soundtrack. At the end of the day, the talk means little if a player can’t walk it, and Taylor could walk it in his sleep. Well, with the exception of the week a rookie tackle let Taylor tie himself into a mental knot.

It was early in the game. Taylor stood opposite the rookie tackle, wasting no time dishing it to the offensive lineman.

“Rookie, I’m going to beat you to the left,” drawls Taylor, standing over what he had to think was fresh fish. Without missing a beat, the tackle shot back with a question.

“Which left? Your left or my left?”

Taylor, caught off-guard by the serious tone and the nature of the question, paused for a split-second –- just long enough to think about it -– as the center snapped the ball. That hesitation was all it took for the first-year tackle to dispatch of Taylor on the play. Sure, Taylor probably got the best of this rookie several times in that game, but the interaction underscores the point that offensive linemen are often some of the most intelligent players on the field.

One of the best of these quick-thinking, quick-footed behemoths in college football today is Texas A&M tackle Jake Matthews. Yes, he’s from the Matthews family that includes Grandpa Clay Sr., Uncle Clay Jr., Father Bruce, and Cousin Clay III. We’re talking over 50 years of NFL experience -– 18 of them Pro Bowl seasons. It’s like a functional, football version of the Jacksons –- down to Casey Matthews as its LaToya.

Jokes aside, the fact that Casey even earned an NFL opportunity speaks to the talent of a football family whose best musical parallel is the Marsalis clan. If there’s a compelling argument for teams to mention “bloodlines” when filing a scouting report, the Matthews and Long families would be Exhibits A and B of a lengthier list of NFL bloodlines than you may imagine.

It may seem like an imposing standard for Jake Matthews to follow his father Bruce in to the NFL –- and it’s probably something we’ll never learn until his career is over –- but examining the Aggie lineman’s potential solely on the basis of physical talent, technical skill, and conceptual acumen for the game, the younger

Matthews has a strong shot of doing something his dad did 30 years ago: earning a top-10 selection in the NFL Draft.

Although Matthews hasn’t done enough as a left tackle to provide quality footage at this spot, there is one particular opponent he faced last year as a right tackle who is a good test for anyone on the left side, college or NFL. That would be Barkevious Mingo, who, like Lawrence Taylor, displays rare athleticism and relentlessness off the edge as an outside linebacker. Even as a right tackle last year, Matthews’ matchup with Mingo at LSU and the athletes at Alabama are performances that any NFL prospect at left tackle would be proud to have in his portfolio.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Blocking: Alabama WR Kevin Norwood

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
Orange with pepper? Might as well watch a wide receiver in college football block. Right? Photo by Robert Tewart.
Orange with pepper? Might as well watch a wide receiver in college football block. Right? Photo by Robert Tewart.

To the casual college football viewer, wide receivers and blocking go together like orange slices with pepper or french fries dipped in a Frosty. Both seem odd, but they work. A receiver who does his best to make the position and the task fit together Alabama’s Kevin Norwood.

I can think of dozens of receivers at the college level that I’ve seen who are better blockers. However, sometimes there’s a play worth showing because it’s instructive. This run block in the Texas A&M game is a good example of gauging the correct angle. And football at its best is the ability to anticipate and address the angles of the opposition.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/38aI1BhEztU]

This is a great angle by Norwood. Watching the play at full speed you might think he overran his target. But if Norwood overran the safety, how could he make the correct decision to turn the defender to the sideline without seeing the hole that his running back chose?

As with any play call, Norwood knows the general direction of this run and understands that his job is to seal the defender to the outside. The Crimson Tide receiver takes an angle to the safety’s inside shoulder to force the defender on an outside path. If the defender beats Norwood’s block to the outside, there’s a greater chance he’ll overrun the path to the ball carrier.

If the defender doesn’t get outside, Norwood has an easier task of turning the safety to the sideline and driving the defender backwards. This is a good example of leverage by body position in the run game.

By no means is this a perfect block. Norwood is overextended as he makes the turn. His pads and head are down and too far ahead of his hips. At this point, he has lost control of his form and his body. The safety should have been able to grab Norwood by the pads and rip the receiver outside and then take an inside path to the ball carrier. Instead, the safety tries to throw Norwood inside towards the ball carrier.

While inventive, the safety also has to improve his skills at shedding blocks because this decision is the difference between a third and short and a first down.

As for those of you wondering about Norwood as an NFL prospect, I’ll have more about him in the coming months. I will tell you that he has the athleticism and baseline skills against tight coverage to compete for a roster spot. The key for Norwood will be consistency in the passing game and effort like this in the run game. Compared to the pack of receivers draft analysts will lump Norwood, the Alabama senior is ahead of the game in this respect.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: UGA QB Aaron Murray

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback
Quarterbacks can be divided into task-oriented managers and creative managers. Find out which one fits best for Aaron Murray. Photo by Wade Rackley.
Quarterbacks can be divided into task-oriented managers and creative managers. Find out which one fits best for Aaron Murray. Photo by Wade Rackley.

Futures: UGA QB Aaron Murray

By Matt Waldman

The most glaring example of the difference between a good college player and a good NFL player is at the quarterback position. It’s also the position where draftniks and football evaluators have one of the loosest working definitions for the term “developmental prospect.” I’ve seen this term used to describe players judged as undrafted free agents who would be best served looking for work with the Canadian or Arena League just as often as I’ve seen it as a label for a second or third-round prospect.

But it was only a few years ago that the NFL draft had nearly twice the number of rounds, which explains why a third-round player and an undrafted free agent can have the same label. Considering that NFL scouting is still rooted in mid-20th century practices (I’m not talking about some teams’ uses of iPads and databases to track and store information, but the actual concepts and techniques they use to assess players), it shouldn’t be a surprise.

Georgia’s Aaron Murray is a quarterback I’ve seen projected by my colleagues at CBS as a third-round prospect and top-100 player, but whose game matches my working definition of a developmental player. The Bulldog’s four-year starter exhibits sound fundamentals, base accuracy in the passing game, and enough awareness to lead a winning football team in one of the best conferences in college football.

However, Murray also epitomizes the skills gap between big-time college passers and the pro quarterbacks fighting for remaining rosters spots in the NFL. This week’s Futures profiles Murray’s comfort zone and where his inner demons lurk. If the Georgia quarterback can expand his ability to translate what he’s learning in the classroom to what he does on the field, he could have a career as a capable backup. However, I think the third-round grade is an optimistic assessment.

A good way to explain this is a quick look at Murray’s former competitor for the starting job when they were freshmen: Zach Mettenberger, who played at a local high school no more than 20 minutes from the UGA campus. Mettenberger was the prototypical pocket passer in terms of size and arm strength and I thought he was the better prospect. After he was arrested on alcohol, disorderly conduct, and obstruction of justice charges during spring break of his freshman year, it didn’t matter – he was booted from the team and Murray earned the job.

I haven’t studied Mettenberger in depth since then, but I’m not the least bit shocked that Cam Cameron’s system is bringing out the best in the LSU quarterback and reviving his draft stock. Mettenberger has the physical skills and prototypical size most NFL teams covet and I wouldn’t be surprised if Mettenberger’s classification as a developmental player also earns the accompanying tag of “future starter”.

Murray’s developmental label might warrant starter consideration, but I think the fit is more team-specific for the 6-foot-1, 208-pound quarterback. Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers’ skills are proof that quarterbacks between 5-foot-10 and 6-foot-2 can succeed as NFL starters, but they are currently exceptions to the rule. I think Murray’s upside is more along the spectrum of Alex Smith and Jeff Garcia as the best-case scenarios with Bruce Gradkowski as a more realistic aspiration: quarterbacks who perform best in the classic version of the West Coast Offense predicated on short passing, rhythm, and movement.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Boiler Room: RB Todd Gurley

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Running Back
I make player comparisons by style of players along a spectrum of talent. The mid-range of that talent spectrum for Georgia RB Todd Gurley would be Cedric Benson. Photo by Dusty Werner.
I make player comparisons by style of players along a spectrum of talent. The mid-range of that talent spectrum for Georgia RB Todd Gurley would be Cedric Benson. The upper range? Larry Johnson.  Photo by Dusty Werner.

Todd Gurley’s style reminds me of Penn State star Larry Johnson.  For those of you who remember Johnson for his exploits with the Chiefs than the headlines he made off the field, it’s weighty praise. What they have in common is the agility of a 210-pound runner in the powerful frame of  225-230 lb. back.

A series I started last spring at the RSP blog is The Boiler Room. One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play. Yet, if I need a play to add to the highlight reel that will help a team make a decision where to slot Todd Gurley on its board, this is my nomination despite the fact there’s an impressive display of long speed on a 75-yard touchdown earlier in this Clemson game.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/wIOlc8M91os]

There are several things about this run that underscore Gurley’s physical talent and conceptual skill.

The first is ball security. Gurley is a primarily a power runner and to do work between the tackles at a high volume a power runner better hold onto the football. You’re going to see throughout this unusual run that he keeps the ball high and tight to his body. There are points during this run where his elbow comes loose from his side, but considering what he has to do during this 12-yard touchdown run his ball security is praiseworthy.

Gurley has the ball tucked to his left side on a run to the left. Even when he has stop short of his path outside the initial block and make a sharp bounce to the inside the ball doesn’t swing loose from his chest. This is one of the most common errors of ball security I see with running backs. They can execute incredible displays of agility and balance, but the ball-carrying arm flies loose of the body and the passing traffic may not tackle the ball carrier, but they can force a fumble.

A good stiff arm or straight-arm isn’t just for attacking defenders or avoiding a wrap-up. Gurley uses his free arm to work around bodies in space. He places his arm on the back of the lineman to stabilize his change of direction and prevent a collision with his teammate.

One of the more impressive parts of this run is Gurley’s feet. For a big back with long speed, he also has some excellent short area quickness. Watch him stutter his steps to slow his path to the outside, keep his balance after establishing contact with the blocker, and then plant with both feet to bounce the run inside. This is a great on-field example of balance and agility.

As Gurley exits the hole, the ball remains high to his chest. While the elbow could be tighter, the runner’s ball security is good enough to avoid the rip attempt by the Clemson defender. If you look close enough you can actually see Gurley squeezing the ball tighter as No.11’s arm reaches towards the ball.

From the point Gurley declares a path at the line of scrimmage until he reaches the end zone, his pad level is excellent. I also like how high his knees are as he approaches the defender he’s about to stiff arm. Note that he makes first contact with the oncoming defender and at the same time squeezes the ball high and tight. Once the defender makes contact with Gurley’s body, the Georgia runner begins to drive through it with even lower pad level.

Whether it’s a sharp cut, a change of direction, a stiff arm, or running through a defender’s wrap, Gurley’s ball security is high and tight. For a back with his strength and home run-hitting skill, it would be easy for him to run with greater abandon. The fact that he doesn’t will endear him to coaches if he can continue to display this good habit in the NFL.

These characteristics don’t guarantee that Gurley will be a star as a professional. Cedric Benson had excellent agility and footwork and true power. He had years with good production, but he would never be considered an upper echelon runner.  Everyone loves Trent Richardson’s potential and while he has displayed that he is one of the more exciting young talents at the position, but he hasn’t proven he’s one of the better backs in the NFL.

What this play demonstrates is that Gurley has the skills to earn a grade within the realm of Benson and Richardson’s draft scores. The difference is that the value of running back has changed enough that there’s a 50-50 chance Gurley doesn’t find a team until the second round. You can ask draftniks more about that possibility. I’m not trying to be a junior GM from my home office – I have too many players to study for playing dress-up.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece. 

You can begin placing orders for the 2015 RSP in January. 

Futures: UCLA OLB Anthony Barr

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players
Anthony Barr has a first-round grade from at least one scouting department I know. What will it take for him to crack the top-10? Photo by Neon Tommy.
Anthony Barr has a first-round grade from at least one scouting department I know. What will it take for him to crack the top-10? Photo by Neon Tommy.

Futures: UCLA OLB Anthony Barr

by Matt Waldman

Which one is not like the others? Aldon Smith. Dion Jordan. Anthony Barr. If you ask Nebraska Offensive Line Coach John Garrison orNFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah, they’ll tell you Barr is stylistically similar to both players. While Jeremiah polled five NFL Execs with a question specifically framed to link Jordan and Barr, there are people in the NFL who see the outside linebacker from UCLA as a different style of player than the Dolphins’ rookie.

A current NFL employee who has worked with several teams in the player-personnel scouting arena doesn’t see the Barr-Jordan comparison as an accurate one.

“Barr is a bit of an enigma at this point, but a very gifted athlete. I like the versatility he shows. It’s hard to think of him as anything but a strong first-round prospect. At the same time he’s a tough read; definitely not cut and dried as to where he’ll fit best in the NFL. He was very raw last year and isn’t the same athlete as Dion Jordan,” he says, explaining that the 6-foot-3 Barr lacks the length and height of the 6-foot-6 Jordan. “I don’t see the same ceiling that Jordan has as a rusher, but Barr is more versatile and very capable of playing [outside linebacker] in the 3-4 at a high level. As far as body types and skill-sets, they’re pretty different. I think Barr is closer to a raw Clay Matthews or Brian Orakpo type.”

If a college player earns a first-round grade from NFL scouts based on junior film it usually means there’s a strong case he could be a top-10 pick. This is the case for Barr, who made the switch from fullback to linebacker last year and had an eye-catching rookie season at the position:

  • 82 tackles
  • 21 tackles for loss
  • 14 sacks
  • 4 forced fumbles
  • 4 hurries
  • 5 passes defensed

These are good numbers for a player who still has a lot to learn about the techniques and concepts of playing his new position. One of the big reasons is speed. This is what Smith, Jordan, and Barr have in common.

It’s also the reason why this NFL employee doesn’t agree with Executive No.5 in Jeremiah’s August poll about Barr-Jordan that states, “Barr by far. He’s much stronger, and he’s not a one-trick pony. Jordan relies solely on speed.”