Posts tagged 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

Reads Listens Views: Friday the 13th of 2013

If Brady truly is "bad WR-proof" he'll be a fine value even with MacGregor's long-term deal.  Photo by Jeffrey Beall.
Brady wasn’t “bad WR-proof” this week, but real football fans should be patient. Fantasy owners? Listen to my buddy Sigmund Bloom next time, will ya?  Photo by Jeffrey Beall.

Commentary: Thursday Night’s Game

I have several thoughts to share about the Jets-Pats game:

Turn on something electronic – a TV, a computer, a phone, or for you super-rich folks, a pair of spectacles – and you’ll that the Thursday Night match-up was a dog. A wet, smelly dog shaking itself all over your living room furniture.

I loved this game for exactly this reason. Football might be pure business for front offices and media, but let’s not let their perspective cloud our enjoyment of the game. I spend way too much time dealing with the technique and strategy of the game. So do my colleagues. We need to remember that football – and life – is also a game of emotion.

How teams handle the ups and downs of mistakes, obstacles, and setbacks like bad calls and injuries is often just as important as the cold, calculated execution of strategy. We celebrate Adrian Peterson’s amazing comeback from an ACL tear by talking about how freakish of an athlete he is and the advancements in surgical technology, but we don’t acknowledge the resilience of a great football player who was able to harness the fear, the doubt, and the anger into a 2012 performance that was one of the most emotionally inspiring seasons I’ve seen on a football field.

The Patriots offense also underscores the precarious balance teams must have when it comes to patience and action in a sport with a short season. New England’s passing game is no longer the juggernaut, but it doesn’t mean that these rookie wide receivers won’t develop. Kenbrell Thompkins still had some route issues, but he also forced a pass interference penalty and came inches from making a diving catch for a touchdown if not for a throw that Tom Brady could have done a better job with. Aaron Dobson had issues with his hands technique at Marshall, but this was his first NFL game.

Yet, there isn’t a lot of time for the Patriots’ receivers to get it together and help the team succeed this season unless Rob Gronkowski can return soon and take some of the pressure off them. Otherwise the learning curve will remain steep. As former NFL Scout Dan Shonka mentioned last night, Chad Johnson is still trying the learn the Patriots offense. Keep that in mind before writing off any rookie receiver long-term.

Then there’s Geno Smith. I liked what I saw. He did a lot of good things to put his teammates into position to make winning plays. He made mistakes, but what did you really expect from him?

Smith did better than I expected with this receiving corps. The offensive line continues to show more than it did last year, too. While I get what Chris Wesseling was saying in his Friday morning “What We Learned” the Geno Smith is not ready, I think the truth is that Smith is not ready to be a fantasy football starter or a commodity that writers at NFL.com can talk about on the level of an established starter.

Smith is ready to learn on the job. He’s ready to compete and keep his team in the game. He’s ready to do what every other young quarterback has to do. The difference is the talent level he has around him to do it.

Is he as good as Luck or Wilson? No. Was what he did this week that far away from Ryan Tannehill’s performances last year? Not really. However, the mistakes will be more magnified because he’s on the team that, if Dallas is America’s team, then Jets are America’s punching bag. There’s another element at play, but I don’t have time today to provide a nuanced argument about it.

Unfortunately, I’m sure it will continue to manifest enough to write about it later.

Listens – It’s “Elvin Jones” but I can’t change my playlist on YouTube.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bEE4K6c3xE&feature=share&list=PLX1Nx57UJgZl53eNHohk-mVzsSnylKbJu]

Thanks

New follower? Every Friday, I post links from around the web that I’m reading. You might not like all of the links, but you’ll enjoy something here. It’s also to thank you for following me, reading this blog, and buying the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. It’s the most comprehensive analysis of skill players available. And if all the scouting service reports look like the ones I’ve seen , it’s also by far the most comprehensive analysis player-for-player that you’ll find anywhere. Which frankly, is a little shocking to me, but based on how much emphasis is spent on travel and interviewing players and coaches over studying film, I’m beginning to come to grips with it.

Download the RSP for $19.95 or past issues (2006-2012) for $9.95 and 10 percent of every sale goes to Darkness To Light, an organization dedicated to preventing sexual abuse and training individuals and organizations on the dynamics involved with this criminal behavior that is an epidemic in our world.

Views I – Brady Hoke 

Courtesy of Bob Henry via an LSU fan.
Courtesy of Bob Henry via an LSU fan.

Football Reads

Views II – My Wife Told Me To Take Notes . . .

[youtube=http://youtu.be/sN91agpSTf8]

I told her that her five personalities need to take notes, especially the one in the corner of the classroom fabricating a shiv from a metal desk leg. Was that wrong of me to say? I know, Joe Bryant, flowers. Plenty of flowers.

Non Football Reads

Futures: Clemson WR Sammy Watkins

Watkins has the upside to lap the field of some fine receiver prospects when it comes to NFL potential. Photo by PDA.Photo.
Watkins has the upside to lap the field of some fine receiver prospects when it comes to NFL potential. Photo by PDA.Photo.

It seems ridiculous to label a wide receiver with an 82-catch, 1219-yard, 12-touchdown debut as “unsung,” but consider the company Sammy Watkins kept his freshman year. The Clemson wide receiver is one of only four players in the history of college football to earn First Team All-America honors as a true freshman. The other three were Herschel Walker, Marshall Faulk, and Adrian Peterson.

A semester later, Watkins was arrested for possession of a controlled substance. This led to a two-game suspension and he missed two other contests with injuries. The result was an underwhelming sophomore effort of 57 catches, 708 yards, and 3 touchdowns. It’s what happens when a first-year college receiver ditches Walker, Faulk, and Peterson for the company of Vyvanse, Adderall, and Mary Jane.

By all means laud the talents of Marqise Lee, Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Donte Moncrief and Jordan Mathews. They’ve all earned it. But Watkins at his best laps this field of potent contenders for the crown of top receiver in college football. (I purposely left one receiver off this list, because I’ll be writing about him another week.)

Watkins has done the best job of these players at integrating his physical, conceptual, and technical skill sets at the position at this stage of his career. And as polished as he is, there is room for him to get better. If Watkins were a creation of real-life Dr. Frankenstein, the mad scientist would have spliced the genetic material of Percy Harvin’s rugged, explosive athleticism and Brandon Lloyd’s route savvy and mind-bending body control without the migraines or mood swings.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Flashes: WR Allen Hurns, Miami

Receptions verus contact heighten my attention to a player's potential. Photo of Victor Cruz by Kat Vitulano
Receptions verus contact heighten my attention to a player’s potential. Photo of Victor Cruz by Kat Vitulano

Long-time college and NFL coach Dave Wannestedt told an ESPN crew that he awarded Dion Lewis a full ride to Pitt after watching just one play of the Browns running back’s high school tape. Sounds foolish, but I won’t lie: There are some plays impressive enough that you realize you’ve seen much of what you need to see. These are rare moments and other than Adrian Peterson, I can’t remember the last time I experienced that feeling about a player after witnessing one play.

While no magic pill, there is a type of play for wide receivers that is guaranteed to heighten my interest in a player. I call it the Money Catch. Give me a receiver who can make these consistently and I’m less concerned about his height, weight, 40-time, bench press, or stats. A receiver who demonstrates this skill may not become an NFL starter, but there are few quality NFL starters who lack this ability.

University of Miami wide receiver Allen Hurns flashes this skill. The 6’3″, 195-pound prospect also provides a good illustration of a technique flaw I’ve heard many pro receivers discuss: Leaving one’s feet to catch a target that doesn’t require it. I still have more to watch of Hurns’ game, but here are three clear examples of good technique and a habit that needs curbing.

Money Catch

[youtube=http://youtu.be/JT5gkKPpWiw]

This is a 3rd-and-16 pass from a 1×2 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun set from a 3-3-5 look. Quarterback Stephen Morris’ makes a fine throw for Hurns to have an opportunity to make the reception. Still, it’s the wide receiver on this pitch and catch who does the dirty work. Hurns finds the opening in the zone under one safety and inside another on this post route after getting an inside release on the corner in shallow zone.

One of the tougher aspects of a catch with impending contact is when a player gets “ping-ponged” or hit in succession in different directions so one hit ricochets him into another from the opposite direction. Hurns does a fine job of protecting the football on this target.

If I were to nitpick, the hand position to catch the football could be a little better. Ideal hand position would be for Hurns’ index fingers angled upward but point towards each other rather than at 12 o’clock. The hands should look a spider web. This technique reduces the likelihood of the ball sliding through the fingers.

Overall, a strong play.

Leaving Feet – Part I

[youtube=http://youtu.be/yjAR_4CS_6Y]

This target is a 3rd-and-7 pass for a 10-yard gain from the UM 31 with 2:38 in the half. Hurns is the single receiver from a 11 personnel, 1×2 shotgun set. He is lined outside the numbers in the right flat with two safeties split towards the hashes.

The CB on Hurns is playing seven yards off and bails early, leaving a cushion for Hurns to break his route at the first down marker. He makes the catch with his hands, but if you look closely, just as his hands make contact with the ball he leaves his feet. He’s already trying to get into position to run.

The idea is a good one, but this is where the habit of leaping to catch a ball when not required can create a lapse of concentration. Hurns fails to secure the ball with the initial touch and fights the ball into his body during his turn. While not conclusive, I believe his adjustment disorients him just enough that he takes the wrong path down field towards three defenders rather than running up the sideline.

I like that Hurns gains three yards after the catch and bounces off contact with a good finish, but if he catches the ball with his feet on the ground, turns and takes an outside path towards the cornerback in a one-on-one situation, I think he gains a lot more than three yards.

Leaving Feet – Part II

[youtube=http://youtu.be/3-lAJwFkXSQ]

This is a 2nd and goal from the six with 6:11 in the third quarter from another three-receiver, 11 personnel shotgun. Hurns runs the slant and drops the ball after an initial juggle of the target. Watch the two replays after the first airing and you’ll see where Hurns takes a long step to gather his body for a jump. Because the pass is a little late and to the back shoulder, Hurns cannot make a strong adjustment to the ball after this elongated step forces him to leave his feet.

The throw could have been better, but Hurns’ habit of going airborne – even if it’s not a jump with any height – not only diminishes Hurns’ ability to focus on looking the ball into his hands, but also creates situations where he commits to a direction before the target arrives.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Flashes: QB Chase Rettig, Boston College

Chase Rettig isn't Kurt Warner, but was Kurt Warner, "Kurt Warner" as a first-year starter as a senior at Northern Iowa. Photo by Photogeek21
Chase Rettig isn’t Kurt Warner, but was Kurt Warner, “Kurt Warner” as a first-year starter as a senior at Northern Iowa? Photo by Photogeek21

Playing quarterback at a high level requires a pairing of skill sets that at times seem paradoxical. Intense preparation and freewheeling improvisational skill. Finesse and grit. Control and abandon. An elephantine memory and selective amnesia.

It’s why it’s the toughest position to evaluate. Kurt Warner sat on the bench at Northern Iowa for three years. The fourth year, he was the Gateway Conference’s Offensive Player of the Year.  We know the rest of the story. Johnny Unitas was cut by the Pittsburgh Steelers. Brett Favre might have drunk himself into a stupor if he stayed in Atlanta where then-Falcons’ head coach Jerry Glanville promised the only way Favre would get onto the field was a plane crash.

I wouldn’t bet my pocket change that Boston College senior Chase Rettig becomes a quality starter in the NFL. There are way too many factors to consider to draw a conclusion at this point. Yet there are qualities to his game that I like a lot that give him potential as a pocket passer. And yes, there are still pocket passers thriving in the NFL.

Rettig has played since his freshman year at Boston College and has the dubious distinction of working with five offensive coordinators in three years. Browns journeyman backup Jason Campbell can relate – and not just from his days with the Redskins. He had multiple offensive systems during his Auburn career.

Most don’t project Chase Rettig as a draft-worthy quarterback heading into the 2013 college season. However, Rettig plays well enough to earn consideration in early May even if his team continues its underwhelming play.

Arm Strength

[youtube=http://youtu.be/iPECd046PSU]

This is a 3rd-and-10 pass to his receiver, Alex Amidon on a deep out. Rettig faces Miami’s defense of freshmen and sophomores at the BC 32 versus a defense with two safeties high. This appears to be a Cover 2 look, especially as we see the pass arrive between two defenders. Rettig begins the play with a three-step drop, takes a hitch step to buy time, and then climbs the pocket away from the pressure coming from the edges.

The movement  has precision and Rettig maintains enough balance and position to deliver this deep out from the BC 25 to Amidon at the UM 47 just outside the numbers of the right flat and between the safety and linebacker. The fact he has to climb the pocket and still hits the receiver on time with good placement at helmet level is another indication that Rettig has fundamentally sound technique and a strong enough arm for NFL teams to work with.

Precision and Finesse

[youtube=http://youtu.be/jdbobFeTsNs]

Rettig’s execution on this 1st-and-10 pass with 4:30 in the half at the UM 23 from a 1×2 receiver, 11 personnel set is a fine demonstration of precision on a few levels. He faces two safeties deep and a 4-3 front with man coverage on the outside. Rettig extends his arm on the play fake to the RB before finishing a five step drop and this forces the Miami linebackers to attend to the prospect of the run. Rettig finishes his drop and delivers a nice seam route behind the linebacker and safety after his back foot hits the ground.

Although the ball goes through the tight end’s arms, I thought it was a good display of touch and placement. The tight end was late to get his hands up and the receiver wasn’t precise with his hand placement. Target a starting tight end – or several backups – in the NFL and this is a touchdown.

Eye Discipline and Footwork

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Ou2u_5JIomw]

This six-yard completion with 12:42 in the third quarter doesn’t seem like much of a play, but there are some nice things happening here. Rettig’s receiver Amidon is the outside twin receiver outside the numbers. Rettig executes a play-action fake to the running back, hitches twice, and finds his receiver breaking back to the passer on the hook.

Going a little deeper, this throw is placed in a tight zone in a window optimal for the receiver. Rettig once again displays nice footwork to climb the pocket away from outside pressure and keep his eyes down field. Moreover, Rettig sets this up by beginning his drop with a long enough look to the middle of the field, which holds the linebackers in place and opens this zone for Amidon to work underneath.

Under Pressure

[youtube=http://youtu.be/5-uMbIslftA]

Here’s another small gain, but a nice play on a 3rd-and-four. Rettig’s target is Amidon, the receiver at the top of the screen. UM plays two safeties deep and rushes four. As you can see thus far, when Rettig has time to get that back foot into the ground he flashes arm strength and sometimes hyper-accuracy.

On this play, Rettig doesn’t get that time. Miami earns inside penetration off each tackle. Rettig looks to the middle, slides to the left, and makes a nice throw off his back foot with enough velocity to hit the receiver crossing from outside-inside into decent coverage. The receiver gets the first down and Rettig takes a hit after making the throw.

While the true test of a passer with physical gifts is to deliver a ball on-target and off-balance in the middle zone, this short-zone throw is still notable.

Awareness and Feel

[youtube=http://youtu.be/v8DXxz8q0nY]

Although this play doesn’t end well for the Eagles, Rettig placed the team in great position for a big-play on this 1st-and-10 with 12:32 in the game. Miami plays a single-high safety and decides to begin sending more than four men into the pocket. This is the first of several five-man pressure packages that come in the fourth quarter and they fail to sack Rettig once.

The play was designed for Rettig to find one of three receivers flooding the various zones on the left side of the field after a play-action boot in that direction. However, the safety forces the action early with his blitz. Rettig has a good feel for the location of his running back working the right flat on a bullet route as the backside receiver and is agile enough to pivot right and make an accurate throw with the defender in his face for a big gain that ends with a turnover.

While there’s nothing but good shown here, there are some things to note by nature of their absence.  Rettig never threw the ball away in this game and considering he is known for holding onto the ball too long and taking sacks, there was nothing in this game to dispel this behavior. Rettig also has a high touchdown-to-interception total. The BC quarterback tossed an interception in this game where he didn’t read the underneath coverage on a slant and he attempted a number of tight-window throws.

I’m more concerned about the mix of aggression and discipline with interceptions than holding onto the ball too long. If Rettig can actually play in the same offensive system for a few years, this tendency could diminish over time. However, high interceptions rates also a result of a team playing from behind and forcing a quarterback to take risks. I saw several of these attempts at the end of this game where the quarterback might have had smarter choices, but not the time left in the contest to act with care.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures at Football Outsiders: Venric Mark, Offensive Weapon?

Is this the year McCluster gets a shot to maximize his skill set? Photo by Tennessee Journalist Wade Rackley.
Is this the year McCluster gets a shot to maximize his skill set? If so, it might help Northwestern runner-receiver-return specialist Venric Mark’s draft stock . Photo by Tennessee Journalist Wade Rackley.

Venric Mark: Offensive Weapon?

by Matt Waldman

A couple of months ago, an employee from an NFL player-personnel department asked for preliminary input on a project he’s undertaking. He asked me to relay things I watch when I study offensive skill players that he could quantify. One of the things I shared pertains to running backs.

What many quality pros at the position have in common is how they handle backfield penetration. Every runner looks effective when he can generate momentum towards an open crease, however it requires a strong integration of multiple skill sets to foil early defensive penetration.

These skills include anticipating the penetration during the exchange with the quarterback, avoiding the defense after the exchange, and the runner redirecting his path to minimize a potential loss after the defense disrupts the intent of the offensive play. I see this happen most when a defense is dominating an offensive line and limiting the runner’s box score production.

Some the most memorable evaluations I have performed on prospects have been runners during games where their teams were overmatched:

  • Marshall’s Ahmad Bradshaw versus a Top-10 worthy Tennessee defense.
  • Tulane’s Matt Forte against LSU’s top-ranked defense.
  • LSU’s Joseph Addai facing a top-ranked Auburn defense.

All three players performed poorly according to the box score data in these games, but what I saw them do on the field was impressive. Season-long production may demonstrate that the player is contributing to the team, but it’s one of the most overrated aspects of evaluating a prospect.

I find it more important to examine player performance independent from the quality of his production. I prefer to judge his skill on a series of behaviors and processes within the physical and conceptual scope of his position and his role in the game. This is more illuminating of a player’s potential than a box score.

However, there is an added layer of complexity that comes into play when a prospect has the talent to produce in the NFL, but he plays a position in college football where his physical dimensions don’t match the NFL’s traditional prototype.

Underscoring this challenge is the NFL embracing the latest offensive concepts that are successful in the college game. The more a team spreads the field, opts for read-option plays, and uses a multiple scheme, the more likely the team will be scouting players who were successful in these schemes. The problem is that, by traditional NFL standards, those players aren’t big enough to ride the pro rollercoaster.

When this happens, we often see these players earn vague position titles from coaches like utility back or offensive weapon. There are exceptions, but the vaguer the position title, the less likely the player will have a defined role and impact in the offense. It’s why this integration of skills to anticipate-avoid-redirect may not be as enlightening to scouts when they watch a smaller runner back.

These players are also a test of an organization’s overall vision. A personnel department can scout a player and determine he’s a worthwhile prospect, but if the organization isn’t aligned in its thinking, the coaching staff can miscast its young talent into an offensive design that doesn’t suit his skills.

Nothing like shopping for groceries to provide the chef all the ingredients for a fantastic Italian meal only to see him use these goods for a Mexican dinner.

Darren SprolesDexter McCluster, and Tavon Austin all fit that player type. McCluster was more Sproles-like in style when he joined the Chiefs, but the team had its share of running back talent. They converted the Ole Miss star into a full-time wide receiver and he has yet to make a real impact. Place McCluster in a system similar to the Saints and I think he’d be a standout.

Even as new schemes create a need for players without a positional prototype, “offensive weapons” without a traditional position have been around for decades. Two players that come to mind –- and there are several before them -– are Warrick Dunn and Eric Metcalf.

Dunn’s physical dimensions are in the same range as the McCluster-Sproles-Austin trio, but he proved he could do the dirty work between the tackles as a true running back. In contrast, Metcalf was a bigger player than all four of these prospects, but Bill Belichick’s use of Metcalf at running back in Cleveland yielded mixed results. Some of this was due to an old-fashioned scheme; the rest was Metcalf’s style.

Metcalf’s production made him a mediocre running back in Cleveland, but he was a good receiver in the short zone of the field and a fine return specialist. When the Falcons acquired Metcalf, they converted him to a full-time receiver in a run-and-shoot offense. Metcalf had 104 catches, 1180 yards, and eight scores in his first season.

Scheme made all the difference. Pair Metcalf with Belichick in New England and I suspect the Patriots’ head coach would have used Metcalf more like Wes Welker or what I expect the team to do with a healthy Shane Vereen this year.

A college player who reminds me of Eric Metcalf is Venric Mark. The Northwestern running back has flashed a similar type of skill to anticipate-avoid-redirect when facing backfield penetration but at 5-foot-8 and somewhere between 175-185 pounds, scouts will wonder which positional template Mark fits into -– if he fits into one at all.

He’s a player whose draft stock will not just be determined by his skill and athleticism, but by the performance of players like McCluster and Austin. If both of these young NFL talents falter beyond their special teams prowess, Mark will have to demonstrate that he’s a Dunn-esque exception to the rule as a runner or display the receiving prowess in the intermediate zone to earn a definitive position title and role.

While Mark has a knack for minimizing losses, his display of this particular integrated skill set won’t likely hold the same value compared to the likes of Bradshaw, Forte, and Addai because of his current size. Depending on his physical growth, level of skill, and an NFL teams’ perception of his potential, Mark could either be viewed as a pure running back or labeled an “offensive weapon.”

Mark’s performance in last year’s opener at Syracuse provides a good showcase for his versatility, explosiveness, and vision — but it also raises more questions about his future than definitive answers.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Dri Archer: Offensive Weapon/Caffeine Substitute

Dri Archer is DeAnthony Thomas without the hype. Photo by Lindsayjf91.
Dri Archer is DeAnthony Thomas without the hype. Photo by Lindsayjf91.

With an alarm clock that goes off at 4:30 am, dawn comes around fast in my household. It doesn’t help matters that I’m not a coffee drinker. But if I could watch more prospects with Dri Archer’s big-play ability, I’d have a great 5:00 am caffeine substitute.

The Kent State offensive weapon averaged 9 yards per carry (yes carry, not touch) on his 150 attempts in 2012. He was also the only player in the FBS to earn over 1300 yards rushing and catch over 500 yards of passes last year. There’s a good possibility that Black Mamba has nothing on Archer but more surrounding talent in a better offensive system.

The Go Daddy Bowl in Mobile Alabama might be one of Archer’s worst statistical outings – 99 total yards and a touchdown – but in this game Archer had one of the best non-scoring runs I saw last year. At 5’8″, 164 pounds, Archer is an inch shorter and 10 pounds lighter than Tavon Austin. Regardless of what anyone says, Austin will be a test case for smaller hybrid players. If Austin succeeds right away, Archer and DeAnthony Thomas could see their draft stock rise and we begin to hear analysts talk about skill in “pound-for-pound” terms.

If Austin’s game translates, here is a coming attraction of what Archer might bring to a pro stadium near you.

Short Area Handling + Long Speed = Instant Offense

Here’s a jet sweep in the first half of the Go Daddy Bowl where Archer gains 44 yards on one of the best individual displays of speed and agility I saw in 2012. This is a 1st and 10 at the Kent State 34 from a 1×2 receiver, 11 personnel set. Archer is the single receiver on the strong side of the formation and motions towards the quarterback, taking the jet sweep as the strong side guard and running back pulls to the weak side edge. Here’s the play and below it, my thoughts on how it unfolds.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_ZfDeYl5lA?start=66&w=560&h=315]

Archer sets up his blocks with a fantastic cut inside the running back, who has to contend with an edge defender penetrating seven yards deep into the backfield. It’s not just the deep penetration early in the play that makes the ball carrier’s adjustment so impressive, it’s the fact that he has to dip inside the running back and away from the quarterback.

Avoiding one obstacle this early in a play is enough to foil most runners, but I’ve seen enough quarterback-runner collisions in my day to believe that what Archer does here is that 1 out of 10 scenario that worked in his favor. Archer then makes a second dip inside the pulling guard as he gets just outside the hash to reach the line of scrimmage.

These two cuts not only prevent a loss, but open the field for a huge gain up the hash and flat. He beats the backside defender with his acceleration is in the second level. Eight yards later, he dips outside the safety with a lightning-quick change of direction at top speed as he crosses the first down marker.

Archer beats the defensive back around the corner and reaches the 50 (16 yards into his 44-yard gain) with another secondary defender five yards down field with an angle on the runner. Archer reaches the 45, takes two steps and dips inside the corner, using his outside arm to ward off the defender.

This is a strong example of how a stiff arm can have value as either an expression of leverage or power.  In Archer’s case it’s a simple tap of the flat-footed defensive back’s shoulder as he’s executing a swift cut to get behind three lineman working up field at the 40 and the stiff arm sends the defender to the ground.

Archer crosses behind these linemen at the 40, cuts across to the left hash at the 35, and makes a sharp cut inside the safety at the 30. If he doesn’t have to run into his wide receiver to make the cut he probably continues across the field and scores. However, the combination of his cut to avoid the corner and the flash of his teammate behind him forces Archer to cut towards traffic where there are five defenders within a five-yard radius.

As he reaches the 25 Archer is wrapped and it ends one of the best runs I’ve seen all year.

Again, I’ll recap why I loved this run and how it might give us a clue to what could make him a successful NFL prospect as an offensive/special teams weapon:

  • Archer has a feel for anticipating and avoiding penetration.
  • The ball carrier’s quickness and change of direction isn’t predicated on stop-start moves that don’t work as well in the NFL; he bends runs and accelerates through cuts, which coupled with his anticipation makes it even more difficult for backside pursuit to get easy plays when penetration alters the runner’s path.
  • Archer has a feel for setting up blocks and despite his electronically timed 4.28-speed, he has the patience to work behind his blockers.
  • Kent State’s big-play weapon plays with good pad level, keeps his legs moving, and understands the value of using a stiff arm to ward off contact as opposed to an instrument of punishment.

If not Austin, Why Not DeSean Jackson?

The Eagles receiver is 6’0″, 178 pounds and has shown he’s a capable, impact player as an NFL starter split from the formation. Archer has the fundamental skills that teams can build on when it comes to receiving: He catches the ball with his hands away from his body, and he doesn’t let impending contact dissuade him from attacking the football or break his concentration.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARPF1KIiiZ8?start=185&w=560&h=315]

I also like that there is some evidence of Jackson using his hands and feet to work free of a potential jam from Dolphins draft pick Don Jones on this play.

This 18-yard gain is Archer’s final catch of the game –  2nd and 10 at the Arkansas State 45 with 0:57 in the half from a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel shotgun set. Archer is the slot man on the strong side at the right hash with a safety playing 15 yards off the hash and Jones as the nickel back playing  two yards off the line of scrimmage to Archer’s inside.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_ZfDeYl5lA?start=155frameborder=&w=560&h=315]

A second safety is in the middle of the field about eight yards off the line of scrimmage but Archer and the quarterback do a good job of reading him crowd the line of scrimmage as the pre-snap phase ends. It this safety that gives the quarterback and receiver an opening to exploit.

Archer does a fine job of using his hands to avoid Jones’ jam as he slants across the field to the opposite hash, catching the ball 12 yards to the opposite hash with his hands.

I haven’t seen enough from Archer to give a serious comparison to Austin or Jackson beyond his athleticism and open-field skill. In these respects, Archer fits within this spectrum of athlete. However, as much as I appreciate what Archer does from the backfield I can’t help but see him more as a niche player than an every-down threat unless he’s drafted as a receiver.

There’s more I have to watch before I can deliver a more definitive analysis. Still, Archer is a player who can wake up defenses and fans in a hurry and it makes him worth watching when Kent State takes the field in September.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

McFadden-Murray Disciple: RB Charles Sims – The Film

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Charles Sims is a disciple of the McFadden-Murray school of running back. Today I’m going to show you why.

If I were an unabashed opportunist, I’d claim that Darren McFadden’s disappointing career validated my pre-draft concerns about the Raiders back. But I’m not about being right for the wrong reasons. I still believe I missed on vital parts of McFadden’s game – aspects that make him a viable NFL talent. Recognizing the error of my ways helped me make a stronger assessment of Demarco Murray.

While not identical, McFadden and Murray in the same school of running back style. Soon-to-be-former Houston running back Charles Sims reminds me of these two runners. I have more to see before I can compare his athleticism to these two NFL starters, but it’s good enough for Sims to follow suit.

This 2012 contest against UAB is a good illustration of what makes Sims a good prospect as well as the lingering concerns that make staying in school a wise choice for 2013.

Sims’ Running Style

At 6’1″, 213 pounds, Sims is a taller back. It’s these dimensions and his gait that make him a similar type of runner as McFadden and Murray.

McFadden’s ability to bend runs at high speeds was something I downplayed in my pre-draft assessment. So were his suddenness and aggression in a gap scheme.  Although I think Murray is a good zone runner with skill to change direction with sharper cuts, Murray and McFadden both tend to “bend runs” rather than make sharp cuts.

There is also a similarity in their pad level although I think Murray has always been more consistent with his. After seeing McFadden illustrate his style could work, it helped me see that Murray’s gait would work just fine in the NFL. I didn’t worry about his balance the way some of my peers did.

When I watch Sims, I see a blend of both players. All three players are versatile, three-down options with  big-play ability. While they are nightmares for defenses if they get their pads square and a head of steam, their styles limit some of  their creativity at the line of scrimmage compared to runners like Maurice Jones Drew, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, or even Ahmad Bradshaw.

But that’s the beauty of the position; there is not just one successful style.

Speed and Acceleration

The game I’m using to illustrate Sims’ skill is a 29-touch 171-yard performance against UAB. Despite the impressive box score, I’m often more fond of seeing plays where the player in question encounters difficulty. It’s why I don’t shy away from poor box score performances if the touch-count is high enough.

Sims’ first carry is a good example of  the tough sledding he had early in the contest: A two-yard gain from an uptempo play on 2nd and 3 with 12:34 in the first quarter. Houston runs an outside zone to the right and the blocking scheme fails.

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The backside blocks fail to stop the pursuit and the right tackle is not fast enough to contain the edge defender. As Sims reaches the right hash, it becomes a footrace with the edge defender penetrating two yards into the backfield untouched. Because of the cornerback and linebacker free behind the edge defender, there’s no room for a cutback.

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There are five defenders in this picture with an angle on Sims and only one lineman on his feet. Even that lineman has been beat. Yet Sims still manages to outrun the defensive end , turn the corner, and gain two yards.

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This play should have been a loss if not for Sims’ speed, which earns the Cougars a manageable 3rd-and-one.

Like McFadden and Murray, Sims is a dangerous player in space because of his acceleration and it doesn’t take much green grass for him to turn on the turbo boosters. Here is an eight-yard gain on a 2nd-and-eight swing-screen from a 3×1 receiver, 10 personnel shotgun with 6:30 in the first half.

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Sims flanks the trips side of the QB. The play is a quick-developing outside screen pass with two wide receivers blocking in the flat as the middle trips receiver motions across the formation as misdirection to fool the defense into taking  steps away from the actual flow of the play.

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Sims swings to the flat, catches the ball over his  inside shoulder with his hands and does a good job of tucking under his outside arm as he makes a  fast, down-hill cut about three yards behind the line of scrimmage.

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Sims accelerates well and splits the defensive back in the slot getting ahead of the defensive end working down the line of scrimmage. These are two strong angles by defenders and the Cougars runner manages to beat them both.

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Although the end wraps Sims from behind, the burst is good enough for the back to earn eight yards and the first down.

Sims’ acceleration can catch opponents off guard. This 36-yard streak up the right sideline with 4:35 in the half is a great example. The play is a 2nd-and-10 pass at the UAB 41 with Sims beginning the play flanking the quarterback to the opposite side of a quads set.

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Sims motions from the backfield to the right side where he is the single receiver and draws a cornerback playing single coverage. At the snap, Sims demonstrates good footwork to dip inside-out and earns strong separation on the corner by the time he’s 15 yards down field.

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There’s even a nice use of his hands to swipe past the corner to get outside without a jam.

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The runner makes the grab at the 15, turning back to the football and waiting on it just long enough to give the defender time to recover. The beaten corner wraps Sims at the 10 and drags the runner to the ground inside the 5. A better throw and this is an easy touchdown.

Good Ball Security Form, But Execution Needs Improvement

Sims typically carries the ball high and tight, but he’s experiencing lapses of concentration when it comes to his ball security at various stages of runs. Here is a 2nd-and-10 run from the Houston 25 with 6:20 in the first quarter. The play begins in a 3×1 receiver, 10 personnel pistol versus two safeties deep and a four-man front.

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This is an inside zone play with Sims taking the ball towards the left guard and center who are double-teaming the left defensive tackle. Sims takes a strong approach towards the outside shoulder of the left guard. As he reaches the left hash he cuts back to the inside shoulder of the center.

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This press and cut forces the weak side linebacker to move a step wider of the left guard and sets up the block. Sims then hits the crease inside the center at the line of scrimmage, bursts up the middle, and earns five yards.

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This weak side linebacker spins away from the guard and pursues Sims as the Houston runner dips outside the oncoming safety six yards past the line of scrimmage. The defender reaches Sims a yard later, wraps the runner high, and spins the back to the ground as the backside pursuit punches the ball free.

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Sims initially has the ball high to his chest, but it’s never tight enough to his body. The spin and contact exacerbates the looseness of his elbow from his body. Upon contact from the defender, the ball slips free and turns a nine-yard gain into a turnover.

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While Sims’ ball security is decent for much of the run, his pad level is high enough for the linebacker to come backside and get his arm into the runner’s chest. Lower pad level prevents this type of exposure to the ball.

We’ll see instances where Sims’ pad level is lower when he finishes runs, but his height is a  critical factor with his lapses with ball security. There are plays where Sims demonstrates a more conscious effort to lower his pads, but his overall running style is unlikely to change. It means the best ways for him to improve his ball security will be to get stronger and maintain concentration on squeezing the ball throughout the play.

Two touches later – a 2nd and 5 with 4:16 in the first quarter – Sims almost loses the ball again at the UAB 7.   It was a common occurrence for the defense to earn penetration into the backfield early in this game and disrupt the flow of the running game. On this play, the middle linebacker and defensive end converge on Sims a yard deep in the backfield.

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I like that Sims hits the crease hard and drags the end a yard after bouncing off the contact of the linebacker. He does a good job of keeping his feet moving and even demonstrates some body lean. However, the UAB defender rips at the ball and Sims has to make a juggling attempt to secure it with his left arm while falling to the ground.

The pad level is again an issue. The blue arrow is Sim’s actual pad level, but the ideal pad level is closer to the orange arrow. It’s clear to see how much Sims exposes the ball with his pads high. As he approaches the defense his pad level never changes.

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Setting Up Defenders

I like that Sims adjusts to what defenders are doing in the game. UAB was successful getting early penetration into the backfield and converging on Sims for minimal gains. The Houston running back does a good job of turning this advantage against his opponents on a nine-yard gain on a 1st and 10 run with 5:31 in the half.

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He did an excellent job pressing to the left side to bait he penetration up the middle and then spin inside the defender to reach the line of scrimmage.

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The spin and burst from Sims opens a strong lane and I especially like the pad level that Sims display as he’s midway through the crease.

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Note the pad level below. This is what Sims has to demonstrate earlier in runs.

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Sims’ pads don’t have to be this low at the beginning his runs, but this play is an illustration that his pad level issues area about two things: a high running style due his height and the lack of bend in his hips and knee and inconsistency of effort to correct it.  Sims’s pad level can get away from him early in runs if he doesn’t make a conscious effort early in the play.

Promising Pass Protector

Here is an excellent cut block on a corner blitz from the left side of the formation on 2nd and 10 with 5:46 in the half.

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Sims crosses the formation from a 2×2 receiver, 10 personnel shotgun set and takes out the slot corner with an excellent block across the body of the cornerback.

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The result is an 11-yard gain to the right flat for a first down . Note the way Sims works across the body of the defender and cuts high enough at the waist to force the defender to crumple to the ground at the point of the collision.

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Run Bender With Cutting Ability

On the following play, Sims gains six yards on 3rd-and-three from the UAB 24 with 12:55 in the half from a 30 personnel 1×1 receiver pistol with a diamond look. They motion the left fullback to the right and then run a play where Sims follows the two lead blockers right and cuts back to the left on this outside zone play.

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Sims does a nice job spotting the cutback lane, planting and changing direction with burst to beat the backside defenders through the crease to reach the line of scrimmage.

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The burst from this cut is also impressive. Check out the space he generates 3-4 steps after the cut. Three defenders that were ahead of Sims are now in the rear view mirror.

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Sims runs through a wrap to his leg a couple of yards down field and dips further to the backside to avoid the safety just enough to run through a wrap to his leg at the first down marker. He then drags two defenders hitting him from behind for another three yards. When he gets downhill he’s tough to tackle.

If Sims makes the unlikely decision to enter the 2013 NFL Supplemental Draft, I think he is worth a second or third-round pick. Depending on the team fit, he’d fall in a tier that separates Johnathan Franklin and Montee Ball. Perhaps even with Mike Gillislee if the fit isn’t optimal.

Since Sims is likely to transfer to a college program, I think the experience could increase his stock, which should increase his odds to contribute early in the NFL. If Sims remains a college athlete, keep an eye on his speed – both the long sprints and the short area burst. It’s what I’ll be watching closely to determine where he fits on the McFadden-Murray spectrum.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.