Posts tagged 2014 RSP

UCF QB Blake Bortles

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback
Photo by Bram_app via Flickr.
Photo by Bram_app via Flickr.

QB Blake Bortles is a tall glass with water at the halfway mark, but is it half-full or half-empty?

Last year, I broached the topic of comparing a quarterback prospect – E.J. Manuel – to a half a glass of water. Some saw the Bills quarterback as half-full, others half-empty.

Blake Bortles is also one of those “glasses of water” in this year’s 2014 quarterback class. The 6-3, 23o-lb. quarterback has the physical skills of an higher-functioning NFL starter and he flashes the feel and conceptual talent to develop into one.

The Central Florida Knight’s junior season has excited the media and divided the scouts. Is he a top prospect because of what he is and what he could become or is he a developmental project with few guarantees? Where and when Bortles goes in April nobody knows. Since I don’t make round projection a priority in my analysis of talent, I have only a passing interest.

However, I do care about talent, potential, and team fit. Like Manuel, I view Bortles as a player with lessons to learn, but “unlearning” a lot of bad habits isn’t one of them. He’d fit best on a team with a staff that sports a track record of success developing quarterbacks. It would be even better if he sat behind a veteran sold on aiding Bortles’ long-term development.

If the Central Florida quarterback lands in this type of situation, he has shown enough feel for the game that he can develop into a capable NFL starter. He has the upside to lead a team to the playoffs and carry that team in the fourth quarter of games. Yet, if his development becomes a case of mostly self-directed study, Bortles could create knots in his game that become more difficult to untie later.

What’s compelling about Bortles is his athleticism, a feel for managing the chaos of the pocket,  flashes of pinpoint accuracy, and budding conceptual skill at manipulating defenses. Bortles most prominent struggles occur in three areas: complex coverage schemes common to the NFL, executing accurate throws outside the hash, and making consistent and mature decisions with regard to placement of targets.

I’ve seen a comparison or two between Bortles and Jake Locker. I’m not sold it’s the right stylistic choice, but I haven’t arrived at one I like yet. Physically they are similar athletes, but there are notable differences.

Locker often threw bad passes with good mechanics and footwork. It was the aspect of his game that concerned scouts.

Bortles often throws good passes with mediocre footwork. Locker had a running back mentality far more often than Bortles and the UCF quarterback has a better feel for the pocket that should help him develop into good NFL passer with the right team environment.

I have more to study of Bortles, but based on his performance against South Carolina – a defense filled with NFL-caliber athletes that incorporates coverage schemes that Bortles will encounter in the NFL – I believe Bortles has a better feel for the game as a quarterback than Locker even if he still has much to learn.

When examining Bortles’ footwork, I see a quarterback who may not be as experienced as his fellow prospect Derek Carr, but Bortles often appears more patient and poised with his mindset. If I were to draft a quarterback from this class who has the potential to remain calm during the chaos, Bortles would be on my short list.

Accuracy

Bortles delivers in the short game with the accuracy and placement on the move of a basketball point guard. He’s capable of making plays under duress. Here is a 2nd-and-5 play with 1:57 in the first quarter from a 1×2 receiver, 11-personnel set with Bortles working from center at the Central Florida 6 versus South Carolina’s four-man front, its corners tight to the ends, and its safeties 10 yards deep.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYd29xlmc04&start=109&w=560&h=315]

At the snap, Bortles gives a quick jab of a play fake towards the back heading to the right. As the quarterback turns left he’s face to face with the right defensive end in the end zone. Bortles reacts fast and throws a jump pass to the tight end on the drag route while taking a hit to the chest.

The ball arrives on time to the tight end, hitting the receiver in stride two yards behind the line of scrimmage. The throw gives the receiver room to turn outside the right hash with the safety only a half a yard behind. The placement is the difference between a completion for a loss and room for the tight end to break the safety’s tackle and get the first down.

This is a risky type of decision that could have resulted in mayhem and it’s the type of choice that some scouts and personnel men will dislike. However it’s also a display of athleticism, accuracy, and a willingness to take punishment to win a play.

Bortles also executes these skills well in the screen game and a screen game is a good fit for an athletic (but not game-breaking) runner who can draw a defense to him. Brees and Brett Favre are examples of quarterbacks with excellent screen games.

Where Bortles’ accuracy falters in the short and intermediate game is a specific set of throws outside the hash or from one end of the hash to the other. This 1st and 10 at the UCF 50 early in the second quarter is a good example.

The offense is in a 1×2 receiver 11 personnel pistol versus South Carolina’s nickel look with two safeties deep. The “setup” on this play is the single receiver on the left side motioning across the formation to the right – it’s the eye candy for the defense so Bortles can make a deeper throw to the same side.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYd29xlmc04&start=145&w=560&h=315]

At the snap, the receiver swings to the right flat and Bortles stares down this route with his feet pointed towards his shallow receiver. After baiting the shallow zone into the short look, Bortles turns down field and delivers the ball from the 44 of the Knights to the Gamecocks’ 35 to the receiver crossing the right hash. Bortles’ throw is too high and the receiver tips the ball skyward in an attempt to highpoint it.

The reason is Bortles’ feet. They are too wide after his initial turn from the short route to the down field route. The wide stance causes the ball to sail. Bortles has to be more precise with his turns or make a post-turn adjustment with his feet to throw from a more balanced stance.

Here’s another wide-stance throw that sails in the third quarter from a 2×1 receiver 11 personnel shotgun set.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYd29xlmc04&start=350&w=560&h=315]

Bortles takes a three-step drop, turns to his left and the step he takes towards the receiver during his release is too long and widens his base. The receiver still makes the catch, but the ball sails from the right hash to the left sideline.

Once again, this is a footwork issue and the shorter-faster the drop, the more precise the footwork and the body position as to be. We laud the inherent athleticism of a great juke, spin move or lateral cut to avoid a defender, but the discipline, precision and detail of drops and quick turns to deliver an accurate football requires a similar form of athleticism found in high-end ball room dancing competitions. It’s no coincidence that some NFL wide receivers have performed well in that ballroom dance series in ABC.

Several quarterbacks would fare well, too. When the FOX play-by-play crew quoted Sean Payton saying that Drew Brees was the finest “foot athlete” he’s ever seen, it wasn’t surprising. Brees’ accuracy is among the best in the NFL and he also moves more than most of his peers – even set plays. Matt Ryan also excels at the quick game that requires precision timing and accuracy.

If Bortles continues working on his feet, he has the athleticism and base accuracy to execute this type of passing game if paired with a fine route runner like Roddy White. The key will be honing his feet to remain balanced with multiple turns and steps during this brief span between snap and throw. Based on his ability as a runner and improviser, I see enough from his footwork that there’s an opportunity to maximize this skill if he’s dedicated to the NFL like a career and not like he won he won the lottery.

Eye Manipulation

When a quarterback exhibits the skill to use his eyes to hold or bait the defense, it’s often a product of a passer’s comfort with the play, the opposing defense, and his physical skill to execute. Here’s a dig route Bortles hits in stride with good rhythm and an easy throwing motion. It’s a 2nd-and-11 pass with 0:46 in the first quarter from a 1×2 receiver pistol at the 15 of UCF.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYd29xlmc04&start=135&w=560&h=315]

Bortles drops looking to the middle and then turns to the single receiver side at the right flat towards the running back peeling to the flat before returning to the receiver on the dig. The integration of his eyes and feet to got form left to right,  change the depth of his target to the right, and then make an effortless delivery of the ball to the receiver in stride and with good velocity is all quality work.

Here’s a 2nd and 13 with 5:28 in the half with UCF in a 2×1 receiver 11 personnel set with the runner and tight end to the single receiver side. South Carolina is employing another 4-3 look with the weak side linebacker playing inside shade of the slot receiver. Bortles’ work here flashes his potential as a player who can learn to layer multiple techniques in a short span to manipulate a defender on quick-hitting plays.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYd29xlmc04&start=262&w=560&h=315]

The quarterback executes a one-step drop, turns right, pumps to the back in the flat (or resets the ball if you don’t believe it was actually a pump), and then hits the receiver low and inside up the right sideline. This is savvy play manipulation with the eyes, the action of the ball, and the feet to give his receiver the chance to earn 12 yards under the corner.

Where Bortles gets dinged by NFL scouts is his skill recognizing defenses that employ hybrid man/zone concepts before the snap. This type of defensive scheme that varies where it uses man and zone on the same play in an attempt to trick the quarterback is common in the NFL. The athleticism and flexibility of South Carolina’s defense is a reason I chose to study Bortles’ performance in this game.

The Gamecocks intercept Bortles for the first time using this hybrid concept on a 1st and 20 pass with 1:28 in the half from a nickel look with the corners off the outside receivers between 5-7 yards. When Bortles comes to the line in a 2×1 receiver 11 personnel alignment, the quarterback reads the safeties and sees a defensive alignment that looks like pure zone. He does not note the potential impact on the cornerback coverage when the safeties change their positions just before the snap.

As a result, Bortles thinks he can look off the safety to his left and then turn to the right and deliver a route between the zone. The corner, now playing off-man, breaks on the route and cuts off the receiver for the interception.

One of the many reasons Peyton Manning is great is his skill at baiting a defense into revealing its coverage much earlier in a play than it wants. In fact, it’s often the last second before the snap that reveals the greatest clues of what a defense is doing. For Bortles becoming a competent player will be a matter of study and drilling (easier said than done).

Pocket Managment

South Carolina’s defense has presented a strong test for a quarterback’s pocket skills well before Clowney ever set foot on the Columbia campus. The Gamecocks tested Bortles’ skill to maneuver the pocket and find the open man down field several times in this game.

Bortles won some and lost some if you count the end result, but the overall process that he demonstrates to address the pressure is impressive. His skills in the pocket project well  in the NFL if he can get better with his feet and improve his recognition of coverage.

This sack by Kelcey Quarles on 3rd and 3 with 13:54 in the half is a good example of a bad result, but a good process. Bortles comes to the line in a  2×1 receiver 11 personnel formation versus Carolina’s 4-3 look with both safeties inside the hash 10 yards deep.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYd29xlmc04&start=160&w=560&h=315]

The quarterback takes a three-step drop and Clowney comes roaring outside the left tackle. By the end of Bortles’ drop, Clowney is two steps away. This is the point of the play where Bortles shares something in common with the best NFL quarterbacks in the pocket.

I noted Sunday on Twitter that Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, and Brees possess a common trait when it comes to eluding pressure from the pocket and it’s not something I have discussed before: They wait as long as possible before executing the first move to avoid the defender. They bait the defender with their stillness, draw him in, and then explode with a turn or dip to ensure the defender has no time to alter his angle to them.

Bortles has this maneuver down pat. On this play, the quarterback is looking down the middle at the end of his drop and waits until Clowney’s approach is too close to alter. Once Clowney reaches that point of no return, the quarterback spins left of the defensive end’s approach, leaving Clowney with nothing but a desperate shot at grasping Bortles’ jersey.

As a quick tangent, Bortles displayed the speed later in this game to escape Clowney to the left flat and throw the ball away. It was a display of speed and quickness that not many NFL quarterbacks will possess.

Back to this play, because there’s more to see. As Bortles spins free of Clowney’s angle, he turns into the second defensive end’s trajectory and is in this end’s face. To compound matters, the defensive tackle on the left side is coming free and closing fast.

Bortles’ sudden spin is enough to get loose from Clowney and in bang-bang succession Bortles makes the second defensive end miss by turning away from the pressure. Throughout it all, the quarterback still manages to keep his arm in position to throw.

If you suspend any thought about the outcome of this play and look at his work avoiding two defensive ends in succession while keeping his arm in a position to deliver the ball, that’s the takeaway despite and anti-climatic ending for the offense.

Here’s nice display of climbing and then sliding – a 2nd and 10 from a 2×1 receiver 11 personnel pistol with 13:56 left from the 25 of Central Florida. Bortles faces a nickel look with two safeties split at the hashes.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYd29xlmc04&start=387&w=560&h=315]

He drops five steps, feels the pressure off the right side from then end, climbs, and then slides to his right. His eyes are down field the entire time. He throws the ball from the right hash to the receiver on the comeback at the right sideline seven yards down field. The receiver drops the ball, but the movement from Bortles is noteworthy.

This 1st and 10 pass of 30 yards from release point to reception that splits the defenders up the seam with great accuracy is also a fine display of pocket management. Bortles comes to the line with 6:47 in the half from a 1×2 receiver 11 personnel pistol with the back to the right and the tight end at left end versus a nickel look with two safeties deep split at the TE and slot man.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYd29xlmc04&start=225&w=560&h=315]

Bortles takes a five-step drop while looking to the middle. As pressure comes from right end, the quarterback hitches to the left, sliding away from the end and splits the zone up the seam to his receiver on the deep cross. The receiver gets his hands on the ball, but the safety over top delivers a hard hit on the airborne receiver, knocking the ball lose, and incurring a personal foul penalty.

Technically, this is an excellent throw. However, it’s not the type of target that Bortles should make unless the game is on the line and no other choice but to place his receiver in harm’s way. A more optimal decision would be to place the ball to the back shoulder and give his receive an opportunity to protect himself.

Accuracy is the basic part of the equation, but placement is advanced section of quarterbacking. This next play should have been a touchdown, but the lack of mature placement results in Bortles’ second interception.

This is a shotgun set on 2nd and 10 with 6:58 left versus South Carolina’s nickel. One safety is 10 yards off the line in the flat, the other occupies the deep middle. But as I mentioned about last-second movements that reveal the true nature of the coverage, the shallow safety begins a deep drop to change his depth to 20 yards just prior to the snap.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYd29xlmc04&start=548&w=560&h=315]

Bortles takes a five step drop looking to the middle and then the left. He makes the read based on the safeties but doesn’t see the deep drop by the middle linebacker that completes what is really happening with this pre-snap safety rotation.

Bortles targets his receiver down the middle seam and this linebacker’s drop beats the throw. Although Bortles likely misread the coverage, he could have beaten it anyway if he throws the ball to a more optimal spot of the field – over the linebacker to the back of the end zone (just as the analyst explains on the broadcast).

As with the 30-yard pass leading his receiver into the teeth of the secondary, Bortles attempts to thread the needle on this potential touchdown rather than lead his teammate to open territory.

Flashes of Integration (View Play and Replay)

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYd29xlmc04&start=464&w=560&h=315]

This 73-yard touchdown is a good example of Bortles combining several of these skills into one positive result. South Carolina opts for a 3-3-5 look with the strong safety at linebacker depth between the defensive end and slot left receiver. At the snap, the safety in the middle of the field drops to his zone and the defensive back on the right plays man on a receiver while the defensive back on the left appears to play zone.

Bortles looks to the middle during his three-step drop, hitches a step to slide past Clowney’s pressure off the edge, and delivers the deep cross under the high safety at the Central Florida 44. It’s a high throw, but not so high that the receiver can’t highpoint the target in stride, turn up field and gain 55 after the catch.

Overall, I was impressed with Bortles’ performance against the Gamecocks. It was far from perfect, but even Andrew Luck struggled making reads and maneuvering pressure at the college level (see Oregon and Oklahoma State). Bortles isn’t the slam dunk prospect that most think Luck was, but I like his feel for the game.

If I had responsibility picking players for an NFL team, Bortles makes my shortlist of first-round candidates based on what I’ve seen thus far and would remain there at least until I interviewed him. I believe he’s closer to what the Titans are hoping they’ll see consistently from Jake Locker.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

“One Good Year” And Other Asinine Thoughts on QB Evaluation

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback
This guy had "one good year" in college football. Photo by PDA.Photo
This guy had “one good year” in college football. Photo by PDA.Photo

One good year. It’s a cautionary refrain from the chorus of skeptics not sold on Central Florida junior Blake Bortles as a top-flight quarterback prospect (see my evaluation of Bortles vs. South Carolina). In the wee hours of the morning in a video-lit room evaluating quarterbacks, this three-word phrase will strike the fear in the hearts of most veteran scouts.

One good year could be Akili Smith, who  like Bortles, was another 6’3″, 220-plus-pound college wonder who the Cincinnati Bengals took third overall in the 1999 NFL Draft. Smith had the arm and the legs to carry team, but according to Smith, who is now coaching quarterbacks at St. Augustine High School in San Diego, he spent more time curling glasses at bars than he did grinding tape in Cincinnati.

However, one good year is also Cam Newton, who took the NFL by storm as a rookie and along with a fine defense has pried open the Panthers’ window of contention. Many scouts were also singing the One good year dirge during the winter of 2011 for this rocket armed athlete who has grown each year as a quarterback and team leader despite concerns he didn’t possess the right kind of potential to handle the role on the field and in the locker room.

More than anything, one good year means NFL scouts don’t have enough evidence to cover their collective assets if a quarterback like Bortles fails. It’s one thing to invest a second, third, or fourth-round pick in players like Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Matt Schaub, or Aaron Brooks and spin their development as a surprise or a stroke of scouting/coaching genius. It’s another to anoint first-round picks the future of the franchise and watch them set back a team’s development.

Personally, I think the phrase one good year is just a phrase. Giving those three words anywhere close to the weight of what’s seen in a game, in practice, or during a team interview is asinine.

Let’s go with the popular idea that a first-round quarterback should be more than a “capable starter.” I know what that means to me, but I have no idea what it means to everyone else. The same goes for “he should be a star.”

Then there’s the inevitable truth that stars rise and decline. If you don’t believe me, look in the sky.

There are many ways to define what that either term means. I’m defining a star as a quarterback who has done at least one of the following during his career:

  • Earned multiple trips to the Pro Bowl.
  • Led the league in meaningful passing categories (yards, touchdowns, completion percentage, or QB rating) for multiple seasons.
  • Led his team to multiple conference championship games.

Here is my criteria for capable starter status. A quarterback with this label should have done at least one of the following:

  • Led his team to the playoffs at least once.
  • Earned one trip to the Pro Bowl.
  • Earned top-5 production in meaningful passing categories (see above) for multiple seasons.

Using this criteria on the 51 first-round quarterbacks drafted since 1993, 22 of them are or were at least capable starters. That’s an underwhelming 45 percent success rate. Only 8 of these first-round picks can be considered stars – an appropriate stardom rate of 15 percent even in this day and age where everyone earns a trophy for participating.

Here’s a look at 17 years of first-round quarterbacks courtesy of DraftHistory.com.  I’m not counting the 2013 class – even in today’s ever-impatient media-fan-ownership environment of the NFL, they get a pass.

Year No. Round Pick Name Star Capable Comments
2012 1 1 1 Andrew Luck x Quintessential rising star. But by this conservative criteria, a “capable starter.”
2 1 2 Robert Griffin III x Pro-Bowl rookie season, toilet bowl sophomore year. Still, a “capable starter.”
3 1 8 Ryan Tannehill Flashes of good work, but jury still out.
4 1 22 Brandon Weeden Two years in and the Browns are eyeing the draft for a QB once again.
2011s 1 3 0 Terrelle Pryor Had moments this year, but regressed and lost the starting job.
2011 1 1 1 Cam Newton x On the cusp of stardom accoridng to my simplistic criteria.
2 1 8 Jake Locker Injuries and play mean the jury is out.
3 1 10 Blaine Gabbert The Jaguars are giving him one more year. I think they mean with the team and not as a starter unless he wows everyone.
4 1 12 Christian Ponder Like the coaching staff, out with the old and in with the new.
2010 1 1 1 Sam Bradford The talent is there but he cannot be considered a capable starter yet.
2 1 25 Tim Tebow Italy is calling.
2 1 5 Mark Sanchez Sanchez is the fly in my criteria’s ointment, because it considers him a star. Fortunately, I’m not counting it. Common sense is a beautiful thing.
3 1 17 Josh Freeman Where will Freeman land?
2008 1 1 3 Matt Ryan x Not quite a star, but more than capable.
2 1 18 Joe Flacco x Highly capable.
2007 1 1 1 JaMarcus Russell Have we heard anything from Jeff Garcia lately?
2 1 22 Brady Quinn Storied program, big muscles, QB looks, and holds a clipboard with the best of them.
2006 1 1 3 Vince Young x At one time, capable but blew it. Still, it counts.
2 1 10 Matt Leinart The next Tom Brady . . .
3 1 11 Jay Cutler x Capable starter.
2005 1 1 1 Alex Smith x Capable starter.
2 1 24 Aaron Rodgers x Stud.
3 1 25 Jason Campbell Career backup.
2004 1 1 1 Eli Manning x Capable starter.
2 1 4 Philip Rivers x Low end of stardom, but qualifies.
3 1 11 Ben Roethlisberger x Stats don’t justify stardom, but the postseason does.
4 1 22 J.P. Losman Trent Edwards was better until Adrian Wilson got to him.
2003 1 1 1 Carson Palmer x Capable starter.
2 1 7 Byron Leftwich x Low end of capable starter at one time.
3 1 19 Kyle Boller Big arm, big-name school, big disappointment.
4 1 22 Rex Grossman Low-end of capable starter w/his Super Bowl appearance.
2002 1 1 1 David Carr Human pin cushion.
2 1 3 Joey Harrington Good college quarterback, good at the piano, and decent on FS1 Network.
3 1 32 Patrick Ramsey Reserve.
2001 1 1 1 Michael Vick x One-time capable starter with exciting gifts.
2000 1 1 18 Chad Pennington Not healthy enough to earn capable starter status even if he was in spirit.
1999 1 1 1 Tim Couch Capable SEC commentator for a regional cable network.
2 1 2 Donovan McNabb x One-time star.
3 1 3 Akili Smith High school QB coach.
4 1 11 Daunte Culpepper x One-time star.
5 1 12 Cade McNown Where are they now?
1998 1 1 1 Peyton Manning x Hall of Famer.
2 1 2 Ryan Leaf Still in the news on occasion.
1997 1 1 26 Jim Druckenmiller Big, strong, and UDFA/NFL Europe’s Jeff Garcia much better.
1995 1 1 3 Steve McNair x Underrated star. Yes, I’m biased. I don’t care. Don’t argue . . .
2 1 5 Kerry Collins x Capable starter at one point.
1994 1 1 3 Heath Shuler I wonder what Norv Turner was thinking when he laid eyes on Shuler.
2 1 6 Trent Dilfer x Beginning to remind me of F. Murray Abraham in “Finding Forrester.”
1993 1 1 1 Drew Bledsoe x Low-end star at one time.
2 1 2 Rick Mirer Goes to show you even Bill Walsh was fallible.

I inadvertently omitted Matt Stafford from this list (capable starter), but I did count him into my calculations. I don’t know about you, but a 45 percent success rate for a first-round quarterback developing into a capable starter tells me that having hard and fast rules about where and when you invest in a quarterback is foolish.

Another acceptable notion of “common sense” is that NFL teams shouldn’t draft a quarterback unless they believe that player sees star potential from that prospect. Using the same sample size and criteria, there are 35 quarterbacks since 1993 that were drafted with one of the top-15 overall picks. Only 6 of those 35 passers became stars – a whopping 17 percent success rate for meeting these organizations’ expectations.

Go easier on these top-15 picks and consider them successful as “capable starters” then that rate jumps to 54 percent. Still, the probability for turning a top-15 overall pick at quarterback has been marginally better than a coin flip.  If the NFL hasn’t figured out how to project the talent with more accuracy than it has, then why should anyone listen to a former or current scout, coach, general manager, or owner when they explain their criteria for what makes a good first-round caliber quarterback?

This is not a complete indictment of NFL personnel men. Injuries and surrounding talent can alter the prospects of a young player that teams probably did a fair job of evaluating. However, the idea that the NFL and the draft community should be critiquing what constitutes a potential “bull’s-eye” with an anecdotal theory about “one good year” when it has difficulty hitting the target is putting the Super Bowl before the regular season.

This week, I’ll post some evaluation notes on Bortles. I promise you “one good year,” won’t be a part of my analysis.

 For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: Fresno State QB Derek Carr

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback

Footwork

Want a glimpse into a quarterback’s mind? Watch his feet. Derek Carr’s reveal initiative and impulsivity.

Futures: Fresno State QB Derek Carr

by Matt Waldman

Want a glimpse into a quarterback’s mind? Watch his feet.

If there’s a minimal amount of footwork before a throw, the passer is making quick decisions. If there are hitches after the initial drop, the decision process is taking longer.

If the footwork in either instance is precise, there’s a greater chance the quarterback has a mental command of his environment and the resulting passes will be accurate. If the steps and stance are sloppy and off balanced, chaos – in the pocket or in the passer’s mind – is often afoot.

One of the pervading concerns about individuals from this spread generation of NFL quarterback prospects is their ability to transition from a shotgun attack to dropping from center and reading more advanced defensive concepts on the retreat. Even as the NFL has adopted the spread, these are concerns that place Fresno State’s Derek Carr front and center among this crop of quarterback prospects.

A first-round prospect on many analysts’ draft boards heading into the pre-draft madness, Carr runs an offense that uses a lot of screens and slants. This is nothing new. Cam Newton, Robert Griffin, Brandon Weeden, Geno Smith, Blaine Gabbert and Nick Foles all came from spread-heavy attacks.

However, there’s a perception among many analysts based on conversations with scouts that prospects from spread-heavy offenses have more to prove when it comes to selling a team on their ability to transition to the NFL. It’s among the reasons why there was a much more grounded, confident mood around the selection of players like Andrew Luck, Ryan Tannehill, Christian Ponder, Mike Glennon, and Sam Bradford – even if the returns have been equally mixed.

This week’s Futures examines Carr’s game with footwork as an underlying focus. David Carr’s younger brother has all the physical tools to become a productive NFL starter. The question is – as it is for more prospects at the top half of the draft – does he possess the mental acumen to integrate these skills into the complexities of leading an NFL offense?

Carr’s spread offense doesn’t provide definitive answers, but it does offer worthwhile clues about his future transition. These indicators tell me Carr is not an instant star, but give him two to three years and he can be the quarterback a team can build around.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

2014 RSP Early Bird Discount

0 Comments read RSP Publication
You picked this guy high despite a nagging injury if you followed the 2013 RSP. Photo by John Martinez-Paviliga
You picked this guy high despite a nagging knee injury as a senior if you followed the 2013 RSP. Photo by John Martinez-Paviliga

Pre-order the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio Until February 10 for $17.95!

“Best thing I’ll buy this year . . .”

                 -Bob Harris, Fantasy Football Hall Fame inductee and editor of Fantasy Sports Publications, Inc.

For the past three years, I’ve had readers ask me to make the RSP available for pre-order. My first thought three years ago was Why? It’s not like I’m going to run out of virtual copies. My next thought was Hey Stupid, if your readers like the RSP so much that they’re willing to pay and wait until April 1, take it as a compliment! 

Although you have gladly paid $19.95 to pre-order the RSP last year, I want to reward my die-hard readers for paying upfront and waiting until April 1. So this year, I’m giving a 10 percent early bird discount for the 2014 RSP until February 10. You can pre-pay here.

So you know, I already have over 153 prospects completed for the 2014 RSP. Typically, previous editions of the RSP total  150-175 players, so I’m well ahead of schedule with my research. You can view the running tally of players completed on this page.

Remember your purchase also entitles you to the free post-draft update (in publication since 2012), which is available for download with your purchased login a week after the NFL Draft.  Fantasy owners love the Post-Draft edition and it’s worth the cost of what you pay for the pre-draft publication:

  • Analysis and commentary on depth charts, team fit, and each player’s long-term outlook.
  • Rankings overall, by position, and tiered for fantasy drafts.
  • Draft selection data for dynasty leagues, including ADP and my own value scores to help you use my rankings to maximize your draft value.
  • Overrated/Underrated players.

New to the RSP? Find out why it has a dedicated following and how the RSP gives back to the community. Past issues (2006-2013 are available for $9.95)

Remember, pre-pay today through February 10 and the RSP and the post-draft is $17.95. From February 11 through March 31,  you can still reserve your login and get one of the most comprehensive analysis of skill position players available for $19.95.

Even at $19.95, it’s like the Seahawks picking Russell Wilson in the third round – a steal. At $17.95? We’re talking Tom Brady . . .

Simple? Hopefully. If you need help, contact me at mattwaldmanrsp@gmail.com. I can typically respond within 24 hours of your email.

Boiler Room: Penn State WR Allen Robinson

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Wide Receiver
Photo by Penn State News.
Photo by Penn State News.

Most believe Allen Robinson is a good prospect, so why show a positive play in the Boiler Room?

The Boiler Room Series is my attempt to capture the state of an NFL prospect’s development into a single play. This is an impossible task, but what if you have a limited number of plays to state your case about a prospect to the leadership team within your organization? If you’ve researched enough about this player, a cut-up of choice plays with a short presentation can provide a decent assessment of strengths, weaknesses, and potential fit for the team. You can read the rest of my Boiler Room Series here.

Penn State junior Allen Robinson is tall, quick, strong, and adjusts well to the football. There are times he looks like a player in the mold of the Marc Trestman’s outside receivers in Chicago. I could show you plays that make Robinson’s fan boys write me and respond with “great read,” but it’s pointless. If I were contributing to a cut-up of Robinson’s play that would inform a coaching staff what they have to address with Robinson early in his career, the play I’d choose is a crossing route against Nebraska.

It’s a simple play, Robinson is the single receiver in a 3×1 receiver 10 personnel shotgun set with the cornerback playing tight to the ling of scrimmage with a slight outside shade with 0:55 in the half at the 29 of Penn State. The receiver does a solid job of using an outside-in release with his footwork and he doesn’t encounter any resistance from the corner. The free release inside gives Robinson some cushion to accelerate and then break inside on a cross.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XjPVcKDF00&start=178&w=560&h=315]

The ball arrives and Robinson makes the catch, takes a hit in the back, and is dropped a couple of yards inside the catch point. No yards are gained on after the catch. Good route, good catch, what’s there to say?

No yards gained after the catch.

One of the best things about a crossing route is that it gives the receiver a chance to earn yards after the catch. Robinson failed to do so on this play not because of the coverage or the throw. He left his feet.

A common mistake young receivers make on crossing routes thrown at chest level and above is to leap for the target. Sometimes it’s difficult to gauge the trajectory of the ball and receivers would rather err on making the catch than not earning yards after contact. However, the best receivers track the ball well enough to make the reception on the move with their hands away from their bodies.

If Robinson can fix this one area of his game, and it’s a correctable flaw, he becomes a more productive player immediately.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Boiler Room: Ole Miss RB/PR Jeff Scott

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Running Back, Wide Receiver
Photo by Lukeamotion.
Photo by Lukeamotion.

Curling into the fetal position was a highlight I considered, but it wouldn’t be fair to a dynamic player.

The Boiler Room Series is my attempt to capture the state of an NFL prospect’s development into a single play. This is an impossible task, but what if you have a limited number of plays to state your case about a prospect to the leadership team within your organization? If you’ve researched enough about this player, a cut-up of choice plays with a short presentation can provide a decent assessment of strengths, weaknesses, and potential fit for the team. You can read the rest of my Boiler Room Series here.

If I were to present one play to an NFL team on Jeff Scott, the Rebels’ fine running back and return specialist, it would be of him turning the corner on a sweep only to drop to his knees and curl into the fetal position at the feet of a defensive back and linebacker. This does not sound like a complimentary depiction of Scott, but it’s more of a reality check to a potential investor.

Truth be told, this is not disparaging commentary on the 5-7, 168-pound running back’s game. If Scott wasn’t tough enough, he wouldn’t be the team’s starting running back in the Southeastern Conference.

One upon a time, friends of mine had an impromptu backyard game in Athens. Most of these guys playing were in the range of 6-1 to 6-4 and 200-240 pounds. They were decent shape for former high school football players. They were the type of 20-something dudes who would think, “I could tackle Jeff Scott.”

One of those guys playing that day was Mark Maxwell, a local guitarist and recording studio owner (scroll down to bottom of link) who is known in town for producing an album of lullabies that have sold 100,000 copies. The local hospital even gave them to newborn parents (buy them here). Mark was a skinny, long-haired musician with glasses.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/edTBdfd1ABI]

He also played college football at Georgia Tech for Bill Curry.

Maxwell was a running back and returned kicks for the Yellow Jackets. According to my friends, when Maxwell fielded the kickoff he left everyone on the ground holding a body part in well under seven seconds.

That skinny, long-haired musician ran through everyone like a hot knife through butter and he did it wearing a pair of sandals. I don’t know if this is accurate, but legend has it this was the day they nicknamed Maxwell “Sandals.”

Like Maxwell – and even more so, considering that Maxwell quit football and transferred to Georgia to study music – Scott’s game is built on speed and agility. He’s a space player on the lightest end of the spectrum of running backs.

Scott knows his limits and testing his mettle on plays that aren’t vital to the outcome of the game isn’t smart of him if he wants to help his team with more touches.   Showing a play of Scott curling into the fetal position at the end of a run would be my reminder that he’s a space player and not a traditional running back.

Like Scott, Dexter McCluster is plenty tough, but well under 200 lbs., he's not a 200-lb. guy you run between the tackles. Photo by Tennessee Journalist Wade Rackley.
Like Scott, Dexter McCluster is plenty tough, but well under 200 lbs., he’s not a guy you run between the tackles. Photo by Tennessee Journalist Wade Rackley.

Develop him as a hybrid or a slot receiver if you see something about his skills that fit into the current offensive scheme.  Just remember that you’re seeking chunk plays from Scott.

How he’ll do that first – and best – is on special teams. Therefore, the Boiler Room play for Scott is a punt return with 32 second in the third quarter versus Texas.

It’s a high, booming punt that Scott tracks to the right hash at the Ole Miss 27. He bounces it a few yards to his right and then uses his terrific agility to reverse field and make three defenders miss good angles to him. Not only does he reverse field, but he layers a second move into that series of steps to beat that third defender and access a lane under a block.

Is this all planned? Of course not, but it’s a demonstration that his open field game unfolds with greater control than his peers.

Scott isn’t big, but give him space and momentum and he’s a tough player to take down. Not long after beating these first three defenders on the return, Scott reaches the 40 and runs through a wrap to his outside leg.

Scott regains his balance and turns down hill bending the run behind a blocker at the 45, avoiding a defender just inside the left hash. At this point, Scott has the advantage with a blocker in the left flat and a swath of open turf ahead at the 45.

He gains another 20 yards up the left flat, picks up a block, and has a convoy of five teammate for the final procession to the end zone – a 73-yard touchdown. Here’s the return.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGtAkNYUqOc&start=230&w=420&h=315]

That’s a play that can make the collective psyche of the opposition curl into the fetal position.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Isaiah Crowell

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back

Isaiah Crowell

Based on talent only, Alabama State’s Isaiah Crowell is the best RB in this 2014 draft class. Talent isn’t everything.  

Watch an Alabama State football game and you’ll see a talented young man in a hurry. Isaiah Crowell has a sense of urgency that transcends the field of play.  Every time  the Hornets’ 5’11”, 215-lb. starting running back hits a crease or turns a corner with the ball in his hands, it feels like there’s more power in his legs than the hunger for another yard, another first down, or another touchdown.

It feels as if Crowell had his way, he’d burst through the line of scrimmage, hit the sideline, disappear through the tunnel of the stadium on a Saturday, and with the assistance of a football time-portal (operating courtesy of high-end quantum physics/magic), emerge 24 hours later onto the grass of an NFL field.

Hell, if a human being could run fast enough and reverse the orbit of the earth to disrupt the space-time continuum and erase a few years of events while retaining the wisdom gained (think Superman saving Lois Lane in the 1978 film), Crowell would lace up those cleats and get to sprinting.

It’s what I see as I watch the latest chapter of Crowell’s college career. If I based my evaluation of Crowell’s NFL potential solely on football skill, he is easily the best running back in this 2014 NFL Draft class. But talent isn’t everything.

When Isaiah Crowell arrived a Georgia as a freshman, there was talk that the Columbus Georgia native had the kind of talent that folks in Athens Georgia hadn’t seen since Herschel Walker. Much of this hype was on the national level among the more photo-friendly, word-conservative publications covering college football. Walker is the standard-bearer for Georgia running backs and Crowell was a worthy challenger to the crown. A 5-star recruit, Crowell’s 850 yards, and 15 touchdowns as a freshman set the stage for at least two more seasons of big-time college football excellence.

In less than a year on campus, he failed a drug test and was charged with two felony counts of illegal possession of a firearm. The charges were later dismissed because there wasn’t sufficient proof that the guns were Crowell’s, but Georgia had seen enough. By spring, Crowell’s career as a Bulldog was over.

Two years into his enrollment at Alabama State, Crowell has no off-field issues, attends class, and has often dazzled on the field. A five-star recruit at the running back position should be good enough to transcend the caliber of football around him.

But questions about Crowell’s commitment to a team environment linger. Unlike Jadeveon Clowney, Crowell is no longer an SEC star and while it means that the spotlight is far dimmer in the SWAC, the microscope is still just as powerful.

Tim Gayle of the Montgomery Advertiser had a revealing interview with Hornets’ head coach Reggie Barlow about Crowell’s tenure with the Alabama State football team. It includes discussion about Crowell removing himself from games after suffering injuries some consider minor and not returning to the field for the rest of those games.

“Just talking to the scouts, they’re thinking that what you’ve done over these four years, that’s what you are,” said Barlow, who played in the National Football League for eight seasons. “The money won’t make you do it. The money will make you lazier and make you miss more because you’ve got guaranteed money. If the guy hasn’t done it over the last four years . . . it’s hard to over come it . . .

When you’re NFL personnel and you’re investing big money in these young adults, you want to know that, one, he’s going to play to the best of his ability to for as long as he can play and you want to know he’s going to practice to the best of his ability and you want to know that he’s going to be a good teammate and not cause strife . . .

Isaiah has grown up and matured a little bit but he stil as to understand that, on that level, there are only three running backs on a roster. There’s a starter, your change-of-pace back that is typically your punt returner and kickoff return. And your third back plays on all special teams.

I’ve had those conversations with him. What if  he goes to the Houston Texans and they have Arian Foster and he’s the starter? You’re the guy that comes in sparingly. Are you willing to be the personal protector on the punt team? Are you willing to run down on the kickoff team? Those are the things he has to answer and be true to because it’ll show. You can’t hide up there.”

As someone who has questioned the party line that many draft analysts have taken with Clowney, an underpaid, minimally protected, front-line employee in the big business of college football, one might expect I’d have the same sentiments about Crowell protecting his long-term interests.  However, I’m more ambivalent about the Hornets’ star running back.

Although he has played through a knee bruise, a sprained left ankle and a swollen foot this season, Crowell’s past transgressions are a huge red flag about the running back’s willingness to be a teammate and not just a star. In this sense, Crowell has generated a potential lose-lose situation when it comes to the draft.

He has to be in peak physical condition to perform like a star if he wants to even earn a shot with an NFL team beyond a spring tryout. Yet if he protects himself at the cost of helping his team, then he plays into the selfish, entitled, and immature label that got Crowell into this predicament in the first place.

The truth is that I haven’t decided where I stand with Crowell. I believe a young man who was on the cusp of earning everything and lost it all must spend a lot of time thinking about ways to best protect his professional future while at the same time showing his potential employers that he’s worth their consideration. I believe a young man might make the mistake of viewing Alabama State as a weigh station or pit stop along his journey to the NFL when he could have become a major leader on this team and had his team raving about him instead of mixed reviews from his head coach.

But I also believe that a young man still has a lot of room for growth and even with the mixed reviews, he’s heading in the right direction. Dez Bryant, Ryan Mathews, and Josh Gordon are three examples front and center into today’s NFL that maturation is a process. As long as the overall trend continues pointing upward, the NFL will invest in talent in need of maturation.

I’m the first to tell you that NFL-caliber talents at running back are a dime a dozen, but there’s a difference between an NFL talent and an NFL feature back. Crowell has feature back talent that has been evident since he set foot on Georgia’s campus.

His 19-touch, 158-yard, 2-touchdown performance as a freshman against a loaded South Carolina defense that included the likes of Clowney, Melvin Ingram (Chargers), Devin Taylor (Lions), DeVonte Holloman (Cowboys), Stephon Gillmore (Bills), and D.J. Swearinger (Texans), is an impressive testament.

Eyes-Feet-Pad Level

Crowell’s first touch in this game is a display of everything that makes him special as a runner. It’s a 15-yard gain on 1st and 10 at the UGA 31 from a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel set. South Carolina plays a 34 look against Georgia’s zone play to the right. The guards on this play work upfield to the inside linebackers while the rest of the line slants to the right to block the defensive front.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/vTzsE3H8rB0]

The first thing Crowell displays is a terrific link between his eyes and his feet. If you’ve ever wondered what “runs with his eyes,” means, this is a good example. The Georgia running back approaches the line of scrimmage towards the right guard and he sees the nose tackle getting penetration into the backfield.

Crowell cuts behind his center and through the gap off the left guard to cross the line of scrimmage and then dips back to the inside towards the right flat so he can work past his tight end’s block on the outside linebacker. There is some excellent change of direction happening on this play and not all of these moves are from dramatic cuts.

Much of the best footwork is how well Crowell varies his stride length to maintain good balance through traffic, stay downhill, and set up additional blocks. Crowell takes what could have easily been a gain of 2-3 yards in the direction the blocking intended and makes one early detour that still leads back to the intended path and results in a 15-yard gain.

Crowell finishes this run by bouncing outside his tight end’s block and then cuts downhill to work inside his receiver’s block at the 40. He lowers his pads into the safety at the 43, slides under the contact and crosses the 46. Continuous low pad level is one of the things I love about Crowell’s running style, but look how low the safety is on this play. Crowell still manages to get under his opponent’s pads. This is Edgerrin James-like pad level.

Balance

This 28-yard run from a 2×1 receiver, 11 personnel set is the type of play that will get all but the most jaded football fan to think “that’s a man right there.” The Georgia line slants right as its guards work to the second level to attack the linebackers and one again Crowell has to address penetration into the backfield.

The running back takes a step towards the right side of the line at the snap towards the right guard. As he approaches the exchange point with the quarterback, Crowell spots the penetration through right guard working its way to yards into the backfield. Crowell takes the exchange, hops inside the penetration, and cuts downhill at the right hash under the block of his tight end.

Then my favorite part. The linebacker screams into the picture and slams into Crowell’s right shoulder at the same time a second defender shoots low from the opposite side. Crowell’s aforementioned stride as a runner gives him the flexibility to duck his shoulder away from the full impact of the hit and at the same time pull his left leg away from the defensive back’s wrap.

Crowell emerges from the high-low hit that would end play for most college running backs and gains another six yards for the first down as he crosses the middle of he field to the left hash at the 40. He gains another seven before he encounters the cornerback crossing over top at the 30 in an attempt to cut off the runner’s angle. While navigating this defender, Crowell gets wrapped from behind by the linebacker giving chase and finishes the run diving forward to the South Carolina 31.

Watch the rest of this cut-up package of Crowell against South Carolina and you’ll see a runner with a good stiff arm, soft hands as a receiver, and the maturity to grind out the tough yards against a top-notch defense. It’s a performance from a freshman that most seniors with NFL aspirations would envy. It’s tape that also provides credence that what you’re about to see from his Alabama State tape isn’t an illusion.

Burst

This is a 1st and 10 run early in the first quarter from a 2×2 receiver 10 personnel pistol against a 3-4 look from Jackson State. The line slants right and Crowell takes the exchange towards the center before dipping outside towards the left tackle. Waiting in the hole is an unblocked linebacker.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSjr0Ldo5XU&start=12&w=420&h=315]

Watch the replay from the end zone angle and note the quickness of the outside-in move paired with a straight-arm to get past the defender in the hole. The best prospects integrate their physical and conceptual skills in a variety of ways and this 14-yard gain is just one example.

Decision Making

A vital part of great vision is balancing the qualities of patience and decisiveness. Every back errs on one end of this spectrum, but the best runners have a knack for striking the right balance more times than their peers. This 84-yard touchdown run has other components worth mentioning such as speed, balance, pad level, and second effort, but it’s the decisiveness and commitment to the crease that I value in light of the runs I showed of Crowell where he has to demonstrate more creativity and patience.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSjr0Ldo5XU&start=35&w=420&h=315]

The Hornets’ runner takes the ball from this 1×3 receiver, 10-personnel shotgun set at the 16 and veers toward the left end. If you freeze the tape at the 54-second mark where Crowell is still a step inside the left hash, there’s a good view of the unblocked linebacker working through the gap. I’ve seen my share of backs who rely too much on their athleticism and try to avoid this defender rather than commit to the intended path. Clinton Portis is a great example of a runner with excellent feet and agility who could commit to a crease even if it appears small and the pursuit is looming. Laurence Maroney could not.

Crowell doesn’t hesitate. He beats the linebacker to the crease and hits it hard enough with good pad level to bounce off a hit as he turns down hill and then run through the defensive linebacker four yards down field. Driving through the wrap, Crowell emerges in the open field at the 25, accelerates to top speed at the 35, and maintains his pace the final 65 yards.

More Skills Integration: Stiff Arm and Second-Level Cuts

This play features a second-level cut back that I’ve seen Ryan Mathews, Matt Forte, and Adrian Peterson make in college and the NFL. It’s an 11-personnel pistol set at the Alabama State 34. Not only does Crowell hit this hole with authority, he obliterates the angle of an unblocked safety as he emerges from contact with a defensive lineman.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSjr0Ldo5XU&start=162&w=420&h=315]

Crowell has to stiff arm the defensive tackle as he hits his crease and still manages to make a hard cut under the safety without losing stride. The footwork, burst, and balance to make this happen is feature back material. It’s the type of 21-yard run one would also witness in a Seahawks contest featuring Marshawn Lynch.

I asked football writer and former NFL player Ryan Riddle what it was like trying to tackle Marshawn Lynch, Riddle’s teammate at Cal. Riddle said, “It was like trying to tackle the ocean.” Crowell has a similar quality of energy to his running style – even if those possessing little appreciation for the nuance of analysis will blurt out “but Lynch doesn’t run out of bounds.” Of course, those are the same people who just read this passage and thought I said Ryan Mathews is as good as Adrian Peterson.

Crowell has the physical skill and conceptual know-how to develop into a productive feature back in the NFL. He’s the best pure runner in this class. In fact, I think his combination of vision, balance, and burst would have made him a better prospect than any back in the 2013 class. But Crowell isn’t wrapping up his junior year at Georgia with a spotless off-field record. He’s about to learn one way or the other that talent only gets you so far in this world.

I hope this time he’s had enough hard lessons to choose the easier ones.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 12/27/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

This week at RLV: Notes from the RSP Film Room, the Internet’s Dark Lord, Mister Rogers, and Classic Hip-Hop.

Views – 10 Mister Rogers Quotes For Bad Days

Mister-rogers-quote-4

Here’s the link to the rest.

Welcome

If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog, welcome. Every Friday, I post links to things I’m checking out when I’m online. You may not like everything listed here, but you’re bound to like something. It’s also my chance to thank you for reading my work and encourage you to follow the RSP blog and buy the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

For those of you new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, the publication is available every April 1. You can learn more about the RSP here. If you want to see samples of the play-by-play notes I take to write the analysis, you can find them here. And to download past versions of the publication (2006-2012), go here.

Remember, 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light, a non-profit devoted to preventing and addressing sexual abuse through community training in schools, religious groups, and a variety of civic groups across the U.S. Here is what the RSP donated to D2L this year. According to D2L, the RSP’s 2013 donation amount was enough to train 250 adults in communities across the country.  I will have an announcement about the 2014 RSP in January. Stay tuned.

RSP Film Room Takes

Bishop Sankey is part of a class of mature runners who may not have flash, but run with substance. Photo by James Santelli.
Bishop Sankey is part of a class of mature runners who may not have flash, but run with substance. Photo by James Santelli.

The Christmas/New Years break gives me an opportunity to hole up in my office and go through marathon sessions of games. Here are some quick takes on players I’ve seen in recent days that you might find worthwhile. To see who else I’ve studied thus far for the 2014 publication available April 1, check out the running list.

Former Oregon tight end Colt Lyerla may not be the best athlete at the position in this class, but he has the best combination of all-around skills if you’re a team seeking a move tight end who can approximate what we saw from Aaron Hernandez in New England. He has the fluid athleticism of a large running back with H-Back skills. When I watch Lyerla play, I understand why there are teams willing to take a chance on him in light of what we’ve seen on and off the field with Hernandez. More than anything, I just want to see Lyerla change his life so he doesn’t waste it – football or no football.

Speaking of New England Patriots tight ends, UMass’ Rob Blanchflower has the dimensions of Rob Gronkowski. There’s going to be a lot of discussion about this tight end at the Senior Bowl because of his dimensions and enough fluid athleticism to exploit the seam. How well he catches the ball against tight coverage and imminent contact will enhance or derail those stylistic comparisons.

A project at the tight end position with some athletic upside is BYU’s Kaneakua Friel. He’s not ready for the NFL, but he has the raw tools to develop into a contributor in all phases of the game.

There’s a lot of underground draftnik love for Southern Mississippi receiver Francisco Llanos. I stumbled across comparisons to him and Victor Cruz. After studying multiple games, I understand the motivation to make that stylistic comparison, but I won’t be one of those writers linking the two players. Llanos has to improve his consistency as a pass catcher and I have questions about his playing speed. I don’t think he’ll be drafted.

In fact, if you’re seeking some underrated slot receiver candidates put Erik Lora near the top of my list. The Eastern Illinois receiver makes plays. As for less productive players in Llanos’ tier who I believe have as much or more to offer are Michigan’s Drew Dileo or BYU’s J.D. Falslev.  

The lesser known receiver enjoyed watching was Coastal Carolina receiver Matt Hazel. Fluid, athletic, and sure-handed.

Speaking of sure-handed, I enjoyed watching Arizona State running back Marion Grice. Between Grice, Bishop Sankey and Ka’Deem Carey, what this class lacks in overall flash, it compensates with maturity between the tackles. Grice is an excellent receiver with basic technique, strong effort, and good diagnostic skills as a pass protector. There are some plays that I think I see speed and acceleration from Grice that’s NFL-caliber and others where it seems absent. I look forward to seeing if I can get a better handle on it at the Senior Bowl.

In Case You Missed It/What’s Ahead at The RSP Blog

  • Boiler Room: CU WR Paul Richardson – See the anatomy of a sick catch.
  • Futures: TE Jace Amaro (Saturday)
  • Futures: DE Jadeveon Clowney – Why I don’t think “mailing it in” would have matter if that’s what Clowney did this year. And I don’t think he did.
  • Senior Bowl Reports (late January) – I decided to apply for media credentials as the RSP rather than do joint work with other groups. You’ll find most of my takes and practice reports here.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/hzfTqVSyLl8]

Reads (Football)

Reads (Non-Football)

Listens 

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Hs8a1mNEhRc]

The marimba solo after the statement of the melody is fantastic.

Views – The Root of The Problem

[youtube=http://youtu.be/pFYb4gKEFl4]

They money speaks louder than the words. Corporations may be filled with human beings, but they don’t behave as human beings. Until we recognize this difference, we’re stuck with our outrage.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/TKGnMSYbnJ0]

Rest in peace Yusef Lateef

Boiler Room: CU WR Paul Richardson

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Wide Receiver
Colorado receiver Paul Richardson may need to add meat to his bones, but he can ball. Photo by Jeremy Kunz.
Colorado receiver Paul Richardson may need to add meat to his bones, but he can ball. Photo by Jeremy Kunz.

“Have you seen Paul Richardson yet?” You’re about to see why I’ve been asked this question by a follower multiple times since August.

Last week, I finally watched two games of the Colorado receiver and I get it, Richardson has flash to his game. You’ll see what I mean if you’ve never heard of the junior who has declared for the 2014 NFL Draft. I’m sold on his ability, but there is a lingering question I’ll have until he proves otherwise: Can Richardson get bigger?

Listed at 6-1, 170 lbs., Richardson doesn’t appear to have the frame to withstand punishment at the position. Anecdotal precedent brings to mind a former second-round pick of the Philadelphia Eagles in the 2000 NFL Draft who was known for his excellent hands and routes, but at 6-3, 180 lbs., Todd Pinkston was rail thin for an NFL receiver. And if I recall correctly, Pinkston wasn’t 180 until 2-3 years into his career.

Pinkston gave teammates and fans a hint of his skills throughout his five-year career, including a 60-catch, 798-yard, 7-score season in 2002. However, the Eagles’ receiver also had some well-publicized moments of alligator arms. It was an issue I don’t recall Pinkston having until he became an NFL veteran and I wouldn’t be surprised if it had to do with his skinny frame.

Adding weight is an obvious answer, but there are some individuals who have a difficult time adding it. I always wondered if Pinkston was one of them – he fit the body time. Richardson says he can get bigger, stronger, and faster when he enters the NFL. I hope he’s right, because he has the baseline skills and athleticism to develop into an NFL starter who can stretch defenses to its limit.

The Boiler Room is a series devoted to providing readers a glimpse of a prospect through a single highlight that encapsulates a great deal about a player’s skills. One play hardly ever tells the full story of a player, but if you watch enough of a prospect, you can get a feel for the plays that will do that player justice if you could only show one.

The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round. Richardson’s ability makes him a candidate to go this early, but the fact he’s a junior, missed much of his sophomore year, and others might also have concerns about his size, don’t make the early rounds a guarantee.

Richardson’s Play: Speed, Quickness, Concentration, and Hand-Eye Coordination

The play I chose highlights the base skills that makes Richardson one of the better college receivers in the country. It’s a 1st-and-10 catch for 28 yards with 0:52 in the first quarter. Richardson is the outside receiver on the left side of a 30 personnel pistol set. The cornerback plays a yard off the line of scrimmage and is shaded slightly inside. Based on the position of the safety, who is closer to the defensive end in his alignment well inside the left hash, this is single coverage for Richardson.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezRBYbkChgQ&start=131w=420&h=315]

Richardson’s release isn’t technically amazing, but it demonstrates a player with skills to build on. He takes two short steps off the line to the inside and then begins his burst outside. Richardson uses his inside arm to slip inside the defender’s body, gaining separation up the numbers and to the flat. By the time the Buffaloes receiver gets 13 yards down field, he has a full step on the defender. [Subsequent note: the defender is Ifo Ekpre-Olumu, one of the best cornerbacks in college football, and a personal favorite of mine]

Early separation will need to be a hallmark of Richardson’s game in the NFL even if he adds weight and gets stronger, because I’m skeptical he’ll gain more than 10-15 pounds of good weight. A player like Jordy Nelson or Anquan Boldin can bang with a corner while working down-field and win position late. It’s unlikely Richardson will ever be that kind of player. It means Richardson will need to demonstrate to a quarterback that he is a reliable route runner who can win the trust of his passer on plays that don’t appear wide-open early.

What’s most impressive about Richardson’s game is his skill as a pass catcher. The receiver is in full stride as the ball arrives, but the corner has Richardson’s inside arm pinned to Richardson’s side. Not does this move up the difficulty of the target, but it can distract a receiver from an attempt to make a play.

Not Richardson. The receiver extends for the ball with his outside arm, making a diving catch. He also manages to secure the ball with one arm before he lands and doesn’t lose security after rebounding off the turf.

It’s a beautiful play. It’s also what this play isn’t that concerns me. It isn’t a route into the teeth of the defense where there will be an impending hit from a safety or linebacker. Those situations will be the bellwether of Richardson’s role in the NFL: a contributor as a deep threat lacking that final dimension to thrive as an every-down starter or a primary threat capable of making plays anywhere on the field.

There are plenty of good receivers over the past 20 years who weighed less than 180 lbs. in the NFL, but most of them were in the height range of 5-8 to 5-10 and their frames were more compact. At 6-1, 170 lbs., I hope Richardson is right about getting bigger and stronger – he’s too much fun to watch not to see him play every down.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: South Carolina DE Jadeveon Clowney

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players

[youtube=http://youtu.be/jrDGmnQXLgE]

Let’s presume for a moment that the claim Clowney “mailed it in” this year to protect his business interests is true. Does it matter? 

“That’s weird, a Michigan helmet just rolled into my room.”
– Grabhammer, YouTube (May 2013)

Nope. Not weird at all, Grabhammer. I saw the Wolverine football hardware on my street heading north sometime in early February. It was moving so fast the facemask got caught on the edge of a manhole cover and pried the thing loose like a can opener popping the cap on a Yuengling.

The good people of Tennessee say it caused an eight-car pileup on I-75; folks in Kentucky blamed it for rolling power outages; and in the report filed with the Coast Guard, a fisherman on Lake Erie mistook the helmet for the Loch Ness Monster. I’m just relieved to hear it finally came to a stop before anyone was seriously injured.

While none of us reporting these events have visual proof of this helmet’s odyssey – an improbable journey of three and one-quarter longitudinal laps around the earth that spanned approximately 74,945 miles before it rolled to a stop in Grabhammer’s man cave – scientists have a working theory of how it happened. They have traced its beginnings – the launch event – to January 1, 2013 in Tampa, Florida.

Launch Event. I couldn’t think of a better description of what happens to Michigan running back Vincent Smith and his helmet on this 1st-and-10 play with 8:22 left in the Outback Bowl against South Carolina.

The ESPN caption of the universally viewed YouTube clip I’m about to share reads “a rush for a loss of 8 yards.” It’s technically correct, but how does one classify what happens above as a “rush” if Smith never took a step with ball in his hands? “Rush attempt” is a more accurate description. After all, Michigan did at least try a running play. There are options I like more: Mugging. Ball jacking. Annihilation.

Yet there isn’t a better term to describe the play that sent this Michigan Wolverine helmet into a temporary orbit around the earth than the phrase “Launch Event.” The ignition for the world’s first momentum-powered land-based satellite is South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. For those of you who just got out of solitary confinement, here is this proper introduction to the best prospect of the 2014 NFL Draft.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gC44nP7ClxM&w=560&h=315]

Before scientists defined the travels of this maize and blue helmet as an orbit, fantasy football writer Ryan Boser artfully named this play the “Jacapitation.” Actually, he used the past verb tense “Jacapitated,” as in “Vincent Smith’s helmet, and any sense of bravado he once possessed as a big-time college football player, was Jacapitated from his head on the afternoon of January 1, 2013.”

Clowney is a game-changing talent. Kirk Herbstreit sums it up best when he says that Clowney is to the defensive end position what Calvin Johnson is to wide receiver.

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