Posts tagged 2014 RSP

No Huddle Series: Missouri WR L’Damien Washington

December 18, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

L'Damien Washington has the build and athleticism of A.J. Green, but he needs to go to finishing school to model this NFL star's game. Photo by Wade Rackley — L’Damien Washington has the build and athleticism of A.J. Green, but he needs to go to finishing school to model this NFL star’s game. Photo by Wade Rackley

The 2014 installment of this series begins with a rough around the edges receiver with the physical talents of A.J. Green and Justin Hunter.

The No Huddle Series is an on-field profile of prospects with the talent to develop into NFL contributors, but they are projected as talents with mid-to-late round draft grades. The 2014 installment of this series begins with Missouri’s L’Damien Washington, a rough around the edges receiver with the physical talents of A.J. Green and Justin Hunter. In the neighborhood of 6’5″, 204 lbs. and a stopwatch speed in the 40 around 4.35-4.4, there’s more to Washington than his Underwear Olympics portfolio that catches my attention.

Washington plays with reckless abandon, contributes on special teams, and despite gaps with his catching technique, he has good hands. If I’m a part of an organization that believes in targeting high-upside players that it can teach the skills to play the position – and knows without reservation that its coaches have the track record of developing said raw lumps of clay – Washington is exactly the type of player I’m targeting.

Athletic Grace And Focus

This touchdown on 1st and goal with 6:30 in the third quarter against Texas A&M is one of the best catches I have seen in college football this year.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kG-tShgiIL0&?start=346w=560&h=315]

It requires watching the replays to get a true feel for how good this catch on the corner fade is. The extension to high-point the ball and get a foot in bounds is impressive, but it’s garden-variety athleticism for a top prospect at the position. What I love is the concentration. Watch cornerback get his hand on the ball just as Washington begins to secure the ball after the initial catch at the high point of the target.

The receiver never loses focus despite the defender forcing Washington to fight to secure the ball. This is something Washington has to do while in mid-turn to shield the ball from his opponent. There are a lot of impressive facets of athleticism, focus, and toughness at play here. The full extension, the hand strength, the turn, the boundary awareness, and even the awareness to wrap the arm around the ball after his bound rebounds off the turf are all displays of skills integration that is difficult to teach. A coach might be able to teach a receiver to each of these things separately, but to layer them into one play and deal with a defender touching the ball at the most vulnerable point of the catch in the process of executing this play is impressive.

Washington’s willingness to lay out for the ball isn’t a one-time display. Here is a 3rd-and-six slant with 2:25 in the half where he faces a cornerback playing tight to the line of scrimmage.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kG-tShgiIL0&start=123w=560&h=315]

The first thing I like about this play is the break on the route. Washington is not a refined route runner at this stage of his career. I often see him raise his pads too soon on releases, which tips off his break, and I don’t see an urgency to his releases that will force a defender to bail deep and set up shorter breaks.

Washington can learn these skills. The athleticism is there and this play reveals a hint of it. Watch him take two small steps up field and explode inside with a hard break. It’s a miniscule part of this quick route, but there’s intensity and precision to the move that he needs to incorporate into other routes.

As the ball arrives, Washington extends his body parallel to the ground and makes a diving catch towards the oncoming safety at the first down marker. Although he traps the ball to his body, his hands make contact with the ball first and he has no fear of contact from the defensive back over top. Once again, you can’t teach a willingness to put your body in harm’s way. It’s something Washington and Green have in common.

This 37-yard gain against man coverage in the Florida game is an example of a decent release that Washington needs to build on. It’s a 1st and 10 play with 8:45 in the third quarter as the single receiver in a 3×1, 10 personnel shotgun set.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIngLBgVge4&?start=292w=420&h=315]

Washington and his quarterback set up a subtle double move on this play. The quarterback takes his drop looking to the trips receiver side as Washington gives a quick shoulder fake to the inside and then accelerates up the sideline. Although it doesn’t seem like much, Washington’s fake is quick and thorough enough to momentarily freeze the defender and it gives the receiver a step.

I like how Washington uses his inside arm to frame and enforce this separation from the trailing defender. The receiver catches the ball over his inside shoulder and turns inside the numbers with a nice dip to avoid the safety. Although he doesn’t break the tackle of the trailing cornerback, he drags the defender another five yards and maintains a grip on the ball as the Florida Gator swats at it relentlessly. Three years from now, Washington probably has an additional 5-10 pounds of muscle that will make this tackle even more difficult for a cornerback to make.

Press-Release Technique

Washington is willing to use his hands against press coverage, but his technique needs more refinement. Right now, it appears as if he doesn’t have a grasp of the variety of moves he can use and when to use them. Here’s a play against Florida where he turns an out into a streak and the play ends with the ball bouncing off his chest near the end line. Although I’ll talk about the end of this play in more detail, the first thing I want you to see is the initial release.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIngLBgVge4&?start=190w=420&h=315]

Watch the replay and you’ll see where Washington’s problems begin. When the defender presents an obstacle during the release, Washington doesn’t use his inside arm to work through the defender. Instead, he uses his right arm to cross over and make contact. This type of move compromises a receiver’s balance, slows his stride, and has no real strength behind it.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to find out that Washington is right-handed and this move is a product of him not having release techniques ingrained into his game. It’s a reaction to the defender and the result is an awkward move that has little impact. In fact, the way Washington earns initial separation is with his left arm as he makes the break outside. But by the time Washington achieves this distance the route is breaking open late, the quarterback is under pressure, and Washington now has to run another route to work open.

This is why it’s so important for a player to have refined technique. Washington is tall, strong, and fast, but if he has to think about what to do rather than have practiced methods that are second-nature reactions, it hinders the execution of a play.

The second half of the play is worth discussing in theory despite the fact that Washington steps on the boundary well before he reaches the end zone on this route adjustment and a penalty would have nullified any catch he could have made. What I don’t like about the end of his play is Washington’s attempt to catch the ball over his shoulder rather than turn back to the ball and make an aggressive attempt to snare the target. It’s possible the velocity of the throw was hard to gauge and Washington makes the wrong call based on this factor, but it’s also a passive attempt to “receive” the ball rather than fight to “catch” it.

When the ball arrives, Washington still has to open his inside shoulder to the trailing defender and this gives the defender a lane to break up the target. If Washington turns to face the ball and tries to highpoint it, he has a better shot on this play. This play isn’t a result of Washington fearing contact, just not having a feel for what to do on the play.

This route against Texas A&M is another demonstration of a talented athlete in need of better release technique. Washington is the single receiver at the right numbers with the cornerback playing tight and with a slight shade to the outside of the receiver on this 2nd and 10 at the A&M 47 with 1:56 in the half.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kG-tShgiIL0&?start=116w=560&h=315]

Washington takes an outside release, but the corner presses the receiver drives Washington too far outside. There’s no chance Washington gets down field in time to make a play on this ball. If the receiver dips his outside shoulder away from the source of the press and drives through his release with the acceleration he’s capable of using, his position will force the defender to relinquish contact or incur a penalty.

Another technique would have been to rip through the contact, but Washington unintentionally sustains the contact. The Missouri receiver is still playing with the mindset that he’s strong enough to push a defender off him with raw strength and hasn’t mastered how to use leverage. This is a college football mindset of a big-time athlete. He needs to learn a professional mindset of winning against opponents who are athletically on a more even playing field.

I for one believe Washington can learn these skills. If he does, he could become a star. I’m talking optimum scenarios here. I think a more reasonable expectation for Washington is for him to develop into a starter in 3-4 years and provide a team 40-60 catches, 600-800 yards, and 5-7 touchdowns as a secondary option that can stretch the field the same way a healthy Sidney Rice does in Seattle.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: Jared Abbrederis vs. Bradley Roby

December 7, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

Was Bradley Roby's performance against Jared Abbrederis (above) a case of rust or a that of a polished receiver winning his routes? Photo by Matt Radickal. — Was Bradley Roby’s performance against Jared Abbrederis (above) a case of rust or a that of a polished receiver winning his routes? Photo by Matt Radickal.

In the case of Bradley Roby vs. Jared Abbrederis was the outcome based on rust or polish? I’ll take polish.

Futures: Jared Abbrederis vs. Bradley Roby

by Matt Waldman

Depending whom you ask, Ohio State cornerback Bradley Roby is one of the top three to five cornerbacks in the 2014 NFL Draft. Draftniks love the 5-foot-11, 193-pound Roby’s speed. CBS projects Roby as a second-round pick who could go higher depending on how close the Buckeye junior’s 40-yard dash time is to the range of 4.35-4.4 seconds.

Although I don’t create rankings until I’ve studied all the skill players I’m going to watch, I wouldn’t be surprised if Wisconsin wide receiver Jared Abbrederis is among the top-15 receivers on my list. CBS projects Abbrederis to be drafted in the second or third-round. Considering that between 2006 and 2013 an average of 32 receivers were taken in the draft – 14 in the first three rounds – that projection has some basis of logic.

However, when Abbrederis, a former walk-on, got the better of Roby this year, I think the resulting analysis from CBS’ draftnik team of Roby had a minor, but important disconnect in logic. Before I go any further, let me say that I have a great deal of respect for Rob Rang and Dane Brugler. They cover a ton of players and do a fantastic job.

My disagreement with one of Rang’s views concerns Roby’s work against Abbrederis this year. Rang attributes the corner’s performance against the receiver to rust:

After sitting out the season opener due to a suspension, the Buckeyes junior showed some rust early in 2013 and struggled mightily against Wisconsin wide receiver Jared Abbrederis, but there is a lot to love about Roby’s game. That includes his speed and fighting attitude, but he needs to stay alert for all four quarters to convince NFL teams he’s worthy of a high first-round grade.

Roby missed one game. Rust shouldn’t be a problem. Rang and his team have Abbrederis ranked 11th on their list of receivers and believe he’s a second or third-round pick. They have Roby as a second-round pick.

If two players with second-round grades square off and one gets the better of the other do you presume that the other lost due to rust? I don’t. I’d only believe rust was a factor if I think the losing player is a much better prospect.

Even if Rang personally has Roby as a high first-round pick and Abbrederis as a third-round pick, is there really that much of a difference that Roby should have shut down the Wisconsin receiver? Only if the phrase “walk-on” still hangs in your subconscious when thinking about Abbrederis.

I have long maintained that there isn’t much of a difference between many first-round talents and undrafted free agents. The perception of players generates a far greater gap among them than reality – especially when the public reads thousands of articles that reinforce a faulty perception like Russell Wilson is too small to become an NFL starter, much less a good one.

While many will expect that Roby will only get better with his technique and this warrants him a higher grade –myself included – is this really a good expectation?

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

LSU WR Jarvis Landry: The Gap Between Mundane and Extraordinary

December 2, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver

Landry makes some awe-inspiring plays, but it's the mundane that he must execute to become a consistent NFL player. — Landry makes some awe-inspiring plays, but it’s the mundane that he must execute to become a consistent NFL player.

Tall, fast, and skilled with the ball in his hands, Jarvis Landry has the physical skills that excites fans and college beat writers about his NFL potential. The LSU receiver is capable of breaking a big play at any moment. Add a quarterback with Zach Mettenberger’s NFL arm strength and the needle on the hype meter kicks into the red.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/-AFSlju1-PQ]

There’s talk that Landry may leave LSU a year early for the NFL draft. It’s a smart, short-term business decision if LSU lacks passing talent behind Mettenberger to showcase Landry’s talent as a senior. However, Landry might do his NFL career a greater service if LSU has the quarterback talent for him to wait a year and refine his skills in Cam Cameron’s offensive system. Quarterback Anthony Jennings might qualify as that type of talent, but Landry might be thinking that a change of quarterbacks as a senior is a risk to his draft status that he doesn’t want to consider if he already earns a strong enough grade from the NFL Draft Advisory Board as a junior.

Landry has a number of fine plays that illustrate his positives. Today’s post is a more critical statement about details and effort. Based on what I’ve seen thus far, Landry doesn’t have any greater issue with these attributes than the average NFL prospect. However, I found two plays against Alabama that could have changed the complexion of this pivotal SEC match-up if Landry showed a different mindset.

Make Every Play Count Because You Don’t Know What Will Happen Next

The cliché “Live every day like it’s your last” could easily be “Make every play like it’s your last” because in this game it could be. I’m not just talking about injury. Whether you throw, catch, carry, snap, kick, or tip it, the shape of the football bedevils everyone.

Here’s a 1st-and-goal run with 9:02 in the first quarter where Landry slants inside to block the Alabama safety. It looks like a decent effort from Landry, but upon further review Landry’s block is the difference between average and good. It’s a play that also has a consequence that might have been avoided.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/sTQ2boEg0LA]

Watch the play on first blush and Landry could earn the characterization as “physical” for throwing his shoulder at the safety. However, it’s not a smart decision. Instead of using his hands to deliver a punch, Landry aims his shoulder into the defender. Although the receiver succeeds with landing the hit on the defender it lacks control, leverage, and technique to sustain contact.

When Landry meets the defender with his shoulder, he’s hitting a defender with equally low pad level and a downhill angle towards the ball carrier. Landry’s hit from an indirect angle bounces off the defender, who isn’t moved off his spot. The defender then makes the tackle on the backing passing through the crease.

If Landry delivers a punch and locks on his hands, he had a better chance to drive the defender away from the crease and the runner has more unimpeded room to run. There’s room for the runner to dip inside his guard’s second level block at the three to earn the score. If not inside the guard, a better block of the safety gives the runner room to make No.13 miss or run through the defender’s hit inside the five.

Landry’s choice of play is the difference between a five-yard gain and a potential touchdown.

Big deal, right? He’s just a receiver. The best teams emphasize these details and expect the highest levels of execution. Mediocre and bad teams often have personnel with the same eye-popping level of talent and skill, but the team is filled with players who don’t perform with consistency of detail and preparation.

This play and these thoughts about execution underscore the belief that we often create our own luck. Landry’s block helps his runner gain five yards, but prevented his runner a chance at reaching the end zone. On the next play, Alabama strips the runner inside the three and recovers the fumble.

Landry doesn’t deserve blame for the runner’s fumble, but his lack of detail – in this case using the optimal technique on the play before – contributes to the next play even happening. It’s why coaches and players often respond to questions about a pivotal play that dashes any final hopes for a victory that it wasn’t one play that lost the game.

Sell the Mundane to Create the Extraordinary – A Lesson For Route Runners

Speaking of pivotal plays at the end of the game, Landry is the target of one on 4th and 13 with 9:17 in the fourth quarter from a 1×3 10 personnel shotgun set. The middle receiver on the trips side of this play, Landry runs a wheel route, which is essentially and out-and-up to the sideline, tricking the defender into taking a hard angle downhill towards the flat and then turning the play up the boundary on a vertical break.

Once again, on first blush it appears quarterback Zach Mettenberger overthrew Landry in the end zone. At the same time, the CB does a great job of edging Landry towards the sideline and making it difficult for the WR to earn separation down field on the break down hill. However, watch the replay that follows this real-time action below.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/o0mSDMrrBSA]

Upon review, Landry creates many of his own problems. In fact, the throw is much more accurate than it appears. The issue is Landry’s initial move. Landry’s first break to the flat is so unconvincing that the defender is anticipating the wheel route from start to finish.

If Landry snapped his turn to the flat after his initial release from the line of scrimmage, turned his head and pads towards the quarterback, dipped his route towards the line of scrimmage to sell the flat route, the Alabama defensive back has no choice but to break towards the receiver.

Landry does none of these things and it allows the corner to maintain good depth while working towards the boundary. When Landry breaks to the sideline, the defender squeezes the receiver tight to the boundary and gives the wide receiver no wiggle room to adjust unless he gives up outside position, dips inside the corner back, and loses pace on a timing throw heading towards the end zone.

Landry is a good prospect, but these two plays – one in the first half and one in the fourth quarter – embody what happens when you don’t execute at the highest level of detail possible.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Boiler Room: Michigan WR Jeremy Gallon

November 25, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Wide Receiver

Can Jeremy Gallon follow in the footsteps of Steve Smith? Similar dimensions, but big shoes . . . Photo by PDA Photo

Footballguys.com Bob Henry is one of the best fantasy writers I know and someone I’m thankful to have as a friend of mine. We became fast friends after sharing our love for the old AFC Central; Funk, Soul, and R&B music; and all the varieties of Asian cuisine.

Bob – a huge Michigan fan – is my unofficial area scout for the Big Ten. At points throughout the season, he sends me word of players he likes and we compare notes in January. One of his mentions this year is Wolverine receiver Jeremy Gallon – a player whose style he likened to Carolina Panthers leader Steve Smith.

Listed at 5’8″, 183 lbs., Gallon matches Smith’s physical dimensions, but he has a stretch of road ahead of him as difficult as Russia’s Trans-Siberian Highway if he hopes to be mentioned in the same breath as the 13-year NFL veteran. Still, I think Gallon plays bigger than his size and has a flair for the dramatic on the field.

A series that I started last spring at the RSP blog is The Boiler Room. One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play. Yet, if I need a play to add to the highlight reel that will help a team make a decision where to slot Jeremy Gallon on its board, this 62-yard touchdown is my nomination. This is a 1st-and-10 with 6:00 in the first quarter from a 12 personnel weak side twin receiver set. Gallon is at the right hash stacked behind his teammate. Notre Dame has one safety deep on this play.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/deiN203Dx1s]

Gallon runs up the right hash on a seam route and then sits in the middle of a wide open zone 15 yards past the line of scrimmage. He catches the ball close to his body and turns inside the hash with the nearest defender five yards behind him. The next closest defender to Gallon is 10 yards over top and outside the right hash.

Gallon gains 10 yards up the middle through a huge hole, jukes outside the defender at the left hash and then stumbles towards the safety over top just as the defender he juked outside wraps the receiver at the waist. Here’s where Gallon displays the kind of balance that hints at Steve Smith’s game. He spins inside the safety, shakes the defender wrapping him, and then makes the safety miss all at the same time. The Wolverines receiver then dips inside a second safety.

Within a snap of the fingers, Gallon has beaten three defenders and regains his balance as he runs towards the right hash. By the time he accelerates past a fourth defender, Gallon is in the clear for the final 20 yards to the end zone.

Gallon runs like a kick return specialist and this is a job he can compete for immediately in the NFL. The receiver displays a strong downhill mentality in the open field and doesn’t waste motion or slow his pace trying to make defenders miss like so many quick-twitch, agile receivers. His move to avoid three defenders was not a display of power; it was excellent balance to maintain his footing, spin through contact to limit the impact, and terrific protection of the football under his left arm.

We know he has the athleticism to get deep in single coverage, but I like that Gallon is so quick to find the open zone in the middle of the field. He may never become Steve Smith, but if he can demonstrate the smarts to match his toughness and athleticism, he might become a dynamite NFL slot receiver in a league. At worst, I think he’s a more explosive player in the mold of Harry Douglas or Doug Baldwin.

Futures at Football Outsiders: FSU DB Lamarcus Joyner

November 23, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players

Tyrann Mathieu might inspire an NFL team to consider Lamarcus Joyner in a similar role. Photo by wxcasterphx.

If Tryann Mathieu’s play officially announces the arrival of a new breed of safety, Lamarcus Joyner’s use in the NFL may become the next step in the evolution of the position.

In 1998, Peter King penned a feature for Sports Illustrated where he crowned the position of NFL quarterback as “The Toughest Job In Sports”. King delivered a convincing assessment that served as the media’s coronation of the quarterback as sports royalty. Anyone who watched pro football between 1960 and 1999 will have little argument that King was right. But times have changed.

In 1999, the NFL instituted the Tuck Rule after the fateful play involvingTom Brady and Charles Woodson that decided the AFC Championship game. In 2004, the league increased enforcement of the illegal contact rule after Bill Belichick’s strategy to manhandle Colts wide receivers at the line of scrimmage limited Indianapolis’ offense to a lowly 14 points and ruined a greatly anticipated shootout between Brady and Peyton Manning in the 2003 conference championship.

And in 2008, pro football modified its “below the knee” rule after a Week 1 season ending hit on Brady subverted the most exciting offense in football. It has now made the defensive secondary the second-class citizens of NFL positions.

Compared to the quarterbacks King wrote about in 1998 – not to mention the decades of signal callers who undoubtedly inspired King to write about the position – today’s signal callers are A-list sports celebrities with silver spoons in their mouths. They are the precious investments of the NFL’s high-scoring, highly profitable brand that inspires year-round coverage and a thriving fantasy sports industry.

(Just a quick tangent for those who care more about the quality and fairness of the game over its branding: One way to give defenses more equal footing in today’s game would be to alter or repeal the illegal contact rule and enforce pass interference violations with a 15-yard penalty and automatic first down rather than making it a spot foul.)

Despite the NFL creating a class system on the playing field, quarterback remains the most technically complex position to master in sport – especially now that it has to be a PR-savvy role within the organization, adding to its difficulty. However, when confining the difficulty of the position to the field of play, the position of safety now gives quarterback a run for its money.

Safeties have to be as versatile athletes as move tight ends. They have to cover the deep and intermediate zones from sideline to sideline with excellent range.

Whether it’s an undersized, water bug of a slot receiver or a power forward posing as a tight end, the safety has to display the athleticism to handle both. And not only do these defenders still have to play the run like a fourth or fifth linebacker and blitz the quarterback, but they also have to do it all in a league where the rules governing the primary role of their position have been engineered against their productivity and the enforcement process has become arbitrary.

The NFL quarterback is the blue blood of the playing field. He’s a lot like the senator’s son who goes from intern to COO to commissioner of a sports empire. In contrast, the NFL safety is kid from the wrong side of the railroad tracks. On appearances alone, the idea of a 5’8” safety is not only an underdog within the hierarchy of the league, he’s beneath the underdog.

But there’s some Darwinism at play in the wilds of that 6400-square yards of turf and no matter how much football convention tries to squash individuality, it never succeeds in doing so. If anything, it creates new opportunities for individuality to make a game changing impact. Upon deeper examination, it’s possible that the smaller, quicker, scat-back-sized safety might be the next new answer to counter the dominance of the forward pass.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

NFL Closeup: Safety Tyrann Mathieu And Economy of Motion

November 12, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Mathieu has a chance to be one of the impact performers as a safety/corner hybrid. Photo by wxcasterphx. — Mathieu has become an impact performer as a safety/corner hybrid. Photo by wxcasterphx.

Cardinals safety Tyrann Mathieu is playing his tail off and the biggest reason this rookie has made the jump from LSU to the NFL with a year away from football in between is his mental command of the game. Mathieu is an incisive player and it’s easy to see this quality on the field. Here are two plays against the Texans – notably Andre Johnson and Ben Tate – where Mathieu demonstrates multiple skills with no wasted motion.

in·ci·sive inˈsīsiv/ adjective 1. (of a person or mental process) intelligently analytical and clear-thinking.

A common characteristic that most good football players share is the economy of motion. Be it a streamline route with a sudden, sharp break; a hard plant and cut without a gather step; or a quick release of the football, efficient technique helps a player gain an edge over his opponent. This especially true for defensive players.

Mathieu’s read and react skills are on fine display as the slot defender paired with Andre Johnson as his obstacle to runner Ben Tate. Mathieu begins the play shading the receiver’s inside, but watch how this changes as the play develops.

When the Texans snap the ball and Case Keenum makes the exchange with Tate, Mathieu takes the outside. One reason is to anticipate any short, outside-breaking routes if this exchange is actually a play fake. Since Mathieu also has a shallower position as the slot man, his move outside also gives him a chance to funnel Johnson inside where there’s a greater chance for help to arrive if the receiver runs a vertical route and beats the rookie.

Assuming this is a running play, Mathieu’s initial work to the outside is to maintain gap responsibility at the edge so he can keep Tate away from the sideline and funnel the runner insider where there’s additional help. At this point, Mathieu is waiting for Tate to make a choice to run inside or outside the Texan’s right tackle.

When Tate chooses the inside path based on the direction of the right tackle’s block, Mathieu makes a swift turn inside and extends his arms towards Johnson. Although not as easy to see how fluid Mathieu is with still photographs, there’s value in seeing how the defensive back uses his arms to beat Johnson inside with swat of the receiver’s arms similar to a wide receiver beating the jam at the line of scrimmage.

As soon as Mathieu gets inside Johnson, he breaks down into a stance square to the ball carrier, which will enable the defensive back to explode through the ball carrier. Tate is a step beyond the line of scrimmage with enough help around him to earn at least 7-10 yards if he can avoid Mathieu. At this vantage point, Tate appears to have enough space to set up Mathieu. However, it Mathieu demonstrates that three yards of space isn’t enough.

Mathieu is patient enough to maintain his position as Tate takes another step. Mathieu’s angle forces Tate to consider a bounce outside and once a safety can get a big back working east west, it’s an advantage for the defense. When Mathieu shoots for Tate’s legs, he explodes through the runner’s body and raises his right forearm as high as possible to force the runner off his feet.

There’s no chance Tate will maintain his balance with a balance-touch plant of the inside arm after this hit. From the snap through the tackle, Mathieu displays no wasted motion; every movement has a purpose for each contingency of the play. Well done.

Mathieu demonstrates the same incisive skill to diagnose the run on this play in the second quarter. Not only does Mathieu split two blockers in the process of making the tackle, but his understanding of angles as a tackler is also on display here. Mathieu is once again the slot defender matched with Johnson on a run to this twin receiver side. Also note that outside receiver DeAndre Hopkins will work towards Mathieu on this play. Whether Tate bounces this play to the sideline or cuts underneath, Hopkins or Johnson will – in theory – work off a double-team of Mathieu to the cornerback outside, depending on their position on the field.

From the beginning, Mathieu has his eyes glued to the Tate. At the snap, Mathieu takes two steps backwards and maintains his back to the sideline to keep Johnson inside or to account for the possibility of Johnson breaking outside and Hopkins slanting inside. Mathieu’s position allows he and the corner to be in position to pick up either receiver depending on the route combination they run if this was a play action pass. Once it’s decidedly run, Mathieu works downhill.

Johnson peels outside to address Mathieu, but the defensive back has his pads square and he’s ready to split Johnson and Hopkins. As you’ll see in the next few frames, this a decisive move rooted in an understanding of where he needs to be to force Tate inside. This is an aspect of defense that some folks forget: The first responsibility is to play team defense and defend a position rather than just make the tackle.

Much like a running back who bounces a play outside to go for the big play at the risk of losing yards when he should earn a tough (and seemingly uninspiring) 2-3 yards and keep his offensive on schedule, a defender who freelances too often can expose a great deal of open field to a runner if he fails to make the play. When a defender plays within the structure of the defense, he might miss the tackle, but still force the ball carrier towards his teammates who will finish the play.

Mathieu’s angle is all about defending the edge first and then making the tackle and that’s how it should be.

The rookie defender extends both arms to swat past Johnson and Hopkins as he drives downhill towards Tate, who has earned the edge at the line of scrimmage. Within the next two steps, Mathieu’s decisive course influences Tate to work downhill.

If Tate bounces his play towards the sideline, he’ll be moving east west and Mathieu the Texans’ back to boundary or cut the runner for a minimal gain. If Mathieu misses this tackle on Tate, Daryl Washington is just inside the left hash to clean this up. If not Washington, then No.25 Jerraud Powers.

Mathieu breaks down so he can attempt the tackle. Note the angle Mathieu takes inside. He’s anticipating where Tate will be and not shooting for where Tate is. This sounds like common sense, but after splitting two receivers, the quick thinking to process this angle is impressive.

Mathieu wraps Tate at the ankle and the runner is dropped after a six-yard gain. It’s a nice play for the Texans, but Mathieu’s support prevents Tate from earning a first down. It’s this awareness where he should be and the confidence to react fast that has helped Mathieu become one of the top first-year defenders in the game.

For more analysis of offensive skill players like this post, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio available April 1. Prepayment is available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2013 RSP at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures at Football Outsiders: UCLA RB Malcolm Jones

November 9, 2013 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Futures: Buy One, Get Three Free?

by Matt Waldman

“Fit” is a recurring theme in this year’s Futures. Talent plus fit can create a superstar. The stories about LaRoi Glover and John Randle’s career births are prominent examples. Drew Brees was a Pro Bowl performer in San Diego, but his fit with Sean Payton in New Orleans helped Brees -– and the team –- play at the highest level attainable.

But talent minus fit is a recipe for failure. Who’s to say that Brees’ career wouldn’t have washed out if he landed in Miami? Take one look at Nick Saban’s offensive proclivities and it’s not a stretch to say that Brees would have been a glorified game manager.

Because Saban and the Dolphins used Brees’ injury as a bargaining chip and failed, the Saints are now fortunate to have an innovative offense that uses Brees’ mobility to open passing lanes. Brees will now be forever known as one of the most dangerous vertical assassins in the game without ever having a star vertical threat like Randy Moss,Calvin Johnson, or even Isaac Bruce.

Fit is why we’ve been so elated and disappointed with Robert Griffinthe past two years. Washington’s coaching staff did a great job retrofitting Griffin’s skills to its existing offensive personnel last year. The result was a dangerous offense built on simple concepts that were hard to defend. A year later and an injury still on the mend, and we’re seeing the consequences of an imperfect fit.

Just last week I made the point that if Ray Rice was on Andy Reid’s incarnation of the Eagles the offense could keep rolling with minor adjustments, but it wouldn’t be the same in Baltimore if the Ravens stuck Brian Westbrook in its system. We sometimes think of players as cogs in a machine. Even if there’s truth to that notion, not all components have the same properties or fit the exact same way.

The safe method of finding talent that fits a team is to look in all the obvious places: starters at big-time programs; players with consistent production; and athletes with some combination of eye-popping height, weight, strength, and speed. Find enough of these characteristics in one player and the perceived risks to invest vast sums of money in him is lower than other prospects with a limited supply of these resume bullet points.

However, the greatest advantages often come with the most startling discoveries. In football, it’s often players who are exceptions to the rule. They can elevate a team’s standing.

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A Prayer for Sammy Watkins

November 7, 2013 0 Comments read Players, Wide Receiver

Watkins has the upside to lap the field of some fine receiver prospects when it comes to NFL potential. Photo by PDA.Photo.

When I watch the Clemson receiver, I find myself in a mode of prayerful thought. I know it’s probably wrong to ask for something this selfish, but I want a player like Watkins on my team and if I have to resort to the good entity upstairs, well . . . that’s what crazy fans do, right?

Dear Lord,

Thank you for my health, my family, my job, and the strength and whatever wisdom I’ve gleaned to live each day. I don’t like to bother you with trivial things because I imagine you have far weightier concerns about what’s going on down here like all the wars we’re fighting, child slavery, famine, and corruption. Of course, this could all be some sort of divine machination like some philosophers believe and it’s all part of a grand plan.

If that’s the case I might just be wasting my time fretting to you about it. If they’re wrong, however, I’d like to make a miniscule request that, if it fits within the rhythm of the universe and doesn’t cause harm to anyone – perhaps with the exception of emotional damage to 49ers fans – I’m hoping you’ll make so:

Would you please have the Seattle Seahawks draft Sammy Watkins?

How tempting it is for me to make this a legitimate prayer. I find myself thinking it the more I watch Watkins – especially last night when I took in the Clemson-Florida State debacle. Devonta Freeman was impressive, Rashad Greene was scintillating, and Jameis Winston has been spectacular, but hands-down Watkins is the best wide receiver prospect in this draft class if he comes out.

I know some of you Pac-10 wonks will shout the refrain of Marqise Lee. You already have several times and I know there’s no medicine for your SoCal Tourette Syndrome. I agree that Lee is a good one But if Watkins is alongside Lee, I’m taking the Clemson Tiger in every scenario.

Catch Radius-Hands

[youtube=http://youtu.be/LvzmKM7cdeI]

This is a simple concept – a short cross – but the execution is far more demanding thanks to Tajh Boyd’s errant throw and Watkins’ underrated catch. A throw that’s low and away while on the run is one of the more difficult adjustments to make on a target. Watkins makes it look routine. Watch enough NFL games and this is the type of play that the average veteran in a starting lineup makes.

Then look at the presence of mind to get the pads downhill and make a beeline for the first down marker. Although we’ve seen Watkins make his share of defenders miss, he’s far more consistent at knowing when to dispense with the bells and whistles of agility and handle the primary job of earning the first down.

Here’s another underrated demonstration of catch radius on a slant for a touchdown – a play where a majority of NFL players in this situation drop the ball. Even top prospects entering the league drop this pass and get fans questioning whether the player really is all that good. Then, when they make the play the next week-month-year fans promptly forget that the capability was there all long. Watkins will likely be one of those players.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/iIEGWBcvHbQ]

Once again, an errant throw from Boyd (see a pattern) and Watkins has to lean the opposite direction of his break to extend his arms for the ball, make the catch, and hit the ground after contact. The consistent technique to extend his arms and catch the ball with his hands earns Watkins second chances in situations like the one above.

Route Depth and Boundary Awareness

These are two things that Watkins – once he gets acclimated to the advanced level of the NFL game – will make him a primary receiver for an offense. Watch this third-down play and note how he breaks to the quarterback, maintains good route depth, and makes the catch with great technique despite a defender draped on his back.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/YtivJhrJARM]

Moreover, look at Watkins drag his feet. The receiver’s ability to integrate all of these skills into one play is an indication that Watkins has ingrained many of these techniques into his game with hard work. This is advanced receiving. Watkins is a receiver I expect to have a productive rookie year.

Physicality

This block is hard to see and it’s a play that catches the cornerback by surprise. Still, I love Watkins’ hustle.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/xIGgl-8IJN4]

It’s a great punch with good location and away from the flow of the play. It’s one of several small indications that I’ve shown that Watkins not only likes to play the game he likes to work at it. Combine that with great athleticism and natural gifts and just imagine the versatility the Seahawks would have with Percy Harvin, Golden Tate, and Sammy Watkins.

It probably won’t happen, but a man can hope, right? What I do know is that the team that gets Watkins will have some major prayers answered.

Futures at Football Outsiders: Baylor RB Lache Seastrunk

November 2, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Running Back

This shot begins one of my favorite runs of the year, painted courtesy of Baylor's Lache Seastrunk. — This shot begins one of my favorite runs of the year, painted courtesy of Baylor’s Lache Seastrunk.

Futures: Baylor RB Lache Seastrunk

by Matt Waldman

There’s no position I enjoy watching more than running back. One of the reasons I love studying the position is that relative to other roles on the field, there’s a tremendous amount of diversity among players that can excel at the job.

No other position in football has such a wide range of acceptable physical dimensions. There was a time when Brandon Jacobs weighed 87 pounds more than Warrick Dunn. Both players sport multiple 1000-yard seasons. Adrian Peterson is almost a half-foot taller than Frank Gore, but they are about same weight and inspire similar frustration among opposing defenders.

Watch Peterson, Herschel Walker, and Bo Jackson and they seem chiseled from ebony. By comparison, Jerome Bettis and Craig “Ironhead: Heyward were amorphous lumps of clay. None were a joy to tackle.

Cleveland’s 6-foot-2, 232-pound fullback Jim Brown and Chicago’s 5-foot-10, 200-pound Walter Payton are far apart on the dimension spectrum of running backs, but is there any separation between them when it came to dying hard on every play? For that matter, is there anyone else even close?

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Futures: UNC TE Eric Ebron

October 26, 2013 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Tight End

UNC TE Eric Ebron fits in a comparison spectrum with Vernon Davis as the pinnacle. Photo by The Bay Area Bias.

Futures: UNC TE Eric Ebron

by Matt Waldman

Eric Ebron is the hot name among the NFL Draft media, but the University of North Carolina tight end isn’t some flash fire that ignited at Chapel Hill in mid-October. The Tar Heel has been ablaze for two seasons –- make it three if you count a searing 20.7 yards per catch average on 10 receptions as a freshman. Tyler Eifert, many a draftnik’s top tight end prospect in 2013’s class, is a moderate bush fire by comparison.

NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks wrote about Ebron this week. He invokedJimmy Graham and Antonio Gates as impact players who Ebron could rival one day if the junior declares for the 2014 NFL Draft. There’s a lot of heft to that statement.

Brooks displayed the restraint not to compare Ebron’s skills directly to Graham and Gates. Such a comparison would be like linking Steve Wonder to Neil Young — both are fine singer-songwriters with instrumental talents, but their styles are too disparate for a fine comparison.

Player comparisons are a problematic exercise. The intent is to provide a functional short hand. Do it well and the comparison can evoke layers of nuanced analysis of physical build, strengths, weaknesses, playing style, and schematic fit. Do it poorly and the end result can be one-dimensional. Worse, display a lack of sophisticated study and you can even have unintentional racial overtones.

I believe a better way to create player comparisons is to add more dimensions to the exercise. It’s far from a perfect method, but it does help me evoke multiple images of players that illustrate layers of analysis you don’t get with just one player.

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