Posts tagged 2014 RSP

Reads Listens Views: 10/18/2013

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Case Keenum reminds Wade Phillips of Tony Romo. Photo by Football Schedule.
Case Keenum reminds Wade Phillips of Tony Romo. Photo by Football Schedule.
This week’s RLVs includes a sample report on former Houston Cougars’ QB Case Keenum, who will be starting for the Texans this weekend. The rest of RLV? Your normal fare of stuff on my reading, listening, and viewing list, which of course is anything but normal. 

RSP Sample: Texans’ New Starting QB Case Keenum

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Keenum was my No.14 QB in the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Here is what I wrote about the former Houston Cougar who Wade Phillips believe has the potential to achieve career heights similar to Tony Romo. At the end of this profile is a sample report on Keenum.

14. Case Keenum, Houston (6-0, 208) – Keenum has a quick, over the top release. He’s an anticipation thrower and not as likely to gun the ball into tight spaces from difficult angles or distances. He’s an effective down field thrower of the football because of this anticipation and his touch. He places good arc on throws and has a knack for dropping the ball over his receiver’s shoulder in tight coverage.

Keenum can throw the ball more than 40 yards down field, but he didn’t demonstrate the ability to drive the ball with power on deeper routes. When he doesn’t throw the ball with good anticipation, his high arcing passes can get him into trouble on deeper routes because he brings coverage back into the play and creates unnecessary jump-ball situations. I think the extent of his range is probably 45 yards.

I’m also uncertain about his ability to drive the ball on intermediate routes, which will be important for him to make plays against defenses that force him from the pocket or paint him into a corner. He sees the field well enough to find receivers in a reasonably crowded pocket and he can throw the ball off his back foot and from different angles. He throws well moving to his right.

However, Keenum was frequently too aggressive on plays where he should have either thrown the ball away, tried to elude pressure, or tuck the ball and run. He had a few throws that he put up for grabs. It was as if his answer every time he was pressured was to throw the ball at least 15 yards down field and usually 40.

His play action game needs work and he was under center only once in the game I scored. The big questions are whether he can execute a pro style game from center, make the requisite power throws, and learn to make better decisions with the football under pressure. I don’t think the NFL is going to give him a chance, but of the quarterbacks I studied, he flashes enough skill to earn a spot late on this list and at least a camp invite.

Sample Play-by-Play Report of Case Keenum

Views – Now This is a Bird’s Eye View!

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Views – What Would Bob Harris Do?

Yep, that’s the shark move. Boy, I kill myself sometimes . . .

Football Reads

Views – Arkansas RB: “We’re gonna need a bigger boat”

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Great call from The Big Lead on the (unfortunate) uncommon sense that Jadeveon Clowney’s draft stock hasn’t moved a millimeter. He just pushed three-fifths of the Razorbacks’ offensive line into the backfield on a run play, Only major off-field issues would keep me from drafting him in the top-three overall in 2014.

Views – Funny/True: A Lobbyist And a Senator Walk Into a Restaurant

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Non-Football Reads

Listens – Ornette Coleman (Light Stretching for the MInd/Soul)

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Thanks for reading and stay tuned tomorrow for my take on Arizona State defensive tackle Will Sutton in my Futures column at Football Outsiders.

Futures: Florida State WR Rashad Greene

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Matt Waldman
When I watch FSU WR Rashad Greene, I see shades of Desean Jackson's game. Photo by Avinashkunnath.
When I watch FSU WR Rashad Greene, I see shades of Desean Jackson’s game. Photo by Avinashkunnath.

Futures: Florida State WR Rashad Greene

By Matt Waldman

When it comes to workouts, interviews, and background investigations, I have nothing on the NFL. I’m just like everyone else; I’m waiting to hear the outcomes of whatever the league shares with the public. But after speaking with former and current scouts, I can say with confidence that the NFL has nothing on me when it comes to my process for evaluating on-field performance.

It sounds a lot like I’m saying that I know more about football than NFL scouts and front offices, but what I mean is that I believe I have a process that does a better job of helping an evaluator structure his thinking and get out of his own way. I’ve seen scouting reports from the National Scouting Service as well as reports form NFL teams. Based on the structure of their reporting, many teams don’t realize that their methodology often gets in the way of their collective knowledge.

They don’t have a written working definition for every positional technique they observe. They don’t possess a weighted score assigned to each. And they don’t categorize and define the level of difficulty to improve skills as a player transitions to the NFL.

I know of an NFL player-personnel man borrowing some of my ideas to incorporate into his team’s scouting processes. This is because the things I described eliminate some of the inherent variation that exists among scouts and management. But this type of change in thinking is a slow sell compared to upgrading technology that allows them to do the same things they’ve been doing for 50 years – only with greater speed and convenience.

While I believe my process is a good start towards a consistent approach when evaluating players, at the end of the day there’s no denying that scouting talent is a subjective process. Subjectivity can be a bad word – especially for a site like Football Outsiders, which strives to use data to arrive at insights that provide a counterpoint to fallacies stemming from what we observe on a qualitative level. However, I doubt anyone writing for this site would say all subjective analysis is bad.

I believe in the power of intuition. Some of you who lean hard on black and white thinking may be turned off to that idea. The idea that intuition is a bodily indicator based on factors we cannot fully explain (yet) is hogwash. I can’t help you there – you feel similar about it or you don’t.

When I evaluate a player and his performance evokes a feeling that I attribute to intuition, I accept that feeling. It doesn’t mean that I ignore my scouting process or change my outcomes, but I have learned to pay attention to those emotions.

Sometimes what resonates when I watch a player is something that is a part of my everyday life: I’m a magnet for the troubled. I’ve learned how to see it coming in life, but in football, I am still learning that many players I have a strong feeling about are prospects carrying a lot of off-field baggage that bleeds into their professional lives.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders.

Reads Listens Views 10/11/13

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Listens I

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Football Reads

Listens II

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Non-Football Reads

Listens III 

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Views/Commentary – Pro Football Players By Place of Birth (Chart by Atlantic Cities)

This map is part of an article about Malcolm Gladwell’s assessment that football will become “ghettoized” and middle class families will discourage their kids from playing the sport.  I’m stunned about the fuss made over this assertion; just follow the trail of money and it’s clear this is already happening. Academic critics of college football have long pointed to its exploitative social hierarchy before investigative reporters delved into the subject. University of Georgia professor Billy Hawkins published a book about it in 2000, “The New Plantation: The Internal Colonization of Black Student Athletes“. You can read highlights here.

Another trail of money is the funds the NFL has spent to shift its public relations strategy from the gladiatorial days of selling NFL Films’ Greatest Hits to heavy rotation of a kinder-gentler-safer Heads-Up PR campaign aimed towards parents of young children who are thinking twice about allowing their kids to play the sport.  And of course, the most obvious money trail is the legal expense to head a court case off at the pass in order to slow the decline of the game.

Slow decline might be the best way to describe of the future of the NFL. The league got into bed with prime time television in 1970 when Monday Night Football was born and this was really the beginning of the NFL’s ascent into the mass media consciousness. If 1970 was the birth of the NFL’s Golden Age, its childhood and adolescence were the 80s and 90s. Cable television (ESPN), music videos (MTV – Chicago Bears), VHS and DVD (NFL Films) all made the game more marketable.

It means the past 15 years have arguably been the NFL in its prime: record revenues, no labor issues impacting the regular season, the huge television contracts, coverage of the NFL Draft and Combine, and even a 24/7 broadcast network run by the league. Throw in the NFL smartly commoditizing digital technology – streaming coach’s film, quick-editing of cutups, fantasy sports, and adopting media aggregation and social media to enhance coverage and education of the game – and this decade has truly been the zenith of the league’s popularity.

But with what we know about the physical toll of the game and the challenges to create technology to prevent it, I’m skeptical the game will ever be as popular as it is this decade. I hope the game evolves and remains a compelling physical, strategic, and spiritual challenge as it increases its safety, but I’m not counting on the game increasing its popularity.

I’m counting on Malcolm Gladwell being more right than wrong.

You see that dot northeast of Atlanta? That’s my hometown of Athens, Georgia,  a city renown for the Bulldogs and its music scene. Walk through the gorgeous red-brick, Georgian architecture of the first chartered university in the U.S. and then across the street to the shops and sidewalk tables of restaurants and cafes downtown and the city sells the dream well. Throw in the fact that the hospital is top-notch and the vet school, law school, and business school are pretty good, and it’s a great place for people who have the means to live somewhat segregated from reality.

But there’s a lot more to Athens that these people don’t have to see. According to the U.S. Census Bureau,  Athens had the third-highest wealth gap in the United States. There as much or more public housing per square mile in the Classic City than anywhere in the southeastern United States. One analysis claims Athens is only safer than 10 percent of the cities in the United States. Police departments from neighboring counties have often been accused of “dumping” their homeless to town.

I’ve lived in Athens for 19 of the past 20 years. They hide the poverty well from the tourists and alumni, but its here.  It’s worse now that the yuppies and educators who supported the public schools in the 1980s fled to the neighboring Oconee county where they could enjoy the service economy of Athens, but not have to make the effort to maintain a quality school system after the blue collar jobs left and their kids graduated. The graduation rate for the city high schools is 55 percent.  Rather than promote birth control in the schools, the town preferred to promote abstinence and build a daycare in one of its schools.

Football is a religion here. I know you folks in the Big 10 and Big 12 think you understand, but trust me when I tell you it’s a different level of intensity. I’m not talking about on the field, but the culture of the alumni and fans. Combine that with a gap between rich and poor, black and white, and an SEC institution with one of the largest and most successful athletic departments in the country and I’m not the least bit shocked where football has been heading and why the NFL is trying to turn the tide.

There’s a lot I love about the town, but I’m not going to pretend it’s something that it’s not. If you’re poor and matriculate through this public school system, there’s a good chance that big-time sports is a lottery ticket out of a cycle of poverty that this local economy cannot fix.  Football is a way out. It’s one of the only ways out.

Just look at the map and you’ll see why Gladwell makes a compelling point. It’s easier to watch people you don’t have to truly care about wreck themselves. Especially when you can’t hide from the risks any longer. Uncomfortable things to consider if you’re a fan, but if you really want to claim you care about the game it’s time to take an unflinching look at its problems.

I don’t know what to do about it, but communication and awareness is the first step.

Thanks – Check out my Football Outsiders Futures column on Saturday. I’m profiling one of my favorite players in this 2014 NFL Draft class. Also, learn why I have no problem incorporate intuition into the evaluation process. 

Boiler Room: Florida State RB James Wilder

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Running Back
Running backs are like motorcyclists, eventually they'll lay it down and have trouble walking away from it. Photo by Kyn_Chung.
Running backs are like motorcyclists, eventually they’ll lay it down and have trouble walking away from it. Photo by Kyn_Chung.

I remember James Wilder, Sr.  A 6’3″, 225-pound wrecking ball where he had two seasons in Tampa Bay with a combined 772 carries for 2844 yards and 23 touchdowns, Wilder is the best running back in Buccaneers history if you ask me.  One of those years, Wilder had 407 carries, 1544 yards rushing, 13 rushing touchdowns and 85 receptions for 685 yards for an 8.1 yards per catch average.

In case you didn’t do the math, that’s 492 touches for 2229 yards from scrimmage – that’s the 16th best yards from scrimmage total in the history of the NFL and the most touches by a player large margin:

NFL Single-Season Touches Leaders – Courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com

Rank Player (age), + – HOFer, Bold – Active Touch Year Teams
1. James Wilder (26) 492 1984 TAM
2. Larry Johnson (27) 457 2006 KAN
3. Eddie George (27) 453 2000 TEN
4. LaDainian Tomlinson (23) 451 2002 SDG
5. Edgerrin James (22) 450 2000 IND
6. Marcus Allen+ (25) 447 1985 RAI
7. Ricky Williams (26) 442 2003 MIA
8. Eric Dickerson+ (23) 441 1983 RAM
9. Emmitt Smith+ (26) 439 1995 DAL
10. Jamal Anderson (26) 437 1998 ATL
11. Steven Jackson (23) 436 2006 STL
12. Emmitt Smith+ (23) 432 1992 DAL
13. Edgerrin James (21) 431 1999 IND
14. Eric Dickerson+ (26) 430 1986 RAM
Ricky Williams (25) 430 2002 MIA
Gerald Riggs (25) 430 1985 ATL
17. Walter Payton+ (30) 426 1984 CHI
Barry Foster (24) 426 1992 PIT
19. Eric Dickerson+ (28) 424 1988 IND
20. Deuce McAllister (25) 420 2003 NOR

In addition to these season marks, Wilder once toted the ball a record 48 times in a single game (and 47 in another contest a year later – good for second on the all-time list). We’re talking about a tough football player in an era of running the football that we’re only given reminders of nowadays.

I think this is important to share, because if the Matthews family has a potential genetic predisposition for athletic longevity in a punishing sport; the Long family breeds linemen; the Manning family farms quarterbacks; and the Winslow family produces tight ends, then 6’1″, 229-pound James Wilder, Jr. has a chance to be a damn good pro running back. Wilder runs a lot like his dad, but there’s an added degree of recklessness that could be a double-edged sword for the young man with an old-school style and it leaves me conflicted about his future.

A series I started last spring at the RSP blog is The Boiler Room. One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play. Yet, if I need a play to add to the highlight reel that will help a team make a decision where to slot Wilder, Jr. on its board, this is my nomination – not because it’s the most impressive play as much as it’s a telling indication of the player in terms of that double-edged sword. This is a run from a 20 personnel shotgun formation inside the Wake Forest red zone with 6:48 in the first half. The next 24 seconds, which includes a replay is a display of strength, agility, recklessness, and flexibility that leaves me ambivalent about Wilder, Jr.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULXz1le2tlU&?start=44w=560&h=315]

This hurdle of the defender is different from what you’ve seen from the likes of Brian Leonard, Knowshown Moreno, and LeGarrette Blount in recent years. Those three backs were known for these plays in the second and third levels of the defense. The hurdling these three backs demonstrated as collegians were prettier plays.

However, this hurdle from Wilder comes within two steps of turning down hill through the hole! While the Russian and Chinese judges would mark him down on form,  they’d begrudgingly own him top marks on technical difficulty. This is a nine-yard gain with six coming after the hurdle.

What impresses me most on this play is what we see on the replay. Notice how flexible Wilder is in his legs and hips to rotate his lower body this dramatically. Then there’s the strength to maintain balance at this awkward of a landing point. This is a balls-out, reckless, and fearless run where one can see the old-school influence of watching his father.

However like his father – and most old-school runners – Wilder has admitted to playing with numbness in his shoulder after laying the wood on defenders. He has that “slap some dirt on it” mentality that  teammates and coaches love as long as he can go out there and produce. Shoulder injuries and ball carrying go together like shrimp and grits, so I wouldn’t be alarmed about Wilder’s admission.

In the NFL and the NFL media’s hyper-analytic draft environment, medical reports might be a driver in Wilder’s draft stock. Just like Eddie Lacy’s stock fell at least two rounds further than anticipated at least due in part to a toe injury, Wilder’s shoulder may earn some extra scrutiny – especially aggravating the wound in September that hindered him throughout 2012.

Watch the play again and think about his disregard for his body. For a long, lanky, and punishing back, I can see some reasons for concern. At the same time, I love watching him at his best. Here’s a taste of Wilder in the second and third level of the Clemson defense – yes, this is highlight No.2, but I’m a sucker for punishing, determined runners.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULXz1le2tlU&?start=345w=560&h=315]

Again, note the balance and strength of his legs to take a hit that moves his body so his legs plant at an awkward position and he stays upright. While impressive, I just can’t shake the feeling that there’s too great of a tendency for awkward footing and landings that won’t end well. My younger brother, who is a licensed pilot will tell you than any landing you can walk away from is a good landing. However, I’m reminded more of the adage among motorcyclists: It’s not if you’ll lay the bike down, but when.

Running backs are in this respect like stunt bikers. Eventually they’re going to lay it down in a way that they’ll have trouble walking away from the crash. I love Wilder’s battering ram determination, flexibility, and balance. Especially his flexibility. Here’s highlight No.3.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULXz1le2tlU&?start=563w=560&h=315]

That’s a Reggie Bush-like extension without a long, downhill start and doing it while carrying an extra 20 pounds. I smile every time I watch Wilder as a lead blocker making diving plays to upend defenders for his quarterback or backfield teammates. He’s a tough football player. However, I don’t get the same feeling of reckless longevity when I watch Wilder the way I do when I watch Adrian Peterson or Walter Payton or even Wilder, Sr.

I hope I’m wrong.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 10/5/2013

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Listens – Miles Smiles “Jean Pierre”

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Better late than never, right? That’s how I see it when it comes to posting Reads Listens Views. This Saturday version of RLV includes the usual football/non-football web content that I’ve been reading (or saving for when time permits) and some commentary about three things that have nothing to do with football. If you’re new to the blog, I post RLV once a week with the mantra that you might not like everything I post today, but you’ll at least find one thing that made it worthwhile.

I’m also breaking out the fantasy mail bag.

Thank You

There was a time in my life where my work life was so busy I might have had eight hours in a 70-hour week to sit my desk and do focused work. Fast forward 15 years and the situation has flip-flopped. Either way, time whizzes by and my window to interact with readers has narrowed lately. Regardless of how these opportunities will ebb and flow I want to thank you for reading my work at the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, Footballguys, and Football Outsiders every week. If you’re new to my work, check out this blog and the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

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If you want to know the ins and the outs of rookie skill players as early as April 1 with a level of detail that is more comprehensive than anything available then this 1200-page pre-draft publication is a must-buy. The RSP one-part 200-page draft magazine bookmarked for easy reading and other-part 1000-page tome that shows all the work to make the front half insightful: grading checklists for each player according to his position, a glossary that defines the grading system and each thing I score, and all my play-by-play notes on each player. I show my math for even the most diehard, nut-job – and I have plenty of them (they’re my kind of people).

You also get another 150-200 page post-draft document that updates rankings based on player fit with his new team, tiered dynasty rankings, and draft value analysis based on dynasty drafts. This RSP will help you this year, next year, and often times the year after in you dynasty drafts, re-drafts, and the waiver wire. Knowledge is power and you’ll be able to see the signs a little sooner when a player is poised for a breakout.

Past issues (2006-2012) are available for $9.95 apiece and I donate 10 percent of every RSP sale to Darkness To Light, a non-profit whose mission is to prevent and address sexual abuse in communities through training people to be aware of the dynamics, the stats, and how to help victims of this crime. As football fans who send our children to school, sports camps, churches-synagogues-mosques, it’s important that adults understand how to address this issue so they aren’t negligent (legally or morally) due to ignorance. Download the 2013 RSP Today

Wisconsin runner Melvin Gordon is a player I look forward to studying. Here's a nice snapshot of him in action. Photo by Han Shot First.
Wisconsin runner Melvin Gordon is a player I look forward to studying. Here’s a nice snapshot of him in action. Photo by Han Shot First.

Football Reads

Non-Football Reads

Views – Bob Harris Interviewed by the University of Arizona

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Five years-old, but still fun to see Bob in action here. You should listen to Bob do his thing weekly at Sirius XM Fantasy Sports.

Commentary: Dexter And Our Government Shutdown.  

A good thing gone way bad. Photo by Chesi Photos CC
A good thing gone way bad. Photo by Chesi Photos CC

If you didn’t know, I was a huge fan of the Showtime series Dexter. Like most Dexter fans, I became disenchanted with the final seasons of the show. However, I hung in there to the end – grousing about its decline every week. I have made the argument that the show’s finale was a good attempt that was doomed to fail because everything that came before it didn’t set the table well enough to give the last episode any sense of emotional credibility.

I believe Dexter went south after Deb caught Dexter in the act of murdering the Doomsday Killer. There shouldn’t have been a season where Deb tries to do some half-ass, homemade intervention that unravels to the extent that she gets sucked into his lifestyle and her life spirals to the gutter.

One of several ways that the show could have continued on a strong path would have been for Dexter to flee: the scene of the crime, Deb, and Miami. Fans would have preferred watching dual plot lines of Dexter creating a new life and identity in another state while Deb wages her own private manhunt for her brother.

Imagine Dexter and his son in a place as opposite from Miami as one can get trying to reinvent himself. Perhaps he encounters the doctor who helped create the Code and he meets a woman and falls in love like he does in the actual seasons towards the end. The difference would be that Dexter and the doctor come to the realization that he really wasn’t as doomed as the doc and his dad Harry presumed.

It would have been fascinating to see Dexter come to the realization that he was more human than he allowed himself to believe, doesn’t feel the compulsion to kill, and changes his life. Then the climax of the show could be Deb finding and confronting Dexter and the fallout from it. I believe this is what the show was trying to do, but the development of this type of plot line was so rushed that no audience could suspend disbelief.

I would have also liked watching Deb arrest Dexter and the final two seasons be the investigations that link (or fail to link) him to the Bay Harbor Butcher murders, the arraignment, and the trial. Introduce the psychologist who taught Harry and Dexter the Code and involve her in the trial or sanity hearings.

Watch Deb unravel as the public pressures from the trial and her role as the captain of homicide mount. What happens to her relationship with her brother? Does she come to understand and try to help him escape? Does she grow to despise him and cut all ties? Does she continue to have this great sense of ambivalence that destroys her and ultimately Dexter as he watches it helpless?

What about the rest of homicide who worked with him? Do they try some crazy under the radar deal where Dexter gets life in prison and uses his Code to assist the city and ultimately the FBI to track down other serial killers?

Whether Dexter is sent to a mental hospital or sentenced to death, seasons with a trial and the aftermath could have been great TV.  Instead, Showtime asked the producers to rush its development process so they could piggyback Ray Donovan to the series at the cost of quality writing.

We need to make elected public service really be public service. This requires greater sacrifice that they're making. Far greater. Photo by AC Flick.
We need to make elected public service really be public service. This requires greater sacrifice that they’re making. Far greater. Photo by AC Flick.

While I’m playing all-powerful, armchair quarterback, let’s look at this government shutdown. The fact is that private healthcare pays huge sums to our legislative body. If we truly want our representatives to be public servants, there needs to be a better way to enforce this commitment to the public and not private enterprise.

Think of the military. The men and women in our armed forces don’t have the same freedoms as the general public while they are in active service. If you ask me, the grand motivation for most Congressmen and women is money. While there is some degree of transparency with the personal finances of our public servants, I think the it would be worth exploring some way of requiring elected officials in the legislative and executive branches to give up basic rights as citizens while serving.

Pay them higher salaries like other developed countries do, give them great benefits when they retire from public service, but also make public service a real sacrifice. Eliminate any outside donation practices and election campaigns. Voting may be a right, but it’s also a privilege – raise the bar and force us to study the issues and watch debates. In 20 years, the public would become as savvy about debates and issues as they are about the pistol and the shotgun in football.

Require all public servants to live in public servant housing, use public servant based transportation, and require them to give up a large enough degree of financial freedom and decision-making in their lives as well as public privacy during this service. It may sound harsh, but if you want people who are truly willing serve our country and not themselves, ask them to make real sacrifices along the lines of our military – and then make the standard higher on a day-to-day level. Look at it this way, they aren’t putting their lives on the line like the military – at least ask them to put their freedoms on hold to ensure they aren’t corrupted by money.

Fantasy Mailbag

Would you ride or die this season with Wilson? Andrew Brown out. Photo by Football Schedule.
Would you ride or die this season with Wilson?  If you chose to ride or die, you don’t bench him versus Philly, do you?  Photo by Football Schedule.

Question I: From Shaun Higgins: I have a trade question in a dynasty league.  The point system is a standard league with 1/2 ppr, we start two RBs.  The following are my RBs:
 

  • Ray Rice
  • Frank Gore
  • Bilal Powell
  • Rashard Mendenhall
  • Shane Vereen
  • Brandon Bolden

I have been offered Bernard Pierce and a 2014 2nd round pick for Bilal Powell and my 2014 3rd round pick.  I am concerned with Baltimore’s offense and Pierce’s output this year.  Also, I’m concerned with how Powell will produce once Ivory is healthy (for however long that might last) and Goodson comes back.  What are your thoughts long-term on both backs?  Do you think this is a good move?

Shaun – I think the Baltimore ground game will get addressed with the help of Eugene Monroe, the tackle the Ravens acquired from Jacksonville this week. However, this helps Rice far more than Pierce, because the Ravens are committing more to Rice than they are his backup. Whether it’s in Baltimore or elsewhere, I think Pierce has a chance to develop into a fantasy RB2 in 2-3 years. Powell’s time to demonstrate he’s RB2-caliber for the next 2-3 years is now. Neither player possesses jackpot, long-term RB1 upside. I think Powell is the more versatile player and Pierce is the more power runner.

However for you, this deal comes down to two factors:

A) Is your team strong at other positions and you’re contending now? If so, Powell is better for you this year.

B) Is your team struggling and unlikely to contend this year or next? If so, Pierce gives you continuity with Rice and you gain a second-round pick, which could provide you more RB depth.

Question II: From Nathan Smith – Should I start Roddy White, Giovani Bernard, or Kenbrell Thompkins over David Wilson this week as one of two flexes in a league with this lineup? 

QB Michael Vick, Phi QB @NYG Sun 1:00

4

91.5

22.9

14.4

24

30th

53.4

100.0

+0
RB Ray Rice, Bal RB @Mia Sun 1:00

39

32.8

8.2

2.3

8.2

30th

87.0

100.0

+0
RB Trent Richardson, Ind RB Sea Sun 1:00

19

53.6

13.4

15.7

17.9

9th

100.0

100.0

+0
RB/WR David Wilson, NYG RB Phi Sun 1:00

50

26

6.5

12.9

11.7

26th

67.0

97.4

-0.6
WR A.J. Green, Cin WR NE Sun 1:00

10

79.6

19.9

13.6

19

6th

100.0

100.0

+0
WR Josh Gordon, Cle WR Buf W 37-24

41

47.3

11.8

12

17.1

31st

35.8

98.7

+2.6
WR/TE Brandon Marshall, Chi WR  Q NO Sun 1:00

8

81

20.3

18.3

19.5

3rd

96.9

100.0

+0
TE Jordan Cameron, Cle TE Buf W 37-24

2

100.8

25.2

26.3

21.2

7th

83.8

96.9

+6.4
D/ST Falcons D/ST D/ST NYJ Mon 8:30

26

17.1

4.3

-1.3

8.8

29th

8.2

13.4

+3
K Nick Novak, SD K @Oak Sun 11:35

5

44.1

11.0

13.9

9.9

14th

12.3

14.9

+7.6
BENCH

WK 5

2013 SEASON

WEEK 5
SLOT PLAYER, TEAM POS ACTION OPP STATUS ET

PRK

PTS

AVG

LAST

PROJ

OPRK

%ST

%OWN

+/-
Bench Doug Martin, TB RB

** BYE **

13

62.9

15.7

12.2

—

—

66.0

100.0

+0
Bench Giovani Bernard, Cin RB NE Sun 1:00

16

61.6

15.4

15.2

17.4

13th

63.4

100.0

+0
Bench Andrew Luck, Ind QB Sea Sun 1:00

7

85.6

21.4

20.5

14.2

4th

38.2

100.0

+0
Bench Kenbrell Thompkins, NE WR  Q @Cin Sun 1:00

25

63.1

15.8

26.3

13.2

16th

33.7

82.8

+28.6
Bench DeAndre Hopkins, Hou WR @SF

I thought White looked good from what I watched. He was officially targeted 9 times, but I would say that about half of those should not be counted as targets.  Passes overthrown by a lot, or in the dirt.  He had about 5 or 6 catchable balls maybe and he did well. 

So I traded for him. I was offered Roddy for Julius Thomas and since I am also a Cameron owner, I took the offer.  Wondering what you think about the fact that Tennessee destroyed the Jets last week in the passing game, and if you think ATL can do the same at home.  I think Roddy is due for a game.

Nathan, I thought White looked better, but not good. He still lacks the burst and strength/stability in the ankle to play his true game, which is about precise timing routes in tight coverage. Teams are still playing off White and the Falcons are still jerry-rigging its offense to use him. Until White can practice fully during the week leading to a game, I’d bench him. In fact, White suffered a setback in that game, so I’d avoid him this week. Thompkins is gaining ground, but he’ll be facing a pretty good set of cornerbacks. I think Bernard offers the most PPR upside, but he and Thompkins are pretty even.

However, I’m not sure I’d bench Wilson against the Eagles defense. If you’re going to stay patient with Wilson, this is the week to show it and use him. The Giants cut Da’Rell Scott and Brandon Jacobs hasn’t looked as good as Wilson. I’d go upside with your lineup and continue to start Wilson.

Question III:  How hard would you be looking to upgrade from Vick in 14 team redraft?

Rodgers owner is 0-4 with all kinds of holes.  I have a bench with DeAngelo, Powell,  Mathews, Mike Williams and Blackmon to try to pepper into a 2 for 1 or 3 for 1 deal.

If you can ply Rodgers from an owner with the combo of Vick and 1-2 of those players that you’re not using, do it. 

Listens –  A Night in Tunisia

[youtube=http://youtu.be/baMsQeQpUvw]

Futures at Football Outsiders: Texas A&M OT Jake Matthews

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft
What does the Matthews family have in common with the Marsalis family? Generational excellence at a craft. Photo by mll.
What does the Matthews family have in common with the Marsalis family? Generational excellence at a craft. Photo by mll.

 

Futures: Texas A&M OT Jake Matthews

By Matt Waldman

I heard a great story about Lawrence Taylor this week from my friend Sigmund Bloom. Thanks to NFL Films, the Hall of Fame linebacker and “trash talk” go together like K-Tel and “greatest hits” – complete with a low-budget, late-night commercial featuring a scrolling list of titles for your listening pleasure:

 

“Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, stick – you mine. You mine, baby!”

“C’mon baby, you can’t pussy-foot it up in there, you gotta run it.”

“Homeboy, you can’t play that stuff in here; you’re gonna have to go outside.”

“Let’s go out there like a bunch of crazed dogs and have some fun!”

“Son, you gotta do better than this…”

Remember, this is Lawrence Taylor/K-Tel. If you want to pay good money for trash talk, order from the Shannon Sharpe Smack Soundtrack. At the end of the day, the talk means little if a player can’t walk it, and Taylor could walk it in his sleep. Well, with the exception of the week a rookie tackle let Taylor tie himself into a mental knot.

It was early in the game. Taylor stood opposite the rookie tackle, wasting no time dishing it to the offensive lineman.

“Rookie, I’m going to beat you to the left,” drawls Taylor, standing over what he had to think was fresh fish. Without missing a beat, the tackle shot back with a question.

“Which left? Your left or my left?”

Taylor, caught off-guard by the serious tone and the nature of the question, paused for a split-second –- just long enough to think about it -– as the center snapped the ball. That hesitation was all it took for the first-year tackle to dispatch of Taylor on the play. Sure, Taylor probably got the best of this rookie several times in that game, but the interaction underscores the point that offensive linemen are often some of the most intelligent players on the field.

One of the best of these quick-thinking, quick-footed behemoths in college football today is Texas A&M tackle Jake Matthews. Yes, he’s from the Matthews family that includes Grandpa Clay Sr., Uncle Clay Jr., Father Bruce, and Cousin Clay III. We’re talking over 50 years of NFL experience -– 18 of them Pro Bowl seasons. It’s like a functional, football version of the Jacksons –- down to Casey Matthews as its LaToya.

Jokes aside, the fact that Casey even earned an NFL opportunity speaks to the talent of a football family whose best musical parallel is the Marsalis clan. If there’s a compelling argument for teams to mention “bloodlines” when filing a scouting report, the Matthews and Long families would be Exhibits A and B of a lengthier list of NFL bloodlines than you may imagine.

It may seem like an imposing standard for Jake Matthews to follow his father Bruce in to the NFL –- and it’s probably something we’ll never learn until his career is over –- but examining the Aggie lineman’s potential solely on the basis of physical talent, technical skill, and conceptual acumen for the game, the younger

Matthews has a strong shot of doing something his dad did 30 years ago: earning a top-10 selection in the NFL Draft.

Although Matthews hasn’t done enough as a left tackle to provide quality footage at this spot, there is one particular opponent he faced last year as a right tackle who is a good test for anyone on the left side, college or NFL. That would be Barkevious Mingo, who, like Lawrence Taylor, displays rare athleticism and relentlessness off the edge as an outside linebacker. Even as a right tackle last year, Matthews’ matchup with Mingo at LSU and the athletes at Alabama are performances that any NFL prospect at left tackle would be proud to have in his portfolio.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Blocking: Alabama WR Kevin Norwood

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Wide Receiver
Orange with pepper? Might as well watch a wide receiver in college football block. Right? Photo by Robert Tewart.
Orange with pepper? Might as well watch a wide receiver in college football block. Right? Photo by Robert Tewart.

To the casual college football viewer, wide receivers and blocking go together like orange slices with pepper or french fries dipped in a Frosty. Both seem odd, but they work. A receiver who does his best to make the position and the task fit together Alabama’s Kevin Norwood.

I can think of dozens of receivers at the college level that I’ve seen who are better blockers. However, sometimes there’s a play worth showing because it’s instructive. This run block in the Texas A&M game is a good example of gauging the correct angle. And football at its best is the ability to anticipate and address the angles of the opposition.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/38aI1BhEztU]

This is a great angle by Norwood. Watching the play at full speed you might think he overran his target. But if Norwood overran the safety, how could he make the correct decision to turn the defender to the sideline without seeing the hole that his running back chose?

As with any play call, Norwood knows the general direction of this run and understands that his job is to seal the defender to the outside. The Crimson Tide receiver takes an angle to the safety’s inside shoulder to force the defender on an outside path. If the defender beats Norwood’s block to the outside, there’s a greater chance he’ll overrun the path to the ball carrier.

If the defender doesn’t get outside, Norwood has an easier task of turning the safety to the sideline and driving the defender backwards. This is a good example of leverage by body position in the run game.

By no means is this a perfect block. Norwood is overextended as he makes the turn. His pads and head are down and too far ahead of his hips. At this point, he has lost control of his form and his body. The safety should have been able to grab Norwood by the pads and rip the receiver outside and then take an inside path to the ball carrier. Instead, the safety tries to throw Norwood inside towards the ball carrier.

While inventive, the safety also has to improve his skills at shedding blocks because this decision is the difference between a third and short and a first down.

As for those of you wondering about Norwood as an NFL prospect, I’ll have more about him in the coming months. I will tell you that he has the athleticism and baseline skills against tight coverage to compete for a roster spot. The key for Norwood will be consistency in the passing game and effort like this in the run game. Compared to the pack of receivers draft analysts will lump Norwood, the Alabama senior is ahead of the game in this respect.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.The 2014 RSP will available April 1 and if you pre-order before February 10, you get a 10 percent discount. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Futures: UGA QB Aaron Murray

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, Quarterback
Quarterbacks can be divided into task-oriented managers and creative managers. Find out which one fits best for Aaron Murray. Photo by Wade Rackley.
Quarterbacks can be divided into task-oriented managers and creative managers. Find out which one fits best for Aaron Murray. Photo by Wade Rackley.

Futures: UGA QB Aaron Murray

By Matt Waldman

The most glaring example of the difference between a good college player and a good NFL player is at the quarterback position. It’s also the position where draftniks and football evaluators have one of the loosest working definitions for the term “developmental prospect.” I’ve seen this term used to describe players judged as undrafted free agents who would be best served looking for work with the Canadian or Arena League just as often as I’ve seen it as a label for a second or third-round prospect.

But it was only a few years ago that the NFL draft had nearly twice the number of rounds, which explains why a third-round player and an undrafted free agent can have the same label. Considering that NFL scouting is still rooted in mid-20th century practices (I’m not talking about some teams’ uses of iPads and databases to track and store information, but the actual concepts and techniques they use to assess players), it shouldn’t be a surprise.

Georgia’s Aaron Murray is a quarterback I’ve seen projected by my colleagues at CBS as a third-round prospect and top-100 player, but whose game matches my working definition of a developmental player. The Bulldog’s four-year starter exhibits sound fundamentals, base accuracy in the passing game, and enough awareness to lead a winning football team in one of the best conferences in college football.

However, Murray also epitomizes the skills gap between big-time college passers and the pro quarterbacks fighting for remaining rosters spots in the NFL. This week’s Futures profiles Murray’s comfort zone and where his inner demons lurk. If the Georgia quarterback can expand his ability to translate what he’s learning in the classroom to what he does on the field, he could have a career as a capable backup. However, I think the third-round grade is an optimistic assessment.

A good way to explain this is a quick look at Murray’s former competitor for the starting job when they were freshmen: Zach Mettenberger, who played at a local high school no more than 20 minutes from the UGA campus. Mettenberger was the prototypical pocket passer in terms of size and arm strength and I thought he was the better prospect. After he was arrested on alcohol, disorderly conduct, and obstruction of justice charges during spring break of his freshman year, it didn’t matter – he was booted from the team and Murray earned the job.

I haven’t studied Mettenberger in depth since then, but I’m not the least bit shocked that Cam Cameron’s system is bringing out the best in the LSU quarterback and reviving his draft stock. Mettenberger has the physical skills and prototypical size most NFL teams covet and I wouldn’t be surprised if Mettenberger’s classification as a developmental player also earns the accompanying tag of “future starter”.

Murray’s developmental label might warrant starter consideration, but I think the fit is more team-specific for the 6-foot-1, 208-pound quarterback. Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers’ skills are proof that quarterbacks between 5-foot-10 and 6-foot-2 can succeed as NFL starters, but they are currently exceptions to the rule. I think Murray’s upside is more along the spectrum of Alex Smith and Jeff Garcia as the best-case scenarios with Bruce Gradkowski as a more realistic aspiration: quarterbacks who perform best in the classic version of the West Coast Offense predicated on short passing, rhythm, and movement.

Read the rest at Football Outsiders

Reads Listens Views 9/20/2013

0 Comments read Reads Listens Views
Koreans have "Han", Clevelanders have the Browns. Same thing. Photo by Erik Daniel Drost.
Koreans have “Han”, Clevelanders have the Browns. Same thing. Photo by Erik Daniel Drost.

Commentary: Trent Richardson Trade

Sigmund Bloom called me today on the heels of the Richardson-to-Colts deal. Two weeks prior, I was a guest On The Couch with Bloom explaining to him and Scott Pianowski that Richardson appeared tentative and wasn’t exploiting plays the way he should in the zone blocking scheme.

“It sounds like your observations were similar to what Joe Lombardi and company were seeing in Cleveland. You felt a tremor in the Force.”

Perhaps. But I still wouldn’t have dealt Richardson. He’s a top-10 pick. He’s capable of helping the Browns become a playoff team even if its attempt to land a franchise quarterback fails. I shared Chase Stuart’s piece on the numbers this summer. The point is about the insights you get from data and how you apply it. Trading away a franchise player seems like the wrong decision to me.

If I were a part of the Browns organization, I would have told Rob Chudzinski to change his offense’s blocking scheme. Use more gap-style plays. After Lamar Miller looked tentative against Cleveland in Week 1, they ran nothing but gap plays for Miller against the Colts and the second-year runner was far more productive and a good example of using data to your advantage.

Gap plays require less conceptual skill and highlight athleticism. Miller and Richardson are top-tier athletes. Just like Darren McFadden, they can run around you, bull through you, and hit a hole with ferocity. Limit the decision-making to one area and let them create in that smaller space and they will be more decisive runners. The Dolphins saw it work after making this switch within the span of a week.

The Browns decided the answer was to trade its top-10 overall pick from 2012.

Perhaps there’s more to the story with Richardson that has less to do with his on-field skill. We won’t know this right now. However, I’m with Grigson when it comes to his rationale for taking Richardson:

“I know the numbers,” Grigson said. “But the yardage is there. You see it when you’re watching the film. Obviously if you have a guy that’s your main threat in the offense, that’s who defenses are going to key up. Trent isn’t even near his ceiling. We’re talking about the third pick in the draft, and that’s not because he’s a ham-and-egger.”

The Colts have a gap-style ground game with traps and counter plays. This is a great match. And as Bloom shared with me over the phone, the Browns are paying a significant amount of money from Richardson’s signing bonus to ship him to another team in his prime with the hope of acquiring a (likely) mid-to-late pick from the Colts to stockpile and land a franchise quarterback.

A) I hope they can land that quarterback and B) They better be right.

The town already gave up two Super Bowl Championships because they tried to play hardball on a stadium. By the way, how many teams have built new stadiums since this ordeal that cost the Browns the Ravens? I get that the arguments for new stadiums are stupid and that the taxpayer often foots more of the bill than what they really get back for these owner-vanity projects. Cleveland was the city that was made the example or other cities to heed.

But as a former Clevelander, I can tell you that we have something in common with Korean culture. We have the Browns, they have Han (from Wikipedia):

Han is a concept in Korean culture attributed as a national cultural trait. Han denotes a collective feeling of oppression and isolation in the face of overwhelming odds. It connotes aspects of lament and unavenged injustice.

The minjung theologian Suh Nam-dong describes han as a “feeling of unresolved resentment against injustices suffered, a sense of helplessness because of the overwhelming odds against one, a feeling of acute pain in one’s guts and bowels, making the whole body writhe and squirm, and an obstinate urge to take revenge and to right the wrong—all these combined.”[1]

In some occasions, anthropologists have recognized han as a culture-specific medical condition whose symptoms include dyspnea, heart palpitation, and dizziness. Someone who dies of han is said to have died of hwabyeong.[2]

Although I am no longer a diehard Browns fan, I still have Clevelander Han and it won’t go away. It followed me to Tennessee (one-yard short). It might be following me to Seattle (Falcons playoff game).

I think the organization just made an egregious error in judgment, but for the sake of Browns’ fans they better know what they’re doing come April.

Listens – An Entire Concert For Those of You (NFL Owners Or Folks Who Dropped Out of The Rat Race) With Time on Their Hands

[youtube=http://youtu.be/j8xPaAnx5OM]

Football Reads

Views

[youtube=http://youtu.be/7jdyP1R0es8]

Non-Football Reads

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/LknbuE2dHGI]

Thank You

Sometimes it’s best to be brief.

Boiler Room: RB Todd Gurley

0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Players, RSP Boiler Room Videos (Short Form), Running Back
I make player comparisons by style of players along a spectrum of talent. The mid-range of that talent spectrum for Georgia RB Todd Gurley would be Cedric Benson. Photo by Dusty Werner.
I make player comparisons by style of players along a spectrum of talent. The mid-range of that talent spectrum for Georgia RB Todd Gurley would be Cedric Benson. The upper range? Larry Johnson.  Photo by Dusty Werner.

Todd Gurley’s style reminds me of Penn State star Larry Johnson.  For those of you who remember Johnson for his exploits with the Chiefs than the headlines he made off the field, it’s weighty praise. What they have in common is the agility of a 210-pound runner in the powerful frame of  225-230 lb. back.

A series I started last spring at the RSP blog is The Boiler Room. One of the challenges involved with player analysis is to be succinct with delivering the goods. As the author of an annual tome, I’m often a spectacular failure in this respect.

Even so, I will study a prospect and see a play unfold that does a great job of encapsulating that player’s skills. When I witness these moments, I try to imagine if I would include this play as part of a cut-up of highlights for a draft show at a major network or if I was working for an NFL organization creating cut-ups for a personnel director. Unlike the No-Huddle Series, The Boiler Room is focused on prospects I expect to be drafted, and often before the fourth round.

It’s incredibly difficult to boil down any player with just one play. Yet, if I need a play to add to the highlight reel that will help a team make a decision where to slot Todd Gurley on its board, this is my nomination despite the fact there’s an impressive display of long speed on a 75-yard touchdown earlier in this Clemson game.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/wIOlc8M91os]

There are several things about this run that underscore Gurley’s physical talent and conceptual skill.

The first is ball security. Gurley is a primarily a power runner and to do work between the tackles at a high volume a power runner better hold onto the football. You’re going to see throughout this unusual run that he keeps the ball high and tight to his body. There are points during this run where his elbow comes loose from his side, but considering what he has to do during this 12-yard touchdown run his ball security is praiseworthy.

Gurley has the ball tucked to his left side on a run to the left. Even when he has stop short of his path outside the initial block and make a sharp bounce to the inside the ball doesn’t swing loose from his chest. This is one of the most common errors of ball security I see with running backs. They can execute incredible displays of agility and balance, but the ball-carrying arm flies loose of the body and the passing traffic may not tackle the ball carrier, but they can force a fumble.

A good stiff arm or straight-arm isn’t just for attacking defenders or avoiding a wrap-up. Gurley uses his free arm to work around bodies in space. He places his arm on the back of the lineman to stabilize his change of direction and prevent a collision with his teammate.

One of the more impressive parts of this run is Gurley’s feet. For a big back with long speed, he also has some excellent short area quickness. Watch him stutter his steps to slow his path to the outside, keep his balance after establishing contact with the blocker, and then plant with both feet to bounce the run inside. This is a great on-field example of balance and agility.

As Gurley exits the hole, the ball remains high to his chest. While the elbow could be tighter, the runner’s ball security is good enough to avoid the rip attempt by the Clemson defender. If you look close enough you can actually see Gurley squeezing the ball tighter as No.11’s arm reaches towards the ball.

From the point Gurley declares a path at the line of scrimmage until he reaches the end zone, his pad level is excellent. I also like how high his knees are as he approaches the defender he’s about to stiff arm. Note that he makes first contact with the oncoming defender and at the same time squeezes the ball high and tight. Once the defender makes contact with Gurley’s body, the Georgia runner begins to drive through it with even lower pad level.

Whether it’s a sharp cut, a change of direction, a stiff arm, or running through a defender’s wrap, Gurley’s ball security is high and tight. For a back with his strength and home run-hitting skill, it would be easy for him to run with greater abandon. The fact that he doesn’t will endear him to coaches if he can continue to display this good habit in the NFL.

These characteristics don’t guarantee that Gurley will be a star as a professional. Cedric Benson had excellent agility and footwork and true power. He had years with good production, but he would never be considered an upper echelon runner.  Everyone loves Trent Richardson’s potential and while he has displayed that he is one of the more exciting young talents at the position, but he hasn’t proven he’s one of the better backs in the NFL.

What this play demonstrates is that Gurley has the skills to earn a grade within the realm of Benson and Richardson’s draft scores. The difference is that the value of running back has changed enough that there’s a 50-50 chance Gurley doesn’t find a team until the second round. You can ask draftniks more about that possibility. I’m not trying to be a junior GM from my home office – I have too many players to study for playing dress-up.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – available now. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece. 

You can begin placing orders for the 2015 RSP in January.