Posts tagged college scouting

A Game of Inches: The Talent Gap By the Numbers

April 16, 2014 0 Comments read 2014 NFL Draft, Matt Waldman, RSP Publication

Based on these numbers, less than 1 percent of the seniors playing college football will ever earn a second contract in the NFL.

Greg Linton, an NFL agent, shared this on Twitter this morning. There’s another salient point embedded in this data that goes beyond the message of “get your education.” It’s how data displays the differences in execution. It is a great way to see the differences between “good” college football and “good” NFL football.

Only the top 6.5 percent of all high school players compete at the college level. It means they are in the 93.5 percentile of all high school players. Likewise, only the top 1.6 percent of all college players enter the NFL–the 98.4 percentile. And that second NFL contract–the seal of approval that you’re a good NFL player–is reserved for less than one percent of all college players; the 99.06 percentile.

Viewing the numbers in this fashion, it doesn’t look like a big difference between the 93.5 percentile, the 98.4 percentile, and the 99.06 percentile. You’d be mistaken.

This may be a stretch for some–and it certainly isn’t scientific–but for the sake of entertainment, let’s presume that these percentiles were a reflection of a player’s success rate executing plays on a per snap basis. I understand this is not exact, but I think there’s enough to this idea to suspend disbelief long enough to make an overall point that is worthwhile.

The table below shows the amount of errors–or bad plays–that a player would commit over the course of a million plays based these percentiles that represent their standing as a college (93.5 percentile), NFL prospect (98.4 percentile), or NFL vet earning a second contract (99.07 percentile).

Plays	Percentile	Good Plays	Errors/Bad
1,000,000	0.935	935,000	65,000
1,000,000	0.984	98,4000	16,000
1,000,000	0.9906	99,0600	9,400

The difference between 65,000 errors and 16,000 errors is massive and that’s just the gap between a college player and NFL prospect who might last three years in the league. The NFL vet who earns a second deal commits 42.3 percent fewer errors than the prospect ad 86.6 fewer errors than the college player. And I’m talking about the average player on a team, which includes the best and the worst players on each squad–forget about the stars!

Even these numbers are a little harder to grasp, because we’re looking at a million plays. We won’t see any player execute that many over the course of a career–as hard as Brett Favre, George Blanda and Bruce Matthews tried.

So let’s break it down to plays in a season. Let’s estimate a player sees 40 plays a game for 16 games. I know this isn’t completely accurate for the college game or certain players in the NFL. However, it’s a more understandable sample size of plays for a season that equates to 640 plays.

Now look at the differences in errors/bad plays–it’s a lot easier to grasp.

Player	Plays	Percentile	Good Plays	Errors
College	640	0.935	598.4	41.6
NFL Prospect	640	0.984	629.76	10.24
NFL Vet	640	0.9906	633.984	6.016

The difference between 10 and 6 egregious errors per season per player is staggering–and that’s the difference between a young NFL player and a veteran. Those 41.6 errors per season for the average college player just doesn’t cut it for the pro game. This chart hints at why NFL athleticism is a difference maker in the college game even if the NFL skill and understanding of football isn’t always present.

In contrast, the gap between a prospect and vet is much smaller from an athletic standpoint, but the differences in errors is still large based on knowledge of technique, strategy, and consistency of execution. Again, this is hypothesizing that we’re discussing the average player at each level.

Now think about the top four players on each team–Pro-Bowl caliber players–that’s 128 players in the NFL. These players are in the 99.88 percentile in all of football–high school, college, and NFL. Using a sample of 640 plays in a 16-game season they would commit .75 egregious errors.

This seems hard to believe. In fact, you can see where this theory begins to crack at the seams because even All-Pros make mistakes multiple times in a season. However, how many of them are solely their fault and not something that can be explained by the error of a teammate? Not as many as you might think.

I wouldn’t throw out this examination because the numbers aren’t exactly right. The point is still a good one: The gap in talent is about consistency of execution and it requires knowledge, skill, and focus as the gap in athleticism narrows.

For analysis of skill players in this year’s draft class, download the 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the 56-page Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2014 RSPs at no additional charge and available for download within a week after the NFL Draft. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Reads Listens Views 1/10/2014

January 9, 2014 0 Comments read Reads Listens Views

This Week’s RLV: A jive turkey worth eating, appreciating Klook, a spec at sea, Cyrille Aimee, and tree houses.

Listens

[youtube=http://youtu.be/Nt7UBKF1BQI]

Views – Unbelievable Tree Houses

For more, including an invisible tree house, check out Higher Learning

Welcome

If you’re new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio blog, welcome. Every Friday, I post links to things I’m checking out when I’m online. You may not like everything listed here, but you’re bound to like something. It’s also my chance to thank you for reading my work and encourage you to follow the RSP blog and buy the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication.

For those of you new to the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, the publication is available every April 1. You can learn more about the RSP here. If you want to see samples of the play-by-play notes I take to write the analysis, you can find them here. And to download past versions of the publication (2006-2012), go here.

This month through February 10, I’m offering an early bird discount to those who pre-order the RSP.

In addition to the RSP and the post-draft publication that comes with it a week after the NFL Draft, 10 percent of each sale is donated to Darkness to Light. This organization is a non-profit devoted to preventing and addressing sexual abuse through community training in schools, religious groups, and a variety of civic groups across the U.S.

Here is what the RSP donated to D2L this year. According to D2L, the RSP’s 2013 donation amount was enough to train 250 adults in communities across the country. I will have an announcement about the 2014 RSP next week. Stay tuned.

Views I – Amazing

[youtube=http://youtu.be/MNCzSfv4hX8]

While it won’t shock me if he comes to his end doing this, I’d be floored if he’d desire to have it any other way.

Reads (Football)

2014’s Quarterback Conundrum – Greg Peshak’s analysis at Rotoworld on four prominent quarterbacks in this draft class.
The Modern QB As Designed By Bill Walsh – Josh Kasparek’s article at Field Gulls is not new, but it’s good and that counts most.
They Treat You Like Men Here – As a childhood Browns fan I have to post this as much as it pains me.
Troy Aikman: NFL Pounding Could Take a Toll on Manziel – Someone tell that to 220-lb. Robert Griffin for the 8 millionth time until he gets into his stubborn mule-like noggin.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/8htJVyavMvo]

Reads (Non-Football)

Burglars Who Took On F.B.I. Abandon Shadows – This N.Y. Times report and/or video is the one thing I’d recommend you to make time to read.
A Speck in the Sea – This was a fantastic account of a lobster fisherman who survives at sea after falling overboard in the middle of the night. Long read, but a close second to the link above.
Great White Sharks ‘Live for 70 Years’ – Sharks were my first obsession. H/T to William Del Pilar for the article.
Eater.com – This site sorts by city and has links that filter to local towns near he city. Good info on food scenes.
What Perfect Pitch? You Might Be Able to Pop A Pill For That – What I would have given 25 years ago for perfect pitch, but I wouldn’t have taken a pill for it.
Drummer Kenny Clark – A music appreciation lesson of a jazz great.
The Electricity-Generating Bicycle That Would Power The World – Fit a Herman Miller chair onto that bad boy and by the end of an RSP season, I’ll be ready for Tour De France.

Views II – “The Jive Turkey”

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfQ0QAiqSUI&start=314&w=420&h=315]

I’m considering this for next Thanksgiving with my fried turkey. I want to blow my dad’s mind.

Views III – I Haven’t Watched It Yet, But The Subject Intrigues Me

[youtube=http://youtu.be/6wXkI4t7nuc]

NFL Draft Scout’s Chad Reuter-Part III

July 27, 2011 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Despite the low success rate of first-round quarterbacks, Chad Reuter explains why drafting a QB in subsequent rounds who turns out even as productive as Matt Hasselbeck is a rarity. Photo by Matt McGee

If you thought ESPN analyst Matt Williamson’s path to becoming a paid evaluator of talent was unusual, consider NFL Draft Scout.com senior analyst Chad Reuter. The Wisconsin native lacks a football background, but he managed to transform a hobby into a job because of his tremendous analytical skills, sincere passion for the game, and a veteran scout’s work ethic. In this multi-part conversation, Reuter and I spent a couple of hours discussing a variety of topics related to player evaluation.

In Part I of this conversation, Chad and I discuss why he enjoys studying offensive line play, evaluating technique versus results, and balancing these two behaviors with the craft of projecting a player’s future in the NFL. In Part II we covered Reuter’s path to studying football as a full-time job, a defensive position that is difficult to evaluate, and why “instincts” and “intangibles” may not be innate after all. In this segment, Chad and I discuss sabermetrics and football, the mathematical logic of drafting a quarterback in the first round, and the importance of tiers when building a draftboard.

Waldman: There’s a growing camp of sabermetricians in football as well as the football media. While many understand why Bill Belicheck might use data to learn the odds strategic decisions, there are others who believe football can never completely embrace the Moneyball route. It’s obvious that you are both fluent in statistics and the craft of film evaluation. What’s your take on these two camps?

Reuter: I think data analysis is little more than a study of history. And I think you have to be cognizant of history when you are evaluating players — not just on the statistical side, but grouping characteristics with guys such as similarities in styles, size, etc.

But you can’t be a slave to it. Continue reading →

Top UDFA TEs

July 26, 2011 0 Comments read Players, Tight End

Iowa State's Collin Franklin has the pass-catching skills to contribute as a role player. Photo by Go Iowa State.com

Due to the lockout, 2011 could be more difficult than usual for undrafted free agents trying to make it in the NFL. Yet, there will be players with the talent, the skill, and the work ethic to enter a camp and make the most of their limited opportunities. This week, I’m profiling offensive skill players who I believe have the ability to develop into quality professionals if they have been training hard enough in this crazy offseason to hit the ground running. Profiles of these players are excerpts from my publication, the 2011 Rookie Scouting Portfolio, available at Footballguys.com

Will Yeatman, Maryland (6-6, 273): In some respects Will Yeatman reminds me of the Bears’ Kellen Davis and potentially Rob Gronkowski. All three are big, strong tight ends with fluid athleticism and soft hands. Davis has progressed enough in the Bears offense that there are rumors this offseason that starter Ben Olsen could be dealt away.

Yeatman is a former lacrosse player with quick feet. He makes fast turns as a route runner and he has enough strength to carry a defender on his back for extra yards. He’ll also lower his pads into contact and its this type of agility and flexibility for his size that makes him promising. He catches the ball away from his body and he’s a decisive player who seems comfortable on the field. He finds open seams very well as a receiver and he has a skill for creating space against single coverage.

Yeatman has limited game experience because Continue reading →

Conversation With NFL Draft Scout’s Chad Reuter-Part II

July 26, 2011 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Clemson's DeAndre McDaniel plays a position that Chad Reuter says has an underrated difficulty to evaluate. Photo by whateyesee13 http://www.flickr.com/photos/whateyesee13/

In this multi-part conversation, Reuter and I spent a couple of hours discussing a variety of topics related to player evaluation. In Part I of this conversation, Chad and I discuss why he enjoys studying offensive line play, evaluating technique versus results, and balancing these two behaviors with the craft of projecting a player’s future in the NFL. In this portion of our discussion we cover his path to studying football as a full-time job, a defensive position that is difficult to evaluate, and why “instincts” and “intangibles” may not be innate after all.

Waldman:Tell me about your background and how you got into this profession.

Reuter: I came into it kind of backwards. I’m not Mr. Athlete by any stretch. I was not a player. But I knew enough about the game. I think most athletes who get into scouting or work in a front office have the initial advantage of having played, but then they have to learn how to analyze what they are seeing when they are watching film. Obviously some of them may know their position, but they don’t know all of the positions. I came in backwards. I had the analytic skills and then I applied them to football.

I had a fan site called Packerdraft.com and I started in in 2000. I started applying my analytic skills to football in terms of what was being seen on the field, but also looking at the data side – analyzing trends and trying to figure out what some of the numbers really mean. So I started doing that and it earned me opportunities to work with teams doing some consulting. After a few years of that, I left my state government gig to do this full-time.

Waldman: What was that gig?

Reuter: I was a research analyst for the department of transportation. My education is in economics and public policy analysis.

Waldman: With that kind of education and position you must have a fairly extensive understanding of statistics.

Reuter: My job was more or less to ferret out information that was helpful for our decision makers in the building – not just putting a bunch of numbers in front of people. I spent a lot of time pointing to things that some people said had merit, but actually didn’t. Most of the time I was telling people that statistics could be misinterpreted and used to mislead people than actually used to help!

(Laughter)

I find it also being the same thing I do with football. Continue reading →

Top UDFA RBs

July 25, 2011 0 Comments read Players, Running Back

SAine — Brandon Saine is a terrific receiver from the backfield, but does he have the complete game to contribute in the NFL? Photo by Indiana Public Media http://www.flickr.com/photos/wfiupublicradio/

SpannPartIII — Chad Spann runs with the smarts, quickness, and toughness seen from the likes of Priest Holmes and Ahmad Bradshaw.

Chad Spann, N. Illinois (5-9, 198): Every year, I have at least 2-3 backs rated higher than most. Some of them are players who are drafted late or not drafted at all. Ahmad Bradshaw was one of them. Spann is another. He’s a fluid player with a high motor, a muscular bubble, and low center of gravity who can set up a defense to get an open lane and finish strong.

Spann ran through as many hits as any back I studied this year and he has a noticeably explosive burst from his cuts. He possesses a slippery but determined running style that has a lot of intelligent decision-making behind it. When I watched Spann, he reminded me of Priest Holmes Continue reading →

Top UDFA WRs

July 25, 2011 0 Comments read Players, Wide Receiver

Terrence Toliver has the size and budding skills to work his way onto a roster if he develops more consistency. Photo by Arete13 http://www.flickr.com/photos/arete13/4041805928/

Dane Sanzenbacher (5-11, 180): The two words that best encapsulate Sanzenbacher as a football player are “smart” and tough.” I saw the smarts up close at the Senior Bowl when Sanzenbacher was brought to Mobile as an injury replacement on day two of practice. He walked onto the field and received a crash course on the routes and the passing system that the Bengals used while he was still getting equipment. Fifteen minutes later, Sanzenbacher was consistently the best route runner on the field. He was also one
of the more adept receivers at gaining a release against press coverage in drills. The Bengals coach was effusive with praise with every rep because of Sanzenbacher’s precision and speed.

This skill with routes is nothing new to anyone who watched him at Ohio State. He understands zones and he knows how to fluidly run a route to set up the defense. Sanzenbacher also executes breaks with strong footwork and hip movement. He knows how to avoid jams at the line of scrimmage and his angles on breaks are consistently strong enough for him to get good depth and help his QB make an optimal throw.

Sanzenbacher’s pass catching is just as strong. Continue reading →

Conversation with NFL Draft Scout’s Chad Reuter Part I

July 24, 2011 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

Stopwatch — NFL Draft Scout Senior Analyst Chad Reuter and Matt Waldman discuss the science, craft, and art of talent evaluation.

If you thought ESPN analyst Matt Williamson’s path to becoming a paid evaluator of talent was unusual, consider NFL Draft Scout.com senior analyst Chad Reuter. The Wisconsin native learned about the craft of personnel evaluation from a decade of interactions with NFL scouts and general managers. Although he lacks a football background, he managed to transform a hobby into a job because of his tremendous analytical skills, sincere passion for the game, and a veteran scout’s work ethic. In this multi-part conversation, Reuter and I spent a couple of hours discussing a variety of topics related to player evaluation. In this portion of the conversation, Chad and I talk about offensive line play, evaluating technique versus results, and balancing these two behaviors with the craft of projecting a player’s future in the NFL.

Waldman: Are there any positions you enjoy evaluating more than others?

Reuter: I’m an offensive line guy. I love watching the line. I think it is one of the more under-appreciated positions in terms of scouting because it is not just about the physical or mental characteristics of the player. There is also a lot of differences with what coaches want.

Waldman: What are things the average person should appreciate more about line play? Continue reading →

UDFA QB Adam Froman

July 24, 2011 0 Comments read Players, Quarterback

Not a touchdown... — The most athletic QB in the 2011 Draft Class? Newton? Gabbert? Locker? Taylor? Maybe. But Adam Froman belongs near the top of this list. He can throw, too. Photo by algaedoc http://www.flickr.com/photos/by-ken/

This week, I’m profiling offensive skill players who I believe have the ability to develop into quality professionals if they have been training hard enough in this crazy offseason to hit the ground running. Profiles of these players are excerpts from my publication, the 2011 Rookie Scouting Portfolio, available at Footballguys.com

Adam Froman 6-4, 219: Froman is a JUCO transfer who really didn’t become a passing quarterback until he went to a junior college in Santa Rosa, California. He devleoped into an efficient JUCO passer and carried over that 60 percent completion rate during his next two seasons at Louisville.

There are other numbers that are even more impressive in the spring: 4.55 and 4.08. These times are his 40 and 20-yard shuttle numbers and they are among thebest of any QB in this class loaded with impressive athletes like Newton, Gabbert, Locker and Tyrod Taylor. Continue reading →

ESPN Analyst Matt Williamson Part III

July 20, 2011 0 Comments read Matt Waldman

San_Francisco_49ers-original — ESPN NFL analyst Matt Williamson discusses his transition from the NFL to major media. Photo by The Brit_2 http://www.flickr.com/photos/26686573@N00

ESPN analyst Matt Williamson is a former NFL scout for the Cleveland Browns. He agreed to talk about a variety of topics in a three-part interview at The Rookie Scouting Portfolio. In Part I, Williamson discusses an emerging NFL offensive trend with personnel and then explains the difference between scouting for a football team and a media conglomerate. In Part II, Williamson tells the story of his ascent to football’s biggest stage despite never playing the game. In this final installment, Williamson discusses his role with the Browns, his transition to ESPN, and the resources he uses to continue learning about the game and its players.

Waldman: What were your responsibilities with the Browns?

Williamson: I was equal parts NFL and college scout. I was in charge of the NFC West. I had to have a grade on every player in the NFC West at all times and be on top of all of the player movement for that position.

Then I had 20-25 schools: Penn State, Maryland, Marshall, West Virginia, Pitt, the New York area. More or less anywhere you could drive six hours from Cleveland. You put a circle around Cleveland – more east than anything – and that’s where I was. Then I was crosschecking on a lot of the other stuff, too. Everyone had their own region.

Waldman: You were there for the 2005 NFL Draft. Were you a part of that process?

Williamson: That’s the year we selected Braylon Edwards. We picked third in the draft. The war room leading up to the draft was amazing. I did speak my mind a little too much, but oh well.

Waldman: Why do you think that?

Williamson: Every GM or head coach is different. Some want more conversation about players in the war room than others. It’s something you have to get a feel for.

But it did surprise me how bashful some guys were. I mean, all of our reports were due well before we sat down to talk about these players so everyone knew what you thought of the player.

Speak your mind. The only way to be great and be able to sleep at night is to say what you think. You do that well on the air.

Waldman: Thanks. Without getting into too much detail, what was the basic scouting system like in Cleveland?

Williamson: It’s a standardized report that is entered into their system They still have them. I’m sure they can access my scouting report on DeMarcus Ware, Shawne Merriman, Pac-Man Jones, and all the guys I went to see.

Waldman: What were some of your favorite parts of the job?

Williamson: Like I said before, the war room leading up to the draft was great. So was game day. The intensity of it and being on the sideline was unbelievable – I really miss that. I also learned a lot from having the chance to drop into position meetings whenever I wanted.

Waldman: How did your time come to an end in Cleveland? Continue reading →

Matt Waldman & The Rookie Scouting Portfolio (RSP)