In-depth film analysis of NFL Draft Prospects With a Fantasy Football Lens - by Matt Waldman ©2025
With the help of numerous Footballguys.com writers, Bob Henry creates a weekly aggregation of camp news titled (simply enough) Training Camp Update. I can’t recommend it highly enough. The first issue is free to the public.
I’m going to quote some of the notes and provide my own take.
Carolina Panthers FB Mike Tolbert: Why I want to see All-22 analysis of Carolina this year. Continue reading
One of the most frequent requests I’ve heard from readers over the years is to rank players at their position across several draft classes. It’s an entertaining thing to read, but I’ve always been reticent about doing it. There are a lot of approaches I could take with the ranking process and I’m not sure if any of them will feel good enough to stand behind.
I could rank by checklist scores, but I don’t believe in ranking players solely by the quantitative criteria I used to derive a score in the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication. This is only half of the analysis that I perform. The other half is providing a detailed context behind the scoring that often fills in the gaps that the data leaves behind. Even then, there is a factor I call “The Great Emotional Divide,” which separates productive NFL players from massively talented NFL prospects. Another valid question is whether I should judge these players based on what I’ve seen from them in the NFL. If so then am I doing justice to the rookies from the 2011 class?
None of this makes me feel like I’m on solid ground. I don’t like rankings because they are highly fluid thoughts frozen during a brief period in time. Some readers may believe my business as author of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio is ranking players, but they’re mistaken.
My primary goal with the RSP is to profile these players and analyze their games. The ranking is perhaps the least important part of the analysis. It’s the conversation starter. The attention-getter. The marketing schtick. It’s the cocktail party, three-sentence summation of a complex subject that you need to learn or you come across as rude or socially awkward. As much as I value Twitter for attracting readers like you to the work I do, I’m not much on cocktail party chatter. Nothing wrong with it if that’s your thing, it’s just not mine if I can avoid it.
Ultimately, I only ranked players I studied during my time authoring the RSP (2006-2011). I decided to rank these players according to the potential I saw in them before they went pro. I don’t define potential by where I ranked them in the past, but what I think they could have (or did) become based on these factors:
DeMarco Murray’s 25-carry, 253-yard debut as the Cowboys starter bested Emmitt Smith’s single game rushing record for the team. As with most accomplishments of this kind, the performance tends to be the product of a confluence of factors: a weakened defense, a big lead, and talent allowed to get into a rhythm. With Sam Bradford on the bench nursing an ankle sprain and the Rams defense consistently folding early in contests, St. Louis was clearly a big part of the equation. But let’s not forget that Cowboys starter Felix Jones had only one game this year where he exceeded 60 yards rushing and the Rams defense’s worst performances against the run came at the legs of LeSean McCoy and Ryan Torain. If you combine the totals of these two backs, they only bested Murray’s output by four yards.
Murray may not go on a streak that Corey Dillon did over a decade ago during his rookie year or like Jerome Harrison’s 2009 stint with the Browns, but the third-round pick of the Cowboys is not a fluke. He was my No.4 runner in the 2011 Rookie Scouting Portfolio and a runner I saw up close at the Senior Bowl practices. He was the best back on the North squad and I heard two former running backs-turned running back coaches label Murray as a potential thoroughbred.
In a Q&A that I conducted with Murray at the Senior Bowl for the New York Times Fifth Down, I was impressed with Murray’s mature approach to the game and desire to hone his tools to become a better athlete and football player. He was one of those few players where his words and intentions matched his growth on the field.
One of the most revealing performances I witnessed during Murray’s college career came during his junior year Continue reading